cap. i got long >> how about this market dow's up 213 the highs of the day stocks have been up for two straight weeks >> making america great again. >> going for three in a row. >> doesn't feel liblg it, but it's the truth thanks for watching. the change with kelly evans begins now >> officials from the u.s. and china are meeting now trying to hash out a trade afwreemt. should we expect to see progress plus, hunting for returns. bill miller phoning in with his take on these markets an we'll ask him about the curse of the trillion dollar market cap and a freshman fire brand on capitol hill new york's newest representative calling for a 70% tax on the super rich will it really bring in the money? that's all coming up but first, to dom with a look at today's movers >> we are at session highs for the stock market right now

a 200 point gain they're nearly 1% on the blue chip index plus 220 points. s&p up by about 31 points. amazon, a big part of the story. also watching what's happening with crude oil price, they are surging again today. we are work ok a five-day winning streak for west texas intermediary at the highs in october, we fell by around 44% of this value. gone just between this and the lows on christmas eve and then we're up by another maybe 10, 15% so far again from the lows then one other place to watch is what's happening with individual stocks p grks ag and eric, the biggest in the s&p 500 on renewed concerns that this utility could have liable theties that could put it into bankruptcy tied with the kcalifornia wildfires >> more on that later. thank you so much. for more on the market rebound that dom was just talking about,

let's get down to bob pisani at the new york stock exchange. you're seeing sentiment turn positive, right? >> absolutely. but what a difference a week makes. remember the terrible close on new year's eve sentiment is much different in the last few days. here's i think the three main reasons. first the fed in trade we've seen greater clarity from the fed. they're listen iing more to the markets and they said they would be flex bable. powell is the key here china trade. talks have resumed we had the vice premier show up this morning that's a sign they're serious. finally, separate from china trade and tariffs is the chinese economy. they have loosened e quidty and have pledged support for small businesses these three changes in the last week, the main reasons well off the bottom >> good stuff. thank you so much. just a quick note about the new show the mission here is to take you

inside the top stories moving markets and impacting your money with the most plugged in reporters in the business, most right here at cnbc and cnbc.com and from top writers and editors around the world we'll also speak with lawmakers, thought leaders and of course professional investors all with the goal of sparking muhao ideas and always leaving you better informed so all that said, let's get right to it. we begin today with the trade talks. u.s. negotiators are in beijing for a two day meeting as they try to hammer out a trade deal we have been following it closely. >> this is the first face-to-face moting between u.s. and chinese officials since the 90-day truce at g-20 so far, it's going well. there are reports that china's top economic adviser attended unexpectedly those talks and now there are talks about another meeting taking place at davos on the sidelines between president trump and another adviser to president trump xi so far, the narrative has been

positive there's also talks about structural -- meetings in beijing. >> they're short-term and longer term goals thank you so much. keeping an eye on it for us. wilbur telli ining squawk box t morning that china is learning how much it needs the usa. >> china now understands how dependent they are on us zte was a very big wake up call for china. i don't think they had truly realized how much their high-tech companies depended on american one, but you remember when we cut zte off from u.s. simply, they essentially shut their doors. >> yeah. is he right? let's ask bill bright and dan cliff ton, head of policy research gentlemen, welcome to you both bill, let me start with you and what ross had to say is china's economy, which is

slowing, looking more vul nshl to the u.s.? >> first, thank you and congratulations on the new show. i would agree the economy niese economy is slowing not due to the tariffs on ongoing attempts to start deleveraging and collapsing consumer sentiment the impacts are going to start hit thg this quarter, but i agree, there's no question that the chinese are negotiating from a bit of a position of vulnerability. >> so bill, because you know more about china than most, how slow, how bad do you think their economy is it's hard to get reliable information on this. >> i was last in beijing in august and i was pretty shocked by how down beat everyone i knew was. i think that the numbers and the sentiment is pretty bad.

