it's 5:00 a.m. 5:00 a.m. at the woodbridge mall in new jersey where you are looking at retail's big day getting under way. forget cybermonday, amazon front and center today some retail therapy. china ramping up the rhetoric ahead of next week's g20 meeting. a brexit break through, we'll tell you about that. and nissan ousting its long-time chairman carlos ghosn. all those stories and more coming up on this friday, november 23rd.

"worldwide exchange" begins right now. good morning good afternoon good evening i'm so happy to be having you with us is here's how your money and global markets are setting up their day stock futures are tra s ars are1 down the stock market closes early today. 1:00 close for equities. 2:00 close for bonds i'm not sure i would put credence in the futures, but if you care, we're down 53. it's been a tough week our rbi today will tell you how bad it's been this week for stocks pre-thanksgiving. we're making history here. maybe not the kind that we want to make. oil is open for trading. it's down again.

crude off 2.5% to 53.20 per barrel gasoline prices should follow. gas prices will look like this chart. they should continue to come down we'll have much more on the markets coming up. first to your top story. what else could it be besides retail some 116 million americans, like all the americans, are expected to do some form of shopping today making it one of retail's biggest days let's go live to courtney reagan at the woodbridge mall in new jersey i almost pass it on my way to work i should have done the show with you and saved myself a commute >> you should have that would have been friday. black friday has changed it's still exciting. but the timing has really stretched out. so thanksgiving is a huge day. many, many americans, maybe as many as 34 million americans shopped yesterday on thanksgiving today black friday is still expected to be a big day

you said 116 million americans deloitte is up to 70% possibly of america will be shopping today. here at the woodbridge mall, you can see it's quiet now that's because the mall is closed just for a bit here shoppers can go home and take a breather we got a touch of an update from what happened last night at the stores, traffic was steady all night long stores had door busters wednesday night. phones, toys, gaming consoles and tvs were some of the most popular items. target says shoppers placed two times as many black friday order pick ups than they did last year so utilizing those convenience options that the retailers are offering, where you can buy online and pick up in store for even faster delivery when you're basically delivering it yourself online has become a really big part of shopping across america

every day, especially on holidays like this you're sitting on the couch, you're getting ready to do some browsing and buying. so thanksgiving could be setting some records the quote is that thanksgiving is on track to be one of the fastest growing retail days in online shopping history. in fact as of 5:00 p.m. thanksgiving, online sales were up almost 29% for 3$3.7 billion adobe expects that 5$5.9 billion more will be spent here today on brack frida black friday that's an increase of 17 as far as top items online we have the nintendo switch, the call of duty black ops 4, hp laptops, chromecast and others so it's shaping up to be a big day of retail. it's one of my favorite days of the year >> i'll stop by on my way back home and we'll talk.

>> it is i will take you shopping >> no. >> i'll take you through how this goes. >> no. courtney, thank you. it will be a long day. >> let's bring in stacey widlitz president of sw retail advisers, cnbc contributor i know you're oversays -- overseas, but happy thanksgiving >> i brought you a gift here a martini apple turkey >> a little nudge to my hokies here's the thing we know people will shop and spend money. the number also be good. here's the question. will any retailer make money off those sales because they've been spending so much to upgrade infrastructure and systems >> exactly you and i talked about that last time i was on. revenues are really good consumers are shopping however target just talked about

people doing more pick up in store which requires more fulfillment and people while there's top line growth, the bottom line growth is a bit under pressure because of all the investment that is necessary to fulfill all of the consumers wishes here. that's what we saw last week with target, with nordstrom. the top line was there investors were not happy with the lack of flow through and the profitability. >> as investors we say good here, not so good here how do you think it notes out? >> what we've seen is we look at stocks and we say they're investing for the long term and they get fearful and say next year's numbers will look muted in the long term you have to pick the retailers who are investing. those are the ones who win and who survive. that's certainly kohl's, target,

