it's 5:00 a.m., here's your top five at 5:00 trade optimism turns around. we'll tell you why this is something that's happened in one part of the market that has not happened no more than a decade we'll tell you what it is and why it matters oil back on the rise opec getting ready to cut production but can the group hold fast. a top eu court adviser saying the uk could cancel brexit without asking for permission one of the uk's biggest company's ceos is here live. and pot stocks are on fire as global tobacco giant altria buys in and fires up it's tuesday, december 4th

"worldwide exchange" begins right now. good morning welcome from wherever in the world you are watching i'm brian sullivan yesterday it was whatever took to hold up we started up huge this time yesterday we were talking about dow futures being up 500 the market did end up higher, but the reality is that it came down by about half we're seeing that slide continue today. look at that dow futures down about 177 indicating a likely drop at the open the bond market may be the story today. here's why the ten-year note yield closed below 3% for the first time since september. it's at 2.95%. you know at the end of every show we do the rbi, let's call this your wbi.

wonky but interesting. the gap between the ten-year yield and the two-year yield, so-called yield curve, is at its narrowest since 2007 the spread between three and five-year treasuries inverted for the first time in more than a decade okay brian, why are you telling me these things at 5:02 because it matters traditionally this so-called inversion on the shorter end of the curve has been an early warning sign of a possible recession down the road. again, does not mean we will go into recession any time soon it is simply one of those flags that people wave and they look at it and say yield curve starting to invert 3 to 5 inverted. they're close. 2 and 10 is the big one. not inverted yet i know it's early, i know it's wonky but this is important. you know what else is important?

oil. i guess you use it in some form or fashion every day the price of crude oil is rising again here and around the world. wti crude is up 2.5% to 54.17. we have the opec meeting on thursday we have saudis and the russians meeting on friday. we will be there live for you on "worldwide exchange. now let's go worldwide willem marx joining us from london with some of the oversass action yesterday there was so much optimism today -- we didn't pop the balloon but it appears a bit deflated >> it's closed down across asia except for shanghai. the comp there is up 0.25% you look at the japanese, korean indices, they're in the red. in europe, not a positive day here either. the ftse 100, xetra dax, cac 40,

ftse mib all in negative territory. i will pull out a couple things to show you why that may be the case when we look at the automakers, a lot of concerns among the investors about some of these major car companies, some executives traveling to d.c. to meet with white house officials, but still a lot of uncertainty around the future of potential tariffs. looking at the italian banks, a lot of back and forth between the italian government and the european commission about their budget proposals that's seemingly weighing significantly on that sector in italy. one other thing you mentioned, the pound. looking at cable t reacted positively to this announcement from the european court of justice in luxembourg. the attorney general saying article 50, the mechanism by which the uk triggered this brexit process that could be unilaterally reversed. it means thebritish government could cancel brexit and no one could stop them. back to you. >> all right willem marx looking at the

markets there, thank you very much joining us now to talk about our markets here is mark avalone of potomac wealth advisers this time yesterday we needed you on dow futures were up 477 points everything was great the market ended up yesterday. however it came back by about half now we're down where has that optimism gone in 24 hours it came from a softening fed tone last week and some excitement out of the g20in argentina. it deflated when people realized that a trade deal that trump talked about was all has the and no cattle. there's nothing underneath it. this is a decades-old long trade war. it's not going to be decided in 90 days. once people started realizing that, they looked at the economic uncertainties that a prolonged tariff and trade skirmish will lead to, and that's why you're seeing more pessimism today.

