yesterday. we'll bring you his comments straight ahead it's wednesday, november 21, 20 2018 live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box." all right. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. let's look at u.s. equity futures. it's been a rough week so far. dow is down 950 points for monday and tuesday sessions. right now we are indicated up by 65 points. nasdaq is indicated up by 37 points after its rough sledding over the last couple of days, down 1.7% yesterday, down 3% the day before s&p is indicated up by 8 1/2 points if you look at the damage at this point, the dow, the s&p 500

have both lost their 2018 gains. the dow is now down by 9.2%. the s&p and the nasdaq are in correction territory with the s&p down by 10.2% from its highs and the nasdaq off by 15%. the russell is also in correction territory let's look overnight in asia you can see the nikkei ended down another third of a percentage point stocks in china were stronger. the hang seng closed up by half a percentage point in europe, some early trading taking place, you will see that right now it looks like there are green arrows across the board. these are modest advances given some of the concerns we've seen over the last couple of sessions right now the dax is up 0.6% the ftse is up by a similar gain the cac is up by 0.30%

treasury markets are one to watch, too so many people talking about what the fed will do next. will they raise in december. the ten-year note, 3.077%. the atlanta fed lowered its projections for the fourth quarter to 2.5%. we have mark grant to talk about that look at oil prices lots of damage there crude oil down 6.6% yesterday. 53.43 is where it closed that's the lowest settlement since october of 2017. this morning crude oil up by 86 cents for wti to 55.29 let's check out a some of the top corporate stories. walgreens and humana are in talks. the two companies are considering taking equity stakes in each other. this would be the latest drugstore operator to team up with a health insurer. cvs last year announced a $69 billion deal with aetna.

there's been speculation about a humana/walgreens deal for some time >> mark zuckerberg defending facebook this morning ahead a number of scandals and media report zuckerberg dismissing reports about leadership changes >> so you are not stepping down as chairman. >> that's not the plan >> that's not the plan would anything change that >> i mean, eventually over time, i'm not going to be doing this forever. but i certainly i'm not currently thinking that makes sense. >> mark zuckerberg controls about 60% of facebook's voting power which means he would have to voluntarily step down from his role as chairman he also praised coo sheryl sandberg he previously blamed her and her

team for many problems at facebook which made sandberg question whether she should be worried about her job. >> sheryl is an important part of this company and is leading a lot of efforts to address some of the biggest issues that we have and she's been an important partner for me for ten years you know, i'm proud of the work we've done together. i hope we work together for decades more to come >> zuckerberg also defended facebook's actions in handling data privacy and information around the presidential election in 2016 but did not address specifics. facebook shares lost about a quarter of their value this year >> that's today's trading. >> you're looking at that in the premarket. >> yesterday it was up it managed a gain in that market even with all of this swirling around deviser on the dow is 0.147, something like that. it's 7 points per move in dow components, which is a crazy way of doing things.

ge can move 10% and not affect -- it's not in the dow any way. but lower priced stocks. okay yesterday with all the stuff swirling around, boeing managed to close at 317 after trading at 296. boeing came back 21 points if you had boeing yesterday, if it had been on its lows, you would have added another seven times -- it was 20 points lower than that. apple found almost $8 or $9. >> goggle closed up about 5. amazon was down 16 it was like it was around 1500, it was down 16 not a dow component. after it was down 16, it was up

16 there's crazy stuff happening. when it all added up -- now i'm starting to think that's sort of an archaic way >> over time it tracks the s&p 500. >> it does, even with all of the weirdnes weirdness. >> tech tried to make a stand yesterday. >> yeah. >> i don't know. cramer -- i see his tweets and everything he's like finally getting oversold not completely oversold, but some work being done we're consolidating at lower levels today we'll talk about the market there's a lot of questions people still have. >> how to cook a turkey? >> yeah. i was wondering about you. >> yeah. >> have you actually been in your kitchen

do you have a kitchen? >> we have a kitchen >> have you visited the people that work there? have you been there? do you cook a turkey let me rephrase that is a turkey cooked in that kitchen by anyone for thursday >> a turkey is cooked in my mother's kitchen >> okay. >> and i help. >> do you really >> probably not enough that's what she would say. >> she would probably be right >> she would be right. yeah that's what goes on. >> this year i'm looking forward to the respite i will be thankful i will be thankful brian sullivan pointed out the shares of our parent company are up >> month to date >> and a respite will be welcomed the market can't go down tomorrow that's tru >> that's true it's not open. >> today we will trot out our

coverage about how to do turkeys and the video we show will be about as fresh as romaine lettuce. my dad ate a caesar salad and ate some news and threw it out the fda is saying throw out any romaine lettuce across the country. >> i went to a dinner last night, there was lettuce on the table, nobody touched the lettuce. >> e. coli for being everywhere, you don't want it on your food >> right right. let's get back to the markets. let's get technical analysis on the volatility we're seeing and find out if there's light at the end of the tunnel. joining us is andrea cramer. and gary bradshaw joins us also what do you think, andrea? what signs are you seeing to tell us where we stand in this

situation now? >> so there's been a lot of talk about the s&p 200-day moving average, which breaks of that have typically preceded choppy price action so this volatility is not really anything new the demarcation point that we're watching right now is the s&p 80-week moving average if the index closes below that on friday, then there's heightened risk for more bearish price action in our opinion. >> which would mean what >> which would just mean, you know, there's heightened risk for stocks to decline more breaks of the 80-week in the past have been an indicator for stronger selloffs, at least compared to the s&p 200-day. that's the trend line we're watching >> there's been talk about depth crosses moving below the 200-day

average, last week it was google today it's netflix what do you think about those situations >> so we've actually done some research on death crosses, they're not as ominous as they sound. the one-month return after a death cross is stronger than a golden cross which is much stock into the death crosses right now. >> gary, i know you look at things differently, just from fundamental perspective and what some headline risk is out there now. you heard what andrea said from the technical perspective what are your expectations based on what you're seeing >> we're getting more opted mystic at the hodges small cap fund earnings have been awful strong. they were great in theonl caps,%

they'll be up over 30% in this third quarter. yes, earnings are slowing, but we think it's now time to play offense. and what we've done in our portfolio is we're concentrating the portfolio in our most convicted ideas. we've gone from about 60 names to 50 over the last couple of months our most convicted stocks whose earnings we think will hold up, and they do well in a slowing environment as well as a strong environment. so we think we're in the middle of a correction. the consumer is strong 70% of the economy is the consumer corporate confidence is high and so we don't think it's the end of the world honestly we think there could be upcoming catalyst that could

make the market rally into the end of the year. that catalyst, we have got the fed governor powell speaking, maybe he starts talking abg the down with the fed rates. we got the g20 at the end of the month. we think trump would like a trade deal xi would like a trade deal maybe something positive comes out there. we're not as negative. we think we're in a correction we're getting our portfolio ready for rally towards the end of the year. >> gary, what are some of the names you're trading into? >> we've been buying texas ro roadhouse of late. here's a restaurant company that had 35 consecutive quarters of positive same-store sales, they got dinged a touch last quarter with increases in labor and they

had a one-time insurance cost. but they say they'll be able to raise prices 2% this next year 5.5% comp last quarter business is great there. we also think the energy stocks are oversold as joe mentioned earlier, crude is down $20 in the last couple of months. we love diamondback energy the low-cost producer in the permian basin. they'll grow production 50% this year earnings will be up 50%. cash flow up so we've rotated in some of what we think are the best companies out there that we think will outperform going forward >> thank you both. gary, thank you. gary bradshaw. andrea kramer, good to see you both >> happy thanksgiving. another big oil spill for

the markets this week. brian sullivan has more on the fallout from the latest slide in crude. good morning 7% drop yesterday. oil prices in the mid 50s. when the iran sanctions were coming on i'm not sure anyone on this network were saying oil prices will drop by 20 bucks a barrel in two months, but that's what they've done. as oil has come down, some stocks have been whacked we've created baskets of names big cap oil, the exxons, ser chevrons, they're down 16%, but stocked based in the permian basin and eagleford shale of texas, up 23%. if you're in the bakken, so you have probably higher costs and more debt to fund those costs, you're down 33 prg%. there's been massive hair cuts taken.

new field exploration, down by half oasis petroleum, that's down by half whiting, seeing a pattern here down 49% marathon oil, that is not a small cap oil driller, that's one of the biggest oil companies in america 34% off of its 52-week high. the reality is this. iran still selling oil saudi arabia ramped up production and so you got more production, you have less demand, and that marginal cost for a barrel of oil doesn't have the value it did and it's bringing down the entire chain oil investors are left holding the bag. >> yeah. saudi arabia owes trump big time >> bigley. >> my goodness >> we will move on andrew will want to -- >> ask me anything, joe. i'm here for you >> i don't always read the

bottom stories in the "journal," this is like the investigative reporting that they put in here. i don't know what kind of staff they had about -- do you know this, sully? do you know if you make pumpkin pie out of pumpkin, it's basically inedible stri stringy? watery >> i hate all gourds >> no, there's a gourd used by all pumpkin manufacturers it's called a dickinson pumpkin, it's not a pumpkin, it's a squash, the fda says you can call it pumpkin. if you try to make a pumpkin pie out of pumpkin -- >> you can tell a lot by the person by the kind of pie they like i'm strawberry rhubarb person. joe, you are like pecan? >> i do love it. >> i knew you were nuts. >> not a lot i don't love.

pumpkin cream. >> apple pie i was able to request -- >> go back to that say that again, brian? what did we miss he went like this. >> i said he liked pecan pie because he was nuts. he didn't acknowledge. >> i was trying to help you. >> remember that from the '80s psych? >> you have to watch our pumpkin segment. if you want to see old stuff being rehashed again and again, i'm interviewing the turkey lady at 7:10. >> maybe we need to do an update >> i have some new stuff >> every family has that one special thing around their table. andrew ross sorkin, what is that one thing that differentiates the sorkin thanksgiving. becky quick, what differentiates the quick thanksgiving >> green bean casserole. >> green bean casserole. >> very midwest of you >> my producer on "worldwide

exchange," she has empa nnattast celebrate the cuban side of her family >> my mother has these little chocolate turkeys, but they're probably 20 years old. so you can't eat them. but you need to know you can't eat them they're on the table but we've had them for years >> maybe you should put some plaster of paris around them >> i had my choice of which pies i picked an apple. because it's so good and a pumpkin cheesecake with a gram cracker crust i will put whip cream on that. >> we're going with cherry and pumpkin. >> you do the chili on spaghetti with some cinnamon and skyline action to celebrate your cincinnatiness >> on the pie? >> what's the ice cream you got there? >> grader's. that's a possibility i will keep going until someone

says please move on. i know it's coming >> they did already. >> it's not in my ear. is it already? >> yeah. >> okay. i guess earnings from deer are in is it really 3 degrees all the time in syracuse you said that like it was a fact it's not, is it? >> it feels like it. >> but it's not a true fact. >> for some reason i'm hosting the noon show today because scott wapner took off, tune in somebody >> don't mess with those cities up in new york i said something about buffalo once, i'm still hearing about it >> ithank you, brian let's talk about those earnings that are just in from deer the heavy equipmentmaker earning $2.30 a share,short of the 2.4 consensus estimate a lot short actually revenue coming in short of what the street was expecting despite a double digit increase in equipment sales.

