. it is 5:00 a.m. on cnbc. breaking brexit news, british prime minister theresa may now fighting to save her job as her own party moves to vote her out of leadership. countdown to shutdown here president trump vowing to close the government if the border wall is not funded stocks are not fazed everything everywhere is higher now. huawei's cfo released from a canadian jail. the high stakes battle fa fror m view >> and how the china/u.s. beef

is not stopping one ipo but it does have some investors worried. it's december 12, 2018 and "worldwide exchange" begins right now. ♪ good morning good afternoon, good evening from wherever in the world you may be watching. i'm brian sullivan thank you very much for joining us it's a good morning if you're long stocks. pretty much everything everywhere is higher now dow futures up 254 keep this in mind, the dow needs to recover 1.4% in the next 13 trading days to end the year higher of course that's not including dividends, but still keeping track. the other question, will the ten-year note end the year under 3% on the yield again? we have not closed near that level since back in 2014 ten-year yield at 2.895, up just a tick this morning.

trade fight? huawei's cfo arrest? the market doesn't seem to care. in asia, all the markets higher japan up 2.5%. hang seng up 1.5 stocks in europe are spiking as well 1% gains across the board. that's not the top story the top story is that british prime minister theresa may is not just fighting for a brexit deal, she's fighting for her job and will fate a vote of no-confidence from her own conservative party today wilfred frost is joining us live from london on what we can expect >> yes uk prime minister theresa may will be facing a vote of confidence among her own mps as leader of the conservative party. and therefore as prime minister, to too. >> has confirmed he has received 48 letters from conservative

mps, so now there will be a vote of confidence in my leadership of the conservative party. i will contest that vote with everything i've got. >> that vote will take place around 1:00 p.m. eastern time today. it's been triggered because 48 of the 316 conservative mps have called for it. she now needs to win 158 or 50% to back her. if she does, her power will increase because she won't have to face another vote of confidence from her own mps for another 12 months. sterling here over two days is down since rumors of this vote of no-confidence started to pick up about 16 hours ago. but it's up today over the last couple of hours. why? senior cabinet ministers have come out loud and clear to back her. just think of the math on this it's taken an eternity to reach the 48 to trigger the vote, it's

a long way further to reach the 158 needed to oust her but that said this timing is as good as it could get for her challengers because the leavers and remainers alike dnt liidn'te her brexit deal. by the end of the day in london we'll know if theresa may's power has increased or if she's out of a job >> what roughly is our timeline? i know these things are not perfectly timed out. what is our timeline >> we expect the internal conservative party vote to happen around 1:00 p.m. eastern time it could be delayed by an hour or so the results to be announced an hour or two later than that. between 1:00 p.m. and 4:00 p.m. eastern time is when the action will take place. if she survives, she can't face another challenge from her own mps for 12months if she loses, we then move forward into a conservative party leadership vote.

any conservative mp can throw their hat into the ring. mps will vote to get the number of contenders down to two. that will then go out to the conservative party membership, about 124,000 across the country who will pick the winner out of the two candidates >> theresa may has been working on this brexit deal for the better part of two years, wilfred. if she loses this vote, if it goes to bringing in a new prime minister, to your point is it safe to say that would be a mighty setback for brexit? in a sense now you'll have somebody completely new who has not been at the negotiating table with the eu stepping in? >> very, very fair question. there are a lot of moving parts to it. this is the key one that people are talking about in terms of what this means for markets. as i mentioned, once this is down to two candidates, the vote goes out to the 124,000 members of the conservative party.

