tv Closing Bell CNBC January 8, 2019 3:00pm-5:00pm EST
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at is usually reserved for the most somber moments. >> right. >> and indeed he sees this that way. >> i think we'll say 51% hacks for another time how do figure out what we're going to do if he does not declare it a national emergency. it is time for the closing bell, i'm sara iefeisen. the dow and s&p headed higher. positive signals from u.s./china trade talks. we'll find out whether the market is sending an all clear signal plus, we'll head out to the jpmorgan health care summit for an exclusive interview with the ceo of a biotech firm. we'll ask about the companies use of a cutting edge and controversial gene edtin gtech
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no -- technology. >> we'll speak to one of the senior economists that wrote the report. plus, a firm response from tim cook to his critics. >> this is america and you can say what you want, but i'm giving you my honest opinion. >> more from jim cramer's exclusive interview with the apple ceo coming up. "the closing bell" starts right now. welcome to "the closing bell." first let's check on the markets for you. the dow is up more than 330 points at the highs of the day, still growing strong, up a full%. 235 points boeing and apple, definitely a better tone on china driving the action. >> up 1% on the dow. let's get right to our top story. ylan has the latest from washington. >> reporter: well, the trade talks will go on for a third day
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and that was an unexpected move. china had allotted just two days for these meetings the u.s. had left the time frame open so the fact that they're sticking around to get more work done appears to be a pretty good sign another potentially positive development, there are reports that the follow-up meeting is already in the works and that one would be between cabinet level officials such as ambassador lighthizer, secretary mnuchin and the vice premier reports are that would happen later on this month. no word whether it's in beijing or washington. the u.s. trade representative's office says there is nothing on the official schedule right now. but we are expecting to get a statement once this current round of talks wraps up tomorrow the headlines out of beijing are that the two sides narrowed the differences between them remember, the u.s. sent china a list of 142 requests, so a very long list for them to work through. they also made progress on purchasing u.s. goods and services that's what commerce secretary wilbur ross described yesterday on cnbc as a first step,
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reducing the trade deficit structural reforms and enforcement, those are more intractable problems that will take more negotiation. deals like this usually take years to hash out. the white house and beijing are working under a very tight timeline right now, guys back over to you >> thank you very much for that. of course as we said, that played into today's market performance. speaking of china, last week of course one negative sentiment came out of apple. tim cook weighed in on the issue earlier when he spoke with cnbc's jim cramer. >> the chinese economy it seemed to us began to slow maybe in the second half of the year, and it was on some sort of rational trajectory we believe, based on what we saw and the timing of it, that the tension, the trade war tension with the u.s. created this more sharp downturn
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i believe that's temporary because i think that when you really look at it, it's in both countries' best interest to come to an agreement. it is a complex, very complex trade agreement and it needs to be updated but as i've said before, i'm very optimistic that this will happen and so that clearly will be good not only for us, frankly, but i think more about the world in general. the world needs a strong u.s. and china economy for the world economy to be strong >> be sure to catch more of that exclusive interview tonight on "mad money," 6:00 p.m. eastern. that sets the tone joining us to discuss which country has the most to lose amid these trade tensions, elizabeth economy, senior fellow and director for asia studies and gene spurling, economic
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director under presidents clinton and obama. thank you both for joining us. gene, this strategy that the u.s. continues to take that our economy is doing a lot better than their economy and their economy is getting slammed by the trade war, just how much leverage does that give the u.s. >> i don't think the u.s. has any particular leverage over china. as tim cook was just saying, i think we're in a world economy when either the u.s. or china sneez sneezes, it does give the other and the rest of the world a cold and so they both have a lot to lose i feel like the nature of our electoral system probably gives china more leverage. president trump really can't afford to start losing support among some of his republican senators from agriculture communities. he really can't afford to do things that look like they are risking leading us into a
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recession, which he knows would be very harmful not just for the economy, for his political prospects. but he also has a tough political challenge if he looks like he is just being too weak, because remember, this is a president who set the u.s./china trade deficit, goods deficit as his main criteria. it was $347 billion in obama's last year. it will probably be over $400 billion. so i have a feeling that even if he declares a pibit of peace th will be calming for the market, that's not going to take away necessarily the political controversy at home. >> elizabeth, your view. do you think that china has more leverage >> i don't actually think that china has more leverage. it is, as gene said, a lose-lose proposition. nobody wins in a trade war i think on the face of it actually, china is at greater risk simply because it is more exposed to the u.s. economy than the u.s. economy is exposed to
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china. i also think it's a mistake to assume that just because we have an electoral system in which our president has to be voted in and out that somehow xi jinping isn't facing a lot of pressure at home. the chinese economy has been slowing. reform economists are out in force, very disappointed that xi has not made progress on structural economic reform so i think there are a lot of issues at home in china right now and the trade war is simply adding to the pressures that xi jinping is facing. >> gene, do you look at what's happening right now, the fact that this administration is tackling some core issues as it relates to doing business in china fairly and openly and wish that you and your administrations had been more aggressive in confronting the chinese? >> well, i do think the obama administration was more aggressive i think one of the real problems was that in china wto there was
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an anti-surge provision that was supposed to protect u.s. workers if there were surges, which the bush administration never utilized one single time i also think that as china has grown and become stronger, it is more fair for the u.s. to say if you want to be a superpower, you want to be at the big boys and big girls table, this notion of the commercial espionage, the intellectual property theft is more and more intolerable. and so i do think, you know, i have been very critical of the way that president trump has handled things i think it's been reckless, i think they have had no strategy, but i do support the willingness to break some eggs and even have a little bit of turbulence to send china a message that this type of intellectual theft and commercial espionage is just not acceptable anymore >> elizabeth, long term if a deal does get done, do you think long term relations between the u.s. and china can go back to
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normal or as they were, or have they been permanently damaged. >> well, i think on the trade front we can make a lot of progress if we see the type of structural economic reform that the administration is calling for in china i think that will be a win-win actually for both countries. can the relationship go back to where it was before? i don't think so xi jinping is a transformative leader in china. he has a vision for china that's far more ambitious and expansive than the leaders before him. it's not just about trade and investment, right, it's about china's role in the world. it's about human rights, it's about internet sovereignty, it's about how the rules of the road should be structured globally. and i think in this respect we're going to find ourselves increasingly at odds with china. i think even president xi's most recent statements around taiwan and the necessity of reunification with taiwan, he's setting out markers there in the security front, in the political front, that i think are going to be very difficult for the united states to negotiate with china moving forward
