staying out of donald trump cross hairs. he's doing a good job there as well >> tom farley, thank you very much it was great to have you >> mike, am i going to see you tomorrow >> i am. >> that does it for us today, make sure you join us tomorrow, right now it is time for "squawk on the street. ♪ good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i am carl quintanilla with david faber and jim cramer u.s. and china agreed to hold off tariffs for 90 days. big day today, president burn will be laid to rest and oil is back to a bid of 53. u.s./china agreed to hold off additional tariffs and allowed

for talks to continue. >> oil is surging this morning and expected supply cuts and soybean prices are jumping after china agreed to buy substantial agricultural product >> remembering 41, the late president george h.w. bush who died over the weekend. >> the u.s. and china agreed to a 90-day truce during the summit in argentina steven mnuchin spoke about a potential of a successful conclusion to those talks. >> i am hopeful we can turn this the president made it clear that there is a pause if we don't have a real agreement, the tariffs will increase he can always contemplate more there was clearly a very genuine offer from president xi to president trump to make sure

they open up their markets to u.s. companies this will be a single opportunity for economic growth for u.s. workers and economies i think this is a big difference >> he did say there is a couple hundred issues here. if some are not finalized, that's one thing that's up to the president to decide there are some things that could happen that would signal for us for real >> merrill lynch with an important upgrade. secondly, i think that you want to see xi link, i think there is going to be a metaphor here. we know nxpi is not going to get a bit from qualcomm. hey guys we are opening deal that we are blocking >> bizarre

>> i almost called you no, they paid him $2 billion >> qualcomm put a statement out yesterday saying we have moved on and everybody is moved on don't expect that to be revisited. treasury secretary language in terms of real, you need a real deal and then a genuine offer he feels was made to a certain extent to xi those are the key quotes in my mind the question is what's real and what's genuine >> the next three months, they'll have to figure it out. there is some obvious thing that don't impact us. you just go buy soybeans that's their strategy for ages i want to see visa and mastercard is able to go in there. that would be a sign >> that would bring up structural changes that many believe china will be reluctant

to under take >> that's what we need to see. >> lighthizer is pretty sophisticated. i think there is some obvious things they called do that really signals, we are done with our way. we'll allow you to do what you want >> do we know who's leading? >> navarro this morning tells npr that lighthizer will leave and mnuchin comes on our air saying the president will leave. maybe there is no difference >> you look at the way the table was, you would think that mnuchin is going to leave because he's next to the president. listen, the president is going to leave the president seems to like to enjoy this tension between the mnuchin camp and the navarro camp he seems to like it. as a judge in "the apprentice," not to be too reality but that's what he liked.

a lot of times he's mature about who he fires what are the next three months going to be like market wise coming in and reacting to every headline and report in terms of this happens or that or negotiations good or bad or different and this is going well or that's not going well >> america's best gets a call. listen, you have been sitting on your request for 14 years, i know it sounds silly caterpillar gets a giant order these are things we would say for real if they don't in the next three months then we know they're not for real >> they could have make the agreement in the next three months and those things will happen from the agreement if in fact they reach one. >> if you are up this much, we need to see concrete orders and deals. >> we'll know pretty early on whether or not this new

framework is going to work >> let's hope they don't do something like nxpi is we'll buy your natural gas natural gas is sold out. that again is window dressing. buying more of our stuff is no t the key consideration here it is the structural reforms in terms of opening up their market in a real way to competition to not forcing technology transfers and cutting out cyber espionage if it is possible to get them to do that. it is those things that's difficult to imagine the chinese truly saying yes to and getting to the final agreement >> they did not talk when the media there about technology transfers. they don't do any of these things >> i would love to hear an actual admitens. we have been doing something the navarro camp is about the

2025 niche tiinitiative to be ao pass us and make them a world power that's equal to us hey, let's get some stuff bought and let visa in there. one is limited and one is more >> the sale size is out this morning with some levels 2800 or 2875 at what point does the market get in front of its skis here? >> we need a strong enough now we are passing this, we'll focus on the payroll you want it to shows less than 3% and you want powell to put through -- you need the quarter point in order to make it. you have to have a statement, we are really close and not just close as opposed to be far that would make it and you would go back and think okay, we got another reason to buy.

the wise guys will sell it off and you will get a decent number that'll allow you to think a little more gold ielocks you got people saying maybe 2019 is no t the way to go. dollar tree says most retailers have built in the tariffs negotiated of 25% in the first quarter. most of the analysts have taken numbers down that was one of the reasons why retailers traded so badly. those can go backup and stay up for about the holiday season because the stock market did not kill it. the only thing that we got to watch price houses $90 million tariffs, that's a good example that could be better dollar general supports this those are all kinds of

interesting now that we know they're not going to be scrambling and they have three more months to find toys that ends up in the landfill. >> i got it. that's true. that's where most of the stufste buy from china ends up, in our landfill >> i was just thinking back to last monday when we are talking about powell and what we are going to get and what trade and the answer for the market on both fronts right now is positive >> there is going to be wise guys who faded right now there is people who's saying i get to sell apple higher than i deserve. can you imagine how many people want you so-called fade apple. those guys are saying i can punch it i don't know if apple is the box or the bag, david?

>> box or bag, i got it. i don't know >> how do you think all of this -- out of argentina, does it affect powell's thinking? >> theoretically -- i think powell got his bases covered because it is a quarter point. he gets to have that listen, we are ready and they delayed it for three months and putting through the quarter point and we'll wait i think people are thinking that it is two hikes next year instead of three >> neither powell or g-20 really steepen the curves it is not that they got crazy steep in the way of the two big macro risk being taken off >> you need to see the mortgage rate peaked. they have been going up and up while housing rates are going

down >> sales 20% out west. that's amazing is that what you are looking at? >> is that what it is? >> our systems are down across the board here it is disconcerning so i have to consult my phones for all things right now. >> i figured you were given that song in google >> i was not looking up. >> carl? >> carl is all that stuff. >> i am a little surprised that you are quoting pearl jam. >> that's who you talk about when you are trying to make a point. >> the president did tweet about autotariffs about china cutting tariffs on cars from the u.s. into china know sort of depth on that or confirmation >> people buying gm and want it. tesla is the winner. now that i said that, people regarding me as endorsing tesla. we don't know how much their

sales. >> 40% tariff dissuades people from buying automobiles that's made in the united states. >> you are so right. >> i am going to remember that moment >> you are so right. 9:11, you are so right >> we'll get some auto sale numbers rolling in we'll be back in a moment. i don't know what's going on. i've done all sorts of research, read earnings reports, looked at chart patterns. i've even built my own historic trading model. and you're still not sure if you want to make the trade? exactly. sounds like a case of analysis paralysis. is there a cure? td ameritrade's trade desk. they can help gut check your strategies

