splet them up. >> guy. >> splet them up >> isn't it great that dan's wife is watching and wants him medicated. >> meditating. >> anyway. diagnostics ahead of investment sfl see you back here tomorrow at 5:00. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now there is always a pull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it "mad money" starts now >> i'm just trying to save you money. my job is to entertain but to educate. to teach so call me at 1-800 cnbc or tweet me@jim

>> i've heard that from the fed. i've studied this for 40 years and i admit there is not that much correlation until people start losing a lot of money. guess what people have lost a lot of money. if you bought at the recent high, you're now down 10% on the average high in the s&p 500 and many cases 20% believe me, people feel that more importantly, the fed should be able to see it. at least if they're willing to look at it now, the fed is notorious for ignoring the importance of what the markets have to say. by the way, so is my old friend larry kudlow who seems more bullish than ever. i think that that is an ill-advised position if things are going to do what i think they're going to do. on the other hand, you can

recall only one time when the market was totally out of singh with what was about to happen in the economy and that is october of 87 when we crashed because the market couldn't handle an influx of sell orders from the futures bids one that you would certainlying nuts to ignore, the market, there would be no scientific basis to ignore. it is unnerving that there is still so many bulls who come on tv they urge you to buy the dips. which has been a totally discredited strategy but you have a rally from any level, you have to admit that buying at some of the high flyers, nothing short of disaster negative wealth effect is here and second reason, oil, plummeted from the highs in october. that is called deflation it is an extraordinary boon to the consumer and put's the fed's biggest worry in check i have to believe the price at the pump will come down the next few weeks. and we have an abundance of natural gas in this country and it needs to get where the demand

is which is self-fulfilling soon and i think renewables will happen and natural gas as backup when the rue knubles are not fresh. the key though is you got to regard that spike as contemporary but not the oil sink too many geopolitical reasons that will go lower i bet it can go, let's say much lower. for now, it shouldn't shock me if crude is in the high 40s. that will be my target more on that later in the show the collapse of retail stocks today, third i value that, what the stocks said, more than what the executives said and they keep saying it is the best holiday season ever because in consumers are in such good shape i regard the decline in the retail names as frightening. it is enough to make me think that the fed maybe should not tighten one more time in december because we could have one more good employment number and they could look wrong if they didn't give you the hike. i get that here is the issue. the retail stocks can't all be wrong, with the exception of foot locker this evening

there's signaling an impending slowdown loud and clear. remember the retailers took down a lot of inventory ahead of the tariffs in china what happens if they can't sell it all lower consumer prices. brian cornell, from target, they have bloated inventories there fourth season the fed may change course, housing is downright awful, people. your house is going down in value as i talk. i view the mortgage bankers association the most authoritative source and single families dropped for the second straight month in october, the lowest pace in four months and the worst year over year decline since march of 2015. and not every house is going down in valley, but there are huge swaths of the country where it is going. refinancing is at an 18-year loan if you have a mortgage and refinance any time since the recession, it is highly unlikely you want to move to a new house, when that requires taking out a

much more expensive mortgage than you currently have how bad is housing? smartest bank about housing, wells fargo. they laid off 900 people from the home mortgaging lending unit does that tell you houses will come back? no and that is the tip of the iceberg, and it can cause a an awful lot of layoffs as the home builders realize that the market is not coming back any time soon fifth reason, for the first time in 8 1/2 years, our hotel's collective revenues per roof fell last week that is sit up and take notice figure and sixth, the tariffs battles have frequently led to economic slowdowns but when the 10% tariffs against china go to 25%, it is going to be a lot of pain and stress in the system seventh, we're even getting some mainstream data that is negative for example, the nation's largest power transmission company has told us the mix of growth has started to shift. through the first half of the year, growth was balanced across most industries and operating