everyone seems to be waiting for the government to do something and the government and the communist party, they have some fire power and it won't likely be the kind of massive stimulus we saw in 2008 they're loosening liquidity and rolling out support for primed enterprises. you're going to see more of those attempts at micro stimulus and at the end of the day, it's tough to bet against beijing's able ility to keep things afloa. >> so what do you think the u.s. can come out of here with in terms of a win >> we're optimistic we'll get a trade deal in the next month or two. both countries now have incentives lineded up to get a trade deal through the u.s. economy is slowing a bit. we want to remove that head wind china is particular worried their supply chains or businesses will lead for other countries and that will accelerate the slowdown they're experiencing if those tariffs go

into effect. so there's a good faith effort to get something done. i would put it in three categories one, what can we do to get the purchase of more goods and bet r r free flow of goods between countries. l and g, soybeans. it's hard the manage, but that's the easiest one they're looking at the second is how do you get these strurk churl reforms and the consensus a month ago didn't believe it was going to happen i think bill hit the nail on the head there's a good faith effort going on there you see the chinese start iing o lose the requirement >> i understand they're coming from a place maybe now of more weakness than we thought, but how do we trust they're not going to abandon the plan >> that's the third issue there. how to you enforce the compliance of that we think there will be an effort to try to come ply so they don't get a reacceleration of those tariffs. you're talk iing about 150 billo

to $200 billion of actual tariffs, on on goods if every good was faced with a 25% tariff so the chinese probably want to prevent that that's why it's a good faith effort this will not be a perfect deal. my sense is we're headed for a positive outcome >> i'm going make a strange angel alogy, but this conversatn is sart tog remind me of the iran nuclear deal under president obama, how can we verify, how can we believe, what's the process to believe they're giving up these plans. how do we know what china's real intentions are >> a great question and we don't. that's something the u.s. has to be careful of. the u.s. and china have struck many deals over the last several decades and the chinese compliance and track record of fulfilling their promise is pretty bad that comes down to the ambassador and his team and how they put in place real credible

ways to verify the chinese i would say though that when we look at the overall u.s. china relationship, i do think there is a decent chance now there could be a deal by march 1 that at least puts pause on the trade war. but any kind of a trade deal is not going to do anything to change the overall downward trajectory of u.s. china relations to much more contentious relationship given the other issues that are exist between the two countries. >> well put. before we go, guys, dan for you, i want to mention that we're just learning the president wants a prime time address tomorrow night to talk to the country about the government shutdown before he leaves to go to the border in a couple of days what do you think he needs to say? >> he's trying to make a case that we have a national security emergency at the border. there's terrorists coming through and that our country is urn attack he's trying to put pressure on the democrats to be able to come up with a compromise if they don't, i would anticipate the president is going to declare a national emergency and find funds within the existing budget to start

putting sopu border type i wouldn't say wall, but maybe a fence to get that through. he'll probably want to announce that on thursday if he sees no movement that gives him cover to open up the government before the paychecks don't be able to go thu. >> that's what i'm wondering so if he announcing a national emergency, is he announcing the government is reopening? >> he would have to go through the congressional process, but u it gives him cover that he's achieve board e security and that the government can reopen >> great stuff thank you both dan and bill now speaking of china, as the trade war continues, the chinese economy appears to be slow doung. take a look at these numbers auto sales in china drops 3% last year. that was the first decline in about two decades. china's manufacturing missed last month orders fell for a seventh month and profit growth dropped for the first time in nearly three years. and yet, beijing suspended the regional data release after several weak readings.

now if china wants foreign investment to shore up its economy, will be more transparent. let's get a check on the markets now. we're at session highs the dow jonesindustrial averag up about 244 s&p up 33. nasdaq up 115 for a nice 1.7% gain dow, visa, home depot and nike are leading the charge higher. there's much more coming up after this >> still ahead, legendary value inves tor bill miller. what's his bet on bitcoin? he's calling in live plus, sticker shock. coming to disney ticket prices soaring. is it a sign of a strong economy or is mickey pricing people out? and representative alexandriaco proposal for a tax on the super rich getting lotz of attention, but would it have the desired

impact we'll look at the numbers. i am a family man.

