>> one word, peter >> absolutely and any transfer of shares has to be reported >> all right >> we will hear about it. >> you're right. peter henning, thank you so much for joining us and robert frank as well. that does it for "the exchange." "power lunch" begins right now kelly and david, welcome everybody to "power lunch. i'm tyler mathisen new at 2:00. broader markets struggling today but not netflix. we'll explain that one 2018, a record for pc investment how is 2019 looking and the government shutdown, real world impact on small business "power lunch" begins right now >> welcome to "power lunch." i'm melissa lee. breaking news right now on the banks and the impact of the shutdown steve liesman has all the details. steve? >> melissa, thank you very much. the federal reserve and several bank agencies out now with guidance to the financial firms to work with those affected by

the government shutdown. regulators urging for them to consider things like loan modifications orextending credit to those affected by the shutdown and then saying such arrangements should not be subject to examination or criticism of the examiners what's interesting about this kind of guidance they give typically with natural disasters such as hurricanes or in november, the california fires separately, cnbc asked with moody's rep on the shutdown effect of growth we're tracking pretty strong for the fourth quarter 2.9% but the median estimate is a 0.1% from gdp effect in this quarter and the next quarter, 2.4% of first quarter of 2019 and 0.1% hit to gdp from the shutdown melissa? >> presumably, loans, mortgages, things like that but if you're a landlord, for instance, and pay a mortgage and tenant happens to

be a government employee, that's sort of, not a direct link there to prove to the banks. >> yeah, i imagine the banks would consider all of that and sort of take that into account the idea would be that the money is coming and not to make any drastic action what's interesting about this, melissa, this is the sort of thing the fed issues during natural disasters. this is a manmade disaster >> yep thank you, steve liesman two hours left in the trading day. major averages look like they end the five day winning streak. bob pisani is at the new york stock exchange with why washington may be to blame. >> a little bit of nervousness about the shutdown not in the first couple of weeks but we get into three or four weeks, a lot of notes starting to fly around the last 24 hours about the impact on certain industries let me give you a quick round-up cowen had a note about the impact of airlines and doing

business and then how the shutdown will hurt marriott and implicitly, others and bmo, no doubt on the impact of low income consumers and the retailers who cater to low income consumers could be and the defense contractors disrupted, nassau and the state department likely to face disruption modest moves in some of the stocks moving this right now and the key right now is if this drags on to brexit week, a lot more notes like this. >> thanks, bob bob pisani despite today's drop, market off to the best start in 13 years. how much weight should investors put into this red hot start? joining us, the co-founder of the spoke investment roup. great to have you with us. this is earnings eve so what is going to be the true tell on earnings is it going to be apple or is it going to be gm >> i think, rather than focus on one specific stock, look at how stocks are reporting how they react. we had a clue last quarter going

into earnings season, when you saw the early companies in mid september and early october report, they were getting sold on the news. they were down an average of about 4% on the day of the earnings reaction day. and so far this quarter, even since the christmas eve blow, companies that have reported have been falling a little under 2% on the day they report earnings so we're still seeing some selling on the news, which isn't the most optimistic scenario heading into earnings season. >> markets up about 10%. i mean, that's a terrible set-up into earnearnings. >> the fact the stocks as the market rallied 10%, the reporting has been falling on the report days is even more telling because in this rising tide environment, these companies haven't gotten that lift >> let's bring in john, a portfolio manager with western asset. what struck me about the q and a

that jerome powell had yesterday with david rubenstein, he specifically mentioned apple is that going to be, is the earnings season going to be good data points for the fed, is that going to feed in, do you think, to what the fed says come end of january? >> it would be an interesting thing to watch in earnings, not so much how they do last quarter but the guidance going forward earnings guidance is coming down quite a bit and where we were last year and earnings up 20%, year over year, a lot of that was the tax cut. that is now no longer tailwind and you're having slowing growth at the same time earnings growth is coming down and you're going to see that in the forecast so i'm not sure jerome powell cares so much about apple but certainly will be watching the message from the corporate sector in terms of their expected earnings and what does that mean for expected growth. i think the message there is just one way it's moderation. it's not as strong as we saw last year. >> i've heard a lot of people say what you just said and that's the tax cut was a one time boost to earnings but i

