the green for some period of time >> facebook did. >> yes >>. closing bell starts right now. >> good afternoon and welcome to the closing bell i'm wilfred. >> and it looks like it has gone from bad to worse for the session. >> maybe you can bring steadiness in this final hour of trade. gym i didn't me-- it's 3:00 p.m >> exactly it is 3:45 he said let's get to the market action stocks plunging.

the dow dropping nearly 600 points 596 at the low of the day. over 2%. nasdaq down. >> so energy is the biggest loser but technology continues to get slammed the flaz dak is on pace for the lowest close since april it is down 15% from the record high let's get to our reporters looking at those ravaged tech stocks we have more on the rough sessions and steve is analyzing those. >> what started as a selloff has driven to retail and energy. echoing concerns around a slow down in consumer spending and then there's a report from goldman sachs. it is 2019 forecast.

they are expecting a single digit return for the s & p 500 a shift to higher quality companies. for the first time analysts expect cash to become more appealing to investors it sort of lends support that we have already seen play out take a look at how it has compared in comparison to the s & p 500. with this on the rise it is worth noting that earnings estimates have come down analysts were expecting fourth quarter earnings to jump 20% it has fallen to 17.3% from 8% back to today's selloff. financials have joined in just as rates dip lower back above 23, wolf. >> i guess it's not just the u.s. today i think every single major equity down today. >> that's a very good point. the global markets did selloff

we started the tape lower. tomorrow we are looking to politics the eu is expected to respond to italy's draft budget later this week we have the index out of europe. it is an kplik data point they watch very closely >> they do thank you for that fang stocks losing hundreds of billions of dollars from their recent highs we have more >> so as we talk about the market so far we tried to update this as in realtime as possible. the faang have been arguing the upside drivers right now since each stocks representative high they have lost billions of dollars of market cap

amazon $260 billion to the downside apple $263 billion since record high 156 for google arnt company alphabet and netflix still lost about $64 billion since highs back on june 21st. as of a few moments ago it brings the total market cap lost to around $995 billion we'll call it roughly 1 trillion in lost market capment f it is just about the size of what apple was worth towards the peak of the market cap it is certainly to keep an eye on back over to you guys. >> it looks like in terms of the biggest percentage losers it is actually the chip stocks 0% or more off their highs

>> it is one of the leading indicators they have moverd lower. as we talked about stocks they have been plong the hardest hit during this downturn the chip stocks a big one out there for many traders if they can turn around perhaps there's hope for the overall market t >> thank you >> sure. >> we are seeing session lows. the dow is down 607 points here we go into the close. let's take a look. nasdaq plunges deeper. we have more on what's driving the declines lower >> it is pretty much tech. it hasn't closed since april 3rd. today's decline is flat for the

year it looks like it was going to be positive year to date fractionally and well into correction territory a lot of that as you look at it is lead by big cap tech particularly when you look at how far they have fallen from their highs. it is faang momentum names it is not just apple and amazon but also some of the others are down 24% from highs. the chip sector which fell first, it is still above its march lows but it has been really that sentiment that has really permeated throughout technology earlier today interestingly chips were the one sector that moved up it really demonstrates the skepticism that remains about buying into this beaten down sector it was higher this morning you have just seen a fade of that rally as we have gone further into the afternoon

chip names are leading at this hour both on very strong volume reversing from an 18 month low after a tweet saying that it had seen it at an attract ifr evaluation today and started to buy. still, most of the new lows today not moving in fact that one is down about 61% from its 52 week high. back to you. >> okay. thank you very much for that a new poll shows growing concern about a recession. the latest found the probability of a recession is higher to a median 35% up from 30% last month. cnbc joins us now. why it doesn't necessarily mean a recession was on the horizon >> it is one of the darkest days

in stock market history. there is another lesson, how big market downdrafts may not signal recessions this shows it wouldn't be for another three years that the economy would eventer recession. >> the stock market predicted nine of the last recessions. they put the chance of recession around 19% that's higher than it has been but about average for the series right now forecasts call for slowing growth most fed officials say the economy coming down to around trend growth of 2% and unemployment rate continuing to fall maybe even to 3%. there's one problem. more folks do see the economy

tied we sent this in 2013 you can see 38% said when the dow hits the -- 46% say it shows the firms -- that companies and the wealthy are doing better the thing about the market in 2016 i went back to see if he was right. turns out he was ever so slightly off there have been 13 bare markets. they have predicted seven recessions in 12 months. >> and just quickly, the economic data itself in the last month or two months as the markets turn down is not pointed anymore. >> no. i'll tell you it pointed us to a third quarter you know dip 3.6

or so. the current cnbc update i put on the 2008 we'll do that but we are better than half a point. >> thank you very much for that. markets down i -- kaeling roars quote i'm reading some of the weirdest stuff we have jason here good afternoon to you.

>> sit not in sight. he was right on about nine out of five. we have had three or four recessions since then. it is certainly no certainty that even a bare market predicts a recession. the market is clearly worried about overtightening of the fed. i expect chairman powell to make a speech or indicate in the next fomc meeting that the fed is going to substantially slow down its rate of rate hikesin 2019. >> do you agree? you really liked stocks.

>> yeah. we don't think a recession is likely in the next 12 months at all. i think it is actually lower than normal. it is kind of getting back to you for a long-term normal average. i think another thing between the stock market and economy is the annual correlation is close to zero. you can have years where growth is really good and vice versa. we look forward. top line in growth looks good. sales for christmas looks like they will be up 5% maybe earnings won't be quite as good it is hard to kind of look at how the market is performing and telling us it is too much over the next 12 months >> do you buy or sell bonds?

>> it depends what you're talking about. we think they will be trading in a range of where they have been recently >> we are kind of at the lower end of the range at this point in time we are getting a littletight.