they have two-day free ship. kohl's is bringing in amazon to drive traffic, bringing in aldi to drive traffic they're doing smart, creative things those are the guys who will win and who you want to own for the long-term. >> not every stock is down it's been a tough go the last month. a lot of stocks are down one stock up nicely is ulta beauty how do they keep winning >> yes so ulta is really the disruptor of the department store space and the cosmetics business you go into a department store, they try to push product at you, you go home looking like a clown. you go into ulta, that's not how their incentivized it's basically taking the cosmetic experience and changing it and making it consumer friendly that's a stock that's been a top performer and will continue to be it's just changing the way the

consumer shops >> who do you think might be left on the pile, so to speak? the discount rack and maybe underperform who is not looking good? i hate to be negative on the day after thanksgiving, but who is not looking good >> we just love black friday, we want to be positive all day here, but there are still losers out there. i think the retail space, while we've gone through a wave of consolidation, there's still more to come there's more to come with j.c. penny. bad bath needs store shrinking l brands, and the gap seems to be closing stores forever. they've n they're not done they're havinging o inin ining e biggest discounts today, 50% off everything i don't think we're finished here in terms of retail pain >> it's 12 degrees here in new

jersey feels like 6 feels cold >> i just want to know what to wear >> gap sweater, 50% off. stacey widlitz, thank you very much we'll see you soon >> good to see you staying with retail a big interview coming up later you cannot miss. the macy's ceo, they got a lot riding on this season. catch that interview at 9:00 a.m. moving to corporate news, new fallout in the strange saga of carlos ghosn. nissan ousting him as chairman as more details trickle out regarding what he allegedly did wrong with nissan money. kate rogers has more >> the nissan board voted to remove carlos ghosn as chairman as more details emerge about how he used corporate money for perm use. ghosn was arrested on monday on

suspicion of conspireing to lower his reported income by millions of over a five-year period no charges have been filed as of yet. nissan found ghosn used a subsidiary in the netherlands to spend about $18 million to buy and renovate personal homes including a condo in rio and a house in beirut. the "journal" says he made older payments to his older sister for consulting but nissan found no evidence she did such work greg kelly a long-time lieutenant to ghosn was the mastermind kelly has been stripped of his representative director title. they remain on the board but that decision will be up ashare% renault is down about 5% >> kate, we'll see you in a few

minutes. >> thanks. keeping an eye on shares of apple. there are two stories that we are following. first the "wall street journal" saying apple is looking to cut the price of its iphone xr in japan, all in an effort to help boost sales, this follows the underwhelming launch in that country. also today new reports that am's biggest supplier, foxconn is reporting weak er growth. by the way, apple stock is down 19% just this month. one of the worst months for apple stock ever we are just getting started on a friday. "worldwide exchange," up next, china ramping up the rhetoric and a big brexit break through a double dose of trade headlines coming your way. and lateron, more on the black friday bonanza more on the retail winners and

losers when we come back

it's 5:14. it's a wonderful time of the year, but let's be honest about something, there's 32 days between now and christmas. the longest possible period between thanksgiving and christmas. so our only goal is to make you

as sick of christmas music by that time as possible. stock futures are down a bit. it's been a tough month for stocks a tough week your rbi at the end of the show, we'll tell you how weak this week has been. dow with a potential drop of 70 points the stock market closes early today. 1:00 close tough day in china shanghai down 2.5% the domestic chinese market down 22% this year. by far the worst market in all of asia. speaking of china-based companies, hauwei is coming under fire from washington the "wall street journal" says the u.s. is trying to persuade key allies from using huawei's gear th earlier this year the trump administration moved to tighten restrictions on huawei and other telecom makers like zte. you can see telecom makers did

fall in asia on that news. also today, china rejecting new accusations from the united states that its trade practices are unfair the foreign minister calling the claims groundless. the new war of words comes as president trump and chinese president xi jinping are expected to meet at next week's g20 summit in argentina. that is an important meeting sticking with trade, a potential break through in the brexit battle. the uk and the eu approving a draft agreement on future relationships after britain leaves the eu. the deal inclut cludes a deal fn ambitious and balanced draft deal nick joins us now. i want to ask you about this, we

