futures, a big pop in the last 10 or 15 minutes or so as news came out in wall street journal that china is in the process rewriting its made in china 2025 plan maybe does not have much world domination we'll continue coverage with this starting with "squawk on the street." mike, thank you so much for being here mike sonja ganantoli, we'll seek here tomorrow. ♪ good wednesday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i am carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david cross-clafaber. the chinese is preparing changes to the made in china 2025 initiative may faces the confident vote tonight london time. our road map begins with the china trade boost.

stocks strong at the open, new signs of optimism from talks from washington to beijing >> far too aggressive. president trump taking on the fed one more time saying the central bank would be foolished to raise rates again brexit in the balance. the british minister is fighting her own party later today. >> the president added that he'll intervene to extradite the cfo huawei if could help him win a trade deal with china. what's good for national security, i would certainly intervene if i thought it was necessary. the journal just reporting as well, china is planning a change that would allow greater access for foreign companies. some of these trade tensions with the u.s journal says they are unlikely to go as far as the u.s. would like that would be significant if it

happens. >> it would be significant if we heard they are not going to steal our technology as they invite people in they refuse to admit. look at the paper by the way, i don't know if they stole yours but they stole my wife's social security at marriott you got this justice department that's about to indict you have them trying to replace and back away from 2025 which is vice president pence and peter navarro. >> you need them to admit that they do reckless fuelling and their state agencies are involved in espionage. >> why can't you admit that they are moving in the right direction and planting the seeds that would view as positive by certainly investors.

>> this is when i used to debate with my good friend, larry kudlow i constantly took the side of tariffs because i never they are not fair traders i want to see them go for everything am i happy to see this i am very happy. >> our position which i think reflected by your friend navarro is that they have to give up on everything that's not a realistic end game to expect if you are going to reach some sort of settlement. >> when they say this is a positive today, no doubt about it >> i don't want to be faked out by them. >> fair enough >> what i like to see is american express to be granted access without joint adventure partner. i want to say that with visas, too. there is a lot of our companies are forced to join with joint

ventures they are basically like mickeymou mickeymouse.com. >> there is a trade war and a tech war with china. can the two stay separate? >> if you want amex to go in there with no force jvs. how do they guarantee that they did not hack marriott data >> they were the ones presented to me. you have government sponsored cyber terrorism. the government is never going to admit that am i happy that they mention the 2025 plan is not the way to go 2025 is world domination it is like "pinky and the brain. >> that's a reference. >> what are we going to do today? take over the world. >> talking about today and efrl

other day with news whether it is bad on the trade front or good as ut appeit appears this . everybody seems to go home and start again tomorrow nobody actually investing. >> it is ground hog day. >> yesterday the washington post laid out who's about to be indicted they're people who are going to be indicted. at the same time we got the president tweeting don't worry about the huawei cfo i will let that go away if you give us something. so called repudiation enough to make it so she's not under house arrest we are in a farcical situation where we no longer think whether certain companies are doing well like the cloud kings what we think about is what are they going to give in on today and what are they not? >> when i talk to people in the market or not, certainly i tend to speak to a lot of hedge

funds. they're taking risks off they're not willing to be in there for any particular amount of time. their sentiments are quite negative as we have 13 trading days or left so in the year. it is knot much i can view positively at least what you are hearing from them. >> there are certain part of tech that businesses accelerate. >> because the growth stock stop working. >> i don't think we talk enough about that there is this whole covert of amazing stocks have sluhrunk evr single day >> grub hub, if you own a small business, food, you have to use them it meant nothing i mean all these companies say any down take. i have cigna on tonight and a little bit of down take. boom, cut in half.

francesca, they have 743 stores in 48 states comparable store sales that were down 14% do you like that >> profit expectations for q-4 have come down the most at this point in a quarter since ear early '17. it is an abrupt recalibration of what the recoming quarter is going to look like you are saying the stocks are over reacting? >> yes i guess you can argue that they should never been where they are. suddenly david buster is talking about -- i think it is weak. heard a lot of discussion of the cpi today. what i say about the cpi is this, if the fed does not want to do nothing, they got plenty

of cover i think they are in a box. the numbers indicate that you would cut. >> next week >> you would cut rates next week >> we are going in the wrong direction, man >> we are going in the wrong direction. talking about inflation and the fact that you do need what their mandate is there is ways to be able to get to a point if they can cut and if we do hit >> there is wage inflation but where is the rest of the inflation. don't worry about it because we'll be firing all the people you want >> what do you think oil drop 50% because business is great? >> i am telling you and i may be facetio facetious, if you continue the trend line for the month of december, what are they doing? it is other than the fact that judy woodruff would have to raise. >> four months of seven plus

jobs openings. >> there is wage inflation and other form of inflation that's not happening. i have been saying one and wait, i don't want to hauurt the fed' credibility. i am not like the president trashing the fed what the hell is he doing? he's the president of the united states >> i am waiting for him to call him up in the board room and say that well, jim cramer is a judge, he likes you but he also says he does not like your action i want to stick with you but you are fired. that's what happened to me one time with melissa. >> melissa's joan rivers >> you are going to keep pressuring me, i quit. >> the british are really a bunch of clowns. >> hey, that moves us to our next topic >> honestly.

>> they are really smfnumber ten downing street forget that address, i am moving an eventful day in london, theresa may does face a confidence vote set to take place a few hours. willifo wilfred frost is in london for us >> reporter: here is the math, 48 of her 316 mps were neatededt trigger the vote it is a close defeat for theresa may, she may still decide to resign the expectations here in west minister and the betting market that she will win and sterling has rallied accordingly because of the overwhelm 1%.

why? because around 150 or 160 mps have come out publicly to support her and enough to get her over the line. that's compared to only about a handful more that we know we'll vote against her because they trigger this vote in the first place. we won't know for certain until a little bit later this evening. even if she does win, it does not solve the topic of brexit. here is theresa may trying to answer the question of what she will secure having to delay her brexit vote. >> i have made some progress but, of course there is not any council meeting. they prefer the discussion to be held >> that's unacceptable >> this house agrees a program motion this house agrees the five days

of debate. this house agrees when the vote is going to take place >> reporter: if she gets the support of her own mps, today, a significant opposition mp are still angry with her she win that is confidence vote this evening, guys >> wilfred, i think deutsche losing 17% tlas hi there is a eye chanhigh chance e will resign. does it make sense?? >> the only history that we can look at is 1920. margar margaret thatchet, it gives us an indication if that many voted

against theresa may. we have enough mps to get her over the line of 158 either we have to expect they are going to vote the other way or as you say almost all of those that have not come out to say anything today would vote against her and be enough say 140 or 130 that she decides to resign anyway. that would be a surprise marketf if it happens. we'll move up a percent as she's going to win this and win it confidently. >> will, you are a great student. are you at all embarrassed of the way the government is conducting itself? >> reporter: am i embarrassed? well, it is clear to see of the aspect of what's going on is individual interests that people want to see power.