>> we do see a slow down you can see the kplodcommodity prices it is the price that the fed uses to judge inflation is going to drop below the 2% level in the next announcement at the end of the this month. it might drop as low as1.8.

>> thanks for joining us out of this market. >> joining our closing bell exchange for the day let's talk about all of this. the founder and ceo. keith is here. senior vice president and rick joining us from the cme group in chicago. we have to pause and take a look at the price of oil. it is down 7% right now or $4 breaking below $53 a barrel. what is that telling you >> we start with trade tensions. it will have an impact it will have downstream effects throughout the european union. with that the market is

signaling i have a slow down in global growth. american producers are purmping as much as they can. you still pump at $55 a barrel and make money we have a lot of oil on the market and a slow down at the same time. the market is reading that and we have a massive global slowdown going on. we have both very oversold at this point in time i would expect to trade back up to around the mid-60 level at least in the short term. but we need to catch a bid throughout this market where we are getting washed out in several areas

>> do you think that the market has been remarkably stable >> remarkably stable at the end of the day consider this it looks to be the sixth session there a row that the ten year yield is closing with a higher price. throughout the six sessions and the furthest back was the day we made the high yield close. we are only down about 20 basis points i'm not saying 20 basis points isn't a lot. in the context of how much stocks move i'm impressed by that take it a step ffarther. we have negative interest rates up to the seven year maturity. should any of these economists actually hit a pitch thrown at them and there is a recession?

truly they should be high fiving our fed because they will have room to go to other way and ease back what is europe going to do what is japan going to do? to answer a question look at the relationships of the economies and the stock market we are basically duown a little bit for the year our equity markets versus europe, japan and china. we have come down but so have they it is taking a toll. i understand that. all things considered it is remarkable that we are above 3%. >> so given all of that as a portfolio manager are you fearful, taking the opportunity to buy tell us about some of the news we are making. >> first of all i agree that interest rates are likely in a range right now. i think concerns that the interest rate levels are going

to raise, i saw a couple of weeks ago they are going to four i just don't think they are reasonable i agree the fed has been raising rates to have room to go back the other way if there is a recession. i wouldn't be selling fixed income at thispoint. some soft chip stocks have proven lastly this might be the moment there is some sort of rotation occurring. we are starting to see it be more attractive than momentum names. when they are not rising they can be ugly. i think people continue to flee and i think you're starting to see that happen. >> keith, the biggest single

factor is it trade or one of the others that we talked about? >> if we get clarity they were trading this last weekend as well it has always been a problem if we get clarity and we have to get a bid there. they have been here. last thing i would point out is financials need to catch a bid here if we look it is having a real impact on the dow. financials need to come back as well >> we'll leave it there. thank you very much. >> it will be a check of where we stand 40 minutes until the closing bell we are near session lows the dow has come off of the minus 600 number it is now-556 points it looked a lot worse earlier

today. it is still a broad and painful selloff for investors today. all sectors are lower. the hardest hit right now is energy crude oil is down 7% >> let's continue this market discussion joining us to talk more is chief economic adviser good afternoon to you. thank you for joining us >> thank you >> you have been one of the more bullish ones over the last five months or so in the next year or two. are you still bullish about u.s. growth >> i am. what we are seeing is not about growth in the u.s. it's about a transition. it is a long overdue condition to a more uncertain economically

kwidty regime. the reason it is so bumpy is not because u.s. growth is a problem but the rest of the world is lagging in terms of progrowth policies >> if it's about the rest of the world why now? it is no secret that the rest of the world was slowing all yearlong >> you know, the image i always have when you see these violent selloffs is the amount of sand you keep putting new sand on top but at some point the shape clan changes completely we have had a whole series of issues that have focused concern on the rest of the world >> if it is liquidity central banks are a big factor in the concern for markets. could they clang their direction

doond so quickly enough to that equities can rally enough. >>. >> i'm not so sure you know, from the beginning of the year three is not enough for this year. we may end up with four. it is very hard for if fed to change track at this point it has signalled very consistently it has stopped trying to calm markets down >> it's a political angle. could the central banks change signals? are they likely to i'm not so sure. >> inflation, jeremy said hem t expects inflation to slow. wouldn't it give them a little

bit of cover >> remember, they look through oil prices people have forgotten which number we got a few weeks ago. it will be interesting to see what the next looks like it wouldn't surprise me if we stay above 3% on wage growth it is not clear that inflation is not very near or at the target so it's not clear to me that when they look at the dual objectives, when they look at spilled back evidence that they may think we don't want to change signals just yet. >> in terms of this question of liquidity how much are they having on this reduction liquidity? might any of them change direction? >> the etb is still on course to stop the program at the end of the year that's going to have an impact you mentioned earlier in the show what's been happening to italian debt people are starting to realize

it matters when a central bank with an unlimited balance sheet decides not to buy your debt i think you're seeing an effect of what's happening in the u.s. which is qt tightening plus the rate hikes plus what's happening in europe. >> so yes, it's all coming together we should not get too depressed about this we needed that transition. we have come from a very artificial period where everything was going up. we need to go back to a more normal period. long term this is good for the health of the market short term it is a journey >> i get your point that, you know, at some point we had to return to normal and it was going to be painful and a place we hadn't been before.

