bounce back we've seen them really bounce back pretty nicely so far. >> and i'm just looking at our note here from morgan stanley on u.s. economics they are expecting consumer confidence to soften just slightly in november looking at new home sales that have fallen four consecutive months, and yet what we're hearing from retailers is there's a very optimistic outlook for the holiday season ahead but we'll have to see if that holds through you all have a great thanksgiving. >> "closing bell" starts right now. happy thanksgiving happy thanksgiving to you. a very warm welcome to "closing bell." good afternoon i'm wilfred frost. >> i'm sara eisen in for kelly evans, a positive market day, the dow and s&p higher for three days up 0.6% on the dow, a little bit more in the other indices. >> despite the carnage of the past two days all three major

averages are around 5% above their worst level of the year, just for some perspective down 3% not significant in terms of volume which is something that we should bear in mind. >> ahead of the holiday season, a full day of trading and let's begin with our reporters looking at the week that was and maybe again. seema mody is watching the tom brady volume bertha coombs has the biggest movers at the nasdaq and mike santoli is looking at investor sentiment. sxwl. >> you might expect the day before and volume has been notably heavy all week, about 700 million shares have exchanged hands just today and it's likely due to traders shoring up positions ahead of the holiday. this comes as consumer sentiment fell in november and a lot of

economists are pinning most that have to the stock market volatility traders also keeping a very close eye on housing which makes up 50% of economic activity. the data today shows that home refinancing requests fell to an 18-year low. it comes after the latest housing starts data showed a modest rise and single family starts which comprise the largest share of the market fell in october, and then that home builder sentiment number cooled as well. the home builders are actually up today, but, again, down sharply on the year, so those concerned around the economy and housing have not gone away, and neither have those trade concerns after u.s. trade representative robert light heiser issued that report on continued concerns out of china. just ten days before the critical meeting before trump and xi at g-20 next friday for now stocks are brushing off those concerns as well the trade-sensitive stocks outperforming and boeing trying to end its longest losing streak since 2014 that stock up just fractionally on the day

wilfred? >> thank you very much for that. the nasdaq remains in correction territory despite today's gain and let sent you up down to bertha coombs for a look at that index. >> hi, wilf. they do not like to see the markets lower the day before thanksgiving and while it's down for the week and the quarter it's moving back into positive territory with today's bounce. the four day in the last five that have seen the composite move more than 1.5% and only the second one of those days that is up in the last week. the biggest gainer, the designer soft wear with expectations earnings and a new bounce that hit new lows like activision which hasn't seen back-to-back gains since the start of the month. facebook is up for a second session, and it's continuing this pattern of being down three days followed by two up days it's been happening all month, but there's still tremendous skepticism about these big momentum stocks and tech stocks in particular. some analysts talk about the fact that tech stocks have --

techs have about 58% revenue exposure globally compared to about 37% for the overall s&p, and then, of course, there are potential issues facing regulation of the likes of facebook and google and amazon's warning about slower growth this quarter. that makes everybody still very skittish video is a great example of how skittish they are. it's reversing the gains from this morning up as much as 4% to start the day. as much as traders are hoping that we're bottoming, they just don't feel like we're there yet. >> sara? >> bertha, thank you for the movers at the nasdaq, jeffrey gundlach talking about today's volatility to reuters saying, vote, we don't have anything resembling a panicked low and we're late with the selloff. the market is overbought mike santoli has more. mike, who needs jeffrey gundlach you've been telling us every day. >> well, that is true. i have to agree with him though i'm not sure the market looks overbought i'm not sure what measures he's

using there, but it is true. the market has been very systematically almost quietly pressured with the selloff i will say it's anxious. it's not so much the people that are calm and bullish, but there is some anxiety and you're seeing outflows for retail mutual funds for stocks and riskier bonds. you are seek that the market is down in 2016 gundlach is talking about it and in 2011 you had steeper declines and much heavier and consistent selling pressure and then maybe you got a fuller purge final point i would make on this i would not sure you would expect to see an all out fright at this point when the market is still down 10% it's flat for the year the economy seems okay something radically is changed i need to be afraid. if volume is higher,

particularly i think yesterday you got close, and i think yesterday you definitely saw more lopsided volume and you saw more kind of favorite kind of good fundamentals, quote, stocks get just thrown out there because people were selling what they could, but it wasn't a fat pitch. wasn't once of the instances where you said there it is, obviously everyone has decidedly turned bearish. >> what has all of this done to investor sentiment >> i think it's confused just because the fundamentals had seemed so good all year and here we are without any gains to show for it in the s&p. but also people didn't give up the idea that there would be year-end relief. i don't think people have abandoned the seasonal sensibility out there and you see wall street strategists still say higher in 2019 if only modestly so. >> mike, great stuff thanks very much we look forward to seek you at the top of the next hour let's get to our "closing bell"

exchange a very good afternoon to you all. if i start with you, on monday if it comes back, more than perhaps's positive looking move upwards. >> i think it depends on what happens today and friday, and friday even though it's half a day the move could be exaggerated because it's a short day and people away from the devers, and so when people come back on monday, if there's still that sense of angst and nervousness, then, yeah, would you see kind of a push lower and you might see volume pick up if we get to the lows that we created in october at 3620 if -- if we get there, and it's going to test, it's going to test it hard, and if it holds it's great and if it doesn't hold then you created a whole new range in terms of where you're going to be trading i think it's going to test and hold it. it almost did that yesterday at 2630, and so i kind of expect -- i think the worst is really over in my opinion. i think we'll move into the

year-end rally may not take us to the highs, but i think we'll rally into december. >> do you agree, john, that the worst is almost over >> it depends on what the fed is going to say in the next meaning. there's going to be no reprieve in terms of tariffs. they will raise rates 25 basis points in terms of december. the question is what's the language for 2019, how bullish or hawkish are they going to be for the guidance in the future, and if the fed does back down a little bit and they are tracking the data and the data appears to be weaker than what is coming in then you could see the santa claus real you like the atmosphere being creed by the volatility, and there's a few opportunities that you're picking up. >> let talk turkey for the bulls it hasn't been the year they hoped for. the flat market return is going for a thanksgiving dinner. it's not a lot of fun. the pickup in market volatility is making investors really anxious. my wife said to me today are we going into a recession it's on the cover of the paper that "r" word is what's encouraging here for investors

that's what creates opportunity. that anxiety here, investors forget there's a lot to be grateful going into this the faang stocks and leadership got hit. that's what you want to see in a bottoming action bitcoin has been thrown to the wood shed. all of those that you can see has given encouragement. if we didn't have low energy prices this would be a totally different story. the consumer is going to be so thankful and grateful it's almost like an orchestrated selloff and energy prices. going into black friday, it gives the consumer what they need to get through christmas, and then in all of those set a bullish condition. again, we are a trade deal away from the year-end santa claus rally. >> all right we've got a lot of optimists on the panel, rick santelli one thing that people are watching when a pocket of the market has been the credit market, we've started to see a little bit of wobble how can you interpret that >> there's a little bit of wobble, but by all historic

accounts of the relationship between fixed income market and treasury interest rates and the equity markets, the wobble should have been a much bigger wobble now, we could have a variety of asterix, why it didn't occur maybe supply debt, i understand, but you also had a huge historic-sized speculative short position that had been unwinding and putting bids into the market one would have thought that the shakiness of the equity markets and the time slot that it occurred would have given us more upside in price and downside in yield. it just didn't materialize i really do think we can point to the fed and point to all these very valid issues and at the end of the day i think it's simple as draining global rick which hadity and it's going to take a toll on markets, on pricing, on evaluations and on profitability, on the walking dead with respect to companies that will probably crease to exist and put pressures on others and think ge. i think it's quite normal.

