tv Mad Money CNBC November 30, 2018 6:00pm-7:00pm EST
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mike you know the bank stocks listen everybody wants to defend them i don't see any reason to own them you keep selling rallies. and citi bank is the one in the near term to go short. >> looks like the time is expired. catch usack bhere next friday at 5:30. don't go anywhere. "m "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always more money to make and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica my job is not just to entertain but to teach you so call me at 1-800-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. the nasdaq is falling 4.5%
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sometimes buyers like to take their lives in their hands because that's what they're doing if they bought at the high today. what do you call it when someone buys going into a g-20 summit? a controversial one. i think they're being pretty optimistic maybe the president makes a deal in which case the stock market will roar or people at the bell, it will pay off for them more likely i think it will tell us the u.s. will still raise tariffs 25% with china come january. however i feel about trump's trade policy, personally i get where he's coming from even if i don't always agree with the execution. the market has very definite opinions about this stuff. here's what market participants typically think. historically stocks have not reacted well to tariffs. they're bad for the economy in the short term, so i think betting on stocks ahead of this meeting at up 200 points in the
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dow would be maybe a high risk move for now, let's just say everything else falls in importance compared to the state dinner tomorrow night between the two presidents, which is why i started with saturday. novel for our game plan. other than that, mrs. lincoln, what's our game plan for next week monday we hear from cooper software that's one of our crown princes which sells software to help businesses with everything relate to do procurement this weekend we saw crazy movements in the cloud with splunk, forces and plumware all reporting good numbers so much for the supposed slowdown of the data center in the cloud, but those good earnings probably would not have mattered if not for the remarkable news we got from
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general powell powell sees he's got inflation -- let's just say whipped -- and that's very good news for grow stocks because that means their earnings down the road will earn more in today's dollars. that's what happens when you trump in place speaking of the fed, i sure wish they would start thinking not just about the raw data interpreo about outfits like cooper, okay? which saved companies a fortune, why, by cutting back on people, the most expensive part of business and allowing their software to handle procurement that means all these software-based companies are inherently deflationary, so powell may want to listen in on cooper's conference call tuesday morning we get results from dollar general, autozone and hd supply. i like each one for different reasons. last night we spoke to dollar tree which is finally starting to fall from years ago i wondered if that positively affected the whole cohort.
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the best this week were the bargain basement operations. dollar general fits that bill. i see an upside surprise coming. of course, you'll have to deal with the chinese tariff issue, but dallas merchandise as well as the dollar tree, the trade war won't be as disruptive as you think even if tariffs go up 25% in january this has the monster buyback which scared trump for years even if they're slightly off numbers, just a little bit of slippage in numbers, lately people are keeping their cars longer and longer which means they need less spare parts it's all part of the prestige that i like to put together to take the temperatures of the economy in realtime. after the close tuesday, we hear from toll brothers we've had them on a number of times.
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this high quality home builder might tell a tale of both strength and weakness. i'm not saying the economy overall is weak, i'm saying it's weaker than it's ever been one of the reasons is the slowing housing market i'm told particularly from the coast, we had, and i thought they wove a good story but this market has soured on anything with a higher price point. thi you know it snowed down here more than 50 points from their highs? a couple weeks ago i took my daughter to lunch at the gallery meat packing district rk, and io to tell you, spectacular lululemon's stock has fallen in sync with the rebellion. i'm mindful of how hard it is on
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retailers right now that people think the economy shifting to lower gear the other year i talked about companies reinventing themselves and that's certainly the case with kroger, the world's largest supermarket chain, which folds on thursday. while i think certainly kroger can spin a good yarn about recovering the stores in the neighborhood i want to know about his quiz cal acquisition, quiz cal meaning, i don't know, i'm kind of nervous about it -- of a softer number that works with mainstreams, not to mention exposure to china and apple. being an apple supplier is a little like being in the supply club the one rule about the apple supply club is you don't talk about the apple supply club. we also get results from one of
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the hottest retailers around right now that isn't saying much, r are there? ulta's cosmetics business has been roar iing. giving the fed justification, though, with this number -- giving the justification that it needs for ways in which to see how the radar is packed in the once red hot commodity can get the soft landing it so sorely deserves vt mark in illinois, mark >> caller: hi, jim >> hey, mark what's up? >> caller: so on november 9 it
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was made public that the companies plan to pose a ban on e-cigarettes the 60% decrease would eliminate the revenues of approximately 50%. i believe a majority of menthol smokers will turn to a menthol alternative. do you believe it's time to do this >> the minimum mum is 5.8% it's not that special, and i don't recommend -- i'm not -- bernie in pennsylvania, please be bernie >> long-time watcher never miss a show. if i'm going to miss a show i tape it. also never miss squawk on the street you're fabulous getting ready
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for the day. >> i guess you're also an eagles fan. this is good news. >> no, i'm a steeler fan i'm in western pa. >> got to take this guy's call okay, go ahead, go ahead i'm just joking around >> i'm sorry, jim. second, just real quick. can't thank you enough for the country the way you come out against the fed and powell, all the rhetoric, raising rates. you saved the country. you should be the next fed chair. but jim, real quick -- >> i want to thank you and we did a lot of work here if we did play any role in trying to get the fed to not choke off the fed, then thank you. >> you singlehandedly took the lead and that was great. jim, i'm a patriot of defense stocks small and large my gbiggest is lockheed martin it's fallen in the last month.