maybe this is what a return to normal looks like but if the fed over does it it can drag us into recession. history has shown that it could become a self-fulfilling prophesy maybe it was more problematic. >> you're absolutely right we are much more vulnerable to either a policy mistake or and maybe and a market accident. we are more as a ruler nbl to both of these things it would have been better to start the normalization earlier but it didn't. we are more vulnerable the strength overall and also relative to the others it's not just that global growth as a whole is slowing down

despite u.s. strength. it is becoming more divergent. so look at the strength of the u.s. economy and hope that other countries get their act together >> so let's talk about that a little bit more. where is this? is it a europe issue and what is the chance you're worried they could drag u.s. growth down 50/50 next year or lower >> so first it's china and europe >> of course a trade uncertainty is ahead wind for them

italy, brexit, germany, what's going on with hungry has diverted attention completely from protectivety. they need to sort out the political issues so they can focus on the economic issues >> back to the u.s. for a moment you said it comes down to the u.s.economy. how do you read this kind of destruction we have seen there semi conductor stocks which are often economic well weathers aren't they all economic signals? >> first housing is the most cyclical along with automobiles. the sectors aren't going to benefit. for me it's no surprise that it

is doing badly second there was overinvestment. there was way too much money that went to tech. what we are seeing is a normalization of thatsector it is a concern and i share your concern is that we may end up having things come together and tip us over. i don't think it's likely unless we have a policy mistake >> thank you very much for

joining us. we saw a 5.5% drop trade is getting a lot of attention ahead of that g20 meeting flexion week they are down about 1 to 3%. stock is moving higher even though medical device maker is feeling the effects of china tariffs. it is telling the wall street journal they have put pressure

on stocks. we'll get another feel after the bell tomorrow it is one of the big home builders. it is down 11% so far this year. >> thank you let's send it uptown now to the nasdaq >> they had both been positive both up about 1% in the morning. rallies faded as we come into the afternoon. one of the things is whether some of the those stocks could move higher. earlier we saw facebook get relative strength after hitting an 18 month low. it is back in the green here alphabet back in the green as well both of those stocks very very

weak >> it's not just tech here we talked about some of the consumer names ross's earnings are relatively good it is not as robust as some would have liked it is a big loser here today along with a number of other retail names apple is the biggest drag. it is the nasdaq and s and p's decline so far this month. back to you. >> thank you for that. time far cnbc update. >> thank you very much here is what's happening days after hosing tting the meeting police officers and security guards broke windows, tore pictures from the walls. the protests arose over a pay dispute. two weeks after the november 6th election florida's election

results are now final, certified. after tight margins prompted recounts rick scott has been to the u.s. senate. democrat freed is the state agriculture commission arlington, texas hopes to make a grows impact by opening the largest gaming venue in the united states. 200,000 kwar feet that features gaming stations in an 85 foot led video wall the rams beat the chiefs 54-51. the highest scores game in monday night football history. the biggest loser may have been the casinos sports books set the total points scored at more or less than 64 everyone who bet the over and that was roughly 70% of gamblers

got paid that's the cnbc update at this hour back to you folks. >> with plenty of room as well to spare >> yes >> thank you very much >> thank you, sir. retail stocks getting hammered after reporting various earnings coming out this morning. let's bring in courtney reagan >> it has been quite a busy day. the retail selloff is about a couple of things maybe more cutely it is fear that target shares are down more than 10% after coming up short on earnings. comp sells were up slightly. target's margins did fall because there's pressure from the cost of fulfilling all of those online orders and also from upping the holiday inventory. lowe's also disappointed

analysts like that they are working on noncorp. businesses still, shares down 5%. like low revenue and sales beat for kho-ohl's. i asked if their view had changed. cornell said we see no change in the consumer environment he knowledged that economic cycles cannot last forever and he knows some think it is coming to an end. investors are worried the best is behind us and that this retail turn around that started last holiday season could be ending be careful let's watch out for gap shares

back over to you >> all right we will all be here for that thank you. >> in the next hour do weaker than expected earnings spell going into the all important holiday season david is here as well, managing director you heard them sum marrize saying no change in the consumer spending which he said was the best he has ever seen. what's with the reactions and the stocks today >> i bought some this morning. i just think that the reactions, it's a skiddish market i think the retailers are figuring out how to compete in this new world i think they are doing it better and better target at a 5 plus% comp

we are going to see issues for some period of time because of selling online is not the same margin as in stores. they are getting better and better i remember a year ago kohl's said they were down 10%. if you bought then you had a great run. evaluations are a little different. i think it could end up being a buying moment right here >> is it a day to buy target >> yeah. i agree. thargt, i mean traffic is probably the most important metric when you're looking at retailers. the guide ans is for a 5% comp it will be traffic driven as well some of the initiatives that are driving that very strong traffic

metric are still in their relative infancy including some of the expanded fulfillment options. >> ton special 2i retail side i think courtney said well, it has been hit or miss out there urban looked pretty good out there today.

>> they are really rising to the top. >> the difference in performance between consumer staples not actually that large year to date but it has really fallen out in the last sort of three months or so is that a buying opportunity for that sub sector of the consumer space? >> i think it has been a bit of a reaction i know the market is really jittery right now for a few different reasons. barring some kind of a further plunge in the stock market consumers look at their 401ks and that sort of thing the underpinnings are very

mutual i think it's true. i think they are in good shape right now. >> i think the plunge over the past week or so, yes, i think that's overdone. >> all right you heard it again here. retail stocks not so much in great shape. thank you for being here >> thank you >> i want to point out l brands is down 17%. talk about a miss there. cutting the dividend and announcing a new ceo has not been able to find any turn around unlike at target which is still at 5%. >> down 11%. >> yes >> do i get a thank you for anything >> thank you for being you >> thank you for being back and being here i missed you let's have a look at the market 20 minutes left of trade it is looking good we are down

509 points on the dow. if we check in on the nasdaq and s&p you can see about 1.5% and the russell as well. the dow transports has been hit hard phillip has more on what's moving that particular index it is not all transports being hit at the sacme time. they typically move higher heading into the end of the season today they are a little bit under pressure if you look at these stocks they have held up pretty well here is the reason why jet fuel continues to be lower as it drops it in price it helps

the bottom line for the airlines that's the reason why the airlines for the most part have been able to with stand a lot of selloff we have seen they are feeling a greater hit it's not the untrend you have with the airlines. you're looking down from 2.2% up to 4.3%. like the rest of the market feeling pressure today back to you. >> okay. great stuff. thank you very much for that sharesov shares of boeing trading lower today. that is 0.7% it helped to rally during the day. the company cancelled a conference call to discuss issues with the max model. it is in danger of closing for a

ninth straight session joining us now to discuss if boeing is still worth betting on are scott and along with ken herbert. a very good afternoon to you both if i start with you you think it could be a turning point this long losing streak might be about to turn? >> i believe so. i do a lot of travel arcound thi country. let me tell you something, around the world we need more airports because we need more gates which means we need for airplanes. when you look at the backlog that boeing has it is going out and we are coming up to the 2019 power show i think you can expect a lot of orders and i expect orders will top the 2017 show.

