relatives to help them buy. >> it will be heartfelt leadership and then probably encourage people to get around it and get the homes while they can. that does it for the exchange. i'll be joining tyler and melissa on "power lunch" which begins right now. >> i'm tyler mathisen. welcome, everyone to "power lunch. optimism about trade talks but a slew of new warnings casting a shadow about global growth all the bad news in this market or not we'll examine that one this hour and a big exclusive you cannot afford to miss apple's ceo tim cook sat down with jim cramer, taking aim at apple's critics. details ahead and where the stock could go from here and battered blue. ibm one of the biggest dogs in the dow over the last year and five years so what will 2019 hold

ibm's jenny rameti will join us and "power lunch" begins right now. >> i'm melissa lee dow was up more than 330 points at its highest of the session and now up by 237. gain of more than %. nasdaq adding 60 points, up by 0.9% check out two movers at this hour pnc financial and bb&t both lower right now with regional bank index up just fractionally. bankruptcy fears, the utility stock trading at the lowest level of 15 years and nvidia down despite good nusews. more on this and the chip stocks coming up. >> i'm kelly evans and here's what else is happening at this hour after more than 125 years in business, sears has at least one

more day chairman eddie getting one more chance to save his company he has until tomorrow at 4:00 p.m. to make a revised offer and $120 million deposit reportedly testing a program to let brand names send free samples to consumers, based on what amazon knows they're likely to buy and the number of job openings hitting five month low and still about 800,000 more vacancies than formers to fill them in this country though. it has been a volatile session, like so many recently on wall street the dow now creeping back towards those session highs as you see there. up 250 some points are there, about. so let's go to bob pisani on the floor of the new york stock ek changes. >> the highs, the s&p 500. the s&p is up seven of the last nine sessions. a remarkable move to the upside. why is that happening? the sentiment improved dramatically look at what we've got going on here progress on trade talks. a strong jobs report

we have powell walking back the hawkish comments he made earlier and a great oil rallying here. the volatility has essentially collapsed. look at the vix. we were 37 and now the 20 range where it's been for a long, long time now the samsung headlines. if you waould have seen these three months ago, would have been way down. intensifying competition my heavens, samsung down 1.5% today. why? the stock already moved way in advance of these headlines down 10% since november and 25% in the last six months. are we oversold at this point? a lot of people seem to feel that way perhaps a lot of the bad news is priced in. look at the bad news the s&p 500 is up 10% almost since the bottom just about a week and a half ago. oil's rallied 18% and the vix is down 46% melissa, back to you >> bob pisani at the nyse.

tim cook sitting down with jim cramer for an exclusive interview weighing in on the critics. >> in terms of the nay sayer, i've heard this over and over again, jim i've heard it in 2001. i've heard in 2005 and '07 and '08 and '12 and '13. you could probably find the same quotes from the same people over and over again and i'm not defensive on it. this is america. and you can say what you want. but i'm giving you my honest opinion is that there is a culture of innovation in apple and that cultured innovation combined with these incredible loyal customers, happy customers, this ego system, this virtuous eco-system is something that is probably underappreciated >> you were surprised with the market reaction to both when you decided to not reveal units and when you revealed the short fall. >> i'm never surprised by the market, to be honest with you.

i think the market is quite emotional in the short-term and we sort of look through all of that we think about the long-term and so when i look at the long-term health of the company, it is never been better. the product pipeline has never been better. >> you're one of the critics and a price target which means you think apple is dead money for the next 10 months does tim cook have it right in terms of it's the culture of innovation and the latest stock tantrum is a speed bump in a longer road? i think apple is in a very strong position. the fact is you've got an installed basis growing and a very high retention rate which

affects customer loyalty that's eventually going to come back to the stock. the thing that has changed is they have given investors the impression they believe iphone would grow the next couple of years. while china's company has not been week, there's losing share in china and at these prices, people tend to hold on to phones three-plus years so you'll go through a period of weak iphone sales. maybe in a year or two they'll pick back up i don't think any of this is an existential threat to apple. >> did their pricing get ahead of the market? >> it's not so clear to me that's true. if that were the case you'd see weak demand at the high end. we're seeing very strong demand at the high end for the 10 last year the 10 x and the mass right now. i think they may have too many

