. is the selloff finally over or do we still have more room to fall, the futures right now in the green but there are warning signs still flashing oil alert. crude sell off in a big way this morning. it is back below 50 a barrel on the defense johnson & johnson ceo in big time damage control mode the company's baby powder controversy is growing cbs stripping former ceoless moonves of $120 million. and by the way, if you want something delivered by christmas, and we know you do, today is your day to get it in the mail in time we are live on the front lines on the last minute holiday rush

on tuesday, december 18th, and worldwide exchange begins right now. now, that is some music. all right, good morning, and welcome. from wherever in the world you may be watching. i'm brian sullivan and it is shaping up to be another busy day on the street of dreams, and things are looking a little more rosy this morning, right now after yesterday's 507 point hair cut for the dow. futures were higher this time yesterday as well. we're up 149 on dow futures. by the way, the dow posting one of its worst months in years, the index down 7 1/2% skrjust i december, and we have more eye opening stats coming up. right now, markets looking pretty good, s&p and nasdaq futures up as well keep in mind, this could change. we have seen it change the last couple of days but right now, up 144. you also need to watch the oil

and gas stocks again no sector has been hit harder during this market route than energy, and oil is not only under 50 a barrel, it's under 49 a barrel crude oil down 3% to 48.31 the energy sector has lost investors 20% of their money, just this quarter. well, i guess on the flip side, the ten-year yield is something to watch, keeping the mortgage market alive it is at 2.83% we are seeing a year where the yield on the ten-year is likely to finish out the year under 3% yet again. of course, we had it happen in 2013 where we were just above it only to fall back down all right, in the worldwide markets, japan, ouch it was a tough go there, the worst performance in asia, they took down their gdp forecast, ongoing trade tensions, the nay

k -- nikkei falling 1.8%. the shanghai composite down 8/10 of 1%. that has been a year to forget for the chinese equity markets just how rough has it been for your money the last couple of weeks. well, you better pour some coffee, some strong coffee and check this out three major sectors, energy, materials, financials. all down more than 20% from their most recent 52-week highs. in other words, they're in bare markets and those three groups alone represent about 1/5, about 22% of the entire market weight. let's now bring in alex drieden, global market strategist at jp morgan asset management. it's 5:03 in the morning on this side of the pond i hate to have those kind of stats. it's not the way anybody wants to start their day as jp morgan, are you guys even surprise surprised by how weak this market has been the last couple of weeks. >> i think the volatility we have been seeing creeping into the financial markets came in

really around the beginning of october, has really been triggered by the fact that the tina trade has died, stands for there is no alternative. the investors had nowhere to go but stocks now what we have seen is that the risk adjusted returns in the bum market are starting to look better, and investors are beginning to rotate. there is now an alternative, and the investors are looking to take that. move out of equities, reallocate to bonds, we are late in the cycle. investors are putting bubble wrap into their portfolios as a protection in case we hit a bump in the road down the line in 2019. >> i guess there is an alternative to tina, which is to your point, alex, the bond market, does that mean that for the majority of jp morgan asset management's clients they need to be happy with 2 1/2 to 3 1/2% returns for the next year? >> i think that we can still see some opportunities in some areas of the equity markets.

it's not that we're saying that investors need to move dramatically out of equities and into fixed income, what we are looking for is a little bit of maybe dialing down the risk, looking to accept back into some core fixed income holdings this is now not really the time for big punchy bets in the equity markets we still see some opportunities, maybe even more so after the recent selloff and the valuations being offered are quite attractive at this stage we are saying to investors, we're late in the cycle, dial back on the risks, this isn't the time for punchy bets. >> from an equity market perspective, alex, help us make money. you obviously see value somewhere. where do you see value >> so where we see some value at the moment, getting into this late cycle stage, we can actually see some opportunities in the financial space within the united states. we're also seeing some opportunities in the international markets, particularly in emerging marks emerging markets have had a tough 2018, the dollar has been

