that won't get next week's pay or the following week's pay, i think if you ever really looked at those people i think they would say mr. president, keep going. this is far more important i want to thank you all and we'll see you soon they will be working very hard over the weekend thank you very much. thank you. >> you have been listening to president trump talking about what he called a productive meeting. still no deal in sight trump said the shutdown could last for months or years trump said he did say that people talking about that. as far as we are concerned and wall street is concerned on trade he did say we are doing very well in our negotiations with china, but you never know

with the deal he also said we are collecting billions of dollars in tariffs it is the sense that there wasn't a lot of give >> the market is celebrating, a double dose of good news completely changing its tune welcome to the closing bell. i'm sara we are all over this market rally which is gaining steam into the close a 4% gain for the nasdaq and let's get more on some of the news headlines >> it was yet another wide ranging marathon news conference by president trump you got a sense of how interconnected how all of these issues are for him the government funding site, immigration, trade, all of them sort of racked up together in

this news conference i think one of the most important things is that he confirmed this shutdown could last for years he prepared for that to take place. here is wra he said. >> you said in the meeting this is him quoting you i want to check that the shutdown could go on for months or even a year or longer did you say that -- >> i did >> is that your -- >> i did say that. absolutely i did say that. i don't think it will but i am prepared i think i can speak for republicans in the house and republicans in the senate. they feel very strongly about having a safe country and having a border that makes sense. >> guys, there has been so much back and forth in the shutdown that i want to point out that the steel slats that the president spoke about during that news conference, those would actually be allowed under the language originally passed by the senate, under the language passed by the house the language in the text

prohibits concrete barriers. talking about steel slats, steel barriers as stronger and concrete ones. that's really important. i think that what you're talking about here now is not just what does the structure look like but it is the fact that it is adisagreement between republicans, trump republicans and democrats. because it is a philosophical fight that is why both sides are so hunkered down that is why it has been so difficult for them to reach any type of resolution, guys >> i thought his comment on apple was also noticeable. the attitude there was sort of apple is up big since my election i'm friendly with tim cook but it didn't sound like he was under any further pressure to make a deal with china looking at the apple warning is further confirmation that china is feeling it worse than we are. >> he said he encouraged cook to

build his products here in america, that that is the ultimate goal of the president's trade policy, his trade stance is to get more things to come to this country he feels at least for the time being that that is working and that the tariffs are an important piece of leverage that he has in those negotiations >> thank you for summing it up >> it is up 33 since 2016. >> stocks mean while, check out this rally a big rebound after stronger than expected jobs reports and comments from powell taking a look at the major averages, strongly jumping here. everyone is higher in the s and p 500. materials, communication services all up. utilities, the defensive are all lagging but still green. the russell 2000 up 3.6% the celebration, mike, as i

mentioned, beyond jobs had to do with the big change in tone especially when it came to the balance sheet. listen to what he said today versus what he said just two and a half weeks ago >> we don't believe that in the fourth quarter last year i'll say again, if we reached a different conclusion we couldn't hesitate if we came to the view that the normalization plan or any other aspect was normal we wouldn't hesitate to make a change. >> we thought about how to normalize policy and that came that we would effectively have the balance sheet run off on automatic pilot and use monetary policy to adjust to incoming data i think it has been a good decision >> so me that's biggest change >> yes >> from automatic pilot on the

balance sheet to saying we won't hesitate to make a change, that's a policy change >> trying to convey patience and flexibility obviously, now the market was trying to accelerate higher when he was stepping back from the idea. when he started emphasizing good economic conditions. >> the market is clearly focused. it means we have to be focused more on the downside >> and again, on this point he sounded completely different from two weeks ago listen >> i think the markets are pricing in downside risks is what i think they are doing. they are obviously well ahead of the data markets are expressing concerns, again, about global growth in particular i think it's becoming the main focus and trade negotiations which are related to that. we are listening carefully to that we are listening sensitively to the message that markets are

sending and we are going to be taking those downside risks into account as we make policies going forward. >> financial market volatility has increased over the past couple of months overall financial conditions have tightened they have become less supportive of growth. in our view they have not altered the outlook. >> again, what a star contrast it feels like he really did get the message. credit spreads crept getting higher the fed is saying the markets are doing some of the work we intended to do

it is emphasizing how many more hikes we can get in. we are kind of emphasizing wait and see. >> there was a big shift about the language and the outlook there. >> with the muted inflations we have seen coming in we will be patient as we watch to see how the economy evolves. >> it will be strong enough that unemployment will drop further >> flelet's bring in steve how cig nif kasignificant of a all of this? >> i think a big one on the first one, the balance sheet the policy goes back to june,

2017 and survived and was affirmed by the current chairman that policy says that the fed will not -- does not anticipate changing the balance sheet reduction until it has begun to reduce interest rates. the reasoning behind that is they didn't want to have two variables moving at once they didn't want to adjust the balance sheet and rate sheet at the same time. it is the main instrument of monetary policy. it is unclear of whether or not it will amount to a change in policy there is the language from the statement. if it were to warrant a sizable reduction in the committee's target a lot said it means we won't change until we get down to zero there seems to be a new sort of overlay of a policy on top of

that i'm a little less convinced it was a big clahange on the marke or on interest rates i will say he is now calling inflation muted. it gives him the rhetorical flexibility to be more flexible on interest rates. i sort of always thought they were going to be flexible any waich way. i never took it as a promise and i also thought that hey, if the economic data were to be negative that the fed would back off on the rates anyway. >> and don't you think that's how the committee has felt they are saying the consensus is true we are not putting it on the schedule >> i don't think it was the point. the point was inflation expectations were collapsing and the feds seem to be missing that >> collapsing. yeah i got this you have another number? >> going down. going down >> okay. >> but i think it's -- but i

think it's an important point you make how does the fed look at this? i think they do it in that call it to a little bit above 2 to be within the target of the goals i think you raise an important point. it got there very quickly. in terms of the current level i wouldn't say they had collapsed to that level. i think it's an important distinction to make. you know, on rates, look, the fed has a problem. the problem is that the market sees that two, three, four number of hikes in the forecast as a promise i think there's two things going on there i'm especially interested in you. the way the fed says something and markets availability to hear it right? some times the market doesn't want to hear anything. they just don't listen some times the fed doesn't communicate it correctly >> yeah. i agree with you on all of that.

