reflex is not. >> the first move is the u.s. dollar if dems do better weak dollar process republicans do better, strong dollar. unclear what the equity implications are for that. but it's interesting to watch the news. >> certainly will be interesting to watch as will "fast money" which comes up right now. >> right now >> the "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site over looking new york city's time squares traders tim seymour, karen finer man, steve grasso and guy adami. it's election night in america and what could the moment of truth for the trump rally be the market is up 30% after 5 trillion in market cap americas head to the polls to determine the balance of power in congress and less than an hour away from the first results. eamon javers is back in the newsroom at election headquarters >> let's review the stakes for tonight ahead of the polls closing here in a couple of hours. starting with the house of representatives. this is where the pundit it's and democrats think the

democrats have opportunity for pick up pps democrats need 23 seats net to take control of the house of represents from the republicans. we see if they can do it in the senate only two seats in the senate net to control that chamber but because of all the red states, the democrats run in this year, the expectation is for the senate ultimately that's going to be a heavier lift for democrats not necessarily to take control expected. but what we learned is all the expectations are out the window down to actual voting, election day itself we have to be cautious in projecting anything other than that a lot of people are out voting a huge amount of interest in this election. look at some of the early voting tallies we have from states across the country these are people who voted before election day. this is already in the bag in terms of votes look at this, texas, 5.9 million early voters there before election day arizona, 1.5 million tennessee 1.4.

georgia 2.1. a big number in georgia. florida, 5 million as well in texas there, beto o'rourke campaign in texas, that's fascinating to watch against ted cruz because ultimately this enthusiasm early voting that could be what a democrat needs to take control of that race a lot of voters turning out making it a different electorate than we expect otherwise texas is a red state you expect ted cruz to cruise to victory, no pun intended we see what the early voting does in terms of enthusiasm and number of voters show up today. we are watching that late into the night is my guess. >> eamon javers at leeks headquarters with an hour until the polls close no one knows what's happening. let's lay out the different scenarios and what each could mean for the markets going forward. and of course we are not political. let's be clear but politics as we have learned since 2016 influence your money and the markets. it's through that prism we look

at politics tonight what are you watching. >> on the broader market i thought lower for siem film obviously it's better today. here we are number one if we are we were to get a hold serve of the republicans karen growing up was a tennis player holding serve not a surprise shouldn't surprise any of us however if the republicans hold serve it's extraordinarily positive for the banks where would i go in the banks? well citi bank reported tangible book for citi bank is about $62. if you look at that valuation, make citi bank about the cheapest in that metric out of all at 0.8 times book. if you saw the republicans hold house and senate citi. >> you have gop maintaining power, right, in legislative branch, what happens >> could be tax 2.0. it could be easier trade deals

because you don't have the hurdles of dealing with opposition i would think that it's lower taxes, lower regulation, stronger stock market. >> well, first of all, i would zoum that if we hold serve like guy talks about that's a short-term gain but a medium to longtime negative. because that means more fiscal aggressiveness means more fed. it means also the higher rates hurting the markets more than anything i would posit to say that actually unlike karen who held serve often probably and i would say maybe it's guy who got broken serve, people say that if the democrats take the house, whatever that means, is that a blue wave? i don't know but any say that's priced in i don't think that's priced in at all. >> to some extent. >> think about why did we sell off over the the last month. >> that was not about the fed and trade and earnings and >> i think it was earnings, about people talking about the outlook for 2019 with the wage

pressures, higher wages, tighter labor markets unable to fill jobs fed more aggressive. were we selling off because we thought the democrats would push back on policy. >> i don't understand if we sold off and we have come back what was the comeback about. >> comeback was oversold >> well the comeback it was probably softer headlines on trade. when trump got softer and trade that was probably the comeback but i think it has to be priced in to some extent. you could say it's priced in 60%, 70% nothing priced in until it happens, know. >> is the theory -- i'm sorry to grind this to a screeching halt but is the theory here that pricing in a exactic win of the house and republican senate means negative for the stock market is that what the conventional wisdom is. >> it's grid lock. usually fwrid lock is supposedly positive. >> at the least it preserves the status quo, no because they do