to blame for a lot of that, but we do believe looking out over the next few years, the dollar will begin to weaken that will take a lot of pressure off emerging markets, investors who got in at today's attractive valuation levels could be rewarded for taking that risk in the long run. >> alex drieden, live from london, and we appreciate it thank you very much. >> thank you very much. your top corporate story on this tuesday remains johnson & johnson. they are in full damage control mode the company now announcing a $5 billion share buy backback. j and j stock down 12% this month. that's 5% more than the dow. and it's all on reports that johnson & johnson knew for decades that there was asbestos in its baby powder j and j ceo alex gorsky denies those allegations. he sat down with jim cramer last night on mad money. >> we unequivocally believe that our talc, our baby powder does

not contain asbestos, and that's demonstrated in thousands of studies, studies not only conducted by johnson & johnson but studies conducted by independent authorities, well respected authorities where we work closely with regulators who are overlooking the methodology and by the way, throughout this process, we also not only used the best testing methodologies that were available but we continued to improve them through the years. >> now, jim also pressed gorsky on a bomb shell reuters report that the company withheld information from the food and drug administration back in the day about the presence of asbestos in its talc >> the fda at the time confirmed that not only was the methodology and testing that we were using the correct one but they agreed our talc, our baby powder did not contain asbestos. >> but reuters investigation said it didn't tell the agency that three tests from three different labs from 1972 to 1975

found asbestos in its talc, in one case at levels reported at rather high. >> what's important in these cases as you're reviewing the documents is to look at all the information in totality, especially when you're dealing with matters of science. >> jim also asked gorsky why the company did not provide reuters with a comment to its investigation piece. here's his response. >> reuters person searched that your company declined to respond to the article, you offered to make an expert available but you had not done so as of thursday evening. you turned out repeated requests for an interview with j and y execs. >> that's not true we tried to engage in this in fact, we provided a large amount of information and our biggest concern is why wasn't a lot of information that we talked about provided and talked about in a more open, more balanced and transparent way. >> gorsky clearly disagreeing

with the reuters report, and this story is not going anywhere we're going to hear much more about this later on this morning from attorney mark le -- lanier. one of the most successful trial attorneys in the world he will join the "squawk box" team to rebut some of what gorsky said last night. cbs stripping its former ceoless moonves of a massive pay package. kate rogers joining us with more on the story. >> cbs announcing moonves is not entitled to his $120 million severance package. he was ousted following allegations of sexual misconduct, harassment and threat of retaliation. at the time, cbs said it set the severance aside, but warned moonves wouldn't get the money if the board determined it had cause to fire him. the board says it has grounds to terminate moonves for violating company policy and breach of

contract and he failed to cooperate fully with the company's investigation. the board didn't provide details but "the new york times" has reported the probe found moonves deleted text messages and was evasive. moonves's attorney says his client vehemently denies nonconsensual relationships and cooperated three people have lost their jobs over misconduct allegations moonves, charlie rose and jeff fager. the board which includes six new members since moonves was ousts said it is taking steps to improve the working environment for all employees. >> thank you very much. we are getting started on this very busy tuesday morning, including the big warning signs for stocks and maybe one reason to be optimistic, and later on the retail rush, we are exactly one week away from christmas it is crunch time for both sh

shoppers and shippers. we take you back to the front line of the last minute christmas crunch when worldwide chgeom bk. ♪ there's no place like home ♪

argh! i'm trying... ♪ yippiekiyay. ♪ mom. ♪ good morning, 5:13 on the east coast hope you're having a great start to the day futures are up we lost 107 points yesterday it doesn't look at this early hour like the sell through will

continue so futures up about 150 points now futures may be higher right now. but your next guest says the markets woes are likely not over in fact, his latest piece was titled you have been warned. joining us now is sven hendrick, founder or north band trader and apparently he also has a reason to be optimistic we'll end with the optimistic note in the near term, by the way, it's good to see you this market has not looked good technically or fundamentally what more do you see coming from a selling perspective? >> good to be with you well, we're currently breaking through some major trend lines, support lines in the market, and that's a big concern obviously we just hit the february lows again yesterday, which are support. and because we are breaking, there is risk due to downside, and we don't have a confirmed bottom yet what i'm looking for is obviously some sort of signal that we have a confirmed bottom in place, and maybe the fed will