certainly markets move faster than central bank messaging. i also think it's in the habit of saying that's lot of things that are uncertain from trade and everything else. doesn't it seem like it could solve some of our problems that's why they emphasize that so much. >> yeah. there's another point. there's real talk of the fed making a mistake that there was some notion whether it was correct or not >> sure. >> they got that they were determined to get back to normal on balance sheet and interest rates. we are seeing a little bit of steam come off of that situation. the fed wasn't really responding to it. they were going to raise rates no matter what into that that's the message the market got. that's the big feel. >> i think that's right. if if you think about that what did the fed do they backed off. eventually did exactly what they wanted to do anyway.

they delayed it all by a bit that's one of the things that's happening. there is one thing you bring up. that middle sound bite you had, we candy se dissect it two ways you can see it's critical in terms of wait a second we don't have the data. it is one of the ways that i heard it >> you can interpret it as the market sees something further into the future. >> yes >> agree >> that we don't see you can do either way on it. >> all right looks like we'll see if they can bridge this gap. thanks we'll see you later on this hour for the interview with kevin

hassett. let's talk more about the reaction hello to you all we got this to say what if we got today's job number you had this kind of combination of, you know, confirmation and then powell's ability to massage the message. >> we have had a few building this message starting with john williams right before the holidays after the press conference and we have had a couple of them adding to that message of flexibility and patience and not down playing the message from the market saying the markets might be seeing something that we are not. if it materializes we will recalibrate accordingly. it was a nice one-two punch

between the employment report and powell this morning. >> so did powell say the right script for what investors were hoping for >> i think there was less of a change in policy and change in communication. a little more knowledgement of downside risks >> that is policy when you look at the balance sheet >> one thing i think that's interesting to mention as well whether it's communication or policies, also the magnitude of the moves over the past two and a half weeks there is not a fundamental reason for those moves i think that's what the fed believes the moves in and of themselves may alter the fundamentals we did have a big move down that will effect inflation. less pressure and we did see a big move down in equity markets that may effect confidence even further. it was an acknowledgment

>> and so rick, just assess for us how the bond market is incorporates what powell said today. it was the fact that the jobs market wran it afterwards. with respect to how much of the stock market had to do i can say but i can say this i think that out of the three people on that stage two former and one current, i think that the market was pretty happy of j. powell being in the relationship role. powell is much more of a give and take person. words can come out and they will

be absolutely perfect. every answer of this human being in a press conference will be perfect when the whole world has seen every sill ball it is more in modelling and less in feeling out what's out there it doesn't quote like reading all of these crazy equations he is a real guy he is going to back and forth with the markets they will take what he has to say. that's the way it has got to be moving forward there will not be a stencil that will be without lots of vibrations along the way >> so if the big fear was that

the fed was making a mistake how much of a risk does it take out of the market and are you telling investors to be buyers >> it does take an important risk previously we expected two rate hikes this year. the risk was tilted to the upside the data, market moves have changed our view as well as the communication today. we now expect one rate hike at most what that means for us is fixed income is a little bit more interesting than it has been in a long time. a lot of pain is probably behind us i think the market was

responding to real profit warnings if you look there it has come down quite a lot. how much does that feed into the real economy not yet, clearly, but if we see that greater reluctance to in s invest >> yeah. one reason people were so spooked by apple >> exactly >> thank you, guys good exchange with the dow up more than 700 points. >> coming up more on this big wall street rally. we'll speak with richard fisher about the remarks today and the feds policy going ahead. and apple getting back some ground following yesterday's big plunge the tech giant may have deeper issues beyond china. we'll discuss that next. dow is up 745 points don't go away.

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revenues president trump addressed that apple's downturn moments ago >> apple makes the product in china. i told tim cook who is a friend of mine, make your product in the united states. build those big beautiful plants that go on for miles it seems. build those plants in the united states i like that even better. china is the biggest beneficiary of apple, more than us. >> we reduced the plult pistol to 160 is there a risk that it goes

further down it depends what is the nature of that are chinese iphone users simply walking away because it is too expensive? if it's the latter you are looking at a secular declining that could take years. they traded at some of it. we don't know what that answer is there is still a more downside here is that the right way to think about this but with a large installedbase

>> happens apple l is microsoft and intell together. and really the point of that being yes, the install base is insaturated. there is a big potential and the silver lining was 20% services growth i think there's room for them to better gross margin expansion as we go forward. i think it is to 180 and 185 over the next 12 months. >> you know, when the president

spoke about apple he said that the ultimate goal here is to get companies to man fact clur in the united states. is that possible >> not in my opinion if you think about what they make about 2 to 3% so maybe china is generating 3 to 4% of those apple revenues in terms of their contribution. if you look at it as a percent of revenue it is 10 to 12% range. therefore, you know, number one i don't think it's critical that apple does produce phones in the united states in terms of boosting the economy and number two, you know, it's just not really very realistic because the supply chain has moved to the eastern side of the world. it would be a massive effort to not only bring that supply chain back but also the knowledge si

oesh soeshuat -- associated have moved to the eastern side of the world as well >> thank you for joining us with the debate there on what to do with apple we are 34 minutes away from the closing bell we have still got a big rally. the dow is up. it is good for 29 of the 30 are higher lead by intell, caterpillar and boeing which have been beaten up. a lot of reversal. >> the dow has only got 24 points more than it lost yesterday. we'll see -- >> keeping it in perspective >> council of economic advisers joining us live to discuss today's jobs number anthe d fed and trade with china stick around we'll be right back. medicare is great, but it doesn't cover everything - only about 80% of your part b medicare costs,

