his arrest in japan on allegations of financial misconduct it is friday, november 23, 2018. "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ >> live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box. ♪ >> good morning. welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc. we're live at the nasdaq market site in times square i'm melissa lee along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. our test host is dana telsey let's get to the markets as we set up for this holiday-shortened session. markets do close at 1:00 p.m. today. we have a few hours of trading dow looking down by 124 points s&p is looking to lose about 14.

nasdaq looking lower by 47 overnight in asia, we had a selloff in shanghai. japan is closed for a public holiday. hang seng down by a third of a percent. in shanghai, down by 2.5%. european equities are digesting german pmi, which was delow expectations a check on treasury yields, ten-year at 3.052% the twos at 2.82%. it is the biggest shopping day of the year. this is a live shot of the mall of america in minnesota. the doors just opened. traffic at the malls and stores expected to peak later this afternoon. many stores open on thanksgiving courtney reagan will give us the

rundown in a few minutes nissan's board voting unanimously to remove carlos ghosn from his post. he was arrested earlier this week on allegations of financial misconduct there are new details emerging that he used company funds to buy personal homes and pay his sister for work she did not perform. phil lebeau will have a breakdown of this story later in the half hour. that at least explains something about what was going on. we didn't really have an idea of what happened there. >> it doesn't explain why he didn't have enough personal wealth to just handle these things why? it's a bigger question >> why he did it that's just a psychological -- >> it's a power thing. the ability to get away with it. >> he's not necessarily -- he doesn't make what some of the

ceos make, like bob iger how much was he making >> 17 million. >> how much does he have >> enough is the answer. >> so 1$100 million does he hav? >> at least. >> what kind of houses are these? he couldn't support his sister in the way she was accustomed to -- >> i'm not disagreeing with you. he needs to lay on a couch to find the answer. >> call dennis kozlowski name your person -- >> history is littered with example examples >> so many people have gone down this road. >> okay. the journal is reporting that the u.s. government is trying to urge others not use huawei technologies. we have a cyberexpert joining us

in the next hour as well on that issue. >> apple is making moves to boost sales of its xr phone in japan. this is a "wall street journal" article as well. the company is looking to cut the price of its new iphone xr in japan to boost sales. that follows an underwhelming launch in that country japanese carriers will use subsidies from apple tos did count the xr the dow component always the top stock to watch so far this morning, 175 >> what was interesting in wednesday's session now with the market doing pretty decently, apple was the underperformer even on a day of relative strength -- >> for the nasdaq. >> apple finished lower that day. >> boeing held on to its gains

that day we were up all day t looked like a rebound day. >> gave it up. >> i still looked at it as a rebound day because of the nasdaq >> so the index that lost the most gained back the most. black friday has arrived many americans are wake up and going shopping apparently. but we came here let's check out the scene at the mall with courtney reagan in woodbridge, new jersey in one of the best states around >> this is her super bowl. >> this is big for you you can't hide your excitement >> it's a great day for many reasons, eating turkey, going shopping the mall is reopening here at about 6:00 a.m millions of americans are expected to hit the stores today. something like 116 million 34 million yesterday it's a big day and a big

tradition. walmar walmart's chief operating manager said traffic was steady all night long in stores across the country. they offered wednesday night phones, toys, gaming consoles, tvs both in store and online online shopping has become a big part of this season. walmart was the top searched retailer, then best buy. kohl's came in third walmart, 80% more black friday searches associated with it than best buy according to a panel of more than 300 shoppers, about 55% of shoppers say the deals are about the same as we saw last year but inventory is pretty good with 87% of those advertised deals still available. that's important adobe says look at thanksgiving

day yesterday. they think that thanksgiving day is on pace for one of the fastest growing retail days in online history as of 5:00 p.m., sales were up 29% online, on pace for 3$3.7 billion day. 5$5.9 billion expected to be spent online today some of the top items, nintendo switch, call of duty black ops 4 game, drones, fingerlings, lol a lot of toys, a lot of lelect n electron electronics. the day is just beginning here i hope you're ready, we'll bring you updates all day long >> courtney reagan, we will talk to you later throughout the day. joining us now to continue this conversation is dana telsey and lela snyder is here. what are we looking for? what is the -- have you done your rounds yet?

>> i've been around. i've been to macy's, abercrombie, to gap. i've been in the stores and seen the crowds >> and >> seems busy. sales associates i spoke to at many stores said it was busy today but it will be nothing compared to tomorrow today is game on for black friday >> what did you see moving >> what you see moving is outerwear. it's cold outside. when it's 15 or 12 degrees, we have outerwear moving. footwear is moving we see denim jeans, an apparel revival is going on. you're seeing that working >> what about electronics? >> drones. it's a drones christmas. anything smart whether it's smartphones -- >> drones christmas. >> that's what people are buying we used to talk about how fashion was done and over. everybody was buying iphones is that reversed >> it's no longer either or,

it's about with. when you think about electronics in best buy yesterday it was packed in terms of foot traffic. they're all looking at the phones >> is there ever a day where you're worried your tour of duty is being done ncorrectly i ask myself, i don't want to go to the stores. it's too crowded too annoying i can do the same thing on the computer it may be easier for you to track, but it's harder to track by moez ziing around >> that's why i've been doing this weekly trend report i look at websites, looking at year over year, week over week, did promotions increase or decrease looking at those websites compared to last year, they're the same the promotional rates, 50% >> you approach it from the shipper's standpoint you see what's going out the door do you get a good gauge? i found when you order from one

retailer t co er tshg retailer, it comes in five different boxers how do retailers make money if they ship in five different boxes or are charging or at discounted fee >> you will see that less this season the online order flow has been great. you heard the adobe stat we see great traffic coming in to black friday. we expect that to continue >> what we saw in the macy's report, the revenue is going higher on e-commerce, but there are delivery costs, investments. how are they dealing with the costs of shipping? are they absorbing it? >> there's no doubt free shipping is the thin are looking for online you will see most retailers this holiday season offering free shipping sometimes with no minimum. we've seen that with the largest retailers out there.

the retailers are absorbing that and absorbing that in different ways >> i assume they then had to move the prices up to accommodate for that cost, unless the answer is they haven't. that's why the margins are not there. >> it's a bit of both. >> what is the cost of a return? i was thinking about this. >> because of all the free returns, too >> in this day of e-commerce, it's like send me five pairs of whatever the size is, figure it out, and then -- but the cost of just physically handling that on the way back >> even the delivery back to a brick-and-mortar store there's an idea that you get to the brick-and-mortar store and you will buy more. maybe that's true, maybe it's not. have you done it on a per product basis? >> end to end? >> end to end. does it cost them 5 bucks? 3 bucks? >> 5 bucks is the right range. >> how is that different than if you did it at a straight brick-and-mortar old school ten

years ago? >> it's harder to measure. because that lost labor hour if you have your store associates instead of selling restocking those goods, it's hard to quantify how much that costs. >> final question, the thing that i'm very curious about is we keep talking about the health of the consumer, what's happening with the stock market. do we think or in your mind and dana can speak to this for hours now, when you look at what's going on, do you think things are great or that actually all of the anxiety and the headlines we've seen in the papers about china, this and that is, that affecting people >> at pitney bowes we serve hundreds of retailers, we look across a wide range, we see confidence strong. all looks good going forward what do you think about the health of the retailers? >> will be interesting particularly with labor rates. hundreds of thousands of employees are coming on to seventh holiday. we'll have to wait until the

holiday season is over, but for sure costs will be higher this season >> thank you very much dana will stick around for the rest of the show macy's's ceo will be on "squawk on the street" at 9:00 a.m. eastern time. i saw him yesterday at 9:00 a.m. eastern time with his big size s scissors cutting the ribbon for the macy's day parade. the "wall street journal" sa sa says it is gathering information on the billionaire investor, shares of facebook are down this morning. did you see part of this was sheryl sandberg admitted in a memo on wednesday right before the holidays, i'm not sure how many people were focused on this, she came out and said originally i didn't know about this firm they hired then she said actually i don't

think i really knew, but i've gone through the e-mails, my team has gone through the e-mails, they did send me e-mails about this before. maybe not specifically the george soros item but that they hired this firm and there were e-mails and traffic from this firm >> when the former head of policy and communications says yes we did hire the firm, it's kind of hard to say i didn't know about it or we didn't do it >> balloons were low >> they're tethered now. the winds were high. >> did you see any of them get filled up the night before >> of course we did. >> that's in your hood >> that's the sorkin family tradition. >> does anyone really sing >> are you talking about the milli vanilli style -- >> yes >> i'm going to give it up for kelly clarkson i believe she does >> she does sing not everyone does. >> i agree i think -- >> bare naked ladies were playing electric guitars and

there were no chords and there was some song about a drumstick. that was good. i did see some other people milli vanilli it you loved milli vanilli. >> i did >> when that happened -- >> my world was up-ended >> that was the first time i discovered -- i didn't know about that as a kid until milli vanilli. >> was it like learning santa claus was not real >> kind of >> it's an nbc product >> i can't believe you said that on the air >> santa claus >> i can't repeat it >> who >> melissa >> sorry to all the children out there watching "squawk box" the day after thanksgiving >> i was watching the parade i went back and forth. if someone from another country watched this, they would think it's so commercial

it's all about the -- >> i was thinking what a great, great tradition. it brought tears to my eyes. every year i'm just so happy that's on. >> you think about it as a parade for capitalism. >> it brings more tears to my eyes you're right ♪ what happened? >> we're going to talk about china, but we had this deep conversation on the side >> i love it i do who are all those people singing? are they all new some of them are 14. ♪ >> they have it, milli vanilli this is it >> look at the smile on your face >> that's cute >> they have one thing ♪ >> go.