that stock is off by 4.7%. yeah we'll continue to dig through some of these things but they said that equipment sales were up by 18% u.s. and canada equipment sales were up by 21% international sales up by 13%. that tells you a bit of the mix. that stock is off by $6.50 coming up, a lot more on "squawk. we will talk turkey, but more importantly we will talk about amazon's quest to take over the world. we'll tell you how the e-commerce giant plans to convince brick-and-mortar merchants to accept amazon pay here's a look at the pre market winners and losers in the dow. i know you want to leave me for schwab,

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welcome back to "squawk box. amazon is reportedly working to persuade brick-and-mortar merchants to accept amazon pay the "wall street journal" says the e-commerce giant is starting with gas stations, restaurants and other merchants who are not direct competitors amazon plans to offer lower payment processing fees or marketing services trying to get walmart, target to take that may be difficult >> it's going to be tough. the question is could you get starbucks, someone not in your -- you need a couple anchor tenants, if you will, so it becomes a thing. >> right so people will say i will use this as my payment plan of choice >> exactly >> big bounce. >> back ises i feg s >> back ises i fetarbucks i fee

compete with >> amazon competes with everybody. david faber reporting that they're bidding on the sports rights >> did you see what that did to some of the stocks yesterday >> yeah. it gets interesting quick. >> amazon up almost 20 that's a good bounce this morning. it was 1,000, then 2,000, 1,500. above and below 1,500 all day yesterday. >> one thing that is fantastic about this service is that if you ever used it, all you have to do is put in your amazon password if you do it online, you can buy anything on anybody's store. if you have done gogo, which we all hate on airplanes, you can just pay with your amazon, just click as if you're logging into amazon it goes on to your amazon bill >> i just hate using my password everywhere >> we have other news from tech. apple is reportedly in talks with the department of veterans affairs to provide portable electronic health records to

military vets. the "wall street journal" says the partnership will simplify hospital visits for these guys and gals and let apple access millions of new customers. earlier this year apple announced it was entering the electronics records feel letting pains store medical information. s this a bounce today in this stock which is down almost $9 after just -- look at that that looks like a double diamond slope. >> yeah. >> actually western area, not even -- i get. >> triple diamond. the entire country prepping for tomorrow'sthanksgiving feast, but more than 12% of the u.s. population does not have access to or can afford adequate nutrition on a daily basis here to explain food insecurity is the ceo of pro medica what does it mean to be food

insecure >> so, if you're food insecure in this country, 13% of households are food insecure 19% of households have children. single moms and children, 30% for a family of four they will miss 100 meals a month so you think the health implications of hunger and especially as we think about starting out with healthy moms, healthy kids, it has a major impact we just don't typically think of hunger as a major health issue in this country. >> we're talking about not having enough food or the right food >> probably both people who are food insecure have times during the month where they don't have resources to buy food. sometimes it's people that we don't expect sometimes it's people living at poverty or the poverty line, other times it's people making a decent wage, but they have other issues that are impacting their finances so these are clearly people who struggle every month finding food and finding the right food you get into all the other

issues that affect peoples way to acquire food, whether it's transportation or other things >> you talked about doctors prescribing food >> right over the last two years we have begun to screen. this is starting to happen across the united states right now in the united states, if you look at your individual health, 20% of your health is related to what happens clinically 80% has nothing to do with healthcare yet we spend $3 trillion, 17.8% of gdp on the way to 5 trillion. 20 plus percent of the gdp and we don't ask you if you go to a doctor's office about food, about your housing, about the security of your neighborhood. do you have utilities on so what's happening is people are starting to address these social issues. in our system we have screened 2 million people over the last two years, asking them questions about food insecurity. >> and that leads you to what conclusion what can you do about it what can we do about it?

>> you can provide short-term food needs and connect people to resources. a lot of times we find people don't know the implication is people can't do it, they're lazy or other issues in life, but clearly, especially in the senior population, they don't know how to access food embarrassed to access food >> what do you mean by that? >> seniors won't ask for help. they won't go out of their way they won't let people know in some of our screening we found people we didn't expect to screen positive for food insecurity screened positive >> i guess there's a lot of fresh vegetables, fresh foot healthy fish and meat, things like that. >> right >> there are things you won't scribe, i'm sure, right? >> food pharmacies we have food pharmacies. what happens is a person may not want to go to a food bank, but a doctor writes a prescription, they take that prescription and

they go to the food pharmacy they sit down with a dietitian, and they look at their medical condition. >> let me make it more complicated. who is supposed to pay for the food we have this news this morning that humana may be teaming up with walmart >> i thought it was walgreens. >> sorry, walgreens. should insurance pay for food? >> yes the reason why is we have a health plan. people go to food pharmacies, versus those that don't, it's a 15% reduction in costs on a monthly basis. so we're finding the social issues have a major impact, not only on your health and well-being but healthcare costs. so there's a belief the next wave will be addressing all these social issues in your life it kind of makes common sense when you think about your overall health and well-being. >> happy thanksgiving. >> thank you coming up, mark grant will join us with his take on the

rks. ride this week in the maet "squawk box" will be right back.

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welcome back, you're watching "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market site in times square ♪ today's top story, the global markets after yesterday's selloff. here to talk about this and other things is mark grant chief global strategist from b. riley fbr. happy thanksgiving, mark

you point out in some of your quick comments there's not been a lot of places to hide except maybe treasuries it's half over, three quarters of the way over. nobody knows is it getting to a point where investors should look at some stocks they might like and begin adding to positions there or continue to shy away from equities completely? >> joe, i think you have to be cautious right now i think having some cash on the sidelines is a good thing to do. i think the appreciation play is not where to be right now. we've seen the high-tech stocks, the f.a.n.g. stocks get hit hard been very tough to find places to hide. and even in the bond markets we've seen treasuries up a little bit recently, but we've seen credit, meaning corporate

bonds, mortgage bonds, high yield bonds widen out versus treasuries and i also think this is a rather large concern >> the points you make the return to normalcy the fed is trying to orchestrate might be losing because we don't know what normalcy is you point out that for better or worse you might disagree with what they're doing we have the divide in this country. but trump and the republican congress were trying to spur growth with deregulation, tax cuts what they think are pro-growth policies, and in your view, in much the same way president trump said, the fed was working against what they were trying to accomplish. but normally in a strong economy you do see rising rates. that can be a good thing why do you think this time around they should stop at such low levels >> certainly

i'll be happy to respond to that there's been no normalcy for the last ten years since the lehman bankruptcy the major central banks of the world created an economy the size of the united states around 21 trillion, but it's a free cash flow in excess of 1$100 trillion the move by the fed i think has been too aggressive to raise rates too quickly and too much and i think this is beginning to have a major negative impact on both the debt and the equity markets. i think chairman powell needs to reassess what's going on and to either stop for a while or just say, you know, we're going to relax our position. the fed is a major cause in the disruption of the bonds and the equity markets the fed was created by the federal reserve act of 1913 by

congress the fed is the central bank of the united states. the congress and the president have done everything possible with cutting back on regulations, with cutting back on taxes to grow the economy by any matrix you wanted to use they've succeeded. the fed has gone the opposite way by raising and raising rates. i think the prudent thing for the fed to do at this point is stop for a while >> i guess people would argue that's the time you raise rates when you can and that's the time -- they even say that about trying to deal with some of what they see as inequities in world trade. now is the time with it. now we see the downside to higher rates and trade wars. at this point it's 9% from highs in the dow it's not the end of the world. some people like things to just keep going up all the time you know, happy days are always here we know there's periods like

this i wonder if it's worth it. do you think because the debt level is so high now that 3% is like the new 7%? when you think about the debt service, when it goes up a little, when this much is outstanding, that takes a lot of cash flow to cover i guess >> right the cost to the united states government as interest rates rise, which the fed is causing goes up and up is the debt portion of the government's gdp keeps rising because of the higher and higher interest rates >> you wonder -- if there really -- there's arguments about where inflation is if you were confident that inflation wasn't a problem then you don't necessarily need to just do it sort of by -- because you're used to raising rates in a strong economy you should use inflation to measure where you set rates. there's no reason to try to choke things off before you need

to >> right that's exactly right you're 100% right on the other issues we have to deal with now are the tariff wars with china it's not talked about much, i'm concerned about italy. today is the day when the european commission is going to respond to italy's refusal to cut back on their budget demands. could be today at noon, could be they put it off until the finance minister's meeting on january 22nd but there's these head win head there in the economy, and there is no reason right now to be raising rates on a theoretical basis which also cuts into consumer spending, what people will spend at christmas in retail and so forth and so on if you just keep having this expectation of ever rising rates. >> just playing into what you

just mentioned the eu just opened disciplinary measures >> let me explain why i think this is so important you can look at italy and say they're way over there, it's in europe here we have an issue where if italy and the european union get into it with each other, which i suspect is going to happen, this could have a major impact upon the relationship between the dollar and the euro. and if it gets bad enough it could call into question the survival of the european union i don't think that's the tailwind i think there's some real question here. and then you have brexit going on at same time. we may see the dissolution of the european union as a result of all this. >> a lot of shows, they have the music planned before the show. we are very flexible here. >> i'm listening ♪ good-bye yellow brick road

>> that's for you. what the hell -- where did you get those things that's -- that is from the elton john collection, isn't it? >> mark, he's talking about your glasses. joe being joe. >> i'm trying to look in style here i'm doing my best. >> all right >> we like it. >> thank you >> all right all right. >> happy thanksgiving, mark. >> i immediately wanted this song >> i think those are transition lenses >> but they're big they're big. they're like -- >> man with a statement. >> coming up, when we return, a multimillion dollar thanksgiving golf challenge stay tuned you're watching "squawk" on cnbc

♪ ♪

♪ ♪ ♪ comfort. what we deliver by delivering.

