it was something president trump threatened and talked about in the campaign it actually came true. >> it's true >> we saw tariffs all over the place. business is still trying to figure out how to deal with it >> amazing to think it really just start in february we've been living with it for so long, it seems, but it was this year >> and starting to show up more and more in company earnings >> that does it for "closing bell." >> happy 2019 and a healthy one too. "fast money" begins right now. >> oh, yes, it does. "fast money" starts right now live from the nasdaq market site you know where we are. we're overlooking a packed and soggy times square in new york city about a million people get ready to watch the ball drop the new year celebration is happening around the globe check out these images from athens they've rung in the new year still seven hours to go here on the east coast a little longer if you're out in california our traders in tuxes tonight

we start tonight with the markets. kill the celebration music, folks. let's cue the scary stuff. >> we have to. >> 2018 was no celebration for stocks it was more like opera worst year in the market -- for the market in a decade the meltdown started, of course, in october despite a little reprieve in the last week or so, the s&p 500 ends the year down 6%. the question of the hour, should the new year bring with it a new portfolio? what do you do now, guy? >> tyler >> i'm back. >> happy new year. >> it's unbelievable >> we're going to bring out the bubbly later. >> how many did you say are out there, a million people? >> a million people. >> that's a "fast money" audience >> i'm thrilled you're my date tonight. >> that's right. we're going to have fun tonight. >> pete's in minneapolis hey, pete. >> how are you, guy?

>> look at pete. looks good, doesn't he >> he does >> unfortunately, although we had that big downdraft a couple weeks ago, we had a huge spike last week, i still think there might be further room to the downside i don't think anything has necessarily been solved. obviously you can point to last week and say that was a textbook v-bottom and the market put in a can -- bottom. i think there are places to be in 2019. we'll talk about them in a bit unfortunately, i think the first couple months could get a little dicey. >> here's what i think has been solved you've got no place where -- i think markets have gotten to a place from a sentiment perspective where you've absolutely made major adjustments. for the first time in the last three or four months, we started to introduce volatility in a major way, although we had that bout earlier in the year the geopolitics, repositions, and sentiment are reasons the market looks better than fundamentals have it pegged for. >> and if you think about what

brought the market down -- so we worried jay powell was going to lose his job he's probably in his job for the next three to six months we're worried about tar riviffs they'll also likely be a lot easier than we thought even six weeks ago. the chances of them doing two rate hikes next year, them being the fed, i think that's pretty much off the table at this point, at least in my mind then the tariffs, we're making movement on that and we've come down 20%. sure, there's slower global growth, but we've priced a lot of this in i feel a lot more comfortable about buying equities at these levels than i did at the highs with all these things were priced in. >> so you mentioned sentiment. pete, i'm going to turn to you is sentiment broken, or is it still intact, number one and what do you think investors are smarter today than they were in october >> well, i think the sentiment -- i don't know that

it's broken. as a matter of fact, i look at this right now and we've been talking about this for a while the velocity of these moves has been absolutely unbelievable i think a lot of that has to do with algorithms. in other words, computer-driven moves we've seen when you get a thousand-point rise and a 600-point drop, that's pretty spectacular. you look at the volatility index, we were at 36 last week we closed at 25 today. if that was a stock, that would be the stock that everybody would be talking about but it's the volatility index. that's telling you what people are looking at in the market i know that tobias talked about this several years ago he talked about volatility within that 20 to 25 range it's kind of a no-touch area so it's a very uncomfortable spot for most people now, when we had that huge volatility spike, i think that created some opportunities i think there are opportunities in this market because of the contraction you've seen in the p.e. levels of so many different companies. i think that has given us an opportunity to look around and say, you know what, it's gotten too much oversold, i think it is. i know brian said maybe he sees

more downside. i see a little bit more upside looking forward. >> the biggest no-touch area is right behind me, folks right there in times square. what should i do, pete if i buy your thesis, what should i do here starting on january 2? >> well, i think there are two areas right now that we talk about all the time you want to talk about contraction. you look at energy, but energy makes a lot of sense, why those p.e.s contracted as much as they did. we had that huge drop in the price of oil when you look at the financials, that gets more interesting if you go back 2017, financials had an unbelievable year, up 20 plus percent this year, not so good obviously down close to 20 plus percent. when you look at what's going on, look at the contraction and look at where their earnings and revenue are right now today or the last four quarters all the sudden you started to say, you know what, maybe this is the next area that i ought to be looking at. i look at j.p. morpmorgan, goldn

