it is 5:00 a.m. on cnbc. oil falling deeper into a bear market down again this morning. asian markets tumbling overnight. hong kong taking a big hit disney reporting a record quarterly profit you'll hear from the ceo tough times in cincinnati as p&g announce amakjor reorganization and alibaba hoping to smash some records. we'll bring you alibaba's ceo's exclusive comments

it's friday, november 9, 2018, "worldwide exchange" begins right now. ♪ >> let's get along while we can. nobody is perfect. good morning and welcome from wherever in the world you may be watching happy friday the futures are not perfect. not down a lot dow down about 60 points now but we are down across the board. here's how the rest of your money and the global markets are setting up their day unless we see a steep drop today in u.s. stocks, we are on pace for our best week since february on the dow we rallied over 6% from lows of a week and a half ago. this may be good for gasoline prices, but likely bad for the oil and gas stocks crude oil is down again. wti crude down 0.8%. that's the key number. we are close to falling below 60 bucks a barrel

we were talking about $100 a barrel a couple months ago because of iran sanctions and outages, but now we have way too much oil in the world. if the world uses 98 million barrels of oil a day, the next barrel after that is worth zero. it's supply and demand nigeria is producing more. libya is producing more. we have higher inventories in the u.s., some of the highest we've seen in a while. natural gas has been a hot story here as well in asia overnight, it was red across the screen. it was led down by hong kong the hong kong market, the hang seng down nearly 2.5%. japan is down as well. by the way, the shanghai market, their domestic stock market down 24% in 12 months get a live check on the early trade in europe. we are lower there as well

not as severe as the asian markets. we are red across the screen your top stock story today is likely to be the house of mouse, disney shares of the entertainment giant are moving higher. disney reporting a record profit last quarter disney also announcing its streaming service is set to launch late this year. disney's ceo, bob iger, spoke about the company's banner year. here's part of what he said. >> the studio had another record year with just incredible success across the board obviously a strong film slate. that helped drive numbers for the quarter and for the year >> let's bring in matthew gerrahan from "the financial times. pleasure to see you again on "worldwide exchange. what stuck out to you about disney's quarter and their

outlook? >> the quarter, as you said and as bob iger said, the movie studio is firing on all cylinders. it's unprecedented success the movie industry is a hard business to get right. through the brands they have, through marvel, pixar, lucas film, the big budget movies of disney, they all seem to be hits they de-risked the movie industry they deserve a lot of plaudits for that the next question facing them is what they do with streaming. you touched on that, too they're working on disney plus, which is the name they've given to their global streaming services the question is do they have enough content and will their tech work effectively enough to go global with the service that makes a real impact and can take a bite out of netflix's success.

>> what do the people you talk to think it's a crowded space out there >> that's the question can the market support another one of these services or how many can it support? netflix is in every major market globally, more than 125 million subscribers. investing recording amounts in content. disney is launching some segmented services within a service. so the main disney plus service will have a marvel channel, a lucas channel, national geographic channel you wonder whether or not they would be better bundling that with hulu. hulu they will run separately and invest in that they are also taking hulu internationally. there's a question mark over

that >> you mentioned those things here, let's be clear, disney is going to bank its future on disney plus to two things, "star wars" and marvel is there a sign of viewer fatigue in any of those? >> look at the results at the box office this year though the hans solo movie wasn't as big of a hit as they would have liked the question is can those box office hits translate into a service people want to pay for every month. that's an unanswerable question at this point. is there enough content out the there. they talked yesterday about a prequel for rogue 1, a prequel live action series based around

the character from the avengers movies is that enough to pay $10 a month for every month? i don't know if it is. maybe it will be maybe i'm wrong, but i wonder if there's enough out there the question really is how much are they going to spend, how much other content will they produce? will they shift spending from things like abc to this service? they spent a lot of money on it. the future is in streaming we have to wait and see. >> we need a sequel to the prequel. most important question all week, your favorite superhero is who? >> that's a good question. i like the incredible hulk the unpredictability >> just don't rip your shirt off. >> i won't >> you wouldn't like me when i'm angry. thank you very much for joining us >> that's right. all right. thanks >> in other corporate news