go let's talk about the broader markets and the economy. joe lavorgna is a cnbc contributor and joins us joe, we saw you not too long ago. andrew, i think, was kind of talking about something that i want to ask you. when a market goes into a correction, you start questioning everything that you believed about the macro view. sometimes it's not necessarily correlated many times it is. the volatility, look at the market today, it's down 112. is that related to a slowdown in the economy or is it more of a market phenomenon? >> more of the latter. people are concerned about the growth outlook here in the u.s. and abroad we had weak data in japan and in europe you have the fed who was walkish about eight weeks ago saying

they were planning on continuing to raise rates past neutral. my guess is that this is temporary and we'll find a bottom and markets will recover. >> a lot of times it may be totally unrelated when you have tech stocks so extended. i don't know whether it was a bubble, but there were two or three that were trillion dollar market cap companies we know about the f.a.n.g. stocks, how well they had done if those retrench, it doesn't mean that the tax cut was a failure. it doesn't mean that the idea that we could grow at 3% maybe for at least a year and it doesn't mean that all bets are off. i'm seeing people say that >> the tax cut, for whether it's good or bad, it needs to be judged in the fullness of time that means it will take a while. we have to look back a few years

to see how good it was people who didn't like the tax cut now say that the economy is slowing because it got the lift earlier from the tax cut we don't know yet. what was good about the tax cut was the lowering of corporate tax rates, the incentive for capital spending whether that produce the effects people believe it will is not known yet. the economy has been healthy the consumer has been good there's been a valuation on some of these tech companies being high that's why the momentum in those companies got hurt when rates moved up in relative terms quite high a few weeks ago we're just dealing with that now. the economy should benefit from a healthy business backdrop. >> the other thing that people are pointing to is debt. corporate debt new highs in personal debt you have got $21 trillion

deficit. even if we are growing it seems like there's a per sception that there's a wall we will run into as the fed continues to go up. does that concern you? is that true >> joe, on the corporate side you're right on the household side, household dea debt is back to where it was 15 years ago. you have a tight labor market, signs that wages are growing at some point the debt will do us in. nothing says we have to slow that we have go into recession look at australia. they've been growing since the early '90s it comes down to policy next year do republicans and democrats work together to come in with an infrastructure bill do we make improvements on healthcare there's a lot of things that if we do can extend this business cycle longer nothing says we have to slow or

next year has to be bad. i don't believe that >> there's a perception that maybe the fed is starting to soften its position on maybe next year or if they don't -- if the dot plot doesn't change, the commentary after they hike in december, that that will show that they're more in tune with the possibility that the global growth is not what it used to be do you agree with that >> i do i've made the argument that the fed is way too academic powell's comments from a week or two ago seems like he might be shifting that. i would expect over the next few years and possibly as early as next wednesday that the chairman does soften his tone a bit and produces uncertainty around those dots i don't think they'll change the dots i think the dots with three

hikes next year and another, that won't change. but the confidence the fed has in fulfilling that path might be in question. that could stabilize the markets. >> would you agree -- your view is that the economy is fine and strong does that necessarily mean you think the fed should actually ignore the concerns of the market and go ahead? it sounds like you think they should continue tightening >> they'll hike in december because the momentum is there. people have been talking about it it's a political issue if they don't go beyond that the markets are forward looking. inflation has moved back below the fed target three-month rate of change has fallen below 2 so the fed has the excuse with the global economy looking more shaky to say we're not -- we're data dependent we're not on autopilot where we have to hike it's that little shift in tone that would be enough to steady investors. >> we have dana here

this is an important retail season this could either confirm it in a big way or we're left not knowing -- are we in a 3% gdp economy? is that reflect in the way consumers are acting >> they are acting that way. we'll see an increase in excess of 5% for the holiday season, that compares to a 5% increase last year. that's a good holiday season >> i'm shaky i'm wounded by the market. apple, we believe we're -- >> down 25% from the highs >> i think it's not for today but for tomorrow i'm worried about the first half of 2019 lapping these tax reforms, lapping the wage increases. it's comping the comp. it's a margin squeeze. >> a lot of times, lav ljoe, the

market can be self-fulfilling. >> absolutely. >> we never talked about the chicken and egg and decided which one has come first >> in this case it's the fed i'm hoping they don't lay an egg, which they always seem to do the reason they think academically is because they're a bunch of academics >> listen, don't tell liesman that >> i know. my god, i know he's great, isn't he any way -- thank you, joe lavorgna >> why did you do that don't do that. i'll call you, we'll talk. thanks coming up, nissan is ousting long-time chairman carlos ghosn, new details are emerging about the scandal. phil lebeau has the latest on the story next

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welcome back to squ"squawk box. nissan's board deciding to give

carlos ghosn the boot. phil lebeau has more on the details. phil >> good morning. it looks like nissan is moving forward with stripping carlos ghosn of almost all power he had within the company renault is taking a more wait and see approach here are the details that have come out over the last 24 to 48 hours. and with regard to carlos ghosn's chairmanship of nissan, they said the other day they would boot him out of that job they did it officially the board voting to strip him of the chairman title he is still on the board until the shareholders vote to remove him. that will happen in the next couple of months he remains in detention in tokyo. there's no time frame for formal charges to be filed against carlos ghosn some details in reports out of japan regarding the scandal. one of them is that carlos ghosn's sister was reportedly paid more than $100,000 for con sumtdi

sultding work she never did. ghosn also ordered payment of 1$1.5 million for house renovation work. that's according to nhk. the prosecutor's office in japan said there are those who call this a minor instrucfraction the fact he's been held and investigated for filing reports where his income was misstated, there are those who call this a minor infraction, but in fact it is ranked among the gravest offenses when it comes to financial crimes in japan. look at shares of nissan and renault. guys, there is an undercurrent here that many people have really not been aware of until this scandal broke there's growing tension between nissan and renault in this alliance renault owns 43% of nissan nissan owns 15% of renault for a long time the feeling in japan was the folks in france are trying to call the shots

with regard to this alliance even though nissan sells more vehicles and in many ways is a much more powerful company that's the undercurrent behind this tension and the growing scandal involving carlos ghosn >> what's the latest on renault, phil the board has met, correct >> they met. they met and they kept him as chairman while they investigate this matter and look for more details and more information out of japan that could change at some point. effectively he's in detention. he's not -- he has no day-to-day powers there's a deputy ceo that's been appointed at renault the next two weeks will be interesting. then we'll finally see are there charges that will be filed, and also what maneuvering does carlos ghosn have at all right now he's in a box. >> phil, i have a question i imagine the real reason you

have seen the stock fall as much as it what is when you see something like this happen you say okay, were there other shenanigans, financial accounting or otherwise taking place inside this company? i'm not dismissing the $100,000 payment to the sister or the million payment for the house, but that is ultimately going to be immaterial to shareholders. the question is is there something larger going on in terms of how they may have reported numbers or sales that may be weighing on these companies. is there any indication of that? >> there's no indication you hit to the heart of the concerns that investors have there are two of them. one, are there broader financial shenanigans that will come out at some point that make people say wait a second, they're not as profitable as we thought. two, if this alliance falls apart, you have two smaller automakers, one with renault being in europe, which isa fragmented market, slowing down

at a fairly decent clip. what happens there those are the two things that are weighing on these stoc phil. coming up, the holiday shopping countdown is on only 32 shopping days left the retail industry making the push during the home stretch, but will it help retail stocks which haven't been so great of late you're looking at a live shot of the mall of america in bloomington, minnesota felt like we were in minnesota around here yesterday and today. they're open for business. as we head to break, here's wednesday's s&p 500 winners and losers let's begin.

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welcome back you're watching "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. welcome back to "squawk on the street." for a look at retail stocks this black friday let's welcome matt shea thank you for joining us >> happy black friday. >> a big day for you guys. i'm wondering what the

confidence level is of the retailers. you go into a season which brian cornell of target said it's a very, very strong environment, one of the strongest of the consumers he has seen. yet the stocks are not doing well what's the reality in terms of what the confidence is for the retailers, not just for the fourth quarter but beyond? >> i think it's a tail of two cities the fundamental retail is strong consumers are in a great place consumer confidence is the highest in 20 years. unemployment rate the lowest in 50 years tax cuts helping consumers and businesses retailers are in a good place. one thing that happens, this is certainly something dana can weigh in on too, but some analysts understand the new retail, some who don't and there are some who are still using outdated metrics to assess the health of the retail industry there's some that have begun to

understand what drivers are really going to produce winners and losers that's one reason stocks are underperformed overall we're confident it will be an outstanding holiday season numbers will be good we're looking forward to a great next few weeks what are the outdated metrics we're talking about so we stop referring to them? >> i think the issue is looking at our companies executing digital strategies alt a hiy ie level. are they bringing in new brands, innovating, creating new partnerships, are they creative in which they do fulfillment and the way in which these initial state bricks and mortar companies are taking advantage of technology that exists today and the way that the initial state digital companies are starting to use real estate. >> sure. >> we're seeing the convergence. it's finally starting to happen. the corollary to that new retail, and wesaw this, dana, we mentioned macy's in the first

segment. how e-commerce sales are coming at the cost of margins is the new retail a retail world in which an e-commerce dollar is not as high margin of a dollar as a bricks and mortar dollar? >> overall that e-commerce dollar comes with a higher cost. but you're looking for higher total sales overall. >> can i ask this question maybe i'm late to the party here the whole idea of e-commerce from the very get-go was a higher margin business you don't have to pay the overhead of these plays, you don't have to pay rent on 5th avenue, you didn't have to do the marketing costs, all of this now i find out that the whole thing is a lie >> i think it's not a lie, but what matt was referring to, that convergence is happening you need a store and you need digital. if you close a store, your digital sales go down. if you open a store, onlane

sales go up also it's about both that work. >> in terms of the tariffs, if the tariffs go from 10% to 25% on january 1st and new tariffs get put in place shortly after that what is the impact to the retail industry in your view >> i think that's one thing you're seeing with stock valuations now the holiday season, i think, is baked in because of the way inventory is allocated and the kind of programs and the fulfillment strategies that retailers have one reason you see valuations lower is because people are looking ahead to '19. we agree with the administration, china's practices are unfair in terms of technology transfer, market access, intellectual property, we just don't think imposing taxes on u.s. consumers is the right way to go. so we're helpful to see some movement towards dialogue in a broad coalition and that will

start with the g20 meetings soon in the next week we would prefer not to have those tariffs hit. because we think you go the other 25$257 billion, you escale the 10% to 25% on existing tariffs, people will feel that >> right now they're not really feeling it we're hearing from retailers that they're trying to absorb whatever additional costs there are. they will feel it should the tariffs go higher. >> listen, everybody knows there's a potential for this to happen people are taking steps to prepare for it as you heard one ceo say many times, there's lots of levers they can pull. and they will pull those to serve customers and meet expectations of the street >> matt, thanks. coming up, we'll talk about small businesses that have a big economic impact, it goes beyond the big box stores and we'll have a preview of small business saturday as we head to break, check out