i don't think anybody can be proud of that. at the same time we are critical in politicians on all sides and both countries they say they are acting in the national interest because they believe so passionately, that is what divides this nation people believe in so passionately in both directions and even if it does mean threats to the economy they're willing to pursue that because they believe it is in the national interest. i think the aspect of both here, self serving nature and national spre interest it is hard to always be critical of politicians who stand up for the judge in light of that >> i am not sure it is a british story but just a human story big day ahead. we'll come back to you, wilfred frost is in london for us. ahead, exclusive with former ceo of athena health, jonathan bush, taking a look at the premarket,

two big days of big reversals, we are back in a moment. this isn't just any moving day.

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welcome back, an update on our story on monday involving the bitter dispute between qualcomm and apple they extend into a chinese courtroom which many existing models of apple iphones in china. as we reported on that day, jim and i reported on monday a couple of days back, qualcomm view the order as straightforward. saying that apple could no longer sell or import or do anything else with all of its models except for the newest ones the newest one on the market or being sold, the 12 >> is that what you call it? >> no. let's fast forward to today and the last 24 hours. what i am learning, jim, qualcomm of course as you may expect and as apple fully

admitted that it is selling all these funds. qualcomm has gone to the court now and said we are going to prove or petitioning for enforcement of this. >> a new tribunal that they have to go to or back to court? >> back to the federal court with evidence. video evidence, for example, showing people buying iphones. you have that. there is another one they're giving them the receipts you see at the beginning we don't show a lot of it. they're showing the receipt and the iphone being bought. it is the iphone they're presenting video evidence they have files of this evidence of continued sales they're going to await words from the court as what it is going to do in order to have that injunction enforced will it penalize apple in some sort of fashion or penalty

unclear at this point. it is interesting that apple chosen to go forward with the sales of all of its models in china. its contention being what we brought up on monday that it does not apply to those model that is are lower to ios 12 and at the time the hearing on this case took place, ios 12 had not yet been introduced and therefore not valid that it should be part of this there is nothing on the decision i have looked at a translated version from this port nothing in here that indicates in any way that this was specific to ios 11 or 12 it is simply specific to the two patent questions these models could not be sold >> apple has no further comment for it >> they're obviously going to continue to sell until there is a lockdown >> right >> could it happen

the tribunal is controlled by the communist party. the communist party can allow them to win or lose qualcomm >> they're going back to this court enforcement of the injunction >> they need to go to a higher tribunal to get the padlock is my understanding >> that's not my understanding several cross currents >> i don't know about the chinese laws frankly we know it is a federal court. applications across china. it is similar to our federal court where ever it may be saying something that would have the i effecti an effect of a certain country >> like hawaii >> something like that >> the president does not like that nonsense. >> he does not like judge curiel either who was overseeing the important trial of apple verses

qualcomm we did get a date april 15th, dealing with all of these issues under which apple no longer have its suppliers paying qualcomm for its ip >> i want to apologize for wilfred frost. our president criticizes everybody. he criticizes the fed or on-air and pelosi and taxes and judges. it undermines what our regards being constitution their constitution in china that it is powerful i don't have to check in with the headquarters >> right, different constitution design is no doubt about that. >> what are they going to do with the marriott stuff? >> i can get your wife's social security on the dark web for a

buck what are you worried i can get all three. what are you worried about >> we'll get into marriott in the context of downgrade today, verizon and hyatt and some important downgrade bofank of america and morgan stanley in a minute i can't believe it. that grandpa's nose is performing "flight of the bumblebee?" ♪ no, you goof. i can't believe how easy it was to save hundreds of dollars on my car insurance with geico.

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busy day here as we watch u.s./china trade music here on the nnyc, opening bell is in about four

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♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ the difference between possible and impossible? it's a person who believes they can, surrounded and supported by others - by us - who believe it, too u.s. bank - the power of possible. all right, let's get to it a minute and a half before we get to opening bell here

quick time to mad dash >> clorox, it has been the best performance. he had a meeting yesterday in new york he's talking about the price increases that they put through. is there inflation system absolutely he's not lowering prices margins is going to go up. yes, that's why these stocks may work the raw cost are coming down for proctor. look at that stock raise prices, raw cost down, amazing. no one has roll back prices yet. it is a win for the cbg industry you would buy fedex two on some of these searches. >> we would but we understand that people worry that amazon is going to - that's only 3% of the business the scaredy cats are concerned

of sudden retirement >> yes >> fedex and cal and good note >> there is the opening bell today. big crowd today at the nyc, it is tencent music, and south state corporation. a financial company based in south carolina we'll watch the banks today as kpw not only cuts the entire sector >> now they cut. now after these companies are being valued, some of them well c con tangible >> what are they throwing? >> is that five cents? >> stuffed animal.

>> they have not changed the name >> that's another deal we want to get in, right >> you may want to get in. >> why so? >> i know people are quite bullish on it and it is really a victim of the china/trade war therefore suffered from that they got $1.6 billion in cash. 5% on spotify. spotify owns 10% of tencent music. >> pretty soon you will work off on 2000 numbers. the declining gaming use in china because the government had been encouraging less time spent is an increase listening to music. >> the ceo of take two, there is a generation of tests. they can listen to music

they price this, that's a good sign >> they sort of got the book right side it is not a pretty picture they decided to come in anyway there are those who believe frankly this is not a bad time to buy a company of this size and quality at this price. >> look, i don't like deals that come into a big premium. i do like deals that -- >> it is down 20%. >> i like companies that goes below the offering price it gets rid of all the hot money. i can see that >> the work that i did i like the industry. i like what they do. i think there is tension between our country and their country. >> it is gotten wrapped up in that >> yes >> i don't know. they got 800 million people in the country. they are listening to music.