have grid lock. >> we don't have grid lock we have a situation where republicans can do anything they want and they have to say that we lock in for two years for grid lock. >> but things won't get rolled back we won't lose all this. >> i agree with steve, i mean if we get a situation where i don't think you can get another middle class tax cut at 10% with a republican house you might get infrastructure although i doubt that too. i think we push woofrgt. but if you are telling me you take away the clean sweep the markets are neutral on that i say no. >> i think if the democrats take the house you might not -- it might be gried lock but there is not grid lock and headlines. you won't see reality really take place but you will see headline take place with more regulation there could be energy roll backs on epa. >> unhum. >> they could introduce -- they could introduce legislation not to say that it would pass but they could introduce and i think they would. >> headline risk means there is

nothing legislatively that passes that endangers let's say for banks. i think this is a situation where the banks might have headline risk but maybe not legislative risk to what the banks have gotten in terms of deregulation but having max even waters head the house financial services committee could be headline risk for financials >> yes, to me, that's sort of the biggest risk out there for the market is -- i mean the banks have been an important part of the market maybe leading, maybe following but to me if we get that blue wave, right, to me that's the biggest risk to the banks opposite what have guy is saying. >> i'm sorry. >> blood pressure wave equals negative. >> for banks. >> for banks. >> not the rest of the market. >> i think the rest of the market also but specifically for banks. >> and and that means a sweep of the house and senate. >> i'm not saying -- i don't think that's likely. >> that's the blue wave. >> what if -- what if the blue

only hits the house. >> the wading pool like a. >> a small ripple. >> a rip zblool yes. >> that laps up against -- >> i think tomorrow we have certainty on something, and the market hates uncertainty to the extent we have certainty in something that's a positive. >> let's say we get somebody like a max even waters who heads the house financials services committee because the blue wave is half a wave and only sweeps the house. how negative is that for the banks. >> it's interesting. so the night of the -- going into the presidential election two years ago now i thought that if then candidate trump were to be elected the stock market would sell off 12, 15% for six hours that night it was looking like a genius. at 3:00 in the morning with the s&p down 105 handles the comment i made was we might see a bounce tomorrow morning. >> i thought you were just tired. >> i was tired as well what was priced in if you give me the outcome i don't know what's going to happen to answer the question, if there

is a blue wave i would think that it's extraordinarily negative for the market. but i've been proven wrong so many times now. >> if there is a blue wave or red wall to keep these things accurate, i think that both are overdone so i think that the market will rally aggressively. >> if there is a red wahl. >> if there is a red wahl. >> if the republicans hold the house. >> and the senate. aggressively that should be sold. >> sold. >> sold on the pop. >> it's a blue wave you buy that dip. >> one thing about a blue wave, aside from the -- i think the market goes down, banks in particular in the cross hairs. but if it's really a huge blue wave, i think that's a big indictment of trump's presidency that the economy is in good and yet still a blue waech. >> i think people get tired -- people get tired of the partisan i hear you with the wave versus the house flipping. >> it's stronger then. the idea the senate would go would be a big. >> let's be clear we had a blue wave many years into the last

election argue by. a case where at least the regulatory framework and even the even the legislative switched back the pendulum towards the blue that's why we have the response in 2016 as far as i'm concerned. in fact that's been good for markets. although if you remember that going up until really probably a two-year period before we stagnate into elections markets did swell well in the blue environment too. >> they flipped it in 2010 that aggressive nature of president obama was brought to a halt and that was where you had that fwrid lock where the markets -- >> which is good for markets i agree with all of that i would say that if we got a blue wave not a ripple and not a red wall the markets would sell off and should sell off. >> according to what you are saying if i could distill this squloo good luck. >> creating terms. >> it's confusing with the wall and the wave and the serve but basically you are saying it's neutral to positive if the democrats get the house and the

republicans hold the senate or if the republicans hold both and negative across the board if the democrats take both. >> yes. >> for the market. >> for the market for the market. >> this is all for the markets. >> we add one more ingredient. >> throw it in. >> when you are the south sometimes you put in the whiskey and maybe moonshine. >> only in the south. >> that was that. >> anyway, the market -- the election -- i think it's noise i think the reasons why the market sold off until the last week or so are much bigger than that those reasons haven't gone away. we have seen softening in terms of china but does that mean anything getting done. >> he gets harder coming out of the election did he the softer tap he gets harder either way. >> what if he loses the house. >> harder no matter what. >> the president tougher line on china. the democrats want him to be tougher on mc. >> for more on what the mid-terms could mean por the