sachs, but when you look at the price versus where these stocks are trading right now, it's absolutely unbelievable. i think that gives you an opportunity. i think that's why maybe financials, 2019, that's why i think there's much more room >> i'm with you on that one, pete you look at the price to book ratio on these, a lot are trading below one. i don't think that financials necessarily should trade above one. they're more like utilities at this point in time but bank of america trading below one on a price to book ratio, unless you think there's a major recession heading down the road and that book value is going to erode then that's a pretty good value, especially after this downturn >> let me play devil's advocate. i tend to agree with both of you on valuations here with banks that have had record earnings. i'm comfortable owning jpmorgan. if you look at where we are in the credit cycle, and you can make an argument we basically had a full -- excluse me -- a stick stuck in the spokes.

we had no high-yield deals done in december, which is the first month going back to the crisis bottom line is i think banks could be not necessarily fundamentally victims of a slower economy here, but what the market is doing to banks is certainly preparing for third, fourth quarter 2019. that's really what it comes down to >> there's a reason why banks are trading below book value goldman sachs has their own issues citibank significantly below tangible book is a concern i think it stems from their exposure to europe look atwhat's going on with deutsche bank. you wonder some of the risk from europe is making its way into our shores i happen to think it is. i think it's manifesting itself. >> do you really think after 2008, 2009 that the banks are going to be allowed to go under like they did with lehman? this is where all the fire

trucks are they will prop these up. >> yields close today somewhere around 2.67 on the ten year this is the lowest number since january. yields are probably looking at 2.50 now as the next level of support. this is telling you -- >> what is it telling you? is it telling you worse times are ahead? >> it's telling you the market is concerned about growth in the first couple quarters of the year i think we start to react sell rate into the third and fourth quarter. i think we have put a stick in the bicycle spokes of a global economy that was actually churning along i think we are seeing slower growth i think the ten-year bond reflexed that. >> let's bring in our first guest of the evening in early december, he said a santa claus rally was coming to wall street. listen >> so how strong is this santa claus rally going to be, you think? >> i think we could get 7% out of it. >> wow 7% here? you mean in the next month >> that's a big bag of goodies >> yeah, from here to the end of the year, i think we could >> well, santa claus' sleigh must have had issues

the s&p is down 10% since that call so we brought him back oppenheimer's chief investment strategist i guess you can say in the last four days we've had a nice little rally we've at least had some wrapped chocolates i've got to say the operative word there was think i think. >> it was a powerful rally we had that day or the day before, as i recall, after we'd seen so much downside. what really impressed us the most in this last year were the first nine months. they were really very good we had a challenge in the first quarter. market got over it, showed resilience, all the way until the end of the third quarter you had record highs the nasdaq, the southbou&p 500, mids, the russell 2000s, it was across the board then all of a sudden people started worrying about, what happens to growth?

what if china doesn't work out what about joerome powell >> so all that stuff is what made december the worst december since 1931 >> i believe so. and within context, when you consider the s&p is only off 6.6% -- >> so you should be bullish at this point >> absolutely. i think right now -- >> is he going to come back and drop some presents >> he might very well. he might have some kind of pleasant surprise in here. but we do believe there's progress being made in china, the fed is decidedly trying at least to be more communicative >> guy says he sees more dhurch. >> i do. >> is it as simple as for the last eight years -- sarah eisen pointed this out central banks' balance sheets expanding over the last six months now you've had them globally

contracting, led by our fed. is it that simple, that you stay with central banks balance sheets >> we're see the central banks normalize. the process of normalization based whereon rates are, money is still very cheap. the process of normalization is very, very sensitive to both weaknesses -- both vulnerabilities and strengths in these economies. as a result of that, i think most of what we had in this fourth quarter, which was very painful -- i mean, in terms of talking to a lot of people, keeping them off the ledge the reality was, it was algorithmic trading. it was opportunistic investors finding an opportunity to justify selling and taking profits. >> let me bring in pete for a

