increases on energy in california if that money goes away then the -- excuse me it might be effective. and missouri and utah, michigan and north dakota recreational consumption in adults, those are great data >> closing bell right now. time for the closing bell. america heads to the polls in the midterm elections with wide ranging we will hit all of the ankl angles job growth is booming. unemployment rate at a near 50 year low it may not be enough for republicans to hold the majority the heart of hedge fund country, we'll break down the key race that smart money is watching ahead

i'm jane wells in phoenix, arizona. a record number of women are running from higher officer and from campaigning to fundraising they are doing it differently than men i'll explain what's behind the surge. >> wall street's biggest banks are telling clients how to plan for any possible election outcome. we'll talk to top strategists from mar begmorgan stanley closing bell starts right now. very good afternoon to you welcome to the closing bell. let's talk about what the markets are doing. trying to close higher for the fifth time they were looking almost certain to do that but have lost steam in the last half an hour or so we are up around 62 points on the dow. >> nasdaq really slipping there.

it would have been the first in the last three we'll see if tech can hang in there. energy higher today despite oil prices are falling to the lowest since april 9th. mike is looking at the election effect for the stock market. we have a look at how the outcome could impact the trade agenda breaking down potential fallout for hedge funds. let's start with you on what we think is going to happen to the stock market no matter what happens to the election. >> what has happened and the history is very clear on this and the history is clearly bullish. after midterm elections since world war ii the stock market has been higher 12 months later. on a shorter term if you look since 1950 from an october low before midterm election the s&p

has been up an average of more than 10% by the way, we are already up more than 4% but still it would suggest a little more of an upside bias to stocks based on the fact that just the election passes i think we want to be clear that first of all 18 is not a very large number to sort of base a lot of investment decisions on based on how things have gone. also i don't think anybody is trying to say that the election and the result and policies that come from it are causal. there has ban four year election cycle. it so happens that it has been strong i think the market will be free to do whatever it would otherwise do if you look at the last two 14 in 2010 the market did have upside and quickly started to contend with other global issues i did not define the next phase. >> i guess the biggest factors that effected markets have been trade questions, interest rate

questions. can they influence those two factors on their own >> this are ways they would influence them you have to kind of go down the chain and say this particular majority would mean what exactly for the pasture negotiating on trade and perhaps on fiscal spending and whether it will be more or less likely. i think there's so many links in the chain it's difficult >> so part of the theory is that in a third year of a presidential election cycle you start to see policy action because you want to get relelkted, right president trump has sort of broken the norm. so there's not a lot of stimulus you can back load to get reelected. that's why -- >> that's completely correct it has been really twisted around right now i think it loosened up too it was supposed to be a bad

year the second is the worst of the four if we get this it's not that bad of an idea we are at 3% at this moment. >> great stuff we'll see you again next hour. let's bring inmatthew to discuss what he sees as potential impact from midterm elections. thanks for joining us. before we get to the possible impact on the markets of the various outcomes most peoples consensus is for the house to flip of course to the democrats. you that as your most likely outcome. you'll sooe they are below what the polls would have you believe. so if you look at some of the bedding markets they will be lower than that. it is upwards than 20% lower

than that. i think when we talk about the outcome of the election we find a lot of skeptics when we taukt t talk about the polls i think we'll have to wait and see how it turns out >> so what are you telling your clients if we can't trust the polls? >> it's not that we can't trust the polls. it's more than you have to be ready to react to whatever the outcome is when it comes to interest rate markets where i spend most of my time and energy we definitely think that an outcome that is in line with the polls will be a little bitbullish we have to b

ready for surprises. that's kind of how we are seeing it if both houses are republican you're a 23% higher. what does that mean for rates and the u.s. dollar? >> i think if we -- i think if the republicans remain control of both houses you'll see an investor focus on tax reform 2.0. you'll see possibly an

infrastructure plan we think probably not so great for corporate credit as all of a sudden the focus turns to the federal reserve. how does the fed respontd to an environment where deficits will grow even more and the fiscal impulse is stronger than investors had previously expected >> it's so crazy that the trade at a republican victory would be the deficit busting trade >> he actually takes more of a neutral stance without respect to any outcome

if you look at his year end target it will take a lot to sway him off of the year end target even if you take into consideration some of the correlations the trade for the market seems pretty much sideways in his view he thinks that the worst of the selloff is behind us when you look at his scenario it is pretty neutral when all is said and done. >> got it. >> thanks for joining us much appreciated >> let's talk about the market trading on this midterm

election >> we have health care as a portion of our portfolio i think financial service will recover from the downdraft here lately because of interest rate increases. so i think it's probably a neutral environment. we'll have to see what happens in terms of legislation. >> if we do see a surprise result in both houses staying either with republicans or both switching to democrats what would be your top sector in either scenario? >> if the republicans actually held probably the top pick would be financial services. i think you'll continue to see deregulation efforts if democrats take the prize and i think you're probably taking more towards health care

not a lot of conviction in the tech rally >> it rebounded a little bit i think some of these will be quite crowded. he talked about health care. you talk about financial services if the republicans win. they could get kind of crowded kind of quickly. you have to be very nimble with your money and be very quick on how you get in and how you get out. you'll have to maybe enter that trade before you want to as opposed to waiting to see some of these results >> we discussed with matthew what is likely impacts on the dollar to be at the various outcomes do you think the dollar likes the republicans?

