maybe have a give back day to day market action has been relatively healthy but hasn't proven that we've got escape velocity off of those lows. >> and a chance to hear from the ceo on the earnings call. >> he will be on the earnings call that doe today for "closing bell." thanks for watching. >> have a good night "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. tonight on "fast" check out shares of united airlines reporting earnings moments ago the stock is soaring after hours. we'll bring you all the details. plus, we are in the midst of the longest government shutdown ever and wall street is starting to worry one top strategist says it's just a sideshow. he'll tell us how much higher he thinks the market is going from here. first, we start off with the power of netflix ♪ i've got the power

>> it's guy's favorite song. it's pete's ring tone. flexing its pricing power pushing the price from $11 to $13. investors are loving it. the stock is surging, now up 50% from the december lows so how much pricing power does netflix have are there other stocks out there that have a similar ability to hike prices on the consumer? >> that's my favorite song. >> that's your wedding song. >> it's a very festive, very emotional -- >> it's an empowering song. >> get to it, guy! >> apparently netflix has quite a bit. companies where you don't feel it, like i am a -- believe it or not, i am a netflix subscriber i have no idea how much -- and i don't think i'm atypical i don't know how much i pay, i don't know where the bill goes to. >> it's magic. >> it's magic. and i think you can increase prices i think 80% of the people that have it have no clue and that's simplistic but i happen to believe it's true. we've been bullish netflix

i believe they release on thursday i'm sort of skeptical, as a lot of people are, why they would announce this ahead of earnings. doesn't matter who else fits in that category i don't think disney does because you see the bill but a company like amazon, i think this absolutely empowers amazon not to necessarily act in kind but in the back of their mind they can say, hmm, netflix has done it we can do it to our amazon prime folks as well >> to guy's point, how much do you pay for amazon prime right now. there's a lot of people who don't know how much they're paying for that. >> do you know >> i think it's $120 right now i don't know and you get video, you get music. so you get a whole lot for amazon which makes everything look a lot more expensive, but i think netflix, amazon, right off the bat, pricing power. >> is this real pricing power or just the consumers' laziness to look at their bills and figure out what they have paying for things >> if you believe that netflix, first of all, is really what i think we're talking about first

has enormous competition, which i do, i do think there's not a whole lot of pricing power i can't argue that this is a company right now that certainly continues to probably deal from strength, and that's why they're doing it right now i think if you look at latin america where 40 odd companies outside of the united states are actually going to be hit with higher prices, i'm not sure there's the same kind of insensitivity to higher prices so part of the netflix story really is a global expansion and that they're somewhat saturated in terms of u.s. subs. i think you have to make some assumptions that it's not going to be a straight line without competition. >> you know who pays my netflix? t-mobile i bet you a lot of people have those deals now. i don't know how incremental or nonincrements t nonincremental that is. >> how does t-mobile -- >> it's a bundle and they absorb the increase as well so there's a lot of things they do where people bundle together, whether it's telephone or something else where it's paid

for. and that's a growing -- >> and i don't know how saturated we are even yet necessarily in north america all you guys brought this up already but the reason there's pricing power is people aren't probably looking at their bill, whether it's amazon or netflix they look at it and say 120 for the year, it's worth it to me. i think that's the attitude people have with netflix as well because they have got the content people are looking for yes, there's competition out there, but i think the fact that they continue to reinvest in themselves and they continue to expand, if you look at the last couple of north american numbers, they have beat the expectations fairly consistently, netflix has. i think amazon has that same sort of pricing power. >> let's play tim's argument out, though. let's say subscriber growth in the u.s. is saturated and we're reaching almost full subscribership in the united states as long as you can continue raising prices on that same pool of subscribers, isn't that all that matters >> that offsets growth, right? listen, last quarter was good.

i remember steve talking about the last quarter being a bellwether for the earnings season in a lot of ways, he was right the stock did really well for a day, reversed, the rest of the market followed. the last quarter for netflix i thought was prettygood i think this quarter will be equally good i think you could see the same reaction i think you'll see a rollover. to answer your question, i think they can continue to sort of ratchet up prices. they made a mistake about six years agoish, i think they were too young, in the infancy stages of growth where the consumer didn't want the price raises now i think they have locked enough people in, they have had this tremendous land grab -- >> they built their own content. that was the key people in droves went to netflix. but when you look at it as a whole, i think it is indicative of which way the market will roll so i think it has topped out at these levels i think it is a sell i think it's the last gasp i think netflix is a sell, the overall market is a sell the reason these things rally is

