one bright spot is the notion they will remain lower for longer we'll see that today >> maybe no capitulation yet >> we'll be watching for it. closing bell starts right now. welcome to the closing bell. digesting the feds recalibrating the risk of a government shutdown. we are seeing a 2 plkt decli% d. it is down 400 points. this is an all too familiar feeling. the s&p down 1.5%. the nasdaq down 1.5%

it is down even more, 1.7% >> it is very systematic selling especially if the you're down at these lows volatility going into the final week of the year is a rarity right now. obviously the close is going to matter a lot we have had this little bounce to see if anything comes of it president trump will sign the farm bill at any moment. we will bring you there live as soon as he does so he brings you this from the white house. let's hear from the white house. kevin joins us, chairman of the council of economic advisers is he disappointed they raised rates? >> i think that the fed, it's an independent agency it is to comment on how the economy is doing i think the fed made a move that markets have responded a lot to.

i have seen some confusion i think people are getting their economic models wrong. when the yield curve gets flat it has shown you the risk of recession is higher. the literature that looks at yield curves looks at a time there is no easing if we were to remove all of the easing all around the world the ten-year rate would be about 100 basis points higher. it is consistent with 3% growth we are seeing. of course it wouldn't be close to inverted. that is not useful right now as a guide to what the recession risks are next year because the end of the-year-old curve is being pushed down. >> that's fair there are a lot of other market signals that are flashing warning signs about the economy. oil prices in the last three months are down 34%. the nasdaq is down about 20% from the recent high s and p down 16% what is that telling you >> the oil price decline is clearly related to the fact that asian economies are weak and

european economy is weak last year at this time i would say we would have 3% growth and a lot of your guys said we were crazy. it looks like we will have 3% growth you're absolutely right. there are some gyrations but i think they are related in part to this global slowdown and maybe to a confusion about what it means it is effecting the end of the yield curve. >> maybe we have to make adjustments to our interpretations but clearly the markets are bracing for some g magnitude not strictly because of global weakness as well, right? you have tariffs interrupting the whole picture in terms of what we can expect downgrades of what to expect do you think we are going to

have a meaningful down shift and is that why the administration has been critical of the fed >> i mean the first part of the question, last year at this time i forecasted it won. it was based on the fact that capital spending could go up after the tax cuts if we get below the gdp estimate right now we get the 3.1 that we said i don't see why we can't adjust that given that it came in exactly as expected. the fact is that capital spending is searched a lot it slowed a little bit in the latest data but in part because the guys that produced capital goods are at capacity and having a hard time meeting the demand so i think the odds of getting a gdp growth number are very very small given the momentum we are carrying >> housing has been slowing and all of the confidence surveys

have started to show weakness. the business round table survey rolled over. there are signs of weakening if you add that to the fact that the stimulus and the tax cuts are going to wear off next year in the middle of this very tighter policy period, what does that all add up to >> don't forget all of those you're mentioning like the business round tables, capital savings were all at historic highs. i think that the idea that there's like a turn around away from growth is inconsistent with what we see in the data and as you notice everything is very strong wage growth is there incomes are growing a lot. we are seeing a very very strong christmas. we have had great sales in the fourth quarter it is consistent with that

growth all of that stuff suggests there is moemtum going forward if you go back you don't get a recession after a 3% quarter it just happens. so yes, absolutely you're right point and say that's lot of turmoil. i think some of that is related and some of it might be related to the misunderstanding about how to interpret the yield curve. >> so it is down 15% in three months because people aren't sure if it is giving them a bad signal >> no. it will be a profit signal >> there's definitely a profit signal people have been whipped into a frenzy about it being a lot higher because of this analysis. i think that, you know, if there were signs that if the jobs number was negative, if retail sales were declining, if you look at 1.6% then there would be

a lot more reason to be nervous. i think right now the fed just looked at rates because they believe like we do that the economy is strong, inflation levels are slow. it is based on the fact that they believe the economy is strong a flip from that to we will have a recession that the world is falling apart is to jump too far. >> the president wants to see the stock market go up clearly why now is he threatening the government shutdown with 24 hours to go here and not sign this senate short-term spending bill >> yeah. the president has a very small that he has had since he arrived that congress spoke like voters want him to do on border security i think he is absolutely add mat it is going to happen. i have been in washington for 30 years. it looks like he has a very very firm position. i think right now he is engaged

in ongoing negotiations to achieve his suggestions. >> i think if the government were to shut down far long periods it could have a negative impact think about all of the turmoil we have had over the years looking back on it it seems like we tend to overreact it is not something that has a long-term effect >> thank you for joining us. >> thanks for having me. >> from the white house today the president's economic advisers not sounding that different from jay powell, the federal reserve chair that talked up the economy. he said they are confident in the outlook. >> i guess you should point out he did say 2019 might not be as kind to their forecast

>> big debate on 2019. let's check in on the market with bob it was down more than 600 a few minutes ago. there are a attempts to pick bottoms. apple is down 5% it is typical the market there is a two-day fed meeting was 166 and dropped down to 155 or so. it is at 157 a lot of strange market internal numbers. a lot of people keep saying we are near a bottom. the lowest is 1.6. it is normally flat to a little more it is extreme numbers. new lows 12.

i think you have to go back a decade people are trying to call bottoms at this point. two new issues we have a potential government shutdown it would not be a big thing >> all of the uncertainty. it is a quadruple. we will have very big volume again at the close and open. we'll have an s&p. there will be a lot of churning around i don't know how much is playing in people who own the futures are going out and going to decide whether they will invest in january. that's what they are having to

decide a lot of churning. back to you. >> huge volumes already. a lot of those washout signals thank you. what seemed like a done deal has run into a serious roadblock. we have the latest >> republicans are heading for a showdown if not a shutdown over the border wall they talked about ways to fund the government and pay for the government, the directions they got were very clear. >> the president informed us that he will not sign the bill that came over from the senate last evening because of his legitimate concerns for border security what we will do is work with our members. we want to keep the government open but we also want to see an agreement. >> republicans will be meeting this afternoon on the next steps. they want to add $5 billion in funding for the border wall as well as money for disaster