have those headlines which seem good, the spanish are still rattling the cage, saying they may veto any deal. how big of a break through might this actually be for a brexit deal >> think of this as stage one. it's a mini break through. this is an agreement between the uk and the eu, but the bigger challenge from the uk perspective is that the deal needs parliamentary approval that is likely to happen in december so that is the key hurdle that the prime minister has to get over from a uk perspective >> okay. so we shouldn't be buying anything on this news. we should be watching it paying attention to it, but this is not an investment changer kind of headline, is it? >> well, only on a tactical basis. there's two ways that investors can trade this the first is to be short gilt. the second is to be long

sterling so expect a bit of a mini bounce in both of those over the weekend. but of course that bigger bounce comes when we get through the parliamentary approval if you're thinking in terms of dollar versus sterling, there's no reason if parliamentary approval happens that that rate can't be 1.40. let's ta >> the federal reserve's next meeting is the 18th and 19th of december it's a press conference meeting. the market expecting another rate hike. do you think if we keep getting this kind of weak equity market, maybe concerns about a slowdown, that the federal reserve will not raise rates in a couple weeks? >> no. when you look at the federal reserve, at the moment they're on autopilot december is a done deal. next year the same then it's much more of an open

question when you focus on the june meeting, that's when it becomes data dependent what we're seeing now may be a soft patch, they can go again in june if this soft patch becomes more permanent, you can then start to question later rate hikes from union wardjun june onwards >> this just a soft patch, nick? >> it's a soft patch when you think of any economy, they have little ups and downs when you step back, the reality is the u.s. economy is in rude health what is likely to support the economy is finally consumers and workers are starting to get some more meaningful wage increases

>> big day stateside nick, a pleasure thank you very much. >> up next, countdown to shutdown president trump raising new red flags about a new deadline and a potential government shutdown. it is deja vu all over again later on, call it main street's super bowl. it may be black friday big companies all excited, but small businesses are gearing up for what could be one of their biggest days of the year we'll tell you about that coming up something is transforming and our world.. it's the longevity economy - americans 50+ driving 7.6 trillion dollars... of economic activity every year. right before our eyes, aging is unleashing exponential growth... ...in every industry. are you ready? we are. a-a-r-p is teaming up

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welcome back 5:22 on this friday morning. stock futures are losing more steam. it's been a rough week already a short day of trading equity markets closing at 1:00 oil continues to slide as well crude oil down about 2.5% to 53.18. we're pretty much on one-year lows for crude oil prices. we're seeing that fall natural gas down about 3%. in political news, president trump warning about a possible government shutdown. he says this could come over issues surrounding security on the border with mexico congress is facing a deadline next month to fund parts of the

federal government and a possible showdown over money for trump's proposed border wall let's check now on the other headlines outside of the world of money and business. richard liu has more praki in alabama, one perso dead and several others injured after a shooting at a river chase mall two people got into a fight. one pulled out a gun and shot the other. the gunman tried to flee but was shot and killed by police. victims of the woolsey fire in southern california spent thanksgiving enjoying a warm meal thanks to the help of volunteers there malibu and other organizations came together to host the malibu strong community thanksgiving held at pepperdine university. in addition to the thanksgiving meal, clothes and toys were donated. the woolsey fire is now fully contained but it burned over

90,000 acres and killed three people. tiger woods and phil mickelson tee off in vegas today for a one-on-one winner takes all pay-per-view match worth $9 million. both players and their caddies will have live mics during the event. they'll have to keep their spurltives hespur t spurlti spurltives to a minimum. >> i know both of those guys are struggling to make it. i hope one can finally accomplish their dreams. >> 9 million >> you and i play for 9 bucks. appreciate it. still ahead, the black friday blowout the biggest shopping day or one of them is under way a breakdown of retail's big winners and maybe some losers coming up. amazon making headlines this morning. it has nothing to do with black friday the big streaming mix-up that has everybody talking today. that's coming up stick around