there's stress in since nat tich cincinnati after procter & gamble is looking to reorganize. >> they will reorganize into six smaller business units each will be broken out by a product category like beauty the move is something investors have been calling for including one prominent investor, nelson peltz. peltz fought p&g last year in a proxy fight and won a board seat in march david taylor sat down with sara eisen after announcing this reorganization she asked him what he's hoping to accomplish with the restructure. >> without question the goal for all that we're doing, both our superiority strategy and the organizational change is to get the balance growth and value creation we believe that the path we're on which is leveraging superiority of the product, the

packa package, go to market capability, communications, consumer and customer value, doing that right will cause us to win a big part of winning is making sure we're agile >> david taylor will sit down this morning with cnbc >> important company, not only to the region but to the country. we know that unless we get a steep drop today we're on pace for what will be the best february -- the best week for february for the dow jones futures are slightly down. let's bring in geina sanchez, just off the plane from los angeles. so fresh she's getting ready on camera gina sanchez i can't see you technically, but it's a pleasure to have you on the program.

let's talk u.s. politics from london there's beenall this dialogue around the markets which is the uncertainty has been removed now that we know the outcome of the election you beg to differ a little bit do you think it could get more volatile because the president's potential relationship with the democrats in the house >> well, i do think there's definitely a new source of volatility so if you look at what has happened, the markets were pricing in a shift towards the democrats in the house that was already priced to some degree now we know that, the market knows what it's in for. what's interesting is that the administration, just in its first few days of digesting this new situation, looks like it could be potentially more erratic. the market is not priced in for any kind of a constitutional crisis i'm not suggesting that we'll get there. i'm simply saying that we could

see more erratic behavior out of the administration with this, until this settles and the relationship settles and deals get struck for a period of time nobody knows how the democrats in congress are going to play with the president's administration and with the republicans >> this is not a political segment, it's a market segment but you can't eliminate that political risk from the markets, can you? we know there are many on the left who would like to go after the president, whether it's impeachment or tax records if we start to see this war of words or increased investigation, do you believe that's a market risk >> i do think it's a market risk here's what the markets are concerned about. the markets are concerned from here on out the political machine goes into grit lock. that means we won't get future

fiscal stimulus. the tax stimulus is already wearing off. we're naturally going to slow from here. there's going to be nothing to follow on to that. that's the market risk largely policing itself in i think you still have further multiple compression in order to reflect sort of lower expectations going forward i think there's downside to the markets from here. if you layer on the potential for a more adversarial congress relative to the administration, and like i said a potential for constitutional crisis, that adds another layer of potential downside risk to the multiple. in that scenario it's difficult to plan as a company the corporate earnings then become questionable. >> outside of that, what would be the biggest risk for equities here >> look, i think that equities

right now are having a natural rollover that you get after stimulus events. we're expecting that value is likely going to be your best performer. i think the biggest risk from -- that's, i think, now an expectation. i think a lot of people have that the biggest risk is that cash becomes king which is that the fed continues to tighten and that the outlook becomes less certain and you sort of get into the really uncomfortable scenario where interest rates are rising, but the outlook for the economy is naturally slowing so you could get into kind of a pain point in 2019 or maybe even towards the end of 2019 that you start pricing in early in 2019 >> gina sanchez live from london, great to have you on the program. safe travels we'll talk to you soon

thank you very much. >> thank you. up next, going for records the world's biggest single day retail holiday kicks off this weekend. cnbc sat down exclusively with the ceo of alibaba ahead of the singles day. we'll bring you his comments later on, betting on amazon's hq2, we'll tell you the one sector that you may want to invest in if amazon does come east everything i buy. and last year, i earned $36,000 in cash back. which i used to offer health insurance to my employees. what's in your wallet?

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good morning welcome back three big money stories you need to know about right now. yelp shares plunging the stock is down nearly 30% the company missed on revenue. the online review company hurt by slower than expected local advertising growth yelp also cutting its revenue guidance could be on pace for the worst single day ever. hertz shares going the opposite way they're rising this morning. hertz's earnings and revenues topping estimates. shares of activision blizzard are under pressure. the company reporting its third straight quarter of declining active users the call of duty maker did beat forecasts, not enough, though.

