itininthg. it's like, you know, we're throwing a party, you're the guest of honor, and, hey, you may even walk out with $1 million. all: "deal or no deal"! "deal or no deal" is back. welcome to "street signs." i'm joanna versace and these are your headlines crude makes a comeback after the longest losing streak since 1984 as saudi arabia says it will cut output with the kingdom's oil minister telling cnbc that the selloff is unfounded. >> market gets it wrong occasionally, as they did a few weeks ago on one side and they're doing it again on the other today, but ultimately it will swing to a reasonable middle. alibaba smashes yesterday's

singles day record racking up more than $30 billion in sales in 24 hours. sap snaps up survey software maker qualetrix in a deal made by $8 billion. it is sending shares in the german tech firm lower. amid brexit uncertainty we speak to bank of england broadbent who joins me on set for the next half an hour. welcome, everyone, to our special edition of "street signs. now here are your top stories at this hour. oil prices are surging after sau saudi arabia said it was cutting supply by half a million barrels per day in december. we'll hear from saudi energy minister later in the program and why he thinks markets have been getting wrong on crude

prices. s&p shares are down after the german software group announced that $8 billion acquisition of qualetrix specializes in collects dagg at that on customers, and products. it has a valuation of $6 billion before sap made the offer. and wildfires in california are set to be the deadliest in state history as the death toll rose to 31 on sunday around 250,000 people have been evacuated so far as firefighters battle to contain the blaze. and sterling is trading lower ahead of a crunch cabinet meeting tomorrow as prime minister theresa may continues to battle strong divisions within her party over brexit reports over the weekend suggest may is facing an uphill struggle to sell her plan to officials while the threat of further government resignations loom large. with that, let's bring in my

special guest today, brett broadbent. he joins me for the next half an hour on the show. >> thank you very much. >> thanks for taking the time. we're going to start off by asking you a very simple question on your a setsmessessmf the numbers. q3 was a pretty strong number so far. most of the numbers seem to be weak weaknesses on the manufacturing pmi side how do you see the economy as we head into the fourth quarter. >> reasonably weak a lot of the last two years the quarterly pattern has been up and down. we had a weak first quarter. three as you say was quite strong that was partly a recovery from earlier in the year, partly flattered by good weather, we think. so, yes, the signs are that

we'll have somewhat weaker growth in the fourth quarter that said, even though gdp growth has been weaker than the precrisis, it's been strong enough to allow the unemployment rate to fall further reaching 40 year lows and that in turn has been strong enough to push up wage growth, which is higher and higher any time since the crisis so we can't put growth figures, but in terms of inflationary pressure, we are seeing some signs of that domestically now >> just from the gdp itself, you have a 1.5% growth >> there are still early days as far as data are concerned. current best case is .3. we don't see any reason to part from that.

>> now in general when you look back you say data has been somewhat disappointing for the big part of the year we did see a rebound in the third quarter. some of that was on the back of weather effects. what do you point that down to how much do you think is uncertainty over brexit versus other exoj again news factors. >> some of those all of those things might play some part. the economy has been operating with a pretty sluggish trend in underlying productivity growth i think the other thing we've seen is the drag on business investment from uncertainty about brexit compared with the figures in comparable economies, business

investment is quite well correlated across countries. that effect, i think, is intensified through the course of 2018. >> then one of the big surprises for this year is even though investment has been hit, consumption remains quite resilient. >> that is true. i would say qualitatively that's been a similar pattern to what we've seen since the referendum consumption has held up reasonably well. investment has been weak zbler now this week we get a whole bunch of other data to watch out for. inflation numbers, wage inflation. the retail sales numbers as well do these numbers actually matter i mean, does the data that's coming out now pale in comparison to what might happen in march if there's a no deal brexit, for example? how important are economic indicators in this uncertain world that we're living in >> well, they matter they matter.

