Skip to main content

tv   Squawk Alley  CNBC  December 7, 2018 11:00am-12:00pm EST

11:00 am
good morning it is 8:00 a.m. in vancouver the huaway cfo is due in court it is 11:00 a.m. on wall street. "squawk alley" is live ♪ ♪
11:01 am
good friday morning. welcome to "squawk alley." i am carl quintanilla, contessa brewer is back at post 9, jo john -- jon fortt is here. we are outside the courthouse where the cfo is expected for her bail hearing morgan stanley chairman stephen roach is onset and byron wien joins us at the top of the half hour if that weren't enough, another price target cut on apple, this time from morgan stanley, following ubs. "squawk alley" has the analysts behind that note first, markets are taking a blow dow down 180 bob pisani has more. >> this is what makes everybody nuts, discussions on trade talks. we move the markets with larry kudlow's discussion. look at what's happening you go into the markets. markets open
11:02 am
you have positive momentum on the jobs report. the sentiment is with us here is larry, comes on with us here and says comments that larry kudlow was typically make. for example, progress, get a lot done in 90 days on trade talks he would consider extending that truce if good progress on tariff discussions. all positive we go up 15 points in the s&p, then drift around, then peter navarro on another network he says if progress is not made in 90 days, we will reinstate tariffs essentially. down, 15 this is what makes everybody crazy. it is hard to get a consistent pattern in all of the discussions. and you get the usual things that tend to happen, but with all of the trade names, boeing, the same patterns, all of the big trade names that are represented tend to move to the down side. exactly the same thing boeing moving to the down side
11:03 am
this is part of the problem that we've got here with the whole discussion, guys we have essentially like you're in in in a play. they are both in the play but don't appear to be on the same play they're on stage but almost like they're not participating in the same play. it has sort of elements of absurdism about the whole thing. those of you that care about the levels, we hit the old lows yesterday. those are holding. if you care about technical, that's the important thing we're above important levels >> theater and markets at the same time. steve liesman has more on the job numbers. >> today's jobs report being seen by economists as soft but not weak justifying the forecast for an
11:04 am
economy that's cooling but not one about to experience a big chill. rsm, they wrote strongly implies recession is not looming just over the horizon bankrate, this is far from the grinch who stole christmas the outlook is for sloerg hiring but not a halt in job creation here are the numbers 155,000. that was less than expectation of 198 some october jobs were down. average hourly wages less than expected, up 0.2%. unemployment unchanged job growth was strong in education and health services, housing, retail. but the gain we got in manufacturing told economists tariffs were not dragging on jobs, at least not yet what's it mean for the fed you're probably asking we think this will not be enough to deter the fed from hiking in december, but will allow the fed
11:05 am
to slow down and look around beforedeciding the next move 80% chance of a december rate hike, not pressing greater than 50% chance, but first 2019 hike doesn't happen until september a month ago, markets had 60% chance on the first 2019 hike in march. the doves are flying in mass, jon. >> we're going to stick with jobs citi out looking at what tech companies are hiring roku the leader of facebook, twitter, zillow, netflix to discuss, we are joined by senior internet analyst mark may. great to have you with us. >> thanks for having me. >> how should investors understand the report. some companies are stacked up better, they're known to be places that have maybe an easier time getting talent. others may have job listings that don't get filled as
11:06 am
quickly. is it fell o-- velocity? >> the reason we do this is because we think job postings is forward indicator of hiring down the road what we have been seeing is a healthy rate of growth, 2 to 3%, month on month job gains or hiring indicators as forward indicator based on postings indicators more recently in october, november time frame, we have seen a slow down, especially for google and facebook which are probably the most aggressive growers of head count year to date seeing early signs of slow down in hiring as forward indicator, based on the number of job postings on the site amazon is the largest hirerer. facebook and google, again, some early signals there, which ties in a bit with the report today
11:07 am
