it is 5:00 a.m. in d.c. and here is your top five at 5:00. the global markets are cheering a trade war truce. the u.s. and china reaching a 90 day to talk on tariff. stocks love it showing a 500 point jump at the open the rest of the world is rallying as well among the biggest winners are likely to be the automobile stocks we'll tell you why plus, breaking overnight, opec beginning to fracture one of its members saying it will quit the cartel next year oil is soaring

remembering george herbert walker bush. tributes pouring in for the 41st president of the united states after his death at age 94. take a look back at his legacy it is monday, december 3rd, and "worldwide exchange" begins right now. well, good morning and welcome from wherever in the world that you may be watching i am brian sullivan. thank you for beginning your week with us here. flags across america are at half staff following the death of president george herbert walker bush over the weekend. your big week begins with a big time move up in the market look at this it follows the positive development of the g20 meeting president trump and china's president agreeing to a 90 day pause in any new tariffs in the year the markets love it. futures on the dow indicating a more than 500 point jump at the open

similar moves on a percentage basis on the s&p and the nasdaq. all across the world we're seeing markets move up let's look at asia, china, the domestic shanghai market, that is a big winner. up 2.5%. hang seng, similar move. europe moving higher as well with a german market up nearly 2.5% all the major markets are moving up as well look at this, the german dax 2.6% in the bond market the yield on the ten-year note not moving as much the bond market cares about trade but it cares more about the federal reserve than it does about trade. of course, we'll see if this move changes the fed thinking there are 12 different federal reserve speakers throughout the week it's all ahead of the meeting in a couple of weeks for the federal reserve where another rate hike is expected. your biggest percentage move of any market this morning is oil crude oil right now is up 4.5% the country of qatar saying that it will leave opec next year

all of this out of thursday's meeting where it is likely the group will agree to cut oil production this, of course, after boosting production at the june meeting we're going to have much more on oil and opec coming up in a few minutes. meantime, we have full team coverage of the u.s. and china 90 day trade cease-fire. eunice yoon standing by and let us begin with eamon javers you were there >> reporter: good morning, brian. you're right absolutely, it is a trade truce between the united states and china. the united states side agreeing to a number of concessions, holding off on the plan to increase tariffs in january that the president had talked about holding off on the $267 billion in additional tariffs that the president had threatened if talks did not go well. so that's the u.s. side. on the chinese side, they have agreed to buy an unspecified amount of american product

the u.s. side lays out a number of industries that they committed purchasing from. they have not said what they're going to buy, but an agreement to make significant purchases by the chinese no matter what the dollar amount. the other key element as you've been pointing out here, brian, is that the united states side said there's a 90 day clock on the negotiations if they don't bear fruit, this he could put the tariffs back in place. the chinese side doesn't mention that 90-day negotiating window in their documents on this deal so it's unclear. there seems to be a little contentiousness on what was agreed to on the weekend nonetheless, a trade and tariff truce agreed to in buenos aires. here's the president describing this deal on air force one on the way back talking to some reporters. he said, it's an incredible deal if it happens, it goes down as one of the largest deals ever made it's a deal between the united

states and china made by the president and the president. this is the way president trump likes to do deals. mano a mano. man to man across the table. here is the photo of them sitting across the table from each other the president calling it a very special relationship here's what he said. >> the relationship is very special, the relationship that i have with president xi, and i think that is going to be a very primary reason why we'll probably end up getting something that will be good for china and good for the united states. >> reporter: brian, i should add. there's a new tweet from the president out at 11:00 p.m. east coast time adding a little additional detail. here's the president saying china has agreed to reduce and remove tariffs on cars coming into china from the u.s.