question >> sure. thanks, tyler. so you agree with the idea the al algorithmic trading and the absolute massive moves are crazy. but has that created now the opportunity that i think we're seeing are there opportunities? i'm not just talking financials. i'm looking across the board there were s&p stocks that have been absolutely punished with p.e.s that now even if they don't grow are in the single digits did you see that opportunity are there certain sectors where you see more than other places >> i have to agree with you, pete sectors i like the best remain technology i think technology experienced a fairly brutal selloff considering it was up as high as 17% on a year to date basis. by the end of the third quarter, gave back most of those gains. the thought of it here would also be industrials, the new

technology technology when i got into the business 35 years ago was brass and a lot of glass and dials today it's all sensors consumer discretionary, more people working, people are feeling -- having more confidence as to will they retain their jobs. wages are rising modestly. >> we're wrong on this desk all the time there's a lot of strategists that have changed their tune in the last couple months and have made adjustments you could make an argument that the trade snafu, war, whatever you want to call this, is enough to make a call if you did not have trade as a dynamic, don't you still think we could be in a dynamic where we could have slower growth, where s&p earnings priced up 7% in 2019 is very ambitious off of really difficult comps for companies that haven't been reinvesting in their business? and actually, sentiment on the business side is negative. i'm just trying to push back a little bit we acted like the market has

moved for now reason and now it a great opportunity to get in. >> the reality is it had plenty of reason to be concerned about the trade war and the implications for u.s. businesses, if they have to find new supply chains, if this becomes a protracted trade war, which i don't think it will. in terms of the fed, that's very typical. the market never trusts a new fed chair until they've been in the office about four years. >> they always test them >> it's always a brutal battle and the last is whenever oil drops precipitously like this, think 2015 into 2016 so there was a bit of kabuki theater. the masks were painted a certain color. i'm not saying the concern -- >> guy loves kabuki theater. >> going tonight, actually >> good luck in 2019 >> happy new year. >> fantastic good to see you. let's trade what we just talked

about. guy, kick us off >> listen, i want to be optimistic new year's eve, you look great, pete's in minneapolis with a tuxedo everybody looks great. i just think it would be too cliche to think that last week marked the bottom. i think there's some hiccups in store early '19. then we'll talk about again in the spring >> we'll see i don't think we're going to have a bull market like we've had for the last six or seven years. but i think there's going to be tactical opportunities here. so you're going to have to change your style a bit. it's not going to be that buy it and just blindly hold it you have to say, listen, when things are priced into the market, that's a time to strategically allocate to equities once we start going back up again and you get some of these things, some of these concerns again, don't be afraid to take stuff off. that's the markets we're heading into >> all right we'll take a break coming up, what is in store for the market in 2019 that you might not expect traders will tell you their biggest predictions for the new year plus, it's been the two faces of f.a.n.g. this year as netflix and amazon end the year way

ahead of facebook and google so is this once-hot trade up in smoke for 2019 and later, pete says there's one stock, one stock you must own heading into this new year he will step up to the plate to give us his best pitch he's ready to do it. we're live from a very festive but soggy times square on new year's eve there's much more "fast" right after this amazon prime video is now on xfinity x1.

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investors tuning into netflix today with shares of the streaming giant jumping nearly -- and she jumped right in there >> shelly? >> there she is! >> it's new year's eve the champagne is already -- see those cups they're full all right. >> we're having a good time here >> netflix took the cake as the top performing f.a.n.g.r th stok this year. the laggards were alphabet and facebook, both ending the year in the red so we thought we would play a little game. >> we love games >> fade it or trade it >> stop for a second >> yeah? >> it's trade it or fade it. you said fade it or trade it you didn't read. >> i inverted. >> you ruined the whole game >> you're not here all the time, but when you're not, guy screws it up. let's be clear >> i'm going to get it right it's trade it or fade it are you trading or fading, pete,

facebook >> well, i own it, so i guess i'm trading it tyler, i acknowledge the idea that they are in the media it seems like once a week with some sort of new issue. all that being said, take a look at facebook right now and strip out some of the various -- okay, how about this, they have 50 billion in cash with zero debt so that alone is very impressive to me. i like what they're trying to do they just got to stay out of the negative press if they can do that, i think the stock has gotten way too cheap trade 17 p.e., strip the cash out, it's a 13 p.e this stock has gotten way too cheap, but they've got to stay out of the negative news they've been stuck in seems like since the beginning of 2018. >> is that their big risk, news? >> listen, pete and i have been on the other side of this all year because i think you sell the rifts because exactly what pete's doing, saying is the caveat there they have serious media problems not only that, they have trust issues with what's going on.