models there are good enough phones particular low in china at lower price points and it might be true with the max that's up $1100, maybe that is too much. i think it's reflected people holding on to phones longer. there's an old song you're spending a dollar a day for the apple so you'll probably hang on to it for three plus years. >> when you say that they make you think that iphone growth will continue the next couple of years, do you think their messaging is not accurate? i don't want to say that they're lying or deceiving or anything like that, but maybe because of that messaging that there's a credibility problem on the street hey, you know what, we're not going to believe apple because we know people are hanging on to their phones for longer and the upgrade cycle has become elongated and they're not going to sell as many phones. >> the company clearly seemed to indicate they thought growth would continue they played down thoughts about

maturity of the market they think there was sufficient innovation to get people upgrading. initially they talked about they didn't think upgrade cycles were changing much and now they admit they have lengthening. so i think things are weaker than cook and company expected but he's also right that the underpinnings of the company didn't change. a lot of the analysts are like where are the products you see it a little bit at the ces show the consumer industry is in a bit of a lull. we see all these new technologies but they're not here yet so i think the technology is not quite ready for apple to come with major new products like a.r. glasses and so forth i think the technologies just aren't mature. >> steven, thank you so much for joining us you can tune in tonight to "mad money" for jim's full interview with tim cook. >> let'sto ylan mui.

>> reporter: there had been a lot of speculation the president's primetime address might be geared to address a national emergency the president is expected to make a case for the wall as an issue of national security, but multiple reports now that he will not declare a national emergency. back to you. >> if that's the case, is this government going to reopen any time soon? >> reporter: still no clear path out, kelly it seems like the president is talking to the people, democrats are making their case to the public but neither side is talking to each other. >> ylan, thanks again. about seven hours away from hearing from the president. lots of cool gadgets at the consumer tranelectronics show how about a $1400 skateboard there's serious business too and jon fortt is standing by with the ceo of ibm

jon. >> kelly, thanks and there's some fun and wow stuff with ibm too quantum computer, also some new stuff and ideas around a.i. and the weather. the ceo of ibm, thanks for sitting down with me just after you got off the stage after delivering the keynote. >> thank you, great to be here. >> news out of washington, ibm is one of the top companies as far as federal government contracts, about a billion dollars a year you tend to get in terms of that so i'm wondering at what point in terms of length on this shutdown, at what point does it start to have an impact on businesses like ibm that do business with the government >> i think first a couple of points on that we've done work with the federal government for a very long time so we are accustomed to work through these things so we're here and ready to go. but as i was mentioning to you earlier, i think the government

when -- they have done some good planning not everything, as you know, shuts down so there are different kinds of exacts in different places so it isn't as if all of the business is impacted. >> i want to talk about artificial intelligence. you put forth some new ideas that ibm has on stage, one of them project debater which is artificial intelligence not just able to answer questions or play games but engage in full-on debates on topics live with debating experts. listen to their arguments and then do a counterargument. how is a technology like that going to change the way companies tackle problems? >> so really what we tried to do was introduce -- i think people confuse all these different forms of a.i we gave the audience kind of a spectrum to think about. on one hand there's one task, one domain play a song. >> identify cats. >> see a picture on the other end, people often

talk about general a. imptli., is mimicking what you and i do, which is decades away. we wanted to introduce this thing called broad if i do one thing, it's not hard to train me to do something adjace adjacent if i'm an insurance company and i've been trained on roof types, once i've seen one roof damaged by hail, do i have to train to see every kind or i can see and identify hail on any kind of roof. so this idea of broad, this next level of a.i., it's really important for business because it does two things reduces a lot the training time and, therefore, time to market if you talk to anybody about why can't a.i. get going faster, it's the training time and so that will make a big difference for business. so any decision, you can learn the next adjacent thing. that's why i think the insurance and roof is a good example of that you mentioned project debater.