be the trigger for that this week. >> in fact, we heard jim cramer talking about how there's three risks to the market, the fed, the fed and the fed. do you agree with that >> you know, it's interesting, we're coming into this fed meeting with extremely oversold readings now that doesn't typically happen and historically the fed meeting is a trigger for upside. so it's clear the market wants to have some sort of certainty or some sort of positive news. any news right now is bad, which is exactly the polar opposite from what we have seen at the beginning of the year when everything was good news. >> how much of this market is being driven by technicals and how much is being driven by fundamentals and/or the fed. who's in charge? >> i think right now technicals are key driver of everything at the beginning of the year, too much good news and too much

optimism and we had a tax cut which may have been the final drug to get the market overdosed. then we had an initial correction that was kind of your first shot in the dark in terms of maybe something is in the bushes, then new hires in the summer and the fall on all these thinning market participation with big technical extensions and then we had the big sign here that we have seen before, we had new highs on negative diverge, with banking sectors not participating, and this is your classic topping sill. i'm not saying we're have a top in place here, but it's a warning sign because this is basically what you're seeing in 2007 for example. >> now, you assured me that you did have maybe a sliver of hope, a glass half full view, sven, what is your reason to be maybe optimistic about equities here >> aside from the technical

oversold readings here, there's interestingly enough, this is the first december since 2000 where equity markets are making a new yearly low in december back then, we had a similar structure in place where we saw high-tech call extensions on tech, then we saw a lower high and a break down into december that was ultimately a topping market that produced a recession into 2001, 2002. however, in the middle of decemberin december, right before christmas there was a low that produced a large rally of the 10% into late january. markets may be setting up for something similar in terps ms o counter rally. >> maybe a new year's party but a short one, sven? >> back then it went all the way into late january, so this could be a multiweek rally that may emerge. >> i love your charts, i love your perspective and your sense of humor i have been mispronouncing his

name for two years, and i texted him this morning and said call me ryan skprk you did, and that's why i like -- and you did, and that's why i like you, steve. good work. we'll see you soon merry christmas, thank you very much >> merry christmas to you. >> thank you very much he actually looks like christmas. still ahead, count down to shut down, four days away from a federal government shut down no deal on the table we'll get a live report from that town. d.c. next but first, it is christmas crunch time. shoppers are out of time for ground shipping. courtney reagan voluntarily going to kentucky for us courtney, what's happening on the ground there >> reporter: hey, you all, it's not so gad here in kentucky, and not so far away from hi hometown if you haven't finished your christmas shopping yet, you're almost out of time don't worry, i've got all the details on your shipping deadlines coming up soon on worldwide exchange largest gig-speed network

along with complete reliability. then went beyond. beyond clumsy dials-in's and pins. to one-touch conference calls. beyond traditional tv. to tv on any device. beyond low-res surveillance video. to crystal clear hd video monitoring from anywhere. gig-fueled apps that exceed expectations. comcast business. beyond fast.

♪ ♪ (buzzing) gather new insights, leave your data protected on-site, and put it all to work with ai. the ibm cloud. the cloud for smarter business. 5:21 in the morning a beautiful shot of the 30 rock christmas tree speaking of christmas, if you would like to buy something online and have it shipped to family and friends by christmas morning, today is the last day at least if you don't want to pay extra for fast shipping. courtney reagan joining us from a shipping facility in walton. you are inching your way closer