they were so beaten up in december it was the value growth. now you're probably going to see a retracement of that. >> ask yourself the question, is content becoming more expensive or is it getting cheaper it's getting cheaper >> is it it's getting cheaper >> look at all the things i can now watch on tv for the same price, whether it's bundling or whatnot. >> cheaper for the consumer. okay, as opposed to the production of content. >> and in fact i think for netflix this is a big problem. they were supposed to be cash flow positive last year. my point is i think there's a point and i think there is sensitivity on price but you get to a place where a number of other people are going to be offering packages that i think are around that bar. i think it makes a difference. >> did anybody think it was strange to hear about a price increase just days before netflix is due to report earnings >> we said that -- okay, pete. >> what kind of a -- >> maybe it's a little conspiracy theory of me, but it makes me think that netflix

wants you to say, hey, this is great and then on earnings there's going to be some sort of a miss or an increase in spending, an increase in the amount of debt it has. >> i would look more towards the spending side of it. we've seen that time and time again in terms of the reinvestment and the spend in terms of what they are trying to get that content and globalization, trying to get the international subscribers as well this is a stock that i pitched here back in october and the stock is virtually unchanged now through this huge run. but i'll tell you what, it's a great example of how do you navigate through the markets right now? i've been selling calls for the last three months in front of this stock now i've sucked in all of that premium against that the stock has done virtually nothing. when you look at the returni, it's pretty incredible it's how you can use the derivatives market to protect yourself where we were down 100 points and come all the way back. >> you know what we call that? we call that a synthetic dividend. >> you're darn tooting create your own dividend. >> i actually think this could

mean they have really good news to announce. they could basically have some reinforcement in terms of their subscriber data or viewership which allows them to feel like let's push it out there. i think pricing power is obviously something we started the segment with, who else has got it you know, let's think about apple. apple is another one of these companies -- >> does it >> this is the question. the high-end phones are not the ones there's a lack of demand on it's the ones in the middle and the too many skus. the asp started to go up and that mitigated the lack of demand on the lower stuff. >> i think they don't have pricing power. when you look back on the charts where at&ts and t-mobiles started when they weren't subsidizing them any more, fell off a cliff when you look at apple, it retraced that move but it doesn't have the guy in the back pocket paying for the phone anymore so they have to work that out on their own.

it becomes leasing a car when you buy an apple phone. >> your second question, i think reed hastings has been at this too long to release this price raise today and release a lousy number i don't see them doing that at this point in their history. i'm in tim's camp, but i'm in steve's camp as well this is going from 234 to 350 in less than a month. that's a pretty ridiculous move. just to be smart i think you have to take money off the table. >> i'm a camper guy, we're camped together. but this whole streaming thing, when you look at netflix, there still is the growth. i say that in erterms of the sun describer growth in north america and internationally and you see some record numbers out there and then start to tack on some of the other areas you're seeing growth in terms of streaming, that was up 36% this is a company showing you growth

now, they have got to get free cash flow which they say won't come until 2021. >> all the faang stocks fighting back let's go off the charts with todd gordon who's breaking down the entire space >> hey, melissa, let's take a look at netflix and that strong move that we saw from 230 may not have been that surprising. it's beautiful uptrend channel support. if you take a look, you can see we have perfect support right here i think carter worth would agree these parallel lines are worth their weight in gold so it looks like if you kind of zoom in here and get off this weekly chart down to a daily, we have an old high of about $380 we need to overtake that at that point if this parallel channel continues, you have room until about 620 until you reach technical resistance a long move from here, but that's just what the charts say. the other thing i would say is maybe that pricing increase, how

many of you share log-ins with netflix. i know you can share with four or five log-ins. >> nobody does that! >> my whole family logs into my netflix account. >> not anymore. >> i know, i know. facebook is another one that has been beaten down rightfully so huge sell-off here we did a double bottom at this low here what you'll see is the rate of change you throw a ball in the air, it's going to go up, then lose momentum, reverse course and start to head lower. that's the same concept with this relative strength we're losing downside momentum as we did a double bottom here around that 120 level. it looks like the bad news is fully priced in. the trade is crowded anyone who wants to sell has already done that. shorts are starting to come in usually those technicals will lead to fundamental improvement, whatever that story may be so two faang names that look supported, it ought hinges on

the s&p here this chart, we technicians have been piling over there's two huge levels right about the 2026.80 level. that was the break down where people are caught right there. as we're coming back and i know grasso is watching this level. can we get back to even money? fine, sold so that 2680 is a huge, huge level. 2700 as well we have the 200-day at 2740. there is about 100-point zone that we have to break through on the upside to call the coast clear. i think the market has a lot to prove to us upping that level. i will be selling into this level with stops above >> todd, i'm just curious if you're going to be selling into those levels on the s&p 500, would you be selling on the two faang names that you like on strength >> no, i'm going to keep it simple i know as traders, i know where my levels are defined.