>> i think their currency would be lower i think the dollar would be higher that's i think the biggest influence that i can at least discuss without knowing the results. i think the chinese have made it quite clear whether you look at some of the areas they targeted were in key agricultural states, they understood the politics of midterms i say let's defer to them with regard to how they seem to be trading or moving their currency as the results seem to come in i think it's the easiest way to view thedollar

>> i think gridlock would not be a bad outcome for health care. as long as you don't have activist efforts are they vulnerable look at a stock. it has already sold off so much. is it vulnerable they have already really sold off in a lot of cases. i think there's opportunities. it sounds a little bit like a value argument but i think the evaluations are appealing on some of these because of the concerns about regulation. >> is tech in the eye of the storm either way >> a little bit. we saw that yesterday. say that theme will continue you know, as far as investing goes if you'll want to buy these you'll want to buy them on a dip and you have gotten your chance here if you like tech now is the time

and you want to keep riding that stren trend. >> thank you still to come here on the closing bell we'll take a look at how the trump administration's policies could play into today's vote and what it could mean for the trade agenda going forward >> they tell us the one election scenario he says will lead to a greater risk of recession. dow is up 108. stay with us here on the closing bell this is huntsville, alabama. aka, rocket city, usa. this is a very difficult job. failure is not an option. more than half of employees across the country bring financial stress to work. if you're stressed out financially at home, you're going to be too worried to be able to do a good job. i want to be able to offer all of the benefits that keep them satisfied. it is the people that is really the only asset that you have. put your employees on a path

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[ready forngs ] christmas? no, it's way too early to be annoyed by christmas. you just need some holiday spirit! that's it! this feud just went mobile. with xfinity xfi you get the best wifi experience at home.

and with xfinity mobile, you get the best wireless coverage for your phone. ...you're about to find out! you don't even know where i live... hello! see the grinch in theaters by saying "get grinch tickets" into your xfinity x1 voice remote. a guy just dropped this off. he-he-he-he. the winners ibm second positive day in a row after a reported caterpillar up 2% travelers up 1.3%. industrials are having a good day investors have been watching closely. u.s. trade tensions could be a key issue for voters during today's midterm elections. joining us to discuss from the election desk is you are contribute to. good to see all of you

how do you think the trade war plays for voters >> i think the trade war has ban real winner for the president. i think having deals with mexico and canada is something he can brag about at this point at the same time when it comes to this camera, when it comes to china there is bipartisan consensus. you want to see what happens in the farm states. are they going to turn on him? there's no indication it is going to happen. it is something to see if they are upset by what's happened to a lot of the commodities >> how high up if it was the soul issue how

would the president's party fair >> it is an old cliche about elections in this country. i think in this particular year it might be a little bit lower down the list. i think it is an unusual year. a lot of this is a referendum on donald trump personally. the wlouts hite house counting e economy being good, jobs number being good they think is an indication there will be a red wave that tops the so called blue wave at the polls today we'll see whether it plays out it is a president who decided he is willing to take short term pain in order to get that through and realign it globally. he is willing to have wall street traders take a little ping in order to realign the economy long-term. >> and traditionally republicans have been the party of free

trade it may be more appealing to the democrats it is something we have heard from bernie sanders for instance how does the new look of congress impact the president's trade agenda, if at all. >> i think it will be more difficult for the president to win approval of that new trade deal with canada and mexico. they will say he needs to make a better deal. it is not that different from the old. in terms of the trade agenda i had a slightly different view. i think the issue has not so much helped trump as failed to help democrats democrats have been hoping that the soybean farmers would turn

it is the democratic inbut because politics have become so culturally based those republicans are sticking with kevin cramer all of the polls indicate so they sticking with republicans >> if there was one big take away it was the competing for the middle ground swing voter wasn't what decided to votes it was turning out the base. does that apply more or less giventhat these are legislatur as opposed to an either/or

choice that itwas. it has certainly been a key -- to see the numbers as high as they are certainly speaks to how much is at stake both parties believe is at stake at this point. >> and what we have seen during the course of the campaign is that democrats for most of the year have had the advantage and enthusiasm as a consequence president trump aggressively barn storming that it is up and on par with democrats. how it translates into turnouts we don't know. we'll find out tonight the republicans have rallied and begun to match some of the

democratic intensity >> i'm curious what all of you guys think coming up at the end of november we know they are going to talk trade. we know investors are paying attention. how were the chinese likely to see the results of the election? does it give the chinese more leverage walking into this meeting? >> i think the chinese might believe it does. it helps them determine what they want to do. i think the chinese are looking at this very carefully the question is whether it changes the president's approach at all the president might be taking the same approach win or lose here no matter what happens. >> and ultimately as we were saying earlier even if democrats

do take control of the house there is consensus china is a problem. you don't necessarily get that much of a change chinese will perceive him as breaker. when it comes to that they will want him to be stronger. the farmers are not necessarily going to vote against trump even though he is imposing trade tariffs that are hurting them. it speaks that part believes there is a goal beyond the tariffs. so it is a tactic that ultimately is president wants to go to. >> in 2020 donald trump will be on the ballot and continued trade war unsettles markets and has an economic effect at home he is going to have a greater interest than he has right now in that uncertainty and volatility >> i was going to say we will be there with the president at the end of the month

