will the d.c. drama derail the mini rally we are in that is the trillion dollar question it tops your five at 5 president trump storming out of a meeting with democrats calling it a waste in a time nine in a row. can oil's win streak keep going and what would it mean for stocks if it does. fresh talks out of china we will take you live to beijing. sears stays alive for now. the last-ditch effort to save the iconic american retailer speaking of retail, the one retailer you will hear about today. here's the question. can bath towels ease investor concern about a slowdown

wake up, dry off, it's thursday, january 10th, and "worldwide exchange" begins right now ♪ ♪ good morning, good evening, good afternoon i am brian sullivan. thanks for joining us on this thursday morning the market's little win streak we've been in has been nice to start the year today it might just be in jeopardy futures as you can see are down. dow futures off 150 points it is early, but there's a lot of red on the screen a number of big factors that are in play in the markets and your money today, number one, has got to be the d.c. drama president trump rattling the markets after storming out of a meeting over shutdown negotiations you've also got fresh comments coming out of china following those high level trade talks with the united states and third on your money market radar, the

fed still remaining front and center for the markets as always and as you would expect, we've got full team coverage of all of these big stories and big risks. let's kick it off with tracie potts who's live in d.c. with more of the government shutdown as it enters its 20th day. tracie. >> reporter: hi there, brian tomorrow is day 21 we will tie, we will be on par with the longest shutdown that this country has ever seen if democrats and the president can't work things out in the next 48 hours, it will create a record but it's not that that they're focusing on here federal workers planning to demonstrate in washington after talks fell apart at the white house. a couple of different stories about how that happened, but the bottom line everyone agrees on, the president ended up walking out. the meeting he said would take 45 minutes only took 20. here's how chuck schumer, democratic leader described it.

>> the president just got up and walked out he asked speaker pelosi, will you agree to my wall she said, no and he just got up and said, then we have nothing to discuss and he just walked out again, we saw a temper tantrum because he couldn't get his way. >> reporter: the white house said the president was pretty pleasant so the differences in the tone of the meeting. the president tweeted that it was a total waste of his time. afterwards vice president pence described what he saw in the room >> he asked speaker pelosi that if he opened things up quickly, if he reopened the government quickly, would she be willing to agree to funding for a wall or a barrier on the southern border and when she said no, the president said good-bye. >> reporter: no wall money, no end to the shutdown seems to be the bottom line here the president's headed down to texas to the u.s./mexico border today to bring some attention to what he believes are the issues

down there forcing this shutdown meantime, democrats are trying to reopen parts of the government piece by piece, but republicans won't even look at that plan and the white house has already said it's a veto brian? >> tracie potts, thank you very much. we're getting fresh reaction from china following the high level talks from the united states in beijing. as always, eunice eun is live in beijing and what may not have happened overnight in china. >> reporter: thanks so much, brian. the commerce ministry was cautiously optimistic. they issued a statement saying the two sides conducted in depth and detailed exchanges and laid the foundation for resolving mutual concerns. at a regular press briefing in the afternoon the ministry spokesperson said the one day extension was a sign that the talks were serious now there's been a lot of focus here in this discussion of the trade agreement as to how to get beijing to make good on its

promises one of the big complaints among the business community here has been that beijing doesn't necessarily always stick to the spirit of an agreement and the ustr pointed that out in their statement saying any agreement to provide for complete implementation subject to enforcement. today we saw a little bit of push back on that from the chinese commerce ministry where they said china thinks a mechanism is important, too, and both parties have an obligation to keep their promises so i think that really highlights that there is quite a bit of mistrust still between the two parties. there was also very little detail from both sides and the chinese though are in a similar position as their u.s. counterparts, and that is these are still mid-level discussions. a lot of the big decisions are going to come from the top decision makers. there is an expectation because there's been a lot of discussion about how these talks were constructed that there will be

another round of face-to-face meetings however, neither side has said when or where those discussions are going to be but, brian, one calendar point to put on to your -- one point to put on your calendar is that president trump was supposed to go to davos, switzerland, for the world economic forum before the government shutdown put that into question, but the vice president of china is going to be there that could be another opportunity for further discussion if president trump does show up. >> live in jay bing. let us turn to the third factor. the latest fed meeting minutes showing the fed is willing to wait on future rate hikes. your next guest says that may not be the panacea you think it is he is peter book bar he is a cnbc contributor we're supposed to love it when the fed says they're going to stay on hold you say be careful what you wish

