iri data strong. >> john? >> met life, met judge unusual activity, 10,000 calls, bought it during the show >> wrap it up for me, pete >> l brands has been slammed, sitting here at near lows. still plenty of up side when you look at how cheap this is, i like this name. >> guys, thank you thanks so much for watching. power lunch begins now thank you very much. i'm tyler mathison the president's top economic adviser says the u.s. and china are talking again now on trade and takes issue with what he calls off base comments from another member of the president's team, we will go inside the domestic trade tussle in washington. plus, stocks pushed higher following those comments by larry cuddlkudlow right here on. is trade still the biggest fear

factor for this market maybe not. amazon getting more than $2 billion in incentives for picking new headquarters new york city and northern virginia is this money well spent by taxpayers or just another off the charts case of corporate well fare for one of the wealthiest companies in the world. power lunch starts right now welcome to power lunch, i'm melissa lee. the dow is under pressure, the s&p and nasdaq carving out some mod et gains at this point both off session highs, still trading below 200 moving averages oil record breaking losing streak crude oil is down for a 12th straight day, hitting its lowest level in a year. caterpillar and 3m, the best perform performers home depot adding pressure, despite beating com store sales.

tyler? >> thank you very much melissa, trade tensions heating up today but not between the u.s. and china, between two members of the president's economic team. elan mouy joins us to explain this >> they don't call it a team of rivals for nothing first it was peter navarro, w n warning wall street globalists to stop pressuring the president to cut a deal with china then today larry kudlow delivered this epic clap back. >> he was not speaking for the president, nor was he speaking for the administration, his remarks were way off base, they were not authorized by anybody i think he did the president a great disservice >> you see the divisions within the white house on full display there, and that has been one of the key complaints of the chinese, they don't know who is speaking for the president both sides appear ready to at least come back to the table treasury secretary mnuchin has

had a phone call with one of china's top trade officials, he is expected to visit d.c. soon kudlow said it's happening at all levels of the chinese and u.s. governments >> we are again talking with china, and i think that's very, very, very positive. the president initiated a phone call, with president xi, we now know that we will in fact discuss trade at the g-20 meeting in argentina >> no word yet on a date for a visit by china's vice premiere, guys back over to you >> trade is just one issue weighing on stocks this day. bob pasani has the litany for us robert >> trade is the big issue. i want to show you the s&p in the middle of the day, because when larry kudlow came out with that famous -- now famous broadside against mr. in a vash row, we rallied.

good 15 points, you can see we're drifting a little lower. all the sectors that were trade related rallied. emerging markets, metal stocks semiconductor stocks the industrials in general all of those sectors rallied on those comments from mr. kudlow here there's three or four, and those are what move the markets. you saw today, china tariffs move the market. you saw global slowdown issues, europe and china issues hurting the market overall dollar strength has been an issue for a while. there's your four horse men that move the markets on a daily basis. you can see this, bank of america does it every month. 225 fund managers. six straight months, china trade war, six straight months, the biggest worry. fed tight thing and the economic slowdown in china, also number three on the list. i want to note, and i've been noting the last couple days about the russell 2000, notably

outperforming the market the nasdaq is only down 10%. the russell under performing even the technology stocks a lot of people trying to figure out what exactly this means. there's a camp of people who note higher rates are a challenge. but generally the small caps have had weaker economic growth this quarter the third quarter than the s&p 500. generally the booech is not as great as the s&p 500 some people are trying to argue this is presizing slower economic growth in the first half of 2019 this is hotly debated. bottom line, melissa, a lot of people are taking note of that decline in the small caps. best to you. >> when you're looking at a debt cross personally people start getting worried >> 1500 day. that's what that is about. >> exactly, losing momentum. apple, the dollar, small caps, which is a bigger concern for the market let's bring in richard bernstein advisers

multistrategists with wells fargo asset management good to have you with us, i'll kick it off with you it feels like we're in a market that's being held hostage to various trade headlines. the fourth quarter is supposed to be a seasonably strong quarter. >> i think you nailed it on your head with the question the underlying economy is really hooking. to some extent these trade issues are shooting ourselves in the economic foot. and that's kind of been my story for a long time now, i don't understand the need for these issues to disrupt a healthy economy. so yeah, what you'll see is on days when trade goes to the back burner, the stock market goes up on days when trade comes to the front burner and looks terrible, the market goes down i think your question nailed it, melissa, the underlying economy is very good trade can easily derail the confidence >> it sounds like the market could be a gift right now.

if you're really a believer that the economy is cooking, and it's sort of these trade unknowns that are a concern then buying here in the longer term could be a great gift at the same time you have to believe there's going to be progress in trade, that this is not going to be -- i hate to say multiyear issue, it really could be at this point >> it really could be, but i think right now, investors, you have to look at this as, is this a gift or is this going to be a lump of coal a lot of it does hinge on your outlook for what's going to happen with trade negotiations and what's going to happen with the fed. as far as the trade negotiati negotiations, as richard was saying, you can see the relief in the markets as you get a positive trade headline. and the angst in the markets when you get the headline, similarly with the fed if it looks and sounds like the fed might hike until it hurts, and if that might happen sooner rather than later, you get a

down day with risk assets. for our perspective, when you're allocating capitol over the long term you can look through this and think, well, it will likely work out over time. but what is that time frame? and that's where in this type of environment, we think it's so important to remember the two cardinal rules of investing, which are diversification and patience sometimes these things need to take time to play out. and we're hopeful and expecting we will see some positive, some big trade deal announced by or before the november 30th g-20 meeting. that should be positive for the markets going into the end of the year >> you really expect that? >> well, the alternative expectation, you don't get an announcement like that, the market sells off president trump backtracks on that he's in close contact with negotiators, then you get a rally. president trump seems to be very sensitive. there may not be a powell put.

but perhaps there's a president trump put in the markets right now. >> let me get your reaction to what brian just said about the possibility of a big trade deal getting announced before the end of november meeting, number one. number two, i want to ask you a question about the american economy. that is whether and when you see the u.s. economy slowing and by how much >> well, the first question, when are we going to see a trade deal and when. i will honestly answer your guess is as good as mine i don't think anybody really knows. i think there's too many moving parts here, and some of the questions you were discussing in the interim to this segment, who knows, your guess is as good as mine i think more importantly for investors, it's not is the economy slowing, will profits grow slow, and i think the answer to that is yes, profits will slow in 2019, but not nearly as much as people are

anticipating right now you hear stories of peak earnings, peak earnings implies it will see negative growth rates next year. i would say the probability of seeing negative growth rates is extraordinarily low. what that may set up is for positive surprises as we go through the end of this year into early next year i think people's outlook for profits is much to bearish relative to the fundamentals going on in corporate land right now. >> thank you, both we appreciate it >> richard bernstein and jacob from wells fargo nbc news learning from sources that john kelly could be on the way out eamon javers has more. >> let's give you a quick roundup of what all the different media outlets are reporting at this hour

no definitive word on where we stand on all this officially nbc is reporting that john kelly has gotten on the wrong side of melania trump over some issues related to staffing and travel in the east wing, which is her domain here, and kelly may soon depart the president is discussing potential replacements now for kelly, and the likely removal of kirstin nilsson, the secretary of homeland security the washington post calling nilsson's departure to occur in the coming weeks not putting a specific time frame on that. and a white house official telling me a short time ago that they're not denying or confirming any of these reports at this point. all of it seems to be in the air for the time being we will see the president on camera later this afternoon, to get a sense of whether he wants to tell us what his plans are now that the midterm elections are behind us and the expected turnover in staff appears to be

imminent if not underway right now. >> what do you infer from the not confirming or denying response >> i think there's a lot of uncertainty. officials i talked to don't know where the ball is bunsing and are trying to figure it out themselves they can't leak it to me until they figure it out for themselves >> they can't leak it to me. secretary nielsen was general kelly's deputy at homeland, correct is it. >> yes she's someone he has a lot of faith in but she's not gotten alongwell with the president the president blames her for immigration policy at the border he doesn't like the way she's been handling that she's come under fire from the political left as well which blames her for the administration's policy of family separation. she's someone caught in the middle, intensely criticized by the president an the left. she's had the support of john kelly so far along in his

process, if john kelly's position is weakening, because ofs with either john bolton, the national security adviser or melania trump, that may diminish his ability to protect kirstin nielsen. coming up, the tesla facility >> this is it a massive facility, and eventually, the entire roof will be covered with solar panels when we come back, we'll take you inside the giga factory to show you how tesla is doing in its goal to cut battery costs. atto wn weluh comes up xfinity mobile is a new wireless network