their business model is being disrupted a little bit so i'm a fade it on this one but i don't know i would wait for the rip to fade it pchbl it >> let's move to amazon. >> this one i'm trading. we're still in a market where disrupters win amazon is still just crushing it crushing it everywhere in retail walk down any street in america, every retailer is going out of business except for amazon yeah, valuation, allthese things you can say about amazon, but in this environment, disrupters win >> but in this environment, isn't valuation the problem? i don't think anybody disputes that amazon is continuing to dominate every sector that they decide to enter into, but this is a market that has been very discerning about high multiple stocks >> potentially i go back to the tactical we've come down here, what do you want to buy where are you going to get the growth in a slow-growth environment? you want to go to somebody like an amazon. >> you like the idea they may add a lot of stores to whole foods? do you care? >> no, actually, i don't particularly like that idea. i'd rather have them stay asset light.

but jeff bezos has proven to make some savvy moves. i guess i'll trust him on that one. >> who should really hate that is walmart and target and all these thousands of other people. >> grocery stores. absolutely tim, you're up trade it or fade it, netflix >> fade it i'd rather go to kabuki theater than invest in this stock. a company that continues to burn cash i thought they were supposed to get cash flow positive yes, they have a huge footprint. we know maybe they're starting to develop real content. this valuation is not easy to defend >> he's deep into kabuki theater tonight. >> a date with 180 on the charts >> not kabuki theater. >> good for tim, by the way. he was correct on facebook he's been spot on, on netflix. last quarter netflix reported a great quarter. the price action was miserable and the stocks paid the price. as we get into earnings, i think

on january 17th, this is one you can own into earnings. i don't think you'll have the same situation twice i'd rather take the other side i'd be in the trade it camp. >> all right well played. and i don't mean necessarily correctly. you played the game right. >> it's coming to me >> and the stock is alphabet >> are you a sports fan? >> i am. >> if you have a player on your team you no longer want, what do you do with him or her >> you would trade or let him or her walk >> that's why the game confuses me in my world, trade it is a bad thing. but in this world, i'm trading google or alphabet because i think it's a good thing. i understand the regulation is out there. the hammer could come down in terms of the government. i think most of it's been priced in we traded down from levels we

saw earlier in 2018. i'm inclined to trade alphabet >> basically flat this year, right? >> yeah, i tend to agree with guy on this one. i think the valuation, this is one where facebook has trouble defending the valuation. i think the valuation changes as earnings adjust. google, to me, makes a lot of sense at this valuation. >> we got to leave it there. for more on what's in store for the f.a.n.g. trade, head to tradingnation.cnbc.com you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. and here's what else is coming up on "fast. >> impossible to see the future. >> maybe not, yoda our traders are going deep into the stock market galaxy to give you their biggest predictions for 2019, and you won't believe what they're seeing. plus, pete says there's one stock that you need to own heading into the new year. he'll step up to the plate to

give us his fast pitch much more "fast money" after this break it's pretty stressful. this music is supposed to relax me, though. ♪ maybe you'd mellow out a bit if you got geico to help you with your renters insurance. oh, geico helps with renters insurance? good to know. yeah, and they could save you a lot of money. wow, suddenly i feel so relieved. you guys are fired. get to know geico and see how much you could save on renters insurance.

welcome back to "fast money. a news alert let's go to josh lipton in san francisco for the details. >> this news just crossing activision blizzard has notified the company's cfo that they to terminate mr. newman's employment for cause unrelated to the company's financial reporting or disclosure, controls, and procedure. they go on to say their cfo has been placed on a paid leave of absence pending an opportunity for him to demonstrate why cause does not exist to terminate his employment however, effective january 1s 1st -- in the event mr. newman

ceases to be their cfo, mr. dir kin wi -- durkin will assume those responsibilities a tough year for activision. >> is he a long time insider >> unfortunately, i don't know that i've reached out to the company. i got a little more background on that. if i hear back from them, i'll bring you those headlines. >> any comments? >> i think it's a reason for concern. i don't think you need to jump out and buy the stock. this company does not get enough credit for esports or live services i think this is very interesting, outside of this news >> all right let's turn back to the market. just a few hours left in 2018. time to look forward to the first big hurdle for the markets in 2019, earnings. the fate of the markets is tied, of course, to earnings growth. right now the outlook isn't too bright our own bob posani has more on that from the new york stock