i would say take any one of your speakers at home and talk to it four minutes and see what it does not much it will do nothing. >> simple commands, retrieving information. >> it's speech to text to search is what it's doing what debater is able to do is i call it comprehension. so you can speak to it for minutes and minutes and minutes and it's able to actually understand what you're saying. and so what we've been working on, in fact unveiled some of it for the first time six months ago but here at ces we're going to pick a controversial topic every day. today it's should gambling be banned the masses can put in their arguments pro and con. they will go through, understand arguments, their veracity and it will build the pro and the concase. so for a business, right -- >> i also want to ask you about the global economic picture. >> okay. >> while i've got you. we have this announcement from

apple last week talking about conditions in china. there's some concern over german industrial output today. but at the same time the u.s. economy seems to be chugging along pretty well. you've got a global perspective. are you surprised by the china and germany announcements or does it line up with what you're seeing >> you know, i was just having a discussion, you know of the keynote i did this morning i was with delta, walmart and exxonmobil joined me i do see with clients today, they're looking for two different value propositions that line up with what you just said if i look at a longer arc of time, there's focus on innovation today what i see clients asking for is innovation and productivity at the same time. so i think that's a signal of how people are feeling they want to look at things and do both of these so that's definitely something i see for us i feel very good. we're good at both ends of that spectrum but you definitely see that move amongst what people are focusing on. >> but in terms of china and

germany specifically and some of those areas where the data is start to provoke some concerns for markets and for policy makers, are you seeing that or is it isolated >> china is a couple of percentages of business to us and we're focused on a few industries so i'm not a good barometer on that. in germany, we've done very good business in germany from so not necessarily. >> not necessarily. >> i want to ask you about quantum computing because you had a big announcement about ibm putting forth the first system to work on quantum now actually having full-blown quantum computing for business is still years away, but this is an important milestone and ibm has been doing more work on this than most other companies, arguably any other company how do you see this being used and what's your time frame before we really have a business case for quantum bringing in revenue for ibm?

>> i think you'll see real business, clients doing real things that are really of value in this two to five-year time frame. >> not just tests. >> no, no, no. we've already done 7 million experiments with that. the word you used was system and that's important you hear lots of people talking about i have formulas on a poiee of paper real systems, humans can spra interact with them they can be managed, monitored, taught programs. the announcement today was not only do we have the world's largest network of companies working with us and national labs, of the work they're starting to do i do see a priority of what kind of work people are going to do the first is around materials and chemicals. you're going to see logistics and things like risk management. for very obvious reasons to me, and i keep saying because quantum does not replace every kind of computer it's for a certain kind of

problem and it's the kind that the world doesn't realize how much things are approximated. systemic risks, you approximate things because you don't have the capacity or in the right time window to get it done so that's what it's going to arllow us to do and that's why you'll see people chomping at the bit to get in there and do that work. >> ginny, thanks for being with us. >> thank you, jon. >> jon, thank you very much. well, the dow is up more than 5% since christmas eve, but there is still plenty of worries out there. are all the negative possibilities priced in? bob pisani talked a little about it, we'll talk a little more. plus, we'll continue our investori investing for a lifetime series. today we'll get advice for people in their 40s. where should you invest if that is wrehe you fit "power lunch" right back

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this market. welcome back, good to have you here with us. >> thank you good to be back, tyler. >> the stock market seems to be saying one thing, but i guess if i've learned anything by following the markets for years, it's usually the bond market that's more accurate as a predictor. what's the bond market telling you right now? >> you're spot on, tyler i think that it's clearly a divergence between what the stock market is saying and the bond market is saying. in terms of looking for economic slowdown, looking at the recession prospects, the bond market has been a much better predictor historically that was the case in 2007. what it's saying now, tyler, is that the 2 to 10 spread is just about 15 basis points. we are down and many parts of the curve have inverted so these are dangerous signals. >> you say that one way or another, powell just capitulated. not to put it too crassly, but who or what got to him