the liquidity exit or lexit as we termed it on the trading floor i think is going to be an issue, and i fully suspect that it the fed will deliver in december do i believe it's priced in despite some of the movement in fed fund futures, and i think that the fed committee is very cognizant of the fact that it might have two pillars, but maybe there's an unspoken third pillar called give some insurance should things slow down and at least in that regard i give the fed kudos where other central bankers are definitely behind the eight ball in that regard. >> kenny, the s&p essentially is flat year to date. you said you think we do get to a december rally here, and what kind of magnitude are you talking? >> a month ago i thought we would challenge the highs that we had this year and i backed off of that, backed off of that, by think we're going to probably -- i wouldn't be surprised if we get back to around 2780, 2800. i think that's where it's going to go. i think the holiday shopping is going to be better, you know,

everyone is getting nervous about it i think that's baloney every year they blow it out of the water, and i think they do it again this year, and when you talk about the fed you can already see how they are positioning. ralph above theic and rich clarita came out in their speeches the last few days and they were very, very toned down which is in complete contrast to what powell said, you know, the month before when he talked about no, we're on and on. clarita and bostic made it sound like there's a little bit of wiggle room in 2019. >> we'll hear more at the economic club next year, john. what if you don't hear a change in tone from the federal reserve. the data, at least the wage growth and the inflation data around their target is signalling that they can keep hiking do you have less conviction on this market? >> it depends on your time horizon. the beauty of the selloff is if you're a longer term investor and you're looking to -- willing to look past the upcoming tech meeting, the energy sector is rolled over, retail stocks have gotten destroyed the last two

days, so i think there's tremendous value to be had if you're willing to look how the past the 12/31, it 2018. >> what's the most value for the international markets that you talked on earlier that you liked? >> it's interesting. we talk about this idea. it's no time to get passive and sort of irresponsible index investing here has created opportunities for investors. take energy as a great exam. look at emerging markets can't take them all as a basket. some import energy and some produce energy so the decline in energy prize creates a tailwind for countries like india that import energy because it is a lower input cost for countries that produce energy clearly that's going to be a challenge, year end, we get tax laws selling and get a lot to dig through the rubble and find some value opportunities going into next year for that january effect bounce. >> we'll leave it there. thanks very much larry glazer, kenny polcari and

rick santelli, happy thanksgiving to you. >> still to come on "closing bell." one thing airlines are particularly happy for, that could signal upside for the year end. we'll tell you what it is next. >> later facebook's mark zuckerberg striking back against critics. ahead we'll analyze his defense and the challenges that investors might still be concerned about with the stock and you can reach out to the show on facebook, on twitter or accepted us an e-mail. "closing bell" will be back after a break with the dow up 137 points obvious. sometimes, they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group - how the world advances. ♪

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in a two-hour window so you're up and running in no time. show me decorating shows. this is staying connected with xfinity to make moving... simple. easy. awesome. stay connected while you move with the best wifi experience and two-hour appointment windows. click, call or visit a store today. a. welcome back to "closing bell." we're higher by 129 points on the dow with just 43 minutes left to trade before thanksgiving here are the winners in the dow. microsoft up 2% and chevron up 2% and cat up 2% interesting spread is there. tech company, oil-related company and trade-related company all bouncing off what has been a tough week, still down week to date. of course, the dow is down 3% as things stand so far this week. a record number of americans are expected to fly during the american holiday good news for airlines

something extra to be thankful for. phil lebeau has that story. >> reporter: a lot to be thankful for in terms of the airlines strong passenger demand going into the end of the year and lower jet fuel prize, and in terms of this holiday weekend, we're not seeing many cancellations around the country. we've been here all day long and there was a glitch with the american airlines kiosks earlier today for about 15 minutes once that was cleared up, we saw the lines disappear. more than 3 million people are expected to fly today. when you look at the airline industry in terms of the number of people flying this year, last year was about 849 million, and it's expected to top 900 million this year. that's the demand that the airlines have been looking for what they are also enjoying right now is improvement with jet fuel, particularly over the last month and a half. jet fuel has come down substantially, and as a result when you look at shares of whether it's united, american, jetblue, really all of the airline stocks, many of them have not had a very good 2018.

they have moved higher over the last eight weeks, and they are expecting that to continue into the end of the year. provided we do not have any major storms that cause real widespread cancellations heading into the christmas and new year's end of the year travel rush guys, back to you. >> looks very orderly and civilized behind you phil lebeau with an update from chicago o'haefr airport and the most popular destinations are online so the travel website, emarketer estimating worldwide travel sales will increase 6% to $994 billion how do you play that in the market james hardman as well as seema mody who covers this space give us the lay of the land for some of these stocks, bookings some of them are doing very well if you look at trip advisors, one of the best performing stocks so far in 2018. double the price, and what's interesting is a lot of online

travel operators are coming off a very low base. what's helped them outperform. some of the hoe terrell and traditional operators is they have a much wider base that they cover, airlines, rental cars and hotels as well if you look at the hotel stocks they underperform the hotel operators because you've seen the supply in lodging supply and some of the consumers and transient demand. >> there's not one that's attracting them, plenty to pick from are they trying to offer consumers price comparisons or discounts? >> just like dating you want options. there's a number of different search channels that you can use to find different places and have a better understanding that if you're in some of these interleukin 2 or tier three markets like florence, not rome, where you may not know the environment, you want to get the lay of the land and that's what the travel operators provide. >> one of the interesting things

that i feel is it's sell very much a desk-top driven set of advice. >> i think the dominant platform is desk top and where a lot of investments are being made is on mobile platforms because they do think that's the future. now the challenge is monetizing those mobile queries as people are -- are oftentimes starting their search on their smartphones. more often than not they finish it on the desk top, however, and so the challenge has become, you know, making sure that people that utilize some of these online travel agents, their resources on the mobile phone, that they are able to capture the revenues and ultimately those profits when it comes time to book. >> james, seema spoke to some of the outperformance and trip advisers, more than 75 so far this year, but expedia is down for the year, so where's the value and why such a big divergence >> i think in the case of trip advisers in particular, we enter

2018 with a lot of fehr surrounding really the hole meta search business model for a number of reasons. trip advise sear meta search company primarily, and as you can imagine, google is encroaching on their business, and there's an overreliance i think a lot of people believe on a small number of customers, namely booking and expedia, and so coming into this year after a difficult 2017, trip adviser has really outperformed and i think it's become evident that even though some of those concerns that we talked about are still very much valid, they are the go-too meta search engine, certainly if you compare them to truvago who has not had a good year think about the online travel agencies and book and expied yeah, i think investors came into the year looking for any indication, like a lot of other industries, that, you know, nine

years into a recovery, you know, are there any signs of a slowdown, and so while i don't think we've seen a whole lot of evidence thus far, any negative data point i think has been magnified in a lot of ways, and i think that's why booking is up maybe 1% and expedia is maybe down 5% year to date. >> and do you like the cruise ships operators as well? >> i do. so if i think about some of the big picture trends that are helping travel and are helping some of these online travel guys, it's, you know, deck graphic tail winds, you know, baby boomers and, you know, generation "z" place hag higher utility on -- on travel, and then trends like where people are more likely to book their travel online than offline i think the same long-term secular trends are very favorable for the cruise lines, and the cruise lines also

benefit from being extremely cheap relative to historical valuation levels. >> they really have underperformed what's hot right now in holiday travel are people thinking domestic, all about experiences? >> you look at trip individuals err, the hotel revenues are down it's the non-hotel revenue that's outperforming and more millenials rather than across different generations. they are seeking out the generations and the tourists when they -- >> that's become a big trend. >> cruises fit into that you're finding that onboard, once on a ship, they are trying to provide the experiences from exercise classes and it's not just about going there. >> they go on -- you don't go on vacation to exercise, do you >> morning workout and then head to cocktail hour. >> i like that. >> people do that all day. >> thank you all very much for joining us. >> we've got 36 minutes to go here before the closing bell

