markets now, red arrows as earnings weigh on investorinves. crude crushed, but we're seeing some signs of life. a major moment for brexit negotiations we'll take you live to london for those details. it's wednesday, november 14, 2018, you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. ♪

good morning welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm dominic chu. brian sullivan is off today. it's stable for the time being right now if futures stay the way they are, you will see the dow open down by just about 10 points the s&p off by 4 the nasdaq off by 35 on the treasury side of things, more of that stability theme with ten-year u.s. treasury notes showing little movement at this point 3.14%. two-year treasury note yields ticking higher at just shy of 2.9% now that oil trade at one point early this morning we were plunging down for the 13th straight day. as you can see, we're seeing green arrows across the board. wti, 56.32 a 1% gain. ice brent crude about $66.59 a 1.75% gain let's go worldwide in asia, japan, the

out-performer despite that nation's economy contracting last quarter the nikkei up about 0.2% germany reporting a slowdown last quarter gdp slipping 0.2%. elsewhere in europe you're seeing movement to the down side in those markets we're keeping a close eye on the currency market. today could mark a major moment for brexit negotiations. so we're watching those currencies the euro, the yen, the pound is in focus up against the u.s. dollar 1.2964 dollar gaining some strength there. let's get to willem marx in london he's live there with the details on the lat eest with brexit. >> essentially what we're waiting to hear this afternoon is whether theresa may's cabinet will approve the plan her

negotiators have come up when it comes to britain's withdrawal from the european union, which is scheduled for march of next year there's been a lot of criticism since number 10 downing street said they had come up with this deal the labor party saying they're not happy with what they perceive to be the terms of this agreement. the dup, the democratic unionist party, they're propping up theresa may's government at the moment they said they're not in any way comfortable with the terms of this agreement as it regards northern ireland and its relationship with the rest of the united kingdom that could cause trouble for theresa may, even if her cabinet does opt for this deal once it gets to a vote in the house of parliament behind me, perhaps by the end of this year, if it gets voted down, who knows what could happen next we could see a general election, a hard brexit or a second referendum on eu membership.

>> willem, i'm curious, we're watching markets gyrate a bit on this idea of optimism and sentiment. is there a as soon as here that this is really a step closer to bringing this to a conclusion at some point is there still really uncertainty because markets are playing like it's anything but a done deal. what se >> what seems to be the case is the european side are happy with how things stand that's a step closer because they had concerns about how northern ireland's relationship with the republic of island would play out they feel they have the guarantees from the british side of negotiators that that will be no longer a problem. there will not be a hard border. then it is a big challenge will the cabinet in the uk, will the parliament in the uk opt for this deal when there's so many

reasons for so many different parties that they would vote it down >> willem marx, we'll see if we get meaningful progress. let's bring in the chief global market strategist and head of cross asset strategy from canter fitzgerald pete, there are so many factors at play right now. we talked about brexit oil will snap a historic losing street what from that cross asset perspective what you the most focused right now? >> our focus has been a change in the global monetary policy regime policy conditions have been tightening since the beginning of the year. rates volatility has been rising we could even see it, for example, not only coming from monetary policy but also from fiscal policy early in the year. we had some large bill issuances that took place early in the year that is also contributing to tighter financial conditions

in the u.s balance sheet shrinking. rates rising that has an impact on a company's ability to earn profit profits. >> so yes in the u.s., but we're not seeing that in places like europe, nor are we seeing it from japan from the central bank side of things you can argue we're seeing it out of london. >> yes >> on balance does that mean the fed is the primary driver of any risk assets in the market? that's a wonderful question. the ecb is also very important while the ecb has not done anything to the rate paradigm, it started to taper. the question becomes will they end qe in december as we think the eurozone continues to slow with problems around italy and growth more generally, we don't think the ecb will have the ability to end qe, but it's not as aggressive