>> i think two things got to him. the suspicion is once that he had too many criticisms from president trump and he had to change that is, i think, the risk to the investors that the fed's independence is on the line. the second, the near term feature, tyler, is the fact that between december 19th when he was relatably hawkish and his decision last friday to go relatively dovish, what happened was a big change in the market, that the market is yanking the fed's chain and that is equally troublesome. >> sri, in the past you have been an accurate predictor of where rates would be and you have stuck by your notion that rates will remain lower for longer and they have, actually goldman sachs today is saying that they believe that for this cycle, the 10-year rate has

pae peaked i wonder if goldman is right, it is destined to invert given the tightening that powell is signaling. >> great question, melissa my expectation is that sometime during this year, i'll give myself the rest of this year for the forecast to come true, is that you are looking for the 10-year yield to be below 2.50 i've always said it is going to go down significantly. and in terms of the 2 to 10 spread, the spread which is earlier this morning around 15, 16 basis points, you invert and go negative. which means that we are talking about a recession if not by the end of this year, by the middle of 2020 to begin >> sri, is it possible that you're right about rates but not because of the recession, that there's just no inflation, especially with the collapse in oil prices can the expansion keep going even while this flattening is playing out before there's any downturn like you're talking about? >> kelly, the problem with that is if you have no inflation, and

we have not had much inflation except in the mind of the fed, which has repeatedly forecast inflation rising which has never come true. under this setup the fed actually increased interest rates four times during 2018 so even if they back off and they don't increase rates any more, that is not going to help because you have had the negative impact of the rate increases along with very little inflation, as you mentioned, kelly. that's going to do enough damage to the economy and that's what i think we are witnessing right now. >> all right, sri, thank you very much for your insights as always good to see you. >> thank you. chips are getting chopped after they had seen a big rebound since christmas. which way could those stocks be headed next? and the stalemate over the governmenthuown stdcontinues. what will break that deadlock? that and much more on "power lunch.

welcome back to "power lunch. a bit of a wild day for semi stocks after samsung issued a warning on declining chip sales. names like nvidia, micron and advanced microhave all broken

lower. todd, how do you size up semis at this juncture >> sure. the bounceback in the semis since the lows has been a little bit of underperforming compared to the nasdaq. we're up about 7% from the lows where the nasdaq is up about 11%. so underperformance and today's announcement didn't help we have this purple m.a. which is the 50, downtrending below it we're still seeing und underperformance the weak one is nvidia -- no, we're looking at amd we have a very strong double bottom here. amd is one of the favorite holdings in my portfolio look at that 50 day. amd is a standout stock within the chips as i just jumped ahead of myself. the weak one is nvidia i think it has a long way to go before we improve the technical position here. so as we flip over there, you'll

see that we are a ways away from the m.a. so we'll leave it there so nvidia underperforming compared to amd. >> erin? >> i like nvidia one of the reasons is because it's so beaten up. it looks for us to be unlikely to get much cheaper at this point. not only that but it has really strong fundamentals. we're looking at about 50% profit growth for 2019 it's got good growth in restaurants, some of the gaming as well as data center spaces, so overall, yeah, the semi conductor industry is one industry that we do not recommend to buy in general as an industry. the memory prices keep going down the profits, the expectations from just six months ago went from a positive fi5% to a

contracting 7% so a complete flip we feel nvidia is one of those stocks that is still able to grow, create more profits and is a good price right here. >> shaping up as a battleground group for 2019 thanks to you both for more trading nation head to our website or follow us on twitter @tradingnation back to you, kelly. >> thank you, mike ahead on "power lunch" apple ceo tim cook sitting down with jim cramer for an exclusive interview. what cook is seeing in china's economy. plus our special series, investing for a lifetime if you're in your 40s, you need to tune in. plus the stocks that have rebounded the most since that christmas eve sell-off when "power lunch" continues. and now the latest from tradingnation.cnbc.com and a word from our sponsor.