relief they have to figure out how to do this with only republican votes. democrats are not going to help them nancy pelosi just tried to force a vote on a so called clean spending bill on the floor she called it a nonstarter we expect to see it play out over the next few hours and late into this evening. back over to you >> thank you very much for the update from capitol hill the justice department announcing new accused of participating to steal technology secrets we have been following this story all day in washington. >> yeah. this is the indictment that the department of justice unsealed earlier today against the two alleged chinese hackers. what the government is saying here is that it goes back to as early as2006

they were stealing from people in the high-tech and defense sec tors they said the chinese are on notice as a result of this that the united states knows what they are doing and knows who has got their fingers on the keyboard here is what he said >> china will find it difficult to pretend it is not responsible for these actions. >> despite all of the complexity of this case what they are alleging is that this was an old fashioned spear fishing attack what they were doing is sending e-mails to these coming from colleagues inside the same

company. they had attachments that looked like real attachments. >> thank you very much i'll take it it's a busy day on multiple fronts. joining our closing bell today to discuss what main street investors should be doing we have rick here and keith and rick at the cme in chicago welcome all. give us your read on today's action as we were talking with bob a lot of signals of selling activity, a little bit of a balance here where does it leave us >> the one word i think about is

relentlessly bad it is indicators that we look at there is rarely a bid that comes in we have seen that almost every day we start selling off at about 2:00 we take a sharp decline down others are looking for some sort of signal. today was paul ryan that said the president is not going to sign that bill the institutional investors number one is they are confused. we hear that the economy is great. it is that no one is willing >> they are not going to step in that >> yes >> we are not getting a bid. we will play it through. >> they told us it is about misinterpreting the yield curve

about global economic weakness is he right? >> he is trying to and the only problem is he doesn't agree with him. we saw that when he said everything is great. he was expecting him to say we are done for the moment and the next eight meetings will take it as the day it presents itself. >> it is the protection team in there works. anybody can google that and find out what that is >> trying to talk up the market. >> yes exactly. you have stocks down in the u.s.

bond yields are lower. is that a call to action for you? >> no. it's not we have to recognize that this kind of thing happens periodically in the markets. it's just the way the markets behave i'm not diminishing it at all. if you slow to 55 it feels really slow. there is still growth going ochblt you're still moving ahead. that's what's going on in the economy. yes. real estate is slowing auto sales are slowing it is still favorable. the economy is still robust. we are seeing projections going forward. over the next ten years which is what ordinary consumer is thinking with their retirement it will be a long distant memory before it really matters >> you have a good feel. what's the level of fear out there given what we have seen? >> virtually nonexistent we pulled our advisers this week we have them with 85,000 clients. we pulled them saying how many

calls are you getting? it is about 1% of our clients. virtually none of our clients are expressing any concern or worry about this it is usually the clients that are nearest to retirement which makes sense. so if you have a proper allocation, long-term timer you can ignore all of this because it will not matter to your long-term plan >> if you would maintain that wouldn't you be topping that up? >> the opportunity to rebalance your portfolio, taking advantage of the weakness that exists, if you loved your portfolio a year ago you have to be more in love with it now. prices are lower treat it as the buying opportunity it is. >> we haven't forgotten about you. give us your take and whether the outlook has changed significantly for 2019 in light of fed and shutdown and everything else getting thrown in >> well, i think on the shutdown

he nailed it it is the inviting, politicalization it isn't necessarily the event we'll have a lot of fighting going on over the next quarter or two as far as all of the rest of it i think adviser has to hit on a couple of key points everybody i talk to agrees that it is distorted but it doesn't matter it is perception perception is reality in trading. traders don't wait to see if things are different this time they see an event. they act on it and the longer others join them in that endeavor the more built into the market it gets it is an issue that has to be contended with with respect to today's action i'm a little surprised we see the yields really kind of melting up towards their hi level, high yield low price of the day. it comes at a point where the stock market is down 400 it really reenforces the message that yes, we have had big drops in treasury yields we have had flattening to the

curves it is up about 40 basis points on the year. they are below the midpoint of the year from a technical per specific ifr they are under pressure. finally, i guess the award of the biggest move today has the go to the dollar index it is down i would think that the 97.5 high close that we have been trying to take out is probably pretty secure for another three to four weeks. see if we revisit some of that buying the marketplace determines interest rates except for the very short end might be they should pay attention. it is grappling with the growth initiative >> and maybe i could follow up on with that the fed comes out and the message is we are still laning to raise rates two times next year the interest rates you're talk about mostly went down and the

dollar went down it isn't normally what you would think of the chairman could have been more realtime we have seen a lot of damage done if you looked at all of the questions watch the market i love doing that. to me one of the big triggers was automatic on the balance sheet and so many experts saying, you know, it really doesn't hurt it may hurt. we don't know and the market certainly is nervous about it. i think it is a contentious issue between traitors and fed policy rightnow.

how about the fact they said it is not a recession signal because of the distortions from qe do you buy that? >> i completely buy it perception is reality. i think from a study standpoint, a case study he is absolutely right. there is no doubt all maturities have been dramatically effected by qe, whether it is the domestic or globally is a cumulative issue but the fact is that when you see it and when we first saw it you can see how all markets started to change. we are in the kind of environment that stocks can be pushed when they are in a mode where they can be pushed all of these details really do have a big

outside effect if you look at 2017, you you know, there were issues that should have hut the market that didn't it matters and how the information gets priced in matters and that's the relationship of markets of why perception really is and should be studied more with respect to not only the balance sheet but the curve inversions and global interest rate manipulation over the last 7 to 10 years >> it is complicated stuff we are looking at a live shot from the white house we are expecting president trump to come out and sign the farm bill we'll see if he says anything about the market, economy, farmers. keith is with us oil prices are down on top of a steep slide.