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. you're looking live at the mall of america in minnesota black friday shopping is about to get under way in a couple hours. it's early and they're already getting ready. the big focus on amazon. could some retail therapy be just what that struggling stock needs? small business across america gearing up for what

could be their biggest weekend of the year. we have a pulse on the backbone of america's economy that is you, the small business owner as "worldwide exchange" rolls on ♪ thank you for being with us on this black friday here is how your money and investments are looking. it's been a tough couple of days stock futures indicating it may not be better today. it's a short trading day equity markets close at 1:00 bond markets close at 2. oil is moving, down about 2.5% to $53 and change per barrel the upside there is if you drive price of gasoline is likely to continue to slide. as always more in the

markets coming up. we start your day with what else retail millions of people will be out shopping so what kind of deals might they expect let's get out to frank holland live at a best die in southern new jersey frank? >> good morning, brian we're here at the best buy in deptford, new jersey this store won't reopen until 8:00 a.m i'm saying reopen because best buy like so many big box retailers, they were opening on thanksgiving day best buy opened up at 5:00 p.m. on the holiday they just closed at 1:00 a.m seeing people like these shopping on the holiday itself is an emerging trend that brick-and-mortar stores are hoping will give a jolt to the holiday season, and for best buy the fourth quarter as a whole. the company reported q3 earnings on wednesday they had a strong beat on eps and revenue but shares falling since then overall the stock is down more than 3% for the year the company offered weak

guidance for q4. on the earnings call the ceo said he was optimistic about this holiday season forecasting that tvs, gaming and home devices would be strong sellers. he also said he wanted to make best buy a one-stop shop as door beusters, best buy is selling fire tv in a partnership with amazon. also a discount on the iphone x. a major change for best buy is an expanded toy section. we're talking barbies, traditional toys and tech toys as part of an effort to attract shoppers who shopped at toys "r" us before they shut down they are also free no minimum shipping, and same-day delivery options. management says they wanted to make this a place where people shop early and often they'll offer new deals on saturday as well as on cybermonday. the idea is to get people in here as many times as they can

to get those tvs and gaming systems and home devices back to you. >> i'm on best buy's website now, not because i'm shopping but poking around for the story. 55-inch television for $249, frank. did you pick up a couple >> i might pick up one to watch the hokies or the pitt football team we'll get to bragging rights later. >> our season is cooked. good luck to the panthers. i hope you do it it's not our year. we have to beat uva today and everything will be okay. i hope you're warm it's like 6 degrees right now. >> it's definitely cold. my ears are getting cold we expect people to line up here shortly. we'll try to use body heat to keep everybody warm as people search for the deals >> the deals will keep them form frank holland, stay warm

we'll see you soon >> thank you >> let's bring in jan rogers kniffen. what we try not to do is throw water on the top story you have a big story, you want to sell it, that's what you do in television. black friday, does it maintain that title it used to have it seems like it's black friday every day now. >> it's black friday from about november 1st to the end of december however we will have about 140 million people shopping day. >> so it's still a big deal. >> will probably be the third biggest selling day. >> you often here, no offense to anybody else in the media, it is the busiest shopping day of the year it can be. but traditionally it's the saturday before christmas, correct? >> more people will walk through stores today than any other day. >> but not the highest revenue shopping day we care about money. >> the highest revenue is always

the saturday before christmas. >> we don't want thousands of people walking through store and leaving. we want people to buy things where will people buy things >> everybody is selling toys now. toys "r" us won't win, they're not there anymore. if you looked atwal mar walmart they'll be a winner. they'll be a winner. macy's is the gift giving place. >> why do you say that >> it's the number one place to buy gifts. >> says who, you >> says me yes. no, says all the statistics. they are the place to buy gifts. they always have been. they still are they're doing a good job today >> i'm looking at a stock down over the last couple of months >> it's hard to find any that are not down i said if you reported good sales and good earnings you were

down 10% if you reported bad sales, bad earnings, you were down 20% >> even the winners are losing >> even the winners are losing >> you think they're getting caught up in the macro market or are the retailers telling us a story that earnings have peaked, recession may be coming. this is as good as it will be. >> isn't the story the market is telling you? both retailers and the market are telling the same story interest rates are going up. we have to invesz mont money ba business this is as good as it gets >> who do you love stacey widlitz was loving on ulta beauty. >> i love ulta beauty. >> you do. >> yes they're doing a great job. >> their stock is higher in the last couple of months. one of the view. >> i still love children's place. i love nordstroms, macy's, kohl's, walmart. i love all of the brands