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getting autosales today, we got honda so far let's get to phil lebeau in chicago. >> the decline of 6.9%, estimate of edmund of a decline of 9.3% it has been the story the last year and a half. cars continue to fallout of favor down 19.5% truck series and suvs, they continue to sell sales topping 70,000 units the f series is going to be approaching 900,000 plus in terms of sales for the year. we'll be getting other

automakers throughout the day. the sales pace of 17.1 to 17.3 million vehicles which is a strong pace this late in the cycle. back to you >> thank you, phil >> phil, there are stories about how ford is quietly laying off more people than gm which would be good for ford's call structure. what are you hearing >> they have been strategic in terms of saying okay, we are going to start deciding what line we'll cut back here and what line we'll cut back there remember they made the announcement last week they'll be shifting some of their production down to the plant as they try to ramp up some of the production of some of their larger suvs and pulling down production of cars up in the flat rock plant. it is one of the cases where we are in this for the next year and a half with the domestic autoproduction with the exception of bmw and mercedes

benz, you are going to see the domestic automakers sit there and say how much can we pair back production because there are a number of plants just not running efficiently enough if they can't, they'll try to do what general motors said to do >> wow anything on china and the big winners there, phil? it is bmw. the big ones are bmw, tesla, they have the most gains tesla is dead in the water with china if that tariffs stay at 40%. i think they sold at 118 or something like that last month ridiculous lily low numbers they're not going to increase those numbers. bmw and mercedes, they're the ones of big exporters there. it is really small number of vehicles they sell into china. we really get three models here

in the u.s. that's built in china. impact is limited in terms of vehicles being imported here >> very important. thank you, phil. we'll look for further progress regarding u.s. and europe too on some of these tariffs. >> tesla, i guess you can get a squeeze going in there >> could be. >> in terms of things that chinese may or may not buy from us, soybeans highest since june and corn and wheat since late september, on the announcement of this substantial buy. >> that's what jay powell does not want to see. he certainly does not want to see oil rally big and that's something we have not talked about. you know what the price and crude is out of that area? >> i didn't hear you >> the canadian, $10 a barrel, they're making nothing that's very important. >> new york stock exchange and the nasdaq are about to have a moment of silence in remembrance

of the 41st president of the united states, john harwood is joining us for a moment to talk about the president. i saw a note this morning that says you know it is a rich life lived when the first paragraph does not refer to the white house given so many roles he played >> he was an amazing human being in addition to his political legacy, but, he had a significant legacy for our economy. remember even though the president was not rewarded with a second term, he engaged in some clean-up activities that set the stage for future economic progress while cleaning up the savings in loan industry which was been ignored and in solvent. secondly, the budget deficit deal that he struck with congressional democrats divided government, the period we are entering to now, he acknowledged the need of cuts spending and

raise taxes. he took the top rate of 28% into 31% and it was paid off in the 1990s. >> cia director, vice president, one of the youngest fighter pilots in the history of the u.s. navy. here is that moment of silence.

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. as you can see we'll have a strong open, the market king off of the truth that has been taken place over china/u.s. over trade. now it is time to get to "mad

dash" as we count down to the opening bell it where are we here on this monday for your mad dash? i am interested in wynn here it is up big they were excellent. december is very easy comparisons. you get a couple of months for free because someone is thinking maybe the chinese is shutting down and big gamblers is going to win steve wynn sold his share at 177. >> it was a great sale it was nothing down until maybe today. >> is that something >> it is better to be lucky than good i do think that this is a call for buying it given the fact that novice good december is easy comparisons and you don't have to worry about january. it is unlikely that the chinese did anything bad to any american company. >> 21 or 22? >> but, there has been concern

about listen you start to discount back three years from now if you assume the cost of the license is going to increase dramatically >> this is a trade for our "mad dash." >> okay, keep an eye on share of wynn today >> we got a few deals we'll be watching >> oh my, yes. >> which one do you like >> we have t-sorrow. what's interesting to watch is the premiums being paid over 100% the stock is going to have a nice move. a deal buying an oncology company focuses on ovarian cancer, they're trying to

assess as a mono therapy in combination for what they call a larger therapy, first line of treatment of ovarian cancer. >> a lot of people have been talking to the company and the stock is up. honey moon period has been up and you see glaxosmithkline is getting hit pretty hard. a 30-day volume weighted average price. you can see over 59% from friday's close >> last week we did a "mad dash." >> it was better in general. >> i think it gives us more room to maneuver. it is our edge >> better circulation. >> well, celgene, there was an

upgrade, listen it has been 67 that was the time i feel remiss and i do not recall the analyst. look at biotech and how it is moving a lot of that -- people are saying enough, this group is too hated verses big pharm >> smith klein saw the decline there in the stocks because they are paying this large premium. they are doing other things, i know you saw as well other consumer healthcare to uni lever. paul pallman is stepping aside he did not do i. >> he did not know what his

shareholders wanted and now he's out. >> he's out. >> he's most important issue to be remembered is sustainability and buying food key brands that proof is so split you got mccormick that's doing so well which is spices. that was a mistake it was good. then you have the kraft. maybe no one wants to sell >> maybe no one wants to sell and you got to do it friendly. nobody is coming out well. it was the key -- it is almost two years and a big fail for them we have been talking about it ever since even though the stock had been fairly good. that departure of home is a big deal >> yeah. >> it is a plan resignation, planning for retirement. >> i think that had been the one

that people liked and proctor has had a remarkable move. truly remarkable i think that's dividend related. people felt that jay powell was going to do his one and three. the one and three take that off the table, those stocks are not as attractive. >> you mentioned analysts with a bunch of call today, a downgrade of verizon of the table turning there. >> i like that at&t had a good meeting where they talked about and how about going to monetize entertainment. its price is one of the hottest stocks it is not the greatest company on earth, it is a company that had good dividend. >> right place and right time kind of thing. >> a strategy that people can understand to a certain extent and concentrate far i donbeyond