don't know why that's the case if the tax rates are going to remain at 21% for corporations, aren't they going to continue to benefit from a much lower tax rate than they had two years ago? >> that's a fair point so the tax cut was a one time boost in the terms of the sense of year over year growth, but you're right corporations still have more cash that they're receiving as a result that's going to help them going forward. one thing we focused on is that additional cash that corporations have is actually good for their credit profile and that means they have to borrow less, metrics have to come down a little bit there i agree with you that the cash for corporations is something that, keep in mind, that's a positive, but again, i think on kind of a forward growth basis, growth is coming down, so you have to hold both ideas in your head one, corporations are better off with the tax cut but the growth and what that means for u.s. growth going forward is moderate there's no question about that. >> the growth rate matters for the tax cut effect last year

does this particular earnings season as we move through the year and people talk about guidance, do they just have tough comparables? >> it's tougher this time around and to what john was saying, hopefully they listen to the conference calls and what is going on in the trenches, so to speak. so the fed was really hawkish as the market was declining and really pivoted over the last couple of weeks. the question is going forward. much more are they going to let the markets run before they put on the brakes again? whereas for years in the bull market, we were in a win-win situation with slower growth meant more easing or accelerating growth just meant a stronger economy and now almost the other look where we're seeing stronger growth is going to bring the fed back in and more aggressive fit and the market doesn't seem to like that, so it's just interesting to see how much strength they're willing to tolerate in the markets before they try to get back in and because we know they want to normalize the balance sheet and in the back of the minds, they want to get interest rates higher how are they going to go about

doing that >> paul, thank you last word john >> some things on that developments recently have suggested the fed will keep this posture for some time and that's the muted inflation outlook. today's cpi report suggests inflation is not accelerating. we think there's downside risk to inflation going forward so even if you have a balance in growth, that means the fed doesn't necessarily respond and worry about risk management and downside risks i think that's really important. the fed's objective here is to keep the economy going, to keep the recovery on track and their focus on downside risks is both appropriate but means they don't need to respond to an up movement in the equity market and the supportive posture that's the right thing to do at this point in the cycle. >> john bellows, dan, thank you. transition to netflix. a lot of red out there today but it is all green. up 4%. the stock moving higher here

today. a big upgrade from raymond james today. $450 a share from $337 today and up 23% this year and earnings out next week. the analyst behind that upgrade, justin patterson why are you so bullish on netflix, george w. bujustin >> we were bullish before, just got more bullish the function there is really a couple of factors. one, we see ongoing subscriber momentumful that's ful momentum both the u.s. momentum and more traction internationally netflix starting to succeed in b films. take "bird box." 45 million unique, a movie that probably wouldn't have gotten that much distribution at the box office and then profit margins. if you look at netflix, the knock has been profitability is

low, free cash flow burn has been high. given enough guide posts with initial commentary towards 2019, that you can start seeing netflix really round that curve on investments and generate material, free cash flow and material earnings over the last five years. >> did you see "bird box"? >> i did >> what did you think? >> you don't want to know my media habits >> when i saw it, it was, let's say, disturbing and quirky, but be that as it may, that's one film what about the amount of money though that netflix is committed to spending on content to increase its library, that's number one, and they are doing it in part to compensate for the fact that some of their content partners are leaving the ship? >> right, right. to your point, disney is removing its licensing agreement

with netflix disney is a huge chunk of the box office, particularly, in the wake of the fox deal so for netflix, you do have to back fill some of that content libra library, but i would look at it this way disney, fox, that's competing at the very high end of the market. the big global films like a "black panther" or "avengers," that's still a lot of content to acquire. roma, that had a great showing at the golden globes netflix helped build an audience for that i think of it more as -- >> what was your point in the note about the relative underperformance versus traditional media? i mean, is it, do you want to make a comparison with traditional media or should netflix live in its own separate peer group >> netflix is actually a better against traditional media. part of the criticism is they're all very different companies media advertising and e-commerce, against the

companies they're taking shares against. netflix typically outperformed or underperformed, there's generally been an inverse relationship with traditional media. so if you go back to 2016 when netflix lagged, traditional media was outperforming. back half of 2018, traditional media outperformed as investors focused on free cash flow amid that technology rotation now that netflix earnings look a little more safe, there's more positive revision potential. you should start to see netflix outperform again >> next time, justin, it will be justin and ty's movie reviews. >> sounds great. >> see you then. general motors calling phil right now. >> it's the bureau the own people are not even watching. >> general motors, and then shares are soaring after the company raised the outlook and its take on tesla with a cadillac and spoke with thing