>> day-to-day is interesting, but you're not a trader, i'm not a trader, most viewers and listeners are not traders. they put money in. they hold it they want to take more money out than they put in somewhere down the road how is our medium and long-term outlook looking? has it changed >> i tell people now if october made you lose sleep, you just had a few up days, a strong move last week. if this has been unsettling, now is the time to recalibrate and figure if you should stay in the market this volatility will continue in the short run. we still have a strong economy when we were talking about the fed raising rates last week and for the past year, it's because the u.s. economy is strong, and notwithstanding that slight inversion of the yield curve, there's very little out there causing recessions to be top of mind for most economists most economists are not looking for a recession. absent a recession, long-term investors should stay the

course the underlying u.s. economy, corporate earnings, strength of the consumer all still strong. >> mark, you must have glanced at my notes. the next question was about the yield curve. i know it's 5:00 in the morning, it's early it's important let's talk about that. the yield curve, the one we care about is not the three and five-year, it's the two and ten-year that's not inverted yet. the ten-year is below 3% why do you think the bond market and maybe the equity markets, if not telling different stories may certainly be going in different ways eventually? >> right the fed controls the shorter end of the yield curve that's why you see it so high less than two years out. the fed has been overly aggressive the weakening is a result of the global economy there's real trouble overseas. i think we'll have a flight to quality. you mentioned italian banks,

emerging markets have been weak because of trade skirmishes. there's a whole host of issues there's uncertainty in brexit. you have flight to quality, money coming into the treasury market pushing our yields down but the fed being aggressive they need to understand that they've caused a lot of this uncertainty. they raised the shorter end. if we have a better tone from jerome powell, you see a more normalizing of the yield curve >> help us make some money what looks attractive to you and your potomac wealth advisers team >> i think you sit through the short-term volatility. you have to focus on the data and the realities, not the headlines in the news. the u.s. economy is still strong there's no imminent fear of recession. look at the areas that have been beaten down that may still present values i think financials still have a lot of value on a relative basis to the rest of the market. for long-term growth investors i don't think technology is a bad place to be.

>> mark avalone, always a pleasure have a great day in d.c. dude, where is my pot deal here it is investors sending one pot stock flying high as altria buys into the space. frank holland has more kronos confirmed yesterday that they are in talks with altria about a possible investment kronos rose more than 11% during the regular session. shares are up 7% right now in premarket trading. kronos says no deal has been reached and there's no assurance that there will be any investment or transaction. the talks come as the company is looking to diversify beyond traditional smokers. reports last week said altria is eyeing a minority stake in juul. cigarette smoking in the u.s. fell to the lowest point in

recorded history last year but that cannabis and e-cigarette sectors are growing. total demand for pot is about 52.5 billion, including legal and black market sales as for e-cigarettes wells fargo preje projects that market to hit about 6.6 billion this year. altria shares are down this morning. >> see you in a few minutes. thank you very much. your three big money individual stories involve sofas, semiconductors and smart sheet. shares of rh are soaring today the stock is up 19%. they had better than expected results. they also raised guidance. apparently $4,000 coffee tables are hot now. cirrus logic is cutting its revenue outlook citing weakness in the cell phone market here's why you care. cirrus logic is a big supplier

to apple they join other apple suppliers who cut guidance they're down 6%. smartsheet reporting a smaller net loss revenue rose 59% beating forecasts. this is a cloud softwaremaker. they saw the number of customers with large contracts more than double the company went public in april. shares are up 50% since the ipo. so much more to do on this busy tuesday up next, could the cartel crumble? one long-term member quits opec. and bracing for a slowdown why one market pro is raising the red flag on the global economy. he'll make his case when "worldwidexcng rls o ehae"oln.

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in a two-hour window so you're up and running in no time. show me decorating shows. this is staying connected with xfinity to make moving... simple. easy. awesome. stay connected while you move with the best wifi experience and two-hour appointment windows. click, call or visit a store today. good morning 5:14 on the east a beautiful look at the rockefeller christmas tree we have an earnings alert. we are getting numbers hot off the presses -- are there still presses -- from toll brothers. they beat the street on the top and bottom line. toll brothers' ceo notes despite a healthy economy the company saw a moderation in demand in the last quarter he said the housing market is softening further which he blames on a few things number one, rising interest rates but also buyers impacted

by what the company calls "well publicized reports ofa housing slowdown." apparently the ceo of toll brothers, if not blaming the media is simply saying if we keep talking about a slowdown we might get a slowdown the economy is healthy, but buyers may be hearing the news of a slowdown and therefore not buying homes that downward psychology, if you will how is the overall market doing? this time 24 hours ago how great that was dow futures up nearly 500. not the case now dow futures down 146 points. oil prices are on the rise opec meeting thursday, expected to cut production by 1.3 million barrels per day. the bigger story there may be the future of the cartel qatar saying they're out as of january 1st. let's talk about a man now who knows a lot about qatar, he used