markets and d.c. let's go to axios cofounder and editor mike allen. joining from us washington, d.c. we have been talking about the various scenarios and how they could impact the markets in your view what's the likely scenario standing here on the eave -- not the eve but the evening of the election day. >> we are headed toward the split decision that -- i've been talking to people in both parties around the country all day. neither democrats nor republicans see anything in the tea leaves that they're reading and the data they get that suggests we are headed anywhere away from probably a pick up or two for republicans in the senate as amazingly enough as it is in this environment, and a really bluish wave hitting democrats lifting democrats in the house. the only question is, is the blue wave a category 4 or category 5 to give you a smart brevity from axios and what these different waves and walls and what all

those terms mean what he we will know later tonight. i think we know sooner rather than later, is president trump triumphant or corner does he start the re-election race on the defensive and are democrats empowered or humiliated the way the trends look, the democrats have a heavy hand in washington if somehow this doesn't happen, i can tell you the democrats who were sad the night of the hillary clinton they are going to be which -- what are we going to do now tonight? >> you got a lot of great reporteren oh on the staff what are they saying in terms of how president trump views in election is there a magic number in his head when it comes to pick ups in the senate and maybe pick ups by democrats in the house? >> as you know, president trump is not a precision guy so, no, it's not -- it's not a number in his head he is going to want to see can he applausably go out and say

this is a vindication both of my own election, which as we know remains in his head, and does it show strength through the country? bus if you find republicans losing in florida, georgia, places like that, the trump map for 2020 like suddenly becomes a real problem the president famously narrowly won the electoral college. if he lose as big state or two, if a big state or two is not looking as trumpy as before his math gets tough for 2020 he has to really scramble rethink and democrats see huge opportunity in addition to the fact that a lot of democrats want to philamena vacuum they suddenly are going to say now the noms is worth having. >> quickly we are out of time. what do you think the biggest surprise could be out of election day. >> in addition to the size of the wave, i'm going to look at the -- is it beto weather in

texas in there is no sign democrats take the senate. but could there be a presidential level turnout in texas that would propel representative beto o'rourke who has the astonishing presidential size crowds ahead of ted cruz in texas. don't expect it. i talked to them today they are not worried but that would be a sign of the cat 5 we were talking about. >> thanks so much. mike allen the cofounder of axios. let's trade some of this here in terms of whether trump states that he won in 2016 look less trumpy will the markets look ahead to 2020. >> i think the markets are a forward pricing mechanism but 020 is far out you could say six to eight months but my thing is if 20 of the races in the house are within the margin error how are any of the forecasts reliable until we wake up? i don't get how the probabilitiens can be made. >> one of the things about 2020

that's interesting demographic trends in terms of changing demographic in our country. states like florida and texas are no longer straight up red anymore. i'm taug etalking about people leaching the northeast and californias that's for another show the bottom line is the markets have oversold based upon conditions related to the fed. we have a fed meeting tomorrow that's the most important thing that happens tonight or tomorrow fed. >> does the fate in the markets hang in the balance? a top strategist says he is not worried. but there is something else keeping him up at night. and facebook faces the mid-terms. it's mark zuckerberg's chance to prove his platform is up to the challenge. traders tell you about that. a number of web 2.0 stocks reporting earnings making huenink moves after hours. live from times square in new york city. much more "fast money" right after this i am a family man.