presumably that's a new element of the deal. we'll get more from automakers there, brian, as well, in this fascinating trade truce however temporary it may be. >> markets are loving it either way, eamon let's not forget it, this is three months a 90-day truce, it doesn't mean the trade war is over. let's dive into something more that you just talked about which is the china side. anybody giving any indication why the chinese are not playing up this 90 day period even snore. >> reporter: no. it may be that in their view it's simply an agreement to continue to negotiate, therefore, the time frame is not worth mentioning or they're deliberately trying to downplay either domestically in terms of domestic politics in terms of the international perception they don't want to feel like or suggest that they've got a ticking clock here they're trying to minimize that obviously by not mentioning it

in the deal. but, you know, look, both sides have a perspective on this the bottom line is the u.s. is not going to hike the tariff rates on january 1st as is the plan that's the temporary relief. the 90-day window is not real anyway in this sense i mean, it's not likely that you could negotiate this vast difference in trade policies between these two countries and get something that's equitable for both sides in that limited time frame is it would seem like if you're going to have a 90-day window that's basically the u.s. saying we're going to have an ongoing threat while we negotiate. as long as we feel the negotiations are bearing fruit, we're going to hold off on the tariffs. we can put them back in at any place. that's the leverage that the president wants. >> and the president's team no doubt understands the power of words. positive headlines mean the market rallies that's exactly what they're getting all ahead of, eamon, the holiday shopping season. it does seem to work out >> yeah, look, the timing here

is, you know, fortuitous for the president. he wanted a win here this weekend but my sense was in talking to people who were in buenos aires with the president, my sense was he didn't feel like he had to get the final deal this weekend he felt like he's got more time because the chinese economy is suffering. the president's mentioned this publicly as well therefore, he thought he had economic and political leverage over the chinese and over time they would want the deal more than they want it now and so the idea of agreeing to some big sweeping deal now when you don't have as much leverage as you're going to have later didn't strike him as wise the idea was to effectively kick this can down the road a little bit. >> the can is being kicked down the road but the market is being kicked 500 points to the up side eamon javers, great stuff. >> thanks, brian. the big story has got to be oil. the opec cartel may be crumbling. the country of qatar announcing hours ago that it plans to pull

out of opec next year. this after more than a half a century as a member of that group. other headlines are also out there. first you had the trade truce. then saudi arabia and russia, so-called opec plus, agreeing to extend their deal to manage the markets. in addition, canada's largest producing province announcing it would force producers to cut their output by nearly 9%. all of these headlines coming before the opec meeting on thursday. let's talk about how all of this morning's news could impact your morning joining us is james lu did you have any idea when you agreed to come on this fine program that we would have this kind of news i mean, first off, let's talk about trade. is the market overreacting a bit to the up side >> the market is reacting to the down side when the trade wars started to happen. this is positive for the markets because it shows maybe eventually there will be a light at the end of the tunnel.

>> we're still in the tunnel. >> as you say, it is still very early. this is a 90-day truce t. delays some of the tariff rises that would have happened at the beginning of the year. this is only a 90 day period so we'll have to see how it comes out. >> what do we make of a market that reacts like to to a couple of headlines >> yeah. the biggest challenge for the markets, which this plays into, is where are earnings going from here corporate earnings have faced significant uncertainty over the last year or so. 24% earnings growth rate for 2018, that's unsustainable going forward. we should be happy about what earnings haven't done. earnings aren't going to slow down if you get boost from trade. it looks like oil isn't going to help as it creates a murky picture, that's what investors say. >> i'm glad you mentioned oil. you have a weird fourth quarter. companies have been trying to, you know, deal with the tariffs. now they don't know if there's going to be new tariffs but their input costs, at least as

far as crude oil, have likely come down with the exception of the oil companies, is that just a net gain for earnings in the fourth quarter, oil's drop >> so it is but we're also coming off a slightly lower base than where we were a few years ago. when oil starts to plummet in 2014 oil prices were different. they have eventual gains to corporations and the direct impact where it occurs on the s&p 500 earnings now we're talking about a very different situation. oil prices are falling but it's not as big an impact as it was back then. i think corporations and u.s. consumers will see somewhat of a bump but that bump will take place over multiple quarters and it will be smaller. >> listen, we saw the federal reserve which is the leveraging and probably raising rates at the december meeting when we do, james, now we have all the news the markets are going to be up big today it looks like anyway futures. what do we do? >> the points forth typical

invest hor is to stay really balanced not just in u.s. equities we like u.s. equities. we're going to see lower returns over what we may have expected the more balance by holding potentially more fixed income. rates are much higher than they were a few years ago you can get much more decent levels of income in your portfolio. international stocks international stocks have fallen out of favor this year the story has gotten very difficult. we think that's a great place to be. >> international the world looks better. >> zblaert little more up side >> don't be too over weight the u.s. relative to the rest of the world. >> james liu, clearnomics. >> you led off the show. thank you. we'll see you soon. it is exciting up next, stocks are set to soar on the trade war truce we'll get you more on the headlines that will move your markets. amazon making major efforts to change how you so much yet again. details on their latest and

