[ no audio ] the consumer very strong we'll watch out for that as well >> thanks for being with us today. >> always. >> the closing bell right now. it is time for the closing bell a speech tomorrow and a meeting between president trump of the united states. we will break down the market moving implications of both. plus the ceo of investment john vanguard. we'll get his thoughts on the market volatility plus bit coin, the fed and much more. >> i'm in for kelly evans. shares as tariffs take a toll on

china. we'll take a look at the broader impact on american auto stocks >> we'll discuss what the break up means for the dow the closing bell begins right now. stacks bouncing back dow was down at the low. it is up by 36 points. positive territory for the dow >> the nasdaq and russell are both lower it can close positive they would be higher. let's dive into the two big stories that are driving the market action. china and the fed

>> at the g20 summit larry said there was a possibility for a breakthrough to end the tariff back and forth between the two countries but said it would only happen if chien dna gives a lot ground he said the united states is better positioned to with stand a prolonged fight. he also took off on gm and decision to close five plants and layoff 14,000 workers which angered president trump yesterday. here is larry on that decision.

>> we are looking into this. it reflects the president's own disappointment regarding these actions. >> still nothing final but just after this the president tweeted out he was looking at cutting the gm subsidies and warning it wouldn't be a smart bet for general motors to have gone and moved their electric car production to china. she threatening potential consequences for this major american company which is laying off workers it is about reviving american manufacturing >> thank you very much for that. the other big event wall street is watching is at the economic club of new york steve joins us with what to

expect >> looking to see any other headlines. speaking now it doesn't look like anything. charlie evans in the past few minutes did say the fed still needs to raise rates to get back to a more neutral policy stance. the fed he said is on lookout for how far it should go not to go too far >> you can see there on your monitor ahead of a speech by powell tomorrow. they couldn't disappoint it is titled the feds framework for financial stability. they will probably talk more about that than the economy. we'll see to the extent he talks about the economy he may knowledge. it is generally upbeat view on the economy it came just the week before thanksgiving

emphasizing that rate hikes are dependent. he would be getting too far ahead of his economy which meets in just a few weeks. >> it does indeed. we'll be looking for that as well let's discuss all of this and what it means for the market chris is here. steve and holly here good afternoon to you all. if i start with you what's the biggest of those two factors >> they are equally as bilgg. if we get a deal we still have closure. the fed is in the way. it is ahead wind a head wind. that's the fear. that's bigger one. >> your view >> my view is china is more

important to the market. the fed is going to raise rates. it has to happen china is a wild card when and do we get a resolution to the trade war it will go well for the markets. that's what i say the most volatility is china. >> your thoughts on this in. >> i think it's china as well. the way i look at it is the fed is risk. we try to quantify what are the odds they will raise rates we try to measure that and put odds on it china is an uncertainty. we don't know what they are going to do. we don't know how they are going to respond we like to think there is resolution coming out of the g20 meeting but we really don't know that if it is only sort of resolved or the headlines come out where we don't even know it really isn't over yet i think they are uncertainty the

fed is a risk. we price it accordingly and move on >> the problem with trying to price it accordingly is this whole thing started. the market is paying more attention to the fed than they are with the tariff scenario so yes, it's effecting the market in both ways if by can't get over the fed hurdle it will move higher. >> negative week last week but it was a holiday shortened week. well off the lows today. >> if you rook at what the psychology is right now i would rather be a seller of these than buy others i think everyone would be. >> depends what your time line is everyone thought there was going to be a santa claus rally. if it does not happen what does it do? is it worse? is it better a lot of uncertainty a lot of funds under water at this point >> are we going to have a santa

claus rally? >> i think volatility likewe are having now so you want to take it in when you get opportunities like this to buy it at such a low price >> what's the top pick with that in mind? >> i like that because they a low cost producer. they have shown they are continuing to make money and they will continue to make money if oil hits $50 a barrel that's a great name you can pick up and add to your portfolio >> do you think we'll see yields higher by the end of this year or if we peaked for the medium term

>> i think it is more of a immediate yuchl term type of thing. we are right in the middle of it i would say on the downside you could probably slice through 3% and get to 295, 294. on the upside we could get to around 320 i think that rage broadens out and much more on the outside i would not be surprised to see rates over that intermediate term in the ten year rates going to about 355 i don't think you'll get lower again in this economic cycle the fed is going to continue on this path whether it is one more, two more, three more, they are going to continue hiking they are letting you know they are going to do it it is not an unknown thing i think the markets are preparing for it i do think rates are going to go

higher with it >> okay. 355. we'll keep an eye out for that still to come, are gm's layoffs a sign of a slow are economic slowdown? >> united technology is under pressure after signaling it will split all into separate companies, what the ceo said about the move and a look at how others have prerformed after breaking up. we want to hear from you reach out to the show on twitter or facebook. the closing bell is back after the break. we saved hundreds

