but still like it. >> thanks for being here and happy thanksgiving good seeing you. >> pete. >> weight watchers into the holidays, not a popular pick. >> it will be popular on friday. >> it will be. you're right >> boston scientific, unusual activity. >> quick. >> nvidia. >> good stuff. thanks, everybody. "power" starts now. weight watchers on friday. i got that one in my mind. welcome, everybody i'm tyler mathisen another big, big drop for stocks what's driving all this selling? how much lower could we go and how to protect your portfolio right now and bear market buys almost half the stocks in the s&p 500 are now down 20% or more from their recent highs. we'll tell you the blue chip names now worth nibbling at at these beaten down levels and off target, shares of the retailer tumbling after missing earnings estimates. a number of other big retail names also tanking on mixed results and weak guidance and the market's going up, analysts

overlook everything. when it's going down they nitpick everything what it means for the make or break holiday shopping season. "power lunch" starts right now and welcome to "power lunch. i'm melissa lee. another ugly day the dow down almost 600 points early. the nasdaq down almost 3% at session lows but still trading below 7,000 pushing deeper into correction at this time down by 1.8% on the dow. recovered earlier losses and even went positive briefly apple is the main drag there the f.a.n.g.s trying to find their bite they were tanking earlier trying to carve out gains and facebook and amazon struggleing there to hold on. if you include apple, these famous five stocks have lost about a trillion dollars in this recent tech -- crude oil

plunging to one-year lows moving further into bear market territory. >> melissa, i'm dominic chu. melissa, those are off their worst levels of the day but still firmly in negative territory with the s&p 500 down nearly 10% from its recent highs, back in late september, as you can kind of see here, this trend has been in place and we are seeing a little bit more of that discuss in today's trading down again close to 10% in just that span since those highs. right now, just around call it 43% of the s&p 500 are in a -- what some call a bear market territory. that is to say a 20% pullback from their recent highs as you can see here, 42%, again, theres about, moving in that level here, nektar they are put 'tis, general electric, talk about some of these, consumer focused names like l brands, down more

than 50% as well from recent levels and ones to watch, melissa, on that particular trade. back over to you. >> full team coverage of the market sell-off. steve is tracking it from the new york stock exchange and bertha from the nasdaq and courtney reagan taking a deep dive on retail and eamon javers at the white house and begin with seema >> we are off the lows but market breadthgettin getting be. strategists are forecasting a single digit return for the s&p 500 next year with a shift to higher-quality companies and the first time in many years analysts there expect cash to become more appealing to investors. this lends support to this rotation that we've already seen play out in the past month take a look at how some of these rate sensitive value driven sectors health care utilities

have fared on comparison to the broader benchmark, but etter with this market volatility it is worth noting earnings estimates have come down when earning season kicked off in mid-october they were expecting a 20% jump in earnings growth fallen to 17% and down to 6.9% and growth forecasted to slow what's leading us lower today, it's retail led by l brands after cutting its dividend other names mike -- like marriott trading down. down about 1%. the timing of the sell-off is notable, the s&p 500 has risen 80% on tuesday to friday of thanksgiving week but today's move could put an end to that streak tyler. >> all right, thank you very much seema. to bertha coombs at nasdaq tech stocks have been seeing a small recovery, right? >> yeah, small recovery but kind

of short-lived the reversal in the f.a.n.g. names this morning already fading and they really haven't lifted the communication sectors. we have seen some strength in chips coming on the heels of a research call this morning andrew lift saying he's buying nvidia now it hit a new low and said it's the first time in two years it offers appealing risk/reward well off its highs of the day, though that lifted some chip equipment maker names like applied materials and kla tencor, not enough to keep them in the green with the overall composite and large cap nasdaq 100 taking out their october lows and investors are not ready to call a bottom when it comes to the big stocks. ubs points out the tech sector has been slowing and concerned about the slowdown in smartphones but enterprise spending in tech remains strong especially in software still, they remain neutral on

tech for now and, dom, while the turkeys may be getting pardoned today tech remains on the chopping block. >> i see what you did there. bertha, thank you very much for that lots of other parts of the market on the chopping block so what do you do in this kind of a market environment and where are the opportunities? let's bring in kim forest a partner and senior portfolio manager at ft. pitt capital group and joe durant ladies first this environment in the marketplace is something we haven't seen for a couple of years generally speaking so where are the opportunities given this kind of selling pressure >> well, i always like to look out three to five years to give myself a nice buffer for whatever i'm buying to improve or prove out my theory on why i'm buying it and what i'm looking at is anything that could help businesses boost productivity productivity has been missing from this whole equation for the last ten years and i think given

the rising wages that businesses are going to want to invest in their people and make them more productive so at the very lowest level semiconductors look good especially made by intel and also software and i think that over time, this is going to play out as we need people to be more productive >> so softwarewise out of curiosity, your top pick you mentioned intel for the chip side of things we've seen some get beaten up. >> i like microsoft because it is a platform that companies have built their in-house sort of applications off of and they are using azure to move to the web and still have a lot of room to grow with moving their existing customers to the cloud and maybe getting new ones as well. >> so the wind trade in full

force. let's talk about the f.a.n.g. stocks nearly a trillion dollar shaved off the market values of those since their respective record highs. is that f.a.n.g. trade now attractive given the discount valuation? >> well, it certainly should be more attractive than it was. but i think you've got two things that are fundamentally different now than maybe two years ago. the first is the situation with china is an impact quite big on the technology stocks because it is how china can retaliate quite easily we're about to go from 10% tariffs to 25% tariffs at year end against china and they'll be responding in like, i suspect. so you have that overhang which is not great for the f.a.n.g. stocks, apple, facebook, all of them and then you have this regulatory change that's happening that is a concern for firms like facebook and google in the protection of client information and whether they've done enough to protect the data

and the amount of information they're collecting from people whether it's appropriate so you have an overhang that's a little different but most importantly what you have is a change in perception from people because this was the area where they were the generals holding up the entire market and they have now come down and i actually think it's quite optimistic for the market in general to see these leaders get corrections because what it does is it sucks out some of that speculation that was a little bit too rampant. i've been calling for a 15% decline earlier and we're getting it it's not bad we've just forgotten because for four years it's been so incredibly not volatile. >> let me turn to you, kim so far, it appears to me that the sell-off that really began in late september, early october, whenever you want to date it has been pretty orderly. would it -- should i take comfort in that or would it be better from an investment perspective if it was a little less orderly a little more

volatile and, therefore, you might be able to look and see and say this is a point of capitulation, a point of entry >> i knew you were going for that capitulation. >> capitulation. >> absolutely. yes. no, i mean, that would be great but every time is different, right. you know, if not we could let the machines trade and the machines would pick the stocks and off we'd go but i think each time really is different and the more consumer oriented names have sold off and that's because a lot of retail investors still own these as well as institutions so that's kind of creating this slow motion crash as opposed to, you know, people just saying i'm done with this i don't want to follow this name anymore and, you know, capitulate we'll just put it that way but personally i'd like to see that but i don't know that we get to decide that. >> joe, you don't think we've seen capitulation yet so to get back to your forecast that we

would see 15% kleins on the s&p 500 we're down about 10% from highs so does that imply a 5% downside from here are you getting ready to buy >> the nasdaq is down 15 and the way i look at it is simple, are we closer to the end or beginning of the correction and i would say we're not there yet. there's still a little bit nervousness to come. but the reality is we are repricing a lot of big and successful companies that will be fine regardless of tariffs and higher interest rates but you should expect that going forward from here, they will be more of a decline. i don't know that it would be a lot more i wouldn't be surprised it's a 3% to 5% and get a vix surge and it might be this rolling of a buy that muddles along for six to eight weeks but that's what we might see what i suggest for everybody watching is make sure your current risk allocation is appropriate for you so can you ride it out.