they continue to have some bearing on the inflationary pressure and that's what we are focused on you are right, on the other hand, that there's a sequence of events over the next two, three months that could change the outlook so both are true. >> before we start talking about brexit, i want to ask you about wage growth as well because that's something that you referenced i want to hear where you stand on that debate we are seeing the fastest pay growth for a decade. bonuses, we had wage growth 36.1% and some people saying that skilled labor shortages are the most acute since 1974. is this a full stone on pay growth or is this for real are we going to see pay growth in the 3% bracket? >> we've certainly seen stronger figures, not just in the

official data but in many of the pay services that we've seen in so many years. and certainly the mpc, i'm not going to count myself in this, always believed that the same old rules applied, that is the labor market tightened you would see faster wage growth and we'll see. whether it continues depends on that labor market tightness carrying on and economic growth being sustained. certainly on our own forecast, which as you know conditioned on a smooth brexit outcome, we see wage growth staying above 3% throughout the next three years. >> assuming it will revise lower your natural rate of unemployment. >> yes, we've edged that and

wlee take another look at it in the new year, but at first glance i say the wage data are in line with our current estimates of natural rate. >> the latest situation report hadn't included the fiscal stimulus coming out of the autumn budget. will that be a good tail wind in the coming years >> it's certainly a material change in government spending and prospect i mean, the chancellor flagged those plans might result depending on the brexit outcome but as things stand, yes, it's a material increase in government spending and overall domestic demand. >> so you've got wage growth creeping up around 3%, you've got potential tail winds from the fiscal stimulus and you said from the latest wage report that you see excess demand in 2019.

in normal circumstances if you can put brexit aside for a second, which i know is impossible,s wouldn't the bank be putting it ready for a wage hike >> when i ended my working life, which admittedly was a long time ago, one got much bigger wage increases, many more of them than we've become accustomed to in the recent past we're talking about one 25 basis point increase per year or marginally more than one i don't think that's an enormous difference these are pretty small margins now it is true on our forecast that you need some rate increases given everything else we're assuming >> even with 65 basis points worth of hikes, you still have

your cpi medium term target at 2.1%. >> 2.1 it is true probably that given everything else we're assuming, which is a big given, then the yield curve we had in finalizing the recent wage report had been marginally too flat to meet our objectives but i emphasize the uncertainties about all the things in the forecast and i said a moment ago in particular that we conditioned the forecast on an assumption that brexit will be smooth, which more or less implies that we'll have a transition period during which the existing trading rules applied. >> of course it's massive if they're limited and gradual. can we still interpret that to mean roughly one hike a year then >> i don't think it means that precisely, no. i mean, we first used that

phrase and i think it was a very good way of describing our view of the underlying path for interest rates in 2014 and we haven't done one per year then nor i think at the time did we have such a precise view of what that meant the important thing at the time and still now certainly then was to reassure people, not just your viewers in financial markets but throughout the country, businesses and households, that we didn't -- did not see the need, did not think it was likely that we'd have to engage in a very steep series of rate increases, which is what people might have remembered in days before the financial crisis when you began to hike interest rates i didn't think it meant anything so precise as less than one per year, it just meant more gradual and more limited given the

previous -- >> ben, we're going to talk more about some of the uncertainties and brexit in a short while. stay with us brett broadbent. saudi a ram ka has told cnbc its long awaited information is coming up. we've spent time speaking to the oil ministers here in abu dhabi. today i've been speaking to the big ceos in the industry, including bob dudley is the current market too volatile ever to see the aramco ipo? the big question many have has been put on the back burner for the next couple of years that's been endorsed that rather than looking at an ipo aramco recently took major stake in sabbic to basically increase their scope downstream as well

i caught a few words with ar min nasir. i asked him about the sabic deal, his ramifications on the ipo and i pushed hard on the date a dented investment for saudi and saudi aramco let's listen in to amin nasser >> we are a global leader when it comes to energy oil and gas we have global footprints in both and we have the leadership positions not only in terms of costs, in terms of market share, safety, technology and carbon footprint. when you look at the petro chemicals we are looking at footprint and we are as strong

upstream but no, sir as strong downstream we are doing fine, almost $5 million. we everlike hg more at integration. we talked about our strategy to shift 2 million barrels to petrochemical to three million two million with an aspiration to go to three mill. for that, we needed an acquisition, a significant acquisition. we provide saab bik with energy, fuel it has global footprint. it's the fourth company globally it has global footprint in 50 countries so it's started. >> do you think the ipo though would ever happen, sir >> yes, definitely the government announced that they are committed there is a lot of things and people are missing that