that's ralph, michael kors, tapestry >> you have a kid. i have a 4-year-old. i shop a lot at children's place. the prices are so low. i look and i say how can they make money >> carter's is the price leader. >> it's $4 for a pair of pants how are you making profit on this >> they are making plenty of money. they have done a good job at supply chain, and they are the second biggest player after carter's >> children's place, stock is volatile are they ignored by wall street? they're not given the credit they deserve >> they had a good run for a long time. people always worry about things maybe not being as strong going

forward. i'm a fan of foot locker they turned in a good number if you're trapped in the mall and still doing well, you have to like them >> yeah. is the mall going to make any comeback this year >> no. no the mall traffic is still tough. the great malls are still doing well but malls in general, it's a struggle it will be a struggle for a long time >> retail changes. the mall used to be everything nobody wanted stand-alone. now stand-alone is everything. it's like fashion. will malls come back in fashion? >> your kid will not want to shop the same way you shop you have to stay relevant, cool, reinvent yourself. the malls have had a tough time reinventing themselves what's winning is off mall that's where tj maxx is. that's where burlington is that's where ross is that's where ulta is and chirp's

place is they're all across the street >> i love it macy's, 9:00 a.m. the ceo of macy's will join us. was should we ask him? what would you ask jeff gennette >> i would ask jeff how the investment in technology is doing to drive their business. people are not watching closely enough how much they are doing as a technology company. >> on the boring back end. and the not so boring front end. they're implementing a lot of new stuff. >> jan kniffen, macy's, ulta, foot locker, children's place, pleasure >> let's find out what else you will be talking about today. time for the top trending stories. kate rogers -- hope you had a wonderful thanksgiving i did how was yours? >> it was quick.

when you work this show, you're eating dinner at night, you're like i have to eat in six hours. >> my aunt moved dinner to noon. >> we ate at 7:00. >> i was in bed. the leaning tower of pisa is leaning a little less than previously thought the 12th century tower has been the subject of decades worth of efforts to straighten it out to avoid eventual collapse. it turns out those efforts are working. engineers say the tower has recovered 4 centimeters and it is in better structural health >> they may want to keep it leaning because that's the only reason to go to pisa >> oh, burn. >> no, that's their thing. they have a great university great pizza. but they have the tower. >> the leaning tower users looking for the most recent episode of dr. who on amazon yesterday had a surprise,

instead of streaming the current episode viewers saw themselves watching an episode that wasn't supposed to air until sunday evening. bbc said the episode was released in error and apologized if the episode was spoiled by this mishap. people love spoilers and early releases it's a pleasant surprise i didn't see it. >> maybe they should change the name to dr. when let's see what you come up with for this one. china is using facial recognition technology to catch and publicly shame jaywalkers, but the most recent target was innocent a famous chinese business woman was taught jaywalking by the technology her picture was uploaded to a huge screen, but she was not jaywalking at all. her photo was captured from the ad on the side of a bus. chinese police released a statement admitting their error.

>> could you imagine if we did this in new york 1 million people a day would be shamed everybody. >> something else. >> wow is jaywalking that big of a deal in china >> they have many more people. i guess it's a problem >> kate rogers, thank you very much now let's get you caught up on the world of sports last night the saints hosting the falcons. thanksgiving edition of thursday night football drew brees, 38-year-old on fire this year. connected with tommy lee lewis for a 28-yard touchdown in the first quarter. they secured the lead and never looked back. they won 31-17 falcons 13 1/2 point underdogs did not cover. up next, retail detail black friday may be stealing the headlines, but small business saturday, everything has to be a thing, that's ready to take center stage what you need to watch ahead of main street's big day. and weighing the risks, the key things you need on your radar as

