allow time to reaccelerate another name to look at would be starbucks. a name that easily takes out 70 bucks. >> can i quickly -- >> quickly. >> correct something the spin-off from trinity from alcoa. >> okay. power lunch starts now >> i'm melissa lee stocks rallying for now. will this kick off a true santa claus rally? the two sides hitting the pause button on tariffs. there's a long way to go on a real agreement the big issues still stand in the way. in one area, there was a true deal tackling the opoid crisis. the white house actually mentioned it first in the press release ahead of trade what that means for the american economy. power lunch starts right now

>> welcome i'm dominic chu. stocks rallying. we are well off the highs of the day. the dow's up more than 440 points earlier on. oil surging. talks about supply cuts. and a big shake-up at opec more straight ahead. shares of cronos rallying. altria in talks to buy the cannabis company more on this developing story coming up. the battle to be the biggest, it is heating up. microsoft and apple have been going back and forth lately in apple cap. now amazon is on the rise. it's now the second biggest company in terms of market cap after apple. in that one point bill, amazon was the biggest publicly traded company in the world over this last half hour >> let's get to the big story driving told's rally that of course is this pause in

the trade war, the trade truce now to the floor of the stock exchange, trackingi inwhere the money has been going while amman is in dk, just back from the summit. he's covering the fallout. tell us about the rally. >> it's losing steam a number of traders are trading this release rally with a certain level of skepticism. i spoke to art cashin on the floor here and he says the rebound does not look promising. first, we basically halved our game second, a lot of what we're seeing today he says is short covering third, the russell 2000, the small cap index, is not participating in this relief rally as some of the major markets up only about half a percent but still stuck in correction territory goldman throwing water on the trade truce. warning that finding a mutually agreeable compromise that leads to a rollback in tariffs will be

challenging. the mere fact both the united states and china have agreed to communicate is helping global stocks and emerging markets outperform the gain of over 2.5% overnight and trade sensitive sectors are also moving up upgrading caterpillar, due in part to weakening trade essentials deere and boeing, up other pockets of this market, semiconductors, chinese tech name, also getting a lift here the big question is whether this is only short-lived. >> all right, thank you. she mentioned stocks higher on this trade truce but president trump's description of the trade deal doesn't match the official white house version. let's get to amman in washington with the details. >> reporters here at the white house have been trying to pry out additional details of what

exactly what was agreed to he was briefing reporters a short time ago he was asked about the president's tweet last night in which the president suggest the the chinese are going to lower their auto tariffs the president didn't say what they'll be lowered to. which is important larry kudlow was asked what is that number going to be, what commitment did the chinese give you? he didn't provide a figure, simply saying he expected the chinese would lower their tariffs but didn't have a number in terms of where that's going to go ultimately here's what we know about the deal so far. take a look at our bullet points u.s. is agreeing not to go ahead with the rate. u.s. will hold off on the additional $267 billion in tariffs. negotiations simply continue the u.s. says that's a 90 day

period the chinese side doesn't emphasize that 90 day period so we're trying to understand why there's that discrepancy between the two sides on exactly how long this is going on. the chinese are going to public an unspecified amount of product from the u.s not clear exactly what the commitment is there in terms of dollars or cents and the chinese have promised the white house has to track down on fan tanle sales. that's so important in light of the epidemics surrounding opioids. that's the outline of what we know coming out of saturday night. a lot of the specifics still have yet to be penned in steven mnuchin suggested that this isn't really the real deal. the real deal is still to come in about 90 days time. >> the president has made clear

there's a pause but if we don't have an agreement, the tariffs will increase and he can contemplate moore. there was a genuine offer from president xi to president trump to make sure they opened up their markets to u.s. companies. this will be the biggest single opportunity for economic growth for u.s. companies and u.s. workers. i think this is a big difference >> you hear the treasury secretary putting it in sort of conditional terms. he'shopeful we can turn this into a real agreement. it's not a real agreement now. that's good enough for this white house. they're declaring victory in terms of the dinner. they're declaring it a big success over the weekend now the hard work of negotiating begins >> the bush family's on the way to washington, d.c. to bring the body of the former president back where it will lie instate beginning at 7:00 tonight. what's the mood in washington as

tributes pour in >> i choose the word reflective. a lot of people think back to that era i just saw over at blair house just around the corner from where i'm standing, the presidential guest house, they're loading suitcases into the house. presumably that's for members of the bush family who will stay there. you think about the early 1990s and that was an era in which there was still that specter of bipartisanship democrats came to a republican white house just for drinks an to socialize after work. they would speak to each other they would co-sponsor legislation together, democrats and republicans would. it's just a much, much different era in this town that's what a lot of people have been talking about today the split now so much deeper than it was back even when george h.w. bush was president with the fed chairman power's comments last week on rates,

then you get the trade troops for the next three months, is the santa claus rally in effect? joining us right now, the chief investment strategy with alliance global investors. liz young is senior investment strategist with mellon investment management. clearly the 25% tariff was factors into the market already. when you take that off the table, at least temporarily, we get this relief rally. what happens then? >> i think two very important meals in the last week one was the jerome powell lunchen and then the dinner between trump and xi they actually helped climb walls of worries that were in place. so i think jerome powell, we did see a real change in tune of stating close to neutral now quite a bit away from neutral or the opposite of that,