come onto the platform and they get it for free. it is tencent. so kind of a universa universal -- spotify is a very good company >> spotify has been huge they did buy that stake at a $10 billion valuation at tencent. these guys own 5% of spotify and now the public is going to own it >> i will say this deal coming january of this year, it will come at 2025 >> right that's my thinking >> it is going to be interesting. the ipo calendar next year, we know uber chosen morgan stanley

over goldman interesting because just how much goldman has catered to their business over the years. >> didn't he like to become an uber driver for a while? >> this market does not have enough money to handle all the ipos you have to sell a lot be able to buy that. >> you don't think when uber comes in public that it is not well-received? >> i don't know the valuation. >> it could hurt faang >> because money will be -- >> because there is not a whole new pool of money. when you see utilities disrupted last week -- >> money is not coming in anymore and the etfs and you are dealing with another amazing

piece. >> i got to read that actually >> i will give it to you i will send it to you. >> after the pelosi meeting, the algos did not know what to think. these headlines were coming in >> it is really true and i find myself thinking we are in some weird time where the volume is so thin that you can come in with an etf. that's why i want the sec, i agree wholeheartedly see whether this stuff is any good for capital we need to talk about -- >> they were fine when liquidity was coming up. >> troying to figure out how to make it. >> the stock is very different and changed dramatically everyoeven i the six years we have been s sitting at this desk

>> i actually been recommending cds. >> last night you said the stock market is treacherous. >> we get the justice department to issue that, if they indict, the chinese ministry that's hacking us, do you think this market is going to be up like it is >> no. separate tracks. >> unless you lay down on the tracks >> while we are here, we do have some names to consider >> okay. >> i don't want to do that >> there is some consumer names. david busters. >> they taukt cannablk about ca. are there any place you pay more to get chinese -- this is the claw >> that's a great ending of t"ty

story. >> american eagle, revenue is a slight missed as well. >> they have this thing called aerie the it is lingerie and it is great it is a good extension i think they are very smart guys the malice dol is down big as yo from francesca we can't get people into the mall people still like the brick and mo mortar but it is not being kind for christmas. >> here is a name that you want to own at certain times. >> i totally agree the etfs of everything, i like the lulu report, i thought they did a great job.

finally he did not do as so many analysts stock gos es up, they raise the price. do you think apple bottom, the morgan stanley analyst -- >> i don't know. i would know that microsoft's market value is about $45 billion than apple's >> quietly building up azure he's not caught up in all of the privacy concerns he's just doing it right >> he wears a black t-shirt when i had breakfast with him it is so cool. i have a microsoft system in my hp, i feel like tom brady. i am kind of like tom brady. >> with the service logo >> when i look at you i think of tom brady. >> that's about time that you start to realizing that i am across between daniel craig, and

tom brady. >> yes >> same everything else. >> same stadium for the super bowl in minneapolis. >> there you go. >> i don't have kids in private school new york. that's the only difference >> speaking of apple, it is the anniversary of ipo, back in 1980 today, december 12th, a happy birthday to a public apple mccorey is a daily production, 188. >> first time i have heard that. i wonder where they came up with that we need to keep track of it. >> it is one of those days we are up broadly, at least now except for verizon and it seems to be going up on down days.

>> cut today by morgan stanley it is about oath >> we were having a conversation about oath yesterday and interesting, writing down half of the value of what they paid for. did anybody anticipate it was going to go well when they bought these two properties? it is not important to the overa overall health of the company which we pointed out did not make the big bet as at&t has time warner and direct tv. >> you are telling me -- that $4 billion easy come and easy go >> yes >> the worse deals, come on, it was written $22 billion by ge. >> that's the bench. >> this is not -- >> we ge got like three of them.

they're like the original. they're right up there >> ge is up 2% today this is the day for ge ge is so -- >> by the way, ge, 666, got a lot of attention yesterday crisis low >> larry culp is doing everything he can. new board members and trying to get a lot of things behind them. there is so many ghosts. as soon there will be the ghost of christmas past there. >> and they are haunted by tusa. >> they are the whale. >> jim, nvidia is down a percent and a half reported on this news that soft bank will sell at a

profit of $2 billion >> would it be great in they do it at 280. the more i study nvidia, it was impossible to know where those gaming parts were going. who know how big crypto mania was. insurance people were buying nvidia cards and amd card. they did not know. if their defense, they did not know but, at 145, do you get rid of it the touring chip that's not written by for some of the gaming companies, it is no good. so you are dealing with the product gap. i can understand why nobody want to go there. a lot of great company by the way, you know what i was looking at the other day, lamb research there is a growing shortage of

some chips people under invest it i say you buy and people should have sold it much higher i didn't like them up there. >> i like them >> i think they should have sold nvidia at 270. that's why i change my dog's name >> chevron >> yeah, it is chevron for a moment and oil plummeted he answers to anything as long as i get food in my hand >> dow is up 300 it is going to be a busy morning as tencent make its way. we'll turn to bob pisani >> good morning guys, we are inside looking at the action here only we get inside of the post to show you what's going on. the important thing right now, here, the deal got done at all we are at a difficult market right now. the company did price 13 or $15

was the price talk i think it is a major marke market -- joe mccain is in charge of client trading of citadel, he's supervising this opening today. explain to people what exactly goes on in this process so here we see citadel people who's running a lead on this what's happening >> we are proud to represent tencent music and congratulating them the price is no reprocessed. there is electronic orders that come into the books and citadel security representatives and along with brokers and under writers and other institutional investors. you see the process of everyone trying to get to what the right price is to open security.

>> do we have any indication it is not going to happen in ten minutes. is there any indication? >> i think it is too early to tell at this point usually some time before 10:00 and a little sooner we'll put a price, a former indication that starts to set range. as more interest comes in, you will see it will adjust and narrows down >> and just point og out here, r is the designated market makers. what they are doing now, goldman sachs is represented on the phone there, they are looking at the order book right now they are building a book that's what it is called. they are having electronic orders that are coming in and indication of goldman and there are other under writer of jp morgan associated with this and you have the floor makers, there is a few guests as well from

tencent that are there they are shouting of buying interests to the designated markers here he's now talking to the crowd giving some indication of where people are making bids and offers essentially this is a real dynamic process it is some what high-tech bulloubu but low tech and people are shouting out >> it is meant to find the right price and minimize volatility as we open it >> how long will this take i know you are always willing to give us an indication? >> it is hard to say i would say the average amount of time that these deals tend to take is probably in the hour range but it really depends how quickly the interest comes in and how much price variance there is in the process.