>> it's something that i work on and it is largely a supply issue in some of the data that i found the problem is they have been conditioned and if oil prices start to slide we have global growth problems all over the place. i don't think it's the entire picture. it is to act which willy prove technology and lower the cost per barrel you'll see downs decline slightly but not like we would have seen five or six years ago. they are still pumping oil that is part of it >> what part of the market is

the best right now >> no question they feel more comfortable long term. >> it is a prediction of lower bond prices in 2019 >> thank you for weighing in for more let's bring in larry summers. we have a taste of how you feel. i don't think you agree with what the fed did or said yesterday. why is that? >> i don't think there was a basis in either financial stable or price stability for raising rates yesterday. we have inflation under control on some measures even declining. if anybody thought there was complacency they can't think

there is complacency over the last several weeks i didn't see the need for a rate increase i think the greater risks to the economy are turning over in slowdown rather than some kind of acceleration. >> i guess one of the questions is how quickly the fed ought to turn 180 on its outlook if they said we are not yet atneutral. >> it is in a sufficiently convincing way i think if they need a greater return on the part of the fed some times there's predictions

they will ease and they will tighten a great deal there are predictions. i think the fed needs to recognized that just like the rest of us it does know what the future will hold it needs to pro claim the state of dependence and watch the ongoing flow of kplik statistics very carefully. >> you disagree we know from having you on a lot but a lot of president trump's economic policies, would you be an investor in this market? how would you be positioned? are you in this market >> i'm not sure i'm here to give economic advice. usually it's a bad idea for people to move in and out a great deal based on some kind of

assessment the available experiences that almost nobody can time markets actively my general advice would be choose an asset allocation between stocks and bonds don't kid yourself that you can catch a falling knife. >> how much do you think the dmik outlook has changed as a result of some of these tighter financial conditions and what are you getting as it relates to the outlook? >> look. i think that you already had a lot of risks coming into 2019.

there you had an end to growing fiscal stimulus and those two thins combined with a great deal of uncertainty and domestic policy uncertainty meant that you were heading into a very uncertain and uneasy environment. now you have added a high degree of volatility and uncertainty. you add all of that up and the risks look greater than they did a few months ago >> you put money into the economy and some of it gets

spent. that of course has a little bit of the element of a sugar high because unless you keep growing the stimyulus you don't keep maintaining the high growth rate if you look the main thing that's been encouraged has been buy backs. if you look at investment succeeding forecast you don't see any. you ask them has the tax cut spurred investment and the vast majority say it has not spurred investment at their companies. we had an unfortunate use of the federal government's fiscal capacity to reward already -- mostly to reward already fortunate corporations that were

already enjoying profits >> uh-huh. >> at near record levels i don't think that was a well conceived or well designed economicpolicy >> it can often be disconnected and divorced from what's actually happening if you look at the picture of what's happening it doesn't look like it was. it looks like it was earlier in the year >> i don't think it's the job of the fed to put breaks akes on t economy. i think it's the job to be

highly vigilant with respects to price stability and with respect to financial stability the fed has a 2% inflation target it looks like for the ninth year in a row we'll fall below that moreover the fed emphasizes that it's a semimetric 2% target. inflation should be above 2% as often as it is below 2%. if a moment when we have 3.7% unemployment a moment when we are in the tenth year of economic expansion, if that's not the moment we should be above that inflation target in support of symmetry i don't know when that moment would ever come it is declining. that's why there miekt be a circumstance of situation. you thought they were becoming

frothy but surely by this week our problem wasn't that there wasn't enough froth in financial markets. >> do you have it on the kind of theoretical level? should they be shrinking this balance sheet at this point? >> i don't think at this point i think if you want to have the balance sheet to expand during recessions you can't take th position that when there's a recession we are going to expand that and when there's a boom we won't do anything to the balance sheet. i think putting it in the background on a rolloff as they have done seems to me

appropriate. i think reluctance to get in the business of month by month calibrating and making decisions about that was also a reasonable decision >> larry, thank you for joining us this afternoon. >> thank you >> always good to get your take. we have 27 minutes -- 26 minutes to go here in today's session. as we await president trump that's a live shot we are showing you. he is about to sign the farm bill in the meantime let's show you some of the biggest movers of the day in this market bob is here. let's start with you >> the important thing is we took a leg down when paul ryan said the president would not sign the spending bill and bounced off of that a little

after. united technologies sitting at 52 week lows the banks are down but not down as much. they are outperforming a market on a relative basis for two days now. it's good news but you're at 52 week lows. citi group is down seven days in a row. go goldman is flat. >> so the bottom line is there's a few market leaders and they are only considered market leaders because they are flat and not dropping dramatically. we will go back into the close

and will have a huge volume. this is an index exploration today and tomorrow >> is it to bad it can't get too much worse than short term let's get to the nasdaq. >> we have the nasdaq and russell 2000 all poised to close at new lows for the year for the past 52 weeks. the nasdaq 100 is still holding above the low of february. again, faint praise there. not that much of an out performance. among the drags are the chip sectors. it hit a new 52 week low and micron alllower.

>> let's take a listen here. [ applause ] >> thank you very much that was from the emmy's i sang green acres and receive add very nice award that night that was really great. somebody had it and i said put it on. not too much of it but put it on congratulations. it's great to be here. we have a lot of big things happening. i want to thank our great vice president mike pence for joining us terrific job he loves our farmers like i do.

>> john. thank you, john. jimmy music. i love that name should be a singer with that name kevin kester chuck conner any relation to chuck conner the great honor? he was really good randy moonie and jim hiemer. that's a great group you think this one an easy one it was not an easy one we have to take care of our farmers and ranchers and we will take care of them. not only is it a bill it's a great bill for them. we are honored by it

a leader who may have the easiest job in the united states especially around the border >>. [ applause ] >> thanks. good man >> john boseman. >> we got it there, john >> thank you, john great. >>. >> debbie is tough we competed with her she is tough and smart and does a great job. thank you very much. really good job. ralph abraham. thank you. rick allen

jody airington andy bar where is andy? did i do a good job for you? did i do a good job? you're one of the only congressional congressmen i could have -- i'll tell you, you i went to specifically congratulations. mitch was there with rand paul we were all there for you. great. good job [ applause ]% jam james comer. kevin cramer that's another one we worked hard on. senator elect very shortly proud of you, kevin. rick crawford. rodney davis rick geanforte you did a great job out there. fantastic job. neil dunn, ron estess.