i am a techie dad. i believe the best technology should feel effortless. like magic. at comcast, it's my job to develop, apps and tools that simplify your experience. my name is mike, i'm in product development at comcast. we're working to make things simple, easy and awesome. welcome back as we know, 2018 started out great for the stock market, but didn't end up this way the s&p fell 6% and many money pros suffered their worst year since the financial crisis joining us now on the news line is bill miller, the cio of

miller value partners. welcome, bill. >> thanks. >> thank you for your time want to talk about so many things especially tech and amazon, which you've been long time believer in. how bad was the end of the year for you? is it creating opportunities and what, how do you think about how we're positioned now >> it was pretty bad pretty bad for us. we were b about at the end of the third quarter, i think we were about 7 or 800 basis points ahead of the market and gave that back and more in the fourth quarter. so that december, which was the worst december since 1931, was one that really, really hit us the market in the quarter was worried about too much fed tightening and leverage. companies that have a lot of debt and are paying the debt down we're off to a strong start this year >> go ahead on that? sf >> off to a very strong start.

so that's encouraging. >> what are some names you think are really attractive here >> you know, i think this decline was so strong and we saw the same behavior that we saw in 2016 and mostly for the same reasons. the market had the worst start to the s&p had its worst start in history the first six weeks of 2016. that was due to the same things. stan fisher said he thought four tightening made sense. oil prices were collapsing the chinese economy, people were worried about that they were worriy eied about a u. slowdown what we saw with chairman powell's changing tone last week as well as extraordinarily strong employment report, i think that's given us a sign that this is a similar kind of false aharm. >> so you don't think there's a recession, bill, because a lot of every day people who aren't in the market and thinking about this all the time and funny enough, things seem great, but they'll ask are we going into a

recession and everyone from c s cfos, everybody thinks we're heading into one because we haven't had one in so long >> australia hasn't in 26 years. it's not like there's a secret economic force that causes a recession. i do think there's a reason, piece of research that r harvard published on ein investing it says people change their expectations based on what has happened so when the market goes down as we saw in the fourth quarter, people get pessimistic and more pessimistic that lower it and more optimistic the higher it goes not just for individuals >> what about bond yields? people will say wait a minute, the yield on the ten-year treasury is low and fallen you've been a bond bear yourself is it not sending a conflicting message? >> no, the same message, which is when people are worried about stocks because they're worried

about too much fed tightening, the economy slowing, oil prices, a recession. they want safety stock equity mutual funds have roughly the same level of redumgss in the fourth quarter of this year as they have in the bottom in '08. the economic backdrop was radically different in '08 there aren't any signs out there of a ed that, i just happened to get down here in florida where it's nice and warm and the headline on the newspaper here in quiet vero beach, aircraft soaring. airlines report great holiday season which is happening on the ground is very different from what the markets were worried about the great quip by paul samu samuelson. that's a much better rate than the council of economic advisers

or the fed z . >> all right, so let me talk about the tech stocks, which amazon k you've been a long time bull on. but these are one area of the market that have gotten destroyed. even semiconductor names, are all of those buys as far as you're conditicerned >> probably. apple missed so badly on their guidance and for reasons that are d ben thompson wrote about this that china could have a big problem. the apple ios doesn't lock you in because of we chat. the way it does in other part of the world. they've got an 80% rate outside of china then the chinese slowdown. but i think at 12 time this is years earnings, apple is not

overpriced they're up 30% over the last 12 months >> it's not as if it's done poorly with amazon in particular, it reminds me of apple where people has said the fact apple reached a $20 million cap, it's now shed 40%, but if the same happens for amazon k do you think it's going to hit a trillion dollars and then sit a sell? >> those are artificial numbers. my friend chris davis pointed out, b his father used to say any company with a 30 billion market cap that was maybe the case four years ago, but not today amazon's market is so gigantic that we did hit a trillion dollar market cap. just pull ued back not as much as amazon and apple has. i think apple, it's very unlikely i think i told you u this several years ago. amazon should double in the next

three years. i would say that again right now because -- >> you think amazon could double from here in three years >> yeah. the top line there is going to grow somewhere in the 20 to 25% range. it's only about this year's value. 14 times next. that is not demanding at all for a company this dominant with this amount of optionalty in there. >> what about the regulatory concerns it's one thing for people to talk about how to regulate facebook and frankly, i think that will shore up their dominant position. what happens if amazon gets broken up sm. >> we're a long away way from that first of all, you'd have to have the members of congress to come together and change the antitrust legislation. they can't agree on anything in congress i think that's a long way off if it happens i think it's five to ten years out.