gmc this morning >> we'll talk about the cadillac news in a little bit but this is the reason the stock is moving higher much better than expected guidance from general motors, not only for the full year 2018 results which are going to becoming out if the next couple of weeks but also look at 2019 in terms of earnings per share in 2018, expecting to exceed their current guidance and that guidance was given at the end of the third quarter and then expect for 2019 to have even greater earnings than what the analyst consensus is at least a buck and a half higher than the current consensus and then free cash flow growth more than most people are expecting with regards to cadillac, general motors today confirming it will be making cadillac the lead brand when it comes to electric vehicles. they'll have electric vehicles in the other brands as well but want to bring the first technology there with an all-new electric, all electric cadillac. here's mary barra talking this morning about the future of

cadillac >> reporter: when you look at cadillac, you know, it is our technology brand, so i think it's appropriate as we really continue to advance and enhance our battery electric technology that cadillac is the first brand that it representsthat >> take a look at 2018, electric vehicle sales in the united states there's no comparison here almost 200,000 teslas were sold, most of those being the model 3. number two, a very distant number two, general motors a good chunk of those were the bolt, which has not lived up to sales expectations but gm said we think it's well received. the volt is phased out gm will say our customers were satisfied with it but focus on bmw on the right because bmw will be ramping up the ev efforts and so will other premium brands because of the cost of the electric battery i know we talk about the mass market ev. we're aways from that really taking place you've got to bring down the

cost in order to be profitable here. >> people looked at the success of the toyota prius and said, oh, the way to make inroads is to go mass market with this new technology but unfortunately, at the hybrid cost structure is completely different than that of electric vehicles so it sounds like they're throwing in the towel on the mass market idea all together. >> they're saying they're not. they'll have mass market electric vehicles but in the meantime, they'll say cadillac is the brand that will feature the electric vehicle technology first and then we'll have an all new ev caddy coming, who knows, they didn't say today or what type of vehicle. >> electric, not hybrid. >> all electric. >> cadillac is a great brand in china. >> it is and they're growing quickly in china at the end of the day, it's all about china. >> phil, thank you up next, apple, the biggest loser in the dow so far this year and down today as well. reports say services are slowing. china's cutting prices and more new phones are on the way.

what should they do next government shutdown, a smkerd breaker and back brear for all businesses we'll meet one later this hour "power lunch" will be right back there goes our first big order. ♪ 44, 45, 46... how many of these did they order? ooh, that's hot. ♪ you know, we could sell these. nah. ♪ we don't bake. ♪ opportunity. what we deliver by delivering. state of the art technology makes it brilliant. the lexus nx, experience the crossover

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i am a techie dad.n. i believe the best technology should feel effortless. like magic. at comcast, it's my job to develop, apps and tools that simplify your experience. my name is mike, i'm in product development at comcast. we're working to make things simple, easy and awesome. welcome back to "power lunch. apple one of the biggest drags on the dow right now as you see right there. down by more than 1% stock down 4% so far in 2019 it is right now the biggest loser in the dow three headlines we're watching reports of new iphones this fall

plus apple cutting prices in china and new concerns about the growth of its services business. what does it all mean for apple and the shareholders of the company? btig's managing director walter piecyk joins us. he still has a buy rating on them let's start with the services business work our way back to iphones and so forth and price cuts. story this morning in the "wall street journal" indicating that apple may be bracing for slower growth in the services business. what do you know, what do you think? >> services had a huge growth year last year, so there's going to be a lull of large numbers. there can be some slowing, but they are continuing to expand the eco-system and they've hired a lot of people. they've hired a couple of guys from sony, presumably to build up some type of media services so they're looking for ways to add more services to existing customers, in addition, i'm sure you've seen the press reports about price reductions in china and some other markets

you get more people buying the phone, then you have more opportunity and more customers to drive service revenue there let's put this in perspective. you're still talking about a 25 or 30% growth line for a company that's pretty big. and that growth from services and wearables, and even ipad, which is a double digit grower now, is going to help the company return to overall growth, i think, in the september quarter of this year the third calendar quarter or the third fiscal quarter. >> let's talk a little bit about the price cuts as far as we know according to the reports, apply to certain suppliers or vendors, buyers, whatever you want to call it, in china, as far as i can tell. do they need in your view to expand those price cuts beyond that one marketplace and beyond that one product >> just to be clear, it's not the first time that apple has selectively gone into a market and reduced pricing. they've done that many years