oaf is not a success >> that's just me being an oaf >> let's get to the opening bell here at the big board is marathon petroleum celebrating and acquisition of u.s. andeavor >> i rarely do this. i think marathon is down way too much, mpc. >> it is down from 88 to 65 as of this morning. i think it is a remarkable acquisition and refineries continue to do well. marathon charges you a lot a lot of people say wait a second, the price at the pumps come down and we should sell the company. i am actually in favor of buying the company at 3% yield >> we did get putin making some

comments about potential production deals while he was in argentina as well. >> everybody wants us to stop drilling i hate that we are 11.5 going into 12. there was an odd article this morning about the president make it so we can drill where the polar bears are. but, the companies that are involved really don't want to do it there is a lot of offshore talk that the company can't do it they make money on it. if you look at slumber jay, the stock is down. we don't talk with companies with trouble balance sheet, weather ford and chesapeake. >> very much so. barely made sales. take it with grain of salt, the president wants us to drill in a lot of places that we have not drilled. the company themselves are not clearly not interested in drilling these places or they'll be hiring slumber jays

they have not. >> i am trying get that picture of polar bears being run over by trucks >> well, that has not happened yet there. >> i would really hate -- >> i am in favor of polar bears. i am coming out right now and taking that position >> i like the idea that there is still something besides north carolina that's truly wild >> untouched >> mr. green peace >> mr. environmental >> i have been one, you feel never asked. a lot of trees and birds >> the environment is totally out of synced with the administration >> you mention some retail names, citi does take cost and dick's is going down today

costco is doing very well and they're a big winner if you can get the chinese to stay with a lot of private label stuff a lot of companies that did well on saturday's g-20 sells into cost costco maybe it was written on friday and they released it i thought it was not a good downgrade. i am albier at costco here >> we are below 2800 now what kind of leadership do you want to see assert itself today? >> i want to see industrial and perhaps it is real >> so cyclical >> yes, i want to see boeing up and caterpillar. i want to see dollar general up. i don't want to see the apple faded. >> apple is going to be faded. what can i tell you. there is so many price target

cuts to come apple selling at 12 time earnings i still believe the surge stream we are not going to dump like we did. >> right >> they don't think. >> one of the concerns of apple extended to iphones and what it means and whether tariffs would apply in the next round. >> and still by the way if this month is not proved to be successful >> stay of execution >> i think opportunity apple but there are analysts who are afraid of apple. it is really remarkable. afraid of twelve times earnings and happy at 16 times earnings and 5-g. worried that 5-g is not going to count. 5-g is customers the cowboys does not get there fast enough. >> qualcomm, steve mullincof

>> we don't use them and they don't use us we are not going to -- >> how about micron here micron sky works, they had a relationship with china. >> t.i. is backup 100 said some things >> yes, autos, t.i. connected with autos general interpret net of thingsi felt it is still compelling and nobody is taking it away >> i have to rely -- >> active connection here. >> what i would tell you is that everything is up except for soft good stocks. >> soft good stocks are not up

>> j&j is one of those companies go up in the event of thermal nuclear war. here it is in advance. m.j. which had been moving on the idea they may have something big this morning didn't. >> what was the other one? what was expectations? >> we never found out. >> i did not hear about the idea >> it is unbelievable. take a backseat to the caterpill caterpillar. >> coming back to caterpillar. it was so-called de-risk by this downturn and anything is possible is it easy for xi to say let 100 caterpillar -- >> solid macro trends can take your multiple from 11 back to 13 >> that was right. you go t a big number and jay powell blinked there is always people say it

did not blink. >> you were pretty resolute on that on wednesday. >> jesus, look, it was always about neutral. what is neutral. you go back to october 3rd, we are far from neutral and last week, we are closer to neutral >> just below neutral. >> is that a change? >> i guess, i don't know >> the difference is what just below is we can be below something but be far from it. >> look at him we agreed to be lieke polar bears. >> relative to the sky, he's below the looroof >> that's a good point with we playing shoots and ladder here? >> jim, we are getting decent moves on big cap chinese internet amazon got a nice run, too >> is it interesting that people may say that the biggest winners are the chinese stocks

they were up gigantically last night. therefore, we are winning. that may no longer seem to be the operative. >> alibaba had been used as a proxy of the ongoing tensions between the two countries. that's why you see it down not over the last month but down over the last year >> we have walmart and target, that's why i thought kcostco is out of sync. >> did we stock tariproducts ahd of tariffs >> there is some ceos disputed that >> jeff gennette

>> i think macy's is not trading strong dollars >> tiffany >> chinese tourists in particular >> macy's is trying to make a come back. >> i thought that was a great interview you guys did the stock is not in favor because of - typically we have to buy things. >> guys, we mention one of the deals this morning >> i have an idea which one you are going to do next >> you can see it right here, i am going to do tribune >> when did i have next star on. >> what happens is they would not let the concentration. >> they moubought media general make themselves large. now, they're going to be really large when it comes to local ship with statement.

remember tribune had a deal with sincla sinclair it was controlled by them and said to have been the -- that did not happen tribune put them back on the block and ended with nice price. >> they sure did >> it is all caps. not the nexstar name was a surprise it is a $6.4 billion total deal when you include tribune talking about $160 million first year operatiing synergies. it is effectively 78% and at some point, there is an

expectations the fcc is going to revisit the national cap there is some regulatory that you can never rule it oit, regulatory risk. there is a belief that it will be okay. >> it is interesting tv has nod bet been hurt as nea much >> i think tv is a surprising winner with the internet football being a good example. football they got some exciting games and it matters for the numbers. >> it pops because so much of broadcast primetime had done nothing. at least this season football really stands out. >> it is a really good example of a fabulous game that i expect people stay to the end to watch. this looks like a wok. >> football is back. that was not supposed to be back >> i am excited for that one where celebrity singers have themselves costumed and you don't know who they are.