to dayton, ohio my friend. >> that's true i am so close to home but we have a big week to go until we get there. a week from now is really when kids around the country are going to wake up and wonder if santa arrived. so santa's helpers pay attention. today is pretty much your last day for ground shipping without paying a bunch of extra fees and here at radio, this is one of about 20 fulfillment centers like this around the country third party logistics manager that fulfills orders for 75 brands and retail r, as and exp 315,000 orders will be shipped today. 1.7 million between december 16th and 27th, the last week before christmas, and more than 7 million for the month of december now this location is shipping goods for companies like tick's sports goods.com express, rue 21, and others. similar web ran a scan for cnbc

for some of the brands they fulfill to see how web site traffic has fared compared to last year. from november 1st, to december 15th, similar web found ecommerce traffic on rue 21 is down 17% tick's sporting goods is lower by 6%. express.com is off by 5% other radial fulfilled brands are seeing stronger site traffic, kenneth cole is seeing its site traffic up almost 50% new york and company.com up nearly 20%, niemann marcus and ralph lauren is 16% and 12% respectively traffic doesn't always tran late in -- translate into sales today is the last day for free standard shipping in time for christmas for amazon, kohl's, nordstrom and gap. you have a little more time ordering on walmart.com and

target.com but pay attention to the calendar and those shipping deadlines back over to you. so let's say that you're one of those procrastinators out there and you don't go online today, what are your options what have we got we have seven days until the actual morning >> yeah. so besides going to the actual store which is the old fashioned way to do it many people still do it that way. you can use the buy online pickup in store option a lot of retailers are saying you can do that. not everything online is going to be available in the store that quickly because remember, online is an end lets aisle. the store is going to be more finite merchandise you have to find that match. amazon prime now, if you're in an eligible city, that's an option for you if you're an amazon prime member, you can get faster shipping, a little closer to the christmas deadline if you're not a prime member and you're looking for the standard ground, be careful >> more important question, it's 5:24 what's the name of the doughnut

place in dayton where i ran into your sister-in-law that was so delicious. >> reporter: phil's doughnuts, it's the best doughnut place on the planet from the hometown girl of course . >> if you go back to bill's, tell him the big guy that ate six doughnuts says hello. switching gears to our washington watch and we are just 90 hours away from a shut down of the federal government, and it appears that congress may be no closer to the deal the president wants. funding for a border wall. nbc's tracie potts joining us now with more on this story. >> reporter: no news is definitely not good news, and we're getting nothing from here on capitol hill on whether or not lawmakers and president trump can work this out by friday's deadline. the shut down deadline is friday night, and neither side is budging. >> we need to make a substantial investment in the integrity of our border and in the safety of american families. >> reporter: a border wall, president trump is demanding

$5 billion for it. democrats have offered about a third of that for border security nothing for the wall >> his temper tantrum will get him a shut down, but it will not get him the wall, it's futile. >> reporter: there's no sign of compromise no guidance on what to do next >> we're waiting on instructions from the white house. >> reporter: last word from president trump. >> i am proud to shut down the government for border security. >> reporter: a partial shut down would affect more than a dozen government agencies. housing, transportation, justice, the state department, homeland security. leaving 400,000 working without pay, and nearly that many could see their checks delayed but here's the thing, some things will continue critical services, air traffic control, you can fly, you'll get your mail. as you said, though, you might want to order soon but paychecks, for example, for social security will continue to roll out but there are a lot of government services that may end up getting put on hold until

january, brian >> 90 hours to go. we'll see you every step of the way. thank you very much. it has been a long december for investors, and on deck a worldwide exchange exclusive, four eye popping statistics that will make you the smartest person in the office today. the verdict is in on what may be the dumbest holiday turnovers in america and hopefully will mark the end of peak outrage in the social media era. stick around

a december to forget one of the worst starts to decembers going back to the great depression. crude oil falling today. wti, back below $49 a barrel right now. and some food for thought. olive garden parent darden is about to report results. we'll get a top analyst take on what to expect from the consumer as worldwide exchange rolls on right now. ♪ ♪ welcome back, and good tuesday morning, and thank you for being with us here on cnbc i'm brian sullivan hope you're having a great start to your day. your executive recap, all the news you need to know in six seconds. >> here's what's leading cnbc.com right now johnson & johnson announcing a