you should not be reducing risk right now because you've already had a 10%, 15% decline on the nasdaq and 40some percent of stocks are down 20% or more already and the economy is just fine >> got you >> i think paul could fix this in three seconds as jim cramer said it's one and wait we want to see what happens. we've had a bear market -- >> one and wait or we've got a deal could probably fix the whole market but we'll see if we get hose. >> kim forrest and joe duran seems like no capitulation. president trump about to take part in the annual white house tradition. the pardoning of the turkey. eamon javers has more on that and all the other headlines from the white house today. eamon. >> let's bring you up to speed on the actual news going on at the white house as well as the turkey pardon which is an annual tradition and much beloved first of all, this statement that the president just put out on saudi arabia, in essence what

the president is saying here that the united states is going to continue to stand by saudi arabia as an important ally despite the murder of jamal khashoggi, the president saying our intelligence agencies continue to assess all information but it could very well be that the crown pins, mohammed bin salman had knowledge of this tragic event, maybe he did and maybe he didn't so the president there seeming to be at odds with public reports from his own intelligence agencies which suggest that the intelligence agencies have assessed mbs as he's known the crown prince did order the murder of jamal khashoggi. the president willing to give the saudi leader a pass in essence because of the economic importance and political importance of the relationship between saudi arabia and the united states, also going on here at the white house today, we had national economic council director larry kudlow out on the white house driveway behind me talking about the market sell-off we've been seeing and making the point in his view

there is no recession around the corner larry kudlow saying these corrects as we're experiencing come and go but my personal view the recession is so far in the distance i can't see it. kudlow making the point that there might be another recession in the future at some point but not any time soon. he says that view which goldman sachs and others have expressed is nonsense, that's larry speaking this morning and now take a live look here at the white house at the turkey pardoning ceremony waiting for that to get under way here two turkeys involved are named peas and carrots one of the turkeys was brought into the white house press briefing room for reporters to take pictures of and there you see the turkey this is a mystery turkey because the white house press staff would not tell us whether it was peas or carrots so there's some investigative reporting to be done on this front as we wait for the president to emerge from the oval office and pardon one

or the other, perhaps both depending -- >> that looks like carrots to me. >> could be. >> if that turkey does not behave they will revoke its credential >> you know, there's been a lot of that around here lately let's not joke. >> right all right. eamon, thanks. >> you bet all right, shares of apple sliding into bear market territory. down more than 20% since october, fears of iphone sales but the apple trade coming up plus lots of retail stocks most are falling but one bright spot ow lchn all the details next o "perun."

the markets are selling off. another retail route the etf that tracks the sector down around 3% and 13% lower in two months, courtney reagan surveying the damage and the retail wreck is very much in full effect. we thought it would be good at this seasonably strong time of year. >> expectations are so high. it is hard to be a retailer right now. really think about it, target shares down 10%. they came up on earnings and comp sales missed slightly digital sales were 49% target's margin fell with pressure from filling orders and more inventory brought in for the holiday. i asked target's ceo if he still believes the consumer is as strong as he's ever seen

'said here on cnbc in august and reiterated in october. cornell said we see no change in the consumer environment then when i asked best buy ceo about the consumer on its media call he said, everything we are seeing about the consumer is very positive and we are feeling really good about the holiday season but he continued because the cycle has been going on for so long, everyone that's studied economics knows it can't last forever and as a result are convincing themselves it's going to end kohl's and best buy both beat estimates. kohl's shares are down 10% here. some of the reaction by saying investors are worried the best is behind us, that the retail turnaround that started last holiday season may be on its last legs. i think that's the best way to explain what's happening here because the reports really were not so bad. >> they were not that bad and i think it's sort of the glass

half full glass half empty and right now in the market sentiment being what it is, people seeing it as half empty. >> exactly. >> and things that used to get a pass are no longer now you're getting sent to detention for it. >> it costs money to invest in some of these things and investors app patience is wearing thin. >> what is funny, not funny but the thing that target said about its margin spending on fulfillment costs is exactly what macy's said about their margins. their e-commerce sales are growing but coming at a price in terms of the gross margin hit and so if you extrapolate this will be the cost of doing business against the likes of amazon, can they win that battle >> you're right and macy's i think is 37 straight quarters of double digit growth online that is expensive to continue so you can win the sales, but it costs you something to do that are you okay with that if you're an investor. >> how about best buy thinking that the light cycle fears are in his mind as well. joining the rest of the ceos

>> he was just sort of saying, look, i understand where that sentiment comes from and eventually if you think the cycle will end, it will. >> right, exactly. courtney, thank you. let's dig deeper joining is david schick analyst at consumer edge research. let's start off with target here how do you gauge the market reaction compared to what target actually reported? >> i agree with what courtney brought up and what you've talked about over the last hour. it's not about what's happening now, the retail management team, the businesses are performing and performing digitally and in stores, some of that is the economy and some is the hard work a lot of the retailers including target did in terms of investing in 2016 and '17 when the business model wasn't working all that well so that really created a tailwind to top line and frankly to return on capital coming into this year and it's starting to -- i

wouldn't say wear off or consumers are convincing themselves of something that will happen but it's looking out into next year, that sugar high -- >> so the -- >> i think that's what the conversation is about. >> the brief rise we saw in retailers, is that about as good as it gets it looked like a winning sector until early this fall and that's when arguably the consumer was probably at its best and we thought things were coming up roses for the economy. now we're looking forward to already saying the consumer might fall off, there might be economic weakness. did we see the best of days for the cycle? >> yes and no. i think it's a little more complicated, so what changed as a year went on, in early 2017 there were fears about a border adjustment tax those went away. in 2018 we got them back door for tariffs and changes 20, 30 years of competitive advantage that global supply chains have built for u.s. retailers so that