bob good gladder is here with comey i think. trying to see how much he is lying today. frank lucas, roger marshal dan newhouse thank you all. great people collin peterson hi good job >> very nice >> david rouser. where is david is he around hi david congratulations. fon netical

phonetically it is very tough. austin, where is austin? thank you. thank you. glenn thompson hi glenn bruce westerman and ted yojo thank you very much. so we are here to celebrate a really tremendous victory for the american farmer. ranchers, agriculture, incredible people. by the signing of the 2018 farm bill, very important we have been working long and hard on this one we were hearing it might not be able to pass this year i didn't want to talk to pat about that so we passed it we achieved a very historic landmark it is a big additional victory the house and senate have both passed landmark and criminal justice reform and sent it to my desk forsignature. that's a big thing

[ applause ] >> and i want to thank ivanka for working on that. it was an incredible achievement. i think it will go down as one of the great moments this legislation will help thousands of former inmates and nonviolent offenders get a second chance at life but before going any further i want to address v address vital national importance every nation has not only the right but the absolute duty to protect its borders and its

citizens human trafficking and massive drug inflow must also be stopped. it is at a tremendous level. what we are doing and the incredible job being done by border security, ice, border patrol local police and the military we are stopping them in record numbers. at this moment that's debate over funding border security and the ball also called steel slats. it has to be something special to do the job. steel slats.

i have made my position very clear. it must include border security not for political purposes but for our country, for the safety of our kpluntcommunity. it is the solemn promise to protect and defend the united states of america. it is our sacred obligation. we have no choice no one endorsed this policy it was a total assault on our democracy itself illegal immigration cost our nation $275 billion a year you

hear many different numbers. you can say billions and billions but the number i hear most accurate is $275 billion a year at least. millions of jobs and thousands of innocent lives. more than 90% of heroin comes across our southern border heroin deaths have tripled since 2002 230 billion to $289 billion or nearly $5 billion a week i spoke with president xi of china and he agreed to make fentanyl another one of the big big problems i think it's probably just gone to number one. it kills 80,000 people a year in our country. he is going to make it a major crime in chien fla

if you get caught you pay a major penalty. it is called the death penalty it wasn't listed as a crime. i appreciate that. it will have a tremendous impact [ applause ] >> every day 2,000 illegal aliens try to cross our borders. they try we get most of them. it is hard without a wall. in the last two years alone ice officers arrested those convicted of 100,000 assaults, 30,000 sex crimes and 4,000 murders. that's rough stuff

ridiculously and dangerously certain people want open borders which allow potentially massive crime. our nation has spent trillions of dollars and sacrificed brave young lives defending the borders of foreign nations i'm asking congress to defend to border of our nation for a tiny fraction of the cost essential to border security is a powerful physical barrier. walls work whether we like it or not they work better than anything israel 99.9% successful. think of it. i spoke to benjamin netanyahu. he said it is 99.9 he came up i didn't ask he said 99.9% successful

we are proposed a steel slat barrier every day we deprive them the resource they need we put many innocent lives in harm's way it should be bipartisan. illegal immigration also strains public services that americans depend on and illegal immigration drives down wages for the neediest americans no one who calls themselves ls a progressive should support illegal immigration safety and security of the united states is most important of all if we don't stand strong we cease to be a nation and betray

our kplimt to the loyal citizens of our great country i look forward to signing a bill that fulfills our duty to the american people it is all about -- and i say this in any way they want to hear it it is all about america first. we have to put our country first and our people first and we have to put safety first. thank you all very much we'll be working on that and we'll see what we can do hopefully it will all come together now to the farm bill we are proudly joined today by so many members of congress, republicans, dem kraocrats that worked very very hard on this bill it was an effort of everybody. i actually believe we may be

over the coming period of time i think so i hope so. so good for the country. i want to thank all of the people here including many democrats that have worked hard on this bill they really have i probably have to deny that >> we will continue to monitor the president for you making remarks there ahead of signing this farm bill by the way, the dow is heading down again it is down more than 500 points. the president really laying out much more broadly and with more details his case for the border wall, why he needs to see the funding and why he is not going to approve the senate stopgap funding bill if they can't reach a deal then nine departments will close before the christmas holiday let's get a little more on what the president just said potentially moving the markets lower here

>> suggesting that there's not much of a plan here between today and tomorrow in terms of what happens next. the president simply saying we'll see what we can do but hopefully it will all come together a lot of people expected he would go ahead and sign a continui continuing resolution. the president laying out why he is not going to do that. it gives lawmakers until tomorrow to figure out how to pass at bill that will pass and get a presidential signature not sure what the president would accept here. is there something short of a wall he would accept

>> all right we'll see how it takes shape over the next 24 hours thank you very much. >> yes >> potential government shutdown and china trade war weighs on stocks this week how are they navigating this market great to have you with us today. all of this focus on d.c. an owl aft all of these policy fronts we are trying to figure out a chinese hacking situation that has become a legal issue what would be your approach right now and how would you be filtering this in for next year? >> i think what we just witnessed at the white house injects more uncertainty into next year.

the first step act is a very important first step good for him and those 87 senators that voted for it it is a level of uncertainty that obviously the markets don't like they are headinglower what do you think are all of the issues

we are talking with regard to the markets every single day >> well, first of all i think trade is a huge one because just as it's unclear what president trump will accept in terms of border security so i think it is also unclear what he will accept in terms of a deal with china or other trading partners and so i think people are wondering. now, it is also true that china's economy is slowing down. 6% growth is really quite poor for the chinese economy. i think ceos react to that as well as long as it's not clear what the deal is the threat continues to hang over the market's head and tariffs hurt our producers and our consumers far more than they will hurt chinese consumers. >> i know you haven't been at

hewlett pack aard. it is including from private companies. what's your sense of how big this problemis also when i was in a number of advisory roles they are working with defense department we were clearly aware that the chinese were working aggressively to hack not only government databases and government systems, infrastructure systems but also the databases of private companies. i think we have known this far long time. i don't think there's been an

adequate set of defenses more is required in terms of permissible between companies and between companies and the federal government we shouldn't be surprised that the chinese like the russians spend a great deal of time and money trying to steal our secrets in the chinese market with americans who are partnered with chinese approved companies or hacking into american systems whether those are private or government systems they are doing this as aggressively as the russians are. it isn't news. it shouldn't be a surprise and we need to really focus on bolstering at the private company level as well as federal government >> yeah. really good to get your take on this important issue thanks for joining us. >> thank you >> former ceo and former presidential nominee mike as we head to the close