it is thought that those core grassroots conservative party members want a brexiteer they want someone willing to deliver no-deal brexit and deliver it by the 30th of marriag march. if that happens, the odds of a harder brexit increase there is more concern that that is the direction that the result will go if ousted, that's why the market this morning, sterling up a half percent, is expecting she'll win this vote of no confidence she faces later today. >> the ftse 100 higher today as well wilfred frost, appreciate it let's bring in patrick armstrong from pluremi investment managers. it's 5:06 a.m. in the united states i don't want to get too deep into things like shorting small cap european stocks, what is your view on the outcome of not

only may's vote but the brexit vote as they tie together from an investment perspective? >> there's so much uncertainty the brexit vote is the biggest self-inflicted wound you could imagine. geopolitics have been a big event around the world the uk has been the epicenter of the circus going on. so many outcomes that even two months ago that looked like tail events are looking best case a hard brexit, general election, new referendum, all those things seemed farfetched a few months ago. the sum of those three are 50% or greater now there will continue to be uncertainty. companies that have foreign revenues, the big cap companies, oil companies, healthcare companies, those should be fine. but companies facing a uk cyclical back drop that buy goods that are produced in another country, if you have a

weak sterling, that's a terrible backdrop >> a lot of our audience probably buys broad european etfs is there any reason to invest anywhere in the uk stocks right now? >> well, yeah. large cap -- if you buy the ftse 100, what you're at risk with is the banks. they make up a part of the ftse 100. if you're buying the small cap companies, probably not what americans are looking at those are companies at real risk if you're buying them, those are companies that will weather a hard brexit better than other countries. the healthcare companies, the oil companies will get a benefit. if you can find large cap companies that are not domiciled exclusively with uk revenues, those companies would waeather a hard brexit. that's the real risk, the uk would go into recession with a hard brexit. >> let's look at the glass half full or half empty depending on

what side of the brexit equation you're on. what if we get a shoft deoft de something everybody agrees on. i know that's not the consensus. if we get that, what then? >> that's still -- it's not going to lead to a lot of certainty. what you just described is a deal that will start with a transition deal as we finalize the terms of that deal so there will still be uncertainty for uk companies if you look at allocating hundreds of millions of dollars on capital expenditure, you will err towards making thatdecisio i'll invest in europe rather than the uk. even if we get the deal, the uk will suffer uncertainty risks that will defer capital expenditure decisions. we don't know how the outcome will go. the questions of a general election, new referendum, those will disappear if the deal gets agreed, it's not a deal everyone will be happy with a slim margin will agree to it,

and the uk will have uncertainty. when you look at an company growing at 1.4%, that uncertainty is not something you want you want something to boost growth and i think the uk will suffer from that uncertainty headwind for years to come. >> patrick armstrong joining us from london, a real pleasure, thank you. also today a developing story out of china huawei's cfo has been released from a canadian jail on bail the story far from over. eunice yoon joins us from beijing with more. >> thank you very much president trump weighed in on the huawei cfo case in a way that's been unnerving a lot of american business people here. the president gave an interview to reuters, in that he said he was willing to intervene in meng wanzhou's situation if that helped national security or if he thought it was necessary to close a broader trail deal

his comments appear to suggest that the u.s. detention of meng was a political decision, which was a suspicion of many chinese here and also was something that his administration had said was not the case this came after canada confirmed one of its former diplomats had been detained by chinese authorities. the foreign ministry commented on that saying the organization that he worked for did not register according to ngo law in china. the ministry added that it's clear about the visas must apply for to enter or work in china. kovrig's detention is seen as a response to huawei's cfo ded detention in canada. she's been released on bail but closely monitored. today she posted i'm in vancouver and have already been returned to my family. i'm proud of huawei, proud of my

motherland thank you to everyone who cared about me the chinese government has definitely not softened its stance it's been demanding for her immediate release. >> it has been a dramatic story, certainly. do we know when ms. meng might be able to go back to china? what's the timeline here >> the timeline is that her next court appearance is going to be on february 6th. but after that nobody really knows because the case is going to be ongoing. but certainly, based on what we've been hearing out of the foreign ministry, the chinese government would definitely like to have her back here as soon as possible >> eunice yoon live in beijing, pleasure thank you. let's get a check on the other big money movers frank is here with the stocks that you have to watch >> watching three stocks that could be active in trading today. american eagle outfitters, their

shares are down about 5% this morning. the retailer's latest quarterly revenues and same-store sales missed forecasts, but earnings were in line american eagle projecting current quarter earnings below expectati expectations. shares of dave & buster's down about 15% they beat on the top and bottom line it also raised guidance for the full-year, however same-store sales fell 1.3%. that was more than analysts expected analysts expected 0.5% the company citing its decision to skip its all-you-can-eat wings promotion. pivotal software is up about 4% this morning. the cloud software computer company earnings and revenues both beating forecasts and pivotal's guidance is roughly in line with estimates. brian, back over to you. >> we'll see you in a few minutes. up next, trump threatening to shut down the government after the d.c. drama krach chras

up and why oil has wiped out all of its opec-led gains. back after this. this isn't just any moving day.