quite away -- absolutely i think from the trump/xi dinner you also saw really the markets case was a 25% increase and now we're getting the 10% increase we think the markets in october kind of sold off we saw rotation defensively. i think we're set up nicely for a nice year end rally. i think we are going to be stepping back and thinking about where we are in the economy more broadly. >> that will depend on the details of whatever this truce holdings >> the important part, it was an agreement to negotiate, a pause. not anything definitive in stone. i think it's still a lot of lip service at this point. president trump has proven that his threat to impose tariffs is not lip service. i wouldn't be surprised to see it heat up again >> let's follow up on this right now, the dow was up 432. or thereabouts

it's up about 250 at this point or 1%. is that to say after everything was done at 320, the response in the market was 1%, what does that say about what happened >> i think we overshot in this rally earlier today and actually wish i was on at 9:00 a.m. because i said that, then we watched it come back down. >> so noted. >> everybody got so positive about it because it was a removal of a risk. then you get realistic about did we take the risk off the table everybody's got different details of how they thought this all worked out there's a lot of question marks. >> we're only back to the levels we saw at the beginning of november you really put into perspective. you look at today's action and what caught my attention was a 10-year yield going below 3% what does that tell you about the markets perceiving the economy? >> generally it can be healthy if you have the growth supporting it. the markets can be saying our

longer term athlete for growth is slowing i think that's what we're seeing in terms of the fed raising rates. the removal of tx ax reform stimulus, increase in margin pressures, a global growth picture that's slowing as well all these pressures are what the markets have to face in 2019 that's why i think it could be a little bit of a modest return. >> to your point, melissa, the yield kerve as measured by the spread between 10-year and 2-year down 18 percentage points the lowest since 2007. we've got a flattened yield curve. so what does that say? liz, as you talk about the financials, is that reason to worry about the health of this market and whether it can sustain into 2019? >> i think 2019 is going to feel a lot worse than it actually ends up being. we're seeing low single digit returns for the year

we might get to november and think it should be negative. 2019 is going to have a lot more spikes in volatility which to investors is probably going to feel very hot and cold throughout the year. especially if we have a yield curve that inverts there's debate over what that means. does it have meaning because it's so manipulated? when it inverts it doesn't predict another recession for six to 12. we think the fed goes again in december we think it might pause in 2019. that would be an interesting experience i think for all of us usually the fed gets the memo last that the economy is slowing and they tighten one to two many times. >> well, interesting times will continue, that's guaranteed. good to see you both, thank you for joining us the white house's version of what was agreed to, very different than what the chinese

are saying the big differences between the two and what this tariff pause means for the american manufacturing industry and american farmers as well plus, it is december it's usually the slowest time of the housing market but that's flipped around why this could now actually be the best timto be uy a house find out that's coming up on the show

breaking news out of

washington a can being kicked down the road again. >> congress will vote government spending through december 31st the deadline for congress to approve a bill to keep the lights open in the government had been december 7 but now that deadline has been disrupted by the funeral arrangements for president george h.w. bush now, congress can approve this continuing resolution by a voice vote expected to happen some time this week. again thashg deadlit deadline pk to december 31st >> stocks rallying on the back of a truce in the trade war. the white house and china both releasing statements but both putting very different spins on this meeting. cnbc's taking a closer look at the chinese response >> chinese and american

negotiators are now expected to meet in the coming weeks to work out unresolved issues. a regular press briefing, the foreign ministry said the economic teams would work towards removing all tariffs as expected by president trump and president xi it is one outcoming played up in washington, but not mentioned by the white house. from the white house readout, the talks will there's what the u.s. feels are china's unfair trade practices. china hadn't acknowledged that it engages in these practices. and those terms like forced technology transfers are barely mentioned in the state media here the possibility that the tariff could rise to 25% have also been played down. the state press says the discussions instead will focus on opening up china's markets and boosting imports based on the needs of the chinese market and its people the different interpretations are raising questions as to just how much the two sides can

achieve if they don't see eye to eye on what the problems are some other updates on the trade deal, qualcomm dismissed the idea the takeover could be revived. and on president trump's tweets on car tariffs, the foreign ministry said the two sides reached mutual agreement in areas like tariffs but didn't get any detail where the two sides do see eye to eye, the meeting was a success. one executive said, at least we're not in a cold war, not yet. cnbc business news, beijing. >> well, a 90 day pause but no real agreement there it are d, there are diffe. joining us now is the president of the national associate of manufacturers. and the head of research tragedy and operations at the eurasia group. both to have you both. jay, you sound skeptical isn't even a detant a move in

the right direction? >> i think it's good i'm glad to see this type of progress it is interesting as your reporter noted that some of the real issues that have concerned manufacturers for years, intellectual property theft, forced transfer of data, those types of noncompetitive policy are also simply not sustainable in the eyes of manufacturers, so we're very pleased that the administration is hopefully we think making progress on these issues, even if the chinese is not willing to admit it. >> should we be surprised there are two different interpretations? the chinese president has to go home and make the case he came away from this meeting strong as well so perhaps not a surprise he's not touting any demands of our president has mentioned as wins he's got to come away looking good to his own people.