government did to facilitate the ipo. we would not have to go through all of these things and not to have the ipo not have a joint k company this year. we have a new concession agreement. it is therefore audited oil and gas. the board was changed. there was a new tax regime that was signed with the government there was a lot of reforms to facilitate the listing of sawed dpi aramco if you look at concession, reserve auditing, all the fiscal steps that are needed. you cannot list saudi aramco if you are going through a major transition. >> what about time frame when would you like to see the next date, i.e.,, the

announcement. >> you need to get it closed and we need to go to a lot of countries and then you need to have one full year of reflecting that acquisition in your balance sheets >> i'm doing my math, sir. are we talking 2020 for the ipo? >> i think his royal highness and his excellency talked about '21 so this is what -- at the end of the day, the government will decide when the market condition is good and that is what the government is saying. >> finally, sir, there's been a lot of ge owe poe hit call events has the appetite for investors changed for saudi on the back of

any geopolitical events? >> during fii we signed $54 billion of investment. this is saudi aramco the appetite is there. we have the value conference later this month in november and all our partners are going to be there. the investment is there. we have an energy city, king salman energy city and king salman international maritime complex and a lot of investment is going there so the appetite is actually there. we have the commitment for partners to invest in the kingdom. there you have it, we don't have a time frame possibly 2021. valuation something srs there. mohammad salman said he wanted

$2 trillion. there are a lot of concerns about this one and whether it is in the long grass or whether it will happen, but the focus as we heard there, very much on the integration of the sabbic deal also i thought it was interesting when i talked about the geopolitical events, armin nasser denied it. >> sterling heads south and the pressure increases on theresa may. (toni vo) 'twas the night before christmas, and all thro' the house. not a creature was stirring, but everywhere else... there are chefs, bakers and food order takers. doctors and surgeons and all the life savers.

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at comcast, it's my job to develop, apps and tools that simplify your experience. my name is mike, i'm in product development at comcast. we're working to make things simple, easy and awesome. welcome pack to "street signs. sterling is trading lower ahead of a crunch cabinet meeting tomorrow as prime minister theresa may battles with her party over brexit. there were talks held in

brussels amid a report by the sunday times which claims e.u. officials had rejected an element of the brexit proposal elsewhere, may faces the threat of revolt. there was a reuters poll released over the weekend saying 1/4 of the people surveyed, 25% now see a no deal brexit as the most likely scenario has your assessment of the no deal probability gone up over the last couple of weeks i said earlier that our forecasts are made on the assumption that there will be a deal and in particular the transition period agreed within the withdrawal treaty that

allows a smooth transition to the longer term trading relationship so we do not make an assessment at each point in time about the likelihood of something else it's a matter of assumption and the forecast i still think it's the most likely outcome, but obviously 250i6r over time it will ascend the currency one treks or the other, but for our part we have of to make a polgts to see where we are trying fwer. >> yours is available on the probability of a no deal starting to go up, that would shift the weighted average. >> let me be clear about what that weighted average applies to we have not made any definite

assumption about the eventual long-term future trading relationship that will be a matter of negotiation after the exit at the end of march next year what's being negotiated right now is the terms of that exit and the most crucial piece for the monetary policy is will there be a monetary period we average across them for the longer case scenario in each and every days we're assuming there will be a smooth transition to that eventual outcome. what matters crucially is negotiation of that transition period >> and are you assuming that -- and, again, this came up in the press conference and also in the inflation report that there may be a rebound in investment if a

transition deal is agreed in the next couple of weeks what -- how much time will you need to assess whether or not investment is going to come back assuming a deal does get agreed in the next couple of months >> we have a number of indicators as to what's happening to investment and the surveys of business are as important which come out with a bit of a lag and take some time to settle down there are several surveys. we have a couple of our own, one more informal from the bank's agents, one much more -- much bigger and more formal of executives or companies. those have been telling us for some time what i said earlier, namely that brexit uncertainty, concerns about stake in

negotiations and uncertainty with the numbers so if you believe that an agreement will be reached and that it cl a transition period, one can assume i think that a fair amount of that uncertain think fallaway and therefore investment projects that have been put on hold will come back. >> or equally investors could wait to see the result of the final trading agreements as well we know it's going to be at least 20 moments and that is a fair amount of time to put it off. in the referendum there was a weakening only through the course of this year. there would be a shorter term investment project that have been delayed in 2018 that were