that will be a fascinating meeting. there is a lot at stake there. a lot to look forward to for the rest of this administration. >> the meeting and the dinner, we'll watch all of it. thank you. >> a lot still to come in the next 12 hours. >> the results tomorrow will indicate how much leverage he has. thank you very much. >> you bet >> tune into a special edition of squawk box tomorrow morning >> from one trio to another. >> yes 35 minutes to go before the bell still have a rally on the hands. s&p up >> we have all of the groups highe higher. >> still ahead, a look at why the gubernatorial race means so

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hello everybody. here is what's happening at this hour hundreds of parents are awaiting news after 79 children were kidnapped from a school. the abduction took place before dawn authorities say the children, principal and driver were talken into the bush outside of town and the army has started search that area. >> surveillance video showing the moment a truck slammed into a super market in russia police say the truck was coming down a hill when the driver swerved off the road one woman shopper was injured and sent to the hospital authorities in mississippi assessing the damage left bay possible tornado this was the scene after a powerful storm moved through that area monday night knocking down trees and power lines so far a number of power outages as well as a gas leak have been reported you see that suv it is being chased by the police cars behind the wheel is an

11-year-old boy. what's more? this is the third time he has stolen the family vehicle and lead police on a high speed chase. the mother said he was upset because his play station had been tang away >> he is totally safe. it is the third time i don't know high the keys maybe. >> i was about to say particularly if you're taking away his play station. the chances are he will look for something else >> hide the keys >> thank you vu much >> see you next hour stocks are higher. bob is looking at the big moves here and we are up at the nasdaq what stands out, bob >> we are in rally mode on a number of sectors. i'm very encouraged. oil collapsed. oil stocks are holding up really

well exxon mobile is up today it would have happened a few months ago exxon would have been down 3% or 4% it was 114 a few days ago. today it is 125. sit a remarkable come back for a horrible month ibm had caterpillar. most of the big industrial numbers. watch the banks after the election >> all right thank you. we will do soment. >> hi. weet, you know, i put my stuff in chips have been one of the worst

and beaten down but today we are seeing a nice advance and they are actually the best performers all of the stocks are in correction you're seeing the big swings on the results. finally, the fang trade had been strong this morning. it was giving us a lift. it looks like it is coming back in it is one of those days you're seeing little moves back and forth. back to you. >> thank you very much for that. we are willing to of course midterm election day and how to talk wealth managers ahead of the final polling results. very good afternoon to you both. what would be the worst outcome

in these elections and why >> if the democrats claim the clock and take the senate and take the house by a big number the market is not going to like that we could all think of what we want as president trump as the man. there is also president trump the agenda the stock market very much likes his azwraegenda. >> do you agree with that david? >> first of all i don't think it's a likely outcome. i think it will be a republican sweep or democrats take the house. i'm not sure how it plays out in terms of the stock market. if the republican sweep i think you'll see more physical stimulus it means a higher dollar and higher interest rates. it will pump up the economy it may mean more of a crash later i think it's kind of a mixed stock market

i think it's a po poz 2i6. >> do you i had you yes. i think he will fee feel so maub you'll get a bigger tariff the general elections are nrt in

20 it will have an ek on global think if no if the do request think they are looking at passing an instra structure? >> it probably won't be the full boat he was talking about prior to his election. clearly we need to have changing in immigration laws. we need some kind of comprehensive reform there it will be more easily done if the republicans control the senate and the house the problem is you're not going to have 60 republican senators but it still makes a smoother path to get certain things passed i don't think the market wants

to see the agenda threatened or stopped but it would not be a positive one other point i want to make briefly, we may not know tonight. if the house elections are close they will be quite a few districts that it may go to recounts, have litigation involved, you know, not all 435 congressional districts will be resolved tonight it is a super close election you'll have uncertainty in the fact we are not going to know how it turns out >> i think a number of them are very engaged our research suggests it could be quite damaging. we noticed that republicans tend to feel much better. if you go back to when obama was

president it was the other way around we also know people toend invest in stocks when they feel good about the country. we need well people find it very hard to put politics aside >> you think there is less investing? >> yes i think in both cases we are looking through very different lenses it is quite clear republicans think it is a better economy than democrats do right now. democrats thought it was a better economy than republicans did beforehand it has been a pretty good economy and improved for a long time look at people pulling money

into bit line. investors have shied i way. >> thank you very much >> thank you >> we have just over the high of the day is up weighs in on how the market could ve act. >> and we are watching more than the election results this afternoon. we have earnings, results you can watch from papa john's and more we'll tell youheey nbe t kumrs to watch straight ahead. ♪

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leverage buy outthis year based on semantics it is up 12.3% on the back of this it does have history in this area wall street journal saying the company will no longer reimburse strip club visits on the company cease dime saying our teammates deserve to work in a respectful and empowering environment. under armour is not letting go of any executives a lot of

ones that are mentioned in the story including mr. plank's brother have already left the company. it comes at a weird time because the between is focusing on profit blt they are making cultural changes. it is certainly a setback. we learned that the business and stock ran up to business highs afterward. >> yeah. this fees incredibly late. >> i think it seems extraordinary. >> i think that's the right question be sure to catch our interview we have adidas ceo >> he told you last time how to pronounce this company >> adidas.

