it is 5:00 a.m. and here are your top five at 5 a strong start to the holiday shopping season. new numbers this morning on retail's big weekend. morgan stanley out with a big call on your money they go bearish on america, bullish on another part of the world. the man who made that call is here exclusively. oil posting its worst week in years will it be opec to the rescue now. the crypto carnage to the rescue bitcoin breaking below $3500 countdown to shutdown. congress is ready to go to work today but the clock is ticking for another government shutdown.

deja vu on monday, november 26th, as "worldwide exchange" begins right now a little led zeppelin will get you going. hello and good morning from wherever in the world you may be watching i am brian sullivan. hope you have a had a great weekend or evening if you're in asia oil posting the biggest weekly loss in three years. things are looking a little bit more optimistic on this monday morning. dow futures up 262, s&p and nasdaq futures are higher as well oil, as we've said, remains a huge story last week up a little bit. wti crude up nearly 2% it's at $51.31 a barrel. no doubt president trump loves it no doubt the market likely hates it because of all of the debt that is tied to the oil and gas

companies. more on the markets coming up in a bit. first, today is expected to be the biggest shopping day of the year online. this could soon all change because now adobe says that last friday alone pulled in a report $6.2 billion in online sales a nearly 24% jump from one year ago. that huge spike in online sales means it's go time for a little company you may have heard about called amazon.com. contessa brewer is live at an amazon fulfillment center in new jersey >> reporter: hi there, brian i'm at one of 110 fulfillment centers across the united states for amazon it's one of 25 robotic centers worldwide. let me show you a little bit about how this works you see the infrared scanner, it's taking over the addresses it can process 382 packages per minute and they can speed that up or slow it down as needed then on this side, the conveyor belt takes it down the line and

it pushes all of these boxes off into individual docks to go out for delivery all right. so already the robots and the employees are in the midst of cyber monday mania amazon says last year on cyber mon it had about 3.5 million items ordered every hour and then we know that amazon is now extending cyber monday offers until december 1st so if we take a look, you mentioned at the top, brian, this surge of online shopping even on black friday when we typically see people out in retailers, big box stores. if you see a record number of people online, imagine what happens on cyber monday when you have all of these specials what we know is that deloit says overall this holiday season online shopping could surge 22%. all of that provides other retailers giving amazon a run

for their money. amazon says we'll offer free shipping through the holidays, even if you're not a prime customer all of that free shipping, whatnot, comes at a price. amazon said in its third quarter it spent $6.6 billion, guess what that's nearly double its operating income i'm looking around here. i'm thinking that maybe my orders alone, brian, are worth 10% of the boxes you're seeing. >> there are many things to like about contessa brewer, but the one thing to like about contessa, she no doubt knows i can't stand the phrase cyber monday and that's why you said it i think five times just now, contessa i know you did that just for us here >> reporter: i hate rubbing you the wrong way, brian, but if that's the name of it. how much does it irritate you that cyber monday now takes up a whole week >> exactly it's like steam loek comeau dem

sunday or modem wednesday. what items does amazon expect to be most popular on this blank monday. >> of course it says that its own amazon products are the big sellers, partly because they're deeply discounted. you can get an amazon echo dot for less than half of that today. but also i noticed in the list of prices that were going out, they're offering 50% off of some toys and 30% off of some lego products i'm a mom of small twins you almost never see leggos on sale they're expecting the toys to be the big sellers and the amazon technology offerings like the fire sticks, echo dots, those kinds of things. >> contessa brewer, let me be the first to wish you a very happy cyber monday >> reporter: thank you. >> i'll send an e-mail to your aol account today. turn the modem on, contessa. see you in a bit thank you. let's turn back to the markets. few toors are up triple digits

