welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche >> i'm willem marx one of the most contentious meetings in opec history is set to start this hour with an output cut on the table despite white house pressure and as qatar quits the cartel >> some of the media have been politicizing this because they don't know maybe the fact. the truth is this has been done in a methodical way of looking at strategy and what is our business going forward. china's foreign ministry

calls for clarity after huawei's cfo is arrested in canada over alleged u.s. sanctions violations. european stocks hit a six-week low with chip americas bearing the brunt of selling on the fear of huawei's cfo arrest could derail progress in the trade talks. and europe's auto supplies index hits the lower point since 2016 with daimler at a five-year low over trade tension concerns. good morning let's look at how markets are doing. u.s. markets were closed yesterday after president bush's funeral. overnight risk was really focused on these stories the story that the cfo of huawei, one of the largest tech companies in china, their cfo got arrested in canada at the requr request of u.s. authorities.

that sent ripples through equity markets. the nikkei trading at the lowest several since october 30th chinese equities are trading lower as well. steep declines after the beginning of the week, we thought there would be a detente after u.s./china trade relations. after the arrest of the cfo, lots of questions about what that means for china/u.s. trade talks and this 90-day trade truce. in europe, the stoxx 600 trading about 1.5% weaker. about an hour into the session this is what the picture is like across the board all of the major bourses trading in the red ftse 100 below that 7,000 line, that mark in the sand. 1.5% weaker. in terms of what you want to watch out for today, other events, the general risk-off environment. we have the brexit minister speaking in about a half hour's time he will talk about the deal and the brexit discussions

this is in about 30 minutes time also deputy governor ben broadband is speaking. german index down 2% no surprise given export sensitivity. switching on to speectors, ever one of the sectors in europe is trading in the red some defensives outperforming. food and utilities down a half percentage point at the bottom, technology down 2.7% no surprise there given that huawei is a tech company again, this raises concerns about what this means for the future of trade relationships. there's the supply chain impact there particularly pertaining to some chipmakers in europe. basic resources getting hit. >> let's talk about oil. today is a big day for the energy markets

the opec meeting is about to start. what we've seen is a drop in the oil price overnight. expectations that there may be some form of a cut the question is how big and whether russia is on board all of the firms trading weaker in line with risk-off sentiment and other asset classes as well. the main story is that canadian authorities arrested huawei's cfo, meng wanzhou, the daughter of the chinese smartphonemaker's founder. she faces extradition to the u.s. american authorities have not given a reason for her arrest. according to multiple reports, it relates to violations of u.s. sanctions. a court hearing has been set for friday china's embassy in canada said this violates meng's rights.

let's check in on the price action tech is the most hard hit sector this morning in europe this is the picture for some of the chipmakers, asml down 3.5% there's the supply chain impact as it relates to the u.s. tech firms. one of them is apple with some of the analysts downgrading forecast for of the analysts downgrading forecast for for iphone sales. shares in huawei suppliers have slumped following news of the arrest >> reporter: this move is being described as unprecedented canadian authorities have arrested huawei's cfo, sabrina meng at the request of the united states. they want meng to appear at a federal court in new york as the

u.s. government looks into whether huawei violated iranian sanctions. the bail hearing is tentatively set for friday huawei says the company has been provided very little information regarding the charges and is not aware of any wrongdoing by ms. meng the spokesperson added that huawei complies with laws and regulations everywhere it operates the chinese have also condemned the move saying through the embassy in canada that they firmly oppose this move and called it a gross violation of human rights the timing is raising questions about the u.s.'s intentions. canadian officials say meng was arrested on december 1st, the same day that presidents trump and xi were sitting down for din tore work out a trade deal the speculation is that this is a warning from the united states that it is serious about china changing underhanded practices some u.s. business executives say the tactic could backfire.

they say that president xi jinping won't want to look weak and they now fear retribution. ms. meng is not just any cfo, she's the daughter of the founder, and they say china will want to have her back. eunice yoon, baeijinbeijing. in the uk, bt announced they will remove huawei's equipment from the 3 gshg and 4g communicn devices. eric sen is up ericksen is up 1.3%. clearly aericksen is a beneficiary there.