>> he is coming on he told you how to pronounce it. >> and know and you were right >> can you ask him for an update >> it's not high on my priority list but it is on mine. stocks are higher. we are following this rally for you. coming up you'll hear from the man by hiehind the make america great again. plus up next we'll explain why one governor's race skrould a big imctpa on hedge fends. we'll be back on closing bell in a couple of minutes.

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stocks in the green on wall street the nation awaits the results of the midterm elections. one could impact the future of the hedge fund industry. we have details from connecticut, leslie. >> reporter: that's right. voting continues behind me at the town hall. it is known as the hedge fund

capital of the world there are 750 hedge funds. it is a budget deficit of about $4 billion in focus today is the election for governor two businessmen are running on the democrats side now, in an interview with cnbc the head of the state's hedge fund association told us that the industry is really split between red and blue >> maybe the new regime will take a closer look at the personal income tax rates that have been applied here and maybe if we are lucky we'll have an

opportunity to start to roll that back. it is unrealistic that we'll do that entirely. hopefully it will start a new conversation about that. in an interview he said he plans to slash spending in order to pay for the cuts now, the race is expected to be a close one coming into today. the polls had the candidates really neck and neck we'll see those results really trickle out as they close at about 8:00 p.m. eastern time, guys >> do the hedge fund industry, do they ever have an impact in this race? do they pour money behind candidates because it matters so much since they on base there? >> we took a look at some of the

campaign finance records not really a noticeable difference a lot of people that run here are self-funded. it is kind of small little amounts from individuals it is hard to make an exact assumption of how the hedgefund managers when it comes to campaign finance >> okay. thank you very much. we have got just under ten minutes left until the close the dow is higher by 106 points. we are up for all of the major indexes. up next we'll preview the earnings set to be released after the bell

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i am a techie dad.n. i believe the best technology should feel effortless. like magic. at comcast, it's my job to develop, apps and tools that simplify your experience. my name is mike, i'm in product development at comcast. we're working to make things simple, easy and awesome. >> welcome back. kate rogers will deliver papa john's >> i caught myself >> what can we expect? >> we expect it to be a tough

third quarter for papa john's. it will be same store sales in north america. that number expected to fall 10.7%. it is a bit more than the 10.5% drop another will be the amount of cash it spent so far and on legal fees it is as papa john's is in feud who is the company's founder papa john's allocated for a franchise. back over to you >> all right thank you. let's get to frank for what to expect from match group, frank. >> strong year for match up more than 62% it is forecasting more than 80% increase revenue forecast not quite as optimistic 438 million, a 27% increase.

the best known tinder has been the driving growth and match reported 3.8 total users almost doubling the total from the previous year. back to you. >> let's get to more on what to expect >> investors want to know how the online real estate firm is holding up analysts will be on the look out for any commentary into the buying and selling of homes. wall street is still not sold on whether this new vertical will be a big driver of profits especially if interest rates continue to rise overall analysts are expecting the earnings growth to decline rev fl revenue is expected to rise double digits. >> okay. thank you very much. we look forward to seeing you

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your new brother-in-law. you like him. he's one of those guys who always smells good. his 5 o'clock shadow is always at 5 o'clock. you like him. your mom says he's done really well for himself. he has stocks and bonds your dad wants to go fishing with him. your dad doesn't even like fishing. you like your brother-in-law. but you'd like him better if you made more money than he does. don't get mad at your brother-in-law. get e*trade welcome back stocks up about 0.6% on the s&p. a nice little rally taking us to the highs of the session

there is the chart for the s&p we have gained back to the highs. here are the four indexes. 0.6% for the dow and the s&p the russell is lagging a little bit today. either way a nice picture. oil not so nice to show that over one month it is continuing to climb today over 2% of a decline if we look at the sector's performance it is down 16% over one month. exxon was up he said what happened here we just spiked rather notably. we got a rally and we have 500 plus points in the dow sings the bottom on friday

we have historic highs from mcdonald's, ross stores, coke, nordstrom. i'm encouraged we have had reation and into other sections. we'll be watching the midterm results tonight. that does it for the first hour of the closing bell. back to you. here is how we are finishing up the day on wall street investors buy as voters head to the polls on this midterm election day dow jones closing up 176 points. s & p 500 up a pretty broad based rally

most ending higher energy popping back into the green. the nasdaq rose .06% the s&p and the dow have been since last week. russell 2000 up half a percent we are looking at politics and profits. we are covering the midterm election >> let's kick it off with you on politics and your money. >> let's start with this idea that's little bit optimistic for the market what that has stock market done after a midterm election the answer is it has done pretty well go back to 2006. stock market this is 12 months after election day. from election day out a year

under george bush 6.95% under president obama back in 2010 4.52%. big question is this going to be the same trend here or is it going to be something very different this year under president donald trump that's a big question to watch the market has traditionally done well in the wake of a midterm election year. the other interesting question is that's how the it effects the market how does it effect the election? that's one we don't necessarily know the answer to if you look at past years you see that the market performance has been pretty good, right? 13.62% increase. this is election year to date up to the month before the election so the market going into this midterm in 2006.