faang is in a nice recovery. i find if you are trading, it's easier to keep it simple >> todd, thank you todd gordon of tradinganalysis.com. grasso, what do you think of the levels. >> netflix overshot. i think its 350. the over shoot level is 377. you can play it against that level but i'd be a seller right here the s&p 500 is 2715. that's the overshoot level there. but i think we fail prior to that level all clear is 2816 above that level in the cash. >> so 50-dayon the s&p 500 is 2631 and, you know, it almost can't be this easy if you look at the s&p, it's failed there since mid-september, late september, certainly the october drawdown i think the pain trade is actually to the upside what you see if you look at the s&p or if you look at the short interest, it hasn't really changed that much. i think there's more short covering to go i think more people were calling

this, you've got to retrace the lows i think that's where the market wants to go, where the street wants it to go and in fact the pain trade is probably north of that >> what do you think of the faang recovery that we saw >> i think some of the names are oversold to the downside, i think many of those names were but this move of netflix has been ridiculously fast do i like it yeah i think it's absolutely ridiculous just this calendar year the move has been extraordinary. >> think about where we came from, this is how netflix rolls. >> it is a violent moving stock, that's for sure. >> 2018 was really running even counter to the trend even until almost the end of the year. >> it started to go up 50% since christmas. that's absurd. coming up, check out shares of united airlines surging after releasing earnings we'll tell you what has shareholders so excited about this report right after the break. plus 24 days and counting. it is the longest government shutdown ever, and ceos on wall street are sounding the alarm.

we'll tell you what it could mean for the market. later, take a look at this mystery stock. this hot stock has doubled and one trader says it's about to get even hotter. he'll explain. we're ve flirom times square in new york city. much more "fast money" right after this ology makes it brilliant. the visionary lexus nx. lease the 2019 nx 300 for $339/mo. for 36 months. experience amazing at your lexus dealer.

you'this january 18th-24th, would like to say, "thank you." enjoy a free week of movies on us- from networks like epix, lifetime movie club, hallmark movies now, and history vault. just say, "show me movie week." that's a full week of your favorite hit movies on your tv, online, or on the go with the xfinity stream app. [shouting] it's all on us, and it's all coming soon. you've got some serious watching to do. welcome back to "fast money. united airlines soaring in after hours trading thanks to strong first quarter earnings guidance. phil lebeau is live with more.

>> reporter: hey, melissa, it's unusual to see a stock move this much after an earnings report, especially an airlines stock look at these numbers from united three reasons the stock is up 6% 241 a share, way, way above the analysts' expectation of 204 a share and 70% above what they earned in the fourth quarter of last year of $1.40 a share another reason, look at the numbers within the numbers passenger revenue per available seat miles up 5% on the high end of their guidance. most analysts were expecting it to be up 4, maybe 4.3% when you look at their profit margin, they have grown it by 90 basis points this is one more proof point that the company's strategy of those midsize routes, adding those to their hubs in the middle of the u.s., chicago, houston and denver, that strategy is paying off and one more reason why the stock is moving higher, look at the guidance for the first quarter earnings $1 a share is united's guidance. the estimate coming into today

was for 84 cents a share all of this is what we're talking with oscar munoz tomorrow morning about he is our guest exclusively on "squawk box. we'll talk about clearly what blowout numbers for the fourth quarter and positive guidance for the first quarter. >> you got united's report in the guides ans aance and you'veo compare it to delta and they're so different why do you think there's such a differential in what they're guiding? it's almost like a tale of two different industries basically. >> reporter: yes and you look at their strategy and also you look at where delta is coming from delta was a little more aggressive in terms of its guidance going into the fourth quarter. now they're going in the opposite direction in terms of being a little more conservative in the guidance they're putting out there. it doesn't mean they can't exceed their guidance. passenger revenue of flat up to 2% they may well exceed that in the first quarter but they are not