time for the executive edge. attention all golf fans. tiger woods and phil mickelson made for tv one-on-one match will tee off friday at shadow

creek in las vegas it's a pay-per-view event with live mikes on the players and caddies as well. it's a winner take all event with a $9 million purse >> i'm willing to risk 100,000 that says i birdie the first hole that's how good i feel heading into this match. you don't have to take it. you don't have to take it at all. >> hold on hold on. hold on. so you think you can make birdie on the first hole? >> i know i'm going to make birdie on the first hole >> double it >> i mean, if that's an indication -- >> they've been talking so much trash about how this will be the easiest 9 million or 7 million they won >> in boxing, mike tyson would make $50 million in a night this isn't boxing. >> there are a lot of people criticizing it for other reasons. >> i love it >> are tiger and phil the two best golfers >> they're the two i want to

see. >> i know. they're iconic and legendary tiger may be close to top form phil played well -- >> 9 million if you win. is this a winner take all situation? >> that's the trash talk they've been building around >> when paceo was in the other -- even if you lose in boxing you get $20 million. >> maybe >> it's winner take all. >> it is >> a lot of these guys that money doesn't -- at this point, it's sort of -- >> this is for bragging rights >> they might bet away the entire purse >> phil, if you heard about his love for getting some action on the golf courses, it's legendary. i don't think tiger shies away a lot of these great athletes -- >> they're not allowed to do that during a tournament match, right? >> i'm sure not. >> gambling is not -- or do you think it goes on

what do you think? >> i don't know. i don't know i don't know if you would have a gentleman's bet with a buddy or something. i like the idea that he will bird date first hole i wonder if it's a drivable par 4. probably will birdie it. >> when we come back, a contrarian's call. we'll introduce you to a market watch every who went against the grain and predicted the brexit vote and donald trump election uld ory and what the markets wodo as a result find out what he's predicting in this current investing climate that's next on "squawk box." at&t provides edge-to-edge intelligence, covering virtually every part of your retail business. so that if your customer needs shoes, & he's got wide feet. & with edge-to-edge intelligence you've got near real time inventory updates. & he'll find the same shoes in your store that he found online he'll be one happy, very forgetful wide footed customer.

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welcome back, everybody. our next guest is committed to his calls nigo mirora is the founder of the aurora report. thank you for being here today i just read the report for the first time about a month ago and had been going through some things and found some interesting things you were pointing out in it you've got a lot of thoughts about technology lately and the idea of stocks being too much loved and too much over-owned. what do you think when it comes

to the faang stocks? >> well, becky, it's like a boat when everybody's on one side, boat often tips over that's where technology stocks were going into september. and the boat tipped over so fundamentals have not drastically changed. it's all sentiment and positioning. >> so what does that mean once we've seen the boat tip over and stocks come down this sharply? is that a time it's okay to get back in? or are we at a more normalized level of what to expect in long-term ownership? >> we're not at a normalized level. we're still over-positioned in technology and the biggest risk is that investors suffer from recent bias it is overweight technology. technology stocks always go to

the moon and all dips are buying opportunities. i do not see any evidence that investors have moved away from that bias. so in the short-term, the market is very oversold and we can have a very sharp rally but over the median term, there's a very high risk in technology stocks. ultimately a day will come when investors' conviction that technology stocks go to the moon, all dips are buying opportunities, that conviction will be shattered some day when that conviction gets shattered, there will be an undershoot and that will be an excellent opportunity to back up the truck and load up on technology stocks. >> we've seen a lot of pain already inflicted. a lot of these stocks down 30%

or more. but you're saying this is still not the time that people should stay to the sidelines for now? >> well, i do not say to get out of the market. i think they should hold good technology positions we'll take on some short-term trading positions on the long side in technology stocks. in october we took short-term positions. but we will stay underweight in technology until there's more pain >> okay. but just to put a fine point on it, you think there's going to be a little bit of a run on this and it's going to drop back down my question is if it drops back down, how low are we dropping and what's the signal to buy

>> well, it depends. so if you're looking at -- so technology stocks are all over the place. there are a lot of very expensive, very high multiple stocks in technology and i wouldn't be surprised if in 2019 some of them lose 50% of their value. >> 50% >> sure. wouldn't be surprised. google -- alphabet will not lose 50% of its value but, you know, some of the other high fliers could lose 50% of their value. i wouldn't be surprised. now, when would we buy it? we want to see pain when people are no longer convinced that technology stocks have a place to be. and then there's undershoot after that because people are slow to react. people are slow to take those losses and that undershoot will be the time to buy. and we see those undershoots periodically in the markets. >> nigam, thank you very much

for your time. we really appreciate it. >> thank you. coming up, complete coverage of the global rks temaetafr yesterday's and the day before's major selloff on wall street stay tuned

investors giving thanks after a rough two days for the markets, things are looking up oil equities in focus. we'll run you through what you need to know before you head out for the holiday feast. boeing in crisis management mode the stock feeling the pain what will the company's response to the airlines and the public we will hear from crisis management guru eric dezenhall and what's thanksgiving without a "squawk box" tradition? >> in other words, you really want to pack it.

>> the butterball turkey line will join us for the 11th straight year with tips and tricks so this doesn't happen to you. as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ live from the beating heart of business, new york, this is "squawk box. welcome back to "squawk box" this morning good morning we're live at the nasdaq market site in times square getting ready for thanksgiving we will talk lots of turkey. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with becky quick and joe kernen. take a look at equity futures. dow looks it would open up higher after tough days. dow looks it would open up 92 points higher. s&p 500 up about 11.5 points

we are watching three big stories this morning one, investors giving a little bit of thanks that the futures are in the green this morning. in just two days' time, the market has lost almost a thousand points. the latest straight ahead. two, mark zuckerberg says he has no plans to step down from the chairman's role despite calls to do so. his calls are minutes away and three, it is one of the busiest travel days of the year. hurry up and get on the roads. we will take you live for one of the busiest times of the year. gap reported quarterly earnings of 69 cents a share that was 1 cent ahead of where the street was the apparel retailer's revenue was also slightly above estimates. sales were flat and weaker than expected foot locker came in 3 cents ahead of adjusted estimates.

it's a slight beat for revenue as well. stock is up 14% though autodesk reported 2 cents above estimates. in above street forecasts as well then the company gave upbeat guidance up 8%. and take note technology people. up 8%. maybe autodesk can save the market this is one of those stories when the rival gos after each other. morgan stanley downgrading goldman sachs. they say while the stock looks cheap, they don't see any upside until the 1 mdb issue is resolved they have gone at it for many-a-year. but they do what they're supposed to do which is the classic traditional analysis but oftentimes i've always thought there's a somewhat

cordial approach to how they approach each other. let's just say >> okay. mylan labs receiving an fda warning letter earlier this month detailing concerns at its manufacturing facility in west virginia the drug maker said it is addressing the issues that were raised in that letter which include inadequate cleaning for manufacturing equipment. shares of mylan on this news down by about 1.2% mark zuckerberg is defending facebook this morning. this is amid a number of scandals and negative media reports. zuckerberg dismissed speculation about any leadership changes for now. >> so you are not stepping down as chairman? >> that's not the plan >> that's not the plan would anything change that >> i mean, like, eventually over time i'm not going to be doing this forever, but i certainly am not currently thinking that that makes sense. >> zuckerberg controls about 60% of facebook's voting power

meaning he would have to voluntarily step down from his role as chairman in his interview with cnn, zuckerberg also praised coo sheryl andberg a "wall street journal" article this week said zuckerberg blamed her and her team for many of the problems at facebook >> sheryl is a really important part of this company and is leading a lot of the efforts to address the biggest issues that we have. and she's been an important partner for me for ten years you know, i'm really proud of the work we've done together i hope that we work together for decades more to come >> and zuckerberg also defended facebook's actions in handling data privacy and misinformation campaigns around the presidential election in 2016. but he didn't address any specifics. facebook shares have lost about a quarter of their value this year and the dow losing nearly a thousand points in just two days joining us right now to talk

about where this is all headed, we should say the futures pointed to a higher open this morning. but charles campbell is here from mkm partners. paul hickey is also here today i imagine might be a bit of a light day in terms of volume a lot of people getting out of town but at the same time, and we do have these futures moving higher is this some kind of bottom or some kind of holiday respite >> it's probably a buy the dip reaction it's proven to be an effective tactic over so many times in the past in the last several years that i think investors are doing that we will see less volume today. >> is that the wise move or not? we just had a market guest on who said we've been preconditioned to that and until that gets worked out of our mind-set, you're not really going to see the pain that's necessary. >> we have been preconditioned and the economic data today i think is different from the way it's been the last several years. growth is slowing. revenue growth and earnings growth is decelerating growth of earnings in q3

exceeded q2 and q1 the trade sisks, there's a lot of pressure on buenos aires the end of the month probably wouldn't come through we have the stress debt, investment grade debt market under considerable pressure. levels and spreads at the highest in two years >> you laid out a bear case. what are you doing about it? >> our investors typically are global macro, many of them, and they look for the best opportunity where they can get alpha. they will look for overreactions where there's emotion -- >> and you're saying this week is an overreaction >> i'm saying they look for situations where there's an overreaction i don't think today's environment is an overreaction i think we're in a correction mode you know, we've been that way. and i think that's going to continue for some time i wouldn't be surprised. >> jim cramer made a bold call yesterday and effectively said if the fed raises rates, you will have wanted to sell all these stocks forget about buy on the dip, he

would have said sell on the dip. >> i don't know if he's still saying that. >> that's the biggest concern for the market right now the fed looking at backward looking data and tightening too aggressively whereas the fed the last ten years has been riding to the rescue of the market whenever there's been an issue and they say a first responder, it's more like the 1975 cover of "the daily news" fed to bulls drop dead because they're fearful that the fed isn't -- investors are fearful the fed isn't going to come to the rescue just the futures this morning, over the last ten weeks or so, we've seen multiple positive opens in the market that have gotten sold throughout the day >> i wouldn't read too much into wednesday futures. >> what do you read into larry kudlow's comments yesterday?