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>> finally, gene, prediction can there be a win-win situation in a deal like this or is there going to be a winner and a loser? how are both sides going to sell it >> look, this is how i look at this i think right now just for the reasons elizabeth said, that both sides have a lot to lose right now. they have an incentive to come together and get some kind of agreement. but i caution against people thinking this is one and done. i think it is much more likely that the way we see the china/u.s. trade relationship the next couple of years is moments of peace followed by moments of controversy and remember, the kind of things they're agreeing to are the hardest things to verify, the hardest things to enforce, so i'm somewhat optimistic that we might have some kind of peace or temporary peace, but i would expect that we're going to also see more conflict over the next two years. so i would expect to see a more
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rocky road going forward >> okay, guys, thank you both very much. elizabeth economy and gene sperling what does all this mean for the markets? joining our closing bell exchange, charlie, kenny and rick santelli at the cme in chicago. kenny, do you think it was that tweet from president trump saying that they're making progress in these talks that encouraged the market higher today? >> i think it's that tweet i think it's the tweet and the fact we're going on to a third day. the news that's coming out in china, that the president came out in china and said they're making real progress i think all that stuff is pointing to a better outcome i think the market was dying for positive news. i think it's enclosure in the last couple of days you've seen the reaction in the market it's almost like they have released the pressure valve a little bit as long as it continues down that path, i think the market moves higher the minute you start to get angst or you get someone with
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the hair up on the back of their neck, the market starts to get nervous again. right now it feels okay and it feels good. >> char llicharlie, are you telg investors to get back in >> we thought that the market got oversold last quarter. we think that you shouldn't get in and out of markets ever it's dangerous to come in and out and try to time markets but it's enclosure that the market is a lot cheaper today than it was a quarter ago. i just want to say i've heard so many times today about how the chinese economy is slowing the chinese economy is not slowing. people are confusing a second derivative with a first derivative the chinese economy is growing faster than any time the u.s. economy has grown the last ten years. they're going to consume more copper last year, more oil than it did, eat more hamburgers. the chinese economy is growing it's going to continue to grow and so we have to be careful not to be confused in our analytics between a second and first derivative. >> maybe not my more top-end
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iphones, though. we'll have to wait and see for those numbers. rick, talk us through your take on today's action in your world and particularly that very disappointing data out of europe >> yeah, no, europe continues to be disappointing some of their metrics for the service secretary, manufacturing confidence but like the u.s., it's not falling quickly, but they have gone from basically slightly above average a year ago to basically a little below average and we've gone from an "a" to a "b" in much of our data. case in point would be job opening labor turnover it took us a long time just to get over 6 million we've had several 7 million handles. to back track to 6.88 million wasn't a disaster. charles talking about china, the problem with china isn't so much we could argue their growth or how much less of it they have now. i understand it's a derivative argument but it really goes to the point.
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why are some of the chinese industries and why is there some demand in commodities versus last year a bit higher because of the stimulative effect the problem around the globe is we still need to continue to prime the engines where in the u.s. it's starting to run better on its own and that's key. that brings me to the interest rate complex the low yield close for this year for 10s is 2.55 we're hovering at 2.72, the high yield of the day it's going to be the high close of the year. the point i'm trying to make is as the vix comes down and equities stabilize although there's still volatility, it certainly looks like interest rates have started to carve out a new range. the double top that we had in october and november of 3.24, the low yield right around the mid-2.50s, the notion now is we'll probably hover up back towards 2.80 continuing to take our cue from what's going on to the equity markets dollar index and the euro, we could argue the dollar index has
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slimmed and euro has risen above some key technical levels, but boy those trades are going in slow motion. for two and a half months they have really not gone anywhere. >> okay, guys, we will leave it there. thank you very much. charlie, kenny and rick. still to come, wharton school of business jeremy siegel is joining us and he predicts stocks will rally in the year ahead. so far he has been correct. >> it's a few days in but so far he's riot. >> we'll debate that with him coming up. and japan's softbank scrapping its plan to take a massive majority stake in a startup next what's behind that decision and what it says about the broader funding landscape. the dow uisp 256. "the closing bell" will be right back alerts -- wouldn't you like one from the market
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fidelity. hey, batter, batter, [ crowd cheers ] like everyone, i lead a busy life. but i know the importance of having time to do what you love. at comcast we know our customers' time is valuable. that's why we have 2-hour appointment windows, including nights and weekends. so you can do more of what you love. my name is tito, and i'm a tech-house manager at comcast. we're working to make things simple, easy and awesome. japanese conglomerate softbank has scrapped its plan to take a controlling stake. >> as recently as december
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softbank and wework were talking about a deal instead softbank scaled that way back investing just $2 billion in addition to its $4 billion commitment announced last year it will come from softbank itself not the $100 million vision fund. that gives wework a blended valuation of $38 billion and raises softbank's total stake to about $10 billion but not that controlling stake that was discussed. now, according to a person familiar with the negotiations, public market volatility played a major role here. softbank shares have plunged about 30% over the last three months and, if you remember, the ipo of its mobile unit was a bust tech overall has been under pressure and key vision fund investors, saudi arabia and abu dhabi balked and that left less firepower and raises some questions about how some of the world's biggest unicorns, many of them infused with soft bank money, will fare as they look towards ipos or more private
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funding. uber's ceo said in a journal interview today that market turmoil will not derail its ipo plans, though he added it doesn't need to go public this year that may not be the case for wework and other unicorns if they find access to private capital tougher. i will sit down with adam newman and will bring that interview to you on thursday. >> a great interview can't wait for that. of course we don't hear from him and the company very often i guess the question is if a softbank type investor is willing to pull such a huge percentage of their planned investment into one of these companies back, does it not have big implications for how tough it's going to be to ipo these companies coming up and whether that is the volatility or less availability of capital? they may have missed their moment
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stratosphere of the deca-corns and depends on what bankers think it could pull in there's talks that it could look for $120 billion valuation and it's up there and wework is not talking about an ipo any time soon we'll see if that changes with the investment from softbank. >> okay, d thank you very much. we've got under 40 minutes to go here before the closing bell a check on the major averages. rally mode, fifth time in the last six sessions if we close up s&p 500 going strong everybody's higher except for the banks. >> we can discuss that coming up, as well. the world bank is set to release the latest read on the global economy 4:00 p.m we're going to talk to one of the authors of the report as soon as it hits the tape
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♪ welcome back to "closing bell." up 1.1% on the dow the high of the day was 333. all three of the major indices up around a percent. let's check on individual market movers jeffries downgraded jpmorgan to hold from buy. it's down 0.4% because of it the interesting thing of this downgrade note, sara, for the broader sector and not just
