tv Fast Money CNBC December 7, 2018 5:00pm-5:31pm EST
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many chances to sell the market around the levels and just above. and people are looking for signs it's sold out. >> great stuff, mike as always contessa great having you who here. >> great to be here. >> thank you for filling in. next week brexit on the hordsen we watch for that. that does for "closing bell" today. >> and "fast money" begins right now. have a great weekend "fast money" starts right now live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city a sometimes square melissa lee. tim seymour, steve grasso karen finerman and dan nathan. tonight stocks plunging back to the fall lows after the big reversal and one market bull explains why it's messy into year end plus the fang inferno rages on with netflix down more than 6% how much worse the traders weigh in we start with the selloff, the dow dropping nearly 700 points closing down about 50 oh points. the s&p 500 falling back to correction the nasdaq plunging deeper into a correction so as the market goes from bad to worse, what can stop this
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selling? tim. >> well i wish i had all the answers. i do think there is a dynamic where we need more clarity on what if any progress is realist in three months or 90 days which is the extension we had. we have more clarity out of the fed. i think the fed needs to be careful because the fed is talking a tight rope of credibility. and i think going back to data dependent and walking back where they were in october where i think they overstepped bounds a little bit i think they got a little too emotional. that's something the market is deal with. the reality is we are getting to a place we need to to hear corporations start to express confidence we need another earnings season dairy say because the outlook in this season for the fourth quarter was understandably cautious and corporate america, corporate world, needs to make us feel better about growth. >> we got news in the past hour about facebook increasing the buyback. >> i like that but let's rip through those. the fed is not dovish. the fed is still tightening.
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if they don't do anything he let's 50 billion off are roll off that's the give lep of raising every meeting. >> every month. >> 50 billion every month. >> every month >> annualized basis of 100 basis points of actual tightening of the fed funds rate. >> you have 600 rolling off a year which is huge they're not doing anything there. we have no earnings coming up. there is nothing that can save the market. >> wait, hold on nothing -- nothing that can save the market, full stop. >> you said. >> drop mic. i mean. >> what would stop the selloff i'm saying. >> did youborrow dan's bear zblut he zipped up and cozy in that. >> think about it. we went from a trade war to truce to now the 90-day war of words for the next three months. nothing is going to be able to save this market right now >> there are a lot of things you hated about today, karen. >> yes a lot of things. >> she has a list. >> the huawei thing i hated i still still hate it i think it gets worse the idea that we are saying it
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has no effect on the trade -- that seems nearly impossible to me. >> yes. >> that's one. i hate the trump and members -- trump administration sort of trying out people to try to talk the market up. it's sort of the reverse of crying wolf. it's crying everything is great. i hate that. shows they are way too focused on the market. the third i think the fed backing off even possibly in december that's bad i think not a good thing i think the fed raising in december and then. >> they are raising in december. >> i hope in this case but then saying, you know, now we are talking a pause or we're going to be data dependent or we are approaching neutral rate whatever they want to say. >> right. >> but i hated this potential of even december maybe. the fourth thing, i think john kelly leaching i think is a bad thing. i think he brought real discipline to the administration. >> stability. >> as much as one could. >> consistenty. >> that's very important i view that as big negative.
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last, really not least but just last on my list because it's a short show, the b.aff warning. >> keep going qb sister let's get to 10. >> in germany. i think this is to me similar to the ppg red flag. >> in october. >> what -- real quick, so she doesn't sound like there is anything saving the market either right now. >> but the way you said it it sounded definitive. >> let me say this. >> it was more dramatic. >> i'm always long i'm not becoming short normally in a market like this when things traed down no basingers i sell and buy stuff i did neither today. i don't have a bear suit. >> right. >> just saying this. a couple people said data dependent in the fed and you look at fed fund futures pricing 70% probability of increase on december 19th. >> and it got at low as 60 a week ago the fed is looking at data data is not great.
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looking at revised employment data, the rolling ample over three months is 170, well below the 12-month average well below the 2017 ample. things are slowing here. we're anniversarying the tax cuts and the potential for fiscal stimulus or some sort of infrastructure package is not particularly great right now to me as you head into the end of the year you talk about you want to see corporate enthusiasm or some or the of on theism we had it yesterday all day on the network, jamie dimon randall stephenson and they wanted to be very. >> rates are moving higher preponderates are moving higher growth is slowing. the calculusing changed. i don't think we can get back to old highs let alone new highs. the bar is much lower for where the markets can go and that's why you see a sell the bounces versus the buy the dip mentality. >> going back for the huawei arrest, you think that derails or negatively impacts discussion was china. >> i think we will have some sort of.