$5 billion share buyback, after it took hits that j and n knew for decades there was asbestos in its baby powder ceo denies those allegations in an interview with jim cramer on mad money. cbs announcing former ceoless moonves is not entitled to his $120 million severance package he was ousted from the media giant back in september following allegations of sexual misconduct and harassment. at the time, cbs said it set the severance aside from moonves but warned he wouldn't get the money if the board determined it had cause to fire him. and chinese president xi jinping focussed on china staying the course, adding that no one is in a position to dictate to the chinese people what should or should not be done the speech comes just a few weeks after the u.s. and china called a 90-day trade truce. >> kate rogers, thank you very much, and let's get a check on the this morning's headlines

outside the world of money and business, including a pearl of a story. nbc's frances rivera with that >> your headlines this morning, we've got a former trump national weather service michael flynn will be sentenced today after lying about his contacts about russia's ambassadored to u.s. this morning, federal health officials, including the health and human services secretary and the u.s. surgeon general will hold a news conference to talk about a study on teens and vaping it finds 1.3 million more teens vaped this year than last year and the percentage of high school seniors who say they vaped in the past 30 days has nearly doubled it has prompted the fda to consider cracking down and talk about a lucky find here in new york city. a new jersey man was eating at grand central oyster bar in manhattan when he found a pearl in his oyster pan roast. at first he thought it was a chipped tooth. the head chef says it's only happened twice at the oyster bar

and lucky for the customer, he gets to keep it. that place is kind of iconic anyway, but even more so, brian, if you're able to take a pearl home and not chip your tooth. >> it really is the oyster bar it lives up to its name. that is fantastic. thank you very much. here's how your money and investments look as we are halfway through the 5:00 a.m. hour in new york stock futures are not in the red. they are up 164 points right now. i get it, we fell 507 yesterday, we lost hundreds last week, we're down 7 1/2% this the month of december on the dow so that's not exactly a lot of relief, however, the selling, at least right now, doesn't look like it's going to follow through. in the bond market, we're seeing continued buyers come into bonds, ten-year yield at 2.83% a tough go in asia overnight, pla particularly for gentlemjapan, g lie and hong kong continue to

fall different story, france, germany up, the italian market has been the weak link. that's actually higher today by about a half percent right now you have to focus on the price of oil crude oil right now, down 3% to $48.34 per barrel. ouch bitcoin, by the way, if you care about that, at 34.53 you know it has been a long december for stocks but have you really paid attention to just how tough it has been. well, we've got four big stock stats courtesy of the worldwide exchange team. in december, four dow names are down more than 10%, 10% of the s&p 500, 50 stocks down more than 15% only 3% of the s&p 500, a lowly 15 equities are higher and 30 small caps in the s&p small caps 600 are down 25% or more in

december they have lost a quarter of their value. let's talk about the macro markets, oil, joining us is shawn johnson, a man who helped run a couple hundred billion at state street for years. >> 2.1 trillion. >> i really undercut you there. >> that's anterioll right. >> we'll start with oil. you put out a great piece to your clients showing the price of oil's decline, and we know the energy stocks, the wading of energy stocks in the overall market has come down, 6 or 7%. it's still relevant. how much do you focus on the price of oil from an equity perspective. >> mostly from its impact ones sector of oil but also on employment it was a big driver in the employment for the last decade and so it's very important to look at that relative to what the feds thinking as well.