maybe we'll see a slowing of hiring going forward in the internet group. >> aws versus google cloud, aws six times as many job openings google has to hire people to catch up how should investors interpret that, just their capacity? >> this is another good reason to look at data, which is the new ceo of google cloud coming in, meant to bring in more focus on the enterprise. like you said, they need to hire more on the sales and service side to execute on the opportunity. will we start to see that show up in job postings we're not seeing that. he hasn't officially gotten started but it is another reason to track this data monthly they're way behind the competition in terms of hiring they need to catch up. we're not seeing it in data but we're certainly monitoring it. >> all right let's bring in mark mahaney,
11:08 am
joining us from one market in san francisco. mark, would you read the signals we're seeing in the market now more as positive in the sense that if companies are slowing hiring, it means they have enough people and costs may not go up as much as some might expect or maybe just they aren't as bullish on growth >> let's see, i would be very surprised if there was dramatic inflection from the investment spend levels we're seeing from these companies. i will leave the jobs number, tech jobs number aside for a second we're seeing about 110 billion in spending, look at the four faang stocks, 110 billion in spend in 2018. dramatic growth from '17, i don't think growth as great going into next year i think you should expect aggressive spend out of those four names and out of the
11:09 am
leading tech names for the foreseeable future ai, all the compute capacity to make ai work for consumers, that's the biggest driver of spend. that's more capex, but i don't think it abaites. >> all of the efforts that jpmorgan is using to get talent into the bank. where do faang companies get people that are prepared to work on ai? mark >> let's see, i think some of the -- there's two great centers of ai education and knowledge going on, two countries, u.s. and china, not much out of europe the real centers of ai excellence now are scattered in different universities in the u.s. and china and both markets, that's where the talent comes from, and it is fierce you want to give the best advice
11:10 am
for kids, learn coding, python, and mandarin, too. >> a lot of learning. >> we have been asking fund managers about facebook, mark. the complaint is they don't know the cost structure going forward. >> there are early signs that facebook is hiring is slowing based on job postings. that's something worth looking at the other thing is management went out of the way to provide a long term, medium to long term guidance on operating income, a lot of it, operating income mar margins, driven by expense growth if you look at the forecast, we get there by approaching close to it by end of next year. it is a sign, it helps to validate some job posting data if management expects margins to stabilize in the mid-30s and the street models for them to get there by next year, obviously
11:11 am
the hiring pace has to slow in the next six months to see line of sight the other thing mark brings up a good pointe, it is not just hiring that's driving expense growth, capex has been off the charts for large faang, we're 80 to 90 billion run rate in capex. up 60% a lot of it is data center build out, facebook and google are no longer leasing and outsourcing data centers, building it themselves, and investing ahead of growth and vr and other intensive video intensive programs that's also a very important point. >> any way to link that to assign how much is due to repatriation or tax cuts >> we haven't seen a big change in behavior with our companies related to that. one point on capex and data centers combined with hiring,
11:12 am
these massive data centers, one center multiple football fields long, spending 500 million on the shell alone, a billion when you fill it with servers, they have 50 to 70 employees. it is interesting. automation, investment in technology yes, they have to hire ai engineers to build software that runs on those, but the operation of hiring is minimal it speaks to the automation. talked about robotics, there's a lot of that going on >> mark mahaney, you talk about trade impacts and china, a lot of times you go to hardware first, how much risk is there, volatility do you expect to see around the issues with china, huaway in particular, and if you expect to see anywhere >> it is small two companies that come to mind, the chinese internet names,
11:13 am
alibaba, export import names, or companies that facilitate exporting and importing. amazon gets a fair amount of product it sells, third party and first party retail from overseas, from china those are two companies. the other ones can be caught in the political cross hairs here, but it is not like any of them have dramatic presence to begin with it reduces chances in the next five years they'll have greater opening or opportunity in platform in china. >> jobs, trade, tech we covered a lot thanks have a great weekend now we're more than 450 point swing between the high and low of the day on the dow-jones industrial big show of "squawk alley" ahead. byron wien sets down to discuss market volatility. and former chairman of morgan stanley stephen roach joins us here on huaway and his
11:14 am
take on china trade tensions "squawk alley" back after a quick break. i am a family man.