willem >> to talk about this in more detail we are joined by neil campling he joins us from london. in the studio is our guest host, seema shah neil this is a shock to many people not following this space closesly presumably this is not coming in a vacuum, this arrest. >> that's correct. we heard through early this year when similar sanctions were taken against zte that huawei was implicated in the same -- on the same sanctions and we look at the u.s. report released two weeks ago, again huawei was mentioned in that report as well so it's not a complete shock but there are ramifications that have much wider implications, which is where you're seeing reactions this morning, which come back to the whole issue again around trade tariffs and

i.p. wars and battles that are taking place so it's also coming at a significant time because you're actually seeing significant ramp in 5g testing, which becomes a significant technology battle, if you'd like, over the course of the next five years >> presumably a valuable 3 technology battle. is there any evidence that western countries are acting so aggressively against chinese firms like zte and huawei to try to prevent them from getting ahead of western companies like nokia and trying to control that 5g battlefield >> i think there's a couple of things at play you have to remember that 5 g technology itself is a software led technology it's software led rather than

hardware led as in 4g and 3g why is that important? you have millions and millions of lines of software code in the 5g protocol. you know, if you look at the announcement from earlier this week, part of it is like trying to find a needle in a haystack if there is anything in that technology that is not the correct kind of code in that form factor. if you look at 4g technology, ericksen's technology has shrunk there are reasons that are economic reasons and technology reasons why you're seeing these battle lines being drawn out

>> i want to come back to the timing of this announcement. again, many people are saying that perhaps it want a coincidence that the arrest happened overnight, just a couple days after the trade truce was announced what is y dd what is your take on the situation? is it that the commerce department has not really been working closely enough with the department of justice? >> that's difficult to know. it is interesting that these actions are taking place at a time that lots of various u.s. intelligence agencies or different agencies in the u.s. are coming out with various reports about chinese actions. and that's not just the u.s. tr, we had that from cfius earlier this year which blocked a number of deals, of chinese companies buying into american firms that

revolved around ip i don't think you can look at this in isolation. i think there are multiple agencies who have been taking a much closer look at the actions of chinese corporates. >> neil, i want to ask about the role of iran in this, sanctions. we look historically over the last decade or so, sanctions on iran has ended up biting a lot of major global banks badly in terms of allegations, settlements about them operating inside iran, trading with iranian entities in violation of u.s. sanctions both zte and huawei seem to have fallen afoul of that situation in your sector, is the business in iran so valuable to these firms, such a potential upside that it's worth taking these risks? >> good question the short answer is i don't think they are particularly valuable relative to the

opportunities in other markets it's possible that sometimes companies are chasing the growth, especially in technology, where top-line growth is so important often they end up chasing opportunities regardless of where they are based then the issue for other supply chains is when these kinds of fallouts happen, you have the knock-on effects which actually we saw early this year, zte being shut down for many months, causing massive disruption to suppliers who were based in the u.s. themselves. so there are -- in one sense huawei and zte help create the standards around technology i.p.s, that's happening this year even with 5g. at the same time they are also going against sort of orders that have been made clear with

regards to countries like iran and north korea. >> sir, thank you very much for joining us if you want to join us, you can follow us on twitte twitter, @streetsignscnbc. coming up, we will go live to vienna for one of the most contentious opec meetings in recent history do stay with us. your brain is an amazing thing. but as you get older, it naturally begins to change, causing a lack of sharpness, or even trouble with recall. thankfully, the breakthrough in prevagen helps your brain and actually improves memory. the secret is an ingredient originally discovered... in jellyfish. in clinical trials, prevagen has been shown to improve short-term memory. prevagen. healthier brain. better life.