>> it's also an inflationary story or deflation story do you think the collapse of oil and maybe the collapse in the price of equities will change the fed's decision tomorrow? >> i hope not. you know, i hope they stay the course and raise remember the feds goal is really price stability and employment the stock market in and of itself isn't a direct requirement so i'm hoping they continue to raise tomorrow. >> why do you think they need to raise, shawn >> we have had free money too long it's time to wean ourselves of that. >> even if we have to go through this kind of pain. >> i do believe that this is exactly what we're expecting last year when i spoke to clocl, i said we'll go through revaluation. >> is it a withdrawal? >> it's a little bit of a withdrawal. >> this is the night sweats. >> there you go. >> how long is it going to last? >> i hope they get us to about 3% at the fed funds next year,

and then i think it will be more all clear after that. >> the stock market pain, i get it t it's been a great run for years. you don't want to make too much of it. when you see the stats that we just had, when there are four dow components, the blue ships that have lost 10% in a few days that's eye opening. >> look at what they have done over the last ten years. you had also the valuation of the s&p 500 got almost to 23 times trailing earnings. the hundred-year average is about 15 1/2 times trailing earnings >> if you're a 50-year-old viewer, you're not investing for tomorrow or next week. you're likely investing for 10 to 15 to 20 years out, your kids' college, make the argument to stay in stocks, though, now >> i think it's probably in some ways a lower risk than bonds at the current valuation levels so we'll probably see bond prices at the ten-year rise to about 390 maybe next year.

you really want to stay in equities because you have the opportunity for higher yields. >> even if the dividend is lower on the ten-year. >> do you think anyone wants to own something that's only going to yield 3% for the next ten years. >> they look like it lately. >> that's not wring you want to be -- where i think you want to be i think you want to own equity exposure. >> how much? what's a good balance? >> it depends where in the equity market. i'm starting to like more the financials as they have come down so far. they look more appealing the question is whether the fed decides to lean on the long end of the bond mark if they raise the short end, they may have to accelerate the reduction in their balance sheet to drive younger yields higher. >> could have added a stat at the top of the show, financials, that are in bear markets, down

20% from recent highs. shawn johnson, it's a pleasure to have you onset. don't make it another two years. we know where you are up in boston. >> all right your other big money stories, oracle, revenue was flat company beat forecast. they see a strong third quarter due to continued growth in the cloud business that stock reacting in the premarket up 6%. shares of boeing, dow component, high this morning. company hiking its quarterly dividend by 20%. it's also increasing its buy back to 20 billion from 18 billion. boeing up 2% right now and t-mobile and sprint have won approval from u.s. national security officials for their deal that deal still needs the green light from both the fcc and the doj, t-mobile does expect those approvals will come likely in the first half of 2019. coming up here on worldwide exchange, some stocks to chew on one of the biggest names until the restaurant industry set to report its numbers today

what you need to have on your radar when those numbers hit the tape. >> and a market bright spot. stocks certainly feeling the pain recently. we'll bring you a little optimism amid big swings it is your morng rnibi trust me, you want to hear it if you own equities stick around

welcome back, and good morning. dow futures up about 150 points right now. everything is fine let's find out what else you're going to be talking about today.

it is time for this morning's top trending stories kate rogers back with those, and kate, what are we, all of us, going to be talking about today? >> brian, this is a good one i know yesterday we played n'sync christmas music and you were not the biggest fan. >> i'm still hurting. >> check out this new holiday hit. >> that is little jon, and the cool aid man teaming up for a brand new christmas song, called all i really want for christmas, and the internet is going wild over it. the duo makes sense. lil jon's catch phrase is yeah while the kool-aid man is oh, yeah >> can we hear a little bit of it >> catchy. . >> you like it better than n'sync. >> i like a cat walking across a xylophone. one area commuter is getting

his christmas wish and i agree with this. last week we told you about the sheer outrage over the nonsymmetrical holiday decorations at the holland tunnel one commuter started a petition to get it fixed. it will move the tree over the a in holland, rather than over the n where it had been for decades. >> this is like, listen, i'm as ocd as the next guy. i'm a neat freak >> i get it. >> this was an eyesore, i think. >> only because they misspelled tunnel this is like peak outrage. hopefully the peak of social media outrage. >> you know, they moved one of the wreaths to one of the path stations so i said that's great, and now if we could fix the path that would make me happy. >> next year they won't put up decorations because they don't want the hassle. >> i think it looks better fixed. >> and a pop culture clash that spans generations, former fresh