for. how come >> if the fed funds rate was at 3 and the balance sheet was much smaller, i would say, okay, mission accomplished but here we are with the fed funds 2 1/4, 2 1/2 and the fed is running into issues the balance sheet has shrink 10% after quinn it tupling. this shows that it has broader issues with the tightening monetary policy. >> if you were jerome powell, what would you do? because you've just told the market that you are willing to wait you went from hawkish, semi-hawkish to pretty dovish. >> so he's left with a very difficult situation because yellen took so long to raise interest rates yellin raised interest rates three times in 2016 as she eventually promised, then you would be at around 3% and his decision making today would be a lot easier

i think that i respect the flexibility issue. there's no question that the u.s. economy has been impacted somewhat by the tightening markets certainly. but what you're in a credit dependent economy, you're going to get impacted by tightening of monetary policy. >> hold up now, my friend. let's dig into that a little bit. there is a big difference between the economy and the stock market i'm going to look right at the camera the stock market is not the economy. they are different things. the stock market -- you think what's happened in december is reflective of a macro worry or simply a stock market phenomena outside of the overall economy which, by the way, i know some of the data points, peter, have been a little bit weaker, but there's no question the u.s. economy is pretty good. >> i would say it's a combination of a markdown of people's expectations of what global growth is like. at the same time people saying, you know what, do i still want

to pay 17, 18 times earnings when rates were at zero and the fed's balance sheet was inflating or do i only want to pay 14 or 15 times earnings because the fed is tightening policy and rates are going up and the balance sheet is shrinking? >> see, you said something very important and i would expect nothing less of you. you used the g word. global we have to remember that 40% of earnings. >> of revenue. >> revenue, sales which matter probably more than earnings. about 40% of sales numbers come from around the world in the s&p 500? we have to remember that there's europe, there's china. it's a big world you think the world maybe less than the u.s. is the problem >> i mean, it's clear -- >> we know china is an issue. >> china is clearly slowing down germany has reported poor industrial numbers this week it means we're going to get a fourth quarter contraction after a third quarter contraction. factually overseas growth is slowing.

so i'm worried that when we get earnings beginning next week with the 5 or 6 weeks to follow, that we're going to hear more fedex like stories rather than what nike said. >> or apple. >> and certainly apple and that over seas weakness is affecting -- >> fedex and apple, you're not using those in a good way. you're using them in negative surprises? >> right. >> nike was a positive. >> was a positive. >> you think we're going to get more negative surprises than positive surprises when all the earnings numbers roll out. >> i think for the big multi-nationals that have a great amount of business over seas because they're not going to be immune. >> you think the earnings season could be disappointing >> it's going to be bumpbumpy. >> estimates can be messed with. >> exactly. >> and they're just estimates. estimates guided by the companies. >> right so we'll see how revenues do that will be more relevant. >> your new nickname is top line

bookbar. >> thank you very much great stuff as always. folks, if you are a seller of stocks, you're one ever those people selling in december, we wanted to know why we have a poll up on twitter what is the one main reason that you would sell stocks right now, trade, dc, economic slowdown, fed rates? go to cnbc on twitter and we'll bring you the information. the sears saga rolls on and the company stays alive. eddie lambert's efforts continue >> brian, sears chairman eddie lampert has submitted a newly revised $5 billion bid which may be the only hope to keep the iconic retailer alive. this comes after they rejected his initial 4$4.4 billion bidia

insufficient as part of this new bid lampert will cover the tax and vendor bills f. sears accepts this offer as financially viable, lampert and his hedge funds, esl investors, can take part in a bankruptcy auction this is the only one that would keep the company alive any offer would need to be approved by a bankruptcy court on january 31st. it's been tough times for sears. suffered sevenstraight years without turning any profit and 46 straight quarters of declining same store sales back over to you. >> frank holland, thank you very much. on deck, why one of america's hottest startups is changing its name and maybe its game plan. later on, oil kicking off the year with a monster rally. smart investors have banked some coin in a very short amount of time if you missed the move on oil.

