tv Mad Money CNBC December 27, 2018 6:00pm-7:00pm EST
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fast see you back here tomorrow at 5:00 but meantime do not move we have another hour of jam packed markets coverage starting now. from a record breakingever >> to another big drop today followed by a sudden and wild jump into the close. >> told you anything could happen in that final hour of trade. how about an 865 point swing up. >> are these new surges of volatility the new norm? did we just hit a bump tonight, an all-star cnbc lineup, including jim cramer, melissa lee, and the traders plus, the closing bell team. they're all here to help you shelter your money from the storm and help take advantage of these sudden and sharp ups and downs for the stock market this cnbc special "markets in
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turmoil" begins right now, with melissa lee at the nasdaq market site in the heart of times square >> good evening. we're live here tonight, because of the massive volatility on wall street. jim cramer may be away but never fear, the "mad money" man is with us tonight to weigh in and explain what is happening and how you can protect your money we start off with the markets, and there's the wild ride today for the dow. lower most of the day. that sun till the bulls came charging in around 3:00 p.m. the dow finishing up 260 points on the day that was crazy, bob. >> you know, melissa, you've been around a long time, too even by today's standards it's been wild in the last two days look what we saw yesterday, a typical drop mid morning, that was yesterday. the dow goes into negative territory at the lows for the year then it turns around and stages an 1100 point rally but it
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doesn't hold today, we open, down over 200 points and we begin the long 871-point rally. here's the key question i had throughout the day today are we selling into the rallies or buying on the dip we have our answer, for the second day in a row, we are buying on the dip. now, is this the bottom? there are still many fundamental issues that need to be resolved, including rate hike issues, tariffs and trade, and china this is the kind of action you do see at bottom, sloppy up and down action. what caused this late-day rally? first, oversold conditions that in the past indicated buyers should step in secondly, tax law selling, which happens in the early part of december but looks like it's starting to abate. third, many of the beaten up stocks had been heavily shorted,
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and these short sellers will cover their shorts if they see the market turning against them. that's happened. finally, i think this is an important factor asset reallocation many pension funds have seen the value of their stock holdings drop and their bond holdings soar this month. many are required to require a certain allocation of stocks, so they have to step in and buy stocks and sell bonds. look at the selling in bonds midday today about 2:15, selling dramatically picked up in bond etfs that's that orange line. you see that drop there? at exactly the same time, the s&p bottomed and began an 80-point rally that's the white line, and melissa, that sure looks likes a set allocation to me >> bob, thank you. jim cramer is joining us on the phone tonight. jim, we knew you couldn't stay away from this wild market what's your take on the past two
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days >> first, thanks for letting me play on this special i think that we saw some things, and one is that when we have been oversold, typically when it goes over ten, you have to buy, except for in 2008-2009. i think this was much more of a man-made selloff i think the fed made some mistakes and we got too negative on what could happen with the trade deal and a lot of people panicked but way too many people say this is exactly a bear market spike and i want to point out, i've been trading since '79 what matters to me is we don't have more events like we had october 3rd and 4th, more fed rakes without a lot of consequences from the fed's point of view, meaning they can
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do whatever they want. i think we can have a trade deal is oil bottoming i think it might be, because these are prices where they can't stand to continue to pump. so i see some positives. we have had an ongoing rolling crash or months, and it's not like there aren't some bargains at 13 times earnings >> yeah. it's been a rolling bear market. we saw semi conductors go by the wayside, f.a.n.g. went by the way. it was sector by sector. so here we are now, jim. what do you tell investors to do when you see a terrible christmas eve, and then you get two star days higher, with this big reversal today by the way, do you start getting out that buy list >> i think that you can take a look at some of the serious names. i'm not a fan of micron, but the thing that drove it down was the
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belief that the data center was flowing, but we had the biggest moves in a long time a big move in sales force. i think that those are indicative that there's some things going on that are positive yeah, you got to figure out what you're time horizon is say you're in your 60s or 70s. this market is not for that kind -- it's a speculative market but there's a lot of stocks for people in their 20s, 30s, 40s, put it in the s&p again. look, it is not a market for the squeamish, but i look at walmart, that's went straight down, held at $85. i said, that's a sign of strength, not weakness and i'm seeing more stocks that have shown strength in the last two days than in a long time