i am a techie dad. i believe the best technology should feel effortless. like magic. at comcast, it's my job to develop, apps and tools that simplify your experience. my name is mike, i'm in product development at comcast. we're working to make things simple, easy and awesome. >> welcome back to "fast money." facebook blocking a number of fake accounts overnight in an ongoing effort to crackdown on election manipulation ahead of the mid-terms. let's get to julia boorstin in

l.a. to break it down for us. >> facebook tells us that today it hasn't identified anything unexpected last night it announced it had found another effort at voter manipulation on its platform the company blocking 30 facebook accounts and 85 instagram accounts engaged in what it calls coordinated inauthentic behavior facebook investigating if they are linked to the russian agency saying given we are only one day away from the important elections in the u.s. we wanted to let people know about the action we have taken come less than two weeks after facebook found and shut down 82 pages, groups and accounts linked to iran and in august shutting down over 650 pages running disinformation campaigns tide to iran and russia and facebook is ramping up the war room and doubling the security team to 20,000 people facebook saying it's in close contact with state election officials giving them a dedicated channel to report about voter suppression content

and ads violating election law the twitter after friday reportedly deleting over 10,000 accounts aimed to discourage people from voting in the election the company telling us it's on the lackout for malicious accounts, working closely with government, peer companies and law enforcement to counter shared threats nothing new from google, though it has been pushing to get out the vote offering information about how to register and fine voting location. >> julia boorstin. it has been a rough ride for the stock. will it get through the election unscathed and will that get facebook rallying once again here is the question we hear drips and drabs about the fake accounts shut down. are you worried, karen as a facebook shareholder that there is a shoe to drop after the mid-terms and everybody goes through tweets and ads and news stories and feeds et cetera. >> relate ared to the election. >> exactly. >> i'm worried about it less than about some of the other things more obvious and higher

up you know, for example, if there is an anti-trust case, for example. gdp r and also the margin of business the last quarter was good. that was some comfort. they need to continue monetizing instagram and put up good numbers. those things are for mar important than the election. >> sounds like all you heard was dollar signs, every expense they had, 20,000 employees looking at this or whatever the number is going to be, ultimately sounds like a headwind to profitability going down the road. >> but they put that headwind out and the stock got crushed. >> increasing. it's not going away. and if there is another headline, to melissa's point, there will be another thousand people hired to do the same thing. i think that margins will be squeezed. >> see, i think they got in front of any potential headline, not that it won't being negative for the stock. >> any got in front of the night before the election and they

could have told us two months before the eye. >> margins were improved 750 basis points improvement in margins. that's significant eps, big beat, revenues not so much maybe that move down to 138.5 when it flush the night of earnings wasn't enough it hasn't traded particularly great since then the bounce above 150. but it's okay. >> what the bad billy joel song. >> there are a number of. >> we didn't start the fire and uptown girl certainly one and two. there is mayorum lack of trust at facebook. that's displayed in the multiple what's been talked about in this segment is that margins go down because security costs are going higher the they can't tell what you the costs are looking like it comes down the multiple 2.6well users, folks the company not going out of business instagram is going further. >> you've been saying this the loppingest time. >> i've been. >> nice, karen nice. >> i got sucked in the ego and i

thought she was complimenting. >> tim seymour. >> you wrote an op-ed. >> i have written a couple. >> you kept one the op ed. >> twitter up 43% year to date. >> they doept get a as pass they have a program why do they get a pass. >> whenever we talk about them it's a footnote. when it's facebook it's a major story. >> isn't the next thing to drop. >> they were the child in the room and now they're treated like the adult at the table. >> for more on facebook's big night head over to cnbc.com. i'm melissa lee. you're you're watching cnbc. in the meantime here is what else is coming up on fast. >> well, the news might not be good for the health care sector after the mid-terms. we'll tell you why it might be a lose lose situation for some of the biggest stocks plus. >> get in looser we are going shopping. >> that's what investors do as

retail stocks rip gh sulhierhod you trust the bounce there is more "fast money" right after this ade the first commercial wireless phone call in 1983. yes, this is bob barnett in chicago. (john) we were both working on that first network that would eventually become verizon's. back then, the idea of a nationwide wireless network was completely unreasonable. but think about how important that first call was to our lives. it opened the door to the billions of mobile calls that we've all made in the last 34 years. sometimes being first means being unreasonable. i'm proud i was part of that first call, and i'm proud that i'm here now as we build america's first and only 5g ultra wideband network with unprecedented wireless capacity that will not only allow for phones to be connected, but almost everything-- transforming how we all live, once again. (bob barnett) as you know, this call today is the first call that we've made on the cellular system.