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jpmorgan but the name that grabbed the headlines and more focus on the prospect of rate hikes going forward and the expectation of less of them and i say that's priced in and dragged down the bank stocks for the second half of last year jpmorgan is the most premium valued of the big banks. outperformed last year that's why that's the one downgraded on this news and the fact that note's fairly constructive of what they hope for earnings season kicking off next monday and that note this morning weighing on the bank sector the only sector down on the s&p. >> the set-up for banks on earnings, it's been underperformance. >> the set-up for earnings is as good as you could hope in one way. decent volumes should be okay and beat most quarters last year and didn't help share prices. >> i'm watching sharyls of pg&e. bank of america, merrill lynch adding the company to the u.s. 1
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list which is a collection of best investment ideas among the analysts saying p & g with strong organic growth and believes momentum to sustain the stock higher and lay out the fact they outperform the s&p 500 in the last 4 recessions bank of america doesn't think we're going into a recession and a period of market turbulence it's attractive because it's defensive. you need tooth paste and toilet paper but p & g is showing growth bank of america says that will sustain or they see signs of that you have growth and defense. >> growth and defense. up half a percent. next, we'll speak to jeremy siegel with his thoughts on the market and what he says is a game changer for stocks in a positive way
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strong day financials are the only sector that are red right now and for the second day in a row something i'm watching, small caps outperforming and could be a positive signal. >> not by much quite even. >> still doing better and they had lagged for 2018. let's get a news update right now with sue herrera. >> hi, guys. london's heathrow airport briefly halted flights after a reported drone sighting. this comes three weeks after multiple reports of drone sightings caused travel chaos at nearby gatwick airport new jersey senators booker and menendez with a news airport to demand an end to the partial government shutdown. >> the folk who is are suffering are folks who already work the hardest for this nation. including 5,000 federal workers here in new jersey there are air traffic controllers who keep our skies safe and our planes running on
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time the stress and the pain and the hurt to their family to be without pay. ron desantis sworn in as florida's governor this morning. the former gop congressman was elected by a thin margin over tallahassee mayor. in the address he laid out the vision for the next four years. >> you have up to date that's the news update this hour back downtown to you. >> sue, i can't believe this uk airports, what is up? >> i know. >> how does it -- i haven't seen any other country's airports affected in the same way by drones that children can buy for $100 pathetic. >> exactly this is the first and they had to deploy military this morning at heathrow as they did at gatwick because as you well know heathrow is the busiest airport in europe and it creates chaos all through the entire system. >> i understand how it's
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possible to create this chaos and doesn't seem to be a problem for anyone else around the world. >> i know. >> gatwick closed for like 36 hours. >> yes. >> ridiculous. >> and -- and ruined christmas for lots of people missing the flights to the holidays they booked >> bad timing. >> complete nightmare. anyway we'll sort it out. change the laws. match whatever the laws are here no-fly zones they have to sort it out. >> everybody's vulnerable now. 27 minutes left to go in today's session. the biggest movers of the day. bob and bertha are here. bob? >> you know, s&p's up 7 of the last 9 sessions. 3 to 1 advancing to declining stocks sentiment is better. look at the trade names. boeing up 3.8%. huge turnaround just in the last week and a half. that's the key here. sentiment improving and not just the trade talks but that's the headlines and then strong jobs report powell on friday a huge oil rally
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you put it altogether, the vix is collapsing. we were 37 a week and a half ago. we are now 20. that's a drop of what? 46%. let's show you some of the statistics since the bottom a week and a half ago, the s&p 500 up nearly 10%. oil's rallied 18% and the vix you just saw that chart down nearly 50% very different than on that closed december 24th and even december 31st very different. >> bob, thanks uptown to bertha kooms for tcoo >> we're seeing a mixed bag. bio tech strong. started the day lower and now higher not the strongest but the sixth straight day of bio techs beaten up so heavily last year. but the standout among the big cap techs today is really
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amazon amazon now has a market cap of $809 billion, nearly $100 billion more than apple's market cap. apple up for the second time in four days but sara noted, the small caps are on fire russell 2000 up more than 5% year to date, better than the other indexes and a wide number of stocks really beaten up and not just health care names benefits from the conference and cheesecake factory up today. also the software name avalar up finally some of the stocks hit today of illumina. and those chip stocks with samsung joining apple issuing a warning particularly when it comes to chip demand back over to you. >> bertha, thank you. so, have stocks already
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bottomed let's ask university of pennsylvania wharton school of business professor jeremy siegel predicting gains this year can you answer that question have we seen the bottom? >> i think so. i mean, i wouldn't be surprised if we had a little test of that bottom but as bob pisani was saying, that christmas eve was a scary session. and i think that will be the bottom of this reaction. i mean, i think the values just became overwhelming at that point and, you know, you mentioned i said it's a game changer that the ten-year, you know, the rising ten-year rate, a constant threat to the market last year, i mean, has collapsed. it is under 2.75%. the you told me last fall we would have that, i'd say, you know, what are you smoking i don't think anyone predicted that so i think that's a real
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positive for the markets and i think that with the price earnings ratio as it is we will have a good year in stocks >> jeremy, sorry to ask the sort of obvious follow-up question but the level of rates has improved, sure if you're a risk investor but the shape of the yield curve hasn't and so do you not think that this pullback in yields is somewhat bearish for the economy? >> well, you know, i've been on record saying i think the december hike that the fed made was a mistake. i don't think it's a deadly mistake. i think that long-term interest rates are more important to investors fort noel low allocators, you're -- stocks are long-term assets so they compete more with the bonds than with the treasury bills yeah i do think it got flatter and i think this means a slowdown. i think where it's like 2016 we had that slowdown in the economy
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and it was what? a pause that refreshed i'll tell you that labor market report on friday, a blockbuster. you couldn't hope for anything better in terms of strong payrolls and a strong uptick in participation rate which i think alleviates some of the pressure on that labor market i think when i saw friday i heaved a sigh of relief saying, wow, that's -- i don't see any recession in the cards with that sort of a payroll gain. >> see, when i teased the fact that you had a -- found a game changer in the market i thought it was powell's newfound flexibility and patience and removal of the use of the word automatic pilot coming to balance sheet policy didn't that go a long way to restoring sent snmt. >> that happened on the same day as the report. but, right after that december
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19th statement which i think was way overly hawkish, i think they got blowback right away when we had williams on the air waves, loret loretta muster and other fed officials and began to backtrack and i think we saw powell saying, whoa, you know, we may have been too hawkish there in december now tomorrow, we get the minutes and might have a reflection there but i think they themselves didn't expect such a strong reaction and felt we went too far. so i saw that coming it is a relief are they actually going to lower it certainly not in january with that payroll report. only if we get weakness will they think of lowering it right away but i think we're on hold for 2019 certainly in the foreseeable future. >> going back to the prediction, professor, i think you said 5% to 15% equities performance in the year ahead.