to live there. michael greenwald, former u.s. treasury attache to qatar. when the news broke yesterday you are the first person i thought about. qatar is saying they want to focus on gas they're a small oil producer, but this does smell of more than just simply an economic decision >> well, good morning. i think since the blockade last year qatar has been re-evaluating its position within opec. it's outlived its position, it's looking to -- this is largely a symbolic move. so it will continue to increase its national production worldwide. >> do you think this is waging the finger in the face of the saudis who have been effectively economically boycotting qatar blaming them for siding with iran, pushing qatar more and

more to the margin is this qatar going it alone. >> i think the relevance of opec has been waning. qatar since 1961 when it joined opec played that key intermediary role. if you look at opec now and the key marriage between saudi arabia and russia, that will be pivotal to the future of opec. >> you think opec has a future >> well, i think that it really depends on that marriage opec plus saudi and russia, i think that saudi arabia is keen to avoid the mistakes it made on market share and production in the '80s they know and everyone else is watching that they need to go 70 or above to balance their budget, whereas russia, you know, they have more wiggle room within the 40s and 50s that's going to be key looking forward. i think when you look at other opec members, this precedent by qatar, others could exit

will others follow if they stay in i think this is a really -- more of a symbolic move but it could set a precedent for others moving forward >> russia is like the guy at your club who is not really a member but always seems to be there with somebody else russia is like that with opec. they're not a member but they're there. friday, the day after opec, they're the opec plus, which is the saudis and russians making their announcement because they have a production deal what do you make of this growing tie between saudi arabia and russia >> i think it's an important relationship i think you saw that at the g20. there was a discussion and agreement between them everybody was watching that closely. that is going to be key and pivotal to the future of opec. and i think, you know, qatar has been investing in u.s. terminals. i think the u.s. likes that.

at the same time they're investing in poland and germany which is diversifying away from russia that pleases the u.s at the same time qatar becomes more of a competitor for the u.s. that relationship between saudi and russia, that's the relati relationship and marriage to watch going forward. >> michael, appreciate your time and insight on what was a fairly shock announcement, one we will get more on on thursday at the opec meeting in vienna thank you very much. >> thank you. the ceo of one of the uk's biggest companies is here live we'll talk about their company, their earnings, brexit and where they see opportunity. and is deutsche bank too big to fail? new worries about the biggest bank in europe that stock down almost 50% in a year chris whalen is here with what you need to know autbo one of the world's most important companies.

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like a biotech firm that engineers a patient's own cells to fight cancer. this is strategic investing. because your investments deserve the full story. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. well, it is not just about the stock market today also happening today is a tribute to our 41st president. thousands are expected to pay their final respects to former president george herbert walker bush he is lying in state at the u.s. capitol. that's a live look at his casket being guarded by america's finest tracie potts has more from washington on what we can expect >> good morning. good morning, everyone we have learned that president trump will meet with the bush

family today we saw long lines of people preparing to enter and more people filing through overnight paying their final respects. >> reporter: ushered in with a 21-gun salute, president george h.w. bush descended the capitol steps one last time. he will lie in state under the rotunda today. the son who followed in his footsteps struggled to maintain composure as ashington's elite reflected on his father's service and impact >> all his years in public service were characterized by kindness, modesty and patriotism >> reporter: today's leaders barely able to vote when president bush was in office, shaped by his challenges and his achievements >> he was the first president i had the chance to vote for and he was the first president to teach me and many of us that in a democracy sometimes you

fall short and that how you handle that, that is just as important as how you win. >> he kept us flying high and challenged us to fly higher still. >> reporter: president and mrs. trump paid their reflespects la night. they will attend tomorrow's state funeral. wednesday declared a national day of mourning for the war hero turned statesman and world leader the president's remains will be flown back to texas tomorrow after that service there's another private ceremony happening thursday in texas. he'll be buried at the bush presidential library with his wife and with his daughter >> tracie potts live in washington, d.c. he's going up to see robin, his daughter thank you very much. let's check the other top headlines outside of the world of money and business. francis rivera has those