in its qushg e program now as it was for example a year ago on margin the ecb is also less accommodative. i agree with you still somewhat accommodative. >> we've been talking about the stock markets around the world trailing the u.s the u.s. has been the best place out there to put your money from the stock side of things does it remain that way even with the current conditions that we're seeing a lot of traders out there tell me it feels heavy. >> it does feel heavy. the u.s., i do think, is still the best game in town now. early in the year within the u.s. even we had a bit of a dispersion market. we saw a lot of rotation that helped to mute volatility as investors rotated from one sector to another. we also saw the same thing globally we saw an exit from emerging markets into the united states we saw an exit from european equities into the united states. that supported large caps. if you recall it supported small caps for a good part of the year on the narrative that they were

isolated from trade and tariff concerns, which was not a narrative that i was a big fan of on a relative basis, growth in the u.s. is much better than the rest of the world. policy is also tightening much more quickly in the u.s. than the rest of the world. >> on balance, a lot of things have gone on sale over the course of the last couple of months what are you telling clients represents the best value given those things that are on sale? >> that's a great question i think energy is one of those areas. now, we got the oil call wrong to be frank. my view now, it had changed, my view now, is that it's going to be much tougher for e & p producers to make up supply deficits that the rest of the world will create. iranian sanctions, et cetera so my view was for oil to be higher certainly not at $55 that means the large cap oil producers are probably undervalued here

however i would caveat that. if you look at the high yield bond index, about 15% of that index is actually in producers many of them, the smaller ones, are not profitable so there will be a bifurcation you have to be careful when you say i like energy. who do you like within the energy sector? well-capitalized companies that will benefit from higher oil we think oil will go higher from here >> fair to say oil price volatility will shake out some of those smaller players >> yes >> thank you very much new details this morning on safety concerns surrounding boeing's latest 737 aircraft let's get that take with kate rodgers. >> good morning. the faa is denying a report it launched a new probe into the safety procedures boeing performed on its 737 max jet following the crash of a loi io

air flight the agency was said to have opened a high priority review of boeing safety analysis including what it told airlines about hazards with the new flight control system on the 737 max. indonesian officials say that system was not described in the flight man well on the lion air jet. the faa says it is not doing a probe separate from the ongoing investigation into the lion air crash with the ntsb and indonesian officials in a statement it says as we have previously said we issued an airworthiness directive and will take appropriate action based on what we learn from the investigation. this has not changed the faa says it and boeing are still evaluating the need for potential software or design changes to the aircraft as well as updated operating procedures and training a preliminary report is expected to be filed on the lion air crash by the end of the month.

back over to you. >> kate rodgers, thank you for that update on boeing. snap says the justice department and the s.e.c. are looking into allegations that it misled investors ahead of its ipo last year. the company says it believes the investigation is likely focused on statements it made related to competition. a class action lawsuit claims snap did not reveal how much instagram was hurting its growth prior to the ipo unttilray reporting a surge revenue but also a loss. the average selling price fell in the quarter as did gross profit margins tilray shares are down this morning but the stock is still up more than 500% since the ipo in june. blue apron is cutting its headcount by 4% this comes as the meal kit delivery service focuses on its online business the company reported a narrower quarterly loss, but revenues

fell for a sixth straight period as it saw a drop in orders and new subscribers. we are just getting started on the show. up next, the crude collapse. oil prices right now getting a little bit of a bid. could they be sliding again? what it means for the markets and your money later, big global risks. the top four factors you need to keep on uryo radar "worldwide exchange" will be back after this break. - learning from him is great... when i can keep up! - anncr: thankfully, prevagen helps your brain and improves memory. - dad's got all the answers. - anncr: prevagen is now the number-one-selling brain health supplement in drug stores nationwide. - she outsmarts me every single time. - checkmate! you wanna play again? - anncr: prevagen. healthier brain. better life.