going to get caught saying what they did in the fourth quarter and say we'll be up 3% to 5% now we'll be up 3% that really hit the stock. then when you look at united, remember this strategy of adding more flights to these midsize cities, those are high-yield routes united was underserved in those markets. that's starting to pay off. >> phil, thank you phil lebeau from atlanta for us. guy adami, where do you trade this >> we talked about delta about $45 being a level it basically bottomed out in. i think august of 2017 or so, traded against 45. that's proven to be right. the stock also went from 63 to 45 in about a month and a half so clearly these names have just been overdone to the downside. in valuation, i still think delta works. maybe united you get a little more bang for your buck at this point, but i think delta can guide higher the guidance for delta, they guided full year $10 to $12. you can drive a semi truck through that but a lot of people

will have to play catchup in the airlines >> i tend to be with you in terms of which one do i go to now and it would probably be delta. i know what phil just said about we don't want to overdo it, but boy, it was terrible it's terrible relative to what everybody was expecting. they were looking at 94 cents. united is clicking and doing the right thing, going to the right cities where they're getting better margins >> so the top one is american airlines, they have a 25% market share at reagan national and then southwest is 15%. delta is 10% but jetblue doesn't even show up on the radar spirit airlines doesn't even show up on the radar there. >> look, if you get beat up because of the government shutdown in the airlines, that's a one-off. it's not like other businesses that will see that revenue coming back. it's all about valuations for the airlines if you think delta is basically

a $62 stock, that's if we're not in a recession otherwise these airlines are still -- this is with what happens. they get priced as if the economy is in recession. they're kind of like the banks on this. i think also how low the bar was going into these earnings. united is down 5% on the year. it's underperformed the s&p by 800 basis points so it doesn't surprise me to see i think sentiment is still negative on the airlines. >> i'm melissa lee you've watching "fast money" on cnbc he's what else is coming up on the show >> the government shutdown. >> the shutdown. >> shutdown. >> shut down government. >> wall street is starting to raise red flags, as the government stretches past its 24th day of the shutdown it feels like there's no end in sight. is the d.c. chaos about to creep into the market? we've got those details. plus -- fast food stocks are sizzling and there's one name that's doubled in the pastyear that the traders think is about to catch fire. we will explain.

there's much more "fast money" after this everyone, look at your phones. the design thinking, the digital engineering, security, blockchain, and we will be first to market! yes. when we do we launch? unfortunately, in 2 or 3, hours. why the delay? cognizant is helping banks use digital technologies at scale to advance speed to market.

we have got a news alert on snap the stock is shooting higher after hours before turning lower. it's now down 2.5% let's get to julia boorstin in l.a. with the details. >> snap just filing an 8-k with the s.e.c. in which it revealed two important pieces of information. one is that tim stone, the chief financial officer and principal financial officer notified the company of his intention to resign and pursue other opportunities. this is notable because he was a big hire and he just joined the company in may so a big blow to lose him. his background was at amazon secondarily, the company also saying that it is providing some

guidance for its fourth quarter and full year 2018 financial results saying we expect to report revenue and adjusted earnings results that are slightly favorable to the top end of our previously recorded guidance ranges for each so the company is reporting earnings on february 5th and this news comes ahead of that. >> slightly favorable. okay, julia. >> and they provided guidance, so this is indicating at the higher ending of that range. >> julia, thank you. julia boorstin in los angeles. first of all, it's never a good thing to hear that a cfo of all c-suite positions is resi resigning such a short time after he joined the company. what do you make of this >> i think in the case of snap, they have had a retention issue. i think they have had a lot of turnover in the c suite and this is the issue people don't really know in a world where there's a lot of competition whether these guys have the ability to grow and they're still burning cash to me this is a stock that

continues to be a no touch i don't know that this has to be a burning fire out of control but there was enough there. >> stock is down 6%. >> i was quickly going to say this the reason why snap isn't lower than $5 is facebook has had so many issues the last few months. when facebook gets itself on solid footing and can re-energize itself, i think snap will be a lot lower. i think facebook lows are why snap still has a pulse. >> plus the short interest is still 25%. i'm still long snap. it's always darkest before dawn. it's pretty damn dark. >> what makes you want to be long >> for me it was always a flyer. i thought they were going to get taken out. i thought it would be so much more than it ever has wound up being so i've lost faith in it, but i'm still long it. >> if you've lost faith, why don't you cut your losses and take your money where you can make money.