11:15 am
11:16 am
i am a techie dad. i believe the best technology should feel effortless. like magic. at comcast, it's my job to develop, apps and tools that simplify your experience. my name is mike, i'm in product development at comcast. we're working to make things simple, easy and awesome. dow down 365, watching that, along with the cfo of huaway set to appear in court for a bail hearing. deirdre cooper has more on this story. >> reporter: she has been in custody in vancouver nearly a week and her hearing is scheduled to take place less than two hours
11:17 am
from now at the courtroom behind me 1:00 p.m. eastern. the judge will make the final decision whether to extradite meng to the u.s. if it goes away, she will walk out the doors today. if not, she has 30 days to appeal she was arrested in vancouver at the airport on saturday. the same day that president trump dined with chinese president in argentina reuters is reporting president trump was not aware of the arrest at that dinner but his national security adviser john bolton who was also at the dinner telling npr in an interview that he did have advance notice of the arrest the stakes are high. we have been talking about it the last day the state of u.s. china relations could hinge on this case earlier this morning, larry kudlow playing down the importance of the arrest in terms of trade talks have a listen. >> as i understand it we did ask
11:18 am
the canadian government to do this, and they have been very cooperative, we appreciate that very much. look, we have the sanctions on iran that runs against our policy why shouldn't we enforce that? i don't know, by the way, that that necessarily spills over into the trade talks >> reporter: in china, meng is considered corporate royalty and huaway is one of the most important and global companies as for the hearing today, we'll see what we get. details could be scant there's a publication ban at her request. >> you're saying after court we may not know very much about what happens with her? >> reporter: we may not know because of the publication ban and we haven't had confirmation. reports said this has to do with violations of sanctions and miss meng's role in it.
11:19 am
we should be hearing something on that. we will be seeing her, but not sure what we can report because of a publication ban which is used in these type of hearings, but mostly in criminal cases >> deirdre, thank you for keeping an eye on it hopefully we get a sense of what the next step is meanwhile, the president is trying to ease u.s. china trade tensions off the heels of that arrest he tweeted china talks are going very well. stephen roach, former morgan stanley chairman and yale university fellow with us here at post 9. first of all, how much does huaway's executive arrest matter in these trade talks we heard some rather conciliatory comments from the china's commerce department about meetings happening on opening the markets and intellectual property. >> for the two countries to come to a deal, contessa, you need an environment, a climate of mutual
11:20 am
trust and the huaway arrest certainly does not build a greater sense of trust between the two countries. i'm not saying it is going to lead to a disintegration of prospects coming together but it is not a plus. >> you heard bob pisani illustrating the decline in the markets when peter navarro mentioned if we can't get done what we need done in 30 days, then the tariffs go into effect. it is sort of a hard line pro-tariff stance we heard before does there need to be more consistent messaging from the administration on trade and what goals are? >> well, they take a step toward consistent messaging if they put a muzzle on peter navarro. he doesn't contribute in any way to a constructive environment between the two countries. it would be good to hear a more
11:21 am
balanced approach from the trump administration, whether it is from the treasury secretary or the silent robert lighthizer. >> stephen, when is the last time something like this huaway arrest happened? i can't recall to me it seems like if china arrested qualcomm cfo over something and didn't hear about it for days, i'm trying to get into context seriousness and likely reverberations in how trade happens between the two countries. >> well, i think best of my memory the last time there was this type of incarceration had to do with the executives from rio tinto in australia which is a different context, and that was instigated by the chinese. this is a very unusual development occurring in an extremely delicate time between the two countries. >> also, huaway has been under
11:22 am
