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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  December 17, 2018 5:00pm-6:00pm EST

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relief down the road we're in this game of how low is low, how extreme is extreme. you don't really know. it is a perfectly plausible flush we've had, just maybe not as extreme as people would like to see >> pl >> all right thanks for watching. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site, i'm melissa lee. we have your traders on the desk tonight on fast, red december is on stocks tanking again today, but one strategist says the market isn't dead yet plus it just keeps getting worse for goldman sachs, but the chart master says there is one thing that has him pressing the buy button and we start with the market selloff, s&p 500 taking out the february lows in the final minutes of trading we did slightly bounce off the
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low. meantime the dow droping more than 500 points, nasdaq wiping out its gains for the year sos as we sink further into a correction, are we heading straight for a bear market are the bears here to stay >> we're in the window of the holiday. >> and so a christmas special. >> when the market is nos as t g of a turmoil i think the feds should move but i can actually layout a bull case for the market now that the fed maybe moves and then gets dovish for all of 2019 or better they say we're not doing anything, we've test that had 2030 level that you just talked about from the february low. and so maybe people got themselves so bearish that wednesday they could get
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themselves a bit of a christmas present early and the market rallies the rest of the year that said, i think the fed will be making a big mistake by not moving >> i think that it would be a huge problem for fed chairs if they really do give into just down 7% in the market this month and also the pressure from the president. because really what they are doing is ceding control for a good time to the president >> why would it be the president, why wouldn't it just be market factors? >> that is all i know. i've been hearing dot plots during five years for this whole period of just extraordinary monetary easing. and now they are tightening, sticking to their guns i think they have to do it >> i think the fed should not raise. >> i've changed my mind. i've sort of come around to maybe they should not or the scenario that guy laid out, very
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dovish, not putting themselves in the corner for 2019 i also -- you and i were talking about this a bit, is it off the table that they make some change to shrinking the portfolio >> the qt. >> right is that so -- it seems to be it is not in the conversation, it is all about the fed raising rates or not, i don't know if that is something that could become in play >> if qe helped on the way up, doesn't have qf have a dampening effect >> it sure does. there is a lot at work here. i think also the fed could look at what is going on in credit markets. and i think that to me is what is different about what has gone on in the last three to four weeks. you may have seen the leverage loan in-dweks thdex that is out activity you can see the ft did a nice highlight of the fact that the high yield market, which is 1.2 trillion, has had zero issuance this money
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and if it goes to the end of the month, that will be -- las it did that was november 2008. no tisign of the impact of credt down grades yet. that is a little rare for where we are right now so credit concerns me. >> let me add one more thing about that piece today, the op-ed piece. i was sort of wondering if it was some out kevin throwing his hat into the ring again to be the fed chair, right we know that trump really didn't like powell. i'm not saying that this is likely but just that was the first thought in my mind saying, hey, i will be more dovish. not that i think powell is bad i don't. >> can we all agree though in the last ten years when markets and our economy has been very reliant on central panning pobak policies, that the market do not like surprises and i think it would be a huge mistake for jerome powell to
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diverge too much from expectations right now a 68% chance of an increase of 25 bips this week. so why do they want to surprise anyone there is public debate going on, very public debate so it didn't make any sense. >> what about something very dovish in terms of what they layout for 2019. >> there won't be anything that is very, very anything it may be more dovish than it was. just like the statement about being closer to neutral. >> if everybody and their brother is now saying one hike and then a pause or some sort of dovish hike, what is the market response to that if the markets are sort of anticipating that, do you think that we'll get a pop on the back of that? >> built into this conversation, none of us are saying this, but i think there is a belief that the only market has gone down since october is because of the federal reserve. i don't think that is true by the way. but i think a lot of people believe that and if you look at twitter and read a lot of things that are out there, a lot of people think that but for the fed, this market would be making new highs.