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cnbc news update with sue herrera. >> despite what president trump called a productive meeting there is no agreement to end the government shutdown. the two sides will stay at it over the weekend mitch mcconnell says he will meet with officials including vice president pence and kushner as well as congressional leaders to try to reach a deal to reopen the government the new house of representatives announcing its first bill, hr1.

it includes a requirement to disclose ten years of tax returns. it is unlikely to be taken up by the republican lead senate three inmates at a prison in north carolina being honored for saving their supervisor. they were picking up trash and saw their supervisor stumbling they rushed to him, called 911 and he is now recovering bad weather causing havoc on the roads in wichita falls, texas. police responding to 85 car accidents in the past 24 hours you are up to date that's the news update i'll see you in an hour. >> all right see you soon thank you. we have about 28 and a half minutes left markets still holding on let's look at the biggest movers of the day seema is here. we'll start with you >> still a 3% gain for the dow

leading the index higher as shares of boeing up nearly 5%. moving on significant volume here a convergence of good news. it is a move in energies up 6% on track far five day winning streak back to you. >> thank you let's send it up down to courtney at the nasdaq >> exactly to say that is to say something, right? the s&p is up more than 3% and nasdaq is doing betterthan tha

it is to do an exact 180 from the losses yesterday we have them leading the way on the nasdaq it is applied materials and video. they are also sharply higher it is as mauuch gains as losses. back over to you >> the stuff that lead us down

is leading us back up today. political concerns have sent the market on a wild ride and one more factor could inject for volatility >> new york times will be with us to share some take aways from the big event. aswe head to break here is a look at the s & p 500 heat map stocks finishing off the week on a high note. by the way, all of the major averages are higher for the week with the s and p suffering a gain of 1.5% if these levels hold we'll be right back. alerts -- wouldn't you like one from the market

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>> today follows the 160 point plunge is this cause for investors to worry or keep worrying james is here and ed from guys, good to see you both ed, on the one hand i look at the rally and say it is very positive credit markets are also participating. we also kind of broke above levels that contained the rallies right after christmas. on the other you have the

rallies. how should we think about today's action and the kind of trend we are in? >> the last point you made is the most important thing to remember now if you get a couple of days of strong rallies we don't necessarily feel the need to chase them on average even a bare market you have a 14% rally as the biggest rally. this could go on far little while longer the primary trend could still be down what we would want to see is sustained multiple days in a row of this kind of strong breadth action today is a good sign it is too early to say that the worst is over. >> what about the fundamentals here changing his tune, promising patients, wasn't that a big risk factor >> it was. december 18th the market was 13% off its high the next day was the fed

meeting. it fell to 20% off of its high essentially today it took back and we are down 13%. so now we can go back to all of the other issues we had before the fed. that was the slowing global growth and political chaos, trade wars and earnings are slowing quite a bit. fourth quarter will come in okay the fourth quarter is down almost 3.5% growth it is less than 5% for the second quarter it is not what you want to see if we will do that market. we are getting down to almost the inflation right now. it could be a real problem going forbar forward. we could go back to all of the other things that got us down. they don't look like they will get resolved any time soon >> and chairman powell mentioned 2016 as something that maybe resembled the current environment. we also had an earnings recession that year.

the markets at least the way i look at it had a some what similar set up in terms of negative sentiment and things like that. how would you read that comparison at this point >> i think it is a fairly appropriate one. the market doesn't repeat itself it won't be a perfect comparison you did get a 13% rally in late 15 and you plunged to the bare market lows in february of 2016 with an earnings recession along the way. you didn't have an economic recession in the u.s when you don't have an economic recession the climbs tend to be around 20 to 25% peak to trough. it is another analogy to think there's a little more to go on 2 downside we'll have to go through some tough downside earnings revisions. if we have mildly negative earnings and we can pick up from

there the market should start to price in better news adds we move into the second and maybe third quarter. >> all right got to be patient. it will be a 3% rally that has not given an all clear thanks a lot for your time today. >> thank you >> i wonder if today's really strong jobs report takes any of the negativity out of earnings season companies are hiring it was the best hiring in ten months >> yes as long as it doesn't cost them more i think it interrupts that store rir line that it's nothing but slowdowns. >> it's not like they are bracing for recession. they are still hiring. >> absolutely. it will be an interesting month. let's see. we have 19 minutes left before the bell we are holding onto most of those. nasdaq all up more than 10% as is the russell 2000. economic advisers will be

joining us weighing in on stocks soaring and much me.or closing bell back after a break. dow is up 700.

nasdaq is up more 4% it lost more than 3% s&p up 3.3%. it tallies up to gains for this very volatile training week. >> exactly some consider it a signal. we'll see if it holds up when we come back council of economic advisers will join us his comments on the fed and market lally coming up next. at leaf blowers. bed [beep] you should be mad your neighbor always wants to hang out. and you should be mad your smart fridge is unnecessarily complicated. but you're not mad, because you have e*trade which isn't complicated. their tools make trading quicker and simpler. so you can take on the markets with confidence. don't get mad. get e*trade and start trading today.