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welcome back to "power lunch," everyone, i'm sue

herera here's your cnbc news update at this hour. secretary of state mike pompeo meeting with jordan's king abdullah amid trump administration statements about a planned u.s. troop withdrawal from syria pompeo said the planned withdrawal will not complicate washington's anti-iran campaign. three people were killed and more than 200 injured when a packed train careened into a stationary train at a station in pretoria, south africa the death toll could rise as 82 people were seriously hurt the cause of that crash is not yet known. a spokesman for the u.n. refugee agency says saudi team runaway should not be sent home against her will he said his organization was in daily contact with the 18-year-old who was seeking asylum after being stopped at an airport in thailand. >> people who are claiming to be in need of protection, who are

trying to claim asylum, they cannot be sent back to a location where they are claiming their life is in danger. >> you are up to date. that's the news update this hour kelly, i'll send it back to you. >> sue, thank you very much. trade talks between the u.s. and china are going into tomorrow and it appears progress is being made. tim cook just sat down with jim cramer for an exclusive interview weighing in on the trade war and a china slowdown >> the chinese economy, it seems to us, began to slow maybe in the second half of the year. it was on some sort of rational trajectory we believe, based on what we saw and the timing of it, that the tension, the trade war tension with the u.s. created this more sharp downturn i believe that's temporary because i think that when you really look at it, it's in both

countries' best interests to come to an agreement it is a complex, very complex trade agreement and it needs to be updated but as i've said before, i'm very optimistic that this will happen and so that clearly will be good not only for us, frankly, but i think more about the world in general. the world needs a strong u.s. and china economy for the world economy to be strong >> our next guest says don't expect a trade deal any time soon joining us is stephanie miller, the senior vice president of height capital markets why are you so cautious about this. >> i think the big question is who has been designated to negotiate? it's robert lighthizer who is a very protectionist person in the united states. it's hard to see how someone with that level of protectionism can reach an agreement with

china. >> it was perceived as a sign of progress and the market is rallying that the talks have been stemmeded a day. >> i think that's all positive our view was are these going to be a bellwether that shows a positive sign or negative sign lighthizer is not there. he's the one who needs to be in the room or president trump himself. his deputy is there, who has similar views as lighthizer but not necessarily the person who can make a decision. >> isn't this the way trade deals are built ultimately you start with the number twos and number threes and they set some groundwork and present progress and then the number ones come in and then the ultimate leaders show up somewhere for the big ceremonial moment. >> absolutely. i think we're working towards that one of the things that happened about a week ago was light hizer told friends that he really is not interested in what he calls empty promises he doesn't want a bunch of concessions by china that on their face maybe look like a big give to the united states but in

reality aren't substantial so i think what he needs to see, what the trump president needs to see are true concessions by china before they'll feel comfortable making some on their side. >> the chinese have made some concessions leading up to these talks. they have reduced punitive tariffs, resumed purchase of soybeans, they have drafted legislation about forced technology transfer, so couldn't that be seen as a good sign that the chinese are actually willing at this point to continue making those concessions? they have already given ground. >> yes i think at the end of the day, though, on soybeans specifically, these are incremental maybe and the communities that are impacted by the tariffs, would view them as incrementally positive but it's not going to unlock the amount of soy exports that would be needed i do think that we have some future talks coming up that could show additional signs of progress. >> is it the real critical thing here the verifiability of

whatever is agreed to and there is some mechanism by which we are able to say, yes, indeed, you are complying with respect to intellectual property, with respect to forced technology transfers and so forth >> yeah, that's important. bringing it back to how the markets are reacting, clearly the talks today are positive and i think that's what investors are reacting to. i think the problem is investors want this to just be done with and there's a lot more time and dpoerksz th negotiations that need to happen. >> tune in tom "mad money" for the full interview with tim cook. reports are saying president trump will not be declaring a national emergency in his address tonight. let's bring in robert costa, a political reporter at "the washington post.