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♪ there's no place likargh!e ♪ i'm trying... ♪ yippiekiyay. ♪ mom. ♪ welcome back 56789:15 on monday morning if you are just getting up, look at that. we are seeing a big jump for stock futures. dow futures indicating a jump at 500 points

how is that for a good morning the markets are soaring on news the u.s. has agreed on a 90-day pause on chinese products. how is the story playing out in china? get to eunice yoon live in beijing. eunice, eamon javers is saying this is not necessarily getting a lot of play in china. >> reporter: no, getting very, very little play in china, and that's not the only issue that's being played down. the negotiators will be meeting in the next couple of weeks to work out unresolved issues at a regular press briefing the foreign ministry said both economic teams would work on removing all tariffs as instructed by president trump and president xi this eventual removal of tariffs is one of the outcomes of the g20 talks that is really being played up here in china, but that barely got any mention, if

mentioned at all by the white house. the white house is saying the talks are going to address what the u.s. feels are china's bad trading practices, such as forced technology transfers and cyber theft. china hasn't acknowledged that it engages in this the terms forced technology and cyber theft has been omitted from the chinese media reaction to the trade talks, the 90 day deadline it could rise to 25% and the revival of qualcomm and nxp deal has been played down they're saying discussions are going to be focused on opening up china's markets and boosting imports based on the needs of the chinese markets as well as the chinese people that interpretation is raising a lot of question, brian, as to whether or not the two sides are going to be able to get together and work out their differences

when they don't seem to even come to an agreement on what the problem is. >> it's kind of amazing, eunice, as we've heard and we've talked about our markets soaring, our futures up 500 points. the markets in hong kong and shanghai up 2.5% so traders there bought into these headlines and yet the headlines don't seem to buy into what the two sides may have said in buenos aires. >> reporter: i was talking to one executive about this, chinese executive. he said, at least we're relieved we haven't yet entered a cold war. the two sides, president trump and president xi, have been saying this is a big success at least they're saying at least right now for the moment we haven't entered a cold war but it still looks very difficult to see how the u.s. and china are going to be able to make a compromise on china's industrial

policies. >> eunice yoon live in beijing where the markets soared overnight like our markets are soaring now. thank you very much. let's welcome back in rufus jerkson. we spoke with you last week. you hoped for a positive outcome. is this the outcome that you had hoped for or is it still too temporary too really buy into? >> good morning, brian i think this is probably the best we could have expected. i think from business's point of view we wanted to see both sides step back from the brink and get into some kind of real negotiation with each other. they're saying they've kicked the can down the road, but that's probably a good thing because now they've got some time to both assess what their strengths and weaknesses are in negotiating with each other. we think it's a good sign that china appears willing to talk about some of the fundamental issues but by the same token, you know, i don't think it's

going to be that easy to get agreement on a lot of these things there are down side risks to both of these. they started to realize this trade war was costly to both of them we still urge the administration, you have a lot of work here to get the rest of the world on your side, put real pressure on china and avoid doing counter productive things to the u.s. economy over the next 90 days. >> do you think the stock market is overreacting to the headlines, rufus >> i'm not surprised we're seeing a sudden bump the impact of the tariffs domestically were becoming a real problem and that's -- you know, that's going to be a constraint on the trump administration going forward yes, the market is going way up today and the administration's talking about if we don't get a deal in 90 days we'll go back and put those on, but what happens to the market 90 days from now if we return to a trade war scenario >> that is the question.