treasuries 3.06% on the bond let's go worldwide you want to know how asia did. the asia markets have been riding what we've done china has been the big disaster this year. down 30% in 12 months. the nikkei up and the hang seng was the biggest winner up about 1.75% and in the european trade, a lot of green on the screen look at that look at italy. italy has been one of the main trouble spots. a lot of budget issues there concerned about the banking system nothing is settled for now but yet 3% gain for the italian markets. markets like that overall. a lot of green on the screen there. we noted wti trading crude up a little bit still in the low $51 a barrel range and bitcoin, might have seen barons talking about the crypto collapse. bitcoin at 39.06 on the exchange ouch. let's talk more about all of this bill stone is co-chief investment officer at avalon

we often say this here, the average viewer probably doesn't care about oil only inasmuch as they put gasoline in their car, but the markets care not because energy is that heavily weighted anymore but because there's so much debt attached to all these oil and gas companies that we've talked about for years is that one of the bigger market risks out there on a macro level right now? >> i think it is you're right it's only about 5.5% of the s&p it doesn't show up that much directly in the s&p but in terms of the high yield index you have about 15% of the high yield index in energy bonds so those have certainly gotten, you know, frankly hammered along with obviously energy stocks and so i think that sends a message you know, there's a lot of people that look to the credit markets for a signal on what's going to go on in stocks i do kind of i think you have to take it with a bit of a grain of salt because of what we know now that energy is a big part of the high yield

market. >> is that why we had the worst thanksgiving week in nearly a decade was it really oil's fault? >> i certainly think it was some of it. so, you know, i think, again, some people also take the signal that, hey, oil is getting killed so it's a signal in the global economy, demand is falling off i do think things as much as i don't like to say it are a bit different this time in the sense of supply, right >> uh-oh >> it is i live in houston, the home of the supply of oil here in the united states and i think the key is that we have this supply. i don't think demand is falling off that much. yes, it's probably coming off some because we know the global economy is decelerating a bit, but i think that's the difference i do think you don't have to worry quite as much. you add that to the lack of i'll say news flow around the two most important or other most important things which is really the fed and worries about a policy error and then also about trade with china and that also added i think to the woes of

last week. >> having been to houston once or twice recently, by the way, i know your famous highway let's talk about the famous merges that you guys had you mentioned the fed, bill, and you mentioned oil and gas. they play into each other. >> yeah. >> if you are the fed and you see oil falling, maybe it takes a little bit of steam sort of out of your inflation story. >> well, and i think that's what the markets maybe are cheering a little bit about is because we get the vice chair on tuesday, weget chairman powell on wednesday. if they talked a little bit more dovishly or, you know, forget that, maybe the markets just takes whatever they say a little bit more dovishly because they don't need to worry about inflation coming from oil, you're right that could turn some sentiment a bit better here. >> would that be, i guess, the biggest good news story right now, which is any sign that the fed has gone a little more dovish >> yes, because certainly as you know, the market has started to really reduce the chances of a

lot of rate hikes next year and if the fed then signals, okay, we're going to go along with that, i think that takes a lot of pressure off. you add to hopefully we get something between trump and president xi this weekend and, you know, really we could see a lot better news. again, we have to wait and see if we see those things those are the things to watch this week. >> very quickly here, bill, before we let you go you are live in houston so we're going to give you a lot of time, which is this, where is the best opportunity? where does avalon see the best opportunity for its clients? >> i think you go to the more cyclical areas those are the parts of the market that are smashed. energy is interesting with oil down so low. think about integrated oils that don't have that much exposure. the two are discretionary. they have been smashed the consumer still remains in very good shape. it is normal to see the stocks trade off or at least not trade well during this holiday season

because, you know, you see all the headlines. margins are going to fall apart, all of that. typically after that you see a nice rally out of them so i think that's a decent spot to look for as well. >> bill stone, avalon advisors out in houston our second home. thank you, bill. take care. >> thank you. now to what we just talked about, the energy market crude oil a little bit higher today. we fell nearly 8% in brent crude on friday. brent has now dropped more than 25% since the beginning of october. wti which we buy and sell here, down about 30% in that same period you have more supply slowdown in demand growth and the broad selloffs to the equity markets sort of all weighing on energy or maybe energy weighed on the equity markets. let's bring in john kilduf and a cnbc contributor and a man, no doubt, who's getting a lot of use. i mean, we're -- a couple months ago we had the president urging the saudis to talk to the ceo of