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if you are just waking up, let's get you up to speed on the markets. futures indicating a flat open the dow jones opening up by 3 points the s&p down by 2. the nasdaq down by 26. on the asian trade, we did see a little bit of movement there in the shanghai composite, off by 1% the hang seng in hong kong down by a half percent. the nikkei is up by 0.2% on the european side of things, generally a little bit on the negative side. seeing the dax in germany off by 0.2% half a percent losses for the ftse 100 the cac in france down by 0.75%. we are keeping a close eye on crude oil. those prices are rebounding in just the last couple of hours on headlines out of opec. let's get out to steve sedgwick live in abu dhabi at one of the world's biggest energy conferences. what did they say that got crude

to maybe break a 12-day losing streak >> dominic, sometimes you and i are watching stories from the outside. sometimes we are fully immersed in the story i feel privileged that i'm at the center of this story i was at the key opec meeting with the russians on sunday. i felt that they had to come out this morning and they had to make some verbal intervention. they're incredibly worried about what's going on. we spoke to the secretary-general of opec. we spoke to the president of opec, they needed to get out the message that they will take corrective action for this precipitous decline in oil they want to do it at this december 6th meeting on the back of that verbal intervention, the market rallied. is it temporary or not that remains to be seen. i first spoke to mohammed bar wi barkindo, i said what about the

russians/saudi relationship. let listen to his answer >> the saudi/russian relationship is as strong as the rock of gibraltar. we will do collectively all it takes to protect and guarantee the stability that have taken us nearly four years. >> that is what verbal interveb sh intervention looks like. middle of 2016 prices were plummeting they had this declaration of cooperation at the end of 2016 at meeting i was at at veienna, it got prices to stabilize, but has it been good for the world or the global economy? the president of opec, also the

host of the event here in abu dhabi, listen in, he's talking about naivety of the market to think things will be better without opec >> it's naive to think that you can just get rid of opec and things will be better. things will be way worse if opec is not there the second question, do we force -- does opec force countries to take decisions when it comes to production absolutely not the decision of producing is a decision by the state itself >> that was some sound recorded earlier. that wasn't my conversation. we'll try to get that to you he came out and he said they will do what it takes to get this sorted out. they were also talking about other factors. there are three factors that make the market, sentiment, supply and demand, and geopolitics. these make the market.

sentiment is the machines driving down this market you have the dollar rallying the machines have been a large part of this decline and they're very concerned about that negative sentiment the ge yo pol geopolitics, i as mr. trump and his waivers, if that led to this problem, and i was told, yes. and they are terrified about demand for 2019. they will need some swift action if they want to stall out this price. domin dominic, back to you >> steve sedgwick, always at the heart of the oil market action let's bring in john kilduff, he's a familiar face on our network. john, we heard steve's report. cnbc viewers have known for month fsz nots if not a year pl supply concerns were out there

what happened to drive crude prices down as far as fast from multi-year highs to where we are now just over the past month >> so the deal that opec and russia came together to do in 2016 that steve referenced worked for a while but they got help. they got help from nigeria being offline. venezuela cratering, libya as well now they got tricked here because they -- the russians and saudis ramped up production, ramped up exports ahead of what were supposed to be severe sanctions on iran. when the administration gave the eight waivers to iran's largest buyers, it undercut that whole equation now they went from really undersupplying the market by a lot. there was 140% compliance with this deal. this cutback deal at one point now it's down to barely 100% it's going south now we tripped into an oversupply situation almost

overnight because of the severe reaction by russia and the saudis to cover for the iran losses >> so we have an oversupply situation possibly that's the reason why we're seeing prices slide as far as they have. meanwhile we have the international energy agency saying that we could have a lack the thereof by the year 2020 that's maybe helping to put prices to a bid this morning what is the trend of oil given that supply/demand dynamic >> if you're trying to trade this thing, the 1.4 million barrel cutback that's been talked about now, you have to be skeptical of it. they're late to the game as far as trying to talk this thing up. i wouldn't trust it. to be up only 40 cents now after that kind of announcement, at first they were at 1 million over the weekend, now it's 1.4 this is classic stuff out of opec members you can't trust it i will tell you there's probably some blood in the street out

