it is 5:00 a.m. in washington, here's your top five at 5:00. more market volatility is ahead. a lot it happening the next 24 hours, we'll help you navigate it the midterms and your money. under armour under pressure. a bombshell story about the spor spor sportswear maker an strip clubs. starbucks on the record. the coffee chain ceo talking to cnbc about plans for its growth in china. call it the apple effect

we'll have more about that on this tuesday, november 6, 2018 "worldwide exchange" begins right now. ♪ good morning welcome from wherever in the world you may be watching. it's election day across the united states. control of congress should be decided today, though keep in mind there is some concern because of all that voting ahead of time and mail-in ballots that we may not know the full vote for a few days inside some districts. all 435 house seats, 35 senate seats, and 33 governor's rays wi -- races will be decided with the vote today the futures are flat we're coming off a 200-point gain yesterday keep in mind sectors like the banks, health care, infrastructure are likely to be directly impacted by the

ultimate outcome of today. by the way, if you're counting at home the dow is holding on to exactly a 3% gain so far this year let's check the overnight markets. in japan it was a good night the nikkei up more than 1% chinese market was mixed in europe they care about the outcome of our elections as well a story similar to our futures flat, maybe slightly down. germany is the big one to watch. italy remains the lone trouble spot there, down about 0.8%. here's the ultimate question, how should the outcome of today's election matter to you, your money and your investment strategy? what else is koe ey to focus on now? let's find out with mike bell. how close are you watching things in london with regards to

the election over here >> we're watching very closely it's key in several ways the first thing is if we get the republicans maintaining control of the house, then there's the potential for further tax cuts for the middle classes, which would, i think, create an environment where bond yields would go higher in the u.s. and probably globally on the back of that so i think it's important to watch from a government bond perspective. on the other hand, if you do see that rise in bond yields, it's not quite clear to me that's good news for equity markets we've seen equities struggling to digest higher moves on bond yields if you see democrats take control of the house, then you are stuck with this fiscal fade that is likely to kick in beyond the end of 2019 as we slow into 2020 i think that poses a potential risk for growth beyond the end of 2019. when you add it up it creates an

environment where no matter what happens with the election outcome, it's going to be important to be adding resilience into it >> let's dig into that more closely. there's been a school of thought if the gop keeps the house, that's not expected but polls have been wrong before, if the gop keeps the house and senate, that would be good for equities, but it sounds like you're saying the opposite because of credit markets moving it away in a negative way for stocks. >> yes in that environment, were you to see a tax cuts 2.0 come through, that drives bond yields in the u.s. higher as the market has to digest the fact there will be further treasury issuance and fiscal deficits widening out, the fed reacting to the stimulus for the economy that could come

with that, i think it's not clear to me that's good news for equities in an environment where you get the fed which already gradually is shifting away from accommodative mone ivive moneta going towards restrictive territory. >> when you say if the democrats take control of the house, that's what the polls expect, but we'll see if the polls are right this time. they weren't the last time you said there's a fade in fiscal stimulus. in plain american what does that mean >> if you think about groewth rates, it's a rate of change you had the stimulus effect come through this year, which supported the economy very well. in the first half of next year you will get stimulus as the

child tax credits come through beyond that you start to see a fade the concern is you're seeing a fed who feel they need to tighten monetary policy because of unemployment rates at low levels and wage pressures picking up the fed is shifting closer towards restrictive territory, at the point they get to that restrictive territory you will see that fiscal stimulus fade as we look beyond the end of 2019 that's where the risks started to build and why it makes sense. just becoming a bit more balanced >> mike bell, we appreciate your insight. we'll see you soon thank you very much. your top corporate story today, one that can only be called incredible, maybe a relic of a different age under armour under fire for some shocking new details about its corporate culture. frank holland has more

under armour's ceo says inappropriate behavior will not be tolerated this comes after the "wall street journal" reported that the company stopped letting employees use corporate credit cards to pay for visits to strip clubs. in a letter sent to employees yesterday kevin plank called that "journal" story tough to read and said the company would own its truth. the journal says under armour executives and employees would take colleagues and athletes to strib cl strip clubs and often would pay the bill the "journal" says several female employees are accusing several top male executives for inviting women to things based on their appearances kevin plank did issue a