some scrutiny from the united states. >> for a long time >> it is not like this is coming out of the blue. the other thing is we haven't spent a lot of time talking about it, in this hack, one of the things that reuters reported is there's some suspicion that the hack was done by people linked to the chinese government when you're talking about building a culture of trust,a head line like that doesn't contribute to trust. >> that's one of the problems with the whole issue is that we have duelling anecdotes. this person did that to whom and whatever i know a ceo who did this to that these charges are really serious and i think the thing that's lacking in them, you can get this in reading robert lighthizer's 182 page section 301 report is that the dispute
11:23 am
is lacking in scientific metrics for us to be able to judge the veracity of claims i read his report many times i taught a class in it in my course at yale it is a very flawed report with shaky evidence and then you get on shows like this people come on and say i know a ceo that was hacked or somebody was forced to transfer their technology and i can promise you i can come up with anecdotes on the other side that say the opposite there's no absolute truth, but we need to be more scientific and careful examining the allegations. >> what will you be looking for as an indication that the united states and china are ready to move forward on getting some of these trade dirchlss resolved? >> -- differences resolved >> you can break it into trade and the existential threat of intellectual property. the chinese buy reports after the december 1st dinner party are willing to deal on trade,
11:24 am
but i think they're probably very unwilling to deal on the intellectual property, technology transfer issue. that's where lighthizer dug his heels in it is like two ships passing in the night. >> corporate america cares about the most too, isn't it >> corporate america cares about having a stable and predictable relationship with china, wherever the chips fall, they want to move forward and deal with clarity and understanding of what the rules of the game are, and they don't know that now. we're on again, off again on tariffs, this threat, that threat, who's saying what. someone like peter navarro lobs in another bomb, it is not helpful to corporate america. >> you think china is ready to deal on trade imbalances
11:25 am
>> they always are i studied this a long time whenever there's a trade dispute with china, they always take out the wallet, say we'll buy some airplanes, soybeans, whatever, and they're doing it again but the big existential issue -- >> they will not bend? >> i think they'll make some moves but not in the way that lighthizer is looking for if you take his section 301 report literally. they want china to back off on things like made in china 2025 their plans to being globally powerful and artificial intelligence this is mart of china's future economic growth strategy and i don't think they're going to give ground on that. >> stephen roach, sounds like you have a class i would like to audit. >> sign up. >> pass, fail. >> i'm a tough grader. when we return, ubs cutting its price target on apple, citing weak iphone demand. the analyst behind that note
11:26 am
joins us next. first, a look at the worst performing stocks in the dow so far in today's session they're comingup emtel, caterpillar, ibm among th more "squawk alley" still ahead. don't go anywhere.
11:27 am
11:28 am
hey, what are you guys doing here? we've been helping you prepare and invest for retirement since day one. why would we leave now? because i'm retired now. so? we're voya. we stay with you to and through retirement... with solutions to help provide income throughout. so you'll still be here to help me make smart choices? well, with your finances that is. we had nothing to do with that, uh, tie. or the suit. or the shirt. voya. helping you to and through retirement.
11:29 am
welcome back the dow is near session lows down 388 points, and one component in particular apple remains under pressure as the streak continues to slash price targets and ratings on the stock, down more than 23% in two months one of the latest taking a cut, ubs. taking the price target to 210 a share from 225, citing the lightest purchase intention for iphone in the u.s. in five years, and lowest on record in china. joining us from one market in san francisco, timothy arcuri.
11:30 am
great to have you with us. you look at the iphone purchase intent, is it too early to say on the china side whether some trade tension and opinions on u.s. companies might be having impact or is it a broader issue with smart phone demand over there in general >> i think it is a lot of factors. i think that most of the weakness if you sort of go through the data, most of the weakness in survey data came out with the xr the new xr model is selling weaker than they thought in china. there are competitive models priced below where they're bringing in this model also, they're facing currency issues as well there i think there's a number of issues i'm not sure the trade issues are having that much effect on iphone demand yet.