past and more recently and in japan or china, so they can experiment and see how well it goes in china and i think to the company's point and to our own view, like the china was the issue this quarter i know there's been a lot of discussion about people holding on their phones longer than they used to but that's an old thesis the iphone 6 was a huge product that was four years ago and the replacement cycle in developed markets has been lengthening for four years now for someone to come out and say, this is it the replacement cycle is the reason apple is missing is not really true. china was the big miss we'll see what happens in 2019 the indications we're getting from several operators in developed markets is the rate of this lengthening of the product segment was actually slowing and you may have an opportunity for an inversion why? not because they necessarily came out with some great product this year or they're going to come out with some of the great product in 2019 and september and december quarter but people just have old phones they're carrying iphone 6 and 6

s's they bought and at some point, there will be an upgrade cycle. >> your revenue estimate growth is 0% growth >> first quarter is horrendous. >> when you buy apple, what are you paying for if you're not getting any revenue growth >> you're paying a 25% discount to the s&p 500 which is at a 15 multiple and if they exit the year at 0% in terms of top line growth at 6%, that's the expectation now but when they return to growth in the third or fourth quarter, maybe that argues for a market multiple because they're delivering top line if, for the year, there's no growth in net income, they do have this $80 billion if purchase that's likely to occur this year to help them deliver earnings growth and it's not the first time that apple's gone through a year where revenue has declined and they've been able to pull the levers in terms of sharing purchase in order to deliver earnings growth. what you're paying for is the belief that they can return to

growth in a second half of the year on things like services and wearables and even the ipad and then we'll see how the replacement cycle works when we exit 2019 into 2020. >> walter, always great to see you. thank you for being with us. >> you bet. big bounce after a monster rally for the december lows up more than 20%. we'll tell you the name and see if it's worth getting in right now. why bother mastering something?

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biotech breaking out now more than 20% off its december lows and having its best start to the year since 2012 so what's the best way to catch this rally mark newton of newton advisers and chad morganlander of crossing advisers joining me to talk about that. big snapback some m&a news. do you think this move is for real >> mike, i think it's really helped momentum quite a bit but listen, it's been a 27% move in the last 12 trading days i caution investors to chase moves like this that happened so quick

quick. if you put in perspective, it lost about 35% in four months. so we've actually regained about half of that just in the last couple of weeks. certainly good on an intermediate term basis but i think near term, it's best to let this consolidate and set a little bit i look at charts like the sbi and etf for biotech and my thinking is if it gets back to the mid 70s, that's really much more a risk/reward, better risk/reward to buying in chasing it here. >> a lot of ways to cut biotuec. some of the big names and then the smaller ones that maybe are in play for other reasons. >> yeah, you know, i have to agree with mark that valuations do look sectionally cheap and i think you could see underperformance in the short run and when you look six to 12 months out, we would be buyers

of the biotech index we believe that they're going to continue to grow on the top line, well above the s&p 500 for revenues as well as for earnings we think the consolidation of the industry has just begun and will continue to and of course, this is a safe haven sector or group, rather. we believe that as the global economy decelerates issue this is one of the sectors at this point. >> obviously, health care has been a big leadership sector recently guys, we'll leave it there for more trading nation, head to the web site or follow us on twitter at @tradenation. back to you. >> sue herera with your cnbc headlines. hey, sue. >> hey, melissa. here's what's happening at this hour, everyone secretary of state mike pompeo is arriving in adu dhabi with the nine nation tour of the middle east aimed to reassure america's allies that withdrawing troops from syria

does not mean washington is abandoning the region. the news conference earlier today, authorities in wisconsin discuss the arrest of 21-year-old jake thomas patterson on charges of kidnapping jayme kloss after murdering her parents. >> she escaped the residence at which she was being held and found help we do not believe the suspect had any contact with the family at this time we do believe jayme was the only target and the first footage has been released of the moment that chinese spacecraft landed on the far side of the moon it is the first time a spacecraft has landed on that side which always faces away from the earth but scientists say it has more craters than the near side. fascinating story. that is the news update this hour ty, i'll send it back to you. sue, thank you very much oil market closing for the day dom chu is on it >> a down day for oil prices

brent crude futures on the day by about a couple of a percent 51, 61 the winning streaks have been snapped, both benchmark prices posting the second straight week of gains, however, optimism over the u.s. and china trade developments have been a driving force behind the christmas move off the lows and up 20% and the energy sectors guys, the best performer in the s&p 500 up 16% since then and then baker hughes, showed active oil rigs back to you, kelly. >> thank you, dom chu. still ahead on "power lunch," dc investing hit an all time high. will this year top that for venture capital? plus, the shutdown slamming small business one who says sales have dropped off a cliff and our special series, investing for a lifetime today, it's all about protecting your money in your 70s we'll be right back. >> and now the latest from