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>> yeah. >> what if earnings or gdp growth significantly disappoint? >> i think that's what's so attractive we are looking at 16 -- i guess now with the increase maybe 16 1/2 times last year's earnings now, that's not a very high multiple so even if there's no earnings growth, you're not paying a price for stocks. you're not valuing the market in anything that's a crazy valuation. if we take the last 75 years, the average price earnings ratio of the s&p has actually been 17. so even if we get low single digits, in terms of earnings growth, there's still value in today's market and with the dividend yield at 2.1%, wow. and the fed not raising and the long bond at 2.75 we may see
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this year finally value stocks outperforming growth stocks on the basis of the lower long-term interest rates. >> people say a slowdown of growth from the hot levels of last year. recession in 2020. 2021 what do stocks typically do in the year ahead of recession if that's where the forecasts are going? >> well, i mean, if we're going to have a recession, i would say you know, it's next year or year and a half, we probably have some downside. remember, we almost had that 20% correction of a bear market from october to christmas eve so you know, that's quite a bit of a decline already if you told me that there would be recessionali at the end of 2, declining real gdp, we have more downside in the market but let me say even at that scenario and it's by no means a certain
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outcome, stocks are closer to the bottom than certainly what i think is the top so in other words, a lot of that fluff i think got blown out of the markets long term investors. yeah if you wait you might get a few points lower but if we don't have a recession you're going do see a really great market here in 2019. >> jeremy siegel, as always, a pleasure to speak with you thank you for joining us. >> thank you for having me. we have a news alert on hedge fund performance leslie has the details. >> hrf putting out data on the hedge fund performance on a fund weighted basis for 2018 showing losses of 4.07% for the year now, what's interesting is you can see there, it surpassed the s&p 500's total return last year by about 31 basis points, the last time this happened was a
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decade ago also interesting to note that year 2008 was the last time the total return in the s&p 500 was negative down 37% that year. of course, the midst of the financial crisis hedge funds saw losses of about 19% that year. >> leslie, they beat the s&p for the first time in a decade but this is not going to lead to wild celebrations. >> it's still losses. >> the scale of that beat. >> still losses. exactly. not too much to write home for but it's certainly a slightly better outperformance than they have seen in recent years so, you know, i guess you take your little victim riories where you get them. >> i don't know about that that's fairly damning indictment there we go. thank you very much. now, eddie lam pert's bid to save sears may still be alive believe it or not. we have the latest on that next jix and the top of the hour, we get the world bank latest economic report and get instant reaction from one of its authors
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it turns out eddie lam pert's bid to rescue sears might be alive courtney reagan is outside of a sears store in new jersey with the latest courtney, how's this possible? >> reporter: it is amazing, sa va it seems like it's a beyond 11th hour lifeline but sears is still alive as of right now. bankruptcy judge is essentially giving eddie lam pert, the chairman of sears and the largest shareholder, him and his hedge fund some extra time to get financing together in order to try to buy a slimmed down sears at a previously scheduled bankruptcy auction that will be held on monday but lam pert now has to put up $120 million as a deposit by
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4:00 p.m. tomorrow sears and lam pert have a long complicated history. he was ceo until the bankruptcy was filed in october he has his hedge fund spent years and lots of money on a number of complex engineering maneuvers to keep the company running and business isn't good. debt piled up. totalling more than $11 billion in liabilities sears and kmart stores deteriorated over time not refreshed, remodeled wasn't uncommon to see empty shelves and sears holdings hasn't made money in seven years. in 2011, more than 4,000 stores. around 700 when it filed for bankruptcy lam pert's bid aims to keep 425 of them and in the last full year report, annual sales of $17 billion. the stock high of $144 in april of 2007. when shares were delisted from
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the nasdaq in october, they were worth just 37 cents. now there is some silver lining for broader retail if sears does end up liquidating retailers like home depot and lowe's benefiting essentially from the donated share that sears has been giving in areas like appliances and then mall operators i talked to said when a sears store is closing and fill wit a new tenant or tenants, rents anywhere four and nine times higher and there are 10 some still linings it will be a sad day for 50,000 employees. but that day is not today. back to you. >> all right and the saga keeps going and going and going. thank you. up next, boeing announcing record delivery numbers for 2018 we have the details when "the closing llrernbe" tus. ♪ slap on some cologne
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i am a techie dad.n. i believe the best technology should feel effortless. like magic. at comcast, it's my job to develop, apps and tools that simplify your experience. my name is mike, i'm in product development at comcast. we're working to make things simple, easy and awesome. welcome back boeing out with its delivery numbers for 2018 hey, phil. >> and even though the numbers fell short of the company's guidance it didn't hurt the stock today. the stock moved higher as the deliveries last year hit a
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record high. look at how they have grown since 2010, 806 last year. a 40% improvement and why last year, you have to look at the 737 max line ramping up production there going up to 52 per month. they were able to overcome supply chain issues and point out they were expected to deliver 810 planes last year they delivered 806 just shy of the expectation. the investors, they like the fact that you look at the backlog and you see strong order growth in fact, 2018 orders of 893 planes grew the backlog slightly. now up to just 5,873 planes. that's the production out there. for shares this is a company reporting earnings later this month. the stock again moving higher today, almost 4% higher. another stock to take a look at. look at airbus there had been some talk that
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perhaps airbus's numbers not that strong and reported deliveries, final results tomorrow, but preliminarily, 800 airplanes delivered last year. back to you. >> phil, sir, both of them in and around 800 for 2018. who delivered more of the long-haul airplanes? commands a higher price and margin for the manufacturer. >> i think -- i haven't looked specifically because we are waiting to see the final numbers from airbus. i think boeing will have a slight edge in terms of those wide bodied planes what you want to look at is what's going to happen as both of these companies focus so much on the meat of the market, whether it's the a-320 or the 737. those are the cash flow generators of both companies. >> okay. phil, great stuff. thank you very much. >> boeing adding 80 points to the dow's rally. next we'll be back with the
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closing countdown. is the fund built to sell or built to last? etfs are only part of a portfolio. so make it easy to explain. give me a quality fund that helps me get clients closer to their goals. flexshares etfs are designed and managed around investor objectives. so you can advise with confidence. before investing, consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. go to flexshares.com for a prospectus containing this information. read it carefully.