political, market based, where he if effectively said i don't see a recession. i read all this stuff, it's silly to me. >> so i think looking at u.s. economic data, we're seeing some signs of slowing in the actual data, we're looking at data certainly slowing. you know, employment data has held up very strong so far hopefully that does hold up. 3 which they've been starting t do in the last week. >> doesn't see, doesn't give hichi an indication we're approaching a recession any time soon. but he began a pivot, an

important pivot where he not only talked about the strength of the economy but for one of the first times acknowledged the head winds we got. the trade situation, the global growth slowdown. >> what's the christmas present? >> december's not the issue. it's what does he do next year do we have one in march and then pause? if we do, it's risk on again it's really in 2019's first, second, third quarter. december is already done >> are you looking for the commentary in december is that going to be the -- whatever is said in december, i imagine, is going to be either the coal in your stocking or the present. >> from now on all eight meetings in '19 plus december will have a press conference as well as a statement. economic projections are important. >> but is there anything the fed could say in december that could make investors think we're free and clear, there aren't going to be rate hikes in 2019. they're going to say we're data

dependent. >> they're going to keep their options open but they could indicate we see more of the head wind. something he hasn't done in previous statements. >> but a comment from the october -- in october where he said we're a long way from neutral. >> he walked that back last month. >> you don't want to see comments like that it may not be a fun christmas with that. >> but will it necessarily be a very merry one if he doesn't say that that's the absence of that >> it's just an overall tone of the speakers coming out. the fed speak monitor has taken a dovish tone in the last few weeks. >> one final question. we were looking at retail sales yesterday. we got earnings reports. what fear do you have that what's happening in the market, the volatility in the market is going to feed into the christmas holiday season meaning that people with stocks who felt really wealthy or were feeling at least pretty

confident may not when they get to the shopping mall do as much shopping >> business and consumer confidence can be negatively impacted by the prospect of a trade war that they think is imminent with china and stock market volatility. so we think -- >> it can be my question is will it be? >> we'll know after the g20. we think you'll have a 0.4% hit from a trade war 1% to china. but that's the first round effect second round effect from confidence could be far greate than that. it's a complicated nuanced story which suggests -- >> mike is still doing this. what happened to him mike used to be on all the time. remember him is he still with mkm >> oh, yeah. we see him all the time. writing all the time >> i don't remember any negative -- we have certain economists that have been -- like, one called for a recession in 2010.

we don't have them on anymore because we don't need contrari n contrarian we have negative strategists that would cut off their arm to come on that aren't allowed to come on because theydon't help investors. they're like charlatans. i don't know about darda do you remember him? >> of course i do. >> based on our trading flows, people seem to like him. >> want to thank both of you guys wishing you a happy thanksgiving >> thanks. >> you bet all right. read this with feeling, andrew >> you don't want to miss this it is a "squawk box" tradition we talk turkey and all the fixings with the butterball turkey talk line. tips to help you serve the perfect holiday feast. and you get to watch video of joe when he was younger, he was a younger man. >> but i don't look different. >> you guys can tell

we'll do a before and after. and later, world currencies and equities all in focus on this holiday shortened week a look at what you need to watch as we head into the final trading weeks of the year. stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" talking turkey on cnbc [ phone rings ] what?!

ready for christmas? no, it's way too early to be annoyed by christmas. you just need some holiday spirit! that's it! this feud just went mobile. with xfinity xfi you get the best wifi experience at home. and with xfinity mobile, you get the best wireless coverage for your phone. ...you're about to find out! you don't even know where i live... hello! see the grinch in theaters by saying "get grinch tickets" into your xfinity x1 voice remote. a guy just dropped this off. he-he-he-he.

♪ butterball wants you to host like a boss this thanksgiving. poultry company is in its 37th year helping holiday cooks from the live turkey talk line. wow. i'm always looking for tips to make the perfect turkey. i do a lot of things wrong here. >> all right thanksgiving my job is to prepare the perfect turkey happens every year first thing, cleanliness is next to godliness someone else is going to have to turn this off. all right. there we go. here's the turkey. here's my stuffing is this -- back here, right? pay no attention doctor's orders. might want to cough a little bit. whoa

that is cold that's cold. that's cold and wet. and you really want to stuff it in here. you really want to -- in other words, you really want to pack it okay hold on a second almost done here all right. voila. ready to go now. >> never been reshot i reshot it once and it was too politically correct. you know, everything i did there is wrong, just in case you're wondering. >> you don't want to pack it >> very loose. >> it won't cook through >> i stand by how cold it was. it was a shocker to me i did need some instructions you can't tell the front from the back really. >> you can't >> we're going to get some help. joining us now on the butterball turkey talk line, codirector susan smith from naperville

where experts are standing by. i think a lot about this because we do it every year. i'm not going to do the latest, like, turducken questions. and i'm not going to do the deep fried thing and where do you do it so -- safety issues that come with deep frying i want to go back to basics, if we can, today. can we do that there are things people do wrong. and number one, i'm going to ask you about, you buy them frozen right? if you haven't thawed this yet, you're too late. you got to start thawing this thing like a week ago. >> well, good morning. and, you know, you're not too late you can still thaw your turkey you still have all day today you're going to take that turkey, put it upside down in your kitchen sink. completely cover it with cold water. change that water every 30 minutes. and that's going to be thawed and ready to go tomorrow in fact, if you have an alexa by

you, you can simply ask alexa, say ask butterball how do i thaw my turkey. you'll get your answers right there. >> i thought for every pound and a half it took a day or so one day for every four pounds of turkey that's not true. there are some tricks you can use? >> there are some tricks so that's in the refrigerator. one day for every four pounds. but the cold water is your quick method it takes 30 minutes per pound. so you have time >> now, we don't want this to happen people don't know temperature or how long everybody has seen this and it's everybody's greatest fear from the national lampoon from the christmas vacation thanksgiving. but we don't want this to happen and that's where -- i don't even know how they filmed that. where they -- you know, actually, this is the part where they're trying to eat it and it got a little bit dry >> looks like my house >> we have the -- what happened.

i think we need to show what they're trying to eat here if you cook it too long, it can be a problem in terms of when it explodes some of the internal organs are still there. this might be it see? that's -- yeah so how long, number one? how long do you cook and at what temperature? whatst the optim what's the optimal temperature >> the temperature for the oven is 325 degrees really there's a time frame based on what time turkey you have a 15 to 16 pound turkey not stuffed is three and a half hours. but the best thing is your meat thermometer. it should read 180 in your thigh, that's the dark meat. 170 in the center of the breast. and if you stuff your turkey, make sure you check the center of that stuffing that should be 165 you know your turkey's done.

>> do you have a diagram of where the thigh is for people? never mind they probably -- i might need -- >> you know, we actually do. go to butterball.com there'll be some how-to videos >> i can find my own, i think. >> tips for dummies. >> how much do you need? what size turkey do you need depending how many people you got? what's the ratio >> we recommend up to two pound per person that gives you generous servings but great leftovers so all enjoy for the next few days. one important rule that we always say is get those leftovers within two hours into your refrigerator. slice it down, put it in containers they're good in your refrigerator for another two to three days. >> what about stuffing i think is the best -- one of my favorite things to have. although it's really fattening but does it have to be -- it doesn't need to be in the turkey, right? >> no. >> is it better if it sucks up

the turkey juices, do you think? >> it's personal preference. you know we always stuff our turkey at home we stuff it right before you put it in the oven or you can -- >> prepare it the night before but don't put it in the night before because it can fester or something. are you going to do turducken. deep fried >> i want to know what's the hot new crazy way? >> you know, we get a lot of deep fry questions it's a great way to prepare your turkeys. it's really fast three to four minutes per pound. make sure that turkey, though, is really dry. get some paper towels. pat it dry on the inside as well as the outside and give us a call here at 1-800-butterball we will ensure you host like a boss this year and answer all your questions >> host like a boss. >> host like a boss. all right. you know, most people do it

again at christmastime during the holidays. so you can't know too much about this, sue. thank you. once again how many of these hits are you going to do of these today like 50? >> you know, we're busy. we're taking calls as you can probably see behind us so happy thanksgiving. we appreciate it >> okay. sue smith, butterball turkey talk line. happy thanksgiving >> may be one of her more memorable interviews today >> probably. we told you about the turkey for thanksgiving we're going to now talk about stocks to be thankful for. that's when "squawk box" comes right back broke my personal record. aflac!? no-good break. gooood break. i'm so sorry we can't make your barbecue. i'm just sick about it. aflac!? different kind of sick.

if i can't work after surgery, how am i gonna pay my rent? all these bills? aflac! oh, aflac! and they pay you cash in just one day. see how aflac helps cover everyday expenses at aflac.com. for each job exxonmobil creates, many more are created in the community. because energy touches so many industries, it supports 10 million u.s. jobs.

now the answer to aflac's trivia question. which president refused to declare thanksgiving a holiday the answer, thomas jefferson ♪ the overall market has had a pretty tough two-month period. there are some stocks to be thankful for these are the returns over the past month comcast up about 2%.

would have been up about 6% or 7% -- >> until yesterday >> thanks, david faber, for that report >> pepsi up 5% and intel up 8%. beauty supply company that forgot the "r," ulta up 11%. starbucks up 14% and yes, tesla, up 33% for -- but that was from -- had some issues you know, it's kind of a rebound more than a new market cap gain. all right. a lot more coming up on "squawk box" this morning. you don't want to miss it. we're going to talk oil, equities, and the mighty dollar. we'll talk about whether it's mighty or not. our trading block standing by ahead to talk all these things >> tesla was up for the year i thought the same thing when i saw it >> take a quick look at the futures before the head to the break. dow about 120 points we're back in a moment

♪

good morning, everybody. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. among the stories front and center this morning, mortgage applications fell by a tenth of a percent last week. that's according to new figures from the mortgage bankers association. new purchase applications rose during the week but refinancing activity plunged by 5% to the lowest level in nearly 18 years. the average 30-year mortgage rate fell to 5.16% nissan chairman carlos ghosn will be detained for another ten days following his arrest earlier this week for allegedly misusing company assets. that's according to japanese media reports. nissan's board of directors is meeting today to decide if it will fire ghosn who is also chief executive at renault and we'll get two key reports in an hour's time.

economists think initial jobless claims declined last week. jobless claims, of course, out a day early because of the thanksgiving day holiday tomorrow and fears of a slowing economy keeping the markets on edge, but is it too early to mention the "r" word woo. we've been talking about the "r" word already steve liesman joining us now >> the traders and economists seem to agree the economy will slow next year but depending what signal they're sending, they disagree on how serious the slowdown will be let's take a look at the year that was we did 2.2% in the first quarter. we ramped up to 4.2% in the third quarter. fourth quarter running 3.5%. slowing to 2.8% according to to our update and i did a question look and came up with the average forecast next year 2.3% now rb remember that number. first i want to tell you what

jpmorgan is saying about next year i quote here fiscal, monetary, and trade policies all will become either less supportive or more restrictive. we see the fed needing to exert modest restraint on growth, hiking four times to 2.25% okay so cbo potential, remember, they haven't changed it still an economy that's supposed to grow just 1.8 the fed looking for 2.5, they see the economy growing above potential. action economics, 3. and there's goldman and jpmorgan at 1.9 back down to potential. which you could consider a victory or a defeat if you think it's going to be 3%. moving on here, i want to look at one more thing here take a look here quick one more chart i guess they can't move the screen so we're going to go on and -- >> there it is >> there it is there goldman sachs saying look at all

significant stock market declines since 1994. we find the fed responds with more -- moving on. i guess not. such as credit spreads also deteriorate -- >> like following one of the trump tweets >> so they don't see the fed coming to the rescue here. >> one thing i wanted to ask you about, the atlanta fed cutting its fourth quarter outlook to 2.5%, the atlanta fed were the ones looking for hotter growth >> in the fourth quarter i don't know if -- they were like 2.75%, i think. >> they cut it yesterday >> i'm not quite sure why it is so captivated and captured the market's attention >> i thought you liked it now that it was way down. >> it's less accurate than our rapid update by several tenths of a basis point >> and where are you >> 2.8% right now. >> now i like yours more >> steve sticks with the

numbers. >> what we do is -- it's 10 or 12 tracks forecasts we put together if there was a single forecast that put -- >> wisdom of crowds? we do the opposite of crowds. >> more can be better. especially if there's not a single model >> it's like the olympics model. >> did you see the comments from larry kudlow about the potential for a recession yesterday? >> yeah. >> he effectively says he doesn't understand it. >> i agree with larry. it'd be hard -- look i remember sort of 2000 the economy kind of stopped on a dime i remember calling up -- i talked to the president of kodak at that moment and he said, i think the lead of my story was something like cameras stop clicking around the world all at the same time but in general that's the aberration you don't usually stop on a dime we have a lot of fiscal stimulus still in training. they appropriate in 2018 spend in 2019.