i am bullish on the stock. i believe it could get to $400 in the next year >> okay. why do you disagree? >> well, i would agree that the near term corrections a little overdone on some of the issues but i'm taking a more cautious view i look at immerging market growth there seems to be a little bit there. it seems to have been much more than we all expected a few months ago i think we risk. the backlog is there but we risk oversupply it is as we talk about lower fuel which takes some of the premium away from the aircraft >> what about the trade disputes do you think it is weighing on boeing and something it can capitalize on? a lot of people talk about that. is it easy to substitute between the two for china? >> no. it's not easy in the near term because it's not as if airbus

has available on the side. keep in mind one out of every three today which is where boeing generates about 40 to 45% are going into china it's not going in. they are looking at some of the other programs longer term if they wanted to tilt the balance. it's difficult for them to do much in terms of swapping near term >> i think there are a lot of headwinds right now. there are headwinds right now. the u.s. dollar is strong. we have the tariff issues with china. we have trade issues around the world. i think those are going to begin to dissipate and turn into tail winds. i think that oil prices are

going to go higher i think that we are going to solve the trade issues with china. i think that the fed is finally going to say, you know what? we have gone too far around the world we will see interest rates rise a little bit. it will weaken the u.s. dollar which will help a lot with u.s. trade and companies who are going to purchase boeings. >> why is it confident we are going to save that with dplien two sides appear pretty far apart. >> they appear pretty far apart but both know they have to have something done and i think they will get something done. it is a matter of who is willing to give a little bit more. i think do it in such a way that neater president trump or the chinese don't lose face. they both want to come out of this looking like winners. does it happen i'm not sure

does it happen by the end of the year most likely. i think the more we don't hear about what's going on in terms of negotiations probably more advanced they are into those negotiations it is on track for the worst year since the inception in 2012 facebook has been bouncing in and out of the red all day it is up about .6% this is following a decline of

5.7% yesterday on more negative headlines. it is speculation about whether or not advertisers will start to leave facebook. it is recovering some of those declines from yesterday. there has been peculation but i would say what's keeping that stock is probably just some buying off that dip. back over to you guys. >> thank you very much certainly weighs on the tech sector which is not doing as badly as it was yesterday but certainly still offering i want to bring in apple as well right near bottom of the dow it is down as much as 5%. we have that coming up for you

it is trading below that this is what has moved it below that level today this is reaction to the wall street journal they are saying it is trading 13.9 times it is in terms of evaluations. we only moved back to the middle of the range >> it had a tremendous run yut thisyear

it must be a bad sign for growth of iphones >> certainly with the biggest stock in the world falling every day. >> oil of course is plunging let's get there for more on what's driving that drop >> good afternoon. >> after the downside run there was a pause. it was a breather. the market was looking for a catalyst to take it lower. it wasn't necessarily sure it would see it this certainly did the trick $55 a barrel was the support level. once the market dropped about 500 points early on it triggered the oil selling. remember, the relationship between oil and stocks is always about demand right now we know we have a lot of supply. we have the u.s. pumping close

to 12 million barrels a day. if demand weakens in this environment we start to see a real problem again because the stockpiles start to build up today's session low was 52 and change the session high was 57 and change quite a range for crude oil. it gives you a sense of how volatile it is could it be the next stop? some saying we will go lower before we go higher. >> wow a big drop in oil today. thank you very much for the color and commentary on that let's bring in paul here today's drop is big. >> it is big it is big. what we are seeing here is the complete collapse here >> is it global growth what's the big driver? >> the fact that a month ago we thought we were going to lose a million barrels a day and the outlook for demand was that much

better if we lost ie lan it was more extreme. in the past month we have seen no additional sanctions from an oil pointover view this story which today was part of the story in so far as donald trump came out and backed the crown prince which tends to take it out of the equation as well you're saying regardless of how damming it is. president trump doesn't want to change it. >> i think basically 20, $25 was iran that's the big element the second thing is the saudi thing. it is notable oil has

accelerated with that. >> isn't the idea that trump's comments could lead them not to cut production because he doesn't want them to cut protection >> i think it's more of the regime change. it will be very disruptive potentially. i'm surprised the market doesn't think it will cut. i think they stated they will. i think it is contingent and there is still risk there. having said they they have said they are on board or being supportive so i think we'll get cut >> one of the things that i think a lot of people say of the big oil majors is they have strong balance sheets. on that point exxon with relatively strong balance sheet, you have looked to whether they could swoop in for ge. >> i think 15 years ago i was covering exxon and was duking it

out with ge. you know the story of what has happened to ge it struck me that it would actually fit with exxon if they wanted to do a big deal. i think it's a very good idea. >> to the viewer that worked >> yeah. but we threw it out there this morning. i think there's a couple of positives. firstly the spot prices come down a ton we have seen a move like this and we are in a very flat curve. secondly it means we could get activism and get that. we are throwing out ideas on who could buy who. could we get this on the front in oil which is is frankly what we need. we need the companies to raise their returns. >> what's the highest conviction that you're throwing out there