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today's black friday tomorrow is small business saturday kate rogers will tell us why it's a big deal for the economy. >> hi, joe small business saturday is in its ninth year and some 80% of consumers who are aware of the holiday say they plan to shop small in some way on the day here's how some small business owns >> reporter: getting ready >> some of these are our biggest sellers. >> for mckenzie there's nothing small about small business saturday >> it's our busiest day of the year. >> reporter: she has been participating in the american express sponsored holiday since the start. she said a decade on there's barely any room to stand in her shop on small business saturday. that single day accounts for 8% of her overall holiday season sales. >> people in this neighborhood especially are trained to know this is the day you support small businesses they want to be here to support us, it's about the show.

it's hyped >> reporter: dog products brand crew lala makes bowtie collars and leashes and more giving back a portion of its profits to animal rescue organizations the etsy seller sells online and at its storefront. for the past five years small business saturday sales have doubled. >> good girl 40% of our customers from small business saturday were first-time customers of that, 65% turned into returning customers. having a day that really shows the support to the community is really inspiring it helps us kind of for the rest of the year. >> cnbc and survey monkey did our own polling and it showed overall this holiday season shoppers say they will spend less, 28% responding that way. 14% say they will spend more 61% of respondents said they

prefer to do shopping in person, which is good news for all of those small businesses back over to you guys. >> happy thanksgiving. >> thank you when we return a critical weekend for the airline industry we'll find out which carrier is in the best position to take off for investors. get that little pun? as we head to break a quick check on what's happening in european markets right now ckn re in the green. ba ia moment at&t provides edge-to-edge intelligence, covering virtually every part of your healthcare business. so that if she has a heart problem & the staff needs to know, they will & they'll drop everything can you take a look at her vitals? & share the data with other specialists yeah, i'm looking at them now. & they'll drop everything hey. & take care of this baby yeah, that procedure seems right. & that one too. at&t provides edge to edge intelligence. it can do so much for your business,

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welcome back to "squawk box. mild weather and low oil prices boding well for some of the busiest travel days of the year. joining us now to talk about how this critical weekend -- or how critical this weekend is going to be for airlines, the editor for airline weekly good morning to you. let's talk oil prices and what the implications really are going to be for the airlines right now, seth. >> yeah. you know, in the short-term, you end up getting a bumper crop of profits when oil prices drop over to medium and long-term, what ends up happening when prices fall, it puts more in the marketplace. a rational thing to do becomes more of a fixed cost industry. but that does put downward pressure ultimately on airfares.

right now you have people flying around on tickets they bought back when oil was 30 cents more expensive than it was right now. and the differential between those prices and where they are now goes straight to the bottom lines of airlines. >> all the four majors of them four majors, whatever number you want to put it at, who has the best position given the way they've hedged their oil prices >> yeah, well, delta, american, and united at this point that's the easier question to answer southwest is the one that still hedges when oil was pricier, that gave them a buffer that others didn't have now you're in a situation where southwest, you know, although they don't hedge as aggressively as they once did as other airlines around the world do, they have an active hedging program. >> is there one airline right now you think that is as -- from an operational perspective that you think is doing better than

everybody else >> well, delta still is. they've kind of done that for years. and, you know, gotten to a point where it's hard to improve a lot more than where they've been although they say they can united has made a lot of progress here over the past year or so. american is the one that's still kind of struggling to catch up on the other hand, that gives it the most room for improvement as it achieves that >> most of the airlines are still acting like rational actors inthat you haven't seen a huge rush of capacity someone just try to go out there and basically buy market share and that's what has happened historically which has put a lot of pressure on airlines. and this has actually been good for airline stocks because everybody's acted this way but there's something almost irrational about the fact that to me nobody's tried this. do you think somebody will >> well, united is growing a bit more quickly than the others

united's president scott kirby has said, look, this all went too far. we're leaving opportunities on the table. so they're stort sort of growing more mid-single digits nothing like we would have seen in past years. and they said there's such a thing as good growth that's what they're doing. they felt their domestic network was under schedule but this is a consolidated industry this is what the ceos of all these airlines said. it's still going to be competitive, but it's going to be an industry that can survive in market conditions so far they've been right. >> seth, very quickly, the tiered classes business, first, coach in this market given the volatility and also businesses in expensing things, if you worry about a recession coming, do you have any expectation that companies are going to curtail the travel of their employees? >> yeah. that is the flip side of what we've seen here in recent years.

the transatlantic market has been extraordinarily strong especially due to the premiums you're talking about and in turn that is what's most sensitive. that's the kind of thing where if you are delta especially which has done so well capturing that demand. that's what you start to worry more about >> okay. we're going to keep our eyes on that wish you a happy thanksgiving. appreciate it. >> likewise. happy thanksgiving all right. coming up, we're going to be talking bitcoin. remember last thanksgiving was a thanksgiving where everybody was talking about bitcoin. >> around the table. this might be the opposite >> exactly and retail, of course. it's black friday. what to expect from retailers on this black friday. more "squawk box" straight ahead. alerts -- wouldn't you like one from the market

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okay, people tomorrow morning 8:00 a.m. santa's coming to town >> santa oh, my god >> and will he be coming to wall street what you need to know as we head to the end of the year we break down what you should be doing with your portfolio. holiday central in full swing. >> here's a list alphabetical starting with kathryn. i'd like to get something for you, clark something really nice. >> we're going to get you ready for the big holiday shopping rush, talk deals, and how you can protect yourself online. plus the showdown in the desert lefty versus tiger who will win we'll preview the odds and the money behind today's big match as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪

live from the beating heart of business, new york, this is "squawk box. welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc we're live at the nasdaq market site in times square along with melissa lee in for becky quick and joe kernen take a look at u.s. equity futures at this hour dow looks it would open off about 140 points right now nasdaq off about 40 points s&p 500 off about 14 points on what i imagine will be a light day in trading given that we're the day after the holidays >> markets close at 1:00 today we are watching three big stories this morning number one, black friday in full effect you are looking at a live shot of the mall of america we will have retail roundups all morning long number two, equity markets have a half day we are expecting lighter than

normal volume today. we'll try to figure out if there will be a santa claus rally. and three, bitcoin it was all the rage last thanksgiving now the cryptocurrency is down 45% since last november. we will talk to one of the largest cryptotraders. nissan's board voting unanimously to remove carlos ghosn from his post. he was arrested earlier this week on allegations of financial misconduct there are now details emerging in "the wall street journal" this morning he used company funds to buy homes and pay his sister for work she did not actually perform a big breakthrough in the brexit battle. the uk and eu approving a draft on after britain leaves the eu to create a, quote, ambitious and balanced trade agreement theresa may now heading to brussels to finalize that deal

we have green arrows across the board. the president of george soros' philanthropy is taking aim at facebook. the head of the organization calling on u.s. lawmakers to review the social media giant after the company admitted to hiring a firm to gather research on soros facebook shares this morning also seemed kind of important in if this market is going to make a stand. down from 200 and change to $133 it's down again today this morning in a weak market and it is one of the busiest shopping days of the year. courtney ragan joins us now from new jersey good morning to you, courtney. >> reporter: hi, good morning. the traffic here starting to pick up at the woodbridge mall 81% of shoppers that plan to shop this weekend are going to do so today. 70 frst in store and 50% online.

that means some shoppers are going to do both that matches up with what target is saying. they said twice as many black friday orders online will be picked up in store this year compared to last year. so there's an example of shoppers using both the site and the stores walmart's chief merchandising officer said that phones, toys, gaming consoles, cook ware, and tvs were some of the most popular both in store and online as of 5:00 p.m. on thanksgiving day, online sales up about 29% according to adobe they think it'll hit $3.7 billion for thanksgiving day marks thanksgiving as one of the fastest growing online shopping days today expect $5.9 billion to be spent online according to adobe. when it comes to what folks are searching for online, top searched product categories through this morning electronics at number one. not surprising then gaming.

listen to this travel and beauty are after that and searches are up 265% and 150% over last year for travel and beauty laptops the top electronics searched and top laptop brands google, dell, lenovo and apple is number four apple dropping to four from number one with searches for apple laptops down 150% year over year. small and medium businesses are part of this day too shopify has 600,000 merchants. $250 million for thanksgiving day for that network as well back over to you guys. >> thank you very much let's talk now about the state of the markets in light of the holiday shopping season. we have three guest hosts for that this morning. you' jurrien timmer, jan kniffen, and dana telsey.

welcome, guests, this morning here top of the show jurrien, where are we in this market correction? >> you know, this has been a year of re-rating for the markets, right so we've gone absolutely nowhere all year long and i think that will continue into 2019. the bad news is the fed -- it's not bad news, but the fed is raising rates to what it per zees to be neutral around 3% earnings growth is now starting to slow. it's had a very, very big run-up after the taxes. the estimates for calendar 2019 are now steadily coming down the good news is that the valuation reflects all that. so the pe last week was trading at 15.2 multiple on next year's earnings so we're in this rerating where the market is just trying to digest the new reality of higher rates and a peak in earnings

growth but i think investors are getting fairly compensated for that with a lower multiple the pe ratio is down about 23% even though the s&p is only down 11%, the valuation has corrected in line with actual bear markets. and that's actually good news going forward in terms of what investors have to pay for each dollar of earnings >> in terms of, you know, the next couple weeks for the markets, it seems like we have a lot of different catalysts potentially. we have the fomc minutes and jay powell speaking next week. we've got g20. so we can get some sort of movement on china. we've got the fed meeting. we'll get that with a statement afterwards in terms of where we might see the biggest movements based on these catalysts, what are you looking to >> the period between now and the end of the season tends to be strong. the santa claus rally.