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that simplify your experience. my name is mike, i'm in product development at comcast. we're working to make things simple, easy and awesome. excellents from j. powell. let's head over to atlanta we will be speaking with the council of economic advisers over do you. >> thanks. you have about 40 minutes here thanks for joining us. >> great to be here. >> so you had said in the last day or so that there were many companies like apple that could be hurt because of these larry kudlow came out and said

there aren't that many companies. are you on different pages here? >> not at all. the fact is it could happen in an interview that there was sort of a second half of a sentence which i really should have added you have to remember to put it in context that the chinese share is only about 1.7% even if chinese profits went to 0 which no one expects they will do that, it would be possible next year we would be revising up earnings estimate >> broadly though, do you see trade tensions do you have an aggressive 3% gdp forecast for the u.s. this year which is high relative to the street do you see these trade tensions from growth this year? >> i think the strong growth we had this year basically happened

while the trade tensions were rising the tariffs were being put in place and so on. i think looking ahead to this year what we expect is that we are going to as we have with the new nafta and korea, conversations with europe, with the chinese we'll move forward and reduce tensions throughout the year i think because the uncertainty about our trade process was a negative it should make you seem more confident >> i welcome your optimism i think markets also seem to be inclined to be the worst here. >> if we don't make positive progress and reducing that it would subtract from growth, yes. >> let me talk about where the market and administration are in different pages here it comes to capital investment i know you gave a speech here

with words like we are fot going to do that here there has been a decline in business investment that has made some skeptical. two thing, one is that we are not getting the capital investment and the second is that this year we are not going to see the better growth that we got from the tax cuts last year in either earnings or the economy. >> right i think the way to think about it is suppose that what you're doing every year is you're buying enough new machines if you're running a plant to replace wear and tear. the plant isn't really growing, right? so that was pretty much the world that we are in when president trump was elected that there was more depreciation it was actually flat to slightly down suppose you go from doing that to buying a whole new plant this

year than now all of sudden we have two and we have a lot more output suppose you buy another one next year at that point since we bought a plant this year you would say investment is flat you would add three if you bought one this year so what should happen after a tax reform is investment should jump up and it should grow back at trend from that higher level. so we expected forever and ever investment would go up and return to trend and while it is doing that it will continue to grow over the next decade. the presentation i just made here at these meetings showed a bunch of slides that showed that the investment spike predicted almost exactly at the scale we predicted. >> if you look at what the market seems to be forecasting here it is maybe a recession is the market missing this story about the continuing benefits of

the tax cuts this year >> the markets are a very smart thing. that's lot of stuff going on with markets for sure. so, you know, it could be that our story for why the market did something is completely wrong. the market is very smart but the fact is when you look at the core data, the gdp ain the fourt quarter they have it and we have just had about the strongest jobs report with the big upper divisions to previous months we are heading in with a massive amount of momentum and tax cuts which you can find at the cea web site that showed that tax cuts worked just the way they said they would. last year you and i talked about

it >> do we stop on a dime? can you go to 3 to below 2 my experience is that it doesn't happen that way. there were slopes to these things you don't go from 300,000 to negative job growth or from 3,000,000 to 100,000 do you think the market is overdoing it >> there is a big literature on this one of the things that has been shown that definitely got some problem markets is the yield curve. when it inverts it is usually a sign there's a recession coming. right now i think the yield curve is a difficult signal to

read because the back ends of the curve is being impacted and so on. so for me i think the only indicator is in some sense a little bit obscured. so i think that if a recession comes i'm not sure the yield curve will signal the way it has in the past. >> back to you >> thank you >> coming up next we are back with the closing count down. ny ny it's them, calling us. it's going to be a week before they can get through on these roads shhh, sorry, i didn't catch that. i said ask how soon they can be here not you. right now? what's now? he says they're surveying our property now they're probably at the wrong house i don't see any hovering his name is hovering?

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don't get mad. get e*trade, dawg. >> all of the major indexes close to the highs for the day tent tifrly we have a strong jobs report. and that was when the rallies caught fire. we are due up close to 2% for the nasdaq more than that in the volatility index has retreated to down below 22 it was well above the mid-20s coming into this week. a lot of relaxation and from low

set. >> speaking of volatility these moves we have seen underscores this idea that it has not abated you take a look. it is down 3% yesterday and up 4% today a lot of talk about this risk that was certainly evident the dollar is down rates also moving to the upside. that is what helped financials outperform tech leading the charge today thanks to apple. >> the market did relax. it was very clinched up going into these news events it doesn't seem like we escaped this kind of slowdown talk or slowdown vigil >> those fears have not gone away we have services coming out on monday it will certainly be watched yes. powell knowledged those external global risks i think that is what the market really liked aside from that a couple of

upgrades today intel, a positive note on marriott >> trying to get aggressive. thank you very much. dow is going down about a 750 point gain the s & p 500 up 84. ringing the bell here is alliance up at the nasdaq. second hour of closing bell begins now >> and welcome to the closing well i'm sara eisen mike is rejoing me in just a moment let's take a look at how we finished the day and week on wall street. a 742 moipoint rally. up 3.3%. s and p 500 going out with 3.4%. technology in the lead really reflective check out that gain.

4.25% higher best day for socks since december 26th. not that long ago. plus are apple's days as the did he recalling of wall street over we'll discuss that question and which could become the new favorite for investors coming up later in the show. first let's dig into this massive rally that we saw on wall street. courtney is at the nasdaq. let's start with you and the celebration we had today >> yes factors at play today. stronger than expected jobs report it is all contributing to the gains we saw across the board. this is evident across that. the big banks and regionals out performed today. the biggest percentage gainers for the week goldman sachs which was the worst performing dow in

2018 making up some of those losses up 7% exxon mobile and ibm next week the focus will turn to trade talks and a number of companies including the consumer side of things back to you. >> all right thank you very much. the nasdaq really stood out today as a leader even as it lead to the downside going into today. we have those details. >> hi. the nasdaq surging more than 4.2% that is almost a full percentage point strangonger than we saw. it is out of that bare market territory and many are the names that are moving higher here today. the faang trade working again today. apple we have talked about it and it is worth mentioning again. not quite making up for the losses but higher by 4.25%

those are among the top performers today also knocking on a 5.5% on top of that 21% gain yesterday it would be acquire bid bristol myers. look at some of these chinese internet stocks. we'll begin discussions about trade in china next week >> courtney, the nasdaq up 2.3%. the s & p 500 almost up 1.8% overall a good week. that means we are solidly green for the new year >> it seemed as if today was a little bit of permission for

investors to do some of that jan rebuilding of risk but it's not clear if this is much more than an extended snap back. we have to see >> let's talk about what to do next jeff from raymond james. so jeff, the numbers were really strong today on the job market for the year, for the month. wages up 3.2%. jay powell signalled flexibility and flexibility on the balance sheet. this is a sort of yesterday was a double whammy of bad news. today was a double dose of good news >> the trade gate, if you will allow me to use that term, i think that is maybe a solution to the china trade gate situation. you also had hedge funds selling, liquidations. you had etf liquidation.