changed and as that became more and more sort of factored into markets and conversations, that's changed the algorithm for return on capital and that's what companies are worth over time so that's a piece but lapping tax cuts is a piece of it and we've done work on some macro data starting in may and it started to look at some of the predictive numbers on housing and started to paint a different picture for next year. we can sort of dissect why interest rates are higher, maybe it's borrowing but at the end of the day that papers a little different picture next year too. i think retail did a great job working on models but some of the rules are changing and that's making an impact. >> does target deserve to be down what is it down, 10% today based on the fact that it came in at 117 a share, i guess before items, compared with 87 cents a share in the year earlier that is, what that's got to be a 33% profit jump and same-store sales were up more than 5%. two years ago, three years ago,

a lot of retailers would have given their left arm for that kind of same-store sales jump. >> courtney said it. the day of earnings about expectation games. this week is about holiday this quarter is all about momentum and business models, of course, and then the season and next year so i think that you're talking about, you know, immediate reactions to small inflections but the big conversations are about the business models, the supply chains, you know, and the rules that are at work >> really good point >> david, thanks david schick >> shares of boeing reversing course big time today. down about 1% right now. so are markets shake off concerns about the company's problems with its 737 max planes we will have the latest. and the fall of a star nissan's ceo carlos ghosn arrested in japan. he may likely lose his job but could that be just the beginning? stocks still selling off

now down again morethan 500 points or 2% on the dow. nearly 2% on the s&p in the red for the year, those two, nasdaq closing in on the same

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lebeau joins us with more. >> melissa, it's been under pressure as questions swirl around just how much information the airplanemaker gave the airlines which fly the 737 max the issue revolves around whether or not pilots were informed about potential changes in software that may be needed in case the plane goes that a certain situation. very rare situation, the airline or the company boeing says, look, we were going to -- we have been telling people all along what's going on. it was supposed to have a call this morning to discuss this issue with the airlines. that call did not take place boeing says it regularly discusses these issues with the airlines and in an email to employs yesterday dennis mullenburg said i have supreme confidence in all of you and our products including the 737 max but when it comes to safety our standards of excellence can never be too high. he's referring to the fact that some people are questioning whether or not the 737 max is safe by the way as you take a look, we should point out many

questions surround the lion air crash and whether or not the pilots did not handle that situation correctly. they're still looking for the cockpit voice recorder that will provide investigators a better sense of how the pilots reacted in the final moments and whether or not they were confused in the cockpit given some of the changes that might be in the software of the 737 max 8s. >> let's talk about nissan execute carlos ghosn who was arrested yesterday in what's been described for what's been described as financial misconduct what's curious to me, phil, you cleared it up, this is not akin to a tax evasion it was that he did not accurately file disclosures having to do with his pay package. >> correct. >> in the united states i'm not sure that a person would be arrested for that. they might be charged but not taken into custody

>> well, that's a financial crime in japan and the reason it's important, tyler, is because there's been a big amount of backlash over the last several years about the pay package for carlos ghosn and really it's for all executives in japan generally speaking their pay is much lower than those who are based here in the united states or in europe and because carlos ghosn ho is making as much money as he was making, a lot said, wait a second, should that be the case that has to do with why some people are saying, look, did they file a report saying i didn't make as rush. the renault board is meeting tonight. we may get a decision whether he remains ceo and nissan's board meets thursday we heard the ceo say we're going to push to have him removed as chairman and mitsubishi, the board will meet soon, so as you look at this and mitsubishi by the way issuing a statement essentially saying since the alleged misconduct is related to a corporate board governance and compliance issue, it is proposed

to the board of directors that they promptly remove ghosn so that's what's happening and this week, guys, shares of renault and nissan not surprisingly are under pressure and for good reason carlos ghosn was the architect of the alliance that brought them together in the late '90s, he really was the glue that held it together and the question becomes, what happens with the alliance going forward without carlos ghosn >> thanks very much. president trump pardoning a turkey at the white house moments ago. annual tradition of thanksgiving let's look at the playback the president in a forgiving move. >> in this grand tradition i'm pleased to announce today's lucky bird and guestss of honor is peas and his alternate car t carrots. the winner of this vote was decided by a fair and open election conducted on the white house website. this was a fair election

unfortunately carrots refused to concede and demanded a recount and was still fighting with carrots and i will tell you we've come to a conclusion, carr carrots, i'm sorry to tell you, the result did not change. too bad for carrots. peas and par ccarrot. >> he has decided to give peas a chance the president, pardoning peas the turkey >> i see what you did there, tyler. well, stocks now selling off once again today the s&p 500 down 8% since just the beginning of october one big drag concerns about the overall economy. how realistic are those recession fears? we're going to debate that, plus, with more than 40% of the stocks in the s&p 500 now in bear markets, some of them have to be good buys at this point, right? we'll get some bear market buys comi uonngp "power lunch. keep it right here

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re riera. in the wake of the khashoggi killing, among other points the president says the u.s. intends to remain a steadfast partner of saudi arabia to ensure the interests of our country, israel and all other partners in the region. a u.s. judge temporarily blocked an order by president trump which barred asylum for immigrants who entered the country illegally from mexico. the ruling takes effect immediately and lasts until at least december 19th. more issues for facebook the social media confirming that, quote, some people are having trouble accessing the facebook family of apps, end quote. that includes instagram and whatsapp it comes a week since the desktop site was taken offline for 30 minutes. ahead of thanksgiving do not do this. firefighters in florida showing what happens when you don't defrost your turkey. before you drop it into a fryer,

that is. safety experts stress the importance of measuring the oil that backyard cooks need to use. do not overfill the pot. okay you're forewarned. that's the new update back to you. >> flaming ball of fire if you throw in a frozen turkey the dow dropping 500 points. down almost 600 at the lows of the session, though. apple, walgreens, leading the declines and nasdaq pushing deeper trading below 7000 off 14.5% off recent highs oil is tanking and crude hitting a one-year low falling into bear market territory more on the oil trade straight ahead. >> well, a wide variety of issues causing big sell-offs but what is the number one thing

businesses are worried about jackie deangelis has that answer from our cnbc cfo survey >> dom, good afternoon that's right the top external risk factor, this is according to the cfos we surveyed is trade policy we need to reiterate 35% said it's their main concern this quarter last quarter interesting, though, when they were asked what congress should focus on in 2019, almost half said infrastructure spending while only a quarter said it should be the trade agreements meantime, moving on to the markets and the fed about 60% said they see a rate hike coming in december for next year this is interesting almost half said two hike, a little more than 40% are still looking for three hikes. on the stock market, a notable shift here, guys, more than half said they think the dow will fall back below 23,000

last quarter they were unsure, the quarter before they thought the dow was going to surpass 27,000 for the first time so they were very optimistic. some of the confidence certainly eroding here on treasuries nearly all the cfos think the ten-year yield will be over 3% at the end of the year and majority think it will be 3 to 3.25. rising rate, falling stock, trade policy issues, really kind of set us up for a volatile 2019. >> all right >> jackie, thank you very much while cfos worry about trade fed official as peer in some cases to be getting more dovish. are these signs the economy is headed for a slowdown and maybe even a recession in 2019 let's talk about it with jared bernstein and lanny chen welcome. good to have you with us let's get the big one out on the table. first, jared do you think a recession is possible by late 2019 and put a

