>> the federal government remains shut down for one reason and one reason only. because democrats will not fund border security. the government shutdown enters its 19th day. that's topping your five at 5:00 here's what else is happening out there. apple, reportedly, planning mar major iphone production cuts we will hear from tim cook coming up. u.s. trade talks with china just wrapped up from beijing we will take you there live going four for four. the dow looking to lock in four straight days of gains that's the longest win streak since november, and a possible

lifeline for sears why a $120 million payment today could save some 50,000 jobs tomorrow it is wednesday, january 9th, and worldwide exchange begins right now. ♪ you got to keep your head up ♪ you can let your hair down ♪ you got to keep your head up good morning welcome to worldwide exchange. i'm frank holland. i'm holding down the fort for brian sullivan for right now futures are pointing to a slightly higher open on this wednesday. the dow is on a three-day winning streak its first since november. let's get to the latest on the shutdown, and president trump's fiery speech from last night, elan is live from our

washington newsroom approximate much more. elan >> frank, this was the president's first public address from the oval office he described what he called a "crisis of the heart and soul at the southern border," and he vowed to end the cycle of suffering by building the wall >> how much more american blood must we shed before congress does its job this is a choice between right and wrong. this is our sacred duty to the americans we serve >> trump also made an economic argument for more border security, arguing that illegal immigration strains public resources and drives down wages. he also once again claimed that mechanics could would indirectly pay for the wall through the new u.s. mca, though that deal has yet to be ratified democratic leadership delivered an empassioned response to the president. they say he manufactured the crisis and accused him of holding the public hostage for

the wall >> mr. president, reopen the government, and we can work to resolve our differences over border security, but end this shutdown now thank you. >> now, this does not sound like two sides that are ready to compromise what happens next? trump will meet with congressional leadership today at the white house the president and vice president will also go to capitol hill to have lunch with senate republicans. frank, instead of meeting in the middle, right now both sides appear to be shoring up their base and so this shutdown rolls on back over to you >> there doesn't seem to be a middle in this situation how much support is the president getting from leadership and also the rest of his base >> leadership right now is right behind president trump they had his back. within the rank-and-file members of republicans, particularly moderates in the senate, you are starting to see some cracks. there are now five senate republicans who have at least indicated that they would support opening part of the government while the negotiation

over border security and the wall goes on democrats are finding they have a winning strategy perhaps in putting pressure on republicans to get parts of the government open, get these federal workers back on the job while they have this broader discussion, but right now mitch mcconnell, senate majority leader, saying he would not bring any of those bills up for a vote because he knows the president will veto them >> all right, elan, thank you very much. certainly a lot of pressure down there in d.c. over the shutdown. thank you very much for the very latest now let's bring in james, economic policy analyst at the american enterprise institute and a cnbc contributor james, so much to break down here what do you think? how does this impact the economy? i think there was a lot of expectations from the president's speech last night. >> i think the economic angle is interesting. coming into this you suggest the report on the debt ceiling i think the concern here really is something like that not sort of the sflo it may not

something very smoothly, which is why you might see a debt warning as an early warning signal that we could be there again like we were in 201 1 where we have a problem raising that debt ceiling. >> well, jimmy, we're getting that warning from fitch, but we're seeing things higher today. what do you make of that it doesn't seem like the markets are impacted, at least in recent days, by the shutdown. >> it tends to be more of a political issue than a market issue or an economy issue. i think that the extent it shows that washington can't solve problems, and maybe it's a political issue, and that's why the president was on tv last night, and the president views this as sort of a threat to his

presidency, which is why i don't think he is going to go in and i don't think there's going to be an easy deal between the two sides. >> do you think it's in president trump's best interest, especially because he views the stock market as a benchmark for his presidency, to make a deal sooner than later? >> i think -- i think the deal that he ultimately would like to make -- i think if you -- if he loses or is perceived to lose on the government shutdown, then i think it really behooves him from his perspective to get that deal done on china market wants that deal it's a big political win for him. i think the market is certainly going to focus on how this ends up playing off on china, and in a way, the worst sort of this shutdown deal goes for the president, the more likely that i think he is going to need to get a big win and make something happen on china. >> we heard a lot of talk about a national emergency being declared what kind of impact do you think that could have or would have if the president does resort to that tactic? >> yeah, listen.