but there could be a lot of noise around that. there's a long way from doing that i think it's a, it's a risk. there are no stocks without risks. >> for sure. that's usually what delivers the returns. we're showing the other top holds. delta was in the news last week. delta and united what do you think is going on with the airlines here >> they're a single digit and you know if we have many weaknesses, we tend to be long-term oriented the airlines haven't done much for us in the last several years. shrunk their shares by over 100 million shares it's a very cheap stock.

still generate significant amount of cash they're exceptionally profitable all have pretty good management which was the case >> what about jpmorgan and other financial companies like bright house. i remember a couple of years ago, you told me you didn't think we'd have another financial crisis for 75 years. i have this right. right? you said you know, like the one we just went through i remember thinking that sounds pretty crazy. here we are a couple years later and you know, the financials are still incredibly cheap because everyone seems to be thinking ability the '07, '08 experience. is is it true u way all way too short-term focused and how good do you think their long-term prospects might be >>. >> you see that over and over and over again

i think we're probably 65 years from a crisis. >> do you really think that? >> if we pressure crises not by issues and problems, everything people label a crisis, i'm talking about something like like 2008. like the depression or a complete economic crisis you could have a war it really takes a long time for those kinds of excesses to build. and it's usually when people sort of forgot and don't think they're going to happen. >> we're not there yet >> and min ski talked about his stabilizing an unstable economy. basically that the financial

instability, the longer things are stable, the more people expect they will be stable but then that increases the chances they won't be stable because people take greater risks. >> speaking of which >> there's no appetite for risk right now in this market with bonds. at 2.6% and stocks at 14 or so times earnings you can buy a lot at single digit multiples. >> i was going to ask you as your final topic here at bitcoin, you said if everyone puts a little in their portfolio, i think you hived it off, investors didn't want exposure, they didn't have to git it it's been crushed this year. is there a reason why people need exposure to bitcoin or crypto currencies? >> i don't think anybody needs that type of exposure. bitcoin basically has no statistical correlation with stocks or bonds for that matter. which makes it an excellent diversifier. >> a lot of people have said

bitcoin led us up now led us back down over the past 12 months >> in the short run, again, think about it so bitcoin went town piqued in h december of last year the stock market piqued in january. went down for four or five weeks. then rallied all the way thro h through. the correlation was negative over that period of time but fincke you look at bitcoin, the way i see it, i've said many times is an interesting technolo technological experiment take a look at the low for bitcoin this year since it came out ten years ago. by and large, there's a clear pattern of high er lows than that including last year when the lows was around 31 or 3200 and now we're around 4,000 on it so bin this short run, you hit something interesting. that bitcoin tended to leave the

market so bitcoin bottomed in almost the exact day of 52 weeks after it piqued in december. and it started up the then the stock market didn't bottom for another three to four weeks. now the stock market is starting up so who knows if that correlation will hold. i like it because it's not, it's part of my portfolio because it's not correlated with things and it has the potential to be worth a lot and woth zero. >> i'm going to say you remain a believer then. bill, thank you so much. >> i'm a bitcoin observer, but i wouldn't call it a believer. if i was a believer, then i'd be bullish on it. it's an interesting opportunity. >> i appreciate the vero beach update we'll check back in, see if thing rs still rosy on the ground u thank you. bill miller from miller value partners coming up, shares of tesla have been popping today after officially breaking down on the newest factory in shanghai we'll tell you what that means for the company's bottom line

and neil ferguson will join us with the biggest test for the trump presidency m spre u. the exchange will be right back.

let's get you caught up on markets. stocks are mostly higher right now, the dow hanging on to a a 226 point gain and nasdaq still up take a look at the chip names.