a rate hike is completely baked into the cake. but one of the things that is now potentially moving we've seen some recent announcements from fed people that, you know, maybe they can slow down the last four hikes and spread them out over two years instead of doing five hikes over a year and a half and that maybe the fed is close enough to neutral. i mean, they're not there yet. they're at 2% neutral. but they're close enough that they can take it a little slower in 2019 and instead of doing three or four hikes, maybe do only two i would say that's the biggest thing to watch for on the g20 and trade, you know, my sense is that that's a very long-term phenomenon if it is, indeed, a containment strategy on the part of the u.s. and if there is some good feelings about what may happen at the g20, i would be more inclined to fade that. but then offset potentially more of a dovish tail by the fed. >> jan, as a retail guy at the

table. it looks strong in this moment when we hear about a fed that might be backing off from some of the rate hikes next year, at least that's the market hope, how do you view that is that a positive or a negative in your view right? the consumer which is facing higher borrowing costs on everything from credit to loans, at the same time that may be viewed as a slowing economy. >> if it's a slowing economy, it's not good for anybody. >> how would you view it if the fed backed off for next year >> i view it as positive if the fed backs off because i think the consumer will be healthier and like it better if they're backing off because the consumer is going to have less jobs and less wage growth and all that, that'd be a whole different story. but that's not what i believe. i think the fed was probably going too fast the fed's probably going to slow down that would be good for the consumer i think the concern in the retail markets, for the retail companies is this may be as good as it gets, right?

we've got great employment numbers. we've got wage growth. we've got all of the things that the consumer -- we've got a great credit score for the consumer all of those positives and we're about to phase, cycle through the tax cut. so people who are investing in retail look at it and go, it's really great maybe that's bad news. because the growth rate will slow next year i think the growth rate probably will slow for the consumer next year but they're not going to slow in the fourth quarter i agree. i was watching dana a while ago. i agree if we're going to see 5%, we saw 5.5% last year. i don't think we will at one or two either i think we'll see strong growth in q1 and q2 i think tax refunds will be fabulous because nobody changed their withholding. they're going to get more money than they normally do and they're going to spend it when they do. so unless we see something

change with employment, i think the consumer is going to be good for the next three quarters. >> in terms of the tariffs, back when we were talking about the border adjustment tax rate, the retailers really had a tantrum, let's say, because they were thinking how that would impact costs. have the retailers in your view really priced in the notion of full tariffs >> we may have to have a debate on this, but i am not concerned about the tariffs. >> you're not concerned at all >> i wouldn't say at all >> retailers in large part ordered a lot of stuff so they came in with no tariff impact. >> no impact on the fourth quarter. we have to worry about q1 and beyond, but even if the tariffs come in, we're moving out of china so fast anyway we're making changes all the time with the supply chain could there be some temporary disruptions for some smaller retailers that are all whetted

to china but if you're talking about my kind of retailers, the macy's, walmarts of the world, i'm not worried about it i think they'll handle that fine they're handling all the other cost pressures they've got i don't think it's that big a deal >> when i think about the third quarter, i think that could have been the high water mark we're going to have a good fourth quarter also. there's nothing to say this holiday season will be derailed. i think lapping next year could have been the high water mark we just got we're lapping the wage benefits. we're lapping tax reform we're lapping perfect weather. i think the tariff environment is retailers are bringing in goods early. they're bringing in goods early so they're prepared. so i think inventory levels are going to be much more of a focus going into 2019 than they were in '18 >> but then how do you capture the fashion piece of it? >> some of them are basics they're bringing in. the fashion piece you have to bring in as it's happening some of the bottoms out there, it's working

the theme of holiday 2008, smart and cozy that's basically the theme smart home, cozy wae ewear >> i don't think the risk is big enough that i'm going to get freaked out about that either. i'm with you though. i think we will have a tough time in q3 and q4 of 2019 looking as good as we did this time because all of those good news things will have rolled through. i still think we have a strong retail environment but we won't have to growth we had the last two years zbl. >> this also plays into rising labor. core inflation could be down from this year as shelter prices start to moderate. so if we have tariffs and rising labor cost os, you know, north of 3% and the inability to pas those costs on, it's going to shrink profit margins. >> i think both of us agree on that

we think the cost pressures cannot be passed through >> freight also. >> we'll continue the conversation got to take a short break here jurrien, jan, and dana are with us for the rest of the show. we've got a big interview later with jeff gennette catch that at 9:00 eastern time. coming up, amazing numbers when you look at how much small businesses do contribute to the private sector according to american express which is credited with starting small business saturday, consumers have spent $85 billion so far at small businesses usually on the saturday following thanksgiving this is the average over the past eight years we're going to hear from former small business administrator karen mills about this growing trend. stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc

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continue to have our guest hosts for the rest of the hour we got lots of guest hosts you're not really a guest host you're kind of a host -- >> i'm a guest i'll take that >> all right how is the overall environments of small business right now? people don't realize that a lot of the new jobs are created are small businesses and half of the private sector workforce is small businesses. and one way i guess you can help is by giving some business to, you know, don't always go to the mall and hot topic or whatever i hear that's where i'm supposed to go. hot topic. >> you're supposed to go downtown to your main street >> to main street. right. and support small businesses >> exactly yeah i love small business saturday as you said, half the people who work in this country own or work for small business and it's really become a bit of a movement

it's time to go downtown to your main street and get a coffee and buy something and show support for the community. this is now a worldwide phenomenon i was in london and met the head of small business saturday and i said how do you have small business saturday? you don't have thanksgiving. but they take a whole saturday in december and they devote it to this. so it's one of the few new small business brands that has come up i think small business will have a really strong day. you actually see a lot of small businesses taking out loans. those new online loans amazon is now lending to its small business retailers in order to have them get the inventory that they need for the holidays so i think it's a pretty strong small business story right now but as you know, whenever there's a recession, ten years ago -- you can't forget how

tough it is for small business when things go bad >> traditional lenders, they don't like to do it that much. the cost of underwriting a small loan doesn't really scale like larger ones. so who steps up? where are we right now if you want to do this, can you find financing for it? or do we still need some innovation here? >> well, technology has really changed the game in small business lending and we are just at the opening of a huge transformation so i just wrote a book that's coming out in the spring called fin tech small business and the american dream because we're going to see things change completely already we have fin teches, amazon, paypal making loans. square is making loans -- $7,000 loans. a bank can't make any money

trying to make a $7,000 loan when you saw the challenges come up, it's a better customer experience small business preparing for small business saturday can't wait three months to get an inventory loan so now they've got this sort of online loan within minutes one of the things i've been working on in washington, olympia snowe and i chaired is something for the small business main street task force of the bipartisan policy center new regulation has to encourage innovation, but also protect small businesses so as we get financial service regulatory reform, we set out a whole list of things to make sure small businesses know what they're paying and we clean up some of the regulatory overlap the world is going to change for small business for the better with technology. but there's also risks >> karen, you're in a bipartisan

organization now but you did work for president obama as part of the sba do you have a feeling on what a $15 an hour national minimum wage would do to small businesses is that something that you would be a proponent for just seems like that might be problematic for, you know, across the entire country whether you could pay that in a lot of places. >> you know, i'm a big proponent of the $15 wage and the data is supportive of this we took a long look at this. and the evidence now as you start to see states adopt it is that you're not seeing small businesses suffer. you actually see additional growth in markets that have adopted this i think that's really a red herring. and what small businesses tell me is they want their employees

to stay with them. they want to provide them health care it's like a family in a small business so they need to be able to not be undercut by a competitor. if they want to pay $15 and the competitor isn't, it's hard for them so i actually think this is a positive and the data supports that i think right now there's a lot of -- i'm actually at harvard business school and i spend a little bit of time with a bipartisan area. small business is a bipartisan issue. we can get a lot done now in regulatory reform and in helping small businesses get access to capital. maybe that should be the agenda of the new congress. because it's a place that americans believe and as you said, it's half the economy. it's half the jobs >> so you don't think on main street if they are forced to pay $15 an hour, you don't think -- do you agree with that, jan?

>> i'm not a big proponent of the minimum wage but right now $15 is the minimum wage amazon set it three weeks ago. i don't think it would matter much now if we did have a minimum wage of 15 bucks because i think we're there. but once you start raising the minimum wage if you made it 20 bucks, you'd see people losing jobs but if you're keeping up with where the world is, i don't think it matters much. >> with small businesses overall, any categories you're seeing growing or sblinking? >> right now across small businesses, some of the ones who trade are feeling the effects of these tariffs. and it remains to be seen. i'm from maine the independent lobstermen in maine are suffering from some of the restrictions so i think we have to be careful about small businesses the trade sector is pretty

fragile. main street that goes up and down depend on the consumer and the economy. once again, you've got to make sure they're protected >> all right karen mills, former sb administrator now with the bipartisan policy center we're going to have our guest hosts stick around for quite a while, in fact you have to be here. if i got to be here, y'all got to be here >> we're here. >> okay, good. coming up, stocks to watch ahead of the shortened trading session. later, tiger woods ready to take on phil mickelson this morning unlike any other pay per view contest. it will include on course interviews and much more we'll preview the match in just a bit. let's look at futures as we set up for this trading session which will end at 1:00 p.m. today. quk x"ilbeig back. oke my person. aflac!? no-good break. gooood break. i'm so sorry we can't make your barbecue. i'm just sick about it. aflac!? different kind of sick. if i can't work after surgery,

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good morning welcome gback to "squawk box" here on cnbc among the stories front and center this hour, tesla is cutting prices in china trying to boost the sales in the world's biggest automarket the price cuts on the model x and model s amount to 26%. >> that is to offset the tariff impact there separately, another company setting prices in an overseas market that is apple. "the wall street journal" reporting this morning that apple is ordering -- rather i should say offering new subsidies to japanese mobile network operators for the iphone xr that's the least expensive of the new models it's seen as another sign of weak demand for the new iphone we'll see whether that is the case separately, crude prices

have hit another one-year low. wti fell as low as $51.73 earlier this morning still down more than 4% on the day. crude is headed for its biggest one-month decline in four years. let's look at stocks to watch this morning shares of overstock.com are higher patrick burn ceo tells "the wall street journal" he expects to complete the sale of the retail business by february although he did not name any potential buyers that stock up 4.3% sabre is looking into the possible breach of antitrust rules. and visa and mastercard have offered to trim merchant fees in europe visa and mastercard are looking to avoid fines related to an antitrust probe. shares of rockwell collins right now are higher

they have given they approval for the sale by united technologies probably a sigh of relief from people who were concerned the china trade wars would impact approval of deals. rockwell collins is higher than 9%-plus. last thanksgiving bitcoin was all the buzz you might remember the price rise gripped the nation, became a dinner table conversation in january 2017 one bitcoin cost $1,000 by thanksgiving it had soared to $10,000. i think this is a result of thanksgiving called thanksgiving surprise by the end of the year, bitcoin cost almost $20,000. but now one year later, it is a different story. looking at it on the screen. it's at $4250 at this point. joining us now is michael morrow at genesis capital one of the biggest cryptomarket makers on the street can you explain this what's happening here? >> well, good morning.

i think that from a technical standpoint it's been ugly. the drawdown which lasted for basically 330 days has seen no abatement in terms of the price pressure the $5900 price level that has acted as a support during 2018 really broke down towards the end of last week we had some institutional buyers come in on the otc side but the flow on the retail side was too much once the price hit the mid- 5500s, it was a shot down. >> you're talking about this as if it's like a real thing and as if it's, you know, like the technicals i have a sort of maybe larger question here which is are we in a moment where people are saying the emperor has no clothes effectively, you're watching it drop and the bottom here is not 4,000 or 3,000 or some technical but the bottom is much worse than that?