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it could be up to 13 million square feet, and as we walked around here, and have driven around the facility, a couple things have stood out. the use of robotics, let's go inside the giga factory to give you some perspective about those robotics, there are 7,000 people working three shifts here, they're producing about 5,000 model battery packs per week when it comes to driving that efficiency, it's all about lowering battery cell costs. sam jaffey has been crunching the numbers from tesla, and all the automakers they don't release how much it costs to produce one battery cell he estimates that tesla is by far the industry leader. probably about $3040 lower than their competitors with the industry this shows you how the rest of the industry is trying to catch up with tesla. the director of automotive for tesla, he says they have a long ways to go to drive those costs

even further down. >> it's not frozen we have many improvement for the next month and years, that will allow us to reduce costs, and make the vehicles more affordable, which is our mission. >> why are battery costs so important? it's important because as tesla builds more model threes and sells lower price versions of the model 3, they need to bring down their battery costs, especially if they're expecting to maintain profit margins, they believe they can do that, when they reported a profitable third quarter, elon musk said he expects this company to maintain profitability. one key to maintaining that profit ability, driving down the cost of not only battery cells, but battery packs. very cool facility to check out, guys in the last two years, it's expanded massively can't wait to see what it's like

when we come back a year or two from now >> in terms of bringing down the cost of the current format of the battery, does that imply there won't be future form factor complainings? or huge pickups in terms of the efficiency of the battery itself, trying to bring down the cost of the batteries as they exist? >> well, it's the battery cell that they're working on. and part of that, and this by the way, this is a cell. and people say, well, how many cells are in a typical tesla vehicle? about 4400 it depends on the size of the battery pack within that vehicle, whether it's larger or smaller, you get about 4400 of those, they're constantly working on improving the energy density within those they're constantly working on driving those through the cells. a whole other part of the giga factory that we haven't been able to show you today

>> phil, thank you, what a tour in sparks nevada for us. >> amazon city in which city n.w those cities lured amazo what they had to give up and will it pay off? stay tuned so no matter what you trade, or where you trade, you'll only pay $4.95. fidelity. open an account today.

amazon finally making its picks, splitting the hq 2. we find diana olick.

another in long island city queens courtney reagan is there, and we're joined by greg leroy he thinks we need a more transparency when it comes to making deals with big corporations we begin with diana. >> melissa, don't call it crystal city any more. amazon is rebranding this everyone parts of pentagon city. it will partner with smith for the 25,000 new jobs. supporting those jobs will also add jobs, potentially totaling just over 40,000 and increasing employment here by 23 person now, in housing, avalon bay have a big rental department footprint here possibly from investors looking to cash in the median price of a home here, $600,000 virginia tech put out a statement saying, it's

innovation campus was a key reason for the choice. a 1 million square foot facility, bringing more tech students to the area finding skilled workers was the key to winning >> i think they like the idea of being able to come into our community here in northern virginia, and also having the workforce training available i talk to businesses every day, around the globe and they said to me, every day, ralph, if you can train our workforce, our businesses will thrive in the commonwealth of virginia more than half of the businesses will go to the commonwealth of virginia some of that going to the infrastructure, and the pedestrians bridge going straight over to national airport. you can probably hear the planes from here. >> you can >> courtney reagan is live in queens, the other side of h 2 q. >> this green building here behind me is part of what amazon will occupy in the beginning when they first move in.

the city says it's moving 1100 of its employees from this building into other areas to make way for amazon, there is a press conference ongoing right now between governor cuomo and bill de blasio we know that 25,000 jobs will be coming to long island city for amazon with, an average salary of $150,000. governor cuomo says the indirect impact plus nose 25,000 could create as much as 107,000 jobs that salary of 150,000 is almost double what the queens salary is, this is a 2 $1/2 billion investment from amazon 4 million square feet of office space. they're looking to occupy, doubling to 8 million square feet amazon will provide an incremental tax revenue of $10 billion over the next 20 years new york city says they're going to take some of that tax revenue and put it back into infrastructure improvements.

amazon is receiving $1.525 billion in incentives as it creates these new jobs they're going to be donating space to tech incubatoincubators some new green space, and also will be contributing to infrastructure this amazon development is the single biggest economic development in the city's history. the mayor is excited about it, as is the governor not everyone is, long island city councilman and state senator michael jenarios i don't know what happens to things like housing prices rental incomes are around $31. that's quite high, the median average price for a housing unit is $462,000. tyler, back over to you. >> our next guest data shows that amazon has already been

awarded more than $1.6 billion in incentives since the year 2000 the new headquarters could cost taxpayers even more. it's a watchdog group that tracks state and local economic development sub suddendies >> welcome, good to have you with us. >> good to be with you >> work depends on how you define it. we think people are too many states and cities for too many years already to pay amazon what it must do anyway. they have to have the data centers, because they're the biggest cloud computing community in the world the prime business model forces them to have warehouses close to all those household subscribers. we think -- and today, we're see willing more than $2 billion in subsidies being offered by virginia and new york for an expansion the company had to make >> and so let me turn the

question if the subsidies were not being offered and apparently new york city and crystal city arlington were not the ones who necessarily offered the most money to amazon. there were others that reportedly offered more. maryland, newark, new jersey among others, would you argue that these companies would have placed these headquarters in the same place absent the subsidies? >> i do. you're right newark offered 7 billion well new jersey st. louis offered 7.3 billion, they didn't make it, incentives almost never determine where a company expands or relocates they can't, because they're not the big cost variable. less than 2% of a company's cost structure. it's the business basis. and talent pool. >> talent is the number 1, 2 and 3 criteria for corporate headquarters like this >> they're going to hire brain

yaks they need a lot of talent. >> how does this stack up to past megadeals with cities were luring other headquarters. past ones have cost an average of $658,000 a job. per year obviously that counts that job for that first year, it really should be a.moramortized over te length of time >> the megadeal we put out is for the life of those deals, what we don't know yet for amazon, what's the whole denominator, we're struck by how amazon tries to control that computation by putting the incentive computation in its press release. we suspect as you already stated that the additional investments being made by virginia tech university belong in that equation as well

they're not in the press release by amazon, we think when the dust settles, it will be a more expensive deal than we know. >> the idea that there's a company as wealthy as amazon does an entrepreneur, who is the richest man in the world need this kind of taxpayer money? >>. >> no, they don't. this is a company worth almost a trillion dollars, a person worth 150, 160 billion himself no, of course they don't need it and rapid growing market share, growing at the expense of other retailers like sears that's now brunk that it's driven out of business there is churn in capitolism why should taxpayers pay for it. >> let me ask another issue, that one, i kind of new what your answer was going to be.