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joining us is jimmy pethokoukis, a cnbc contributor a lot has been made of this. all of the media showing this. at least they're talking that looked like a saturday night in the sullivan household. >> little bit like a saturday night/sunday night, friday during the day at my household a lot of fireworks there was a yawning disconnect that you might be talking about between the fireworks and theatrics and what we saw and what the political, economic and market impacts are the market and economic impacts are minimal to zero. i think the political impacted is not much, but in this way it could be something if this means that this is what we have two years to look forward to, any sort of lingering hopes of an infrastructure deal or any real

progress, any of the other many issues facing this country, then that's not going to happen hopefully that's not the case. a lot of democrats would like to do something that's a bad way to start off the next congress. >> who has the upper hand here is it the senate and the president or is it the house >> republican senators have no interest in a shutdown this thing maybe could last ten days or something. then the democrats will come in. they can pass a continuing resolution they can get the government funded, send it over to the senate senate doesn't have a lot of interest in this not happening at that point the president would play ball. so, you know, he's not going to get this $5 billion almost certainly that's not going to happen. we'll move on. he'll get a talking point, and everyone will get talking points perhaps. in the end the government will move forward >> it's interesting.

we're talking about $5 billion the federal government spends roughly $10 billion a day to operate itself we're talking literally about half a day's pay effectively to run the government will we shut it down over that >> right i think most persons it sounds ridiculous polls show that americans would like a compromise. they don't want both sides going to the mattresses on this. they want a deal then again there's been a lot of long content shus figious fightn congress about money less than that $5 billion the only person who seems to want a gnawing fight on this issue is the pressure. we'll see if that la lasts bey january 3rd. >> sadly we have some experience in this. back in october of 2013 they shut the government down for 16 days i hosted a special nearly every night. stocks were down 300 points, 400

points if we get a shutdown that goes on, i know you're not a markets guy, do you think it will be bad for the overall equity markets >> i wonder if that's the case all the economic indicators after that shut down were pretty much in consensus. anything you lose on one side you gain on the other. the difference being back in 2011 where we had to shut down on top of that was the debt ceiling issue. that's the real deal that has an economic and market impact the shut down, no. hopefully we learned our lesson. that video, i could watch that again an again >> i'm sure you'll see it once or twice in the media today. just a guess jimmy, thank you very much >> you bet on deck, could the prospect of a new trade deal with china and maybe the world be music to the energy market's ears and do you like your mortgage interest deduction?

a guy who runs housing for the federal government may want to dump it. it's a story from d.c. that nobody else is talking about but we will. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ what if we could turn trash into money? plastic bank is doing just that, by exchanging plastic for digital credits redeemable for everything from food to education...

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context. oil has fallen 25% in three months it had its worst november in a decade joining us now on set is somebody who also just got back from austria, helima croft we have to stop meeting like this >> i know. >> we were both at opec. they cut production, 1.2 million. the market cheered, now it's jeering. what happened? >> i think there's concern about what will the cut look like? there was the issue about russia the russian oil minister saying they may only cut 50,000 to 60,000 barrels in january. the russians were dragging their feet on doing a cut. there's concern about what the contribution will be like. still concern about will saudi do it? they're scheduled to cut 900,000 off the november numbers i think the market wants to see saudi resolved then there's the lingering fears about demand and a recession, slowdown, trade wars we need to see this work through the system >> and it's been five days