amd, nvidia and micron up nearly 10% in the past week how about retail xrt, stitch fix, mattel and wayfair are the big winners there. wayfair with a gain of 9% now over to sue. >> here's what's happening at this hour. president trump wants to address the nation about the government shutdown in a televised speech on tuesday night that is i coaccording to numero sources. this as he prepares to visit the u.s. mexico board eoin thursday. the federal government shutdown is now in its 17 day in a surprise development, form eer uber driver jason dalt cut short jury selection in court today by agreeing to killing six people in 2016 he faces a mandatory term of life in prison without patrol. an 18 wraerld saudi woman

who fled her family and ware caded herself in a hotel has now left her room. officials say the woman was allowed to temporarily enthe terror the country under the protection of the u.n. refugee agency, which is expected to take at least five days to evaluate her claims for asylum status and in a speech to diplomats today, pope francis describeded the sexual abuse of minors as quote one of the vilest and most heinous crimes conceivable, end quote. the bishops will shed full light on sex abuse and cover ups you are up to date back to you. >> thank you very much we have just about half an hour to go until "power lunch." i'm joined by tyler. >> we'll have a busy hour. you'll be with melissa and me. david rosenberg is one of the biggest bears on the street even though he isn't really on the street we're going to talk to him about why he thinks we are in a bear market or something he calls a fundamental correction

we're going to probe that. >> in canada, is it bay street is wall street i think so he's on bay street >> so he'll be with us then we'll get a rejoiner from jim craner in san francisco out at the jpmorgan health care conference he's going to talk to us about the ceos he talked to today about the health care space, the market more generally and obviously, we won't let him go without allowing him a moment to crow about the eagles. >> did you see the end it was heartbreaking >> i did and i have a bone to pick with the rule that lets them ice kicker. >> with the time-out if you can't find a way the work double doink into the next hour. >> we will do that also a special series we're going to kick off this week on investing at different stages and ages already, we'll take a look at the things young folks in their 20s at the beginning of their investing career ought to be thinking of doing and doing. >> that's good because people will say it depends upon if you're 55 or 30.

makes a big difference >> i got to be thinking in a much shorter term. >> no. got a lifetime >> thank you so much and here's what's coming up. straight ahead on the exchange >> still ahead tesla bets big on china. could california's wildfire have pg&e look k at bankruptcy? and apple trolls amazon and google at the nsercoum electronicses show it's all coming up in the rapid fire - i think the best company's succeed as a team

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welcome back now for a few headlines main under the radar. we'll do this in a daily segment called rapid fire. contessa brewer and brian sullivan and kenny, a managing principal at butcher squoez ef first up, david faber reporting that pg&e is facing $30 billion in liability for the devastating california fires in 2017 and 2018 and that does not even incloud any penalties or fines the company may face what opgs does the company have now? >> all right, so we know that they are considering bankruptcy. that news came out over the weekend. they could issue bonds and have customers help pay for they will that would require the government to go in and move

some room for that to happen we know that they could write that pg and eric there's been some talk about whether they could sell off their gas unit and finally, could the commission go in and take it over as has been discussed. doesn't seem attractive. and time consume iing as well. but nup of these options are in the free and clear and it doesn't remove at all this question of is it a serial offender you have running a public utility in california >> they tried to blame climate change and global warming. >> got to get to know the term inverse condemnation b liability for a public company. if a tree falls over on to a powerline, starts a fire, it fell over by in cause of pg&e's. if they file, they have filed before 2001 during the electricity crisis they fileded for bankruptcy as well so they have a history of this,

it wouldn't be the first time. >> remind me what happened in 2001 when they fired for bankruptcy how did they get out of it >> the normal process. >> they went through the whole process. >> and it took three years and wasn't attractive and rates in the meantime for california consumers skyrocketed. this was when things were being deregulated. in terms of what is the liability, in 2017, 11 wildfires were referred for criminal prosecution because of negligence in this case, you have the -- >> underlying vegetation don't manage the trees >> the transformer tower for the camp fire in november, pg&e said it was faulty. they have gone forward and said we had a faulty transmission tower then problems that went down the line. >> i like what you said about the consumer this may be coming back the higher rates the last thing california middle class wants. tesla is breaking ground on a factory in shanghai today. they plan to produce affordable

versions of the model three and y for china. i would have thought this opens them up to their technology being stolen by china. i don't know now if we feel like we've moved past that or if they can we have to produce in the country we sell. that goes everywhere, not just china. >> this whole china trade fight is about ip. you can say what you want. all the viewer has to do, not going to condemn china you heard of the land rover evoke? >> no. not the evoke. >> during the commercial break, go to your computer and type in land win and land rover. you're going to see a car built by a chinese company that looks wow, shockingly exactly like the land rover evoke there's nothing going away with this i'm saying to tes ha, they might have to be careful because this is what the issue is that. >> they have a lot of electric cars in china. it has to spend at a time when they need to con serve cash.