that stock down 9% you have a stock down nearly 30%, up 20%, and down more than 9% that's volatility. let's turn to retail the world's biggest single one-day shopping event will kick off this weekend it's called singles day. it matters a whole lot to alibaba. let's get out to arjun kharpal who sat down with alibaba's ceo ahead of single day. good work there. what did the ceo of alibaba have to say >> brian, i want to quickly kick off for our european and u.s. viewers who don't know much about singles day, an annual event that happens every year on november 11th. you see alibaba discount massively thousands of products across its platforms from cars to hotel rooms to electronics it started in 2009. that year alibaba had sales of just under $8 million fast forward to 2017, that

figure was over $25 billion. daniel zhang has pledged in 2018, the tenth anniversary of the event, will be the largest ever as you said, i managed to silt down with him and asked him what his plans are for this year's singles day and what he meant by that statement let's listen in to what he had to say >> today i think more and more people when they join november 11th, join this shopping day for customers they want more shopping for business people they are not only thinking about sales on that day, they are thinking more about, like, customer engagement, acquisition of the new customers. how to innovate new products to their customers. i call this as olympics for all these business people.

>> a lot of people think of alibaba as an e-commerce company. you look, i've been in china for a few weeks. it's got food delivery, logistics, payments. all of that is involved in singles day. they hope that will make it the biggest singles day ever it is perhaps the toughest singles day for the company with the tariff war, worries about consumer strength. those are all things alibaba will have to navigate and they hope consumers will be willing to spend the market will be watching this closely. alibaba shares are down over 13% this year. so investors will be hoping it will be a record breaking singles day on the cards this year >> i was going to ask you about that, you wretch frensed treferk alibaba was a $200 stock here, it's now $149. did he reference anything about the trade war or the president or u.s. policy

>> he did say the trade war is not good for anyone. i asked about how he plans to navigate the business through this tough trading environment he said the trend of millennials going on to shop in china will not stop consumption will continue to increase and he said alibaba is a platform it's a place where foreign brands who find it difficult to crack the chinese market alone need alibaba to enter the market he says that trend will not stop many foreign brands who list their products here. he says those two trends should help the company navigate trade tensions and headwinds from the macro economic environment of course he said the trade war is not something that anybody wants. >> no. great interview there. appreciate you bringing it to us arjun kharpal, thank you very much see you soon. up next, is this a big sigh

of relief for stocks and your investments? and later what china unveiled that should have all news anchors terrified that guy he needs to be stopped we'll tell you why stick around cal: we saved our money and now, we get to spend it - our way.

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finisar is being acquired for $26 a share in cash and stock by i-vi inc the deal carries an equity value of 3$3.2 billion finisar stock up 28% in the premarket. in d.c. there's new fallout after president trump fired attorney general jeff sessions tracie potts is live in the nation's capitol with more >> now we're seeing demonstrations to protect this russia investigation a lot of focus on sessions replacement, matthew whitaker, a man seen on the inside according to sources as loyal to president trump.

>> reporter: day one on the job, acting attorney general matthew whitaker is already sparking protests >> absolutely no one in the united states of america is above the law. >> trump is not above the law! >> reporter: rallies popped up all over the country from seattle to florida to chicago. >> they must stop and follow the law and let mueller continue his work >> reporter: robert mueller's new boss has been openly critical of the russia investigation, even suggesting how to shut it down. >> that attorney general doesn't fire bob mueller but just reduces his budget so low that the investigation grinds to a halt >> reporter: that's why critics insist whitaker should not oversee the investigation. >> because he prejudged the issue. >> reporter: the white house says there is no reason for whitaker to hand off oversight

>> why would he be recused >> reporter: democrats are asking the white house and law enforcement to make sure records from mueller's russia investigation are not destroyed. if records are destroyed it could be a federal crime brian? >> tracie potts, thank you very much still ahead, keep calm and invest on. that's what your next guest says you should be doing right now. why he's giving you the all clear for your money for the next year and a half that's next. for your heart... your joints... or your digestion... so why wouldn't you take something for the most important part of you...