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the dow slightly outperforming and the big three indices all kind of in line today. here are the sectors on the s&p today all of them positive but one. financials has improved a lot as we approach the close essentially flat and there you can see the rest up at least 0.8% real estate topped but then some other more bullish sectors follow it. up around a percent or more. the euro off the back of the disappointing german data. it was expected to gain. not quite sure what chart we have there but anyway, the euro down 0.3% today. fell on that data so the dollar's up a little bit bob? >> disappointing german jumer
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i ins. semi conductors would have been down 7%. lg electronics warned, second biggest television maker in the world, similar comments. >> october or september we would have been down january is a new month, new year. >> the bad news is priced in samsung down 1.5% on one of the worst commentaries in years. smartphones, chips, whatever you're talking about that's a sign to me that i'm -- relu reluctant to say washed out. the s&p up 7 out of the last 9 sessions and going into earnings season and expecting other comments to be cautious and not just samsung micron, fed-ex, apple. not positive comments and today we didn't drop too much. i'm very encouraged by it. i still say we have the positive trade sentiment, the powell
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comments those are the -- it's the macro things moving the market right now. >> financial's worst sector, bob, with a downgrade. surprising to see that effect. >> yeah. still no movement at all we even had yield starting to move up. >> there goes the bell the dow up 243 points. just over a percent for the dow. that does it for the first half of "closing bell." sara, back to you. another strong session on wall street. welcome to "the closing bell." i'm sara eisen along with mike santoli. let's take a look at how we finished the day on wall street. gains across the board that makes 5 out of the last 6 sessions positive closes for the dow and s&p 500. dow out with a gain of more than 1% 256 points higher. boeing was the leader. s&p 500 also good for a gain of
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1% and guess what. all of the sectors actually closed in positive territory financials lagging all day and closed actually pretty much flat but mostly a lot of green. nasdaq composite up a percent and the russell 2000 index of small caps a second day in a row outperforming everyone up 1.5% today. a much better tone to the markets. oil's been rising. yields are higher. the dollar a little bit stronger some optimism around the u.s./china trade talks the ceo of pharmaceutical company editas talks about the company and for a drug treating a disorder of blindness. controversial practice of gene editing. but first, joining us to talk about the market day, michael yokashami. and breaking news world bank, releasing the prospects. ominous title here
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darkening skies saying that the global economy will only grow 2.9% this year down from 3% last year citing softening international trade, manufacturing activity and elevated trade tensions. the report also noting substantial financial market pressures in some large emerging markets an expected to grow a weaker than expected pace at 4.2% among advanced economies expected to grow 2%. in 2019. that's a slowdown from an estimated 2.2% growth last year. >> i mean, i'm looking forward to talking to one of the authors of this report, a world bank director of economics joining us to discuss on a little bit and looking forward to that because the title is much more sort of worrying than the content. darkening skies. >> very world bank imf title. >> overall 2.2 to 2 for developed markets and good do
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get the gauge on whether or not the market's been overreacting. >> i think the point is that expectations are coming down for global growth and the outlook is also darkening and both of these organizations, imf and world bank, worried about the slowdown in global trade and the breakdown in the tariffs and what the organizations stand for. >> and what it means for -- a long-term structural vuler in kk -- vulnerabilities. >> we talked about this yesterday in terms of a slowdown rather than a recession is new bull market term. >> it is. >> 2.9% global growth next year is still pretty good. >> pretty god. >> if we hit that, the market would celebrate that >> most likely presuming it's relatively balanced yeah i don't think that's a terrible scenario but look markets move faster than, you know, multi-national
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organizations like the world bank and so i do think the market is kind of assimilated itself to this idea we might have -- sub-3% growth globally considering emerging market, long-term growth rates is a deceleration. >> we're trying to figure out there's follow-through on the buying action and the tone is positive. >> yes. >> is it all clear have the fundamentals and the worries and the risk factors changed enough or, is this a continued bear market bounce from oversold conditio conditions >> we are around the point to distinguish as one of those things for another for a while you can operate with the premise that the lows we saw in late december are probably the lows for a while unless you get a new negative shot. that being said, we came up to a level within the u.s. market, the s&p 500 -- closes at 2574. one month ago all the traders were saying the s&p absolutely must hold 2581 business that was
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the february low spent three and a half weeks below the level people said that's a doomsday level. now bumping up from the low on that same level. and i don't mean it's magic. an exact point but the zone is where you would want to see real buying the market is healing itself, repairing itself volatility index down. oil down treasury yields up removing that sense of panic around the same fundamentals of a couple of months now. >> michael, friday was massive gains and two good days to start. you start to feel encouragement we have seen the bottom in december >> i am encouraged and i think really the market was pricing in before powell made his adjusted comments that the federal reserve was going to be perhaps imprudent in terms of raising too fast and i think now that it's pretty clear he's backing off that dialogue and it's my expectation you're going to continue to see progress on the trade front with china i think that the fundamentals
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are such that the market oversold at this point and i don't think that the bounce that we are seeing right now is really just a bounce in a bear market i think it is more reaction to the reality of what conditions now are. >> so where are you buying specifically >> well, i think what you have to be careful about is chasing names that have too high of valuation and looking at names that have sold off, many of the technology names, even some of the financial services names today which sold off pretty significantly based on the downgrades of s&p, there's values out there reasonable values and i think that, you know, again, it is hard to play the game on a short-term basis but looking at the fundamentals of sectors, they're looking pretty solid right now >> i would also say even let's assume that that is the low for now in desks it would be very
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unlikely that it's going to really look like a prolonged "v" getting back to the old high. >> i agree. >> it will likely ent ir a sideways choppy period. >> barclays cut the price target to 27.50 from 3 thousand dollars, the fourth wall street firm to do so in the last week alone. mike, we have been talking about this they were all at too high levels given the pullback in the markets to expect what 20% gains. >> that's right. >> on the forecast. >> marking the forecast to market essentially wall street consensus tends to collect around on a year ahead basis up whatever, 5% to 10%, 5% to 12% in that zone the market down 10% in 1 month and most of the targets on paper, that's the adjustment right now. >> i want to go back to what you said we won't see a long check
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marked -- trying not to say tick that's the english word. >> hockey stick. >> nike tick do you call it nike tick swoosh. >> tick? >> way late here surely you can say that february to october was a great example of that last year. >> yes. >> so, the norm is now that and downside's got to be - >> february to october a great example of - >> not seeing a lasting tick up from there swoosh. >> even more to the point from february that was the low but you basically chopped around a lot and it wasn't until april and then again in june when you've got the other up lags it was a much more of a two-way market for -- since last january. >> you don't have anybody and downgrading forecast for this year saying, oh but 2020, 2021, back to the races again. no one's got that optimism. >> we could have an inside year which is that, you know, the high for this year and the low for the year are within the
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range of last year i mean, that's not unheard of. because we're so far from the highs still. >> michael, do you think you can get bullish seeing the wall street firms sort of capitulate? is that a sort of buy the rumor, sell the fact moment >> no. i think it's more as mike said it's a marking it to market. you can't be out there saying 20% up when 10% up would be really good news but, you know, i want to talk about the trading range issue. if the dow went up 2,000 points, let's say back up to -- in the 27 number, 26 number, somewhere in that general neighborhood, we would be saying, oh my goodness, what an incredible rally the market has had but really we are just talking about sideways moves so i think if you look at a trading range, yeah, if you look at it bracketed between the low and the high i think trading range makes sense but from today to the upside in the trading range is still a pretty healthy return so i think when optimism -- if
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optimism continues to push back into the forefront which is certainly what's starting to happen now, i think being in the trading range but moving towards the upside of the trading range is still good news for investors. >> just to be clear, wall street's strategist bullish on 2019 and expect gains in the market - >> especially after we got that decline in december where it took out the low targets absolutely. >> let's move on and talk about apple spooking the markets last week after slashing its first quarter revenue guidance and not the only major tech company with a down beat outlook. samsung of course. josh lipton has a look for us. >> samsung joining apple saying it expects q4 operating profit to decline 29% and estimates revenue to decline 11%, both below consensus. company pins the problem to mounting macro uncertainties, lackluster demand of memory
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chips and as well as intensifying competition in the smartphone business. samsung is world's larger maker of smartphone controlling 20% of the market which thinks the overall smartphone market likely contracted 3% in 2018. samsung stock fell today though it was already down hard in 2018 the stock dropped 24%. investors pay close attention to samsung business it doesn't just produce devices but supplies critical components, for example, it provides displays to apple and just last week, of course, stunned investors when it slashed the revenue guidance for the holiday quarter as it sold fewer than expected iphones. the company like samsung also talked about macro problems. ceo tim cook telling cnbc that the chinese company is economying with trade tensions putting additional pressure on that economy he said back the you guys.