>> i think exxon should buy something and i can't start rumors i'll be careful what i say right here it would make a lot of sense you haven't optimized that >> all of them sustainable >> yeah. you can buy -- if you're attracted to 4% for exxon those are very safe with balance sheets you mentioned >> thank ryou very much. >> not a single stock is higher right now. we have a news alert on walgreens. >> that's right. reporting that walgreens and humana are in talks to potentially take stakes in one another but certainly that the talks are wide ranging and would

likely include talking about extending their partnerships, walgreens and humana launching a couple of new childrlinics thisl humana said this partnership does not mean that it won't continue its partnership with wall pla walmart where it established a partnership signing people up and getting seniors to go to the clinics in walmarts as well. it is part of the broad effort to really provide more services to keep seniors out of the hospital, treat them at home and find new ways to keep them healthy and keep them engaged in their health walgreens still low on the day you can see a lot of these insurers and clinics want to partner up as cvs and aetna are

poise today bring that model to the floor. >> thank you very much for that. we have about three minutes left to trade. >> and it felt heavy look what happened boom, right out of the gate. it hasn't been able to recover we traded down to 2634ish. so i still think my sense is that it feels heavy. it may not test it today i wouldn't be surprised that there's another flush tomorrow there needs to be that flush in order to get people that wake. >> it feels to me the last two days are pretty serious. you haven't had enough volume. >> we haven't had enough but you

haven't seen the level really build. you need to see the level of g angst build. you don't want to say panic but it has to be a real push they will make sure buyers are going to be there. >> difference between yesterday and today. nasdaq is not the laggard. is that something positive to hang onto? >> the nasdaq has gotten so beaten up. it is a little bit of a break it is okay. overall it feels heavy evaluations had gotten so elevated based on zero interest rates. now we are trying to normalize you can expect it to keep going up >> tomorrow another down day >> i think it will open lower. >> i'll leave it there with you. let's takea look it is down 534 points. the low is over 600. here are all t30 stocks for you.

apple down 5%. microsoft, disney, all at the index. the tech names are in that group. if we look at the s&p sectors you'll see it as energy that suffers most of all this is remarkably stable. it is for most of this week and it is there at the moment. >> selloff started over seas with tech shares under performing the retail story really resurrected the story around the state of the consumer. will it continue we have foot locker and gap after the bell

>> thank you for that. there goes the bell. fl nasdaq down 532 points that does it for the first half of closing bell. back to you welcome to the closing bell. let's take a look at how we finished up the day on wall street the dow closing lower, more than 2.2% down 553 points there on the close. the s and p 500 down 1.8%. all sectors did close lower.

all 30 closed lower as well. nasdaq down 1.7% some of the hardest hit names there technology continuing the recent slide if you're keeping score at home basically all of the gains for the markets and major averages have been lost nasdaq is now flat for the year. s&p down more than a percent all of the recent highs nasdaq down 15% we are here on the floor of the new york stock exclang let's kick it off with you >> over 2% decline what's interesting about today is it was a broad based decline

for if montreal estate fairing -- earnings tonight still a big factor and focus here on the floor. the timing, s & p 500 has had years. this that we are seeing could certainly break that straek. back to you. >> thank you very much for that. let's head uptown at the nasdaq. >> we had some strengths today it was. >> it really could not really

contradict apple having lost about $250 billion plus of market cap after a trillion dollars company. microsoft and cisco taking the nasdaq down below the october lows >> the average is 6630 one of the interesting things technicians are watching strong video as they bounced off of those new lows to buck the trend and finish higher on the day some guys say maybe that means we are closer to a process

>> facebook, not netflix netflix is lower >> mike is here digesting another bad dayme you said it's still not a big thing. >> if you're waiting on that it is very haphazard you got closer today. >> for the most part it's been this kind of determined selling that hasn't necessarily seemed all that emotional if we need that it is probably not there yet. if you thought you were going to play this week not giving you

green light. oil down another 6%. that was unwelcomed because it seems like it is disorderly selloff. what's happening with expectations for retail. so at some point as we retest the lows they are probably going to get to a ploemoment when we balance just because >> the party is over that's a worrying line >> one party is over but there's a new game which is let's find the bottom what i meant by that is this steady the market kept grinding ahead. now we have seen the end to that now we have to see where it is that we base

so as we have discussed, you flow, there are a lot of stocks that have gone down, most big names are done 20% or more the market is selling for under 15.5 times next year's earnings. the earnings estimates are too low. now there's that it is too high. if in fact we begin to see clarity about earnings we can feel more comfortable about buying stocks if there's a trade deal >> so what's your level of pessimism? >> i think it is a retest to the low. it is reminiscent to what happened in 2015/2016. it was lead by energy prices coming down. what you haven't had is a spike up in high yield spreads

so the situation is reasonably good we are not seeing a recession in the near term. i think there's a big difference in the slow down from high growth rates and an inflection point. it looks like that inflection point is quite a ways away >> could we be about to see it gap up >> i think what happened wolf in the last 2015/2016 is everybody understood it drove high yield spreads. you have seen some spread widening outside of energy you're not seeing the kind of default that would press that kind of spread move >> i'm curious what you think about that we have heard it like five times today. we are not seeing a recession. >> yes >> this is ugly price action yes growth might be slowing from 3 or 4%. there's no recession there site

and forever people still like stocks >> no recession in the u.s. incite in all of the kind of observable leading indicators besides the stock market if we did go back to late 2015/2016 we also did not have a u.s. recession we had another growth scare and slow down. the stock market was chopping lower so it was a flenear miss s not necessarily pleasant for stocks i don't know that we are there either but it is clear multiple strands are happening. you have the oil crash happening over here. credits definitely softening up. yields about 7.2%. if it doesn't start drawing people in after we have this little bit of retail outflows it will tell you risk appetites have changed there is a difference between gliding down to 10% across the board to dropping from 20% year