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lunch" everybody if bond market and 10 year focus right now, rick santelli has the the action hi, rick >> hi, tyler at the beginning of the year, many were very gun shy about the treasury market. really gave up a lot of ground and rightly so with all the issues of federal reserve, central banks and the equity markets but really righted itself but as you see this one week, it's hit a block of quarters and big psychological area to pay attention to the dollar index, longer term chart, you can really see it's rounding after being in quite a tight range of lofty levels. forsaking the side to etf side and like to point out the munis.

hig, about height, yield, got the sea logs back. all of that represents a calmness and a matter of getting more data back up. melissa lee, back to you >> rick santelli, thank you. 2018 was a record breaking year vc invested $131 billion eclipsing the dot-com bubble with concern around the ipo market, will we see a slowdown in 2019? ellie wheeler, great to have you with us. how was 2018 in terms of the pace of the dollars? i'm curious if it followed the markets higher up through october, september period and then dropped off and i'm wondering what you're seeing in the beginning of 2019. >> it takes quite a bit of time for the public markets to filter down into the private. i mean, at the pre-ipo grounds are the first to be hit but the rest take quite a long time. 2018, it was active, it was busy, pretty concentrated.

there were an awful lot of, you know, hundred million dollar plus and 56% of the overall vc dollars was actually in those and even more extreme in q4 so we were seeing even more large rounds at the end of the year and so far, it's only two weeks in, or really even a full week in still quite a bit of activity, so there's no signs it's slowing down. >> how, if at all, will the government shutdown impact exits? >> impact on the ipos, right obviously, can't get through the filings if there's no one to look at them so, you know, there's an awful lot of big names in the private universe that are talking about 2019 ipos. we could see the timing shiflt a little b little bit but we don't know. >> i'm surprised the end of the year was so strong is that because public markets there's a feeling that silicon valley's moment kind of peaked

going back a couple of years so, truly, it really kind of feels that way are these established companies that just were sort of bolstering their balance sheet especially because public markets weren't open and they aren't looking towards an exit anytime soon or are these new companies and where are they coming from? >> it's all of the above what i would say is while you talk about the markets slowing down and of course that has an impact because we have to return the dollars, it's the overall trends and what technology is doing across multiple vert ical and all verticals. the importance of tech and industries that traditionally haven't utilized that's all real. >> about these kinds of names we're talking about, especially towards the end of the year? >> oh, sure. i mean, my point is more macro it's not about, you know, what was happening at the end of the year it's just that the secular trend is so real that the momentary blip in the public markets, there's a tremendous amount of

opportunity for start-ups whether they're just fledgling and starting right now and some of the more mature names to act more like the public markets will because they're closer so it takes a while for it to go through and honestly, there's still so much opportunity that even if this steps back a bit, it would have been a huge economic shock to step back a ton. >> a slowing economy, to your point, maybe just answered it. if that's what we're heading into, affect these businesses and your business? >> it does a bit, but not as much as in some other sectors because, you know, the timing, you were mentioning in q4, a lot of these deals, you know, it's been months in the making, so you're not going to see it right away that's right and you'll see it like anyone. especially in an enterprise business, that will filter through and have an impact is the customers aren't actually purchasing products. it will be impacted but still so

much capital in the private markets that was recently raised that still has to be deployed and it will take a while >> thank you for visiting us we appreciate it three week shutdown combined with the trade turmoil with china is putting the squeeze on farmers and literally driving them nuts. out in california at an almond farm with more, dede >> reporter: we are at mon thte vista. we'll show you how the government shutdown plays into all of this coming up in a live report i consulted with your grandmother's doctor. we can do the screening at her house. hi. this is the man that's going to check your eyes grandma. cognizant ai solutions are helping healthcare companies advance diagnostics and prevent blindness in patients with diabetes. everything looks good. you have beautiful eyes.