i think it's -- longer term, it's a sign that the u.s. is a somewhat less stable place to invest money you have these norms breaking down it kind of smacks of banana republic-ism this sort of national emergency. then it creates a bit of a crisis the way i think ultimately the shutdown deal ends, i think not some deal for, like, immigration, for wall money, but i think it ends in an override or a presidential veto or the president getting slapped down on the supreme court, which means we have, you know, more weeks of this shutdown and more uncertainty in the idea that we don't have a fully functioning government that can solve even what should be fairly easy problems to solve. >> so you see the potential for even more weeks of the shutdown. not more days, but more weeks, so what does this turn from a political problem to an economic problem that hits the markets, wall street, and even main streak >> well, listen, certainly if we're still talking about this in march when the debt ceiling issue, it's not like we have to

have the debt ceiling issue solved by march, but essential then you begin -- then the two issues begin to merge, and certainly when i talk to people on wall street that we don't want to see a merging of those two issues, and, i mean, there is some economic impact. you have workers with mortgages. you have the tsa, the tsapeopl are not going to work forever with no pay even if the pay gets made up on the other side. then you have a transportation issue. you have, you know, airlines not working the way they should. this does matter, and there is an economic impact that will sort of grow incrementally in time >> yeah. you know, i think the estimates are that the number of government workers who aren't being paid is twice the work force of target. >> if target collapsed tomorrow, we would be talking about the economic impact. a lot. >> let's go back to the breaking news in your mind what's bigger, the shutdown or the debt ceiling, today? >> oh, well, i think today since this whole thing is really a threat to the president's

ability to get things done, that's the bigger issue, but really, obviously, it's a debt ceiling. if the president wanted to reassure markets as part of this whole process, we would get rid of the debt ceiling. that would be a huge market confidence builder that we -- that we're going to be like other countries, we're not going to have these periodic crisis whether we're going to pay our debts, whether they're going to default on our debt. that would be, i think, a massive confidence builder almost as big as the president vowing to get off twitter. >> i don't know if that's going to happen, jimmy thanks a lot, james, of the american enterprise institute. thanks for your comments >> you bet let's get more of the news fitch warning of a possible ratings downgrade over u.s. debt joining me now is miller -- with us from boston let's get to it. what do you make of this news from fitch >> you know, obviously, when you have a series of things all coming together, it will be down the road in march as your

previous guest just talked about, and one of the things that is getting more and more attention lately is our deficit, how much debt we have, and it all goes to confidence in the marketplace. we've been losing confidence on several different levels not just politically, but economically in the last couple of months, with the decline in the market, so it just adds to that you know, i agree that it's on a near term basis it's not the biggest thing in the world because look at the market continuing to rally on it, but when it comes to a head over time, it's not good. confidence is an important factor in the marketplace. there's no question. >> absolutely right. we had a pretty nice up side follow-through from friday's big rally. what did you make of that with the shutdown going into its 19th day? >> well, it just really shows how people have kind of become numb to the whole shutdown thing. we've had it several times over the last couple of decades early on people -- oh, my gosh, going to hurt the market then as each successive shutdown has taken place, we realize that the market doesn't have a major

impact long-term it's usually made up on the other end in terms of any kind of economic loss people are ignoring that and focussing much more on the trade talks that are going on. then, of course, that will shift to the earnings season once that gets going in a little over a week >> we've been looking at the futures all morning, but a lot of people are talking about the russell 20 on 0 as well. what do you make of that seeing a big bounce there >> well, that's definitely a positive thing we definitely need to see it continue, but the one thing we've seen first in the down turn, but we've seen it over history is that the russell 2000 has been a great leading indicator for the rest of the market it definitely started rolling over back in -- at the very beginning of september before the rest of the market, which began to roll over in october. now it's starting to outperform. that's positive. again, it's just a couple of weeks, but if it can continue, that would certainly be a signal that maybe the worst is behind us >> matt, the market is making kind of a 28-3 comeback in recent days. bang, doing pretty good too.