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stocks can't go up every single day listen, you never know the markets could turn around still very, very early let's check the asian markets. kind of a nice little rally in japan, begin the year there. we saw japan pull back like our markets here a mixed trade and the european market, let's check that new graphics a lot of red european markets are down about half a percent the company is called we work at least for now we'll get to that. it is a shared space real estate company and we work ceo spoke exclusively to us at cnbc last night out west about how soft bank is trimming another planned investment in the company. listen to this >> the interesting thing about the investment, there's a lot of rumors and what happened the most important thing when masa called me and said this is happening, that happened, the first thing is i'm calling you

to share this as a partner and i wanted to come up with a solution as two partners we talked about it and came up with a fact that a $6 million investment. post with 47 and a billion dollars of secondary tool investors and employees is an amazing way to set a benchmark and just get going what this will do is allow us to fulfill the mission. >> the financial times reporting that reduced softbank investment may be speeding up plans for a we work ipo or what the company is going to be called. joining us is the deals editor for the f.t. who is newly bearded and broken some news didn't you love adam newman when he was with foreigner? that was a great band. never mind you have to see the video to understand what i'm saying rausch, a lot of big words being used out west. they're changing the company's name what can you tell us about the

likely future of i guess what would be called the we company >> yeah. and it's been fascinating to watch we work and the we company spin the story as aggressively as possible to highlight the 47 million post money valuation in reality what has happened is softbank has offered to buy out existing investors at a valuation of $20 billion and offered to inject another billion at a valuation of 42 billion. if you include that, that's how you get the 47 billion what you're seeing is adam newman spin the biggest number as possible to make his company seem as exciting as possible a potential $16 billion commitment, 10 of which would be to buy out the investors and position them as a new corner stone investor and they'll need lots of time to develop, really get reduced to a $2 billion investment of working capital, 1 of which is intended to buy out other investors. so it's a huge, huge shift for what this company was expecting

and being negotiated for several months behind closed doors that's happened for several reasons. tech selloff, the vision fund to back this further and so what you've had is a huge capital commitment get cut enormously and that's a huge blow to the company. it's really shifted plans for we work and therefore you're starting to see language about the we company three subsidiaries under a new top co which gives them more option optionality. they are burning through it at a very aggressive rate. >> we work is a cool thing they get together, they pay a monthly fee. free beer fridays. it's really hip. we work, which by the way we've broken news on last year, is a real estate company. it's a reat. they buy buildings putting people in them doing whatever they want, but at the heart of it it's a real estate company. it has bonds and those bonds are

saying investors are not that optimistic. >> absolutely. it's not dissimilar to the tesla story, all of these very hyped companies that we see in the current market if the company is focused on making money, which is what most companies do, and growing their sales, which is what really good companies do and make money, then investors love it what you have at we work is a top line sales growth that is moving and huge losses that are expanding in the first three quarters of 2018, they lost $1.2 billion. now a good thing for them is they are capitalized so they can weather this storm like you said, it's a real estate play, not a tech play once that reality sets in, that's a different state of play in the u.k. there's a company called iwg. >> uh-huh. >> it has a market value of 2 billion sterling that is a fraction of what we work is valued right now it is roughly the same business

model minus the hype. >> i knew you were going to mention that up on the ft right now our viewers, they hear the regis commercials. start an office, have a shared phone number regis is plain we work has tried to sex it up, hip stuff, free beer fridays, at the end of the day this is not a new business model, is it? >> it's been around for a while. >> exactly as you remember, a couple of the big companies that have ipo'd in the tech space have started to position themselves as something else they became snap chat and they had two units, snap and chat the virtual reality goggle that you snap while you wear it they tried to pivot into a new product line they said to investors, we're more than a messaging app. you're seeing the same thing at

we work, it's now the we company. they're trying to show to investors and the market with this messaging and campaign that they are more than just a real estate company but ultimately their success and failure relies on filling up the office spaces and they're taking out leases long and renting short. >> with that beard arash, you could be at we work. put on a plaid shirt, skinny jeans, you're right there, brother. i can see it you look good. thank you very much. >> thanks. be sure to catch more of our exclusive story with adam newmann and ashton cutcher he's probably a billionaire. that is coming out exclusively on cnbc today. coming up, if you own one beaten up retail stock today and bought it recently, you're