good morning spacex made history monday by launching a record breaking 64 satellites into orbit. the falcon 9 was used for a third time, which is another company first. thousands of students from paradise, california return to class today. most of the schools there are gone, destroyed by the deadly camp fire. as of monday more than three weeks after being displaced the kids in northern california are back in schools at neighboring areas. forbes released its list of highest paid youtube stars and the host of ryan's toy review tops the list he raked in $22 million by just playing with toys. he has his own line of collectibles at walmart. jake paul attracted 3.5 billion views to his channel which features rap songs and prank videos earning him 21.5 million.

the five-man crew known as dude perfect, the group known for nailing trick shots and stunts came in third place with 20 million in earnings. when it comes to ryan, brian, at 10 he can retire >> where was youtube when we were that age? >> right we can start now, i guess. or maybe not >> no it won't end well for me thank you very much. up next, an interview you cannot afford to miss. we'll hear from the ceo of one of the largest investment firms of the world nigel wilson of legal & general is here. and could fans be any more excited? netflix wants to stay frndies.

stocks losing steam on this tuesday. we're down 117 on futures. altria stock has gone up in smoke lately so will a billion dollar pot deal fire up investors how you doing? fans are cheering for netflix this morning because they want to stay friends, and for "friends" to stay. ♪ welcome back thanks for being with us on cnbc i'm brian sullivan let's kick off the second half of the show with your executive

recap, the news you need to know in about 60 seconds. frank holland, can you do that >> i can tokyo prosecutors plan to arres carlos ghosn for understating his income he has been detained in tokyo since his arrest on november 19th. and the french government is expected to suspend its fuel tax to end the yellow vest protests. the protests started three weeks ago when a group of people called on the government to abandon planned gasoline taxes they marked their opposition with demonstrations and violence in paris. altria is in early stage talks to acquire cronos, a cannabis producer. altria is also looking at a minority stake in juul cronos up 7% this morning.

here's how your money and investments look right now this time yesterday stock futures were up nearly 500 i'm sorry to say not the case. but we were down nearly 200 when the show started we're down 105 right now on the futures. it's so early. i'm not saying don't pay attention to them, but at the same time they are volatile. the bond market may be the story. bonds can be a little bit dull, yes, but here's the key thing. the three and the five-year note, their yield curve about to invert the two and the ten getting closer a lot of people watch that if the two-year yield gets above the ten-year, people look at that at not the ultimate sign but a possible warning sign of a recession down the road. you will hear the term inverted yield curve a lot in the next couple of days, probably the next couple of weeks let's check the asian markets now. we're not seeing that trade optimism carry through shanghai was up a bit. hang seng up a bit japan gave back all that it gave

us yesterday the nikkei down about 2.5% and let's check the ftse 100, your guest coming up is a member of the ftse 100, down 1.25%. an adviser for the top european union court says the uk can cancel brexit without getting permission from other european union states. normally that kind of opinion is followed by a panel of judges who will rule on it. the case was brought by scottish lawmakers an british government. let's bring in a man who knows about this and global markets, nigel wilson is group chef executive at legal & general, one of the biggest investment firms in the world. they have an extremely unique model and are a member of the ftse 100

nigel, it took six months after i visited you to get you on the program. it was worth the weight. thank you for coming on. >> great persistency from you. >> you have to stick with it i know you're not a brexit master, but you're running a massive company. you have to deal with it what do you make of this ruling? how are you man naaging your company with so much up in the air? >> there's a lot in the air but there's a lot of things we can do a lot of other people are not doing enough and leaning into brexit we decided a while ago to recognize the fact there's a huge infrastructure deficit in the uk let's call it 300 billion. we put about 15 billion to work so far largely outside of london, across the uk, filling that gap and earning terrific returns for shareholders, but also having a big impact on society. >> so you're running -- it's interesting, your model does not exist here