11:31 am
>> how do you square that with the head of iphone product marketing saying the xr has been the top selling iphone version since it came out. were expectations just that high or is there a problem overall with high end x iphone demand? >> i think there's imbalance what they thought was sell and are selling. we don't know the numbers obviously, but if you look at what we think they're building, we think they're supplying 40% of new phones being supplied are xr if you look at the survey data, it suggests the demand is more like 20% of nthe phones should e xr from supply and demand, there's some imbalance suppliers have sounded pretty bad. i think they continue to sound
11:32 am
bad going forward. i think they're still going to have a bad narrative the next six months a lot of things are happening at apple, watches are selling great, services selling great. iphones, i think there's a bad narrative the next six months. >> one of the narratives of the fall has been what's the link between unit growth and eventual services growth, especially if you cater to the low end of the price spectrum how worried are you about that >> look, i think there's definitely a direct attach between services and price of the phone, people buying more expensive phones have more money to spend on services apple has said time and time again there's significantly more than half of iphone installed base that would imply 600 million, 650 million active iphones paying zero for services, nothing.
11:33 am
yes, there's an attach rate that scales with the pricing spectrum but if apple can come out with a new video bundle, come out with streaming service, something to get even 100 million users to pay $5 a month would move the needle that would add two points of growth to apple at the corporate level. it is a big deal that they can push on next year. >> lots of questions on unit growth we're not going to get the answers, either. thank you, tim the losses on the dow are down around 400 points now the s&p and nasdaq are off between a percent and a half and 2% european markets are just closing. seema mody has today's action. >> here's how the european markets are ending a volatile week. europe has a higher exposure to the energy industry than the
11:34 am
u.s. germ german dax is flat look at the sector that shows you where we saw gains and losses, oil and gas leading the way. laggards, health care and auto did end in positive territory. for the week, stocks down 2%, somewhat in line of the s&p 500. down more than 3%. looking to next week, key brexit vote for tuesday, the 11th theresa may looking to get that deal passed by parliament. if she does not, it could spur a political crisis we're going to keep a close eye on the pound in addition to that brexit vote, ecb meeting thursday central bank expected to end net asset purchases in december and certain parts of the economy worth watching the policy meeting set for later in the week, amid rising trade tensions a group led by a sports wear
11:35 am
giant saying it made offer to acquire finland's amer sport it would be a deal valued $5.2 billion if it goes through, it would be the largest outbound transaction into europe. this comes as u.s., china sales have been on the decline. and elliott management has taken a stake in germany's bayer. that stock higher, 1% on the day. larger story is that bayer is under increased pressure in 2018 the stock down about 40% this year carl, back to you. >> thank you very much let's get to sue herera and get a news update on a busy friday hi, sue. >> it is indeed busy thank you, carl. good morning, everyone here is what's happening president trump announcing he will nominate william barr, former george h.w. bush's attorney general to serve in his administration in the same role.
11:36 am
he also said he will nominate state department spokesperson heather nauert to be the next ambassador to the united nations. time warner which houses cnn in new york city was evacuated because of a phoned in bomb threat police say after a search no devices were found all clear was given before midnight and the building reopened. north korea foreign minister is meeting with china's president and foreign minister in beijing talks come amid lack of progress in efforts to get north korea to reverse the drive to build a nuclear arsenal. and angela merkel bidding farewell as leader of the cdu party. they celebrated her 18 years as leader with a long-standing ovation. she told the crowd it was a great honor to have led them you're up to date. back downtown to you guys. >> sue, thank you very much.
11:37 am
end of an era there. dow down more than 400 points s&p down more than 40. apple has taken out its november low. goldman, sachs at the lowest level since the 2016 election. when we come back, byron wien will talk about the selloff and what investors should do now in a me mont
11:38 am
i still can't believe how incredible the screen is on the new iphone xs. and our unlimited plan really takes things to the next level with your choice of the best in tv, movies, or music. it's the perfect holiday upgrade. i know what i'm asking santa for this year. you still write letters to santa? no. please. i send him emails. can i get his email address? oh... i don't feel comfortable sharing it. get the iphone 10 s and our unlimited plan with your choice of the best in tv, movies, or music. more for your thing. that's our thing. when it might be time to buy or sell? with fidelity's real-time analytics, you'll get clear, actionable alerts about potential investment opportunities in real time. fidelity. open an account today.
