you are hours away a make or braem brexit vote. theresa may's plan to leave the e.u. or will she have to leave as prime minister? we will take you live to the u.k. the lights may be on in the kus capitol, but a large part of d.c. remains in the dark as the government shutdown enters its 25th day there are burgers. as for your money, wall street looks like solidly in the green after markets posts their first back to back losses in 2019.

as worldwide exchange begins right now. ♪ good morning good afternoon good evening from wherever in the world that you may be watching, i'm brian sullivan brexit shutdowns and fillet-o-fish sandwiches at the white house topping the news here's how the markets are shaping up stock futures are up, and they have come down remember, at this time of day there's not many futures contracts traded we give you the numbers because we have to, but they are prone to wild swings because when you don't have a lot of volume, one or two big trades can really shift the way that looks we were up triple digits just about ten minutes ago. dow futures now up 56. we're going to watch that closely. meantime, asian marks getting to

lift overnight reports that china could roll out more stimulus measures to try to ward off a slowdown in growth in their economy. the chinese market up 1.36%. japan continues its nice start to the year. hong kong, though, the big winner we're seeing gains in europe as well germany and the u.k. actually are up fractionally. it's where we begin your news day. the u.k. is gearing up for one of the most important brexit votes since the actual vote for brexit steve sedgwick live with the details on what we can expect. steve. >> brian, good to see you. there's so many different scenarios that could be painted in flow charts, diagrams the fact of the matter is mrs. may, the prime minister is facing an absolutely huge task to get her withdrawal through out of the parliament today.

she suffered defeat after defeat recently through last week which clipped her wings and clipped her government's wings and their ability to go forward, but this is the big one the fact of the matter is not many people believe that she will get it passed today, but most people think it will be a large defeat on the hands. the question is then what happens next there are many, many scenarios does she quit? does she say identify had enough i'm walking out. she'll face a no confidence vote that is almost sure i spoke to the shadow transport sector of labour mp andy mcdonald. she said almost certainly, very imminently jeremy corbin will table a vote of no confidence in the prime minister, and that could set often a process that could potentially to a general election we may potentially see a second referendum with mp's can't work out a way through this quagmire as well. that brings all constitutional

issues what is most certainly going to happen, though, is that the prime minister, if she does get defeated, will say i'm going to go back to brussels and try to renegotiate what happens next is anyone's guess >> all right, steve. what is the timeline today when can we expect a resolution on the vote, get an actual feel as to the way this thing is going to go? >> so accident look look, there's an order of business and all kinds of amend ams that are going to be put forward and taken away that the mp's are playing games on both sides of the party, but basically around 7:00 p.m. local time here. i think it's about 2:00 p.m. eastern time we are expecting the votes to take place, and, of course, thereafter things could move very quickly we may get a speech from mrs. may very quickly about what she intends to do next we may get an almost immediate vote of no confidencefrom the opposition as well one wleefz that almost certainty what people are saying here is she's going to go back and she won't resign that's not in the nature of the woman, and she'll just try to renegotiate very quickly with

brussels we may have a counsel meeting by the weekend. looking at the numbers, i spoke to various mp's today, and not many of them are voting behind her on the government today. we could see a no vote resolution around about 7:00 p.m. this evening. >> steve, you said general election okay we mapt be that up on u.k. political voting here's the thing here's my question if we get the no vote today, sounds like you believe this will go to a general election. if we read that right, is that meaning that it is possible, if they go through that, in other words, you guys have the ability to have a presidential election that are off cycle that theresa may could lose her job >> we have the fixed term parliament act over here which basically is supposed to be sure that you can't have snap general election it's supposed to happen -- it's a link as well there are ways, and one of those ways is a no confidence vote to get a significant number of mp's voting against the government today, and if nobody can get the support of parliament, then it

will go to a general election thereafter i think that is something that many people do not want to see and at the moment is only an outside scenario there is a chain of events that could certainly lead to that if we see the demise of mrs. may. >> steve sedgwick live in a very lively, very chilly looking london as well a lot of action. it's very hot politically there. i want to make you feel better for a second, my friend. you know what that is? you have a functioning government right now >> what are you going to do? >> you have a functioning government >> just about. just about >> just about. steve, real pleasure see you soon take care. it may fooelz feel years since the original brexit vote, and it has been, but maybe not as long as you might think it's been just over two and a half years since that june 2016 original vote. the question is how is the u.k. market and global markets done since then well, despite all the negative talk and conotation, things haven't been awful look at the various markets' performance. japan, the best performing market up 27%.