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>> why did it happen i'm perplexed. the timing of it all happens hon a saturday or sunday then what happens after that china had plenty of time to respond to it. so bolton knew trump knew xi knew. everyone knew. >> in fact they knew at the g20 when they were cutting the deal. >> but that's why -- practically huawei is a huge buyer of u.s. semi conductors. this or that >> but that's not the reason why the trade is going to be taken off track. >> we don't know the biggest issues >> we would have known it already that's my point. china would have come out and bashed it. >> no, no. >> i think it was an olive branch if everyone knew around the table what is the downside xi knew he was giving -- he is more aligned with zte than with huawei it was an olive branch he knew. he figured let trump -- i'll give you a little bit. we would have seen china come out and pound the table if it wasn't. >> china doesn't do that
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>> oh, i -- >> they don't respond in an emotional way to a headline like that they will not do that. that's not the way this is the equivalent of steve jobs son arrested and extradited to china. >> the steve jobs who is number two at apple. >> china said they were going to act. >> whatever, steve. >> not whatever. you're saying. >> i didn't finish the sentence so i can't bottom line here is i do think this is a big deal i agree with karen i think the fact that the administration believes that they can continue to kind of jaw bone and really ultimately aggravate the situation. >> let's listen to the latest what the administration says about trade in the last hour hearing from white house adviser peter navarro he says he is skeptical of a deal with china. >> we simply can't allow the chinese to continue the forced technology transfer, the the theft of intellectual property, cyberer intrusions in networks,
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the massive subsidies of state owned enterprises. all of these things were addressed by the chinese president in 142 different items in response to our own demands >> so one take away, is that the u.s. really doesn't want to give up much on the front they are asking for big things can these things in your opinion be resolved in 90 day sns. >> no, they just can't i think anyone with a brain other than navarro know that is. what we are talking about is okay you want to buy l and g soybeans bet get the semi conductors moving. that trade that speaks to the deficit that the white house or at least trump is focused on that's fine. that's the normal puts and takes that we would have in a trade war. the other stuff are decades in the making, likely to take quarters if not years to fix that's why we are not going to have a quick resolution any time soon and the only point i want to bring back to is let's talk about u.s. multiple nationals. let's talk about how investors are perceiving businesses, why
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they don't have any clarity, why semi conductor stocks act poorlily why apple just had one of the biggest bulls take down her numbers because they are worried about china units. you know who the number one hand set seller in china it's huawei. >> huawei. >> there are a lot of ways they can come back at us branchs or carrots or whatever you want to took there is a lot of mess between getting bigger issues. >> stocks are testing a critical level but the next guest says the santa clause rally is on able let's bring in steve the portfolio manager at fed rated investors. >> hi. >> when is santa clause coming. >> it's going to be a bumpy sleighing ride if he comes. >> if he comes. >> if he comes all the concerns raised here are correct it's a matter of degree. our view is yes the economy is slowing be, rates rising inflation built. we don't svee a recession. economic slowdown.