we'll keep an eye on it. >> we'll come back in the next half hour or so and give you an update on what's going on. >> we are at post five let's get to the bond pit as well rick santelli is at the cme group in chicago >> good morning, rick. i like listen to the three days of tens. we had four sessions where we closed in the 280s one of those sessions tested in the low 280s and held. we are starting to build if you look at to date chart, what was important here that i want to draw your attention to the far left side of the chart you know why we made the low yield close of 2018 on the second day of trade. it would have been the first day. we are talking about partial basis points first few day of the year. let's look at bund, open the

chart up year to date to bund. the reason why i bring it up because the difference between those two-points show you how much the spread have widen and underscores it at the time where ownership at the beginning of the yield, negative yields till permeate the globe they are expanding after contracting. now if we switch gears to foreign exchange, everybody is paying attention of what's going on in europe especially today in the u.k. where theresa may faces a no confidence vote i believe that'll hit around 4:00 p.m. eastern. let's look at the pound verses the dollar starting al april of 2017, the zone that its trading calling it 20 months. it did get a nice bounce yesterday. we'll have to wait and see exactly how long this bounce lasts and especially in lieu of

negotiations whether theresa may or somebody new. the clock is ticking maybe the question we should thip abo think about all day is brexit is not ugly as the experts say. if we look at what's going on with the chinese currencies, it also bounce againsted the dollars. >> this particular charge from the beginning of october showing how the dollar is sliding from what was the best levels since 2008 carl, jim, david, back to you. all right, rick santelli as bob said we are on ipo watch. tencent music is going public at the big board. we'll bring you the opening trade this morning and david abney, how his company fits into the picture. we have traded down 1% interday from the opening day we'll watch it carefulfully tody

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a lot of positive trade headlines helped us get out of the gate dow is up 250. s&p up almost 28 we'll watch the interday action after some big swings on monday and tuesday. when we come back, a cnbc exclusive. jonathan bush, co-founder, former ceo of athenahealth before he was pushed out we'll get stop trading with jim after a short break. [beep] you should be mad your neighbor always wants to hang out. and you should be mad your smart fridge is unnecessarily complicated. but you're not mad, because you have e*trade which isn't complicated. their tools make trading quicker and simpler. so you can take on the markets with confidence. don't get mad. get e*trade and start trading today.

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show me decorating shows. this is staying connected with xfinity to make moving... simple. easy. awesome. stay connected while you move with the best wifi experience and two-hour appointment windows. click, call or visit a store today. zwriem for jim and stop trading. >> here's something you're going to see, huge buy backs commits to buying 12% of the company. he's going to beat his numbers the construction business is terrific it's absolutely a stock that needs to be reconsidered but this is what's going to occur because guys can't take it anymore, whether it be facebook with the 9 billion, whether it be the 12% buy back. they're not going to let the etfs and stock market destroy them let's watch those. >> master card and others. >> yes master card is a candidate to have a joint venture if the chinese are going for it for

2025 that's trust and verify. that's what larry kudlow said, trust and verify. >> tonight, i have signet. i have wicks not doing well and i have fire eye. do you ever need fire eye when the chinese communist party has decided to get -- david, they're in your brain. they want to implant molars. that's how much they want your information. do not believe that we are -- that the justice department is walking away from its indictments of the ministry, the ministry of espionage. i'm not kidding. >> i'm aware >> i'm not kidding. >> you are -- you're -- you're crazy. >> i'm well ahead of those guys. >> when we come back, kevin has set, chairman of the house council of economic advisors best gains of the month. we'll see if they hold alpha seems more elusive today.

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the huawei ceo sara's back on set. >> glad to be back here. >> president trump going after jay powell ahead of next week's meeting. plus a federal reserve vice chair weighs in. fighting to save her job prime minister theresa may fighting to save her job. tencent music getting ready to make its debut here at the stock exchange would he'll bring you the opening trade straight ahead let's begin though with the president speaking out against the fed. president trump in an interview with reuters making some comments about fed policy and chair jerome powell this time saying it would be a mistake if the fed raises interest rates next week when it meets. quote, i think it would be foolish commenting on fed chair powell he said, i think he's a goodman. i think he's trying to do what he thinks is best. i disagree with him. i think he's being too

aggressive, far too aggressive actually, far too aggressive >> president not the only one weighing in. jeff gunlack in this webcast said the fed seems to be on a, quote, suicide mission raising rates while the deficit increases as a share of gdp. not the only thing he said he said that corporate bonds should be avoided. you take out inventories gdp is running at some of the weakest levels in the last three to four years as jeff sometimes comments not just on bonds but stocks. >> you cannot argue with his track record in the bond stocks i'll put aside. >> if you're a bond guy you're usually a little more pessimistic. >> he has over the last decade or more shown himself to be an extraordinary investor frankly when it comes to fixed inkoom. look at the performance of his funds. >> sure. he showed bearish charts that we show all the time. the chip stocks, financials as

part of this prechsentation. >> it doesn't seem to me to be his core competencies, stocks. >> total return now outperforming the s&p for the year. >> it is >> to david's point. by the way, sara said we're up to 237 points. looking for potentially more swings today for a closer look at the rally, at least at the open, david bianco is with us at deutsch asset management laura kane is with thematic investing at ubs global wealth management good morning. >> you are bullish. >> good morning. >> i am bullish. >> how bullish >> i think the s&p should rally 5 to 10% in the next 30 days i stand by the 2850 price target that we've had on the s&p all year if this sounds unreasonable to you, think back to january a lot can happen in a month. a lot of things are beginning to go in the right direction. i've always seen the situation of hallway ceo as an issue of iranian sanctions separate from trade. making bail, being comfortable

in vancouver it shows that can go through its own process with due time and that would really do see there were some meaningful agreements being shaped and coming out after the g20 meeting. the president can go easier on chair powell markets have spoken. the fed is a lot closer to neutral and in my view, people are making a big fuss about the shape of the curve my view is these interest rates suggest the pe should be closer to 20, not the 15 that we're trading at. >> is this a tactical call do you fade into 2800? >> i wouldn't do that. we're setting ourselves up for a good year in 2019 to deliver the returns that should have been delivered in 2018. mid single digit earnings growth, 2% and yes there is pe up side because there's little up side on interest rates here. >> you're not bothered by the fact that 1% rallies and the s&p 500 just disappear based on