that is followed by us here in the u.s. up about 25% the u.k., despite all that stuff, all this argument and talk and the protests, the u.k. market is up nearly 10% since that original brexit vote. that's followed by 7% gains in germany, and, of course, the -- down double digits in that time. let's tie all this together. we know him also as a man who could really talk to anything out there. simon, from a currency perspective, a market perspective, ate political perspective, how is this going to shake out, not only today, but in the next couple of weeks and months financially zbroot other thing looking out beyond the immediate uncertainties of the next couple of weeks is that you're likely

to see a fairly significant change in one form or another in the british political landscape. that matters that matters it has mattered for sterling for decades. for example, the prime minister's position ultimately is bolstered and what happens over the next few months, and cementing their position in parliament, that could be good for sterling equally, if there is a result that comes out in a diminishes her power, that gives the opportunity for general election, and for a new coalition government to come in. that could be a huge negative for sterling >> is there any situation where you see anything other than that happening? everything that we have heard, steve just talked about it, is that she's going to be lucky to get this vote through today, and even -- it's not going to be strong enough to really give her or her administration the support she needs? >> i think we can see stability.

we can see stability if her deal came through, but i think from a market perspective, that would be seen as being a real positive it would finally remove all of the uncertainty you've had for the last few years that would be a real positive for the pound. whether it's as much of a positive for the ftse 1 00, which is obviously sterling dominated may be less so, but i could certainly see political stability being positive for the currency equally, though, if they have a no deal brexit, i could imagine sterling trade one turn against the dollar we've been there before. we could go there again. >> if it goes no and the signs are that there will be a general election, which prime minister may may or may not be likely to lose, what then? >> so if we vote no today, it will be about the margin of the loss if we talk about 200 plus margin, that's a historic level of defeat. that's going to make it very difficult for it to turn this

around then the question will be who will vote in favor of no confidence in the government at the moment that's hard to see. if we do have a vote of no confidence in the government, if we moved to a general election, then all bets are off of sterling, and i would expect we could see a large -- and, again, i think you could see a huge amount of downward pressure on the currency change of government, but we still don't know how we're leaving the european union >> simon derek, b & y melon. i know it's a big day for you over there good luck. we'll talk to you soon thank you. >> thank you now let's get analysis on this side of the pond, as this he say boris, cnbc contributor, joining us as well boris, you are kind of the simon derek of the united states, right? you are a currency guy by heart, but you can go macroand talk about anything you just heard his analysis. is there anything that you would disagree with in what he said?

>> i don't think we're going to go through election right now? it looks like she's going to lose the vote by about 160 votes. corbin is going to call for a no confidence, but i think it's doubtful that the no confidence motion will pass she's going to muddle through. they're basically three scenario that is are going to happen at this point we're either going to have to have a second referendum and delay article 50, or we get a hard brexit. now, choice number three if she chooses to follow the hard brexit choice then, yes, i think we're going to have a new election >> hard brexit, maybe they think about a hard boiled egg at 5:1 1 in the morning hard brexit means that they're leaving the e.u. brexit is in rs for, but there is no -- >> there's no deal >> that means it's a divorce that is the meanest that there's no deal, no one -- it's not like

