it's 5:00 a.m. in philly here's your top five at five was it a fed flop or blind bulls to blame what caused yesterday's big selloff. we dig in. media santa surprise, break out your rally cap, we may be headed higher. a man who called the downturn changing his tune. the senate making a big move joef nig overnight to avert a government shut down. why america's biggest beer maker may get into pot. and okay google, what child star can you make sure is not home alone it is thursday, december 20th.

"worldwide exchange" begins right now. maybe that music is a clue to the last five at five. good morning, good afternoon, or good evening, and welcome from wherever in the world you may be watching i'm brian sullivan and we kick things off with breaking news in oil. a few moments ago, reuters coming out with a new report that says that saudi arabia plans to cut oil production by about 322,000 barrels per day beginning in january now, also opec secretary general mohammed barkindo said to reach the proposed cut of 1.2 billion barrels a day, that the effective reduction for member countries will be 3% why does that matter it's higher than the initially discussed 2 1/2%, and what we can glean from this is the way opec talks is that maybe opec was pumping more oil than we thought because to get to 1.2,

they're going to have to do a bigger percentage cut than we initially thought. it's not helping the oil markets, in fact, look at that, wti crude down 3%. brent down nearly 3% mid-50s, mid-40s here. that news coming out, getting more clarity on what saudi arabia wants to do but it is not impacting oil in a positive way right now. now to that other market of course, that is stocks, and after yesterday's incredible fed led 730 point swing for stocks, dow futures are indicating we could be down once again today, not a lot. down 80 points right now the feds spooking stocks with a more aggressive rate call. some investors hoping the central bank may be more direct in addressing recent market volatility, and signs of cracking or slowing in the american economy that brought more buyers into bonds bonds got a bid, the ten-year yield coming down once again

wasn't it like three months ago, four months ago we were talking about 3%, and 3.25%, and how high could this market absorb interest rates -year-old on a ten year, 7.6%. if you don't like the weather, wait a minute. the bank of japan leaving rates unchanged. market did not like that they want to see some stimulus in japan the nikkei which had a very rough couple of months down nearly 3% once again you can see red on the screen in asia the market, as you know, wild swings after the fed stuck to its script and raised rates for a final time this year but the selling then really picked up as fed chair jey powell explained his decision. >> three more rate increases in 2019 we have brought that down a bit and think it is more likely the

economy will grow in a way that will call for two interest rate increases over the course of next year. the runoff of the balance sheet has been smooth and has served its purpose and i don't see us change th changing that. from this point forward we're going to be letting the data speak to us and inform the outlook. political considerations have played no role whatsoever in our discussions or decisions about monetary policy. nothing will deter us from doing what we think is the right thing to do. there's, you know, a mood of concern or it's a mood of angst about growth going forward, if i could capture it in one thought. >> it is one thing to dislike what the fed had to say. it is another thing all together to send the dow on a 730 point slide in less than two hours the question is this, was it a massive overreaction or was it the right move by the markets. michael purvis, chief global strategist, by the way, good

morning. great to see you jey powell, no one doubts his intellect or credibility in his delivery is he his own worst enemy. >> when he's in front of a structured statement, he's fine, i think. what happened a little bit yesterday, and what happened on october 3rd was when you see him in a more sort of off stage, if you will, condition where he's just in a q and a mode, and seems to be answering a question more off the cuff, it seems like he almost, you know, they sort of hawk, i don't know whether hawks have teeth, but the hawk teeth start really start showing, and people wonder, you know, wow is this guy really just going to, you know, hike us into a recession, and he's so determined to normalize policy. >> or bad communication skills. >> yeah. but he doesn't necessarily have a nuance

i think there's a sort of, you can sense there's a rigidity in his thinking, and there's a lack of nuance that some of his predecessors maybe had more of there. you know, whether it's bad communication, i think it's a little bit, you know, it depends on your viewpoint there. >> did the market overreact, 730 point drop, michael in under two hours. >> look, what's changed in not the market but in the economic data since september, not a lot. right. i mean, data has held up pretty well, and he gave us a fair amount, he gaive us lower dots, lower narrative on inflation there was a lot in there if you were expecting a dovish response i think as many people have commented, the elephant in the room is the balance sheet, and is global liquidity going into retraction, and is powell going to do anything, you know, would he push pause on the balance sheet, and arguably, i think if