statement saying under armour will work on a meaningful cultural transformation. brian, back over to you. >> that's a store you are i think is straight from 1991. back in the day when people smoked in their office >> very shocking allegations, also a huge company, about 14,000 people work there hard to believe this was kept secret for so long >> i know you'll be on it all day. frank, thank you see you in a few minutes toyota is raising its full-year profit forecast citing a weaker yen quarterly earnings rose 11%. toyota's stock is up marriott cutting its current quarter forecast for rev par, in plain english, revenue per available room and mylan shares are rising after posting better than expected results in the latest

quarter. the company telling investors it has no timeline for evaluating strategic alternatives in august, mylan set up a committee to look at options that stock is up just about 8%. also happening now, continued fallout from the recent concerns around apple shares of some of the biggest suppliers falling sharply in asia, all this on a report that the company told them to cancel plans for a production boost for the new iphone xr. pegatron is down 5%. foxconn is down more than 3% apple was a tough spot in the market today, falling nearly 4%. that follows that report by the nikkei news agency sparking concerns that the iphone xr may be facing weaker demand. also happening out of china, starbucks ceo kevin johnson is in country working to spread the

coffee culture around the world. eunice yoon has more on that story. >> i'm standing in front of the biggest coffee bar in the world. it's no surprise it would be here in shanghai, outside of the united states, that is the market that starbucks is focused on for the future. as you mentioned there is a bit of a trade war going on, souring relations between the u.s. and china. so i asked the ceo, kevin johnson, about that and if he saw impact on the business this is what he said >> there's always something going on in geopolitical relationships, and the geopolitical situation we learned to navigate those things what's happening now in the geopolitical situation, we're not immune to it but we're not seeing it impact our business. and we're staying focused on things that we do well

>> johnson said despite the trade dispute there's no reassessment of starbucks commitment to this market. these days the company is focused on delivery. food delivery is huge in china back in august the company talked about an initiative with alibaba, where customers can now go into a starbucks app and they can have coffee deliver to their homes within 30 minutes. johnson told me the way this is different is because they have reenneared the packaging here. for example, they have spill-proof tops, so the packaging allows the coffee to come to your door in the same condition you would want it as if you were here at the coffee bar. brian? >> okay. take off your journalist has the, and put on your eunice loves coffee or tea hat.

>> how is coffee business doing in an area that is known for the world's best teas. are you seeing this take hold? >> the coffee culture is huge. starbucks pointed out they've been here for 20 years they've been changing this culture this entire time there's a lot of people who still drink tea. even at this particular store there's a whole area where you can get tea as well. obviously it's something that's important, but i think the coffee will keep growing in popularity in terms of the delivery, just want to throw you some numbers they said since august, since that initiative was allowanced, 1,100 stores offer this delivery service in 17 cities about a third of the stores here overall. they expect that number will rise to 2,000 by the end of the

year so they do expect a lot of people will be wanting their coffee brought all the way to their home >> world's biggest starbucks, how far back does it go? is it like a mile long >> it's really big it's not a mile. >> that's helpful. how big is it? it's big >> i got lost in the back of it. >> it's huge >> before i talk to you next time, i should do a jog around it. >> or walk, saunter, it's fine no rush. >> with coffee in my hand. >> she's all jacked up on that starbucks. the final push today, if you didn't know it, it's midterm election day first iran sanctions in focus. they officially took effect yesterday wh yesterday. what could that mean for shipping oil forra in? we'll tell you what's really

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year but some of iran's biggest buyers are expected to ramp up orders again let talk with the world's largest ship owners association. peter we heard about unofficial iran ships, these ghost ships turning off transsponder transs. how many tankers of iranian oil are out there right now compared to a month ago >> thank you, thank you for having me this morning right now we have an increased uncertainty in the crude oil tanker market. one of them the u.s. sanctions on iran, another one being a lack of crude exports out of u.s. into china. right now you're right

it is a little bit of a mystery where the iranian tankers are going and what they're carrying. >> who is out there carrying iranian oil? the key is if you do not do any business with the u.s., you may not be a part of the sanctioning regime itself. we have iranian-owned tankers transporting crude oil going east, in the east, predominantly south korea, india, china, japan. we are also seeing national tankers from those countries importing oil because they never go to the u.s. there are many ways to deal with this >> the most incredible stat i've seen from you guys at bimco, china is an increasingly large exporter of oil.