let me ask you another question about when jurisdictions do these kinds of deals does it open the door for other businesses maybe who are already there in the locality to come back to the jurisdiction and say, hey, you gave them this we've been a good citizen here for a long time. give us some incentives? >> it's absolutely the problem it's kind of a slippery slope problem. and frankly, we've documented how big businesses benefit to the detriment of small businesses in this space even though entrepreneurship is in trouble in this country it's hard to treat your existing corporate citizens fairly when you do a big company specific deal like this >> absolutely true thank you for your perspective today, we appreciate greg leroy from good jobs first, coming up, we will speak with amazon spokesman jay carney about what amazon will bring to the table

and presumably he will have sharp rebuttals for what you just heard. oil is tanking right now, get it, oil tanking down about 6% big canarys in the cole mines. the longest losing streak ever if it ends this way. what's causing the oil slick and how much lower it may go from here. we'll get a live report from california on the wildfires burning. the consequences underwater can escalate quickly. the next thing i know, she swam off with the camera. it's like, hey, thats mine! i want to keep doing what i love. that's the retirement plan. with my annuity i know there's a guarantee. annuities can provide protected income for life. learn more at retireyourrisk.org annuities can provide protected income for life.

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let's get a check on the markets right now, it's a mixed day. the dow has been under some pressure we're hugging the flat line by one point on the dow jones industrial average the s&p higher, modest when i off the session highs, they had been up more than a% earlier in the session. the real action, oil plummeting moments ago. >> take a look at prices right now, 56.13 we did break under the $56 mark. the steep losses more than 6%. this would be the 12th day of

losses that we've seen in terms of this crude oil plunge, if you will 20% of the gains would be wiped out in this month alone. this would be the biggest decline we've seen in the history of the wti contract in 1983, pretty significant here. some of the traders that i talked to thought we were going to see support at 60, we didn't see it, there is pleasure to the down side, which continues on the flip side. take a look at natural gas prices, breaking over $4 today actually seeing a 7 1/2 spike to the up side. that's because stocks on natural gas are a little lower than they've been over the last five years or so. as soon as the temperature gets cold, people get nervous about that, and they start buying it up into the winter >> thank you very much amazon has new places to call home for its second headquarters a new operations center in nashville. some critics question what

amazon can do for their city in exchange for the massive tax breaks promised to amazon. let's hear from amazon directly. amazon senior vice president of global corporate affairs and former white house press secretary for president obama. jay, welcome, good to see you. >> thanks for having me, appreciate it. >> we just had a guest on, and i'm sure you're prepared to answer all the questions, this one may be top of mind, we had a guest on from good jobs first. when i asked him, does one of the richest companies in the world led by one of the richest people in the world deserve the kinds of corporate tax breaks that amazon has negotiated, he had a clearance, and it was no why do you disagree? >> we're incredibly excited about today's announcement we're looking forward to establishing co equal headquarters in the long island city neighborhood in queens as well as in arlington across the

river from washington, d.c.. 25,000 jobs minimum from each location, averaging more than $150,000 a year in salary. these are high paying jobs, the kinds of jobs that communities across the country look for, hope for and in this case are glad to have the incentives are part of the process in every city across the country. if you look at some of the proposals that were put forward by cities that released them publicly our number one criterion was the availability of talent and the possibility of recruiting and luring new talent to come. we're competing with other companies for that talent. and they also have existing pools of talent.

that's why we ended up there we don't create the jobs, we don't get the incentives in both locations. if you look at the revenue streams that we created because of amazon's investments, multiples, well beyond the incentives we're getting, so these relative to what drove this process incentives were pretty small part of what we were after >> but they were a part, jay, right? that's the fact of the matter, if every single city across the country who was on that preliminary list said, you know what, amazon, you're rich enough, you should want to come to our cities, it would be a different story. >> we were excited to offer the opportunity. cities do this all the time. all the incentives we're talking about are widely available

they're relatively modest compared to other offers out there. also, compared to the revenue. we have openings for an additional 8,000 employees here. in addition to all those jobs we created here, another 53,000 indirect jobs have been created here another 2,000 small businesses have been created in the neighborhoods where we grew up here in seattle. the revenues that have come to the city and state because of amazon's presence here have been enormous, the benefits you see are well worth the investment, which is why cities, these are places with hard headed leaders. and they make these offers for the cities and we strongly agree with them.

these incentives take money from other purposes that are very needy. whether it is affordable housing, whether it is repairing subways here in new york city. whether it is schools, money that could be spent elsewhere where the needs are great. how do you answer that >> well, again i would say that if you look at the memoranda of understanding and the revenue projections that were accrued to the city and state billions of dollars that far outway the own centive packages. not just the 25,000 plus jobs we're creating at $150,000 plus annually but all of the ecosystem that creates, that is created when you make that kind of investment here in seattle. scores of new start-ups have launched in seattle.

because of amazon's presence here we'll see the same thing in new york and washington in arlington virginia we'll also see in new york, we're donating property we're buying to build a new primary school in the washington d.c. metro area, part of the agreement is the city is going to invest enhanced transportation in structures and infrastructures to make the impact of the 25,000 employees beneficial for the entire communities we'll see that kind of cooperation going-forward in both locations and we really are confident that these performance based incentives will absolutely pay for themselves and then some community. >> how much of a role did politics play in choosing crystal city virginia. >> we dealt with leaders in all 20 locations virginia is a great place. i grew up there myself >> it's near washington, d.c., where they might have a target

on the back of amazon right now, in terms of antitrust. >> well, look, i don't think amazon is an obscure company that people haven't heard about, if we weren't cool locationing a headquarters in virginia, we have a presence in virginia already, several thousand employees. and the reason we went to virginia is very simple. it's a great city, it's going to attract a lot of talent, they have existing talent and the right location for us, same with new york so it -- you know, those -- the principal driving case in each city is talent the average size of a fortune 10 company is 11 or 12,000. we're going to have three that are twice that size. that's a lot of talent we have to recruit we need to go to the places that either have that talent or

appeal to potential talent >> we lost our ifb to you. i don't know whether you can hear me say thank you very much. we appreciate your time today. >> thank you, if you can hear me i have another live interview i have to do if you can hear me. sue herera with cnbc headlines this hour. >> here's what's happening at this hour, everyone. defense secretary jim mattis says he plans to visit the u.s. mexican border tomorrow, where active troops are helping to erect barriers this as he greeted qatar's defense minister at the pentagon >> we'll update you on costs as they become known. obviously the unit is executing the border mission we are capturing the class