you don't get 1.2 million bar l barrels off the market in five days it will take time. >> and there was some discussion that maybe they would do more. some people are saying is 1.2 really enough with u.s. shale coming back, with demand slowing? i think we need to wait a while. wait until january or february to see theeffects of this cut. >> the other way to look at it is this, based on the people you talked to and others at the meeting, and people we talked to and listened to, if they did not cut, can you imagine we wouldn't be at 52.70, we would be at 42.706789. >> as you know, this is one of the most contentious owe pk meetimee opec meetings. they are struggling so hard to get this agreement together. the qataris quit on monday we were going into a difficult discussion i think it was the fear of 30

that got them together >> we got the iranian oil minister as he was walking in, a little birdie whispered in my ear that he may storm out. he left early. we heard people after the meeting talk that there was actual screaming screaming in the room. >> yeah. we heard he basically shouted for 48 hours i think what's amazing besides the fact that he can keep going like that is the fact that the russians were essential. that's a changed political dynamic. nothing moved until the russian oil minister showed up on friday and did family therapy for opec. he did all of his individual meetings and essentially got a deal done. russia is firmly in control of this organization. >> alexander novak can say what he wants, if rosneft and lukoil don't can't to cut, they won't

cut. there's only one person who can make them cut, you know who that is, your buddy, vladimir putin >> president putin probably signed off on this >> helima croft, have a great day. up next, if the u.s. government does shut down, will the market shut down with it we'll dig in more on the d.c. drama. and your next test as three key indicators every one of you out there, all of you should know. "worldwide exchange" is back after this i'm ken jacobus and i switched to the spark cash card from capital one. i earn unlimited 2% cash back on everything i buy. and last year, i earned $36,000 in cash back. which i used to offer health insurance to my employees. what's in your wallet? your but as you get older,hing. it naturally begins to change, causing a lack of sharpness, or even trouble with recall. thankfully, the breakthrough in prevagen helps your brain and actually improves memory.

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breaking news theresa may fighting now to save her job, her own party will hold a vote today to oust her from leadership all this could have major implications for brexit. countdown to a shutdown. president trump making some explosive threats that has everybody from washington to wall street buzzing today. and flying high. this 102-year-old great grandma reaching new heights and breaking new records some good news footage you have to see as "worldwide exchange" rolls on right now ♪ welcome back thank you for being with us on cnbc i'm brian sullivan hope you're having a great start to your day or an end to it.

right now we are seeing everything everywhere higher dow futures up 215 points. s&p and nasdaq up as well. european and asian markets higher as well let's kick off the second half of your show with all the news you need to know in about 60 seconds frank holland is back with that. >> here's what's leading cnbc.com now theresa may will face a vote of no-confidence from members of her own conservative party this evening. backlash against her leadership is mounting as she tries to salvage a brexit deal if may loses this vote it would likely trigger a general election may says she will fight the no-confidence vote with everything i've got. >> the recent cyberattack on marriott that exposed the personal data of 500 million guests has been traced to a group of chinese hackers the hack was discovered in september and revealed last month. the "new york times" reports the breach was part of a chinese

intelligence gathering effort that hacked health insurers and security clearance files of millions of americans. and tencent music will debut on the new york stock exchange today. the music streaming business priced its ipo at $13 a share. the offering values tencent music at 21 billion, making it the fourth largest ipo by a chinese company this year. >> all right thank you very much. now let's check the other top headlines with phillip mena. >> good morning. a deadly terror attack at a christmas market in france left two dead and 14 injured. the streets turned into pandemonium after a gunman opened fire at the world famous christmas market sending shoppers running for cover the 29-year-old suspect was confronted twice by police and was shot before managing to escape france's counterterroism unit is out in full force with 350

agents hunting for the gunman. the a.p. reports that 5 people have been detained so far, but the killer is still at large. president trump's former personal attorney is scheduled for sentencing today in a new york federal court michael cohen pled guilty earlier this year to charges including campaign finance and business crimes as well as lying to congress. the campaign violence violations are related to hush money payments paid to two women before the 2016 election and a driver in d.c. captured a wild sight on camera. a man clinging on to the back of a washington d.c. metro bus. the driver claims he was going about 40 miles per hour. he caught up with that daredevil a bit later, the guy told him he does a lot of stuff like that and couldn't really explain it if he keeps doing things like that he will have to explain it to a judge yeah >> just can't stop hanging on the back of buses. didn't work with mom either.