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visit. jay? >> reporter: yeah, brian the president on his way to south texas as you talk about a bit later today. negotiations seemingly in disarray he appears to be moving closer to the controversial option of declaring a national emergency to get funds for the wall and end the standoff the president's schedule here not entirely clear we do know he does plan to get a briefing along the border and does plan to sit down privately and hold a roundtable discussion with some of the border patrol agents in this area. understand, if he uses that option of a national emergency, the funds for that wall, they would come from money allocated for the military of course, that would be highly controversial, divisive even within his own party and, brian, would likely face some sort of challenge be in the courts >> jay gray in hildago, texas.

we know it's very early. thank you very much. appreciate that. up next, investing in big technology why one market pro thinks the beaten down, yes, faang stocks could be a good bet for you and your money he'll make that lar.te since rain man took home the best picture stay tuned

today marks a tie with the longest government shutdown. day 20 futures are in the red president trump storming out of a meeting yesterday. we're talking trade. fresh comments out of china following the u.s. trade talks and oil. will oil snap its longest winning streak since july? could today be day nine? it is thursday, january 10th and you're watching "worldwide exchange." good morning welcome back thank you for being with us here on cnbc. i'm just dancing i'm brian sullivan let's as always kick off the second half of the program with your executive recap all the news, i mean all of it that you need -- frank holland, give us all the news. >> all of it. >> the whole thing. >> here's what's leading cnbc.com right now we're getting fresh headlines out of china following the trade talks. they were saying the talks were extensive and they laid the

groundwork for future negotiations the u.s. and china are expected to meet again in two weeks in davos, switzerland sears news, chairman eddie lampert making a last-minute dished effort to save the company. he's trying to save them from going out of business. a bankruptcy judge will make the final decision on sears later this month. and in news overseas, brexit negotiations underway in the u.k. parliament. prime minister theresa may is pushing to save her plans to exit the european union. this comes ahead of a key brexit vote in the u.k. parliament that is set for next week brian, back over to you. >> frank holland he apparently didn't have all the news we have other news outside the world of money including no doubt the worst roommate phillip mena has more on these stories. the last story is unbelievable. >> i know. i can't wait to get to that. we will in a moment. brian, good morning. 20 days into the shutdown

showdown and president trump is heading to the epicenter of the impasse. the president is planning to tour the u.s./mexico border near mccallan, texas. he's declaring a national emergency to pay for the border wall if they don't reach an agreement. he reportedly walked out on negotiations a compromise seems further out of reach. the rear facing camera of a florida highway patrol trooper capturing a shocking event pulling over to help a driver. minutes later a car slamming into the trooper the trooper gets out and goes around, runs over to the car and yanks that damaged door loose as the trapped driver tries to get out. the trooper has to reach in and pull the man out of the car. he was able to drag him away from that fire the driver, he was seriously injured but he will survive. and here we go this is what you were talking about, brian california contender for the worst roommate of all time

35-year-old adul say song yang he learned that his roommate won $10 million from a scratchoff. he bought a lotto ticket and swapped it out while his roommate slept an investigation was launched when the rightful winner's ticket was rejected and he was arrested, brian. wow. can you believe that >> i can because the first thing you learn in criminal law class is basically that most criminals aren't the brightest people in the world and this guy clearly didn't realize, hey, my winning scratchoff has been replaced by a non-winning scratchoff i live with a guy who suddenly is driving a lamborghini who could have taken that ticket phillip, thank you. >> phillip mena. here's how your money investments look like. 5:33 stock futures indicating that we could have a halt to this little mini rally we've been in it's been a good run so far in 2019, especially for oil we'll get to that in a second.

dow futures down 140 points right now. the bond market. wow, bond yields are starting to tick back up they are still very low compared to what we had just about two months ago ten-year yield 2.7%. overnight in asia, a mixed bag of trading japan market and some in china were down. let's check oil. that has been maybe the market story. i know i'm biased. i do a lot of stuff in oil i like talking about it. here's the thing as jim cramer has said often, as goes oil, so goes the stock market the price of oil down a little bit today. we've been up eight days in a row. today would be 9 one of the longest winning streaks in about two years we'll see if oil can turn that around we're down .4% bitcoin continues to be walloped down 5.5%. 3782. last night, yesterday, i put out a poll on twitter asking all of you what you think the main reason would beto sell stocks. if you are a seller, you don't have to be, what is the main

