some of the best stuff you can do to cover yourself is way beyond that. you don't have to worry so much about that day to day. >> just start saving as much as you can. thank you for watching "power lunch. have a great weekend. >> it's been a great week. congratulations on the new program, and we'll see you next week "closing bell" starts right now. good friday afternoon, welcome to "the closing bell." i'm wilfred frost. >> and i'm sara eisen. general motors predicting strong earnings in 2019 as it plans to expand its footprint overseas. we'll talk to the former gm vice chairman bob lutz. crude oil is jumping since the start of the year. we'll ask francisco blanch. >> first up, a check on the markets. it does look like we are set to break the winning streak that stocks have been on.

first down day in the last six sessions well off the lows. the dow is down 203 points at the low. s&p came within a point of going positive it's down a third of 1%. the russell is flat on the day. >> let's remind ourselves, week to date still looking pretty good the s&p 500 is up 2.3% the dow and the nasdaq in and around that amount as well but first the government shutdown is now tied for the longest running shutdown ever. according to s&p global, the shutdown could shave $1.2 billion off gdp growth for the quarter each week that it continues. let's get to bob pisani for more on how it's impacting the market. >> in the last 24 hours, there has been a flurry of analysts' notes, and it's clear wall street is starting to get a little nervous about the potential impact of the shutdown let's just take a look at some of the trader notes and analyst notes here could you

cowen had a note talking about the impact on airlines and corporate travel american, very big hubs in washington, how it's impacted them macquarie talked about marriott and other big hotel chains bmo talked about the impact on low-income consumers it jeopardizes food stamps and other benefits that harm low-income consumers as well as retailers that service them. moody's had a comment about defense contractors being disrupted, being who service nasa or the state department likely to face disruption. if you look at the actual stock market impact on companies around these particular areas, not much american was down yesterday on some comments that are separate from the shutdown, but clearly wall street is getting a little concerned. these notes will proliferate a lot more early monday and tuesday morning i anticipate cowen just had a much larger note out on bigger themes about delayed paychecks, delayed tax rebates and delayed snap benefits those are the supplemental nutrition assistance program,

essentially food stamps. this will get much bigger later next week. guys, back to you. >> already historic in terms of how long it will last. it's a record tomorrow joining us, sam stovall is here, evan brown, rick santelli at the cme group in chicago sam, are you surprised that stocks haven't really reacted negatively to the shutdown >> not really, because if you go back over the last 40 years, we've had more than 20 government shutdowns the average change from the start to the end has been flat, and the worst performance was in 1979 we were down just about 4%. the best performance is this year so the market has actually been going up, i think primarily because of the bottom that we reached on december 24th. >> we're now into the longest ever does that not hurt the economy moving forward we've seen various gdp downgrades that in due course can affect

the market. >> since the average shutdown is only eight days, the longer we go, we're going into uncharted territory. with that estimate of $1.2 billion being shaved off of gdp for every day it's going on, that is a concern. but still i think the focus is primarily on q4 earnings and 2019 guidance combined with what the outcome of the trade talks will be. >> yeah, let's pick up there, evan how's the market set up now that we've had this mini rebound, but still more than 10% off the highs for the s&p for earnings season, which really kicks off in earnest next week >> yeah, that's right. it makes sense for the markets to take a little bit of a breather here. i really think the earnings are going to be what drives the market over the next few weeks we've had the fed pause or the signaling of the fed pause we now have some constructive news on the trade front. now we actually get into the

earnings what will be key is the guidance we get from these companies. how much are they being affected by slower global growth, rising labor costs weighing on margins and the like our focus will be purely on earnings over the next few weeks. >> rick, what's your main takeaway this week for the bond markets? i think we've seen a slight steepening of the curve. what's been the main driver for that >> i think the word pause flexibility lead me to one conclusion we are at a temporary neutral rate i think if you consider it that way, things line up better i i think the treasury complex is paying an inoedor nant amount of attention of what's going on in equities these markets are still a bit fr

fragile, so in my opinion thinking about the fed in a temporary neutral allows the markets and how they digest economic fundamentals when we finally get them released as to lead the fed as to its next move as given the market much comfort. i think that's actually a very good thing, not only domestically, but i think with our markets toning down some of their anxieties a bit, my guess is that will be very contagious into the global sphere as well. >> that raises a question, evan. where do you want to be right now, in the u.s. market or overseas, emerging markets, just coming off the highest level in about a month on this idea rick is talking about, if the fed takes a pause, it helps them as much as it helps us. >> we think the dollar will stage a meaningful depreciation this year. it's not just the pause from the fed, but it's also we just think reserve managers around the world, they see the u.s. political uncertainty and we're

seeing them beginning to diversify away from the dollar and into other currencies. so when you have a weaker dollar environment, that's obviously better for emerging markets. and given how hard emerging markets got hit during the bulk of last year, there's really good value to be had there. >> sam, what's the sector that's best set up for earnings season? >> well, i wouldn't really call it a particular sector but a kind of focus would really be on the higher quality issues. basically looking for those companies that have had good track records of raising earnings and dividends the reason i say that is because september 30th of last year, expectations were for fourth quarter earnings to be up 18%. the end of 2018, the expectations were 14%. now they are in the low 12% area so it seems as if a lot of people are ratcheting downward their estimates. and financials is an area that really has not seen much of a change, industrials as well

according to lindsay bell from cfra so my feeling is those two areas could show the biggest disappointment so i would look to those companies with good quality track records, s&p quality rankings, value side of the equation that have good investment outlooks. >> i just want to bring up oil prices, which are down a percent and a half right now such a tell. it feels like stocks and oil right now are connected at the hip. what's with that >> obviously oil can be a reflection of what investors think is the outlook for the global economy and with us being below $40 -- below $50 a barrel for the 2018 period, our expectation is we probably come up to about $55 for all of 2019, so a slight improvement, in a sense working our way through that supply/demand imbalance. because we still expect the u.s. economy to be higher, just a little slower than 2018. >> oil is up 18% this week.

>> but down today. >> but down right now. >> which is part of the reason why it's hard to see real impetus in equity markets today. guys, we'll leave it there thank you all very much. have a lovely weekend. shares of general motors getting a big boost today after the company said its 2018 earnings exceeded expectations phil lebeau sat down with mary barra. >> this is a bullish forecast from gm. also 2019. let's look at the raised guidance and what exactly general motors said. for 2018 the guidance was between 580 and 620. they're saying we're going to concede that the consensus was $6.28. and they also expect to exceed the free cash flow guidance of $4 billion for 2019, they're expecting to do much better than $6.50.