over year down to 5% in the first quarter when as many losers as winners. >> it's a different scenario >> let's go po to the bond market i guess the main point would be fairly stable at about 3.05% >> interesting the two-year yield went up. >> we did see of course yields jump up a little bit this morning as well. that's a play. what do you think that the pressu treasury market is saying here >> in terms of longer term yields, that will be a tough one to break up. it's telling you it is moderating the u.s. economic outlook a little bit it is dpoun and that's only the

market's best guess today. it is really not all that accurate beyond three or four months, something like that. the story could change it is showing you that finally the risk aversion has worked but really in a very orderly way >> how much has to do with what the fed does or does not do? >> well, i would say it doesn't have a huge impact because we have factored in the rate increases that we would expect for next year and at 3.05 within an economy that seems to be slowing down, no one is going to be particularly hawkish. i understand that the fed has their expectations about inflation and targets but if the economy isn't growing very rapidly and you have pressures across the gloen it is unlikely there will be more rate hikes at all as have been suggested

so right now it's more about tariffs and earnings growth that we are thinking about than really about interest rates. i'm quite comfortable where we are right now. it is not where a few weeks ago people were thinking that we would be at the beginning of -- or when december rolled around >> another jump in the dollar toz. is that a concern for equities >> i think when you look at dollars and rates and jumping on the feds, a dollar is doing a lot of feds work for him it is helping the real challenges they wanted to get off zero. i think the markets are looking for a pause and the markets might test them to get that. >> after december. >> yeah. december she pretty much in. it is as early as march if everybody is looking if that >> yeah.

>> and i think the answer to your original question is it becomes more of a problem. it increases the risk they watch the yield curve to kind of stabilize that range over the last four to six weeks >> i still think a lot can change after december the feds talking two or three next year >> it could be spread across the year the feds seem to think it has enough flexion blt in the standing forecast. the market doesn't like that >> yeah. >> and if we want to go back to the 2015/2016 experience, you know, that was when he was trying to get the first rate hike in december 15th. got it in and no more for a year >> i think the president's comments complicates all of this >> yeah. >> it will look like he is listening to the president

>> that's not what he intended when he made the comments. we have an earnings look it is on foot locker hi >> it is on foot locker. for the third quarter results turning in earnings of 95 cents. a 3 cent beat there. 1.86 billion the street had been looking for 1.85 billion better than the street's estimates at 1.9%. shares up sharply as you can see here a quote from the ceo and press release says we believe we are well positioned in the all important holiday selling season and fourth quarter overall even stronger is not really -- we are not sure what he is relating to but even stronger than this strong third quarter is what he is referring to back over to you >> all right a pocket of strength there >> thank you

foot locker soaring. nike is gaining after hours as well >> i think younaturally would have had people after this morning's run of reports from retailers and last night leaning in the direction of bracing for something worse. the comments about the guidance made me tell you that the athletic foot ware is an area that is not seeing slow down >> and would you want to buyfully of those? >> the only retailer we own is costco i think it is very positive for the retail sector generally. if footlocker, which are wage pressures and unit costs and straight costs can say they are going to show stronger earnings. >> it's not just about the athletic shoe business

it says something pass tifr about retail that's what the market is worried about, whether margins will be under pressure, whether the costs that are coming through ton labor side will overwhelm the numbers on the refr flew side i take it as a plus. i think it would be helpful to the sector tomorrow. >> and on top of that athletic sneaker sales are doing well they have an up trend with nike and under armour right now it bucked the down trend close to higher today. housing rose in october. interesting to see that in the stocks though. >> yes that is when you see the overall action today the beaten down blasted areas did in some cases find a bid it includes the home builders too. >> and facebook. >> exactly it is stretched to the downside. >> it shows you when question got the poor home builder number

earlier this week, that seemed like a moment when people realized treasury yields coming down it definitely helps even if we don't clahange the whole pictur. >> we are at the white house with details >> that's right. the president was getting on board marine one in order to depart to florida for the thanksgiving holiday he stopped to talk to reporters. let me bring you a couple of segments of what he had to say the president was asked about today's market selloff.

>> the president refuse to go break despite the reported assessment that mbs, the crown prince was the man that ordered that murder. the president saying earlier today he doesn't know that is in f fact the case. he added to that and laid out the economic case for not breaking with saudi arabia >> we are not going to give up hundreds of billions of dollars and let russia and kind that and everybody else have them it is america first. saudi arabia, if we broke with them i think your oil prices will go through the roof i kept them down they helped me keep them down. right now we have low oil prices i think that it is a very simple

equation for me. i am about make america great again. i am about america first >> the president explaining what he the dealing with this through. the president says he doesn't want to change the relationship on either of those twofronts people blame the trade war >> we'll have to see i mean i asked him that question on the white house driveway this morning. i asked if the president sees any responsibility in terms of the market slide and he doesn't want to go there he said today he doesn't think there's a recession any where ton horizon.

he said it means it will slow downgoing into the latter half of the year. so this is not one that is ready right now to admit it has a problem in terms of the economy. they are focused on getting a deal leer. i think a lot of folks believe it will go a long way to taking care of some of these short term markets. >> with this latest discussion point on the murder and would it influence the discussion if they could get away with it >> sure. i mean that's one of the questions here is the president issuing to any country that wants to murder journalists as long as it -- it will be the criticism here one of the things i'll be watching for is it is said to be going to a general teen flrgenta

what will that put on a meeting or will the president happily shake his hand so many more almosts of diplomacy at stake >> be careful who else is in the room >> thank you very much >> you bet gap earnings are out courtney has those numbers >>. >> rev flews stronger than expected at 4.09 billion the street had been looking for 4 billion even it was over the high end of the earnings forecast for the full year it is 255 to 260 the streets estimate at 256. the comp sales were unchanged

flat within the numbers old navy still strong up 4% the gap brand, that key gap down 7% on the comps. they say we are clearly not sats -- satisfied. we are exited committed to ensut delivers value to shareholders shares were lower and they are higher by 2.5% >> thanks very much for that >> a little bit of retail reprieve >> yeah. gap is a very cheap stock. high dividend yield and a lot of free cash flow but no growth >> except for at old navy. >> but there's always one division >> yeah. >> i think the stock has been really discounted enough right now that it's not going to be a surprise if it isn't wonderful across the board >> old navy has baby pa jjamas.