effectively i willover s oversi it, you take pension and insurance money and invest it in real estate and infrastructure and construction projects. you know how much the united states has been discussing infrastructure and how much we are hurting for infrastructure what if any models should we learn from what you guys do? >> the good news is we're coming to america we found america to be a welcoming place for our business model. so far so good i'm spending at least -- coming over at least once a month to see the progress we're making. we're encouraged by the progress our model is simple. we invest principle to kickstart products, we fund them for the long-term, 20, 30, 40 years. the uk infrastructure deficit is about 300 billion there's a huge opportunity not just for our firm but lots of firms around the world to help fill the gap that america's

created over the last 30, 40 years by underinvesting in its infrastructure the more you travel around the world, the more people should recognize it's a huge opportunity in america this infrastructure deficit is so enormous. >> you know, here we talk about it -- you have a ph.d. from m.i.t., i know you understand how the u.s. mind works. al lot of people here view infrastructure as a spend, they don't look at it as an investment maybe they don't think about it enough as a return on invested capital. how can we make money -- when we talk about 1$100 billion this or 1$100 billion that, how can we profit from that here? >> the view that we've taken is, yes, you have to invest up front. but we're looking for very -- relatively modest, long-term secure returns for our pensioners certainly well above inflation when you look at what rates have been like for the last few years, this represented a good return for shareholders.

we're not looking for short-term gains. we're trying to match long-term assets against long-term liabilities. very different from banking, which relies heavily on maturity mismatching. our model is so different from banking. it's one society found useful in the past and is becoming increasingly relevant today. >> could we build a new airport in america or a new billion dollar bridge and make money off of it? >> absolutely. the rest of the world is managing to do this. china is building about 50 new airports right now we can hardly say we got the right model in the uk. we've been trying to expand the heathrow airport for 40 years and have failed to do it for whatever reason our western democracies are not well suited at the moment. however we are kocopying the u.. model and giving more powers to mayors of cities, and those

mayors are having an impact on the uk outside of london, manchester is a great example, the airport has been modernized, traffic has been transformed, lots more infrastructure is going in there. we've got billions committed to future development in cities and towns like manchester across the uk the u.s. can do the same it has the smartest people in the world, the best capitalized companies in the world, the best technology in the world. but somehow the politician, business people and financiers have to work together to deliver this model we've been successful in the uk. let's see how successful we can be in the united states. >> you have to think as long-term as any ceo out there your projects are many years, some of them maybe more than a decade a lot of short-term headlines and noise out there. when you look out, maybe it's brexit, maybe it's trade or something else, what is the biggest risk you see in the

near-term? >> the near-term is the trade war between china and america. we all recognize trade has to be mutually beneficial to both economies. clearly the trade deficit between china and america has gotten too wide. we have to find a root to successfully resolving this issue. the economic consequences for the rest of the world are quite dire they are, indeed, the largest short-term risk that we have, not just for our business model but for many others because it will change sentiment. at the moment the global economy is doing well. china has got strong growth. america has outstanding growth why risk it by taking all of these backwards steps? that's why we were slightly encouraged by what happened in argentina. let's hope more of those constructive conversations happen in the future >> nigel wilson, group ceo of legal & general, appreciate your time hope that it's not another six months before we see you again

thank you very much. >> thank you let's find out what else you will be talking about today. time for the top trending stories. what are we talking about? >> are you a sitcom guy? >> only good ones. i prefer the uk office to the u.s. office. i guess i'm a freak. >> i've seen "the office" a couple times, but we have one more popular than that "friends." the sitcom will still be there for you. >> no. no >> fans started to panic when the netflix interface displayed available until january 2019 episodes, but netflix is confirming the show will be there a while longer >> it is smelly cat.