>> thank you about two and a half minutes left until the close the market is sagging again into the end of the day you can see the close is lower than the high. it has been steadily remaining above 20 but today it did spike briefly above 30 and pull back a little bit. we are seeing some more signs of washed out all of these indicators they go back to either 2011 or 2015 or 2016 >> the vix the highest level since february

it is fairly extreme for this year 1,200 new lows this is 1.7 at one point it means people are really reaching for protection very rapidly. so the government shutdown would not be much. we have seen this before it is sort of another new little issue to deal with the fact that the fed is not in the friendly column is a plus for the market i think is a major sentiment problem overall. what i'm trying to figure out, remember, this is expiration >> yes >> very heavy volume we have a lot of blocks at the close. it will be the last major vent who is the marginal buyer? a lot of talk about pension fund

rebounds but hard to quantify that you can't put a number on it it may have been little bit of the bounce >> not a lot of new money being committed. thank you very much. dow is closing down 470 right now ringing the bell here. here is sara with the second hour let's take a look. the dow closing lower. 2% down 471. at one point the dow was down more than 670 points s & p 500 closing lower. nasdaq down 1.6 and the russell

2000 down 1.7. relentless selling as investors digested the federal reserve decision it spooked the market on top of these new shutdown fears it was another volatile day. bob is covering this here on the new york stock exchange. this is at the nasdaq. let's start with you >> let's take a look we were weak through the middle of the day paul ryan came out and side the president would not sign the new spending bill. it was an attempt to buy the market we have had maybe pension fund rebalancing. it helped stabilize the market laggards, eight or nine new lows on the new york stock exchange chevron and ibm and united technologies i would say about 30% of dow jones at new lows we had leaders goldman saying banks are at least not dropping as much

they are relative outperformers. that is certainly good news. johnson & johnson more stable. this is another little issue it is the two major problems we are facing along with the old issues, the tariffs and the brexit still unresolved. can't put a number on that and that's what is effecting the earnings outlook >> thank you very much the immerging outlooks someone will try to do that as well >> it was a weak dollar. >> and maybe the fed is less than we thought. we'll see. let's see what is happening at the nasdaq >> hi. it is more of the same we have seen the nasdaq and

russell 2000 all close at new lows here for the year the nasdaq just shy of the bare market territory it could not sustain any momentum at all. it is the big usual suspects there with amazon, apple and the biggest point drag we had about 1,100 new lows including a number of health care names including walgreens which posted a mixed quarter it is really more the outlook, the fact they will try to cut a billion dollars and will announce a new partnership as

more of these health care and tek nir tech firms pair up >> thank you we have stephanie here chris johnson joins us another sharp slide for stocks what's your mood >> i'm not in a very good mood we are long-term but it is deflating every single day to have the market down this week it has been some of the winners that actually they have taken down. it is is health care and some technology software in addition to some staple stocks. it is disappointing. the biggest issue for me is that the panl, they actually lowered their inflation targets. at the same time they are raising rates. those two things don't make

sense to me. i get they are close to their target it is hardly overheating it was the big issue it was the thing that was disappointing. at the end of the day i was going to talk about the lower oil prices, lower interest rates, good for the consumer, all of that but the lack of visibility is going to continue to overhang until we get some answers. >> and chris, you you know, we certainly can with the substance of the feds decision, the way it was communicated it also is certainly clear this market has been under stress for multiple places for a while right now and inclined to sell first and ask why later. how do you treat it right now? what are you seeing in the tactical set up and things like that >> you nailed it i think it was two or three weeks ago. people were filing out of the

exit in the market that is not what makes market volatile look at this we are seeing it trending higher i hate the fact that s&p pulled back 12% in february and we saw those readings of 50 and we are down 15 or 16% from the october my highs. right now there's -- to use that cheesey term the market climbs a wall of worry. it has been tipped over and we are sliding down a slope of hope we really need that shock to investors so we see that selling come into the market heavily i did get a little bit of a silver lining thinking when i saw not only staples which stephanie just mentioned but starting to get hammered down earlier this week. they are safe havens that's a sign investors are starting to pull everything out. we need more at this time.

there is too much to be holding on >> it is a little bit surprising on one hand but on the other hand it will on a relative basis it is encouraging to have the laggards at least hold in energy continues to get hammered >> that's really disappointing you need industrials to lead you need financials. you need energy. it is encouraging that financials helped but we have a long way to go >> all right let's talk a little more about oil. hitting the lowest level in more than a year of concerns continue to weigh on the commodity. >> i guess if you're going to start are the most beaten down it is maybe the most washed out is the oil sector the place to

look for that. >> right now with what's going on globally, mike, and we get the indication there is a slowdown i think the commodity traders is and you see oil that's trending lower the signs are on the wall when we look at the commodity market i don't think oil has hit that bottom >> would you be a buyer? >> i joan more of the integrated oils like chevron and those types of names so like to premier companies but

it has been painful beyond belief owner energy, for sure. i think a lot of it is supply. i think if i listen to what a couple of companies said about europe this week alone, it is really slowing it has been slowing materially i think some of the oil price issue is supply. a lot of it has to do with demand as well i think we have to find it there. i don't think it stays there far long period of time. >> slowing down has been a big theme. i wonder how much of the market action do you think has to do with global slowdown >> i think there's so much uncertainty. i think the u.s. is okay i think we'll do 2.5% gdp growth we knew it was going to run off

to a certain degree. at the same time we saw global growth i think it is slowing more in europe in familiar i think that's why the markets sold off today it was a day to hear what fed ex had to say. they said they were seeing a material slowdown. >> what do you think do you think it is u.s. related? >> it feels like the focus has become on the u.s. and all of the problems that are building for next year. the runoff and the tax cuts and a trillion dollars in corporate bounds >> it is unwinding, the idea that it was so strong that you had the tail winds that are running out. so we are catching down to that as more of the expensive ones. it seems like 2015 in that

respect where you can only resist that so long. >> it is interesting we made the point before that and they have perked up. at least klichina has stabilized i think the fund flows are so skewed it is not going to take much to have that money go overseas you have to have growth stabilizing. you can't have a continuing default. >> money is coming out and u.s. stocks are getting bashed. it is expected to be the second busiest day of the year for retailers. a new report says consumers could spend up to $26 billion on saturday retail though it has had a tough month. the sector calling nearly 14% since the beginning of september. we wonder if there's a