we're going to be asking it all day on cnbc, rough fuse, thatufs we have a pause. it's a better headline than possibly other options. >> yeah. >> but what's the next step here as you heard eunice yoon say, china's downplaying it. >> i'm not surprised at that they're emphasizing the things they believe were good points for them in the accord that was struck you know, they're looking at the fact that the u.s. agreed to work towards the removal of all barriers if we can get a decent deal that shouldn't surprise anyone the chinese are emphasizing that if both sides do that in a negotiation of this type, eventually a fuller picture will become clear we'll know what kind of path lies ahead it will be a real difficult negotiation. in a fundamental way the

u.s./china relationship has changed now because both sides probably have a lot more mistrust of each other they'll have to rebuild that but, you know, also from a business point of view, you know, business is going to be hedging its bets about the u.s./china relationship going forward. that might mean more supply chains leaving china, but it also means for u.s. farmers, for example, are they deally going to get back the chinese market the way it happened before this started. >> we'll find out. we have a pause, a pause that refreshes but maybe just a because. rufus yerxa. thank you. >> my pleasure. deal or no deal. the year is winding down we'll look back at the bgeigst m&a headlines and what could be the biggest deals on the horizon up next.

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like a biotech firm that engineers a patient's own cells to fight cancer. this is strategic investing. because your investments deserve the full story. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. welcome back good monday morning. with all the headlines this morning, let's not forget maybe the most important one of all. president george herbert walker bush passing away friday night at his home. this week the nation will remember his life and legacy. >> reporter: poppy bush was cut from different cloth he was made of a material we rarely see now a days, shot down over the pacific in world war

ii, bush's lifelong regret was losing two men on that mission others would want to make him a hero, but bush was then and forever a person who would prefer to deflect praise than to bask in it after doing his bit, he would say, he and barbara fled greenwich, connecticut, and the shadow of his prominent father to find their destiny in the dusty permian rich nation of texas. he became a congressman. his career in politics was marked by several failed campaigns but he was always quick to rejoin the fray as to take jobs which seemed not to be spring boards to something bett better. >> we've got to go to work where bush was ambitious but he was imbued with the old school value of paying your dues. service and hard work were their

own rewards. that, he felt, should be resume enough for someone who aspired to be president. >> for a better america, for an endless, enduring dream and a thousand points of light >> reporter: tooting his own horn was an act he wasn't good at nor did he want to be america's success in the first gulf war catapulted his approval ratings to record highs, but as the economy faultered, bush was blamed for its failure the public perception that he was out of touch fueled in part by the media's infatuation with bill clinton was unfair. he was a man with unfinished business but out of a job yet bitterness or any impulse to criticize the successor were out of bounds as far as he was concerned. over the years many would tell him how much he was missed, words he appreciated but wasn't hungry for seems like people like him don't

come around much anymore >> president trump has declared wednesday a national day of mourning the new york stock exchange will be closed on wednesday

the u.s. calling for a 90-day tariff cease-fire after

months of trade turmoil. china downplaying the news but the markets love it. dow futures up 500 points right now. markets around the world moving up as well oil also spiking just days ahead of one of the most important opec meetings in years one of the oldest members says it is quitting the cartel. oil up nearly 5% ♪ ♪ welcome back or welcome and thank you for being with us on cnbc. hope you're having a great start to your week it is a busy monday. the markets having a pretty good start to their week as well. get this dow futures indicating a jump of 500 points at the open that's it, 5-0-0 markets around the world up nicely as well china up 2.5%. germany up 2.5%. let's get to the markets that

are moving your money. contessa brewer. >> hi there, brian, the u.s. and china agreeing to halt any further tariffs. it will bridge differences with fresh talks. the so called cease-fire will reach an agreement in 90 days. french president macron ordering talks between rioters and the leaders. they started the backlash against fuel tax hikes and has since spread. the w"the wall street journ said amazon is tracking the touchless checkout >> contessa brewer, thank you. we'll see you in a few minutes let's get a check on the other top headlines outside of money

and business frances rivera in new york with more >> reporter: hi, brian officials in washington announcing that a top taliban leader has been killed a taliban shadow governor was killed saturday in an attack by an unmanned aircraft this is the biggest blow since 2016 when a british leader was killed by a drone strike. people in the midwest are assessing the damage after a string of tornadoes have gone through. one man has been killed in his motel. in illinois, here's a photo of a tornado touching down. 34 buildings destroyed in taylorville. the magnitude 7 earthquake on saturday, most of the major damage has been to highways in the region