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yeah, it was supposed to go down big today and it did, but it didn't go down tall way, so i think we're okay >> you tweeted moments ago i believe if you're in your 60s and you were just talking about this, a look at your allocation. adding cds may be a way to go in this sort of volatile market >> sadly i am in those years [ laughter ] i am adding some cds our faithful friend jay powell made the cd your best friend if we're going to do two more rate hikes, he's going to make it so there's less and less of an ability to invest in the stock market, which i think would be a shame he can walk back what he has to do, but the cds are yielding a lot. i feel like this market is no longer as safe as it's been, because you don't like it when it goes up a thousand, up 800. that's not healthy but i also think that if you got
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the time horizon to own a high quality walmart, high quality jpmorgan, i don't think you're going to look at it badly. >> what do you make of retail stocks a t this point? we got some great mastercard spending data and we got consumer confidence data, which was very disappointing so what do you make of this beaten down group at this point? >> that peaked pretty much at the same time that target said look, this is about -- this is the greatest he had ever seen it which then became it's as good as it's ever going to get. retail is okay, not great, not bad. one of the reasons it's okay is because the fed has just created a level of fright that makes it so people are saying, my wealaym not as wealthy as i thought.
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online is terrific, but the fact is, there's a lot of stores that are doing very badly this whole notion that it was a great christmas, looking at brick and mortar, brick and mortar in the mall was bad, it wasn't okay, it was bad. people have to recognize that. >> f.a.n.g., f.a.n.g. plus names, they're on their shopping list is that a fool's game or is that a place you would go >> we have a lot of stocks that are very beaten down, and you can pick one of those. when i created f.a.n.g., i didn't think it was going to be a diversified portfolio. give me a break. if someone put them together, pick one, and the one i would pick, i think, is the cheapest one is alphabet. amazon, a couple days ago was amazing. i think amazon is okay but the idea of just running in and say thing is the bottom,
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like facebook i heard people say. who knows? facebook did some change today to their instagram feed which was stupid as all get out. they're proving to be, i don't like to use the word morons, but wow, what a bunch of morons. can they get anything right? so i can't bank on those guys. but i can bank on traditional industrialists who are doing a good job i can bank on jamie dimon without much of a problem. i can bank on some of these ceos who are very, very good. i can bank on james quincy and coca cola and feel okay. pick one f.a.n.g., but don't pick an etf, because that's just stupid people who are a disgrace >> all right smart words, jim in terms of what we watch in tomorrow's session tomorrow morning, what are the first things you look at as tells for the market trade for that day
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>> oil, oil, and then oil. you want to see those 2400 levels that's such an incredible battleground to me if the market does down, i want to see the vix not go up i do want to see the oscillator stay as negative i like that. we've seen this pattern, this kind of pattern again in a bunch of situations where you had to do some buying but don't buy up look what they gave you today. down 2%, 3%. and if you buy up, i'm telling you, they're going to make you look like an idiot >> jim, great to speak with you. thank you for phoning in >> thank you i really appreciate it >> jim cramer of "mad money. 2400 is a key level to defend. carter, are you in that camp i heard 2420
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>> what we do know is we have an oversold condition and we have the desire to buy. but if you look at the only noninstances the last 30 years where only 10% of stocks are above average in the s&p 500, you test that low again. you test the low, made a low in 1932, you test it again in 1933. in '15, '16, we made the low and test it. the notion that we can bounce here and go straight up is misguided. >> what did you like off of jim's shopping list or what's on your own >> you know, i think the fact that what jim talked about you have to match your investment to your time horizon, right it's very different if you're talking about law, i want to have a trade here and buy amazon, something i said earlier. that's a trade and i think it goes higher. but if you're 60 and looking for an entree point, just understand that maybe this isn't the entree point for the next five years. it could be the entry point for the next six months, though.