disconnect between the markets and the economy. they are supposed to be the best in years and stocks are brutal >> we are starting to get data points that the weakness in the stockmarket and in the housing market is starting to have an impact it is in terms of buying and wanting to buy and having the dollars to buy i think it is going to be the guidance that people are spooked about and that's why they pull back. >> by the way in three minutes nike will report earnings. >> and retail as a group down 24% from the highs is this a no touch zone or can you say it the discounted some bad news >> i hate to be beating the same drum, mike i'm staying away from retail if you look at retail over the last 20 years from labor day it is exceptionally strong. it rarely misses

you have the news crowd that comes in and they start to sell the companies. one thing that i noticed, you look at consumer discretionary it goes to what he is saying the yellow lights are going off and thinking i don't want to get stuck in the same spot when the housing market slowed down the last time look at tiffany's. i think right now it is one of those things you want to wait and let it hash itself out it will be one that will come back it will lag as it gets higher. >> seems like it waited out. >> i think there are some select ifr buys costco is down it's not that but i think it's attractive so i think you can pick your

spots. i think you have to be very careful. promotional activity means guidance will be squishy next year >> all right thanks very much when we come back another read on the koconsumer find out whether the results can help turn that stock and the market around. carnival is one of the worst because of currency exchange rates. we'll have arnold donald in an exclusive interview.

it looks like a really strong report. it should provide cheer for dow and for nike stock 52 cents per share is a lot better than analysting were looking for. the expectation was 9.1 when it comes to nike it is such

a global company you have to look at the different geography. china still looking very strong for nike with refr -- revenue up 27% in china for north america growth up 9% that was a lot better than expected it has recently turned around from negative growth it also came in better than expected to what is happening in nike right now 43.8% the expectation was 43.6 better innovations leading bibetter talking about the vapor max. sit a company that gets 60% of sales outside the u.s. last quarter they were disappointed they didn't take up guidance because of the strong dollar

a lot of investors were nervous. it looks like a beat which follows nike's track record of beating ten of the last ten quarters guidance gets discussed in the conference call. we'll learn more about that outlook. for europe for some of the geographies. >> 8% move the options market was predicting about a 7 or 8% move. so clearly the stakes were kind of high because of the macro environment and that's about what we got here what is striking, ceo quotes the first thing that it says nike driving. >> all he talks about the digital. digital and direct to consumer has been a huge focus and the reason for the big stock move. it sold off so sharply it is still up for the year. a lot of winners got sold in this and nike included

it is in the cross hairs of the trade fight as well. right now soaring. >> yeah. more than 20% of the high. all right. carnival posting earnings. the stock got hammered finishing down by almost 10% >> joining us now to dig into results carnival corporation ceo arnold donald. >> good afternoon to you happy holidays to both of you. >> happy holidays to you not so much for your stock though big move down. a lot of disappointments around the guidance and what you're seeing in terms of the consumer environment going forward into next year. >> yeah. it was a brutal day on the market and we have had bet are days as well the reality is we have had a great year 15 bank accou

15% growth and we grew north of 10% in earnings. our forecast actually is not softness in consumers. you know, we actually forecasted earnings growth on top of the record that we achieved this year we also guided to additional capital growth we achieved this year. we see a lot of strength we are well ahead on bookings. we have less to book now than we did this time last year. actually the market is strong. there was disappointment the market overfocuses we feel a little bit on one lever. they were disappointed in our yield guidance the reality is our focus is growing earnings we will grow earnings over time over the next five years we have clear plans to grow double digit earnings growth and investor capital >> i no we that analysts asked a

lot about this on the conference call as well the whole expectation was more ships out there should translate into higher growth they didn't get that for your numbers and for your forecast. >> it is higher growth in earnings and in return investor capital. their concern was higher growth in yields. we have nine brands. those brands run from mass contemporary brands to brands like seaborn depending where the capacity is coming at a given point in time of the year certainly in that time of bookings you can have an increase in yield and capacity in a brand that is below the fleet average which can loelgd you down a bit in terms of overall for the corporation. other plan is to grow earnings at a rapid rain and return

investor capital we get that partially through yields and through capacity. there is a ship with more capacity coming? >> bookings look good like they are holding up how rapidly can they change? your stock is clanging hanging e lowest in almost a decade. i think the market is expressing concern overall as you can see from the overall market and we are obviously a party to that and part of it for us we don't see any falloff there demand as i mentioned we have less to book even with the higher capacity than we had same time last year. you flow, know, it is every mar the world. we are also in our brands in particular that the recession friendly because we are at a deep discount to be put at a land based vacations so we are kind of a go-to from a

value and definitely a go-to from a great experience. >> are you seeing more shift towards the value? >> no. the demand we are krcreating is making cruise more aware to the general public and debunking myths of cruise whether it is in europe or china where they don't have myths about cruises they are just unfamiliar with it. we are seeing growth in europe the reality is we have double digit capacity increase and those are ahead on bookings and they will grow earnings this year >> arnold donald thanks very much for joining us today. >> thanks for having me. >> happy holidays. >> happy holidays. when ke come back we'll have

more on whether you should be buying the stock threats of a government shutdown weigh on wall street today. toming up we'll discuss how position your portfolio if washington shuts down tomorrow night. ♪ ignition sequence starts. 10... 9... guidance is internal. 6... 5... 4... 3... 2... 1... ♪

earnings came out moments ago. strong across the board. joining us to dig in is sam

i feel like you'll both love nike and the results what stands out to you >> it stands out how good the business is across all of the geographies. they have new innovations, speed to market. i think we are at the beginning of these changes for nike right now. >> i love the report anything above 47 cents was going to be great. anything above 7% was going to be great i am really worried about nike a little longer term i think 60% of the business that's outside the country is an issue. i think the fact that kids are happy buying an $85 shoe instead of $150 show is a trend.

yes, i think knee knike is a stg brand and direct consumer works for them but i think the trends outside the country are tough. >> we are going to get a debate. >> they are not cheap enough yet. >>. >> it is the brand and how they control distribution and how well they are talking to their consumers. they are really going an exceptional job of that. the other small brands that are doing similar things can't get to scale the other day the purple lobster launched there were 800 people waiting to get their hands on like 200 shoes in front of this retailer for nike >> purple lobster is a nike shoe