what do you make of that >> well, the one thing we have -- that's one thing that concerns me a little bit the fang stocks are bouncing more than the rest of the market, but, of course, they sold off a lot more than the rest of the market the concern is if you look at the xlk etf -- i'm sorry, the technology etf or the semiconductor stocks, the stock semiconductor index, they've been slightly underperforming the s&p. it's only been a slight underperformance remember when the market bounced back after the correction we had at the beginning of the year when it bounced back in february, it led the market higher this time it's lagging i'm very concerned without a leadership from the tech group, it's going to be a lot harder for the market to bounce back to the same degree it did this time last year. >> last question, i know you are a big patriots fan do they make it back to the super bowl >> well, i know, you know, you are taking brian's place today the one thing he didn't want to hear for his chargers was that it might snow on sunday. that's going to be a big problem for the chargers i don't know if that's going to happen or not. it's kind of 50-50 right now, but, of course, i like the patriots going all the way this

year once again. the sentiment for the patriots is way down. i think that's positive. >> hard to beat tom brady at home thank you for waking up with us. >> thank you we are just getting started here on worldwide exchange up next, a developing story on apple. the company reportedly planning to cut iphone production in a big way. we're going to hear from apple ceo tim cook that's straight ahead. plus, more on sears. the iconic american retailer was just thrown a major lifeline, but is it enough to save some 50,000 jobs? the full details when worldwide exchgeetnsan rur is an amazing . but as you get older, it naturally begins to change, causing a lack of sharpness, or even trouble with recall. thankfully, the breakthrough in prevagen helps your brain and actually improves memory. the secret is an ingredient originally discovered... in jellyfish. in clinical trials, prevagen has been shown to improve short-term memory. prevagen. healthier brain. better life.

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good morning it is 5:15 not a lot of traffic there in times square frank, i want to say thank you very much. appreciate that. >> any time. you are our starting quarterback. i'm just here to back you up >> somebody's day is real tough on the turnpike, and whoever it is, somehow they i hope they did okay >> i hope so too >> thank you very much we are following a big developing story on apple. the technology giant reportedly planning major iphone production cuts this time for the japanese newspaper, the nikkei asian review says that apple plans to slash iphone production by about 10% over the next three months according to the nikkei, this would be the second time in two months apple has trimmed planned production for its smartphones apple stock not reacting to that news up 1%. by the way, apple not not commenting yet directly on those reports. that story crossing after cnbc

sat down for a wide-ranging interview with apple ceo tim cook let's get now to cnbc's elizabeth schulte with more on cook's comments. elizabeth. >> good morning, brian yep, apple ceo tim cook trying to alleviate wall street's worries about those weakening iphone sales in an interview with jim cramer on "mad money" yesterday, cook saying apple's ecosystem is underappreciated by investors, citing that $100 billion in revenues not tied to iphone sales last year. here's what cook said about weakness and apple's share price after it cut revenue guidance last week. >> i'm never surprised by the market, to be honest with you, because i think the market is quite emotional in the short-term, and we sort of look through all of that. we think about the long-term when i look at the long-term health of the company, it has never been better. the product pipeline has never been better.

the ecosystem has never been stronger the services are on a tear >> cook adding apple's great contribution to mankind will be its efforts in health. now, cramer also questioning cook on the company's ongoing pat ebt disputes with chip maker qualcomm in light of those recent court rulings against apple and china in germany take a listen. >> the issue that we have at qualcomm is that they have a policy of no license, no chips this is in our review illegal, and so many regulate everiors in many different countries agree with this, and then, secondly, they have an obligation to offer their patent portfolio on a fair, reasonable, and nondiscriminate other basis, and they don't do that they charge exorbitant prices, and they have a lot of different tactics they use to do that. >> now, cook telling cramer

there have not been any discussions between apple and qualcomm to settle the licensing disputes since the third calendar quarter of last year, but qualcomm responding with a statement last night calling those comments "misleading." qualcomm spokesperson saying we have been consistent for the last 18 months in making clear that we have at various times been in discussions with apple about a possible resolution to our licensing dispute. we have also stated clearly on several occasions that we believe it will be resolved one way or another in the near future either through a settlement or court decisions. the trial date for that dispute is between apple and qualcomm has been set for april 15th. brian, back to you >> all right, elizabeth schulte, thank you very much. we appreciate it now, while apple has not commented directly on that story from japan about a production cut, this may be a clue. sky works solutions, one of the company's biggest suppliers, is cutting its guidance for the quarter. now, sky works did not