you had mutual fund redemptions. those i talked to, they were gone for about the entire month of december. the sellers were selling into a vacuum that vacuum got filled up today as a matter of fact. usually when you get big movers like this on the upside and downside you're either near a top or near a bottom after a near 20% decline i think we are at a bottom obviously the market had been tensed up in advance of the jobs number and powells public remarks. here is is some of what he said. >> we will be prepared to adjust policy quickly and effectively and use all of our tools to support the economy should it be appropriate to keep the labor market strong and keep inflation near 2%.

>> so dave, obviously the market came into today saturated with this story in its head about a slowdown and earnings warnings so was this from powell enough to kind of set some of that aside to think that the feds listening to the markets >> well, i think it sounded like a guy that doesn't want to be responsible for a recession. i think that, you know, i talk to banks all of the time no bank was telling me the rate increases are impacting lone demand or loan quality the fact that the market is up or down a lot because rates have gone up makes no sense in the sense of what's happened.

>> there isn't real big surprise maybe apple was a little bit i think the market is trying to figure that out. i think the goal is to, you know, especially near year end is to take profits and we'll see what happened. >> is it not the trade war which apple reminded us of this week >> well, i think it's -- what i would say is that we are no longer the only and most important economy in the world i have been in the business for 35 years 35 years ago nobody else mattered but us. i think since '08 china now

matters. i think we are having to deal with that as a country and as they expand and grow. it is a new risk or new uncertainty we'll find out >> it has put in a bottom. what is the next test both in the fundamental sense but what should we look for in the market action to tell us whether in fact the bottom has been built here >> well, there is what they call the december low indicator which is one of the longest contribute tos. he worked there with me and told

me to pay no attention to the jan barometer but pay attention to the december low. if it is taken out in the first quarter of the new year watch out. that actually happened in 2018 2018 proved to be a pretty difficult year in terms of fair disclosure i own david ellison's funds. >> thanks for disclosing that. we have details on ge. >> yes ge stock is up about 3% based toen a report saying that apollo is considering a bid for the jet leasing business it is the second biggest in the space in the united states it could be worth as much as $40 billion. ge started shopping that back in november it is part of the plan to streamline the overall ge portfolio. cnbc reached out but there has been no excellent back yet that's the jump in the shares right now after the bell back to you guys

>> thank you are you surprised we are not seeing a bigger jump >> the stock has been on a roll in the new year. it is already up more than 20% off its low. it is a very depressed level you know, i think obviously a positive but we did know ge would be looking into some of the businesses jet leasing was named as one that maybe wubt going to be core for the company moving ahead >> yeah. up 12% a little bit of a comeback is that what you would be buying some of the underperformers or would you stick with the ones that the ended up higher some of the fanng names still has decent years >> yeah. i think tech flonology will be fine they are cheap my dad used to tell me good things happen to cheap stocks. the energy complex is trading at

the same it was when crude oil was 26 bucks a barrel. >> and in that case, you know, maybe it's not time for ge to sell its big energy holding which some other people have made the point if the values come back there. in way on the way of ge? it is sort of a financial business they would be exiting as well as they have others. >> well, i used to follow ge many years ago i think it's a company that needs to sell stuff to get their debt down. they are doing that. it is good for the stock when they can get liquid. it is a case where they are getting the deals done the question is what do they do with the money they have got to do something to remake the company that's the real challenge. they have got a pile of stuff now that really isn't working. they have got to reposition the pile that's going to be the challenge. they have a long way to go >> all right let's talk tech.

boy, did we see some outperformance tech stocks rebounded. it was the best fperformer. one of the leaders today, intel rallying after getting an upgrade. you're going into some of your calls on technology. where would you want to be >> i think we have to take it on a case by case basis i think facebook is a broken story far while. i think they have got to rework their model, but, you know, the amazons of the world and people like that will be just fine. >> and dave, you know, it's one of those big questions when the market has a big gut check like it has right now, who knows if it is over or not but some times it's a leadership change do you expect something like that or is it going back to the tech growth leadership >> i think like you side, a

coupleov couple of months ago it was the beginning of the real falloff starting in october. so who is going to reestablish themselves as the leaders. i think we'll have to figure that out into earnings season. it is a lot of work for people like me. i suspect jeff as well it will be one that will be pretty telling and it will tell us where the economy is and if there could be a leadership group to reestablish momentum in the overall market they were only down 13% from the all time high. 13% is not 1% or 2% but it's not like it has been a disaster. it's not like we have got this major selloff. again, all time highs. we are only down 13% people panic as if it is the end of the world it has been tough for people that own facebook and own apple the last coupleover weeks. on balance most own the indexes. that's where the moneys come into they are down after five good

years or ten good years. i think if we relax a little bit we can get back to sort of looking at the facts and not dealing with all of this stuff on the fringe. the fed says there's all of this chatter. we have to get away from that. hopefully earnings season there do that. >> i think that's the big question is this some sort of return to normal volatility of easy policies and back to normal, the good old days of normalization or is there something more that we are missing or not focusing on as a result >> i think no matter whether it is eventually getting back to some kind of old normal up 3% one day is not really anyone's version of normal. we are still there a little bit of a highly stressed market. >> and we wonder is it is machine training >> at some point people said these telephone traders, you know, they are moving this market around so much.