welcome back to "fast money. stocks rallies as the mid-terms in full swing. history suggests big gains ahead. bob is at the new york stock exchange with more hi, bob. >> lots of happy talk down here. all sorts of talk on wall street, the market rally after the election there is good reason for thi happy talk actually. the markets do tend to rally after mid-terms elections. the numbers are amazing short term and longtime since 1980 the s&p traded up 8.5% the since world war ii the s&p has been up average 149.5% one year later but more important up a year later every time 18 out of 18 times that's a good record but this is a very unusual election and not everybody think that is grd lock in washing, which is the consensus on the election, will be good for stocks.

remember, much of the benefit to stocks in the last two years has come because we were not in grid look environment that's how the tax cuts got through. now looking forward there is little chance the trump tax cuts will be rolled back with the republican senate, assuming that but there is little chance the tax cuts are made permanent with a democratic house more stimulus may be tougher to come by. a lot of republicans believe they may be much morp concerned with rising deficit. the the traditional republican concern leaving little room for spending, particularly in the infrastructure projects that everybody wants and nobody can figure out how to pay for. and if there is a hint of slowing in the economy the the president will likely blame the federal reserve for raising rates. putting them a box making it difficult for them to back down. the democrats will launch a long investigation into the president's finances if they win the house. trade tensions will continue and rates will likely keep rising my bottom line here, melissa,s in a different environment from

november 2017 when tax cuts were imminent i guess the biggest problem i have is that the last two years the market was going up, the strategist says because we didn't have grid lock. now the market is supposed to go up because we have grid lock only wall street strategists can get away with that logic. >> bob at the nyse of course at the fed meeting, the trade war still on the next guest says this midterm is different let's bring in jeffrey mills the cochief investment strategist at the financial services your baseline scenario that the markets are priced for grid lock. >> that's the case where it could be different potentially is that in 2016 there was this massive policy pendulum shift and that's driven the market to a large degree the past two years in the sense that the result of the midterm is a referendum on those policies on trump and not that they change immediately or next quarter oh or next year but investors say this is foreshadowing the 2020, the

policy pendulum could swing back, that's where this may be different. bob quoted the statistics. about 18 out much 18 we know the track record i think it's still intact. but i think that's the risk. because we have had such big changes in policy that maybe aren't typical. >> at the same time even though the pendulum has swung and even with grid lock, the pendulum in theory remains spunned to where it is, even if it doesn't go further with what we call the red wall a term we are coining on the show -- you're saying it's the things decided outside the mid-terms that ultimately term the direction of the markets appear how fast they rise or fall. >> yeah, i think so. i mean a big part is cap x decided out of the mid-terms to a degree you think about trade policy and really that affect on ceo confidence that's the key you see how ceo confidence is levered to cap x if trade tracing are dwrags on

take a look ceos pull back on the cap approximate you don't get the boost of productivity and economic potential will be what it's been a long time but i think when thinking about moving past the mid-terms election action and trade, yes it's important to put that uncertainty aside but what's ununtd appreciated you used this during the power lunch. >> gold star. >> it's the economy stupid it's the kpee be, stupid presidents realized that if you go back past the mid-terms elections this self-preservation kicks in and presidents think about their own re-election. they institute policies that might be a surprise. obama did it in 2010. >> is there a trump put in the market. >> essentially obama did it with extending the bush tax cuts probably a price to a lot of people you think about the biggest lever trump has to pull it's probably op trade. nobody expects a deal with china. but is he an idea log that sticks with than makes no compromise

or is he a deal maker with high self-preservation instikts. >> you talk about policy shifts. what rising rates? is that enough to hit a wall against all the positives, rising rates, does that fail, stop short of everything that's positive in this marketplace ones we start focusing on that again. >> yeah i think it lebron jamesly depends on that. it's having to do with how fast the fed decides to move relative to what they perceive at the neutral rate i don't think we moved into the new growth paradigm where we are growing at 3% or 4%. i think the neutral rate is somewhere around 3 that maybe gives latitude to move end of the the year or next year but if they go on autopilot that's a major risk. >> can we distill the conversation if your best case scenario is the markets are priced for grid lock and the trump put is because he wants to ensure his