aramco, pump more oil. oil is at 85 and the president was sort of demanding. watch what you wish for, right >> it's been an epic selloff for sure, brian. part of it is the supply situation and what president trump's sort of pump fake he called on the global suppliers by giving wavers to buyers of the iranian oil. that was the biggest surprise in the market the saudis were figuring a crunch at this time after november 1st after the sanctions kicked in, and it vanished the crunch vanished and it turned into a surplus. >> has the big error, i'll call it a math mistake. commodities is math. too much and the prices go down, too little, the prices go up. >> you like it easy like that. >> i'm a simple guy. it's also 5:12 in the morning. did we over estimate how much iranian oil will come in >> no doubt. >> the sanctions kick in, they'll never sell oil again no indication that's the case. >> right. >> they're selling at discounted

prices because people are taking it on the sly. >> to a degree, yes. they were certainly trying to work the angles and there was a lot of talk that they were going to maneuver their supply onto the market i think the more reputable companies weren't going to touch it until they got the wavers. >> we've done a lot of work in the oil and gas industry and the permean boon has created jobs. look at this graphic right now as of september according to wood mckenzie, the united states is at 11.6 million barrels a day. we are the biggest producer in the world. russia at 11.4, the saudis at 11 that's september data. "the wall street journal" saying blame it on the united states. >> fantastic reporting by the journal and the journal also pointed out what's coming. this is like sort of only the beginning. you know when the big tidal wave comes and all the water goes out. >> everything is fine. >> here comes this big wave, sure >> that's what we're facing next

year no doubt about it. we've put about 2.5 million barrels on the market in just about a year and a half's time that's the entire production of iran to put in here. we are not energy independent. we consume 19 million a day and we are importing 7 million a lot of what we make are not suitable. >> why do we need to import? because there's different kinds of oil and you need to put it in different places. >> that's right. i want to put that in perspective. we are becoming energy dominant for sure and we're becoming sort of the swing producer. the problem the saudis, russians and others have, our guys aren't going to cut back. they're going to tough it out. the saudis and russians have to drive these folks out of business and drive the price way down in order for this thing to zblekt we have an opec meeting december 6th

we're going to find out if that changes the game at all. john, i have a feeling we'll see you on cnbc soon have a great day. meantime, folks, a developing story out of japan. mitsubishi's board has voted to remove chairman carlos ghosn as chairman of the board. he was arrested last week that he underreported his income by millions of dollars. nissan has fired him an internal investigation found ghosn used company money for personal use and the third part is france's renault. they're keeping him as ceo but have temporarily replaced him. the japanese media says he's innocent but he's not commenting publicly. there are three stocks you need to keep on your radar today. let's find out what they are with frank holland. >> i know you hate cyber monday. how about mixed bag monday cars, all the tows and tomato

soup gm is expected to announce it's close being its assembly plant in the canadian city of oshuwa reports say it will shut down before the end of next year and the move is part of gm's shift of hybrid and lower emission cars. now over to the tomato soup. campbell's soup is posing a deal with dan loeb to end a bitter proxy fight. they will add nominees to the board. it will give the hedge fund a say in naming the next ceo the settlement will come days before the next shareholder's meeting. that stock is down 15 pers perce% year to date the company said it's ended talks to buy plantronics the head sets are popular nowadays with fortnite they walked away from a potential deal due to

disagreement over price. >> frank, we'll see you in a bit with trending stories. meantime, we are getting started here on a busy monday. "worldwide exchange" on debt a done deal or doom deal the brexit battle. we are live in london with the details. plus, incredible images out of france. protestors clashing with police over rising fuel prices using fireworks. later on, a big bold call in america. the man who made that call is here on wex. (sounds of race cars) the same iot technology on the ibm cloud that helps race teams improve performance and safety. bye. girls, don't wave at strangers. can now be built into everything we drive.