companies. in the third quarter, growth was dominated by the oil and gas sectors while the remaining sectors moderated. and the strong dollar is part of the problem. it will only get worse as the fed tightens what is more important, oim was driving things in the last quarter. oil? what happens to a commodity that just lost 24% of its value the last month eighth, reason for the fed to pause, autos the average car on the road in america is now 11.2 years old. cars last longer than they used to so the demand for new ones continue to slow even used car values fell by 1% last month peak auto and peak housing and peak retail, housing, will probably lead to layoffs now i grudgingly admit that powell may tighten by another quarter point next month and it won't throw us in a real slowdown employment is that good. but i think that employment is peaked too bottom line, next year, when we annualize the tax cut, when the tariffs are at 25%, when the retail and housing layoffs begin ernest, including prominent

retailers, certain retailers that i don't need to point out, let's say that powell keeps raising rate, we don't want to own a lots of stocks the worst things get, the more likely it is that the fed will do the right thing, though that's the one silver lining today. still, let's hope powell sees the light soon or else these declines could get, i admit, even nastier one and wait should be the watch word mike in virginia, mike >> caller: thank you for taking my call. you're just awesome. >> thank you appreciate it. >> caller: question. owen strong revenue growth. solid cash flow. they captured commercial aerospace orders $490 billion. seven year backlog order more than 5800 planes. they have expanded their business more than double digits. and now the stock has been up more than 35% over this year but the lion jet crash investigation regarding the

system has pushed the stock down 20%. is this a buying opportunity >> why don't we hear about what they had to say about the 737 max. i would like to hear that conversation call before i give you an all clear especially because one out of every four planes goes to china, boeing knows, i've been a huge fan of boeing for years, but i still want to hear them, because i want to be prudent let's go to matt in texas. matt >> caller: yes, i have owned spb since february >> okay. >> caller: and today, it is up 2.5% should i buy, sell or hold >> that was not a good quarter for spectrum brands. it just wasn't and when i went over it, i think you can consider yourself lucky you got a little bounce. and i would skee-dadle let me give you the silver lining of today's action it gives the fed chief what he needs to, let's say, do one and wait okay "mad money" tonight, after a hideous decline today, i'm getting a better read on the

carnage in tonight's off the charts, especially with oil. and tech stocks are taking the blame for the recent sell-offs i will go back to ground zero, of the tech wreck. and siri can't help you figure out the market's decline, but i'm talking to the creator of the revolutionary technology find out what he thinks about the major players in the spao sy with cramer. (toni vo) 'twas the night before christmas,

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when you buy a new smartphone. xfinity mobile. it's simple. easy. awesome. click, call or visit a store today. >> the worst thing about bear markets, aside from the money they lose you, is they can become self-fulfilling from one asset class that lays to waste, as the stock market continues to plunge, you have to address one of the less obvious causes of the decline. i spend a lot of time explaining the fundamentals all of the stuff of the fed and the tariffs and the worldwide slowdown, but there is another side of to this. the technical side driven by the mechanics of the money management business. commodities kept classing two weeks ago. that wiped out an enormous amount of wealth and that transfers to stocks. you have tons of money managers with staggering losses and if

their investors want out and they need to raise capital, they need to sell something and that often is stocks so there is that linkage even though you think if oil goes down, say wouldn't that be great for stocks only 10% of the market benefits from lower, from higher oil. 90% is a loser so because we need to get a better read on the carnage, we're going to get the help of our commodities resident, the co-founder of the carly trading and has the high probability of commodity training, the best, and last week, there was extreme volatility in the energy market with both crude oil and natural gas swinging wildly. this led to the demise of very large hedge funds and commodity trading advisers,which are a lot like hedge funds but they maintain individual accounts for each investor and they can only trade futures contracts or options on futures contracts many of these funds bet on oil going higher and natural gas going lower. it seemed like a natural idea. but the opposite happened.