you still have a federal reserve policy i think the market may have got to a point where it was ahead of itself on thinking that the 3% continues. and i'd say 2.5% is not a bad bet for next year. >> thank you, sir. >> pleasure. all right. let's get to our trading block as it's called on oil. john kilduff mark chandler. and talking equities, scott nation i'm just going to go -- start here with you, mark, on this one. yesterday i was looking for -- >> a reason, right >> no. i was looking for the dollar to get weaker or to get stronger yesterday because people were rushing. and it didn't. i thought it was going to be down at -- i don't know. it ended at 114 against the you're row how do we gauge what's happening here >> yeah.

bond yields easing you expect the dollar to be weaker i think the dollar showed itself yesterday to be the safe haven yesterday. people have an alternative to the stock market cash at home >> it was weird. i thought it'd be like 112 or something. and that's part of the problem the market sells off, the dollar gets stronger, we worry more about exports. right? >> i think the biggest problem with exports is the trade war. it's not really about the dollar right now. part of the problem is the third and fourth biggest economies in the world contracted in q3 the japanese economy contracted. but i think the safe haven rule is important stock markets bouncing back today. dollar is a bit softer >> one of the worst routes for oil in awhile, kilduff and if we knew, you know, like a year from now if we knew what we know then now, we'd know more about the supply versus demand dynamic. i really wish i knew it was all

supply because if it is, you know, we were just talking about recessions and kudlow and everything else, if we knew there was a big slowdown, it would explain why oil fell off a cliff. if it was just supply and making staying allies with saudi arabia and they owe us now because we're not doing anything in terms of sanctions against -- >> they owe us now >> i'd say so. >> how does that work? >> they don't cut production. >> they were getting rather perturbed about the iran sanctions waivers which they came to the rescue of by putting more oil on the market they and the russians in particular and then the constant push now that was becoming the punish on mohammed bin salman was not sitting well with them and they were firing up or readying a production cut of upwards of 1.5 million barrels a day at the next opec meeting in a couple of weeks. our relationship with them

appears to be bought and paid for now. president trump is helping to keep a lid on prices we have tripped into an over-supplied market once again. >> you don't think it's anything to do with the fears of a global slowdown >> it's part of it >> how much of it? >> these trade wars aren't what it's cracked up to be. >> it's not 50/50 supply demand >> the global slowdown at about 30% because of the selloff because, again, the supply numbers we know, demand is still strong we are still pushing on 100 million barrels a day. the chinese are doing everything they can to spur their economy which is fossil fuel intensive so that should put some support on that side of the ledger under prices but u.s. production is nearing 12 million barrels a day now we have soared in terms of production our exports are soaring. you'll hear more about us exporting 3.5 million barrels a

day next year as more and more pipeline projects and other export facilities come online. so we -- the u.s. has really rocked the boat. president trump noted we're the largest in the world in his statement yesterday. and that's accurate. >> all right scott nation, i just happened to see boeing which -- that was pretty amazing yesterday it sort of rallied off its lows by 20 points but now you got deere today. deere missed i don't know if that's tariff related or growth related or what but what do you think as the day goes on? we're up triple digits this morning. does the market hold onto those slight gains we're seeing? >> i think -- joe, i think it depends on crude oil i think the equity market has gotten crude oil completely wrong. i would disagree our equity markets think what's going on in crude oil is 100% demand and i think it's 100% supply for all the reasons particularly the waivers and if the problem for -- if the

economy around the world is really slowing down, we would see in copper prices and copper prices haven't fallen like crude oil prices have fallen since july they are sideways to slightly higher. and if what was going on around the world was a slowdown and what is going -- given what's going on also in the housing market, you would expect copper to fall off the cliff. that's just not what has happened i think in the equity markets here, it's all about this unending tariff battle if you look at stocks that really shouldn't be affected by the tariff battle like financials, xlf is unchanged over the past 52 weeks pretty much what the stock market has done. >> go ahead. >> go ahead, becky >> scott, i hear what you're saying i just wonder if i'd listen to the copper market over all of these other markets. i realize tlsh a lot of cross currents, but when you start hearing about housing, you start thinking about what jim cramer's been saying with the fed raises

rates, there's a lot of concerning things that you're seeing pop up all over the place. and it's a very difficult time to try and adjust all of this. i heard what larry kudlow said yesterday. it sounded an awful lot like what we heard from big bank ceos there's not one thing i look at and say, okay. this makes me feel really good about everything because i can trust this market over all the other signs i see. >> i'm not saying copper makes me feel good what it says to me is the problem is not global growth as expressed by the price of crude oil. for example, just health care. health care is up 10% over the last 52 weeks. >> i want to ask chandler one more thing let's not focus on the dollar for a minute are you seeing anything about the pound and what it means for brexit or italy and what's happening -- i mean, can you tell anything from the individual currencies over there about what to expect for some of these other hot spots? >> no, i do say there's a lot of uncertainty. there's a lot of stories that aren't completed yet they're in the middle of them.

china, the trade tensions. all this i think leads to higher volatility higher volatility in the stock market means lower prices. volatility in the currency markets typically is associated with large moves, large swings we're seeing. >> do you have a trade if i were allowed to do it or call the cayman islands, what's your best trade? >> i'm still long the dollar >> and not going to catch up >> ecb can't catch up. >> what do you think of bitcoin? what does that say about where we are does it say anything >> i think it's embarrassing to talk about bitcoin when talking about the currencies there's so much money circulating. people have gone from the bitcoins, cybercurrency craze to the pot craze. i think we're searching for places to put our money. >> you think this is going to zero or you think this is going to the moon >> i'mmore on the downside >> still >> still on the downside i just don't think -- >> is there a number that makes any sense to you or you say the

whole thing doesn't make sense >> the reason we have some belief in value. >> can i say something before we go >> we got the durable goods report coming up listen for when rick says the nondefense capital goods ex-aircraft. that's business spending that was missing from the third quarter. if you want to know what happens next, does the administration's forecast that you have the capital spending boom begin to kick in. the numbers up 18%, right? >> it was the international up 13%. >> international was up? >> but it was below the expectations for what people were talking about >> i know. but i'm saying double digit gains in tractor sales is good, no. >> anyway, the companies were happy. if you look at the stock reaction, they're saying hold on. >> to wrap all this together because what's happening in the

oil patches critical of what's happening in business investment we want to see if that's going to come off. i don't know in america today are high oil prices good for the economy or bad with all of the exports we do and all the production we do and all the communities relying on it so it's a much different than how it used to be ten years ago. >> thanks again to john kilduff. marc chandler and scott nation. it's his name. i think nations is smart he makes it -- >> they're begging us to go. >> we got to go. >> thanks, you guys. when we come back, biggest travel day of the year is here millions ready to take to the roads and to the sky to visit loved ones and family.

we have an update on what to expect before you head to the airports i'll give you a hint, lots of traffic. plus boeing in crisis management mode what will the impact be on the company and on management? we're going to talk about that with crisis management guru dezenhall. "squawk box" will be right back. this is a tomato you can track from farm, to pot, to jar, to table. and serve with confidence that it's safe. this is a diamond you can follow from mine to finger, and trust it never fell into the wrong hands. ♪ ♪ this is a shipment transferred two hundred times, transparently tracked from port to port. this is the ibm blockchain, built for smarter business. built to run on the ibm cloud.

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welcome back, everybody. millions of americans will be trying to get a jump on their thanksgiving travel today and that means phil lebeau is standing by at an airport for us today. how are the lines so far >> it's actually very calm here so far today at o'hare that's not surprising. we're seeing no major storms around the country it should be a rather orderly day in terms of air travel around the u.s let me give you a sense of what it looks like here this is typical for a wednesday morning. in terms of the number of people who are going to be flying for what they call the thanksgiving travel holiday which is earlier this week to early next week, more than 30 million people, that is a record according to airlines for america yes, there are more flights, but the planes are also packed closer to capacity over the next

few days and you are not imagining it if you are checking a bag, you will see higher bag fees you'll also pay more for other ancillary fees the good news if you're traveling is airfares still remain relatively low. yes, they have ticked up about 4% or 5% over the last six or seven weeks. but right now the average domestic airfare around $222 the last several weeks have been good in what's happening with jet fuel prices. they have been declined. that will help the bottom line with fourth quarter numbers they're posting. that's why you're seeing the airline stocks which typically rally between the end of september and the end of the year, it's like clock work you will see them move higher. yeah, they've plateaued a little bit as the market has come under pressure over the last several days, but overall for the airlines, this will be a very profitable thanksgiving holiday as really close to 30 million

people will be taking a flight over the 10 to12 day period they call the thanksgiving travel weekend back to you. >> okay. i just was wondering, phil, what happened -- were you hearing about boeing, things going on throughout the session yesterday? it had 296 did you see it it was down 25 points. it closed down three were there things swirling around about the conference call >> yeah. it was strange to see the stock pick back up >> nobody's sure exactly why the stock moved higher there was not a specific catalyst yesterday during the day. there was going to be a conference call between some of the boeing executives, the technical people at boeing as well as with the airlines. the operators of the 737 max 8

but boeing is quick to point out we're in constant contact with all of the companies, all of the airlines that fly the max 8. again, this all boils down to your perspective boeing says all of the software changes, what few software changes there were with the max 8 have been clearly stated in the flight operation manuals there are some airlines saying wait a second. may have been in the manual, but nobody told us specifically about certain changes. and that really is what it boils down to. >> it's crazy. that is -- that price is 10% higher than the lows yesterday that we just looked at >> yeah. >> 30 points higher. i don't know >> nice move >> stay with us. let's talk a little bit more about that for that we're going to bring in our next guest eric dezenhall is the ceo of dezenhall resources and he joins us from washington

