way. >> so almost an upside correction in an almost bear market. >> but sometimes corrections become bigger so the rally can become a more enduring trend but honestly you have a few more tests to pass. >> without styx with garden-variety correction. >> that does it for closing bell today. thanks for tuning in. "fast money" begins right n now. i'm melissa lee. tonight on "fast," consumer, discretionary and energy on fire leading the markets higher but if you don't trust this, the chart master said there are three stocks you can own no matter what happens next plus, another wounded bull, canacord cut theirs 2019 target. the dow adding to friday's huge day, up another 1200 points closing off the highs of the session as it feels like investors are putting trade and

the fed in the rear-view mirror. and check out this unlikely pair so happy together. energy and retail the big winners today since december market lows. can this retail rally continue if we see strength in energy continue what does this mean for the markets, guy >> i think the strength in retail can continue with crude oil. you go back to the summer. names like nordstrom, macys when crews with in the later stages of its upswing i'll let tim speak to the energy portion. you look at jd nordstrom which reports towards the end of februa february valuation is reasonable and names like these are trading

names. i don't think nordstroms figured out their problems but the move from 65 that we saw down to 45 was probably too much. >> the xrt has outperformed the s&p by 7% since about seven days or a couple days into last year through to where we are. the holiday season was extraordinary. we'll talk about credit later in the show but a handful of these retailers are credit stories so you've seen the combination of good backdrop on holiday sales and a better credit environment making oversold names look interesting. best buy which trades always cheap is very cheap relative to itself in this recent run. had another big day today and retail is the place you tay. >> what has changed is if powell is dovish the market can run i think it's technical. >> everything runs that means? >> i think everything runs

that's what you're seeing pop. large cap tech but i don't think it matters on the whole. >> but powell isn't technical right? >> powell is -- the balance sheet, the rates but i don't know what reality is. >> retail is nice. it shouldn't have been where it wa was. >> gas prices are very low, people are employed, wages are going up and the valuations are overdone so t's nice to have this one day rally but i agree with -- i think there's still legs here because multiples on a lot of these stocks are well below the market. >> they got so beaten up think about what is going to be late -- refund checks are going to be late with government shutdown that's less money in the pocket of consumers maybe that's a head wind going

forwa forward. >> in terms of psychology, we were talking about how the market volatility can grate on the psyche of the investor then you see prices rising at the pump isn't that the a head wind less money in your wallet every wee week. >> we've become conditioned to see gas rise and fall so i think the u.s. consumer is okay with gasoline at these levels or higher number two is a more salient point. the volatility in the market scares people and a scared consumer is a consumer that won't spend. now maybe people are saying that was it, 2019 will be great i happen to think the market movement is more important. >> it is i think when people see the

market and their net worth evaporate, they don't want to spend but i believe this rally, this pop is going to be short lived because there's nothing that's changed in my mind. >> let's they rally is all trade which it seems to me is. >> all trade >> trade related >> i'll let you keep going. >> i think he's going to disagree with you when you're done. >> i sense that. >> i'm laying back. >> if it's all trade, which i think it is, do you think we have to see something in the nearish term. >> i think we will see something. and that will be the last pop or the last rally in this bounce relief. >> or the biggest head wind to the retailers who will face a rise in tariffs come march.

>> i think we'll get an announcement because this administration needs an announcement i'm not sure how substantial and certainly how constructive it will be to the structural issues here but i look at what's happened in the last 48 or 72 hours and while i don't think what fed powell said on friday was different than what he said two weeks earlier. i will acknowledge the balance sheet was given more of a context for them being flexible, a word we're now using. >> that was the whole point of the rally. >> i understand. so why are we talking about trade if trade is the dynamic -- >> another tail wind. >> to me the fed is the only thing that matters. if the fed says we're going to let this breathe, that's what is weighing down the market because that's so much more important than trade. >> i think if we were to see a headline like your know what the u.s. contingent has come

back and talks are off 56and we plan on march 1, that mark will be down a lot. >> let me know another hypothetical what if we heard from feds powell or a handful of the fed committee members that are voting members that the fed is concern concerned. >> hawkish >> i think the market would sell more on fear of fed than fear of no trade but we can agree to disagree. >> we won't know. >> the most important thick right now, i think central banks are the most important thing. >> the problem is i've been saying this since october 3, that it was the balance sheet. for me that was the equivalent to raising at every meeting along with raising so it's a double raise at every meet iing.