>> yeah, what's it called? >> i know the one you mean did you miss that? they had these crazy head things on their heads and everybody has to guess who they are. >> come on, that's incredible tv >> no? >> there is a commercial, i have that package and as soon as there is a commercial, i go to another game i mean my wife said will you stop it? >> me. >> enough already. let's move onto a new theme. >> oh, here is my wife, she just checked in she's going to lowe's, you know we did have that breakthrough last week. she did not confirm that she like -- she did not deny it either

>> the question when we are on i am busy in that 10 or 12 period i am only 9. >> that's okay she's going to lowe's, dow is up 417. boeing is up 6%. cat is up for nike and ford. let's get to seema mody. >> how important this trade discussions had been for investors. dow is up 415 points s&p and nasdaq also posting gains of 1 % or 2%. >> good stocks trading europe, asian stocks, all posting gains. and emerging markets with the dollar at 97 lower on the day, seeing a strong come back here and up about 2.5% strategists across the street are cautious off ramp for deescalation

tensions the idea that china can change the economic model is hard to believe especially when it comes to ip theft. the 90-day truce we are seeing, caterpillar is getting an upgrade at bfa this morning. other name like boeing is caught in the cross hairs some big move there, take a look at agricultural commodity and ranging from soybeans the wheat. they're still down on the year in terms of stocks, induce rebound we are seeing. technology is a big factor in place here losing of 3% in the month of november, higher across the board and large skcap names trading with apple, microsoft and amazon is leading the chart. the question is whether longer term these stocks will continue

to move upside companies will high exposure to china though casinos and semiconductor and energy names also seeing big games. sectors that are moving higher on this u.s./china trade keeping a close eye on shares of marriott which traded down on 6% on friday on the data breach could marriott avoided this hack all together with tougher security measures? a number of senators from mark warner of virginia and chuck schumer calling for tougher data to reach penalties the financial impact is limited but the bigger question i play is the brand reputational risk that marriott could endure this was after all the world's largest hotel operator, clearly still a developing story >> carl, send it back to you >> let's get to the bond pit as

well with rick santelli at the cme in chicago >> one week of 10-yr shows you everything you need to know. we had our first low 3% since mid september. if you open up the chart, not only of course do we basically have a quarter point retracement of off what now stands just below a quarter. in front of a fed meeting we'll result in a quarter point tightening the pattern remains a bit weak for yields and many traders think we'll violate back below 3% as we close on friday the sort end of the curve, they're comping the two years back in september that you see on this chart. the only difference is there are sizable support in the low 280s. >> the yield curves have flatten

as we see it resurges. the drip, drip is more significant on long maturity chinese currencies, we continue to monitor what the faith of the dollar will be it reverses down to the level we have not seen since the weighing day of september even though light on details and psychological benefits of what's going on with china should be bearish notion it rebounded last week that the fed is more gradual in its approach you see on june 1st, we are hovering around 97 and several close around that level since june of 2017 traders will put a lot of

conference in the dollar should it be able to hold over the next level. >> carl, jim, david, back to you. >> it is good to have you back rick santelli in chicago as jp morgan says this morning, it has been reduced and dow is awfully close to 26-k. up 390 back in a minute

dow is at 350 on this first trading day of the month coming out of the g20 summit. some of the top-performing names on the s&p include wynn, amd and devon. we'll be back with stop trading in just a moment don't go away.

♪ ignition sequence starts. 10... 9... guidance is internal. 6... 5... 4... 3... 2... 1... ♪

good morning for faang components up across the board check out amazon with a 4% gang. >> they do know business in china. nike is what i want to talk about because there's a good piece by j.p. morgan saying field work says there's momentum this is a classic thing. if you feel like all things are great with china and we're going to keep making good deals, nike is a great stock to buy. even up here even up here they'll continue to try to fade apple and get it down so those

who like apple, buy it at the bell, not now. >> you mean closing bell >> yeah. i can't to say this, shorts are building an endless position in apple and they will get their heads handed to them like they would never, ever believe. ralph lauren up, they have big exposure to china manufacturing, i thought that quarter wasn't that bad don't get that, there's hatred for everything retail and boeing stays up because boeing is a winner good cash flow. >> what's tonight? >> a lot of people feel it's not too early to buy groupon and groupon is at three bucks and, frankly, we have to find out because at three bucks, there's a lot of things that are kind of an optionality. >> what about zenga? >> too early way too early. >> some of our inside jokes go

back so far -- >> people have no idea what we're talking about. >> that's probably the case more often than not. >> yellow ledbetter, daughter, alive, black -- >> betterman. >> i discovered them at the rock 'n roll hall of fame for two years ago. she likes carl here. she says i like carl that's what she told me. how about me what's the matter with liking me i like carl. >> hard to like you. >> she likes you. >> i am hard to like we had a couple fights she's been working as a general manager every night at longshoremen, she says she's sick of me what does that have to do with me >> doesn't have anything to do with you everything is good. >> see you tonight, "mad money" at 6:00 p.m. >> i do have a show. when we come back, stephen roch

roach. we'll get his perspective on this u.s./china trade truce with the dow up 329

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good morning welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintinilla with sara eisen and david faber of post 9 at the new york stock exchange the bulls have two big weights off their back with powell last week and the g20 over the weekend. now we have ism manufacturing. for that, we'll get to rick santelli rick, good morning. >> absolutely. construction spending coming up. this will be for the month of october. expecting the number near half of 1% higher we're down one tenth of one percent and we lost a tenth from unchanged to minus one-tenth as well minus 0.1 for both these months is now the lowest since june when it was down minus.7, so down .7. now for the november read on ism. chicago has been powerful so here we go it's out at 59.3

it's a solid number. much better than 57.5. sequentially it followsed e57.7 we had an august read 61.3 anything 60 or higher is tremendous and that 61.3 was the best read going back to 2004 so this is lofty we lost the 60 handle. the employment index jumped from 16.8 to 58.4 prices paid. wow, really laid back, from 71.6 all the way down to 60.7 and new orders, a nice move from 17.4 to 62.1 so we lost a little on the inflation read everything else looks sizable and here we sit, a few basis points above 3%. sara, back to you. >> a lot to digest, rick, thank you. overall headline, better manufacturing. rick santelli. our road map will start with

world markets surging. investors across the globe cheering the temporary trade truce between the u.s. and china. we have the details and analysis straight ahead. opec fracturing. one of its leading members say it is quitting oil up $2. we'll bring you up to speed. >> and remembering the life and legacy of america's 41st president, president george h.w. bush, passing away on friday he was 94. we'll speak to a former adviser of the president. investors cheering on the 90-day trade truce between the u.s. and china the u.s. agreeing not to raise tariffs while china agrees to purchase more agricultural products from u.s. farmers presidents trump and xi agreeing to cut import tariffs on american-made cars we have full team coverage of all this for you eamon javers is back from the g20 summit in buenos aires and phil lebeau is looking at the auto stocks which are having a