>> the militants warn they will escalate their attacks if israel continues bombing targets in the gaza strip check this out, that's four men stopped by security after they attempted to cross a vehicle only bridge in russia, wearing a costume to try to disease themselves as a bust it's all in an attempt to beat the pedestrians band it went on to the bridge as a big yellow bus, they were caught by that security guard there have been protests because cars are not allowed on that bridge. but the bridge is the quickest way to get into the city center. >> let's get to the latest on the wildfires burning in california the camp fire in northern california has become the deadliest in state history, killing 42 people so far those ands of homes throughout the state where aaditi roy is

standing by. >> reporter: we've seen air crews attacking it from all sides. the ariels really tell the story, because the fire was on the other side of the hill basically what happened is the scariest part of it, is that earlier, firefighters thought they had that blaze under control, they're basically mopping it up, mother nature intervened, other plans as the winds kicked up the embers and it flaired back up residents living down wind in places like sherwood and hidden valley they had been let back into their homes, they thought its with safe. many are now being reevacuated as a situation evolves these are some of l.a.'s most affluent suburbs filled with 2 million, $3 million mansions they thought they were in the clear, now those areas are once again under threat this is all just a couple miles away from kim kardashian and

kanye west's home. they hired private firefighters to help stave off the flames this also saved other homes on the block, if the kardashian mansion went up in flames, it could have had a domino effect it's been decimated. only parts of the frame are left up everything else is rubble. is it is so volatile one moment things will be calm another moment, things will be shifting back and forth. back to you guys >> it's been a key indicator how the ultrarich are spending their money now, it's not real estate. a $2 billion test this week on whether the market can hold up to plunging stk ocprices, trade wars and a slowing economy power lunch is back in two

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let's get to kate rogers for market flash >> its non-retail employees. the news comes as the company continues to streamline its operations to innovate and meet the challenges of the changing retail environment in a memo obtained by cnbc, ceo kevin johnson wrote in part, "building the next chapter of starbucks requires us to focus on fewer priorities and transform how our functional teams work." this follows changes at the senior level that were announced in september the company's focusing on evolving in marketing, creative product, technology and its store development. some of those changes and streamlining in its retail locations leading to better than expected earnings this past quarter. back over to you >> all right, kate, thank you very much. $2 billion worth of art is about to be auctioned off in new york city will the big market swings recently make the ultra rich a

little more cautious with how they spend their cash? robert frank joins us. robert >> tyler, it is the biggest auction week of the year and the biggest test for the art market given the recent market swings, the tariffs, the slowing global growth and the star of the week is edward hopper's famed chop suey painting that's being sold tonight at christie's. it is estimated to sell for between 70 and 100 million dollars. another big star is david hock ni's "portrait of an artist" also being sold by christie's, expected to be sold for over 80 million. it is beling sold by billionaire investor joe louis women artists are soaring in value this season. joan mitchell's 12 hawks at 3:00, that's estimated to sell for between 12 and 60 million. could set a brand new record for joan mitchell. sotheby's has canned insky that could sell for $35 million and a really big basquiat.

tiffany's is auctioning something just u7der 19 carats if they get a lot of bidding from china >> the chinese and asian customers, hong kong in particular of course, very important to the art market, very important to the diamond market and they have been some of our biggest buyers and bidders for colored diamonds >> of course even if they're bidding the question is whether they can get the money out of china right now given the control on currencies and foreign exchange >> aside from chinese buyers who are likely to step in and maybe pick up a bargain? >> the americans are still super strong, especially in the new york auctions, but again, a lot of those are people in the financial industry and in real estate and it's a confidence game the art market is not about how much money you have. lots of people are really rich it's whether they have confidence right now and this is a tough week for confidence >> how much money they will

have >> exactly >> thank you, robert >> following yesterday's sell-off, investors are watching the key support levels to see what happens next. let's get the technical tape bill straz lo chief market analyst at bell curve trading. what key levels are you watching on the nasdaq? >> first of all, melissa, i think what you're seeing right now is something i had talked about in april and may the nasdaq 100 has basically reached its target so when you see facebook become face plant down over 34% since the end of july and then you see google and apple getting taken out to the wood shed, this is fully what i expected. i don't think it's over yet. i think when you look at the nasdaq 100 and the nasdaq comp we could easily see another 5% or 10% down side here.

the most important question at all the markets right now is what is the status of the rally off the march 2009 lows in the u.s. stock market because it is really u.s.-centric at this point. and if you look at it as a three-legged stool the nasdaq comp and the nasdaq 100 have reached their target off the 2009 lows. so you've got one leg of the stool that's broken and the question is can the s&p and the dow still carry the market higher >> a lot of people today, bill, are looking at the chart of the small caps the russell. and pointing to the so-called death cross from the 50-day crosses to below the 200-day indicating a loss of short-term momentum do you see that forecasting weakness in the broader indices? what does this mean in your view if anything? >> i don't think we're done right here i think the first area you're going to have, watch the s&p around 2700. the s&p's got a hold in front of there. that would be to me the first

kind of level in the air where we are right now that will be a test to see whether the market can hold right now but again, when you look at the u.s. markets right now the key question is is this 2009 rally still intact the nasdaq comp, nasdaq 100 done s&p i still think is the most bullish of all you still have a pretty -- we still have some pretty decent upside objectives. 3300, 3400 and the dow, that's the one that will be the swing right here you start to see the dow below 25,000 then you have the situation where the nasdaq is broken, the dow is starting to roll over, and more than likely they're going to end up dragging the s&p lower. if the market is going to hang in here, you want to see the dow above 25,000, you want to see the s&p hold here in front of 2700 and then i still think we have the potential to at least retest the old highs if not go higher

it's still very much in flux, and i don't think people understand or appreciate the fact that one of the key drivers of the market, the nasdaq comp and nasdaq 100, are basically done off the 2009 lows >> so just quickly, bill, if you see some more upside potentially in the s&p 500, that would imply you see secrets outside of technology holding in. so what are the strongest sectors at this point? >> probably health care. xlb, ibv, they look good but i'm concerned about the broader market as well because i think the banks are in trouble i think the industrials have issues so the mentality has been buy the dip, buy the dip that's what you've been paid to do since the 2009 lows what i've been warning about on this show back in april and may and as recently as october is that we may be at the point now where this whole 2009 rally is beginning to roll over the key tell right now is the nasdaq comp and nasdaq 100 have reached their target, they still have more down side to go from

here >> bill, thanks so much. bill strazzullo, bell curve trading. >> coming up on the second hour of power, more on our amazon discussion will the incentives become a taxpayer boondoggle or will it be a win-win situation creating jobs and speeding commerce plus is the dollar the hidden reason for the market turmoil that no one is talking about people are talking about the market turmoil, maybe not so much about the dollar. much more on the markets coming up

i'm melissa lee. here's what's on the menu. from global growth concerns to the rising dollar to crude's collapse, is the wall of worry starting to grow and what does that mean for your snoin new york and virginia cheering their big win in the amazon hq2 derby. but when the numbers are all crunched, will this actually be a profitable move for these two major cities and a former facebook exec. tells us why he is now spending millions to fight tech addiction. "power lunch" starts right now on that note and formally, welcome to "power lunch. i'm tyler mathisen a volatile session after the big sell-o sell-off stocks are off session highs and the s&p and nasdaq are looking to snap a three-day losing

streak they are ever so slightly higher both averages trading below their 200-day moving average crude sinking today. lowest level since february for that one now down for the 12th straight session. that's the longest losing streak since. you can guess. 1983 boeing and pfizer the biggest laggards caterpillar and intell among your leaders names to watch, ge on pace for what its best day in nine years after saying it will accelerate its baker hughes sale. apple on the verge of breaking its 200-day moving average and not in a good way. after a rough week and semis moving higher today. led by nvidia. the stock getting an upgrade at susquehanna. and we have more on that ahead melissa. >> we begin with team coverage on the growing wall of worry for the markets. the latest fund manager survey rick santelli on the impact of the rising dollar on corporate profits. and jackie deangelis on crude's