$6.50 to $7 is the range the consensus is $5.86 free cash flow between $4.5 and $6 billion no further plant closings are planned. there is an all-electric cadillac model that will come at some point cadillac the lead brand for evs. when it comes to autonomous vehicles, those plans are still continuing, though it's unclear whether or not we will see an autonomous ride share this year. here's mary barra. >> we're moving as fast as we can to really deploy driverless avs in a ride-sharing environment. that is our continued focus. as we do that, we will -- we will focus on what maximizes creating shareholder value so i'm not going to give a definitive answer because we're in a segment, an industry, a technology that has much to still evolve but we will do what maximizes shareholder value. >> take a look at shares of general motors getting a nice

pop again today, up more than 7% the question is, guys, do gm shareholders get to hang on to this and build from here remember when they had the softbank investment on autonomous vehicles last year, late in the third quarter i believe it was stock got a nice pop and people said here we go. general motors will start moving higher because of that valuation. overtime it gave it all pack and remained in that $33 to $36 trading range. let's see what happens the next few weeks. >> phil, i have a side question for you. is brexit potentially an opportunity for the u.s. automakers or just a headache for the european ones? >> tends to be more of a headache just for the european ones gm has already pulled out of europe ford is in the process of dramatically changing its footprint in europe. and then you've got obviously fiat chrysler being partially owned by a european automaker. they obviously have some issues to work out there. >> is this the beginning of the

end of bad news for the auto sector it feels like it's been layoffs and guidance cut and billion dollars on tariffs from steel and aluminum costs, drip, drip, drip does this turn the tide? >> i don't think it's the end of those types of stories, because, sara, i think we'll see that periodically here over the next six ponmonths to a year it's a plateaued market here in the united states. it's going to move slightly lower this year. china is going to be flat. we're in that hand-to-hand combat area where some automakers will do well in some areas and then lose in some areas. that's what we'll see at least the foreseeable future. >> phil, thanks so much. great having you with us here in the greater new york area over the last couple of days. still ahead on "the closing bell" the energy sector is on a tear this year, up 8% as crude prices have declined this year bank of america merrill lynch's francisco blanch joins us. and after the break, wall

street is getting bullish on netflix ahead of next week's earnings details behind the positive analyst's notes leading to a nice pop in the stock today. you can always reach out to the show on twitter, facebook, or sending us an e-mail. "the closing bell" will be back after a break. wn5.e,w is coming back her do 4 this is huntsville, alabama. aka, rocket city, usa. this is a very difficult job. failure is not an option. more than half of employees across the country bring financial stress to work. if you're stressed out financially at home, you're going to be too worried to be able to do a good job. i want to be able to offer all of the benefits that keep them satisfied. it is the people that is really the only asset that you have. put your employees on a path to financial wellness with prudential. bring your challenges.

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my name is tito, and i'm a tech-house manager at comcast. we're working to make things simple, easy and awesome. such a good song welcome back to "the closing bell." the dow is off the lows. it was down 203, it's now down 57 so potentially climbing back toward the end of the session. financials and staples, the biggest winner is pfizer, bi big'ebig biggest loser is walgreens and dupont. >> it's been a positive week. >> for the bulls. >> yes netflix getting a pop today after a number of bullish wall

street notes on the stock were released ahead of next week's earnings julia boorstin has the details in l.a. >> that's right, wilf. netflix shares gaining on wall street projections that the streaming giant's investment in content will deliver subscriber growth ubs upgrading the stock to buy saying the moat around its global positioning is widening raymond james upgrading it to strong buy pointing to the success of netflix' film "bird box. raymond james says there is meaningful potential for netflix to succeed in film and believes this should help in subscriber growth morgan stanley reiterating its overweight rating but lowering its price target to factor in lower long-term margins but saying netflix can thrive in the streaming market cvs shares inching up after the company said it sold 90% of its

super bowl ad inventory. it is expected to bring in ads at $2.5 million. they expect the game to attract 100 million. last year they drew 103 million viewers. one factor working in favor of cbs is regular season nfl ratings increased 5% back to you. >> julia, what about the other numbers we got of the rival streaming services and whether or not that sort of caused a bit of concern with netflix either executives or stockholders >> well, it's interesting because if you look at hulu, which this week announced that hulu now has 25 million subscribers for both its tv bundle, which is $40 a month, and its $8 on demand streaming service, hulu added 8 million

subscribers over the course of the year that's more than the 5.5 million subscribers netflix added in the u.s. this year so there are certainly a lot of questions that netflix' market in the u.s. is saturated, that we are just not going to see the same growth numbers from netflix in the u.s the question for netflix growthwise is internationally. there's so much more room for them to grow internationally we'll see what happens when disney launches disney plus and at&t launches its three-tiered streaming service this year because both of those will really be direct competitors to netflix. >> okay, julia >> i was just going to say it's been the biggest winner for faang since the rebound. >> big rebound julia, thank you 40 minutes to go here before the bell the dow is down 62 points. s&p 500 also trading lower russell just popped into positive territory so we're certainly off the worst levels of the session. still to come, bob lutz will be here to break down gm's big

announcement as that stock looks set to close with its best day since october. plus one of wall street firms says starbucks could soon face the same challenges that slammed apple stock last week. we'll explain after the break. ♪ saved you a seat.

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welcome back to "the closing bell." can the dow make it six positive sessions in a row? it looks more positive than it did an hour or two ago down just

a quarter of 1%. let's check in on individual market movers. blizzard cutting ties with the design and development partner bungee taking control over destiny game franchise it's trading down, activision, some 10% today. >> yeah. i guess it's all about the franchises the brands and the strength. they have candy crush but -- and "the wall street journal" with a note saying they did this before, getting costly franchises like guitar hero and have come back and investors seem disappointed today. goldman sachs downgraded starbucks to neutral from buy on china concerns and cut the price target to $68 a share from $75 that stock trading down about a percent and a half let's bring in kate rogers for more on the presence in china, kate, and whether investors should worry about this after that kind of warning from

goldman. >> hi. china is hugely important to starbucks. they open up a new store in china just about every 15 hours and in business there for 20 years. they have some 3,600 stores in china right now and the company wants to double that number in the next 4 years or so here's what the ceo kevin johnson had to say about china last month. >> over roughly 80% of the growth in china comes from new store units. both are important and right now china's all about establishing the brand through more points of presence in more cities. >> reporter: starbucks, of course, also has a partnership with alibaba and on demand food delivery available just about three months after its launch and that partnership helped to inform the company's opportunity here in the u.s. with uber eats back over to you guys. >> so, kate, i mean, starbucks executives relatively outspoken. we have seen kevin johnson a

bunch on cnbc. have they said anything about any of the weakness in china or the affect of the trade war? have they warned at all that they're feeling it >> reporter: not yet we'll hear from those executives when the company reports in two weeks and every time we asked them they've been excited about continuing to grow and the opportunities that china represents for them. kevin johnson has called this their second home market saying one day it will likely surpass the u.s. and be the company's biggest market so we haven't heard any warnings from them just yet obviously, goldman is concerned and cite apple and mcdonald's in that note when they did downgrade starbucks and said that those companies are seeing some weakness there in terms of what the consumer is looking for. we'll see what they have to say on earnings but don't seem concerned just yet johnson said we monitor in and not immune and not seeing it just yet. >> kate rogers, thank you very much for that. one thing to point out is a fundamental difference in terms

of point in the consumer that the two companies are aiming at. even if you think chinese gdt growth - >> apple versus starbucks? >> yeah, sorry a huge prospect for the average gdp per capita to grow and more people to join the middle class and then buy starbucks don't need to be in the top level of earnings for an apple iphone that's the bull case for the low end consumer type plays like starbucks expanding there and regardless of what gdp does and trade wars do. >> it's not uniformly bad to operate this china right now i keep citing nike they grew 30% in the market in the last quarter and haven't heard much in terms of a big slowdown there they said no affect from the u.s./china trade war and different companies affected different ways and why earnings season is going to be very interesting. >> certainly will. kicking off with the banks on monday. >> yes with you. >> we'll be focused on for sure.