there's a hug at the end, and you get half, and i get half this is a split and you are gone >> the economic implication of that are catastrophic. you have to understand that -- >> why are you saying catastrophic >> catastrophic because they don't get a customs eal, which means they import 80% of their food i don't even know what percentage of medicines they import, but basically it's critical societial functions could be threatened if they don't have a deal because they simply have no way to create a customs union. a lot of goods and transports are going to be stuck. no ebb wants it. 82% of the britains, even those that voted for leave do not want what we call a hard brexit i can't imagine that the market -- the market right now is basically pricing -- does not price in that scenario that's why you see the pound pricing at 128 right now >> it just seems dumb. >> you are fighting about a border wall. whatever your political views are, $5 billion is a couple of hours of operating income for the united states government i mean, the amount of money is

so small, but it's a political discussion, right? it means more than just the money. where the folks in the u.k. are going to be in a situation where, hey, we might not have food medicine, can't get that in. is there any way that's going to happen >> my argument, and this is, by the way, the global argument right now that i think is happening that the markets globally and the economy globally is not being threatened by any kind of a comic contraction, but by all these political riffs. in other words, the things that are driving us towards very, very bad outcomes are not rationale, and it's very, very hard to handicap politics. as you know. the anglo-saxon model seems to be turned upside down. very hard to say you assume -- the markets are basically assuming a rationale course of action, and i think that's probably the right course. cooler heads will prevail. it will come down to some kind of a deal, and the u.k. will stay within the customs union. >> you got me so scared. i'm going to start a clipper

service to start importing food to the u.k. via sale if this happens. what's the likely outcome? what's the -- how about this what's the best possible outcome for the markets, for the global market for the u.s., u.k., for everybody. >>. >> the best possible outcome is in the u.k. just simply stayed in the e.u., and they did a second referendum. that's a long shot right now stay within the customs union. basically maintain things as they stand it keeps the financial sector and u.k. within the e.u. and it keeps all of it going, and it's going to be a big sigh of relief, and you will see cable trade above 130 in that's the outcome. basically, it eliminates that whole risk of political uncertainty with all this economic cat clichl that could happen if we go the wrong way. >> boris of bk asset management. we had a live look at

parliament snoo zbrat day thank you very much. by the way, on that global market since brexit chart, we know there were two china flags. that's okay. we're going to fix that. we're just getting started on worldwide exchange playing for keeps. the one fun stock getting a big boost this morning we'll bring you that name ahead. later on, we're on earnings watch. a number of big-time companies led by jp morgan chase and wells fargo set to roll out their numbers. we're going to set you up for all you need to know stick around alley? with a cockpit fit for aspaceship. hang on. radar that senses things the human eye can't. busted. and the ability to make a thousand decisions before you even make one.

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my name is mike, i'm in product development at comcast. we're working to make things simple, easy and awesome. good tuesday morning 5:17 here's your money. investments are setting up their tuesday ahead of that big brexit vote down futures are higher. not a lot. up about 70 points right now, but, of course, we are watching them closely as well what about the bond market well, unlike stocks, bonds haven't moved that much. the ten-year yield on the note, what is it, 2.68%. we continue to see buyers coming in to the ten-year as that yield comes down >> outside of the macromarkets, it may be about arcade games bankruptcy fears, the one name that just keeps going and going and going. let's get to a man who never stops working, fred collins with today's stock to watch >> i start out with the

bankruptcy fears fitch and s&p cutting pg&e's credit rating again after the company allows to plan for bankruptcy protection. the company faces billions of dollars in claims from last year's deadly campfire pg&e stock lost more than half of its value yesterday shares are down this morning almost it% well, shares of dave and busters are up more than 6% this morning. the restaurant and arcade chain is raising its profit and revenue fork he for the year fun and games with a mixed outlook. the company expects a jump in same store sales in the fourth quarter, but a decline in sales for the full year. energizer holdings reporting better than expected preliminary first quarter results. the maker of energizer, rayavac and errready batteries plans to offer 350 million in new shares. brian, back to you >> thank, thank you. we'll see you in a few minutes with the top trending stories. still no end in sight to the d.c. dysfunction the shutdown now entering its 25th day