11:39 am
(tonand all thro' the house. 'twas the night before christma, not a creature was stirring, but everywhere else... there are performers, dancers, designers the dads and the drivers. there are doers of good and bringers of glee. this time of the year is so much more than a bow and a tree. (morgan vo) those who give their best, deserve the best. get up to a $1,000 credit on select models now during the season of audi sales event. another whip saw day for the markets. dow down almost 400 points,
11:40 am
extending losses in near session lows trade tensions continue to weigh down the major indexes we talked to larry kudlow this morning about the economy and the latest on the u.s. china trade talks. >> things could change and that china wanted them to change quote, unquote immediately that's a word i never heard from china because they never say yes to anything so far in our bargaining this year i asked him what does immediately mean he said basically immediately means immediately. and that's a good sign >> joining us, the vice chairman of black stone solutions group, byron wien who told us about a month ago he still expects the s&p to close around 3 k end of the year good to see you again. you said we may not get to 3k but may get close. but we are running out of time >> we are running out of time. but i'll tell you, carl, i'm a
11:41 am
buyer. >> you are i know you're not easily spooked, but you say you are basically positive, reasonable valuations got pessimism mixed in here. what makes you a buyer >> well, the pessimism is a part of it. look, the world economy is still growing at 3.7%. china is growing better than 6%. they need a lot of stimulus to do that, but they're doing it. trade talks could turn around at any moment the fed has already indicated it has a certain amount of flexibility. seems to me if we have a selling climax, which we may be in the process of creating, stocks are a buy. >> what does this climax, what levels do we need to hit are you in the 2400 camp >> i don't know. at the beginning of the year thought it might get to 2300
11:42 am
but we're forming it now i don't know how much lower it will go. it always goes farther than you expect, but i think we're in a buying range so we're in a range where the market is looking for a bottom we just need volume to pick up >> byron, you mention optimism over the u.s., china trade talks. how much pause does it give you when you hear about the arrest of the huaway exec in vancouver and the way that was communicated or not within the administration >> that was clearly a setback and there were two parts of the administration upgrading independently. if one had coordinated with the other, it might have had a different outcome, but i think we're going to get through that. it was an incident that took place some time ago, shipment of goods to iran, against the
11:43 am
sanctions. my feeling is that we're going to work our way through this trade agreement. china needs it, we need it when two sides come to the table and both want a negotiation to a positive end, you usually get one. >> how do you do that, byron, without the white house being embarrassed given all of the complaints they've risen, all the issues they've risen how do you get a deal that's easily done that doesn't just gloss over deeper issues we know we have with that country? >> yeah, but something out of the meeting was xi saying a positive negotiation was set, presumably it was under way, larry kudlow indicated that. and then the huaway situation erupted and that was a setback, but i think it can get back on
11:44 am
track quickly as the chinese indicate >> i don't want to keep throwing negative data points at you but i have to ask what you make of deutsch below nine, goldman below 180. saw what happened with citi shares yesterday how does that resonate with you? >> look, there's too much capacity in the financial system and so some of those companies are going to be hurt but my view is they've descended to levels which exaggerate the negatives. so i'm not a buyer of those stocks but i think they're reasonably priced. >> byron, we always look to you for some reason. we have to keep it short, given the packed news day. see you soon byron wien >> thank you, carl have a good weekend. one of the highest valued
11:45 am
biotech companies, mid point of the range, values are $7.5 billion, offering was larger than expected raises 620 million and makes it the largest biotech ipo ever bertha coombs is watching this as well? we're going to get to her a little later nice to see that finally opening for trade. all right. we're looking at the cow off about 330 points -- dow off 330 points "squawk alley" continues next. the future of technology investing
11:46 am
lies beyond the tech sector. it's about technology transforming every sector. ♪ at pgim, our bottom-up approach uses a technology lens to identify long-term winners.