>> i think from -- it really is just dependent on your time horizon. in terms of is this a good buy opportunity, if you're a day trader or looking to make a quick buck on looking at it, buying a dip here, trying to sell higher. i think that's really difficult. i think the key thing to keep in mind for the longer term investors is bitcoin has done this before. this is the fifth or sixth 75%-plus drawdown. so if you have that lens, i don't believe institutional investors really ultimately care where the price of bitcoin ends at 2018. simply because they're looking at things three to five years out. >> at the same time in the past, people would make an argument there's a floor in the bitcoin because of the mining costs. at this point we are below what mining costs are and mining costs will only go higher as we get closer to the last bitcoin that will be mined a couple years out how do you explain what the floor could be this time around if it's already violated what had been perceived as a floor

which is the cost to mine one bitcoin. >> so the cost of mine is going to go down because the -- >> because people will back off because it costs too much, right? >> correct but there are the largest miners are willing to currently mine at a loss up until that difficulty adjustment happens on the bitcoin network. so the break even price readjusts itself >> let me ask you a separate question i don't know if we're going too far on the weeds but let's figure it out for the audience here one of the things that has happened literally over the past two or three weeks now is a fight within the bitcoin community and the creation effectively of two versions of bitcoin. >> cash. bitcoin cash >> bitcoin cash. and it raises the question -- the whole idea of bitcoin was there was going to be a limited amount of bitcoin. this forking, if you will, so now there's a separate bitcoin means that there's now double the amount of bitcoin that were

available. you have to then decide which one you actually want. doesn't this undermine the whole idea of what this was about to begin with and isn't that really why we've seen the price drop the way it has? >> there's no question i think the drama that played out in the bitcoin cash network sort of led to the price action we saw towards the middle and ends of last week. but that's an important distinction to make. this happened opposed to the real bitcoin there's a larger question from an investment perspective as to which attributes of the digital currency is it that you're buying into? is it the payments angle the bitcoin cash network has always been going after versus the more speculative but eventually turn into a store value coin that the network cousidoes >> nobody knows which one -- people are worried about which one they're buying >> then you shouldn't buy what

you don't know bitcoin cash was created last year and now this war is a hard fork of the bitcoin cash network. >> correct but you don't think that all of this is confusing the issue for most investors >> sure. but you can say that out of equities i'm trying to play the devil's advocate on this zbluk believe in cryptocurrencies the question is do you believe in bitcoin i believe in cryptocurrency. i believe we're going to have cryptocurrency be a big part of what goes on as far as transactions being run across my kind of businesses but i don't know if it's going to be bitcoin. why bitcoin instead of one of the other dozen cryptocurrencies and if having two bitcoins a problem, isn't having 20 cryptocurrencies a bigger problem? >> you raise a good point about knowing what you're buying my question to michael is, you know, this year seemed derisking of everybody who bought stuff because it was going up. either they were short the vix

in january, got liquidated, short the faang stocks they were long to faang stocks, sorry. but some just bought it because it was going up. so michael, how much of this selling is just that people getting out either by force or by will in stuff that's not working that they were kind of tourists in the space to begin with >> so, i think a lot of the selling that happened to the mid-2018 is exactly that so the folks that experienced bought bitcoin for the first time in 2017 either right before or in the middle of the bull run and then either realized losses or decided to take what they could and got out. the genesis is we've seen some folk who is have not yet sold. sort of folk who is bought in 2016 even before the 2017 run have started to liquidate and take gains it be for -- >> what do volumes look like

because we talk about this as if it's -- you know, we talk about this as if it's like the stock market what are volumes looking like right now? >> volumes are still half to 60% lower than the bull run 2017 but there are still multiples higher than we were at thestar of 2017 as well. it really kind of depends on the time frame that you're looking at if you're looking at, hey, the all-time highs in terms of price and volume, we're still about 50% back >> and how correlated do you think bitcoin's prices willing with the paypals or squares of the world. i don't know how you look at any of these kinds of things the reason i ask is, i also wonder when you look at tech stocks, i think people in silicon valley are the ones who have been buying the stuff to begin with as their net worth is falling. some of them are saying -- maybe they did this on margin. i don't know how it was this to begin with >> i think there is a carryover

into the stock market where certain stocks that have sort of the bitcoin exposure got a little bit too much credit during the bull run. you're kind of seeing the opposite where it's really only a small percentage of their top line, yet their stock is ultimately being punished as a correlation to what's happening in the bitcoin price. ultimately, though, if the institutions are going to get into this space which we all believe that they will, i think the asset class naturally does become a bit more correlated over time opposed to the uncorrelated behavior we've seen in the history of bitcoin. >> where do we find the floor of bitcoin here >> it's really difficult there's small levels of resistance we've seen the 4,000 level get tested twice now in the last couple days. but i really don't think they're over the mid-threes. you won't see it until you hit the 3k flat level. >> wow >> michael, thank you. appreciate it. happy thanksgiving

>> thank you coming up, tiger woods and phil mickelson are going to tee it up in las vegas for the match. it will feature loads of cash, plenty of side bets. it's the closest thing to taking the boxing pay per view model and seeing if it's going to work for golf it's not $50 i think it's $19.95. we'll run through some of the odds after the break we'll be right back. ♪ (whistles) ♪ come on. come on, squirt. (dog barking) whatever your financial goals are, a u.s. bank wealth management advisor can help make them a reality. talk to one today. u.s. bank - the power of possible.

something is transforming and our world.. it's the longevity economy - americans 50+ driving 7.6 trillion dollars... of economic activity every year. right before our eyes, aging is unleashing exponential growth... ...in every industry.

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the duel in the desert tiger woods and phil mickelson will tee off today for a $9 million purse. dom chu joins us now to talk odds and the money behind the match. it's real money. these guys sponsorwise do okay year in and year out but it's got some appeal for one 18-hole match. >> i mean, million the funny part is if you look at some of the marketing that led up to this event, those guys, the players phil mickelson and tiger woods posing with $9 million was something to try to

generate buzz for this the reason this is important, there's a few main reasons first of all, this is the first time ever that a golf event has been put on pay per view status. so the question becomes whether or not people will tune into it and pay that $20 like you said to watch this match which happens, by the way, noon pacific time because it's out in las vegas. 3:00 p.m. eastern time out here. the other because this is a pay per view-only streaming event that's also put on the online platform for at&t's newly acquired turner sports properties br live is where you can pay for the streaming rights as well so there are so many different media stories in play because of this particular move but the $9 million prize is certainly something no one is going to balk at, joe. >> you know, dom, even when we watch like an accenture match play event, sometimes if you don't have 40 or 50 golfers to watch, they got to walk, they got to hit the ball and walk to

the next shot. and sometimes even in match play, it's like what are we supposed to do as a network in between the walking. but they're going to have so much with these guys talking and going back and forth and needling each other. i bet you they do side bets. i bet i can get inside you on this approach shot they'll be miked up. and these two guys, you know who they are they're the two greatest golfers of the current -- i don't know, the last 25 years probably >> sure. yeah i mean, we already know that there are going to be those side bets you're right, joe. the reason why this is going to be an interesting type event is because we're going to have full transparency if you pay the $20 to watch this or the $30 to watch it in ultrahigh definition on at&t's directv platform, you are going to get full unfettered access to the microphones, tiger woods, phil mickelson, their caddies,

the banter that goes back and forth. not just the side bets they're doing but also the fact they're going to have these skills challenges throughout the course of the 18-hole round as you're seeing now, the current adds this morning on vegasinsider.com have tiger woods maybe no surprise as the favorite you've got to lay down bet $220 to win a hundred dollars if tiger wins meanwhile if you bet $100, you will get $180 if mickelson wins. tiger the favorite here. my feeling, though, this could be a paradigm setter for how live sports go going forward if people like that whole i can hear everything they say, all the smack talk that goes back and forth between these guys i can hear the subtle nuance between is it a 7 iron or a iron, all this and that. it may change how golf is viewed just the idea -- it was before my time, but if i could have

seen jack nicklaus and arnold palmer in their prime play head-to-head, i might pay pay per view money for that type of stuff. >> and they still are. phil's 48. i don't know phil's getting up there a little bit. and i don't know if these are the two best guys right now. it might be brooks koepka or d.j. or dustin johnson i'm fully ready to watch these two guys play a match. right? >> yeah. >> it's match play okay so it doesn't matter -- >> it's not skins. it's a match play format. >> it's not total strokes. >> no. the person who wins the most number of holes by it's said and done a couple of corporate angles, i mentioned the at&t side of things this is featuring their sports properties and their distribution platform. another thing that's interesting about the business dynamic of this is the mgm side of things they're playing this golf at shadow creek just north of las

vegas. i've never played in las vegas before, but there were a handful of these properties for only certain guests on the strip. mgm is the only one with this shadow creek course. >> it was steve wynn's course for a long time, i think, wasn't it or he built it, i think. >> no. i think the wynn course is not far off the property and it just reopened again it kind of got a breath of life again. again, i've never played golf in las vegas. it's something i want to do. >> i'm surprised >> i know. i gamble >> out of 180 rounds a year that your wife told me about, i would think one of them would have been -- >> that's fake news, joe it's no more than 60 >> so i decided -- i have $20. i'm going to do it, i think. you are, i'm sure. you can write it off though. >> i'm going to be here at the

exchange filling in for bob pisani until 2:00 at least eastern time i don't know when with traffic i'm going to get home in time to watch it i might catch the back nine. but they're not going to charge me ten buck for the back nine. >> isn't a drink $20 in a lot of places in new york now >> i just drink water. i don't know >> i think water's $20 in some places all right, dom chu. i'm excited about it i think it should be -- you know, tiger's back phil, didn't he win a tournament he did pretty well ryder cup was not great for phil. >> no. but he had the wgc in mexico and tiger won the championship >> all right, dom. you know, it's the friday after thanksgiving we're allowed to do this right? >> sure. >> thanks, dom >> i'm just a guest here coming up, protecting yourself while online shopping

this holiday season. the head of cisco's threat intelligence team joins us pen we'll hear from alan questrom "squawk box" rb light back and serve with confidence that it's safe. this is a diamond you can follow from mine to finger, and trust it never fell into the wrong hands. ♪ ♪ this is a shipment transferred two hundred times, transparently tracked from port to port. this is the ibm blockchain, built for smarter business. built to run on the ibm cloud. this is the ibm blockchain, built for smarter business. a moment of joy. a source of inspiration. an act of kindness. an old friend. a new beginning. some welcome relief... or a cause for celebration.