the governor of alaska has issued a disaster warning. >> there's a lot in alaska frances rivera thank you very much. topping your headlines has got to be oil prices up more than 4% right now. all out of a crucial opec meeting on thursday where production may, indeed, get cut. that is not the only intrigue or headline with oil. qatar saying it will quit opec as of january 1 gs to focus on natural gas. qatar is 2% of opec. it's a small oil producer, huge gas producer qatar saying it has nothing to do with the economic and political pressure being put on it by saudi arabia and others. do you buy that? >> partially it's a small producer. 600 barrels a day. they've announced they're going

to comply with the cuts. they want to focus on lng and a lot of the liquid is exempt from opec >> they're under sort of a diplomatic blockade, egypt, saudi arabia, and some others. they've been in opec since 1961. they are the first gulf nation to ever quit the cartel. big changes can start from small things do you believe that qatar's move, as small as it may be, may be a bigger move longer term in the future of opec >> that's quite a big question currently we don't see in that regard we need to see how the meeting goes at the end of this week the agreement, the degree of agreement, potential discourse

among some of the members. you're quite right, it is significant in the first arab gulf member leaving. we haven't got this as the start of a snowball which will lead to the big solution of opec because we believe opec and its other members need to cut production this next year to balance supply and prepricing we think the cartel needs to come together to reach an agreement. >> we will be there on thursday as the opec meeting in vienna austria. do you think they will make a deal to cut production after their deal to increase production just back in june >> we do i mean, we're -- what we're hearing from a number of the members is they have a similar view to ours which is next year looks like over supply unless we get a reduction from opec. the question we have is the size

of that reduction. we're starting to read the political tea leaves in terms of saudi, russia. the other members seem quite positive what we're not sure about is how big the cuts will be. >> alan gelleder, a pleasure to get your insights. thanks very much let's go back to the broader markets. wow, okay. good monday morning. dow futures, chad, up 500. >> tell me about it. >> on a 90-day pause. >> yeah, trade truce. >> are we overreacting >> i don't think they're overreacting the big phrase of the day is going to be kick the can down the road although you're seeing a global slowdown. we believe this lifts some of the uncertainty for the next three months. >> does it >> because we don't have a deal. we say we're not going to have new tariffs that we were planning to do and hopefully we

can work something out in 90 days. >> that is the hope. as we all know, there's no real mess behind what they were talking about this weekend so there's no real way to extrapolate. >> futures traders and traders around the world are buying on the news germany up 2.5%. shanghai and hong kong up 2.5% futures up 500 you're a bottom up fund manager. are you buying stocks on this news >> on this news, no. we have it accumulating based on this you can look at sectors like the industrials that came down 30% to 40% all look at other themes of the market to start to nibble. >> what is it, about 30% mentioned the word tariffs in their earnings release they don't have a freebie but at least they've got a pause. do you think this will help earnings in any way? >> it won't help a great deal

but the concern is 18 months to 24 month cap operating margins. >> ceo planning hasn't changed one dime this morning to friday. they still don't know what the trade or tariff situation will look like in six months. >> what they do know is it's not going to get substantially worse and escalate for the next three months and hopefully you can get a deal six to nine months out. so the market is actually looking 12 to 18 months out in the hopes of what earnings are going to look like, what global growth is going to look like let me tell you something, if they don't get a deal and it starts to unwind, china's market is going to accelerate >> i do wonder, maybe this is the cynic in me. the market could either be reacting to this or sending a signal to the trump administration saying, look, if you can solve this, we're going

to give you up side. we know you're a president that wants up side. do you think this is more of a signal or a reaction >> i think it's a reaction i don't think that the market is signaling as much. what you're getting is ce multiple expansion on global markets. you're not going to get margins are elevating to these tariff concerns could actually have negative implications across the margins in the united states which would then have negative implications on earnings. >> and it's a bit muddled but you've got to take it out. what you're suggesting, tell me if i'm not hearing you right, which is that if you're in an industry that was going to get whacked or whacked harder on higher tariffs january 1st, you've now got a bit of a reprie reprieve analysts will have to quickly remodel their earnings estimates to not count them for a couple of months into the first quarter. >> three to six months. >> that's. >> the end of february