specifically cite appleby namg, but apple is sky works's biggest customer shares, though, not responding maybe the market expected worse. sky works actually up 5% right now. now, yesterday in our rbi at the end of the show, remember, we showed you the share performance of many of apple's suppliers in china with the average stock out of eight big suppliers down 52% in just 12 months. let's step out of the world of business for a moment and get a check on this morning's other top headlines, including scary video out of illinois. phillip menez with that. first, president trump will meet with top congressional leaders for a third time this afternoon as the shutdown showdown kploez closes in on the three-week mark. the latest round of negotiations comes a day after the president's national address making his case for border wall funding. shortly after top democratic leaders gave their rebuttal, but neither side offered any hints that the impasse is going to come to an end any time soon

now that harrowing new footage from police in suburban illinois it showed the moment an officer's patrol stop spiralled out of control officer tedesco. she was checking a driver's id the officer fights to get the gun away from the suspect. he points it at her head moments later her backup arrives and fires a shot that would ultimately kill that man police say he was a suspect in the death of an elderly man in pennsylvania a dramatic rescue on a mountain side in the french alps also caught on camera. a police helicopter traveled up 7,000 feet and then stopped inches from the ground to save an injured skier the crew wenched up that skier and wisked him to safety what a maneuver. incredible >> it's really hard to tell from this video the helicopter rotor blades are about a foots away from the side of that mountain given the steepness. that pilot is incredibly

talented especially think about the wind gusts and everything coming off the mountain insane unbelievable >> better at his job than most of us are at ours. it is incredible >> far better. far better phillip, thank you very much appreciate that. up next, the deep water is back bp making a big money discovery in the gulf of mexico. full details ahead later on, the january indicator, what has happened this year in stocks that may be very good news for you and your money. we have good news coming up. stick around ♪ (vo) here's a question. was it necessary to create a luxury car more teched out than silicon valley? with a cockpit fit for aspaceship. hang on. radar that senses things the human eye can't. busted. and the ability to make a thousand decisions before you even make one. was all this, really necessary? what do you think? ♪

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quickbooks. backing you. 5:24 on the east coast the lights literally are still on in the capitol. all right. switching gears now to retail. sears was just thrown another major lifeline a bankruptcy court giving sears chairman eddie lampart one final chance to try to save the company. his hedge fund, esl investments, has until 4:00 today to pay out $120 million deposit that would allow for a deal to keep the 425 sears and k-mart stores open and in play. sears, a 4:00 deadline for that $120 million deposit all right. now to your three top individual stocks today outside of sears. also in retail, jc penney says same-store sales during the holiday fell 3.5%.

retailer also expects to generate policy free cash flow in 2018 to try to end the fiscal year with more than $2 billion worth of liquidity that really, really beaten up stock is up just about 1.5% right now. the ceo of herbal life is out. richard guttis stepping down after the company says it has discovered comments he made before taking the helm in 2017 that they consider contrary to herbal life's business practices. herbalife naming michael johnson, his former ceo, as its interim ceo. metlife saying the ceo steven kandarian will retire, and it will create a new position of noneconomictive chairman goldman sachs out with two big upgrades they're just crossing. we're going to bring you those names and those upgrades in just a minute while we talk a lot about oil on this show, and this network, because as you are seeing lately, as goes oil, so

goes the stock market. oil in the middle of its own mini-rally in fact, coming into today, oil has posted its first seven session win streak since mid 2017 could be eight today crude oil up 1% today to back over $50 per barrel. a 2% gain for wti. speaking of oil, bp discovering one billion barrels of crude oil at an existing oil field in the gulf of mexico the oil giant also announcing two new off shore discoveries and a major new investment in a nearby field bp shares with up about three-fourth of 1% still ahead, the shutdown showdown rolls on. president trump blasting ghmocrats in a speesh last his comments and impact on your money straight ahead

skblienchts zhount showdown. day 19 the president blasting democrats over border security in a big speech overnight his comments and wall street reaction straight ahead. trade also center stage. talks between the u.s. and china wrapping up in beijing we'll take you there live. and the january indicator. why this month's performance, even as early as it is, could mean good things for you and your money this year for some good news on this wednesday, january 19th, as worldwide exchange rolls on. ♪ the greatest, the greatest,