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i can't understand why -- >> i agree with you. i think lockheed martin is a buy. raytheon has been miserable. why? the democrats took back the house and people feel the democrats are definitely going to cut back on spending, sir that's what's going on they've done it before and i've been wrong okay, here we go darrell in pennsylvania, darrell. >> mr. cramer, thank you for your infinite wisdom i currently have a position in real estate investment trust starwood property, ticker stwd i know that all are not created equal. they tend to carry a lot of debt but provide a healthy dividend with 2019 fast approaching, i would like to get your thoughts on reinvesting particularly in starwood property. >> i think it's a good idea. the stock is up nicely and it's the 8.5% yield i think you're safe. i really, really like the story.
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he is such a good guy and he's really well run. i applaud your choice. you now have next week's game plan. but remember, everything pales in comparison to what's going to happen this very weekend i'll give you a game plan to ride out the trump-jinping g-20 tape now eyes sending cash into the ether. what could it mean for investors? and wondering what it means to the overall auto industry? i'm talking to a leader in the used car business. find out what he's seeing in the sector so stay with cramer! xfinity mobile is a new wireless network
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if you want to figure out how the market will react to the g-20 meeting this weekend, or more specifically, the meeting within the meeting, you need to gain the gamers, and that's very tough to do. but if you want to get in the gamers, you have to presume something will happen. the question is what let me lay out some scenarios and the likelihoods. option one, president xi comes with a plan. because as president trump says, he wants a deal, he needs a deal china's economy is slowing and the stock market has cratered. i think he fundamentally miss understan misunderstands the deal. from xi perspective, his perception is probably that they undermined the u.s. government
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it probably won't happen, but if it does, it could give us a 10% rally. option two, the president says he'll hpull back on the tariff increase he'll be sitting at the same table with two heads of state. i give that a 10% chance, okay if we get in delay, it causes a 5% rally in the stock market option three trump says, sorry, we're going with $2 billion of chinese imports before the new year starts thought to be 350 billion. i think this is the most likely outcome, so i'm giving it a 50% chance let's hold off the market's reaction for a second. option four. trump takes it up 20% and that will go to 25% in, say, six months i give it a 25% chance the market goes down fifth, the unthinkable nuclear option a bad argentina state dinner
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25% tariffs on everything. worst outcome on the stock market, a 5% chance and we go to 10% like that. still the most probable outcome by far is that things pretty much stay the same the existing tariffs go to 25% and trump will see about imposing any new ones. so let's go back to the people trying to game for this event. how many investors will think it's a harder line than they expected how many will assume there will be immediate chinese retaliation? how many companies that resource from china are actually ready for this how many have prepared to switch but haven't done so yet? a lot of variables believe me, there are still plenty of money managers that aren't drid fready for the outc that don't have the odds in their favor. we have a model that sells most stocks if we do get this outcome and that's an ugly combination, frankly. if what i'm expecting comes to pass, then the reception stocks
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with china are a little higher you should superseding coca-cola, procter & gamble, mcdonald's all in the selloff. here you got to think 3m, emerson, united technologies, and sadly, apple which has become the political football given it is nature in both countries. this game may not be worth playing. if you're a trader, you might want to scoop up some apple if it goes down i still believe apple is a stock you should own, not trade. in the end i just want you to be ready for the most likely outcome here which means the recession would rally on monday and the industrials get absolutely slammed let's go to r.j. in virginia r.j. >> caller: hi, jim i have a question about silver
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silver has been down about 15% over the last year what's your outlook on silver for the next six to 12 months? >> i'm not a fan of silver frankly i think there are too much of the stuff, and think there's other stuff. gold has been invested in recently and it's not been good. silver, no, industrial uses and just not precious enough let's go to luca in texas, please luca >> mr. cramer, thank you for taking my call >> thank you >> caller: me and my son watch your show every night. the question is we had a lot of data breaches lately we had one this morning. it's by far the best company for security issues -- >> there is important. i thought the conference call was good i thought he did a good job. many people say brilliant quarter, congratulations the stock opened at eight and then it was clearly down four.