obviously talk around this is much more pronounced, much more of a huge issue because of that plane crash that people are now wondering if this had something to do with that. that makes it a tougher environment for boeing to talk through. >> whenever you're deal with a safety related crisis, it comes down to two questions. are people going to be okay and what are you doing about it? those are the two holy grail questions. i think what you always have to look at is diagnostically. what type of crisis is this? we always call these thing pr crises, but they're not necessarily pr crises first. in other words, what we seem to be dealing with is a software issue. and the challenge with something technical is who do you explain that to? this is not the kind of thing that lends itself to getting on mass national television and educating people about software anti-stall technology. >> you don't need to

you need to make sure the pilots know. >> that's right, however, a lot of the criticism has been this emotionally resonant idea it's not in the user manual which the company has denied what the focus has to be is the customers and what they announced yesterday, what boeing announced yesterday is that the focus is going to be scheduling these meetings to clar fify howo deal with the technology i think that is the right thing to do. because you're not -- any type of thing where you're trying to educate technology to broader audiences is simply going to fail and the objective in something like this is not to convince the news media that you are handling the crisis well because no offense, they never will >> very quickly, we have had one of the pilots on who was offering criticism of boeing he flies these planes, the 737 max. even in his criticism, he was fairly restrained. his main points were that people should feel safe flying on these planes and that he felt very

safe flying these planes himself and putting his family on this plane. he thinks things will be clarified from here. >> nothing is more reassuring than a pilot that knows what they're talking about giving people comfort look, i'm a terrible flier one of the things that gives me the most confidence is when someone gets on the radio in an airplane and says, yeah, we're going to have some turbulence but we're expecting it and we know how to handle it. if you want to instill confidence, nobody does that better than a seasoned pilot it's just that a seasoned pilot doesn't have to explain the technology they have to simply convey we know we're on top of it, we know what we're doing >> eric, thank you very much for joining us today eric dezenhall phil, we're going to see a lot of you today thank you. we'll check back in soon when we come back, economic data that will move the markets. today we have durable goods and jobless claims remember they moved up a day for the holiday. we'll get the reaction and much more

plus look at the futures at this hour we've been building for the morning. still nowhere near making up the ground we lost monday and tuesday. but right now dow implied up 163. we'll be right back. ♪ introducing e*trade personalized investments professionally managed portfolios customized to help meet your financial goals. you'll know what you're invested in and how it's performing. so you can spend more time floating about on your inflatable swan. [ding]

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global market alert. the dow looks to rebound at the open after this week's worldwide route. are consumers ready to shop or drop? >> fruit spray >> sure. >> we will talk retail as we enter what should be the most wonderful time of the year for the sector plus, planes, trains, and automobiles. >> i'm going to drive you to wichita to catch a train >> we'd appreciate it. >> train don't run out of wichita. >> huh >> lessen you're a hog or cattle >> as americans travel to grandmother's house this holiday, we'll talk about the biggest challenges for the industry and the best opportunities for investors. the final hour of "squawk box" hits the road right now. ♪

live from the most powerful city in the world, new york, this is "squawk box. >> good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square. another great -- i'd like to do what that guy does, but -- >> those aren't pillows. >> but did you see the guy where he just for no reason he makes that noise you did it i'm not going to do it you weren't on camera. >> i wasn't on camera. >> becky quick who just went -- and andrew who -- >> you did it. >> i did to show what you did though. futures right now as boeing has really recovered again today after a bounceback yesterday some of this is boeing up about seven points. which is equivalent to 50 dow points that was the point i made yesterday.

if boeing had closed on its lows yesterday, the dow would have been down about 700. >> we were down 650 at the lows. >> instead of 550. yeah treasury yields this morning are below 3.1% 3.08% on the 10-year and president trump tweeting just a few minutes ago oil prices getting lower great. like a big tax cut for america and the world. enjoy $54. it was just $82. thank you to saudi arabia but let's go lower it is a different world. in the old day ifs we bought all of our oil from saudi arabia, there's no doubt that $30 oil is what we wanted and now we're producing 12 million barrels a day or whatever, it's really -- it's mixed. there are good things about lower oil and there are bad things about lower oil the saudis want it at $80. we'll see if they wait a couple months before they try to get it

back there >> but i think there are some people who will look at that tweet today especially after the tweet or comments yesterday about khashoggi and raise some questions about -- i mean, people have. >> when has he tweeted where people haven't raised questions about something? and when do we finally get tired of raising questions about every single tweet i'm already tired. you can -- you know. but you're going to see it he says exactly what he means on these tweets and half the country is going to just go, oh, my god, i need to move and the other half is going to go, god, i'm glad someone says what they're actually feeling. >> you know i wish that he had come out a little bit more strongly about how he could have dealt with the khashoggi matter. we were just saying during commercial break, i went to this journalist committee last night. and more journalists have been killed in the past year than in many, many years i think there would have been an opportunity to whether you call it virtue signaling or at least

come out in a more forceful way. >> i would say it's probably not half the country either way. because there are a lot of republicans who voted for him who support him who said they would rather he not take the same tact with some of this stuff. >> i don't know about the polls either let's tell you about some of today's other top corporate movers deere shares under pressure this morning. the heavy equipment maker's revenue falling short of estimates. sales did improve from a year ago thanks to the strengthened farm and construction markets. that's why you see the stock at this point down by about 2.5%. that's off the lows. we saw earlier this morning when the stock was down by more than 4.5% b.j. wholesale club also posting better than expected results after they gave upbeat guidance for the quarter as well you talk about the winners and losers in retail we have seen them out by no -- this quarter, no exception to what we've seen over the last four to five quarters in those

retailers. also, let's talk about walgreens and humana they are in preliminary talks to take part in each other's companies. they already have a partnership related to serving senior citizens walgreens up by about 0.5% a couple of stocks to watch this morning this one is fun in a tit for tat battle between two banks goldman sachs downgraded at morgan stanley morgan stanley saying we got a problem with goldman sax also cutting on the stock from $291 morgan stanley cites the risks most importantly to goldman stemming from the 1 mdb investigation. saying it doesn't know what the legal implications of that situation might ultimately turn out. separately, lowe's downgraded to hold from buy at stifel nickl s

nicklaus and listen to this one amazon wants to persuade brick and mortar retailers to accept its amazon pay service as the chosen way to pay. "the wall street journal" saying the tech giant is beginning that effort with gas stations, restaurants, and other merchants that don't compete with it directly but if you can get a real foothold in that market, it gets very interesting very, very quickly. speaking of amazon, 39 points trading higher today. speaking of amazon, a number of stocks are up this morning after getting hard hit in the last week check out the names of these other tech stocks like nvidia up 4% salesforce up 2.3% netflix also trading higher 2.6% and adobe as well all trading higher so joining us now j.j. kinahan

at td ameritrade and cnbc commentator mike santoli what, is uber broken what happened? >> i crossed right underneath the nasdaq there on the way to the stock exchange i'm in at 9:00 here. >> oh, you are >> he's doing double duty. >> okay, i guess >> had to squeeze this in. >> you need to be there right at 9:00 it's 8:07. >> pretty much >> if you came here, you couldn't have made it down there? >> probably not. >> you know, cutting it a little too close. >> traffic >> all right all right. >> we just always want to be your first love. we're jealous today, mike. >> so i will say i saw something. i don't know what to hope for with the vix that's what i always talk to you about, j.j but we have not matched the highs from earlier in this correction and yesterday we only got to -- what'd we get? we got above 22, but we didn't get to 23 or 24 yesterday, did we >> we got just above 23 yesterday, joe

but to your point in october, you know, we got to 26 so i think what you're seeing is a real calmness. it's amazing to me at how calm this selloff has been. it's more of a repricing of where everything, perhaps, should be based on next year's earnings than a real, you know, i have to dump everything. i think some of the people who are more bearish will say we will continue to go down until we have the sort of pure flush i don't think it does right now, joe, to be honest with you we'll see what happens with some of this tariff talk at g20 because i think that's really -- a lot of people talk about rates, et cetera, i think it's more about what happens with tariffs going into next year and some assurety one way or the other. you heard some talk on earnings about what that will mean for companies for next year which we hadn't really heard much before this i think that's truly the wild card that everybody's going to

try to sort out for the next couple weeks >> what do you think, santoli? that's one view on the vix do you think we need new highs in the vix that's usually the final flush or something or i don't know. what do you think? >> i would say not necessarily new absolute highs here's why we've been in this for two months and usually if you've really wanted to aggressively hedge, you've had two months to do it as the market's going down you're not buying as aggressively with that you haven't hit new low levels to me it's not consistent with the idea that we're retesting the lows i agree you didn't get one of these, but yesterday was pretty sloppy i think you got disorderly yesterday which is good if you're look farg sign of more intense selling pressure it also felt like people trying to get the selling out of the way before the quasi-holiday days started it makes sense to have some

relief today no news on kohl's. just dumping the retailers in the past few days you've seen people getting out of the stocks they previously were very certain about fundamentally. strong, domestic, consumer was one of those stories apple had been one of those stories and all the other faang names you mentioned. here's what i'm looking for today. apple, you got this news about big cuts confirming what we had the negativity about smart phones apple looking to bounce today. goldman indicated to bounce on the downgrade. so those things tell you the people who are most motivated to sell have done so already. that's tentatively after the s&p goes down 90 points in two days, an excuse. >> i like how you said that. bouncing on the downgrade. >> yeah. that's the way it goes those are the two most important stocks not just in the dow but maybe in the market at the moment >> did you watch yesterday, mike i mean, i was, you know, clutching at any straws as to

try to keep from drowning. that's mixing metaphors. but when facebook turned positive and google was sharply positive then boeing came back. it almost looked like -- i don't know some people put in some buy orders finally at one point yesterday. i don't know whether we just head right back down, i guess. i was taking solace on those names. >> the stuff that looked overdone and the other thing i would point to again is the home builders they were up yesterday it's not -- you've not had good housing news so, you know, those are the things you do grasp at the complexion of a market that's down a lot. we didn't repeal the idea that the thanksgiving to the year end period tends to be more positive even in weak markets, you tend to have a chance to get them higher at some point along the way there. >> all right any final things to watch for, j.j., that will give us some guidance as to where we are in

this whole process and, you know, whether this is -- it the beginning of a bigger selloff or is it sort of the end of a correction >> well, i think it's more of a range we may be in for awhile until the end of the year. i do think as mike said, we have an opportunity to rally a bit. i don't see it being a huge significant rally unless we come out and say tariffs are completely settled and everybody's sort of happy again. that would be the one sort of spring that could send us a lot higher the one thing i will say to mike's point, it's not surprising to me we're seeing some rebound today as i think particularly for the first hour and a half you'll see some volume and then we sort of, you know, just peter out for the rest of the day. but also since i think people are just in the take risk off mode going into a long weekend as much as they possibly can with a lot of names they've shorted or whatever the last few days, they'll do that. last thing i'll say, i think the consumer staples industry has been the most interesting one to

watch. that's where we've done well over this selloff. because people are looking for, you know, dividend paying stocks as you said. we're still under 3.1 but more blue chip they think can out perform the market >> i've held onto my ge because of that nice dividend. oh, wait so santoli, what are you -- you're doing how many hours of "squawk on the street" you're anchor, right >> just the one at 9:00 today. >> you got to do "closing bell" again? do you know? >> an hour of that at the end of the day, yeah. >> you do? i'm going to send you my agent's name i mean, do you have one right now? >> you know, somebody whispers in i hmy ear. >> you do? >> what i love having gone to tv you can work a nine-hour day, people think you're a herhero it's what people in the real world do all the time. >> there you go. mike, i'm with you >> there you go, andrew.