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i'm not one of those people. but to answer your question, i think if they were to take a more dovish tone given what we've done, given the levels that we tested today, the fact that now the vix is around 25, you could set yourself up for a pretty nice rally in trn i think that is a rally that should be sold and will be sold, but that is how it is setting up to me. >> i still think trade is the number one issue facing this market and i don't know that we'll get any kind of improvement by march 1 is it february 1 or march? anyway, that to me is still the biggest issue out there because it is such uncertainty and companies making their projections way more than a quarter point of hike. >> what i will say, we're definitely not at sk of going into higher gear if anything, people are starting to talk about where we are coming into the first quarter of next year. the bottom line is impact on s&p
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earnings is really all that matters. and to say that we should be unchanged on the expectations of where we were for s&p earnings, that does not take into account not only only the bearishness, but we have heard some major negative head winds from around the world which i think are important. >> so here is the question are we headed to a bear market earlier today on halftime report, jeffrey dunlap had a warning for the markets. >> people like the definition of 20% down, but that is very arbitrary. i've been around for over 35 year there is this business as s kind of how you lead into it and how sentiment changes. and i think we've had pretty much all of the variables that characterize a bear market >> and so from the price action, i've been around for a little more than 20 years and i've seen two bear markets
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the one in 2002, the bottom in 2002 really in october of 2002, was pretty bad it was long and every rally got sold tlrm some there were some amazing rallies in it. '08 was response to a major crisis and so two important differences. could we bang around and get ourselves back to 2000 in the s&p over the next year without a crisis yeah, that would feel a lot like a bear market. and i think that could be a healthy thing after we've had a ten year bull market >> i don't think that the mar get is treating the current environment and think of all the disparate but important factors to s&p earnings. i thinks market is trying to figure out whether there is a crisis moment. while because the u.s. banks are as healthy as they have ever been, i am worried about net debt to ebitda
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and i'm worried about europe we're a headline away from a lot of political discomfort. >> and i agree that bear market is sort of arbitrary but at the same time, investors at home, they want to know is 2019 going to be easier or harder to make money versus 2018 >> 2018 was far from easy. >> right so is it ease why are ier or ha? >> if every single asset class finishes the year lower, it has to be only as hard or easier you can't have everything. but let me ask you, what is the bear market. 20% down but what else? every rally is sold, is it that good news it doesn't matter? is it that -- i mean is that what you are talking about i'm not -- >> technically it is just down 20%. >> but there is a lot more to
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it and la liquidity leaving the market -- >> also dan's point is that also relative to where we've come from, we're only 13% off the top. it is a lot worse below the surface. and relative to where we've come from, you can make an argument that this is still a correction even though there is no question that the sentiment is so awful other than s&p outlook and zep ea -s&p earnings outlook. >> all right joe, i think a lot of people had a call for year end rally. but what. >> a lot of people have been wrong by that. >> why are you sticking by the bull at this point? >> the conditions are not in place. whether nelg difference eagativh
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or negative -- i think what people are confusing is we might have seen peak earnings growth, but it didn't mean that it i granted we're not growing at 10% year over year, but we still have positive growth rates so i think it means that this selloff is overdone. i think this is a sentiment issue, not a fundamental issue that we're seeing here >> so let's look ahead to 2019 2018 is pretty much in the rearview mirror. so what are you seeing in terms of what kind of returns you are expecting? >> i think that they will be positive we don't have our 2019 price target yet, but generally fundamentals argue that number one we will see earnings growth. slower, but we will see it and we're not headed toward a recession in any major economy i think there are worries in europe, specifically italy and
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brexit, but generally speaking, what we knew back in september, think about september 21 when the market hit 29340 on t40 on . number one, trade war. number two, brexit number three, slowing earnings growth and slowing year over year gchltsdp growth. what is different today the ten year treasury yields is better are for equity valuation. if you think about how to value companies, it is earnings and interest rates both are tail winds for equities so i think there is an overreaction >> so can you explain that it wouldn't take so much to have the yield curve invert, to have earnings get to basically negative, right? negative growth. these are not things that are now something that we have to think out that it could take 18 to 24 months to happen isn't that correct