>> congratulations this is not a massive game changer. >> 2/3 of the first quarter is a tariff freebie. >> you have the tariff freebie and remember the jerome powell fed statement gives you another tailwind here to the overall market you could see another 2 to 4%. >> a pause, the powell put we are seeing dow futures up 500. good monday morning. >> to you as well, brian. up next, your deal making playbook by quite a year for mna. we'll take a look back at the biggest mergers and look ahead at what 2019 might bring remembering the life of george herbert walker bush here's a staggering fact of his time in office did you know from his one term from '89 to '93 the dow jumped 45%. fact, president bush number 41

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with your choice of the best in tv, movies, or music. more for your thing. that's our thing. a little bit rainy, kind of warm, a little foggy that's times square but here's the sunshine even before the sun shines dow futures are up nearly 500 points we saw a rally in asia

we're seeing a rally right now in the european markets. s&p, nasdaq futures all up a couple of percent. it is, of course, on be the headlines that crossed over the weekend on saturday night. president trump saying there's going to be a 90 day truce, a pause, a cease-fire, whatever term you want to use in implementing new tariffs on chinese made tariffs on january 1st. china downplaying the news a bit but the markets don't care they're reacting in a positive way. dow futures up nearly 500 points right now. in corporate news this morning, next star media group has reportedly reached a deal to buy tribune media for $4.1 billion. this would make next star the largest regional business in the united states. harash, another $4 billion deal in what has been a heck of a year for deals

>> absolutely. there was another one just announced in the last two hours which is a transaction between two sort of heavy weights of the consumer and pharma. gsk is selling its indian subsidiary or, rather, merging it into hindu unilever in a transaction that will add to unilever's consumer portfolio in south asia and bring in a horlicks brand which is a malted milk beverage which is popular in india and will add to the emerging market where unilever is the largest the next deal we're expecting to be announced in hours when the u.s. market begins. >> low interest rates are kind of the gasoline, harash, on the deal making fire if you can't get returns one way, you'll go somewhere else. we're seeing interest rates come up a bit there's talk of slowdowns. any indication that the deal market in the beginning of next year is going to slow down >> interest rates have definitely played a major role in deal making

the availability of key leverage has made that incremental deal that larger companies have sought to do a bit easier. as interest rates go up that complicates the mass of it and takes the risk taking dynamic out of it. companies do deals for a bunch of reasons one of the things that's been driving them is the relatively open nature of markets for the last few years that's starting to cool off a bit as you've seen the u.s./china tensions despite the latest news of the weekend i think that thawing isn't going to be significant enough to sort of revive the flow of chinese deals into the u.s. and it has now become a political concern and security concern the u.s. deals and china were never that prolific. we have two major drivers really having cooled off which will put quick pressure if there's any expectation that we're going to hit the same level the flip side is even as rates go up, private equity is armed with cash. at the moment they seem to be doing ever more increasingly large deals.

we broke a story that madison dearborn has joined a group with nielsen which could be one of the biggest buyouts since the financial crisis if it happens it looks like there will be a race for that asset starting next year. elsewhere arconic, the sort of alcoa is another one that's being targeted by private equity what we're seeing is larger and larger private equity deals are becoming the largest driver of m&a from the big ticket driver. >> looking at two deals this morning. we appreciate it we'll see you soon thank you very much. speaking of big deals, de"da or no deal" with howie man dell premiers this week it is the all new "deal or no deal." on deck, stocks going up dow futures up nearly 500.

we'll give you the key things you need on your radar when the opening bell rings plus our rbi on the passing of george h.w. bush some of the things you may not have known about our 41st president. stick around ♪ ignition sequence starts. 10... 9... guidance is internal. 6... 5... 4... 3... 2... 1...

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get up to a $1,000 credit on select models now during the season of audi sales event. it may only be 5:51 eastern time but analyst calls are rolling into cnbc. do you have your pencils ready good here we go at&t upgraded from overweight to neutral. the analysts citing expectations for organic growth and asset sales following recent meetings with management. their target on at&t is 38 bucks. they see six bucks of up side. now at the same time the same analysts downgrading verizon to neutral from over weight the target remains 62. 1.50 of up side. they're saying all the gains in