2018 nears its curtain call. and crude is selling off right now, down 5% back below 52 bucks a barrel stick around people tell me all the time i have the craziest job, the riskiest job. the consequences underwater can escalate quickly. the next thing i know, she swam off with the camera. it's like, hey, thats mine! i want to keep doing what i love. that's the retirement plan. with my annuity i know there's a guarantee. annuities can provide protected income for life. learn more at retireyourrisk.org annuities can provide protected income for life. ♪ lean on me, when you're not strong ♪ ♪ and i'll be your friend ♪ ♪ i'll help you carry on ♪

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that is the rockefeller christmas tree it's not lit yet it will take place on thursday it's a big deal for the nbc family they launch it, they light it up people get around it, they sing. the grinch steals stuff. no, that doesn't happen. it will be a beautiful day >> it will be. >> black friday may just be getting started but main street is gearing up for small business saturday, which is ahead of sit at home sunday and cybermonday kate rogers is back with how good this small business saturday will be >> small business saturday in its ninth year and some consumers say they plan to shop small in some way on that day, whether it's in stores or online here's how some business owners are getting ready. >> some of these are the biggest

sellers. >> reporter: for mckenzi there's nothing small about small business saturday. >> it's our busiest day of the year. >> reporter: she has been participating in the american express sponsored holiday since the start. she said a decade on there's r barely any room to stand in her shop the day accounts for 8% of her holiday sales. >> people are trained to know this is the day you support small businesses they want to be here to support us, it's about the show. it's hyped >> reporter: crew lala makes bowtie collars and leashes and more giving back a portion of its profits to animal organizers for the past five years small business saturday sales have doubled. >> good girl >> 40% of our customers from small business saturday were

first-time customers of that, 65% turned into returning customers. having a day that really shows the support to the community is really inspiring it helps us kind of for the rest of the year. >> brian, you will hear a lot of stats today. cnbc and survey monkey did our own poling which showed overall this holiday season shoppers say they will spend less at 28%, 14% said they would spend more we often talk about e-commerce dominating, 61% of our respondents said they prefer to do their shopping in person. >> i any you talk about worry out there. you talk to small businesses all across america it's still jolly now >> it is sentiment has been at or near all-time highs since president trump took office. those numbers are still holding. i think there are some concerns expressed when you talk to small

business owners about a slowdown coming, in this holiday season they're feeling good small business saturday spending did dip last year, but nearly 3 $13 billion. >> i'm not a fan of these marketing things, like cybermonday. that's marketing news. is there any indication this small business push is working >> you hear it from every business owner we interview. this has grown for them. mckenzie said you can barely stand in her shops >> that sounds like a good problem. >> the first year they were doing bloody mary bars now she said we could not serve any drink now because you can barely stand in the store. it has gotten bigger >> standing room only sounds like a good problem to have as a small business owner awesome stuff. thank you. up next, is the worst yet to come why one pro says brace yourself for more volatility as we round

out the year she will make her case next. and we're seeing a selloff in crude oil another leg down happening minutes ago. crude oil at 52 bucks and change watch those oil and gas stocks today. it is a short trading bday but trading is open and it could be a volatile one an act of kindness. an old friend. a new beginning. some welcome relief... or a cause for celebration. ♪ what's inside? ♪ [laughter] possibilities. what we deliver by delivering.

and everyone i've ever opioloved away from me.thing everything. i blew my ankle out and i got prescribed pain pills by my doctor. if making my detox public is gonna help somebody i'm all for it. i just wish i would've had a warning. something is transforming and our world.. it's the longevity economy - americans 50+ driving 7.6 trillion dollars... of economic activity every year. right before our eyes, aging is unleashing exponential growth... ...in every industry. are you ready? we are. a-a-r-p is teaming up with business leaders and innovators... ...sparking new ideas and real solutions.