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in that environment what's priced in? the earning growth is 5 to 10% the the growth is strong gchd at 2.5. at some point you price this that in you find a bottom and march higher how long the volatility takes is anyone's guess that's the push and pull on wall street is that the fundamentals remain okay going forward but the volatility and the fact we broke below key support levels opens up more downside risk be careful how you trade from here to there. >> how do the markets priced in five% earnings growth next year. >> i think the markets are pricing in a deacceleration and uncertainty around the number. they don't understand the impacts of tariffs going to 25% on the earnings. if we do export controls next year how do you price that in for tech companies i think if you knew for certain we were getting 5% earnings growth that's better than this uncertainty we have right now. and that's why trade certainty really can help. >> hold on, steve breaking news on the sentencing of former trump lawyer michael cohen let's get to ylan muy for the
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details. >> new york prosecutors saying that michael cohen, president trump's former personal attorney should serve a substantial prison term as after financial crimes and lying to congress generally he would says 61 to 53 months in prison it's important because it detailed the scope of cooperation with the prosecutors. the cooperation appears limited. it says repeatedly that cohen declined to provide full information about the scope of any additional criminal conduct in which he may have been engaged or had knowledge it also said that he did provide useful information but that he decided not to pursue full cooperation. therefore it said the special counsel can't say that his overall level of cohen's cooperation to be significant. the prosecutors also suggested his reasons for working with the special counsel's office may have been self-serving it said any suggestion that is his meetings with law enforcement reflect a self-less
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and unprompted about face are overstated guys, cohen provided here only limited high pressure. we know that manafort's plea deal in exchange exchange for cooperation went sour we expect more details soon. the question now is whether this means robert mueller is getting the information that he is seeking, how far are we away from a conclusion to his report? we are still digging through all of these court documents and we'll get back to you if we find anything else melissa. >> ylan, thank you how does this impact markets. >> i do think that as much as we don't like to talk about politics in the context of a market show, i think that the white house this week is a factor i think as much as we have tooen seen tur lens and chaos in the past whether the mueller probe is coming to a conclusion we have seen resignations i think the white house is part of it. >> steve how about you. >> it impacts volatility but not direction of the markets over
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the next 12 to 24 months but it can cause gyrations even the bickering on something like trade with, and and the good cop bad cop routine you don't know who to listen to. and the markets going back and forth it's short term volatility. >> how do you recommend investors invest over the next less say half a year. >> look, you know we've been bullish a long time we were 11% overweight equities in the summer we brought that down to under 4% today this is not the time to be a hero you still should be pointed long if a recession is not coming if earnings growth of 5 or 10% comes through you need to look at parts of the market really beaten up, the stuff no one wants to buy right now parts of energy, materials, parts of discretionary. >> housing >> yeah, maybe you usually get a seasonal play on that coming out of the -- it's the halloween to super bowl sunday trade if you get any pullback on rates, you know there is value here when it's really crapped out buy a little bit. >> steve, thank you good to see
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thank you. >> netflix leading lower down 6% but you won't believe the name in the group dan nagt isn't buying. >> what? what i don't believe he buys anything. >> it's the retail nightmare before christmas the stocks getting crushed during what should be a huge month. we tell how bad. and tesla son a tear inches away from the all-time high one trader thinks going to new heights. live in times square in new york city much more "fast money" right after this yeah, i'm afraid so. it's okay. this is what we've been planning for. knowing what's important to you is why 7 million investors work with edward jones.
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welcome back to "fast money. more fang fallout today. check out losses at facebook, amazon, netflix and alphabet netflix down lower down 6% even uglier these tech stocks have seen hundreds of billions in market cap losses since the 52-week highs trade it or fade it. >> perfect game here trade it or fade it. fang style guys's not here don't have to explain the rules. dan. facebook trade it or fade it. >> yeah, i think we are close to fading this -- excuse me trading it has nothing to do with the buyback. when you think about this we know what happened i know tim you got op-edsen on cnbc.com but i think expect aches are down dramatically for next year. at least we have some sort of earnings expectations that are flat year over year because of the spend that they have to do we don't know about regulatory or further regulatory costs. but estimates for sales growth are still 24% year over year that's kind of astounding and if
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the earnings expectations are dire this is way cheap for 2019. >> think of apple. think about expectition as and change in business which i no know it's apples and oranges except for the fact that facebook we talk about instagram and other businesses that aren't in the price that's great int gram is growing. you will tell me the core business won't contract. >> it is contracting growing 30 would be 40% next year supposed grow 24%. >> but you think the bar is low. >> i do when you think about that they have a billion what's app user yet to be monetized there is stuff to be done. >> i thought yesterday facebook was interesting. there were some terrible articles, really read poorly yet the stock even on the terrible day when the market was getting crushed. i thought it hung in fl well that goes for the sentiment which i think is pretty washed out. >> all right let's move on to amazon. steve grasso, trade it or fade it. >> this got tide up in the value
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versus growth. i think it's still there has a lot of room to fall. it's up 40% year to date that's relevant because if they come for these i love they did that if they come for these there is more fat. >> i'd trade it. >> really. >> steve is pointing out the stock could -- i think it could go to 1,500 that's the past level it has to trade to but if we rehard i multiple stocks in the poll position and amazon is something we talk about every night. nothing has change for these guys nef a good holiday. >> something did change when they quarter to reported the q 3 and guided q 4 down revenues down to 5% listen, the you just said in the a block we get earnings soon and if they confirm theyis in the lower guidance and guide down again. >> but the market priced that in. >> no the stock is up 10% from the lows two weeks ago, tim. >> but, again, the stock was bullet proof until that announcement it got priced into. >> just say it, dan, fade it.