reason to sell stocks right now? trade fight, d.c. shutdown, economic slowdown, or the fed rates/balance sheet. 48% of you said it was the economic slowdown. 22% said trade 26 blamed it on the fed. only 4% of all you just handsome, intelligent people out there said the d.c. shutdown was a reason to be a seller of stocks let's bring in mark tepper he is ceo of strategic wealth partners i know you're not a seller of stocks, you are probably a buyer. that is your job. >> right. >> if you had to be, if you put on your seller hat because you have to sell some stocks to buy others, would you agree with that is the economic concern the main reason to be a little concerned? >> no, i'm not overly concerned about that at all. i mean, i think without a doubt the economy is decelerating but we're not experiencing a contraction. and because we're experiencing this deceleration, that really should be good for the market because i think what we've heard

from the fed over thecourse of the last week is they are willing to be patient. so we've gone from in october where powell said we were a long way from neutral to suddenly now they are patiently pausing and waiting to see what happens. so i actually think that's going to be a positive thing for the stock market. >> okay. yeah, because i had a number of people saying, why have you got to be so negative and talk about the selling. today we put out the why to buy. don't worry about it if you had to say one reason to buy equities right now, our poll will be going up later on today, what would you answer to an as yet to be created hole >> i think we're going to see some trade resolutions sooner than later i think that is going to accelerate the stock prices. right around the christmas eve selloff trump and his administration reached out to some hedge fund managers to get advice on how to stop the bleeding in the stock market and they were essentially told to stop the turnover in the white house, stop tweeting negatively

towards the fed and get a trade deal done with china now i thought the trade deal might take six months or so but i do think that's going to happen sooner than later and as soon as we start to see some resolution on that, stock prices will resume their upward movement. >> we've had a nice rally to begin the year do you think there's moraly to come in 2019 in other words, low stocks, particularly small caps, end this year higher than where they are right now, mark? i'm talking about the average. >> they certainly will i mean, so the s&p, i would expect us to close out the year right at around 2850 so there's a lot of up side from here i do think you're going to see some multiple expansion as we do get the fed and the trade issues behind us, and i think there's an opportunity in some of the most beaten up big tech names that are out there i mean, these big tech names really led the bull market over the course of the last ten years. >> like who? need names >> let's take netflix as an

example. it's up 20% year to date but it's still down 24% from its high it's still in bear territory so it's got lots of up side potential. the bears are always talking about valuation, right the pe is just way too high but all of these bears use the same exact methodology for valuation. the issue is different valuation principles apply to different companies. with netflix you have recession proofrecession, no one is going to cancel their subscription they have recurring revenues they have an addictive product people want to binge watch their unbelievable content and they have pricing power they could double prices overnight and no one is going to cancel their membership. there's a lot of potential. >> 47 million subscribers apparently out of 137 million watched "bird box" in a week on netflix. >> yeah. yes. i mean, it's a -- you have that.

so you've got that and then all -- you have all of their original series as well. i mean, netflix is just absolutely killing it. and if you think about it, in the middle of a recession, yes, consumers are going to cut expenses, but they're not going to cut their $10 a month membership in fact, they're probably going to spend more time on the couch watching tv because it's more affordable. >> maybe watching bloodline reruns or ozark. bullish on the markets, likes netflix. we appreciate it talk to you soon. >> you, too. an upgrade just crossing the tape as we still call it morgan stanley upgrading boeing to an over weight from an equal weight morgan stanley said boeing will be supported by strong traffic in part thanks to recently falling oil prices morgan stanley putting a $450 price target on boeing that's $106 in up side in the same note, morgan stanley

also downgraded lockheed martin, lmt, boeing a dow component, by the way, an important dao component because it's a price weighted index getting an upgrade today. stock stories, whoa, bed, bath&beyond soaring. beating forecasts. they also offered a bullish forecast for the year. this stock has been absolutely walloped this year guess what, a lot of short covering there perhaps, but either way it's going to be a big day for bbby k.b. homes fourth quarter sales up you ever seen a home delivered that's a big truck the average selling price falling about 5% kb home up more than 14% in the past month and elon musk, you've heard of him, says tesla will stop selling the cheapest version of the model s and x cars in a series of tweets overnight. musk says tesla will stop taking orders for the cheapest models next week the cheapest tesla