right. we have just over 30 minutes, 33 minutes left of trade and seen improving sentiment toward the close. the russell down coming up, earnings season upon us big banks gear up to report next month. we'll preview the key names to watch ahead. after the break, crude oil still up double digits since the start of the year. we'll talk to the head of global commodities. find out how high crude can climb here alerts -- wouldn't you like one from the market

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♪ it's a beautiful day welcome back, everyone, to "the closing bell. >> a good song. >> a box of green there. that's consumer staples. brightspot in the session. holding up well in the selloff energy, utilities and materials hit the hardest. obviously following oil's decline. >> staples bottom is a reversal of the week to date trend, as well. >> some underperforming and the cyclical groups led us higher. could be a bullish sign going forward.

all higher within that staples group. time for a news update with sue herera hello. >> hi, guys. everyone, the house passing a bill guaranteeing back pay to federal workers missing paychecks beginning today. only seven representatives voted in opposition. all republicans. a similar bill passed the senate on thursday. meaning it will be forwarded to president trump to sign into law. >> that congress is saying and guaranteeing that workers will be paid not only for this shutdown but god forbid if we have any future ones that their pay will be guaranteed at a news conference today, an emotionally andy murray say it is 2019 australian open could be his final event as a professional tennis player as he contemplates retirement due to a long standing hip injury and you see he got there and left to compose himself

before returning a short time later. >> it's a chance of that for sure because, yeah, like i said, i'm not sure -- i'm not sure i'm able to play through the pain, you know, for another four or five months. >> it's a tough life lots of travel and training. that's the news update at this hour back downtown to you guys. >> i'm amazed and delighted how much coverage sir andy's potential retirement has got today in the states. i didn't know he had such a big following. >> a huge following here, absolutely huge. at the open, when it plays in august, everybody's rooting for him to get in. i mean, he is a great guy. i had the privilege of meeting him once and he is a great guy. >> yeah, he is i met him once briefly, as well. the plan do get through the australian 0 ep open to retire

womenible on the it would be great to make it to then. >> see you next hour. 27 minutes left of trade and down about a quarter of a percent at the moment. let's dive in to see what really is happening in the markets with 30 minutes left at the nyse bob pisani, let's start with you. >> what's happening here is running out of steam since wednesday, essentially we had been sideways, not surprising given the 10% move up, one of the o best starts in many, many years let's show you consumer staple stocks generally sat out a good part of the rallies so pfizer, merck, coke not doing much and many of the bank stocks starting monday with citigroup haven't really doing much and jpmorgan flat on the week big industrial names on some of trade hopes doing okay, boeing up for the week. caterpillar up for the week. visa, a stock everybody plays,

not banks but visa and mastercard doing well. finally, government shutdown, a number of different stocks that are sort of associated with potential impact of government shod hotels, marriotts, low income consumer stocks, dollar general, northrop grumman and american airlines. >> thank you bertha >> hi, sara. flat today and for the week small caps and mid caps have been the standout. both up better than 4.5% looking to extend their win streak for the week here to six straight winning sessions. bio tech helping out peeking into positive territory, could be nine straight days up for bio techs and chips are a standout up about 6% this week the best week since last summer and seeing a nice rotation back into some of these beaten down chip names welcome at the gains of this week micron, skyworks and nvidia

despite not so great outlook news for earnings season finally, the big standout this week, the contributor for impact, netflix. monster week up 13.7% it is poised to come out of bear market territory still 20% below its all-time high back to you. >> bertha, thank you very much for that. wti crude oil's recent rally taking a pause today after a nine-day run of gains, the longest higher since 2010. despite that, the oil price down 27% in the last 3 months joining us now to give us an outlook for energy, francisco blanch, head of derivatives research for merrill lynch what is your key explanation for why we have seen this bounce in oil prices over the last ten days or so >> hi, thanks for having me. well, let me just say that heading into the end of the

fourth quarter of last year we had the biggest rotation in spec positioning the oil market's ever seen. over the course of the last year, we saw excess of 1.1 billion barrels sold out of spec positions. the market was very, very oversold and, of course, on top of that, the fundamentals are starting to change and people are picking up on that the saudis are cutting supply from record level, 11.1 million barrels in november, bringing in production to 10.2 million barrels a day. the rest of the organization is going to join them and looking for a sizable reduction in supply coming from opec plus, of course, iran sanctions will tightening to a second half of the year and remember demand is not as bad as we feared it was three months ago or two months ago when people started to talk about recession. the word recession seems to be fading and eventually not just the saudi put on oil markets, on

the supply side kicked in, but also i think the powell put is starting to kick in, as well, with a friendlier fed commentary in recent days that's the combination of three factors. >> so, it sounds like you're bullish on the year, francisco despite the fact we have had this nine-day winning streak for oil prices i know you were bullish on the outset last year, too. and then oil had a massive plunge do you think it will recover this year? >> well, we were calling for $80 a barrel by the summer last year and we kind of got there we went above and beyond we hit $86 a barrel on brent this year, obviously, we are starting off a lower base and we think the supply and demand dynamics are constructive. we think we run up into the summer with factors and inventories are going to eventually rotate away from the big inventory build of the fourth quarter into inventory

declines and push up pleisseric. wti may struggle to the higher price brand and even if brent goes up to 70 we think wti maybe mid to high 50s should be the right range for wti this year and then heading into 2020 we are a little bit more concerned because then we'll have new pipelines and maybe more supply than the market needs. although, again, we need to see what producers do and if it's a final change in tune after many, many years of growth and we start to see a rotation towards higher dividends payouts for shareholders patiently waiting to get money back from their oil investments so that's the other thing that i think could support the market heading into year end 2020 but again, we do have a lot more capacity by next year. >> what is your take on the week's trip and meetings for

secretary pompeo in the middle east and the latest tensions there across the region and what impact they could have on oil prices in the next few months? >> well, i mean, i think pompeo's made it quite clear that the goal is to isolate iran obviously, one of the things that's surprised the market and a reason we came down so hard in the fourth quarter is because we had saudi arabia, emirates, russia and, of course, u.s. shale producers, all hitting record production levels in september, october, november and then, of course, heading into the big meeting on iran sanctions president trump decided to give a few more wavers than the market expected because prices were high now we'll see what happens but clearly the rhetoric is still quite hawkish and we would expect those sanctions to be tightened. those wavers to be curtailed in

half which effectively would provide support to the market. results in additional disruptions is hard to tell but also more turmoil in the middle east could eventually lead to less supply in the region. early to say and the most clear indication is iran will make -- will be having a lot more difficulties placing barrels in the market starting in may, june this year so that's another supportive factor here. >> francisco thank you for joining us much appreciated >> thank you. we have 20 minutes left to trade and we are lower by 31 points on the dow. it is pretty much at the highs of the day which was down 20 points and recovering nicely closing in on possibly 6 th higher day new red flags in the housing

market we'll dive into the data next. general motors forecasting a strong 2019. we'll talk to bob lutz after this break uh... uh... correct! you don't have to choose, 'cause, uh... oh! (vo) switch to the network awarded by rootmetrics and j.d. power. buy the latest galaxy phones, get galaxy s9 free.