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bell here are the individual winners ton dow. verizon up over 2% home depot up 1.7. some of those defensive sectors doing well today united technology sinking after splitting into three independent companies. this is down nearly 5% and the other potential breakups >> yeah. it is the worst performer in the dow today. it is down about 5%. so off the lows it said it would split up the otis into three stand alone companies. it will be a tax free process occurring one time costs it will be the aerospace business, discussed the decision earlier today. take a listen. >> just because it's the right thing to do. >> i mean look, we can go back

and look at any one point and say the commercial business has outperformed the aerobusiness. we always said balance works at utc. i can tell you as i have spoken to all of the investors there is almost unanimity they would perform better as separate focused businesses >> the move was not unexpected coming after a portfolio review. you have investors in stock spinning off into a stand alone stock. investors favor pure play companies over bigger more diversity iffed factors. they have nicknamed the urge to demerge. still you take a look at the stock. it is down today

investors are digesting all of the details here i also think some of this u.s./china trade late zest also playing out here. what about the sort of immediate kbrum term and longer term for the list of other sort of industrials that have done this sort of process? it makes sense when you think about it >> it is interesting because as this has been explained to me we see this in cycles like long multi-decade cycles. you have companies that come together, combine and at some

point they realize they are too big. they start to spin off or divest some of the assets they come back together maybe in a recession and break apart again. i think what's really notable about this is the fact you some of the biggest heavyweights. ge has some of the specific issues going on right now. united tech breaking apart the way they are >> it is still a big industrial and one of the oldest. >> not as big. >> down 1.5. we were showing you down close to 5%. >> yeah. so we have around 45 minutes before the bell. the dow is currently up about 44 points right now the s&p is also higher just fractionally up about 2 points the nasdaq and russell are slightly lower notably missing was ceo mark zuckerberg, why he was absent and what happened at the hearing

ahead. and the ceo of vanguard join us live. we are back in a couple of minutes. you don't want to miss that.

well off the lows.

earlier in the day the s & p 500 is up fractionally and the nasdaq is also up. the composite is down slightly. let's talk about the market moves. joining us in an exclusive interview along with our own bob. over to you. >> we are ton vanguard trade 22 traders trade north of $2 billion every single day. great privilege to be here runs the whole operation >> it has ban really tough october and november what do you see? tell us what kind of flows you're seeing. is anything unusual going on in

your mind? >> you're seeing the returnover volatility in the market they have taken risks. it's not so much i think we are about half of what they were why are people not putting as much money into the market are the evaluations too high what's the issue >> a little bit of all of the above. >> we started the year with very high evaluations and went up from there

>> some people came off. we were seeing ours off about 40%. people are still -- it is still way positive we are seeing 200 billion in flows so far this year >> we just had a preview of it today. tell me what you see happening in the next year in the markets. one of the things you emphasized, i have seen your comments, expect lower returns for the next several years what is the thought process? >> it is really a math equation. when you start off with higher evaluations you're just going to get lower returns going forward. >> we are starting -- well, the markets have come down a bit you're not simply dealing with high evaluations so if you start add a high point it's tough to imagine a lot going forward unless you have serious economic growth and companies can do extremely well.

we have already had a fiscal stimulus unless you think for some reason and companies will do a lot better so tariff fears will go away they will do very well markets can take off the consensus would be expect less on the returns. i'll tell you, you expect less what do you do you save more. >> yeah. >> it will be an issue >> when you say expect less you're expecting 4%? 5% >> we would expect to see a balance. you're looking at about 5% for a balanced portfolio that's way off of people with 8 to 10% >> i have to ask you about the fee wars it's like watching a baseball game

you lowered the minimum on several dozen index funds. we are down to 4 basis points. fidelity launched a zero feet products >> we are glad the marketplace is finally embracing it. if we can get lower costs it is more of your returns we return that to them we get more of the return of can you get closer we are owned by our clients. when we do well we give back to the clients. we think we can go lower and lorer. i mentioned people are embracing

it they are embracing it partially. people are lowering costs. over the past five years they have lowered costs say 308 times. unfortunately they are not lowering costs in their other funds. >> thanks for allowing us on your floor it is something very few people ever see we'll stay here and watch the close and watch vanguard >> yeah. >> thanks for coming >> thank you for having us here today. >> all right >> guys. >> closing bell as well for the close. thank you very much. again, bob and tim as far the close it is just 34 minutes away we are higher as we approach the

close. the nasdaq just slightly lower coming up white house economic adviser weighing in on gm's restructuring moves. holiday season lay jufs from gm, rude, rude very disappointing >> up next we'll discuss whether gm sales are part of a broader u.s. economic slowdown >> it has been two years since alaska ak airlines bought. we'll speak exclusively about blast changed and how unngplgi oil prices are impacting business

>> there is a sector performance. you tileties and staples top the list health care also there towards the top and energy industrials are towards the bottom now sue has a news update for us

>> here is what's happening at this hour. ther eric sa may seeking has her work cut out for her democratic unionist party which props up her minority government opposes that deal. >> what the government has done in looking at this deal is ensure that the deal that we deliver is not only on the vote and products peoples jobs but crucially recognizes the specific circumstances of northern ireland >> jack ma has been a member since the 1980s. the state backed peoples daily releasing a list of people that they wish to honor for their contributions. ma was among the names mentioned. call it not pupally love but puppy diplomacy. the south korean president's office releasing from a pair of white dogs from north korea.