exchange >> hi, tyler earnings in 2019, are they going to be up, flat, or down? what happens to markets in 2019 may depend on your outlook for earnings 2019 estimates are coming down slowly but surely from about 10% at the start of this quarter to better than 7% today 17 companies have reported earnings for the fourth quarter so far while the numbers have been good, first quarter estimates have been lower, particularly after comments from micron and federal express, who noted while the u.s. was still strong, international trends were definitely slowing unfortunately, the fate of earnings may be in the hands of very large macro issues that are notoriously difficult to model traders are weighing several major issues first k the fed avoid what some are calling a policy error that is hiking in a sloi growth environment with low inflation what about other global rate risks? the european central bank is ending stimulus. what impact will that have on european profits third, will there be clear

progress on trade talks? and finally, how much exactly is china slowing with or without tariffs imposed on it? this is hard to figure out how strategists and analysts interpret the impact on earnings determines how they feel about the market in 2019 for example, if you think earnings growth is going to be zero, you're likely to think that the markets will be dead in 2019 if you think earnings are going to be negative, you're thinking the market is going to drop even more from where it is right now. but if you think earnings will still be growing in the mid single digits, and that's where the majority of people are, then most think the markets have room to go up back to you, tyler >> all right bob, thank you very much earnings growth certainly earning its place in the panoply of things to come. where does it fit on your hierarchy of things to watch >> there's a veritable cornucopia of things to watch.

but i am concerned about earnings i think there's a group of at least strategists and analysts that are late to the party in terms of downgrading growth. you can't tell me based upon what we're hearing out of corporate insiders in terms of how they're looking at core businesses these earnings are critical for this market to assess whether we get that 7%. >> pete, what do you think jump in here >> it all comes down to china. that's what this is all hooked to the idea of no vision for the ceos over the last couple quarters trying to figure out this whole thing i actually do think we're going to see some progress i don't think we absolutely get everything we want. i think we see some progress if we get more vision, i can easily see the single digits in terms of growth, maybe better than that. that's why i remain bullish. i think the vision is going to be better than people expect it to be when we start to get the next quarter's earnings. >> you get single-digit growth,

guys, and you get a 2% dividend. there you're at 10%. >> and you have a ten-year below three. at these levels, that starts to make sense there are a lot of things to worry about, but at these levels, we've priced in an awful lot of things. i agree with pete. when we look at what's going on with earnings, the bar is pretty low coming into this quarter fedex probably lowered the bar a lot. it doesn't have to be that great. it just needs to be incrementally better >> i see your panoply, your cornucopia, and i'm going to throw in an umbrage. i don't know what letter it starte starts with, but i take umbrage with the fact this fed could be making a mistake i would submit this fed is cleaning up the mistakes of the last ten years, but that's me. >> wow praise for the fed it's a new year. >> this fed, this fed. this guy, j.p., my man >> there were a lot of people, weren't there, who in the middle

of quantitative easing, in the middle of zero interest rates, were saying this is irresponsible, it is undermining the currency -- >> including some people in washington >> a lot of them in washington all right. let's move on. rough 2018 the big banks are the first group to report the aforementioned earnings in 2019. there is one name traders are making a big bet on. mike koh is in san francisco with the options action. >> and underdressed, by the way. >> where's your tux, mike? >> you all look great, but typically i'm thinking black tie starting around 6:00 p.m., it'll be 6:00 p.m. for you when the show ends. but here it's only 3:00. it's a little early for the tux. >> he's a little defensive >> you'll be asleep at 9:00. the ball drops at 9:00 out there. that's what you have to look forward to, right? >> well, that's true i get up a little earlier tomorrow as well but you know, so we were looking at u.s. bank corp.