the greatest ♪ >> welcome back and good morning. thank you for being with us here on cnbc. i'm brian sullivan let's get you up to speed on the markets, and we've had a little bit of a rally here so far in 2019 it looks like that could continue today the futures up about 35 points i know, it's not a lot, but, again, another day where we are seeing the green, and the one thing that we've had this year different than the end of last of 2018, just go away, right, is that we've seen futures gain strength as the morning has gone on so far it is the sixth trading day of the year. wait and see what happens. right now futures are higher as always, more in the markets and your money coming up we begin with the latest on government shutdown. president trump addressing the nation overnight as the shutdown now enters its 19th day. if you missed the speech last night, here's part of what he said >> the federal government remains shut down for one reason and one reason only, because

democrats will not fund border security my administration is doing everything in our power to help those impacted by the situation, but the only solution is for democrats to pass a spending bill that defends our borders and reopens the government >> joining us now to discuss and dissect this, sarah fashionan, republican strategist, partner at ddc public affairs and a cnbc contributor. the president blaming the democrats saying pass a spending bill, open the government. after that you had chuck schumer and nancy pelosi get up in front of the country in an oddly staged looking situation and say this is trump's shutdown and basically blaming it all on him. sarah, it's kind of hard to follow who is right >> well, they're both right. i mean, the reality is that neither side wants to give democrats, their base does not want a border wall, and nancy pelosi's first action as speaker

politically would be very difficult for her if she went and caved to trump's wall. trump, on the other hand, of course, this was his centerpiece of his 2016 campaign, and he doesn't feel like committee back down we're in a high stakes game of chicken right now essentially, and ultimately, these two sides are going to have to come together and figure out how both of them get a win. democrats don't like to be accused of being soft on border security trump wants his wall they have to figure out a way to come together and give trump a half victory and democrats a half victory on this, so both sides get that victory >> how do you get a half victory because the other way the game of chicken ends is everybody crashes into each other. >> right well, that's what it appears like we're headed today, although i do ultimately think we're going to resolve this. the way you would get a deal done is that democrats would fund border security, and that border security would be short of a wall.

perhaps there would be a wall or a structure, as the president has said in the past -- >> a barrier >> a barrier, a fence, a structure. some places along the wall, the reality is, you know, there are ports and there are entry points where they have actually put up physical structures and illegal immigration has decreased. there is some evidence that these structures do work in certain parts of the border. at the same time, you know, trump would have to accept a half loaf, and democrats would have to accept the fact that there would be, you know, at least in some places some barriers or structures or walls or call them what you will >> this is an idealogical argument as i tweeted out last night with a $4 trillion budget, the federal government spends $500 million an hour. asking for $5 billion or $6 billion is literally asking for one-half of one day's spending for the federal government whatever side of the debate you're on, it's not about money, is it? >> yeah, it's an excellent

point. you know, while that is a lot of money -- >> to you and i. not to the federal government. >> to the federal government it is a relatively small amount, although in the grand scheme of border security, there is significant spending there you know, the question is, you know, this becomes an idealogical issue. many trump supporters feel very strongly that this wall should be built many democrats, particularly those in the more liberal side, look at this as a humanitarian issue. it certainly is, and i think that gets lost in this conversation often, but they look at it primarily as a humanitarian issue, and a means of supporting -- >> how does this end we have to wrap the interview up how did you think this plays out? who blinks first >> i think that ultimately what with will happen is mitch mcconnell will go to the president and say i cannot hold your fellow republicans and the senate on this issue they're going to fund the government we need to come up with a deal that gives you at least a partial victory. >>fagen.

we're glad you're world war iing thank you. >> thank you another major issue in the minds of investors and geopolitics, of course, is trade. talks between the u.s. and china wrapping up in beijing eunice joining us with beiging from more and how those talks are going. eunice >> well, the u.s. delegation is now on its way back to washington, but this comes after an unexpected third day of talks. the talks were supposed to wrap up on tuesday, but were extended by a day and the foreign ministry today said that this shows that both sides are serious about the talks. now, as these negotiations were proceeding, there were signs there was another sign that beijing was showing some flexibility. the chinese have granted approvals for five gmo crops, and that really paves a way for companies such as dow dupont to be able to sell its biotech seeds here in china. now, however, as often as is the case with these discussions with china, a lot of people who are familiar with these types of