the uncertainty to subside would then come back through the course of 2019 and 2020. >> now the latest inflation reports you released the box which is called the monetary response to brexit one paragraph in particular caught a lot of people's attention. is it right to assume that the bar for cutting rates on a disorderly brexit is higher now than post referendum >> we will do whatever we think we have to do to meet the agreement. the point of that box was to say that unfortunately either having a deal or not having a deal is not definitive you can imagine in which we get a deal and it can go up and down similarly, the case of no deal whether there's a similar ambiguity and that's because there are off setting reaction,

i think we've had growth pickup. on the other hand, sterling would presumably be stronger they act in different directions on inflation. >> do you think that growth could compensate for a stronger sterling on -- >> yes and the balance of those is difficult to predict in advance. similarly, if we were -- i think this is unlikely, but if we were to leave without a deal, then yes you might see additional spending the other crucial ingredient from the mix is the economy would be hit not by a wakening but in supply capacity potentially some of that supply. this outcome means this reaction

of interest rates sadly. >> it's not easy, is it? >> no. >> ben, thank you for joining us on "street signs," the deputy governor at the bank of england joining me this morning. also coming up on the show, as saudi arabia's oil minister says the markets sometimes get it wrong we'll have more from the summit in abu dhabi stay with us

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welcome to "street signs." i'm yes sanna versace and these are your headlines crude makes a comeback since 1984 as saudi arabia will cut output and they're saying the selloff is unfounded. >> markets gets it wrong occasionally as they did a few weeks ago and they're doing it again but ultimately the pendulum will swing to the middle. >> they say an ipo for the state oil producer will definitely

happen when market conditions are right. >> definitely there is the government announced that they are committed. there is a lot of things and people are missing that the government will facilitate the ipo. we will not have to go through all of these things and not have the ipo happening. sap snaps up qualetrics in a deal worth $8 billion but investors are put off by the price tag sending shares in the german tech firm lower sterling sinks amid brexit uncertainty as ben broadbent says brittain's departure from the e.u. could affect the economic outlook. >> there are a sequence of events over the next two, three months that could change the outlook materially all right, everyone. let's check in on how markets are trading this morning

we had a bit of a weak session in u.s. he cequities on friday a mixed session in asia and a rebound in the chinese shanghai. the move for europe is pretty grim we're trading about 1/4 of a percentage point weaker already about one hour into trading. you can see it's about 60% in the red, a little bit more let's talk about individual forces and see what the picture is like on an individual country. ftse 100 up .4% higher boosted by a rebound in basic resources. many of the miners are based in the u.k. that's giving that index somewhat of a boost. also weaker pound is helping then you have german, france, italy, all of those equity indices trading in the red mostly so for the german dax which is down about .80% already. talking about oil, let's take a look at how some of the major

oil companies are fairing. both of them are up 1%, a little bit more as far as brent is concerned. we're seeing a rebound of course in some of the oil majors as well they're all staging a rebound this morning of course, this after comments and some speculation that saudi arabia would be looking to reduce production as soon as next month as we head into the opec meeting that is the story for oil and gas. let's talk about some politics french president emmanuel macron has urged world leaders in paris to reject nationalism. he told an audience that included u.s. president donald trump and vladimir putin that nationalism was, quote, a betrayal of moral values he led a ceremony to mark the 100th anniversary of the

armistice. >> reporter: he came here for less than 48 hours, upset americans by not going to one of two american military cemeteries on his a again at that and seemingly upset some of the europeans upon arrival by criticizing president macron's plans for a european wide defense force in a tweet on his way over here to paris now this, of course, was a day, as you would expect, of somber pageantry designed to commemorate a very hard fought truce a century ago. it was actually president macron who used the fighting woshds as a challenge to his counterparts. >> translator: patriotism is the exact opposite of nationalism. nationalism is the opposite of patriotism

>> reporter: there were dozens of global leaders here in paris yesterday for this event outside and then many of them sat down for lunch together hosted by president macron the white house said that conversations during that meal focused on issues like syria, like saudi arabia, like north korea. president macron and angela merkel promoted the strength and importance of multi-lateral approaches to solving conflict, something we know president trump has frequently criticized as a world view. he avoided a peace forum. >> thanks for bringing us the latest from paris. let's switch gears and talk about oil. prices are rallying today after saudi arabia said it will cut crude exports by half a million barrels today in december.