we'll see how it all plays out we are only down 13% we'll leave it there appreciate it. we have got some new numbers on hedge fund performance in 2018 we have those details. >> hey we have been speaking with sources all day today. a list of returns among two dozen managers among the standouts largest firms, they have their preliminary numbers showing gains of about 10% in each of their flag ship funds in 2018. renaissance technology up by about the same amount. others came in flat to the swings in the market with their positions. mostly long there. he is one of them, down less than 1% in 2018. steve's .72 was up less than 1% as well. in a year that opened the firm once again to outside investors

collecting about $5 billion in new capital. now, the challenges in 2018 came largely in the funds that invest mostly in equities lost about 34% in a year glenn view capital lead by larry saw about 16% on the year. it was largely due there stake to ge. >> you know, you paint a picture there of kind of the humans who try to pick value stocks and get cheap stuff. your top three, those are the quads, right >> yes >> that's right. >> basically kind of these quasi market makers. >> they are multi-strategy funds. they have a lot of different strategies within their broad p

umbrella they were pioneers and the performance this year showcased that the ones who did lag the market were the ones that generally did a lot more in the stock picking realm. it is a significant trend for 2018 >> leslie, thank you the hedge fund round up. up next, did powell save the stock market by saying the fed will be more patient we'll have more coming up. also former dallas fed president will be here to weigh in and apple could do no wrong with investors for the longest time they tell us which stock ty he think could become the next apple for wall street. work, would you want the one the experts at rootmetrics say is number one in the nation? sure, they probably know what they're talking about. or the one that j.d. power says is highest in network quality by people who use it every day?

this is a tough one. well, not really, because verizon won both. so you don't even have to choose. why didn't you just lead with that? it's like a fun thing. (vo) chosen by experts. chosen by you. get six months apple music on us. it's the unlimited plan you need on the network you deserve. now buy the latest galaxy phones, get galaxy s9 free. when it might be time to buy or sell? with fidelity's real-time analytics, you'll get clear, actionable alerts about potential investment opportunities in real time. fidelity. open an account today.

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and president. would you accept that? >> i have no these on that nothing has been scheduled i would say that meetings between presidents and fed of chairs do happen they have happened i think i can't think of any who didn't eventually meet with the president. but again, nothing has been scheduled. i don't have anything to report on that. >> if the president asked you to resign would you do it >> no. >> federal reserve chairman powell earlier today you heard his voice. she senior economic correspondent. amazing you got a laugh out of the audience and a panel with three of the top economists in the country. what stood out to you most about your conversation? >> look, i think what's remarkable is you have powell after two weeks ago there was a sense that the fed didn't get it there was something major shifting in the u.s. economic

outlook and they didn't realize it and didn't understand it. it was him acknowledging that, look, there are real risks out there. there are a lot of concerns. we hear you we are ready to adjust at what we think is the path for the rates and what other tools we need to use >> it is on inflation and more specifically on how they are approaching the balance sheet. it felt like a real change in policy we got a good jobs report in the market rallies 750 points do you expect it to be a complete policy shift from the fed? >> look, i think it's not so much about the policy shift. it's about the balance of risks and the frameworks they are using. it is signaling much more openness to waiting perhaps all year it is not a commitment to that i think there's a distinction there. i think the chairman was signaling to listen to what markets are telling him without

kpl committing to any kind of radical change in policy if it keeps coming in who knows. >> neil, stay with us. we are going to bring in another voice here richard fisher and former dallas fed president. richard, thanks for joining us today. what do you make of this kind of saga of powell talking to the markets and trying to make himself understood and revising the message and maybe repeating things the market didn't hear the first time how is it applying to you? >> you have to remember, his backgrounds is radically different. he came up through the credit side capital market side and started and ended up wall carlyle. he is not an economist i think he is -- and i know i know him very well the moment he joined us in june

of 2012 he really does understand capital markets i didn't see anything new in what he said, nothing. he made it very clear the markets are having a different view he has always said they will be flexible from the moment he came in the word patient was new you know, reflecting his approach but that's the only change that i heard. i heard nothing new whatsoever i hope you understand that he really does know how markets work this was something that was who came from a brilliant academic background you have to understand this is a different kind of creature he has a different perspective he is much more market sense tifr and always has been throughout his career who came

from an academic background. it has much to do about nothing as far as i'm concerned. >> i just want to get neil back in here. >> you can't say that -- you can't really predict how they will move. they keep saying and powell keeps saying the economy is doing well he pointed to numbers today. you know, i think the market here as far as i'm concerned i would love to have his views is so hooked on monetary policy, it's very hard to withdraw we are going through this withdraw as you would from anybody who is overly induced with alcohol or opioids. it will lead to further volatility and some pain i don't see that changing. >> how do you think the fed is thinking about that?

it will go ahead with this withdraw if you you mention that it is 3.2% it is not something that is making him worry i think when they held off on rate increases in response to international strains and problems in china. they believe they prevented a recession there 2016 by doing that i think those two are signs that he is willing to be dovish if circumstances continue to justify it >> yeah. i like that. i don't like it. he will be a wise owl. that's the way the fed proceeds. it may or may not increase significantly or many times next year or maybe not at all

it was made clear today they haven't seen that so far >> yeah. reemphasized might be the word to sum it up richard, before we go we did talk earlier today about the passing of founder of southwest airlines it's somebody you work close with >> he was vice chairman and chairman of the federal reserve bank during the crisis all the way up to 2013/2014. speaking of the addiction issue, when i expressed to him my frustration that we weren't moving -- removing our stimulus fast enough you have to remember he was a giant consumer of wild turkey bourbon he said richard, you don't go from wild turkey to cold turkey

overnight. i think that's it right now. he was a remarkable leader obviously a brilliant aviation expert he lobbied to let the fed do its job. one of the great men of all time and a big brother to me. i miss him terribly already. >> it was a nice tribute there thank you. >> always good to get your thoughts >> thanks. >> neil thanks as well >> certainly >> moderating that panel >> a dwreem assignment for some. >> yes for some including me. new hopings hoping to fuel -- helping to fuel today's rally. coming up we'll discuss what to expect from the negotiations and whether they can extend the gains today. we'll break down the charts

what what to look at, what the die ver je divergence says. moving in opposite directions. hey... saved you a seat.