>> i think also that the differences in the states that came out from both sides is due to the fact that those statements were put together within days of that meeting. usually it takes about a month, if not more, time for both sides to hammer out a statement. the differences between the two is not a surprise. we have a crunch period. 90 days is not a lot of time to address some industry and trade practices that have been in the relationship for years and we saw today the announcement from the white house that light highser will be leading the knee gosh yaxs from the u.s. side what we can expect there is he will be focused on getting concede actions from the chinese rather than continuation of statements or continuation of china offering to buy more goods without actually addressing the real structural concerns that are at the heart of the

investigation. >> we're asking the chinese to change a behavior that's been going on for decades that has just bedeviled so many sectors of the united states economy what is the quid pro quo what do we have to offer in exchange >> we have our market. i mean, we are the most consuming nation in the world and china wants to be able to sell to us we have a lot ofproductings that they would like to bring into their country as well we live in a global economy. but we also need to make sure we have rules of the road it was one of the biggest mistakes made in the late 1990s when we adopted permanent trade relayings with china the rules were not set in stone. and we're starting to see the consequences now i think intellectual property, which is vital to american

ingenuity and innovation in manufacturing has to be the cornerstone of rules we adopt for the future it is the basis for manufacturing success in the united states. >> so jay brings up a number of great points you laid out some concerns from a trade standpoint with china. so take us through as an adviser, if you were advising our team here in the united states about how to make progress on this front in the coming 90 days, what are the keys we have to focus on to get a deal done? even though we know it's going to take time >> i would say get the right players in the room and focus on those core concessions in the 301 investigation that the u.s. team can sell to china as income china's own domestic reform interest this is going to be a hard sell because if anything what we've seen from president xi jinping since the trade confrontation has ramped up is not so much an

apparent willingness to make concessions on the industrial policy issues that he himself has put together and he himself believes is critical to china's own economic transformation. so you've got to make the case to xi that these reforms will actually up like greater value for china's own economy over the long run the key question is will president xi relinquish the kind of state control over china's economy that is necessary for some of those reforms to be pushed through. >> thank you both. appreciate it. jay timmons. and meredith sumpter, at the eurasia group. >> well, the first monday of december, and contrary to popular belief, this month could actually become the best time to buy a house. we'll explain when we come back. shoes, s & he's got wide feet. & with edge-to-edge intelligence you've got near real time inventory updates.

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they dropped back slightly last week, but then started climbing friday higher rates had buyers out in chicago this weekend feeling a little more motivated. >> i see more people buying now because they're afraid rates will be higher in 2019 >> and that is the expectation in addition, the past few years have been very competitive pricewise because of low supply. but prices are starting to ease up because of higher rates and more supply. add that to this fun fact, homes sold in february, which were likely deals signed in december and january, have a median sale price about 18% less than the market's peak in june historically and it's 21% lower in december than any other month so there is less competition on the downside for buyers, december has the fewest new listings of any month. that's a plus for sellers because there's less competition

from your neighbors. >> so this is sort of an anomaly here because of the timing of rate increases and the slowdown in prices and all kinds of things that have been going on with the housie ining industry, right? brother just looking at an anomaly. >> right, it's the perfect storm that you had this crazy competitive market, you had very, very critically low supply now you're seeing more supply. and you're seeing mortgage rates go up at the same time all of that together makes actually this month not a terrible time and we don't have any snow, not a lot yet. >> those realtors planning those vacations to florida this december, stay on the ob thank you. dom. >> we're going to get now emon jabbers at the white house >> larry kudlow, the national

economic counsel director at the white house, just wrapping up with reporters, providing us more clarity on what was agreed to saturday night. one thing folks in washington assumed wallace the 90 day clock for these started on saturday night. kudlow says that's not true. it starts on january 1 so people assumed we had two months after january 1 in reality, we have three months after january 1 before any of those tariff threats kick in again. another thing the president said in a tweet last night was the chinese have agreed he said to lower their tariffs which is currently 40% on u.s. cars going into china kudlow was asked he said we don't have a specific agreement. he said he expects the tariffs to go to zero eventually we don't have a specific agreement with the chinese in terms of what tariff number

they're going to on cars i think that's fairly significant. he said we don't yet have a specific agreement on that but i will tell you as an involved participant we would expect those rates to go to zero. so kudlow suggesting that we the president said there's an agreement on tariffs with the chinese, that number's not pinned down now. >> this is just one of many differences between what the president has said or what the white house has said the other disagreement was the amount of goods china would purchase in the chinese statement, there was no mention of a dollar amount and kudlow had said something to the tune of $1 trillion >> that's right, yes, i was there when he said that. >> is there an agreement on that >> no. >> okay, so that's what he means by ballpark. >> he threw out the $1 trillion number but he said that's going to depend on the demand side in china, the strength of the

relative economies and didn't provide a number of years over with that trillion dollar figure would apply. there's been a little confusion in the past couple of hours of who is going to lead these talks going forward from the administration the u.s. trade representative has been designated. larry kudlow earlier steered us away from that idea. and one person is in charge, other than the president, on this conference call kudlow did say lighthighser will be lead being the talks. that seems to be getting more clear in terms of the arrangement on the staff side of who's actually running it. >> oil is surging on the back of the truce with china but a lot of other talk of supply cuts and qater is leaving opec. what it all means. as we head out, take a look at the rally.