♪ ♪ if only you could see what i see ♪ welcome back we are very close to session highs on the dow we are currently down 24 can the dow go positive? which would be a sixth positive session in a row and down 0.1% and up over 2% for the week as a whole. the government shutdown is blocking official housing data but diana 0 lick has a read. what can you tell us >> reporter: sales of newly built homes fell 18% in december compared with december of 2017 and that's according to john burns real estate consulting surveying hundreds of builders monthly and sales down a steep 19% annually in november sales were actually particularly bad in northern california down 40% and down 49% in southern california now, most blame this on the jump in mortgage rates we saw last fall rates did drop back slightly in december and the chairman of

lenar told us this week that that drop helped bring buyer interest back and john burns said that didn't translate into actual sales. >> we saw traffic seasonally adjusted flat. i'm expecting lower rates to help but it's really not causing a significant recovery >> reporter: burns also saw k s cancelation rates jump and that may be because of the plunge in the stock market at the end of the year f. you want to see how much worse affordability is in your region, we have a great interactive map up right now on cnbc.com back to you guys. >> diana, the home builders have been acting pretty well in the market what's your take were they completely oversold after a rough year >> reporter: that's exactly it no it was really that the home

builders were so beat up last year trading so low that there was really nowhere to go but up and got a boost and also when you do see mortgage rates pull back, they're very sensitive to mortgage rates, even small rate moves and when the rates dropped they reacted well to that. as for sales, though, it is not much better looking forward. >> got it. good thing we have you if we don't have the data in the shutdown diana, thank you. >> and the map just checking it out i love a good interactive map. >> yes. >> check it out. we have less than 15 minutes to go before the closing bell. show you where we stand. we have seen a nice recovery really since the top of the hour dow down 22. russell is positive. it's been outperforming all week on the small caps. nasdaq down 0.2%. meantime activist investors making big bets on casinos we have the details for you coming next. ys wants to hang ou.

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state and local officials on border security saying the national emergency is the easy way out. >> the easy solution is for me to call a national emergency i could do that very quickly i have the absolute right to do it but i'm not going to do it so fast because this is something congress should do and we're waiting for the democrats to vote. >> now, the president also acknowledged the move would likely be challenged in court, possibly head all the way to the supreme court. now, over on capitol hill, there's been a lot of chatter about where the money would come from if the president did declare a national emergency lawmakers saying the white house is moving away from unused disaster money for that but no other pot of money made itself readily available so far one thing the president did say he would do in that roundtable is sign a bill that was passed by the house today, passed by the senate yesterday to ensure that federal workers would receive back pay when the shutdown ends whenever that date may be

back over to you guys. >> ylan, i think you said earlier we're in shutdown meltdown phase at the moment have you got a word ready next week if it gets worse? >> i don't know. wilf, i have to think about it over the weekend maybe they'll have a solution by then. >> let's hope that they do ylan, thank you very much. meantime, ceasar's jumping on a report that icahn is taking a stake. hi, leslie. >> hey, wilf sounds like what happens in vegas caught the attention of wall street. carl icahn taking an interest in the gaming interest. david farber saying there's a stake in caesars and that news a day after reports surfaced that starboard value, the hedge fund led by jeff smith srks building a stake in mgm resorts cnbc has not independently

confirmed the moves but why are activists so enthralled by casinos all of a sudden? they look for turnaround strategies at cheap prices and plenty in that industry. caesars shares plummeting 46% last year. mgm slumping 28% activists like to pounce in times of uncertainty that gives them a better chance to advise on a change in strategy that includes management turnover caesars announced that the ceo frissora stepping down and left from hertz four years ago shortly after icahn disclosed a stake in that xen. but it's worth noting that gaming much like banking can be a difficult sector for activists, especially looking to take a significant stake due to regulatory purposes. if the nevada gaming commission which oversees vegas casinos believes an ownership inconsistent with public policies and the state of nevada that shareholder may be

investigated and subject to a sustainability hearing, guys. >> not just activists, leslie. short sellers, as well remember a few weeks ago james chanos told us on this show shorting sands and wynn because of the macau gaming licenses being up and it's ripe with activity right now i guess because of the performance? >> exactly and clearly controversial because chanos betting on the declines, these activist investors are betting on the rebound and interesting to see in 2019 who comes out on top there's a lot of debate over the sector, especially relating to properties in asia, especially as it relates to the emergence as a difficult 2018 and then, of course, just consolidation in the industry as a whole. we heard tillman for tito rumored to be eyeing caesars last year for a buyout and all of that should shake out in 2019 and why we see hedge funds

getting in the fray. >> yeah. >> leslie, thank you very much for this. >> sports gambling is another sort of big picture issue that could affect some of these performances. >> also to the point of the short, december 13 he was on saying - >> stocks are up since then. >> on that same interview, he said he was long the pure chinese macaw names and doesn't think the u.s. -- those of u.s. operators don't get the licenses extended just checking on galaxy entertainment. since december 13th, basically flat so he's lost on the u.s. short not gained on the chinese operators long so that trade hasn't worked since december 13. up next, coming back with the closing countdown. we have got 5:30 left to trade. after the bell, bob lutz will weigh in on how the china trade fight could impact the auto sector. gm movinup b tayg igod "closing bell" will be right back

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don't get mad. get e*trade, dawg. welcome back to "closing bell." we have just over two minutes left to trade. the dow down 23 points that's pretty much the high of the session. down 0.1% doesn't look like it will quite have the sixth positive session in a row and nonetheless we have significantly improved in the

afternoon. near the session highs and the s&p and nasdaq similar russell's just positive. look at the s&p 500, though, for the week as a whole because it's been a positive week and up over 2% of all three of the major indices. s&p for the week as a whole up 2.5% there are the sector performances for the week and as you can see industrials leads the group. consumer discretionary up there. technology up there. goods, cyclical runs for the week utilities at the bottom. today sector performance is almost a reverse of that but the week as a whole is important to look at and encouraging. quickly with bob pisani. oil this week strong slightly flat or down today. that's, of course, why energy's done well for the week as a whole and u.s. dollar for the week in general has been strong but is a little bit flat today. >> imagine, imagine being an energy analyst you cut all of the estimates for

energy stocks in 2019. oil is at $42 and very little growth in 2019 and all of a sudden oil rallies to $53. energy stocks rally and all of a sudden the numbers will have to go up. it is impossible to model earnings estimates for energy stock these days imagine being a bank analyst you are reporting monday citigroup. imagine doing this all of the big banks, citigroups, bank of america, all having estimates go up into the fourth quarter of last year. all the smart money saw this all the smart money -- and they got killed guys that follow the fundamentals say what the heck we did everything right and got our head handed to us. i know you want to make a point. why not just buy paypal, visa, mast mastercard that's the feeling.