traded about three times the average daily options volume today. that was not the only unusual thing. the other thing that was quite unusual here was that we saw a big purchase of january 2021, 47 1/2 calls, somebody paid $5.30 for 1300 of those. this is a stock that's trading about 45 bucks that's about 12% per share of the current stock price. they're making a bullish bet obviously and giving it a long time to play out, that the stock is going to be up at least 17% that's how high it would have to be just for those calls to break even and presumably they're betting it would be up considerably more than that. again, this isn't specifically about the upcoming bank earnings season this is really a longer term play and the sharp decline we've seen in some of these names, they might actually make up those gains, but it might take some time for them to accomplish that >> all right, mike thank you very much. looks so lovely out there compared to times square, where it's pouring happy new year and for more options action, check out the full show friday

at 5:30 p.m. eastern time. that would be 2:30 >> mom always said you could never be overdressed, but you could be underdressed. >> there we go >> it's early for mike >> it's nice he came on with us. >> i'm just kidding. health care the best performing sector this year, but the stock right here has sat out the rally. pete says it's about to join the party. he's going to give us his healthy 2019 fast pitch. plus, speaking of parties, one of the biggest parties in times square is happening at, yes, applebee's. we'll tell you how the casual dining restaurant is capitalizing on the hearty consumer and there's just 6 1/2 hours to go until the ball drops in times square on this rainy new ar eig nht much more fast money coming right back see that's funny, i thought you traded options. i'm not really a wall street guy. what's the hesitation? eh, it just feels too complicated, you know? well sure, at first, but jj can help you with that. jj, will you break it down for this gentleman? hey, ian. you know, at td ameritrade, we can walk you

through your options trades step by step until you're comfortable. i could be up for that. that's taking options trading from wall st. to main st. hey guys, wanna play some pool? eh, i'm not really a pool guy. what's the hesitation? it's just complicated. step-by-step options trading support from td ameritrade

welcome back to "fast money" for a new year's eve night health care feeling good this year, top sector with names like pfizer and merck tracking double-digit gains let's head to the gopher state, where pete has a fast pitch on one health care stock that sat out this year's rally. who is it? >> well, it really sat out because of the fact of what happened in december i'm talking about johnson & johnson. this is a stock that was actually performing relatively well then had that very, very sharp drop because of the issues, the accusations about asbestos now, alex gorsky came on and talked with jim cramer, very,

very upfront, the day all this news broke, and described exactly what they do and how they go through the process. i think that was very encouraging. the stock obviously took a really big hit i mean t literally dropped down towards the 200-day moving average. that's where it's holding right now. when i look at the fundamental story of what's going on here, this is a company that gives you nearly a 3% dividend, free cash flow is absolutely outstanding when you look at the balance sheet, that looks strong as well there's a lot of different fundamental parts of this story that make sense. should it have gotten sold off $50 billion worth of market cap? i'm not so sure about that so i think it is creating an opportunity. sometimes you've got to have a little bit of guts to jump into something like this, but i think what we've seen now is any of the negativity of what was attached to there has been priced in. all of the positives have been pushed out to the side the very last thing is, when you look at growth, their pipeline, their late-stage pipeline is

extraordinarily strong 50% of the revenues are coming from the pharmaceutical side of this company it's three different legs that actually work johnson & johnson. i like what they sit at right now. i think the p.e. is really appetizing it's well under 20 it's gotten a big, huge hit, but we'll have to see going forward. can they show the earnings growth, the revenue growth that was one area where they had been stumbling i think that's something that this year they started to improve on very, very rapidly. >> huge hit, trouble in the courts, guy. >> i happen to agree with pete, but i'll play devil's advocate do you think it's better to wait for earnings on january 22nd or do you think there's a chance you rally into it and you might miss the move? >> well, that's a great question whether or not you want -- you e kn -- you know, obviously this sharp drop had nothing to do with expectations. it was all to do with that asbestos i think they've addressed that enough if you're confident enough in what they have been doing, and i am, i think this is a company you'd want to own going into the earnings >> all right let's vote

time to see whether you're buying pete's pitch on j&j tim, you go first. >> i'm a buyer one more picture in 2018 my final one >> bk? >> winner, winner, chicken dinner i'm a buyer too. well done. >> two out of three. hat trick or not >> it's a hat trick. >> bye, bye, bye >> you got to like jmn&j >> are you at home voting for pete's pitch head to twitter to help pete end his year on a high note. coming up, one of the country's biggest restaurant chains throws its bonanza here in times square you won't believe what it costs to get a table we're live from new york city, new year's eve isesn't get any better than th more "fast money" coming right up

it's about to get even more fun here on "fast money. if you're looking for shelter and a good time amid the new year's eve chaos in times square tonight, you can still head to applebee's new york is home to the world's largest applebee's here in times square it's throwing its infamous annual new year's eve party tonight. ceo of apple metro, which operates the applebee's chain, in the new york area this is a huge night for you >> it sure is. we work on it all year long.