that you can buy of those models will be $96,000. you still have the model 3 let's find out what else you're going to be talking about today. frank holland, what's trending >> "bird box," good movie, terrible ending. >> i'm not going to ruin it. >> 47 million people watched 70% of it. >> it was good it was so behind up. >> but the numbers seem a little -- >> disappointing at the end. i don't want to talk about it. day 20 of the government shutdown, now it's hitting your local grocery store. they're suspendsing routine inspections of routine processing facilities. hundreds of inspectors have been furloughed in the shutdown that means inspections are not happening at their normal pace i wouldn't be too worried. >> don't be too worried by not inspecting food. seems like a big deal. >> just for a few days. >> okay. >> i'm not overly worried. 2019 academy awards telecast six weeks away and it is still

host-less. the academy apparently plans to enlist, this is complicated, it plans to enlist a list of a-list celebrities. >> i can't believe you pulled that off. >> tried throughout the show rather than having one primary host. terrible idea. this is not going to work. >> why not >> it doesn't make sense you want one consistent host telling jokes keeping a theme. you don't want people jumping in and jumping out. >> my wife and i have, tth do you know what that means? >> no. >> trying hard i'll tell you what, just be funny, keep it moving, don't be political and introduce the awards by the way, i'm available. >> that's a them returning we're going to keep it moving and not be political get you off the stage. talk about adding insult to injury, this video has totally gone viral our international fans will love this one a trinidadian soccer player sprawled on the ground, you see it right there he's waiting for the medical

cart to collect him, after an, you can't see them, injury, the driver seemed unconcerned running over the player's foot here's why i'm using my air quotes he was more shocked than hurt by the cart he was able to return to the playing field later on in the game best of all, his team went on to win the match, 1-0 >> so the guy's on the ground with an injury you think it's a fake injury. >> it's soccer. >> he still gets run over by the golf cart. >> he plays again. >> he's tough. >> it's soccer they always go, oh, my god, i'm hurt, i'm hurt. >> trinidad, ugh >> shout out to steve liesman. he had one constructive comment. he thinks it should be later in the show >> we only have 15 minutes left. >> i'm telling you what he says. >> how about liesman gets up earlier. liesman. stella blues band. thank you very much, frank love you, steve. coming up, is 2019 the year

of the so-called activists why we could see board room battles. leslie picker joining you with a story on that coming up. with a cockpit fit for aspaceship. hang on. radar that senses things the human eye can't. busted. and the ability to make a thousand decisions before you even make one. was all this, really necessary? what do you think? ♪

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remember the january rule, as goes joon so goes the markets. as go the first five days of january so goes january. if you believe that it will be a good year according to citigroup. today could be a different story. 2018, so last year, was a tough year for activist investors, but all that could change this year leslie picker who declined for some reason to come on set joins us now with more on this story, leslie. >> reporter: brian, you know i don't make these decisions they don't give me that power where i get to be and when. >> did your ez pass fail trying to get across the bridge no toll that way. >> the 24 hour coffee shops in the city are quite handy this time of day. >> thank you. >> as you mentioned, brand name activist investors down significantly. talking about names like glenview, third point, jana, trian. personing square they lost 10%.

that is leading to redemptions across the strategy. and as assets under management shrink, activists may be limited in the campaigns they wage >> if you have suffered outflows like that, it's going to limit your ability to, you know, wage campaigns and the size of companies. i typically think about an activist portfolio of consisting of anywhere from 20 to 25 stocks up to 35 or 40 if you -- you know, if you have limited assets under management, it's going to restrict the number and the size of the companies. >> reporter: but those limitations will take a while to play out in the market in spite of the selloff, that clearly dentd the activists returns in the year end, the fourth quarter was the most active in q4 by campaign volume. nonetheless, a proxy fight can be harder to win when your

competitor points out your own abysmal performance, brian. >> i have a question outside of the fact why you're afraid seemingly to come to new jersey. anyway, how about this last year all of the volatility hasn't scared off the activists that you've covered. why not? >> reporter: right right. activists are at their heart and core value investors so activists saw this reset as more of an opportunity rather than something to fear. they deployed capital en masse the reason is because we saw such a significant selloff that companies they had been eyeing that had been too expensive, they suddenly had an entry point that made sense for them to generate better returns in the future for their investors that's the hope. >> yeah, that is certainly the hope we'll see, by the way, big story -- bless you bless you. leslie picker, thank you very much great stuff. we'll see you on "squawk box." >> thanks, brian. >> come to new jersey.