the price of crude has plunged basically a lot of professional money managers got caught with their pants down and those who bought the oil futures using borrowed money are getting margin calls left and right. that's what you saw today. they need to pony up to pay back the brokers but in some cases there is nothing left to pay them and the fund managers lost more money than their clients ever invested in them. that's a phone call you would never want to get. and you should never buy anything on margin i hope you listen to me on this. i'm bright and some of you may be saying who cares about the commodities futures, it is a stock show. and it is not that simple. with borrowed money, they need to pony up more collateral or the broker will close out the position that's the dreaded margin. and to raise the collateral, they seem to be selling a lot of stocks and that's why it should be blamed on short-sighted manager, liquidating stocks to pay for the commodity market margin calls because they're so

big. we need to get a better read on where oil may be heading because it keeps going lower and the pain could continue to spread. take a look at the chart showing the seasonal patterns in west texas crude and how it historically trades over the course of the year the bulls won't be getting any help from the seasonal forces. look at this oil tends to peak in october and then, well, trade lower through november and we had a little bounce here. but still very, very low even historically, the annual bottom tends to start in late january or february. so if history is any guide, more pain ahead but we're really worried, this thing is so hideous when you see this, look at this, this is the weekly chart of west texas crude with commodity futures trading, with commitments of traders and every week, they release data that tells us what speculators, money managers, and commercial hedgers are doing with the futures positions. and garner loves to use the day to figure out whether the money

managers are too bullish or too bearish. after a $24 decline from the highs in october, the large speculators still have a substantial net long position. and this has been a very crowded trade for a long time. that's why we have been warned all year that lower oil prices could be in the cards and it is still surprisingly crowded. large speculators had roughly 230,000 contracts as of the latest reading that is down dramatically from the 730,000 at the peak. how long are those people? not down enough to make garner believe we're ready to bottom. in 2016, the price of crude bottomed at $30 a barrel and the net long position was at 160,000. you can see, we are still far away from where you could go meanwhile, all kinds of sentiment suggests that investors have not been keeping up on oil. the poll of various industry players, a reading shows that

the bullish index is still in the 40s. why is does that matter? because whether you're talking about a stock or a commodity, these things tend to peak when people get too positive and bottom when people get too negative and there is no one left to sell this makes garner think we may have more down side before the bulls finish capitulating. check out the weekly chart i know it seems like it is a -- well, a weekly chart of west texas crude going back to 2014 you need some context here okay garner points out that a 20% decline in a month and a half just isn't that crazy. when you're dealing with commodities. see, look at these look at these declines so it is not so crazy. it is something that for most of 2018, the oil markets had this extraordinarily low volatility period however, when you zoom out, we've had much worse moves in the not too distant past remember the big energy meltdown in 2014? right? oil is more than capable of losing 50% of its valuable in a straight line and can rally just

as rapidly what does this chart tell us the better part of two years, oil has been gradually working its way higher and we have now fallen through that floor, okay boom garner says the next meaningful floor of support is 51 down two bucks remember, this is a weekly that we're looking at and there is another floor below that at 42 but that would represent a pretty horrific decline. here is the problem. despite the recent meltdown, garner points out that the oil futures amazingly are still, still not oversold meaning they have not actually gone down so far, so fast that they're due for a bounce look at the relative strength indicator right here, and the slow indicator here. both of which measure this kind of thing they're going down neither indicator is dipped into oversold territory yet which will be below that line. that is one more reason garner expects more downside for oil. at the very least, she thinks we will visit the low 50s oil went out 52 dollars.

and before anything is said and down and below 51 dollars, any breakdown below that could mean a terrifying $42 which is the next floor that would be amazing. and there is a chance that oil could fall in the low 40s by early next year. and that is a, i think that is pretty high. now, with the $51 area, if it hold, garner expects oil to eventually make its way to the higher end of the trading channel. but for that to happen, we will need to see some significant improvement in fundamentals first. the bottom line, you can't understand this breakdown in the stock market unless you recognize that we're seeing some spillover from the carnage in the oil futures. and the charts shown by kelly garner shows that oil has downside, which could mean more selling of stock because of the margin calls maybe this will help the fed to adopt my one and wait stance paul in massachusetts, paul?