we've got a real on our hands. the dow is up 100 points nasdaq mopping 1.3%, the russell 2000 index is up 1.5%, not really making a dent in the losses that we've seen over the past two days, but a little bit of a bounce. >> the most important thing in that that we just learned is as long as you go to the gym in the morning, you can start drinking straight afterwards. does that apply to thanksgiving or just on vacation? >> people don't work out on thanksgiving it's food, football, shopping. >> drinking. >> exercise doesn't really fit in >> a new holiday for you. >> i've been here three years. >> still ahead, speaking of shopping, the retail sector has been hit hard lately, but black friday may be a bright spot according to a portfolio manager who is on the cusp of the best holiday season ever. >> a market pop may be the boost to your 401(k) and a look at what is having an your

retirement earnings. that all after the break let's begin. yes or no? do you want the same tools and seamless experience across web and tablet? do you want $4.95 commissions for stocks, $0.50 options contracts? $1.50 futures contracts? what about a dedicated service team of trading specialists? did you say yes? good, then it's time for power e*trade. the platform, price and service that gives you the edge you need. looks like we have a couple seconds left. let's do some card twirling twirling cards e*trade. the original place to invest online.

welcome back to "closing bell." a little more than half an hour

to go before the close looks like things are going strong with a mini rebound ahead of the thanksgiving day holiday. nasdaq is 1.4 and russell 2000 up 1.5%. a physical check on shares of game stock they will sell their spring mobile division. they own and operate about is,2889 at&t wireless stores they are trading up more than 10% on that news. >> shares of student loan service and ticking high today after a big plunge in yesterday's session. the stock was hit after a report said an ongoing government audit pointed to deceptive practices in which the company seemed to induce some borrow, into higher cost plans. >> and the burden of student loans is having a big impact on how americans save for retirement sharon epperson joins us with more sharon >> reporter: most federal student loans have a six-month

grace period and monthly periods begin and that starts in november borrowers figure out what they owe, how they pay it and the impact debt burden could have on other financial goals including saving for retirement. four out of ten millenials says their student loan burden stopped them from saving according to a new report by the association of young americans and aarp almost the same percentage of ge gennif again j gen-xers agreed. to ease the debt burden, consider switching to an income-driven payment plan for federal loans so your payments are determined by how much you earn no paycheck means no payments for now. also, look into refinancing options on private student loans, and to drive your savings workers should save a small amount of every paycheck into the employer's 401(k) plan, at

least enough to get the firm's matching contribution. if you don't have access to a 401(k) plan can't beaute as much as you can to a roth i.r.a put away a maximum of $5,500 for 2018 and you have until the tax deadline next april to get the money in back to you. >> sharon, thank you very much for that time now for a nbc update. sue herera has that for us. >> here's what's happening at this hour. new jersey investors believe a family of four found dead in a fire on tuesday were victims of homicide an autopsy determining the homeowner keith canaro had been shot at the same time the victim's snowblower in custody for setting his own home on fire earlier that day the two cases may be connected. the sequel "ralph breaks the internet" is poised for a strong opening earning nearly $2 million in tuesday previews. the movie is expected to bring

in between $67 million and $77 million than's a war brewing over chocolate brilla is challenging the treat nutella. the new spread is set to be released next year i can't wait to try that now, i've never been able to feed ten people for this price, but if you want to know how much a thanksgiving day dinner costs according to american farm bureau, the average cost for a traditional meal for ten is $48.90 including had a 16-pound turkey, stuffing, potatoes, dinner rolls, cranberries and pumpkin pie. i don't know where they are shopping >> not organic. >> not in new york city. not anywhere that i've ever shopped around the country including l.a. and chicago, but they say you can do it, who

knows. >> have a wonderful thanksgiving. >> i hate to -- well -- >> got to go back to nutella. >> i didn't know that was italian in the first place. >> delicious. >> i did know that. >> there's a new nutella cafe. i thought it was american because it's so sweet. >> it could be -- anyway, it's good. >> see you later. >> we're not seeing you next hour. >> i just like to say happy thanksgiving to everybody. >> good, see you next hour. >> we should point out here we've got a little under half an hour to go and we're seeing session lows some of the earlier and big gains for the dow slipping away. at the high point of the day the dow was up 204 points and now it's up just.

>> there's a slippage in momentum up .2 percent it's been a pretty torrid week we're still down 3% to date on the dow as things stant. only.02% of a gain seema mody is on the floor and bertha coombs at the nasdaq. seema, let's start with you. >> we are losing steam here as we head into the close only up 48 points, but in terms of what has worked throughout the day it's the sectors like energy and technology which led the selloff earlier this week and are leaving the market modest rebound big oil names are all on the rise led by chevron up about 1.7% and the performance of stocks in november illustrate a much more defensive posture as we've been discussion. the latest hedge fund report from goldman sachs shows the tech and consumer discretionary into sectors like healthcare is actually gaining momentum. healthcare, utilities, reits are underperforming today, done well this month

in terms of the s&p 500, that paints sort of a different picture. it's names like starbucks, foot locker and travel names and norwegian cruise line which are leaving the s&p 500 for the month. >> seema, thank you. >> let's send it up down to bertha coombs for an update from the nasdaq. >> we're off the highs but still holding in as far as the tech leadership that we've seen chips bouncing once again. health care is lower and biotech is performing pretty well today, and amazon is probably one of the stocks that we're really watching and finally snapping a three-day losing streak but amazon remains near bear market territory as does apple. it's up for the first day in three as well, though not contributing as some might like in terms of a bounce given the magnitude of the selloff that we've seen in the stock. also some of the apple suppliers today definitely bouncing and

helping the chip sector. sky moving higher today as well. we're seeing some of the games dissipate as we move towards the close. >> traders generally keep their fingers cross that had we go out in the green ahead of thanksgiving >> back to you. >> okay. bertha, thank you very much for that as we approach the close, 25 minutes to go we're up 65 points on the dow. coming up, two major wall street firms out with sober forecasts about the u.s. economy in 2019 what's behind the projected slowdown and what it means for your money. >> as we head to break, here's a look at the s&p sector heat map and the major averages look to close higher for the first time this week. we'll see what happens though in the next 24 hours or so. the boreund is being led by energy with that bounce in oil prices stick around we'll be right back. that i suit up, there is a chance that's the last time.

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do your rig right. shop online or find your store at 4-w-p.com. welcome backto "closing bell." some wall street firms are expected to so a slowdown in the economy next year. cnbc's steve liesman is tracking

all the estimates. what are you finding >> sara, the u.s. economy is come in for some sort of landing with economists forecasting a soft one more or less and traders seeming to believe it's going to be a rough ride to the tarmac here are the numbers q1 actual. 2.2 started off around trend this year and rocketed up to 4.2 in the second quarter and stayed above trend in the third quarter and estimate now, the wrap it up day coming down to 2.8, and 2.4% is the estimate among ten forecasters that we found today for 2019 we did 3-1 overall is the average and expected for 20-18 today's durable goods reports for october shows new orders for capital goods, that's a proxy for business investment and falling for the third straight month. hasn't happened since 2015 one reason could be oil that prices could be spending and oil fears and tariffs have caused some tariffs to be pushed off. so far business numbers have been specifically at odds with forecast from the administration

that call for a tech-led investment boom. that may happen next year, but take a look at some of these forecasts now. cbo still has potential growth of the economy at 1.8% economics is more of the optimist, 3% and there's goldman and jpmorgan getting back down towards its potential, 1.9%. skepticism about the tax cuts and a fears of slowdown in global grown caused forecasters to bring down the 2018 growth numbers. the market, guys, judged by the trade and some of the selloff, may have already made up their mind about what's going to happen. >> steve, the market is always forward looking, so what about 2020 and that "r" word is that sort of a 50-50 thing or a 10% chance >> i mean, i think some people