this round's on me .

hey, can you spot me? come on in! find your place, today, with silver sneakers... included with many medicare advantage plans. call the number on the screen now or visit getsilversneakers.com >> we have >>. we have a news alert on sea sears. it >> was to see if they would accept is bid that came in last

friday here is the thing. there have been red flags raised from this $4.4 billion bid it is short of the total amount of money they need it doesn't cover the fees. we are waiting to see on the result will they actually accept that bid? if not it looks like they have to liquidate the company one other piece of news, a division president ran the hard lines division of sears. he resigned from the company a few minutes ago. he is leaving and will not get any incentives from the company. read into that back to you guys >> saga continues. thank you. the dow finishing higher today following a strong jobs report there is still disagreement about the state of the current economy. mike joins us with more. i love what you're going to do >> conflicting signaling from different parts of the economy

let's see what we are looking at here in blue the manufacturing employment this is basically a trend i indicator. it has take an dive litely a lot of people playing the trade war. right here the domestic consumer is on fire right here. look at this trajectory there. normally they move much more in sync it helps explain the arguments wean the market and the feds to some degree. they are looking into domestic conditions employment is doing well all of the other things that kind of feed directly into it is fine the market is much more about the global warming streams so it's not the whole story but it's an interesting die vvergene

>> it should be a vote of confidence for our economy the market though is much more exposed internationally and much more exposed through manufacturing. >> it is much more business to business it is much more about multi-national activity. 40% are close to it come from overseas this is why i think that there's a little bit of a failure to communicate between the federal reserve and financial markets. so it seems as if it is not so much that one has it right or one has it wrong it is a matter of which you are emphasizing right now. credit signals are another one that filter in here. >> it is if manufacturing leads the consumer which i'm not sure what the data is >> or another take away too is that we have had a little bit of a tax cut axel rant. it is not necessarily going to

continue with that pace next year or this year. >> divergence in the consumer versus the manufacturer. hi again, sue. >> hello everybody here is what's happening at this hour a u.s. judge standing by his ruling to limit evidence in the trial surrounding claims that round up weed killer causes cancer from using evidence that would influence public opinion the judge saying trials should focus on scientific evidence according to the latest numbers the flu is now widespread in a total of 24 states 19 states and new york city are experiencing high activity and nine have moderate activity. two more children died from the flu related complications. that raises the death toll now to 13. the latest on the marriott hack, the company now revealing more than 5 million unincrypted passport numbers were stolen during the data breached which was disclosed in november.

marriott is walking back the number of people effected to 383 million guests from 500 million. and a recall to tell you about, ford is recalling nearly 1 million vehicles worldwide to replace passenger air bag inflaters. included are various models of the edge, the lincoln, ford ranger, forfusid fusion and musg you can find all of the details on the ford web site that's the news update this hour have a great weekend >> you too thank you. is the reign of apple over on wall street up next, two money managers tell us who they think could become the new apple and darling for investors. we'll have the latest on whether there's any end in sight which the white house says will cut by one tenth of a percent every two weeks.

yeah, that too. i don't want any trade minimums. yeah, i totally agree, they don't have any of those. i want to know what i'm paying upfront. yes, absolutely. do you just say yes to everything? hm. well i say no to kale. mm. yeah, they say if you blanch it it's better, but that seems like a lot of work. no hidden fees. no platform fees. no trade minimums. and yes, it's all at one low price. td ameritrade. ♪

shares of apple finishing lower by about 5%. the truth is it may have been forshadowed when the reputation

poll was released apple had the top rated of 100 ranked companies. in 2018 it tumbled all the way down to 29 joining us now to discuss which could be the best is portfolio and paul meeks, portfolio manager for the wireless fund. what do you think? do you buy into the premise that there could be one of these main streets that pops up >> i think there have been for some time. i think they will continue to be the ones we are most interested in are microsoft and amazon. i think it continues to be i think the pull back makes it more attractive. they are talking about cloud transition they have a $35 billion cloud business that's growing 30%.

>> do you assume that apple isn't going to have the status that it did in terms of being such a widely owned stock and such an out performing stock over years it is beloved by not just wall street analysts but retail too >> apple is a phenomenal consumer product it is one of the best consumer products we have ever seen how much growth is left in apple and is evaluation attractive i think it is very attractive. i think whether it is china or doe mostic h domestic i think it's a question a lot of people are grappling with >> what stocks would you nominate forthis

>> i think over time commercial aviation it will be very hard to avoid even for the chinese in the meantime a lot of people don't know that boeing has its own interesting business it is a big catalyst it has been. i think it will resume as a catalyst boeing will be -- i like it much better than it was at 310. my other idea is a company that's been around a long time it will become more and more

popular. what's happening now is i do believe that amd is going to take some share and servers and also they are going to take some share and gaming systems from nvidia it will never become a household name like intel or like boeing you'll hear a lot more from it i think over the next two or three years. >> all right thanks for joining us with your picks, guys. >> thank you $6.5 million a week. that is how much they estimated a threatened government shutdown would cost the economy we'll see whether there's any hope to end this current shutdown u.s. envoy is expected in beijing for trade talks. we'll look at at owh'sn the agenda and what it might mean

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a two hour meeting tonight on the government shutdown joining us now, tell us whether any progress was made. what's the verdict i. >> i guess it depend sz ws who talk to. president trump called it productive he said that both sides are on the same path towards some type of resolution.