>> we'll leave it there. thank you very much. now stocks plunging of course today and our next guest says there are five unresolve risks that is straight ahead is the fed starting to rethink rate hike plans for next year we'll ask him later on the closing bell

eric is here >> reporting earnings and over the top and bottom line and guidance going forward better than analysts were expecting 9% and stocks down by more than 20% back to you. >> thank you very much. thedown plunged in today's

session. it includes apple demand slowing and facebook management. software stock drops the the full list is there take a look at cnbc.com. >> the list appears to be growing by the day scott wren joins us with market worries, the fed, oil china and technology a lot of overlap there does it make the hurdle higher to make any sort of bounce the fact that the list grows by the day? >> i think you could narrow it down to three >> our answer is no to all

three. >> not that there are zero probabilities but we believe they low probabilities our outlook is for a good kpl economic growth, not great if that's the outlook and we don't think any of those key things are going to come to fruition we want our clients stepping in here particularly now that we are down towards this 2580 to 2630 technical support zone which we think is pretty strong. >> i guess the question is not only whether those achnswers are all no but whether the market can believe it any time soon we go through this list of things that seem to be weighs on psychology it grows they reach for things to worry about. i wonder what it is in terms of the market position here and whether in fact we have had people get to that point of thinking things are so bad that relief is on the way

>> i think that that's what is really driving this for the three plamain issues that i tal about. i don't think there's any big news or surprise that when you have a thousand dollars plus smart phones the demand goes down there's a price point for everything i think late in the cycle here the fed margin, what will happen with global growth, trade plays into that. brexit plays into that that is part of the underlying situation there. you could argue that there are a lot of risks out there any one of those could push the market a little bit lower. i think the fund mamentals are positive we want to -- we want to lean towards a continuation of this expansion, consumer discretion flairs, we do not want our clients hiding right now >> so scott, you became more famous than you already are when

the president tweeted a comment. you said i think we'll be back at our 282,900 target range quoting scott wren you're saying now it's not all about the fed. did you clang your mind? >> no. there are two events that will determine now. i'm not a six week guy what is going to determine what happens to the s and p 500 and all of the other major indexes one is if she and trump have any whether i ha kind of anything positive it will help the market also when we see the fed two-day meeting on the 18th and 19th we don't kpapt it to change much. if you have any hint from j. powell, either the statement or press conference afterwards in our opinion you'll be rallying

back into that 2,800 to 2,900 zone where we have had our long time and our year-end target there. we still feel good about that. >> thanks for joining us let's take a look at how we finished the day on wall street. the s&p down 1.8%. nasdaq 1.7 the russell down 1.8%. more still to come here on the closing bell first it is time for a c flrks bc news update with sue. >> hello everyone. here is what's happening at this hour it could be unsafe to eat any row main lettuce the cdc sending a broad alert in response to an outbreak of illnesses. 32 people in 11 states are reportedly sick. the cdc warning not to consume row plain lettuce in any form. planning on going to the

macy's thanksgiving day parade temperatures will be around the cold es. new york city kppexpected to ho in the mid-20s speaking of thanksgiving, two lucky turkeys will not be served on the dinner table this thursday, peas and his friend carrot receiver add presidential pardon at the white house earlier today. >> i will be issuing both peas and carrots a presidential pardon >> you're up to date back downtown to you >> those are good flames, peas and carrots. >> yes >> you got it. >> it has ban volatile two months in the market

how does i actually compare to other periods in recent history? mike is here with some answers perfect question for you >> yes one question is how much people are willing to pay up for stocks that promised low volatility this is actually what tracks the 100 least volatile stocks. to people really want to crowd into quality stocks like consumer staples what is interesting to me here is you see this huge run people have had right here. it is buying the stable ones.

once we had certainty about a little bit of recovery, that broke. one it could get a lot more extreme if the market stayed dicey. there is a price to pay. >> even in the first up trend there of the dividend paying stocks, the net effect on the broader markets is still not attractive >> the market did a round trip for a while. it did not make great headway. it was these stocks driving the overall index higher >> okay. a beautiful drawing there. coming up we'll discuss

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with anyone else >> steve joins us with how this and recent market movers could effect the feds time line. it makes it a little more complicated doesn't it >> it sure does. the kre cent comments might seem bephone line but they come with another least some questioning whether they have a hike even in december the trouble is the more if president says the more he will appear knuckling under political pressure if it doesn't hike. here are the probabilities sit the odds on bet. it has been pushed into the future we can't even get to a 50% probability for a second hike in october which is 31% patrick harker said i need to

watch the data over the next few weeks. john williams said we'll likely raise interest rates some what but it is in the context of a strongeconomy. the feds could pause in the lower range of neutral which means they have work do, just not maybe as much as they had first thought. >> stay with us. we'll continue discussing this jeff has joined us >> good to be mere >> thanks for having me. >> let's take a look they will decide whether they should step back >> i think they look and say

stuff like this happens in markets. they will be looking at the economic data. i think it is a much more consistent thing for all of us to be looking at for month to month volatility >> does that suggest they should take a pause >> still that they have one or two more left at least >> they are always which would be bad for the market. there is room between fed funds and sort of the ten year and 30 year if they got to three it would be a slipsychological victory for them >> we are seeing -- >> i think the fed may have done a disservice by not pointing it out. i'm not sure this is true but i

think some of the what the fed wants to do in terms of raising rates is kind of disconnect it from the date thaa. i think the other side is taking away the emergency rates of the financial crisis. i think it is still enough for the fed to go to three >> yeah. >> and it is unnerving for investors. >> and they don't lieke that th fed is focusing on the data. also, we are eight or phone line months from the whole discourse being about overheating.