collapse dom, we begin with you and the growing pessimism apparently among managers >> there are fund managers by bank of america, merrill lynch are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the investment environment. and this pretty much encapsulates their view of things this is from michael hartnett. he's the bank of america avalanche plch chief investment strategist he says that we remain bearish as investor positioning does not yet signal the big low in asset markets. that may not be a good sign. we can see more weakness ahead based on his view, michael hartnett at b of a the fund manager survey looks at a few different things but here are some of the highlights there cash balances actually fall. that's a bullish sign. that means on the pullback managers deploy month cash buying cheaper prices in the month of october that may be a good sign. nearly 1/3 of all of the respondents in the survey say that the market has actually peaked maybe not a good sign there. also around 44% of respondents actually say that they see

global growth decelerating overt course of the next year. and allocations to global technology stocks are the lowest since 2009, although they did caveat it by saying that they're not seeing a massive rotation out of growth into value components as this fund manager survey sets things up, guys, it does say yeah, maybe people bought the dip but the outlook not so bright out there, guys back over to you >> thank you very much, dom. speaking of tech, it has been a wreck in the tech sector lately and josh lipton has the distressing numbers. josh >> tyler, check out the tech sector of the s&p 500. higher right now but as you mentioned, it's been a tough stretch. hit a record close on october 3rd, then tumbled into correction territory down about 10% from that high. nasdaq on track to snap a three-day losing streak right now, but that index also down about 10% since october 3rd. and then there is am down more than 10% since it reported results on november 1st.

goldman sachs out with a new note today cutting its fiscal '19 total iphone units by 6% our own jim cramer says the bottom for apple is not in until the street is done trimming estimates. so why has the tech sector been under pressure btig's julian emmanuel rattles off a few reasons here, ramping regulatory scrutiny in washington in the near term emmanuel says it's not clear growth will outperform value as much as it has. that's not about for tech stocks in a rising rate environment higher multiple stocks face a higher hurdle. but cfra's lindsay barrel remains overweight tech, expects volatility in the near term but cloud and software trends remain strong she says. doesn't see recession near term. and for 2019 she expects tech eps growth of 10.5% and sales growth of 8.8% both better than the broader market she says. melissa. >> josh, thank you josh lipton in san francisco from tech to the u.s. dollar

jim cramer also tweeting yesterday this time that the dollar could not be worse for internationals many have to be sold on this and chinese slowdown let's head to rick santelli at the cme for a look at the dollar's rise. rick >> yeah, the dollar has been strong look at a two-day chart of the dollar index it already has recouped much of its losses that it came with today. and if you look at a two-week chart what you'll see is the dollar index just keeps moving a bit higher and from the lows of the year in february it has been almost a 10% rally. and i know jim cramer tweeted that this is horrible for corporations, multinationals he's right but we are in a con ungs economy and it's certainly good for those within the borders if you're investing maybe invest in those things now on the menu in a bigger way for the consumers within the borders of the united states. finally, 30-year bonds charts starting on october 1st

it has been the firmest player today in what is a lower rate session. you look at a 10-year, it's down 4. 30s are only down 1. it knz to remain the stellar performer on a day where ranges are very tight in treasuries tyler, back to you >> rick santelli, thank you very much so how concerned should investors be about the factors that we've just talked about and how you position your portfolio? let's bring in jason are, chie investment officer and chief economist with albion financial group. and chris zacarelli, chief investment officer with the independent investor alliance. chris, i want to turn to you first if i might, and git that tease out a thought that i see in my notes. you say that as a strategic investor it makes sense to invest in health care and technology and avoid utilities and consumer staples but as a tactical investor it makes sense to buy utilities and consumer staples and avoid the others explain to me the apparent disconnect, though i know there really isn't one

>> sure. what i'm trying to point out is you're seeing a lot of investors move into those more defensive sectors like consumer staples, like utilities trying to get out of the way of the big sell-off in those cyclical sectors like technology, like consumer discretionary. i think making a move into consumer staples and utilities would make sense if we're going to have a recession in the near term but i don't believe we are and that's why i'm saying exactly the opposite although in the short run consumer staples and utilities look like a safe place to hide i think over the next one to three years you're going to wish that you hadn't been there because i think rates will go higher i think the economy continues to do well. a lot of signs are pointing toward expansion, whether you're looking at 3 1/2% gdp growth last quarter, gdp now for this quarter is around 2.9% growth. corporate profit growth 24.9% in this quarter year over year. and revenue growth is 19%. yes, earn rgz slowing down a little bit in terms of the earnings growth. the earnings are continuing. the economy's still strong for that reason we have a ways to go before the next recession.

>> jason, how confident are you in apple i know you've been a long-term holder and longer-term you are confident but in terms of what this may signal it's not just hunhai, lumentum and the list goes on in terms of apple suppliers but this is also what it could mean in terms of spending on these devices. >> right so i mean, we've seen this movie before, right? where suppliers guide down or they -- we have, absolutely. >> but they also say we're not going to post handset units anymore. at a time when everybody's doubting the number of handsets they're going to be selling. i mean, that seems like it's a little different this time >> it always seems different this time. but the reality is it isn't in our view and here's why i think it's unfortunate that these suppliers are guiding down they're not citing apple there's been some inference that it's apple but we don't know that for sure. that has happened along with apple saying like you mentioned

we're p going to disclose units anymore. we view that as a pivot and a polling of investors away from what we've been saying for a long time, which is if you're looking at unit growth in am you're missing the bigger picture on the long-term fundamentals of that company, which is this is a software, emerging software and services company over the next five years, ten years and it deserves a different multiple than a hardware company tim cook is saying that's exactly how this should be 1r50ud and we continue to think that's correct >> have you bought on the dip here >> we've had a full position in apple for a while. i think those that don't have money in apple you could absolutely buy this dip. it's very attractive on a long-term basis but here at albion in our flagship portfolio we've had a full position and we're not looking to take it above that >> chris, you say the two big negative factors facing the market are the trade war with china and rising interest rates, the fed. and you see the odds of trade war relief at a low 30% anytime soon and the odds of the fed indicating a pause in the

interest rate hikes at 10% in the near term. so how do stocks keep moving up if those two big negatives are still in place for weeks and maybe months to come >> i think when you look at the fed they've definitely communicated they're going to continue to raise interest rates. they might take a pause in the middle of next year. so in the short run i if i if you're looking for the fed to give you relief by indicating they're going to pause i don't think that's going to happen odds are less than 10% your big hopes in terms of those two fears are some type of thawing or some type of relief in terms of the concerns around the trade war with china the idea we're going to have a trade deal with china by the end of thor is not likely. and people are hoping there's going to be a big breakthrough coming on the heels of president xi and president trump meeting in buenos aires at the end of this month and it's possible there's going to be some positive language in that direction, but again, i think there's a lot of hope placed in that fact. so really i think if you're looking for those two fears it's

going to be some type of thaw, some type of announcement that the trade war with china is moving towards a resolution rather than the actual resolution itself. that's your big hope if you want stocks to move up in the short run. >> it's like the advisories that companies give it's not what they do but what they say in the forward guidance thank you, jason, of albion financial and chris zaccarrelli of the independence adviser alliance >> now dom chu with e cigarette maker juul >> juul, who is the pre-emptively largest e cigarette company in america has released a statement formally now outlining a plan that they're going to put in place to combat underage use of vaping products in a blog post on the company's website they are now saying that they are going to as of this morning stop accepting retail orders for certain flavored products including mango, fruit, creme and cucumber juul pods to over 90,000 retail stores that

sell our product including traditional tobacco retailers like convenience stores and specialty vape shops they also say that in the future their plan, again, is to take a look at some of these things they will only start accepting orders for those flavored products from retail stores that can legally sell flavors and comply with the criteria of some of their new 21 and older distribution systems they have also outlined plans to take down presences on social media that could promote their products also listing out some of the age verification processes, guys, they're going to put in place on their website. right now as of today that is the only place that you can go to buy those flavored products and it goes through an extensive age verification process that tyler right now includes also giving the last four digits of your social security number as well >> so they are also -- included in this retail pullback are vape shops and tobacco stores, not just convenience stores and other retailers. >> no. and that's interesting about this too >> it's a step beyond.