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welcome back to "street signs. we are in risk-off mode for asian equities and european equities to give you a recap of what's going on, the ftse is at the december 201 l6 lows, down 1.8%. similar theme for stoxx 600. also at the lowest level since 2016 down 1.7% as well. heavy declines in european equities following on from heavy losses in the u.s. a couple days

ago. legal analysis from the british government inflicted a fresh blow to theresa may's hopes that she can win a vote on her brexit proposal next week. the analysis revealed the terms of a backstop provision over the northern ireland border could leave the uk trapped in protracted and repeating rounds of negotiations. the northern irish democratic unionist party that props up may's government calls these revelations devastating and says its mps would vote against may's deal but the party also said members would not oppose may if the labor opposition were to call a no-confidence vote in her leadership jp morgmorgan said the odds canceled brexit have rose to 40% after it was argued that the uk has the power to unilaterally revoke its decision to leave the

eu british chancellor philip hammond told the parliamentary outcome that betrayed the referendum result would cause more damage than any departure from europe. >> if parliament does not agree to go forward with the negotiated proposal, clearly we are in unchartered territory, but the important thing is that when parliament makes that decision, it is fully aware and all members of parliament are fully aware of the implications of adopting any of the other scenarios as a way forward that will have consequences both in the short-term and long-term for our economy. it's important that people understand that. >> president trump believes that president xi meant every word he said during their g20 meeting. he pushed back on reports that beijing may not address his

trade concerns saying china has sent very strong signals i wonder if this changed overnight with the arrest of the huawei official. earlier this week trump proclaimed himself a tariff man. china's commerce ministry said the goal is to remove all tariffs. it described the g20 meeting between trump and xi jinping as a success. geoff spoke with former pboc governors who said they will reach a trade truce. >> i'm optimistic. the president and ts were in se discussion we see a compromise from both sides. so that they stop the escalation

of a tariff war. surely they set up 90-day trade negotiation. but basically i see that, yeah, there is pretty high probability to reach success in the 90-day negotiation. >> so as far as you're concerned, it is quite likely then that within the 90 days we will have a full tariff structure agreement with progress on areas like intellectual property rights, protection, and other issues that have been of concern to the americans? >> yeah. >> between china and the u.s. there are some very difficult

issues you mentioned protecting intellectual property rights china has strong feeling to protect intellectual property rights not only the u.s. intellectual property rights but it's also become a serious domestic and economic development strategy to protect it the domestic intellectual property rights. so there's regulation. u.s. released these things, we can improve our legislation and the regulation but especially to improve this law enforcement. so i think that's a common thing

among u.s. and china >> our colleague stateside will talk about trade and the u.s. economy with christine lagarde, that interview is coming up at 16:00 cet. let's bring in seema shah. i want to ask your take on the developments over the last 24 hours. monday we had a risk-on rally in markets. fizzled out by tuesday really steep declines as people priced in the longevity of this trade truce between china and the u.s. do you think the huawei arrest will severely tarnish the investor appetite for wanting to own equities >> i think it's difficult to read what this arrest is about i thinkit's a time to remind that the monday rally was premature. we heard about the tariffs, but it's difficult for china to meet some of the u.s. requirements.

they're too existential to developments of china over the next decade really there is a major problem here between the technology sector. going forward i would expect the technology sector to be the most vulnerable to the trade talks going forward. >> on the technology sector, does that make you less inclined to hold overweight positions going into that sector going into next year as you say, these issues will not go away. what the u.s. asks of china is something they cannot deliver on in a suitable timeframe. >> yes it's difficult with the technology sector. it's extremely expensive, but yet it continues to go up it has a number of issues going forward. the main thing is the u.s./china trade talks. on top of that the external

environment is becoming more and more difficult for tech. >> seema, stay with us more on that after the break also coming up, we will live in vienna where oil ministers are gathering for one of the most contentious opec meetings in recent history. stay with us

welcome back to "street signs. i'm willem marx. >> i'm joumanna bercetche. these are your headlines one of the most contentious mootings is now under way with an output cut on the table despite white house pressure and as qatar quits the cartel >> some of the media have been politicizing this because they don't know maybe the fact. the truth is this has been done in a methodical way of looking at strategy and what is our business going forward. china's foreign ministry calls for clarity after huawei's cfo is arrested in canada over alleged u.s. sanctions violations. european stocks hit a six-week low with chipmakers bearing the brunt of selling on the fear of huawei's cfo arrest could derail progress in the trade talks. and europe's auto supplier