steve is still at the conference in ab but dhabi. steve, it's interesting because it was only a month ago when you were in algeria and we were talking about bringing extra barrels for the markets and now all of the discussion is removing barrels from the market so much volatility. >> reporter: it's extraordinary, isn't it i did question the senior ministers, some of the most important men in oil over the last 24 hours. he was fit for purpose they were very back up and saying, no, it hasn't forecast particularly well, the fact that we've gone from this desire for these extra barrels to the desire to take so much off the table as well. of course, the common thematic from willem's report in paris and my report here is that the x factor is being provided by the united states. without naming names and pointing the finger, that is very much the big difference in these global oil markets, i.e.,, the u.s. is going to be very

aggressive on iranian sanctions and then decided to offer these very big wavers to eight key consumers as well which then took the bite to oil prices. swing forward to now, we are 20% lower to where we were at our highs in october they're scrapping to figure out what happens next. we'll go to some sounds now including the saudi king maker, the oil minister of saudi and i asked him about, well, what happens next, do you take barrels off the table? let's listen. >> all along we said that the market over reaction to the announcement on sanctions was driven by fear rather than by real shortages, and i said many times and repeatedly that the market is well supplied, that we had plenty of spare capacity available and that we were responding to every request for

every barrel since june of this year and once again, we've proven to be correct the markets is quite adequately supplied as i have been saying since the days in june when we were in vienna i've said it on a number of occasions. there is no reason for the fear that was gripping the market and the tightness that was prevailing was not a fit call tightness. it was an emotional reaction w. the situations that came out and the volumes showing them weekly data flipped from overreacting on one side to overreacting on the other side, but i assure you that we as a group of responsible producers are going to work and work hard to balance the market within a reasonable

corridor we will never guarantee a second prize. we will never guarantee zero growth in inventory. that's impossible. there will be fluctuations in inventory up and down and there will be fluctuations in prices up and down. market gets it wrong occasionally, as they did a few weeks ago on one side and they're doing it again on the other today, but ultimately the pendulum will swing to a reasonable middle. >> let's get straight to the next bit of sound because of course the saudis and russians have moved in lock step over these cuts and then the oil back on the table over the last two years as well. but will the russians go with the saudis down the road of cutting? the russians are at a post soviet high in terms of their production, right? about 11.4 million barrels a day. will the russians be cutting as well i asked mr. novak. >> translator: everything will

depend on the necessity, the expedsens si and the concept of various decisions. as you know, russia is very flexible we have been participating in this agreement for a year and a half we are implementing this agreement and if such a decision is necessary for the market and all the countries are in agreement, i think that russia will undoubtedly play a part in it but it's early to talk about this now we need to look at this question very carefully >> reporter: the strength of opec has been questioned, of course wall street journal report which i asked them about as well, whether saudi was thinking or it was just a think tank about it how strong is the other members i.e., iran and saudi how strong is the relationship of opec plus between russia and saudi as well. i spoke to bob dudley about the strength of relationship the reason why i asked bob dudley is because they have massive interests in the middle

east they have massive interests in a 20% stake in the biggest oil producer in russia and huge u.s. shale interests as well. bob dudley's a unique will be good >> the coalition is stronger than people speculate. i think russia doesn't have the ability to turn on and off big fields like can happen in the middle east. a lot of things have to dial up and down it's a debate in russia, we know that but i fully expect there to be coordination to try to keep the oil price within a certain fairway. >> reporter: the aramco sound we've had on, there's a lot of moving parts in this story as well when you have three titanic producers globally, let's go through them, they are producing a vast amount of oil you have saudis producing it and

you have the russians at 11.4 million barrels. a post soviet high you have the u.s. producing according to the eia, 11.6 million barrels a day. these are huge, huge levels. who's going to tlan in and stop that downparticular in the pliess of course and the concerns had been a negative factor what if a country that has vast natural resources can suddenly get their act together they can move from 30 year lows from production, i'm talking about venezuela between 1 million to 1.5 million a day, if they were to get investment from the chinese, what would that do to price that is a scenario that people are beginning to talk about as well corvedo who is the general in charge of the venezuelan military, unless they decide to pass from december onwards, that