>> caller: hi, jim boo-yah. after all these years of watching >> here we go. what's up? >> caller: well, i'm interested, jim, in your comments regarding chesapeake energy. -- i've been in and out of it over the years and today it is down 8%. >> i thought it is interesting it is down% and very negative, and natural gas is actually doing well so my take is no, we can't be there, it is not the right place to be. i'm very sorry i wish i could be more positive. all right, this carnage in oil is part of the reason for today's agony, believe it or not. and unfortunately, oil could have more down side. meaning more pain for stocks ahead, my take on the tech wreck. when did the pain start? and more importantly, when will it end then speaking of tech, with the nasdaq at its lowest level in seven months, it is hard to remember the glory days of the sector tonight i'm talking to one of the creators behind the voice

assistant revolution and see how developers are shaping the sector and we're highlighting dividends and using century link as an example. stay with cramer it's not what champions do. it's what champions don't do. they don't back down. they don't settle. and they don't quit... except for cable. cable? oh you can quit cable.

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it is easy to understand why the industrials are moving down. home builders and the retailers. but ti-- tech was supposed to be different. it was a juggernaut. everything looked good and you felt like a moron if you didn't buy the dips but now tech is in a breath taking bear market and while many of the stocks feel unstoppable still, they are unstoppable in the wrong breks. what changed one thing is for certain, you would never tell from the news

flow pretty much all tech peaks in the last week of september but there was nothing in the news to justify it and everybody was worried about the fed chief's gung-ho attitude for rate hikes and vice president mike pence's new attitude tore china. i will tell you the real culprits first jab, right around the same time a new consensus started emerging, out of nowhere, frankly, the data center had peaked and the data center is connected to everything, omni channel and the rise to the cloud and the internet of things it was the beating heart of the tech bull market so the idea that the data center's spent force has been deadly to the whole sector, it has dogged it the whole way. the new narrative. refuses to go away we will spoil the evidence to the contrary and there is a lot of. it coming out of sales force's.com annual dream force, at the end of september, where business seemed red hot, i have been rebelling against the whole strain of thought. and there were too many companies embracing the cloud for me to believe there was a real reason for the data center.

it didn't matter the fact is, that somehow the data center business in some people's minds overbuilt it wasn't easy to spot as recently as the middle of october, we had information. and they came on and talked about robust growth. if anything, business seemed to be accelerating. it didn't matter you could not kill this narrative. you still can't. then we went to october where amazon reports and upon closer examination, i believe neither quarter showed neither indication of a slowdown it says so in the data center. there was nothing super encouraging either and that brings me to the second punch. while the data center smackdown thesis knocked the bull market off balance, amazon, it was the upper cut that knocked the whole group, and it has not been able to regain its footing. >> it took us some time to realize what had changed what had happened? i think you had more to do with the stocks than the companies. the buy the dip strategy stopped working. for years, buying tech stocks at the weakest was a smart move but

it has become a big money loser. going down on rumors and now suddenly we are going down on facts even though i think the results are being misinterpreted the facts themselves were actually pretty good but when stocks go down after they report, everyone assumes the numbers have to be disappointing or the forecasts are bad. even at the end of october and ibm obtained red hat, it didn't matter and the bears said it was a desperate move on ibm's part the stock has been crushed and the red hat's ceo says it sold its company at the top and you should sell all of the cloud picks. since then, all of the attempts of the rally have failed as the group has been plagued by data center fears and there is a weakness in gaming cryptocurrency what about the nvidia shortfall? crypto was a mitigated disaster, the data center hurt too it keeps coming back to that the data center is hurting and people conclude the cloud must be hurting