he gave the dogs in september. >> clearly you chose this story for wilfred. >> i was just thinking she should have taken some puppies with her >> i think she should have i absolutely >> i and -- >> brexit would be sold. >> it couldn't hurt. >> it could not hurt you could call one of the puppies brexit >> you could >> brexit. >> i think we have said it enough >> i'm hoping next year we won't have to say that word again. thank you very much. i'll see you next hour >> i'll see you next hour. we have about 28 minutes to go into today's session. we are currently higher. dow is up right now. let's look at the biggest movers of the day with bertha is at the nasdaq seema, let's kick it over to

you. >> names like walgreens and home depot moving to the upside seeing shares of apple and united technologies. there is still a defensive tone in the market. the utilities quietly moving higher over the last severen days adding a 2019 year high health care is higher and retail is making a come back like target and l brands all moving to the upside after a bad week last week. we'll see if that trend continues. still about 7% trading in correction territory >> thanks very much for that let's send it to bertha. >> it is interesting today because we are watching the large cap nasdaq outperform the overall nasdaq and russell 2000. we are talking about fraction gnat changing at best today. among the answers talked about walgreens and pharmacy names up

today as trurch administration proposes giving pharmacy managers more lee way it is really sort of backing them on that microsoft getting that much closer as far as the market cap to apple apple though among the drag. a lot of that has to do with china and other issues in terms of subsidies in tariffs. facebook lower on regulatory concerns and tes la getting a little bit of collateral damage as president trump talks about taking electric car subsidies away it could impact esla back to you. >> thank you >> shares of gm are moving lower

after the auto maker announced plans to halt production at plants in the u.s. and dan da here is what he had to say when asked whether layoffs would impact the overall economy >> let's not forget a couple of weeks ago on this very point we had 250,000 new jobs which was a block buster number. it was 3.7% unemployment rate. those are very spif fi numbers so again, holiday season layoff

look, the economy and job creation have been very strong in rural areas in good producing industries it is a blip on that screen. we have seen hundreds of thousands of jobs created in that space and even with the interest rate overhang i don't see that slowing down. there are a lotover investment opportunities. month after month we see numbers that continue to surprise. i don't see that >> what about your view on this? could it be gm being sensible and moving ahead of a potential slowdown >> i think it's a lot of things effecting everything that effected gm to changing with the flu nafta and the facts that the

products, smaller cars aren't selling and they are very expensive to make here in the u.s. i think we agree with larry that it will be washed out in the national data. to think of what it will do to some place which at one point was such an important part of gm that a strike could take down all of gm by just one striking plant. what a change from the 1990s >> brian, this has definitely added more focus on auto sales and the fact they have been declining. i looked back and we were hitting record numbers is this a reflection that it could be a potentially slowing economy or is it really more of a reflection we already saw it >> i think you're right. it's the comparison numbers here we had knockout years here what gm doing here really doesn't have to be a read on a slowing economy. it is a gm move.

they are in an industry that is changing fundamentally they are trying to adapt to that it doesn't necessarily reflect the broader economy. it is a gm specific thing. >> it will be one of the many companies watching the g20 and side meetings. >> the effects of tariffs alone, they small it's the unintended consequences it has a real price to it. the clollateral damage, the second largest in the world, it could actually over time end up in recession it does worry me. they released an article today

arguing even if a pause button is hit it really will only be a pause because the political situation between the u.s. and china is so that we can't come to a deal that will really mean something to both countries that will be a good compromise for both countries it is something to keep in mind is that it means continued uncertainty going forward. it is a lack of investment as good as this economy is we are not seeing strong investment numbers. they flat lined in the last quarter. it is not spectacular right now. we should be seeing stronger investment numbers as things wash out and we have momentum going we are slowing. we form a very strong economy. in the 90s part of the reason that the challenger numbers is because most layoffs occur before christmas

>> i don't know if i buy this argument yes there are issues globally. look, if you take care of trade issue and you can disagree with how likely it is president trump can take care of trade if the fed can provide management. >> we have record corporate debt in high yield with a lot of retail buyers in it. by the end of this year we'll see a doubling of short term interest rates even though we are at low interest rate levels it's one of the reasons the fed is worried about shooting and becoming more data dependent they are concerned at how quickly that happened. how quickly the responsed interest rates have been i think there are legitimate out

there. want it to go on as long as possible >> definitely a discussion we'll continue to have here. thank you far lively debate. with 20 minutes before the bell the dow is up about 80 points session highs. the s&p is also higher it is right near session highs as well up about 6 points. up next international politicians outraged after mark zuckerberg skips a u.k. hearing on fake news we have the latest >> plus sales force earnings due out after the bell keep it here closing bell back in a couple.

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cloks ox hilt levels not seen since 1972 today. mark zuckerberg declining to looking into fake news and disinformation cnbc has a details for us. >> facebook ceo was attacked for not appearing before the grand me hearing tweeting nine countries 447 million people represented one question, where is mark zuckerberg his fill-in focused on the inevitableregulation >> the lawmakers grilled

facebook and grilled for everything from the spread of fake news and hate speech to privacy violations and even facebook's inflated video metrics. a canadian representative accused of corporate fraud and a massive scale. he suggested breaking the company up. we have seen a big jump up on the side which applies to the u.k. british lawmakers are continuing on a much stronger than we have seen perhaps either in the eu or seen it die down on the u.s.