have more confidence of a 2020 recession and i don't think any is inevitable and any given year there's a 1 in 5 chance for recession, and i would say that the market may be forward looking but i don't know the extent to which it's able to look beyond its outstretched hand, like two weeks or something like that. i think there's a slowdown being baked in for next year i don't know that 2020 is being baked into today's stock market prices >> okay, steve, thanks very much we're going to continue the discussion mark lehman and joe lavorgna chief smist. joe, i'll start with you if the fed doesn't abate with its rate hikes and we have four more hikes, do you think a recession would emerge whether late '19 or early '20? >> 2020 for sure if the fed keeps on their

current path they will roll the economy over as steve said, nothing sinnest able i'm hopeful that economists say cautiously optimistic. i hate that phrase but it's appropriate here that the fed will not overhype. inflation is extraordinarily low. the benefits of the tax cut have yet to be fully felt on the business side. this is a big if they they keep going you'll get bigger growth in the back half of 19 and recession risk goes up significantly for 2020. >> mark, how do you see the path of economic growth, going into this last quarter and into next year >> i think growth has definitely slowed i think a lot of people are on pins and needles for what happens with the fed obviously going into the end of the year and the china concerns i think are real, and that -- that combination of those things has made the market very fearful i think one will probably dictate the other, and i think the president is hopefully paying attention to what's going

on with the economy andif we d see the signs of slogan the outlook did i merrie innes, we have to talk about what that effect for china, is and we haven't seen the effects of the slowdown or tariffs into the economy. it becomes more pronounced and i'm much more fearful of a downgrade in terms of growth for 2019 in through 2020 >> joe, clearly getting some downgrades the last week or two for u.s. growth. what's your view for 2019 internationally, and had a are sort of the key factors or bearish factors you think one or two people might be missing? >> china is the big concern. i mean, they are trying to de-leverage their economy, and it's possible along the way they hit some pitfalls. you see significant weakness and they are trying to move away from the overinvestment in housing. you're seeing money supply growth slow so china certainly poses a risk however, the good news is with china sloerk the global output gap should open and commodity prices should stay weak, and that should allow the fed to back off of the breaks and let the economy run hot so what

might be a negative could be a positive i'm not particularly worried about the tariffs, not that they are a big deal, but the fed is always the proverbial straw that stirs the drink. >> is the upshot that tro trumponommics is not going to last long and put the fed in a more difficult position. >> i think the story hasn't been written yet. we're already seeing parts of that the housing sector has clearly sloemptd you have people with adjustable mortgages who for the first time are seeing a big increase in terms of some of the payments that they have. people have opened their fourth-quarter statements yet, that will be january of next year and we've seen the flow through from the corporate america to the employee. we've seen it for the corporate balance sheet so it might be that sugar high that you're describing and there's lots of tools that we have, and not a lot left and that is worrisome

for me and the combination of that and people doing their state and local taxes, where those will go up for the big growth states and big coastal states just worries more for 2019 than people are talking about. >> we'll talk a lot more about next year's forecast and the year after well. io lavorgna, thanks as well. >> i would say the no-deal brexit are not priced in, and chattinses of that are ticking up that will be a blow to uk growth which at the moment most people in the market will -- >> will feel in a? >> eu growth across the board, most of the major exports to the uk, and it sounds like theresa may's european summit on sunday could be pushed back because their meeting today went badly it's a risk that's not baked in yet. >> i still don't -- we can go back and do it all over again. >> that's -- that would be one small upside of what otherwise would be a complicated story and

things evolve. >> 14 minutes to go. >> before "closing bell. taking a look at stocks. we're still higher, but we have lost some of the early significant gains, at least for the dow. up 34 points it was up more than 200 earlier. the nasdaq still up about a percent off the highs as well. >> up next, we'll looking at how retailers are preparing for the big holiday shopping weekend exactly. sounds like a case of analysis paralysis. is there a cure? td ameritrade's trade desk. they can help gut check your strategies and answer all your toughest questions. sounds perfect. see, your stress level was here and i got you down to here, i've done my job. call for a strategy gut check with td ameritrade. ♪

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retailers are making last-minute preparations to get ready for the big weekend of holiday shopping courtney reagan is lieu of at at kohl's in new jersey with more on that story. hi, courtney >> hi, sara of the just about 25 hours from now it's going to be time going to be the big show retailers like kohl's have been preparing all year for this. the door busters will be available to shoppers for the first time so the kohl's will open at 5:00 that's the same as best buy and macy's with the door buster deals. they will be available even earlier online and it will stay open all the way through thanksgiving night and through black friday through midnight. the national retail federation says 168 million americans will shop at some point over the

weekend. bl black friday still expected to be the biggest day as you can imagine, it takes an awful lot to handle the right influx of shoppers, the right quantity to the right stores and the right distribution centers takes 12 months of planning and with the increase in online store options, inventory gets more critical. so far in november, online sales are up more than 16.5%, so a lot of retailers offered early friday deals online. it worked. what's good news for retailers is deloitte that found that shoppers that actually start early in the guillermo endara up spending more. back over to you >> courtney, thanks very much for that coming up next, a downgrade after

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performance that's been downgraded from outperformance to neutral the main reason being they don't expect a multiple expansion until we're closer to resolving the concern. that put aside though, the valuation analysis is fascinating. think analysis is 7.1 times. the average pe is 11 times and the trust during the financial trust was seven times and barclay's says they are below and valued for the first time in two years by their count -- >> why are they downgrading now? is it late or do they still see more downside? >> until this is settled they can't see any multiple expansion and it could drag on if you dive into the note they say they are pricing it at 1.8 billion in terms of repayment to malaysia, be 1.2 times, it could be higher or lower, so quite binary at the moment, but once it's sorted it's less than is.8

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welcome back to "closing bell." the s&p is up about 0.4% as we approach the close it was up as much as a percent so we certainly lost steam in the last hour or two but it's still higher today's higher move in perspective, let's lock tat over the course of the week, and you'll see it's still down the best part of 3% today. monday and tuesday, big, big decloins today, a little bit of reprieve in terms of the sector performance today, the likes of energy consumer discretionary and communications services and tech are higher, very much a bounce back for those that declined earlier in the week and that's also why we see utilities at the bottom. it had been the relative outperformer monday and tuesday in wednesday's decline what does this mean for all four indices? the dow itself has lost some of its gain lost 18 points and up over 200 earlier. the nasdaq is up around about 1% and s&p up 0.4

a comeback today for technology shares and the sectors that underperform earlier this week came back today and strong moves in apple, amazon and facebook, and on the flip side dividend names sold out. >> okay. seema. thank you very much. ringing the bell here at the big board is clear europe. we're higher by one point. the dow has dipped into negative territory right around the flat line having been up around 204 points earlier so we lost steam into the close but still much better than monday and tuesday sara, back to you. >> welcome to "closing bell. i'm sara eisen here for kelly evans. wilfred frost will join me in a moment along with mike santoli, senior market commentator here as always. take a look at how we're finishing up the day on wall street a funky selloff on the dow with

the dow dipping into negative territory for the first time all day. as wilfred mentioned it was up at 200 points at one point and the gains started slipping in the final hour of trade and the final minutes of trade dow dipped negative and closes down a point and a half, so couldn't quite get there s&p 500 hung on to its gain. only a third of a percent. first gain that we've seen for the s&p, and the nasdaq closing higher by a percentage point first time the nasdaq has seen a gain in about four sessions, dow s&p still lower and the russell 2000 was the outperformer and, again, well off the highs. it's been a volatile week so far for the markets. seema mody is here on the floor of the newyork stock exchange while we recap the movers and bertha coombs is up at the nasdaq with some of the action let's start with you and the little selloff that we've got here in the final two minutes. >> reporter: that was underwhelming after a nearly