index hits the lower point since 2016 with daimler at a five-year low over trade tension concerns. a bit of a murky start to european trading you can see it's a picture of red across the board all the major indices are trading deeply in the red. ftse 100 down almost 2%, almost 130 points dax is 2% lower. export sensitive there in the back drop in the next couple of days is the beginning of the cdu leadership contest. so we'll find out who will be succeeding angela merkel so keep an eye on that as far as the german index cac 40 is weaker ftse mib joining in on the declines switching to foreign exchange, there the picture is more muted.

euro is hanging in that 1.13 mark similar theme for cable, struggling to break through on 1.27 on the down side and 1.28 on the upside ahead of that house of commons vote next week. a lot of traders are saying the latest amendments are pointing to a less chance of a hard brexit that's playing out somewhat in currency dollar/yen we're seeing there some risk aversion play out with that currency. switching to u.s. futures, we were closed yesterday for trading. this is the fist session post the very steep session of declines that we had on tuesday. and today the picture is not that much prettier dow seen opening up about 340 points lower nasdaq about 100 points lower. when the news came out that the cfo of huawei was arrested futures dropped about 2% in

trading overnight. that picture is playing out when things look to open in a couple hours time opec nations will wait to hear how much output russia will cut before deciding on their own reductions reuters says production cuts are likely to be greater than 1.4 million barrels a day. you can see what's happening there. pretty significant slide there wti down more than 1.4%. $52.11 a barrel. brent also trading lower by more than 1% at 60.83 there's a slew of data due in the u.s. today and tomorrow. that starts with ism nonmanufacturing pmi last month the overall figure showed production slowed despite a growth in services on friday the u.s. labor department will release non-farm payrolls for november. the u.s. added 250,000 jobs in october. that was higher than the market

expectations the u.s. economy has expanded, but business uncertainty still lingers amid global trade tensions the beige book shows most of the fed's 12 regional districts reported growth, but some firms say they're putting spending plans on hold amid concerns about tariffs and rising rates >> steve liesman has the details. >> reporter: the federal reserve's beige book said growth remained modest to moderate but saw some signs of slowing. the beige book collects business anecdotes from around the federal reserve system it said optimism has waned behind that was tariff uncertainty and rising rates and market constraints tariff induced cost increases spread more broadly. tariffs were mentioned 39 times

in the beige book, elevated for an issue that didn't exist all that long ago. gains were reported on the higher side of modest, overall prices continue to increase at just a modest pace several districts noted rising freight costs and higher home prices, but falling oil prices the slowdown reported in the beige book backs up those who see the u.s. economy slowing but not as dire as the resentresent- recent u.s. market selloff indicates. this could raise questions for not only 2019 but even in december seema shah is still with us. many analysts are revising down their outlook for growth next year, not just in the u.s. but in the rest of the world what does that mean in terms of how you're thinking about your

investment portfolio >> i think the forecasters have gone too far the u.s. will be slowing down next year. you should expect the strong dollar from this year and the trade tensions but then to say that we have recession coming into 2019, i don't think there's an indicator out there that would suggest 2019 is the year >> the flattening of the curve is what people are pointing to >> absolutely. we know it will be slowing down. certainly there is a recession in the future. it seems like 2019 is too early to be worried about that 2020, 2021, everything is to play for that one. for markets to be as concerned and to be dropping as far as they have, it's too far. >> do you think given the concern in the marketplace it's time for investors to think about deploying their money into more defensive sectors, perhaps into cash, maybe go back into fixed income are you detecting a shift in

terms of how people are thinking about 2019 and where risks come from >> absolutely. though the u.s. is not going into recession, i think there's a slowdown coming. i feel like u.s. equities will have a tough time next year. we have to tell our investors that it's time to become more defensive. so looking at more defensive sectors. looking at more defensive parts of fixed income. you have to look at equities and fixed income have been correlated recently. that's not giving you enough protection you should be looking outside of that for us the best place is real assets when the market is as volatile as it has been -- when i talk about volatility, it's really intrada intraday spurts. does it make it a trickier investment environment are people saying, you know what, from a risk/reward perspective things are too risky. i might as well stay out of the market for the time being?