that was pretty good george bush lost the house of representatives. barack obama in 2010, 12.7% increase in the market that year up to election day what happened to barack obama in 2010 democrats lost the midterm president trump up just 2.4% on the s&p year to date going into the monday before election day so a big strong gain in the stock market did not help the previous two presidents. the stock market increase of 2.42%. there is not a big stock market boost to help them it looks like it doesn't help you anyway >> that's good historical perspective. thank you. >> you bet >> joining us to talk about what we saw we have kerry firestone biggest winner on the dow is ibm. the biggest loser is nike.

buying into the midterm election rumts, what does that tell you >> i think there's a little bit of jockying. that is what history says but it also has gotten the index right up into if zone where it is kind of a critical juncture it is right not middle of this area where it traded a tremendous amount this year and also right before it fell off a cliff as earnings season got going. i think the market has been quietly trying to repair itself. i think you'll see it released to see if in fact this test can be passed basically. you can get true follow through buying after we have gotten above that october 11th was the first way down 27 or 28 was the level we went down from there to up

from there >> the other messages are clearly we have had a big pullback coming into these but that mean there's going to be a rally? go not at all. two year note here, i think the uncertainty is all still with us you know, the general fundamental but stocks came down 7% in october. the question is that a change of

trend or buying opportunity, the market is about to tell us all of those things. the market is up 65% of the time in any 12 month period it is not necessarily decisive >> do you expect history to repeat itself and for the market to rally post midterm elections by the end of year zbli haven't been with you guys certainly. i wanted to say shout out to the red sox. i want to draw an analogy. we all live based on experience and expectations if your team wins 108 games you would expect

thoem tame an so heerp are that that has we have low sbroes rates and a tax cut coming it all came to be and stocks went higher. >> so here we are with many stocks 33% of the s and p is down 20% or more from the 2018 high do we feel as if these prices are low enough is it time to buy? the answer of course is it depends. you know, it depends if the

company can pass through costs, if we have the type of environment, strong balance sheets and if the market is able to find a place to rest and go up from here very very rarely is there a v-shaped bottom. so it's about when investors back comfortable that the housing stock is down 30%. if it is time and we are comfortable i think it's okay to nibble >> thank you for that. thank you for your extreme partisan ship but in a sporting sense. tech stocks go to boost earlier today. it is over the past month thanks to volatility and disappointing earnings and just a general pull back from a strong performance this year. turning the corner, it wasn't the best performing sector

>> yeah. it did come back from a slump. >> i don't think you can count them out if you -- if in a correction the discipline is let's look at the stocks that had the better balance sheets that are in an up trend and maybe they have gotten overdone it kind of brings you to a lot of big growth stocks. i don't necessarily think we are in this kind of long lasting shift from one investing to another. it would be very unusual to have the bull market continue under entirely new leadership. value stocks -- deep value stocks start to perform man we have had right now i think there's a chance when you see apple finally kind of give that up it's more of the latter part of the process the market kind of correcting excess than it is the beginning of one >> we should note am did go up a percent today. it did post gains except for

netflix. where do you stand >> it had been the market leaders. >> yeah. well, i would agree with mike. it is very hard to envision a market continue to go higher without them participating they are some of the biggest companies in the s&p they represent enormous growth relative to earnings potential of the market. if we look at other groups that have moved lately, you know, whether it is a name such as boeing, caterpillar, names that have started to move higher they not cheap stocks we are not talking about value as ten times earnings. there are an awful lot of names. so i think it's more likely that if the market goes down the tech stocks will underperform if the market goes higher i suspect they will outperform

one other point i would like to make, two points, is that what worries the market today seems to be tariffs, right it is an issue that has nothing to do with the election it is executive power. it is really in the president's control and interest rates and that's a fed issue, not above the election people have talked about how the market usually goes higher i certainly hope it does if it's weighing on the market are these other two factors i'm not sure that the results of this election will make a difference >> we have earnings out. hey. >> earnings of 15 cents, refr knew of $150 million which is in line with wall street expe expectations announcing a $200 million buy back it raised revenue guidance the company says we put our pricing structure to work and product initiatives to fuel

growths. another is gms which accelerated to 20.8% it is higher than wall street was looking for. the stock is up by 11% in extended trade back to you. >> thank you very much for that. >> it's up 135% in the last 12 months the set up wasn't bad. >> it is kind of along the lines. the stocks have been the growth favorites. they pulled back sharply now the market here, by the way, surprising to hear this is a candidate. i think it is thought of as a much earlier phased company. >> yeah. really helpful if you need to decorate a nursery >> they need to decorate >> no. for decorations. one of a kind decals, stickers >> when pottery barn can't --

>> you know what i'm talking about. >> i don't >> we should look at that. thank you very much for joining us there in the opening block. now, stocks finishing higher closing in today's midterms. sectors could sell off on both the house and senate we'll discuss that next. we are watching statistics for the midterms polling data may not square off with economic sentiments we want to hear from you you can reach out to the show as always thclinbe bk tea e osg llacafr quick break. something is transforming and our world.. it's the longevity economy - americans 50+ driving 7.6 trillion dollars... of economic activity every year. right before our eyes, aging is unleashing exponential growth...