>> banks have been the key player of whether people fear a recession or not maybe this quarter they focus back on the earnings and valuations the financials with a decent day today. overall the cyclicals, best for the week at the close, the dow only down 9 points might it go positive right at the close? not quite. down around 9 or 8 points. the s&p is also down about two basis points that does it for the first hour of "closing bell." sara, back to you. almost went positive just in the last few seconds there. welcome, everyone. happy friday, to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen wilfred frost rejoining me in a moment and mike santoli. take a look at how we finished up the day on wall street. big comeback, actually throughout the session the dow down 203 at the low. came all the way back to the

flat line and thought we were going do go positive and then the s&p closes, as wilfred would say, bang-on flat. nasdaq down and russell 2000 did close up in positive territory for the week as a whole. the s&p 500 eked out a gain of 2.5% the russell almost doubled that. interesting dynamic there. general motors, story of the day. top s&p 500 performer after the automaker gave a strong outlook for the year gave investors a lot to cheer about. we'll get reaction from former gm vice chair bob lutz here's the stories on the radar for investors today. concerns over the government shutdown and china's economy weighing on the market earlier in the session but we did see that comeback in the last hour of trading earnings season kicking into high gear next week. we'll look at what impact those reports could have on the market netflix outperforming after a pair of big upgrades ahead of

the earnings and a nice pop for that stock joining us, barry math is here, director of research at ironsides. let's get your take on this pretty strong comeback, especially into the close. >> yeah. that's it for the day a tie goes to the bulls right? because it was a bit of a comeback pretty inconsequential and the market was set up for a breather everyone looking at the levels saying it makes all the sense in the world. they hung in there volatility continues to bleed out. of the market. it's sort of feels as if for the past several days that, look, people came into the year not owning enough stocks, not being exposed enough if the market runs higher because they got sold out in december how many people came on our air and said we like the fundamentals we think next year is okay and let the market settle down well, you won't catch the first part of a rally waiting for it to settle down now people want to participate. >> the other thing the market

shrugged off today is oil prices which declined but the market did improve intraday even though oil prices slightly worsened. is that encouraging? >> i would say, yeah obviously not a perfect lockstep correlation and i wouldn't make too much of it but it is showing you that there is demand for stocks as stocks for now as opposed to just kind of trading the entire asset class board in the same way. >> barry, welcome. good do see you. >> thank you. >> did the fed take the volatility out of the market >> i wouldn't go so far as that. i think the broader issue around the fed is -- and it is not just the fed. it is the fed, the ecb and the boj and the big dynamic there and written about a lot is in 2017, the sum total of the three of them bought $2 trillion of

securities in 2018, they actually sold $200 billion. that drop in demand of 2.2 trillion really culminated in the september/october time frame. you saw it when real interest rates, ten-year rates moved up sharply in september and reverberated out that settles down quite a bit getting into 2019 and i think, you know, the market is starting to come to the realization that, yeah, okay, we lost demand for securities and spreads widened but not that much and the sequencing is important, too the fact that equities fell before credit spreads widened tells you it wasn't about macro economic conditions but central bank driven liquidity withdrawn from the system so the fed rhetoric is important for them to understand this dynamic is important but the liquidity, overall, the dynamic tantamount to stabilization. >> to your point, we discussed

briefly on "squawk box," as well this morning, this doesn't solve the issue of tightening or loosening. if it needs to loosen it's because the fundamentals got so much worse and puts the fed as an excuse on a couple of months. >> i think it sidelines the possibility that the fed is going to be dogmatic and on its own clock and not pay attention to markets and i think right now a pause fits with basically everybody's assumption how long a pause, if the market right now at least for the moment is pricing in a greater chance of a fed cut than a hike, well, i'm not sure we love the circumstances under which the fed to do that very soon but for now i think we can live with it, especially because, by the way, the s&p up 10%, still down from where it was in september and in the zone where not so bad can be okay for stocks holding this level. >> we should add in the inflation number in the conversation we got cpi down yes, energy, core up a little bit and didn't signal big price

pressures to lead the fed to keep hiking rates. >> that's right. >> are you a buyer of stocks >> i am. absolutely and i think this is going to be a pretty favorable year. the inflation story's fascinating because if you just consider the correlation of the various components of inflation, the volatility of it, it looks like the '60s and the '90s these are periods of strong capital investment, high equity market valuations and supposed to target price stability and does appear that some of the things that they were talking about with kelly, for example, today those factors are clearly suppressing prices and the fed does not need to worry about that at present so a six-month pause is a great set-up. >> on the international data not suggesting the other central banks to rush to tighten either. >> no. i think it's international synchronized pause right now. >> the ecb doesn't get the heat as the fed gets and planning to

exit their massive stimulus program and the data is turning worse. >> you could see it through ucb. european stocks in the year, massively underperforming and they were struggling as they went through their effective taper tantrum. >> i don't know how much they're planning that, sara. they said qe could be a tool to be used ever more and i think it's a feeler. >> that's right. they have to change the tune. >> yeah. >> when they do end negative rate policy, right almost like when we stop the asset purchases and then more than a year before we actually ended zero rates so -- probably where they're at and not do anything next year. >> yeah. let's switch focus of macro to micro. investors will be looking for any mention of the macro issues that we have been discussing such as trade and the government shutdown what impacts will earnings have on markets mike, i guess all of this comes together to suggest that

actually earnings could be the key factor for stock prices in a way they weren't last quarter. >> right last quarter, i think after three quarters of 20% growth there's a premise to be fine and so people were sensitive to a sign of deceleration the estimates come down a fair bit and that usually is a pretty good set-up in terms of how the numbers are received once they're reported the market's up a lot in three weeks so i think it could be back and forth in terms of how company by company, sector by company it factors through and i don't think the bar is particularly high for people being satisfied this quarter things look okay look we might be -- we don't have a lot of cushion in the first quarter. i think 4% is the earnings slash. that's stall speed for earnings. >> just to put the rally in perspective, yes 2% up week, up

10% from the christmas eve lows. did s&p down 12% from the recent highs. barry, where do you like the set-up for earnings? >> i think financials in particular this is a tough sector for me. i was negative my entire time as barclays equities strategist negative until the treasury reform proposal and started to unwind repression and looked like in 1960 with a similar dynamic and as we have started to change the asset mix in the banks from government securities which happened dramatically over the last year toward private sector lending, commercial lending is soaring right now as you change that asset mix, the profitability of the banks goes up without adding any leverage to them so regional banks in particular i think the set-up is really strong. that would be one. i also thought that the numbers were really marked down on the tech sector in particular.