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here's your news update. president trump has appointed u.s. trade representative robert lighthizer to oversee the trade talks with china trump and chinese president xi agreed to hold off on new tariffs during talks in argentina saturday one child killed at least 45 others injured when a charter bus carrying a youth football team from tennessee rolled off an interstate off-ramp and overturned. we don't have information on what caused the crash. ending months of speculation,

louisiana senator john kennedy announced he won't win against incumbent senator john edwards in 2019. now scrambling for a contender the announcement came as a complete surprise. if your holiday wish list includes an xbox, one, you are in luck. microsoft is launching a limited time sale that cuts the price by 50 bucks the company is also cutting $10 off the price of some wireless controllers and you can get $50 off any xbox game pass a lot of xbox. that's the news update this hour >> i think it's microsoft.com now. >> i've already got one. >> elon musk space x launched a reusable rocket. the rocket will carry 64 small satellites into polar orbit after lifting off from vandenberg air force base in california the rocket will attempt to land on a drone ship in the pacific

ocean. >> down to a science now hold our breaths on the launch then the landing. >> the landing was the most impressive part. we see rocket launches for decades now but the idea you can have something come back and land right on an "x" where they were supposed to >> right >> that changed the game right there. okay latest space x launch is on the way. let's get a check on the markets. major indexes up about 1% after president trump and chinese president xi called that cease-fire in the trade war. we're off session highs. the dow was up about 440 earlier. now we still have decent gains but only half of what they were on the open this morning breaking news, julia, what's going on >> disney announcing more rigorous performance

requirements for bob eyinger to earn his full equity award 52% of shareholders rejected an executive compensation plan that would have given him up to $100 million in a ditidditional compensation now total shareholder return has to be in the 56th percentile that's up from 50% having to perform in the 50% for the s&p 500. the total limit maximum for him is 125% of that compensation, down from 150% previously. that compensation is nearly $938,000 that's the target number it raises the requirements for what eiger has to accomplish the board saying the more rigorous formula underscores mr. eiger's confidence the

company will generate significant value for share shoulders. >> public companies certainly under more scrutiny for executive compensation thank you for that update. it's not just socks pushing higher today, we've got oil pushing higher talks of supply cuts and qatar saying it's leaving opec what does it mean for prices our guest is a cnbc contributor. let's handicap this. we've got production cuts maybe agreed upon later on this week by opec plus qatar leading opec alberta, canada's richest oil producing province, cutting back oil production what is the force behind why we're seeing the price action today? >> i think oil got caught up in the gem risk on sentiment from

around the world there's no question about that oil beaten down in the run-up to that, partly because oil gets hit pretty hard in these trade wars any relief from that helps us get higher certainly the qatar news is -- it was worrisome for the market. it was endemic of what's happening with saudi arabia and its most immediate neighbors and closest family the gulf cooperation council is made up of qatar now saudis aretalking about building a canal that will physically remove qatar from the saudi arabia countryland it justs out like a peninsula, like a thumb, and they want to cut it off you're not going to -- you have to call into question what kind of cooperation we're going to get. will we put the band back together again like november 2016 >> ultimately, from that standpoint, is it generally

saying this is going to be bullish or bearish for oil, given the cracks we're seeing all over the oil producing world? >> this is look like a countertrend rally to me there's some hedging already by the russians in particular about wanting to cut or how much do they want to cut both russia and saudi arabia have boosted production tremendously to record levels. so what baseline are they talking about cutting from if they're cutting $1 million from where they are now, that's not going to do a darn thing >> sounds like you think opec is going to be a nonevent >> actually -- there's a chance -- >> -- help enough with oil >> i think it's a situation where it has a potential to fall apart. and get some of the -- >> you mean the meeting or the cartel >> the outcome of the meeting will be seen as opec falling apart until they can get pushed back together by lower prices.

>> is that what he's seeing? is that the importance of qater? they only produce 600,000 barrels a day. >> they've been a meet yater of back stops for saudi arabia. they're also at odds with them now. >> the saudis don't want to carry the whole burden they don't want to carry the bulk of the cutbacks so they are going around, asking all the other countries to contribute and right now there's a lot of jealousy towards saudi arabia because they've ramped up so much and if the saudis aren't going to get the cooperation -- >> we come out of opec and you think the thing is falling apart, ways the downside to oil? >> i do think the saudis and russians will be scared enough by a breakdown they'll try to revisit the issue. >> 48 to 42? that's when you reach a trouble point for high yields. >> yes >> and just shell producers in general. >> they'll not get any cooperation really so the only thing they can do is force them out of business, get

the caps to be reined in the only way for them to get our guys to cooperate is squeeze them practically out of business that's the potential here if we don't get real cooperation i think there's no question about right now. >> high drama this week. so now we have opec -- >> high drama. >> thank you so much >> as we mentioned, oil, stocks are higher let's check the bond market. rick santelli tracking the action 10-year below, 3, that's a big headline. >> yes, 3's a big headline look at the interday 2.82% yield. look at 5s you have a logjam on the short end of the yield curve everybody's looking at 10s to