prince of bell air star is suing the makers of the popular video game fortnite. the conflict is over the famous carlson dance that he of course made iconic and famous in the 90s sitcom fortnite allows users to purchase that dance for avatars to win >> can you trademark a dance, i don't know the answer to this question. >> that is his dance. >> can you have a dance. >> like the dougie, can someone own that. >> kate rogers, thank you very much stick around, we're going to talk about your beat darden set to report their numbers before the bell. like the market, this stock has suffered lately. down nearly 13% in just three months can darden make its turn around with the quarterly numbers let's find out, steven anderson, senior restaurant and consumer analyst at the maxim group normally we don't get into individual stock stories i think this is important because there's been all this fear of a consumer slow down,

restaurants kind of the front lines of that. what are you expecting from darden >> we're expecting earnings of $0.95 per share, $0.04 of the current consensus. beating consensus nearly every quarter. this will continue to be the case today what we're seeing from the consumer is i think we're not seeing the fear just yet if you look at some of the ma crow indicators, the -- macro indicators, real wages, still in quite positive territory, and that should argue well for the consumer, at least for the next three to six months and i think with some. of the decline we have seen across the restaurant universe, there are some bargains that are apparent as we see it. >> steven, i'm curious, this is kate rogers here, i know there was a lot of excitement last quarter about the momentum

around their back-to-basics offerings. millennials are a challenge, when it comes to casual dining do you think darden is getting that right in the way maybe an apple bee's is in bringing in a younger consumer. >> what we're looking at, actually what apple bee's is doing now is what darden and particularly olive garden, which is 51% of total sales did about three years back is focussing on core, every day menu value, and on top to haof that is a layer f premise sales, which now accounts for 13% of olive garden sales, so they're meeting the consumer where they are, and that's what millennials really want today. >> there is a seasons 52 that's their upscale concept near my house. at 5:30 on a monday, it's packed maybe it's just a one off, i don't know how it's doing, but the thing seems crowded all the time and if you walk in, you think the economy is rockingment a lot of worries about the -- rocking. a lot of worries about the

consumer anything from geographic properties or concepts that indicates the u.s. economy is headed toward a recession or major slow down. >> not at this time. we touched on what season 52 is part of a larger upscale customer through the higher end restaurant group which includes seasons 52, capital grill, eddie v's, that's 20% of the sales we expect a beat this quarter. the one next thing we might be concerned about in the margins with the recent stock market volatility, how it will affect fine dining. we'll see what happens >> those all you can eat pasta bowls are paying off kate rogers, thank you so much appreciate it. why this market is a lot like the new england patriots. we made that tease specifically for your next guest, boston's own matt maley are you searching for a reason

to be optimistic, your morning rbi may just do that it's random but interesting and hopefully profitable stick around

rch count down on is on, fed kicks off a meeting. the rate decision is expected tomorrow they are expected to raise rates but the language is going to be all important. let's now bring in one of our favorite guests, matt maley, managing director and equity strategist at miller tae beck, a -- tabect the new england patriots and this stock market seem similar the doubters are out in force, and they are making some uncharacteristic mistakes, however, the patriots have always surprised to the up side. do you think this market like

your beloved pats will eventually come through and rally or is it truly the end of an era >> i tell you, you're absolutely right, the pats, especially that loss to the miami dolphins in the last second was a tough one. the only worse loss was virginia tech when they lost to appalachian state. we won't go into that. to answer your question, absolutely, i have been negative on the market. right through pretty much most of the decline here. i think we're setting up for a pop. i'm also concerned about what's going to happen next year. i think we could see a lower low for a variety of different reasons. however, i think we're setting up for a sharp rally the fed is going to be a catalyst for that. and i think it's going to begin. whether the lows are reached yesterday. today at some point, it's going to rally, 68%. even though we haven't had the huge washout, we're kind of seeing the semi extremes in sentiment and oversold