>> that's increasingly a concern. i would say if we get close to end cycle, the spikes in volatility are to be expected. and we're getting into the holiday season, so there will be those points it is important to have a fundamental perspective to not just react to day-to-day news, but also responding to day-to-day events will be difficult for any investor >> what about the fed? how do they respond? >> the fed is interesting. it's becoming increasingly difficult to explain this. because the u.s. is unlikely to go into recession, i think the u.s. can deal with two more hikes next year without falling off a cliff. what the fed has been saying is very difficult communication needs work, it's misleading and is adding to the volatility >> do you think the market is right in pricing in so much dovishness out of the fed? if you read what powell said,

he's reiterating that they're data depend dent >> absolutely. i don't think we learned anything new from it maybe there's conversation about what the neutral rate is we know there's no clear number on what that rate is i think the market is almost -- it's a concern for me. if the market is this dovish about the fed, it does mean there's a potential for a repricing of interest rate expectations which is a cautionary point for markets if you see that bump up in bond yields, then you could see another repeat of what we saw in february and october of this year >> do you think that's the biggest risk for the market outlook going into next year >> i think there's a real concern about the fed. we have to have clear communication, where is that going? we also need the market to remember, look at the economic indicators, is there anything to suggest that recession is coming in the next 12 months? >> in the beige book there were concerns about the impact tariffs are having the market is flippant

monday we were saying there's a trade truce in sight 90 days. there's progress even the president was tweeting about so-called progress but then sentiment got hit again by the arrest of this cfo. how much of this trajectory is a function of trade talks on, trade talks off. how do you trade around that >> absolutely. increasing what we have seen this year is politics are driving markets so much, it's difficult without volatility with the u.s./china stuff, you need to look where i can move forward? can i get a lot of demands met from china is the u.s. really willing to go as far as what china is asking from my perspective i'm skeptical about how quickly this u.s. china trade tensions can end. that needs to be kept in mind. >> where is the chicken and egg situation when it comes to the u.s. dollar and trade tensions what happens to the dollar does it have an impact on the

situation or does this situation have an impact on the dollar >> that's something we are getting asked by clip clients e time why did the dollar strengthen so much this year that's the first thing. because the u.s. totally outperformed going into next year, with the u.s. slowdown on hand, it indicates the u.s. dollar should weaken now the trade talks, it's a bit of noise about again you have to look at the fundamentals that's the only way investors can get through the next period. >> seema, don't go anywhere. thank you very much for the insight. the st. louis fed issued a warning about the u.s. yield curve. head to cnbc.com to find out why the bank is concerned about an economic shock. coming up, don't miss robert kaplan, the dallas fed p president. that's at 2:00 p.m. central european time. commerzbank will see changes to its board of managing

directors. michael reuter will leave in 2019 and the chief operating officer will depart in february. if you're looking for steinhoff's results for 2017 and 2018 don't be expecting them soon they will not be released until april. the forensic investigation into the company has been delayed last year the group admitted to accounting irregularities. >> let's not forget that the ecb used to hold steinhoff bonds on their books. uk gambling firms agreed to stop advertising during live sports and broadcasts. there's been intense political pressure about the quantity of betting adverts that have appeared on british television ds smith has reported a 32% jump in first half operating profit this was in line with bullish

forecasts. the packaging company said that growth in e-commerce helped to offset higher production costs the results showed it held on to a strong position in the sustainable packaging settlement switching to tech. facebook's board of directors says coo sheryl sandberg was within her right to launch an investigation into whether george soros had shorted the company's stock. the board said it was fair and appropriate for sandberg to take such a level of due diligence. sandberg's role at facebook has come under scrutiny after reports revealed the company hired the pr firm definers to attack its high-profile critics. internal e-mails between facebook officials between 2012 and 2015 indicates app develo r developers were given access to