>> i think we have seen that the u.k. lawmakers want to be taking the lead they are asking the tough questions. i think we will see more widespread scrutiny both in europe and the u.k. a.s well as here in the u.s. >> why was mark zuckerberg not there? >> he has declined a number of invitations. they have been sending to testify. look, i'm sure he would say he is fixing these problems

it doesn't look good when you have representatives saying why isn't he here? do you have any excuse why he isn't here so i think he sort of gets slammed for it >> thank you very much for that. i'm not surprised he is not there. these hearings but they are not as high profile as they are in the u.s. i don't think it's a surprise. >> i think it's a company and we have had many experts in recent weeks that pointed this out which lost control of the narrative here >> it doesn't help with them >> yeah. >> putting it in perspective

>> it doesn't surprise me. >> all right we are about 11 minutes until the closing bell 105 points we have this up 8 points nasdaq just turned positive. when we come back this airline stock is soaring we reveal the mystery mover next let's get started. show of hands. who wants customizable options chains? ones that make it fast and easy to analyze and take action? how about some of the lowest options fees? are you raising your hand? good then it's time for power e*trade the platform, price and service that gives you the edge you need. alright one quick game of rock, paper, scissors. 1, 2, 3, go. e*trade. the original place to invest online.

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...well almost anything. leave no room behind with xfi pods. simple. easy. awesome. click or visit a retail store today. we have a news alert on gm >> good afternoon to you hours after the president threatened to pull gm subsidies the company is issues a statement to u.s. manufacturing. we want to share that with you if company said gm is committed to man taning a strong in the united states operations since 2009 it supports our about it to invest and position the company for long-term success and maintainand grow american you

b jobs it is such as autonomous vehicle. we appreciate the action this administration has taken to improve the overall competitiveness of u.s. manufacturing. there you have it. on the commit to u.s. manufacturing. this has ban huge story of the day. >> thanks very much. it was gm. we have another news alert eric has that for us >> that's right. just a few minutes ago we saw an announcement describing a new partnership between the casino on ralt operator and the league. this is the third. if rs th first they did the nba it is all about sports betting

becoming legalized this way the league gets an official partner they have resort properties m gm can show they are the leader and people will want to bet with them baz they have official data. they are paying for official data leagues so people can trust the numbers are the most a accurate back to you. >> okay. great stuff. thanks very much for that. let's check in on individual market moves today tesla falling after vehicle sales in china plunged 70% compared the a year ago. a person for company says this is widely naccurate.

so finishing the month up about 344 not too bad in terms of year to date perm form mans >> yes our mystery mover we told you about earlier, spirit airlines is the one i'm looking at today, it's soaring for the fourth quarter some are trading higher today. it will be something we talk more about coming up later on the show we'll talk more about this very topic exclusively with brad tilden he will join us here at post 9

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nearly half a percent. s&p down about three tenths. nasdaq just a little higher. s&p paints that picture for your in terms of sector performance real estate towards the top and bottom sfr industrials, energy. i want to show you the u.s. dollar as well not that much optimism to get that >> how is that >> always going mention that >> what are you maintaining that >> take a look significant weakness there within technology apple failed to trade in positive territory yes. major reversal

still pockets ofweakness. >> alaska airlines coming up next on the closing bell we are higher by 110 points. near session highs back to you finishing up about 24748

the s&p also endsing the day higher up 8 almost 9 points at 2682 so really saying something at the lows this session today the dow is down almost 225 points the nasdaq ending just about flat, 7082 health care consumer staples leading the gains where as it was materials and energy stocks that were the biggest losers shares of alaska airlines soaring today at the investor day. see the shares and finish the day up almost 11%. we have brad tilden joining us in a cnbc exclusive. that is coming up in a short while. leading the dow.

pg and e was the leader. joining us now to talk about the market day it is from point view wealth management. we'll start with mike here >> this finl push i think made it look like more of a deciding positive day i would say the market held yesterday's very strong bounce it is probably a net win the market had excuses to sell off. you had the kind of vague to negative messages on trade and the fed. i think we are hanging in there. the backdrop to me was a plausible trading low for a little while it bent but didn't break that's the environment we are in >> do you feel an urge to sell

or buy it? it kind of comes there most of all. >> so many sectors have sold off so violently tech is on sale. energy is on sale. you seen the rebound in retailers today. retailers have sold off. i think that's lot of value to be had out there >> are there specific stocks you're looking at? >> yes some of the larger more diversified global players it can weather volatility. that's where i would be looking right now. >> in terms of the key factors there's been sort of eye of the storm type moments of everything rolling in at once, tech, trade, interest rates we get a big focus on two of those. which do you think is most important? >> i think longer term the fed is more important for setting the course in terms of how this

sort of cycle unfolds. i do think though the headline risk or maybe the headline benefit is greater it is more spring loaded >> i think expectations are very low right now. nobody thinks of tangible value will come out. it will be able impressionistic view of whether there's sort of a cease fire the one thing i would dial it back another level is to say it's interesting to me that it has turned from year end rally, earnings are great seasonals are in our favor to we really need help from the fed or trade. it tells you where we are at it means you can get relief from a variety of different directions >> do you agree? >> yeah. i think mike is spoton

those are the two headline factors that will drive the markets into year end. >> we can pour over this all we like it is hard to tell john earlier is relatively down. what was your take optimistic >> i think he sought to reopen for some kind of a deal. i think he was out there trying to say nothing is determined right now. the president is not going into this meeting with some kind of preset plan to punish china further. on a net basis though he was not promising anything i honestly think the market thinks it needs that, some kind of a progress on trade more than it probably needs that >> what about the fundamental

economy when it comes to trade clearly the data is pretty good. is he there suggesting once the market gets to another couple of earnings it doesn't matter so much >> it depends where the tariffs are going to go. certain companies like gm, they pass their price to go the then consumer at the end of the day they have to report the shareholders and they will try to cut costs where they can >> i'm glad you brought up gm. we'll stick with that. president trump threatened to cut. you can see the shares down 2.5% today. the president tweeting he was disappointed with the decision to close plants. he wrote i am here to protect american workers and gm's china and mexico will not pay off.