he articulated a softer approach on the balance sheet but a firmer approach on rates it actually may be much more constructive for equity prices. >> yeah, and what michael is talking about, it's early out there folks, but remember there's two sides to the fed story right now. it's kind of like an nba team. you've got two stars that kind of maybe have some nagging injuries, and the team goes on a losing streak and you can blame it on one star, which would be rates but you've got this other star which is the balance sheet, which is also banged up. you actually think that, the balance sheet side, right, the second tier side is a bigger problem. >> the second tier star has been in the background, looming in the background, no one talks about the balance sheet. the fed didn't. >> we do a little bit. it's wonky, weird, hard to talk about. >> but sort of zoom out for a second the fed has been doing minus 50 a month, the bank of japan, more than a positive 50

they offset each other the ecb is going to 0 a month. they don't seem to be going into qc mode. that balance sheet that has expanded from a couple trillion seven or eight years ago to north of 18 trillion, was part of the global liquidity discussion, and really did help expa expand on the s&p, 12 to 19 in that rally, if that is going to contraction, i think that's going to be more disruptive for risk assets than whether we get one, two or three hikes. >> you have your 2019 outlook coming out we don't want to give too much away we'll get you back early in the new year give us a tease. >> the tease is the cycle is, we are in the fifth or 6th inning of this cycle. it's an unexciting cycle it's lower nominal gdp acceleration but extended and risk assets will perform better in that, assuming that the trade issues come in, and are resolved

in a constructive way the next few months. >> michael purvis. have a great day, great holiday, great new year, we'll see you in early 2019 thank you rchlt happeni. happening right now, russian president vladimir putin speaking in moscow this is his annual year-end news conference in the past, he has answered questions from the media for more than four hours now, it may not be a surprise the event lasts that long because we are told there are more than 1,700 journalists in that room live in moscow, obviously we are monitoring this he makes any major headlines whether it's economic, geopolitical, perhaps on oil, we will bring them to you as they occur. we are just getting started here on a very busy thursday worldwide exchange on deck, is there a santa surprise finally in store? a man who said in january it could be a tough year for stocks changing his tune, now getting positive, we're going to find out why. this bud's for you

striking a multibillion dollar deal for cannabis drinks the full details on worldwide exchange returns

welcome back, 5:12 on the east coast dow futures are down, but they are down less than they were we had a 735 point round trip yesterday. the market did not like it

so i guess down 70 right now, not the worst thing in the world. you have some breaking news a few moments ago on oil the opec coming out and basically saying that they're going to reduce their output by 3% remember it was 2.5% before, so opec trying to get a little more aggressive in front of this oil slide. it's not happening despite those headlines, reuters, ten minutes ago, crude oil down 3%, to 46.50, gas prices, i guess, there's an up side should stay low topping your corporate headlines, one beer giant, the biggest of the giants is making a big bet on cannabis. frank colin is here now with more >> the parent of anheuser-busch is teaming up with one of the fastest growing canadian companies, tilray labs, nonalcoholic beverages,

containing thc, and cbd, which is being touted as a treatment for a wide range of conditions the partnership is limited to canada where recreational marijuana is legal ab inbev, we intend to develop a deeper understanding of nonalcoholic beverages. tilray continues to pioneer the development of a professional transparent and well regulated cannabis industry. this deal now means all four of the largest u.s. brewers have direct exposure to the cannabis industry, the most notable, constellation brands which makes corona investing $4.2 billion earlier this year. tilray spiking 14%, as you can see right here, ab inbev is down