re-election in 2020 does that mean you are constructive on the market. >> we are constructive on the stock market this is obviously lower than where we are now you think of the line in the sand from technicians, 25885 178 consensus even dialed back for typical earnings revisions you have to see a big drop in multiples to remain a at these levels right now given where earnings are come in we are constructive going forward. >> thanks, jeff. the notion of the trump put is interesting. i think we all. >> yeah. >> agree that a president wants to be re-elected and the thing about china trade is that it doesn't need congressional approval really the deal is cut between the two leaders. he is more in control of that than with the nafta. >> and embedded in that conversation is the fact that if president trump decides it's time to make a deal the chinese will say it's time -- i'm not certain. i guess my pinpoint all along is president trump might be ready to deal. it doesn't mean the chinese are

ready. that's a concern. >> when would he make the deal talking about the trump put in the to 20 election why why make it now. >> let it get pro longed to 2019. >> nobody will remember -- by to to if he does it in the short term. >> okay. >> but i'm constructive nonetheless. >> i think jeff made great points that's absolutely what he will do it's surprising he didn't do that into mid-terms. why in the trump the job markets and economy, the wages best in a decade this is shaping. up for a nasty -- 2016 lite. if you think where the fed ends the year we get the seasonal la dee dau oversold and corraly but you faced smack in the first quarter. >> trump gets tougher on trade after the mid-terms. the market sinks off the headlines and rallies quickly by thanksgiving or so. >> that quickly. >> i have the crystal ball here might as well use it into year end, seasonality

q 1 is too tough sell on q 1. >> more on the mid-terms including the health care stocks which could be impacted most let's get a check on earning move etsy twilio match, all on the move after hours seeing what the mechanic says about the web 2.0 stocks when "fast money" returns

welcome back to "fast money. web 2.0 stocks match, etsy, zillow and twilio

all on the move following earnings reports frank collins breaking it down. >> let's start with etsy rallying up more than 13% after earnings released. the emarket place for crafts and had made items 15 cents up. and in light with estimates from the street a great stock up over 97% this year we spoke with several analysts about the performance and also the stock buyback. tom fortt saying the fact that they ramp the buyback suggests they believe the stock is undervalued and underachieved with recent strepgt. we had rk saying they continue to improve the enhants mts and push for repeat pieing and by pushing the buying experience and seems to be seeing good signs of that. etsy up 13% after the bell zillow, the real estate database company plummetth after the bell missing on revenue and hurt by

reshuffling of top executives. to match group, solid beat on eps and revenue announcing growth with tinder app and a $2 special dividend still shares falling more than 5% in after hours trading. we finish one twilio, up 11% in after hours trading after the cloud communication company released earnings, the company tripling estimates and eps and strong beat on revenues. >> thanks, frank now before reporting earnings web 2.0 stocks surged. twilio dominating surging over 200% do you keep betting on the web 2.0 play sns guy i know you are a big etsy fan given your guy adami sock puppet ordered on etsy. >> what do you use it for. >> the fact that they buy back the stock. >> the stock went to 49 town to 40, 45 now the problem is can you wrap your head around the values if recently people say we can

wrap our head around it. there is growth. i'm not that comfortable it has to close above 50 to take a leg higher zillow quick this is a commentary out of zillow guided down for the fourth quarter in a meaningful way number one valuation is still ridiculous. number two still o group is under going trrmgsle vision. i got it tell you that ain't good. >> you know what's interesting we have in period of selling growth, buying value and twilio and etsy or the poster child for growth names. they were beat en up. it seems you got a discount to both to have them report and pop like this it's a tailwind and it's going to put at least people that are willing to short it or sell the stock kind of back up on heels i think you probably could have further room to the upside. >> zillow is down. >> zillow is down. >> well the zillow -- it's been a rough mechanic for one the other thing, remember railroad talking about earlier

when they announced they were buying an online mortgage lend are. i hate when companies change the style drift. and then it's a tough market even though it's cheaper i'd stay away. >> some of the names are hypermarket multiple hype he were momo and they are tougher match is not that. it's not expensive despite the slowdown in tinder guy, i think you are continuing to see 25 times multiple plus 30% growth i think that stock holds in here. >> karen mentioned style drift that shirt is more in a meaningful way. >> i wonder if guy is lashing out because i. >> estating fact on that shirt. >> why did my tinder comment turn into a tie raid on my smirt. >> anyway coming up health care one of the best performing s&p sectors but it could halt after the mid-terms elections. we explain plus the retail rally heating up