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they happen pretty quickly if we had a global slowdown and some sort of event. >> i think you're right. these things can happen anytime. but what people misunderstand about a yields curve, it can stay floot forat for a long time but economic growth and markets can take off so it is not really a warning sign of anything the data tells you that markets and the economies can do well in a flat yield curve so i don't think that it will automatically invert it could and once it inverts, we'll have a recession to 12 to 18 months, but i don't think that the yield curve will invert anytime soon and on negative earnings growth, it happens and i think what people confuse is that business cycle works in a different speed than an economic cycle and a business cycle, corporate profits, your prove in earnings to a peak in earnings, the
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average time is seven quarters where economic cycle is many years. so you have greater ups and downs. so 2015 we saw neck differengatg growth but i don't think that we automatically tip over into negative earning growth the next few quarters >> joe, thank you. a ray of sunshine on the desk. >> good for joe for coming in here and to hear a view that is back to the view that he said a couple months ago people couldn't find enough positive things to say. again, i'll remind that i think credit markets had not fallen apart. what bothers me since september is that credit markets in mid october did fall apart we are getting a dynamic will i think that that will feed into the optimism but you started to see again this housing index thing, last two months, biggest move would he have se-- we've seen in many
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years. >> and i think that silver lining is this, we could get news out of the fed that gives us a couple week rally that will surprise a lot with that said, europe is a mess you are talking about 5.3 trld balance sheet over there you are talking about a lot of negative rates across the continent which is disturbing. a lot of head winds. and what dan talks about as well we don't even talk about the potential for political risk here in the form of a mueller investigation. that is not a political commentary, that is out there. and with every passing day i think that grows more viable still ahead, check out shares of oracle jumping the conference call is under way right now. we'll bring you the headlines. plus joon son ahnson & johnson hit again today. the ceo sat down with jim cramer and late are goldman sachs adding to its losses this year so what has the chart master wying this stock?
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heill explain. much more "fast money" right after this
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>> we announced this afternoon and frankly tak it is ly it is of our confidence going forward. and we could not be more excited about the future if you look at the fundamental and underlying strengthpharmace sector, we think that we are well positioned for growth going forward. >> the stock is down more than 10% in the last two sessions alone shedding more than $50 billion in market cap. so will the buy become oback he stock? >> unless i'm mistaken, johnson & johnson's are market cap is $340 billion so $5 billion is token in my world. but it will help in the short term i still think there are headline risks here i think that we could do 360 back to the 120 level that we saw earlier this year. i think that firms of valuation, that makes it interesting. i think that there is shed lihee risk
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assuming this is behind them, 5 build notwithstanding, if you like proctor and gamble recently at 24 times forward earnings, even with this news, you got to love j and j at 15 >> and what is reuters article, an analyst said that everything revealed was actually already in court documents presented to the court but not made public. so finally they make to the public but the question is whether or not more lawsuits will come forth and so therefore more money out of pocket for j and j to settle. >> and i'm not a lawyer, i won't get involved in an anti trust case but i will say from what i've read, this sounds like this will be tough to prove. but the bottom line is i think for the market, the loss of leadership from a company like j and j is notable and this is not a headline you would have thought of, but before the headlines, this company was not cheap. on a relative basis, sure, own
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it all day but that the stage of a market cycle, this is a very expensive company on balance sheet, on their core business, on how well they are run albeit maybe stuff here but on valuation, not terribly interesting frankly. and i think probably most people are neutral on that. >> don't miss the full interview with jim tonight on "mad money." coming up, check out oracle. we'll bring you the latest and this year may have seemed like a horror show for goldman sachs as the stock gets crushed. but the chart master sees i bmpy butt button and this year karen has three years to buy target.
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she'll explain when "fast money" returns.