>> when do people start booking? >> this past summer. september, october like airline prices, as you get closer, the price goes up. >> you charge a cover? what do you do >> it's all inclusive. it started at $375 per person. >> whoa. >> that's all top-shelf liquor, all you can eat, all you can drink, three bands here at 42nd street, we have two bands. deejays, sorry different floors, different music, different environment >> another one on 50th street. i've been to that one. that's fantastic how's business overall >> business overall this year of '18 was good, but there's huge headwinds for '19. >> what are they >> well, let's start with labor. cost of labor. in new york, we're blessed because we don't have a labor shortage but go to north dakota, go to nebraska, go to areas -- i'm a director of an oil field services company we can't get drivers to come down out of the oil fields anymore. we're paying bonuses just to sign on. you got to stay on for six

months though. so labor, just finding people. food supply, commodities, markets. i think proteins, chicken, beef, fish, go up next year. and then there's the consumer. the euphoria of the tax cuts this year a waning >> that's not what we're hearing. that's interesting so you think the consumer is under pressure i thi >> i think the consumer is beginning to i can tell you first hand in this part of the country, they're under. >> how price sensitive are your consumers? you're right in the center of middle market. >> yeah. so let me give it to you this way. we do about 200,000 meals a week here in new york city. if we go from 15.99 to 16.05, the letters come in like crazy >> you're kidding. people are that price sensitive? >> right here in new york city

>> who are you competing with? you're not competing with mechanic donald's. you're probably not competing with the crazy burger place that josh brown goes to all the time. what's the place that i worked you know what i'm talking about? >> oh, shake shack >> so who are you competing with >> well, guy, i have a different view of the world. i'm competing with anyone who sells food you don't very well stop and get a hot dog and come up to an applebee's and eat if you're on your way and i was in another industry years ago, invited to the executive bank board meeting, and i love sausage and pepper i stopped on the way and had sausage and pepper when i got there, they said, well, aren't you going to eat? i said, no, i'm on a diet. >> you're in good shape. >> i was on a diet then, still on a diet now. >> thank you so much should you bet on the consumer in 2019, or is that play over? >> tell you what, going into the fourth quarter, at least in the middle, we saw retail stocks, discretionary, you name it,

under an enormous amount of pressure if you look at the fast, casual restaurants, they were very defensive. starbucks, mcdonald's, i think those are names you continue to stay long. >> all right we'll take a break coming up, the traders will give you their biggest market predictions for 2019 plus, we'll take a look back at what a year it was right here on "fast money," we're live at the nasdaq market site in times square yowa to du ntgoown there later, guys let's go come on. much more still coming up. (drumsticks clatter)

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one more time, there it is welcome back to "fast money. it's the countdown to midnight we're getting ready to leave 2018 behind. none too soon for a lot of peop people so in honor of the annual holiday, our traders are bringing you their top market predictions for 2019 pete, let's kick it off with you. your prediction for the new year >> yeah, tyler, i think that there's going to be some great opportunities within technology. i think you always have to be very stock specific. so i'll give you a couple different names. i think nvidia is one of those names. it was trading nearly $300 a share. it's down to 133 now it trades actually at what looks like a great p.e. when you talk about under 20. somewhere around 17 or 18 or something like that. then you look at what their balance sheet looks like in terms of cash versus debt. this is one of those companies that everybody loved in the 300. they hit it here at 133. i think that's a mistake

this is the time to own it there are names like adobe and salesforce as well that are well off their highs that create opportunity. they have such incredible growth, and yet they've been sold off as much as they have. that has created opportunity so i think specific names within technology >> one chair for technology. tim? >> nice job, pete. i think it's not terribly controversial to say that oil prices will be up 20% from these levels in 2019 the reason is relatively simple. if you believe we're not going to be contracting gdp growth and aggregate demand in oil, it's still going to be incrementally 2% to 3% i think the dollar actually weakens. growth differentials around the world are in favor of the dollar becoming a weaker play 20% gets you back to $65 on brent. it's a great trade >> bk, what do you see next year >> that's a perfect segue for me in 2018, i said the dollar is the new vi whicx. a lot of people don't like the dollar, but you're going to have to talk about it in 2019 it's going to be a war