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many people are concerned the cash may not be as facsile as the previous ceo then you'll want to buy the stock even though it was hideous today. a huge swing of 12 points and i didn't like it all right. it's game on this weekend. here we go, everybody. i want you to queue up the recessionistas could the used car business be good for places like car auction services and the good news? the dog ate your homework? i did it for you and i think i can make you some money. so stay with cramer.
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let me take a selfie ♪ >> you know, it hasn't really bounced back here. these are good sound effects for this piece snap, the parent of snapchat this thing has been the ultimate -- the house of pain -- spiking up $29 since the day it became public in march of last year i'm glad i told you to stay away from it up there and then plummetting to $6 and change today. snapchat was supposed to be the best thing in social media and then facebook tried a new interface that didn't really go over well very well and now you regulars looking at these social media places there are some truly hideous
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numbers back in may that crushed the life out of the stock, and you can understand why snap has been a real -- but that's not what i'm worried about here. no, i'm talking about snap tonight because i'm worried about its cash generation. as we watch the public crumble, i worry if snap has enough money. when this company came public in march of 2017, there was no reason to be concerned about snap's cash balance. the company had no debt and was responsible for funding markets in the ipo that's why it had a billion dollars on the balance sheet before it decided to go public it got $2.6 billion. by the time snap reported its first dollar out of the gate, the company had $2.4 billion in cash and cash equivalents. that people would start to fret about the cash situation was unthinkable. but look what happened here. every since the ipo of snap, the
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cash wars went down 7% in the second quarter, down near 14% the first quarter. from $2.42 billion, snap's cash balance has now shrunk to 1.4 billion. you might say snap is still relatively incumbent it needs to invest in its growth fair enough. however, there is a deeper problem here look at snap's cash from operating activities, the cash they get from its core business. cash operating activities was negative 564 million snap is a big spender. that's only slightly worse than the first three quarters of last year where they were negative 555 million. it's substantially worse in the period of 2016, negative 443 million. in other words, just keeping the lights on at snapchat is costing these guys a fortune
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that's not good. when you look at the free cash flow, which is just cash from operating activities minus cash expenditures, the picture gets even worse through three-quarters of this year, snap had a negative amount of dollars which is worse than the negative dollars in 2017 and less than 569 million. snap sis investing some of the money in its growth, but most of the pain starts in the day to day costs of running the business for the moment snap is fine. remember, they're sitting on 1.4 billion. i'm not trying to alarm you, i'm looking at the longer term i think you have to think longer term when it comes to stocks it is easy that the company could find itself in a dangerous situation. granted, it has no debt. it's not as though they're looking at some kind of existential crisis however, the core business is a drain of cash, not a source of
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cash it's expected to burn another 120 million in free cash flow. not quite, however, it would be better than they did in 2017 adding it all up, the company's free cash flow would be down 780 million. if snap keeps this up, it won't be long before they use up the cash sitting on the balance sheet, and then they start to buy and sell stock which will shrink dramatically. it could end up being devastating for the existing shareholders because it would be so diluted and think about general electric they should have sold a lot of stock but they have a bad balance sheet. all of this begs a major question how is snap such a money pit simple it's all about the cloud this time it's working against them snap spends a fortune on the cloud hosting elements without them there is no snapchat and you better believe it's expensive for those hosting fees snap has hundreds of millions of
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daily active users uploading and downloading video content. someone has to pay for that. since snap is usually a free service that somebody is snap itself we've known about these costs since the very beginning i warned you about them from the time i was on appe appeal for cu hosing services. that translates into $4 billion. the company had laid out a number of stretch goals for next year, like turning a profit, accelerating the full year free cash flow. i assume that means slowing the decline in these numbers in fact, they're looking to break even next year but misstone says, quote, it's something they're trying to
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achieve, not something they might be turning something on. it points to 186 million in the first quarter and it will continue to decline next quarter, too their most mature market here in north america piqued a year ago. this makes me nervous because you have to figure those numbers will slow down as they try to approach the kind of levels we're seeing here in north america. still, snap has plenty of revenue growth but it's accelerated and 85% when they became public. you're looking at a very different business
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the. this kind of had he mind me exodus does not really inspire confidence in me the company has the three-nchl, and cto, robert murphy, control 80% of snap's voting rights. basically there is no way an activist can come in and shake things up. google offered to buy snap for 30 billion in 2016 it's now an $18.4 billion company. the rich guys running the business, don't kill lee stupid less than san gin a more than five times, you could argue that it's fairly expensive.