we know he's going to be data dependent. >> this goes hand in hand, though if the concern is the fed's reaction to what's going on around it in terms of what the macro is and part of that equation is what is going on with trade if you are a believer that economic growth will likely snow and earnings growth will slow this year in 2019 and you have the potential unknown of a trade war and on top of that a fed you thought two months ago was on autopilot that's a okay tail from disaster. if you have a fed who backs off with these unknowns out there, trade, right >> isn't that what just happened isn't that what we just had? i think i agree with you. >> i don't know if one is a bigger thing than the other. >> it's harder to run a business to worry about trade and supply chain and tariffs than it is to worry about a quarter percentage point increase. >> the fed is a constant

the fed will see whether it will be resolved or not resolved. >> do you think economic growth is going to be lessened because of the trade issues. >> i'll try to answer both your questions. i think if that headline comes out we trade up to 2710 in the s&p. that was a level we talked about so that's the level we test on the yup side to your question about does it take recession off the table, thai believe that recessions are caused by market selloff, i believed that my answer to 2710 means a recession ises will likely. >> our next guest says new highs are coming this year and brought along charts to prove it let's over to the plasma where

tony dwier fryer from canaccord with us. >> we've had a market crash, a 20% decline peak to trough with a spike in volatility so we look back over the course of of the last 40 years to find other 20% drops which is what categorize it had market crash and we found three examples, 1987, 1998 and 2011 let's look at how 2007 worked out. we had the high, then we had the swoon, then the reflex rally we're seeing a reflax rally up about 9% this was 11% over the course of 13 trading days and you had a retest all of the non-recession crash environments had a retest of the low. all three of them did and then of course you ended up moving to new highs so if we go forward

and look at the current environment, what we have is we had the high here, you had the vix at 10, 61% bulls, we did the show, it was going to correct, didn't think it was going to cra crash. then you had the initial low, the intraday low the day after christmas and what woe ear seeing is this reflex rally. if you match the average of the other three, it should be 13%, brings you up to 2600 to 2660. once you do that you retest the low so we think over the course of the next four to five weeks you'll retest that low but once you do that in these non-recession environments, you've hit a new high. that's the opportunity not to worry about the retest now use it to your advantage. >> so tony will walk over. guy? >> on friday you said trade or fade in terms of the broader

rally. i said fade. obviously that was wrong today but i find myself in tony's camp the situation lends itself to what we saw summer of 2015 on february 10, 2016, you had a number of announcements, j.p. morgan, jamie buying back stock, you had a deutsche bank bond issuance, that was the low until basically for the last however many years so i think the situation plays out exactly like that i think january is painful, trough in february then a decent back half. >> so tony in terms of cutting your target, you're the latest strategist to do that. >> correct and i've said on the show my target was wrong i wanted to wait so see how much i would slash it before the fed acknowledged the inflation data that was coming out and i've said publicly, if i get the target right, it's luck because you're making a guess.

my new target is based upon retesting that high which is 2950 so that's the target. it has nothing to do with the valuation, that would be a 17.5% multiple that's our target in. >> in terms of what the fed has said, the fed basically gave the markets everything that they wanted to hear and yet you moved your target lower. what did the fed need to do in order for you to stick by that target. >> it would have been lower had he not done what he did. he was reading off a sheet of pain to make sure he didn't screw it up. >> no matter what? >> it would have been a 30% rally off the low. i'm good at being wrong, i'm also good at history and data. i go by data sometimes the data is wrong. if you look at a post-crash environment, human nature is very consistent and clear. we've had two days where you had 95% upside volume. i use sentiment trader on

twitter to give me the history of when things like that happen. that's what happens after you make an initial crash low. you have big up days, very exciting people think you're off to the races and enough demoralizing retest that's because you have trade issues, brexit, don't forget italy. >> but does it make you rethink what got slammed to get us down to those lows and what will rally the most is it the things that got hit the hardest that should rebound off those technical levels or is it the things that you want to hold the longest >> if you look at the '98 and 2011 scenario, financials, industrials, tech, they generally lifted the most off the low over the next three to six months then you petered out depending upon what the yield curve did and other issues but the call needs to be when you crash, doesn't -- it's not a fundamental situation you need the fed to get more dovish, they

did. you need the trade issue to kind of work its way through. it probably will but ultimately it is a human nature trade now within four to five weeks you retest the low, you have to buy that unless you absolutely are convinced you're going into recession. >> tony, thanks. good to see you, tony dwyer, canaccord. >> thanks. >> do you believe where what tony is saying >> i do. i'm not sure where trade fits into it. i don't know if the charts allow for that or if -- to me it's the biggest question. >> in order to see the markets have a gain, we need to see the trade issue resolved in some way? >> yes, yes. >> what was different about the market to me from october than the market that had a lot of volatility from february through october was that credit fell apart in october we saw high-yield fall apart dramatically and what we've seen over the last couple days is really the kind of a rally you've seen in credit but