good day what do we know about the trade truce? >> this will give both sides political and economic breathing room because the administration is pulling away that thread of increasing the tariff rates on january 1. that will give time for more talks to continue. look at the bullet points of what we know they haven't put out a lot in writing officially so we're figuring it out as we go along the u.s. won't increase the tariff rates on january 1. the u.s. will hold off on additional $267 billion in tariffs that the president had been talking about so there's negotiations that will continue. the u.s. says there's a 90-day period for those talks to continue the chinese are silent on that point at this stage. the chinese are going to purchase an unspecified amount of products in the united states the u.s. side gives a list of industries that those products will be purchased from not clear how much we are

talking about. secretary mnuchin was on cnbc. i had a chance to ask if they'll put out a document which lays out all of the specifics of what were agreed to here and he said no there's no plan to put a document like that out he told me the president wants a deal with the chinese over the course of the negotiating period so what we're dealing with is a situation where both sides agree the deadline coming up is too ominous and we'll kick the can down the road and see if they can get a bigger deal late inter2019. >> eamon, you were there how did you lead the body language, the choreography of everything, the president and who joined him from dinner give us the juicy details. >> it was a fascinating trip to

buenos aires and the president made a point to bring peter navarro to show the chinese -- as a show of strength that he was bringing his toughest china critic you see him next to john kelly, second in line there, the chief of staff so the president making a point to do that xi jinping and his delegation face to face with trump and his delegation that is president who likes to deal face to face. you've seen this reflected in his tweets saying this was a deal that was made president to president. that is important, that bilateral deal making between the two leaders face to face is important to this president. we'll see what their teams can execute over the coming weeks and months and whether or not the two leaders will sign off. >> big question mark eamon, thank you very much eamon javers back in d.c let's bring in phil lebeau >> this was announced by the president via twitter yesterday.

he sent out the following tweet and it's pretty straightforward. he says china has agreed to reduce and remove the auto tariffs of cars coming in from china to the u.s., that tariff is currently at 40%. theoretically -- and we haven't gotten details -- that would bring it back down to 15%, which is what it is for all other countries around the world sending vehicles into china. let's look at the european auto stocks bmw and daimler benefit the most out of any automakers in the united states in terms of building in the u.s. and shipping over there. each of them sending more than 80,000 vehicles. that's a huge export, all the suvs they're sending and the u.s. auto stocks, the one you want to focus on is tesla. we'll show you gm, ford and fiat chrysler but tesla gets 14% of its sales in china and china is the

largest ev market in the world it's the future of electric vehicles and if tesla were to sell its vehicles in china with a 40% tariff, it was killing sales over the last couple months this should help them until they get their plant built in shanghai and that's scheduled for late 2020. more likely 2021 by the time it's up and running so this is a huge boost for tesla we reached out to see if it has a comment regarding the change in the auto tariffs and they have said they have no comment at this point. guys, back to you. >> phil, thank you for that. phil lebeau in chicago here to discuss the market expectations and impact, stefan selig is former undersecretary of commerce for international trade and in dallas, burns mckinney, allianz's chief investment officer good to see you. walk us through how you read the tentative nature of the announcements. how normal is that >> i don't think one should have

expected a document, as eamon talked about or a fully fleshed-out deal in a dinner of 16 people, so we saw a standstill and the question will be when people come back there l there be substantial progress? 90 days is a tall order to get something done done given the complexity of these issues so we shouldn't get too far ahead of ourselves. >> what can you reasonably get done in three months >> for sure, the chinese can make commitments to buying a churl and other products for us but that doesn't address the issues we have with chin so will we get at the trade policy issues as opposed to more easier things to do around the

edges around the trade balance >> burns, talk about stefan's comments versus what the market expected going into this week and will expect in the weeks to come. >> the market's rallying sharply, not necessarily because this wasn't in line with the base case but rather the agreement they came to or the extension, it at least took off the catastrophic case off the table, that of a collapse in the talks. the best way to think about this is you have a c student that got a b-minus, with respect to trade. the president said this is a big win. he says a lot of things are big wins but he hits the nail on the head when he says three months is a short period of time and this was just an agreement to continue the discussions but at the same time stocks are rallying in the near term because it removed the worst-case scenario. >> mike, is it enough to get the year end so-called santa claus

rally? >> this is the third run since october we're getting at these similar levels of the s&p 500. i think the magnitude of the rally says more about how defensive people were and basically on friday people weren't all that defensive because we thought something like this would come out the market was up 5% last week so if you want to look in the context of the october/november correction was about many, many things, it was about oil crashing, it was about trade, it was about the fed, about credit issues, you've removed a couple of those for now and what's left and is that enough to get the market toward its highs? i don't know that it is. it's like trying a couple different medicines and seeing if the symptoms go away. >> these next three months will be filled with stories and headlines that move the market one way or the other what will you be focused on as

somebody who understands the inner workings of these deals that show either progress or lack thereof >> well, i think the administration has to get to consensus on what they're trying to achieve because it seems like it's still bifurcated between harder liners and folks looking to get to a deal are they going to speak with one voice? two is what is the nature of what we're asking for? is it just the reduction of the deficit or are we going after very, very specific issues that china may be able to deal with because there are some things that for sure are not going to be able to be accomplished in the near term and will be a much longer road. >> so you get an agreement that they will open up their markets structurally but not in 90 days. >> correct not in 90 days and take issues like overcapacity. the notion they'll close down dozens of steel mills in 90 days that are going to fundamentally address the issues we have in the global metals markets is

unrealistic so there will have to be commitments and reasonable timetables in order for them to achieve those commitments. >> burns, doesn't the very sort of risk-positive nature of this agreement so far allow normal season alty to play itself out in way that it's been suppressed over the past month or two >> i think what it in essence does more than anything -- and by kicking the can down the road it increases the levels of volatility we expect going forward so one of the things we've been telling our clients is that this is the type of market where you should look to places where you have earnings stability, like dividend paying stocks where you get stability rather than just the ups and downs that the more cyclical companies might in fact pay. >> mike. over the last two months when we've been talking about this selloff, the trade war was one

thing on the list. there were worries about higher interest rates and the fed and an economy slowing down and inflation picking up how far does this go to ale alleviate those concerns trade was up there. >> trade was one of those things i think this agreement to keep talking almost removes it as a catalyst we won't be talking about day-to-day moves as much with regard to trade. >> except if we have a nafta issue. that's a big trade issue. >> similar to nafta, we struck the deal, it was on paper, we knew there was an approval process but the market didn't trade off it so i think we're in something like that but nothing gets you out of the late cycle psychology nothing finishes off that idea that we have to see how much earnings estimates come down investors got defensive and cautious and that is goo through the end of the year in terms of backing a rally, but it doesn't necessarily get you out of the overall situation we were in which was how late are we in