headlines and tweets and rumors and photo ops on trade >> it's bothersome the interday volatility has been very annoying and trying to keep pace with all of the incoming news, but we're trying to get back to the basics of what are earnings, what are interest rates. >> the market doesn't seem to be focusing on the basics. >> it will be before you know it you look back in a few months from now and a lot of these issues will have gone away the earnings and interest rates will be the case. >> laura, we talk about themes for '19. what are the big ones for you? >> sure. so going into 2019 i would say we're also bullish we are over weight global equities and overall we think that a lot of the investor reaction to volatility has been over done and i would attribute this to two reasons. one, investors got very complacent with a low volatility environment. if you look back at 2017 the vix which is a measure of implied volatility only went after the

implied average zero times coming into 2018 investors are very sensitive to any noise around the key risks that have been on their minds whether it's u.s./china trade tensions, what the fed is going to do or global growth the second thing is we're later in the cycle investors are very sensitive to anything that might signal that we're headed for a recession i would say that we agree. we do not see any of the signals out there that we're headed towards an end to this cycle so we're headed into 2019 quite bullish. >> do you believe that the fed has already done -- i mean, for the doves has already done enough damage to take a significant share out of gdp for '19? >> i think the fed is moving along its projected path they're being very pragmatic, very data driven we do expect a hike at the december meeting and we expect two more coming next year and i think when you look at how tight the labor market is, i think when you look at the strength of

u.s. consumer, i think the if he had is moving appropriately. i think the key thing to keep in mind is that given where we are with inflation, with the environment being pretty benign, the threat is going to continue to be able to flexible and i think this is key and i think this will be a positive for equity markets going into next year. >> the fed is such a debate right now. it really could go either way because we have inflation numbers that showed the cost of living was unchanged. >> yes. >> actually, inflation remains pretty subdued but a lot of that was gas prices coming down offsetting high prices in rent. >> true. >> what does powell do that in the shadow of president trump saying it's going to be foolish to raise rates >> i often say oil is in a lot of things but labor is into everything we still have tame -- very well-contained unit labor costs. wages are going up thanks to productivity but there's no broad-based acceleration of inflati inflation. we think the fed should hike in december, two, maybe three at

most hikes in 2019 and then done. >> laura, do you touch em or europe >> so we take a 5% position in global equities. we do see there are opportunities internationally driven by two things abroad what we see is that valuations are undemanding and we still have across the board a pretty accommodative monetary policy in a lot of countries around the world overall, yes, we do see opportunities in europe and em as well. >> so quick question because you just threw the rate hike out there, david if the fed doesn't for some reason hike next week, goes against market expectations and your own, how would the market take that? >> i think the market's already woken the fed up to the fact that interest rates don't need to go much higher from here so taking them off, i think markets

are going to rally so i think the fed should feel comfortable with the december hike. >> what if they don't? wouldn't it look like they're caving to the president's pressure >> in our view markets are going to be heading upward the fed should be hiking they need to communicate they should not be hiking i wantthem to be blunt there's no need for a march hike they can wait. >> next week will be fascinating. good to see you both. >> thank you thank you. when we return, jonathan bush former ceo of athenahealth is with us we are waiting for the opening trade on tencent music ticker tme making its debut at the nyse as we go to break take a look at the top performing names as we are hanging on to a 267 point gain (toni vo) 'twas the night before christmas,

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we're waiting for the initial trade of the tencent music ipo. bob pisani is on the floor inside the post? >> where we always are only cnbc is inside the post showing you the action we have a first public indication for tencent, 13.5 to 14 13 to 15 was the price talk. they priced it $13 with early indications 13.5 to 14

the biggest news story is that the deal is getting priced at all. stacy cunningham is the head of the new york stock exchange. stacey, it's a tough market to go public. >> it is. >> just getting it priced was a bit of a victory. >> i think when you look at volatile markets you do see a slowdown in the ipo market companies with a strong underlying business and strong story tend to do well regardless of market conditions. >> if they can open with a 13 handle i think that would also be a victory there are a lot of smiling tencent executives if you can open this. what does this tell you about the ipos in 2019 we know there's a huge flock of unicorns sitting out there waiting to go public including lyft, uber is this a good early sign? what are some indications you're expecting for 2019 >> there's something to note the companies that have a good story will come to the market. some of the companies we are out there talking to, they're saying they want to be ready. they might not know what their

timing is although some of them are cuing to the market what that might look like a lot of them are doing the work to be ready to access the public markets. when the window is open for them and they feel like it's the right time, they're ready to go. >> do you sense -- you talk to these companies that are considering going public all the time do you sense any concern on their part that they have been waiting a long time. gestation period has been really long for these companies staying private for much longer periods than normal, particularly the big unicorns is there any concern that they need to get going, that the window of opportunity might be closing? that we may be on the other end of the economic up cycle >> we definitely see a lot of companies expediting their plans but i think the bigger concern around companies waiting to go public longer is that investors are left on the sidelines. we want to make sure that they're coming to the public market so they understand the value the public markets combine. the level of governance and discipline is good not just for their investors but for the company itself.

>> still 13.5 to 14 is the public indications as soon as we get closer, we'll let you know. >> bob, thank you. watching that closely of course. moving on, it has been one month since athenahealth has talked about being bought. the price tag $135 a share it has been six months since jonathan bush stepped down as the president and ceo. it's a health care technologies company he helped to found jonathan bush is here. >> it's a little bit like getting invited to my girlfri d ex-girlfriend's family for thanksgiving >> what would you tell other ceos who find themselves with an activist investor such as elliott in their stock reflecting on what you went through? what would your advice be? >> it's funny. we just had your ceo of the

stock exchange i wonder why there are so few publicly traded stocks and why people aren't using that as a liquidity tool you've got to acknowledge that the kind of cynicism and beatdowns that we've witnessed probably hurt the number of stocks there are half as many stocks on the nasdaq today as there were when i took athena public not that long ago, ten years ago you know, you look at what happened to me athena was since ipo an average of 23% annual return, not for nothing. elliott was 13 over the same period no offense, guys don't sue me but, you know, that's a -- that's a -- if a 23% annualized rush is not enough because they have periods of -- you know, a two-year period where things are going to be bumpy when you retool, when the administration changes, when your regulatory environment changes, it makes it appealing to stay away i'm hoping that we figure out

how to get excited again and get companies out again because i think it's a wonderful feeling, as she said, to make the equity gains available to a broader circle of people than a few pe funds. it's part of the reward, to your own experience with elliott, initially when they came into the stock, a significant holder, of course? you certainly seemed to acquiesce being and right size the cost structure. >> right. >> was that the right move or do you regret having done that at all? should you have come back and punched them in the nose >> my experience is running a company with a gun to your head is no way to run a company better to say pull the trigger so the damage to the company culture during that one-year period, the damage to the employee retention, our ability to hire technology and the damage to my family,

friendships, not that everybody was mean, everybody was afraid all of the time. people would say we have to talk in person. that was the tone and tenor of the company. as you can check your files, we were a very candid, honest, open company. that a kt traed peopl-- attract, executiv executives, people that were more defensive in their posture. it made it a hard place to run and sell and that was really exclusively due to that experience it was not a cynical, negative, fearful place before it turned on a dime. >> no, but there was -- elliott had officially offered 110 -- throw that on your cynicism pile. >> they found a company that was not acting properly.