2s i get it 16ish, 17. takes you back to 2007 the point is, where is the neutral rate the fed knows a good way to shadow box where it is monitor the yield curve. this is an important development. everything is roadblocking in the short end. as to melissa's comment, here's the 10-year note yields. many believe that as the market rebounded with the chinese headlines, yields would rebound. that is a finite rally in yields what is the 10-year looking at it's position. you remember all the target for 10-year note yields would be they're way up tough the outside. this is the response probably last the rest of this year the big question is how it comes in 2019. back to you. >> so this is not the market trying to forecast a slower economy in some way? this is more positions having to

be unwound in some cases >> i would think it makes the most sense especially mario's throwing his hands up on qe at the end of this year. one would think it would be the upside >> all right, rick, thanks, as always soybean prices spiking after china agreed to start buying again. the threat of tariffs still there. we'll talk to one american farmer and about his concerns about the year ahead power lunch back in two minutes.

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steve mnuchin earlier today. of course president trump tweeted earlier today saying farmers will be a very big and fast beneficiary of our deal with china so how are farmers reacting to it joining us on the cnbc news line, ryan peterson is a farmer. he's vice president of the north dakota soybean growers association. let me ask you, as the president and white house have said, the chinese intend to start buying substantial agricultural product from the united states immediately. do you have anything to sell them >> we do we have some soybeans, that is for sure >> they were a major soybean purchaser before the tariffs went in so we suspect they're looking for soybeans currently

>> you have very -- you, meaning youfarmers, have very specific time lines you have to meet, whether it's planning your crop, planting your crop or harvesting where are you now as it pertains to planning for next year, not knowing what the tariff situation is going to be >> exactly i call them our decision windows. what are we going to do with the crop at harvest? that window has come and gone. a lot of us have had to store more soybeans then we had planned. then it's really in february and march. the soybeans are selling, but we can't guarantee as much revenue. >> all right. >> of soybeans, so that will be a really key time.

and then the course, once spring comes, once we put the seeds in the ground, then it doesn't matter what the market does for then, they're out for that growing year we're committed to the crop in the ground. >> have you been - i know that it has been a short time frame we've been working with you, but have you been able to think about buying other buyers if the chinese decide not to buy anymore in. >> europe has substantially increased their purchase of soybeans, but that doesn't come anywhere close to filling the void that china would have bought our problem is we are as far from europe as we can get as as close to china so the basis side, we've really been hurt. so that is where we are more susceptible to this than rest of

the country. >> we wish you well. thanks for joining us. >> thank you part of the trade talks with china involve tackling america's opoid crisis, china agreeing to crack down on fentanyl exports specifically the labor force we'll take a closer look next. place, the xfinity xfi gateway.

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leave no room behind with xfi pods. simple. easy. awesome. click or visit a retail store today. most of the attention was on trade, but the u.s. and china agreed on opoids it is not just a health epidemic the opoid crisis is impacting the health of the economy. joining you also now is the senior policy analyst at the federal reserve bank of cleveland. kyle, great to have you with us. >> thanks for having me. >> we've heard about the i pamps indirect indirectly is there is a sense as to how many people the opoid crisis is taking out of the workforce? this has been a major impact >> in terms of overall numbers,

it is not clear, but whether someone is likely to participate in the xhid any is outhe economs >> and is there increasing amounts of data being collected? >> sure. so the data that we use is prescription opoid data and that is the best that we can get. >> okay. >> as far as increased data being collected, you are seeing a lot of different efforts around data collection and reportin reporting. >> but the cost to the u.s. economy overall is in the billions, correct? whether you measure it in terms of health care cost or lost productivity >> that's correct. some of the studies are generally in the billions, but i like to think that those

underestimate the impacts. >> and this is an epidemic that reaches every corner of this country. is this becoming a topic that is being brought up more and more >> it is definitely a topic that is on everyone's mind within the fed system we're seeing increase interests. >> and what are some of the these these about the opoid crisis and its impact on the labor market >> where you have high rates of opoid prescriptionprescriptionso see less for lower skilled and minority >> okay. kyle, thanks so much for joining us >> thanks for having me.

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welcome to "power lunch. we begin with the three big stories we're watching for you the markets trade and oil. stocks in rally modrally mode, session highs. and we begin this hour with some big news kelly evans formally joining the "power lunch" family >> thanks. five months at home with the little by makes this seem like a conversation >> hopefully this conversation

will be a little more he wivatsd >> that is true. tons to talk about the downpour up 441 points this morning. and three major averages up. seema mody has more. hello to everyone there. >> good to see you yes, you are right, we started the day on a strong note, but we let know a fluchl notes out number of no. remember the 25% tariff on $200 billion of chinese goods, that included technology products for now that has averted for three months and one of the reasons that we

saw tech stocks yu underperformg jerome powell of testifying on wegs and we have t wednesday and we have the opec meeting that kicks off as well and we are seeing a strength in energy stocks. brent crude back above $61 and the waeaker dollar is also stronger outside of trade, marriott giving back a bit here, losing 6% on friday on news of the massive data breach. back to you. >> yeah, schumer saying marriott

too ta should take the call >> and also mark warner and others saying huge privacy laws as well as perhaps maybe marriott so pay for customers passpo passports. >> yeah, you haveto give it to the hotel when you are giving in and they put it in their system. >> and that is the problem after all the security measures we took. and the trade truce may be giving the markets a lift, but what exactly godid the presiden and president xi agree to? >> and we are finding out more me here larry kudlow briefing reporters