there. this has the look of forced liquidation, the way this thing sold off if you're trading it, now you want to be late to the rebound wait until you see the whites of the price recovery's eyes before you touch this thing for now the downward pressure is intense. >> one thing that mohammed barkindo told "squawk box" europe, he said that this is in their opinion the normal volatility that comes ahead of their conferences. we know they got a meeting coming up early december, 6th and 7th next month what do we expect out of that meeting? >> he's right to a degree. the way i reference it is the market forces oopec's hand eithe to the down side or upside right now they've gone from 1 million to 1.4 the market will see what else they can get out of them prices may be pushed lower still to generate a 1.5 to 2 million barrel type of cutback that's what they're facing

the other problem they have that's not of their making is the recent strength of the u.s. dollar, which has just been incredible so crude oil prices trade in direct opposite to that because it's dollar denominated. but also, too, the normal sort of demand response you should get from a price fall like this is of yaton i hav obviated by t. >> there in lies the demand part of the equation. which is not good right now. >> thanks for that update. oil prices a focus today >> thank you sdmro comi sdmro. coming up next, california is in crisis wildfires are tearing on both ends of the state. we'll bring you the latest on this story when "worldwide exchange" returns. (toni vo) 'twas the night before christma,

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the decision came after the president met with his trade team yesterday at the white house. the president had reportedly threatened to impose up to a 25% tariff on all foreign cars coming into the country. bmw up 2.5%. volkswagen up 1.5% gm up 1% premarket still ahead, the brexit indicator. today could mark a major moment for the uk negotiations with the eu full detail straight ahead plus a record breaking sale, this massive 19 carat pink diamond fetching some serious cash at auction stla night we'll tell you how much when "worldwide exchange" returns i there is a chance that's the last time. 300 miles per hour, that's where i feel normal.

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deal or no deal. it's a make or break moment for brexit negotiations. we have those full details straight ahead crude realities. oil rebounding after plunging deeper into a bear market. we'll drill down on the big move and weighing the risks not one, not two, not three, but four major global factors that could impact your money. we'll lay them out for you it's wednesday, november 14, 2018 you are watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. good morning welcome to "worldwide exchange."

i'm dominic chu. brian sullivan is off today. let's get you up to speed on this morning's top headlines frances rivera has the latest details. good morning >> good morning to you the heartbreak continues in northern california. the death toll in the camp fire is now 48. it's the deadliest fire in california history with dozens still missing. firefighters are still struggling to control the camp fire which has grown to 130,000 acres and 35% contained. full containment may not happen until the end of the month. outside of los angeles, the woolsey fire burned 97,000 acres but crews have made progress full containment is expected by sunday now california's tech giants are stepping in. airbnb is helping relief workers and victims get temporary housing. google and facebook are each donating between $250,000 to

$500,000 for relief efforts. we're one day away from the deadline to finish recounting the votes in the florida governor and senate race right now nbc news still has that florida senate race as too close to call. having trouble finding love? you could be living in the wrong place. wallethub ranked the top cities for singles. in at number one is atlanta. denver came in second. third place is san francisco new york was number 28 el paso, 15. the ranking took into account things like population and night life options dom, back over to you. >> i'm no longer single, but i'll pass that on to my single friends. >> as will i let's get you up to speed on the market action. futures are pointing to a slightly higher open for the dow. up by 28 points. the s&p up by a single point the nasdaq still lower by 11 to 12 points. let's bring in michael tyler

from eastern bank wealth management michael, many of the things that we focussed on for the past month at this point have been the stock market's issues. why it's in decline, and why it could still go down further. is this a sentiment that you share? should we still be worried about those risk assets in the u.s.? >> i think that a lot of the damage has been done clearly and i don't think we're on the precipice of a bear market i think the fundamentals underlying the economy are still strong so when you think about what is really worrying the market, it's frankly self-imposed stuff it's things that can change in terms of how rapidly the fed acts, whether they're giving too much forward guidance and whether they will raise rates too rapidly and stop too late in the game and extend the rate cycle. whether the trade and tariff issues are going to be allowed to fester and continue or whether the talks beginning now will lead to an agreement