>> i said that when i was on "fast money. i work half days 12 hours no, i don't. but anyway thank you, j.j. kinahan from td ameritrade. >> happy thanksgiving, guys. >> you too, j. jchlj. and you, too, mike iron mike is one we haven't used right? >> the mechanical pitching machine? sure >> iron mike no, iron mike tyson. he bit someone's ear off though. >> that was him. right before the tattoos all over the face. >> who hasn't, though, at some point? >> i think i want to sit further this way when we comeac bk, would peter navarro's dinner plans be impacting the market we'll have that story next [ phone rings ] what?!

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how much the contribution from beauing is and it may be somewhat related to this. >> let's talk about this because this just crossed literally within the last hour it might have an impact on the futures this morning the south china morning post reporting that peter navarro will not be on the guest list when president trump meets with his chinese counterpart xi jingping on december 1st and when, in fact, we may or may not strike a deal related to all these tariffs. steve liesman is here taking a look at that story own what the implications of a navarro or sense might be to some type of deal being struck. >> i want to lead with a column we had a couple days ago on cnbc what we called deal breaker. navarro is back in his white house closet and the tale of the tape on this is peter navarro came out and made comments about how wall

street shot up when it comes to trade. we had larry on and i wish we had that tape of what larry said >> yeah. that's where -- he was not off the reservation. >> yeah. well, it was extraordinary for a white house official to be talking about another. >> meaning the president clearly had that on that trump put him in the closet. and now the south china morning post which is a fairly reliable asian newspaper saying he will be excluded from a dinner. >> by the way, owned by jack ma. >> and we have not confirmed this i sent a couple e-mails out to white house sources to see if they'll confirm this but it was part as joe suggested as maybe there were other things happening of the market going up i'm not surprised by this. because i think one of the things we talk about is the administration has failed to convince the market of the longer term upside of its trade

position and policy. when it looks like there will be fewer tariffs when china and the u.s. look like they're closer together, the market rallies when these tariffs come back on, the market sinks. >> but don't you believe the president at least in terms of things he has said has recognized or suggested that these might be short -- the market is too short-term on this and he's trying to create a much longer term, broader -- and maybe there's a cost to doing that i'm not saying it's the right decision >> i know what the president thinks about this. my point i said earlier i stand by which is he failed to convince the market of the long-term benefit of this. there is very few economists it's always been unclear to me what they're aiming for here if the idea is to get china to exceed to soom of our demands when it comes to technology, then i a short-term tariff

battle here. but when you talk to peter navarr navarro, they talk about bringing back manufacturing to the u.s. >> and that's not happening. >> forget that not happening, it's not a short-term venture. it's a long-term venture if you want to take these things that are made in china and bring them back to the u.s., it doesn't happen overnight it doesn't happen in a six-month period it's a multi-year process. if that's the case, then these tariffs would be there for a long time. and that's one of the reasons, maybe, why the market has trouble seeing the economic benefit ultimately in the u.s. here >> we've been looking at a couple of the stocks in terms of the way the futures have moved are we making a decision here about how the markets are looking at this? >> mike santoli just talked about apple being a big one. and goldman. but if you look at boeing this morning, it's indicated higher home depot and you can probably stretch all three of those stocks to having some impact on -- or the trade talks have

been a direct impact on those. boeing's been the one coming around the most. >> people have talked about navarro being put away in the closet >> happened before, you know >> it's happened before. do you think he's moving to a position where he will be banished, if you will? the president has talked a lot about sort of remaking his cabinet, remaking the advisers that are around the hoop >> did you hear the president yesterday when he talked about trade? he said, we're going to have dinner with china. they want to make a deal even if that's not what they're saying and in the next breath he said i could place these tariffs on, these 25% tariffs. i will tell you a lot of analysts are very scared of this next round of tariffs. they think it's the one that will bite. they think we've been able to kind couof avoid this. i think the president has gone back and forth on this he has a long standing history

of believing in tariffs and worrying about the trade deficit. look, i know that some advisers go to the president and say, look, you're trying to do something good here with business investment and growth in this country. and that these tariffs work against that and i think my understanding is he gets that for part of the day and part he feels like we need to put these tariffs on and it's good for the economy >> i also wonder how much the fed reins him in too maybe he figures you can't have two head winds are such stiff head winds >> so he should go easier on tariffs? that's an interesting way to think of it. >> wilbur ross is on the list and he's actually been closer more recently on the sort of navarro -- >> he's been very tariffy. >> very tariffy. >> wilbur always has. >> he's staying. >> not only that, he's on the dinner list. >> do you feel he's more of a soldier in this regard so he's

backing it >> wilbur is the guy who's been an investor in steel companies for a long time. >> i don't think in his dna -- right. i don't think in his dna, wilbur is a protectionist >> i think he is >> you do? >> yeah. because his experience to the steel, he looks at it from -- >> we've got to run. steve liesman, thank you for helping us understand that story. coming up, some very important breaking economic news key reads on jobs and manufacturing just minutes away that may very well move the markets. the futures right now are in the green, but we'll see where they are in mut fm w. ckn momentrono

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[ready forngs ] christmas? no, it's way too early to be annoyed by christmas. you just need some holiday spirit! that's it! this feud just went mobile. with xfinity xfi you get the best wifi experience at home. and with xfinity mobile, you get the best wireless coverage for your phone. ...you're about to find out! you don't even know where i live... hello! see the grinch in theaters by saying "get grinch tickets" into your xfinity x1 voice remote. a guy just dropped this off. he-he-he-he.

welcome back to "squawk box. breaking news before the big holiday break. october preliminary read on durable good orders expected to be down 2.6%, 2.7% worse. down 4.4%. now, this is preliminary if we strip out transportation, it improves dramatically to up 0.1%. also much less than expected if we look at capital goods orde orders, capital investing, what we see there is unchanged. we expected up 0.2%. if you look at shipments versus orders, that was up 0.3%

first time that was as expected. a little activity in the options pits if we look at jobless claims, they move from 221,000 up to 224,000. and of course 221,000 was revised. originally released at 216,000 last week. and 1.668 million on continuing claims that's just a bit lower than our 1.67 look. as i look up at the board, we drifted maybe a basis points these were somewhat weak durable goods. swooel have our leading economic indicators dollar index giving a quarter cent back of that pop yesterday. remember there's only been two closes above 97 going back to the summer of '17. one is the high at 97.54 but giving up a little ground. back to you, andrew. >> thank you, rick

steve liesman, you have been talking about the importance of these numbers all morning. >> well, let me see if i can get into it. there's a lot going on here. first thing that sort of hurts the top line is boeing i mean, the line is non-defense aircraft parts aka, boeing. down 21% after falling 19% i don't think boeing is having a problem selling planes they're up -- in august they were up 20%. another thing that's kind of like a -- sorry, it was up 63% in august. it's a volatile series they sell a lot one month or whatever is accounted for. another thing is defense parts and capital goods. but i don't think there's any story out there about the u.s. government stopping or slowing down i think the story is the opposite they're increasing defense spending let's get rid of all that stuff and look what's happening in the

private sector and there is more mix. computer communications up 3.2%. computer electronics up 1.6% general machinery down the number that is the most troubling to me here is this unchanged business investment number business investment says non-capital goods ex-aircraft. that's unchanged the third month to month decline in a row it raises the question as to what's happening in the capital spending we're supposed to be getting a boom here. it may be it's a pause >> right >> it may be that they're waiting for next year to spend but we know we've had the tax cuts we know we've he did regulation. we know we've had a lot of things there should be some kind of kicker here. >> i want to talk about the capex. there's been a big debate about when that is supposed to kick in or not, right? by the way, st. louis fed was suggesting you wouldn't actually get the kick the way we saw that that somehow we were going to

see that come in 2019. does this suggest to you that that -- you would have wanted to see, i think, a little bit more of a trend moving that direction. >> let me tell you two theories of the case. one theory from the administration here is one of the things that kept capital spending from accelerating was the relative tax rate and by lowering it, you'd get a kicker. the other side of that story was that you did not have a lot of demand out there that was unmet by capital goods >> right >> you did not have a lot of investment projects that weren't happening because of taxes and there was not much really to be done here that lower taxes would kick in. the current data kind of favors the second run but i think it's still -- you still want to give it a little time before you say there is no capex boom we want to see what happens with budgets this year. we want to see what happens early in next year i think it's unavoidable there will be some kick.