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could it be a november to remember the dow on pace for its best week in months we're down right now but anything could happen. crude alert. oil falling deeper into a bear market will it break below $60 a barrel gasoline prices could fall again. and maybe a stealth way to bet on amazon's hq2 or two hq2s. we'll tell you what that is and how you can profit as "worldwide exchange" rolls on welcome back happy friday i'm brian sullivan let's kick off the second half

of the program with the top stories you need to know about with frank holland shares of disney moving higher the company reporting a record profit last quarter thanks to the strength of its studio business disney alsoannouncing its streaming service will launch late next year. procter & gamble is looking to make some changes they will reorganize into six smaller business units each of those units will be broken out by product category we'll hear from the ceo later this morning. yelp shares plummeting this morning. revenue numbers falling short of analyst estimates. yelp issued weak guidance for the upcoming quarter brian, back over to you. >> that's going to be the disaster of the day. that stock down huge this morning. let's check on the other headlines including a terrible situation in melbourne, australia overnight. frances rivera has more on that. >> one person is dead and two

more were injured after a stabbing spree in melbourne. witnesses say a knife-wielding suspect got out of a burning truck and attacked three people. the man then tried to attack an officer who was forced to shoot him. the suspect died of his injuries the man was a person of interest to australian intelligence agencies. mass devastation in northern california as a fast-moving wildfire scorches 20,000 acres and continues barrelling down at a rate of 80 football fields per minute all night residents have been driving through an inferno trying to escape tens of thousands have been forced to evacuate two fire fighters have been injured. even kim kardashian and her family had to leave. and ruth badbader ginsberg e hospital recovering from three fractured ribs i don't know if you've seen on

twitter, people are volunteering to give up their own ribs to save her saying she needs to be wrapped in bubble wrap, anything to keep her healthy. >> the notorious rbg as she is called thank you very much. we're just a little over halfway through the 5:00 a.m. hour in new york stock futures are down the dow's implied open is off by 77 points, but even if we finish the day like this, we are still on pace for the best week for the dow since february hard to believe but it's true. the markets had a nice rally after those midterm elections finished up. in the bond market, bond yields were a big story a few months ago, they're becoming a story once again, yields are at 3.208.

european markets are down across the board. oil quickly becoming a big story. it's getting bigger. a couple months ago we talked about the likelihood of $100 oil, now oil prices could drop below $60 a barrel today that's the first time that's happened since march 8th huge amounts of inventories in the united states, iran continues to sell oil around the world. let's talk more about the markets in general and bring in mark tepper of strategic wealth mart ner partners you believe history may paint a pretty nice picture for investment returns going forward. how come >> i think you need to stay invested right now we're not seeing any recession in sight whatsoever until mid

2020 recessions and bear markets typically require an earnings contraction, not just a deceleration that's all we've seen so far the latter stages of bull markets, they're always going to be jittery the performance improves enough so you can get some pretty attractive risk returns. there's been nine bull markets since the 1960s. if you were to break down each and every one of those bull markets into tenths, the average annual performance is 20%. only two outperform that average. the first one is the best performing, that's self explanatory because you're coming out of a bear market with an annualized return of 60%. the second best performing is the last one with the annualized return of almost 40% if you decide to leave the party early you will miss the grand

finale >> i'm shocked by the number of times that's happened. what you're saying is that effectively if we just get the average or even the lower side of the historical average, it's still good >> yes you don't want to bail early you leave the party early, you miss the grand finale. it's okay to leave during the grand finale, get ahead of the traffic on the way home, but you don't want to miss it. the market typically ends a bull market with a boom i've heard people talking about potentially downshifting equity exposure, raising cash, shifting more into bonds. quite frankly it doesn't make sense. there's nothing we're seeing now that leads us to believe that we are going to enter a bear market

and der naturalfinitely not a rn we're looking at 24% earnings growth year over year. we're projecting just over 10% for next year. as long as we experience earnings growth the markets should continue to advance at this stage of the game you see earnings continue to grow and multiples continue to contract if earnings do grow at 10% next year, maybe we only see a 7% gain in the market >> i love history, i hope you're right because we all have 401(k)s, 529s. but you have to also consider that we're in a rising rate environment, "b," the fed is is delevering, and you have an unusual political situation in washington, d.c. i wonder how much history may not be followed this time. >> yeah. i have to throw more history at you here

typically the direction of interest rates with regards to the fed funds rate and also the movement of the stock market are positively correlated until the ten-year treasury hits around 4% then it can invert right now we're at 3.2 we are comfortable with the market continuing to raise rates. again, some research has also told us when you look historically the market can typically withstand an increase in that ten-year yield of about 1% over the course of the year before it hurts equity markets we feel this can go up to 3.7 before it hurts stock prices >> mark tepper, strategic wealth partners appreciate it. have a great weekend >> you, too. lets find out what else you'll be talking about today including a terrifying story out