2% revenue growth seems really tepid. >> to come back do the banks and in particular not just the loan -- >> one of your favorites. >> my absolute favorite. not just the loan growth but credit quality if those numbers come in not fantastic but solid that kind of starts to change the nairtive that a recession is close and do you think the banks are well set up for that? >> i do, i do. and i mean, this asset mix dynamics is huge a year ago securities holdings were growing by 6% they're now shrinking by a percent or so. commercial and industrial lending growing by 10% this asset mix is a big deal and no evidence that there be any sign of credit deterioration no leverage in the system. it is just a bit of a washout and overreaction to that market decline i think. >> barry, you mentioned tech potentially could look cheap ahead of earnings. netflix we should mention with

4% today, double dose of upgrades cited subscriber momentum. the film and content strategy helping to pave the way to profitability. i think that was the key what is it netflix to the moon? this stock held up relatively well despite the market selloff. it's come back strong. >> largely a psychological tael. it's never really mattered how it's been valued so i think if you're an analyst you can say, look, story is intact tacking to more bottom line profits and mostly a risk appetite gauge and the story didn't change. a linear membership growth, heavy spend on content dominating eyeballs. it is not as if you have to make a big, bold leap i also think people are very gun shy about facebook, to a lesser extent of alphabet with concerns

of privacy or advertising. so netflix and amazon are the ones where the customers buy the product an they know they buy the product and seemed like they're liked by the customers and why to me it's more about wherever the market wants it to trade to head toward. >> thinking about a netflix clearly one aspect is that as threats come, huely and disney with its own product and the support is pricing power which they tested once last year didn't hit them at all have they have room to hike that >> i would think that, you know, broadly these companies that are disruptive like that that have really changed the process, delivery process, there's no evidence that that's deteriorating at all in fact, the whole productivity dynamic is one of the big potential reasons why or one of the big reasons why i'm as favorably disposed to the market as i am. productivity accelerated take a netflix in the delivery

of content or the amazon and the delivery of stuff. it is really changed the entire productivity dynamic. >> netflix, that raymond james target to 450. ubs to 410 both significantly higher. >> another big gainer today, gm. it was up 7% ceo mary barra saying he's optd mystic about this year. >> it was not only a focus on really, you know, capitalizing on the new truck that is we have out there, the light duty and the focus on cost reduction so it was an across the board every element of the company we have a very strong product portfolio in the u.s. market and coming in china. so when we look at that, that is going to help fuel our 2019 and supports our guidance. >> mike, sara asked phil earlier whether the bad news passed for

the autos. i guess the u.s. numbers are still kind of pretty narrow peak and not like that's a long-term bull market again. >> hovering below a peak the market is reluctant to pay up for even good news on the earnings front in terms of guidance for gm. stock not back to the beginning of december with the nice move today so i still think it's a sector where people have late cycle concerns that are going to be with us for a while and even gm saying, you know, north american sales hovering just below their all-time highs and still makes people wonder about the longer term profitability. peak when's the next cycle look like? what are we planning for it's not necessarily the regular downturn and recovery of traditional autos. >> what are the auto stocks telling us >> yeah. the credit cycle story is fascinating this business cycle because if you think about autos and the way autos are financed,

the auto asset back recover ri market opened almost immediately after the crash and then expanding from early 2010. you didn't have credit card related credit expand until 2012 and mortgage related credit still isn't really expanding so people look at the business cycles saying auto peaked. th that's the end of the cycle. mike had a great point which is the next business cycle for auto from internal combustion engines to evs blows that whole cycle analysis out of the water so i love the reports of never different this time but in this sector and the way to think about this credit cycle, it is different this go around. >> really quickly, barry, talk about small caps i mentioned the outperformance up six days in a row that's did best winning streak since last may up almost 5% from the week is it because they were such underperformers last year or a

fundamental reason to be there right now? >> there's a real story going on underneath you can see it in labor market turnover you can see it in all the small cap surveys and last -- earlier this week, the survey barely backed off with a big potential confidence shock out there from the decline in the markets it barely moved. there's a dynamism going on that underlies these companies and i think that underlying fundamentals are much better than the market gives them credit for. >> something to keep going >> i do. >> okay. great do see you thank you for joining us. >> thanks. up next on the show, we'll tell you what to expect from next week's wave of bank earnings and hear from one top analyst of whether you should bet on the sector and if so where. general electric is one of the best performers in the s&p 500 so far this year we have a debate on etwhher the stock can keep rallying here on "closing bell.

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improve in 2018. but all of them saw significant share price declines despite that fact. jpmorgan was the best performer, down only 9% but most declined a lot more than 20%. and it wasn't just earnings growth that did nothing for share prices earnings beating consensus also failed to deliver. here's bank of america who beat estimates every single quarter last year and as you can see the share price didn't really respond positively not for long at least. but might this quarter be different? banks are certainly cheaper. bank of america's here declined steadily last year and applied to the whole market and here's bank of america pe real dif to the s&p 500 average started the year at 80%. today at 63% of the market average. so next week a small beat could help the share prices and what should we watch for? credit quality tops the list

are there signs that the market worsened significantly trading a good sign of volatility third, net interest margins. there will be some movement in that probably. >> and they are expected to be positive overall i mean - >> what are we expecting from the outlooks >> the outlook is important, as well i think the point being here is that last year we did see decent outlooks and the share prices steadily declined and priced pretty attractively at the moment. >> which ones do you want to buy ahead of next week's earnings? let's bring in gerard cassidy. what do you expect in terms of trading and loan growth from the banks? how are they going to look >> i think what you are going to see, sara, on the trading froptd the numbers are not going to be very good. the management given guidance in december pointing out that

trading rev lues are going to be down year over year and doesn't even include the late december volatility so i think what we should expect is on the congressional markets trading front numbers not very positive however, to your point about loans, fourth quarter we saw a real pickup in loan growth for the banking industry partly due to the fact that the capital markets area was not very conducive to raising capital. you might recall that in the month of december where there wasn't a single high yield debt issue completed and therefore there was a re-mediation into the banks. commercial loan growth should be very strong when they announce the numbers next week and on the margin we see flat to slightly up margins. >> jared, given that, do you think the money centers attractively priced coming into the earnings season? which names in particular? >> i think we might be better off in the regionals because on

the money centers, similar to the two investment banks, morgan stanley and goldman sachs we don't how much the weakness in capital markets is priced into the stocks and we'll find out on monday, of course. that's when citigroup announces the numbers. you don't have that risk in the regionals. b bb&t is a good example out of north carolina should have good commercial loan growth same thing with key corp. and pnc. if you wanted to stick there, bank of america and citi are the names to own going into next week. >> gerard, kind of can guess maybe where you're at on this but i'm curious where you think big institutions are positioned. a year ago it seemed like the consensus choice for an outperformer been disappointing would people be surprised and rush to own the stocks if the

numbers were good? >> i think you are on to something. i came back from a week of toronto visiting institutional investors. clearly there's caution up there about the american banks i think many investors are on the sidelines. i think wilfred put his thumb on it giving you the relative pe a moment ago this time last year at 80% of the pe and now below 70. the price is attractive. people got burned late in the year and hesitant to jump in but if history is any guide, if the federal reserve finished raising rates this year that's very positive for the banks at this point in the cycle and in years past when they have stopped raising rates in the '95, '96 tightening cycle the bank stocks were the place to be and i think that's the case this year. >> what is the rating on goldman sachs overall and the first time hearing from david solomon on a

call and crucial to hear from him for various reasons. what do you want to hear him say specifically >> i think it's an interesting call obviously we all want to know about the fundamentals of the business, not just for goldman but the others and unfortunately as we all know they have the issue with the my lazian solvent wealth fund and i know they won't give us much detail with the ongoing investigations and people are looking for reassurances that it's not more widespread than this issue with the sovereign wealth fund in malaysia hopefully they'll be able to give us reassurances that it's not widespread and that will, you know, help the stock but that, urge, is a cloud that is overhanging the stock. there's not only, you know, the department of justice investigations but you have the bank regulators. the federal reserve and others are investigating and we have to wait and see what's going to happen as a result of those investigations >> gerard, thank you for joining