saying it will be robert light hid light hizer taking the lead. and the 90 days doesn't start until january 1. so there was confusion over that it is 90 from january 1. and we saw steve mnuchin earlier today explaining that the real work really begins now in terms of putting specifics on the deal here's what he said. >> i'm very hopeful we can turn it into a real agreement the president has made clear that there is a pause, but the tariffs will agreement without a real agreement and he can contemplate more but there was clearly a very genuine offer from president trump xi to president trump making sure they have open their are markets to u.s. copi compans

so i think this is a big difference >> so the administration calling it a pause with a hope to xwhet get a real dick in 2019. >> and he made it seem like it wouldn't necessarily be a grand bargain, but it could actually be several smaller agreements about very specific entindustris >> and you could get a couple agreements spun off along the way or you could get sort of a tier of options. they could look at the grand bargain or if they can't get to that, maybe some smaller things that they could agree to at the end of that process. so we could get popping alongs way, something all at once at the end. it is up in the air.

>> and i did think it was interesting he talks about ending subsidies relatively soon for all electric cars? >> subsidies for electric cars is a separate issue, correct >> yeah, the president talked about that last week, i believe. he has been talking about that in the wake of tof wake of the enforcements but i would have to check the tweet scape. >> all right thank you. and the cease fire, is that th catalyst for the year end rally? the market is telling us they are convinced that this is anything huge. we having a nice rally, but when you put the market into context,

we are back into the same levels and haven't moved too much >> i think when you look at this year, a year in which it had 25% growth in earnings so could it have been higher probably but as far as what is going on today, these are all positives for the marketmarket i think it is good news for the market and this could be a good catalyst going forward about that. >> and how lasting is this how long do you think this could last >> we see this as one of three partial resolutions to major head winds last week we saw the fed with

some light at the end of the tunnel and in addition to the trade issues, talking about oil and it seems like opec are at least keep production at these levels. i think when we look at the economic, we have still high growth rates, i think the te sectors that will do well, technology, industrials and consumer discretionary will do well >> and so going back to the question of whether we are moving past this, is this really all about the fed turning things

around saying maybe we have done enough, maybe we don't need to get aggressive how much is the fed in play here >> i think the big issue is the fed for the first time in our history has been tightening it into a cnoninflationary environment. the economy will slow down and without inflation, i think that that is very important, the sense that near the end and they are not going to overtighten i think that was the big egg dri - biggest driver of last week and it will prevent the multiples from contracting more. >> and it looks like we're in jeopardy of inverting the yield curve.

>> i think that there is sear certain. there is a lot of value there. it is held hostage with the yield curve. and with the 10 year at 3%, that is a hard environment. >> sub 3 today >> and going into next year, these companies continue to do a lot of things with their capital. they have a lot of excess capital, they have cash they are using for buy backs. so i think that it will be a longer term process. but in the meantime still? support there. >> all right thank you both and what could a final deem

look like and where do the two sides go from here gary lott, thank you for joining us >> did it work out well for the u.s., could we get deals, are we come away with key protections on intellectual plroperties? >> certainly a pause is good for both sides in a trade war there are no winners, only losers and so we are beginning to see a soften willing eening of the u

and concern with exports of corn and soybeans down dramatically and china is our number two export destination for all that we grow and produce of our farms. so this because is very good the key is whether aor not we ca make significant progress on the tough complex issues >> so if you had to say this is the sticking point, what is the post important thing u.s.? what is the real victory >> the white house made some announcements or at least the president said that the chinese would immediately start buying more agricultural goods and high

tech stuff is that at the end of the 90 day period, actually four month period or is does is i it immediate?hid eliminate the tariffs on the automobiles but now saying they never said that. you p. -- let's remember that they moved it up to 40% after the trade war. so does it bring it about aable able -- back to the original 15% in any event. >> it will primarily help the miles per hour p mercedes and bmws.

ford and gm will manufactured in china. but suvs and specialty automobiles are made in america, they will benefit. >> and the crux of this whole trade war is this knowing that this is property dance ftransfer this is the meat and potatoes to improve the sort of conditions when we hear larry kudlow saying that trade could be resolved with certain smaller agreements, industry by industry, do you get the sense that the industry is slowly backing away from that grand barb begin thgain that th on the protection? >> that is the most important

issue i think facing the u.s./china trade talks very difficult and so i think that it is probably a good idea to break he all these different topics from intellectual property theft, cyber security, trade imbalances and force technology transfer. clearly trying to address the issue of forced technology transfer is paramount. so i'm glad that the white house is focusing on that area >> ambassador, thank you for your time. >> my pleasure coming up, apple may be getting all the headline, my is microsoft the better tech bet? and casino stocks all in, whether there be a long term pay