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that simplify your experience. my name is mike, i'm in product development at comcast. we're working to make things simple, easy and awesome. wendy's earnings are out >> that's right. it is looking like a mixed quarter for wendy's. coming in at 17 cents adjusted versus estimates of 16 cents down .2% in north america system wide for the quarter calling for an increase of 1.7%.

dunkin donuts approved an increase of $120 million of existing buy back program and gaining guidance and expected the increase by about 1% stock is down by about 5% right now. back over to you >> thank you >> maybe some answers as to where mcdonald's shares is coming it is at a new all time high again today. >> all right the first polls set to close in a few hours. we hit the streets to get voters take on the election and economic issues that matter most to them. >> the most important thing to

me is health care. >> you prices of housing and people who do not have housing and food and everything. i think all of that needs to be addressed. >> probably the deficit, government spending. i think it is getting out of control. >> we thought the person that could create more begans >> it is about tax rates >> i want to see more education. i want to see teachers in arizona better paid. >> health care is really important to me. it is difficult as a small business owner to carry your own. >> i have a kwuyoung daughter >> how much would the election have on today's markets? good afternoon to you both

if i start with you is your base case that of what many other investors and republican, senate and if so which sectors do you expect to benefit? >> my expect station is there are two areas upon which president trump and a democratic house would agree on the first is infrastructure spending the second is greater regulation of technology. i think that's why we have seen it in the month of october >> specifically because of kp t expectations >> evaluations came as the tenure went occupy i do believe part of the reaction was a result of growing acceptance that this would be the outcome of the election. >> give us a brief overview of what's in the etf and how it is going to do after the midterm

election zbloo look at the economy since it has came roaring back i think the people will vote with their 401ks so i think ultimately we are going to look out and find that the economy will be one of the driving factors of this. they can't sensor their 401k plans. they were going to go with a blue ripple. i don't know that it's in the cards that the democrats will take the house and the republicans are going to barely hold the senate. i think the republicans could hold the house i think they could pick up three seats in the senate. i think the fund itself is a great time to look at what's going on and take advantage of where we are from an economic cycle and trump's policies

>> we do see the republicans hold onto both houses. what happens in the market >> i would expect defense stocks to do well i think we could see an increased in defense spending. you could see hospitals sell off in this environment. the aca is in jeopardy >> aside from the results here it seems to me the market is x fixated on where we are in the business cycle is there anything in the mikeup of congress that will alter that very much in terms of how and when this cycle might end? >> i don't think there's much that could happenthat would alter it we are likely to see improvement on the margins and any of the scenarios that we look at with the exception of democratic sweep which is very very unlikely have been said that there is a little bit of upside potential

trade has been weighing down not just stocks but starting to show an impact on the economy they could join forces to try to claw back a little of the tariff powers >> so how as a so called trump economy bull how do you reconcile the president's trade policies >> i think trump is doing exactly the right thing with trade. china has been stealing ip, taking advantage of their companies and forcing them to sell off their companies to them trump is going to let china twist in the wind a little longer people are talking about a trade deal happening soon. i don't think it will be a bad thing. there is a lot of manufacturing jobs that can be moved from china or latin america it could help solve some of those problems down there. everything doesn't have to be

manufactured in china to work. there's an underlying theme that trump is not going let them continue do what they wiare doi. i think it is long enough without disrupting things. >> can you explain why are those the big holdings in the funds? how do they do well off of the trump economy? >> it is based on political contributions of the companies >> oh. put your money where your politics are that's the way they did it they put money behind those reporting to get elected that's what is given us is tax cuts and driven us economic growths. >> we'll leave it there.

thank you. out of time. >> thank you we have another earnings result, papa john's. kate has that for us analysts were looking at $394 million it is down 9.8%. those are system wide north american sales so a little bit better than expected currency says the environment remains challenging but a lot of consumer initiatives, the stock is just down by under 1% back over to you >> all right thank you. on papa john's down a percent. last month proved tough for hedge funds. up next mike will be heading to track how their position now,

what it indicates for the broader market facebook trading slightly higher it may serve as the ult matd test as the investment and security we'll discuss what they have done to prevent election meddling and if that has been sufficient ♪ ♪ ♪

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josh has details >> it is to require video tech for $5.6 billion or more than $31 a share according to cnbc who reports this all cash transaction could be announced as soon as tomorrow. so cables and antennas will gain a cable tv set box top maker which is surging in the after hours. it provides for 5.6 billion. back to you. >> yeah. market reaction is big >> yes thanks very much for that. >> since the start of october it has been decreasing steadily mike tells us more >> a particular brand of hedge funds. these are futures trading, momentum trading and this

basically measures their exposure to the s & p 500 over time you see lows recently. they have cut back they were short the market after the market globally they also were caught under exposed to the s and p 500 post election january they were very much riding the trend in stocks here you can see october's effect they cut from a more than 30% exposure down to basically flat. i think if there's one bullish point in here it's that a lot of hedge fund money got cleared out in october perhaps you're setting the scene if in fact the market rallies they will change it higher it has been lower before this exposure >> even when it has been lower and you're saying it was short lived moments it feels like the breks falls below zero