with china those things can determine the overall direction of the market. certainly what's going on in oil now is a major factor in peoples minds. are we setting up for another 2015 where oil fell from 110 to 26 not really, but people are worried. right now there's a lot of turmoil. i think when all is said and done the underlying fundamentals are good inflation is not a problem oil coming down is helping that issue. interest rates are not extreme yet. so right now the fundamentals still support better valuations and better stock prices. but with a little turmoil going into year end. >> so, michael, those -- that scenario that you just painted for viewers, that suggests in my mind that bonds could still be a good place to invest little inflation, no hyper fears of growth. the fed will be more data dependent. so are bonds a good place to be

now? >> you know, right now the spreads, the credit spread between corporates and governments is extremely tight it has been for a long time. it can continue to be for a while. but that actually makes governments look interesting compared to corporates because you're not getting a lot of extra yield with corporates high yields are a different story. the risk with corporate and government bonds is whether the fed will go too far. let's assume that they don't i think bonds are less expensive as th than they used to be so bonds are not terrible. when we look at our asset allocations, we're telling investors not to go too far either way don't go too much into equities. don't go too heavily into bonds. you need both right now in reasonable proportions overall the bond market is looking better than it has in some time. >> all right

michael tyler, sounds like it's all about asset allocation, like it always is thank you very much for that update let's find out what else will be on the radar today kate rodgers has the top trending stories >> we have a bunch of great stuff. a nearly 19 carat pink legacy dimt just s diamond fetched more than $50 million at auction overnight that's the highest price per carat ever paid for a pink diamond. harry winston was the buyer. >> harry winston is a retailer they'll buy it they bought it for $50 million. >> who will buy it from them >> and how much will they market up by. we know they bought it for $50 million. will they sell it for 55, 60 >> who knows we are 41 days away from

christmas. if you're looking for the best time to buy a tree maybe wait about 40 more days according to a new study by square, christmas eve is the cheapest day to buy a tree the most expensive time to buy a tree is cybermonday, which is interesting because that's the day for big deals. >> it is a big deal day but it taps into the sentiment that people want to get right from thanksgiving into christmas. i will say growing up in my family, we put up our christmas tree not long after thanksgiving so it's a supply and demand thing. >> same here it's a perishable item once christmascomes, do you really wanted the tree i would rather pay more to have that three for three weeks as opposed to now >> you and i both love to save money. >> i do. >> i do like to enjoy the full season my mom would leave our tree up until like february because we had a fake tree, she never took it down. >> we left ours up until probably mid-january >> yeah. >> chick-fil-a launching

nationwide delivery service. they are partnering with door dash deliveries will be made within a ten-minute radius of locations in celebration of the service, chick-fil-a is giving away 200,000 free chicken sandwiches ordered through door dash through next tuesday i don't like to be biased as the food reporter, but chick-fil-a is great >> you're a fan, so am i >> yeah. >> thank you very much for that update coming up, a make or break moment for brexit negotiations wilfred frost in the house what's coming up >> it's great to be back in the "worldwide exchange" house it is the biggest single day for brexit since the vote itself 2 1/2 years ago. evytngoueed erhi y nto know coming up on "worldwide exchange." only half the story?

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we are keeping a close eye on the currency markets today could be a make or break moment for brexit negotiations wilfred frost joins us with more those currency markets are in focus because the pound is volatile >> absolutely right. yesterday uk prime minister theresa may was able to announce that the uk and esu have agreed provisionally on a brexit withdrawal treaty. sterling rallied on the news but significant hurdles remain most notably selling her deal at home in the uk today's specialically convened

cabinet meeting at 9:00 a.m. is a crucial test for her despite yesterday's jump sterling is still in the middle of the 1.27 to 1.32 range. if the cabinet meeting goes well for may, we could see it jump 2%, 3%, 4% and go above that range. if it goes badly we could fall by that amount and go below the 1.27 range what would badly look like here is theresa may's full cabinet. she will want to avoid any resignations at all, of course she may also be able to survive just one or two particularly if they're the likes of these people who have already made noises of discontent in recent weeks. if they go, she might be able to hold on. she would not survive if she lost the likes of raab, gove, javid or hunt. if they resign that would take us below the 1.27 range.