>> i let winners roll and losers roll i take the losers and spin it out and buy a flyer. this was a really expensive option call for me and ended up getting cut in half. >> if that were the case, you would have jettisoned me wall street is starting to raise warning flags. here's what the delta ceo had to say earlier today. >> we're not taking sides on the debate, but we need to get the business moving again. one of the other issues to us is that we're seeing a reduction in revenues in the month of january. not huge, but about $25 million due to the fact that government contractors and some government officials are not traveling the way they would anticipate because of the shutdown. >> also, jpmorgan's ceo jamie dimon warning of the economic ramifications on the company's media call this morning saying we need good government policy to help the economy and the shutdown is not going to help the economy. someone estimated if it goes on

for the whole quarter it can reduce growth to 0 will the shutdown eventually reignite stock market selling at this point, grass orks in to, i cycle? >> i think the shutdown is a tradeable event. gra granted, this is the longest one but ultimately it's going to be a buyable event once it gets cleared up i know it looks darker and darker like snap, but i would -- >> wow, that's quite a parallel. i hope we're not in the same situation. >> you know what's really funny is i thought jpmorgan -- was he being facetious? i thought jpmorgan came out with the report that said it was going to shave off gdp i don't think it's going to be as dire as people think it is. our next guest says the government shutdown is just a sideshow let's welcome back joe zeidel who was just named blackstone's chief investment strategist just

yesterday, right >> that's right. >> congratulations, joe. >> congrats. >> well done. >> investment strategist we had no idea okay so what's fascinating to me is that there's so many economists -- oh, you're wearing matching ties. that's cute. >> brothers from another mother. >> some economists say it's going to have this impact on gdp for every week that goes by. those same economists came out and were so -- so precise in terms of the impact of the tariffs on the u.s. economy, which turned out to be not quite right in that they looked at it in a very narrow way they didn't also calculate the sort of ripple effects, the impacts on sentiment, the impacts on business spending, the impacts on consumer spending and sentiment, so how do you view the shutdown? >> we don't want to make light of the impact this is going to have on any one individual because there are 800,000 people going without pay right now. so from an individual perspective i don't want to discount that whatsoever but to put it into the broader

perspective, the workforce in the united states is 161 million people so we're talking about half a percent, 50 basis points workforce is being impacted here, but they can file for unemployment claims and other things i don't see any real lasting effect because people will get paid and made whole which is a different issue than something like the trade war where you do have to consider those second and third order effects. what's going to happen is when the government shutdown is over, people will be made whole on their paychecks. if we do see a drop to first quarter growth or if we see some sort of hit to corporate profits, i think the second quarter we're going to see all that coming back and more. >> so, for instance, if somebody is not going to spend on a vacation or not going to spend on a meal or sweater in the first quarter, they're just going to do the same thing in the second quarter >> maybe me pothey postpone tho purchases, but these are also the worst case scenarios, which it's fine to project that out and uncertainty is the enemy of growth here. but that's assuming this

shutdown does not end. i think there's a lot of things that can bring it to a conclusion and one of them is pain points. the most we see those pain points at tsa check lines and other areas, i think it's going to incent both sides to figure out some sort of solution. >> we may be getting to that point. joe, you think there's a rally on our hands how high do you think we'll go in the markets and what could derail it? if there was the one thing that you as the chief investment strategist at black rock -- >> blackstone. >> excuse me, could point to and say this is what could derail it, what would be be >> it is first and foremost the trade war. we need to get that wrapped up in order to have any type of meaningful rally in the stock market now, i'm bullish i think that the market is going to be up 15% in 2019 that was in our ten surprises that we put out on january 3rd even a 15% rally from the end of the year only gets it to 2875 on the s&p 500, which is still below the september 20th peak. so we do look for -- we are

bulls. we think the market will head higher, but the trade war is the one thing that's still holding us back here i think it's an area of concern that has got to get resolved in our view, it does get resolved sometime in the first or second quarter. brexit, there's other things again, i think it contributes to policy uncertainty, but if there's a silver lining to the policy uncertainty is it probably keeps central banks more dovish. that was a conversation you and i were having offline a little earlier. if you look at the global economic certainty index, it's at an all-time high. that means central banks may be more dovish. >> which is good for your odds of a 15% return. >> absolutely. >> joe, great to have you with us congratulations on your new title, very impressive >> so 2900, i can do math because i'm a little -- i have my application on my iphone.