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>> fade it. >> play the game. >> fade it. >> we got to move on netflix karen, trade it or fade it. >> netflix i got to fade it. i mean. >> love the girl. >> love the product but on valuation it's a air pocket. no low i could come close to. >> any traders of netflix? whoa, no. >> never trade to do in my life. >> once we get back to growth being bought these are the tech stocks. >> fade, fade, fade, fade across the board. last but not least, alphabet, tim trade it or fade it. >> the reason you might fade this are regulatory reason reasons you trade it for everything else. the core business isalive and well and seeing the costs are under control. multiple billion-dollar businesses unmonetized i think youtube is a juggernaut. i love the valuation i don't like the regulatory environment. i trade it. >> are you disregarding everything the company told you.
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the tack costs weren't uncontrolled. >> apple for more on apple on the tech fallout head over to cnbc.com. i'm melissa lee. you're watching cnbc the first on business worldwide. >> announcer: it was the best of times. it was the worst of times. at least that's what pot investors are saying and the cannabis king is breaking down the tale of two smoking stocks plus. >> that's hilarious. >> what's got elon musk feeling so guyedy? maybe it's because tesla stock is soaring back to all-time highs. while the rest of the market gets crushed and one trader will tell you why he thinks there is room to run much more "fast money" after the break. (baby crying)
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company that's from the gains earlier in the week. pot producer acreage hold pg announcing it's acquiring an edibles maker. even shares were flying high on deal talk that reversed the stock during the day now down 34% this week after a short seller big bet against the pot stock. is it a tale of two stocks this week even though afri was a takeout target what's the difference between the two names np cannabis king tim seymour is at the plasma to break it down. >> two companies doing two things this we can let's talk about why alt treeia is going and cronos and will control the company and 10% kwigs acquisition. they have a global footprint it's in germany, canada, israel. expansion into other sectors this company spent a lot of time on the science side, the geng o acquisition gets in the the synthetic side
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of krbds they do it through outside grower and farmers much like how the tobacco industry works which is another reason alt treeia likes their model better and compliance and credibility in a sector that ultimately has i think a lot of needs to continue to do that they will stand very much foor a sector that at least right now is being held to that credibility footprint. now, let's go to the next chart. let's just show why the stock market era sfoks act differently this is one year if you look at this this is the constellation deal it went up so it cronos. if you look at afria what happened this week, a short seller report. credibility questions about the latin american assets. you can see these guys went up here but look at the move it's mintz 68% to cronos since that point in fact you could make the argument that cronos outperformed even constellation since that point but afria is a ngt bellwether
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but called into question because of the concern about the core assets corporate governance, folks. this is a new sector, asset class. you have to look under the hood. >> tim you're in the space. >> i am. in cronos. but i'm in cronos and canopy tim quick we fwou i won't ask a quick question the valuation is becoming a problem for me and when you look at october 17th, the recreational legalization in canada all still below that level could that have been the pin cal for cannabis. >> time for the final trade. >> klu outperformed lately you sell it stay tuned at o. tell how. >> you karen. >> yes it was good enough for trade it or fade it good enough for final trade. facebook i like it on the buyback news >> steve. >> xlu one month three month and year to date, the only thing green on the screen buy it. >> stay tuned. >> i didn't invite you back. >> i'm back. i'm hungry for a big mack. mcdonald's is defensive in the environment. management is executing. mcdonald's gets you done
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>> all right well if that does it for us on fast back on monday at 5:00 p.m. eastern time doesn't move what's after the break. >> "options action" right after the break. >> a little extra time [leaf blower] you should be mad at leaf blowers. [beep] you should be mad your neighbor always wants to hang out. and you should be mad your smart fridge is unnecessarily complicated. but you're not mad, because you have e*trade which isn't complicated. their tools make trading quicker and simpler. so you can take on the markets with confidence. don't get mad. get e*trade and start trading today.
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live at the nasdaq market site after another wild week for the markets. the guys getting ready behind me in the meantime here is what's coming up on the show. >> stocks are getting crushed. and as investors run for cover, dan nathan says even the so-called safety sectors are dangerous. he will give us the trade. plus. look up in the sky it's a bird it's a plane. >> nope it's just tesla. taking off as the rest of the market crumbles. but if you missed the rally mike khouw has a way to get in. and dsh reta
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