percentage on it >> i would say the likelihood of a recession by late 2019 is probably between 10% and 20% because i don't see overheating and don't see financial imbalances now there's always the possibility of an unforeseen supply shock but in terms of overheating consider the following statistic. the core pce price index has been within five basis points of the fed's 2% target for 5 months in a row just an uncanny amount of inflation anchoring. of course, expectations matter but they too are well contained. however, i don't want to lose my gloomy economist card. what i do think is coming is a very serious problem just because you don't cross zero doesn't mean that growth deceleration isn't a problem and, in fact, i expect growth to decelerate significantly maybe 150 basis points by the end of 2019, early 2020. >> you could have slow growth

and a little bit higher inflation, i suppose in that recipe lanhee, what do you see as you look out a year hence? >> yeah, i mean i agree with jared. i think it's a relatively low likelihood event in 2019 the focus on early 2020 and early indicators new building permits which tend to be about a 16-month out indicator have suggested that there might be some slowing and potentially a recession. that's q1 of 2020, not a 2019 occurrence and obviously as your previous reporter indicated, this question of trade and what's happening in particular with china has the potential to really bring us into -- into focus in the latter half of 2019 potentially into 2020. obviously a lot of this is in the president's control, quite frankly. if the president is able to eke out some kind of a ray of hope at the g-20 meeting in buenos aires in a couple of weeks that might begin to back us off but

2020 is where i would really keep the focus at this point. >> let me turn -- i totally agree trade is right there but lanhee, let me turn you to the fed. do you think the fed should as some have called for take the foot off the hard brake and maybe wait a little bit into 2020 before raising rates? presumably they raise them in three weeks' time? >> yeah, i mean i think the likelihood of a december increase is very high. as we move into 2019, i think, you know, they ought to be looking probably more closely at two rare than four or two rather than three but i don't see a strong rationale there for backing off completely i do think that once we get up toward neutral, you know, likely will want to slow things down a little bit but in terms of completely taking the foot off, no, i don't think that's called for as we move into 2019. >> same question to you, jared

a lot of people including our own jim cramer have said that the fed could do well and serve the economy and the markets by backing off a little bit and taking a wait and see attitude do you agree >> you know, i kind of do. i wouldn't call what they're doing by the way hard braking. i think the forward guidance has been extremely explicit and i consider, you know, something like 25 basis points, a quarter to be more of a brake tap than a brake slam but given the fact that there's so many other kind of headwinds doing the fed's work for them, whether it's a strong dollar, whether it's declining price of oil, whether it's global markets, whether it's equity markets, whether it's the treasury rate kind of pushing up, i think there are enough factors that are kind of slowing things down especially on the price side that the fed could afford to take a pause within the normalization campaign i don't think it's a huge deal either way but if i were sitting around that table i'd want to entertain that possibility >> yeah, i take your point

i think my metaphor of putting the foot hard on the brakes is in a in a inept. maybe by half a point as opposed to a quarter point thanks, guys we appreciate it lanhee, jared. >> thank you the s&p 500 hovering in correction territory down just about 10% from its most recent highs but more than 40% of the stocks in the index are in their own bear markets down 20% or more from their highs. is this an opportunity we've got six stocks that could be bear market buys right now. "power lunch" is back in two

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yet? we have two chief investment officers here with their best bear market buys david katz, chief investment officer of mat trix and peter anderson, chief investment officer at anderson capital management and we'll start with your picks and do them in order. number one, david, ebay, why is that on your shopping list >> so we think there are a lot of great buys here we would be buying if you have a 6 to 12-month time line. ebay, strong company, great management and buying back a lot of stock that sells at 12 times earnings so you're getting a very good business that 12 times earnings and jem that's a good way to make money. >> up about 1% so far in the trading day and otherwise down tape peter, united rentals is your pick. >> think 12 times earnings is cheap, how about seven times that's what they're trading at normally trades north of ten times earnings so this is a

classic value play and a very, very simple business unlike high-tech companies, et cetera, this is an equipment rental company drastically oversold for the past year or so. >> all right, so we'll see what we can do on infrastructure on the d.c. side of things, maybe that pro-tells shares. david, your next pick in the oil field services patch >> so, we think oil is at the lower end of its trading range and actually think it will go up over the next three months schlumberger is the best and the stock has done miserably down 28%, at a ten-year low pays a 4% dividend really good management and think as oil comes back this is due for a great catch-up we think it's got 30% upside east. >> i >> deep value play and peter, your next one is the hottest and coldest chip stocks out there. tell us about nvidia >> well, unlike united rentals with i have a classic value play and simple to understand business this is the opposite. this is a growth story and it's a more complicated business,

right? and i do believe that it has been drastically oversole, sure, there is negative news out there about the overhang of inventory. but to us, two periods of inventory cleanup, that's not an infinite time and that does seem to take over things and i really i think that within two quarters nvidia will be back on track. >> that hot chip play back in focus for peter and, david, your final pick, it's a name we all know >> yes, google so, the faang group has been devastated and still think there are a lot that are high valuations but google selling 18 times earnings if you adjust for cash about 15 times earnings thfrment a good growth company they're going to be able to navigate more regulation so you're getting a good growth company at a really good price we think you buy here, if it goes down more you guy again, a year from now we expect to to be 20% to 30% higher.

>> peter, the last one to you. this is a name we have not heard of and it's international. >> yes, i picked that on purpose. adr, swiss hearing aid company a lot of research is final going into hearing aids. used to be the stone stone age technology where people were wearing adds that were simple amplifier. this is intelligent hearing. one day it might use the nvidia chip it ties into an oversold company that i think has tremendous potential from a demographic perspective. >> all right david's picks, e-bay, slummer bay, and fall fa bet thank you all very much. to the bond report rick santelli. rick >> one week of 30-year bonds seven straight sessions of lower yields on the close, this would be number eight.

it's down two basis points look at a september 4th start of ten-year, what a top it has all the perfect traits of a top. now the over and under is which side of 3% we may close out 2018. a big day today, dollar index. look at the intraday and one-week chart the way it rounded out holding the 96-level the end of october, what's interesting is we've only had two closes above 97 since basically june of 2017 that was the comp we had when we reached that high of 97 .54. we're close to that level and once again the momentum of the dollar index seems to come alive when it gets around that 97 handle dom, back to you >> thank you, rick apple one of the major factors in the selloff today it's the biggest drag on the dow right now. shares sliding into that 20% fall area.

what's that's a major downgrade by goldman sachs. we have the details after this quick break. hi, kids! i'm carl and i'm a broker. do you offer $4.95 online equity trades? great question. see, for a full service brokerage like ours, that's tough to do. schwab does it. next question. do you offer a satisfaction guarantee? a what now? a satisfaction guarantee. like schwab does. man: (scoffing) what are you teaching these kids? ask your broker if they offer award-winning full service and low costs, backed by a satisfaction guarantee. if you don't like their answer, ask again at schwab.