discussions have said that it's a welcome move, but, on the other hand, long overdue american companies have been waiting for these approvals for years, and that really goes to the core of these issues that is just how willing and far is china to go -- just how far is china willing to go in order to address some of the american concerns now, there have been some reports that there has been progress made on some of the less contentious issues, such as the ability of the chinese to buy more american farm as well as energy products however, some of the structural issues and some of the tougher issues have left -- have been left unaddressed such as the intellectual property rights issue, as well as technology transfers. brian, we are expecting now both sides to issue statements soon, and then, the next step and the expectation there is that there will be another round of talks

possibly as early as next week in washington at a cabinet level meeting between bob leitheiser, and the vice premier >> thank you very much now let's get analysis with linda yu from the london business school. also the author of "what would great economists do, how twelve brilliant minds would solve today's biggest problems." welcome. this is a big problem. >> yes >> we talked about the border wall and sort of the game of political chickern this is kind of similar, but it's between governments not two sides of a government. it's between the u.s. and china. how does this trade fight play out? >> well, i think what we're going to find is they'll issue a statement probably today to pave the way for another round of talks. some things they can come to agreement on pretty quickly, like what's the best way to reduce a trade deficit it's for america to sell more to china. opening up china's market a bit more, especially around services, america's biggest exporter in the world, that could reduce the trade deficit, but what they cannot resolve

very quickly, and they'll sweep under the rug are things like improving china's legal system, changing government policy on technology transfers how do you protect intellectual property with a legal system that doesn't really function as we would expect? >> it is a difficult -- it is a sort of labyrinthian system where contract law is difficult to enforce that's a little bit -- right now how important are company deals? in other words, forget about governments. do you think that u.s. and china companies can solve this problem, ie, maybe making a big order for boeing planes, getting qualcomm -- you know what i mean >> yes the trade position companies, i think, once they're given a bit of an okay, i think they could actually do quite a lot, right i think the issue on that is going to be whether or not the american side will accept chinese assurances these deals will go ahead. what the american side has asked for is we want monitoring. we don't believe just because

you say you're going to give us more access, make foreign investment easier -- >> why would china want that or allow that >> this is interesting on china's part before the trade war really heated up, they were about to open their markets more for services, because china is balancing towards becoming a services based economy they realize state dominated, especially the financial sector, insurance sector, wasn't really helping them serve a middle class population, so they were about to let in more competition. i think on that front they actually stopped because they wanted to leave it as a bargaining chip on the table, but, again, because china has made these assurances before, there's going to be some skepticism, not just on the american's part, but also europeans as to whether china can deliver, but imagine, right, two economic powers, how can they really monitor each other i say that as a risk >> you say something very important. i would be disappointed if you didn't, by the way coming from the u.k. where you live, because there is the third party. there is the e.u

>> yeah. >> they're sort of over here watching they have a big stake in how this plays out how does european influence change this discussion and debate between the u.s. and china? >> if the cards had been played differently by president trump, the europeans, i think, would have joined america in pressuring china the perennial complaint by american and european multi-national companies is 15 years after joining the world trade organization, why are foreign banks less than 2% of total banking assets in china? >> that's a good question. >> you happen to open up if you start a trade war, as in huge tariffs, then, you know, asking multi-nationals to change the supply chains, the europeans are not going to play a part in that i wouldn't be surprised if there's taset support, as in they think china should open up more and have more of a level playing field and proof their legal system and all of that, but it's hard for the europeans to voice support when you're launching these massive tariffs. they don't come to an agreement

by march 1st, it's going to be 25% tariffs and $200 billion worth of chinese imports into the united states, and say this gets racheted up even more, half a trillion dollars worth, and china retaliates we're now talking about significant percentage of world trade. europeans won't like that. >> we have to go, but i tell you, between the brexit vote and this happening, march is going to be a really interesting month. >> it certainly will be. >> let's take a month off. right? >> see you in a month. >> see you in a couple of months linda yu, real pleasure to have you on set we're going to call on you in london don't go anywhere. we told you earlier there was breaking news about two upgrades from goldman sachs. a pair of fwrup u upgrades on two big consumer names number one, goldman this morning updating colgate from a buy to neutral. they expect a big recovery in emerging markets got a $74 price target on colgate. that's about 24% upside. goldman also upgrading keurig dr. pepper from a neutral to a

buy. they see keurig as a defensive name in consumer staples with high earnings visibility and strong free cash flow. and goldman upped its target on keurig dr. pepper, kdp to 30 a share. about 15% upside colgate -- so bleach and coffee getting an upgrade this morning. not together, thankfully coming up, weighing the wild cards. d.c. dysfunction china, the fed, what else? all front and center for you we're going to break down the biggest risk to you and your money, and some good news about the -- we have good news 5:43 back after this.