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>> right >> we have a lot of 60-year-old clients. the number one determination in retirement as they enter that distribution phase is not maximizing performance, but rather minimizing volatility stick with dividend paying stocks you'll have less volatility. >> this time we have these tremendous volatile days you have to stick with buying the s&p. jim said single stocks i don't disagree with that but you have to buy etfs everything is going to move with the rest of the group. so i think you buy spiders if you think it's going to pop like i do, you get long speederspeed e -- spiders. >> let's again down to the new york stock exchange. hey, guys. >> hey, it certainly has been a wild week. we're lucky to have a front row seat boy, emotions are running high we can tell you that the sounds of the new york stock exchange, that's what sticks out to me, watching the traders stand in front of their screen, watching
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cnbc, watching the big board of the dow ticking higher in the final what, 20 minutes of trade or so today? there was a cheer once the dow went positive, which is something we heard yesterday, too. >> exactly, when we hit 1,000 points the tone of rule, even on monday, wasn't too down beat when we saw that, maybe because it was christmas time. >> when fed chair powell was giving his news conference, people were screaming, make him stop talking, because the market was cratering into that. >> the other thing i want to point out in terms oh of what happened is this unison with which the markets moved. steve grasso was pointing to that on monday, we saw all 11 sectors lower. today, they all closed higher. this market is not moving on fundamentals, it's not moving off earnings, not this week any way. it's moving risk on sentiment or risk off
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the transition has been incredibly sharp >> what stands out to me is the two of us have since, since 2008, since 2009 it was the biggest reversal since 2008, in the financial crisis we're not in that. so people are trying to figure out is this a bear market bounce or will we get more confirmation the >> one expert was with us earlier today. art cashen, let's listen to what he summed up as the sentiment earlier. >> if they close down over 500 points, that just negates what happened yesterday if they only close down about 250, it means the game is still open, you have to check. when they got to minus 600 or so in the dow, everybody stepped back and said uh-oh, that's a lower low, we may get trap door selling. it did not appear. then around 2:00, you get the
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first look at the market on closing. now we're back in, minus 400, you start to weaken again. a lot will depend if those market on closes change. >> john, what did you make of that intraday reversal, is that a very bullish sign in >> it was. just as it was yesterday, of course i'm not just saying it because obviously the markets were higher both the last two days. but there was key stocks that i was watching like facebook, amazon, apple, netflix these stocks that had those 9.5% gain for amazon yesterday. 8% gain for apple, and facebook yesterday. they didn't give back more than 3% all day and then, as we pushed into that final hour, the addition alibiing that came in took many of those stocks, including netflix, into the green. so that was a very positive
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sign i think you're getting to a point here where if the bears were really going to make a stand, with the tax laws and all the things related to the callahan car, if they were really going to make a stand, sara, i think they would have done it today, because you would have had that exhaustion the bulls being tired after that huge turn around yesterday and then having to hold the market at down 400 today, that is when they were most vulnerable instead, they pushed hard and really kicked a lot of the shorts out of the market today >> it was a reversal of the script that we've been seeing, which is fade the rallies. what are you watching for tomorrow since you got it right today? >> i'll watch the winners and losers on whatever, you know, pick your poison of whether it's cnbc.com, which we hope it is. if you're looking at the column with the winners and the losers,
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if you don't recognize the names in that loser column, that's what it was like all day today you didn't see apple, facebook, netflix on that list you saw a bunch of stocks that you could barely remember part of the s&p 500 if we see that tomorrow, in other words, they don't show up on the loss side and some of them are showing up on the win si side, a lot of big buying into that last 45 minutes if we see that kind of activity tomorrow, we'll finish higher tomorrow >> thank you, john we're just getting started here >> what the economy is telling us about the future of the stock market >> and a wave of big names that are calling a bottom (toni vo) 'twas the night before christmas,
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"markets in turmoil. >> who's got it right, the market, which fears recession, or the economists who say it's simply a slowdown? steve joins us with more steve, over to you >> well, there is a big tug of war over the outlook i want to show that tug of war, down a thousand, up a thousand i want to look at one piece of data, that's today's plunge in consumer confidence. the biggest drop in three years to the lowest level in five months you say wow, that's happening. but hold on, let's put it into context here and go bay back here that was -- this is now 35 years with data. here's my slowdown right here. if you wouldn't mind zooming in right here, mr. cameraman on that orange bit. that's the slow down everybody said oh, my god. now go back out and we'll look at what kind of indicator