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a story capturing a bit of attention this morning "the wall street journal" saying washington is trying to avoid equipment from huawei technologies due to sieb security risks

joining us is craig williams from cisco craig, great to have you with us huawei is a 100% owned company but the threat the u.s. government is alleging, where does a threat lie in selg this equipment to other internet and wireless providers how is that a threat >> i think the concern is any time off device where you're not fully familiar with the source code, you're not sure what could happen this is one of the main reasons people are such a fan of open source solutions so you can look at the source code, verify there are no bugs. and if there are any issues, you can see there are ways to work around them. >> so it is a concern that they are in control of that and so somewhere before that equipment is installed within a network, it could be tampered with? or they would have the keys to the kingdom because they understand the code as well as

maybe the person buying the equipment. >> if we look back at the attack in the ukraine, basically a piece of tax software was back doored by one of our adversaries and they used that to deploy malwa malware. i think it was one of the most damaging cyberattacks ever known. >> in reading about the story, krig wi craig, the most interesting thing to me was the upgrade to 5 g. the cell towers as i understand it is more isolated from the core system but they take on some of the tasks of the core system and so therefore if you attack that cell tower, you actually make the system a little bit more vulnerable how crucial is it at this point when places around the world are upgrading to 5g to get the most secure equipment in place in the first place?

>> well, i think when it comes down to security, one of the most important things is network visibility this comes down to anything from your device, from your network, to your cloud. and it's one of the core reasons you've got to have an enterprise protector. without that across the devices, it's difficult to monitor. when you increase the speeds of those devices it's more challenging. >> weill 5g ultimately be safer from the current system? >> there are things in it that have the potential to make things safer but at the end of the day, only time will tell >> all right thanks for your time, craig williams from cisco. coming up when we return, much more on the holiday rush, the markets, and where you should be putting your money heading into 2019. in the next hour, former jcpenney ceo allen questrom will

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readready, set, shop ♪ door busters, deep discounts, and mall traffic will this give the retail sector a boost? allen questrom will be our special guest. from the mall to the car lot -- >> i owe it to myself to warn

you if you're thinking of taking the tribe cross country, this is the automobile you should be using. >> how black friday has become a big day for autosales. and are there bargains to be found on wall street we'll get you ready for today's trading session. the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now live from the most powerful city in the world, new york, this is "squawk box. >> good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square. it's the day after you really can get a bad hangover from eating too much. you can. i just proved it >> do you feel it right now? >> i felt it last night a lot. i had been on a diet leading up to the big day, so i kind of said, i'm going to go all out. >> you saw the news.

we gained six pounds during the holiday season >> that includes christmas not usually in one meal though. >> not one meal. but between thanksgiving and new year's, six pounds the average american >> i wasn't going to say anything, but -- >> if you walk around and go shopping, you can burn it off. >> i mean, i actually was -- i needed something like seltzer or something. just to get things it was hard. i'm joe -- >> tmi at 8:00 in the morning. >> stuffing. it's just -- >> but seltzer to get things moving too much >> all the gravy, all the potatoes, all that anyway, i'm joe kernen >> happy thanksgiving, everybody. >> i'm here with andrew ross sorkin and melissa lee pumpkin cheesecake and wine. we have a trio of gusts. jurrien timmer what'd you do? you felt fine. you look like that's not your vice >> we ate early enough.

>> you did he's fine. he didn't have any trouble he's a young man though. jurrien timmer jan, what can you tell me? >> hey, i had pumpkin cheesecake just like you. >> with whipped cream? >> yeah. >> but you feel fine so it's me it's me. jan kniffen of rj rogers and dana telsey, the telsey adviser group. did you -- >> i was inthe stores. >> home cooked. >> no, no, no. we go out. but i was in the stores. i was in macy's, best buy, and my team was in the stores. vince is out there with his son liam then i have another in kohl's talking about the longest lines at kohl's. >> you would do this -- you can't -- you're working on thanksgiving >> this is the time when game's on this is all about the holiday season and you got to be in the stores all the time. and online it's not either or it's both. >> and she pays her people one and a half times on thanksgiving >> you had the home cooked deal, right? did you cut the turkey

>> i did not >> i did you try to cut it thin but i think it needs to be -- you know, it's just tmi. needs to be sharpened. the thing came up way too early too. the thing. >> the prompter? >> yeah. no the thing on the turkey popped early. i don't think you can count on those things though. >> no you have to have a meat thermometer. >> we did. >> i fried mine, joe. >> did you >> i've always wanted to do that >> i do it every year. >> could be dangerous. >> depends on what you own it's an equipment sport. >> the futures have improved as we've been talking in this light hearted engaging fashion that i think people at home are very -- >> i'm sure they're glued to their tvs right now. >> treasury yield down and the s&p down 11. the 10-year is 3.05% this

morning. couple big stories the investors are going to talk about. apple trying to boost demand for the iphone xr. apple effectively cutting the price of that phone in japan by offering new subsidies to mobile network operators. and the head of george soros' fiphilanthropic site called for oversight of facebook. hired a research firm to scrutinize the investor after he had criticized facebook's business model and nissan has voted unanimously to oust carlos ghosn. that follows allegations of financial misconduct the arrest of ghosn has thrown the future of nissan-mitsubishi into question. it was reported ghosn bought a house over a million dollars with the company's money.

>> renovations in another house. >> and separately employed his sister as an consultant though apparently she didn't do anything for that hundred thousand dollars a few stocks on the move this morning shares of rockwell collins and united technologies are higher in premarket trade china's market regulator has conditionally approved the purchase by utech. we should note that pop -- weaver also watching shares of tesla this morning tesla cutting prices on the model x and s in china in hopes of boosting sales in the world's largest automaker to offset the impact of tariffs on cars. all right. malls across america are open and more and more americans are waking up going shopping for more on what to expect this black friday, joining us now jim

fowler you referenced some of the things we were talking about earlier. we were talking about the chicken versus egg you took it from the perspective that at this point the market selloff probably won't impact tumor sentiment in terms of the retail season. i was looking the other way. whether the market was selling off because maybe consumers weren't as flush as we thought beforehand >> i think it's the former i think actually they're probably -- i think the consumer is still feeling very bullish and probably will be out and every forecast is pretty much standard of over 5% growth november december sales. >> they're not checking their 401(k)s. >> i think maybe at the upper end they might be a little nervous, but presumably wall street bonuses will be coming through when i think even they're off buying their teslas in china or whatever >> why is it -- is the environment we've struggled with

why it's improved this year? the tax cuts help? deregulation help? >> you have unemployment at a 39-year low. you have pay finally starting to inch up a little bit so i think the consumer is generally feeling better i think whether that feeling extends into 2019 is the key question obviously the china tariffs are going to -- >> jan's not worried about those? >> i think they're going to have some impact only because you're already seeing the fed raise interest rates, housing market slowing. all of that is going to feed maybe into a little less consumer bullishness at least through this holiday season, they're going to be out spending as dana said, the stores were crowded. >> look at the innovation in apparel. we haven't seen this type in a long time. >> no. people are buying clothes again. >> what is the innovation in apparel? i feel like i missed it.

what's happening this year >> it's different fabrics, cuts, it's the technology going into it it's outer wear will start selling. we've had a gold snap. this is the coldest thanksgiving in decades that's going to cause people to go out and buy coats again remember, three or four years ago retailers couldn't give a coat away. >> i have a manufacturing question on these coats. have they already manufactured all the coats? the coats are here, they're going to sell them or there are additional coats that have to be made to meet additional demand? >> they made them months ago they're done there's no way to turn it around that quickly >> i thought that h&m and all these guys were making this stuff in like two weeks. >> if it's really a fashion item, yes. but for something like a commodity which is a coat, they're not going to make those in two weeks and turn them around zblechb the fashion items are six weeks, not two weeks >> exactly they can get some items into a

store in two weeks, but the bulk of their merchandise was made. that's the question about the china tariffs. most of that is going to affect the spring merchandise which is already on boats heading our way. >> so there's no toys r us really does that make it a different year, do you think >> i think it'll help the walmarts and targets of the world because that's where the consumer's now going to have to go to buy the toys. >> that's kind of why there is no toys r us, isn't it >> but they've doubled down on toys they increased their toy inventories to gain that share fao schwarz is back though >> we don't know for how long. >> can i throw out a name we haven't talked about yet this morning? j.crew what does everybody think of j.crew they just got rid of the ceo >> right the new relaunch of j.crew didn't work. and maybe companies like banana republic is doing better >> i used to love j.crew when it

was under mickey when it was working five years ago. >> but we love made well, don't we >> we do >> j.crew, they have a long road back they lost their consumer can you get that consumer back they turned their back on what was their core consumer. you, andrew. >> no, i used to love it but i thought the real core consumer for j.crew was a woman, though, right? >> es. but also -- they started edging up pricewise they lost that quote, preppy, consumer they became too edgy fashion >> interesting >> well, i guess we -- i loved having womens wear daily on. what's amazing is when you hear about merger news and womens wear daily was reporting it's a bona fide -- i mean, you guys know retail >> we try to do our best thank you.