us great to catch up. >> you're very welcome thank you. shares of high-end cooler maker yeti getting a pop after hours. >> that is right yeti holdings specializes in outdoor products, best known for mugs and coolers raising the fiscal 2018 guidance operating income as a percentage of net sales expected 12.9% to 13.1% compared to 10% last year. so perhaps underscoring this idea that activities and experiences are coming back in vogue. the stock is up 6% it does have a market cap of around $1.6 billion. back to you guys. >> all right we haven't been getting a lot of guidance raises. >> more to come. >> thank you very much we have the ceo of the company on the show next week. >> hard to be negative on the u.s. consumer if the company raising guidance it is expensive stuff there. there are cheaper versions. >> it's niche. >> it is

of course. not making a big call on the consumer. >> keeps the beverages cold and warm. >> it's a tailgating play basically. >> and hiking and outdoor activities anyway -- yeti soaring here after hours. >> ask the ceo next week. still to come, gm shares revving higher after raising profit guidance. former gm vice chairman bob lutz tells us whether the ongoing trade dispute with china could slam the brakes on that stock. consumers could raise the credit score giving away personal investigatiformation. we'll discuss whether that's worth the tradeoff later on "closing bell. what's the hesitation? eh, it just feels too complicated, you know? well sure, at first, but jj can help you with that. jj, will you break it down for this gentleman? hey, ian. you know, at td ameritrade, we can walk you through your options trades step by step until you're comfortable.

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welcome back let's take a look at how we finished the day on wall street. dow very close to a positive that was the high of the session down two basis points or six points s&p also just below the flat line nasdaq down .2% and russell a good return. time now for cnbc news update with sue herera. >> hello again, sara here's what's happening at this hour, earn. the national air traffic controllers union filing a lawsuit for their workers not paid the suit alleges the government

unlawfully deprived the members of the earned wages without due process. justice route bader ginsburg needs no further treatment to remove cancerous growths from the lungs. she missed oral arguments this week a first since joining the supreme court in 1993. she relied on written briefs and transcripts and will continue to do next week. canadian prime minister trudeau says canada accepted the u.n.'s request to grant asylum to saudi runaway teen al qunun the 18-year-old was fleeing her allegedly abusive family in saudi arabia. >> the u.n.h.c.r. made a request of canada that we accept ms. alqunun as a refugee and we accepted the request that we grant her asylum you are up to date that's the news update this hour guys, back downtown to you. >> have a great weekend, sue thank you. >> you, too.

shares of general motors closing 7% higher today after giving a strong earnings forecast for 2019 saying it expects to surpass the 2019 earnings expectations. >> mary barra discussed steps to increase the stock's value for shareholders >> we're going to work and continue to demonstrate we are investing in the future. looking at the ev technology and the av technology and what we have accomplished in cruze and going about aon the mouse vehicles, everything is integrated and focused on safety the speed of it ration there's a lot to be excited about at general motors. we'll focus on the future and the right things and i think it will be recognized. >> joining us now to discuss more on this, bob lutz, former gm vice chairman and ceo of vlf automotive very good afternoon. >> good to be here. >> good jump in the stock price today, bob

do you think this is structural change in direction for the stock having done various restructuring things or a short-term cyclical bounce >> it is hard to predict what the stock will do but as far as general motors is concerned they're always very cautious in the forward looking statements and if they say that they're going to exceed 2018 earnings in 2019 it means that they see the way clear to doing that. so i have every expectation that general motors will continue to beat earnings targets. >> what is that based on, bob, as far as you can tell restructuring, the new product lineup. >> yeah. >> what's gone right for them right now? >> this is the result of about the last three years of making unpopular and controversial decisions like getting out of india which has a long-term future but the long term never seems to come. the same with russia

the same with europe which was generating massive losses for decades. so a lot of the way you improve earnings is cutting out losing operations and then there wasa lot of flack recently about closing passenger car plants but that's the right thing to do because passenger cars by and large unless you're at the high end of the market passenger cars are loss generators even in good times. so de-emphasize passenger cars which -- for which there's vastly reduced demand now and concentrate on crossovers and general motors has a lot of new crossovers coming, predominantly in cadillac which is somewhat short of them and about to launch the full sized sport utilities so the product pipeline is full it is fresh. it's all in the right part of the market and unless we have some sort of

economic armageddon either here or in china which i don't think anybody expects i think the company is exceptionally profitable right now and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future. >> bob, we were talking about the longer term picture, once w whatever that looks like and how a company like gm should be laying the bets. do you think gm has that sorted out right now? >> yeah. >> the amount to invest? >> more than any other car company i know everybody else is in the catch-up mode but gm has been working on autonomous. remember the first ev in the united states was produced by gm the first plug-in hybrid was produced by gm so there's a lot of expertise on evs and in the area of autonomous vehicles, general motors has better technology

thanks to its part shl ownership of cruze automation and invested in what's pretty well considered to be the premiere mapping company in the world right now which is usher doing the digital high precision digital maps that are embedded in the vehicle which is an essential component in the autonomous vehicle future so i think mary barra wasn't exaggerating saying that it's all integrated and in-house and will gm continue to work with smaller specialized companies that have a bit of technology here bit of technology there? sure burr the main thing is, general motors sees the autonomous and electrification future coming and they have got the cash and the wherewithal to be a big player. >> bob, i mean, this is obviously cold comfort those affected by the plant closings announced in ohio and michigan they received a lot of political

pressure locally from president trump. >> right. >> has that passed by? the president threatened to take away subsidies for general motors how will they deal with that that has to be part of the story of why the guidance raised. >> well, i don't know what subsidies general motors gets. general motors gets the electric vehicle subsidies like everybody else but really nothing else that could be taken away unilaterally nobody likes plant closings. but it's just a necessary fact of life in the automobile business that plants get old, plants get worn out. plants are producing vehicles no longer in demand and when that vehicle goes away, unfortunately, the plant has to go away. it's sad its's the downside of a market economy. but if you don't do it companies die and nobody benefits from that either. >> bob, thank you for joining us we appreciate it bob lutz, former gm vice

chairman. >> okay. when we come back, we are going to debate whether ge's big rally this year has staying power. for your heart... your joints... or your digestion... so why wouldn't you take something for the most important part of you... your brain. with an ingredient originally discovered in jellyfish, prevagen has been shown in clinical trials to improve short-term memory. prevagen. healthier brain. better life.

ge has enjoyed a buying flurry at the start of this year and while it traded flat today the stock is attracting some bulls. up next, the debate on whether it can continue. a new program that could boost your credisct ore but requires more personal information to be given away the details coming up.