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consumer confidence can be these red lines are recessions 1990, seven 3407months of decli. we have two months of decline, you have to start somewhere. but that's where there's two different looks. oh, my god, it's the beginning of this. on the other hand, we're in a very, very high level here the same story comes out here, jobs the direction has been down, it's a little weaker the level very high. there's some manufacturing surveys that are directionally down business investment, small business confidence and consumer confidence, all of them at relatively high levels so you're down a thousand, up a thousand i think because the market is closing one eye and looking at the next bit here, if you take a look here's the x factors or the battle between the x factors that are out there fed rate hikes, slowing down the
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economy, trade wars. nobody knows how that will come out. global economic weakness will it wash up on these shores? and the market sells off could create its own economic weakness let's open up the other eye and take a look at the other side. strong consumer, all reports, consumers spent well during christmas. tax cuts, still going to happen next year. and even though they're tightening, and reducing the balance sheet, fed rates and the balance sheet are still easy, still lots of liquidity out there. that's a big reason you have a market that goes down a thousand, up a thousand, because there's a great big battle right now over the outlook >> it's a great way that you just laid it out, steve. and arguments on both sides. clearly the markets are throwing a tan rum here how much more does the stock market have to go down before the fed changing its tune? >> you're asking for me what's
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inside the crypt, sarah. everybody wants to know the level where the fed will come in i think the answer can only be answered as follows. the point where the federal reserve believes that the stock market decline will reduce or lower economic outcomes is one where they start to take seriously market levels here, and it might bring some action they might suggest we're far from that right now. they would want to see it show up in other indicators remember, 3.7% unemployment rate, some of the best wage gains we have had in a long time you have massive stimulus in the system those are the things that led it to hike and those things haven't gone away. >> steve, i've got another question for you, something that's not in your red box there behind you or not explicitly at least, and that's global growth. estimates for that have come down in a way that perhaps u.s. growth estimates haven't
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have they come down enough to derail u.s. growth itself in the years ahead? >> just for the record, i put these in x factors because i don't know what x is, right? we know that in the fast, we have had weakness in europe, especially during the financial crisis when america was on much, much shorter footing, where that weakness hurt us a lot now we're running 2%, 3% growth. when you have a stronger growth level, that weakness might hurt us less. obviously we are not an island in the storm, so to speak. but we will be affected by those other countries, but if we have stronger growth, that effect will be somewhat less. >> steve, thank you very much. >> a pleasure. >> let's get back over to me lessa lee standing by. melissa? >> thank you we want to talk about what steve was just laying out, that is sort of the x factors in where the market is versus the economy. there's always that disconnect
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what's interesting is that where the markets were a few months ago, jerome powell seems to have finally come around to the market's thinking in terms of where rate hikes should or should not be. >> it's interesting, steve talked about the fact where is the fed put? it's close to where we are right now. the day or two after powell's first press conference, they trotted out three or four fed governors to say we do look at the stock market, and you know what the quantitative tightening isn't on auto pilot necessarily. >> i didn't hear that. >> why didn't they even come out -- >> i didn't get that from powell yet, that the deleveraging -- >> not from powell >> but williams the next day >> i saw them all march out and i think they've done a great job of other people doing powell's dirty work the market doesn't want any hike there's never -- everyone always thinks there's a fed friendly hike the market has told us, they're
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greedy they don't want any hike whatsoever so the market is establishing zero hikes in 2019 i have not 45eheard powell say it is robotic on the delevering. >> we said that during his conference, but then the fed governors walked it back it's one of the levers of monetary policy that they use. the other thing is that the fed still has two rate hikes in their plot to me, at this point, with how much the market sold off and when i look at inflation, which gives you an idea what inflation is going to be over the next two to five years, their low, there's no reason for the fed to raise. so even just hey, wait a second, we might not do two rate hikes would be positive for the market >> look 59 that master slide with the recessions. it has to start somewhere. think about this in january of this year, there wasn't a single country with a