>> i love that song >> it's smelly cat >> i liked when she went from acoustic, there was an electric version of smelly cat that took off. almost a jingle for a litter company. >> some people don't know what we're talking about. >> those people need to google >> yeah. >> stay off your phone at a broadway show. >> yes it seems like kanye west can't avoid bringing controversy with him wherever he goes broad kay way is no exception. he attended opening night last night of the cher show an he got caught on his phone. after the show kanye apologized saying please pardon my lack of etiquet etiquette. we have so much appreciation for

the energy you guys put into making this masterpiece. >> put the phone in a coat check? >> no. >> have a locked bag -- >> no. >> why do you need this? >> it's mine i like it. i need it >> why do you need it for two hours? >> i need it. >> two hours >> you have two in your hand right now. the show is only an hour this is for e-mail what is the other one for? >> i get my texts. >> and this show is only one hour >> i don't like phones here's something kinder and gentler than our cell phone argument this time of year you expect snow showers, not teddy bear showers, that's what they had in hershey, pennsylvania. fans were asked to bring teddy bears to a home game to donate to kids in need. fans rained nearly 35,000 stuffed animals on to the ice

setting a new world record >> why is this a world record? why does this exist? anything can be a world record this is for theiritcharity. >> i was on my phone responding to people saying they should put their phones away. >> it's a vicious cycle. >> everything is a world record. have you noticed that? this man stacked more newspapers faster than any man in history why is that a thing. >> espn is terrible at that. they always say this is the first time somebody scored 40 points and one assist -- >> after losing a shoe >> they make up stats. >> what's that >> sometimes they make that up same thing with the world records. what >> are you actually on your phone? >> was a joke. >> the second phone you didn't need up next, the recession question could a global pullback be in

the cards for next year? the bond market may be saying it deutsche bank's stock down 50% in a year. one of the world's biggest banks. are the troubles behind it or are the real troubles ahead of it ♪ ignition sequence starts. 10... 9... guidance is internal.

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let's talk about a story that's probably not getting the attention it deserves, just given the fact that there's so much else going on deutsche bank has had a tough run. the stock is down nearly 50% since january. just last week its offices were raided by german police. what can deutsche bank do? what does it need to do? let's bring in chris whalen. if deutsche bank was a u.s. company this would be at the top of the "wall street journal. this is one of the world's biggest banks. 50% of its stock value wiped out in a year. >> look at it over three, four years. >> i'm trying to be gentle it's a big story is it too big to fail? >> in europe it is they get a pass from european regulators in the u.s. they would be under a consent deck crree and that wd

be in big trouble. >> we keep doing stories, they cut this division, laid off this man. what is deutsche bank right now and why don't these changes seem to be working? >> it's a capital markets investing banking o secondarily they're a bank most of the banks in germany are state banks. deutsche bank is outward focused, like citi they are not really a domestic german or european bank. capital markets turned them into a derivative stop, second tier mortgage bank. what do you do with that i say you merge them with citi >> you think citigroup should buy deutsche bank -- let's not call it a merger citi would have to buy them. >> i would have them buy it. what would this do >> it consolidates two

relatively weak capital markets business citi is more of a bank they have a nice consumer book global payments business they're in five significant markets around the world they're committed to a global model. >> we have not had a merger of that size in the financial markets, not one that wasn't forced in over a decade. you think there's a real chance of that happening? >> i think at a certain point regulators in europe have to realize they are getting involved you have a board that's been passive, has not forced change the whole thing is just a study in why banks get to be too big to fail. they're not managed. you have people destroying shareholder value left and right. yet nothing happens. i think it's indicative of where the u.s. could be years from now if we allowed our banks to be messy. european banks are

undercapitalized >> you think they need a few years of boring. >> and making money. we are slowing down in key business areas for them. >> is there a risk deutsche bank fails? >> there's a risk that they become so unprofitable that they have to do so. like a face-saving merger with commerzbank. they have a shareholder selling now. hna group, overleveraged chinese aviation companies -- >> they buy into everything and dump everything. >> was crazy to let them come in and buy it in the first place. they were not a credible buyer the germans were so happy to see them show up they said fine. now they're selling. all those positions are levered. you need a new anchor tenant in deutsche bank that is willing to sign on to a new strategy. we don't know what that strategy is yet >> maybe that tenant could be citi group we'll see.

big story. amazing how it doesn't get as much play. >> one morning it could. >> one morning it likely will. thank you very much. taking a breather. stocks slumping after a rally. jeff kleintop has what you need to know for next year. and three tech giants fighting to become the most valuable company in the world. th iyoiss ur rbi so they say that ai will put the future in the palm of our hands. that's great.