>> they are doing it as a small brand, as a big brand and arguably nike is a best grass roots marketing company out there. better than the small guys nike understands and they are getting better at bringing out new product with strong messages more frequently than anybody else >> you talk about industry wide headwinds would they be more of a challenge or do you think -- is nike maximizing market share and customer engagement? >> i think if under armour wasn't toast he would have -- it works in nike's favor. it is a big strong shoe brand from the incrimental

it's not that i don't think nike is the best in the business but i think the things people are starting to buy where they are more excited about small brands we haven't heard of and less caring about celebrity endorsers that's not a good thing if you're a company like nike it's better if you're the smaller brands and the small piece makes a big difference to your growth rate >> this was the -- >> i guess >> it was actually kind of last quarter. >> the fact is all of these splaul retailers and moderate rae tailers and suburban retailers are all saying that nike is getting better and better and better. it seems to be proving out globally i don't see what january is seeing whatsoever. >> good to have you both onto share your views two sided story. what we try to do here nike shares surging after hours. we should know the guidance we'll get from the conference

call i'll be all over it. thank you. >> thank you let's take a look at how we finished up the day on wall street more sharp declines for stocks across the board the nasdaq hammered. you. >> the government shutdown >> and a weak rally attempts index finished off lows but not in an inspiring way. we'll see if we are sold out at the open tomorrow. time now for cnbc news update with sue. >> hello everyone. here is what's happening at this hour president trump's decision to withdraw u.s. forces from syria is being harshly criticized by members of congress from both parties. they call it a hasty move done across top diplomats and military leaders >> there is a statement by the

president today that the idea that russia assad and iran are not really happy about us leaving, i disagree. the most event will be the reimmer jens of isis adds a more credible forceful entity in iraq and jordan and dsurrounding regions. >> a brawl over a poster placed on the tribune on opposition party member tore over the poster. that triggered the fisticuff >> it makes congress looks terrific >> dignified >> exactly >> oh, my god. back to you guys

>> thank you sand haand have a evening. coming up whether congress and president trump will be able to avoid a government shut down and make a deal to calm market fears. aback in a moment

stocks hit a major roadblock today. we are tracking all of the action throughout the day. >> republicans are digging in for a fight over the border wall president trump made it very clear earlier today this is a priority for him and he laid out what he expects to see in any spending deal. >> i'm asking congress to defend the border of our nation for tiny fraction of the cost essential to border security is a powerful physical barrier. walls work whether we like it or not. >> that was a really important statement. it gives political cover for taking what could potentially be a very difficult vote. it gives them a public guarantee the president will back them and

provide him their support if that is a deal they can pass through the house. now, the big question right now is do they have the votes? i talked to steve scalise and they are working on getting the votes to get this passed it is not a yes and not quite a know republicans will be taking a key proceed yurl vote. it will bring us one step closer to a deal to fund the border wall, one step closer to shutdown if it fails or back to square one on capitol hill a catch 22 as negotiations continue on throughout the afternoon. >> we know you'll follow the twists and turns thank you for the update last hour chairman of the council of economic advisers kevin hassett was here on the

show he weighed in. >> if the government were to shut down it would have a negative impact but, you know, think about all of the turmoil we have had over the years looking back on it it seems like we tend to overreact and economically it is not something that has a big long-term effect. if we had a long government shutdown it might show up in the jobs report and so on. >> i guess for the market it is one other thing right now. >> right we have had shutdowns before tends not to have lasting impact it plays with some of the economic impact. you're right once you're in the position of plays defense all of the time the market goes down for any reason it was inescapable that we did get the headlines. you did see acceleration to the

downside >> i mean we are done for the year, right? >> not in terms of idea fiebl news catalysts i think where investors are how much will it have to come down and it is kind of a drawn out process often. >> yeah. i think the earnings is the next big thing. >> fed ex, micron not so much. >> let's talk about shutdown potential here with jan from illinois welcome to the show. nice to see you. >> thank you so much >> where is this all going to go >> we are waiting right now. we started out the morning thinking we had a smooth path to passing a continuing resolution of ending and going home for christmas. donald trump had other ideas in fact this morning we were able to pass a resolution that

set the stage for that vote to come up. later on in the day people had their plane tickets in hand and ready to go home the president called to the white house for members of the house of representatives we are paul ryan and two of the freedom caucus in the room they said no way i want my wall i want $5 billion and you to go back we are not going to pass this bill without it. understand yesterday sanders said that the president can get the money another way. there was pretty much an agreement that we were going to get out of here with a clean continuing resolution until february 8th well, now i guess they are trying to staple together something that the president wants. $5 billion and some disaster relief along with this bill that the senate passed and then they are going to call the bill tonight. we'll see what happens

i don't know if they have the votes in order to do $5 billion for a wall the republicans had not been also keen about that idea. if that happens then mcconnell has called back to be here at noon a number of them, i hear half of them had already left. they will have to come back tomorrow if we pass $5 billion wall agreement what are they going to do my guess is that it's not going to go over so well in the senate it comes back to the house and we still don't flow whatknow whn to happen. merry christmas from donald trump. what does a shutdown mean? we are talk about 345,000 people who already furloughed over the christmas holiday. >> congresswoman, you're laying out a picture of a stalemate without a clear view of how it gets broken. is there any flexion bbility at

least as a jes dlgesture or is t going to be republicans have to figure out if there will be votes? >> i think the republicans at this point are going to figure out if they will be able to get the votes. leader pelosi offered a privilege resolution that said go ahead and pass the senate bill 182 republicans voted no on that so it didn't happen. i don't know if they will ultimately have the votes for the $5 billion for the wall. it's really unclear. there doesn't seem to be a strategy or a plan how to get to an agreement with the senate >> how much progress does it set congress back in terms of making laws and new congress coming in? there is all sorts of new priorities for new legislation it feels like it is manmade delay. >> absolutely. we were set. it was an agreement. the house, the senate and we

thought the white house as well. i don't know that he had ever alerted mitch mcconnell that less was going to call people back and change that you know, so this is more chaos from president donald trump and it's certainly not helping anybody to make sure that we can keep the government going. i don't know that any americans really want to see that kind of shutdown and hundreds of thousands of people without work right now. >> but many americans do want to see the wall, something he campaigned on. thank you for joining us >> thank you democratic take on potential shutdown should they build an investment strategy? he runs the etf. it is company to the president he joins us for his take on all of this.

hal, it has been a tough run in the market overall a tough run for your fund as well we are sitting here with concern about the fed and also about the impact of the administration and tariff policy about perhaps this government shutdown. where does it leave you with regard to figuring out how it is happening. >> yesterday's fed press conference was one of the most irresponsible i have ever seen i mean he said two key things in there. i think people need to understand no one accusing me of misquoting it we and the fed in 2013 and 2014 took that it could be and the pace of runoff and things like that we thought carefully about how to normalize policy and came that we that had balance sheet run off and used rate policy to adjust incoming rate data.