less than 1% in europe. >> i know this is going to be widely overused. given that we are the first show, we claimed it. we got it. >> we own that >> anybody else that does it, they are koecopying us. >> it's more clever at 5:00 a.m. >> it perfectly is frank, thank you, we'll see you in a few minutes. altria buying 35% of juul labs the e-cigarette maker juul would be valued at $38 billion double the valuation the company fetched in july. if you have teenagers, you know, this have become the industry leader in america with reported more than 75% of that market companies have been investing in e-cigarette makers as smoking rates decline but vaping rates taking off one prominent doctor calling it a nationwide epidemic recently. let us go back to the stock market and talk the technical side because of the big move

wednesday, your next guest says a bottom may be developing, and you may want to add more stocks to your portfolio. craig johnson joining us to talk about his call, the chief technician, also the single hardest working man in financial television because he joins us live from san francisco, which means you either stayed awake or you're just not sleeping tonight, craig which one is it? >> we just keep rolling, right from one day into the next, and keep working as hard as we can. >> you're doing a great job, buddy. we appreciate it, because back in january, you gave us and you brought us some warning signs, the hop, the pop and the drop. we've gotten those we've gotten the drop. you have nailed it, my friend, and now you want to come on because you're changing your tune and saying your clients at piper need to up their equity allocation what are you seeing that makes you say that >> i think a great phrase, i got up this morning from some of the hard working guys in london. we have moved from an environment from fomo, fear of

missing out, to jomo, the joy of missing out as the market has come in the last several months. what we are seeing and what we wrote up in our report just yesterday was simply this, is that we think with our indicators the way they are very very washed out, 100 degree opposite of what we were seeing back in january of this year they are at levels that we have only seen several times going back into the 1960s and we're at these extreme washout levels and this is when you want to start leaning into the market, and you want to start increasing your equity exposure. to that point, we raised your equity exposure from 85% to 90%, and we were buying stocks, we were buying wicks, apple and also sivv bank we like stocks in here we think now is when we want to start waving into this market. we want to be greedy when people are being fearful. clearly i'm not hearing any positive sentiment from people

at this point in time. i'm hearing the negatives, a 180 degree opposite from what we have seen. >> and two weeks ago, we brought data points or two weeks ago this happened where it's 46 billion and reported pulled out of u.s. equity mutual funds and etfs, .44% of the market assets. sound like a tiny sliver but it was actually the most in december ever and that when you see these kind of numbers, it ultimately is a positive sign, so craig, along with that line, are you thinking that we get a short-term spike or is this a real longer term shift back upward >> well, i think at this point in time, we laid out our 2019 outlook, just a couple of weeks ago, and we believe that this is going to be a year where this bull market is going to be corralled. it's going to be corralled in a range of 2,500 on the lower end and we're there now. i think we're at that tactical entry point and the upper end of the range is about 2,900 this is a period where perhaps

for the next several quarters, we're going to be along this market, and we're going to have to trade them in 2019. at piper jaffray, we can help investors with that. this is something that's going to last a couple months and maybe a couple quarters. we're going to have to trade them it's not about a passive strategy. >> i like it you brought some names you referenced them. i'm going to reiterate three are smaller names, one is a rather up and coming phone company apparently called apple. it is 59, you're establishing a position there, svb financial, which is sivb wicks, but apple 2% position in apple, which actually, again, sound small, but it's not what specifically are you seeing in apple that makes you more bullish right now, craig >> what we have been seeing in apple is there's a big area of support around 150, $160 that's where i think this is

going to find footing. while there's a lot of negative news, big area of support on the charts and we're also seeing the stock getting fairly oversold at this point in time so again, this is where i come back to the analogy. not only for the whole market but apple. this is where you have pushed the stocks low enough at this point in time, you're going to get a spring back, and when we get the spring back, we want to be leaning into this now big areas of support emerging. >> craig johnson, piper jaffray, 2:00 in the morning in san francisco, so either i'm going to let you, i don't know, go have a cocktail now or wait two hours for the great coffee shop across the street from our office opens up. either way, craig, we appreciate it good stuff, have a great christmas. we'll see you soon. >> thank you rch all right. still ahead, shut down averted the senate making a big move to keep the government open did they kick the can ultimately further down constitution avenue we are live in washington, and later, the wet bandits remember them. don't have a thing on google

yeah there's a marketing move that's got a lot of people talking this morning. morning. it involves that guy the world is alive as you can see, this time of the year is so much more macsulay culkin. (morgan vo) those who give their best, deserve the best. get up to a $1,250 credit on select models now during the season of audi sales event. ♪