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we have a big analyst call crossing the cnbc news line. that's apple apple downgraded to hold from buy at hsbc. the analyst blames a lack of catalyst they are cutting their price target from 205 to 200 the stock is at 182. despite the downgrade they see about 10% upside so a downgrade, but one where they see upside as well. just not that excited about the stock again that downgrade just

crossing we'll get more on it as the morning rolls on. 2018 almost in the books there's a lot going on i would don't we think about next year and being a little smarter going forward. let's bring in jeffrey kleintop, chief global strategist from charles schwab how is that? >> i love it >> can you make us smarter >> i will do my best what is the most important thing your clients, our viewers, need to know heading into next year >> next year we could see the peak in the markets ahead of a bear market in global recession that could take place late next year or in the year 2020 if you look at 2018, what we can learn from the past year is for all the concerns about trade policy and brexit, those were not the drivers of the big moves in the market. they drove volatility. the down moves in february and again in october were about interest rates and inflation tied to fed policy those are the indicators we want

to watch that brings me back to the yield curve. watching for that inversion which could take place next year often a sign of the signal of a peak in the stock market there's one other gap to watch, the unemployment rated and the inflation rate when those two are the same number, it's a sign of the peak in the stock market. >> this inverted yield curve, which i suspect -- i'm just using my powers of intuition that will be something we talk about going forward. how severe is this is this a red flag is this a giant canon? what is this the yield curve, when we see the three-month yield rise above the ten-year yoeld, this happen yo-d about seven times in the last 50 years. it signals a peak in the stock market ahead of a recession that follows about a year later this is a remarkably accurate indicator, but not just for u.s.

stocks it works internationally as well. it marked every peak also in the ifi index. i realize the yield curve is looked at as distorted today by central bank policies around the world, yet it continued to work for many countries even though their yield curves have been entirely below zero for a period of time. >> how do you think this trade thing plays out? the markets swung wildly yesterday based on a couple of headlines. people dove into it more they were like, eh what is charles schwab's view on this trade truce? >> it's a bit of a one-day wonder so far. nothing was resolved we'll keep an eye on it. there's reasons to believe that we may come to an agreement, not just because we came to an agreement with korea and their fta, but we've seen the eu in japan join with the u.s. on wto complaints that adds weight to the u.s.

demand on these structural issues like technology transfer and intellectual property. there are other factors. we have got china focused on its made in china 2025 program that wasn't mentioned at all there's a variety of factors that could cause both sides to come to some sort of an agreement but they're far apart and 90 days is not a lot of time >> jeff kleintop, thank you very much appreciate it. >> thanks. time for the rbi today it's about wall street's mvpc award world's most valuable company. amazon, apple and microsoft all held the title as the most valuable company the last couple of days. right now apple has the title by 10 billion over amazon microsoft is close behind. who do you think will end the year with the title of the world's most valuable company?

we'll put out a poll on our twitter account. that's it, the horse race to be the top dog in the world random but interesting that's it for us "squawk box" is next

good morning warning signs. in the bond market, what is happening? part of the treasury yield curve just inverted for the first time in a few years we'll show you how markets are reacting this morning. this is happening as crude prices are on the rise today this is a supply issue expectations of opec supply cuts we'll get you ready for the big meeting of crude producers. and big quarterback might be

going green. the maker of marlboro cigarettes is in talks to buy a marijuana company. it's tuesday, december 4, 2018 "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box. good morning welcome to "squawk box," everybody. this is cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and mike santoli. andrew is off today. let's look at the u.s. equity futures. we are under pressure. the dow futures are indicated down by 100 points this comes after the markets gave away some of the big gains at this time yesterday we ended with the dow up 290 points yesterday yesterday we were up in the morning by 500 points. all that was then enthusiasm after