apple weighing on the tech getting another price cut by goldman sachs. shares sliding down 20% from the most recent high josh is tracking the fallout from san francisco hi, josh >> reporter: a new note today. it was not good news for apple reiterating the neutral rating on apple as you noted, they slashed the price target to $182 down from $209 he sees weakness in demand for apple's products in china and other emerging markets tim cook called out emerging markets as a sore into the he mentioned turkey, india, int brazil and russia. a big champ of the holiday quarter typically comes closer to christmas hall says it's possible things

could change, but he's not betting on it. investors concerned. apple is down nearly 20 % this month. how do bulls respond i checked in with dan at wed bush he says investors should be buying the drop. apple is attractively valued they say iphone average selling prices and buybacks will help apple meet the forecast and revenue and earnings >> josh, thank you very much apple fears, retail fears, fears. the 2:00 p.m. has turned into one of the most volatile hours on wall street, and look at the red on that map. get ready for what could be a wild hour ahead. do not go anywhere the second hour of power begins after the break. you see there about four out of five of the s&p 500 stocks are rehagaveod mo tn that

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cme group - how the world advances. ♪ welcome to the second hour of power lunch a selloff on wall street as the major averages fall led by technology and energy shares the dow and the s&p 500 wiping

out all of 2018's gains. the nasdaq had fallen into negative territory as well but bounced back mid-morning it's down 15% from the record high the s&p 500 and nasdaq hitting correction territory and has the first staggering stat. the pop your fang stocks have lost more than $1 trillion in value from their highs >> thank you very much i'm tyler mathisen along with domin domin dominic. stocks continue to tumble. the dow was down nearly 600 points earlier in the day. we are watching the action at the new york stock exchange. steve is on fed watch. jackie is tracking crude's collapse let's kick it audiotape with seema. >> we were down 598 points at the lows we've come off that level. just about 534 the state of the consumer, that seems to be the big concern on

the trading floor following the disappointing reports from a number of big retailers. target earnings missed according to increased investments on online that weighed on profit margins lows cutting the forecast. raw stores with soft guidance and talk of tougher calms ahead. these concerns around the consumer started last week the retail etf is down about 8% since last tuesday the big e losers, apple, chevron, and eaven sacs trade still getting a lot of attention ahead of the g-20 meeting next friday. boeing, caterpillar, united technologies are down about 1 to 2% unlike yesterday the dollar is getting a bid as are treasuries putting pressure on gold and oil. keep a close eye on vix. above 23 suggesting volatility is slowly

creeping higher. >> all right thank you seema. let's check in with bertha >> you talk about the staggering stat of the five largest companies having lost a trillion dollars in market cap. we talk about those fang 4 they have lost much of the day's gains. but the biggest drag is apple. it is unquestionably the break down in the stock it's on pace for the worst month since the financial crisis ten years ago single handedly responsible for a third of the nasdaq and the s&p's decline this month apple stock is now in bear market territory down more than 20% from highs. it does remain up for the year and up 18% from the year's low in the stock in february but fears of that apple iphone growth slump are weighingon tech overall and combing through the wreckage of the large caps in the nasdaq 100, i could only find a hand

full of stocks, tech stocks particularly, that are not in correction, still within 10% of their highs. among those with relative strength, most of them trading down today t mobile is up about 2% year to date xilinx up near to date and sit rix up 20 % year to date last i checked sysco moved out of correction but still trading lower. >> a lot of movement bertha, thank you for that let's drill down on the fang trade. since the close yesterday take a look at the big falls for some of the big names amazon losing a quarter of the value from the recent highs in early september. that amounts to just around $250 plus billion in market cap as of yesterday's close. facebook down after hitting the lowest level since february 2017 yesterday. it's now fallen over 40% from the recent highs in late july.

then you have alphabet and apple joining their peers in the territory down 20 % or more what some folks call a bear market territory. 20% from the recent highs. 150 billion for alphabet with netflix down about 60 plus billion dollars. factor in the losses and what you have is $945 billion of lost market value more than apple's current valuations, but again with today's decline, apple and the other fang members are now either lower or hovering near break even the losses have eclipsed 1 trillion we have more on that story go to cnbc.com >> let's go with a look at how the market volatility could impact fed rate hikes in 2019. or at least the forecast >> it's volatile fairly dramatic rethink of the

fed underway for 2019 while the markets still see the fed hiking in december. the number of hikes and the timing for next year being called into question here are the probabilities december trading into 75% probability. worth noting that's down from a high of 90% in that contract june '60%. it looks high. it had been above 50% for march. it's pushed -- >> where is march? did march decide not to have march? >> we only have the ones there with the 50% probability >> march is below 50%? >> below 50% not happening in march the first 50% in march of 2019 is -- it could be a good month you have to be optimistic. in any event, the first probability is in june and i had had another one there. i had september up near 50% nfblt not anymore. october is the next highest one for that second rate hike for 2019 just trading at 31%.

we think the likelihood of a time-out on rates remains very low but likelihood that the fed might at least temporarily slow the pace of its rate hikes is increasing fed speak behind the change thinking with the fed chairman talking about the risks of going too fast and too slow in equal terms. one writes powell's recent comments suggests a dovish shift in the chair's message john williams yesterday said we'll likely be raising interest rates somewhat it's in the context of a free economy. it will take more than just market gyrations to keep the fed from the appointed tasks of hiking they seem committed to bringing it to neutral. 2 .5 to 3.5%

if the economy waeakens, it wil be on the low end. not just the market. bring the data down. i know it's hard to remember when the market is down, but the economic data has been super strong >> absolutely. steve, thank you very much >> pleasure. we want to bring in two market experts one says the recent selloff is more about growth than interest rates or the dollar. the other says this difficult decline since september has him seriously testing his bullish resolve. let's bring in the chief investment officer with woodear trust, and hugh johnson advisers welcome. good to have you with us >> terrific. great to be here >> you say the markets today are discounting the possibility of a big slowdown in 2019 or there abouts, and a policy misstep you say neither of those is likely to happen which would imply you think the market is going to steady and move up. am i right >> yes

and let's back this up i'll point to valuations where the bond market is and what is being expected for earnings growth. the p/e ration on the s&p 500 is close to 15 times after this damage analysts are expecting earnings to grow at 9%. the ten-year bond yield is just above 3% let's keep that in mind. assume for a moment that the bond market is right that means today's valuation is actually implying a zero percent earning growth rate for next year and the year beyond that's how the math works out. if the analysts are right it means the ten-year bond should be 50 to 75 basis points higher than today those are very dramatic outcomes and we don't believe the growth outcome from today's valuations or interest rate assumptions are likely to materialize.