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pmi below 50 last time that happened was 2007 the issue is, is the market ahead of what is invariably a recession coming and notice how the talk, just four, five months ago, it won't be until 2022. now people are talking about '19. the market has either got it wrong or the market has got it right. >> where do you stand? >> i don't think the market has it right i think the market is overly consumed with these uncertainties, being the trade war. when is there going to be resolution i don't think we're going to see resolution within that 90-day window i think they're going to punt. what is the fed's course of action going to be i don't think there's enough clarity. i think the fed told us that they don't have enough visibility, and they're going to make mistakes, right when you don't have confidence
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in the fed, it's tough for us to do our jobs. so i don't think the market has it right at this point i think a lot of it just deals with the uncertainty >> i think the fed is going to have to let the runoffs happen now you're starting to hear people say they're going to cut. they're not going to cut they would have to stop the reductions first off their balance sheets, and then they would have to cut. but if they don't do that, if they just say okay, we're not raising, they're still raising >> aren't two hikes in the back half of next year, isn't that almost as good as no hikes next year >> almost. if you look at the fed probabilities, they have changed dr dramatically so the odds of a rate hike next year are very slim that's one indicator i look at, which is the chicago fed index, it's really simple to read above zero, the economy is good,
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below zero, the economy is bad it's above szero, so we're good. up next, we'll debate whether it's time to get into the market the cnbc special report is back in two minutes your brain is an amazing thing. but as you get older, it naturally begins to change, causing a lack of sharpness, or even trouble with recall.
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stocks," and scott miner saying i would be a buyer more than a seller at this point any decline in prices in equities here is going to result in the fed announcing it will take action. even president trump making comments on the buying opportunity created after this market selloff >> i have great confidence in our economies. we have companies, the greatest in the world, and they're doing really well. they have record numbers so i think it's a tremendous opportunity to buy really a great opportunity to buy. >> wasn't such a bad call here >> buy >> i'm going to be selective and pick those companies i think will do well late cycle. >> i'm a buyer i feel more comfortable buying at these levels than 20% higher. >> with these three buyers, i'm
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saying sell. >> why >> because it doesn't seem to me that we've suffered enough i think you need to suffer, and all the data is softening. the market has probably got it right. >> let's get to leslie picker, who has gone inside the markets to find out what's causing this christmas week volatility. >> i want to start with an analogy. picture a row boat, if it has enough people, it will be stabilize. but if it has fewer people and moves to one side, the boat may tip in that direction. that's akin to what we're seeing in the market this week, with fewer participants, thanks to the holiday, and importantly, this is all happening against the backdrop of this new market regime of quantitative tightening in other words, it takes far less to move the market one way or the other when there's less liquidity, coupled with less volume on individual names bring that against the backdrop of greater uncertainty, and it's
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possible to have just a couple of large players, machine or human, move the market in one direction or another that's why you have these fast and furious swings like we have seen in he cent days some of this is due to hedge funds. and within that group, there ar participants also contributing to these moves on the margin, namely mutual funds and etfs put this all against the backdrop of what time of year it is, with fund managers looking to lock in the best returns they can muster, and you have a recipe for wild market action. at least the last few trading days >> leslie, thank you we have a lot more ahead tonight. when we come back, one of the biggest money managers in the country weighs in on what he's doing with his billions. and we're taking your questions, so tweet us and we'll answer them live tonight. duncan just protected his family
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around today what a session not for the faint of heart >> after yesterday's record breaker, the drama returned today. stocks giving back a big chunk of yesterday's gains and then a sudden and late surge of buying into the close we have a lot more ahead tonight on this cnbc special report "markets in turmoil. now here's wilford frost and sarah eisen, live at the new york stock exchange. >> we are here after another wild day on wall street. the dow swinging nearly 900 points today, staging its biggest reversal in a decade >> let's bring in chris edleman from the california state teacher's retirement system. chris, good evening to you thank you very much for joining us >> good evening. i'm dizzy from today i have to tell you >> as are we it's been a crazy couple of days this volatility we've seen, is