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it is 4:45 a.m., but in chicago, not here. i didn't want to scare you guys. look at that the sun, i don't know, a couple of hours off what a great city chicago is my kind of town. futures are higher once again. the dow and the s&p, by the way, are on pace for their biggest winning streaks since november we're also keeping an eye on oil. oil this morning up again. back above $50 a barrel. if oil finishes higher today, it will be the eighth straight day that oil has gained -- i know we're only at 50, but the eighth straight day that oil has gained oil matters to the overall market saudis pulling back on

production maybe as much as 700,000 barrels a day, and that's got oil up. the biggest win streak since back in the mid 2017 all right. let's find out what else you're going to be talking about today. time for this morning's top trending stories mr. frank collins is back with those. >> i have a pretty interesting story. i actually lived in alaska and have my own moose story, but i'm going to start with this one a hospital in anchorage, alaska, in an unexpected visitors when its front doors were frozen open that happens more often than you think. a moose went through the lobby windows and wandered in for a snack. hospital security watched this huge animal until it had its fill and then it mozied on back out. fortunately, nobody was hurt, including the moose. >> forget about the story. i have never been to la lass i have three states left to go alaska is one of those i have never seen a moose. how big are moose? you're a big dude. i'm a pretty tall good >> we're big dudes >> how tall are they >> lived in fairbanks, alaska. the very top of alaska >> you weren't even in anchorage.

>> i was in fairbanks. tiny town. here's what happened i'm driving on an army base because it's a big army base there, and i'm driving i look to my right, and there's a huge moose statue right there. i'm thinking, wow, why did they put a moose statue right there i couldn't even see my shoulders out of my car window, and i was in an suv. their head is probably ten feet high their horns, who knows i can't even do the math >> you ever had dinner naked >> i'm going to pass on that, but a lot of people are into that, but apparently not enough people it's kind of one of those things the first ever paris restaurant exclusively for naked diners >> you see what i did there? >> i saw that. don't ever do this, though don't ever do this i don't want to see this i like you i don't want to see this >> we have to be careful with this video, man. carefully edits this video >> the dinner nap kib has to be in just the right place. the restaurant called au naturale has been open for 15 months, but hasn't been able to attract enough nude customers to stay afloat. earners -- the owners are urging daring diners to join them before they close tore good. it's kind of like a warning.

it's going to shut down unless you guys come. i've heard of jacket optional. never heard of clothing optional >> yeah. the video -- if are you on the radio, if you are in your car driving, it's basically a bunch of french guys sitting around a table -- >> too dangerous to show the women. get the napkin just right. >> yeah. not a surprise that restaurant didn't make it >> no. you know what i just found out manscaping is not big in paris >> for that video, clearing not. >> no. >> not a big thing >> naked moose, now that's a restaurant frank, thanks. >> great name. >> you know, my college roommate drove from virginia to alaska on a motorcycle >> politics, trade, and the fed how to best navigate the biggest risk to your money ahead plus, good news about this month and what it might mean for the year icarayews on a wednesd moinstk ound

5:51 on a wednesday morning.

stocks are in the middle of a little run here in 2019, and that could could continue today. dow futures up just 50 points. all right. a big focus will be on the federal reserve. at 2:00 eastern time, we are going to see the minutes from last month's fed meeting let's bring in joe, chief economist for americas and a cnbc contributor normally, joe, the fed minutes kind of like a bologne sandwich, right? >> this time, yeah >> you know what you are going to get ahead of time you know, you have it. it doesn't really satisfy you. it's nothing exciting. is it going to be different this time with the minutes? >> unfortunately, brian, it's not. i mean, the minutes can be interesting because it gives you the context in detail about what the fed is thinking. had we not heard from powell last week, then the minutes would be -- people would comb through it for every word and nuance, but in light of powell's comments, and i want to say something else powell's comments, if you noticed, there was -- as he was speaking, he was reading from a piece of paper he was very -- he wanted to be