the cycle. >> does this congress not pass this usmca >> who know. the president made the announcement which i think is the biggest trade risk in the market which is that if he does withdraw from nafta and if congress does not pass usmca, nafta part two, that could have a significant impact on the economy. >> doesn't that mean we default to regular nafta >> no. it means you default to pre-nafta. >> so that would be a problem? >> that would be a real problem. >> something else to watch thanks, guys, appreciate it very much the nation is remembering the life and legacy of george herbert walker bush, the 41st president passed away at his houston home at the age of 94. the president declared wednesday a national day of mourning the late president started his journey to the white house as a teenaged war hero. gabe gutierrez has that report >> reporter: from the heart of texas to the beaches of maine,

the tributes are mounting. >> i think he's one of the best we've ever had, really. >> reporter: final reparations now under way for the fond farewell to president george herbert walker bush. his dear friend and former chief of staff james baker visited him the day he died. >> and he looked up, he opened both eyes, he looked at me, he said "where we going?" i said "we're going to heaven, jefe." and i said "that's where i want to go. >> reporter: his last words, spoken to his son "i love you, too. >> the houston symphony paid tribute to his love of colorful socks. >> he would treat everybody in houston the same, with the same amount of respect. he loved houston >> reporter: former vice president dick cheney served as his defense secretary and says president bush led the charge as the cold war ended. >> not by brute force or threats, not by taking advantage

of dancing on the berlin wall as it came down it was masterfully handle. >> reporter: air force one will move his casket from houston to washington where it will lie in state at the u.s. capitol. he'll then be flown back to texas and buried at the presidential library and museum. ann boykin had been here before but today was different. >> it was tough. i thought of my dad. he lived a long life and accomplished a lot of great things it's kind of an end of an era. >> reporter: the era of the greatest generation gone but not forgotten. >> here's a live shot from houston where the president's remains will depart for washington on air force one. and we'll look at the president of george h.w. bush and speak with one of his advisers later this morning. crude prices jumping on this

trade news and a leading member of opec says they're out look at the top names on the p. dofade is in process we're up 286 alpha seems more elusive today. is it because so many go after it the same way, chasing after short-term returns? instead if getting caught up with the crowd, the investment managers at pgim take a long term view. uncovering opportunities for alpha across public and private markets, while anticipating unforeseen risk, has powered our rise to a top ten global asset manager. partner with pgim. the global investment management businesses of prudential financial, inc.

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time for our etf spotlight energy having a rough go with the vanguard energy etf down 11%. crude oil prices up after russia and saudi arabia agreed to extend production cuts still plenty of moving parts in the oil market qatar announcing plan to leave the opec consortium in january as the group gets ready to meet thursday weighing on this is j.p. morgan's let of research and strategy should oil be up and will be it up for more than one session >> i think so. clearly what we're noticing now is both president trump and prince mohammed bin salman have agreed at the high levels. so going into the opec meeting uncertainty has been removed so we are expecting a cut around

1.2 the in our balances for opec plus 150 to 170 for russia which is likely to help the balances get tighter and spovrlt prices, rebuild investor confidence which was lost in the last couple months after their commodities are out. in addition to that, the whole u.s./china trade truce is also supportive commodities but even oil for that matter. >> so is there a fair expectation that we won't revisit 50 bucks again >> we will, in fact. i think we are going to -- we are likely to see support from here onwards, especially in the next one or two months because opec got, along with the non-opec supporting countries, are only likely to help tighten the market in addition to what is likely to be positive sentiment in the market generally for commodities. so at j.p. morgan we do expect brent to go towards $70, towards the end of this year or early 2019 for that matter.

>> i know qatar is a marginal player and producer, but how big of a deal is it that they're walking away from opec after decades? does it suggest broader splintering or loss of power for the cartel >> i guess from the perspective of a country such as qatar leaving, especially a gcc player leaving, definitely brings into question kind of a crack into opec as a cartel but at the same time what we're ignoring is there have been more opec members who have been added on to this group in the last 18 months in addition to that you have had additional non-opec members being added to the whole opec plus group so let's not forget that yes, qatar leaving brings into question what's happening with opec right now and increases a little bit of uncertainty, although it's a small player, but let's not forget we have seen other players which have joined opec, opec plus in the last 18 months so we have to keep that in

balance when we view this. >> i wonder how much of this rally is about the trade truce between the u.s. and china there have been concerns about global demand and the global economy. does that give oil a boost this idea that the trade war won't get worse? >> yes, indeed when you look at oil prices, a lot of things have happened on the u.s./china trade war front with what was announced but on the oil front as well we have seen the opec plus announcements coming through so definitely you have had a picks which you are of two strong comments supporting oil i wouldn't just put it down on u.s./china trade war i think opec's statements were strong and brought back confidence in investor sentiment as well. looking at demand, we expect demand to slow down but more in 2019 but i think this short boost as

well as a return in production activity is getting better and this quarter and next quarter based on economist forecast we think we have a demand for supporting oil so prices should come under pressure anyway. >> to that point what is your expectation for additional marginal supply in '19? >> i think that's a valid and relevant question. what we are noticing is that one of 400 kbd increased in august month on month that we saw got reduced down to 130,000 barrels per day in september in the last monthly rate out we expect the production growth particularly but not just oil but the rest of the u.s. production growth under the current oil price environment but also completion rates slowing down is going to slow down significantly coming closer to month-on-month declines but that phenomenon

will be first half of '19. we expect completions would ramp up as a pipeline constraint removed so we see production growth for total crude and liquids and u.s. to 1.4 million but lower than, let's say 1.9 this year. >> thank you. >> my pleasure. as we head to a break, look at the major averages in rally mode nasdaq up 1.75% but we are off the highs of the day presidents trump and xi hit the pause button on the trade war. we'll talk about the implications, treasuries and dollar selloff and join the global risk-on rally "squawk on the street" will be right back