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and ask how you get xfinity mobile included with your internet. plus, get $200 back when you when you buy a new smartphone. xfinity mobile. it's simple. easy. awesome. click, call or visit a store today. we are coming off, of course, the worst thanksgiving week for stocks in nearly a decade things a little more optimistic. stock futures up 200 points. 240 on the dow s&p and the nasdaq you see a lot of green and you think, okay, some optimism the hardest working man in show business, jim cramer up and tweeting moments ago our friend jim tweeted this out, classic bear market behavior. we crater all week and then we open up huge on nothing but because we are so over sold it is hard to let things go so obviously that is jim's view. jim tweeting out early this morning. obviously a nice win by the eagles it was a close one, but they squeaked it out.

we'll have more of his market views throughout the day on "squawk on the street. classic bear market behavior. major developments over the weekend in the brexit battle the e.u. officially endorsing theresa may's plan to leave the european union but it is far from a done deal may now needs help to sell her plan to the u.k. parliament and the e.u. parliament. let's get to willem marks live in brussels. where do we stand now? >> reporter: so, brian, that brexit battle you mentioned has essentially moved from brussels and now will take place in westminster. over the weekend theresa may came here to get the seal of approval from her 27 counterparts from across the european union and they gave it to her pretty straightforwardly. the mass was on her side here. back in london it will be a lot more challenging and that is because not only do you have the opposition parties saying they will vote against her withdrawal agreements as it currently stands, but you have members of the small northern irish body

saying they may abstain on the vote you have dozens of members of her own conservative party who have said publicly they will try to vote it down when it comes to parliament in the next few weeks. that's why theresa may starting yesterday essentially has launched a campaign saying this is the best and indeed only option available to british lawmakers. they have got to vote for this otherwise they risk facing no brexit, things could get reversed or no deal and that could be economically cataclysmic for the u.k. >> willem marks live in brussels for us we'll see you soon thank you very much. let's dmig a little bit deeper to david owen chief european economist david, here state side at cnbc we have a new show coming on primetime called "deal or no deal." very popular in the united states we're bringing it back the reason i mentioned that is not a tease for the network, it's that we in the media like to have the binary outcomes. deal or no deal, yes or no

heads or tails it's nowhere near that clear or simple with the e.u. and this vote, is it? >> no, it's not. i mean, she's going to lose so i think the first round of votes which will be scheduled for wednesday the 12th of december do note that week will be a week of heightened uncertainty more generally about europe because we have the ecb press conference the following day. then we have other e.u. heads of states which i'm sure theresa may will be very keen to go back to to see if she can get anymore concessions out of brussels which seems very unlikely. this is only the first point she'll then try and push the vote through again in parliament even if she wins i will highlight that she has to get it legislated and enshrined into u.k. law which will take weeks and weeks again of negotiating with u.k. lawmakers. it's just the first hurdle as i say, she's unlikely to win this

even if she does, you know, her problems continue. the other thing i would highlight growing cause in the u.k. for maybe a stopgap in the u.k.'s arrangement parliament will try to take control of the process very interesting in the next week or so what happens in the palace in westminster. >> let's talk about the week of december 10th. it's hard to keep track of all of the key dates here. you expect that week could be very volatile for the markets? >> extremely so. i mean, there's more concern about the ecb and we've got the next press conference meeting on that thursday. obviously a lot of discussion about teltrose, italy. on the previous day, on that wednesday basically parliamentarians have voted down the deal that theresa may has brought back from brussels draghi, a lot of questions about what's going to happen in a true