200-point gain for the dow industrial the markets in general taking a breather after the dow and s&p suffered their worst start to a thanksgiving week in 45 years. today's gains where we actually saw some winners actually moved the needle to the upside all 11 sectors for the month ending lower and technology consumer discretionary and biggest lagard there and reits have seen the least amount of pain as bond yields hold steady. bogue, 3-m, caterpillar and microsoft, one wright spot home builders among the best performing s&p 500 stocks. >> seema, thanks very much for that let's send it uptown to bertha coombs with a summary of what happened at the nasdaq. >> the theme for the week is a lot of what folks were driving are we there yet are we bottoming yet in the nasdaq coming back into positive territory, and the nasdaq 100 though for the week is the worst

decliner with all the big caps being a big drag down. 4% already for the week, and also breaking through the october lows one of the things that we're looking at is the fact that it's still happening with very big volume compared to what we saw back in october. but we're seeing fewer new lows, so some folks say that could be part of a bottoming process that we're seeing at the peak of the selloff and the lows and we have 25% of the nasdaq 100 painting new lows we'll see if they can hold that kind of momentum part of the reason that we slumped here at the end was that apple moved into negative territory. among the big momentum stocks, apple the underperformer today, the underperformer for the week and all of them in the bear market apple down about 9% for the week take a look at many so of the biggest losers of the week, not just tech stocks, ross stores, retailers, despite fairly good earnings, kind of a mixed

report, really getting punished there, and the russell 2000, i want to note, is the week's relative per former, but it's still negative for the year. back to you. >> all right, bertha, thank you. leading the dow today was nike after that banner quarter by footlocker that stock rising double digits and johnsson & johnsson was some of the other big decliners with coca-cola and pfizer lower j&j was the lagard on the s&p. >> footlocker it up a lot. someone decided they would rather talk about goldman sachs. joining us totalk about the market rally, mike, earlier you called it a real not even small, faded into the close. >> inclusive i think you have to say. it made all kinds of sense we would have had a rally attempt today given that the s&p was down 3.5% in two days coming into this. interesting that it shows you what kind of market we're in

it's back on its heels and it's skittish because these kind of holiday, you know, straddling days, normally you consider them when you can muscle the market higher very easily because nobody is going to stay in your way. here clearly we saw kind of a little bit of trim your positions ahead of the holiday because you don't know what is going to happen. only had the market open for 3.5 hours the next three or four days we've hovered above the lows it was a little bit of anindex selloff at end in other words, the average stock did not tank. >> but the day was the bears finding reason to pause. >> you know what, that's right. >> well, at least for a few hours anyway i know and appreciate you invoking -- i do think the fact that the market could rally the way it did perhaps would have given the pairs paws you don't want to press it too much when you've already basically gone back down towards the october lows also yesterday there were fewer new lows than individual stocks even though

the s&p was down towards the low so these are times when you have to take the little strands of positivity where you could find them. >> what does the action say to you? >> i think the holiday weekend kind of throws you off a little bit but the path of resistance is still down and i think that you saw at the end of the close, it was one of the things where you really have to get back to next week and i think so many stocks have been sold off, but it's really the higher volume liquid stocks that are still bringing us down to this point the value stocks have already been beaten down it's your secular growth stocks that are bringing us down now. when those top to bottom, that's not the true bottom. >> apple dipped into negative territory as we approached the close, i mean, fractionally by a couple of basis points the indices themselves still down sharply this week, which doesn't suggest today anything of any meaningful turnaround. >> exactly. >> and i think people are using the source of funds. these are the stocks that have done so well the last few months

that if you're going to get out of the market and take some profits off the table the liquid, amazon, apples of the world is what you're going to. not where you're going to go to before and all the monies, really, if you think about it. the sellers are out of a lot of value. >> what are you doing with the growthy names, are you buying? >> i'm not i think value is the place to be i think some of the financials, some of the industrials -- >> financial is value and industrials are value and home product companies and they are trading a high single digit low mulls pal where you're getting a good dividend and good balance sheet and really if you're going to get any, growth they are going to come from there and that's going to drive your market higher. >> goldman sachs falling into that. >> i think goldman has its own issues given what's going on with the lawsuit and companies like bank of america, morgan stanley and jpmorgan, all of the ones we own, those are trading at a really reasonable value and they don't have that overhang that a goldman has on it.

>> mike, as a sector, the financials we always talk about, could it be the one that picks up the slack if it's not energy, if it's not tech they haven't shown any sign of doing so yet. >> not yet. >> they have really been participating in the downside but not the upside for most of this year. there is some suggestion that in the fed somehow signals as many people hope had a little bit of a softer pace of rate increases next year, kind of paradoxically if you can reveal the yield curve, they can rally, and they have only gotten cheaper. >> and i think if you add to that, if it does not invert and stays slightly up, you can see a rally on these financials because a lot of people are betting on the inverted yield curve. >> you wanted a steeper yield. >> you don't want an inverted and if you give the market a slight real up, these stocks could rally. >> a one-year bond yield that gives you the yield for

treasuries, it made it more expensive for the banks to bid for deposits and that's been unexpected sorts of pressure. >> it's been a bit of competition. >> energy getting a above the today and the brest zap sector and the sector is one of the worst performers over the month and remains down 50% down from its 452-week high. there you see it up about 1.6% today. i mean, it bounces either way. it's a bounce. >> it's obviously a bounce, and you get exactly why they have been as weak as they have, but it will be a little bit of a tell for a value rotation if it's going to last because that's where a lot of active value managers really want to start looking around. >> and if you look at where energy is going, the inputs to the consumer, to the industrial companies, this is a good thing. if oil stays in the 50s and 60s it's going to be, quote, a tax cut to a lot of companies that are using oil and using the inputs, and i think that that's

a benefit that we'll get down the road it will also not show up in inflation numbers. >> i guess the question, sorry to interrupt, where is the price of oil going you've got the president out there on twitter thanking saudi arabia for the lower oil prices. and questions about whether opec and russia are now going to cut production questions about global growth, iranian sanctions. which direction are we headed in >> i think oil stays in the 50% to 70 range. right now it's been trading quite a bit because it's kind of the saudis pumping extra oil given what happened over there, and there's enough demand and supply is not really that much on board the u.s. had supply, but i don't think we're going back to the 30s like we did in 2016 in february which was a whole different ball game because a lot of the middle eastern countries will be using funds in terms of stocks and bonds. >> which names are you picking up. >> in the oil patch, chevron, eog pioneer, those are the

companies that we think, like apache if you're going to be a long-term holder, they have come down quite a bit and start initiating positions in high quality positions. >> u.s. trade representative robert lightheiser declaring china has failed to alter, quote, unfair and unreasonable trade practices and goldman sachs and jpmorgan lowering their 2019 gdp forecast citing trade policy concerns. we all wondered hue this would impact the economy is it starting to slow it? >> i think it's -- it's one other headwind that people have to put in their 2019 forecast, right. if you assume it's status quo right now in terms of the tariffs and also in terms of the global slowdown which to whatever degree it's related to to the trade measures, i do think that's the estimates are trailing off a little bit for next year. the one thing i keep wondering about is this stance by the administration that they have not really wanted to show any