still ahead, the oil pull back prices falling a little bit on some geopolitical worries. don't worry, it has been a big year for oil if you were smart enough to buy a couple of oil etfs, you have banked some coin we'll show you how much when we return

oil prices taking a little bit of a step back 52 bucks been a torrid start to the year. if you were smart enough or lucky enough to buy some of the energy-related etfs on new year's day, said, hey, let's take a flyer because they have collapsed, you're feeling pretty good look at the returns on some of these big etfs oil and gas up 18% since january first. the xop, exploration and production, up 15% invesco, psce, 17 in the oil fund xle, xoi up 14, 8, 8%.

returns bigger for individual names. these are year to date returns, and it's only january, what, 9th? hess up 24%. concho up 20% and a patc apache. paul, you were in opec we were together in that room in the basement we watched everybody come up and talk about the production cuts and then we watched the price of oil collapse are you surprised by this recent rebound? >> well, i think that, yes, somewhat we know that we're in a seasonably weak time we know that we started at a low as you said. christmas eve was the low on oil for the year so we started the year a bit on a low point. i think ultimately what's happened has been with the saudis, what the saudis has done for the market to that time, they surged. the question then was how much

is saudi going to come back in terms of production and what we've seen is a couple of very clear statements of intent and actually less barrels on the market that has really been a big part of serving to offset the 1.3 million barrels a day. >> let's play a game, true or false. are you ready, paul? >> sure. >> true or false the saudis want 75, $80 barrel oil >> no. >> i think they can get $62. the eleven three that they did in november revealed a whole new capacity from saudi that we didn't know about. we had never seen them above 10.8 suddenly it was like, wow, there's way more capacity than we anticipated you're asking exactly the right question which is, okay, what does saudi want be for the oil price. what we know for sure is it's higher than where we are whether or not they can get to 70 or 80 is debatable.

i certainly think their intent is to get higher that's why we've seen such great performance. >> true or false, they were taken off guard. eight countries getting wavers >> yeah, that was a massive head fake we thought oil was going triple digit. we like to think it wasrophecy the fact that they were saying here comes 100 is the reason for saying that. the big reason is saudi and the dollar the saudi has a capacity issue and that's key which is why your question is dead right the dollar has been a bit weak zbler can u.s. production go higher here, paul? >> you need higher oil prices. i think when we saw 40 at midland, which is what we saw two, three weeks ago that's the permian price of oil hitting the price where they stopped growing. we saw them pulling back rigs. the fact is we have proof we're not going any lower. that was a big reason why we started to see it so well.

in the context of seven really bad years. >> paul sanke of englewood cliffs, we have to stop meeting like this. >> i'm headed to japan if you want a live feed from japan. >> don't say it because we'll do it worldwide exchange 62 bucks a barrel. time for your morning rbi. do you remember this sound >> welcome you've got mail! >> okay. why are we playing that? because it was 19 years ago today that aol merged with time warner in that whopping $164 billion deal 19 years ago today at the time, biggest deal in history. here's what's random and interesting. it's 2017 data, but 2.1 million people still used aol's dial up service to get online as of the last data. yes, i know it's not that fresh, two years old, so what 2 million people in late 2017

still dialing up plug in that modem and have a great day, america that's it for "worldwide exchange." "squawk bo inex"s xt

good morning futures are under pressure we'll talk about the risk factors and bring you new data from china that was released last night oil is off today what a correlation there sears chairman eddie lampert raising his bid to buy the company in a last-ditch effort to avoid liquidation the art of the deal or non-art, president trump walking away from democratic leaders. we'll tell you what it means for the shutdown on this thursday, january 10th, 2019 "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ ♪

♪ these boots are made for walking and that's just what they'll do ♪ >> live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box. good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. let's check out the u.s. equities you'll see right now that things are in the red dow futures indicated down by 150 points s&p off by 19 and nasdaq down by 53 this comes after a very steep increase that we've seen for the markets across the board in fact, u.s. stocks are on their swiftest rebound in nearly a decade since the lows on christmas eve the dow jones industrial average and the s&p have built up more than 9.5%. that's the best ten day performance since july of 2009 s&p up