no deal scenario we get the heads of states at the end of that week, noise and confusion about what will happen theresa may will have to try to force the vote back through parliament over the subsequent next two or three weeks. >> do we buy stocks on that? do we just flip a coin and buy stocks and hope a deal gets worked out >> i have absolutely no idea i just buy volatility. to me it's raising it and seeing sterling going up and down the gild market doing a lot of different things with the stock market it's more difficult to say by the way, we've got more european gdp we'll know more about having strength in the eurozone recovery which is really important for the european equity markets in terms of brexit, it will be a lot of volatility. during that week of the 10th of december is the primary one to focus on. >> most honest man in markets right now. i don't have any idea. that's the most honest answer i've heard david owens of jeffries, thank

you. we'll see you. let's stick with overseas news police clashing with protestors. they used water guns and tear gas to disperse them another check quickly on markets. stock futures are looking solid. up 250 points on dow futures, but you saw jim cramer's tweet, we told you about it classic bear market behavior he is not convinced still this monday morning things are looking in the green. still ahead, we are live in washington congress returning to work why the word shutdown, yeah, shutdown needs to be back on your radar are there men at wk?or is anybody at work in d.c. we're back does it make the short list? yeah, i'm afraid so. it's okay. this is what we've been planning for. knowing what's important to you is why 7 million investors work with edward jones.

stock futures indicating a jump morgan stanley says not too fast why the big bank turned bearish on america we'll hear from the man making that call up ahead. retail detail. the holiday shopping season kicking into full swing. and countdown to a shutdown. congress returning to work today. the clock ticking towards another government shutdown. we are live in d.c. with the latest as "worldwide exchange" rolls on on this monday morning.

welcome back and good monday morning. 5:29 on the east coast hope you had a spectacular weekend and your week is getting off to a great start the markets are looking like they can get off to a great start. remember, the worst thanksgiving week for equities since all the way back in 2010 right now stock futures are solidly in the green up about 236 on the dow. s&p and the nasdaq as well we'll see if that holds. it has been volatile let's get a check on this morning's other top headlines outside of the world of money and business nbc's frances rivera in new york with those frances? >> reporter: hi, brian as 50 million americans continue to head home, a winter storm wreaked havoc from the great plains to the great lakes. more than 1,000 flights were canceled between chicago o'hare and kansas city. it was wicked on the roads massive 20-car pile up near denver as drivers try to

navigate the snow in the streets. luckily no one was injured. nikki haley said the united nations will hold a meeting this morning. the ukrainian military says russian forces fired on three of its ships injuring six soldiers. they've seized three ukrainian ships they claim trespassed into russian waters illegally both the european union and nato have urged restrain and are calling for russia to de-escalate the station. nasa is counting down to mars the billion dollar insight mars lander is set to touch down on the martian atmosphere after a six-month journey through space. insight is designed to study the surface of the red planet. brian, send it back to you. >> very cool stuff there frances rivera thank you very much. see you tomorrow. meantime, it is back to work for congress after the thanksgiving break

lawmakers are returning to work. the number one issue on the docket, passing a spending bill to avert another government shutdown stop us if you've heard this before let's get to ylan mui who has heard this before. deja vu all over, ylan. >> reporter: that's right. it is crunch time. congress has ten working days left to negotiate a spending deal and prevent another government shutdown before december 7th now practically speaking the stakes are not that high congress has already passed bills to fund about 75% of the federal government so even if there is a shutdown it would be fairly limited politically speaking, this is all about the border wall. he's calling for full funding of the border wall but the house is only offering $5 billion the senate has less money for it, just 1.6 billion this means that lawmakers not only have to reconcile those numbers themselves, they have to

get president trump on board as well the other thing that makes this messy is bob mueller, special counsel overseeing the russia investigation. the democrats want to attach a bill protecting his work on the government spending package. mitch mcconnell is very clearly not agreeable to that. this week they're going to vote on the next speaker, likely going to be nancy pelosi will she win and can she unify the caucus brian, just another week in the swamp. back over to you. >> it's really interesting what you're talking about because there's been talk out there that m mueller's investigation may not be scuttled by the president but they will star of it of funding. the men and women need salaries and resources for investigation. so they're trying -- democrats are trying to protect it by guaranteeing funding in that spending bill.