this, dom, probably the biggest single day for brexit since the vote itself 2 1/2 years ago. certainly the big the day for theresa may's premiership. >> wilfred, stick around come over to the desk, we want you in on this conversation. we will bring in journey stretch from skrshcibc jeremy, wilfred laid out a couple of different scenarios. a breakout to the upside on optimism, a breakout to the down side if she cannot get this sold to her cabinet what are you bracing for right now? >> i think wilfred set the scene very well. it is very much a case of whether theresa may can carry those senior government ministers with her today if she can do that, i think there is some scope forever sterling to appreciate i'm not convinced it will rally up towards that 1.32 level yet as soon as we pass this

particular hurdle, and that is a fairly significant hurdle of getting an agreement by the cabinet, markets will switch focus to the parliamentary math, and that proves troublesome. and that math probably has mo gotten more problematic after the resignation of boris johnson's brother last week. i think a move up through the early month highs around 1.30 is as ambitious as i would get. i think there's a case of a sell the rumor type strategy likely to play out as markets focus on those parliamentary votes ahead. >> interesting that you don't think it would break above the sort of four-month range if she holds the cabinet together what if we go further forward and this is all agreed by the eu and it passes parliament what number are we talking about then for sterling? >> if we can move past brexit, and that is a big if in the

current environment, you look at wage growth numbers, sterling can move into a much higher trading trajectory as the markets focus on the bank of england process. it will be the case that we are more likely than not to be trading in the mid 130s into the early part of next year. i think in the context of a safe passage through brexit, that is a big if, but if we can see that, then i think we can see sterling trading back into the 1.40 area on a 12-month view on the basis of the bank of england looking to hike rates twice and markets looking through the brexit problems. it is very much a case of needing to look through the next month or so. that's where there is incredible degrees of volatility as investors continue to price in the probability of a deal being passed through parliament. >> jeremy, what if things go badly for the prime minister today. she sees two, three, four high

profile cabinet resignations could that mean the end of her premiership? >> if there were to be high profile resignations, as you say i think the markets would take some of those low level cabinet ministers in stride, if you were to see one of those four big hitters who are integral to the brexit process for the prime minister, if one or more of those were to resign, i think you will be trading back towards the 1.27 lows. that would then add to the risk of a break up of the government and then you would start to see certainly more downside pressure playing out. i think it is a case of watching and waiting to see how the cabinet really plays out throughout the course of today and trading accordingly. certainly downside risk will be evident if markets were starting to price in the probability of a may premiership starting to unravel. >> jeremy, i just can't let you leave without at least a couple of moments here talking about the u.s. dollar.

we've seen a general trend of strength does it continue >> we have seen this strong bias wards the u.s. dollar. it's very much the case that the u.s. is the dominant factor in the global growth trajectory and the fed are very much set fair on additional tightening i think a moderation of growth and fed rate expectations into 2019 suggests that the uptrend in the dollar is pretty mature at this point. the euro is looking oversold italian political risks notwithstanding. so it's a case where the dollar, once we start to move towards year-end considerations moving out of the way, liquidity constraints diminish, i think we will have an easier or a cheaper valuation of the dollar going through the course of 2019 >> all right that could have a ripple effect in other markets as well jeremy stretch, thank you very much for that. >> thank you very much >> wilfred frost, great to have you here >> pleasure to be back

>> thanks. a big interview to tell you about coming up later on this morning. david faber is sitting down with liberty media chairman john malone catch that interview at 9:00 a.m. eastern time on cnbc. still ahead on this show, we're weighing the risks the four major global factors that could impact your money we'll run you through them that's coming up as we head out to break, another quick check of the futures which are showing a slight gain for the dow. up about 50 points the s&p up by 3. the nasdaq down by 8 k th us.

we are approaching the top of the hour, the team is getting ready for what's coming up mr. kernen, you have a lot on

your radar, i'm sure >> we do we will be monitoring this crazy oil story. oil prices plunge as oversupply worries prompt the steepest fall since 2015 i saw another forecasting recession in china we are also going to look more closely at this whole boeing story. we have not had gordon bethune on in a while. he's still around. former continental airlines ceo. and he's a pilot >> so he knows a thing or two about hardware >> he does and we have some other guests to talk about this boeing issue that has something to do with what happened in the markets yesterday.