phillip, thank you very much president trump now famously clashing with pelosi and schumer yesterday. he's vowing to force a year-end government shutdown if congress refuses to pufund his border wal eamon javers has more on this. depending on what channel you watch, it depends on who "won" this fight >> yeah. it was an ugly scene yesterday in the oval office some wild moments there. here's what was going on nancy pelosi and chuck schumer went to the oval office yesterday to negotiate with president trump, to avoid a year-end government shutdown that happens after december 21st the issue is funding for the president's border wall. the president wants about $5 billion in funding democrats have offered up 1.6 billion. but not for the border wall, just for border security generally. they say the border wall is a waste of money and won't work. the president says it is

necessary. here is how the scene unfolded yesterday. >> the last time, chuck, you shut it down then you opened it up. >> no, no, 20 times. 20 times you have called for, i will shut down the government if i don't get my wall. >> i'll take it. you know what i will say yes, if we don't get what we want, one way or the other, either through you, through military, through anything you want to call, i'll shut down the government i am proud >> we disagree >> so there you see the two sides there trying to place political blame on the other democrats trying to place blame for any potential shutdown on president trump. president trump sort of embracing that mantle and saying i'll be the guy to shut down the government if we don't get border security. president trump trying to place the blame for what he considers loose border security on the democrats. both sides think they have a winning political issue. that's not a recipe for negotiated success

then nancy pelosi went up to capitol hill, talked to her fellow democrats and had this to say about president trump. she said of the wall, it's like a manhood thing for him. as if manhood could ever be associated with him, this wall thing so nancy pelosi with some tough criticism of the president's manhood yesterday. that gives you a sense of where we are today in american politics the president also gave an interview to reuters last night or late yesterday. in that interview he continued to sort of work the refs in terms of the federal reserve he said it would be foolish to raise rates next week and he said we're fighting some trade battles and we're winning but i need some accommodation, too the president continuing to push for lower interest rates from the fed. >> can i ask a dumb question, eamon. can the president actually shut down the government? >> the president can veto any spending bill --

>> okay. he can veto the bill >> if they send him something and he vetoes it, he would get the political blame for the partial government shutdown. >> that would be a deal that would also be done with some republicans, no? >> right presumably some republicans would have his back on that. my sense was that republicans on capitol hill were not so happy about him embracing the political blame for a government shutdown some of them view that as a loser for republicans. they're not so enthused about the president's approach here. but the president thinks border security is a big winner for him and his party, so he's willing to take risk here. >> you wonder what the conversations are like off camera we know what -- except for you and i. we're the only rational ones here we know what cameras do to people you show off how much of that do you think was showing off? >> i think a lot of it was

the president said it was transparency the democrats base is so intensely anti-trump they can't go into a meeting with him and let him have any advantage at all. they have to pick at him every time he says something, particularly if he says something inaccurate fascinating moment you saw nancy pelosi there throughout the meeting saying let's do this off-camera let's not do this in front of the press. she says she said that because she didn't want to have to correct trump every time he said something that was wrong that she wanted to get on with the negotiations her critics say she was doing that because she felt she was losing the fight and she didn't want to do it in front of the press. >> looked like senator schumer was as happy as a clam when trump said that. you could see schumer almost trying to get trump to say it. he said it and schumer was literally grinning >> and turning to the cameras. >> like can you believe he just said that? >> the democrats had a strategy yesterday of going in there and provoking the president to some

extent nancy pelosi started off by calling it a trump shutdown. the president said what? what did you say a trump shutdown off the back they were poking at him. and i think they thought they could goad him into saying something politically risky. >> a government shutdown might be bad for one trump international hotel. >> all those foreign dignitaries, they have multi-day stays. >> good point. when i get you you wouldn't streak down constitution avenue and you surprised everybody. >> i'm not going to do that. >> eamon javers, thank you very much let's talk about what this might mean for your money. mark tepper of strategic wealth partners joins us. you're a fund manager. do you hit sell? does it freak you out or is this just a side show >> it's totally a side show. with that whole political argument yesterday, i can't figure out if it was real or if i was watching "saturday night