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tonight's poll results meg tyrrell has more. >> mid-terms aren't usually a major source of volatility for health care stocks but the 2016 presidential election marked a turning point for the sector and the outcome of today's elections could yield big moves. a major focus on drug prices and divisiveness over the health care act potentially large wings depend on the outcome of the elections. let's look at biotech for the ibb op xlv months. ibb down 7% appear biotechs baug they are smaller and volatile reflect market fears more than large pharma what analysts see happening in different election scenarios most expected if exact takes the house but not the senate we may see a minor rally in knows stocks cowen research if the democrats

gain an edge there could be more hargs. and fears about broader changes to the health care system into the 2020 election could pressure the space like had health insureser and if they expect a stroerpg ray reaction from biotechs and from big pharma too. the day after the 2016 election bioteched gained 9%. pharma gained 3.5%. >> meg tyrrell back at health cares. where do you go, guy in this sideways because drug price something bipartisan issue. >> bipartisan issue but president trump tweets about drugs in the spring. why is it pfizer is gone up in a straight line. the biggest move in pfe in the last decade orz. although the rhetoric is out there the stocks say something else eli lilly is one if you look eli lilly down 3.5,

4% line in the sand through the fall held there. here we are illustrate critical it holds there pfizer although it hasn't gone up hasn't gone down. i think pfizer is building a base for the next leg higher >> they all made the same move it's coincident with a rotation almove this is an afflictle story as much as that seems anti-thet cal to what's going on i don't think it matters if the market struggles at higher multiples these outperform that's why i think they outperformed. >> for biohe can. >> big pharma that's on pig pharma. >> talking about aca overturned either way it's a win for hmos, drug companies if you become more efficient and don't have to cover everybody then you are more efficient and it's a tailwind. if you have to cover everybody you build the business it's a tailwind as well. it's a win/win all around. i like the big pharma as well. >> look at mylan today up very big on the earnings

beat and so maybe that shows you how from depressed they are if they can put up decent earnings they have come down a long way. >> well the midterm madness continues on mad money look at the cramer cam there is jim breaking down the midterm playbook and coming up op fast. retail stocks on a tear the last two weeks. traders are betting on big gains in the big names live at the nasdaq in times square much more "fast money" still ahead. there are stores open late for shopping and fun as people seek gifts or even give some. not necessarily wrapped with paper and bows, but gifts of kind deeds, hard work and cold toes. there's magic in the air, on this day, at this time. the world's very much alive at 11:59.

[ready forngs ] christmas? no, it's way too early to be annoyed by christmas. you just need some holiday spirit! that's it! this feud just went mobile. with xfinity xfi you get the best wifi experience at home. and with xfinity mobile, you get the best wireless coverage for your phone.

...you're about to find out! you don't even know where i live... hello! see the grinch in theaters by saying "get grinch tickets" into your xfinity x1 voice remote. a guy just dropped this off. he-he-he-he. welcome back if to "fast money. retail stocks ripping higher as retail earnings kick into high gear the etf surging since 7% since slump to a 5 month low in october. macy as ran into double dijs do you fade. >> i long some now is the time to bay long macy's, long foot lockerer. we see macy's this week. but also michael cures down i think 1.5% on the heels of ralph lauren even though the earnings were decent. i think people were

disappointwood a few things. revenue and same store sales cures in many ways is a similar animal but other ways different and a lot cheaper than ral long that going into tomorrow morning hope it works out. >> are we worried about the same pattern happening touring other parts of earning season where the stocks are up into earnings and then sell off. >> we have seen that before. i think the guidance we get from the retailers with the exception of what we heard from amazon who is the big one, is going to be very, very positive. and again, i've gotten long macy's again a small position in l brands the target crushes this season i go on record saying black friday and cybermonday, all in is going to dwarf last year for this segment of the consumer in isn't luxury. we are talking about middle class. it's on fire. >> you know what's a favorite of the democrat if they take the house. >> minimum wage.