that is not necessarily true it is a supply problem too much capacity. not a demand problem and then apple stopped disclosing the number of iphones itselves and that started the next decline. and of course, we have no evidence of that, but we have no evidence of the cloud slowing either and that doesn't stop sales force. apple stock goes down every day on the same information. you know what is amazing even in going down, almost ten points, it never seems cheap enough to stop the sellers from selling. so here we are tech sector has been conquered by the bears we have entered a world where good news is irrelevant and bad news is all that matters and i don't see how tech can give you a sustainable rebound without some hard evidence that the data center's okay, or that its weakness is truly over capacity, not a slowdown in demand from the cloud. until then, you have to wait until the knives are done falling. i don't want you to be a butcher block. i want you to make money let's go to kirk in colorado

please, kirk >> caller: boo-yah dr. cramer. >> boo-yah, kirk what's up? >> caller: my question is on spotify. it is down over 33%. and hitting an all time low this morning before rebounding and to close up over 2% on a bad day and on the conference call, they announced two new partnership, one with samsung for the app to be loaded on all of the new phones out of the box, and with alphabet, a sponsor of google's speaker promo. they should both be new subscriber catalysts so do you think -- >> spotify had a good quarter. it didn't matter it is kind of like my theme here it did not matter. it was a good quarter though let's go to jim in new york. please, jim. >> caller: hello, jim. >> how are you doing, buddy? >> caller: good, jim from long island new york. thanks for sharing all of your insight and years of experience. >> i wish i had more insight about this decline but go ahead, i appreciate it. >> caller: with all of the

uncertainty in the market, i want to know your thoughts because i can't find any news on it, zora >> i think they are doing a good job. i believe in the economy, but i believe that stocks that don't have good yields are somewhat sensitive to tech are going down and i think this stock, i used to say this all the time in the my old hedge fund, the stocks themselves will tell us when you should start buying. and it doesn't seem like it is happening yet. but we're seeing it is getting oversold the tech decline is based on assumptions, not facts so here we are in a bear market with no footing. and you can't stop it. again, we can get an oversold bounce and lighten p up, up, but 50% of households use intelligent assistance and revolutionize the way we live and could they revolutionize the market i'm talking to a visionary when it comes to the technology. >> and one of the nation's telecommunications and you may very well own it and what do you make of -- no,

i'm not telling you but i will give you my take rapid fire tonight's edition of "lightning round.

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listen up. i know this market is soul crushing i know it is easy to be pessimistic. but it is important to remember that the stock market has been an incredible engine of wealth cracy and obviously it doesn't help us on a daily basis but when we get through it, i don't want you to be soured on a stock as an asset class if you miss the move. >> why do i believe in the market long term simple progress good old-fashioned ingenuity our companies keep coming up with truly incredible things things have changed every aspect of our lives think of the rise of these virtual assistant, the siri, alexa, cortana and bixby from samsung. the technology is incredibly useful from asking simple questions, what was the score of the rams/chiefs game, to scheduling to note taking last night i told siri to wake

me up at 3:30 this morning and she did as she was told much to my wife's chagrin. >> people who are understandably worried that the devices are spying on them and they can hit you with better targeted ads but i don't think we spend enough time considering all of the positives which is why i'm excited that the man who invented the technology, dag kittlaus, co-founder of siri sold to apple and then current co-founder and ceo of viv, the company behind bixby, which was sold to samsung last year. mr. kittlaus, welcome to "mad money. this is very exciting. how you are sir? have a seat. the first thing i got to ask you, is what the hell have we been doing typing all these years? isn't that the dumbest thing ever >> i've been in mobile for a while, and it turns out that typing is like speaking seven times faster than typing >> and won't we laugh one day that we typed?