are you seeing anything through capital markets lens where there's any disruptions or anything like that >> no. we are not i also want to be really clear i think we are in a different spot than what plomost of us are used to. i think we need to measure time in terms of experience not in terms of inkrement it means they have the ability to rebound quickly wubs it begins the read differently. >> do you think they have had a

home >> i don't think we have seen the fear factor. hedge funds have gotten smoked i think they are really off sides. a lot of them were in this market we have been very cautious i will just say we have played it very very close we have taken as much as we can. certainly with our businesses we are doing things to make sure we are not dependent on market directionality i think it's long term good business building. >> if the fed signals it is moderating will the market rally because that's what it wants or will it wonder in light of what president trump continues to say? >> i would say if the fed is viewed to be anything other than independent on this then we have much more fundamental long-term problem because people will

simply look -- investors will look to the president for making these calls and that's just a different place to be in >> i think the market is solving its problem. take a look at the ten year. 306 now. weren't we at like 306 when all of this began? i think it is pretty interesting. if the market had a problem with interest rates it is solving the problem for itself here. it's hard to argue that at these rates there's some dramatic impact now on corporate earnings maybe the fed raises short-term rates but it is not charging them on the long end >> we could look at other ones there as well. thank you both very much still to come, trade is reimmerging. details coming up on closing be ll ll every investor should ask questions. is our money in the right place? what am i really being charged? and is it eating into my returns? is my advisor a fiduciary? is he always a fiduciary?

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welcome back two portfolio managers join us with where their finding opportunities in the tech space. that's coming up next on the closing bell

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that gives you the edge you need. looks like we have a couple seconds left. let's do some card twirling twirling cards e*trade. the original place to invest online. tech stocks as the nasdaq plunges deeper faang lost $1 million. joining us to discuss more is chris johnson. are you buying in the middle of the tech wreck any of the these names? >> no.

absolutely not i think it's very very dangerous and one of the things that we are asked all of the time is when will this be over and i'm looking at it more from a psychological standpoint when people keep looking for a way too early. what i'm waiting patiently for is for people to throw these in at any price, real capitulation and then we will look. >> chris, have the fundamental gotten that much worse for these companies. >> no, they have not if you look at the last quarter it was a great quarter of earnings typically there is sell the news off that quint nailed it, itching he is looking over my soerld at my playbook you have too much optimism in this market. investors are looking for too much you want opportunity to buy, the vix pb the vch are all off february and march highs which tells me -- we talk about the wall of

worry and stocks cloim that wall we are sliding down a slope of hope and as quint said we are looking for everybody to run to the streets and have the panic moment nailed it, this is too orderly the decline. i'm waiting for chaos before we start buying. >> quint, i don't necessarily % d disagree with the sentiments if we low back for the moment when it criticalizes that people give up hope. but we don't get that before the market stabilizes, do we the market is down 10% off a high pits at levels higher than february would you actually expect by now there to be more sheer panic out there. >> i would for sure. but that speaks to the complacency. that has me. it seems like a common theme on this segment -- it has me very concerned. we're oversold right now we are oversold and we probably sew a bounz that will be seasonal. but i believe that's going to

trap more longs and people trying to buy into these things that are oversold. and ultimately i think these go a lot lower. it has been ages since we had a real -- and i mean a real healthy correction where stocks get cheap, not, you know, cheap in relative -- it in release to a comparable or some other high tech flying stock, i mean really cheap. i think we have a long way to go until that happens. >> chris, quickly, seasonality can abboost into the end of the year can that save the tech stocks this year in. >> right now, the trends are saying no. when you look at the channels we are headed lower as quint said and i hate to copy and say the same thing but people are selling into any strength i think there are some few stocks that will see some -- forget the older fang. microsoft, syscos. even with the interest rates wishy washy, old tech is

something you want to look at before looking at the fang stocks don't try to catch the falling knife i will lose an arm. >> quint and chris thank you very much. >> right recession fears weigh on the market. but the new survey revealing that's not the top concern of cfos we will tell you what is next. (indistinguishable muttering) that was awful. why are you so good at this? had a coach in high school. really helped me up my game. i had a coach. math. ooh. so, why don't traders have coaches? who says they don't? coach mcadoo! you know, at td ameritrade, we offer free access to coaches and a full education curriculum- just to help you improve your skills. boom! mad skills. education to take your trading to the next level. only with td ameritrade. ♪ ♪

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up next we will reveal the biggest fear facing wall street os right now

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the finding. >> the top exterm risk factor according to cf o we frayed. u.s. trade policy. last your 45% were worried about consumer demand. almost 75% said they impact the impact of the policies to be negative on businesses when they were asked what the congress top priority should be, almost half said infrastructure spending while a quarter said the trade agreements meantime on the fed about the 60% said they leahy a rate like for does next year two hikes. a little more than 40% three a notable shift op the stock market morp half said they think the dow falls below 23,000 last quarter the marmt were unsure some of the confidence certainly ee radio roding. on treasuries nearly all cfo think the 10-year yields will be over three%.

rising rates within falling stocks and trade policies keeping the cfos up at night, guys >> jackie thank you very much for that we'll certainly keep an eye on oil markets again after the big selloff today. that does it for "closing bell." >> thanks, mike. >> all right. >> see you tomorrow. "fast money" starts right now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site over looking new york city's time square. traders are the pete najarian. dan nathan and guy adami tonight on fast a sea of reed as the mechanic heads back to the october lows which names survive? the top technician tells us the two names he says are a screaming buy right now. plus morgan stanley mike wilson with a warning, do not buy this dip. he is here to explain why it's time for bulls to take a back seat the market selloff the dow sinking 600 points at th