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it's the perfect holiday upgrade. i know what i'm asking santa for this year. you still write letters to santa? no. please. i send him emails. can i get his email address? oh... i don't feel comfortable sharing it. get the iphone 10 s and our unlimited plan with your choice of the best in tv, movies, or music. more for your thing. that's our thing. welcome back good thursday morning. following a developing story out of washington. there's our count down to shut down clock, but we might need to shut that off for a minute because the senate passing a short-term spending bill that could avert a government shut

down it's not a done deal yet it still needs to be approved by the house and one donald j. trump who's president. let's bring in tony fratto he lives in d.c. i don't know, maybe he's rooting for the shut down so traffic gets easier. tony, do you think we will avert a shut down? >> i think we will divert a shut down, brian. we're going to divert it to february where we're probably going to be right back at this again. i think we should probably expect that the house probably will pass this bill today. i think that was the reason why the white house had to back down there were not votes to back his funding for the wall, but there are votes to get this basic deal, this continuing resolution done to take us into february 8th. but boy, it's going to be a volatile first quarter we're going to have this, you know, another shut down looming early in february. we're going to have the count

down to the close of the trade talks with the chinese and see where that goes. we have the debt ceiling coming up it's going to be an interesting, february, march period. >> the debt ceiling, this is what i like about you, tony, you always go right to the point the debt ceiling is what caused the 2013 shut down that caused the stock market to go haywire it wasn't the shut down. it was the fact they were shutting down over effectively, a debt crisis. i know it's two months away, but that's the blink of an eye in d.c. terms are we going to have another debt ceiling crisis? >> it's going to be tight because we're going to want to see whether the, you know, in this case, whether the white house is going to be pushing for a clean debt ceiling increase. i think they probably will that's where mnuchin has been in the past he set the administration on this course. >> what does that mean, d.c. speak, clean the debt ceiling. >> in the past, either party, depending on who's in the white house would try to negotiate for

some kinds of concessions in order for their part to put up the votes for a debt ceiling increase and there was a lot of concern that republicans were going to ask for lots of things last time. the mnuchin said the administration is in favor of a clean debt ceiling increase which made a lot of people happy and the freedom caucus, far right republicans stand down in that fight it's not clear that's going to happen again with the house controlled by democrats this time, and where democrats are going to have to put up a big majority of the votes for the debt ceiling, whether they're going to want to negotiate with the white house. so it will be fascinating and these things are going to come together >> we're going to feel good going into 2019 if we don't have a government shut down okay, maybe things are solved, your point, it sound like, tony, once again, they are not solved. nothing is solved. in fact, january and february could be more volatile from a political perspective, and by the way, the new capital of wall

street is where you are, washington, which means maybe we could see continued volatility in the equity markets because of the d.c. function. am i hearing you right >> that's what i would expect and with some of the hints we got if tfrom the fed chairman a contributing a bit to that as well there is a lot of uncertainty for the first time in a long time, looking forward, you know, six months to a year there's more uncertainty from a policy standpoint, from an economic standpoint and from a market standpoint than we've had in long time. we've kind of gotten used to slow but continued growth, somewhat steady policy situation, and the markets, you know, pretty much looking at a one-way bet on where equities are going, and we're not in that situation anymore. >> tony fratto merry christmas, thank you for joining us we'll see you soon >> thank you. >> great insight from tony on deck. the fed fallout is jay powell his own worst enemy at

the fed. steve liesman is going to join us on worldwide exchange dow futures coming back a bit, and we'll tell you what some idiot just did in the u.k. that's causing thousands of raed, hard working people to be stnd at an airport stick around jobs that don't exist yet. the engine management systems coordinate with autonomous vehicles. financial data, so now we can predict the future. our new flexible propeller design. by collaborating with public schools on a program called p-tech, ibm is helping students build the skills they'll need for tomorrow. revolutionizing. aerospace industry. it's an entirely sustainable approach. any questions? when you rethink education, everyone can put smart to work.