>> reporter: well, the big question in the spending bill is what types of protections for bob mueller himself could democrats potentially put in place. so would they -- would, for example, bob mueller need to be fired, if you worked at the department of justice and the democrats want to make sure any documents, paperwork, whatever has been done, that would survive. they want to make sure he has a recourse to the court system. those are some of the sticky questions that democrats are trying to put forth as part of the spending bill. it's unclear, as we said, if republicans are going to be on board with that, particularly because senate majority leader mitch mcconnell has said he doesn't see a problem, that those protections already exist within department of justice protocol, but democrats say they want to make sure this exists in the law as well.

>> ylan mui, thank you very much appreciate it. let's bring in peter bookbar. dow futures is up 12250. everything is fine. >> we got over sold and we're set up for a bounce if -- >> jim cramer tweeted out. it's classic bear market behavior he thinks we're over sold and we're bouncing and it probably doesn't mean anything. do you agree with jim? >> i think he's right. i emphasize short term when i talk about a bounce, and it could be helped out by powell on wednesday and certainly trump xi meeting friday and saturday. >> let's highlight that. let's not forget about the federal reserve this week, also g-20 in argentina. thursday and friday with the president and the president of china are scheduled to meet. how important is that? i mean, if there's handshake,

laughing, good for equities? >> the two major challenges the market has faced is the higher cost of capital, rising interest rates, shrinking fed balance sheet in addition to the reduction over seas and worries about the slowdown in global trading because of worries about tariffs. on the global trade side you could get some relief if there is a -- not an agreement because there's nothing to agree upon. it's an agreement to discuss about a potential agreement. >> an agreement to an agreement. >> an agreement to discuss about the potential of an agreement. >> a deal to discuss a potential deal. >> exactly they're not going to have details to discuss on friday and saturday >> okay, but that's -- what if somebody storms out of the room? what if we leave argentina, it doesn't look like we got anywhere >> then we'll see tariffs go from 10% to 25% a month later. that will be a problem a lot of american businesses say they can handle 10% but 25%

tariff will be a big problem. >> is the oil drop good from a fed perspective because it pulls a little steam >> the fed tells you they focus on the zblourt maycourt. >> maybe they view it as a slowdown story and that could fall to the fed. >> it gives them license it gives them optionality. >> you have the hall pass? >> absolutely. the fed has a problem. they've raised and they're criticized -- everyone is criticizing them for hiking too fast, but the real fed funds rate is still only zero. does the fed want to be trapped near 2% or near zero, which is what happened in japan, or do they want to continue to get themselves further away from zero which would give them opportunity to cut when you get the next down turn

now i know people say the fed is going to raise this into a downturn i promise we will have this as a down turn at some point. do you want to have a downturn with the fed fund at 2 or at 3 >> in the meantime, bank loans are selling off. energy bonds are worried we'll get to that another day. peter bookvar. >> no free lunch. >> never, anywhere see you soon appreciate it. coming up, a retail red flag why stacy whitlet said she was not blown away by the kickoff to this year's holiday shopping season morgan stap l ll lly -- morgan y downgrading. for your heart...