certain user information that was not available to other apps. in response to these allegations, facebook reiterated that it has never sold peoples data. and bruno lemaire says paris will tax digital firms at a national level if eu states can't strike a deal on taxes for tech companies attempts to pull together an agreement at the european level have so far failed it is a story we've been watching closely these developments on the digital taxation front and whether or not they can come to an eu-wide agreement seems like france are intent on pushing their own digital tax agenda as we said, we've been waiting for these opec headlines we are just getting some headlines out now. saudi energy minister says there is no agreement yet to cut this is interesting given that

the expectation was after yesterday's technical meeting that perhaps they would be considering a cut of up to 1.3 million barrels to 1.5 million barrels per day. the energy minister also says we do not want to shock the market. we are optimistic there will be an overall agreement at opec the iraqi oil minister says the price slide is not in the interest of energy ministers if there's no agreement to cut output, this is not a positive signal for the oil market, is it >> clearly not we have to -- the market has been fully expecting there to be a cut in place i think that's why most forecasts out there are for oil prices to rally going into 2019. if we don't get that today, it will be disappointment but there's still tomorrow it would be surprising if we

don't get that >> already the price of brent and wti are dropping about 1.5% lower oil prices are down 30% from where we were in october yesterday we had the technical meeting. the oman oil minister after that me meeting said there was a broad agreement to cut this, to me, speaks of the politics overriding the fundamentals here. >> absolutely. at this stage, before we get clear answers, it's going to be a lot about the dynamics between opec members we have to consider where the pressure is coming from in the u.s. and how they take that into consideration. >> let's talk about pressure from the u.s. and membership of opec there's a comment here from the iranian oil minister on whether they will stay in opec, he says they will. and there is also a flash that india and iran have agreed to settle their deal in rupees.

why is that a big deal >> we've seen a lot of problems going through iran it is interesting. it's an interesting dynamic that will play out with any country that has a relationship with iran i would expect there to be some type of response from that twitter account. >> just to add to that, the iran oil minister said they will not be joining any deal to cut output until sanctions are lifted that's the political dimension >> i wanted to ask you, we're now a month on from the imposition of those sanctions, how much of a damp squib were they and how much of a factor was that in the oil price? >> i think it was significant. one issue that we're seeing when we hear comments from opec is that they feel like they were horribly misled by the u.s. and being told to increase output but then those sanctions dent go through entirely i think there is some concern is how much can they continue to respond to u.s. requests from that side. >> it seems as though again,

looking at some of these headlines while we wait for the official statement, the question is -- the other big question is whether or not they can really parse out the cuts within the countries. it's one thing to say opec will cut by 1.5 million barrels per day, it's another thing to get countries to buy into it the big question is whether or not russia, opec plus, would be willing to cut production, their threshold and tolerance for lower oil prices is much higher than it is for saudi arabia. >> exactly the russia element makes me wonder if we won't get a clear answer until tomorrow about quantity and a clear answer on whether or not they could be cut. with the russia line, it is the distribution of those cuts that are important. russia and saudi arabia are the key players. unless we get agreement from them any announcement doesn't really mean anything >> essentially opec plus is now two countries.

>> more comments from khalid al fal falih, he says the cuts are between 500,000 and 1.5 million barrels per day, more or less what we expected also saying if everyone is not willing to cut now we, saudi arabia, will wait until they are. does that leave saudi arabia with a lot of wiggle room? does it leave them with leverage over the united states is that about the relationship between u.s. and saudi >> i would have to say saudi arabia is in a difficult position when it comes to the relationship with the u.s. there's been so many events over the last few weeks that they have to take into consideration. just thinking about in terms of those numbers, i think if we have a number -- if there is an announcement of a cut and it's less than 1.3, the market won't be happy if it's 1.3, i expect a slight move because of technicals if it's over 1.3, i would expect a rally. cuts take a while to come