11:47 am
from energy... to real estate... to retail. finding such opportunities for alpha is the true value of active investing. and around the world, you have a partner in that pursuit. pgim: the global investment management businesses of prudential. the global investment management what do you look for i want free access to research. yep, td ameritrade's got that. free access to every platform. yeah, that too. i don't want any trade minimums. yeah, i totally agree, they don't have any of those. i want to know what i'm paying upfront. yes, absolutely. do you just say yes to everything? hm. well i say no to kale. mm. yeah, they say if you blanch it it's better, but that seems like a lot of work. no hidden fees. no platform fees. no trade minimums. and yes, it's all at one low price. td ameritrade. ♪
11:48 am
i am scott walker. what does today's jobs report mean for the fed and your money? we debate the stock market next move, volatility remaining high. plus the gospel according to pete the influential analyst he always mentions made a big move on apple what does it mean for his position on that stock we'll find out and our call of the day gives tesla a big boost. our traders, are they buying it? we'll find out at noon jon, about ten away. see you then >> see you then. mederna opened for trading bertha coombs is with us with more. >> reporter: the company price in the mid range, $23 a share, upped its offering to more than 26 million shares, has a valuation of somewhere north of
11:49 am
$7 billion, although it is a tough take in biotech space. biotech sector hit with everything else. the mederna ticker harvest genetics to help you fight off diseases it is a hot space. they were the number one cnbc disrupter in 2015. still not profitable, nonetheless, a company that has 21 drugs in the pipeline ten of them now in clinical trials not the best debut one would have liked, but when a stock is down like this, you can say they didn't leave any money on the table. tough take overall, guys back to you. >> thank you for that. major averages taking a turn for the worse. off session lows ibm, caterpillar, intel leading
11:50 am
them lower rick santelli has a special jobs friday santelli exchange hi, rick >> you're correct. my special jobs friday guest, ed lazear is withbush ed, thank you for joining me this morning >> nice to be with you, rick, thank you. >> well, let's start out with your sepperceptions paying close attention. moving from 7.8 to -- 7.4 to 7.6, up 0.2, very interesting. wages, especially year over year still hovering in a zone we haven't seen since the spring of '09. >> right so i would say this is a mixed report and while people thought it was a pretty good report i think the couple of numbers you just pointed to are significant.
11:51 am
the wage growth is good. obviously the jobs headline number isn't quite as high as it's been but, again, look at the last three months rather than the actual month that we're in right now if you look at the last three months it's 170,000. we still need only about 130,000 to keep up with population growth, so that says we're still recovering jobs, still growing at a rate better than we need to keep up with population. so that's good the point you made both about the u-6, the unemployment, and also about ours are the most significant. i always look at hours, the weekly hours, down a tenth as you know a tenth doesn't sound like much but it's the equivalent of 400,000 jobs that's a big deal. whether it will persist, i've seen this before in the past few months we see it tick down and
11:52 am
restated, goes back up, but it is something to watch. it is a leading indicator and i would say that's relevant. >> i look at the stock market and i see it's having a bit of a tough time again today interest rates, though, seem to have stabilized on the long end. is there a feedback loop in this number or in the three month or six month trends you pay close attention to in the motivation space jay powell and company should find considering or will have any effect on future policy for increases in the market? >> well, sure, and it goes both ways feedback is what you want to think about. my gauge for where we're going in the future is always the change in the s&p 500. that hasn't been spectacular the past few weeks that's going in the wrong direction. that tells us that we're actually expecting -- the market is expecting growth to decline so what is the fed's reaction to
11:53 am