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dow is up 343. let's get to the cme group in chicago, check in with rick

santelli for santelli exchange rick >> i'd like to welcome my guest. thanks for joining me today. let's get right into it. last week, a couple of comments either from the vice chairman or the chairman, jay powell, really give the dollar a bit of a setback as potential aggressive tightening in 2019 might not materialize which dove tails with most sources i talked to. the second issue what's going on with china and the yuan with respect to the dollar. two big cross areas for foreign exchange explain the outcomes for us, mark. >> sure. i think last week the fed set up the possibility of a pause after the next rate hike in december and it's looking more likely we'll have a terminal fed funds rate between 2.5 and 3 at the most what's happened is we've had continued weakness in housing and then with the big selloff in oil in november you'll get a

softening in energy investment as well and housing and energy investment is 10% of 2 economy so that takes down the upside possibility for 2019 so then we look at what happened over the weekend, which i think is a big deal and i think the press stories are too negative about it. >> i couldn't agree more, mark continue. >> you had a leader-to-leader meeting and you had everyone in the room present to see what that agreement was so it increases the ability to implement that agreement when the hawks and doves are in the room together so this is a big event. to tie it back to the currency, the biggest risk for china is that if they had a big devaluation of their currency, capital outflow, it would reprice domestic real estate and could collapse their economy so their agreement to stabilize

their currency coming out of this does diminish the down side risk to the world as well. >> president bush 41, h.w. herbert walker, passed away and the country is mourning. i know in the early years of the george h.w. bush administration you were there do you have any significant stories you'd like to share? >> obviously a sad weekend when you lose a great man like that in my limited interaction, he liked to refer to himself as the former leader of the free world, often with humor but it's telling how he saw the job of president he saw america as a force for good and he was proud of his public service throughout his life and he's a great example for the rest of us >> i couldn't agree more i remember no new taxes read my lips when i was trading in the

pits in the late '80s, the churchill effect he marches the troop after what was a victorious gulf war only to lose the next election. they were complicated times. thank you for sharing your thoughts on the market and george herbert walker bush. >> rick, thank you let's get to contessa brewer for a cnbc news update. here's what's happening right now. more anti-government protests taking place in paris as ambulance workers took to the streets to complain about changed working conditions in the wake of violent anti-government protests that rocked the city over the weekend. qatar says it will withdraw from opec in january. its energy minister made that surprise announcement today in doha the exit will mark the first time a middle east nation left the organization since 1950. with one child is dead and 20 others hospitalized after a bus crashed on an arkansas highway. the bus was carrying a youth football team traveling from texas to memphis when it left

the roadway and overturned the national menorah was lit for the first night in chanukah during a ceremony near the white house. in his chanukah message to americans, president trump honored the victims of the october shooting at a pittsburgh synagogue in october that's our cnbc news update. back to you guys. >> contessa, thank you very much. when we come back, remembering the life and legacy of george herbert walker bush. the 41st president passed away at his houston home at the age of 94. we'll be joined by one of his advisers, ed rogers, in a moment place, the xfinity xfi gateway.

and it's strengthened by xfi pods, which plug in to extend the wifi even farther, past anything that stands in its way. ...well almost anything. leave no room behind with xfi pods. simple. easy. awesome. click or visit a retail store today. welcome back to "squawk on the street," i'm sara eisen with carl quintinilla and david faber at post 9 from the new york stock exchange the dow was up more than 400 points, it's still up 354, digesting the trade truce. we're also watching a live picture from husz on the, texas,

where the ceremonies have officially begun four days of mourning for president george h.w. bush he is being carried into thearse where he will be transported and then he will be on his final flight to air force one later this evening. >> he will be eulogized by president george w. bush wednesday at the national cathedral in washington, d.c one of the events in what will be a week-long proceeding until he is taken back to texas for burial it's been 12 years since we last laid a president to rest so it's had a lot of aftereffects, the government, of course, markets will be closed on wednesday. we won't hear from powell as we were planning to hear on the hill on wednesday and then nyse

will be closed and all the crazy political rhetoric we're used to will be put on hold for a while. >> the honorary pallbearers are members of bush's secret service detail and also accompanying his remains will be members of the family and also apparently sully bush, the late president's labrador retrieve service dog. >> joining us, two member who knew the president personally. ed rojjegers, former minnesota congressman, winwebber, a member of the congress during the time of the president's administration dan quayle had an op-ed today the journal talking about his line "be prepared and be loyal." the theatrics of politics ran

against his nature and upbringing a lot has been said about how he managed to mix tenacity and competitiveness with grace. >> that's very well said the interesting thing about bush he came into the presidency at the dawn of something of a new political era. the era referred to as the permanent campaign where there was no hiatus between campaigning and governing. and bush didn't like that, that didn't suit him. he thought of politics or at least campaign politics as a seasonal business. and that being a gentleman was almost impossible during the course of a campaign so he thought campaigns should be brief, they were what they were but they were a means to govern and the notion that you would be campaigning all the time throughout the duration of your tenure in office was offensive

to him he wanted campaigns to be short, brief, get to the point and get them over with so he had people like lee at water and roger ailes, knew they were necessary but the campaign part was not something george bush relished he was not a campaign animal. >> it strikes me the news of the day today and then we cover the markets and the economy is about china and the historic meeting between president xi and president trump. i went back over the week end to look at how chinese state media covered the passing of president bush, glowing. one of the papers called him a statesman of vision and president xi made a point to recognize the passing. they considered him a friend can you talk about his legacy in opening diplomatic relations and his own lasting legacy in china? >> i think the contributions of

george h.w. bush to foreign policy and shaping the world we live in today can hardly be overstated as ambassador or liaison to china, he initiated much of the improvement that has gone forward for several decades and as president of the united states he both presided over the disillusion of the soviet union and the liberation of kuwait from saddam hussein. these are massive historical accomplishments but as we said, this was a president that didn't like to talk in hyperbole about himself so maybe it's time for the rest of us to talk in hyperbole about his accomplishments. >> to that point, evan thomas who ran "newsweek" or helped run "newsweek" in the late '80s and they did that cover story "fighting the whim factor" saying how wrong it was to say that

he said bush was anything but a wimp and we are take stock of the decisions that were politically damaging but smart in the long run. >> people mistook his civility for weakness and they were wrong, he was a really strong man. >> it was a remarkable time to be president think of the bad things that didn't happen. the transformation from the cold war to a new world order the transformation, he was the last world war ii participant to be a president modern china emerged during the george bush presidency he was president during transformational epoch changing eras that could have gone wrong in so many ways but he was quiet, he was dignified. i remember very well during the campaign cycle that wimp cover and the damage it did for him.