of china it may be the end of us. >> i'm feeling some fear here. china unveiling the world's first artificial intelligence news anchor. take a look. >> artificial intelligence intelligence anchor, this is my first day. my voice and appearance are modeled. >> that's real it learns from live broadcast video. it can read text in realtime the artificial intelligence anchor was developed by china's state-run media agency a lot of people are calling this unsettling he said he will work tirelessly, 24 hours a day hard for you and i to compete. >> he doesn't take sick days he doesn't complain about the cafeteria food here's why that guy will never take our job you can manipulate that dude he'll read whatever is on the screen if you and i see something wrong or stupid, we'll look at it and be like -- i'm not doing that.

this guy, you could put propaganda -- i don't know if we can manipulate facebook, we can manipulate that guy my whole goal is to ruin him >> you will throw salt on him. >> anything i can. plus listen to him can you read it like he does >> yeah. one of the world's largest -- it doesn't work christy's is auctioning off a 19 carat pink diamond next week it's the biggest pink diamond christy's has sold it is supposed to fetch between 30 million and $50 million. i don't speak in carats. that's about three quarters of an inch across can you imagine a diamond that big on your hand >> somehow the word kardashian will be thrown in this story >> who else would wear one that big. 'tis the season for advent

calendars. all the wine advent calendars are sold out if you have to have the holiday treat, it comes with cheese, too. the wine calendars popping up on ebay while the calendars sold for 69.99 in stores, ebay is asking for $400 plus shipping $400 plus shipping >> that doesn't include the wine that goes into the advent calendar >> little bottles of wine come with it. >> the wine comes with it? >> like little mini bottles. >> not the full-size >> no, mini bottles. >> i want full-size. >> what about a bunch of mini ones >> what about a whole thing of wild turkey. >> depends on how you celebrate your holidays. >> well, apparently. frank, thank you very much now to the sports world. steelers looked good last night. they hosted carolina

the panthers scored first. everything looked good but big ben roethlisberger came back throwing a 75-yard touchdown. he tied it up. they built on that momentum. they won 52-21 that ties a record for the most points allowed by carolina i took carolina. still in the lead. a stealth way to bet on two amazon hq2s. diana olick will join us on the story. as we head out, another check on futures down about 96 points right now still on pace for a good week for the dow.

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>> you know it's a good friday when you play the jayhawks the jayhawks minnesota. welcome back it's times square, 5:45. 4:45 in minneapolis. stock futures not looking their best right now they were down 72 points about four minutes ago now they're down 117 points. so the dow futures have been sliding a bit. the way futures trade, it's volume based the later it gets in the morning, more people coming in, more action. that's why futures are volatile especially at this hour. the dow on pace for a good week.

if the market opens like this, it will be less good certainly than it was. the buzz about amazon potentially splitting its second headquarters between new york and d.c. dominating the headlines. the question for you is this, who wins if amazon does head east diana olick has more on that story. >> good morning. amazon has not confirmed its choice or choices for h q2 but investors are making bets on the stock. apartment reits are in play. avalon bay is the clear winner they have direct poexposure they have been there for over a decade with several high rises for manhattan overall, which is just across the bridge from long island city, other beneficiaries are udr. they have about 10% of their portfolio exposure in manhattan and brooklyn

>> picking long island city is huge for manhattan there's been a tremendous amount of supply that's been built in manhattan along with the boroughs rent growth has not been great this cycle in part because of the glut of high-end apartments. >> around crystal city, reits that could benefit there, avalon and camden trust most important to any of these reits is how many of the new amazon employees will come from within whatever market it picks and how many will move in because that's how many will need apartments or houses or aft effect the remarket in some way. >> wherever they end up, amazon will have a marked effect on real estate. it's not a seismic shift but it will be a big deal >> right especially if you have a lot of