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wti traded crude came down yesterday. still, one of the best starts if not the best start to a year for oil ever meantime, in political news, we are now in day 25 of the partial government shutdown. there appears to be no end in sight. nbc susan mcginnis live for you in d.c. with more. susan. >> hey, brian. good morning day 25 no sign of a break in this deadlock. the president saying, look, at a farming convention, he will never back down. he is backing away, though, from that threat to declare a national emergency saying he does not want to do it that way. he did reject a suggestion from a prominent republican senator who said reopen the government for a period of three weeks or so and see if you can make a deal then. if want, then go to that emergency option he rejected that yesterday a group of republican senators and democratic senators met yesterday about a dozen of them. they walked away discouraged saying that their biggest signal right now is a protracted very long fight going on. democrats continuing to refuse

to budge, and there are no negotiations scheduled at this point. brian. >> no sign at all. unbelievable susan mcginnis in d.c. thank you for working. we appreciate it let's get a check on this morning's other top hlsz, including the blowing up of a major bridge in new york, but on purpose. nbc's francis riviera in new york now with that and other headlines. francis. >> hi, brian good tuesday morning to you. we start with president trump's pick for the next attorney general who is going to be in the hot seat on capitol hill today. the confirmation hearing for william barr begins later this morning. for the next few days senators will grill him on everything from his relationship with mr. trump to the russia investigation brsh he has said if confirmed he will let robert mueller finish his probe in los angeles heavy rain did not stop tens of thousands of teachers from flooding the streets for their first strike in three decades teachers and staff in the nation's second largest school district willing resume their strike today demanding smaller classrooms and better pay as well as more nurses, counsellors

and librarians new york's historic tappan zee bridge is about to get blown to bits a control leveling of what's now called the old tappan zee is set to take place between 10:00 and 11:00 eastern time with explosives it was scheduled for an earlier day, but it got postponed because of bad weather traffic blocks will be in place for everyone's safety. i guarantee we'll have video of that it's always impressive to see. >> i have a feeling that somebody will show video that giant bridge -- there's giant speculation. thank you very much. >> apparently it could actually live stream it that's where we are in america >> up next, the brexit battle, the u.k. gearing up for a high stakes vote today. what it could mean for the markets and your money even if you're not invested in europe. plus, have it trump's way? what the president did at the white house last night is sure to have everyone in the office talking today as usual stick around

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zbloinchts it could be a make or break moment you just hours away from an historic breck it vote stateside investors gearing up for a huge day of bank earnings. will they show the economy is actually slowing or still growing? check this out >> raving about virginia before the game [ buzzer ] time for -- oh, and it's good! >> an incredible show in college

basketball the shock outcome. take that, duke. all that right now as a second half tips off right now. ♪ i feel like i can't miss ♪ >> unranked -- >> putting something up in durham welcome back thank you for being with us. good tuesday morning you are looking right now or you will in moments live at the u.k. parliament where in just hours british politicians will vote on theresa may's plan to leave the e.u. the market and the world will be closely watch this vote and as always, we're going to have full coverage of the make it or break it brexit moment all day long right here on cnbc the results of that vote not expected until tonight, but there's a lot happening in the lead-up to it. in the meantime, let's get you caught up to speed on what else is happening out there right now. frank collin is back with your executive recap. >> here's what's leading

cnbc.com china is signaling more stimulus measures could be coming in the near future. this comes as chooirn's economy shows fresh signs of a slowdown. that news giving asian shares a lift overnight you see it right here. now moving on to europe. greece will hold a confidence vote tomorrow after greece's defense minister abruptly quit over a naming deal with neighboring macedonia. they're expected to win that confidence vote. we're getting -- we continue to follow the shares on a pg&e. the california out tilt company lost about half of its value yesterday after the company said it would seek bankruptcy protection pg&e shares are now down nearly 3% in premarket trading. brian. back to you. >> all right, frank. thank you very much. in the meantime, here's how your markets are shaping up on this tuesday morning. coming off the first back to back losses for trading in 2019. listen, i know it's early in the year, but we had a pretty good start to 2019. looks like we could rebound just a bit today.