>> sure. >> many problems they point to you. >> sure. absolutely i've been making mostly mistakes for 21 years taking the company from a dollar a share to 208 to 160 and i could -- i could go toe to toe with them all day long and come up with better mistakes than they can come up with none of them were related to the fact that this was the market leader with a sas business model and a long period of growth that was going through a transition from everybody assuming that obamacare was going to keep marching, that clinton was going to be told great opportunities but health care is better >> the fact that they went through your instagram account sailing to the bahamas five times in three months or on a party bus. >> party bus, that was to not use the plane to go to the portland marriott, portland,

maine, in winter where we got 80 buck a night rooms we used a van and we did have beer on the bus but that's a great example. anybody can take -- if you're cynical and you can use the media as well, you can take humanity and twist it into a dark thing and they did a great job. i didn't do a good job responding we had a lot of advice saying you can't say anything you can't even tell investors what you think couldn't talk to you guys, which was amazing because they could just build on that recency bias with investors. >> you may have gotten bad advice we've had plenty of investors come on and talk to us as an effective way to fight. >> right i do not claim to be a great activist battler i want a wide open opportunity and they need somebody to find them and get behind them this is a nation built on faith and fellowship and optimism and

cynicism is the death here it sucks the life out of markets and out of growth and so i'm very focused on that and, you know, maybe i should have had a new ceo sooner who was ready for bumpier times. i don't know all i know is it wasn't good for the underlinement and allegations of assault of your ex-wife. you claimed -- >> in a hostage situation there is no elegant way for a decent person to respond to such things in three-second little tidbits like that. what i was surprised at is that nobody sort of said, isn't this interesting that one page of 1600 pages of voft -- brought

forward by the daily mail of london after they sat there to glt the other 1800 so i can't do anything about that without bringing forward things that my children may not know and my ex-wife and i may have gotten over it's not an answerable accusation. >> was immelt any help >> great guy we didn't get much chance to work together. maybe 30 days, 60 days, ten meetings and i really -- he was charismatic and intelligent guy who knew health care. >> are these new wide open opportunities, would it be done with the help of public markets or not >> i'd interesting you have to find it and bake it and see what it looks like emotionally i think they're good

i think what we experienced, the trump administration, europe starting to frac, it's either you get it or i get it, it's dangerous if you talk about zero sum games. i would like to make sure whatever i do with the rest of my life is optimistic and has the notion of a unifying opportunity for everyone in it i mean, don't we all >> jonathan, you're a little bit out there in terms of ceo. you know, fairly colorful. is that not a behavior that you would say other ceos should follow because it opens them up to this kind of criticism? >> it's a very fair point. i mean, i think that certainly we -- our aspirations for athena was that it would become a very boring, reliable sort of tectonic strait of the health care marketplace at the time no one believed, no one entered, there was no vc in health care and we needed a little bit of reindeer games to get attention, to get on your

show, to get doctors to come to our 10x10 foot booth at the 650,000 square foot i.t. soaks of the hims show we went from $800 million of vc going into health care i.t. in the year we started the more disruption please program to 4.8 billion and almost all of them touching athena in one day or another because we made it sexy and fun to enter this otherwise sclerotic and over regulated space. at some point all companies should -- you know, be stable and be grandparents of other generations. maybe athena's time was then, but i hope that all entrepreneurs don't say, gee, i shouldn't be myself. i believe that the trusting environment that made it a safe place for all kinds of people was partly related to the candor

and honor and honesty of the ceo and other senior teams. >> did you really start an unofficial support group that have been attacked by activists? >> it called me out of nowhere i got a lot of calls from folks that had experienced this where i learned things i couldn't believe. they'll go through your trash, they'll follow you until someone was following me taking pictures, i was walking with a former colleague. my wife got texts of the two of us walking, who's your husband with all of these things that never happened before. pictures from the bahamas crossgated, misgated so it looked like a certain narrative. >> still, do you have any regrets about any of the behavior or personal issues that may have referenced -- >> i do i -- i don't feel like i

engaged in any form remote of harassment i was an incredibly honorable ex-husband from day one. husband losing a wife. i regret every day, every little thing because i go back and i find the things to be ashamed of so i learn from them i felt like this was more of a liable thing than a great reveal i'm me and i walk around in the everyday >> is this support group still in session or are you cured? >> we all said let's build you know, the martha stewart philosophy eyes forward, keep positive and i don't know what else i have in common with martha, i hope nothing, not much. but i'd like to keep my eyes forward and be positive. i thought uncle george's funeral was a great reminder i thought the other thing that was helpful that i loved about athena is we were using power to

help other people and great jobs not necessarily in metro areas and elimination of this incredible friction we have in medicine >> do you think you'll run for office ever? >> that's a good question. i like going where they ain't. health care was one of those places it could be that politics is one of those places. i don't know i want to be of service. i know what i love i love setting out with people that i love on nearly impossible noble missions that's what athena was for me for 21 years that's what the opportunity to talk on this show is you get people that you love like halleck and companies that you love that you can plug that are doing great things and you help them. >> jonathan, should point out elliott categorically denies that it had anything to do with -- >> great coincidence i have no idea. >> -- investigators or whatever it was that was employed. >> right

sure thanks for watching, fellas. >> they're watching. they're watching the e-mail. >> what's going to happen? >> it may be a totally coincident thing that it went from a trusting, loving place to a terrifying place to work at. i think it's worth noting. i can't imagine it doesn't make it harder to value on asset. >> what happens to athena now in your opinion >> my fondest wish is that it become that secure, reliable, connected tectonic plate that allows liquidity in the health care system. i think it has everything it needs to be that as long as it can, you know, get the tone back get the cultural energy back. >> so they got a deal at 135. >> i'm an athena loyalist. 100% of my net worth is in it, you know, i'm -- i'm -- i'm a fan of the stock it's going to