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and amazon surpassed microsoft so what has microsoft done to put itself back in the mix of the conversation plel lelg bri so what is microsoft doing well? is it all aboabout cloud? >> i think it is all when enterprise salesen a cloud is part of that. >> i think it wasbusine business-oriented company and it brought it back tois roots >> and apple itself changing the

conversation? >> yeah, and people are really emotional about apple despite the fact that this it is become a consistent company that is trying to get people to think more in terms of services and revenue that recur it is reporting units and that has a n impact but they are similar in terms of their size and strategic outlook on things. they finally figured out how the

summer and business sessionmen s -- segments work together he realizes z that t s that thel benefit the overall strategy >> and maybe apple realize that is we can namely -- microsoft had a turn around story. i don't know how apple can pull it off >> microsoft's business was growing nicely, but people didn't believe the story he was able to put cloud front and center and show how microsoft can actually work with other company to make that

strategy a reality it wasn't like you had to believe. we've steen some of teen some os coming down. apple is trying to be more of a tech company and not necessarily all about the iphone >> and you mentioned that it is catering more to the consume are, but you sort of like that there is a defensive nature when it comes to microsoft. some of the biggest cap tech names taking it on the chin especially as they are not

facing the flood of money out r but huge money concerns >> if you have created custom pla applications, it is difficult to move off that platform for consumers, who cares where you are getting your music from. so i think that is really the difference consumers are fickle and couple which -- businesses can't be >> all right thank you both

and next auto stocks are rallying ll you the trade angels. lels els. sels ls

kacasino stocks are hittingt today 7. time to take a gamble? these have been really beaten down stocks. now we have some relief. anything independent wibehind ts >> they don't fit a gamble that we're taking, but it looks like that they are due for relief these where a highare a highlycl

relief here. and as i mentioned, can't really get around recommending any of these because they have a fa falling friend las vegas sand, encouraging from a trading basis. could make the up side for $64 >> all right and how about as a longer term other than, can you make the case if the world holds together and chooina's economy continueso grow >> absolutely. the minimum bet on macau is five type times the las vegas bet

they are lags the revenue in a leak g leak -- los angeles gets i think that it will become a tourist decembstinatiodestinati. in addition to which i also believe that there is incentive for china and u.s. to come up with some kind of a deal so i think there is more momentum >> all right so it might be the pick of the group. thanks a lot for more trading narks hee natio our nation and now a news update. here is what that happening. china is vowing to move immediately on commitments to

trade relations. larry qud loi tell t kudlow sayd with u.s. officials. and schwarzenegger wants to stop fossil fuels being used. and several national fraternities are suing on over a rule that discourages single digi digit -- again dell clubs. that is your update this hour. and a check of the markets we are off the highs

we're almost 1%. consumer discretionary and energy and technology your top performing sectors and leading the dow right now, nike, boeing, cat pierpillar ana good day >> haven't you a mharvard girl >> yes >> but i don't feel discriminated against. another story. >> coming up, even as qatar says it is quitting, we'll see whether the bounce will last

welcome back the oiled m market closing for day. >> and up 4% to start december you can is see the 53 handle there. what drive being ting the action and trard trader are more confident of cuts coming. guitar oi tr.

and eric, thank you very much with china in particular, the question on thefully there, could it give the fed the all clear to hike rates in march >> we dig up tnegative morgan stanley wroting there are modest up side risks but little evidence that the proper counwoe on the same page but they say we are hopeful that china will change and the deal can get done they sigh perhapsee perhaps a 2.

so it could mean more interest rate hikes it could put another rate hike in play as early as march. analysts hold two opposing views. first, both leaders get further escalation is in no bebody's interests. but seconded other idea with the two sides on far apart, 90 days. >> now we be -- >> so they go back to the way we were before. so if they come to the table, that is progress it is hard to tell the forest

from the trees here. >> right and i think because it is a little unclear how the administration has designed two fr wh -- what the forest is what is the outcome. if they want to bring manufacturing back to the united states, that argues for tariffs for a long time. if peter navarro was in charge of it now, something pointedly this morning made a point, i think it was mnuchin saying light hid hid -- light horizones in charge. >> but why would the fed change its path?-- light horizoner wasn charge >> but why would the fed change its path if this is still a looming 90

day deadline, they will be like i'm not going to spend >> i think you ask an sliexcell question it is data but also yooutlook depend event the outlook can brighten if the trade tension goes around, and i think you're right, i think 93 90 days, risk are right back where we were but friday is jobs and i'll talk more about this

tomorrow but tell me where you we are if swr we have 3.5 on friday. >> and we are in a weird place but it might be a great place. all right. steve, thank you very much >> and jim, what are the traders thoughts watching the stock market reaction? >> as you kind of implied, the rate market nice but not but not monumental the story is relatively unclear. unless you wasn't to tell you w

things aren't worse. traded up to the highs in the october, but not any higher. i think if the mar dekets belie it was compelling, we would suspicious through it. >> all right >> i've been become, but not that good. >> all right you have some time don't we all p jim, thank you coming up, autos have been caught in the cross heirs between the u.s. and china and the story of how police

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the trade truce, but not a deal yet. >> and definitely a rerallief ry of sorts the president said china has e agreed to reduce and remove tarif tariffs. good news for the two european auto makers. bhw and daimler. this is also good news for tesla. china is the world's number one market when it comes to electric vehicles it's growth will dwarf everybody else tesla need to the seld mol more china.