futures are not as high as they were dow futures up 55 right now. still, they are in the green let's talk more now about the markets, about the currency markets and really about this massive brexit vote. joseph, fx street senior market analyst joining us right now listen, joe, there's a lot of people out there in america. maybe watching right now or anywhere in the world. the show goes globally where they think, okay, this is a side show that they're watching, and they know it's important, but from a markets perspective, they may not care tell them why they need to care. >> this is the biggest thing i mean, this is the biggest single vote that's happened in currency markets in some time. whatever happens with the vote in parliament today, there's going to be a pretty sharp reaction in the currencies for that there's nothing else that the market is paying any attention to it's going to affect the euro. it's going to affect the sterling it's going to affect the cross it will effect the vut economically going forward for both britain and the e.u

the e.u. has been playing this a bit as if it doesn't matter much if it happens to its economy i think it matters very much >> the setup basically for today, because there's been a lot of votes, there's probably a lot of confusion out there about what exactly is going on i'm going to dramatically oversimplify it. basically today theresa may, the prime minister putting forth kind of a divorce greement, an she's got sort of what she wants and what they're going to give back and sort of this soft brexit, if you will. three possible outcomes. it passes, which nobody thinks is going to happen >> correct >> it loses, but by a small margin, or it loses by a big margin if it loses by a big margin, it is likely theresa may may lose her job because then they're going to have a general election for -- possibly for prime minister >> that's very correct >> what's the best outcome from a dollar sterling perspective today. >> well, for the sterling, the currency, and even for the euro,

the best outcome is for theresa may to lose by a very small amount if that happens, i would say essential under 100. if it's over 100 votes, not quite lights out, but it's a very bad situation if it's under 100, and the lower the better, she has more chance to convince -- >> tweaking. >> to keep tweaking. >> to go back to the european commission and say, you know, this is what i need. >> if neening the soft brexit deal, where there's a brexit deal, the separation from the e.u. that has conditions that everybody wants or at least that her party wants. >> well, it has conditions that some people in her party want.

you know, for this agreement everyone dislikes it to some degree >> what is it, 639 men and women. it's bigger than our congress. >> that's correct. >> in a nation that is much smaller. you're never -- it's 639 people voting on effectively a divorce. >> that is correct >> nobody is going to agree on everything if agree on anything. >> the conservatives and tories largely because of the irish backstop, which they don't have a way out of that for england on britain at any set time. that's the biggest problem >> this border issue >> yes >> amazing how border issues are kind of mucking up politics globally, is it not? >> it is it's interesting that from a historical point of view, the irish question is still with britain and its internal and

international domestic politics. if she can get that approved, there's a chance even though nobody likes it. >> can i ask you a really dumb question,? >> please. >> it's so dog gone early here we had a graphic earlier we're going to bring it back up here, which is i know you're a currency guy, but i want to ask you from a -- it's a stock market since the june 2016 original brexit vote the japanese market has soared the u.s. market has soared up 25% the u.k. is up nearly 10%. germany up 7%. china has soured global markets have not exactly tank tanked. >> i think the fears are

overstated specifically from brexit, but i think that in a short-term if it fails, then the emotional reaction for the equities is going to be strong >> what if may pulls a rabbit out of the hat a parliamentary hat. no handicappers, no betters. they bet on everything in the u.k. i think this is going to happen. >> hey, syracuse in a full court buzzer beater at the half yesterday. beat duke. they were unranked anything can happen. >> that is true. >> what if it passes >> if it passes, they will be one of the most astonishing runs up for the sterling that we've ever seen. >> the market -- >> the currency desks aren't prepared for this, are they? >> i don't know that they are anymore. currency desks are driven by computer programmers they don't really have -- i mean, it's been a while since i saw it on a currency desk, but they don't have the same responsibilities for the positions and for the pricing that they used to when the traders were running the desk. it will be quite astonishing if that happens.