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>> josh, thanks very much for that mike, i mean, it is interesting. clearly, the individual stock price performances for the companies is affected by their recent year's performance. samsung underperformed and apple holding up better and surprised to see it not spook the wider markets as the way apple did it's a better gauge on a broader economy than apple is. apple is much more high-end product maker and apple has cheap phones, as well. and josh rightly pointed out the memory supplies the different tech components. >> it is true. again, micron down 50% from the high and the market to a place where smartphone, you know, stagnation was already in -- you know, the expectations and then just valuations got chopped down i don't think that means that we have built in all the bad news but -- >> talking about demand. not just saying that - >> absolutely. >> but if we saw a bank guide down or a report on monday with
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this sort of miss that would be chaos again, would it not? or have we already pulled that in >> fair to say especially for a bank not supposed to -- they're not like rushing, you know, rushing the orders out the door do make the quarter. right? not that kind of a business the way it is with chips. >> what do you make, michael, of samsung's down beat forecast and really echos what we heard from apple last week. >> yeah. well, obviously, it's part of the global gdp story in terms of slowdown but, you know, i think there's a lot of noise right now about how really the cell phone business, handset business is a dead business, not any innovation that is going to cause consumers to upgrade and i just don't buy that. i heard that for 15 years. that there's just always -- it's always never going to get better and i think it is going do get better i think when 5g comes out it is a game changer you will see chinese handset
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makers clip into apple's market share. you see a clip into samsung's market share and gdp affects the fortunes but it is a handset business and it's a mobile consumption business so you really going to have cable tv on phone and for that reason i think this doom and gloom around the cell producers, phone producers is probably overstated at this point. >> apple was a winner today. apple ceo cook sitting down with jim cramer today defending the company against the naysayers. listen >> in terms of the naysayer, i have heard this over and over again, jim i have heard it in 2001. i've heard it in 2005 and '07 and '08 and '10 and '12 and '13 and find the same quotes from the same people over and over again and not defsive on it. this is america. and you can say what you want. but i'm giving you my honest
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opinion is that there is a culture of innovation in apple and that culture of innovation combined with these incredible loyal customers, happy customers, this ecosystem, this virtuous ecosystem is something that is probably underappreciated. >> then you were surprised with the market reaction to both when you decided to not reveal units? >> i'm never surprised by the market because i think the market is quite emotional in the short term and we sort of look through all of that. we think about the long-term and so, when i look at the long of the term health of the company, it's never been better. the product pipeline has never been better. the ecosystem has never been stronger the services are on a tear >> this looks like a good one. catch more of the interview
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tonight at 6:00 p.m. eastern despite what tim cook was saying, mike, the stock down 33% in the last 3 months i think it's interesting he's coming out and speaking and defending apple in a way that we haven't heard that much. >> standing up and i don't think really people -- some people doubt it but i don't think most doubt apple will be there, whatever the next thing is and will have a premium brand product and participate in the trends and do it very well what the market adjusts to is the idea that a very sudden shortfall of demand for high-priced products in a category itself doesn't seem to be growing fast anymore and there's a transition and the market is figuring out what to pay for this. >> in the defense there saying i've heard it before, heard the naysayers. ecosystem is underappreciated. i don't think so the benefit. slightly odd he feels a need to say that and pin it on as a defense and saying something that we already all do appreciate and it kind of points -- neither of us will
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change off the ecosystem and might delay buying another iphone. >> i think wall street gives lip service an i think that a ceo of an enormous company whose stock is down 33% has to say we're misunderstood. there's something here and endeavoring value and a stability in the market. >> what is your view in terms of apple at the moment? >> well, first of all, your comment about ecosystem, i think there's a code happening here. i think the word ecosystem is not maybe the words underappreciated ecosystem is another way of saying we have customers in a loyalty loop that is going to keep them loyal to our product because you have to have our product to get the app store. i think that's really what actually he's saying how's it underappreciated as an ecosystem? i don't know. >> does that mean you're buying the stock? >> well, i think apple at this
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price is a cheap stock it sold off 35% or something like 35% down 20% over a 12-month period. it has a very, very high dividend and a name that i think is pricing in right now pretty bad news i think the fact that it hasn't continued to go down and maybe the fact that it wasn't really negatively impacted by samsung's announcement showing that people think it's best of breed and an opportunity here. >> i think also the most important thing to say is 60 seconds of tim cook's defense. it will be good to hair the full nine or ten minutes coming up tonight. you don't want to miss that interview. michael, thank you for joining us great do see you as always. up next on the show, we'll hear from one of the authors behind the world bank's just out pessimistic outlook for the world bank and the darkening skies. >> it could be this sort of
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the world bank releasing its outlook for global growth in 2012 202019 expecting the global economy to slow as trade and investments weaken joining us to discuss the report, ayhan kose from the world bank and partial wrote the report darkening skies sounds like a very ominous title talk to us about why you chose that >> thank you thank you, sara. when you look around the world, you see a clear slowdown under way. you just mentioned we downgraded the global growth forecast we expect growth of 2.9% this year especially in advanced economies we're expecting a slowdown, emerging economy and the growth will stall and downgraded the growth forecast for these
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economies quite significantly relative to what we had in june. >> so what's the downgrade for developed economies and the u.s. specifically >> for u.s., growth is still strong and we are expecting, you know, to be around 2.5% this year. coming, you know, last year close to 3%. when you look at your area, growth slows from 1.9% to 1.6% big downgrades are in emerging market and developing economies. there relative to what we were thinking in june, downgrade is around .5 percentage points. there are three main engines u.s., euro area and china. three of them together accounted for 50% of global gdp and 60% of global growth last year. this year all these three economies are going to register
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slower growth. >> so, two big factors it seems like weighing on global growth sort of converging right now there's the trade war, more barriers, more tariffs and then there's tightening of financial conditions which one do you think is weighing more on the global economy? >> we think that especially last year tightening financial conditions played a big role but what we have seen over the past two weeks central banks, especially the u.s. fed, sending a message that it's going to be flexible going forward, look at the data carefully chinese central bank basically reducing reserve requirements and good news. in the context of trade tensions, there are, you know, negotiations under way this is good news and we are hoping that these negotiations will ultimately lead to a resolution stakes are high when you think
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about trade. u.s. and china, of course, they account for one third of global economy and if these trade tensions escalate and these two economies slow down further than what we are expecting, the global implications could be, you know, quite significant. >> so we know we'll see growth a lower level the year ahead but what about 2020 and 2021 the market seems to be reacting or certainly last quarter reacting to a fear of recession at some point in the next couple of years is that possible in your eyes? >> in our baseline scenario, we do not see a recession especially when you look at advanced economies yes, growth is slowing down. but it is still quite a healthy level. and when you look at basically typical likelihood of recession, for example, in the context of united states, those numbers are still quite low relative to the numbers we saw, you know, in