especially high yield that tells you things are different than the market priced it i would argue we had serious dynamics, there was serious liquidity. energy and retail is still open for question but the recovery in credit is the healthiest part of the market recovery. >> hard to be a strategist these days in this kind of market. >> uh-huh. that's why i'm not -- that's why it's hard for me to spell strategist which is why i don't have it on my business card. i just sit here and opine. >> what does your business card say now? >> cheese swizel. it's been a wild ride but the chart master says there's three stocks you can buy no matter where the market goes next plus, fit for a king, netflix and amazon surging back from their december lows will they reign as market leaders?

and a biotech breakout and you won't believe what the ceo of amgen told jim cramer i'm ken jacobus and i switched to the spark cash card from capital one. i earn unlimited 2% cash back on everything i buy. and last year, i earned $36,000 in cash back. which i used to offer health insurance to my employees. what's in your wallet?

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a business owner always goes beyond what people expect. that's why we built the nation's largest gig-speed network along with complete reliability. then went beyond. beyond clumsy dials-in's and pins. to one-touch conference calls. beyond traditional tv. to tv on any device. beyond low-res surveillance video. to crystal clear hd video monitoring from anywhere. gig-fueled apps that exceed expectations. comcast business. beyond fast. welcome back to "fast money," eli lilly purchased loxo oncology, the deal sent the etf that tracks the biotech space up more than 3% nearly 10% since the start of the year jim cramer sat down with a number of ceos in the space at

the annual j.p. morgan health conference here's what the ceo had to say about growth at its company. >> we have four areas of big growth right now we have cancer portfolio growing, cardiovascular portfolio growing, bone health and migraine and then nugs we're launching biosimilar medicine which is we expect to be an important source as well so we expect to be a company that continues to grow handsomely on the top line and earnings per share over the long term. >> for the full interview with jim cramer and the ceo of amgen, stick around for "mad money" at the top of the hour. so should investors keep betting on biotech and the health care space? two major acquisitions in two weeks. >> i think so. this is not monday morning quarterback stuff. this is something we've been saying for some time, probably since earlier in the spring. i do think valuations are still reasonable in the case of eli lilly, for example, which is about to make an all-time high, if you like lily at 19.5 times forward

earnings, you have to love pfizer at 14 times so there's room in this space. the fact that the president i believe on friday tweeted about drug pricing >> that would be the only thing i would say is the negative that it was on m&a that we didn't see the knee jerk reaction and now when you have democratic-run house you do get that ability for the bipartisanism to kind of flood the space with negative pricing again. not to say that to guy's point m&a won't trumpet, but you never know. >> health care has been disappointing and you look at bellwethers over the last few weeks, unh has been the best name in terms of both the quality of their earnings, their growth and the share price in the last two years and that stock has been under trouble as guy pointed out and pointing out for a long time, the big far that names have been defensive

in a volatile marketplace not only because of their balance sleets but dividends i would argue ibb has outperformed not only because of the m&a environment but because a lot of these stocks have extraordinary balance sheets and have been lagging for so long. how long have we been talking about gilead the problem is look at where celgene traded down to you lost a lot of money in the stock if you've been there on the takeout. the guys that win are bristol-myers. >> >> so more leverage to the smaller bio tech. >> so bristol on the announcement on that deal -- >> not so much. >> that wouldn't be a reason though for you to be invested in bio tech, the takeout. >> if you believe they're not expensive as they are which is what you believe. >> plus you want the kicker. >> right. >> for more on the biggest

headlines, head to cnbc.com. i'm melissa lee, you're watching "fast money. here's what sells coming up on "fast." >> under no circumstance are you allowed to take off your blindfold. >> actually, can you take off your blindfold for this? that's better. because netflix shares are surging and now could be your best chance to buy the stock we'll explain. it's been a wild ride since the market highs back in september. but the chart master says there are three stocks you can own no matter what happens next e ad "e'll give us the names and thtre,fast money" returns right after this break a luxury car to create more teched out than silicon valley? with a cockpit fit for aspaceship. hang on. radar that senses things the human eye can't. busted. and the ability to make a thousand decisions before you even make one. was all this, really necessary? what do you think?