the united states in august and september exported zero crude oil to china where is china then getting its crude oil? >> was we're seeing in terms of changing trade lanes for the crude oil tankers is certainly also in the nations where china now are sourcing the crude oil that they used to get from the u.s. the quality that china used to take out of the u.s., it looks like what they can buy from west africa so it is their go-to exporter in terms of sweet crude, west africa >> peter sand of bimco looking at iranian oil shipments, appreciate your time still ahead, your money, your vote. today the big day. what every investor needs to know about the midterm elections. a live report from washington

when "worldwide exchange" returns. but everywhere else... there are stores open late for shopping and fun as people seek gifts or even give some. not necessarily wrapped with paper and bows, but gifts of kind deeds, hard work and cold toes. there's magic in the air, on this day, at this time. the world's very much alive at 11:59.

welcome back facebook blocking more than 100 accounts on its platform ahead of the midterm elections the company says these accounts may have been part of what it calls a coordinated inauthentic behavior ahead of the election the company said it was notified of the accounts by u.s. law enforcement saying they believe they may be linked to foreign

entities let's get the latest on the midterm elections. tracie potts has more as the polls open across the east coast. >> they are opening soon now we are watching a number of these races. we have two-thirds of the nation's governorships up for grabs, two-thirds of the senate andall 435 house seats, some o which could tip the balance of power in washington. >> we are going to win this race >> reporter: from texas to arizona. >> we know what's at stake >> reporter: to florida. >> our folks are coming out. they're fired up >> reporter: candidates across america are reminding voters what's at stake. >> there's a big difference on healthcare >> she has voted against border funding. >> reporter: issues the next congress will decide 23 satellite seats could determo controls the house of representatives. polls favors democrats, but

record early voting makes those polls unpredictable. georgia's governor's race taking a nasty turn with racist phone calls and the attorney general investigating democrats for hacking voter registration >> you cannot be the referee and the player >> i'm not worried about how it looks. i'm doing my job. >> reporter: president trump making his final argument late last night in missouri >> our opponents have been on a relentless campaign to obstruct, resist, demolish, defame, destroy. you can stop them with your votes tomorrow >> reporter: former president obama in virginia. >> the character of this country is on the ballot. >> reporter: character on the ballot with division in washington driving the vote. and women on the ballot, women at the ballot box will have an influence on this vote >> tracie potts, big day today thank you very much. appreciate it. now a check on the other top

headlines, phillip mena has that good morning caes cesar sayoc will make his first court appearance in new york today. sayoc is facing charges for allegedly mailing more than a dozen explosive devices to prominent democrats, cnn and critics of president trump prosecutors will ask the judge to hold him without bail because they consider him dangerous. he could face up to 50 years in prison if you have duncan heinz cake mix in your pantry the fda issued a voluntary recall due to a possible salmonella outbreak. four types of cake makes are affected check with the fda for specific details. nasa reached a milestone in their mission to touch the sun the parker solar probe came within 15 million miles of the

sun's surface, that's a new record for the closest solar approach the spacecraft is flying at about 3. 15 mile million miles >> phillip, thank you very much. coming up, lego's big lawsuit. the toy company taking on chinese copycats in court and whipping. and samsung's new smartphone the company hinting at a different kind of device that you can easily put in your pocket because you can move it around we'll tell you that story. stick around.

the midterm elections officially under way what every investor needs to know about the likely outcomes and how they matter. u.s. stock futures lower traders awaiting the results of today's political contest. and is this a smartphone game changer samsung teasing the launch of what could be a massive shift in the device market. we'll tell you what it is as "worldwide exchange" rolls on.

welcome back happy tuesday. i'm brian sullivan we have all the stories you need to know to make you smarter today. frank holland has that >> here's what's leading cnbc.com right now. under armour telling employees it will fix its corporate culture after the "wall street journal" reported that under armour allowed employees to charge strip club visits to corporate credit cards. the ceo says the story was tough to read, adding that it was not the culture envisioned for under armour toyota shares trading higher in japan the company raising its full year profit forecast citing a weaker yen shares of some of apple's biggest suppliers in asia are falling sharply today on a report that apple told them to cancel plans for additional production lines for the new iphone xr.