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welcome back financials were the best performing sector although still in the red bob pisani has the details >> hello the good news today is the banks outperformed on a relative basis. but with the s&p down 2%, some banks were flat or eked out small gains. so comerica, fifth third, pnc, no the bad the bad news is this group is down nearly 20% for the year
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they couldn't sustain 2 administers on the day oversold doesn't really describe what has happened to this group. most of the big names are down 30% or more off of their 52 week highs. goldman in particular caught up in a major investment fund scandal as malaysia files charges against that firm. and now we're seeing other sectors getting hit. american express just hit a historic high, but it has docome down to 101. and visa has been a monster all year 150 in october, but then it has traded right in line with the s&p 500. still up 16% for the year though same with master card. trading almost in line with the s&p. acting like some kind of future barometer of u.s. spending
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don't let the selloff spook you too much there is a multidecade shift that has been going on from checks into electronic payments. and these two are the stars in the space. i would expect that growth to continue into 2019 back to you. >> bob, thank you. next guest says there is still one name worth a buy and it might surprise you. and carter worth mahas the name >> let's talk about the sector overall. no interest in financials as a long so the current classifications that we have go back to 1989, and what this 1, tis, the weighg of the financials in the s&p we are nowhere nears epic lows 1990, financials were as low 6%
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right now we're about 13.5%. if you were to draw some lines, again this is the weighting of financials in the overall s&p, it is still nowhere near sort of capitulation as where energy might be in terms of goldman versus bkx, this is the correlation between goldman in blue and the bkx dominated by super cap financials of which of course goldman is one and then of course you have this fairly extreme news related we heard from bob, but the question, is it overdone or is the market discounting all the bad news draw some lines. we have the index. are we down to the election low? meaning this is the presidential election and now watch this, if i put these lines in, what we know is we are not down to where we were after the presidential election in november of 2016. so my bet is that financials as
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an aggregate can still go quite a bit lower. but then take a look at goldman. goldman is in fact as of today retraced the entire election move you see the lines right there. you can literally draw it, we have gone and undone it. you also know this is a head and shoulders top. but to some extent it has been played out the neck line being there. so my hunch is that goldman is actually so bad it is good versus financials overall which are not. one or two more charts there is goldman again one more i think okay now, this is going back to 2000, 1999 when goldm$1999 when goldmo and today we literally stopped right there. my bet is that you can get a nice little bounce, bounce, bounce off that line goldman long so bad it is good >> carter must come over to this
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desk come on over, please shelby will bring the chair in shelby our new page. >> welcome, sthel b shelby. >> and how do we know that the idiosyncratic nature will -- >> we don't. the market has a way after a long decline to have a -- >> have we seen that >> i'll make the bets that it is close enough we're looking for pricing target goldman has been under this pressure for a long time from the group and then it is under specific pressure to its security and then today yet another piece of news. it seems to me, and again the symmetry of the move, you step in and be a bit --
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>> so today american express one of the first mega cap stocks that made a new high during recovery and now down 4.5 when you talk about banks, hardest hit, but now consumer credit names kind of taking it on the chin. how do you think of that -- >> those are safety names and we saw it happen in the staples there is a cycle to selling. typically the weak go first. we saw industrials, semis, financials but faang was holding out. and then it clusters in to safe names. end of the day, nothing holds up at some point the selling gets around to everybody. >> most of the time he is right. but it is interesting, forgets about goldman sachs. it is what it is morgan stanley is an 18, 19
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month low. citibank trading significantly below their tangible book. even jpmorgan is 16% off their highs. so my question is, what is -- there is something wrong with the banks. what do you think it is? >> if you remember we were trying going into a cycle change, even a contraction, financials will underperform almost no instance in history where financials are outperforming in a period of economic weakness. so in fact the financials likely do have more town sidown side w goldman might have priced it all in >> and where does volume come into your analysis >> it is the number one thing. it is more important than price. the level of activity, whether in real estate or in any endeavor, the more phrenetic, the more symptomatic of -- it occurs at market bottoms and tops this is clearly a market top
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we made a good ten yearumecarte. inside the election, i think there is a number of important fundamental differences to why banks should be trading above that election level. they include the fact that the regulatory environment or deregulation is certainly their friend that may have been half the reason that they bought them and balance sheets have been stress tested over and over again. so that is the one part of this that is troubling for me because banks shouldn't be trading here on valuation. i get that they could be less profitable, there is credit out there, but not this environment. >> and we have breaking news here, former chairman of ceo les
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moonv moonves. julia has the details. >> and les moonves will not receive any of the $120 million in severance that was in question the board has completed its investigation into the former chairman saying, quote, with regard to mr. moonves, we have determined that there are grounds to determine nature for cause including his willful and material misfeasance,violation of company policies and breach of his employment contract, as well as his willful failure to cooperate fully with the company's investigation. mr. moonves will not receive any severance payment from the company. the board also saying that the investigators included that harassment and retaliation are not pervasive at cbs, but also that resources devoted to human resources, training and development and diversity and inclusion initiatives have been inadequa inadequate, also that there were instances in which hr and the company did not hold high performers accountable cbs shares run changed, but
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those shares does lit a hit a 5 low. >> recently i read that he wanted to challenge the idea that he wouldn't get the severance. do you think that will happen? >> we'll see this statement from the board does seem pretty definitive. just looking at the way that they say willful and material, these are practice dwri can't m statements here. it is possible that he will still challenge it, but it does seem like a pretty definitive investigation done by outside counsel. >> all right thank you. stillacle is under way and we'll get a reaction from wall street. plus an all out mess for the retail stocks. a number of names are still up, we'll tell you what they are and if they are bort the b uy
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oracle rallying after hours. the conference call is still under way about th josh lipton is following it. >> it popped after hours
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total revenues q3 growing between 3% and 4%. n nongach and you saw the stock pop. mark herd also on the call take a listen. >> apps had a spectacular quarter. glowing 7% for the overall ecosystem over $11 billion in trail be ing 12 months and 91% f that is now recurring revenue. we continue to grow revenue faster than the market we have an enormous opportunity ahead of us. >> and also on the call and talking wi talking, amazon not there yet.