>> let's find out what else you are going to be talking about today. it can't all be about brexit time for the top trending stories. frank holland is back. >> time for your favorite segment. >> on the menu an assortment of fast food. the president ordering in burgers from mcdonald's, wendy's, and burger king, as well as pizza and french fries the reason, much of the resident straf at the white house it furlowed during to the shutdown.

>> you can eat it on the go. you get variety. listen, this isn't a commercial, but, yes, taco bell is my favorite >> you see, now we're going to be bobded even more by hot sauce. >> if you are tired of the daily grind and the 9:00 to 5:00, this might be the story for you the owners of the east brothers lighthouse bed and breakfast in california are retiring, and they're looking to pay their replacement $130,000 a year. the lighthouse is located in the san francisco bay. now, the job is for two people who are going on have to split that salary. responsibilities include maintenance of the b&b as well as guests from the island to the mainland a commercial boating license is required i got two words for you. captain sully. >> there already is a captain sully. >> i know that >> i think -- isn't today the ten-year anniversary >> really? >> the miracle on the hudson

>> today is, i believe, the exact ten-year anniversary much the miracle on the hudson? >> that was incredible. >> sully, if you are out there anywhere, good job >> do you ever feel like you don't have the energy to make it through the day? >> i know sometimes we do every day. >> well, the new infinity xq inspiration, it had one of those days yesterday the car was plenty to make its debut at the detroit auto show, but it didn't even make it it rolled about halfway out before stopping. infinity was able to repair the technical problem and the car made its debut a few hours later. the pr hit, though, it's going to hurt. >> it is still -- let's call it an evolving technology >> there you go. >> frank, thank you very much. >> thanks, sir >> we'll have to do a wex,

worldwide exchange, taco bell run here soon. >> my shoulder thanks >> the incredible moment in college basketball overnight referred to this earlier number one duke posted syracuse. >> time for a -- >> it's good >> that wasn't to win the game that was the half. it played into the game. the orangemen were down four the orange with seconds until halftime when sear yuz makes that i mean, unbelievably nearly full court shot from the opposite three-point line good for a buzzer beater it mattered because sear kooz went on to win the game in overtime shocking just the cameron crazies crying. 95-91, syracuse orange win tonight, though, is the big game virginia tech at uva tyler matheson and i scrapping tomorrow up next, tariffs, trade, and

switer rants the three t's that are atop of mind for retailers stacy will be on set i promise. i will not spill water i can't promise that i might spill water on stacy today. >> earnings season in full swing. the top names that you need to watch, including jp morgan chase, wells, and others when worldwide exchange continues after this ven trouble with reca. thankfully, the breakthrough in prevagen helps your brain and actually improves memory. the secret is an ingredient originally discovered... in jellyfish. in clinical trials, prevagen has been shown to improve short-term memory. prevagen. healthier brain. better life.

he. it's been a great start. nasdaq still up 4% for 2019. we'll see if that january effect actually plays into effect dow futures upful. treasuries continue to get bought yield just under 2.7%. okay it's a big-time for retail right now. one of the world's biggest retail shows underweight in new york your next guest says it is really the three t's tariffs, trade, and twitter rants. that is the big focus this year. joining us now stacy, president of sw retail sad a advisors, first time seeing her in 2019 on set. happy new year >> happy 23450u year >> step away from the desk >> water is over here. >> i dumped a huge thing of water on her last time you're fine now. >> i was going to throw a donut at you >> i would love that do you have one? >> i will eat it

let's talk about retail first. i want to ask you something. you live in the u.k., and you spend a lot of time. there's a lot of retailers here that exist there and vice versa. how is breck it playing out from a retail perspective >> terribly. >> are people hunkered down? don't spend any money. we don't know what's going to happen >> people are bunkered down in some sense because they just don't know what's going to happen, and the other thing is that when you think about the retailers, they purchase in dollars. the sterling, as it weakens, it hurts their margins. i think overall it's just -- management are sitting back and saying do we spend do we not spend? do we vest or hire or just hold back and bunker down, and it's very similar to what's happening in the states right now. >> it's important for investors to know because there's a lot of -- a, there's a lot of american retailers that are there, and european retailer that is are here, but there's also a lot of u.s. retailers that own chains in the u.k. and europe that we don't even think about. or they have investments in