willingness to offer concessions to china, i think that's kind of draining expectations in terms of progress or at least it leaves the opening for a pleasant surprise as opposed to people going into the g-20, you know, bidding up stocks on high hopes that there's going to be immediate gratification there. >> we're at 1.9% was the gdp forecast is that too bearish? >> i think given the information which we have which is not a lot that's going on in trade and companies are doing the same thing, i think if you underpromise and overdeliver at this point that's where everybody is going and that's why you see the market kind of react, too. that's why you see multiples compress and companies saying we don't know wages are going up our costs might be going up. we're not going to tell you we'll hit our earnings goals because we don't know where it's going to go. >> which is a bigger headwind for growth, the trade battle or the fed hikes? >> the trade. >> the trades because of the uncertainty, and because of the uncertainty, companies are having a hard time forecasting not just the input costs by what

cap "x" should do, and really what is our demand going to be based upon that. it's hard as a company to kind of say what my balance sheet will really look like. if rates are going up, you can kind of forecast and say what -- what do i -- how do you push my debt out and where do i want to go to? >> the trade part today -- >> i don't know if most investors would agree with that. >> it's interesting. >> so the u.s. economy is like 70% services, right? and those two firms that we mentioned that had the forecast of 1.9% are both firms that also say the fed is going four times next year so it seems to me that they believe that that's going to be the retrafnt on gloat, at least in part. >> mike, i guess it's kind of consensus now that there's a risk that trade slows common and it's the second biggest economy in the world is it consensus, and is it priced in that europe because of brexit or italy or germany or whatever slows down meaningfully would. that be an additional negative surprise if we started to see

that >> i guess we'd have to define meaningfully i don't think that the consensus sees europe as a source of net growth in a big way next year so i don't think it's counting on that, but, yeah, i do think if we have a renewed, you know, downturn and you're going to hear people say does the ecb have any willingness or ability to sort of maneuver to prevent something like that, that could be another issue for sure. >> we'll leave it there. >> thanks so much for joining us great to see you as always happy thanksgiving two. >> up next, facebook ceo mark zuckerberg fighting back against his critics of his leadership. the stock is rallying today or did rally. we'll discuss whether he's doing enough to calm investor fears straight ahead. >> and ready, set, shop. 'll look at the potential winners and loser from the kickoff of the holiday shopping season don't go anyway. "closing bell" back in a couple. [ phone rings ] what?!

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we're gonna need the if we'element of surprise. mas, go team. [ snow crunching ] [ load crunching ] [ whispers ] this is the loudest snow ever. back after a very tough week as mark zuckerberg defended his executives. >> mark zuckerberg fighting back after the "new york times" and "wall street journal" criticized the company's handling of russia manipulation on the platform and detailed management infighting zuckerberg defended his leadership

here's what he said to cnn when asked if he's planning to step down as chairman >> that's not the plan. >> that's not the plan would anything change that >> i mean, it's like eventually over time. i'm not going -- i'm not going to be doing this forever, but -- but i certainly -- i'm not thinking that that makes sense. >> sheryl sandberg and her efforts to face facebook's biggest issues. >> she's been an important partner for me for ten years, and i'm really proud of the work that we've done together, and i hope that we work together for decades more to come >> in response, the "new york times" expose of mismanagement at the company published last week, zuckerberg said, quote, it's not clear to me that the report is right. there were a lot of things in that report that we talked to the reporters ahead of time and told them from everything that we've seen that wasn't true and they chose to print it anyways

the "new york times" report sarah frankel tweeted in response to zuckerberg that they had asked zuckerberg and sandberg multiple times for interviews and they chose not to speak to "the times. >> thanks for that joining us to discuss more on zuckerberg's commentary, cnn contributor ed lee and dave gar did i. welcome to you both. >> ed, the criticism of the "new york times" and the media in general, is it in the short term of the most recent articles or a snapshot of the last year where the company has faced pretty tough press from cnbc included >> well, tough press is still fair press, right. it doesn't mean -- there is no agenda in the newsroom of the "new york times," and i'm not speaking necessarily on behalf of my colleagues other than to say that they are consummate journalists which is, again, there's no ideological agenda if the agenda is simply what is relevant information and what is the context around the

information, and that's everything that they were able to expose from people inside facebook with what they were telling us now, we always run into this dilemma as well which is not until after we publish, and this is for stories that you've found as well, whether it's facebook or twitter or other silicon valley companies, google, they are all notorious for after the fact saying, well, no, that's not quite right. we asked you many, many times beforehand to comment. we gave you every salient detail and you refused to respond, and so i think, you know, there is an element to -- as a reporter you're always like, well, how sure are we, and we always go back to your sources and say get a second or third or fourth source and that's the story we ran with very well-sourced. no an agenda if it's unfair it's the state of play at facebook, but not at the "new york times." >> what do you think of its performance, and do you think it was effective at all in arguing that he's going to remain chairman and quiet the concerns and sheryl sandberg is going to

work with him for decades. >> a fair question to ask. are you going to stay a chairman or stay in charge? even if he steps off as chairman and somehow steps aside as the chief executive, he's still the one in control and ultimate lit one who will be making the big, big decisions, and everything from the interview and from other interviews that i've seen of him and even when i was at recode when we had one conducted with him, tells me he's still not entirely aware of how media influence works, and that's a central problem with facebook and how it's going, and i think he just -- there's a newsroom literacy gap that -- that he doesn't have that i think is the focus of the problem whether it's russian interference or conspiracy theories or each just sort of the bubble mentality of just knowing what you want to know facebook sort of amplifies that problem, and i think that hasn't really been addressed. >> david, does mr. zuckerberg have too much control for such a major list the company, and do you think actually moving

forward that the sort of example of facebook and its level of control will make any future big tech listings harder to get away unless they divide up the voting rights more fairly >> no. i would say you draw a very good point here and when we look at mark zuckerberg, he has a many haer lock on corporate governance at facebook, you know they can afford to adopt the insular attitude that they have had because he simply controls the company and controls the board and has the sole right to pick who his successor is going to be. i commend the work that ed and his colleagues have done, and i think what ed has done here is to underscore the fact is when is facebook going to own up to the fact that they are actually a media company and as a result have to operate according to higher standards zuckerberg has built a great business around gathering eyeballs, drawing attention. media companies deal in the truth. obviously a lot of facebook's trouble which is going to get them further scrutiny when the

next congress sits in january is the fact that they don't adhere to the higher standards that are required of a media organization and deal first and foremost in the truth. until such time as they do zuckerberg given the governance structure can be as delusional as it needs to be and leaves me in a situation of having a great deal of uncertainty about what to do with the stock here. >> david, for zuckerberg or facebook to declare the company a media organization and voluntarily adhere to those standards of essentially trying to vet everything for truthfulness, they would view that as unilateral disarmament because google is not doing that so until there's something that says you must classify yourself that what i unless they are losing business for not being that way, how would you -- >> mike, i would underscore. facebook has already said, look, we were responsible for aiding and abetting ethnic cleansing in myanmar which ended in the

result of deaths of hundreds of thousands of people, you know. media organizations don't do that organizations that actually aid and abet things along those lines, again sides, aren't good corporate actors they don't deserve the protection of law. i draw attention to the incoming democratic majority in the house of representatives obviously social media needs to be reformed, and mark zuckerberg is the poster boy of that. you know, taking a strategic retreat and saying you're a media organization if i was their counsel i would say it's prudent advice and give it serious consideration. >> you know, all of this is a problem, mike, but it doesn't mean that facebook is a bad stock. i'm thinking back to whitney tilson today saying, look, it's a problem. he even called zuckerberg disingenuous but he's buying the stock becaue the numbers and growth point to a very profitable year.