they said many of the u.s. workers will have the opportunity to shift to other gm plants to support growth in trucks, cross overs and suvs clearly it will be a war of words which will continue. do you think it is a sensible forward looking move by gm or is it going to come back to bite? can the president actually really act and hurt them >> you know, i certainly could i don't know that really there's a tremendous amount of action that's behind, you know, these threats. why wouldn't the president express pleasure with plant closures i do think there's not necessarily -- i don't think the market selling off a little bit on gm was telling you it's going to be this kind of frontal assault on gm's business i don't think it is comfortable

but we are past that we have been doing that for two years now. i think it is fully aware. one of the things i was struck by is that before gm announced these moves yesterday morning she had already spoken in a prime minister of canada clearly they knew it was going to be some kind of blow back from this. >> do you think it could be more bloke below back here? i think about harly. we sort of saw a similar play book play out. it is a company struggling with its own specific issues. if you look at the past month it is up 15%. >> i hope not. you want the president to stay out of corporate america as much as he can. i think with rising interest rates that's the bigger issue. rising interest rates is forcing out the marginal buyer of a car because they can't -- it's more expensive to borrow money to buy

a car. i think it's a bigger issue here and part of the reason it is takes cost cutting is they can increase pricing and they are hiding behind tariffs. >> what is it whether thaw can be a front runner? >> certainly it has been such a prolonged cycle that unlike services you don't need more cars, you know, just because the economy is still good and you don't have a job we are off the peak. does it slide a lot or are we at a plateau point? the reason is because peecople e a frad it is in conditions for the future >> it will be ubering and lifting around >> we have sales earnings out.

julia has that >> sales force on the top and bottom line. revenues coming in at 3.39 billion versus 3.7 billion estimated. you can see the stock is trading lower. it is down about 3%. that is because of the guidance. it is coming in lighter than expected it is between 54 and 55 cents adjusted per share wall street had been 55 cents per share. it is despite the fact that the 2020 revenue guidance asq4

revenue guidance back over to you >> mark benioff, that will be tonight mad money at 6:00 p.m. not tomorrow, tonight at 6:00 p.m. how many times have we heard beat, beat >> shares are down why >> probably because of the guidance >> there seems to be moderation of orders of demand across enterprise or the expectations got too high i think we had such amazing rates that the estimates were a bit high >> are ceos lowering guidance to sort of -- not kitchen sink. there are so many macro factors out there

it seems to me it is more than we have seen with some of the more enterprise companies is that wlaen you see the guidance weekend maybe others aren't spending as mump money they are not putting as mump because they are concerned about the future is that the read here? >> i think it is quite strong. >> let's see what happens during the call it is a question of tech in general we valuation ahead of where the stock is even though it is off two months it is trading eight times priced the sales. you have 35 analysts covering the sales. you have a very high bar to cover. this was the last of the growth story stocks it is much like

they did where they gave great guidance going forward i would -- it comes out. >> let's talk about other tech companies. apple has since recovered. it has fallen almost 14% to hit 1 trillion in market could potential tariffs open apple's route and microsoft might continue to steadily hold onto its ground in a way that none of the other big names have >> yeah. the fact they are talking about how close they are is all about it is down naturally apple stock was not that much. you're down less than a quarter of a percent it tells me that a lot of that anxiety about the trade impact was in the stock already the stock is down more than 25%

since the september high which is an amazing downside velocity. i think it would be a negative the question is a lot of that already priced in. >> is a lot of that already priced in? >> we'll see apple's margins are under pressure they are lowering pricing on iphones. if they have to increase their cost it's not a good thing we'll see. >> and it used to be a sort of cheaper version of some of these software growth companies. it's not that cheap now. >> no. >> it does have the more sticky revenue growth that isn't so linked to sales like apple >> right it has a very steady business model. i think if there's a risk in microsoft of mid-20s it is that people are too certain that it is an easy deal. they going to make numbers diversified enough it is kind of what we thought about am and amazon at the high.

that kind of sentiment can be a negative if people have reason to question it no i think the market is paying up for stability and quality in terms of balance sheets and business microsoft fits that. >> when you see the stocks fill up something like 25% year to date versus that -- >> yeah. i totally agree. i think it's a total relative value. microsoft has held the ground. the relative value of microsoft versus the other stocks is in the as compelling. would i be surprised if you see managers taking money off the table and going out to buy google, facebook, apple? i think it's quite attractive right now. >> you're talking about buying things that are on sale. within tech what's on sale >> it is quite controversial but i like ibm no big tech stock that's more flushed out than ibm

you get a 4.5 to 5% dividend but they still generate $12 billion in free cash flow per year they will pay off the deal quite quickly. i don't see it changing any time soon i think a real washout tech name is ibm >> all right thank you for joining us up next trade fears have been weighing on stocks this month. just got back from asia and up next she'll update us on the latest thoughts of investors there. and later, find out how falling oil prices are impacting the airline industry's bottom line we speak exclusively to o ceof alaska airlines. xfinity mobile is a new wireless network

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g20. china's ambassador telling that there will be dire consequences if this trade dispute ends up in economic separation between china and the u.s. he also said he wants to see a negotiated settlement to the trade debate this appears to be a response to president trump's latest tariff threats. today tried to talk that down saying that he does believe a deal is possible but only if it is only the u.s.'s terms >> it is really just a fraction of our economy i'm not suggesting that there aren't winners or losers it is a complicated game on the other hand i think we are in far better shape to weather this than the chinese are.