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previous recessions, prior to previous recessions and do not expect a recession but unfortunately we do expect persistent slowdown even in 2020 and 2021 so the big message is that this is high time for policy makers to do everything possible to reduce uncertainty and implement constructive forward looking policies >> how much is china slowing, really >> so, china last year we think that reduced their 6.5% growth very healthy number. this year we are expecting 6.2%. and we marginally reduced our growth forecast relative to june in the case of china now, these headline numbers could be misleading in the following sense. they are still, you know, quite high but when you look at high frequency data, at the global level, numbers are suggesting
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sharp slowdown you look at pmi numbers you look at manufacturing orders, you look at new export orders. they all point to a slowdown that's why we are seeing that the skies aren't darkening over the global economy policymakers need to react. >> finally, were you surprised to get the resignation letter from your boss president kim three years before his term is up >> yes you know, we have a press release on this and that explains everything. we have our members, 189 of them and they're going to pick the next president >> all right well, thank you for commenting that was more than the thought ayhan, thank you for joining us. >> thank you. >> updating the global growth forecast. >> 2.9%. president trump set to give the first oval office address tonight making a pitch to the nation on funding the proposed border wall. we'll discuss what to expect and
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valuations what it specifically is high yield index etf relative to iei and basically matches up with the high-yield bond average maturity it is one divided by another this above 100 is outperforming. treasury, corporate spreads narrowing and then underperforming, corporate spreads are gapping out. conditions going up. you see how steady it was through 2018 a little bit of a dip with the correction in the stock market here and mostly very sturdy. credit was a firm element of that market. and then, of course, we drop way off with the correction starting in october so here's the balance currently. we had a tentative bounce and then continued higher and supporting the rally so far. the rebound rally in stocks and a pretty good gauge of the damage done and regained a part
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of that. >> i guess the most stock thing is how equal the performance was for most of 2018 in the broad momentum to the upside of markets had. in terms of that selloff in q4 last year, we didn't really see the same differentiation in equity markets at that point even though the sort of momentum broke down in -- >> yeah. >> equities didn't see that differentiation. >> i mean, equities -- it was a similar time when it broke down and so what's interesting about the dynamic recently is a lot of times the corporate bond market leads the equity market and sniffing out problems or saying corporate cash flows are in trouble and right now it really chased equities lower and people saying maybe that's a net positive >> i guess i was saying that high quality stocks and low quality stocks all sold off opposed to differentiation. >> leading into the period high quality outperformed. >> thank you very much. time now for a cnbc news
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update with sue herera. white house counselor conway is touting president trump's right to do what is necessary to keep the country safer just hours before his first oval office speech to the nation on the border wall. her comments came while talking with reporters outside the white house. >> i think the president is going to bring his case directly to the american people i know you're covering it and he neet needs to cut out the middle statement because there's misstatement and lies told about him every day. just looking around. so he needs to make sure that he can get his message directly to the american people. baltimore's mayor announcing that michael harrison will be the city's next police commissioner, the police superintendent for new orleans since 2014 he has been on that city's force for 20 years. former arizona cardinal coach bruce arians to be named the head coach of the tampa bay
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buccaneers he spent 2018 in the broadcast boost as an analyst and would replace cutter who was fired after a 5-11 season at tampa bay. you're up to date. back downtown to you. >> all right sue, thank you up next, we'll take you live to the jpmorgan health care conference in san francisco to speak to the ceo of editas duncan just protected his family
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welcome back editas, a leader in gene editing technology is planning drug trials for the most common cause of childhood blindness. >> down 15% in the last year, could a successful trial help turn that stock around katrine bosley joining us now to discuss. tell us a little bit about this gene editing technology and these trials that you are doing. >> at editas medicine we are
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working on making medicines that work at the level of dna to correct mistakes in dna, to be a durable therapy for patients with really serious diseases our first experimental medicine is to treat a disease called labor congenital type 10, a form of blindness and we're on the threshold of starting trials in people with this first experimental medicine of edit 101. >> and so where have we come in the last couple of months? there was some articles in "the wall street journal" late last year that suggested some negative results particularly in china. where are we at the moment >> so, we're working on medicines to treat people with serious diseases our first program we filed with the food and drug administration late last year so they could review that data package, make sure it was acceptable to take forward into tests in humans and that was accepted and allowed by
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the fda so our next step is to start the clinical trials later thisyear which is really an important advance for the field because it's going to be the first treating in the body crisper medicine anywhere in the world and exciteling for us at editas medicine and also very exciting for the field and most importantly for patients with this serious disease. >> katrine, the stocks went up on this day and a lot of public outrage when we lenned about the chinese researcher who genetically edited babies i think. i mean, do you feel like you're entering a controversial world >> first, let's be clear what the researcher did in china is essentially the worst example of whatnot to do with this science and we've said that clearly. and the leaders in this field have said that clearly, as well. there are very ethical and appropriate ways to use this medicine and we're focused on
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not only doing -- making exciting medicines and the right way. being rigorous, transparent. the full oversight of the fda, engaging with the patients and the public that's part of developing a medicine in the field with a really new, cutting edge technology like this we take that responsibility very seriously. >> katrine, what specifically is proprietary about what editas does i mean, the baseline role of certain genes i'm assuming is sort of known on some level in the public domain so to speak so what do you do that isolates particular techniques or medicines from them? >> we have a unique technology platform that is based on a technology called crisper. crisper cast 9 and crisper cpf-1. the scientific names of the basis of what we work with and what that allows us to do is
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with the knowledge of the human genome as you said is what we as a society understand the sequence of that genome and how mistakes in dna can lead to serious diseases what we're working to do is to essentially repair those broken genes so with these molecules we have, these gene editing molecules, to deliver very specific molecules that can fix those broken genes, fix the dna, to then help patients with those genetic diseases. >> thank you. >> katrine bosley, thank you for joining us. >> thank you. president trump making a first address from the oval office tonight and if history is any previous guide of speeches, we'll take a look at some of the impact it could have on the markets tomorrow that's ahead. but first, the new set of tech toys are ready. jon fortt has more
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>> oh, well, ces is huge and can be hard on your feet fortunately there's some gadgets that help you get around i'll show you what segue and others have sehere coming up along with support, chantix is proven to help you quit. with chantix you can keep smoking at first and ease into quitting. chantix reduces the urge so when the day arrives, you'll be more ready to kiss cigarettes goodbye. when you try to quit smoking, with or without chantix. you may have nicotine withdrawal symptoms. stop chantix and get help right away if you have changes in... behavior or thinking, aggression, hostility, depressed mood, suicidal thoughts or actions, seizures, new or worse heart or blood vessel problems, sleepwalking, or life- threatening allergic and skin reactions. decrease alcohol use.