$600 billion a year we won't look at data >> that's been the stated set policy for years >> no. it hasn't. >> you're saying the fed is the only problem despite that we came in saying that we are guns plazing for growth because of tax policy and other things and we can fight a trade were and deal with hire interest rates. >> we can't look at those that don't look at data change. they are it is higher than the long-term growth they would expect >> they have saying they look for 2% growthment that's news to president trump. over the past 30 years up to 2010 we had 16 years it was

greater. he needs to be asked about that. if he is believing we need to be at 2% gdp growth and we'll run after without any care that's a problem. i think ultimately you'll start seeing the administration really criticize thim even more he eetder doesn't understand or he will be accused of deliberately sabotaging the growth policies. >> i think it's fair to bet they will continue not with standing all of the other >> appreciate you. >> thank you >> discuss we'll talk about the financials stick around we'll be right back.

what does 2019 have in store are for the bank stocks after yesterday's big fed rate hike? that's next. [leaf blower]

you should be mad at leaf blowers. [beep] you should be mad your neighbor always wants to hang out. and you should be mad your smart fridge is unnecessarily complicated. but you're not mad, because you have e*trade which isn't complicated. their tools make trading quicker and simpler. so you can take on the markets with confidence. don't get mad. get e*trade and start trading today.

financials down 16% so far in year. one of the worst performing

sectors for the overall market for the year but with a fed rate hike announcement boost the stocks next year. >> joining us to our panel robert, coming into this year, it was rate hikes bullish for banks, cheap valuations bullish for banks. >> tax cuts. >> economy, tax cuts we got a lot of it but the banks didn't work. is that going to change for any reason next year. >> i think it has to go down opinion the banks are down 22% the earnings estimate are up 8, 9% for the group as a whole. you got to split the banks between the very large and all the rest and all the rest are doing double digit c and i loan growth 8 or 9% total loan growth. margins are finally peaking but they're not going down and i think the market is grossly overreacted to this. i would be in with both feet on the financials and particularly. >> the big banks. >> particularly the regional and community banks.

but yes the big ones will recover. they certainly have to outperform the s&p. >> are you as bullish rj. >> i do -- i do agree with what robert says. i do think we have to be respectful of the year-end fundamentals we have seen a tremendous degrossing from hedge funds. seen outflows in the long only mutual fund space. tax law selling is kicking in aggressively here as we -- as we end the year but i do generally agree with his sentiment and read as we head into next year. we have to get through this rough patch heading into year end. but i think it was encouraging how the regional banks acted today. the market was down 450, 500 points and the regional banks wound up disclosing near the flat line which i think was encouraging on heavy volume in the space. >> yeah, i think you see the bottom now. >> well. >> for regionalings. >> and for banks and financials overall.

>> we're in the habit much when he see the financials underperform what do the banks know what kind of secret capital markets accident is waiting to happen right now are they not saying something like that. >> they are not. i think when you listen to the management and even the investors they see nothing remotely explaining this what you have a very nervous market which you can understand having the zero interest rate policy until three years ago and now everyone is looking for neutral and what the fed means you can average that very quickly. i mean if we stay on the current momentum in the economy, fed funds neutral is over 4. but if we drop down to 2.5 real grove it's a little over three that's the dot plot. >> do you have a topic in the secretarier. >> i can't use names. >> rj topic in the sector. >> i think we like jp morgan i mean, you know it depends on what you think about the sector. but we're going to move to quality and try to ride that out while we weather the storm

>> all right come back soon we'll see if indeed we are seeing the bottom. robert albertson and rj grant. >> shares of fischer getting back somewhere some today but sharply lower for the week as the data privacy concerns latest on the fallout next. ♪

what would you like the power to do? ♪ listening to people answer that question, is how we find out what matters most to them. for a business, it's the power to grow.

for an entrepreneur, it's the power to innovate. and for a family, it's the power to own a home. we stand with the ones who day in and day out put in the hard work to make things happen. for themselves, for their communities, and for the world we all share. we want to fuel their drive. and celebrate their accomplishments. that is what we're here for. and above all else, it's really what people want from us. the power to make a difference. ♪ i am brian moynihan. and i work for bank of america. ♪

facebook shares up a bit today but sharply lower for the week as the company deals with all the fallout from the data privacy scandals julia boorstin joins to us break down the costs julia. >> well the cause of facebook failure around data manipulation after rallying in july facebook shares are down about 38% since then and off more than 20% for the year bringing mark zuckerberg's net weather down by $20 billion this year then the cost of the district of columbia lawsuit filed on behalf of the 340,000 d.c. residents whose data was exposed to cambridge analytica. if facebook lose this is suit it could be forced pay $1.7 billion in fines the ftc is investigating if facebook violated the 2011 privacy agreement. violations could bring in billions of dollars in fines

then there are the reputational issues, the naacp and other civil rights groups urge a boycott of facebook raising questions about whether big brands will stay loyal back to you. >> all right julia we'll see if the bounce can continue with all the concerns in the background. >> owe money even for facebook. >> i'm monitoring the nike call. stay with us >> "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square pete najarian, dan nathan guy adami. ton on fast the bears are not hieber naturing, coming from tech, the nasdaq, s&p 500 tech sector entering a bear market. down 20% from the highs. in the market loses the old lead leaders, a top technician tells us which take the reins. th