my suggestion for next thanksgiving is cognac >> really? is it lighter? tell me. >> just as a digestive >> i guess that's why they call it that. >> we tried to identify the problem last night i think it was gravy too much gravy can be a problem. and i put it on everything i put it on my apple pie, no but i put it on the turkey >> your ice cream. >> i think we know the problem you started with cheesecake and went to apple pie. that could be it too >> had i went back and forth between. thanks to jim fallon of womens wear daily coming up, november shaping up to be a rough month for the markets. should investors just wait for santa to arrive? you're taking a live look at rockefeller center, the tree look at it it's up. it will be lit next wednesday evening. stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc

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welcome back to "squawk box. let's check out the futures right now. last i saw they were down 80 or 90 92 now on the dow. s&p indicated down 13 or so. nasdaq down about 39 points so far. okay china rejecting fresh accusations from the united states that its trade practices are unfair china's foreign minister calling those claims, quote, groundless. new war of words coming as president trump and president xi jingping, of course, are expected to meet at next week's g20 summit in argentina. we will find out whether perhaps a settlement or deal can be reached. >> even just containment where the 10% tariffs don't go to 25 that could be a good thing for the markets. speaking of the markets with the recent market meltdown, could we still get a rally or do you need to believe in santa claus? let's get to karen kavanaugh

from voi ya investment management karen, you do believe in santa, apparently you think we will get that year-end rally what kind of rally are we talking about? we're running out of time here >> i know we are, but think about this i mean, today futures are down and we've seen valuations move down more than 20% there's a lot of bargains out there. and the way consumers are out there now in line shopping, i think investors have to get in line, too, and say these are great deals. these are great companies. these are earnings that may not be growing at 25% year over year next year. but we're still looking at 8% to 10% earnings growth. that's really nothing to shy away from. sure there's a lot of change out there. there is with the fed repricing money. there's the trade tariff issues and the ongoing issues with china. but the economy is doing well. mean street is doing well. consumers are out there shopping and companies are making money so even though i think investors are --there's so much

uncertainty out there, there really are some good bargains. i think investors should be out there. i think we will see investors have a moment of clarity and we will see somewhat of a santa claus rally. >> everybody mentions the valuations looking a lot better. the earnings growth rate for next year will remain the same do you think we have priced in the potential impacts of the 10% tariffs going to 25% of maybe the second round of tariffs going into effect and the lapping of the tax cuts. i wonder how solid those earnings results are if they're not and they're going to be moving down, maybe valuations don't look as good as they seem to look. >> well, that's a good point, but there is going to be some compression as we do see cost pressure but remember the stronger dollar has buffered some of the tariff impact i don't think we're pricing in the fact that china is stimulating their economy. there's a lag on that. and we saw some soft numbers in japan and germany in the third quarter. i think we're going to see some stronger numbers as some of that

stimulus in china comes -- works through the system and that we're going to see some better growth numbers in the fourth quarter worldwide. that's going to work through to the u.s. economy too sure things have slowed down a little bit, but they're still going very well. i think the 8% to 10% earnings growth for 2019 is realistic even with all of the uncertainty out there. >> the flip side, though, karyn, is a global synchronized slowdown could hurt us where do you stand on that we've got german pmis the lowest in four years. >> global growth has clearly slowed it's clear that the rate of change has peaked but the level is still growing you know, we don't see any sign of a recession on the horizon at all. but china is slow.

actually, one of the big opportunities or one of the big things we're looking at, the gap is 20 percentage points. so i think the u.s. will slow and you're seeing it in the earnings numbers you know, the calendar 2019 earnings estimate is progressing exactly the way they tend to they start too high. they end up at around 5% to 7% and we're at 10% and falling so that's one of the reasons i think the market sold off is because it's grappling with that and with the notion of the fed going to neutral but, you know, i have a question for karyn. there's this big dichotomy where the bond market is kind of chill. you know, where ten years at around 3%, 3.2%. you haven't seen that drop in yields where usually the it's down who's right? is the bond market right and things are okay and it's technical selling in the stock market and the momentum trade or is the stock market right and

the bond market just isn't paying attention >> i would say in this case, i think the bond market is right the bond market is pricing in inflation which has tempered somewhat we don't see inflation being a problem. and growth is moving through we do see growth but there's not that inflation there. i think the bond market has it right that yields are moving up. they're not moving up too much because we've already priced in growth and we see a pullback in inflation. i have to say i think the bond market is right. and i think recently the equity investors have been a little bit too cautious because i think especially the whole situation with china, it's hard to get your arms around the extent of the whole trade negotiations i think that's probably it plus then the fed is continuing to raise interest rates as you said and we don't see that inflation. so those two things are just such uncertainties that i think that the equity market's been a little bit too cautious.

>> give me a percent what kind of santa claus rally are we looking at? >> i think 5% could be very easy 5% in december could definitely happen because i think we're a little bit too low >> karyn, thanks karyn cavanaugh of voya investment management. starbucks and dunkin' have big plans for today. we'll tell you what that's all about. i could use that right now meantime, as we head to a break, check out the scene at the mall of america as shopping gets underway on black friday "squawk" returns after this.

welcome back to "squawk box. futures right now been in the red all morning long they were down triple digits for awhile now they're down triple digits again. we did pair those losses in premarket trade. but that's where we are right now with the nasdaq indicated down about 44. s&p down 15 or so. today is not only black friday as we mentioned right before the break, it's also national espresso day. who makes up these >> lobbyists >> here are some deals for you starbucks hosting a happy hour with a buy one get one free

offer on pres sew and frappuccino drinks and then dunkin' is offering free rides via lyft until 3:00 p.m. eastern with a promo code on its app you get a ride plus the espresso. >> it makes sense. if you're shopping, you need a jolt of energy because the lines are so long. >> if you've been shopping all night. >> and you don't have to waste time going to the bathroom and all that >> tmi >> i didn't say for me coming up, the online retail giant going full speed on this black friday we are tracking amazon and the competition. we'll talk about it next as we head to the break, take a look at u.s. equity futures. dow up 110 off right now back in a minute every investor should ask questions. is our money in the right place? what am i really being charged? and is it eating into my returns? is my advisor a fiduciary? is he always a fiduciary? a good place to start is with an independent registered investment advisor.

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♪ good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" here own cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square

among the stories front and center, the eu has approved a gene therapy treatment for an inherited retinal disease known as luxterna. it was developed by spark therapeutics based in philadelphia the approval triggers a $25 million milestone payment to spark from switzerland's novartis spark had licensed commercial rights to the treatment outside of the u.s. to novartis earlier this year. overstock.com ceo patrick burn is planning to complete the sale of the retail business by february he did not name any potential suitors. he tells "the wall street journal" he's basing overstock's future on a variety of blockchain related projects including a trading system called t equals zero and the white house has invited the heads of volkswagen, daimler to a meeting next week the meeting is reportedly being

called to discuss trade policy amazon, meanwhile, a very aktsive on black friday for n e those that want to skip the mall experience deirdre bosa is tracking this. >> good morning, guys. most people turn to amazon when they want to shop online especially shoppers already paying for prime membership. they get free two-day shipping amazon doesn't always have the best deal. it could be wiser to go to a traditional retailer like a walmart or best buy. many have beefed up their online shopping platform and shipping prices so first, let me run you through a 65 inch samsung 4k smart tv. now, to the penny, it costs the same at amazon, walmart, and best buy so let's take a look at shipping options. that one there costs $997.99 amazon, it delivers for free by

november 27th. walmart, a full week later, december 3rd and best buy for free as soon as sunday, november 25th. so best buy actually has the advantage here let's take a look at an asus lap dop best buy is listing as a door buster. you can see it's $119.99 amazon is $10 more expensive than the same laptop on ebay shipping options if you are interested in this but you are getting such a discount from best buy, shipping options are somewhat similar as you can see here they all deliver by thursday, november 29th which is when this becomes available. let's take a look at the nintendo switch. a very popular item, expected to be a popular item this shopping season exact same price at least on the surface. but here's where you get some differentiation. when you get to shipping options. amazon will deliver it to you the next day walmart got tricky when i asked it to deliver to my zip code here in san francisco,

the price moved up to $360 and it would not be delivered until december 3rd or 4th. so we'll continue to monitor the deals throughout the day but if you are shopping around, certainly wise to look at some of the different sites and read the fine print particularly when it comes to shipping >> okay. thank you for that happy thanksgiving and happy holidays our next guest is on the front lines monitoring black friday sales scott cutler is ebay's senior vice president of the americas he joins us right now from the company's black friday command center in san jose good morning to you. >> good morning. yes, the command center here on black friday. >> what are you seeing in the command center what actually surprised you? >> yesterday was a surprising day. $3.5 billion of online sales yesterday. most of that was happening on a

mobile device. everybody is looking for the best deals today things like a samsung tv, apple branded products, a nintendo switch are things people and consumers are searching to find. the best deal available is on ebay guaranteed. >> in terms of product type, though, being sold, what do you think the hottest item you'll see? or not item, items overthe weekend. >> branded items are hot the top searched item was an adidas yeezy boost monopoly for millennials has been very popular. toys in general this holiday season is something that's really exciting. for the first time we launched our own toy book in toytopia and we are trying to highlight those things that are rare, retro, and right now you can buy 3457b8gic gath ii ii iic -- a t.

but you can find those things today like a funko pop doll that are difficult to find. those things everyone is searching around trying to find that perfect toy for the holidays. >> what's not working right now? >> you know, i think for us right now we're really just trying to show up for the consumers for the best deals it's a highly competitive environment. we're competing incredibly against all the retailers. ebay is the number two e-commerce player. we'll sell more in online sales than walmart, macy's, and best buy combined it's an extremely competitive environment. and for the consumer, they want to come to a site and know they're getting a best deal. as you just cited, getting it very quickly and free are the themes that we have to play through through the holiday season >> what kind of price point are

we talking about average price point right now on ebay >> it really depends on the product. that samsung tv is a hot item. today we've got in the watch category from the ultra luxury to a 10% off on a rolex watch to about $200 for a citizen blue angel. across all categories, we've got an amazing array of price points from the low asp items to the high asp items i think for us our differentiation against other retailers is to be able to find those things that you can't find anywhere else that are uniquely ebay some of those things are very, very expensive, but some of those things are that must-have item at a low price point. and giving that selection of opportunity and choice for consumers is really the balance that we're trying to strike. >> and on your shipping costs, what's happening with shipping in your areas and how is shipping costs changing this year from last year?