>> and the advertisers at least are not flowing in droempts a lot of them are questioning of whether they need to continue to facebook it's hard to ignore and so massive. if you're an advertiser, you need to get in front of as many eyeballs as you can. >> that works -- that works as long as facebook keeps its audience, and with the imposition of gdpr over in europe an people's concerns about privacy, and the clear indications of facebook's misuse of data, in you have an audience that stagnates and starts to decline, advertisers are going to say we need to step back and consider our options here. there's a lot of digital media outlets that we can go to. we don't necessarily have to be captive to facebook especially given facebook's mismanagement deeds. >> as an investor with the stock at this kind of valuation, you'll wait to see evidence of that by the way, this is not mostly big companies, brand

advertising, where they are a little bit interacting with that platform we've talking about carving up audiences to maximize buying potential. >> i don't disagree that you might have a good trade here around fourth-quarter advertising trends, but if you look at the long-term investments there's too many question marks over facebook's business model, and there are certainly better beaten down tech stocks for names to invest in probably amazon has better seasonal trades and same thing they apply evenly to apple that's the debate we'll began to have >> up next, we'll explain were this shot shows having had a balanced portfolio in stocks and it bonds has been hurting investors.

>> we why conagra is considered a turkey of a stock. that's coming up

in baltimore, a community sees new life rise from ruin. in southern california, a small family business becomes a beacon of hope. in seattle, people with disabilities create success and shatter barriers. day in, day out, people prove that when we work as one, we have the power to create better futures for us all. the vanguard balance index fund performing worse than the broader stock market this year lower by 2%. >> mike santoli with what it means for bonds. >> it shows you bonds have lost

money. this is really a check krupp in a way on the typical retirement fund this is an index fund that's just 60% stocks and 40% bonds and index funds for both of those allocations so it's basically sort of the tiz portfolio allocation for a lot of people, and it's down by 1% on a one-year basis and the s&p 500 is up on a one-year basis and it's also underperforming on a year-to-date basis, and essentially owning 40% of your portfolio in bonds did not provide the insulation that historically has happened when stocks go down and bonds typically went up, and what you see here is it's pretty much trading at the lows from february even though the stock market is not at the lows, so it points up this changed environment. for about the last 20 years, when stocks went down, you did get a bit into bonds because i think you feared deflation this flipped in the last year or so, so it sort of changes the overall risk profile of a portfolio. >> i guess, mike, you know, we discussed coming into that that

bonds had had an extraordinary decade, multi-decade run and particularly fueled in the last decade by qe, and that came to an end the question now for those people that won that traditional 60/40 splice is whether what we saw in the ten-year was a peak for the next year or so. >> then the traditional balance could come into play. >> it's not a nasty bear market in bonds and it's become a stable place to put your money, which is really all you want you're not really trying to earn a lot of returns from your bond portfolio, but it does just show you that it could change what people think about the expectations for the return that you can get over a longer period of time. >> mike, thanks so much. >> well, let's take a look at how we finish the day on wall street the dow actually dipped into negative territory right at the close, down -- down, well fractions only, but it was in the red. the s&p was up .3%, and the nasdaq up 1% week to date we're still markedly lower, about 3% lower

for the nasdaq and monday and tuesday's selling outweighed by today's gains. >> it lost almost 100 points in the final hour of trade and saving low volume and low liquid did i, sort of a bounce or buy you didn't get it today. >> sector performance did show most of those underperformed monday and tuesday and bouncing back but without much conviction of volume. time for a cnbc news update with sue herera is indeed back as promised >> i am, as promised. >> here's what's happening at this hour, everyone. president trump responsibilitying to chief justice john roberts, the president tweeting that there are in fact, quote, obama judges and saying that the ninth circuit is not an independent judiciary. earlier today the chief justice defended the judiciary against criticism from the president saying, quote,we do not have obama judges or trump judges, end quote. more companies are asking for their political contributions back from

republican senator sindi hyde smith of mississippi she made a joke about attending a hypothetical public hanging and amgen joins the list that includes at&t, walmart and pfizer, and if you're going to wake up at 4:00 in the morning to go shopping on black friday or tomorrow, you are going to need to be well caffeinated. good thing then that in addition to black friday, it's also national espresso day so dunkin' donuts and starbucks are offering deals. and finally, a hero dog in florida saved his observer from a fire that is gator, and he woke his owner casey meadows when the house started to burn. gator jumped on her and licked her hair and they got out just before the roof collapsed. that house was completely destroyed, but luckily gator and casey are both fine, and gator got a really big bone out of the deal so that's good. there we go. >> gator became her aid. >> exactly. >> there you go.

>> i got it. gate or aid. >> that was good, wilf. >> not that funny. >> it was good have a great holiday. >> happy thanksgiving. >> you, too. >> still ahead retail stocks outperforming the broader market ahead of the holiday shopping rush. coming up, we'll tell you which stocks could be the big winners on black friday and beyond. >>ut b, first, we'll discuss the outlook for a brexit deal when we're joined by ireland's we're joined by ireland's ambassador to the united states. each day, brings new possibilities. that's why you need a partner dedicated ♪

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welcome back uk prime minister theresa may announced a short while ago she would make another emergency return to brussels on saturday in an effort to save her brexit deal after failing to make a breakthrough with jean-claude junker joining us now is the irish ambassador to the u.s. daniel mulhall. we thought brexit was the final hurdle to overcome and that was done just recently should the other 27 member states be getting on board this deal at this stage

>> well, of course, each country has to make up its own mind but the european commission has negotiated on behalf of the 27 european union companies and in the view of our government they have done a very good job coming up this proposal we certainly hope that the proposal will be accepted both by the 27 but also by the uk government because we need to move on, and our aim has always been to expect that brexit will happen and minimize the downside and keep britain as closely connected as possible to the european union and to avoid any hard exit and this deal achieves those goals. >> there's still a lot of hurdles over the iu 27 as explained today or back in the uk, perhaps the biggest hurdle of all, to get theresa may to get her deal through parliament. would you admit that the chance of a no deal is uncomfortably high, and when sort of level would you put that chance at a

moment >> i take the view that a no-deal brexit is such a disastrous outcome for everyone concerned that no sensible person, no sensible leader could probably want to go down that road i think that you can see -- it is the default, ambassador, if nothing gets down. >> i mean, we have to continue to work away we are part of the european union, and we're staying in the european union we will work with our european partners we're happy with what's on the table at the moment and obviously there are some discussions still to come over the weekend, and we hope that the european council on sunday will approve a deal which then can go for ratification to the various european parliament and to the british parliament. >> i'm actually curious, you know, aside from brexit about the status of u.s.-eu trade negotiations we saw that visit from junker several months ago and people were optimistic and then haven't really heard anything.

any progress on this front >> a number of discussions between the european commission which negotiates on behalf of the european union and the american administration. some progress has been made in my understanding, but we're still working away on that the transatlantic trading relationship was so important that we must do everything that we can to keep it on an even keel it's the most important trading relationship in the world, bar none, and there's huge economic interests at stake for both the united states and the european union, and we simply cannot afford to allow that trading and investment relationship to be damaged by temporary disagreements over certain issues those issues were identified by president trump and president junker in july and follow-up work is trying to put shape on that relationship. >> do you think 2019 could be another peak year for european

political risk like 2016 was there's european elections, lots of issues with italy, germany, potential change in the balance of power there and, of course, brexit as well and the u.s.-eu negotiations. >> the european union is a union of 28 member states, 27 from next year onwards, and, therefore, there's always political developments occurring throughout the union in my experience which goes back now more than 40 years, the union has a great capacity to come together and deal with issues and to find compromises, and i am -- i continue to be confident that the european union will -- will also next year rise to whatever challenges may come its way i look back over 40 years, an i've seen how many times we appear to be in a crisis situation with no possible solution in view and yet each time the union came through. we came through the economic crisis of the last decade, for example. if we can do that i believe we can face off positively to the challenges that may come our way

next year. >> ambassador, thanks for joining us ambassador daniel mulhall. >> you're welcome. the black friday sales have already kicked off online, and many stores are going to be open tomorrow to encourage shoppers, so which retailers will emerge as a black friday winner we'll discuss that coming up. >> first, we'll have everything from a stock downgrade to ice cream in our thanksgiving-themed edition of "the takeaway." that's next. when my hot water heater failed, she was pregnant, in-laws were coming, a little bit of water, it really- it rocked our world. i had no idea the amount of damage that water could do. we called usaa.