general electric shares on a

tear in the past month, up more than 30% joining us to discuss whether the rally to last, howard mason and bullish and joining us graham copley from ssr who sees red flags for the stock. good afternoon to you both howard, you're more of a sort of financials balance sheet analyst and that's why you like ge particularly because you think people got too concerned about the risk of its cash flows, balance sheet failing. >> yes that's right, wilfred. good afternoon thank you for having me on the show as you say, i'm a financials analysts and looked at ge capital, the subsidiary. while ge capital certainly does require additional capital and likely has a negative valuation, we think investors are overdiscounting the risks and to support that i'll note that "wall street journal" article a day or two ago talking about the need to raise $25 billion of equity by issuing new stock in

ge and when we look at that number we think it's unrealistically large. we think that the equity that is needed is less than half of that number and it can be raised through the existing plan that ge has to separate ge health care and in particular to do an ipo of a portion of the ge health care business somewhere between 20% and 50% and that ipo could raise up to $17 billion and would be more than enough to meet the capital needs of ge capital and the firm more generally and i think once that deal gets done, investor concerns of capital will decline and the stock will trade much more healthily. >> graham, you are skeptical and ge capital in your eyes is one of the red flags. >> yes it is a little unfair putting me up against howard who's a close friend and one of the smartest analysts i have worked with. if he has something to say about

ge capital i actually want to read it but it is one of my concerns because it is something that the new ceo has not spoken about. he's spoken in details of other businesses there's this rumor that they're selling g-cast for a large sum of money to shore up the balance sheet. there's no doubt that there is bears and bulls on the subject of ge capital. but i sort of refer to it as the donald rumsfeld stock at this point. it is the unknown unknowns to trip us up here with ge. and i wouldn't be surprised if there are another couple of bad news, not necessarily related to ge capital before the deck is completely cleared and, you know, the stock has improved as the year's gone on part of that's because there's a lot of i think heavy tax loss selling at the end of last year and seen a rebound of that and until the company talks about ge

capital, you know, perhaps c confirming how it's viewed i think the uncertainty will remain. >> howard, if the balance sheet is a manageable issue as you lay out there, what's the next step to arrive at a sum of the parts valuation for the company whether the various pieces are held or sold or otherwise di vested >> there are two, of course, uncertainties around ge. the first is how big the hole of the capital is at ge capital they said they'll put in 3 billion in 2019 and i think closer to 5 billion. and it's likely that there are tail liabilities associated with the long-term care insurance book so that's one source of uncertainty. and of course, thesecond sourc of uncertainty is what a normalized free cash flow for the business looks like and there's headwinds with the shift in the energy mix from gas to

renewables but there are also some shorter term issues i think ge probably brought forward a little bit of earnings in the power business as it tried to meet some overly aggressive eps estimates and i think we are in the lee of that causing the numbers to be suppressed given those two sources of uncertainty what we need from ge is guidance and, of course, the new ceo has acknowledged the importance of providing guidance has said that he will provide guidance but when he last spoke to investors it was just not the time to do it. so i think we'll see some guidance if not when ge reports the end of january than by the end of the first or second quarter and that is as the point of which investors can start to get more comfortable with some of the parts valuations and earnings based valuations. >> we'll leave it there. thank you very much. >> thank you. up next, a new program that ehae r uratur credit score and inxcngfoyo da.

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welcome back if you want to borrow money, you need good credit ratings one company will help boost your score but there's a catch. you have to give away more of your information. >> think of it as the credit catch-22 in order to borrow money you need a good credit score to get a high number, you need to show a good history experion has a program where if you're willing to share more information, you may see an immediate increase to your credit score

consumers allow them to access their bank account and track utility or phone payments. that data is added to their credit file and then they get an updated score. scores rose for two out of three consumers participating in its pilot phase and 10% of those with a so-called thin file had enough credit history to be given a score for the first time there's another program expected to be rolled out this summer called ultra fico, a partners p partnership. consumers must opt in to allow access to their savings and checking accounts. their balances will be monitored to see how they manage cash flow and pay their bills and this data will calculate a new and possibly higher ultra fico score. that's good news for many who will be able to draw from a larger pool of potential borrowers. >> one word, equifax doesn't this open them up to hacks and stolen data?

>> that's the biggest risk, that you're sharing more of your personal information the other big risk, though, is that many people who are in this gray area of credit scores, the scores can range between 300 and 850. if you're in the high 500s and low 600s, you're in a gray area. you want to get into that good score around 700, this is a way to bump you up what if you don't manage your money well and can't afford to take the credit, even though you might get the loan, can you really afford it so does it really make sense. >> that's not the best timing to try to give up people to give up more of that data either. >> not with all the security issues. >> but it is giving them a greater sense of -- first i thought they were going to sell the data this is just to give them a fuller picture. >> just to give them a fuller picture and get people to realize what goes into your credit score you have to pay your bills on time this is one way to see what

you're doing with your bank accounts to see how you're managing your savings and all that now some credit companies will do that and that potentially boost your score, particularly if you're a new consumer trying to get credit. you're a millenial, this is your first job, you don't have much credit history, here's a way to show i pay my bills on time, my cell phone bill i do it the right time every time and now you're slowly building your credit history. >> but you're expecting it to be popular? >> it may be. >> interesting big earnings reports and a crucial brexit vote. we'll tell you the events to watch next week after this quick break. oh, wow. you two are going to have such a great trip. thanks to you, we will. this is why voya helps reach today's goals... all while helping you to and through retirement. can you help with these? we're more of the plan, invest and protect kind of help... voya. helping you to and through retirement. ♪ ♪

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welcome back let's check in on the key economic data and earnings points next week monday brings earnings from citigroup. tuesday gets the december producer price index and earnings from wells fargo, united, continental and delta. >> wednesday it's retail sales

black rock, bank of america, goldman sachs and csx earnings thursday, jobless claims and earnings from netflix, morgan stanley and american express it's going to be a huge week and we've got another big story to drill down on for next week. the brexit parliament vote this time it's going to happen >> we think so we think it's going to happen. it's going to happen on tuesday. that delayed critical vote will take place on theresa may's brexit deal. the math appears very, very hard for her. she will lose, she'll lose comfortably. what will happen next? two developments this past week of note. the first is that mps voted in favor of an amendment against theresa may's wishes to force her to return with another plan within three days if she loses the vote essentially this tilts the

balance of power towards mps and lowers the chance of a no-deal hard brexit. second, the leader of the oppositi opposition, jeremy koecorbyn ma clear that his primary aim is not a second referendum. >> we will move no confidence in the government at a time of our choosing when we judge the best chance would be success in doing that because we do not have confidence in this government and we honestly believe that the best way forward is a general election the only way out of it would be a general election the people could decide which mps they wanted, which party they wanted to be in government and what the priorities of that government would be. >> theresa may survived a vote of confidence from her own mps in december but she could face one from the entire house of commons which would be a straight up majority vote of 650 mps. the pound has had a decent week but it remains very near six

month, two-year lows. >> but also could be vulnerable if something goes wrong. so with bank earnings and brexit, you're taking the week off? >> yeah, i'm going on vacation, back to the caribbean. mike, quick final takeaways. >> we're going to be looking at companies. the market is still at that level where it makes sense to slow down. >> that does it for "closing bell." thanks for watching. >> have a good weekend "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking times square, i'm melissa lee. tonight on "fast," netflix nirvana. wall street bingeing on the stock. it is surging, up more than 40%. will the euphoria continue after its earnings report? plus, the death cross rearing its head this time on the 10-year yield. we'll tell you what it could mean for the bond market. we start off with the tale of two markets as we sit here on the eve of earnings, it's been the