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we have a market flash in union pacific. the stark is surging over hours. let's get to seema mody. >> shares of union pacific about 6.7% after the company announced it's hiring season veteran jim vena as chief operating officer effective january 14, vena has been a big proponent of precision-scheduled railroading and operating plan that is expected to boost the underlying performance of railroad players. keep in mind even with today's move shares of union pacific have underperformed over the past three months down about 9% due in part to the slowing global growth concerns. >> seema, thank you. seema mody tim, where do you go on union pacific. >> unp finished the year with better volumes in the fourth quarter than people expected i think the rails -- i think a lot of the uber cyclicals are underperformin

underperforming. >> if you like unp, maybe this is an overreaction but in terms of more granular, i think ncs is more interesting >> the markets have been on a wild ride with the highs with the s&p down since september with twists and turns. if you're worried about more market turmoil, our next guest says there are three names you can buy no matter what happens next carter, hey. >> hi, guys. today's client report was 100 stocks to own whether the market goes up, down, or nowhere at all. the reason i like it, it's idiosyncratic growth and it acts well relative to the market but here's a chart, no drawings or annotations but what i would point out is all of this aggressive heavy volume gaps those are quarterly beats and

that's a very positive and doing thing. but if you were to put lines on it, it has a well defined uptrend and what has happened is that typically on these lines it has bounced and this bounce i would think carries to a new high here is large cap, finn tech or whatever you want to call it i would draw the lines this way. now if you look at the same setup, what's been happening is yes even as the stock has been sideways, with know this, it's making new all time relative

highs to the market. a textbook breakout on a relative basis that's ideal and it gets resolved by a move up and out of that formation finally, low beta i think you're setting up like this, a lot of tension here but if you break out and check back to the level from which you broke out, that sets you up nicely has mcdonald's sold off with the market it's going straight up relative to the s&p and that's particularly good given its low beta there are plenty of good names but no matter what you think, there's always a stock or several stocks that one can buy. >> carter, come on over.

>> i thought in 2019 we were no longer making unilateral decisions. >> that hasn't changed we said these are stocks you can buy no matter what what do you think the market will be doing? >> the market has been topping for a year we had a blowoff top a year ago that was the highest rsi reading ever recorded. higher than 1929, 1987 or 2000 and we never recovered we had a classic bull trap, drew in a lot of money and then the murder began worst in a generation or two bear markets are sharp countertrend rallies providing extra points for shorts. we've seen this over and over. did anything change because we

rallied? nothing. this is the opening of what is likely much more to come. >> so when you're talking about mcdonald's and etsy and paypal -- we tend to wait on, that which is why you shouldn't eat gummies while you're on television. >> that's why you should have asked if handicapped coe could . >> you're saying they will outperform relative? >> there are people who don't have to trade or do anything then you're better off in cash i'm in the business of having to make recommendations for institutional and retail customers and there's always the requirement to find things to buy. these are as good as any, the list of 100 is good. you don't have to pick this or that but most people want to find something to buy.

90% of all capital is on the line. >> looking at etsy, it seems not your kind of name. >> i don't have a type of name, do you mean type of business i don't know what they do. >> that's interesting to me. >> classic. >> nor do the algorithms eating everybody's lunch. that's all going passe. >> carter worth. >> >> oddly enough, i think a lot of the head winds have -- i should haven't said dissipated but everyone knows they're still there and not even on a relative basis, on an absolute basis. i think ge is a safer place to

put your money these days. >> my pick would be cbd, not sure if you're familiar with that. >> that's cannabis related >> any market he does well make it's stretch bud that's been the concern with this stock. revenue growth in the high teens, their transition volume picks soup even if the tape were to sort of go sideways, mastercard is a safe place to be. >> i'll break the cardinal rule. >> you didn't eat another gummy did you. >> what do you think of general electric and mastercard. >> one is something that has the prospect of being so bad it's good completely bombed out. that's one way to find opportunity in this environment.

the other is heretofore great leader that even as it's rolled over it's many ways the most reliable cash flow you can find out there wow, stamp of approval. >> so five stocks not three. >> if you look at j.p. morgan, relative to its peer group it outperformed by 10%. relative to the market it's flat it's the highest quality name in the banking sector but one of the highest quality companies in the world. i feel difficult with that name. j.p. morgan isn't a name i'm looking to cut out of my puff. >> i know karen likes j.p. morgan does the chart master like j.p.

morgan >> 2019 is a new year. >> obviously you have to speculate with a beaten down bank or go best in class the main morgan is going to -- >> i think financials have bounced a lot already and i'd be inclined to fade the group. >> all right, finally, good-bye carter. >> good-bye, i'm leave. coming up, amazon and netflix, could this be a sign a grander surge is ahead plus star board taking shares of the retailer sgiurng what this could mean for the retail space. much more "fast money" after this