>> we're all getting older you know what that means big cap pharma is going to continue to perform. it's going to be a continued theme this year. pfizer, bristol, that'll get you done >> there you go. big cap pharma it was a wild year for the markets and an even wilder one here on "fast money. it's only proper that as 2018 draws to a close, we take a minute to look back at some of "fast money's" greatest moments of 2018. >> "fast money" starts right now live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york's times square >> if you're looking downstream, if you look at every -- >> it's absurd >> put them up >> put them up >> you're wrong. >> i don't like your shirt, and i don't like your tie. i don't like you at all. >> are you unponytailed? this could be tv history >> actually, i am. i'll give you a little tease >> we got a smile out of dan today. [ cheers and applause nice job >> i think it makes for a good ceo and credibility, makes for

little hearts and happy investors. >> come on over, carter. >> you didn't even put it up to a vote >> why should i? i'm in charge. carter comes over. carter come on over to the desk. come on over, carter dan's not coming over. >> fix this up a little bit. how's that >> i get it. i took calculus, causation >> you did it's algebra >> b.k. hasn't bought a pony in a long time. >> i have a whole collection there's nothing left to buy. >> you know what the p.e. is right now? >> wrong w-r-o-n-g, wrong >> i love it it's a kaleidoscope. >> i have same setup in my dorm room, actually >> tim's pitch was a home run on the desk, but twitter says unbreak my heart more than 65% of people voting no 75% said no.

c ken, the twitter fans are not buying your pitch? >> i've had my heartbroken a lot of times it always heals. >> tony braxton is safe. she will try and unbreak pete's heart. america is not buying dan's pitch for target at this point >> they didn't even load up the other song, the winner song. i wantn to ve i want to be very clear about that >> there's pete. >> i'm throwing a scrooge at guy. sorry, buddy >> first time i realized pete's bald >> i do this in central park on the weekends, by the way >> i'm not asking you. >> too late. >> she asks the questions around here >> this is not a democracy we're just living in melissa's world. >> tell the audience >> this was awesome. >> crazy, right? >> are we on air right now wait >> guy, your favorite "fast money" memory of the year. >> obviously having you host you did an amazing job but each night we get to be with

you folks. i've made great friends over 12 years. january 8th is 12 years on this show >> whoa, congratulations >> for me it's an honor to be with everybody thanks for another great year. >> it is great to be with you guys really, it's fun >> thank you >> you guys pick it up >> where we going afterwards >> applebee's. where do y tnkouhi we're going up next, final trades for you. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ the difference between possible and impossible? it's a person who believes they can, surrounded and supported by others - by us - who believe it, too u.s. bank - the power of possible. your but as you get older,hing. it naturally begins to change, causing a lack of sharpness, or even trouble with recall.

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we have broken out the champagne. happy new year, guys fantastic. pete, happy new year's to you. >> let her rip >> let's bring the answer to our twitter poll what we get? let's hear that tech know version of "unbreak my heart." pete, you struck out >> there you go. that's the way it goes that's a fitting end to 2018 >> final trades. you want to go first >> no, he should probably go first. >> i think fedex was such a bad story in 2018. time to kick it off in 2019. fdx is how you spell it. >> what do you got >> if you're a millennial, you want to buy some bitcoin for that currency war. i know it's down i know it's been a tough year. it's going to cycle back up. >> can you talk? >> of course i can but pete is in the middle. >> pete, do you have one >> no, they didn't give me one that's all right >> it's all good >> say hi to your family happy new year >> pfizer because clearly that's

what i need on this new year's eve. thank you. >> i don't know what you mean by that >> i don't know what he means by that >> catch "fast money" again 5:00 p.m. eastern on wednesday. meantime, happy new year, everod happy new everybody. jim cramer coming right along. see you next year. my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica my job's not just to entertain you but to educate and teach call me or tweet me @jimcramer every night i come out for two big reasons. first, i like the attention. but the second most important