>> they have to look forward and grow their business. look what's happened the stock is up 15%, say 5% just today. is it on the back of the news, on the back they've gotten so beaten up? that the market in general is higher i'm not sure this is a bad move for tesla. i think brian is right they have to be careful. it's all about -- thoef think forward. >> well-known value investor bill miller kauing in earlier saying he believes amazon could double in three years. he's saying the market is gan gigantic, but frank ly, amazon did. it's been on an incredible run, but to double from here, we're talking about starring to approach a $2 trillion market cap.

>> made a lot of money on amazon early and all along. >> he's been on the amazon train forever. this is not a new position for bill to your point, law of large numbers. once you get birks it's harder to get bigger. >> it's the apple issue. he said he thinks we're five or ten years away from a real threat of them being broken up >> you know what's going to happen in the meantime you're going to have people like me people who spend on the heels of my christmas purchases alone >> speaking of spending, disney israising prices again get iting more expensive to go o the happiest place on earth. this is the second time in less than a year. it means it's about 100 bucks

for the cheapest daily ticket. are you disney people? >> i haven't been in years because my kids, i i would not run back to a disney land. >> why everyone else love d it >> i prefer universal, which has sue pperior rides and movies. >> expect a raise coming up. >> they draw you in. >> does anybody disagree i think consumers will take this price. it's a sign the economy is so strong out there >> kelly, you got a new babe b by right? wait until that baby is about 5 years old and tugging your sleeve i want to go to disney doesn't matter what you play you're taking little snot to disney i grew up in anaheim she took me and -- >> that's a little different >> we went twice when my kids were little and i vowed never to go back. >> all right contessa, you'll have to sell me

on it later. thank you very much. a pulse check on the markets now. dow is pretty much near session highs. up 222 must be the consumer must be disney we have lots me ehae raht aheadng than silicon valley?t with a cockpit fit for aspaceship. hang on. radar that senses things the human eye can't. busted. and the ability to make a thousand decisions before you even make one. was all this, really necessary? what do you think? ♪

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so you can do more of what you love. my name is tito, and i'm a tech-house manager at comcast. we're working to make things simple, easy and awesome. welcome back in a news alert, the president tweeting moments ago, quote, i'm preezed to inform you i will address the nation on the mu man tear yan crisis tuesday night at 9:00 p.m. ooen time. as you heard dan say earl yieeah think ifs the president declares a national emergency, it could pave the way for reopening the government my next guest thinks the disarray in washington could enable the nation's enemies. joining us now is neil ferguson. thank you so much for join iing me >> hi, kelly great to be on the first show. zpl and great to have you with us so you're concerned that we talk

a lot about trump in disarray and what's happening in washington and the people who have left the administration you know, a lot of people point to and say look, the economy is still doing great. what do you think the bi >> what are our enemies going to do and perceive as the opportunity here >> when you look at the u.s., particularly through the lens of the mainstream media, it's permanent crisis and certainly those people who are anxious to replay watergate with president trump and the role of president nixon. if you're viewing that from outside as an adversary of the united states, it's like a golden opportunity to get up to no good. who would take advantage of that one question for 2019 is, does president putin in russia seek to take another of those aggressive steps that led him into ukraine in 2014

an even bigger question is what does china do to exploit the apparent disarray in the united states i agree with you, by the way, this disarray is greatly exaggerated. if you look at the president's approval rating or the attitude of the public towards the question, is the country on the right track? there isn't that big of a domestic political crisis. much of it exists in the minds of liberal commentators. >> yes. >> but the perception in the rest of the world is a serious crisis in the united states and that looks like an opportunity. >> it could be an opportunity for action, not in terms of conventional warfare china in particular, that's the area of focus right now, what kind of methods are you talking about if they felt the need to push back against the u.s. or exploit our vulnerability, what kinds of things might they do? >> the fascinating trump presidu china under pressure on trade. the chinese are in a weak position and, i think, yet to