be a private company you're getting taken out of 135. are you happy with that or unhappy with that? >> i certainly never dreamed in my basement that i would be seeing the thing in the basement becoming a 5 or $6 billion company. that's a lot to be grateful for. i haven't been close to the company. i imagine it's hard to sell a company without a ceo. i imagine it's hard when someone pulls an offer i think they did a great job honestly they're great people, i know that. >> we appreciate your taking time with us. >> thanks for having me back >> we'll have you back for your next venture. >> all right take care. >> onthan bush. half past the hour let's get a news update with sue herera. >> michael cohen arriving for his court appearance in new york a federal judge is set to decide whether brump's former personal lawyer will get leniency for cooperating with the special

counsel, robert mueller, or years in prison for dodging taxes and lying to congress. police and soldiers filled the streets in strassberg's city center as the manhunt for a gunman who killed two and injured others continues the shooting suspect's mother, father, two brothers are being held in detention for questioning. the turkish president erdogan says his country will begin a new military operation to drive out syrian kurdish fighters in syria within the next few days. it is likely to strain the ties between the u.s. and turkey. and here at home florida state officials are now estimating that floridians had more than $4.2 billion in insured losses in hurricane michael. they're handling 131,000 planes. you are up to date that's the news update i will send it back downtown to you guys. >> sue herera.

thank you. back in headquarters. now time for our etf spotlight. now we're looking at chinese internet names the stocks are rallying today on some on tow mission about a u.s./china trade deal discussion the crane shares china etf tracks internet stocks, ticker kwbe drive lower by some top holdings that would be tenkrenlcent, in market territory down 20% from their high this as we await tencent's public offering. lashing out against the fed. the president taking on fed policy and chair powell again. the vice chair alan blinder is with us. talk more about that jim grant of grant's interest rate observer will join rick santelli requesting to check on the major issues

stocks in rally mode president trump's comments certainly helping the mood president trump talking to reuters yesterday on the possibility of recession he said, quote, in my opinion we are doing really well. our companies are doing really well if the fed is going to act reasonably and rationally, i think we'll go -- i think we are a rocket ship going up end quote joining us is former fed chair and princeton university professor alan blinder the president said it would be foolish for the fed to raise interest rates next week is he right? >> no, of course he's wrong, as he's wrong about most things you know, what -- i mean, i don't know what he understands or what he's forgotten in a statement like that is the fed is still on the monetary

accelerator. the process that we've been witnessing since the end of 2015 is gradually taking your foot off the accelerator and into neutral. then there's a question of whether you touch the brakes we're not up to that question yet, the fed is not up to that question yet with the economy, the economy moving like a rocket ship. that's an exaggeration but the economy is very strong we don't need the monetary accelerator. >> it's a little confusing you can't have an economy moving like a rocket ship and then be surprised when the federal reserve is raising interest rates, alan. the debate on wall street has been not december, december is priced in. more than a 70% probability that they'll hike next week it's what happens next there seems to be a lot of disagreement from economists and from the market and from the federal reserve itself on how the path looks >> i think that's right. i mean, chairman powell the other day made much more news than he meant to, i think, when he said something to the effect

of now we're getting about -- we're getting very close to the bottom of the range of estimates of neutral that range if you look at the last thought plotter, in the last thought plot it was 100 basis points wide from 2.5 to 3.5. that's a big difference in monetary policy decision the point of it is once we have the december rate hike, which will come, we're getting pretty close to that range and it gets to be controversial whether the fed should pause there, go up a little bit more or what. >> alan, how about this argument that we got from fischer yesterday. you need to get the nuts on the trees in order to harvest them when the winter comes. you need rates at a level where you can bring them down by an average of 500 basis points as we tend to do in recessions. >> the last part of your

question is true we tend to bring them down something more like 500 than 200 basis points, but there's no way that we're going to a 5% federal funds rate with a 2% inflation rate in the current economy. that would be a 3%, maybe a little more than 3% real rate and that's just not in the cards. so, i mean, i understand the argument and it is, by the way, why the fed has been a little bit more eager -- maybe a lot more eager to normalize the interest rate than to normalize the balance sheet. let's get the federal funds rate up to a point where we can lower it substantially if we need to, but that lowering, if and when it comes because of a recession or fears of a recession, i think is much more likely to be coming from an interest rate that looks much more like three than five. >> what is actually going on with the economy, alan

things look all right if you look at the unemployment rate and the pickup in wages but there are some underlying finds. clearly the market is trying to tell us something. what is it >> well, you know, markets always exaggerate what they see. i think if you're looking for trends of pessimism in the current economy, you can find them here and there. you didn't mention housing that's the weakest part of the economy right now, but there's a tremendous strength in the economy and the level of the economy with a 3.7% unemployment rate is, i think, by almost anybody's guess beyond full employment beyond normal full employment. remember, full employment doesn't mean every single person has a job, even in world war ii the unemployment rate got down to, i don't know, 1 or 1 1/4%. so the unemployment rate is

very, very low and that's a reasonable indicator of the tightness of labor markets and of labor markets in general. so, you know, if we should slow down a little bit from the unsustainably rapid pace that we've had in recent quarters, that's -- that's far from catastrophic >> and far from a recession by the way. >> right i'm curious to know what you're thinking these days about the wealth effect. people have been tossing around charts of the percentage of household net worth to disposable income. the argument isif you do get a big downdraft in asset prices it will weigh heavier on spending intentions than they have in the past true or no >> yeah, i don't know about that last part, but it will weigh on investment spending and especially consumption spending to some extent so a real crash of the stock market will have some effect we've seen this in the past. by the way, when it happened in very large magnitude in --

around the year 2000, 2001, it had a depressing effect on the economy. let's remember a pretty small one. remarkably small i call it the little recession we had after that the recessionette because it was so small. there is a wealth effect of declining asset prices as they come will be pulling down consumer spending a bit. i think it's easy to exaggerate that it's also easy to forget that the losses in the stock market that we've had of late basically have just wiped out 2018 gains we're pretty close to flat on year 2018 right now so as stock market years go, that's not that unusual. stock market's very volatile a zero year is a bad year, that's for sure, but it's not a calamity. finally, allen, wanted to ask you about the global economy because the u.s. is in fairly

good shape if you look at europe some of the political instability with the brexit, riots in france, political uncertainty even in germany, china slowing down how insulated are we to all of this and how is the fed going to think about that >> it's a very good question certainly not completely insulated. we do interact with the rest of the world financially and in trade, of course exports are about 13, 14 i haven't looked recently. something like that percent of gdp and exports will suffer as the world slows down, and that looks to be happening a bit. i don't want to exaggerate i don't think anybody should exaggerate, but china looks to be slowing a bit, but they're not going to slow a lot because the chinese won't allow it to happen there are these dangers in europe so i think there are real warning signs now going up in paris and london and places like that and rome, by the way.