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until snap gifves us some reason to believe in the turnaround in nevada, richard >> caller: mr. cramer, this is richard from vegas and it is an honor to speak with you, sir >> thank you >> very quickly, i want to share something with before you i ask about the stock. >> okay. >> when i was 15 i lost my father to a drunk driver i needed a mentor, and my mother loves you and she told me to grab your book and read it i read it, and sir, words cannot put -- i would love to meet you one day but i know you're a very busy man tweeter yesterday a little bit i'm in tweeter. what do you think? >> thank you for the kind words. i'm going to have my wife listen to the show. she thinks i'm working too hard and i obviously haven't if i earned your trust. i'm sorry for your loss. twitter is a buy i think it's not as exciting as
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it used to be. i think they'll turn it around but there's not enough social media places to advertise. so i've been a fan of twitter when it gets to this $30 level that kind of took my breath away thank you. thank you for those kind words #nofilterhere. stay away from stock of snapchat a difficult way to play the auto industry. under the radar. even the government has a landlord tonight i'll tell you the name and whether it's worth owning when i turn in tonight's homework tonight's edition of the lightning round and a look back at the week that was
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the auto industry may not be in great shape gm just laid off 15,000 people as i told you, the used car space is doing very well even as the used cars got slammed like everything else in the meltdown, business is good, and there is a lot more in the used car industry than just retailers, like carmax take kar auction services, and that's with a k. their platform supports whole car finance and logistics, pretty much soup to nuts, everything related to the business of selling used vehicles it's come down from its peak in the summer but it's still doing pretty well. the company reported and it was solid. kar is spinning off its services let's take a look about this new story with jim halad he's the new ceo of kar, and mr.
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halad, welcome to "mad money." >> thank you for having me, jim. >> first give me the overview. it is not a one-stop, there are many different elements to it. i want everyone to feel comfortable with car auctions. tell us how you work >> if i could take a step back, jim, and tell you, the best way to think about our company is to think about us as the new york stock exchange to buy and sell used and damaged vehicles. we have a number of brick and mortar sites where we do physical options, then we have a number of platforms where we do online and digital options >> i was kind of shocked how much is online and digital how many people buy cars that way? >> we're in the b2b space, and as you think about that, we sell $5 million on an annual basis
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and about half of those cars are sold on an online or digital format >> who is buying all those cars? >> on what we call the whole car side, which is the straight cars that you and i drive up and down the road every day, those vehicles, they're being sold back to the franchise dealers and being sold to the used car independent dealers and going back to the consumer and on the salvage side of the business, those cars are being bought by a lot of international buyers who are rebuilders. there's dismantlers that are dismantling them for parts then there's just some of those vehicles that are being crushed for salvage. >> give me a sense of the used versus the new car i happen to have a car -- i have a 12-year-old car. i don't even think about getting rid of it because it's so well run. it's not like the old days when i got one every three years. is that the experience for everyone in the country? >> jim, you fit right in with the average. the average age of a car on the
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road today in north america is 11.5 years old >> it's so different now the used car, a lot of them have these great gizmos that make them work much better than we thought. used cars these days not unusual. >> not unusual at all. i think with a lot of the features and safety enhancements and the continued improvement of these cars, the longevity of these cars, i think, is just going to continue to increase in many respects. >> do you think the used car value, which is so high, has actually hurt the new car business >> well, i think that, you know, people do look at the used car as an alternative. especially if new car sales or new car prices continue to rise and then you have these what we call off lease cars that are really young cars, two or three years old, it is a good alternative. >> i think a car might be