live," i still don't know right now. what we're seeing is that it's tough to forecast where the markets will go. it's tougher to forecast politics this is like a twitter stock market right now twits are now drives volatility. you can see 3% swings in either direction. the market hates uncertainty the two big uncertainties are trade and the fed's course of action once we get resolution on those two, the market should reaccelerate >> if you think there was some selling yesterday on this -- and we saw some. it's not like mark tepper is hitting sell and buy 30 minutes later. you think ultimately the market will do what it wants to do regardless of that stuff >> i do. right now, like i said, the main concern is -- we'll figure out what the fed hopefully is going to do. i do believe the fed will hike rates in december. i think they're reasonable

i think powell's last speech proved that he is reasonable and prudent. i think they'll pause. if they do pause that will be great for the stock market as far as trade deals go, we're three to six months away from that there's going to be lots of volatility over the course of the next three, six months once we figure those things out the market will move higher. >> do you think so we can see the president and mnuchin, they will make comments, positive comments about potential deals. the market used to react to those tweets and comments, it doesn't seem to be reacting as much now >> i agree maybe that's because as soon as the market reacts and goes up 3% after a tweet, the next day when they find out the tweet wasn't that accurate, it tanks 3% maybe that's a good thing. quite frankly, all of these tweets, they're adding a ton of volatility we are not seeing any recession until 2020

the economy is still growing not as fast, pu tbut the economs still growing. earnings are still growing i think what we're in now is a situation where the market is just giving us a ton of volatility now that weir late cycle you have to transition away from those index funds, and this is now again a stock picker's market >> yeah. that's what we're hearing. it was not "saturday night live," that was real mark tepper, see you soon. have a great day breaking news on the banks moments ago the research house kbw downgraded the bank seconder and two bank stocks. cutting the overall sector to market weight and downgrading bank of america and morgan stanley. they're cutting these names to

p market perform from outperform they say any kind of a slowdown here or globally could weigh on earnings growth. those stocks not reacting, but kbw influential to the overall market giving a sector downgrade. up next, a story from d.c. that almost nobody else is talking about. why president trump's likely pick to lead a government agency should send shockwaves. and why the stocks wall street hates the most may be the ones you should love it's your rbi d anit's coming up

we have a feel-good story for you. a 102-year-old woman went skydiving. she had been jumping out of planes to raise awareness after her daughter passed away from motor neuron disease and she has now become the oldest skydiver ever awesome stuff. that's very cool here's a huge story from washington that pretty much nobody else is talking about president trump likely nominating mark calabri to lead fannie mae and freddie mac

he's a major critic of the agencies he may oversee. ed joins us now. i know this pelosi and schumer stuff is getting all the talk, but calabria is basically saying freddie mac and fannie mae should be put into receivership. what will happen if he is nominated? >> our view is that he will be nominated. we expect that announcement within the next week or two. we thought it would happen on or around the retirement of mel watt it looks like it will happen faster first, good morning, thank you you're right he's been a critic of the gses he's no friend to the gses

when someone becomes a director of an agency, there's rules and regulations that guide their actions. i don't think you can just step in to this new role and then place the fwshgsgses into receivership, that would just create turmoil >> as i read it, ed, and correct me if i'm wrong, he basically said he wanted to put them in receivership he wrote a white paper on this and said i don't want taxpayer support for fannie mae and freddie mac. can fannie and freddie live without taxpayer support >> we played that game before. >> we did. it didn't go well. >> but the world changed a bit there's always -- let's put it this way do the large banks have taxpayer support? i think the answer is yes. we saw that when the markets crashed and the financial system was broken that t.a.r.p. came around, there was aid for the financial services industry. the gses should be globally

systemic important institutions. with that they will become the backstop from the government whether folks wanted it implicit >> i was looking at a report you guys put out yesterday, was caught my eye was this you said whatever his beliefs, they're not in line with a lot of the treasury department's agenda could there be friction if that happens? >> that is our concern when we look at this, when mnuchin says the next director will be on board with treasury's agenda, and it seems like mark calabria is the next pick, those two elements don't seem to coincide with one another and there appears to be friction our view is there has to be some assurances from calabria to the trump administration that he is willing to carry parts of the agenda if not the entire agenda. >> it's one of those stories