it's a headwind for. >> haven't they raised minimum wage. >> but amazon forces the rest of the retail space to do more. trump is actually an advocate for raising the minimum wage i would think that you start to see that maybe crack. >> that's the reason they are going higher making more money they're spending it. >> i think that if -- that's a labor cost for them. i think it's a restaurant. >> because we have a split screen. >> this better be good. >> time line consumer has more money to spend that outweighs demand is outweigh the supply costs. >> no matter how do you it. >> ins on shirt. but. >> wins on shirt but i don't know if they can outweigh the headwind of cost even a headline risk you see that restaurants in in stocks and retail stocks. >> we haven't heard them say actually labor costs are killing our business. >> you haven't had a democratic house either >> that's not going to change in the next three weeks you're not hearing that commentary from these people in three weeks. that was the question.

talking about earnings could could these guys disappoint. >> the market is forward pricing. >> we need a split screen. i feel like it's. >> guy, weigh in. >> we are back. >> can i talk over the split screen. >> yes we can do a triple pan slide you in. >> great. >> a lot of the retailers were floundering sort of trading sideways until amazon missed had a downdraft ant tailwinds for these have been on amazon. whether justified or not i'm of the inclination you fade a lot of the retailers specifically nordstroms into earnings next week because in terms of valuation some of them have gotten too expensive. >> for more one-on-one retailer let's bring in mike khouw in san francisco, hi, mike. >> there we are. there we are at looking at michael kors the implied moving is 0% well we saw the well would have average call volume. one was a purchase of the of one thousand of the weekly 59 strike calls.

trading under $2 obviously bullish bets that we see a positive move off of earnings and to karen's point, of all the names we were talking about in one isn't particularly expensive. and also considering the fact that it's had such considerable weakness since the highs earlier this year if you think it might make a sharp move one direction or the other making a bet to the up side mied make sense here. >> thanks for that, mike fop for more "options action" check out the full show friday 5:30 p.m. eastern time >> it's not your favorite show. >> after this. >> you haven't been oh it a long time. >> somebody is mad at me. >> they are weigh options. >> for someone who doesn k'tnow much about options i thought you were good. >> up next, final trade. see that's funny, i thought you traded options. i'm not really a wall street guy. what's the hesitation? eh, it just feels too complicated, you know? well sure, at first, but jj can help you with that. jj, will you break it down for this gentleman? hey, ian. you know, at td ameritrade, we can walk you through your options trades step by step

until you're comfortable. i could be up for that. that's taking options trading from wall st. to main st. hey guys, wanna play some pool? eh, i'm not really a pool guy. what's the hesitation? it's just complicated. step-by-step options trading support from td ameritrade at&t provides edge-to-edge intelligence, covering virtually every part of your retail business. so that if your customer needs shoes, & he's got wide feet. & with edge-to-edge intelligence you've got near real time inventory updates. & he'll find the same shoes in your store that he found online he'll be one happy, very forgetful wide footed customer. at&t provides edge to edge intelligence. it can do so much for your business, the list goes on and on. that's the power of &. & if your customer also forgets socks! & you could send him a coupon for that item.

welcome back to "fast money. we are just minute in which from the first polls closing and we'll have you covered on what this all mean for markets starting early tomorrow with supersize "squawk box" beginning at 5:00 a.m. eastern time until 9:00 a.m a kwhopg four hours. >> 5:00 a.m. >> you have to tune in. >> he starts -- i hope -- he hope he is wchg.

he is preciping and sleeping. >> preciping and sleeping it's a big night here and so with that tonight final trade is very important zplo. >> final trade time around the horn mid-terms final trade. >> tim seymour. >> look now but the smh rallied 11% off the bottom ink intel is the way to the play semis recovering but data krerpt is kicking i like intel. >> karen. >> trying to handicap all the scenarios, in a lot infrastructure comes out as a winner so united rentals i think would play into that sold off the bounced back a lot but i think the valuation is cheap and happy anniversary to my husband, best trade i ever made. >> did he crush it. >> how many. >> 25. no expect aches. >> mossle topf. >> electronic arts the sector underperformed take two active vision, blizzard blue sky for electronic hearts.

>> i find it amazing karen got married at 5 years old i did that in my head. the banks have been waiting for in election. need to get through it for citi to rally. >> happy anniversary to karen vd lawrence goote if make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you some money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach you so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. how do we gain out potential outcomes of this election. we saw a lot o