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it's day 21 of the government shutdown now tied for the longest shutdown in history. there doesn't seem to be an end in sight, couple this with the trade war and farmers hit with a whammy to detail the damage being done. dede >> reporter: hi, melissa

we are at monta vista farming. there are three critical crop reports supposed to come out today but the shutdown has delayed them those reports show the command for corn, wheat and soybeans and also how much crop was produced last year. the information vacuum is especially critical for soybean farmers and traders who use the data to set price and planting decisions. another impact of the government shutdown, the tariffs delayed and then farm service agency services are closed across the country and president trump addressing farmers at the farm bureau convention scheduled in new orleans for monday >> thank you very much and dede, the government will eventually reopen. employees will get paid and most will get paid backpay as well. but our next guest is the exclusive catering partner for the house of representatives and other impacted dc agencies she says revenue on the hill is

off 50% and she said if the shutdown lasts until monday, lose $120,000 worth of business. another week of that, the number balloons to nearly a half a million bucks in total and additional $330,000 or so. bring in susan, ridge well's catering ceo and a member of the ypo, an exclusive partner of cnbc welcome and welcome back i know your company well and grew up in arlington and i know the purple trucks all over the place. you're losing money. have you had to lay off people yet? >> hey, tyler. good to see you dpagain. unfortunately not, because this is a partial shutdown so the hill is still open so no furloughs as of yet. >> what kinds of events are being postponed or delayed are they government events or private events that would attract government people or maybe take place at venues like the smithsonian there and space museum and other places that are

shut >> it's two-fold it's the activity that's going on at the hill there isn't that much activity now, if you remember, we were shut down in 2013 in october which is a very, a peak month for us january, not so much and we're seeing an impact in january and on the hill, but not as much as we did in october. the smithsonian is an important part of it and important events in january that people are just cancelling and they're in town specifically for event and not going to reschedule it and not able to take them elsewhere. so it's a combination of both the government and the social. >> at what point would you have to lay people off? >> it's hard to say. we really hate to do that, tyler. i mean, we are partially open, so there is activity going on and the beauty with events is that if there isn't an event, i'm not hiring any of the people to work the events, but we are still up and running back at headquarters and on the hill >> so as you look at the major

dropoffs, 50% at the house of representatives, department of transportation off 70% and the cafes you run in the pentagon. i know you're a private company. i don't expect you to put sharp points on these numbers but what percent of your total revenue has been affected by this shutdown in other words, what percent of it is tied to the government one way or another >> i think it's about 30% for us and again, fortunately, it's january and it's typically a slower month for us and things are a bit not as high impact but 30% on the total revenue >> so what are you hearing from other members of the ypo about how this shutdown has affected them and their business? >> good question i actually was at an event last night with a lot of my fellow ypoa ypo-ers and it's the service companies that are impacted. for example.

one of my favorite ypo-ers owns a hotel in dulles and now they had to back off because there's no tsa tactical training parking. my colleague has a parking and no signed contract for 2019 for highway construction it's a slow period for them but to ramp up, there's going to be lag time with permitting and cash flow, we haven't gotten paid from the government contrac contracts from november and december and we're concerned about that. >> ongoing issue and hope to hear from you again as this process works its way out. >> thanks so much, tyler thank you for having me. >> susan lass. >> all right. investing for a lifetime focusing on people in the 70s. smart ways to get e thmost out of retirement money and how to protect it that's coming up rebekkah: opioids has taken everything

and everyone i've ever loved away from me. everything. i blew my ankle out and i got prescribed pain pills by my doctor. if making my detox public is gonna help somebody i'm all for it. i just wish i would've had a warning.

it's time for the final installment of our power lunch series, investing for a lifetime we've gone through the best financial strategies for every age group this week, beginning with millenials. today we're in our 70s

how should retirees make the most of their savings. joining us is stacy francis. thanks for joining us. >> thank you. >> 70s is tricky because you're already there. >> yeah. >> so people feel like how do i increase my resources while using them wisely. what's your main advice? >> make sure you're staying on top of your investments, that you're rebalancing oftentimes your stocks are growing much more quickly. if you don't pay attention, you could find that you're way out of whack. >> what about required minimum distributions. people have to start taking this once they hit this age bracket how do they do that wisely and in a tax efficient way. >> number one, not taking that required minimum distribution, having to pay a 50% penalty. your account ability or the brokerage company that you work with will tell you how much you need to take you need to of course then take it some people only take the minimum. and it could be that you want to