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welcome back to "fast money," stocks adding to friday's epic rally leading the pack are the former market king kings. other tech giants like apple, google and facebook sat out the rally. are they about to restart their reign and will the rest of tech follow suit? >> if any of it is premised on

the golden globes then this is the tail wagging the dog for amazon it's great but doesn't matter. for netflix, it's bounced a lot. i think on a valuation basis i can't get there, when you think about the business model, the cost of that content, how expensive that is getting combined with the competition. this is positioning that we watched play out and to your point is this just day or two afterglow from the golden globes i think these won't hold these levels. >> that's surprising from you. >> it's end-of-year positioning. this was a rebalancing tieup a lot could have been tax selling. there's ten reasons why you could have been a seller here. >> it's interesting. you look at netflix, we talked

about that on friday if you look at the move in roku which i am a huge subscriber in. >> he doesn't know what it is. >> i sort of but i don't that stock was up 25% today having cratered in the last couple months. if roku is an indication, you can be long -- i say it again. you're long netflix. >> you bought roku on etsy oddly enough. >> what's going on with alphabet >> bottom line is that people are looking at that entire group of stocks a little differently i think they're figuring out that first of all i think alphabet should be treated differently from a regulatory perspective. the fact that we faang stocks for so long even though they all did very different things.

i think the regulatory overhang is something that put somewhat of a head wind on the stock multip multiple. >> >> check out shares of dollar tree, star board takes a stake in the retailer. so will the activist investor make money grow on trees we's explain plus disney land, does the mouse house weigh in much more "fast money" coming up next you always pay your insurance on time.

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dollar tree soaring on star board value's new stake in the company and the activist firm is looking to turn its investment into big changes at dollar tree which investors and consumers may want to watch out for. leslie picker is at headquarters with more. >> among those changes is the price point. star board says dollar tree should offer items as high as $2 it all boils down to time value of money and dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow the hedge fund says due to inflation and rising input costs, dollar tree is offering smaller and lower-quality products today than in the past. starboard is seeking a sale of family dollar which dollar tree

acquired for $9 billion four years ago but investors and analysts believe it has been a drag on the business lacking positive comp growth in 2018 starboard says if dollar tree implements the firm's plan, the shares would be worth 53% more than where they're trading the hedge fund has taken a 1.7% stake and nominated seven directors whom they have not yet disclosed. that would represent a majority in its current board size of 12. now, dollar tree issued a statement in response saying that, quote, look forward to the opportunity to engage with star board regarding the suggestions they may have. they added they will make a recommendation in due course but if history is any guide, star board could have a chance in getting some directors on the dollar tree board. the firm won over two dozen board seats last year, through settlements more than any other activist shop. but if the dollar tree side doesn't concede an outright

proxy fight may be on the table as the countdown to dollar tree's june annual meeting rolls on. >> leslie picker at headquarter headquarters they suggested raising prices 100% to yield a 53% increase in the share price. >> math works. >> is the discount store looking like a bargain buy >> when we go up to the smart board and we power pitch and one of the ones we did earlier -- it was dollar gen i would be concerned with dollar gen now because some of the things i read is they clean up dollar tree, maybe dollar gen would be a suiter. my sense is it would be dilutive to their share price but i think if target or amazon comes in and swoops it up, despite the fact they'll not in love with dg, i think dollar general has room to run.

>> this is a very aggressive filing we'll take over your board including your pricing including your prices, you're calling yourself two dollar tree that's an aggressive agenda. they've done a number of these before i don't know what family dollar would be worth now i guess if they came in they would say we'll sell it nearly at any price because we think it's a drag on the business. i don't know i wouldn't be a buyer up five bucks on the news because the company has trouble. the chance of them winning a majority is low. that's not news but i think you can wait and let it sort of settle down a little bit. >> i think it's an interesting story. their third quarter numbers were weaker on the top line and they had a tax beat which helped make that but they're well positioned

here i could understand why the starboard guys would be aggressive about let's be aggressive within the sector and try to put the screws to some of the competition. i think it's a name you can own. i don't think kblyou want to ch on this news. >> i think dollar general and dollar tree running into technical resistance this is a oneoff for everything karen said the business strategy doesn't make sense you're turning it on its head and recreating it expecting people to buy into it. i think it's a dead end strategy i think they're both sells. disneyland hiking prices for the second time this year. does the magic kingdom have the pricing pow ceo bob iger thinks ve does? li in times square, much more "fast money" still ahead

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