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it normal or is it something new, chris >> no, i think the last few days have been abnormal volatility. it was discussed earlier the volatility we saw in october and november i thought that was going to be expected, and that's typical when you have a bull market that's so old and so late in the economic stage. but the last few days have been abnormal christmas eve is normally a quiet day, and that was crazy to see that decline >> there's another factor that we were hearing about here on the floor of the stock exchange today, and that is pensions like yours having to rebalance to the end of the year, get your stock allocations back up where they need to be after losses. is that what you're doing and seeing >> well, most of my peers don't rebalance based on just the calendar, they do based on market levels. our goal is to be
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countercyclical. so when everybody was selling christmas eve, on boxing day, the day after, we did come back into the market and buy a little bit. we're going the feather in, take some profits in bonds, and move in opposite directions with the overall market i know a lot of our peers were low in their allocation for stocks, and were using these as opportunities to come in and buy in and put some base back into the market >> chris, a lot of people thought higher rates were one of the marks for the equity market to sell off in october, but the ten-year note has fallen so the traditional portfolio is back in vogue and is that something you recommend for next year >> i think the balance portfolio has always been useful, particularly for retail investors. you shouldn't just be in stock,
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even if you're a young person. you have to have a little bit of a mix. but they need those bonds to balance out their portfolio. i'm pleased to see that bond yields are holding in there. we were just talking, especially in november, about fear of a flat yield curve or inverted yield curve. bond yields have held in there and i'm going to take my leave for more of the bond market than i am from the stock market the stock market volatility is just too extreme in this environment. maybe when we get into january and we get earnings. but my focus is going to be on the bond market as far as the economy. >> how do you take a long-term view right now, when you have major issues, like the trade war with china and what the fed is going to do next year? >> you've got to back up and look at the big picture. as you said, we're in a stable economy. the uncertainty is whether the market is forecasting a recession next yeerar i'm going to look at the
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consumer our focus is around the globe. non-u.s. is not looking very healthy right now, so at times that will be a buying opportunity. so that's taking a long-term view at that mix, how much should be in stocks, u.s. versus non-u.s., and how much should be in fixed income and we have the ability to invest in real estate, infrastructure, other types of investments that have been much more table in this kind of environment. >> skras of late august, your t holdings included apple, facebook, amazon, et cetera. are you a big buyer following the pullbacks of those big tech anymo names? >> 70% of our u.s. portfolio is passive, so we haven't necessarily been a net buyer in those names, because we felt they were overvalued when the nasdaq ran up during the summertime but we're not going to actively
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trade that i always enjoy melissa lee's show and the gang of guys around her, but we're not going to be trading this market in that way. we're going to be feathering in or out based on long-term trends we're still going to hold those stocks i always joke, it's more a.n.a. than it is f.a.n.g so i think some of those names still have strength, but they are fairly valued in the marketplace, even at these levels >> chris, thank you for joining us chris ailman chris said he enjoys watching melissa and the gang. as do all of us. that does it for sarah and i >> we'll see you tomorrow morning. you've got a fan >> thanks, guys. coming up next, the markets have gone wild, but don't worry, the traders here have you covered. we'll answer your questions. there's still time to tweet, so stay tuned
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going on right now, so we want to take some tweets. vinnie asks, is chip stock nvidia a bad stock to own right now. mark, what do you say? >> no. we love it so we're bullish on gaming and nvidia is one of the best when it comes to gaming east sports viewership is up 40% year over year every other major league sport is down except for baseball, which is up a whopping 1%. so we absolutely love nvidia >> next viewer has a question about tesla. what is going on with tesla? it's given up a lot. steve? >> i thought when elon musk had all his problems, i thought the stock would be cut in half instead, it went from $237 to $380 i would be a seller of it here, but be very careful, because it could get tied up in the market. if the market rallies, this could rally with it. so if you don't have a strong stomach, just stay clear >> i like tesla here i would be a buyer of yourselfing. so we have a trade right there
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on the weekly basis, it's uncorrelated to the s&p 500, so it adds diversification to your portfolio. >> and this is fror carter. what so you think of schlumberger >> it's a trade. this stock has been murdered and has all the hallmarks of something that's impaired. but dropping from $80 to $36, maybe a risk reversal, something that can be discussed on friday. wild christmas week for the markets, complete with triple digit moves. so with just two trading days left in 2018, we'll tell you what you need to know for january.