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there are still 28 shopping days until christmas there had been a lot of optimism maybe there still is what can we learn from this weekend's trends let's bring in stacy whitlet, a cnbc contributor are you now the grinch, stacy? you were so optimistic, now you've seen the numbers trickle in are you disappointed by what we have seen over the last couple of days? >> brian, on cyber monday, your favorite holiday of the year, we have to look back on what actually happened on thursday and friday traffic was down between 1 and 9% that's a pretty wide range certainly traffic is negative here that's a backdrop. we have the best consumer backdrop that we've had in recent history

so i still think the malls have an issue and there's a big traffic issue out there. will that make up the difference online in some cases it will but in some cases it definitely won't. >> okay. when will it will and when will it won't sound like dr. seuss just now. >> seriously i know it's early for you well, you know, we're looking at cyber monday, which is going to be about 8 billion in sales versus about only 6 billion online for black friday. so i think in some sense shoppers do wait till cyber monday, i love saying that word because i know you love it so i think, you know, certainly they're waiting for deals but, again, those come at lower margins here but you have to look at who, again, are the strong players with free shipping and pickup in store. it's target. who's driving traffic? it's khol's. who has the best product it's foot locker because of nike

there are still winners out there, but the mall is still under pressure with closings as we see more and more dark holes from jcpenney and sears. >> as we await dial up thursday, here's my thing, stacey, which is is the calendar that much -- does it matter anymore used to focus on black friday, whatever they call today, all of that stuff it seems like everything is stretched out so much. i don't know when we're going to get data points that give us a clear indication maybe not until after christmas. >> no, i think that's -- that's an excellent point, which is it doesn't matter anymore forget black friday. this year thanksgiving had the same exact deals as black friday so forget black friday thanksgiving is the new black friday and cyber monday is the new, i don't know, thanksgiving. so, you know, you have a period of five days where everybody is trying to drive traffic, give away stuff and drive market share. you have to look at the five days

black friday started november 1st. we have to wait and see and get through today. >> i remember perusing the website, dialed up my modem, waited eight minutes through the noise, checking out the website of a major box retailer. i was seeing black friday specials two weeks ago. >> oh, definitely. definitely macy's starts the first of the month. amazon was the middle of the month. so it's -- black friday is gone. it's history it's black friday month and, again, cyber monday is becoming so much more important because online sales are up high 20s that's where the business is to be won sadly sometimes that comes at a margin hit. >> we have to create a new month, spendvember. >> i like that. >> happy cyber monday. send me a 5 1/4 inch floppy disk. on deck, turning bearish morgan stanley just came out with a huge call on your money

later on, a staggering stat on apple's fall. it is your rbi you've got to hear it. stick around

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welcome back stock futures solidly in the green. dow futures up 251 points. your next guest is making a big call on the united states and the rest of the world. morgan stanley's andrew sheets is making two calls in one he's downgrading american stocks to under weight and issuing the rare double upgrade from underweight to over weight andrew sheets joining us exclusively on "worldwide exchange." welcome. what is the basis for your bearishness on the united states >> well, i think it's a couple of factors the first is we have a below consensus growth forecast for the u.s. economy next year we have u.s. growth slowing all the way down to a 1 pe% annualid

growth we think that that one will reduce overall optimism for u.s. assets but specifically result in a pretty large deceleration in earnings growth for the s&p 500 from the current level of a 20 something percent year over year to 4% year over year. a slower economic backdrop weaker earnings growth you couple that with continued tightening in the first half of next year from the fed i think it's all a cocktail for a much more difficult outlook for u.s. equities relative to the world. >> the turning point, are they a turning point? if things have been great for eight years now, is this it? >> i think we are at an important shift, an important turning point for a number of key market relationships, right? in the back drop for 2019 i think you still have the decelerating growth, the rising inflation, the tightening central bank policy that was with us in 2018.

that continues, but i think for the relative relationships to the market, specifically u.s. growth versus the rest of the world. e.m. assets versus the rest of the world. for u.s. versus european bond yields for the dollar, i think you have a number of important shifts that often all hinge on this relationship between u.s. growth and what's going on elsewhere. again, 2018, an amazing year for the outperformance of u.s. assets we just think given the relative valuation, given the relative economic trends of the u.s. versus the rest of the world, that just is not going to be able to continue next year. >> you say we think the bear market is mostly complete for e.m., emerging markets emerging markets, like the world, andrew, a big place are there certain parts of the emerging markets that you find the most interesting right now at morgan stanley? >> well, we think the outlook in india is relatively attractive given what's been happening with oil prices recently.