that seem to be up in the clouds, but if we talk about housing finance this could ripple through the housing market, evendown to the first-time home buyer. ed, appreciate your views. thank you. up next, massive market swings the brexit battle. the drama in d.c a lot to talk about. we'll tell you how to navigate the noise and make some money. and what does the trading market look like for next year we'll take a look at that. from. everything. i blew my ankle out and i got prescribed pain pills by my doctor. if making my detox public is gonna help somebody i'm all for it. i just wish i would've had a warning.

. it looks like it could be a good day on the markets. dow futures indicating a jump of 227 points 1 day 13 trading days left in the year now let's talk about the global deal market, how will private equity and dealmaking look after a boom 2018.

joining us from london is mark tearfelter there was a new survey put out, but i want your boots on the ground view of how is deal market looking for next year. >> good morning. pleasure to be here. notwithstanding the political turmoil it's a festive time in london and there's a lot of energy coursing through the system in terms of our outlook, the deal market was down somewhat significantly in the third quarter, largely a lot of market observers saying tied to continuing trade disputes between the u.s. and china but i will tell you that based on antidotal evidence, based on the activity we're seeing from our clients and people we're talking to across the major theaters we operate in, asia, europe and particularly north america, we are expecting deal activity at least for the first two quarters of 2019 to continue

at least to pace if not increase somewhat significantly there are a lot of potential headwinds out there, trade issues, regulatory uncertainty possibility of a no-deal brexit. volatility in the capital markets. increasing hikes in interest rates, notwithstanding that, with private equity sitting on 1$1.2 billion of dry powder, we expect the pace of activity to continue and possibly increase >> that's an important story you're saying. we've seen the private capital markets continued to get bigger. is there any sign of that slowing down to your point, you're not investing in private equity because you want the money to sit there. you're investing in private equity because you want the money put to work. that's got to go somewhere, right?

>> yeah. look, great point, brian certainly with seller expectations on the sale side for valuations remaining high, and multiples continuing to creep up in buyouts, putting that amount of capital to work that you're saying investors are allocating to private equity remains a challenge. but we're seeing more creativity come out it's coming out in a number of different ways notwithstanding some of the headwinds you see out there in the world. private equity managers are increasingly focused on investing in a globalized environment. in part because they note they have to seek out faster growing environments and faster growing region regions. >> will that be in the u.s.,

europe, asia, all? tfrnlgs it depends it will be sector by sector. so some sectors in different regions will grow faster than others you're seeing, you know, consumer-led investing in places that you didn't traditionally see it across asia and other parts of the world >> good stuff, mark. >> one thing that is interesting, brian, is that a number of market participants are telling us from the private equity side that even in the event of a consumer-led recession they're planning to put more capital to work investing in the hope of trying to take advantage of better valuations >> mark, safe travels, we'll see you stateside soon >> good to see you. no time for the rbi. we'll do it, we'll record it and post it on something called the

internet and social media. check it out there dow futures are up i'll see you tonight on the 5:00 p.m. show. weep for us. "squawk box" is next on a big market day this isn't just any moving day.

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another day, another 500-point roller coaster ride for the dow. u.s. equity futures are on the move we'll try again pointing to a 200 point gain at the open. brexit news. prime minister theresa may is fighting to save her job she faces a no-confidence vote this afternoon we'll take you live to london. and huawei's cfo is out on bail president trump says he could intervene in the case if it would help secure a deal with china. it's wednesday, december 12, 2018 "squawk box" begins right now.

♪ live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box." good morning welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc. we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. let's look at the u.s. equity futures. the markets are indicated up by 230 points for the dow up by 25 points for the s&p 500. up by 84 points for the nasdaq what you see right now may change drastically through the course of the day. yesterday we saw big swings, a move of over 500 points through the course of the session. at the high of the day the dow was up 368 points, and down by over 200 points. a lot of volatility continuing through the markets. look at what happened overnight

in asia. it looks like th