brian? >> here's how your money and investments look right now stock futures are flat to slightly down. traders and investors waiting to see the outcome of today's election yesterday we had a 200-point valley despite apple down. in asia, japan was up. and in europe, slightly lower across the board let's talk more about the markets and your money right now. joining us on set is michael bappis you and i have spoken about all kinds of things. today it's elections how much do they matter for you and your clients

>> today is a big day. it used to not be this big >> the midterm elections were never a thing. now they're a giant thing. not sure why, but where there we go >> today, tomorrow, everyone is focused on it. long-term we'll forget about it unless something drastic happens. >> from a cnbc perspective, define drastic >> drastic is like a democratic sweep, or less people expect a republican people sweep as well. if we have a republican senate and democratic congress, nobody will care in three weeks we do have history on our side the s&p rallied up 16% in the year following the elections >> do you think it's less the exact outcome and more there will be some clarity and an outcome? >> i was going to say that people just want to know what's

going on people want clarity then we can refocus on earnings. >> tomorrow we will start talking about the presidential election >> that's two years away >> tomorrow, that's the narrative. it will be a mandate or some sort of -- whatever it is. >> we're trying to focus everyone on earnings earnings have grown. everything is pointing in a positive direction if we refocus everybody on that and stick to our long-term goals, we still think the market has a good 12, 18 months to run. >> earnings have been -- i hate to use the term spectacular, but up 24% year over year. history says those are pretty spectacular numbers. i'm looking at a dow that's up, eh, 3%. >> true. >> the market is apparently looking out not back >> there's a rotation also in the market we saw a lot of high-technology companies, low earnings growth

companies performing well. we are seeing a total rotation in the market. >> you believe that. after sort of the -- we get some clarity. we'll start focusing on earnings and corporate numbers again? >> i think for the next 12, 18 months the tax stimulus has not really hit yet. >> but there's talk if democrats take the house, as many pollsters expect, they will try to roll back those tax cuts or part of them >> it will still take 12 months. those stimulus are in play for the next 12 months minimum >> what about infrastructure if democrats take a house we're more likely to get an infrastructure package >> the infrastructure package will be great for america. we need that you go to other countries, our

infrastructure can subpar here at best. >> i walked here it's that bad we do need infrastructure fixed. that would be great for the country and everybody involved >> so the message here is tomorrow -- by the way, we may not get clarity because there's a lot of absentee pal lballots. eventually there will be finality and clarity to the mek shups. then we can expect earnings reports and stocks to go up. >> that's the message. michael bappis, we'll see you again. thanks besides the election, let's find out what else you'll be talking about today. time for the top trending stories. frank holland has those. >> is there something going on besides the election i feel like that's all we're talking about.

>> ask me tomorrow >> samsung is hinting at a big change to the smartphone technology the tech company teased fans for years about the possibility of a foldable smartphone. are we about to see one? samsung posted a folded logo on its website which seems to indicate that may be true. not a grade idea >> i thought it would be great for dudes. >> a hinge it will break sooner or later, and you can't see your notifications. >> don't you have the secreted desire to go back to the flip phone? >> i did have the smarttac. the sexiest man alive is

idris elba this issue of "people" featuring elba on its cover will hit stands this friday >> he will be stringer bell forever. >> classic role. maybe bond in the future maybe. >> just "get on with it. >> it was a great show >> probably the best show ever made >> i have to agree with you. lego has won an intellectual property lawsuit in china. a chinese court ruled that local companies copied the building blocks and miniature figures they have been ordered to stop production and sales and pay lego 650,000 in damages. >> you think it's a small story, but you wonder if this is an easing -- you wonder if lego could be a thaw in the

relations. fortnite players are now purchase nfl uniforms for their avatars. players can even customize them with any number 1 through 99 to complete the winning lock. not a fortnite guy >> are you an eagles guy >> definitely. >> have you met jim cramer >> we met. we discussed, we met, we bonded. >> bonded over the birds you have to step up your game this week. >> we got golden tate now. >> that was huge. from the virtual nfl to the real one, tough times in dallas. dallas cowboys hosted the titans, the former houston oilers last night on monday night football game was tied at 14. then the titans scored first in the third quarter.

they won by 28-14. i can see the headlines in dallas this morning. up next, the midterms and your money how the outcome of the midterm elections could affect your money and investments. and can the markets make a comeback this month once the midterms are in the rearview mirror we'll debate it. who can help me build a complete plan. brian, my certified financial planner™ professional, is committed to working in my best interest. i call it my "comfortable future plan," and it's all possible with a cfp® professional. find your certified financial planner™ professional at letsmakeaplan.org.