if he's not going to say that, what is he going to say? >> the president will lay foundation for taking possible executive action, maybe even declaring a national emergency later this week. but at this moment he's trying to test congressional democrat to see how they react should he make this case of a crisis at the border and continues to demand money for his wall. >> the government has indicated, robert, that the refund checks, the irs tax refund checks will in fact go out and some think this could release some pressure but federal workers, unpaid federal workers owe $438 million in mortgage and rent payments just this month. at what point does congress start feeling the pressure from their districts? they start getting phone calls to their offices from these federal workers who are unpaid >> the acting director of the office of management and budget has assured congress that those tax refund checks will be going out, trying to tweak around the different procedures at omb.

but you're so right, you have to pay attention to the congressional cracks, in particular among republicans republicans for now are mostly holding with president trump's ultimatum about a border wall, but some of the moderate senators who are up for re-election in 2020 are already calling to reopen the government now the eyes of reporters in the country are on house republicans. that's why the president is going to country tonight, pitching americans broadly, but really pitching his own party to hold firm. >> and he has another opportunity to do that at the state of the union, which is, what, the 29th of this month or something like that? >> that's right. it's unusual for president trump to make a succession of these televised national addresses tonight will actually be his first time ever speaking to the country from the oval office >> so let's talk a little bit about the way out, if there is a way out. as i was gaming this over the weekend, i thought the time honored washington ploy is to set up a commission to examine something, and that in this case

perhaps that is one of the things that could be an element of a solution. in other words, both sides agree to a commission to study border security, comprehensive immigration solution the president is then able to say that i got the democrats to agree at least to discuss a wall or a barrier and the democrats can say we got the president to yield and reopen the government and we are game to discuss a more comprehensive solution to this i haven't heard anybody talk about that, but just having watched washington for my whole life, it's often the way these things go. >> i appreciate that perspective, and you're right, often commissions are floated as ways to get out of an impasse. at this time there is no such reporting that indicates that's under discussion, in part because both sides are digging in part of the political brinks manicsh brinksmanship is you have president trump signaling to his pace he is going to the edge to try to get this border wall.

how does this end? talking to top people at capitol hill and the white house, they say he may move toward a national emergency to try to say to his party he did all he could. then at that point maybe one side cracks. maybe republicans crack and they have to reopen the government. there have been deals discussed before beyond a commission there was talk about protecting dreamers through the daca program in exchange for wall funding. some democrats would like to see that floated again, but those kind of discussions, democrats tell me won't begin until the government is reopened. >> robert, thank you robert costa, "washington post," appreciate it. >> thank you. coming up, day two of our series of investing for a lifetime today advice for people in their 40s. how much do you need in stocks versus bonds we've got some answers, next

our investing for a lifetime series rolls on. today we focus on planning in your 40s here with us is tim mauert. tim, great to have you with us people in their 40s are caught from all sides they have got to think about their parents, their own retirement, their kids' education. how do you -- how do you prioritize here? >> it's really, really tough i have a special affinity for this group because in addition to advising them for over 20 years, i'm one of them 40 somethings are seeing their influence and their income begin to peak, but at the same time their expenses always seem to be more than they can possibly handle one of the things we need to do at this stage of the defagame i isolated a few of the most important things we need to do for the present and the future in order to ensure we get something done otherwise it seems like there is too much we need to do at this stage of the game. >> let's talk about the present

then, tim. what should 40-somethings think of first and foremost for today? >> one of the things that even in the present that is part to conceive of is the future, right? so when we think about retirement planning for well down the road, it is something that requires an effort that begins hopefully last decade, right, in our 20s, our 30s but at this stage of the game it becomes increasingly difficult to put that money aside. it's hard to ask a 40-something to go from 0 to 6% or 6% to 12% with their retirement savings. one of the great innovations in retirement planning is the auto escalation feature so if you can't pledge to jump up your retirement investing in your 401(k) from 5% to 10%, you probably can pledge that each year you'll increase it by 1%. you should be able to do this with your own 401(k) at work if not, if you're self-employed, you'll have to do it on your own. each year increasing that contribution by whatever