>> the agenda for the dinner will include discussion of forc forced technology transfer and over in china. they said if it doesn't go well and any hope of a deal falls apart then china should take president trump at his word that he will move forward >> we'll keep talking about this thank you. what's the broader impact on the u.s. market? she just got back from asia. great to speak with you today. >> thanks for having me. >> what was the mood like? what was it like these days? >> a couple of interesting take aways. i spent todays in hong kong and two days in singapore. because individual investors tend to be a bit more trading

oriented and short term in nature there were a lotov of questions on the technology sector and faang stocks. when we discussed the downgrade of the technology sector there was a lot of what we were seeing then and what likelihood of putting a weight back on that sector there was also a lot of interest which is one of our messages it doesn't stend to be something they focus a lot on. thigh are a little more open especially as correlations come down and we move out of this global liquidity environment that meant it didn't help you all that much. >> do you feel like investors there are as concerned about the u.s. china trade story as we are here we tend to focus on the individual headlines and focus on the g20 same level of focus there or not? >> no.

i think there is focus what was interesting about the many conversations i had it was actually quite blissful there was very little of any kind of partisan or political angle on the part of the asian investors it was much more on, you know, are you trying to get inside the head of the trade hard liners and the administration what is your sense of what will happen at the g20? it is interesting to hear their perspectives with members of the chinese population weighing in on what they felt it was on the chinese and where there might be offsets in terms of stimulus that could cushion some of the blow on china's economy. >> where do you think this whole kind of trade issue as it evolves fits within the whole kind of puzzle of where the

markets are right now? it seems like it is kind of being treated as a make or break issue for the economic advance where do you think it fits in? >> i think i don't know that i would call it make or break. i have been calling it a significant needle move r but also the length of the runway between now and the next recession. now, he talked about a fairly limited impact on the economy. that is a fact at this stage in the game if we end up going to the full amount percentage wise on the entire sum of imports that we bring in from china you're looking at over a percentage point where it slows back into the two 2 to 2.5 range that's a pretty big hit what that hit does not

incorporate of course is the ripple effects through the confidence channels or inflationary channels. i think it is more meaningful than the impact we have had to suffer at this point >> thank you for joining us today. >> thanks. >> still to come, tesla shares were lower on a report that sales sank 70% last month. companies disputed that. coming up we'll discuss how much the trade war is to blame for troubles in the auto industry more broadly >> turning more cautious we'll explain why it cldou end up being a good thing for the market gary, gary, gary... i am proud of you, my man. making simple, smart cash back choices... with quicksilver from capital one. you're earning unlimited 1.5% cash back on every purchase, everywhere. like on that new laptop. quicksilver keeps things simple, gary. and smart, like you! and i like that. i guess i am pretty smart.

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because of their first accident. liberty mutual insurance. liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ welcome back to the closing bell mike santoli has a chart >> i do have another chart i guess on a net basis it is probably a positive that investors have become more positive this chart plots data within the consumer they also ask do you think stock prices will be higher or lower until next 12 months this is put together by the folks and the red chart here is folks that think it will be lower in a year. the blue is those that say it will be higher in a year the stock market got caught in

half this is 2011 you can see the spikes are pretty dramatic places where you want to be in january the market raised to a new high people were overexcited. this is the second correction. this is the latest >> sheer what disappoints me tell me if i'm reading this wrong. things take a turn based on this turn it doesn't really mean people have acted on it before

or after unfortunately it is true people get too certain and it doesn't necessarily mean it's a turning point at all >> right >> but january was quite a big sales signal >> it is cautious. it is not outright skeptical or pessimistic. >> let's take a look at how we finish the day on wall street. the dow, we are near the session highs. s&p up nasdaq falling into or climbing into positive territory towards the end of the session the russell was lower, down 0.9% time far cnbc news update. >> hello everybody here is what's happening at this hour opening arguments in the trial of three chicago plifrs accused of trying to cover up the fatal shooting of mcdonald in 2014

the prosecution says the one current and two former officers violated the public's trust by lying in their police reports. a southern california businessman upset over the devastation to paradise, california by the deadly wild fire now plans to give $1,000 each to students and staff members from the local high school bob wilson will hand out checks totaling $1.1 million to 980 students and 105 teachers and staff members. tiger woods holding a news conference in the bahamas in a tournament that he hosts he talks about how things have changed now that he is feeling his age. >> as an older athlete it is just part of the deal. i will just push through it. >> he looks pretty darn good

>> back downtown to you. >> thank you very much for that. now, alaska airlines shares have been flying high and outperforming. up next the ceo tells us how prices are impacting his company. and the trade war between the u.s. and china has reportedly taken a toll on te tesla's sales. what it means coming up. looked at chart patterns. i've even built my own historic trading model. and you're still not sure if you want to make the trade? exactly. sounds like a case of analysis paralysis. is there a cure? td ameritrade's trade desk. they can help gut check your strategies and answer all your toughest questions. sounds perfect. see, your stress level was here and i got you down to here, i've done my job. call for a strategy gut check with td ameritrade. ♪