in the same breath he also said he is prepared for the shutdown to drag on for years >> we mentioned the price that we want $5.6 billion very strongly numbers are thrown around very strongly this is national security we are talking about. we are not talking about games we are talking about national security this should have been done by all of the presidents that preceded me. >> now, all sides did agree to keep talking at least. they said a working group will continue discussions over the weekend from the white house that working group will be lead by mike pence, kushner and homeland security secretary neilson. president trump was very clear he wants some type of physical barrier at the border whether it is made of steel or concrete he said he is considering declaring a national emergency in order to build that wall. president trump also talked about trade as well and his

hopes. >> kline that is not doing well now, and it puts us there a very strong position. we are doing very well we are talking in billions and billions of dollars. i hope we are going to make a deal with china. if we don't they are paying us tens of billions of dollars worth of tariffs it's not the worst thing in the world. >> you see there, the u.s. sort of laying out its side ahead of that trade delegation meeting in beijing next week. back to you. >> earlier you said that there was a sort of difference in fill os fi between the democratic leaders and the president about the wall you also said that language in one of the bills that had been passed did imply that the steel slat solution plight be possible is there somewhere in there the makings of some middle ground or not? >> yeah. the fact that the laj wlanguage

does not prohibit means it is a fight about money. is it going to be the 1.3 or president trump's $5.6 billion request for the border wall? however if it's just a fight about dollars it seems like it should be resolvable the fact that it is not tells us it is something that is much more entrenched and they see it as a fight really for the heart of what each party stands for. both sides are right now speaking to their base that makes it more difficult for them to come together. >> all right well put thank you. feems like it will last for a while. >> yes >> the trade war causing pain on both sides of the pacific, the u.s. china faceoff rattled companies and markets. a meeting for monday up next we'll discuss whether there's cause for optimism

u.s. and asian markets rallied today after it was confirmed that mcand the u.s. will hold trade talks in beijing next week. certainly couldn't have hurt the rally story. let's bring in david to discuss what investors should expect from the meeting david, good to see you for hasn't capping the incentives on both sides, the sense of urgency perhaps on both sides of the talks, where does that leave you in terms of what direction the negotiations might take, what the stakes are at this point >> i think you have incentives on both sides now. clearly in china the economy is slowing down we saw that in the apple results and other things like auto sales in china and the trade war is definitely hurting china. they would really like to make a deal in the next 60 days

on the u.s. side you have good incentive too. the employment numbers for december were outstanding. but the pmis which are forward looking suggests the u.s. economy slowing down the apple results have got people nervous we are moving into earnings season i think in the next two weeks you very well will see some growing weakness in the u.s. economy and both sides really have an incentive to come together and make a deal >> david, do you guys at brookings have any sense of what a deal would comprise. >> i've been arguing for a while that a zeal likely to have three baskets. first mcis happy to make big headline purchases of agricultural products and energy you might get a headline number above $100 billion that doesn't change much structurally but it's one important part of a political deal the most important thing is china opening up new markets they're willing to make some moves on auto, financial

services, perhaps telecom, health care. i hope the negotiations really zero in on specific market openings from china. and then you've got longer term issues like intellectual property rights protection which china can't change overnight but there are some concrete things they can do and they could make nice noise about strengthening that so those are the three things i'm looking for. >> so those really are three things that amount to concessions by china i mean, do you actually think that mcis going to go into this with an idea of okay here is our cost for getting out of the tariffs as opposed to looking at the u.s. and saying they're slowing too we have a higher pain threshold they have a president who knows what's happening with the investigations and maybe not in the strongest position in a little while. >> i would argue that these are all things china shuchb doing the last few years and there are plenty of tech know kratz in china who wish they had been doing these things but they have their own politics as well you could call them concessions

and that has truth but they are things that help china's economy and that makes it plausible you get breakthrough in the political log jam in china and they are worried the trade war escalates if the u.s. follows through on 25% tariffs on everything from china, that's going to have a very measurable effect on the chinese economy. you have the threat and then you have the fact that they really need to do these things in their own economic interest. >> so what happens to the chinese economy if they do strike a deal? does it recover? >> yes, i think it's slowing down mostly because of their own campaign to get leverage under control. the trade war is an additional problem on top of that so they need to fine tune the macropolicies. they don't have the potential to grow as quickly as they did in the past but they can certainly grow at 5.5 to 6%. and if they accept that, fine tune the macropolicy then they stabilize i think.

and if they do the reforms we were talking about that's good for the economy. that might push up growth a little bit further towards 6, 6.5. you'll see a rally in the stock market if we get some kind of sustainable trade agreement between the u.s. and china >> sounds almost like the makings of a win/win we'll see if we can work towards that david dollar from brookings thank you very much. after a wild market week to start the new year what ulcod next week bring? we'll have the "closing bell" calendar for you next. ng i buy. and last year, i earned $36,000 in cash back. which i used to offer health insurance to my employees. what's in your wallet?

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let's get a check on the key economic data and earnings out next woke. monday brings the november factory orders and december ism non-manufacturing index. tuesday is the latest reading on the trade deficit. job openings, consumer credit, small business optimism index. wednesday, we get the latest federal reserve meeting monday as well as erpgs from bed bath and beyond consequence installation brands and kb home and lennar and weekly jobless claims and the week comes to a close with the december consumer price index and federal budget data. ism services sometimes could be worth looking at biggest chunk

of the ut u.s. economy. >> i feel like the theme of next week is we get the hard data >> that's right. >> start getting hard data not that ism but just -- and earnings that will confirm or krobt what the market has been telling us that there is a slowdown coming or not. >> we're still on the watch. all right that does it for "closing bell" for this week. >> "fast money" begins right now. have a great weekend >> "fast money" starts right now live from the nasdaq market site over looking times square i'm melissa lee. traders are tim seymour. karen finerman dan nathan and guy adami we start with the massive market rally. powell saying the magic words patient and flexible and stocks off to the races after the markets were up on a strong jobs number in hopes of a china deal the dow jumping 750. and the nasdaq up a whopping 4%. let's get to steve liesman in atlanta where he attended the