through. it takes about two, three months for those productions to hit the market >> the iran oil minister saying the oil market surplus is at least 1.3 million barrels per day, that's your point, that's the number people are looking forward to let's talk about macro a bit there is a significant drop in the oil price. again, this has been another headwind to risk-on sentiment. and we've seen a lot to of the energy sectors get hit some of the big energy names also some people are saying that a lower oil price could be a headwind for the u.s. economy going into next year what does the world look like with oil trading at $60 >> it's been really interesting what's happening with oil. what we tended to see is as the oil price falls, which is mainly due to supply cycle, people are reading into it as a sign post for global growth next year. i don't think that's what it is. i think it's been driven by supply oil prices should pick up on the

fundamental side i think for the u.s. standpoint, yes, low oil prices are good for consumers. now the u.s. is an oil exporter. from a capex side it hits them as well. what it means also for the shale industry you and i were chatting about this offline we have seen a widening in high-yield credit spreads. for people who don't follow this, high yield tend to track the price of oil closely about a quarter of the issuance in that space has come from the energy market. what does this mean for markets linked to oil? not just the blue chips, but if we don't get a bounce in the oil price today that could send serious signals and could be the canary in the coal mine for this next leg of risk off when it comes to assets. >> given that high yield is such

a huge proportion of energy companies, if we don't get that cut and you see higher oil prices, i expect high yield spreads to blow up why hasn't it blown up earlier it's catching up with equity markets if we continue to see low spreads, if it stops twr wh it is, that should be taken as a point of optimism. >> coming back to what we've been saying and piecing it together, we're trying to determine the trajectory of risk from here. we did have that bounce on monday since then sentiment has fizzled out. we had bad news on the trade truce side, bad news on u.s./china relations and now it appears also bad news on the commodities outlook, which could potentially be more bad news for the credit markets. putting all of these things together, what we thought would be positive risk events have actually turned into negative

catalysts for the market >> i think so. again, i think it's important to look at it from a longer term perspective. look at fundamentals i think what we have is an issue that there is going to be a u.s. slowdown next year we're not expecting recession. within that, if there is a u.s. slowdown continued trade concerns, u.s. equities will continue to struggle that doesn't mean there's no opportunities elsewhere. there is a genuine potential for em asia to have a better year next year. they just need a catalyst. that could be a weaker dollar. with credit, credit has to be treated with concern if things blow up, it is then the canary in the coal mine. it's not a case of just going into cash. absolutely not i want to ask about some of the internal dynamics. why does it matter, if it matters, that car decided edtar

decided to leave why do we care if qatar leaves >> there was an interview there yesterday where he was talking about this how important is it. qatar is very, very small, so why does it matter the first signs that this collusion is breaking out is a concern for oil markets. i think that's what it is. it's the psychological impact. >> is that especially in the context of this huge ramp up we've seen in the last decade of u.s. production? >> absolutely. they have to keep in mind what's going on in the u.s. they are trying to keep the collusion together they had this great agreement two years ago, which was also greeted with skepticism about how long it could last so there's a huge amount of politics but i think it will be surprising and concerning if we

don't get that cut coming through. >> just looking at the oil curves, some people are saying the flatness of the oil curve is a reflection on, again, peoples bearishness when it comes to deman growth for ned demand growth for next year. if people believe these cuts would be sustainable and that demand would pick up in 2019, the oil curves would not be as flat as they are now you would see an uptick for longer data oil futures. >> there has been that flattening it's reflecting general concerns about global growth. i think it has gone too far. we do know there will be a slowdown coming. there will be weaker oil demand going into 2019. but of the level thais bngt ei priced in now, the market has gone too far >> there a trade to be done in oil? i am a family man.

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breaking news, futures plunge as wall street wakes up to a major market selloff. we're digging into that big slide. that is straight ahead. arrested huawei's chief financial officer taken into police custody in canada she could be extradited to the u.s. those details coming up also straight ahead. and decision day opec ministers about to make a major announcement on production we are live at opec's headquarters in vienna it's thursday, december 6, 2018. "worldwide exchange" begin