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>> it is time for the takeaway thanksgiving edition first, shares of conagra brands, owners of butterball turkeys finishing lower today by 1% off this thanksgiving eve. bernstein downgrading the stock from market per tomorrow to underperform citing a slowdown in entre sales frozen was actually had a pocket of strength within the packaged food industry thanks in part to conagra helping to revitalize the industry but bernstein says that may not last. >> the call was about tough comparisons so they are seeing a downslope of it being a tough area stock has had a tough run. seen a little bit as a tariff threat and obviously the tough comparisons. >> next up is people make their last-minute thanksgiving purchases. here's how different grocery stores measure up and provide thanksgiving dinner for eight. whole foods coming in as the most expensive with groceries costing nearly $100 or $12.48

per person i can't get a meal for 12.48 at whole foods. that's still cheap for them. walmart came out as the least expensive reaching a total of 45 or $5.65 per person. sue herera managed to make it 4.80 earlier on the news update. check out more on how the company matched up at cnbc for all of that. all of those sound pretty cheap, each the whole food go it's a relatively, you know, bare bones menu. >> right. >> turkey. >> yeah. >> turkey, mashed -- you have the potatoes and the cranberry. >> whatever the numbers, aren't surprising to see walmart. >> without a doubt. >> maintaining their reputation. >> and there's mass market stories and turkey is a lost leader they will try to mark down the price on that. >> a lot of waste i was reading about as well. >> a lot has been thrown out. >> finally, ice cream brand is celebrating the turkey holiday

by releasing thanksgiving-flavored ice cream. the flavors include cranberry sauce sorbet. >> sounds good. >> really good sweet potato casserole with melted caramel, salted caramel is a flavor that is from portland, oregon, and i'm sort of a expert on this topic. >> i don't like the savory things going in. >> i'm fine with avory, but th idea of a turkey flavoring is odd. >> i don't know which was which there, but salted caramel plus maple pecan. >> salted caramel plus turkey. >> you want four layers of sweet basically. >> just the small offset. >> but i'm not sure about a meaty ice cream. cranberry sorbet, that actually could go on the table rather than cranberry sauce, a little offset. >> get you about $9 a person.

>> we're getting down to the walmart prices. >> retail stocks finishing the day higher as black friday sales kick off will it be a win for the retailers? we'll discuss that coming up. >> and one of wall street's biggest bulls says the bottom is not reethe y he'll reveal why he says more pain to come before a year-end rally which he thinks could actually happen. stay tuned to that forecast.

it's actually been a rough couple much weeks for retailers with nordstrom target kofl all down. >> many believe in black friday could turn it around for the bean are peten down retailer

our guests from oc and c consultants. good afternoon to you both coy, do you feel like the retailers are well prepared for the holiday sfwloonz i think they are as a retailer with black friday moving from one day to the entire promotional season it's a strategy you deploy over the peer i think they probably are ready. we certainly advise our clients to think about it as a long-term period of promotion. >> mike, clearly the consumer in the u.s. is reportedly strong. but there's been a little bit of petitions minimums creeping in do you think it delivers a strong holiday zbloonz i think this is the greatest we have had. the u.s. consumer it's hard to overstate how healthy they are right now. people talk about a consumer debt bubble. if you look at debt service for the skourm as percentage of household income it's the lowest

level for 30 years wage growth, when you add average hourly earnings plus a number of hours worked you are up over 5.5% year over year. i think this is a great holiday season just a matter of execution at different companies. and overall sentiment who is punished and who is rewarded with the stock price. >> at your consulting firm are you dividesing retailers right now. >> yes we are. we advise everyone from the digital players through the multichannel retamers large multichannel retailers. >> who has the winning strategy. >> at any size you can have a winning strategy i certainly think if you think about the key success factors, being -- ungd the consumer journey is critical. knowing which channels they engage with online, off lineup, social and also providing service that customers expect. with that in mind you can -- you can definitely win >> there's been so much focus on just how much it's costing the

bigger traditional retailers. >> sure. >> to anticipate in this new world. is that a rush of spending that they are going to have to do and put in place or is this the new run rate. >> i think it is a new run rate. you have to think about pass a retailer what that means for the rest of the operation and think about how you adjust the costs accordingly. >> in terms of mike the breakdown between the consumer discretionary and consumer staple names, which do you think perform best >> look, i still think that the economy has a couple more years to run and i think discretionary outperforms staples. in some pullbacks you might get relative outperformance in staples. but i still like amazon and like it more at 1,500 than i do at 2000 they are a giant behemoth and not going anywhere it seems that story gets better however it's a high price and a lot of volatility to get involved with there. >> all right, guys we will is he as the results start coming in

the next few months. thanks for the preview np coy nooks and mike lee. >> and macy's ceo joins squawk on the street on the firps on cnbc interview 9:00 a.m. black friday. >> as the balloons for the macy's thanksgiving day parade get inflated ton preponderate you might want to think about the turkey day conversation starters, market, money, politics >> i thought you weren'tud l to talk about politics. >> some people enjoy it. but we will talk about the topics that could dominate the feast.

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bitcoin dominated the confidential at last year's thifgt table on a tear at that point. this may dominate for a different reason now down 36%. >> this is your table sfl everybody was talking about it when it ran up 20,000 in december. >> we have to be fair it then ran up a lot but now a lot lower. >> correct probably not as mot a conversation starter this year. >> another big mover, since last thanksgiving, advance auto parts up 94% everyone was talking about it last year. >> everyone was talking about

that. >> and will be again, certainly those that have held the stock they won't have to get the $4.80 meal that sue outlined pu with you different for ge, the worst performer since then down, ouch, 57%. >> so what's the big conversation topic at this year's table. >> at this year's table. >> for us. >> if you're a finance family. >> you know, i think it's kind of what happened this year that we're in this spot of actually with a great economy worrying about what the markets are up to if you cared about that sort of thing? >> people are going to feel it in the 401(k)s. >> it's a bit of confusion it's not necessarily -- what's interesting about the psychology of people in the markets is that even those thinking this isn't over yet we can get another rally they think it's late it's almost the last hura psychology surrounding the markets. whether true or not i feel like that's the thrust of the

forecast. >> i'm going to try to bring it back to a serious point. if people are talking about the stocks across the country or retail investors isn't that sign we are a late stage? i have seen some serious hedge fund managers say everyone over the summer netflix, amazon, google >> and his mother asked him if we were in a recession. >> i would doubt that if the conversation happens tomorrow it's about would you look at that amazon down $500 since september. i think it's more likely that people are more anxious about how things are going but the job market is great things most people care about looks okay i don't think it's real angsty. >> see how the consumers do on shopping, whether they start the black friday i like to wait until january because the deals are better. >> there you go. >> this is how you buy christmas presents, it's helpful as a brit that doesn't have the discounts. the most important thing of

course we should all discuss is how thankful we are. >> absolutely. >> for each other, for a great team, and great viewers thank you for watching. >> on friday we have a special black friday edition of "closing bell." there we are, we will be here at noon be sure to tune in remember it's a holiday shortened trading day. markets close at 1:00. live 12:00 to 2:00 why does your face look skinnier than mine in that picture. >> i can't say but it won't be friday eating lots. happy thanksgiving, "fast money" starts now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking sometimes are times square tim seymour, karen finerman, guy adami. nastiness whipping out gains but the fund saturate has three names he calls best buys