look things are slowing down. it's almost interesting, because it should have caught nobody by surprise everybody knew growth would taper down the market's violent reaction is suggesting a far more dire consequence. we see growth slowing down >> just slowing. not cratering. >> correct so your options, your many choices are will we have a modest tapering of economic growth will we have a sharp slowdown or outright recession >> you're in camp number one >> camp number one gdp slows down to 2 %. >> let me bring in hugh johnson to get his reaction to what was just said. do you see it that way in light of what we began with by saying it's your bullish resolve that's getting a little wobbly in. >> well, your bullish resolve has to get a little wobbly when you see the markets decline and you see the internals turn on the bearish side

i like what he said. i watched and listened carefully as he walked us through the valuation argument i think that's kind of the silver lining behind this really dark cloud i think it is the case if you put all the numbers together that we've gotten to a level that's undervalued even assuming, and everybody seems to know this we're going to have a growth slowdown in the growth rate of the economy from 2 .9 to roughly 2.5, 2 .6 in 2019 and a slowdown in the growth rate of earnings from roughly the 22% level to 8 or 9% level. put it together. he is right on it still means we're going to have an ongoing bull market and again, the silver lining is in my judgment and his judgment, is that we've gotten to a level that's undervalued or represents at a buying opportunity. and i think that's really where we are >> all right let's go through the -- you make a very clear case for why we should see higher stock market

values what exactly then is happening right now? what in your mind is taking place? is it a simple revaluation of growth parts of the market and if so, how much deeper could it go before that constructive move back to the up side >> the biggest driver behind the selloff is the repricing of stocks to lower growth expectations in 2019 a couple of other things happened along the way this started when the ten-year bond yield broke through 3% in early october. then we had greater uncertainty on the fronts of trade, brexit, italy. the biggest driver is growth this is what it comes down to. if we end up with a recession in the next year or two, there is more downside in a likely bear market if we don't see it, we'll end up with a correction, and this 2650 level on the s&p 500, if we end there, this will be a triple bottom that might be the end of it before we resume growth. >> so if you were watching the dow approach the previous

session lows right now down by 540 points 2018 is basically a doover now at this point. i mean, we erased all our gains. we're in the red for all three major indices. with this backdrop, what do you and your bullish resolve invest in >> well, the first thing is i think that you have to be responsive in this business. the trends that are going on in the markets. in other words, you simply can't ignore them even though you might think this is a buying opportunity or the market is undervalued or may think it's only a correction in an ongoing bull market. that means when we now hit the 117-month market for the bull market, obviously that's the longest bull market in history it makes some sense. it's rational to take some money off the table. in other words, to reduce your exposure to equities if you own equities, you might shift a little bit from the so-called economically sensitive, the bull market sector so the market into the

beer market sectors of the market, or the bull markets are bear market sectors. look at consumer staples and health care. they're performing well now. you look at companies like cds you look at companies like walmart which offer pretty good dividends and also offer some really good relative performance. i'm saying maybe reduce your equity exposure some, and also shift within your portfolio shift to the more let's call it defensive equities again, given the fact that you got to be responsive in this business to trends that are in the market. >> hugh, thank you thank you both >> coming up, one analyst downgraded the chip sector in september ahead of that big selloff. what does he think now he joins us next plus this stock market sinking to a two-year low on track for the worst day since 2011 that mystery chart there is a big name in banking. that name and how to trade it also coming up ahead

and the mixed bag for retailers today as well after several missed the mark on earnings. what does that mean as we head into the holiday shopping season and as we head to break, take a look at the s&p 500 sectors right now. not a single one in the green. even the utilities have drifted fractionally into negative territory. energy pacing the declines by far. "power lunch" is back in two minutes. ♪

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one of the biggest blue chips in tech, apple, now in off 22% since the recent high. apple's loss making big waves across the tech sector chris is with us part of the concern was when apple reported earnings. then we got the momentum going on the downside when a lot of the suppliers started reporting production cuts, et cetera weak demand from a key customer. how -- how concerned are you about that impact? i mean, the supply chain has never been a great read through for apple. and yet, this time the market is treating it as if it were. >> right i think the supply chain cuts that we've seen over the last two weeks with apple came after apple reported their own earnings oftentimes apple will report their own earnings before they notify suppliers i don't think this round of cuts

is necessarily incremental to apple's december quarter however, it does indicate what's fairly obvious at this point iphone various versions of iphone are not selling as well as what apple would have wanted. and what i think that brings into question is what happens when we go into q 1 and we go all of next year and i think that's what the market is worrying about right now. >> yeah, and you got a hold rating on apple. in terms of the semi conductors, we pointed out you downgraded the sector the beginning of october. since then the philadelphia semi conductor index is down by 10% we have seen the declines in this group prior to the selloff that we saw in october do you think the worst is behind the sector >> i don't think so. at least i don't know so and in semis, you generally have two problems in a downturn one is the demand picture is a moving target. some of the apple suppliers only were notified a little over a week ago that the demand picture as weakened.

again, we don't know what will happen toward the end of this quarter or ext that's a moving target the other bigger problem is that over the last year we probably shipped more into the channel than the channel consumed. supply conditions are tight. that gave customers the incentive to build inventory and that inventory burned at a magnitude that's difficult for semi conductors to assess at this point that's why a lot of these guys don't know what the demand picture is going forward, and it's just difficult. with that it's hard to call a bottom >> with that said, you have overrate ratings nvidia seeing a pop after citron rated it is this the time to go in? it's hard to see what the supply and demand picture is, you just said >> right on a relative basis, nvidia, at least after that report and the

big down, they've taken a big chunk out of the expectations going forward. for general in semis, we're looking for companies that have come soft confessional, talked about the fact that commademand weaker tried to dial it into the estimates. with that you have better chance of having that in expectations in the numbers and out of all the companies reported so far, nvidia confessed the most >> krichris, thank you for your time yep. >> goldman sachs down 3% on track for the worst year since 2011 is it time to buy them and look at the dow 30 heat map. apple and walgreens. power lunch is back in a minute with the dow down 518 and no stksn e ee

lunch. i'm mike this is trading nation goldman sacs on track for the worst year since 2011. plunging 30% from the recent

high how should people trade now? matt, this is one of the weakest big names in a very weak group a tough stock to own when the overall market is having trouble. there's kind of a scandal that's invel lopped the company as well can you make a contrarian case on a technical basis at all? >> well, you can on a short-term basis. the stock is oversold if you look at the daily rsi. a lot of technical damage is done it's broken below the 200-week moving average also even though it's daily rsi is oversold, the weekly rsi is not as oversold as other important bottoms. you mentioned it's a one, two punch. the issue with the scandal could be clouding over the stock i wouldn't sell it here. a rally, you might want to look at bank of america whose chart looks better >> michael, what about you

goldman sachs' used to trade at a premium. >> i think they'll get back there. we love the banking sector with tax stimulus, you'll see the sector rise. i think goldman, the damage is done they're trading seven times next year's earnings. they'll get back there's been a skakds, but i think they have the best and most attractive product set to drive growth going forward in the next 12 to system mon18 mon. >> we'll see if the market comes to that kind of thinking dom, back to you thank you. coming up on the show, crude oil on pace for the first negative session and worst day in this week the head of the international

energy agency warning an unprecedented period of uncertainty. where do prices go from here as we head to break, a look at some of the names bucking the trend. papa john's, shake shack, jetblue, snap, best buy. lots more ahead on "power lunch. keep it right here now the latest from trading nation and a word from our sponsor. in a losing trade, avoid letting your emotions get the best of you. too often traders want to add to a losing position. but experienced traders will say your first loss is your best loss in other words, take a small ssnd move on before it becomes too big.