conditions. >> you said the fed could be the catalyst, do you expect a rate hike tomorrow, number one? >> yes, i do it's kind of funny, we're starting to hear more and more about this dovish rate hike. it's well telegraphed and the fed, you know, if they were going to change on that, i think they would have telegraphed it in advance now, the thing is, though, is that even though people are talking about maybe dovish rate hike, not raising rates next year as many times or even talking about that are qt program and how much they are going to shrink their balance sheet. the point is, even though people are talking about, it is not priced in, and obviously what we saw yesterday. i think that it's not priced in and that's going to be something that could give the market a sharp bounce the market does tend to rally around that. sorry about that >> it was old dominion, not

appalachian state. >> i got your point, well played are we starting to realize how important the fed's balance sheet reduction is jeff gundlach said maybe some of the gains in the equity market was almost entirely tied to the federal reserve easy money program and now that the balance sheet is being delevered, we're seeing that exact same amount of money be shrunk off? >> i definitely agree with that. i mean, the stock market had gotten well ahead of the fundamentals, and all you have to do is look at earnings growth from 2011 to 2016. it averaged for the s&p 500, it only averaged about 3% per year and the stock market almost doubled over that time that wouldn't justify that kind of rise. i think it was because of the liquidity that was provided into the markets through lower interest rates and as you mentioned, the huge, huge mas i massive rise in its balance sheet. interest rates are being normalized back up, that means that asset prices, including

stocks have to be normalized back down. even though i'm looking for a nice sharp rally of 6 to 8% going into the end of the year, i think that's a good opportunity to sell. and like jeff gundlach said yesterday, we will see lower lows next year. >> you're probably coming into the studio, i get it, we had sven henrich from london, like you, in the short-term, he believes this market could pop what are you seeing that suggests that 6 to 8% end of year rally is it all technicals >> pretty much to be honest with you. you know, the aaii report came out last week and it was at the lowest level since 2013. we're also seeing, you saw the put car ratio got to 1.5 that's usually a level that signals a short-term gain. we saw a rise in the vics, it's still not, like to see it above 40 but you had breadth and the s&p

500, the advanced decline was 12 to 1 negative, not the huge extremes that we see at the bottom of the market but usually the kind that you see at a short-term bottom, and it's exactly what we saw, it's interesting, though the volume wasn't huge, it was big for a monday, and the other only day we have had volume that big, october 29th, the beginning of an 8% rally that we saw the beginning of november. >> leaving us with an optimistic note even if it's just the short-term, matt maley, thank you very much. along those lines, it's time for tuesday rbi, and by the way, speaking of what matt was just talking about issue we have got a -- we have got a stat for you, check this out recent data shows 46 billion has been pulled from stock mutual funds and etfs as of last week, .44% of total market assets it's a big number. according to seaport, the other seven times we have seen that amount of money come out in december, the markets have rallied.

in other words, maybe that draw down is a bullish sign, a reason w tus optimistic dofureare up, worldwide exchange is out. "squawk box" is next have a great day ♪ ♪ what if we could turn trash into money? plastic bank is doing just that, by exchanging plastic for digital credits redeemable for everything from food to education... powered by ibm blockchain. when you understand the potential of new technology, you can put smart to work.

good morning, the dow is on pace for its worst december loss in decades, in fact, going back to a time in this country we don't even want to think about now down more than 7% this month, but the fed meeting that starts today could be a big catalyst and we'll get you ready for tomorrow's announcement, and then what they say afterwards, right. johnson & johnson in damage control mode we'll show you what the ceo said about asbestos claims last night with jim on mad money. >> and ousted cbs ceoless moonves will not be getting a

$120 million severance package got to tighten the belt. he's only made like 700 million previously we'll tell you what the investigation revealed about the company's culture. it is tuesday, december 18th, 2018, and "squawk box" begins right now. mpl live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box. >> good morning, everybody, welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick, along with joe. we had an inauspicious day, one showed us having the worst december since the great depression however, they did pair the losses at the close, and that was no longer the case we are merely talking