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terrific if we do happen to get into serious levels of trade deals, i would think used cars would be quite the bargain >> i think used cars will grow, and, you know, if you think about the impact of tariffs. the tariffs won't really have an impact on us because we're a transactional company, but it will certainly have an impact on the sellers and certainly will have an impact on the ultimate consumer i think used cars could rise in values if tariffs were to come into place >> what do you think about the gm closing his plant psychologically, what does it say about the car business right now? >> every business is going through some transformation. we're experiencing transformation with many things we're doing. i don't think it's different for general motors or most
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businesses i would say in regard to your question about general motors, mary ber ra is a very astute ce. i think she's probably made her decisions based on where they see the market going in the next three, four, five years. >> you're a delight to have on you have a great view of things we don't necessarily get on the show, and i think -- great to meet you, sir, thank you >> really appreciate it, jim thank you. >> i think it's a pretty interesting story. i have to tell you, i just learned a lot myself i hope you did, too. "mad money" will be back in a
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>> caller: big jim, i'm sending you a big sunny florida boo ya to ya! >> love that >> caller: i finally jumped in to netflix a few months back and now i'm taking a bath in it. what's the deal? should i stick it out? >> i'm not a fan of netflix because i think a lot of it depends on the content i just don't find the content as compelling as it once was. i think it's a good story but not a great story because it's up so much for the year. that's a big determinate about how the stocks are doing >> caller: how about petco >> i'll endorse it because i think that's one of the biggest right now.
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john in alabama. >> caller: i hwant to know if i should buy or sell the ipo >> yeah, i like it just fine let's go to lionel in california >> caller: let's put some gray poupon on kraft heinz. 40 percent net margins, 50% off its high what is not to love? >> besides the fact there is no growth whatsoever. if you want to hope that they somehow manage to get some growth, you can buy it but if i want no growth, i want safety and i want a bond how about elaine in california elaine >> caller: hi, jim i wanted to talk to you about
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chico's? >> don't ask about chico's that was a horrible quarter. obviously there's sears and jcpenney, but it was a bad call. i don't want you in that, okay let's go to mikey in new york. mikey! >> caller: cramer, what's going on go, birds. >> go, birds >> caller: the company i wanted to ask you about, the brazilian payment companies. i want to know your opinion on how you think they'll perform in the short term >> i don't know stoneco, i know p paypal, i know mastercard, i know visa, i know global i don't know that one. i'll have to come back let's go to dave in california dave >> caller: hey, jim, you have the nicest staff in the world. >> the best. the best >> caller: jim, i have a question for you this company just bought a brazilian company. they're investing a billion on a new plant in houston their numbers look great
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it seems to be 50% under value for me what am i missing? >> because people think we're going into a big slowdown, but i agree with you i think it represents good value with a 4% yield, but i do prefer dow or dupont. that was the lightning round countering the gloom 3:20 this morning because i heard some guys will get you up at 3:30. does anybody else blow their nose on tv besides me? you should always have a hanky long term versus short i'm going in here with a hacksaw. you didn't get me a hacksaw. >> hello, jim. >> sometimes i think they're
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kind of like david blaine levitating the merger butt got hit. that is karma. that's juju. that's juju. we have jujus have coaches? who says they don't? coach mcadoo! you know, at td ameritrade, we offer free access to coaches and a full education curriculum- just to help you improve your skills. boom! mad education to take your trading to the next level. only with td ameritrade.