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so back to you >> and dan gave me a few door y-- tutorial in the break. you are smack in the middle of wrank. value saying not expensive, but not that cheap they bought back a lot of stock. there are better places to be. i don't think that you will get crushed here, but it won't rally 15 percent either. so if you want momentum, i think this indicates that its sale force is the superior company. and options traders applying a big move dan has this. >> and this is important we know this trades at a single digits per share options markets is implying about a $3 move in either direction. and that is rich to the average.
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look at in one year chart, showing almost a 50% decline from the 52 week highs stock be down 17.5% on the year and very close to the 52 week lows but here is the six year chart this is really interesting look at how this stock can move here back in 2016, this company had 11 -- actually had negative earnings and then two years, 11.5 in earnings that declined from the prior top. only about 50% so to me, i don't know how you put a number on it when it stops going down it has been cheap forever. but at a certain point it has to be so bad it is good where investors are just diskountsding the end of the cycle
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>> and the semis have at least performed birn tetter than the and tech. >> caller: sin-- tech since they fell art p fell since the rest of market. so i think that is the key still ahead, retail stocks getting a lump of coal but the chairwoman karen here says there is one name that could be a major bargain she'll tell us what that is. plus it has been exactly one year since bitcoin toned out just under $20,000 and the bulls have buried. y anend to the bear market in sight? trader let's weigh in. what do you look for when you trade? i want free access to research. yep, td ameritrade's got that. free access to every platform. yeah, that too. i don't want any trade minimums. yeah, i totally agree, they don't have any of those. i want to know what i'm paying upfront. yes, absolutely. do you just say yes to everything?
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hm. well i say no to kale. mm. yeah, they say if you blanch it it's better, but that seems like a lot of work. no hidden fees. no platform fees. no trade minimums. and yes, it's all at one low price. td ameritrade. ♪
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the consumer discretionary sector in the s&p 500 is down. this quarter to date but even as the spats hce has ge crush, you take macy's, still up 19% on the year. tjx is down around 20 percent this quarter, but still up for 2018 and lulu lemm plunged nearly 30%%, but up an impressive 50% since then and target now slightly negative on the year, but still managing in in relative and all of this with consumer confidence still up. so are they already pricing in a possible pullback by consumers next year or will they reverse
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course >> and dom mentioned target mitting tmitl hitting low levels >> and i always look to valuation first. and so that is one of my favorite things about target here p.e. ratio, it has been so much higher, but here we are with earnings trading at -- i don't know how many year low, but a long time since it has been at this level and i think earnings will actually be pretty good. why is that? testimo it will survive amazon what they are trying to do is be able to really be online player as well. we saw in their last quarter they had very good comps by the way, but a lot of that was driven by their online business. so i think that that will continue to develop and i think that they will absolutely sur life amazon.