the fed fallout stocks coming back a little bit still until the red across the globe after yesterday's rate hike, and the statement, jay powell, his own worst enemy at

the fed. are we learning he's a little more hawkish than we thought we are digging ahead. a developing story at tesla. catches fire and reignites hours later. full details on this breaking story. and oil tumbling to new lows of the year as opec makes some moves. it's not helping we'll tell you what's driving oil lower as worldwide exchange rolls on ♪ baby when they look up at the sky, we'll be shooting stars just passing by ♪ welcome back, good thursday morning, 5:31 on the east coast. hope you're going a great start to your day. i'm brian sullivan, let's kick off the second half of the show, all the news you need to know in 60 seconds, frank holland is back >> here's what's leading cnbc.com, ab inbev is in a joint

venture, tilray shares are up 15%. shares of noo shares, an s.e.c. filing shows carl icahn upped his stake in the company, up from 8.3% in april. newell agreed to add more board members, including his son a tesla that caught fire earlier this week reignited hours later a tow yard no injuries are reported related to the incidents it's not clear what caused the car to burst into flames a tesla spokesperson said they are currently investigating that matter broo brian, back over to you. >> tesla stock not moving now, but never know as the morning goes on. thank you very much. let's get a check on the morning's top stories outside of the world of money and business. yes, there are those stairs.

francis ri veri fran rivera. republican senators lindsey graham and tom cotton have sent a letter asking the white house to reconsider a plan to withdraw troops from syria after president trump declared victory over isis. the letter says quote we believe such an action at this time is premature and costly mistake. a scathing report from the illinois attorney general accusing the catholic church of withholding the names of at least 500 priests and clergy members credibly accused of sexual abuse the report says the state's six diocese have done a terribly inaccurate job of investigating allegations and notifying state child welfare. you could be one of 7 million people under severe weather threats. there are several major storms that could bring flooding, hail and tornados across the country. aaa predicts 112 million travellers this holiday season brian, we send it back to you on this thursday before christmas

francis rivera, thank you very much it's already rained every day this day in new jersey. here's how your money investments look halfway through the 5:00 a.m. hour stock futures are down in the red. 41 points. they have come back by more than half this morning. after yesterday's 730 point round trip after the fed meeting, looking at a dow futures down 40, maybe doesn't look so bad comparatively. the bond market as we see stocks sell off this month, people are going into bonds, they have to put their money somewhere, and treasuries have gotten a lot of action they have been bought, and the yield has come down. remember everybody was talking about where we end the year at 3, 3 1/2, once again, we're going to end the year lower than almost everybody thought we would. we are seeing a selloff globally, asia, japan cannot get out of its own way that market falling nearly 3%, and as we referenced, oil prices continue to drop right now in fact, down here and overseas, more than 3%

you had some headlines coming out. they were a bit wonky, saudi arabia cutting production, cutting barrels in january opec saying that the other members are going to try to cut production a little more than we thought, 3%, not 2.5 market says not enough the marginal barrel has no value. the price of crude oil down again. the good news is for all the people stranded on the roads over christmas that francis talked about, gas prices will be cheaper. your top story this morning, of course, the fed and the markets, yesterday jerome powell and company raising rates for the fourth time this year. maybe a bit more of a hawkish tone it sent the markets, i would say, steve liesman into a advertistizzy. we lost 730 points in an hour. we appreciate you joining us bright and early, steve. it's a big story and the markets really were shaken by the fed yesterday. >> i want to say, brian, where's

the bright i got the early part i'm just looking behind me i don't know where the bright is. >> it's my tie and my mood. >> let me tell you what happened markets gave the fed two points down, and what the fed did is it hiked, continued to project more rate hikes next year along with an aggressive balance sheet reduction, while many in the market said the economy can't take either of those powell's clear statement that the fed would be more data dependent, though, fell on deaf ears >> i think from this point forward we're going to be letting the data speak to us and inform the outlook and inform our understanding of what would be appropriate policy. so there's a fairly high degree of uncertainty about both the path and the ultimate destination of any further increases. >> markets wanted certainty the fed wouldn't hike, but here's what the markets wanted versus maybe what they got. one or no hikes in 2019, says