so, what are you waiting for? welcome back futures are continuing to slide. we were down 50 when we got in at 5:00 a.m. we're now down 123 on the dow jones industrial average all of that is coming with the price of oil things taking a steep drop in the last 10, 20 minutes. oil prices were down 2.5% when we began now down 5%. oil and gas stocks are down 20% and 30% in the past 30 days. energy has become a smaller part of the overall market but it

still matters a lot. let's talk about that and other things with seema shaw from prince pl glob principle global investor. given oil's recent drop in the last couple minutes, i wanted to ask when you look out in a macro way, how does crude oil factor into your investment decisions that you make? >> the thing with oil to remember is that it is a cyclical risk asset. people will be worried that a drop in oil prices is dig nalling more of a consent about global growth. but it's cyclical. there are concerns on the supply side because of what's happening with the various tensions between the u.s. and iran and providing waivers to various countries. there's a supply glut which is feeding through to global demand this is pushing through. then we have technical factors you may have seen the very sharp

move last week and potentially that's the case today. it's difficult to say at this stage, it's about technical factors with people being stopped out of their positions, and then pushes another downward leg in oil prices. >> so oil is part of the macro mix. if you had to factor in one or two most important things to you guys and your team right now, macro, brexit, trade what would it be? >> there's two main things i would say the first is fed tightening how much will they be tightening next year. how does the market deal with it the other thing is the trade war. how much worse will it get and how much of that fear factor is priced into the u.s. from my per spktivspective i th' fully priced in for china. i think for the u.s. people are still early stages in understanding what the impact

could be on the u.s. economy those are the two things just one more thing with oil prices, where it feeds in for us is about how it impacts high yield. energy companies tend to be a huge part of the high yield universe a further downward leg hits high yield spreads. >> you're bringing up such an important point. we were talking about the oil story a few years ago on cnbc when oil prices dropped. people said why are you talking about oil so much? gas prices are down. that's good. no no that's good for retail and consumers, but there's so much debt tied up in the oil markets that needs to be repaid. as prices go down your cash flow slows down or the free cash flow dries up, you have to pay that down how much of this oil story is a debt story >> i lot is a debt story a few years ago the u.s. was a net oil consumer that's changed with shale. so now it's an oil exporter.

so you see a drop in oil prices, it no longer has a positive effect it's somewhat offset by those producers in the u.s. are sending out that oil on the debt side, we've seen a blowout in spreads the key thing for that has been downward drop in oil prices. anything further is creating further credit stress in the market, which is an area where people are concerned about >> that's why we have to watch the hyg, high yield etf. leave us with some optimism. futures are down big right now, how big of a chance is there in about 30 days or so of trading that we get a year-end rally in the u.s. equity market >> it's entirely possible. the first thing to remember is that it is thanksgiving week so liquidity levels are low you will see more volatility bigger moves than you usually would. there is some reason to expect

it wes it we had strong buybacks in november, so there could be some positive news ahead. and retail numbers from black friday and cybermonday could push the market forward. i would say on a positive note into 2019 we don't expect a bear market we don't expect a global recession or a u.s. recession. so there could be further falls in equity markets but by no means a bear market is ahead >> seema, have a great weekend >> thank you let's wrap it up with the morning rbi, you know it's been a rough go for stocks, but if somebody asks you this weekend how bad it's been, tell them this this has been the worst thanksgiving week for the dow jones industrial average since 2011 one of the worst of all time with futures down triple digits now. this week may end up rewriting some of the record books not the records we wanted to see, a weak thanksgiving week.

hopefully random but interesting. maybe things will turn around. could be a big day for the markets. 1:00 close "squawk box" will pick it up i am a family man.

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millions of americans -- no kidding, really -- waking up from their food comas and nfl football overload. now they're hitting malls and superstars in the kickoff to black friday. trading is resuming. the u.s. markets get back to business after giving thanks, but only for a few hours closing bell is 1:00 p.m. today. and carlos ghosn is gone nissan drives him out following his arrest in japan on

allegations of financial misconduct it is friday, november 23, 2018. "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ >> live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box. ♪ >> good morning. welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc. we're live at the nasdaq market site in times square i'm melissa lee along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. our test host is dana telsey let's get to the markets as we set up for this holiday-shortened session. markets do close at 1:00 p.m. today. we have a few hours of trading dow looking down by 124 points s&p is looking to lose about