>> yes, i think. so speech recognition, 90% accuracy right now and as you get past the thresholds of quality, suddenly, everyone starts using it. >> and when i was growing up, one of my dad's heroes, a guy by the name of dag hammershield and spelled it just like you do and i pronounced it dog and will these machines know the difference between dag and dog >> eventually. siri allows you to learn the contact names in your list there is functionality in there to do that. >> is that something you put in? >> it came in after me. >> are you happy with what they've done with siri since you invented it? >> on the positive side, it is a lot faster the speak recognition has gotten a lot better but they dropped the ball on a couple of things like opening it up to third parties so i think this whole thing becomes a lot more interesting. >> you have to explain that to the larger audience. >> yes, so siri today is sort of an, assistants in general are used in a basic way, setting

reminders. >> yes. >> when you open it up to a third party, ecosystem, like the app store did, so imagine 2007, iphone launch, about nine apps on it and this is like weather and stocks and nine months later, they open the app store, and now you've got millions and millions of apps that changed the world. we want to do that with a.i. and with assistants, so it becomes a much more important part of your day. >> how about the other one, how about bixby? >> that is exactly what, we just launched, this week, the samsung developer conference, a new set of tools that let third parties come in and almost like a wikipedia way. and anyone can add new things to bixby. it will be cool, because eventually you have thousands of things that these things can do for you. one of the most important parts of your day. so i think, you know, search and a lot of the ways that we interact with things, it is going to be a different story. >> have you seen the com cast clicker? >> yes. >> what did you think? >> i talked to brian about it.

>> don't you think it is really cool >> once you use it, you don't go back to the old way. >> and one things, when i got to see it, i mean i think the old way is stupid as wood you can't really -- i shouldn't say that, but saying cramer as he "mad money," it goes on and it is one of those things, i would never go back. >> exactly >> but let me ask you about the privacy concerns for instance, my lawyer friend is convinced that alexa listens to everything he is thinking everything he is saying. and does a lot of stuff that is privileged and confidential. and afraid to have alexa in the room >> well, i get that question a lot. so i worked in two companies where we've been in all of those discussions about privacy and how we are going to handle security and so on and the reality is that it is not listening to everything you're saying and recording it it is listening for wake words so hey, siri. >> what? >> wake words. >> and how about are you series? and everybody says turn your

phone off and they get that wrong, right >> there is a functionality to make it hands-free, basically. >> so you -- >> me and some others. >> really, like this idea, changed the world, i think i mean i don't use it. see, i'm old so i don't use it for the things that my kids do. i always feel stupid that they can do things. and i need to have basically tell me what the future holds, so i know what to do tell me. well, will it be that i can ask, say listen, take me somewhere, in my self driving car >> yes >> take me to the best pizza in the world. >> for example, there is over a billion hours of wasted commute time and people just driving back from work every day. imagine if you could talk to your car and ask it to order some food, grub hub and arrive 10 minutes after i get home. >> perfect. >> or shopping for gifts >> perfect. >> holidays. >> absolutely. >> and send my dad the latest

steve jobs photographer at his house in michigan. >> this will happen? >> it will absolutely happen. >> you're cool man you can come back any time you want dag kittlaus, co-founder of siri and co-founder and ceo of bixby. thanks for coming.

it is time then the "lightning round" is over are you ready? skee-daddle. let's start with john in connecticut. john >> caller: hey, jim, thanks for taking my call my stock is five below >> we almost pulled the trigger and told the club that it was the right level to buy it is 103. incredibly oversold. i like it. i like that one. let's go to john in washington john >> caller: hi, jim i've been free falling with this one. >> this is another one this is a data center play

i can't tell you when it is going to bottom. i can tell you it is doing well. and that's the problem in a bear market the doing well is not translating to the stock going higher let's go to mike in north carolina mike >> caller: jim, boo-yah. bigger, better burlington, north carolina two part question, if i may. i'm trying to bring into the 5g sector and i want to know about crown castle international, if it is a good thing to cover the sector and also, what other companies are you seeing in the sector >> the best is qualcomm, the same yield as crown castle a lot of volatility involving apple. 5g i think is two years away i have been trying to recommend broadcom and qualcomm but i can't tell you to do it yet because it is too far. steve in new york. >> caller: steve in new york you're a natural on tv square >> here is the problem with square this drives me crazy it is really good. it is doing well but it is up 78%