the futures right now -- >> up about 70 points. this is the high so far. what do we want in the morning do you have a feeling for that >> we've seen this action play out before we haven't seen a 300 or 500-point fade >> not sure what to think of that strength in the morning and then it peters out senator rob portman, from the good part of ohio, from cincinnat cincinnati >> there are all great parts of ohio >> we can talk to him about the senate is this too incendiary -- >> yes if you have to ask me, yes don't say it. >> i'll send it to you, dom. it's a funny thing just found out my father --

>> yes it's too ind sicendiary >> i'll look for that. >> i'll send it to you >> this person's father never voted, was always a life-long republican >> all right >> i'll send it to you >> he's trying to help, too. everybody is trying to help me >> we're trying to help. thank you very much, joe let's bring in tim seymour from seymour asset management. the biggest global risks out there, what is at the top of your radar >> we have to be watching china the data this morning in terms of credit growth and retail sales, industrial production continues to weaken. i don't think the chinese macro is really what it comes down to. it's still the policy on the trade front. with oil it's an extreme move. it's one that certainly i think a combination of factors which include where spec positions are

starting to press the down side and look kroefr dowoverdown 12 straight closes, the first time we've done that on the futures markets in forever so does that mean we're facing a growth crunch? those are some things that seem to be overriding where markets are now. bottom line is we are watching trade. >> trade is important wh what else should we be focused on rates? >> you also talked about the we're at 17-month highs. my view is that the headlines and the macro coming out of europe will not get better if anything they will get more contentious or more troublesome with italy i think the central banks are the other part of this i would be most worried about the dollar setting the tone based on the perception of where fed and ecb

differences are widening again i don't want to preach doom and gloom. i think the macro is different than where we were in the fourth quarter of 2015. the setup for 2016 is something that i see al lot of similar cross currents in. the dollar is the biggest factor we also expected the fed to go in december then we do now. if you look at the rates curve, people are at least telling you that a growth scare is not priced in. at 3.25 we were worried about inflation. i would be more worried about growth and a growth scare than an inflation scare >> tim, is the stock market rout over >> technically i think we still have some plumbing to do if you look at some key indices and where we need to be, most notably also the leadership that is now missing and has been for some time, but the breakdown in semiconductors, these are the cyclical factors to watch.

i'm not going to necessarily tell you are we going to retest those lows and press lower, but right now i don't think the stock market, despite these wonderful seasonal effects needs to go a lot higher with a lot of uncertainty now. and i think an earnings season, while it was fine if you look at eps beats relative to expectations, no one needs to be guiding higher here. a lot of that good news is now rearview mirror. we have some more earnings this week we know about that i think a lot of that is priced in >> all right tim seymour, all those global risks we're keeping a close eye on thank you so much for joining us >> as always let's check the futures market we're at the highs of the session. the dow indicated to open up by nearly 70 points the s&p by 5 the nasdaq has ticked into positive territory crude oil markets are also

higher, not by as much as before we'll keep a close eye on those after some slightly bullish comments from opec epeye on "squawk box." that's coming up next. of economic activity every year. right before our eyes, aging is unleashing exponential growth... ...in every industry. are you ready? we are. a-a-r-p is teaming up with business leaders and innovators... ...sparking new ideas and real solutions. so, what are you waiting for?

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good morning crude prices plummeting but volatility means opportunity we'll show you the fallout from the oil slump in the markets the ceo of lending tree joins us on set this hour. and a major moment for brexit negotiations. the uk and the eu reached a draft divorce agreement. wilfred frost will tell us what comes next it's wednesday, november 14, 2018 "squawk box" begins right now.

♪ live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box." good morning welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc. we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square, i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and roandrew ross sorkin we are starting out with crude oil this morning after yesterday's 7% slide in wti. crude oil down 25% as soon as the four-year high hit on october 3rd. look this morning at this point it's up by 12 cents, still sitting at $55 and change. looking at the u.s. equity futures they are indicated higher futures are up