i think it's inevitably going to be less than the administration has projected. >> and then the other thing to layer on top, what's the other piece to layer on top of this though i'll ask you the question. >> we need to introduce him, don't we >> i'm sorry >> i'm not an anchor here, i don't want to tell you how to do your job in general, we like to -- can i? >> he's with pgi fixed income. >> wait, wait. he was the big dude at the fed international and treasury i'm sorry. >> that's why we have you here we want to hear what you're thinking about all these big issues what's happening with trade. you've got an insider's perspective of what's going on what do you think? >> i think there is a lot of uncertainty out there and that's probably one of the things that's holding back investment the thesis of the tax cuts is there would be more investment and the last quarter or so, it's kind of gone in the opposite direction. and i find that concerning on the trade front, i think

president trump believes that he's got a winning hand. that this trade war is hurting the chinese economy more than it's hurting the u.s. economy. but arguably now maybe we're starting to see a little bit more signature in u.s. performance. with the recent softening of investment and frankly, i think the trade war is at least partially responsible for this volatility that we're seeing in equity markets. as steve pointed out earlier, wall street doesn't like this trade war. whether or not it gets to a better equilibrium down the road is very much an open issue but what we know is it's creating uncertainty and some pain now >> i think the question that becomes is does that effect cam exspending because we've been looking for capex spending does uncertainty related to trade affect the end result? >> well, as was suggested, we've seen in q3 investment soften

these capital goods data are not all that great we got to kind of step back and say, well, why is that and one explanation is the month- month-to-month data are noisy. but another explanation is maybe there's some concern out there in the economy and in the corporate sector. it would be these firms are constrained by the leverage that they're holding. it's also possible that they're constrained by uncertainties about where economic policy is headed the particularly trade wars >> that's been the story in the beige book if you read what the fed's beige book says, it says that companies are uncertain and holding back investment because of tariffs i do want to make one other point which is an unknowable thing. how much the decline in oil prices has hurt business investment you know, to take a little bit away from the administration's theory of the case the last year, a lot of theboom we had,

a lot of the change from obama was a low oil price at the end of his term and a higher oil price that dmam with the president. some portion of this that we need to disaggregate is from higher oil prices and now maybe some of the falloff is from lower oil prices >> what you're saying is staring us in the face ten out of ten analysts we have on and we have on a lot every week, stock market soout sayers and pundits every one of them say tariffs. fed and tariffs, fed and tariffs, fed and tariffs, fed and tariffs. every one of them. it just seems obvious. i mean, ceos watch this show and they're no different than a lot of the people trying to figure out the markets. >> but you used a word that scares me. you said some of the companies might be worried about their leverage levels. >> yes oh, absolutely >> speak to that because we have not had that conversation. >> absolutely. when you look at corporate

america, there are more firms in that bbb credit rating than was the case before. when you're sitting there at bbb and if you're at all worried about any kind of adverse shock including maybe a recession on down the road -- >> how about rates going up? >> or rates rising, yeah then you think of credit migration. then you have to think about, well, what is life going to be like in the high yield bracket you know, maybe folks are pulling back a little bit on investment >> yeah, but a little bit is different. it's hard to imagine there are companies -- i know there are some out there, but that the vast amount of companies don't have pretty good credit profiles in the sense they've had a long time to both term out their debt and negotiate down into lower interest rates i think that compared to previous credit cycles, if we do have a decline this time around, it's got to be a lot shallower and easier than previous ones. >> so i think there's an analogy

with the corporates and the households when we look at aggregate data, it looks good. they have termed out exactly as you said aggregate debt services but within the household sector and within the corporate sector, there are pockets of problems. and i think it behooves us to pay attention to these bbbs and what might happen if we had a shock associated with the trade war. >> agree thank you so much for coming in. nathan sheets again. fixed income strategist. and steve liesman. >> have a great holiday, everybody. >> you too coming up, sam stovall swings by the set. we'll get his take on the investment climate right now when "squawk box" comes right back but everywhere else... there are performers, dancers, designers the dads and the drivers.

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welcome back to "squawk box. joining us now sam stovall and you could be called a market historian. all you've got to do is talk to bob stovall which you get to do all the time probably tomorrow. >> probably so, absolutely >> you going to see him tomorrow >> no. he's a snow bird, so he's down in florida but i will certainly ring him up and he'll worry i'm calling collect. but i'll assure him i'm not. >> don't you love that peopled of a certain age go, oh, is it

long distance? long distance is free. >> right >> so we've had you on recently. we have another week under our belt how are you feeling these past few trading sessions >> well, i think the market is trying to ascertain whether it's really resetting the dials based on slowdown in earnings growth as well as the fed raising rates or as you were talking before, is it something more ominous with the trade tiff turning into a full blown trade war so is it simply a slowdown in growth or is it the potential of a global economic recession? so right now, you know, my feeling is most people are playing it as a slowdown and so when you look to technicals and whatn whatnot, we'll see the s&p bottom around 2550 or so a little further to go to the down to see whether it goes deeper

than that. >> i can deliver a really pollyannaish scenario. let's go back to the end of 2018 and take that multiple then let's factor in the first three quarters of earnings we've had this year which were 20-whatever-percent. so take the multiple now based on which is way down which is way up. by the end of 2018, i'm sorry, end of 2017. i don't know what year it is if you even thought about buying them then, they're so much cheaper than a relative basis now. based on the higher earnings. >> you're on the right track >> i am? >> oh. bob. i'd rather hear his opinions. >> i'll say it in his voice. well, joe, actually if you look back over the past five corrections and pullbacks, the average pe was 15.3.

that would imply a 2554 target if we applied that to the earnings expectations currently. if you look back at the 3u8back in the corrections back to 2010, now the worry is 13.7 which would imply a minor bear market. >> here's the problem. the question is is this time different than we've seen in recent history because are we nearing the end of the bull market cycle are we ending the end of the economic cycle that's the big question. because stocks are forward looking. if we think things are falling off a cliff or will deteriorate rapidly, that's -- >> i think that's why those two scenarios if you are looking back over the last five, that means we're looking at a correction a 13% decline based on the slowdown but still we're looking at earnings -- >> your really low numbers on those multiples were inversely related to -- or were related to interest rates

and you got those when you were low on interest rates. >> not the last ten years. >> but if the terminal rate of this interest rate cycle is 3.5%, that doesn't call for a ten times multiple that means 15 would be cheap aren't multiples usually correlated with where interest rates are? >> yes, they are absolutely >> so if we reach the terminal point of the hikes and it's under 4%, then why isn't 15 a bear market low for the multiple >> if you look back over the last -- well, back to world war ii, and you look at quintiles of inflation, the reason we didn't fall into a bear market with pe ratios being above 20 is because the average pe in that lowest quintile was 24 on a month gap basis. we are working our way higher in terms of interest rates. i'm still a pollyanna like you are where i turn lemons into

whiskey sours -- >> what are gap multiples? gap multiples must be 25 right now. >> at the next segment, i can finish my thought. >> okay. go ahead basically what i have found since 1955 is we have never fallen into a bear market -- >> you want to have dinner tomorrow on time but -- >> i like this back and forth. >> are you inviting me >> no, no. no, no we only have one turkey. >> i know. he's sitting across from me. >> oh! >> what's that called? i always worry about -- >> rim shot. >> i've said it wrong before and it could turn out horribly >> start again, joe. good morning >> 15 and -- i'm just happy you don't have, like, the sales tag on the coat you wore that one time you know >> that's right. at least you didn't ask me about my tie from muilenburg we just won our second playoff game we're going to be playing randolph macon this saturday and we're going to kick their butts

too. >> curling >> curling, yeah. >> mooul behe has a financiaootm who have you been playing? >> other division 3 schools. other schools you haven't heard of >> i'm kidding i've heard of them this has been fun. >> happy thanksgiving. >> happy thanksgiving. >> i'm sure you're thrilled you were here. >> sam stovall, cfra when we come back, dow component boeing is having a pretty rough week. down about 6% this last friday we'll get the street's take isght after th stay tuned you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc

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welcome back everybody, a record number of passengers are expected to fly this thanksgiving it comes as a travel industry faces a number of head winds and tail winds when we check in about an hour ago, things were not too busy. how about now? >> it is about the same. this looks like a typical wednesday here at o'hare airport. you are not seeing the long line that people fear when it comes to traveling during the holidays a record number of travelers are expected for this holiday thanksgiving weekend approximately 3 million passengers today, not the busiest. the busiest will be on sunday. the good news for those who are

traveling even though, when you look at air faires over the las couple of years, they still remain relative lilo take a look at shares of southwest, alaska, spirit, all of the airline stocks, they have been under a little bit of pressure this week they have done well over the last couple of months which is what we see the airline stocks historically through the end of december that's when stocks of airlines moving higher guys, back to you. >> phil lebeau, thank you for that >> investors have not been kind to boeing. more than 10% much of the th decline. this is a company that for so long was considered the safe

haven inside the world of industrials. it is no longer but help us with this we have been dealing with the news of the 737 max. we have been dealing with the trade tariff issues. what's the biggest concern right now? >> it has been in the background all yearlong it is still out performed our sector by 20% so it is a winner. people are looking at winners at the top market >> that's what it is about >> it is about the crash >> for the market to try to understand what is the acute issue that led to this downturn and also pulling down the dow. the recent impact is 737 whether delivery or the accident involviinvolv involving liner. it is 25% of boeing's free cash flow

>> you know the people inside this company well. when they decide to have a conference call and cancel the conference call, investors seemed to be spooked were you spooked >> not one bit i don't work there i think boeing speaks to its global customers on a daily bases. whether they want a global conference call or face-to-face or on a regional, i am not sure. i don't think there is anything sinister behind a cancellation of a call. >> you saw what happened yesterday when the news hit the call was off, people got more anxious. >> again, i think maybe they decided a global conference call was not the best idea or maybe regional >> so the stock has dropped, what is the fair price for the stock arket? >> the stock is currently trading at 8% so significant

discount to the market >> our target price is 400 >> when you are sitting at the thanksgiving table, you will tell your family you got to buy the stock. >> i think boeing has a focused record >> what is the history of either accidents relating to boeing or any other aircraft manufactures, what happens to the stock right after and what does it look like six months later or does this trade issue which is a cloud overall that change the dynamic of the situation >> there is over 7,000 flying and 60 accidents in 737 so it is still under 1% pretty decent safety >> i am speaking of the safety record issues so much as to what you think the implication of this particular accident become given the real concerns and not

just that there was an accident but they did not educate the pilots in the way they should have i think it is a distinction and relative to some of the things that happens over the years. >> i think it is fatigue and stress that involved in an aircraft so i think that there was a simple answer, it would have been found out in the testing and certification process that we are not talking about and developing these aircrafts and spending billions of dollars of development. >> are there heads going to roll over at boeing >> the final question i am dpoigoin to ask you, given the world that you spend time thinking about, is this the best buy right now among the stocks you cover >> given how torture the stocks have been? >> boeing is still a winner. when you look at amd it still out performs other

sector when you look at precash flow is what we judge all of our stocks on the discount is wide and post accident >> thank you >> thanks a lot. >> let's take another look at a couple of tech names let's look at the faang stocks and see everything is up apple is just 1% from the other one. facebook is up 1.2%. amazon is a big number for amazon considering to $1,500.net fli $1,500.net -- netflix is rebounding nicely and alibaba and adobe. some other stocks to watch today, bj's wholesale.

that stock is up by 7.4% there has been distinct winners and losers among retailers most of them are losers but this one is an exception. u.s. steel has been rat lified y the u.s. workers lowe's was downgraded. the firm points to macro economic concerns as well as execution. their shares after the ninth day yesterday. profit margins falling short of analyst forecast what they were talking about is making investment to change the business that got strategic operation ons on this. that'll cut into earnings of the current quarter. >> heavy equipment, earnings and revenues, they fell short of the

estimate thanks to strength and the farm and construction quick final check on the markets right now. dow looks like opening up 130 points and nasdaq is up 73 point. s&p 500 is up to 16. have a wonderful thanksgiving everybody. have a great thanksgiving guys >> you too >> "squawk on the street" begins right now. ♪ >> good morning, i am carl quintanilla with david faber, and sara eisen and jim cramer is off today. we got new