make more concessions in the near future to try to get that trade war over because it's hurting their economy. they can't fight back. they can't retaliate with tariffs and achieve anything like the same pain on the united states but when it comes to technology and the increasingly complex world of information war, the chinese have options and i think the things to watch in 2019 is the speed in which the chinese roll out their tech platforms, their big tech companies in the rest of the world. this is the kind of technology version of the belten road initiative and poses a real challenge to the united states. >> it's interesting you use the term information war if that's what the russians declared on us two years ago, how is the u.s. supposed to respond to that? >> it's much harder for the u.s. to win an info war than to win a trade war because as an open society with a completely free press, the united states is highly vulnerable to aggressive interventions of the sort we saw

by the russians back in 2016 and one should remember the chinese are aligned closely with the russians on foreign policy issues these days and beginning to realize the russians are not the only players in the information war. china, as a recent hoover institute report showed is active in influence operations in the united states as well as in the rest of the world and i think if you're asking the question, what's the 2019 black swan, then i don't think it's going to be necessarily a major terrorist attack like 9/11 or outbreak of a conventional war in say the south china sea or eastern europe the thing that interests me is that escalation of the information war in which china because of its really much greater technology reach than russia is able to do some real disruption. >> then that would, that's interesting to contemplate let me ask you about iran then is the president right they've been severely weakened by his policy he implied by pulling out of syria, we don't have to worry

about him like years ago and iran thinking about striking the last four zeros because it's collapsed so much. are they feebled by everything that's happened or an adversary we need to be seriously concerned about? >> economically and in terms of its domestic legitimacy, the regime in tehran is weak and i think it's true to say that the trump administration's decision to pull out of the iran nuclear deal added to the pressure however, i think the president announced he's essentially pulling out of syria though, it seems to have been toned down and qualified by john bolton in recent days must have given real encouragement to iran because it creates an opportunity for iran to continue expanding its influence outside of its own borders. so i think both of these things are true the iranian regime is weak economically, it's not particularly popular with its own people but it continues to

exercise power outside its borders in ways that are highly destabilizing. >> we'll have to bring you back to talk about brexit and the vote that teresa may faces in a few weeks but thank you for laying out the concerns in 2019. that's neil ferg son from the hoover institution the youngest in congress alexandria oh saz okhashogg (vo) we're carvana, the company who invented car vending machines and buying a car 100% online. now we've created a brand new way for you to sell your car. whether it's a few years old or dinosaur old, we want to buy your car. so go to carvana and enter your license plate, answer a few questions, and our techno-wizardry calculates your car's value and gives you a real offer in seconds. when you're ready, we'll come to you, pay you on the spot, and pick up your car. that's it. so ditch the old way of selling your car and say hello to the new way...

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. welcome back to "the exchange." a check on markets we started losing steam after the president's tweet that he'd be addressing the nation on border security tomorrow at 9:00 p.m. 250 on the dow 150 right now. less than a 1% gain on s&p and nasdaq up 1.4% right now well, she's one of the newcomers to congress but made her presence felt. alexandria ocasio-cortez is now proposing a 70% tax on the super rich robert frank on whether this will work. >> this is getting so much attention mainly because it's so extreme. even bernie sanders, top right

was 52% and ocasio-cortez proposing a rate of 70% on income over $10 million. after world war ii, it was high as 90% and then back to 70, 50 and now 37%. ocasio-cortez saying people are going to have to start paying their fair share in taxes. many republicans saying it would punish work and success but how much would it actually raise there's about 16,000 people in the u.s. making $10 million or more in 2016 they earned about $400 billion in income and paid about $120 billion in federal taxes if tax rates went up to 70%, they would pay an additional $70 billion a year under her plan but that assumes no tax planning remember, in canada, they raised it to the top 1% and instead of a gain of $3 billion in revenue, they lost $4.6 billion in revenue. >> not to mention green new

deal, the nurnmbers don't work even if it did raise revenue. >> compared to college, free college tuition, all the things they want to pay for, not going to be enough. >> thank you that does it for the exchange i'll go join tyler and melissa in a few minutes on "power lunch" which begins right now. big progress on the biggest worries for the bulls. is it time we ask to put money back to work trade talks back on the first face-to-face since president trump and xi met at the g 20 any closer to a deal and the world's biggest health care conference under way as we speak and a lot of moving market headlines coming out our own jim kramer with a slew of c oreos and "power lunch" sts right now.