and the stock is like up totally up 200%. as soon as you see these gains, people just can't stop and there we go. let's go to jerry in south carolina jerry? >> caller: jim, thanks for taking my call. >> of course. >> caller: i own 3 d systems i want to know your thoughts >> didn't like the quarter not the one to be n. >> gina in florida gina. >> caller: hi, jim thanks for stick can with us through challenging days like today. >> and it is going to end because these companies simply are not doing that bad the adobes are not doing that bad. the alphabets are not doing that bad but we have to get through this together. what's up? hello. i made her hang up i didn't heen to do that john -- i didn't mean to do that john, what's up? >> caller: john from connecticut here starting to nibble a little bit,

i'm nibbling a little bit at dana industries. >> you're a nib ler, i tell you that much. that thing is down bipg. 50%. and i would like to own one of these tech stocks. it is not doing badly. people think they're doing badly. because we're in a bear market in tech. let's go to brent in texas brent? >> caller: hey, i would like to hear your thoughts on the biggest e-commerce etailor on the planet, ally babber. >> if you're vice president pence, you want to take alibaba down and i recommend no chinese stocks when you have the vice president who wants to take down a stock market in china, why should i recommend a chinese stock? let's go to eric in kentucky eric >> caller: hey, jim, boo-yah >> boo-yah. >> caller: i'm looking at this one. >> the bio market is too crowded

and i would rather be on the other side of the market where they make the original drugs >> jb in california. >> caller: snapchat. >> still too early to buy snapchat let's go to chuck in maryland. chuck? chuck? oh, okay and that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the "lightning round." when you trade? free ac. yep, td ameritrade's got that. free access to every platform. yeah, that too. i don't want any trade minimums. yeah, i totally agree, they don't have any of those. i want to know what i'm paying upfront. yes, absolutely. do you just say yes to everything? hm. well i say no to kale. mm. yeah, they say if you blanch it it's better, but that seems like a lot of work. no hidden fees. no platform fees. no trade minimums. and yes, it's all at one low price. td ameritrade. ♪

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when the stock market is getting shelved, and right now, it feels like the bears have put up the heavy artillery, there is a natural urge to duck and cover. and hunker down. and then try to weather the destruction. and in this kind of sell-off, the best fox holes are often given in stocks because the payout is a cushion, a cushion that should limit your down side theoretically and help the stock in question bounce back. once the smoke clears. i'm providing you with a steady source of income and a reliable dividend does something special. it gives you another way to value stocks when everyone is worried about an economic slowdown that could potentially turn 2019 into a down year for many companies, you might not be able to tally

the earnings forecast. a dividend is maybe something you can trust. it tells you when a stock has gotten too cheap something that was too expensive with a 3.5% dividend yield might be a steal when the price comes down to a 5% yield and it becomes a high yielder which we love but this strategy of hiding in dividend stocks only works if you're looking at the dividend itself that is safe. then it won't be cut by management if you have only mild suspicions that the payout might be in jeopardy, i have to tell you, never reach for yields it is not worth the risk. >> which brings me to century link the old school wire line telephone and data company we have been getting a lot of calls on the show about this one. because century link stock has underperformed for years it has an 11.5% dividend. largest in the s&p 500 but i can't recommend century link though. for a number of reasons. the main one is i don't have enough faith in the dividend and any time you see a stock with double digit yield, that is