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boosted the fourth quarter r revenue guidance stock up 15% for the month so far. joins us now is brad tilden. thanks for joining us. >> pleasure. >> let's talk about your guide, the revenue per available seat mile you're not the only one to do that spirit did as well >> we honestly sort of update. conditions have been pretty good for us on the west coast we updated rev flenue guidance. that's what we do. >> what analysts have been

looking about is two years is fully integrated i guess when it took place you are relatively higher margin airline. people feared it w0u8d impact the bottom line accordingly. talk us through where we are with integration and what it will do. >> yeah. i think the big point from investor day today we are two years in. a couple of weeks it will be two years. we are through in an airline there are l hundredsovhundreds of computer systems. all of that stuff we are through with now now it's time. there are two focuses. one is on our culture. we feel like the service has been known for really comes from a strong culture and a small company feel the other thing we are focused on is realizing that the benefits and realizing that other revenue initiatives. >> i have to ask this other follow-up question

i have not flown either of these but the sizes of the seats and economy, is that one of reasons the margin was lower, slightly more space and is that something you'll take away >> we are making some modest adjustments to the cabins. it is three or four seats. it's about getting we'll have a first class section, a premium class section. alaska as it goes has fairly generous seat proportions. it is especially true in our first class cabin. >> and i think we had richard on about this time last year. he came on and said the absorption by alaska airlines that it would be a foolish move. is that past us? >> well, you know, people will say what they are going to say i think what is true is one brand is better than two you can run multiple brands.

in the airlines business it is clear one brand is better than two. we thohad to choose. honestly, i respect everybody for having their views the alaska brand has a lot of equity we feel like we made the right choice >> you raised guidance does it suggest that competitiveness in terms of, you know, fairs and all of the rest of it has eased up a little bit? >> i think what's really going on, integration in the airline business are hard. we are a small airline we still have 22 or 23,000 people what we are -- i think what is most indicative of we are getting back to basics, the things that we do, running an airline. i think markets are settling down or people are settling down, operations are settling down basically the message we had is we are very optimist ig. >> it is more scope for

consolidation. would it be something you would run away from? >> you know, we obviously wouldn't answer that question. the big airlines are pretty similar in size today. as for alaska we are similar with the set up. >> crude oil has come off pretty dramatically >> we have a sort of mentality we can control a lot of people know a lot more about fuel prices than we do we do buy a lot of gas it effects us a lot. we hedge and we have a very fuel efficient fleet. we have great technology if we do everything else that is within our control well we sort of think it will work out for us over time. >> there has been decent growth in the sort of private airlines taking offer from a lesser, smaller airports, people pay a subscription and they can use the smaller sort of prop planes particularly on the west coast

where you guys have a big presence is that a major threat for you >> i don't think it's a big threat today 5, 10, 15, 20 years, who is to say? i think it is a different market it doesn't have an impact on our business or major airlines you have to keep your eye out for everything >> okay. >> we'll see what happens down the road >> thanks very much. brad tilden. sales fell as trade tensions between the u.s. and china continue that was disputed and denied by the company. we'll discuss that coming up

a new report saying sales fell drastically it came out earlier today. tesla sold 211 cars, a decrease from a year ago. tesla disputes that number saying these figures are off bay significant margin >> the reported sales drop came months after beijing increased tariffs on autos 40% joining us now to discuss more on the impact and what they are having on the auto industry is john mcilroy thanks for joining us today. >> thanks for having me. >> what has the impact been so

far? >> of these tariffs in china >> yeah. >> you can see it in the numbers that are claiming that tesla sales fell off we flow that the chinese market is slowing down. ford and general motors have reported a decline in sales there. part of it is the impact of tariffs being exported to china which have impacted mercedes benz and bmw >> what about the likelihood in the medium to long term? the companies have to manufacture the cars that are sold in their own country themselves is that likely to be the long-term effect or do you think a resolution is more likely? >> i think we are going to go back to the previous situation the auto industry it doesn't make sense to only build cars in

every market where you sell them you should make them there for example in the case of mercedes benz making suvs in the united states they export these all over the world if they were to make them in china you have to duplicate the tooling. if there's enough to justify that investment you're just driving up your cost it would leave an industry inefficient compared to the way it has been running. >> we are talking about the u.s. and china. how likely is it we could see auto tariffs on imparts from the european union >> that is a very good question. we know that the ceos are going to be at the white house this week i'm sure they will be down there begging president trump not to slap on import tariff on them. the u.s. has a 2.5 import tariff coming in from any where around

the world. the trump administration, that's not equality and it will want to see something resolved there i think it would be a negotiating tactic threatening to increase on european made vehicles and what the administration has talked about is looking for all trade tariffs to go away at least when it comes to automobiles it's hard to say how this is going to be resolved it will be very difficult for the eu to determine that it's just going to drop tariffs on cars we could be facing a 10% tariff on european made cars which is five times what they are paying right now. >> i want to ask your opinion whether you think consumers in the u.s. and around the rest of the world are very conscious of where the car they are buying has been built and what the brand comes from is and bl it shifted in the last year or two with these trade disputes or do

people look at quality and price and nothing else >> people don't even know what kind of engine is under the hood so they clearly have no clue whatsoever where their vehicle was made the vast majority of consumers in the united states really don't care you want a great car at a good price that will be very reliable for them look, that he decided years and years ago when honda became the first to make cars in america at least in the modern era and there was a big question whether or not americans would buy hondas man fact cluufactured ine united states. so many others came into the american market. at the end of the day except in certain regions where that's lotover union representation americans don't care where their cars are made. >> before we let you go we need to get your thoughts in terms of plant closures and lay offs at that company yesterday and the