>> it is a step beyond but it comes ahead of a formal announcement that's widely expected from dr. scott gottlieb, the fda commissioner right now, and the full fda staff with regard to its procedures and policies, guidelines going forward on formally how the federal government will treat vaping products, flavored vaping products and of course menthol cigarettes as well by the way, go to cnbc.com, that story, the full story up on there. >> fascinating dom, thank you very much coming up new york and virginia chosen for amazon's hq2 headquarters next a look at why they fought so hard to get it and what they're getting out of it. plus, boeing reportedly failed to warn about a potentially dangerous feature in its new flight control system. and that could have played a role in a deadly crash a couple of weeks back. the impact on the company and the stock. and one of our next guests is spending millions to try to fight tech addiction he knows a thing or two about tech he's a former executive at facebook and pinterest and he'll join us ahead. "power lunch" back in two.

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splitting their hq2 project between new york city and arlington, virginia and opening a new operation center in nashville, tennessee now, critics have slammed the $2 billion worth of incentives amazon is set to receive from new york and virginia as corporate welfare. and a bad deal for taxpayers but our next guest says the sustained job growth a project of amazon's size is likely worth it john krueger is the former executive vice president of the greater sacramento council he now runs a community real estate consulting practice called national real estate markets. john, great to have you with us. >> yeah, thank you very much for having me. a pleasure >> you know, when you're putting a pitch together for sacramento and you're delivering it to the city counseling, to the mayor, to all the parties involved, how did you make that pitch convincing we should provide subsidies to one of the world's richest men for one of the world's biggest companies to put their hq2 in our city >> absolutely. you're right to have the

conversation and both sides bring it up. and i think it's beneficial to have the conversation. what i try to focus on is twofold. one, i don't think you can have community incentives that outpay the community benefit that the company is going to bring back to your city number one number two, how does one really value economic diversity in a community where you have one or two or aging industries? i think that's invaluable and that's the conversation that we had. >> so in your pitch i presume there were some, i don't know, excel spreadsheets, the tax revenue generated, et cetera what was that gap, between how much you had to spend and that sort of intangible how much were you willing to spend in order to get that intangible >> i think we clearly showed an economic benefit to the community well in excess of what we willing to good give to the company. and then you had intangible

benefits we were going to put together, how does one value creating a university or an education a.m. pipeline for a company like amazon? amazon can't buy that. you can't create that yourselves even though you might attempt to do amazon university where we and other communities decided we will create that pipeline of education for workforce for you in perpetuity so you will always have a workforce you need in order to be successful. they can't value that either in dollars. it was a mutual how do we value this and -- >> and how did you value it? was your offer anywhere close to what new york or arlington offered? >> no. not at all and i think that in the hundreds of millions of dollars if you look at public infrastructure impacts, if you look to grants, you look at workforce training, universities, you know, we came in the hundreds of millions as we tried to value some of those intangibles on top of dollars. >> so one of the things that jay carney, amazon spokesman, said

to us a few moments ago was that for every job that amazon creates in these local markets, 25,000 in long island city, 25,000 in crystal city, there will be more jobs and more businesses started as a result of that presence what does your modeling show actually happens when a big new employer comes in at that scale? what is the sort of velocity of money and job creation through the system like? >> you can see multipliers and that's what we call is, is multiplier multipliers, anywhere from one to sometimes as high as two to maybe even three times, three jobs for every job that company creates. the company brings wealth. that employee brings wealth. they spend in a community. it creates additional retail jobs suppliers, vendors, clients, partners, all of which come to be a part of this larger part of

an amazon hq2, even split, a 25,000 that will create more than the 25,000 just created by the company. >> these are supposedly high-paying jobs, averaging $140,000, $150,000 a year. we should point out, though, that both the d.c. area and new york area are very high cost of living areas and so those folks, even though it looks on the number, looks like a very high-paying job in those markets real estate is high john krueger, thank you. >> absolutely. my pleasure. >> john is with national real estate markets and coming up, boeing reportedly failed to warn an airline, or the airline industry, excuse me, about a potentially dangerous feature suspected of having played a role in a deadly crash. shares of boeing down more than 2% right now a look at the impact on the company and the stock is next.

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welcome back to "power lunch. i'm mike sanity oeli, and this is "trading nation." dow and s&p at trading lows. dow down 165 s&p down about a quarter of a percent right now. check out shares of boeing actually a big part of that dow decline falling nearly 3% today. good for 65 dow points

so on worries surrounding the safety of a 737 model. and it's one of the biggest laggards on the dow this week, second only to goldman sachs is the stock heading right back toyotas october lows at this point? aaron gibbs with investment advisory services, matt with aaron tayback. how do we work in this news that hit today about potentially boeing not disclosing some safety issues with the 737 into a fundamental story for boeing >> we're still looking at this as being more an overreaction. they obviously have issued some statements about how for pilots to handle erroneous air speed indicators but particularly when it looks like from the crash it really doesn't look like this is going to fall with a big financial impact on boeing or lead to any faa groundings yet particularly when there were three erroneous indicator reports on three flights prior to the crash so it really looks like it was

negligence on the airline's part rather than a problem with boeing so we see these types of headlines as an opportunity for investors to get in. we haven't seen any revisions on earnings or revenue. we're still looking at about 6 1/2% revenue growth for the next two years, looking very solid. we haven't seen really any changes in wall street consensus on boeing either for us it just looks like valuations dropping in it's an overreaction and this might actually be a good buying point. >> matt, obviously today's news of some significance to today's trading but the stock itself came into the year with tremendous momentum. it has been kind of stuck for a little while how do you view it >> yeah, it's interesting to say it's been one of the worst performers of this week but it's been one of the best performers of the year. up 18% year to date. the problem is that 100% of that advance took place in the first two weeks of the year. the stock sun changed from january 16th

it's been stuck in this sideways range for 11 months. the 200-day moving average has been key support for the stock all year it dip below for one day in october. it's dipping below again today you have to see if we can regain that line rather quickly if it can't it will probably see a quick retest of those october lows my concern is it's been stuck in a sideways range if you're looking for stocks to buy on weakness there may be some better candidates both in the defense group and the broad market overall >> the broad group looks like there might be better opportunities. for boeing sideways until proven otherwise? is that the bottom line? >> exactly until it breaks out of that range it's tough to measure it >> matt, erin, appreciate your time for more trading nation head to our website. melissa, back to you >> he helped run facebook and now he wants to help you run the

other way. well, sort of. former facebook exec. tim kendall's new mission to help curb tech addiction. he'll join us live next. as we head to break take a look at the mrkts right now nasdaq and s&p 500 close to session lows the dow is starting to lose steam as well. the markets will be closely watching going into the final hour of trade. stay tuned >> announcer: and now the latest from tradingnation.cnbc.com and a word from our sponsor. >> in rising low volatility markets short-term pullbacks can often represent great buying opportunities. but picking exact tops and bottoms is a tricky game one approach is to consider waiting for the second consecutive up day after a pullback before putting money back into the market xfinity mobile is a new wireless network