them there's a risk to u.s. retailers because of brexit. >> it's huge, and you would be surprised to know that for many u.s. retailers and brands up to 30% to 40% of their business is in europe. we're talking about a pvh or -- >> 30% to 40%? >> up to, yes, it's hugely exposed to europe. >> abercrombie & fitch, is that big in the u.k >> to europe you have to think globally now you can't just think about what's happening in the u.s. most of the retailers, ralph lauren is 20% in europe. you have to think about the piece of the puzzle and what's happening over there >> you have the three t's. trade, taf iz, and that's related and twitter rants. that means the fourth team, which is trump, i suppose. the nrf, national retail federation said yesterday the ceo was on "squawk box", and i was listening to the interview he was talking about how supply chains, they're disrupted, but they've been disrupted even before the trade fight >> even before all this

happened >> that's absolutely true. matt shay, head of the nrf, i did a podcast yesterday with him, and this is what we talked about. by the way, okay, china obviously poses a risk with increased tariffs. china labor has been increasing the time loof manufacturing has already moved outside of china probably the average of -- it's about 20% of their manufacturing is exposed to china. it's not a disaster. you know, it's certainly going to be under transition that transition -- >> is it going to move back to the united states? >> for a couple of retailers, they have brought some of the sourcing back because it reduces lead times >> speak about wages in retail and active gone up and up and up it's not logical to think that the cost structure can be transferred back to the u.s. >> i'm easily confused especially at 5:47 macy's was -- the stock was a disaster

>> they've gotten all these mixed signals. >> master card said retail was up 5%. however, again, great number the best we've had in years. this is the problem. it's like the great divide continues. you look at macy's their two-year comp was 2% if this is the bestenvironment we've ever had, think about next year when the r-word is now creeping in as we heard at the nrf a bit yesterday. then you look at other plarsz like target that did a two-year 9% comp. you've got the winners and losers divide bigger than ever >> i do under with, the mall was -- i had to take my daughter to the mall last weekend it was packed. i know a lot of people have said, you know, don't get me anything just give me a gift card i want to stock up on the sales after christmas. >> exactly >> is there any indication that maybe the holiday spending has shifted even after christmas it seems like a lot of people

are shopping now because we've been trained to think, yeah, it's not romantic. it's not fun to not have much under the tree or whatever, but fun is getting a lot more for your money >> it's opposite what you have seen is that the deals and the discounts -- >> before? >> start a month before black friday >> you're still seeing the shift before the discounts, particularly the week before christmas, are getting bigger and bigger, and that lull in mid-december is getting bigger and bigger. retailers panic into the holiday and press that discount button >> nobody says i'm wrong nicer and more polite. >> i try to -- >> where is a cup of water whoa watch out. stacy, thank you very much >> good to see you >> really important point now, abercrombie and some others with a lot of exposure to the u.k.

and the mainland european market watch those names. stacy, thank you very much still ahead, betting on the banks. jp morgan chase about to report its results. we'll give you all the numbers that you need to watch as the numbers cross the tape, and we're gaming out the scenarios for brexit and your money stk ouicarnd (client's voice) remember that degree you got in taxation? (danny) of course you don't because you didn't! your job isn't doing hard work... ...it's making them do hard work... ...and getting paid for it. (vo) snap and sort your expenses to save over $4,600 at tax time.

quickbooks. backing you.