an enormous red flag people okay it says many investors don't believe in the company and will be able to maintain the payout here is where i have to go with the crowd. so what's wrong with century link the stock has been moving slowly but steadily lower for the past decade and no wonder. it is a wire line telecommunications company you can dress that up, however you want, and essentially, century link has been tried to rebrand but voice and data and video is not enough. and an increasingly wireless world, century link feels like a dinosaur over a year ago, they did something drastic and acquired level 3 communications a big data network and a lot of people think it is the physical backbone of the internet for $34 billion, including debt. the idea was to create a more formidable competitor to at&t and verizon and also creating opportunities for major cost cuts it would boost the combined company's earnings initially the stock market was

skeptical. late last year, century link stock started bouncing and caught upgrades from bullish analysts who like the stock's risk heading into 2018 and for a while, they looked like they were executing well. even though the company's revenues were disappointing, they generated some strong free cash flow in the first and second quarters and enough to convince you that the huge dividend was not in danger, there was nothing to worry about. keep moving. then century link reported a week and a half ago. and the numbers were so ugly, that the stock plunged from 21 dollars down to less than 19 a 10% decline in a single session. and what went wrong? the company gave you another revenue miss although the earnings were in line with wall street expectations and it is not like the revenue short fall seemed to bother shareholders earlier this year the real problem was the guidance they raised the free cash flow forecast raised it and they did it in a way that i thought was bad and sent the stock in a tail spine.

don't we want more cash flow sure, in a vacuum, more is better than less but in reality, it matters how you generate the cash. century link boosted the cash flow by $400 million sounds good. but they didn't raise the forecast, because they're signing up more business through the. >> it -- telco service, all that price wept from one thing, they cut the capital expenditure guidance and they have more cash flow because they invested less money in the business. why is that a problem? for a telecommunications company like century link, especially one in the process of a massive acquisition, they need to invest in the infrastructure. how else will they compete with verizon and at&t how else can they come up with real revenue growth down the line on the management call, the management explained that they are pulling back from low margin businesses, but i think it is ill-advised. look century link it is a $20 billion with debt, and the revenues keep declining after

you adjust for the level 3 acquisitions and so far they have benefitted from the cost cuts from the acquisition, but sooner or later, they will run out of costs to cut and then what happens after that? they keep generating to keep paying the $2.60 per year dividends you're fine. but given the shrinkage and the debt load and the earnings missing, who knows how long you will be fine for who knows whether they will be sustainable and they have brought in a new ceo and that makes me extra concerned because the new ceos don't seem to be as concerned about protecting the dividends the old ceo, i think he wanted to keep his shareholders happy but the new ceo, who comes from level 3, has more of a free-hand to cut the payout if business slows down next year and he feels it is necessary. again, there is no sign of this, there wasn't a sign of this, ge, or l brands but the size of the

yield is a concern to me let me give you the bottom line. dividends are a great place to hide in a horrific market but only safe dividends that you can count on century link with the 11.5% yield and declining revenues doesn't give you another safety, and that is why i cannot recommend this stock stick with cramer.

♪ ♪ i'm all for my neighborhood. i'm all for backing the community that's made me who i am. i'm all for my theatre, my barbershop and my friends.

because the community doesn't just have small businesses, it is small businesses. and that's why american express founded small business saturday. so, this year let's all get up, get out and shop small on november 24th. i got croissant. small business saturday. a small way to make a big difference. remember what i said, a lot of these stocks are going down because of rumors of weakness. apple has been down every single day on the same rumor of weakness at a certain point, these will be okay. but you got to let the sellers finish if they're done, and you see the market starting to rally, then you might have something to do but right now, it is all shadow box. it is all rumors like i said, there is always a bull market somewhere. right here on "mad money," i'm jim cramer, i will see you tomorrow

>> welcome to the shark tank, where entrepreneurs seeking an investment will face these sharks. if they hear a great idea, they'll invest their own money or fight each other for a deal. this is "shark tank." ♪ first into the tank is a couple with a product hoping to emulate the best part of a favorite breakfast food. hi, my name is chris pouy... and i am tiffany panhilason. and our company is called cow wow cereal milk. and we're asking for $250,000