we actually think the outlook in china next year could be somewhat better than low expectations currently say we see odds that we'll see further fiscal stimulus there that will help stabilize economy and growth our economists are reasonably stuck on brazil and the currency outlooks there we're cautious at mexico with more concerns or more negative view on the currency there relative to, say, brazil. >> but you didn't just go from under weight to neutral. you went from underweight to overweight you jumped a floor what caused that level of change >> well, i think a couple of elements drove that level of change you have had an enormous repricing of e.m. assets again, the price matters you had a very significant d rating of the e.m. equities. you had a very significant even on the fixed income widening e.m. still has challenges.

it's still going to have fundamental challenges next year the price is better. we also think that the dollar backdrop is a lot different and a lot more supportive next year as we think about slowing u.s. growth causes the fed to pause hiking rates in the middle of the year and that will support a weaker dollar throughout all of 2019 >> what does that mean though? we believe your weaker dollar thesis, what does it mean for u.s. equities then >> well, so look it will probably be a helpful thing for u.s. stocks. the u.a. markets have to con front you're no longer going to have the tail winds from fiscal stimulus and tax cuts you had this year. the comps are going to be a lot more different as you no longer have the incremental bump from tax cuts you're going to be facing a lower backdrop you'll see as well more pressure

on margins as the effects of tariffs that are already in the supply chain start to bite the dollar weakness will help the u.s., we just think that there are a number of other factors that are going to act as headwinds and make it a relative under performing market. >> andrew sheets, morgan stanley, big call. have a great day thank you very much. all right. time to find out what is coming up on "squawk box. andrew ross sorkin, i would imagine you will at some point reference the futures being up 250. just a wild stab in the dark. >> wild guess. we'll talk markets trying to figure out where they're going after a wild november if not difficult year bitcoin. lots of crypto a lot of conversation around the turkey table a year ago led to that big spike up near 20,000 just a year ago. now we're trending in a very, very different direction we're going to discuss that. we've got scott gottleib on a little bit later from the fda.

we want to talk to him about what's going on with all of the lettuce hopefully you did not eat over the weekend when it came to anxiety and nerves and not unfounded nerves about e. coli and then we have a very special guest. the ceo of pang, bom kim he is the ceo of the amazon, if you will, of south korea they got a huge investment from softbanc this is a pretty good chance of going public at the nasdaq here in the next year or two. if not that, perhaps somebody like jeff bezos or walmart will be calling them soon to buy them you'll want to watch that. they're doing very interesting things i met him when i was over there during the olympics last year. that's what we have going on right here. >> all right coupang. thank you very much, andrew ross

sorkin no time for the rbi. we'll do it tomorrow morning stock futures are up big the crypto collapse. you have oil ace big slide just getting started on cnbc we'll see you tomorrow have a great monday. xfinity mobile is a new wireless network

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good morning stock futures rebinding at least at this point after they had the worst decline since 2011 we'll have a rundown of the biggest movers straight ahead. elon musk revealing how close tesla came to failing during a recent rampup in model 3 production. cryptocurrency karen namica. bitcoin losing 30% of the value. an investor says it will keep falling. monday, november 26th, 2018, and "squawk box" continues right

now. ♪ ♪ live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box. good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. let's take a look at the u.s. equities this hour you will see things are indicated higher dow futures indicated up 250 points the s&p up 28 and the nasdaq indicated up by 106. this comes after some new lows that were set last week, at least month-long lows for the dow and the nasdaq the dow on friday closed at the lowest level since july 3rd. the s&p was at its lowest close since may 3rd. the nasdaq not at a month's long low but it is down 5% for the month of november so far and that's after dropping 9% for the month of october that shows you a little bit of the carnag