very certain that what he said was interpreted correctly. clearly, it was edited somebody else had likely read it that basically makes the minutes stale today because the chair effectively did a 180 from where the fed was back in december for which these minutes are accountable for. >> do you think effectively the minutes today will be a longer version of the paper that powell read from? >> no. it will probably talk a little bit about the risks. it will probably sound a lot less worried about financial markets, brian, because as you know, after that fed press conference, which was a disaster, equity markets moved significantly lower. credit spreads widened the minutes are going to be stale. people will read them. i'll look at them, but they'll be sale. >> listen, i'll push back alt bit on that, joe, only because i would say this this is a new and untested federal reserve. about half the fed governs are nude to the job. powell has obviously made some slip-ups is there a chance because there's inexperience there's a

chance they could screw it up in the minutes? >> it's possible i think the market now is looking -- given, you know, powell just spoke last weekend with such a seminole event in some sense, and you have got now the meeting that is only, you know, three weeks away or thereabouts, i think the market is going to probably look to that if the meeting was a little further out, i would say maybe the minutes are more interesting, but he was so clear, auto brian, his flexibility and not worrying about inflation and being sensitive to what was happening to asset markets, i just think it was such a big deal that it just basically renders everything beforehand pretty much irrelevant. >> so then what -- this is the bologne sandwich then of economic news. what will be the next most important piece of data that you do believe, joe, is important to our viewers? >> so in the u.s., especially with the government shutdown lingering, and potentially impacting data releases, all the sentiment type indicators, so the ism we had on january 3rd, that series is important consumer and business confidence will want to follow those

numbers. also, brian, we want to follow data out of europe and asia, specifically china markets have been doing that what's happened and why the market has reacted so violately to powell isn't just the concern that the u.s. is slowing, but that the u.s. is slowing against a much weaker global back drop then the last point, as i would watch credit markets investment grade, high yield the senior loan market those are instruments and markets that weaken pretty dramatically late last year in addition to the equity market, and that was something the fed was also watching. >> do you think that the next piece of economic data will be kind of ignored because the government shutdown? >> possibly. i mean, i think the problem is going to happen. you know, a lot of the weakness late in the month hasn't shown up in some of the data we're still yet to get, meaning the sentiment numbers for january reflect late december, and it's possible markets will get worried again about the extent of this year's projected slowdown and growth in earnings. i think some of the data will be important, but right now we're going to get to january 30th

it's going to be a big day, and powell gets a chance to flip-flop again. i hope not because he has a press conference again at all these meetings this year >> joe, thank you very much. >> thanks, brian my pleasure. >> take care time for your morning rbi and this random item should make you feel good as an investor we are now five trading days into 2019. today will be day six, and the markets are good the dow is up 2% nasdaq up 4% remember this. citigroup reminded clients last night first five trading days of the year were often perceived as indicative of the way january goes and as january goes, so goes the s&p 500 80% of the time that goes back to 1929 as january goes, so goes the year, and as the first five days of january goes, so goes january. all that means is if you believe it, could be a very good year for stocks we would like to wrap up with this a very warm welcome to the newest member of the wex, worldwide exchange family. our ep executive producer ann tironi giving birth to a

beautiful baby girl, caitlyn mary tironi. baby and mama are doing very well riedsisters ann and meredith are thll to meet their little sister best wishes to all of them ann, we're thinking about you. that was once our frontier. but today, a new frontier has risen. and this is the vehicle crafted to conquer it. introducing the first-of-its-kind lexus ux and ux f sport, also available in hybrid all-wheel drive. experience amazing at your lexus dealer.

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skbrienchts good morning shutdown showdown. president trump blasting democrats over border security in last night's primetime address. analysis and market reaction, if there is any of course, a government shutdown that's straight ahead. new this morning, fitch warning of a possible downgrad to the u.s. credit rating, but it isn't blaming the government shutdown we'll tell you what it is blaming. details are straight ahead and a new report from apple -- or from japan it says apple is planning iphone production cuts. we'll show you how the stock is reacting also after jim's interview. tim cook yesterday

it's wednesday, january 9th, 2019 "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ i got a moose over my head >> live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box. good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernan and andrew ross sorkin. our guest host for this hour is joe terra nova from vertos investment partners. he is a cnbc contributor as well we've been looking at the u.s. equity futures, and after three days of a row of gains, check out the futures. they are in the green once again. dow futures indicated up by 67 points after a gain of 256 points yesterday s&p futures indicated up by just over six points, and the nasdaq is indicated to open up by about 21 points here take a look at what happened overnight in asia. you're going t