if we went back you have similar fears as you do today how long would it have prolonged then >> it will remain below zero for quite a long time. if the market is trending lower and does not have any of these sharp rallies they will remain lower. it is not necessarily saying it is an all clear. it is essentially saying if we remain in a general upward trending market it is a little bit of dry power. >> okay. thanks very much. time for cnbc news update. sue herrera has that for us. >> here is what's happening at

this hour. a man that set off a pipe bomb last year was convicted on all counts in court today. it went off in his jacket sentencing has been set for april 5th of 2019. you might want to check your pantry duncan hines discovering salmonella it includes classic yellow, classic butter golden, classic white and signature confetti if you have one of those return them to the place where you purchased them amazon's first ever printed catalog is coming out this month. it will specifically feature, you guessed it, toys it is titled a holiday of play >> people in tennessee not letting severe storms step them

from voting today. visitors were forced to visit by lantern lights long lines almost everywhere to vote >> and in the rain here. >> got it. zillow earnings are out now. >> zillow posted a loss. revenue of $343 million a slight miss it showcased a growth of 22% year over year the revenue it drives from new homes, that also beat consensus. it is undergoing a period of innovation and it will take time for advertisers to adapt but we are confident they set us up for longer term growth in addition to reporting earnings zillow tapping out that played a role in the whole foods acquisition. it will reopen in about three

minutes time 4:35 p.m. eastern to be precise. back to you. >> i had a decent little bounce recently it hasn't done much. >> it was halted because the finance chief announcement not seeing the indications but it has been in tremendous measure. it is down from 65 in june down here to around 40. i think the market has to get comfortable with this idea that they are becoming at least in part kind of a market maker of homes. >> okay. zillow halted but decentish numbers. politics are intertwined the data and political data are not completely in sync we'll look at those numbers. americans head to the polls facebook blocking more than 100 social media accounts for

inauthentic behave youior. we'll look at what they have taken in security for today's midterm elections and whether it is paying off. that geico has been offering savings for over 75 years. that's longer than the buffalo wing's been around. dozen wings. and did you know that geico... (lips smacking) offers mo... (coughing) motorcycle insurance? ho-ho... my lips are burning. (laughs) ah... no, my lips are actually burning. geico. over 75 years of savings and service. see how much you could save at geico.com. it's too hot. oh, this is too hot, mate.

a very weak fourth quarter slight revenue miss here it actually came from amazon she might have thought investors would like that news there are bigger words and zi o zillow's business. >> it seems as if it's the business model in general is trying to sell this idea they want to provide more services to consumers not just about the homeless things and buying homes outright >> we have another earnings report and frank collins got that set of results for us eps and revenue posting beats for 3 cents above the

street 44 million for revenue tinder has ban driving force which is up 62% on the year. they are reporting both for tinder this quarter 4.1 total users we'll keep an eye on numbers for tinder gold. back to you. >> thanks very much. the unemployment rate at a near 50 year low while a small majority of voters approve of the handling his overall tells a different story. steve is joining us now with how it could effect today's elections, steve >> if there's a tension in this election between the politics and economics it will help determine what kind of results we see what will be the outcome in congress

13% said gop retains both houses some say half red half blue. 7% say the dems take both houses let's take a look at politics and economics. the dems have a 7 point advantage in the wall street journal nbc poll who do you want to win congress. 3.7% unemployment. that's another survey. it done by 60,000 households let's take another look. our all america rates, 40% approval but 51% on the economy. one more piece we asked about temperament 48% are expressing in the future it is an all time high not

everybody will vote there. political considerations that everybody will vote their economy. there is a tension here that maybe leads a little bit against that convention of wisdom i talked about at the top there. >> yeah. stay with us if you could. we want to bring in john harwood on the election desk our power trio to discuss. how much of a role is the economy likely to play in this midterm election >> if you're the white house you desperately want the white house to play this they are betting on the fact that that unemployment number is very very good people feel the economy when they have a job, when their brother-in-law has a job and feel like opportunities for wage growth are out there that is something that the white house is banking on. i think it could be part of what could damp l this so called blue wave if you get people feeling happy about the economy the vote is status quo maybe that's what we will see

today and maybe not. >> don't you think it ends up shifting and a strong economy may damp l a strong opposition vote and maybe not as motivated to go out. the economy is doing much better to all of your points. i mean i lean towards the possibility that the house stays republican for all of these reasons. when you point out all of those numbers what's there to vote against at this point? >> all of this energy out there too. >> first of all independents have leaned towards the democrats this year. secondly, the economic data, while it's good there's increasing separation between what we in the financial community, the audience of wall street and owners of companies increasing separation between their economy and average person's economy unemployment rates, part of

that >> unbloemt is really bow, right? it is where they did extremely well >> i think there's movement and i think people are feeling it. my question is donald trump such a great politician that he has the possibility to overcome the history of midterms or if he'll -- >> he really energized people. it seems like -- >> let me go back to the economy. yes. wages are growing some what now ahead of inflation but wages on a ong-term basis have been