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good morning 5:41 in washington, d.c. the day is here, midterm elections. you knew that. polls on the east coast are in the process of opening some may already be open the question is this how do you position your portfolio ahead of the results? let's bring in trevor hanger we had you on before we had to cut you short. thank you so much for coming back you are doing excellent work on the likely outcomes of today what i find interesting is a lot of people all but expect that it's a house that had go back to the democrats. you expect that but you say it's only a 65% chance. >> yeah. you know, the democrats certainly have the odds in their favor today. the map is so big. so expansive in terms of the number of districts in play. the reality is that pundits are once bitten twice shy after 2016 democrats are cautiously optimistic on taking back the

house today. it's harder to put a higher set of odds on it. >> americans love political change in five of the last six federal elections, americans have tossed out those in position. so in two years or four years, will we be talking about this again? >> i think you can see the opportunity for change increasing and projecting itself much more quickly than in the past two years from now the senate map favors democrats in a way where this year it favors republicans. so two years from now you could see a flip-flop. if democrats take the house today and republicans hold on to the senate, you could see the exact opposite in 24 months. >> are 33 gubernatorial elections and a lot of morimporn

and statement laws that could affect the cnbc viewer we talk about oil and gas a lot. there's a big law, proposition 112 in colorado that could affect oil and gas drilling there. tell us about it and what the likely outcome is. >> that's an interesting proposition in colorado that rule would establish a 2,500-foot setback for oil and gas development in colorado, and that would basically put new development in colorado to a halt industries spend a ton of money out there, well north of 30 million, $40 million trying to make sure voters vote no on that today. colorado is essentially a purple state. we think industry has done a good job of positioning itself to get a no vote and a positive outcome for proposition 112.

>> that would effectively mean more oil and gas drilling in colorado, if it fails. >> yeah. if it fails we get more drills if it passes, you will see the industry pump brakes out there, which has read-throughs to the state budget >> this is the kind of work you guys do there. we talk about the keystone pipeline a lot we think it's a done deal, however there's a race for the nebraska public service commission district 1, a local election, which you believe could have an impact on the fate of the keystone pipeline >> absolutely. people forget there's still ongoing litigation of the pipeline route through nebraska. the nebraska pse voted to approve the existing route 3-2 but in that first district, the southeast corner of nebraska, the longstanding republican

commissioner there is retiring there's an interesting race there. christy yoakam is running on the democratic side. our head of energy research and our head of special situations research, they're both from nebraska so they're keeping a close eye on that one. if coyoakam can pull this out, h could shift the route. they would have to go back to the nebraska pse and g sshgs ps route approved another one of these local votes where a yes actually means a negative for something, california and talk about proposition 8. proposition 8 would limit the amount of revenue that kidney dialysis clinics -- basically a

price fix, i guess, for dialysis treatment there. there's been record spending against it i assume that's the dialysis i industry and pharmaceutical companies spending to kill proposition 8. tell us about it >> proposition 8 is a monster out in california. companies are spending north of 1$100 million to defeet this. it puts a revenue cap on what companies will be able to make for dialysis out in california they're spending gobs of money to get a no vote there you think of california as a state leading the blue wave. it might very well project positively towards a vote like this towards capping revenue and against industry they have outspent -- the industry outspent their opponents 7 to 1 so they put the money to work

there to get that no vote which would be positive for the ind z indust industry the odds are 3-1 that they get the no vote and get the win. >> that could pop those stocks some public companies that have an interest in the outcome of proposition 8 in california. trevor, thank you for that we'll see you soon still ahead, hitting the pause button stocks may be in a wait and see mode as the vote gets under way. and moonlighting as myth busters? that's what we're doing at "worldwide exchange. we'll debunk a popular market stock fact aunrod elections. stick around it's the longevity economy - americans 50+ driving 7.6 trillion dollars... of economic activity every year.