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welcome back to our special markets in turmoil as we close out this dismal december, what is foremost on trader's minds heading into january b hey, bob >> hello, melissa. the big issues for the first two weeks of december, first, fund flows. investors traditionally put money into the market in the first weeks of january will they do so after the worst
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december since 1931? number two, what will corporate earnings look like investors are expecting earnings growth of 8% in 2019 but after fedex and micron, the market is acting like it will be zero percent will strategists take down their number now number three, any progress on all on china, will we see a real face-to-face meeting with even low-level negotiators sometime in the middle of january as china has indicated? we really want to know that one. number four, does the fed send even more dovish signals about a slowing in the balance sheet runoff and one more, melissa, the president and political risk will a calmer white house emerge or will the relative chaos continue a lot for markets to digest in the first weeks of january >> so it's four with a bonus >> that's right. >> bob, thank you.
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always watching bob, always watching what's number one on the list for you? >> so i guess you would have to go with the fed, since the fed created this whole selloff october 3rd. that was the falloff into the abyss of the market throes so i think you have to say, it's the fed is number one, but that is such a long, extended worry that i think the china trade could be a second. >> let's narrow it down for the month of january >> the fed, without a doubt. they're hiking just way too quickly. with the quantitative tightening, that's the equivalent of three rate hikes in 2019 any ways so i think the fed is the number one thing to watch >> i have to narrow it down to one? i think all of those the bullish case for the market, if you want to have the bullish case, all those things are unresolved as they get resolved, those are catalysts for the market so yeah, is the fed a big issue?
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of course. tariffs are a big issue, as well and positioning is a big issue, and the dollar is a big issue. all of the above >> i think the number one thing is how it behaves in january in 2017, january up huge 2016, down big january is rarely benign >> so you'll tell us after it happens. >> we'll see in the first few days >> we'll get you ahead of tomorrow's trading action, and this is next for your heart... your joints... or your digestion... so why wouldn't you take something for the most important part of you... your brain. with an ingredient originally discovered in jellyfish,
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coverage we should note, light volume, thin trading day we are looking at a lower open, if we open here the way we see it in the futures right now. so with that backdrop, we want to ask you guys all, what are you looking at, at tomorrow's market open in terms of indicators, what is the first thing that will hit your screen? >>over night trading and how tril industrials and financials trade. >> the future is down, i kind of like you want to see a little bit of a pullback we've had two tremendous days of buying a little bit of a pullback and then have it hold. >> i would like to see it open down, close up >> i would like to see it open up, stay up all day long don't get sucked in, watch that 2:30 action, that's where the pension money comes in >> thank you for being here tonight. that does it for us.
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we'll pick it up tomorrow at 5:00 a.m. eastern time i'll see you tomorrow on "squawk box" and "shark tank" begins right now. >> welcome to the shark tank, where entrepreneurs seeking an investment will face these sharks. if they hear a great idea, they'll invest their own money or fight each other for a deal. this is "shark tank." ♪ who are hoping their product will become an everyday household fix-it tool. hi, sharks. i'm eric child. and i'm spencer quinn. and we are fiber fix. fiber fix? fiber fix! [ laughter ] fiber fix! we're looking for $90,000 for 10% of our company.
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