hi, everyone here's your cnbc news update a policeman in brussels was stabbed outside the city's main police station today he was taken to the hospital with nonlife threatening injuries the attacker was shot and critically wounded authorities are now investigating it as a possible terror attack. former cia director panetta says president trump's

questioning of how long it took the u.s. to kill bin laden demonstrates a, quote, lack of understanding of how our military and intelligence agencies operate trump lashed out as a retired admiral who organized and executed the bin laden raid in pakistan in may of 2011 and mr. trump said, quote, wouldn't it have been nice if we got bin laden sooner wouldn't it been nice, end quote? panetta calls trump's remarks ridiculous a new study from the cdc found one in more adults sit for more than eight hours a day. over 44% also reported no moderate or vigorous activity during the week. and on an optimistic note. look at that young lady. that's a two-week old child giraffe named ella she's in berlin. she's a vital addition her species is on the red list, on the brink of extinction

hope springs e ferternal in ella that's the news update this hour dom, back to you >> i love baby giraffes in a down market. it's something nice to talk about. let's talk about the red markets right now. markets are selling off. we are just off of our session lows but still deep in the red with the dow, the s&p and nasdaq. you can see they're off by close to 2 % or more in the case of the dow industrials. all 11 s&p 500 sectors are lower led by energy on falling oil prices tech and industrials moving to the downside as well all 30 dow stocks are in the red led by apple goldman sachs' a some of the names in the green because it's not all bad zillow, spotify, w-d 40 making moves to the up side

oil market closing for the day. let's go to the commodity desk >> crude oil breaking through the $55 a barrel mark. yesterday we said if there's another leg lower, there has to be a catalyst. it's stocks or opec. stocks came first. the whole tie-in between stocks and oil is on the demand side. we have ample supply if demand weakens, we start to see a problem again in terms of the buildup. today's session low was $52.77 a sense of how volatile this trade is on the session down about 6.5% >> all right jackie, thank you so much for that let's get more on oil and where we go from here. john founding partner and also the founder of again capital he's also a contributor. he joins us right now. john, the oil market dynamic has been negative for a long time now. it's been supply concerns. it's now been fear of demand

concerns how exactly is that reconciling in today's trade why is it so much lower in today's trade? >> it's a one-two punch for it the things the stock market is worried about, it's a concern to the oil market the global demand story. the trade war story. all of these things go to a hit on oil demand as jackie was pointing out the rub the other way is that russia and saudi arabia put oil on the market ahead of the iran sanctions on november 1st thinking there was going to be a clamp down in iran and we were going to lose upwards to a million and million and a half barrels of iranian oil a day trump administration issues waivers to all of iran's buyers causing us to lose practically no iranian oil now we have the iranian oil on the market, and the united states with almost 12 million barrels a day of production. >> how long is it going to take to work off this particular

latest glut in the oil market? is there a sense that there's a balance coming? we say this, again, just ahead of an opec meeting in a couple weeks. >> the saudis are trying to muster a response. they're trying to maneuver into a 1 .4 million barrel per day cut. no support from the russians is latest selloff may get them there. the winter season we're going into right now, that's the peak demand for the world they'll get help from that or should they have a tough road and the saudis will have to shoulder the burden after trying to get the market higher in price >> we've seen the unwind of the long branch short net gas trade. it caused oil to come down where are we in that and how are traders positioned at this point? are we going to hear about heng funds blowing up, getting the margin calls in this quarter >> no doubt about the blowups.

there's been one notable retail blow up. a company that sold options on natural gas. folks are left with debits in their accounts if you trade commodities, you can lose more than all your money. be careful with that beyond that yes, there's some forced liquidations right now. we'll have to see. the price point we hit today, the low, the 52. $7. heavy volume a nice jump back from it given that, there could be a blowoff bottom we'll have to see how the chart looks in the next couple of days there's a chance for that. for sure what happened in the beginning of october, this market was all bulled up the wall street analysts were saying tight supply. strong economy $100 by the end of the year. here we are. this is what happens there's a massive selloff. we're probably seeing the pendulum swing the other way >> when you believe the pulbull you got a problem. >> i always say believe in yourself

>> how long is it down to last >> it's going to last through the end of the year. and there's a lot more to come here in new jersey you can get gas for about $2.50 a gallon >> yeah. >> another 10 or $0.15 lower in new jersey south, south carolina, low tax states, those consumers could be seeing below $2 a gallon all the worries i know that consumers are having right now about the stock market, they are going to feel a lot better when they pull up at the pump that might help the retailers? >> john, again, capital. >> thank you guys, let's get over to erik for a market flash >> falling to session lows on a report it could have steered thousands of student borrowers into higher rates. the education department has not shared the audit's findings with the plaintiffs or the public

a leg lower on the news. >> thank you home builder stocks moving lower. we are joined with that story. >> reporter: look, it should come as no surprise after the abysmal builder sentiment number yesterday that single family housing starts in october fell compared to a year ago it was the biggest annual decline in over a three years. we're at the slowest pace in four months. single building family permits saw their first annual drop in over four years. the reason starts and permits are down is because demand is down demand is down because prices are so high and prices are so high because builders are not adding up in supply. it's circular with the housing market eating itself rising mortgage rates are the culprit and they're behind the odd moves in the builder stocks. the home builders are doing okay

today. that may be because fed watchers expect fewer rate hikes and as the market sells off, bond yields move lower. that means more mortgage rates move lower mortgage rates don't follow the fed. affordability is unlikely to improve. it's expected mortgage rates will move higher into next year. >> all right thank you for that update on housing. coming up, we're headed to the charts for clues on where this market could be headed next with the markets down more than 500 points, the dow at this point, "power lunch" is back in two minutes.

a big selloff on the street. the dow and s&p 500 negative for the year where do we go from here steve, good to see you let's start with the s&p 500 we are climbing back from the session low. what do you make of the ashen and what level should we watch >> let's pull back the camera a little bit and take a peek at the levels this is your recent october low. that's where i think we have to do at minimum test the levels there. what i would like to do is test this level right here. that's the february low.