take more than the minimum so that you don't have to bunch up and increase your contributions later years that could skyrocket you into a higher tax bracket. so you might want to take a little more. >> you do get notified by your custodian, don't you >> exactly you do get notified, but also i have seen individuals change their e-mails, have moved during the year where things can slip through the cracks so being an empowered investor is important to know that you need to be taking it every year. >> you should rebalance your assets every single year >> exactly at least once a year. >> at least? >> at least once a year. we see higher investment performance for people who up to twice a year that's the ideal is twice a year at least once a year if you think about the ups and the downs especially this year and when we saw in 2018, your portfolio is changing significantly, so you need to stay on top of it to make sure

that you are really in a position to weather out the crazy ride that we're seeing in the market. >> two quick questions if i might, and you can give me a yes or no on the first one yesterday we asked our guest what is the rough amount that a person should feel withdrawing from their investments every year what's the number? >> 4%. that's our number. >> and that should continue -- you should not outlive your money, which is i think everybody's biggest fear a lot of people in their 60s and 70s think medicare, i'm set. i don't have to worry about my medical costs. >> yeah, no. it's at least $4,500 on average a year what we see is medical costs from there only go up, particularly for women we see women paying much higher medical costs and long-term care costs. women are 60% more likely to have to pay for long-term care if you think that you're healthy and it's not going to happen to you, 70% of americans are going to have some type of long-term

care event in their life. >> if you're in your 70s, is it too late to buy long-term care insurance? >> it most likely can be too late for you unless you're like the woman who passed me during the iron man who was 78. for her i think she could have probably -- >> and should you be buying it >> you should be buying it ideally in your 40s and 50s. if you're worried about early onset hereditary disease, you might even want to look a little sooner. >> can annuities help to give you cash flow to use for long-term care if you don't have those policies >> annuities can be a good fit the biggest thing i would say is look for low cost, low commission annuities the good news, there's more options out there today than there were ten years ago because they can be expensive. >> just off the top, what does it cost for long-term care it's different in different parts of the country, obviously. >> yeah. >> what should you be thinking of if you're thinking i may have a loved one or it may be i that

needs to go into long-term care. >> unfortunately the prices have gone up. you can be paying as little as $2,500 a year in premium. >> i'm talking about the cost of the medical facility itself. >> oh, the cost. >> if you're not covered. >> you're looking at a minimum of $200 a day. a minimum of $200 a day for that. >> that's $100,000 a year? >> we look at about $9,000 to $10,000 a month for the cost of a good long-term care facility so the premiums you'd pay for a policy, if you're going to use it, are going to be well worth that investment. >> all right, stacy, thank you very much. stacy francis, we appreciate it. i think check, please is next, right? yeah [leaf blower] you should be mad at leaf blowers. [beep] you should be mad your neighbor always wants to hang out.

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we've got just over an hour until the closing bell we're down across the board but just fractionally. it's been five days without having a move of greater than 1%, so this is sort of unusual for the markets, especially after we got used to all the volatility of late let's get to dom chu for a market flash bed, bath and beyond is in focus. >> again to the upside check out what's happening, up about 6%, those shares up 35% year to date and 44% since that

december 24th low. it means it is having the best week, those shares, bed, bath and beyond since 2000. >> let's go back and recap our week of investing for a lifetime we went 20s, 30s, 40s, 50s, 60s, 70s. in your 20s the message is start early. time is your ally, so is compounding of interest. in your 30s do that. in your 40s auto escalate your 401(k), which means set it on a track where each year you're contributing a higher percentage to your 401(k) in your 50s consider looking into annuities, but then there are annuities and then there are annuities. some of them are beloved and some of them are beloathed in your 60s make sure your estate plan is set and in your 70s get ready for health issues. don't think that medicare will cover everything. >> you know my takeaway is that it's not all about asset allocation we talk so much about that

some of the best stuff you can do to cover yourself is way beyond that. you don't have to worry so much about that day to day. >> just start saving as much as you can. thank you for watching "power lunch. have a great weekend. >> it's been a great week. congratulations on the new program, and we'll see you next week "closing bell" starts right now. good friday afternoon, welcome to "the closing bell." i'm wilfred frost. >> and i'm sara eisen. general motors predicting strong earnings in 2019 as it plans to expand its footprint overseas. we'll talk to the former gm vice chairman bob lutz. crude oil is jumping since the start of the year. we'll ask francisco blanch. >> first up, a check on the markets. it does look like we are set to break the winning streak that stocks have been on.