the fed continues to forecast two. that's down from three flexibility on balance sheet reduction, powell said we're going ahead with our plan to reduce by 50 billion a month or 600 this year. more concerned about the economy. instead the fed offered this line that they're monitoring financial and global developments, and some in the market had forecast the fed would remove the language, calling for further gradual rate hikings. instead it was modified to say some further gradual rate hikes. stocks and bonds wanted an unapologetically fed steve liesman, i want to bring you into this as well. and ellen, at morgan stanley i can't remember a fed meeting in recent memory that moved stocks the way this one had. is that a sign that to steve's point the market was looking for more or maybe that the feds screwed up in its premeeting communication. we're not supposed to get these

kind of moves. >> yeah, i think that just because the fed was dovish, hands down the fed was dovish, as steve pointed out, they weren't as dovish as the market had expected that's not the fed's fault the market shouldn't have been expecting the fed to promise no rate hikes or just one rate hike, and it did fall on deaf ears, some of the points that powell made. he said, again, as he did back in march, the dots are not a consensus. that's not the path that we see. what we see is in the statement. now, the statement says some further rate hikes that's over the medium term outlook. for all you know, that ends up being one a year we just don't know powell made an effort to try to insert, to stress the uncertainty around what they are going to do going forward. yes, it fell on deaf ears. i characterize this as tough love, right, the market shouldn't be pricing for disaster next year the market should be pricing for

the good times are over. we just went through the year of tax stimulus you have absorbed the delta from that we now move into the payback period, very tough comps for earnings, tough comps for margins, global growth is slowing. you have to take that into account. the market needs to reset to some new equilibrium to a world where growth is not juiced by tax stimulus. >> hey, brian. >> hey, steve. >> i think you raise an interesting point, though about communications what happened yesterday was not very far from what i expected. i think it was interesting to see the market price in one rate hike for next year when there was no way the fed was going to change its forecast and go from having forecast three for 2019 down to one. that was always too big a move, so it raises a question for me about communications, maybe i could throw this to ellen. ellen, there's two pieces of the fed's communications, one is telling folks what's going to

happen, but the other aspect and maybe the one where powell is falling short, is convincing them that that is what should happen, and i think that powell may not have made the case at least to the market when it comes to the need to reduce the balance sheet in a way that is not attuned to what's going on in the economy, and second, is the need to continue to raise rates. i don't think he has the market with him on either one of those scores. >> yeah, so i agree. you know, you had 30 minutes to adjust the q and a however you saw fit in order to drive some of these points home i'm glad you brought up balance sheet because that really was the biggest source of surprise for me >> right. >> by the way, michael purvis, the beginning of the show today said the exact same thing that it wasn't the rate hike, it was the balance sheet commentary that really moved stocks. >> right if you look at the time stamps from powell's transcript, and you look at the time the market really took that leg downward when he was speaking it's when he said the balance sheet runoff

is going smoothly. now, before that, he had said in november it was going very well, which was concerning then. and so we thought, well, for sure he'll revise that, show some more flexibility, that they'll follow financial indicators closely for signs of stress to guide them on the ultimate side. we didn't get that it's like a no questions asked, the balance sheet continues to run off. >> i had no expectation that the fed or powell were going to amend the balance sheet plan because they have been steadfast on that. i have asked both chair yellen and chairman powell, hey, are you telling me that if we start heading down that you're not going to change the balance sheet, and they have said twice now at least, i don't know, it's one of those things where powell somehow is not controlling expectations i get what you're saying and that's a different discussion as to whether or not they ought to be amending it, but the idea there was an expectation out there that they maybe suggests