>> all of it drives money into the dollar u.s. corporations feel that. alan, thank you. good to check in with you. former vice chairman of the federal reserve, now at princeton. when we come back, under armour getting hammered today. one of the worst performing names on the s&p we'll tell you why in a minute. tomorrow on "squak in the street", kevin plank will join us and "squawk on the street" continues in a minute.

so lionel, what does being able to trade 24/5 mean to you? well, it means i can trade after the market closes. it's true. so all... evening long. ooh, so close. yes, but also all... night through its entirety. come on, all... the time from sunset to sunrise. right. but you can trade... from, from... from darkness to light. ♪ you're not gonna say it are you?

top strategist lindsay bell lays out her number one risk to the market next year find out what that is on trading nation.cnbc.com. more "squawk on the street" is coming up.

>> welcome back to "squawk on the street." the top analysts are there

it's the first time companies have been doing this since 2015. they're outlining a five-year plan with the breakdown of recession from restructuring mode into how they're going to get done the stock is up 10% since the reported third quarter results in late october. it is giving up those gains this morning. worst performer in the s&p 500 the reason, so far what's coming out of the meeting, long-term guidance is worrying investors actually, the stock has performed poorly since the peak in september 2015 to zoom out a little bit the stock is all over the map. that's because of the sharp decline in revenue growth. kevin plank, ceo, kicking off this morning telling investors that the company grew so quickly that they lost focus referring to the early years at get big fast he is optimistic about what's ahead. listen. >> we're roughly two years flew what we've defined as a three-year transformation for our business and over the past two years we've been successfully executing against a strategic, operational and

cultural transformation to become smarter, faster and strong stronger. >> plank calling the next chapter protect our house saying that they've gotten organized, are working on executing their profitability. that's been the big story lately it's why shares are up into today and more than 50% into the year tomorrow we'll get all of those questions answered first on cnbc under armour ceo kevin plank and patrick frisk. they brought him in last year to help him clean up the operating performance and margins. there are signs of progress on that front, guys one of the biggest questions investors have is the relationship between those two how much leverage does frisk have how much of a leach does he have to make some of these changes given that plank is such a big, dominant personality that's going to be really interesting to see the dynamic just as far as the early indication as to why the stock is moving so much lower. below consensus 2019 guidance looks like the north american ebida margin guide is

disappointing. some of the metrics that had analysts pretty optimistic about going into today are coming in a little bit underwhelming the setup is so important it's been such a big star. >> any comment at all about the current quarter and what demand has been like for the holiday season >> nothing so far. we'll ask plank about it the story with under armour is getting europe back to growth while international has been booming. they need product innovation and that's going to be the key to get back to the growth rates they were doing 20% over the growth years now it slowed down. >> who's the number one innovator in your area these days >> nike. >> nike is on top of its game in that front and you see it in the stock market. >> a day where lieu lieu gets an upgrade out of -- >> lieu lieu has done well but of the big three, sort of nike, adidas, under armour krury 6s came out yesterday. let's send it over to john now >> morning, sara digital delivery is a big story here on the floor. playing tencent music opening in

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." positive trade news on that china front has progressed in sending stocks higher to start the day. the dow is up over a percent 10 of 11 at this point are in the green with health care, tech and energy leading the way higher the industrial sector also making some gains, up over a percent. check out shares of caterpillar, boeing, all moving higher. these stocks often considered bellwethers when it comes to global trade those particular shares moving higher on those positive developments back over to you guys, carl, at the stock exchange. >> dom, thanks. let's get to rick santelli and get the santelli exchange. good morning, rick. >> good morning, carl. very excited guest i always get very excited when we have jim granti on. thanks for joining us, jim i've been waiting to talk to you about this topic over the last several weeks i keep up with negative interest

rates around the globe and many firms do something research on this what piqued my interest was a barclay's piece that pointed out that negative interest rates that peaked around 2016 have made a resurge ence over the la two months so 7.75 trillion from 5.75 trillion in a risk off mode, what sdjdoes this tell us when central banks are thinking recession may be coming >> well, i think it tells you the degree of confidence in the institution of central banking and of currencies that people are willing to invest knowing that they will lose money on a promise to pay it's -- you know an interesting

coincidence that the $7.6 trillion in negative yield bonds almost equals the above ground dollar value of gold bullion gold outyields 7.7 or so trillion of paper claims and yet the stewards of those claims are happy to own the thing that yields less than the legacy form of money i find it quite striking >> no, that is quite striking. a commodity doing better than a fixed income product i read your most recent letter and it was a bit depressing, jim. you're basically saying -- >> for who >> 90% of the assets around the globe lately are pricing

negative and you haven't seen that confluence of percentages but maybe one or two times in the last hundred years equate that with the negative interest rate story. do we see something there? >> well, it was deutsche bank that observes that 90% of the asset classes it monitors have delivered today, this is through mid-november, negative returns, so who knows what it is now. but what is so -- to me so interesting and provocative about this information is that 90% is far and away the highest since 1901 when somebody started collating this stuff the runner-up to this year was 1920 now, in 1920 there was the depression that rivaled for intensity the opening acts of the great depression so, you know, i think what we are seeing in this 90%, what we

are ceiliseeing is the evil fru the manipulation of interest rates by the world central banks. you have had ten years of manipulation of the most critical price in capitals, the basic rate of interest and it has distorted very nearly everything that is traded. >> well, if that's the case, and we almost are out of time, jim, i guess my final question is do you still stick with the tried and true investments that equities outperform in the long run, or do we need to tweak the entire model >> well, there's a very interesting new study by an emeritus professor, professor mcquarry and he observes that if you go back and look at the actual price data which have been assemble ed by others, you findg the story line of inevitable and

perpetual outperformance of equities over a long investment period is actually not reliable. >> jim, i'm going to have to leave it there we'll pick that up next time you come back. thank you, jim carl, back to you. >> all right, guys, thanks so much rick santelli, jim grant. when we come back u.p.s.ceo david abney joins us, he talks about how they are faring this season "squawk alley" starts next duncan just protected his family

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