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use less data with a network that automatically connects you to the most wifi hotspots in millions of places and the best 4g lte everywhere else. saving you hundreds of dollars a year. and ask how you get xfinity mobile included with your internet. plus, get $200 back when you when you buy a new smartphone. xfinity mobile. it's simple. easy. awesome. click, call or visit a store today. let's get a check on the markets right now. it does seem like we're drifting a little lower here. s&p and nasdaq hitting session lows at this moment. the dow jones industrial average is down by about half a percent, or 123 points. s&p dun own by 4 and the nasdaq up by 7 weighing on the dow right now boeing, exxon and chevron. and we've got another down day for apple. that stock now down more than 5% in just the past week. we do, though, have a positive day for the banks. u.s. bank corp., american express and morgan stanley are leading and oil the big story.

following more than 7%, hitting a one-year low we'll have much more on this decline straight ahead in the meantime let's get to bill griffeth for a cnbc news update >> here's what's happening at this hour. cabinet ministers have been arriving at 10 downing street for what the british media describe as a meeting with prime minister theresa may on a proposed brexit deal downing street says the full cabinet will meet tomorrow to consider the agreement jordan's king abdullah has been meeting with secretary of state mike pompeo in washington. the two discussing the current regional developments in the mideast including the escalating violence in the gaza strip and karen pence, the wife to the vice president, has been championing art therapy while visiting in japan. she announced a $54,000 grant to a japanese university for its study, which uses craft work to help people suffering from ptsd, autism, or other mental illnesses. >> when we go all over the world and observe art therapy, it's

used frequently with people who are having some kind of depression or stress or trauma, anxiety, anger issues. >> and that is the cnbc news update at this hour. back to you guys >> all right thank you, bill. now to a developing story. california's wildfires rage on the fires now the deadliest in the state's history. aditi roy is live in oak park, los angeles with the latest. aditi? >> hi there, tyler this is part of the woolsey fire take a look at this home only the frame of it pretty much is left standing everything else has been reduced to rubble. and you can see the path of the flames because the hillside right next to it is completely charred. what we can tell you right now, the fire is about 35% contained. also, president trump has approved an expedited request for a major disaster declaration in california. between the two fires burning on both ends of the state, more

than 220,000 acres have burned more than 7200 structures destroyed and 72,000 homes threatened meantime, energy stocks like pg&e and edison international took a real beating yesterday upon some investor worries that those companies would be held liable for these fires that still has yet to be determined but in the meantime today those stocks have rebounded. back to you. >> aditi, thanks aditi roy. crude oil falling below 56 bucks a barrel today and falling for the 12th straight session. jackie deangelis joins with us more on the slide. what was the cause behind the intraday slide we saw so sharply just about an hour ago >> it was. a lot of this is technical selling too. when you hit certain levels as you know then the selling just keeps piling on. we had the worst week -- streak actually we've seen since the crude contract was created in 1983 since its inception. sought u.s. is certainly part of this problem with production, climbing closer to 12 million barrels a day. but also opec pumping nearly 33 million barrels.

that's scary because didn't opec just cut it doesn't feel like they did. now tar talking about another cut. it seems to be a lot of rhetoric here it feels like we're back where we were in $2016 when prices 2kr07d to almost $25 a barrel. too much supply on our hands this time you have a president that is, a, watching oil prices closely. b, said he doesn't want them moving up any higher and c-s willing to play chicken with opec and also with russia now, when we were falling close to 60 most of my sources were saying they thought that level was a support system they're pretty surprised to see this extra dip the session low today was under $56 a barrel and that's where the close was as well. and that is a one-year low >> at what point or price do american drillers cut back on their production >> so that's always a great question and every day as the technology gets better i think that price is starting to -- >> to drop >> right it's starting to drop. they've been able to manage it a little better. somewhere probably between the 30 and 40 range is where a lot

of people are right now. it varies from company to company. lower than 30 at 25. and they are going to feel the plesh. >> where might opec start to cut? there's talk of it >> it's such a different ball game when it comes to the opec producers. they are talking about potentially cutting but is it really a cut when they ramped up to make up for that iranian barrel shortfall that really never hit the market effectively it sounds like to me they'd be bringing this back to even >> it feels like a lot traders were caught offsides there was anticipation that the supplies would be tighter because of sanctions and et cetera and et cetera it's the opposite. >> it seemed real. analysts were all talking about this as we progressed throughout the year they were saying the rebalance is real. it's happening demand seems to be getting better supply seems to be coming down all of a sudden we got thrown out of whack i was talking to steve liesman behind the scenes today and he said to me it sounds like there's something else going on here it sounds like we sort of jawboned the price up again but

we're coming really back down to reality of where we should be. and i said i think you're right. >> jackie d., thanks good to be with you. good to have you here. you might want to put down that phone and listen to our next guest. according to the e-marketer, americans will spend -- my phone. excuse me. >> speaking of which >> would you mind, folks if i just take this. they spend an average of 3 1/2 hours a day on mobile devices. not me and over 90% of that time will be spent on apps like facebook or instagram now -- did you hear that there it went again. new apps and services are springing up to help curb our tech addictions. i've got to -- tim kendall is ceo of moment, an app that seeks to help users limit the time on their devices. he's a former executive at facebook and pinterest so he knows the seduction or maybe the addicting power of those devices. tim kendall, welcome good to have you with us >> thank you good to be here. >> forgive me if my phone goes off or i just feel compelled -- >> that's all right. you and everybody else >> me and everyone else.

what does your app do and how does it help me? >> yeah. so in a phrase, our app helps give you back your time. so what we do is we track how much you use your phone, which has two dimensions to it how much time you spend on it. also importantly how many times you pick it up in a day. we help you assess that usage and then we actually coach you to use it less so we help you really kind of redefine your relationship with your phone -- >> does it give me instant feedback that i picked up my phone 37 times since 9:00 a.m. and i have spent -- >> it does >> -- x amount of hours on, it right? there's an initial assessment period where we see how bad it actually is, and then on the basis of that we coach you to set some limits and guidelines about how -- what is in your mind healthy usage what in your mind is going to give you back some of your time so you can spend your life on the stuff that matters rather than the stuff that's simply

urgent or seductive. >> isn't there good uses of the phone and bad uses of the phone? >> absolutely. >> does your app tell you how much time tyler's spending on candy crush versus texting with his son versus e-mailing his boss at work >> it does in fact, it gives you a sense of -- there are really sort of two different compulsions around phone addiction we see one is you spend too much time consuming. we see that happen on netflix, social media services. and then there are lots of folks who aren't on these services but still have a compulsion because they pick up their phones too much so we see both of those behaviors. and then on the basis of that initial behavior we coach you to use your phone less. and what we see is that it gives people their time back and what our users tell us, and we now have 7 million people who have used moment, is that their relationships are better, their time and their focus and

attention is improved, and they're just happier >> so does apple have a function on some of its phones that effectively do the same thing? and how is yours different if they do? >> yeah. so what apple has done, if i were to use the diet analogy, apple has given users a scale but they haven't given them an exercise plej regimen or any kif nutritional guidelines so in my mind their solution is incomplete and somewhat inept. and what we see on the heels of apple launching that solution is actually an uptick in the usage of moment. >> tim cook, my phone now is inept. he didn't like that. he called me i'll put him through to you later. >> that would be great >> tim, you're former facebook, former pinterest so you can say whatever you want about them at this point how much does the blame fall squarely in the laps of facebook, of a pinterest, of the social media platforms that