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welcome back andrew ross sorkin has a preview of what's coming up today. >> are you going to vote today >> i did two weeks ago by mail-in ballot >> there's something happening today. we'll talk about that, what that will mean to the markets you know who we'll talk about that with? the one and only anthony scaramucci returning to the "squawk" set we'll talk to him about his experience in the white house. his stake on president trump his take on the midterm elections and where this is all headed we'll also have a conversation about oil and where that is headed lots of conversations about the markets. >> and the midterms. i assume that's what you're referencing? that's happening >> i don't know anything else going on today >> it's tuesday. >> tuesday >> thank you very much now to some big stocks on

the move shares of pandora moving higher. surge in subscriptions, pandora adding nearly 800,000 new customers. avis under pressure today. they narrowed their guidance for the years. and shares of bookings holdings at a one-month high they reported better than expected profits in the later quarter. bookings plans to ramp up ad spending and bring more customers to its sites like priceline and open table if you're wondering how the futures are doing, they're down a bit. keep in mind, maybe today is all about the midterm elections. joining us now is the equity portfolio manager from dallas.

and i will guess that things have gotten less clear since the last time you graced us with your visit here on this set. you have the midterms, you have this trade war ramped up and the markets don't seem to be reacting to earnings as much >> i think we're moving into a period of unknowns we have tariffs, rates rising, elections. we're at the point where we will get some clarity on something. we'll have something from that perspective. so less uncertainty there. tariffs are a hot button, if we get past the elections, we may have some real resolutions with rates rising, with earnings slowing, the market is getting more tenuous >> i won't ask you to make a personal, political preference, as an equity portfolio manager, do you care about the outcome of

today? >> as an earlier guest suggested, since 1946 every year past a midterm election the market has gone up so in 18 prior periods we had a positive market. that's a good thing. tends to do better if republicans are in rather than democrats are in we just have to get past it. as you said, democratic house, republican senate is sort of status quo that's the expectations in the market at that point we'll just move forward. >> the historical stat is going back 50 years that the two months after a midterm or the quarter after the midterm and the first two quarters of the next year after the midterm, the next three months historically tend to be good. do you care about history, stats like that or is that a frosting? it's good to have that on your

side generally once we get past the midterm election year, you have a president thinking about his own election and he starts talking about potential stimulus it's something positive to look forward to in terms of economic growth >> would you go as far as buying a set of stocks like an infrastructure stock because you think the democrats may take the house and are more likely to get an infrastructure bill would you go that far? >> we would not. having said that, it's good to have more things on your side than not if that could help a particular name and we thought it wasproba lean news that direction >> how much have the midterms been out there, affecting equity trading? >> you saw what happened in october. markets were down a lot. it's mattered. it's mattered. >> the next time we have you on,

hopefully, we'll have -- could be a couple weeks we're told by some of these races, hopefully we'll have better clarity. safe travels time for an election-related myth-busting rbi you may have heard the stat that the s&p 500 has never been negative from halloween to new years in a midterm election year well that, as they say, is fake news data track drove into this, and it's been wrong three times. the s&p fell the last two month's midterm election year in 1974, 1992, and 2002 data trek found market pops with elections are generally fading a bit. many believe if the gop pulls off an upset and keeps the house, stock also rall

rise >> go out and vote today either way, "squawk box" is next

good morning it's election day in america is that why you're here, javers? >> yes, sir. >> that's why eamon javers was in makeup. it's election day. voters will decide the fate of 435 house seats, 35 senate races, 33 governors. we'll run through the potential market responses what it could mean for your money. the winning city for amazon's hq2 could be two cities. new reports say a split could be in the works we'll tell which you cities are rumored to be at the top of the list. and under armour under pressure following a bombshell report about corporate cards and

strip club visits. we have the details and the company's response it's tuesday, november 6, 2018 feel like i'm out on the green just reading this. "squawk box" begins now. ♪ live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box." good morning welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. let's look at u.s. equity futures. right now things are in the red. dow indicated down by 44 points. s&p off by 6 the dow and s&p turned in positive sessions yesterday. the nasdaq was down as apple was down again this morning it's indicated down by another 25 points