when we spoke last week, i said that we had to head to here or here the longer we take to do these tests, the more we have to get deeper into those levels, because we're just putting off the inevitable right now so today we tested this level which is the 2629 level in the s&p 500. that's the last retracement when you go from the february low to the all-time highs, you come up with your retracement levels that's the last line of defense before you get here. obviously we have that recent low to deal with but these are the levels tha you should know. one, two, three. if we hold this level, which we have today, we got pretty close. 2632 was the low today we're in good shape for the bulls. that's only a very short-term support level. this level, i don't think will hold i think right now it's a vacation week. maybe even the market has the luxury of people leaving their

desks early for thanksgiving i think ultimately we should be here or here that gives the market the ability to have a substantive bounce off those levels. now, the year-end rally that i thought we were going to have that most people thought we were going to have. if you look at this, these were the highs. how do we get back to those highs if the calculus has changed? if the fed is tightening, rates are moving higher. rates have backed off. we have divided congress now no progrowth no agenda. that boosts the markets back up. i would think that you have to fall somewhere in here for your-end it's basically the 200 day moving average yes, we can rally, but no new highs. >> i thought you meant the numbers. the nasdaq would have to recoup about 1,000 points from where we are now to hit the most recent highs. that would be a lot of headway in about a month with the

holidays >> right and for those bears, look at what has gotten beaten up. we saw that rotation from growth into value so when you look at these names, take, for instance, amazon when people say how much further can this go, as much destruction that has been done, amazon is still up 28% year to date. when you start to look at these levels, 1503 the year to date, you're looking back over here so you're talking about $1100 as a handle there for amazon to fall to collapse with that 28% cushion. so, yes, much damage has been done more can be done because if this is the air that's got to come out of the balloon, we have a lot more to go >> quickly, since you brought up amazon, we saw it trade higher earlier in the session and reverse. is that good price action or bad price action in your view? >> well, i think it's the same

it's indicative of what you're seeing with the s&p 500. you start to see buyers start to nibble they're short term holders they figure on a day like today, let me see if it bounces i'm going to sell it those are as the saying goes, we cans you want to see a real bottom being put in, and i don't think the bottom has been put in just yet. price action good on a day today. not on a longer term basis >> steve, thank you. coming up, while the markets have been down more than 3% over the past month, one stock is outperforming big. it is up 29% and not only that, it's up 104% year to date we will have our mystery chart next plus investors are asking for a refund in the retail sector today. are there any bargains amidst the selloff as the holiday season gets going in full swing? more "power lunch" is right ahead. hat does being able to trade

24/5 mean to you? well, it means i can trade after the market closes. it's true. so all... evening long. ooh, so close. yes, but also all... night through its entirety. come on, all... the time from sunset to sunrise. right. but you can trade... from, from... from darkness to light. ♪ you're not gonna say it are you? and then, more jobs robegan to appear.. what started with one job spread all around. because each job in energy creates many more in this town. a moment of joy. a source of inspiration. an act of kindness.

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investors have been flocking

to one retail stock. it's up 104% year to date. it's the mystery chart and the name canada goose. lower right now. but it is up more than 27% in just one month con tes have we are live with more >> you know who is gearing up for a gang busters holiday season it's canada goose. look at the line right now more than 35 minutes long as people are flocking to this store, a gaggle of customers, so to speak, waiting to pluck down $1,000 more or less on a warm coat. the company has just announced earnings last week of 34% over the previous quarter they raised 2019 guidance saying they expect annual revenue growth of po% versus the previously anticipated percent the majority of customers are asian. you think there's concern about the chinese economy slowing? nope

they say the coats are priced just right listen to this >> everyone has canada coats i want try and -- >> i saw the jacket. it's nice. i need a warm jacket for home. >> a lot of, like, movie >> the company is opening five stores in china and has no plans on in canada and the united states a a just say note here, on the weekends they say the line could stretch down the block maybe three and a half hours because in part inside every person, every customer group is paired with a brand manager, someone that could help them pick out

and try on coats >> they are obviously in dn de mand last year they had pipeline issues where some of the distribution partners didn't have what they needed. have they solved that problem for this year's holiday season >> they said we have plenty of product online we are looking forward to giving it to our retail partners and our shops. she thinks this whole idea is way overblown. she says look, for the brand being sold out might actually be a good thing she doesn't see that that's a problem. >> all right thank you very much. going to need it on thanksgiving i think because it is supposed to be 28 degrees >> for the high. >> let's stick with retail now which is joining the selloff today. tjx, lowe's all slumping

i will get my wife some nice lumber from christmas at lowe's. good to have you here. >> let's talk about this do you love it do you think that it's too late to buy into a stock that's gone up that much or do they still have their mojo? >> i actually love it. the fad is still there and the skarsty factor is still there. as long as you have that going it all keeps working will there be a day when there's another jacket i guess it will be it will be a while >> i understand the investing game or trading game that says when a company comes out they 40% higher but they don't raise their estimate enough or they have some issue that the stock

will get punished. do these deserve to be punished as badly as they are today for what could be called sort of minor nitpicks >> they released bad earnings they were down 20. they don't deserve it. the redayers are doing a pretty good job even somebody like target. people thought they were reinvesting too much or expense structure was too high isn't that what we want all of them to do is grow online? you grow online and you're doing things that's a problem throughout the group, right whether you're macy's or walmart or target you're having expenses go up because of the great online business you're doing i say all of the time to pmy clients, it may not be as long as it has been

they will be able to buy back stock and they are continuing to grow and they are getting good growth online. >> you're loving kohl's or you have been but today it is getting hammered >> yeah. >> my favorites are nordstrom, macy's and kohl's. >> all four of them are. i think they are doing a really good job >> does good consumer sentiment and stronger wallet mean that luxury brands are poised to benefit this holiday season? is it the owners out there are these luxury brands ones that stand to benefit? go they certainly were until today.

if the market crashes down around their ears there is a strong correlation and it's more so than across the board that's not my work the only problem i can find to look at right now is the stock market earnings are pretty darn good. everybody is working wages are rising more people having jobs. >> are they looking forward six months to a year they are expecting it when it comes to the economy is it right for retailers to start pricing that in as well? >> sure, if in fact we are going to see that it should be across the board. right now you would say first quarter and second quarter would probably be pretty good. it depends how far you want to look out tax law effects start to slow down and we'll start to see that in the business.

we'll see record refunds the consumer will spend that i think we'll see a strong first quarter and strong second quarter. i'm a little worried about the upper end as we figure out it is not deductible and we have to pay more in taxes. the rest should look good. >> can we get a close shot here with this wonderful tie and this very very elegant double breasted jacket? i will channel my red carpet interviewer. who are you wearing? >> i'm wearing brooks brothers they should be really proud. >> we have to leave it there markets right now moving towards their low. the dow off by 2.25% nasdaq down by almost 2% s&p a similar amount they are joining the downside party off by nearl2%y as well power lunch is back after this

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the dow less than is 1% from the correction level we are off by about 532 points it has been stable >> it has been >> we have been down for the better part of a couple of hours. >> we had an attempt by amazon as well as facebook to trade in

the green for some period of time >> facebook did. >> yes >>. closing bell starts right now. >> good afternoon and welcome to the closing bell i'm wilfred. >> and it looks like it has gone from bad to worse for the session. >> maybe you can bring steadiness in this final hour of trade. gym i didn't me-- it's 3:00 p.m >> exactly it is 3:45 he said let's get to the market action