might throw something innocent into it. they all interplay back to you. >> you have to make a very compelling case even though it's in a bear market that's steve live from abu dhabi. as some 250,000 people have been evacuated across california, it has already become the most destructive wildfire in the state's history. nbc's don scheneman has the latest. >> reporter: fires are still burning across california. >> it was a wall of flames came through. >> reporter: while firefighters tirelessly battle the flames. >> we've been fighting the wools see fire for the past few days. >> the winds have returned and

we're expecting this wind event to go through next tuesday. >> reporter: those winds not only fuel the fire but also spread it. firefighters worked to keep small fires from growing >> basically you have a lot of little secretaries that didn't burn when the main fire came through. >> reporter: the state's biggest fire is the saj kra men attorney-client privilege bus. >> many remain under evacuation orders but others chose to stay. >> this was our dream house and we purchased it four years ago i wasn't going to let it go and walk away from t. i was going to stay and do the bits i could. >> in bell canyon, keith clark toured what's left of his barbecue global home

>> reporter: a dream home left in ruin. nbc news >> devastating images there. also coming up on our show, $30.8 billion in 24 hours, but still not good enough for the markets. find out why another record-breaking singles day disappointed china watchers.

welcome back to the show top house democrats say they will protect an ongoing investigation into russian meddling when the party takes control of the lower chamber in january. the promise comes amid calls to president trump's acting attorney general to recuse himself from overis seeing the probe. italy could reportedly reduce its 2019 growth forecast to reach a budget deal with the european commission. that is according to a number of european italian papers. they gave room until tuesday, until tomorrow, to present a new spending plan. the european commission also warned that rome could reach the 3% deficit limit by 2020 but

economy minister said that the government is supporting the main pillars of its budget elsewhere ecb vice president says italy's budget concerns have reached a concern over the debt shares have been suspended since they think they could inject $317 million uros they need more to bolster the base shares are down 60% in the last three months. elsewhere, chinese ecommerce giant alibaba has cracked the $30 billion mark for singles day. this year's sale over the last 24 hours what's more important, the absolute number, $30 billion

unprecedented or the growth number >> i think both figures are closely watched by the market. this is one that has to be put into context here. we have to remember, this is the tenth anniversary of the singles day event. every year the bar continues to get set higher there is no low base the base is very high. when we're talking about slow growth, it's still 27 pores percent and if you look at some of the brands we are being sus segful with, it's u.s. brands that are considered luxury here in china, apple, starbucks, nike those are doing very well. this was singles day which was perhaps marred by the headwinds facing the company it's also dealing with the u.s. giant in trade wars.

he actually addressed the stock market, the share price for all of the company and explained his reasoning why he thinks the share price mass fallen so much. let's listen in to what he has to say. >> i think a lot of investors get it wrong number one, china is not as bad as people think and, number two, alibaba has some unique aspects really riding that secular trend and when you talk about digitizing the economy, alibaba is uniquely positioned so they can serve their consumers better >> the trade war, of course, is a stre hot topic and the senior management of alibaba spoke about the importance of globalization. he said, look, many trends are playing into alibaba's favor the middle class are coming online and the middle class are

spebldsing more on higher values as well. and of course foreign brands are still wanting to dmoom china let's listen in to what he had to say. >> i've been thinking about what the future of singles day is many people are asking the question of curiosity. i would like to say that the future of singles day will step forward based on 200 billion today and it will become different for sure only with a difference we can step up to 300 billion to 500 billion and then to 1 trillion. >> alibaba would call this a very successful sickels dangles. it's providing bigger macro economic head winds facing it. >> it's down $30 billion

that's a lot of money. thank you for bringing us the latest from shanghai for how singles day stacks up, head over to cnbc.com. let's take a quick look at how u.s. futures are shaping up on this very first day of the trading week dow opening up a little bit weaker nasdaq 1 point higher. indeed, after that big tech selloff on friday, all eyes will be on the performance that is it, i'm joanna versace worldwide exchange is coming up next thank you for watching (vo) gopi has built her business with her own two hands.

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it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc. crude alert. oil is higher. sawudi arabia changing its tune now talking about cutting production. a new retail record. a major story in california. wildfires in california. a megadeal to tell you about in the data space this morning. the one stock tumbling as the fda looks to ban a certain type of cigarette the full details on