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the other part of the story is the transformation of the stores themselves you want people to go in the stores, they can pick up in store and order online, they can go on the store, stores are starting to look great a multiyear veneration process of the stores. so i think that if you add all those things together, plus the very low expectations that are built in, i think that the stock overreacted to the last ernlg i earnings call. so i think there is not a lot of down side. >> it bounced and now below the levels similar to what facebook has done does it concern you that maybe -- i know you say nerve buy tnerve -- never the buy the bomb, but
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is the damage done >> i think damage is done. this is more retail broadly. but the risk/reward has changed a lot before maybe it shouldn't have been up there in the 80s, but i don't think that it should be in the 64 and change. so it has a 12ish multiple >> talk about the multiple >> that is pricprimarily what p didn't like. a 49 to a 48 handle. people were concerned as the shift to a o. lionline handlings compress, i think that is true macy's has the same situation. as the online business develops, are margins will compress, however the p.e.s have compressed well beyond that. so i think that is in there too 12k3w4 >> all right, thanks, karen. >> would that be kind of like a
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power itcpitch? >> more like making a case >> karen did a great job so let's play the game i think i'm worried about the entire space there is competition in everything that they do. >> i know dan didn't like them >> she just dimed you. coming up, bitcoin one year after it topped out around 20,000, is a bottom near an investor will be here to explain.
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welcome back today is a special anniversary for bitcoin. last year on the this day everyone wanted to get in on the crypto craze >> bitcoin could be at 40,000 by the end of 2018. easily could >> these calls are a bet that if it is volatile for the up side, we could easily see over 50,000. >> i think bitcoin still has really bright prospects. >> are you sticking by the forecast >> yes, we think it can reach 25,000 we still think that bitcoin can reach 20,000 >> and in terms of institutional participation, we need to see institutions participate in the underlying for your forecast of 50 k to hit in the next year
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>> i don't think so. i think there will be a natural trickle down into the underlying >> here we are a year late,plun% from the oall-time high. but the next guest says even though he was wrong, tell be rig - he will be right next year what is year it has been you said $50,000 are you going to venture with the forecast now >> look, in sxwgeneral we're no doing short term price targets could bitcoin company go to 50,0 absolute absolutely how long will it take? i'm not sure
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>> what was faulty about the run to 20,000? at the time it seemed like every bitcoin bull said that was fine and it was only going to go higher i feel like we can't believe the bull case from here unless we understand what was wrong about that thesis that brought to 20,000 >> there is absolutely nothing wrong with the thesis. the problem is that up until very recently, birth quoin hc b driven by retail it means that in bull are markets we go a little too high and breyer mear market taos loso ignore the price we started to move to scale bitcoin where you ca extremely cheaply. and we've seen endowments like yale, harvard, ich m.i.t. move
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into the says. we have seen qualified custodians move into the space and lastly, i think probably the most encouraging thing is the quality of the talent that we're seeing this has captured the imagination and a lot of best and brightest are saying i want to work on bitcoin >> a lot of people got burned on this and you said the trade was driven largely by retail investors. do need tyou think we've seen tw for bitcoin going forward? do you think this -- we'll look back and say that was the low, the buying opportunity >> i think takit is a great buyg opportunity right now. could we go absolutely absolutely i think when we look back 24 months from now even 12 months from now, we will say why didn't i buy then
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>> i hope so i hone it is not why did i buy then as we are here sit being a year later spencer, always great to speak with you thank you. and quickly, dan -- >> i think obviously bitcoin was the first major use case and there will be peaks and troughs. so as far as i'm concerned, could it go lower? yeah i watched the money. followed the ecosystem there is a lot of very smart >>p xtysm.ing the ecoste une, final trades [leaf blower]
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time for the final trade >> certainly a make a list time of year and also if stocks in the market that look beaten down volume a first class company >> and they announced a buyback. >> and if it is good enough for me, i do like it, i think that it very oversold here and i think that -- there is more ratio from here actually >> and ororacle, i would not che it in after market >> and i know you like sports. do you think the yankees make a play for bryce harper? >> absolutely >> i do too.
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>> final trade, sir? >> the cbs, good for them. good for them. cbs bounces from here. >> that does it for us tonight "mad money" starts right now starts right now my mission is simple -- to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you some money my job isn't just to entertain but to educate you and put this in context for you call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me @jimcramer we need a washout. the dow plunged 508 and s&

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