verizon are in but at&t could make new money over the next couple of months. looks like the stock market could make some people some money today. dow futures up about 500 points now on the headlines coming out of the g20 let's bring in mark vitt ner senior economist at wells fargo. you have a big smile on your face happy monday i like to see it. >> yeah. >> the market loves the news you're not a stock guy but you are an economist does this 90 day pause change our economic or earnings outlook that much? >> it's the first bit of good news we've had on trade since the tariffs began. it doesn't mean everything is going to get solved. it's a step in that direction. i think that the president is switching tactics here a little bit and using fewer sticks and a few more carrots >> i like what you're saying i think i'll write that in

headlines, mark. it may not be the beginning of good but maybe it is the end of bad? >> i think that very well could be and i think that's what the markets are hoping for but it's probably the end of bad for 2018 for sure >> okay. so how do you -- how do you work -- how -- you and your team when you go and you have all of these big excel spreadsheets, you're modeling earnings estimates and economic estimates, how do you factor in the great unknown that tariffs could kick in, maybe not until march 1 snst. >> it's a big overhang on the market and it's an unknown when you have uncertainty, when you increase uncertainty, businesses tend to pull back on capital spending and that's exactly what we've seen. so we're a little bit more cautious in our outlook with the continued uncertainty. that's about all you can do. you don't know for certain how this is going to play out. >> do you raise anything like gdp estimates or any other

estimates from macro economic data on this 90-day policy do you change your model >> no, we really didn't scale them back that much with the uncertainty from the tariffs it looked like it was probably 1/10 off of growth in 2018, it could be as much a as 2/10 off of growth. if we get a resolution, i don't think we will in 90 days because there are a whole lot of issues involved, but if we take steps forward, it will reduce the spending. >> do you think it changes the fed thinking by the way, let's not forget, we have a fed rate meeting in a couple of weeks, mark. >> i don't think it changes their thinking at all. i think the fed had gotten their messaging a little bit wrong chairman powell is the harry truman of fed chairs he's so plain spoken he really over did it. he over sold the fed's intentions to raise interest

rates and he had the opportunity to walk it back last week and he did and i think that he is now having a proper assessment of the way the fed -- the interest rate environment they're data dependent for a while it looked like they had a preset path. they're data dependent they go into every meeting with an open mind. >> mark, quickly, it's the end of the year. may not get to chat with you before new year's eve. do we get a recession in 2019? >> i don't think so. i really think we've got some run room ahead of us there's a lot of stimulus in the pipeline consumer confidence is high. we have real strong income growth the savings rate is better than 7% the one thing that does worry me is housing is really weakened and capital goods orders have slowed the most cyclical parts of the economy are slowing in a way that concerns me but they never really boomed and without a boom i don't think there's that much down side there. >> mark vitner of wells fargo

securities, maybe not the beginning of good but the end of bad. hope you have a spectacular day and great week see you soon. >> great. >> wrap up with your rbi random but interesting today is about the passing of george h.w. bush because there are definitely some random things you may not know about our 41st president. he was shoot down in the pacific in world war ii but he was rescued by a submarine he was also likely the youngest flying officer in world war ii going up in the air just before his 19th birthday. although he was often thought of as being a long-term politician and he did serve in the public office, he was actually one of the more experienced on the congressional side to ever become president served two terms in the house of representatives. since the 22nd amendsment was passed, he was the only member of the same party elected after another president of that same party. republican to republican but whatever the randomness of the fact, the fact is he was a great american and he will be missed and he is remembered here

on cnbc and wor"worldwide excha" would salud george herbert walker bush. dow futures are up big we are back tomorrow "squawk box" takes over. ♪ there's no place like home ♪

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good morning trade truce. the u.s. and china agreeing to a 90 day cease-fire in the skirmish is it called a war stocks are soaring on the news with the dow indicated at 500 points we'll have a rundown of the market movers and an opec member is calling it quits after 57 years. we'll show you the reaction in crude prices monday, december 3rd, 2018 "squawk box" begins right now.

live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box. good morning welcome to "squawk box," everyone this is cnbc and we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square i'm becky kernen along with mike santoli and joe kernen it's great to see you. >> thanks for having me. >> we have lots to talk about. check out the futures. they are up sharply because of what happened at the g 20 this weekend. you'll see that the dow futures are up by 470 points this comes after a big week last week dow was up 5.2%. the s&p 500 is up 45 points.