>> earnings season is in full swing. look at the chart or if you are on the radio imagine a beautiful chart with a bunch of big name company logos on it. in about an hour we are going to hear from jp morgan chase. it's going to be followed by other names like wells fargo, united health, and delta airlines that's just today. you got goldman tomorrow, bank of america, amex, morgan stanley on thursday. netflix. by the way, there's a brexit vote let's bring in larry mcdonald, head of global macrostrategy, acg analytics, editor of the bear trap report, cnbc

contributor. okay, larry. here's the question of the day what's going to be more important for our equity markets? the brexit vote today or the way earnings start to roll in today? >> it's definitely earnings. i mean, the brexit vote has been priced in -- we've had so much brexit noise at the end of the day they're going to kick the can again. that's -- more importantly, the -- you have to understand, jeff, give him a shout out doing a great job on this last week getting out there, but there's two t 2 trillion of debt in the corporate bond market that's coming due in the next three years. $2 trillion. ten years ago that number was -- if you looked out over the next three years, ten years ago, that number was $800 billion. the question is has the economy grown enough to sustain that debt level and to pay off that debt level, and that's what you are going to see in these conference calls on these

earnings, because guess what, the capital markets, brian, just shut down for 40 days. they're starting to thaw, but not one high yield company was able to come to market that hasn't happened in years, and that is the number one focus for earnings season is the ability to refinance this huge wall of debt >> it did okay wasn't the best thing that we had ever seen. you just heard stacy talk about how there's a lot of u.s. companies that have exposesure to the u.k. and european market where there's a risk there as well you sound mighty confident that they're just going to kick the brexit can down the road again, larry. >> i really think so the stakes are too high. germany is essentially in recession. the u.k. is heading towards recession. i think you buy european stocks. european stocks are the cheapest in the u.s. in my lifetime remember, the fed is experimenting with its 50 billion a month of balance sheet

reduction. this is utterly ridiculous with the amount of debt coming due. i think you're going to see in the three to four weeks to five weeks ahead, the fed -- there's a serpent within the market. there's a beast in there the beast in the market broke the fed over its knees in the last three weeks on rate hikes the serpent isn't satisfied. the next step is -- >> what's the serpent? i'm confused it's like a grimm's fairy tale what's the serpent >> it's basically people -- not people, but the market is trading short. in other words, we will sell the rallies. the market will be driven lower and lower until the fed completely breaks down on this balance sheet because there's just -- let me tell you, there's very simple math 50 billion a month of balance sheet reduction and two trillion yon of corporate debt coming due in the next three years. that doesn't add up. it's crushing the global economy, and its crushing the german economy, and, remember, this 62 trillion of gdp outside

the united states only 18 in you can't crush the global economy and expect the u.s. to survive. we're not watching -- listening to the thompson dwinz in the 1980s. this is a different world. >> good reference there to that one-hit -- maybe a two-hit wonder larry mcdonald, acg analytics. i wasn't nervous, but now i am have a great day thank you. >> thanks. zplienkts "today" rbi will make you the smartest person in the office today about something totally random facts about the pentagon why? the building was completed in 1943 it may no longer be the biggest building in the world, but it still has all kinds of silly stats around it. 26,000 people work there not just military. civilians too. they park in 16 parking lots and take 19 escalators to work there's six snack bars that serve 4500 cups per coffee per day. also 691 water fountains 284 bathrooms. here's something even more random and telling for a long time, it was the biggest building in the world. now that title goes to the new

century global center in china and three casinos are now bigger than the pentagon. random but hopefully interesting. "squawk box" is now.

snienchts u.s. stocks futures trading higher they rallied overnight is signalled more economic stimulus could be on the way a full market rundown is on the way. we're just hours away, meanwhile, from a make or break brexit vote. could have dire consequences we'll tell you why a close defeat of theresa may's brexit divorce could be the best option remaining for the prime minister it's complex and it's a busy day for earnings we're going to hear from dow components, united health and jp morgan as well as delta airlines and wells farg yes it is tuesday, january 15th,

2019 "squawk box" begins right now. >> i'm becky quick along with joe kernan and andrew ross sorkin our guest host from the next two hours is noah blackstein it's great to have you here today, notice wra. let's take a look at the u.s. equity futures yesterday stocks were off once again. second day in a row. they did pair their losses that we saw earlier in the session with the dow ending down just about 86 points. earlier in the morning when we were looking at things it was down by 250 points in the premarket. you can see this morning that it looks like futures are indicated higher this morning. dow futures indicated up by 83 points s&p futures up by 5.5, and the