that well, there's the feedback, the first feedback is something we've talked about in the past we believe, you and i both believe, that we should have been at a more aggressive pace in terms of raising rates in the past but, unfortunately, we're not there now. the question is what do you do this is kind of being an hour late to somewhere you want to be and then the question, do you double your speed on the freeway. probably not a good idea the fed and chairman powell have to be looking at this right now. and when i see it, i would say, you know, this is something they probably are going to have to think about a bit more cautiously it's kind of unfortunate because the insurance policy that you've talk about them wanting to buy in the past, they probably haven't bought enough insurance. they're at the stage they would like to cash some of that in perhaps or at least slow down on buying more insurance, and they're in a bit of a bind right
11:54 am
now. i would guess they will slow relative to what they thought they were going to do. >> the big issue globally, of course, is that the rest of the world was supposed to do better and the u.s. was leading that charge at the beginning of the year but that activity has diverged rates in europe are in the mid-20s. we see that spread staying ever so wide between our ten year and policy, well, the ecb will end their program at the end of this year in terms of bond buying but at these rates with no insurance there is a big risk of their policies backfiring causing more erosion in our economy. your thought >> i agree there's no question it goes in that direction. we don't reloy on them that heavily. i wish we were a bit more of a trading nation than we are but if you look at us, we have about
11:55 am
20% of our gdp consists of trade. if you compared us to germany they have 70%. so we are not quite as heavily influenced by outside events as some of the other countries in the world are. certainly not a positive when you see europe slowing down, that they have run out of ammunition in terms of the things they can do probably to a bigger extent than we are in >> what about the capital side of the equation? when it comes to japan, europe, china, we can look at how much we trade and the comparisons and, no, we're not an export economy. it's priced globally like things like oil your final thought >> i agree the big twens is between our
11:56 am
rates and their rates. when you think capital flows that still works in the favor of the united states. we're not in as bad shape as some of the other places in the world, even in capital markets >> excellent ed, it's always refreshing to hear your take on the employment report every first friday of the month. thank you for joining me back to carl and the gang. >> thank you very much, rick san telly. obviously keeping our eye on the sell-off the w ddoisown 414. when bob barnett made the first commercial wireless phone call in 1983. yes, this is bob barnett in chicago. (john) we were both working on that first network that would eventually become verizon's. back then, the idea of a nationwide wireless network
11:57 am
was completely unreasonable. but think about how important that first call was to our lives. it opened the door to the billions of mobile calls that we've all made in the last 34 years. sometimes being first means being unreasonable. i'm proud i was part of that first call, and i'm proud that i'm here now as we build america's first and only 5g ultra wideband network with unprecedented wireless capacity that will not only allow for phones to be connected, but almost everything-- transforming how we all live, once again. (bob barnett) as you know, this call today is the first call that we've made on the cellular system.
11:58 am
when it might be time to buy or sell? with fidelity's real-time analytics, you'll get clear, actionable alerts about potential investment opportunities in real time. fidelity. open an account today. fidelity. hey, what are you guys doing here? we're voya. we stay with you to and through retirement.
11:59 am
so you'll still be here to help me make smart choices? well, with your finances that is. we had nothing to do with that tie. voya. helping you to and through retirement. almost every dow component is red chevron really the only exception. the dow down 422 not a surprise given oil is up $2 and change. >> we were talking about this deal with opec and the russia-led allies. 2.2 million barrels a day. we're looking at wti up, brent crude up almost 5% and brent crude is $62.93 a barrel
12:00 pm
>> market cap rates between microsoft, amazon and apple. microsoft in the lead, as it were apple's flat stock wise. amazon is up 40% >> apple will take you back to the spring have a good weekend. let's get to "the half." thanks, i'm scott wapner what would that mean for the future of stocks and your money? it's noon and this is "the halftime report. >> did the number 155 just change the entire picture for the fed, the markets and the american economy an apple analyst made a big move on the stock and mike mayo is here after a terrible week for the financials down more than 5% see what h

82 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on