but you know who never complained about it was him. he just shrugged it off. if it bothered him, i never knew it. >> worth noting. a life of national service the likes of which we don't often see whether it's war hero, ambassador to china, cia director, vice president and congressman. it goes on and on, few can match that in terms of their willingness to give back to their count. >> i and it makes it all the more remarkable give than remarkable career, he never forgot the personal touch. no personal relationship was too small. i remember i helped out at the beginning of his administration with one of his cabinet nominees and he called me as i was about to go home to minnesota for christmas to thank me. he didn't need to do that. he was the incoming president of

the united states but that story was repeated hundreds and hundreds of times. he was in the biggest issues of our day but he never forgot the people around him and always had time to show personal attention. >> and it's the personal touch that gave george bush his political base he'd only been elected to congress, never anything else. just held that seat for a couple terms but it was the personal touch, the accumulation of friends and colleagues that he picked up at every step of the way, everyday. >> it was the personal touch that gave him the political base he had and the resiliency he had when tough times came. >> as we watch that motorcade make its way to the airport and then, of course, on its way to washington, d.c. on air force one obviously hugely appropriate respectful emotion to allow that

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to retail. finding such opportunities for alpha is the true value of active investing. and around the world, you have a partner in that pursuit. pgim: the global investment management businesses of prudential. stocks are raleigh on news of a trade truce between president trump and xi jinping over the weekend after months of tit for tat tariffs, president trump promising not to raise the rates for the next 90 days joining us now ambassador carla hills, the former u.s. trade representative under president george h.w. bush nice to see you and good to have you today. we've been watching this ceremonial procession of the late president's casket being transported to ellington airport on its way to the capitol aboard air force one. your thoughts after being part of his administration during that critical period of

negotiating nafta? >> well, he was a great president. he brought to his office enormous experience. the ambassador to the united natio nations, our enjoy to china and head of the cia, no one brought that amount of experience. yet he was a modest man. he was so easy to work with and he made a real contribution to our nation. >> we have been talking about those contributions around foreign policy and i mention nafta because he did sign it and you were there as part of those negotiations just this weekend president trump signing the usmca, the nafta update i'm wondering how you viewed that over the week end that we learned of the president's death. >> well it was time to upgrade nafta because it's 25 years old and we needed to add provisions that dealt with the digital

trade and the many changes that have occurred in the 21st century. i hope that we can keep the three partners together. we have synchronized supply chains that make us the most competitive region in the world. our trade has quadrupled with the economic we are amazing as the north america region. >> but there are questions about whether congress is going to sign off on this new agreement and what happens if they don't would we revert as stephon selig told us earlier to pre-nafta arrangement which is could be detrimental to american business. >> i think if the president pulls out of the north american free trade agreement and we don't get approval of the new

agreement it will be devastating to our economy and reputation and moi hope is that we get approval i would not recommend the president give notice of pulling out. he will initiate a huge legal >> speaking of potential trade agreements, the next 90 days will prove to be dramatic. what are you are expectations given the complexity of the issues that will be dealt with and the short time frame they're hoping to come to some agreement? >> i hope we can use the 90 days constructively and that our

rhetoric is more to finding a path through the thicket i think we should join hands with our allies that suffer from the same problems that we allege with respect to china's economy, and whether it is forced transfer or percentage caps on investment, the fact is we want national treatment and nondiscrimination which are basic precepts of the world trade organization that china adhered to in 2001 and i think with europe, canada, mexico, japan, south korea representing a majority of the global trade, approaching china, that that gives us a lot of leverage and that we should move forward with our friends and by the way, i underscore the fact that if china moves towards the market in ways that we are recommending, it will be good for china. it will enhance its growth it really is a win-win

opportunity for both of us >> finally, ambassador, we got a communique that some said was somewhat of a victory for multi lateral cooperation. i wonder if you feel the same way coming out of argentina this weekend. >> i'm delighted that we got a pause. i think that the communique from the g20 was also a plus. so i'm glad they had the meeting. we should have high level meetings for issues that effect all of us regularly. we have globalized, by pieces of equipment here, there, and everywhere, sell our produce abroad, and we have the opportunity to work together constructively today, we're celebrating president george herbert walker bush and he reached out, he talked about the fact that we want to be a gentler, kinder

nation, that has the respect of the world. and he made a difference by reaching out not with harsh rhetoric but with an open hand, trying to make good things happen >> ambassador carla hills, thank you for tying that together for us former u.s. trade representative under president george h.w. bush quick programming note as we take you to break. tomorrow, wilfred frost is live from the goldman, sachs conference and will be joined by tim sloan. that's not all on "squawk alley," bank of america ceo brian moynihan will join wilfred speaking of "squawk alley," jon fortt is in san francisco and has a look at what's coming up in a few minutes from now. jon? >> that's right. major indexes are off highs, china connected stocks in particular are higher this

morning. we will check into those, including apple, and look at what might be coming next. that's coming up on "squawk alley. (toni vo) 'twas the night before christma,

and all thro' the house. not a creature was stirring, but everywhere else... there are performers, dancers, designers the dads and the drivers. there are doers of good and bringers of glee. this time of the year is so much more than a bow and a tree. (morgan vo) those who give their best, deserve the best. get up to a $1,000 credit on select models now during the season of audi sales event. welcome back to "squawk on the street." stocks are holding on to gains this morning, off the best

levels of the day, honing in getting a bump from the trade truce is technology. a bit of relief after the group was under a lot of pressure caught in the cross hairs of u.s., china tension. sara, back downtown to you >> trade related sectors all moving up today. major averages are off the highs. later today, a great interview. former fed president will be on "closing bell" talking economic growth and former morgan stanley agent stephen roach with perspective on the u.s., china trade truce. long time china expert "squawk alley" starts in a moment don't go away.

so they say that ai will put the future in the palm of our hands. that's great. but right now you've got your hands full with your global supply chain. okay, france wants 50,000 front fenders by friday.

that's why you work with watson. i analyzed thousands of contracts and detected a discrepancy. it works with procurement systems you already use to help speed up distribution without slowing down your team. frank, tell fred full force on those french fenders. fine. fine. fantastic. for ai that knows your industry, choose watson. hello! the best ai for the job. good monday morning. welcome to "squawk alley." carl quintanilla with morgan brennan at post 9 of new york stock exchange jon fortt in san francisco at our bureau one market. we begin with the markets indeed, major indexe