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jon fortt is there and joining us now. >> what is this? >> what is that, jon >> reporter: you saw what i was standing on before actually one of those is powering the back of this gokart it's segue's 9 bot go cart pretty cool. security was on me pretty quick when they saw what i was trying to do. we took it outside now, beyond that, of course, we not just having fun with gadgets. we are also talking to folks like ibm's jenny and she just a couple of hours ago talked about artificial intelligence, why that is so important to ibm's future also, talked about the new advances they're making in making it conversational and useful for business. >> what it is able to do is comprehension. speak to for minutes and minutes and it's able to actually understand what you're saying.
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it's a technology to go through, understand our arguments, their voracity, how many people feel a certain way and build the pro and the con case and for a business, right? >> reporter: so beyond that, we have got mercedes. diamler here introducing electronic vehicles, autonomous technology. ces, more than a place for tvs and phones but beyond that, there's also a lot more artificial intelligence and voice platforms have become a key player here, whether it's amazon, google, google announcing new capabilities for assisted amazon also continuing its expansion into home after the ring acquisition with capabilities of garage doors and more so, the samsung booth is right over here as well they always have home appliance technology all of this is really centering on trying the take advantage of ai these days and get even more integrated into every day life there's talk about the end of
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the smartphone era, the sales kind of tapering off a lot of these companies are looking for that next leg of growth, not clear what it will be yet and lots of fun ideas, guys. >> go karts. i think that's what it is. how fast does that go if you opened it up more? is it a kid's thing or -- >> reporter: how fast? 0 to 12 miles per hour in just 2 seconds. so i was -- i was going easy out there because we are on tv you know i don't want to knock anybody over but once i get the hang of it i don't know i know you like to buy electric vehicles. >> that's true we had a competition of scooters we weren't that impressed with the segue and not cutting edge and maybe something new about it >> harsh, sara. >> reporter: that go kart body attaches to the thing on the back come on now. >> anyway, we love it. thanks very much, jon fortt f us
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for the first time in his presidency, donald trump will be giving a primetime address to the nation tonight from the oval office >> we took a look at some major oval office addresses from previous presidents and the subsequent dow moves that accompanied them the following day. these history-making addresses usually resulted in a market
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dpan t gain the next day with the exception of richard nixon's resignation speech which saw the dow close almost a percent lower the next day to what extent will the president's address tonight mean markets might reopen lower tomorrow joining us to discuss this, andy busch and terry haynes andy, i'll start with you. it was surprising yesterday when the announcement was made that this address would happen that we saw the market sell off what would you be looking for tonight that could either elevate or ease investor concerns >> well, having just come from the u.s. government, i can tell you that they're keenly focused on what the market narrative is when it comes to these things. i would say there's really two outcomes here. either we have more certainty about the government shutdown or we have less and so more certainty would be
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something along the lines of the president saying he's going to work with the democrats, they're going to find a solution less certainty would be saying that this is a state of emergency. i think what we've seen leaked already is that he's not going to go down that path but this is a different president. this is a president that has surprised a lot of people. so i'm not sure he's going to follow the normal path of what most presidents do, which is try not to upset the markets just to remindi everybody, the biggest moves we've seen have to come when they do the state of the union address. the biggest one was bill clinton's last state of the union address in 2000 where we saw the market sell off close to 3% >> so, terry, what are you telling investors and what are you hearing from them as far as what sort of issues within the broader speech about the shutdown and the border they can expect and could move the markets? >> well, fundamentally, sara, so far this is not a huge event this is reminding people of the obvious.
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25% of the government by spending so this is not a huge event. federal government employees have not lost a paycheck yet so on and so forth i don't mean to think they're inconsequential. there have been small issues related to the shutdown, but we really haven't engaged that yet. what you're going to hear from the president tonight, i think, is from his perspective forthrightness they're going to continue. this is not a situation that is a particularly large issue from a market perspective, but it's a very fundamental issue in terms of border security, in terms of the security of the country. and they're going to try to run it that way. what markets are going to get out of this is this shutdown will last for a while. and as a result of it lasting for a while, you know, what you're going to get is a marginal increase in uncertainty in the markets. >> terry, stepping away from the
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market impact on this, has the significance of a presidential oval office primetime address decreased over time? do you think of the importance of it during the nixon administration, for example, versus today when you have a president who delivers his message as he thinks it on twitter. >> well, exactly so, wilfred what you have, i think, is back in the nixon days or, you know, even -- frankly even in the early obama days, social media was just getting going what you had is a world where an oval office address was a fairly momentous occasion and now what you have is the president, the government on all levels, president, congress, congressional leaders and the like, you know, communicating every day. and so the idea of an oval office address being something out of the ordinary that's designed to indicate a
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particular momentous occasion is lessened that said, president trump hasn't done this in two years. so what you have is a world where he gets to make his case you know, we'll see his ability to do that in a more set piece fashion. >> let me just add -- >> a quick follow-up. >> let me add some context this is a very different environment. the global financial system is changing, the united states is changing the way that it approaches the global financial system and global trade. don't forget that. this is part of that the government shutdown is one thing, but trade with china, looking at trade agreements overall and the u.s. dollar overall and how the u.s. fits into that, those systems from back in world war ii and world trade organization are all being called into question right now that's part of the driving uncertainty that's hitting the markets. >> okay. well, that opened up a whole can
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of worms we'll have to have you back, guys thank you. agent busch and terry haynes. hulu out with new subscriber and ad revenue numbers details, plus exclusive reaction from the company's ceo it's so simple, i don't even have to think about it. so i think about mouthfeel. i don't think about the ink card. i think about nitrogen ice cream in supermarkets all over the world. i think about the details. fine, i obsess over the details. think about every part of your business except the one part that works without a thought. your ink card. chase ink business unlimited. chase ink business unlimited, with unlimited 1.5% cash back on every purchase. chase for business. make more of what's yours.
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cnbc's julia boorstin sat down exclusively with hulu's ceo. hulu says it now has 25 million total subscribers, up 8 million in the past year. >> hulu also announcing its ad business grew 45%. here's what was said about hulu's 2019 outlook. >> we expect to grow more this year than we did last year that's certainly our objective and our goal and we find that we have consumers who are coming from broadband only we have consumers coming in as mobile only. we have consumers who are switching from your traditional pay tv subscribers to hulu as well when they start to sense what live can do. >> 25 million, up 8 million, mike, is a pretty rapid pace of growth a way lower base than netflix, but it's an indication of the threat that netflix faces. >> i don't even know about threat, but basically how a lot
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of these can co-exist. you can have growth in at least the top two or three players i think with smart tvs and everybody views these as make your own bundle, there might be some running room for i think all of them to gather some. >> tomorrow minutes, powell. >> fed minutes, yeah. >> so back to the fed focus. >> if the rally continues. >> it's been a good day here on wall street. more discussion coming up. "fast money" begins right now. "fast money starts right now, live from the nasdaq market site overlooking times square. tonight on "fast" stocks higher once again today, but the wall street strategist who called the market sell-off says we are not in the clear yet. plus, bank stocks sitting out the rally today and a top technician says there is more pain to come for the group we will explain. first, we start off with apple the tech giant jumping, up with 2% today as ceo tim cook said the headwinds the company is dealing with are just temporary.
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