to me the fed is not doing a good job of controlling expectations. >> i doubt anyone expected them to actually say now we know when the end and the end is near. just simply give a nod to the fact that you are following financial conditions closely for signs of stress that the balance sheet may cause to guide you on its ultimate size. that's not changing the plan >> are these rookie mistakes i know jay powell is a super experienced and intelligent guy but i think he's learning the hard way that you need to telegraph all of this stuff down to the word about what you are going to do. >> jay powell has tried to be somewhat of a different chairman in a couple interesting ways he's tried to communicate much more plainly to the american public than either bernanke and yellen maybe because they couldn't, they were academic economists and powell is not. the first mistake he made, which is worth pointing out, brian, is this idea we're a long way from

neutral. that was given when he was giving an interview to the wider public it was not a matter of speaking to markets at that point he was talking to the public and that was not a big deal to the public to say that but it was a huge deal to the markets, and i think when you talk about rookie m mistakes, i think he needs to start to figure out or really prioritize that he has to talk to markets first and then he can talk to the public if he doesn't have the markets with him, it's not going to work, and i'm concerned, brian, i know we have to run, i'm concerned when i follow my twitter feed and look at things being said about the fed that the president's opposition to these rate hike and the fed's rate hikes has politicized the federal reserve in a way that has gotten away from the either president or fed right now, and some of the stuff i am reading is really quite extraordinary. >> we have to go, you're right, but there's a segment coming up, we all wanted a plain spoken fed, we moaned and groaned forever, and now we got one, and we're moaning and groaning. >> pining for an economist.

>> steve liesman, we appreciate you joining us so early. >> sure. thanks. >> ellen zentner, we'll see you in the new year. be careful what you wish for is the title of that segment. still ahead, crafting an ipo, pinterest, see what we did there, reportedly looking to go public and google getting into the holiday spirit they have a new commercial out that features that guy, it's home ane u got to see it. stick around

welcome back, hope you're having a great start to your day. stock futures are not having a great start. it's not a terrible start. dow futures down 77 right now. remember, we lost 730 points i tweeted out yesterday when the fed decision came out, the fed decision came down because that's what we do in our holiday lunch. frank, you vanished. >> what? >> hold on. >> do the news. >> i just created a problem. >> the market fell 225 points in 20 seconds ended up losing 730 points so i guess down 81. not the end of the world by the way, you have been watching bitcoin, i know we're down 80% from our highs this time last year bitcoin has been walloped. this week, it's a pretty good week bitcoin has added 23% in 4 1/2

days bitcoin back above 4,000. pinterest is preparing for a possible public offering the "wall street journal" reporting the social media app could go public as early as april. it is reportedly seeking a valuation of about $12 billion pinterest has more than 250 million active users per month it's on pace up 50% from a year ago. let's find out what else you're going to be talking about today. frank holland is back with this morning's top trending stories. >> this is the second time you have gone out to eat without me. >> we go out once a year. >> dom took everybody to practice. >> when? >> i don't want to talk about. >> when did dom take everybody to breakfast i wasn't invited. >> that's the trend that's happening right now. flights out of gatwick airport. >> dom, i'm on to you. >> well, flights in and out of london's gatwick airport have been suspended for hours, and

it's not because of storms like the ones we're expecting in the u.s., it's because two drones were spotted in gatwick's airspace, so far authorities have not been able to ground the drones or even find out who's flying them. this is the second busiest airport in london. imagine jfk or laguardia being shut down here, a mess busy holiday travel season as well >> some idiot with a drone unbelievable. next story, okay, google, remind me of a classic christmas movie. google teamed up with macaulay culkin in its newest ad called home alone again the ad shows a now 38-year-old culkin reprizing his role as kevin mccallister all grown up and using google's features to celebrate the holidays and keep burglars away from the house. >> pretty cute >> how does he look? >> like a 38-year-old. >> he's not a typical 38-year-old. there's been some concern about his life >> he's had an interesting life.