president's response to them, talks of pulling subsidies etcetera >> a lot going on just in that question alone >> they have said they will no longer have product allocation they didn't come out and say we are closing these plants down. to me that's sort of an open invitation to say come on in let's negotiate how we'll deep keep these plants open i'm not completely convinced they are going to close and go away >> interesting >> and as far as the president wanting to yank subsidies i wouldn't want to get into an argument with the president of the united states yet. it will be difficult to see how he could do this these subsidies were enacted by congress it would be highly unusual to see congress go in and site one single company as no longer being eligible

i have to add too, gm is about to hit the cap on those. they will expire anyway for general motors >> thank you for joining us today. great to get your incites. coming up shares of under armour falling as kevin plank, why he would rheatr lead than be an athlete himself don't go any where or even trouble with recall., thankfully, the breakthrough in prevagen helps your brain and actually improves memory. the secret is an ingredient originally discovered... in jellyfish. in clinical trials, prevagen has been shown to improve short-term memory. prevagen. healthier brain. better life. is it because so many go after it the same way, chasing after short-term returns? instead if getting caught up with the crowd, the investment managers at pgim take a long term view.

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welcome become under armour he ceo speaking at the club of washington today and asked if he would rather be an athlete or ceo. >> i'd take ceo every day of the week maybe not every day of the week. yeah, i don't know -- that's

probably a better question than i gave it credit for >> thank you. >> i like sports but you still get hit in sports. they still write about it afterwards afterwards. but you rarely have four games a year with earnings calls and all the work is done which before. >> you can't claim to be a true sportsman and want to be anything other than a top athlete. >> he was a college football player. >> which reiterates my point surely the ultimate dream was to become the top of your sport and captain your country. >> through. >> to the world cup final and lift the trophy. >> but i'd rather have a career as long as kevin plank or become a billionaire the way he. >> he could still do it but ten years later. >> in theory, i get it but i think from his perspective it would seem to denigrate what he was doing and the company. >> listen, i get that, just say that, the ultimate dream. >> ask 0-year-old kevin plank.

let's hope for a different answer. >> maybe he would have an even better brand as well if he had played longer. >> i don't know, my worst grade in high schooling with gym class. but his shares are up 51% to date i can see why he goes with the company this week. >> anyway, i'd still want to be a soccer player, no doubt. >> shocker >> meantime shares of salesforce trading higher -- gosh higher we were lower on what was reported initially as lower guidance. we went down 2% after hours. but much more focus now on the guidance not being so bad. and eps beats up 5.2%. up next a snippet from jim cramer's interview with the ceo. >> and be sure to tune in to squawk on the the street andy jassy will join in a cnbc exclusive interview at 9:00 a.m.

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quarterly loss the stock up 8.6%. and shares of salesforce rallying after better than expected earnings. ceo mark benioff on "mad money" with jim cramer. here is what he had to say about the quarter. >> the third quarter was phenomenal you see we are giving phenomenal guidance for the fourth quarter. certainly we are praying and hoping to improve on that by the way. and now we can see a strong fiscal year ahead in year 20 as well i don't think the company has been stronger or in a better position the reason why is every company we with is going through a digital transformation and eefr digital transformation, jim begins and ends with the customer. >> be sure to catch more of the interview on "mad money" tonight at 6:00 p.m. eastern. >> mike, i guess the key thing, we said it earlier in the wrong direction but the guide sins the

key thing this quarter and the guidance up strong. >> the guidance tightened, so maybe there was a mixed impression at first. but nothing is more certain than mark bon yoffe is bullish and optimistic about the prospect. and usually the company delivers on that. and mostly you measure the company by how fast the top line is growing and what the momentum is for revenues and that holds with the stock down almost 24% in two months. >> the digital transformation across sectors and industries has been in focus with tech stocks until the turn lower we saw in recent weeksbecause of valuations, trade fierears et cetera. that was the argument there for secular growth, the transformation. >> and now everybody is revisiting how much is okay is to pay for the secular growth. it hasn't change the picture people have been able to more than a decade own salesforce by

saying they are a good solution and a small part of a huge addressable market why wouldn't it grow fast for a long period of time. i think that's right, morgan but it makes it hard to know when the fang viek stocks will finally reach a level of washed out. because they are not looking cheap. it's just a matter when the market comes back around to preferring that story. >> on that note, azmodan web services ceo tomorrow. that's an interview on squawk on the street. >> and "squawk alley.." >> throughout the three hours rare to hear from them back to the broader markets, clearly it wasn't the tech companies. it was the defensive sectors, staples, real estate, health care, hue tilts. did well all the focus tomorrow on chairman powell. >> if the market held tactic overall, the big performing groups on monday didn't really give back gains today. that's a net positive. i think the market was going to

wait and see on powell's message. looking still for dovish signs, may or may not get them. >> small caps still underperforming. >> again, that's another risk appetite measure it's not necessarily domestic versus foreign it's more or less risk on a given day. >> leaving it there, out of time thanks, morgan, for joining us "fast money" begins now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site over looking times square. the traders are pete najarian. tim seymour, brian kelly and guy adami. tonight the bottle for the throne is on microsoft a few billion away from taking over the apple top spot and the answer might surprise you. the man calling the november selloff is back. mark yusko is back why he thinks it's getting where is before better the seems like