created the ecosystem where people fritter away so much of their time >> yeah. i mean, look, i think it's shared blame i think that the folks that make the phones are somewhat to blame and the mechanisms, the generalized mechanisms on the phone. moatifications, the brightness of the screen, the size of the screen that's certainly partly to blame. and then all these services. news services, video services, social networking services any service generally speaking that takes your time from you and sort of steals your time from you and it's at your expense. >> did you know when you were working at facebook and at pinterest or did people there know they were getting addicted to these products? was that an objective? >> it wasn't an objective. it wasn't an objective >> but did you know it was happening? were there internal

conversations where you'd go -- >> i haven't been at facebook for eight years. eight years ago there were not conversations about people getting addicted there were conversations about serious issues and i do think the folks there then and now take the issues that their platform creates seriously. and i believe they're working dill jentdly to solve them and then at pinterest, the whole idea of pinterest was to help people discover stuff and get off their phones and go do it. and that was part of the impetus for going off and pursuing this on my own, was that i saw sort of the goodness that pinterest was creating in the world. and quite frankly i was personally suffering from device addiction. i was coming home from work and i had two little kids and i was finding myself in the pantry scrolling through, you know, news articles -- >> we have to wrap, it tim, but i was watching the nfl game last night and my 12-year-old was sitting right across from me on the couch, and we were both double-screening he was looking at something. >> yeah. very common. >> and i was reading a "new

yorker" article. >> i do that too >> guilty as charged tim, thank you we'll have you back. tim kendall, ceo of moment >> you're very welcome thank you. coming up, the dollar has been on a steady rise this year, up more than 5%. will that climb continue should you buy the greenback here that's next. hi, my name is sam davis and i'm going to tell you about exciting plans available to anyone with medicare. many plans provide broad coverage and still may save you money on monthly premiums and prescription drugs. these are affordable, all-in-one plans that help pay for doctor visits, hospital stays and emergency care. but they also include prescription drug coverage. in fact, last year humana medicare advantage prescription drug plan members

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the dollar up 5% year to date, outpacing the euro, the canadian dollar and other major currencies many investors have started to worry that the dollar's rise could hurt multinationals. will the greenback's rally continue and how can you play it joining us now is kathy lee, managing director of fx strategy at bk asset management and a cnbc contributor kathy, great to see you. >> thank you >> part of the equation on where the dollar goes is what the fed does with interest rates so if december is a foregone conclusion, does that necessarily mean the dollar is destined to rise through the end of the year? >> well, i think the dollar is probably destined to rise into year end but if we look to 2019 i think the federal reserve is really going to use the december meeting as an opportunity to tone down some of their

guidance this week we got a couple pieces of economic data that could reinforce the slower momentum we are beginning to see in the u.s. economy. that's really the case they're going to have to acknowledge that and start to talk about maybe some sort of balance between rate hikes and keeping policy unchanged i do think the dollar will continue to strengthen into december but i'd be careful of being overly long dollar ahead of the meeting >> you're in the camp sort of that the fed could possibly scale back market expectations for further rate hikes, that they might actually adjust their path or talk it down from the path previously given. >> absolutely. equity markets have been pretty volatile lately. the strong dollar really takes a bite out of earnings and i think if they allow the dollar to continue to strengthen we're talking into a weaker posture in 2019 so while they need to normalize policy we do have factors that are on their side. oil prices have fallen

significantly. down 6% today. that's going to cause inflation to go at a slightly slower pace or at least not accelerate as quickly. when you have the strong dollar negatively affecting earnings and you also have this volatility that you're seeing in the oil market all of that really gives the federal reserve a reason to slow down. >> as you look at what the drivers are behind the rise of the dollar you've isolated rising interest rates on the one hand what are the other factors that are pushing it higher? is it because the u.s. economy is perceived to be so much relatively stronger than others? >> yes basically, there's four main factors. one we just talked about, which is the four fed rate hikes secondly, the data has been decent we're talking about the potential for weaker data but we haven't seen widespread weakness we also have equity market volatility the sell-off that we've seen over the past couple weeks has definitely caused investors to buy the greenback. and of course the protectionist trade policies now, three out of those four being interest rates, market

volatility, trade policies are not expected to change anytime soon so you're really left with just data and data is important because it can really shape expectations not just for this upcoming decision in december but beyond that two major releases, retail sales and cpi, are on the calendar this week. >> what's the up i'd level on the dollar index that you're watching, kathy? >> so dollar index is trading up at 17-month highs. i think there's potential for another 5% rise potentially in the dollar index before things really peter out i do see quite a bit of rally. at the end of the day fed policy is not expected to peak until the middle of next year. and if we do have equity market volatility it's not going to be good for anyone and it's going to cause a lot of central banks to maintain their steady policy. so i'm not a complete dollar bear i think gains could slow down in 2019 >> kathy, good to see you. kathy lien bk asset management. >> and coming up, our next guest

says market uncertainty will soon be a thing of the past. market uncertainty he explains why. and where he sees the market innext presenting the internet! whoa! what's he doing? come on, let's check it out! nice. he's pretty good at this. hm! it's like a game! (gasps) woo-hoo! got it!

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>> all right we talk a lot about a wall of worry. he says uncertainty will soon be a thing of the past. welcome. uncertainty will go away >> well, the midterms are now behind us. i think trade will be resolved sooner than most think the fed will be slowing down kind of three things that are most worrying i think by this time next year i'm sure there will be a whole new set of worries. >> you think that the fed will what back off? >> i think there's a real chance that by the mid-ofl next year the fed is on pause. if we continue to see the market volatility, continue to see the

weakness around the world, the dollar strength mentioned in the last segment it will be forced to confront reality and recognize they start to go have an impact on the economy and markets. >> you also say a year from now they will not even remember how to spell the word tariff >> exactly >> it is very confusing some times. does it mean that the trade war will be resolved is it within that year it seems like it is driving that on a basis >> yes i think china, it is really doing damage to the economy. i think the u.s. markets are certainly sending our president a message they would like this to be resolved with the midterms now having occurred democrats have taken the house i think president trump is

looking far win. agree on a developed market level tariff it is so they should have a tariff that is appropriate to that status in the world if they could find a way to deal with joint ventures that chinese companies do with the u.s. which is the mechanism which is they take intellectual properties, i think if they can resolve the two issues we will have a deal you must think the biggest market rally is coming right at us >> i think it's a real ennar owe. you know, it's always hard to make short term predictions. i think investors, you use the phrase wall of worry they are looking for reasons to

be pessimistic they are quite cautious. they are telling us we haven't hit bottom yet cash levels are high if we get it especially if it comes sooner than expected i think investors will start to reason out of reasons to be selling. >> all right thank you ryucve mh interesting call >> and check please is next. you ok there, kurt? we're about to move. karate helps...

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it was to amazon from a couple of jurisdictions. let's listen to executive director here about whether one of the richest companies in the world and one of the richest executives in the world ought to be getting big tax breaks. >> no. they don't that's the gut level reaction from groups we are working on in virginia and new york. this is a company worth almost a trillion dollars, a person worth 150 or 160 billion himself >> it is an interesting argument to make. as we try today probe would amazon have gone there but for the incentives everybody was going to give him some kind of incentive >> sure. and did it go into the process of knowing where they are going to end up anyway >> it is crystal city up there

>> partly because of politics. it is near washington. >> what a great place to create a bunch of jobs. >> and in new york city obviously they wanted the talent is what seemed to be driving that my first job was a janitor across the street from where they are >> never do it again >> closing bell starts right now. it is time for the closing bell >> we are again talking with china. i think it's very very positive. >> full comments coming up >> and i'm in for kelly evans. now down for a record 12 sessions in a row. we will talk about