people moving in from out of town then the question is is it older folks looking for families or millennials coming in and going into the apartment sector. my guess is millennials. >> i know they're talking about long island city and d.c., hudson yards in new york city, 8 million square feet -- >> that might be pricey. depends on the salaries. all these unknowns you have to look at where they'll go, what they'll spend and how many come in still unknown. these reits are in the right places >> if you know new york, they could buy roosevelt island, and make it amazon island. >> put it right there. >> you can take the tram over to amazon's hq22. good stuff time to find out what's coming up on "squawk box." andrew ross sorkin has a preview. >> we have a big show for you. we have a big show coming to you live from lincoln city ron baron, one of the great

legendary investors has his annual conference today. we'll be with him talking about markets, stocks and we will be talking about tesla. elon musk and that company just yesterday announcing a new chairman we will have a discussion about that later in the program we'll talk to ken molis here on set a stand-out star in terms of the wall street banking world. from the old milken diaspora you always go out to that milken conference we have a lot more >> the cell phone company?

>> yes >> we talked about them 20 years ago. that company has a heck of a history. >> it's got a heck of a history. ron baron is a bull on that company. we will talk to that ceo and ron. >> still bullish on tesla? >> still bullish on tesla? we'll find out he's putting up his fist in success. i think that's a success fist. beginning of success is what he's screaming out to me bullish on tesla we'll talk about that. >> looking forward to it, andrew still to come, the week that was. you have had an election, a fed interest rate decision, wild market swings, we're not even done with the week yet we're wrapping up a crazy few days on wall street and digging if what you need to watch on the week ahead ♪

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welcome back futures are sliding. dow down about 117 points right now. still on pace for a good week but anything can happen. we've seen crazy market volatility let's talk about all of this with art hogan we're on pace for a good week. do you and your team believe that the volatility that has been the hallmark of the last couple of weeks is over or is there more to come >> probably we have several more boxes to check to get out of this volatility land we're in. the month of october was the exception, not the norm for the fourth quarter i think the fourth quarter will be better. we need to get through a bottoming process technically, and really good volume we saw that piece of it. we need to get the midterms

behind us. no surprises the fed cracked the window open a bit yesterday in their commentary about business spending moderating. that is a sign that they are truly data dependent and won't be robots in '19 the big hurdle we have and the thing that will cause the most volatility is news around the china conversation do we find an exit on the trade war with china i think whether it's the g20 at the end of the month or feedback going back and forth with the administration, how we deal with china and can we get that resolved >> we had hints or rumors last week or before the midterms that maybe we have a deal with china. larry kudlow threw some water on that if the president says we are meeting with china this week and we're getting a deal, do you think the market rallies bigley?

>> i do. i think the market rallies bigley the thing that held back guidance is the unknown about trade. all those things that circle around trade and the unknowns there. when you think about the fed and what will make them more aggressive, when those input costs come up, it causes inflation. you will see a spike in inflation that's not economic and allt of decisions not being made because of unknown quantities what is mo >> what is more important, china and trade or the fed >> china and trade the fed has proven they're willing to be data depend dent that's all we need them to do. as long as we hear things like we heard yesterday, that's good news for the last five years, the fed has never hit their target, they won't do it again this time.

something will slow them down. they will take a pause i think it's china get china behind us this market could scream. can the dow rally if the ten-year goes to 3.25 or 3.50? we're back in that direction >> i think the way we felt about a 3 handle on the ten-year in february when the market collapsed almost 9% and the way we feel about it now is two different places we are in a better place to understand drivers behind 3.25, 3.50 -- and i don't think 3.50 is reachable until the middle part of next year. but that's okay. you have to understand the higher that yield goes, the more money that attracts in in terms of competition for sovereign debt, the u.s. still looks the best globally. >> the music says we have to leave it there no time for the rbi this morning. we'll see you back here soon

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wild ride in the market continuing futures today pointing to a lower open on wall street. triple digits last i looked. we'll talk to ron baron about rising interest rates, volatility in stocks and some of his biggest investments. i think you know what i'm talking about. he always comes here to talk about tesla. stocks are on the move disney rising on earnings, but yelp and activision blizzard posting big declines in early trading a full rundown straight ahead. and the fda will ban certain

flavors of e-cigarettes from convenience stores in an effort to curb use by kids. it's friday, november 9, 2018. it's friday, i'm in love ♪ live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box. >> good morning. welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm melissa lee along with joe kernen andrew ross sorkin is reporting live from the annual baron investment conference, he will join us in a bit with guest host ron baron. and i guess he will talk about tesla, which you eluded to >>