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whenever someone manages to stump me by calling in about a stock that i don't know or don't know well enough to form an opinion, i always take time to do the research and get back to you. although sometimes it takes a while to clear the backlog on september 14, dot in virginia asked me about government properties income trust, a simple gov this is a trust that mostly owns properties it leases to the government the timing on this one was pretty wild. we got the call on friday and then on monday government properties announced a trans formational move they already own 28% of select income and they actually sold that chunk back to the public to pay down debt. the whole thing is a very confusing transaction, one that was supposed to eliminate a weird kind of financial co-dependence but the market hated it which is why government properties instantly lost 20% of
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its moves making this the poorest cd move that i can recall i hope he kept waiting nobody likes to own high-yielding stocks when interest rates are climbing. it turns out leasing properties to the government isn't a great business, especially under the republican administration since the justice department doesn't like stock costs they really just like the core business so when they upgraded government properties last month after the stock's hideous bruising, the thing is even in that upgrade, they cut their price target from 11.50 down to 10.25. morgan stanley just didn't think the stock deserved to be down so dramatically me, i'm actually less silent
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let me tell you all you need to know about government properties right now the stock gives you an almost 20% yield as i have told you many, many times, when you see a yield like that, it's a red flag. it's a sign that investors do not believe in the dividend. they expect it to be cut and stocks don't go higher on dividend cuts. i want to you take a hard pass next up on september 20, scott in florida wanted to know about trans enterix. this is trxc write this one down. i told them i needed to do more digging. transenterix is a $23 million stock company. they are part of the minimally invasive robot space that people like so much it's like a much less invasive surgical the system is already on the market in the u.s. and europe.
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now, the stock had more than tripled year to date but since then transenterix used more than their meltdown the decline is a perfect example of why stocks like this are so risky. like so many high flyers, it flew too close to the sun. when investors pulled in their horns, the darn thing came plunging down to earth i'm all for speculation as long as it's done wisely but you have to know your own risk tolerance before you can even consider owning something like this let me put it this way when the company reported its earnings for last month, it was better than expected they sold four of their transenterix systems, four had they managed to sell five machines, it would have been a spectacular upside that makes continue insanely volatile stock
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when the difference between a good quarter and a bad quarter is is a single sale, there is so much that can go wrong even though health care stocks are almost totally minimizing, it's the pains of a slow economy. a lot of people had big gains so they decided to take profits when they still had them down here with three bucks and change, i think it's very cheap and the risks were more attractive the company had recently gotten some major approvals, including last month that let surgeons operate with fewer incisions, and they barely left any scars now you're effectively getting these approvaling f ins for free you do have my blessing to pick up some transenterix but only please with your discretionary money portfolio. only buy it with money you can afford to lose
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i'm not saying investing per se shouldn't be fun, but let's just say reward does beat the risk. stick with cramer. (toni vo) 'twas the night before christmas, and all thro' the house. re was stirring, but everywhere else... there are chefs, bakers and food order takers. doctors and surgeons and all the life savers. the world is alive as you can see, this time of the year is so much more than a bow and a tree. (morgan vo) those who give their best, deserve the best. get up to a $1,000 credit on select models now during the season of audi sales event. i still can't believe how incredible the screen is on the new iphone xs. and our unlimited plan really takes things to the next level
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with your choice of the best in tv, movies, or music. it's the perfect holiday upgrade. i know what i'm asking santa for this year. you still write letters to santa? no. please. i send him emails. can i get his email address? oh... i don't feel comfortable sharing it. get the iphone 10 s and our unlimited plan with your choice of the best in tv, movies, or music. more for your thing. that's our thing. this is a very difficult job. failure is not an option.a.
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more than half of employees across the country bring financial stress to work. if you're stressed out financially at home, you're going to be too worried to be able to do a good job. i want to be able to offer all of the benefits that keep them satisfied. it is the people that is really the only asset that you have. put your employees on a path to financial wellness with prudential. bring your challenges. it was a giant buy program for much of the day and accelerated to the bell and it was for classic grow stocks. a lot of it that looked like real buying was really about $7 billion that came into the market at the end of the day don't be fooled. a lot of those prices probably are not sustainable. i'm jim cramer and i will see
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i'm jim cramer and i will see you monday >> welcome to the shark tank, where entrepreneurs seeking an investment will face these sharks. if they hear a great idea, they'll invest their own money or fight each other for a deal. this is "shark tank." ♪ with a business inspired by her daughter cosette. hi, sharks. my name is aly lessor, and i'm the creator of the children's clothing line cozy bug. i'm asking for $50,000
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