>> well, for deals specifically which i'll talk about, we have 110% price match guarantee on every deal that's available on any other retailer or e-commerce site today all of those items ship for free so you don't have to pay anything there's no subscription costs associated with it and most of those items will be received to a buyer under three days so shipping is a key part of our value proposition across retail. >> all right scott cutler hanging out in the command center -- working in the command center i shouldn't say just hanging out. we appreciate your time and wish you had a happy holidays >> thanks a lot. happy holidays black friday doesn't mean a trip to the mall necessarily it's also a big day at the car lot. so phil lebeau, what do you have coming up? >> it used to be november and december were sleepy in the auto business not anymore.

how important are they and how important isla fda bckriy for the automakers we'll talk about that when "squawk box" returns ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ comfort. what we deliver by delivering.

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fidelity. open an account today. welcome back to "squawk box. futures right now kind of interesting because, you know, if oil prices are such a big tax cut, then why don't the futures go up when oil goes down they don't because it is a big oil component in the s&p and we produce so much in this country now that it's not always great news but look at oil. look at oil. look, look, look

hello! out there, if you're not listening or hopefully they don't have the mute button on. but we want to call your attention to this. 7% drop today after what's already been -- we've talked about that looks like beaver creek, doesn't it? one of those double diamonds that is unbelievable >> we lost a couple bucks in just the past 20 minutes >> yeah. just the past 20 minutes let's talk about this. oil stocks, obviously, are feeling the pressure as well as you can see. jurrien, what's going on >> well, as is the case with the stock market, it's part fundamental, part technical, right? the fundamentals are shifting. what we thought was going to be an undersupply situation now for 2019 is looking like an oversupply situation then you have the selling. >> they're all long oil thinking the sanctions would take a lot off the market didn't happen.

>> january and february was -- the people were short volatility october was people who were long the momentum even like the cryptos. and this is part of it >> we had supply disruptions and things that we think are going to cut off supply or add to supply it's never been like this. without a demand component and there's got to be some nagging concern that we're missing something globally about demand. >> hedge funds are getting shut down and liquidated over being in over -- out over their skis and i think the commodity market is part of that story. >> to that point, the long story was a big trade and a lot of people got that wrong. that gas has popped if you look at that. oil volatility also, we don't talk about this a lot. but the ovix, highest level

since 1416 when the market sold off then also since the financial crisis. we're seeing a lot more volatility in the oil markets especially as we go into the opec meeting december 6th. we're hoping for a production cut. but now with president trump's thanking saudi arabia for lower oil prices, the thinking is perhaps this reinforces the notion there will not be the resolve needed to have that cut at the opec meeting and that oil prices could go lower. here we are at $50.88 on ti. >> and the risk is it cuts into earnings and for the credit markets, the risk is that we see a repeat of 2015 where -- >> where you had high grades -- yeah >> we're not seeing that yet, but that's what people are worrying about >> all right thanks, jurrien. let's get to phil. phil has more on this big day for autosales. can you get me something bigger

than a v-8 gas is going to be like $1 a gallon do you have a v-12 suv with, like, four rows of seats can i get one of those heck, just give me a school bus. >> if you want it, we can find it for you we can find it for you you want to go back to the days when you were first driving when you were getting 10 miles to the gallon you do want to go back to those days, joe. >> i'm already there >> joe, we're at a chevy dealership in the western suburbs of chicago we expect a big day today. black friday really when you look at the holiday season, it's becoming increasingly important for the automakers it used to be that november and december relatively sleepy and then about 15, 20 years ago, the luxury automaker started pushing sales. that brought more people in. now you see with all of the automakers, november and december are two of the busiest months of the year for the automakers when you look at auto sales this

year, we could see at the rate we're going right now the 2018 auto sales could eclipse the sales pace for last year again, over17 million. it would be the fourth straight year we've seen that as you look at shares of the big three. gm, ford, and fiat chrysler. all of them counting on strong holiday sales. it's the same thing we've been talking about for months what's selling trucks, especially pickup trucks, and suvs cars you want a car, you can get one at a great discount right now. nobody's buying them and that's why you're not seeing strong sales when it comes to small cars or sedans guys, back to you. >> it matters, doesn't it, phil? you had this report ready to go before we dropped 6.5%, 7% again today after we've been down from 82 in just a couple of weeks it seems like. unbelievable. >> joe, that's why people are

so -- they've been rotating into suvs over the last year. that's going to continue especially with lower gas prices >> people do have kids and dogs. you know, it's -- if you look around, in the parking lot, i used to be surprised but i'm not anymore when there aren't any sedans very few of them left around it's amazing, phil all right. and why wouldn't automakers want to give you that how much more money do they make on those, phil it's not even close, right >> oh, a lot more. the profit margins on suvs and pickup trucks are far higher think about this, joe. the average pickup truck now is about to eclipse the transaction price people what they're paying at dealerships think about that when we were growing up, give me a pickup truck for $24,000 max. now it's not uncommon to see them going for well over $50,000. >> phil, i don't thinker around, but i looked up, when i first

started driving there was a big oil shock. in 1973. gasoline prices spiked, big-time from 33 cents a gallon to 52 cents a gallon it was a huge -- but those were the -- do you remember you probably remember. >> i was pumping gas in those days, man. i remember it well >> yeah? >> i was in high school in aruba back then. but i was going to ask phil, are people buying this year's model at discounts because they need to be cleared? or are they buying next year's models this late in the year >> there's a little bit of both. those days of discounting we used to see in october, november, december, we see less and less of that now the automakers are much better at sort of gradually bringing in the next year's models they're doing it actually earlier. so you will still see some discounting, just not to the degree we used to see, let's say, eight to ten years ago.

>> all right, phil, thanks coming up, which retailer has the right stuff this holiday season and will falling oil prices help the consumer now down about 6%-plus on wti. former jcpenney ceo allen questrom will be our guest we'll be right back. transformi. dealing with millions of customers a year, like this one. no, i'm pretty sure i didn't order a squirrel playing a guitar. that's why you work with watson. it works with your systems to resolve calls faster and improve customer satisfaction. i detected fraud and helped reassign a new credit card. honey, they're overnighting us a new card. woooo!!! woooo!!! for ai that works with tools you already use, choose watson. hello! the best ai for the job. hello! something is transforming and our world.. it's the longevity economy - americans 50+ driving 7.6 trillion dollars... of economic activity every year. right before our eyes,

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welcome back to "squawk box. oil was on our radar all morning. it is down 40% under $51 after a long slide that we have seen from '82 branches below 60 now. this morning, we are talking about that with futures still off. equity futures sometimes go down based on oil going down whether it is economic growth or because all the components and averages

and whatever reason. let's see whether a decline and oil gas prices will help consumers this holiday season. joining us is the former ceo of allen. remember when life is simple >> i do, joe >> i remember when i was pumping gas, it was 20 cents a gallon, i beat you by eight cents on that one. >> you did even as a ceo, retailer, oil is coming down, a tax cut for consumers. it is not like that anymore. >> it is a bigger thing than tax goods. most families have two cars. every time they go to the pump from now to christmas it is going to save them $10 or $15 based on the type of car that's right in the hand of that point in time. they can go out and spend that for the christmas season

>> we are supposed to care about all the domestics and we do. we can use a lot more in this country. it was great when we are buying from the middle southeast. but, what it is affecting our guys right here and they shut down something and they cap the horizontal drill reserve when they get down this low, don't they >> you have to take a lot of credit for the american innovative in the oil industry came up with so many techniques, independent of all other i countries in terms of production now it is a negative right now i am sure that'll change, hopefully it will not change before christmas >> who's best prepared for the season or someone who has run so many different retail entities who do you like best

>> i have been impressed by the number of retailers and really improved their offering and presentation i think that you can take the mini store targets, walma, the businesses that got into that aggressively i think macy's has done a terrific job making some transformation and quite frankly i want to complement nbc and macy's for a terrific parade but, i think it was a great presentation and a lot of credit as well as macy's. that's a great way to start off the christmas season >> i agree i was not there in person this year, it was cold. you could not tell there were singers out there in sleeveless i don't know how they do that

but they do. >> hi allen. as you think of category, what do you think makes the difference this year compares to years passed >> toys r' us going out of business which is a negative, it is certainly a big positive for most of the stores whether it is target or walmart or costco. there is a lot of closures going on around the country. departments are going up to help t macy's that's been a big plus for many retailers over the last several months that'll be continue to be the case as more stores closed we still have many stores based on the number of people in the country. that makes it confident.

the long-term, i am very impressive by some of these younger retailers coming up with strategies online and in the store. it is very difficult to build a successful profitable business if you don't have a brick and mortar franchise most of the internet only company, do not make any money i think also to improve the in purchase story in the store, it is something they have been working on that's why you are seeing a lot of retailers starting to come back and see results it is an exciting time there is so many challenges out there. it comes to the table on that. >> i want to talk about minimum wage jan says it is $15 because of amazon point i don't know if all retailers can afford that. former ceo

allen, thank you >> have a great holiday. >> coming up, we'll look at oil one more time, macy's ceo is going to be on "squawk on the street" in just a few minutes. we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ i'm all for my neighborhood. i'm all for backing the community that's made me who i am. i'm all for my theatre, my barbershop and my friends. because the community doesn't just have small businesses, it is small businesses. and that's why american express founded small business saturday.

so, tomorrow, november 24th, let's all get up, get out, and shop small. i got croissant. small business saturday. a small way to make a big difference.

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we want to thank dana and jan this morning for hanging out with us. we want to take a look at oil, it has taken quite a dip make sure you join us on monday, have a great weekend everybody, shop a lot "squawk on the street" begins right now. ♪ good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i am carl quintanilla with sara eisen and david faber. cramer is off today. hope you had a great thanksgiving we'll talk to jeff gennette, ceo