and as you look at the sales numbers from november of this year, with with regaregard to aa little over 17 mill i don't thi think -- 17 million is the patriopay the pace hfr lay t the pace larry kudlow says huge in implications over the auto industry >> and an interesting time for the industry we have you're rean auto execs

scheduled to be at the white house tomorrow is there any sense on the docket >> according to the briefing larry qkudlow gave, the white house would like to see a commitment by the german auto makes to build engines here in the united states. obviously it would add administering and jobs here in the just >> and there is a kcrazy story about the model s. the guy falls asleep at the wheel and the car keeps drive something. >> yeah, once they determined that the driver was asleep, california highway patrol went in front of the model s and as

it slowed down, the driver assist from the model s kiept it from running into the squad car. and they arrested the driver for driving under the influence. what is interesting is that the model s automatic toy pilot is suppo -- the auto pilot is supposed to disengage so what happened, of questions. >> and i can see a case that you are just everyone gaungaged enoe that you are touching the wheel. >> and if you talk with people in the industry insurance, this question has come up with

self-driving vehicles, who is responsibility if a driver gets in and never had too much to drink and they are not really driving, so can they get a dmuit >> is your rate higher or lower if you have autopilot. >> a good question >> phil, thank you a busy day in the automatic toy industry let's bring in the former vice chair man general motors great to have you with us. and it is nice that the chinese could move to removing all the tariffs for u.s. cars coming into china, but the reality is that not many cars are produced in the u.s. that go into china, correct? how does it change the landscape in terms of if an automatic

makers decides to pild a build a new plant? >> one of th with the tariff wall it is less profitable to produce the vehicles on location because 06 this imbalance europe has 10% plus another 20% value added tax which is unfair. china had as we heard 40%. it diminishes the production in the country that has low tariffs an increases in country that is have a tariff wall the purpose of all of this is to create a level playing field you know, i said for as long as you folks have been kind enough to have me on, this is the

president addressing a wrong or a bad situation that's been permitted to go on for decades one thing it will do that will also benefit the u.s. administration or u.s. industry is if the tariffs on both sides go down or go to zero it will reduce the price of electronic components, electrical components etcetera and a lot of components that are sourced to china. >> so we could see prices come down for autos here in the united states. the parts that come overhe here, costs will be lower? >> costs lo go down but not dramatically regulatory costs go up i don't expect any dramatic price reduction but it does

reduce cost pressure directionally that's a very good thing. >> what does this do to gm's positioning? gm was one to produce vehicles for the chinese market if tariffs go to zero what does it do to general motors competitive advantage? does it go away? >> i don't think it will change gm's kplicommitment to local manufacturing. there are a lot of models produced in the united states which could be exported very profitably the volume is big enough to be profitable but not big enough to

establish a plan in china. those exports would increase i would expect things like yukon, gmc yukon, corvettes, certain cadillac models. it will be exported to china profitably >> great to speak with you >> thanks. and cigarette maker reportedly in early stage talks to require cronos. joining us is the chief knowledge officer and retail consulting firm. great to have you with us. >> great to be here. >> for a while it seemed like the k tobacco industry wanted to stay away it is a state by state basis what do you think altria has in

mind with this sort of purchase? >> first of all with the national legalization there dan you to realize that by 2020 we anticipate sit about a $4 billion market for cannabis in canada. today about the same percent use cannabis it is about 16%. you're looking at a market that is the same size as tobacco markets. so it is legal and legal foundations are clear. it is a good investment. if you do that as you can some times do it would get you to a $40 billion marketplace if the u.s. market were seamless and unregulated. you'll see an enormous amount. >> right >> when you take a look at reports potentially a stake in e-cigarette maker jewel potentially buying cronos.

do you get they are trying to buy a hechlk on that core declining tobacco business >> yeah. i think if you look at what altria is trying to do they are looking from cigarettes to broader nicotine and that's, you know, i think they will continue to investigate different platforms to do that it makes a major investment for the same reason. you know, if people are going to clang their mood they want to be part of it >> i'm wondering about the evaluation are they overpaying? these stocks have seen huge runs everything comes at a price. >> yeah. i think so i think there's two things if you look at the u.s. market because what they are buying into canada is a wonderful

country. assuming it would have a u.s. footprint. one, there is enormous pressure to legalize marijuana simply because the states have a budget crisis they will need revenue streams and legalized marijuana to do that secondly, i do think that if you are in a state by state regulatory environment which appears it will be in the u.s. altria's -- >> that's true it is fascinating. okay let's legalize something so we can take a share of that revenue for something people shouldn't be doing but it's okay thank you so much. >> you're very welcome >> brian is erthe. and my first check please is right after this >> i can't wait.

it is not google here. >> right >> no markets. >> so no market. we'll be trying to figure it out as well. it is national day of mourning that hearing needs to be on capitol hill on wednesday. >> apparently.

when asked ton conference call asked about the subsidies. he said they will be phased out. >> and they will be talking to her about that thanks for watching. you know what's coming up next >> it's closing bell >> hey, guys >> hey how are you doing? welcome back how are you doing? congrats on the new show >> thank you >> sarah has been giving me a lot of pointers saying it is going to get better. it will be okay. congrats to you guys as well have a great show. >> thank you very much we will see you again tomorrow from power lunch welcome to the closing bell everyone >> great to be fully reunited. >> i love the show and it's good to be reunited with my former partner and cohost