percentage you can afford at that time. >> in terms of your savings and investment accounts, you say craft the optimal portfolio. what should that look like in your 40s you're looking at a life span of 40 more years potentially. >> you certainly are one of the challenges you have is up to this point in time, a target date fund was probably going to do the job. the truth is the vast majority of the work that comes with our investing is done by just saving and getting started. once you get into your 40s, you're probably at a point where you're seeing that 401(k) balance begin to balloon a little let ta let's take a closer look at it the optimal portfolio will be slightly different for each individual based on their unique willi willingness to take on risk. >> that was an 80% equity portfolio that you just showed. >> yes, it was, tyler. that doesn't mean that it's 80% for everybody. but assuming you are that kind of typical 40-something, as we said earlier, you've got a long

way to go still so i do want to see utilityiyou tilting in the n of equities and do not ignore international stocks as well. >> and 40% international if i had been 40% international over the past several years, i would not be feeling terribly good about my portfolio today. >> that is such a great point, but international stocks make up over 50% of the total global market capitalization. so if you want to bet everything just on the united states owning the next 40, 50 years, then you may indeed stick with the domestic bias that most people do and have less in international. but if you really want to be fully diversified, you'll have 50% u.s., 50% diversified internationally. >> tim, thanks for your advice, we appreciate it >> great to be with you. the s&p 500 has had a huge rally since the big christmas eve sell-off we're up about 6% since then up next we'll ask a trader if the run can continue. a high stakes episode of

"the profit" premieres tonight at 10:00 p.m. on cnbc. don't miss it. mine, mine.t there's , and it always will be forever and ever. the rx 350l with 3 rows for up to 7 passengers. experience amazing at your lexus dealer.

netflix has bounced back big since that christmas eve sell-off but is it about to run

out of gas joining us is steve grasso what's your perspective on netflix, steve >> how are you doing, tyler? you just framed it properly there. the amount of sell-off, the only thing we didn't talk about is look at how much this stock has come in. so you're coming in from ultimately around $420 some odd dollars but let's look at 386 for just perspective on the name so if we go back to the 100% move it's 386. what do you get? here's the bottom. this is the bottom in the market then you see an outside day here, an outside reversal day. so you have a lower low, a higher high. so that reverses trend so we're up 40% basically from that bottom. what do the levels tell you? so this is where anyone who looks at retracements, you want to be a seller once we get to that bounce zone that's the 50% and the 618%

retracement. look at where those levels are 309 to 327 that is your sell zone the stock currently is around $320 so maybe you have another 2% to the upside here for this first level. if it overshoots, you can go to 350. but i do think it's running out of gas if you look at the s&p, i'll tell you why. >> you have made my fibinachi start to quiver, steve so what happens next does that little chart go up does it roll over? >> it does roll over, ty in my opinion that's what happens. and i think the last punch you get in this bounce is going to be the china trade being resolved or something getting done or powell pauses. if powell pauses, you're going to get this last little lift in the overall market so this is the same way that the

chart looked with netflix, same way it looks here. >> yes, it does. >> if you get to the 50%, 2581 where do we tap out today? 2579, just shy of that level the markets listen to the technicals if we can rally, 2637 is the point you want to eyeball if you're a seller and that is roughly around the 50-day moving average. i think we get a last push up, maybe ultimately 2700 range and ultimately i think we wind up breaking below this. sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but i think we test that low of 2346. >> very interesting. >> i think ultimately we get down to about 2200 in the s&p. >> very interesting, steve grasso, putting a stake in the ground thanks. >> thank you, sir. and this go anywhere, check please is next hey there people eligible for medicare.

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most somber moments. >> right. >> and indeed he sees this that way. >> i think we'll say 51% hacks for another time how do figure out what we're going to do if he does not declare it a national emergency. it is time for the closing bell, i'm sara iefeisen. the dow and s&p headed higher. positive signals from u.s./china trade talks. we'll find out whether the market is sending an all clear signal plus, we'll head out to the jpmorgan health care summit for an exclusive interview with the ceo of a biotech firm. we'll ask about the companies use of a cutting edge and controversial gene edtin