>> hollywood lifestyle for sure. >> i'm glad to see him. >> a cute ad. >> i'm just glad to see him. >> frank holland, thank you very much breakfast on me. you know who we're not inviting? >> everybody else. >> and dom i'm kidding, i love you. on deck, a former strategist of bridge waeter associates and soros funds, plus your morning rbi, the most random and interesting thing of the day which has to do with a streak that fed chair jay powell likely wishes he did not have

rj welcome first time guest, not only to worldwide exchange, whitney baker worked at bridgewater associates and soros funds, now runs her own emerging market funds research is let's

welcome to whitney baker to cnbc thank you for joining us. >> thank you for having me. >> let's start with a softball did the feds screw up? >> i mean if you zoom out, this is more of the same. they have been in this tightening s tightening cycle which has slated to the largest in history in the last 35 years or so and they tend to have predictable outcomes and proceed either a gross slow down or significant market, that's probably what's going to happen here we don't look meeting to meeting or week to week, but it's part of this broader trend of tightening extraordinary that came out of the crisis. >> the theme we have heard from michael purvis and ellen zentner is we need to take the medicine. jay powell believes that, if the market gos do markets go down, they go down. we need to wean off the low rate addiction we have had. do you agree with that >> i think we have had zooming out 40 years of consistently

lowering rates and that's enabled consistently higher debts. we're at a point in the global cycle where sensitivity to rate moves is high. it's unmeasurable. this sort of idea of a neutral policy rate i think is somewhat academic in my mind, there's cause and effect, and there's been abundant liquidity and easing and that's created excess in financial markets and parts of the economy that will probably work its way out. >> we love guests that have these outlier views argentina, they have had like 13 sovereign defaults in 150 years. why is argentina attractive? >> you can look at that .1 of two ways, they have done it before so they know it's not an easy way out maybe they will do it differently this time. the other point is they tend to make the same mistakes and why don't they learn. >> that's the definition of insanity, by the way. >> it was this hopeful period of you have your first nonpronous

government of 70 years, and they make the same mistakes as all the last one argentina and turkey were the two major economies coming into this year that had big financing needs and were plugging those gaps with disproportionately dollar issues. they had no choice but to tighten their own policy, engineer immediate closings of their external imbalances, current account deficits and by doing that, and by accepting that tightening and keeping rates incredibly high, both countries have generated stability now. >> the other country you're talking about is turkey. >> it's the same dynamic. >> made people money but it's shaky lately. >> it's a similar dynamic. nine times out of ten, the balance of payment adjustments wi are the best time to buy em. and very acute deleveraging pressures. once things normalizing and you get an easing of rates you get the pricing out of the stress

and double digit returns when i think about trading em, and where the money is made, it's when you can buy these sorts of adjustments at the trough when markets, you know, and as long as policy makers accept the tightening that has to happen, you get stabilization that follows. >> i like it argentina and turkey, two outlying em bakes, whitney baker are we going to see you again. >> absolutely. >> fantastic time for this morning's rbi, how is this for random but interesting stat on jay powell, yesterday was the 7th straight fed meeting where stocks fell. a comes courtesy of our friend at bespoke also, yesterday was the worst market performance on a fed day since september of 2011. that could maybe get the attention of one donald j. trump and perhaps not bode well for chairman powell staying in power. either way, jay powell rocking the markets, certainly random and interesting.

i'm off tomorrow have a great day squo squawk box up next

good morning, fed backlash, global markets sell off after the central bank raised rates and signalled more hikes to come we'll break down the decision ahead. the senate passing a bill that would keep the government running through february, but the house and the president still need to sign off this bud's for you, america's biggest beer maker is getting into the marijuana business thursday, december 20th, 2018, and "squawk box" begins right

now. ♪ live from new york where business never sleeps. this is "squawk box. >> good morning, welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc, we're live at the nasdaq site. lee is out today, but our guest host is shark tank's kevin o'leary, bringing some wonderful to the set this morning. and a lot to talk to mr. wonderful about. >> most wonderful time of the year. >> how appropriate. >> and mr. wonderful is here >> we are going to get back to mr. wonderful and all of that in a minute, and specifically, we're going to talk a lot about the fed and the fed decision i want to show you what's going on in the markets right now. as we get set for the market day, after this big fed decision, u.s. equity futures look like they would open lower, off, we'll call it about 50, 5