stagnant it doesn't change -- >> it is the biggest increase in years. >> yes but it's small they are not getting very much >> for years nothing happened and funlly something is happening onwages. >> we have a little clip he has been out on the trail he has been talking a lot about immigration, listen. >> democrats are inviting caravan after caravan. isn't that nice? >> of illegal aliens to

overwhelm. >> democrats are openly encourages millions of illegal aliens to break our laws and violate our borders. >> if you want strong borders in safe communities vote republican >> it is getting them fired up and ready to go and getting them focused on turning out today in their polling places this is a president that decided despite some of the wage growth we are talking about here ultimately what he wanted to make is immigration, the caravan. the president saw an enormous opportunity there and staked this on it

some said it might not appeal in suburban spring -- >> and with -- >> one second john >> and -- >> one second. whatever issue it is that drives them to pick the candidate they want to vote for are we relying on doing their polling in a similar fashion or have they adapted so that we can trust these better than we could in 20 307k you just have to say it's up to the voters today we will wait to see what happened here. a lot of people have ideas about what's likely to happen. it is not always what happens. so the election is not over until everybody votes. >> they have adjusted the

techniques it is more commonly polling off a voter list it is an attempt to make it more accurate than they have been in the past >> okay. thanks very much we will be back with you i'm sure next hour here on cnbc. we have a clarification for you. take a look at shares. it is up and saying commscope is near a deal to awaring arris they are near a deal facebook has blocked more than 100 accounts hours before voting kicked off today. whether it is enough to count off meddling in the election we'll disdocuss that. we'll dive into numbers you need to know cinomg up you're watching cnbc, first in

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another earnings report here >> reporting an impressive 68% jump in revenue year over year 7 cents adjusted stock is up about 9% here after issuing strong guidance for the current quarter. it is worth noting the stock has tripled on the year. >> all right strong gain after a strong year.

>> facebook taking action sus pentding some accounts believed to be associated with a foreign entity we have some details on this election day >> today facebook tells me it hasn't identified anything unexpected last night it announced another voter manipulation on its platform facebook took down over 650 pages. facebook is working to show it is on top of this challenge.

a dozen campaigns which other industries masked the fact that they were paying for political metszages. as for today they tell us they in close connect giving us a channel to report into the war room about voter suppression content and ads. back over to you thank you very much. facebook down about 15% year to date. there are 257 women running for election we'll break down how they are campaigning differently next and coming up on fast money one of the founders will reveal urisinhe biggest spre today's election will be anncr: , your brain naturally begins to change which may cause trouble with recall. - learning from him is great... when i can keep up!

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it's a record year for women running for higher office. abjane wells joins with us a look at candidates jane >> reporter: hey, wilfred, here in phoenix, the two nominees running for jeff flake's open senate seat are both women it has been a record year for women even during the primary season, a record 529 women filed as republicans or democrats to run for house or senate. up 57% from the previous record set last election. the number winning nominations up 39% the nominees up for governor more. >> ladies and gentlemen, stacey abrams. >> many potential firsts, stacey brarms running for governor of

georgia. we could have our first muslim woman elected to congress. but women face a tough time being liked. >> we know voters will not support a woman candidate if they don't like her, even if they believe she is qualified. but they will vote for a man if they don't like him and believes believe he is qualified. >> we know when women run they raise comparable amounts of money to men in comparable races. but it may be harder for them to do that. it may take them ten phone calls to raise $1,000 as opposed to one phone call. >> my mother in a drug abuse problem. >> and women this year are running differently talking about personal issue, drug abuse, domestic violence showing off tattoos wab row war record, moms there are 33 races nationally women run against other women including in arizona back to you. >> we will see if they make history today. jane wells, thank you very much.

it has been a busy hour for earnings we recap the biggest after hour movers next. >> a special edition of squawk box. can you catch joe becky and andrew for an extra hour starting 5:00 a.m. eastern time tomorrow early rise for them. i've been the.er "closing bell" back in a couple much minutes

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let's check in on the headlines making news after hours. etsy shares surging after the company reported strong revenue guidance and issued a $200 million buyback. >> diller shares in the opposite direction. amp the online real estate company posted a third quarter loss posted weak guides are guidance and match shares under pressure as well despite the profit and sales forecast big moves after hours. >> big indeed. also a big rally into the close. does that alter the dynamic ahead of tomorrow with the result. >> i don't think so. >> or presto. >> i don't think it was necessarily a laying of heavy bets people betting on one outcome or another. but it wants to try the repair process and see if it gets interrupted. >> also the the first move following the election first

reflex is not. >> the first move is the u.s. dollar if dems do better weak dollar process republicans do better, strong dollar. unclear what the equity implications are for that. but it's interesting to watch the news. >> certainly will be interesting to watch as will "fast money" which comes up right now. >> right now >> the "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site over looking new york city's time squares traders tim seymour, karen finer man, steve grasso and guy adami. it's election night in america and what could the moment of truth for the trump rally be the market is up 30% after 5 trillion in market cap americas head to the polls to determine the balance of power in congress and less than an hour away from the first results. eamon javers is back in the newsroom at election headquarters >> let's review the stakes for tonight ahead of the polls closing here in a couple of hours. starting with the house of representatives. this is where th