to get to that number, 17.5 multiple, earnings have to be about $165 i don't know i mean it doesn't -- it seems like a stretch to get there. you can maybe argue the multiple should be higher but i don't know why in this environment the multiple should. so it's aggressive i'm not saying he's wrong but it's hard for me to wrap my head around that. >> the key is the negative feedback loop that's been at least for the short term broken by the fed stance. we've had reaffirmation today in fact they seemed to take a step back and add some consistency to the fed tone here. so while i do think s&p earnings will be under pressure at least relative to the 7% growth it's targeted, to me it does feel like the market is still trying to short cover it does still feel like the pain trade is higher for the s&p, although i don't think it needs to be a straight line here and i think we're at key resistance. >> i think the idea of resolution in terms of the trade war, that is huge obviously. and the resolution in terms of

the government shutdown. that combination itself, last night we talked about it i think 20% was way too aggressive in terms of the analyst last night sitting next to me. 10% looks better to me that doesn't seem like an extraordinary number if we can get this resolved. still ahead, tilray shares down 17% for its worst day in months why are investors passing on tilray we will explain. plus, fast new stocks on fire we'll tell you which name one traderersa he ys is about to see a bigger breakout. much more "fast money" after this en though i live with a higher risk of stroke due to afib not caused by a heart valve problem. so if there's a better treatment than warfarin... i want that too. eliquis. eliquis is proven to reduce stroke risk better than warfarin. plus has significantly less major bleeding than warfarin. eliquis is fda-approved and has both. what's next? reeling in a nice one. don't stop taking eliquis unless your doctor tells you to, as stopping increases your risk of having a stroke.

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welcome back to "fast money. shares of tilray getting slammed down 17% as the lockup period from its july ipo expired. the stock plummeted and is down a whopping 70% since then. so what happened to the stock? remember just last week, i think it was friday the stock was up 20%. >> and privateer is the big gorilla on this one. excuse me, my pen cap just flew off. if you look at the big ipos the last couple of years, it's all about cap structure. lockups are things you need to continue to follow it's a technical story if you look at the entire cannabis sector, what's very

interesting is that as of jan 14th, 15th, 2018, it's down from a year ago despite the legislation and all the strategic deals. they're now cutting consumer and wellness deals along with the pharma deals so the company is doing the right things the valuation has never been easy to explain. and the shares supply or the short squeeze that's out there is what's driving shares right now. >> and this group is going to be volatile by its nature i'm not long tilray but a lot of stocks have to fight to get back to their october highs i'm still in them. i believe that the future will be extremely bright for all of them, so i think you've got to own a little bit of all of them to stay in the game. >> well, if you've got the munchies after this last segment, you're in luck because we are moving right into fast food fever earlier today on "power lunch" we spoke to the ceo of domino's pizza about the strength of the consumer from the conference in

orlando. >> what we see here in the u.s. is still a really strong consumer unemployment is still very low we've had good wage growth, you know, across the u.s. economy over the course of the last couple of years. we haven't seen any slowdown in consumers interest in ordering pizza and ordering it from domino's. >> and chipotle's ceo was also at the conference. shares of that stock have doubled in the last year and he assured investors that consumer demand was still healthy. >> our store counting is just shy of 2500. if anything, the number one concern from consumers is give me more convenience, give me more access. as we continue to open new restaurants, our economics are best in class. >> and of course this happened last night president trump welcomed the clemson tigers football team to the white house after that college football championship win with a banquet of burgers,

pizza, french firies from some o the biggest fast foot companies. is the fast food fever catching on we thought we'd play a little game of "hot or not. i think it's fairly self-explanatory guy, we'll start with you. hot or not on chipotle. >> hot or not. >> if you're hot, you like it, if you're not, you're not. >> really? okay i would say not. a lot of people say it's a recovery story well, it has recovered the stock has absolutely recovered. it was -- the 52-week high last year was 530 maybe we touch that. they report in february. they're one bad piece of lettuce from going down another $100 valuation is a bit -- >> it's true >> i mean it's -- >> new ceo

this guy is doing an outstanding job, came from taco bell. >> valuation, valuation, valuation. >> are you saying you're hot >> no, i'm not either. >> here's the issue with chipotle to push back i would say valuation has never been the issue for this company it's certainly been that bad piece of lettuce you're referring to, but the company has traded at a premium because it's been perceived and for now they have earned back the trust at least of that organic and wellness group or the folks that want to ease healthier. >> you're hot. >> i'd rather be not on this one. it scares me, because i have a family of six. sometimes you go for fast food my kids are just as neurotic as i am about that bad piece of lettuce that guy is looking for, so i'm probably -- >> and if you go to fast food, that's a little spendier right there. >> it's a little spendier. >> do you feel better about eating organic fast food that is going to be equally -- >> so it's a fair point. i think my fast food revolves

around pizza versus burgers and things it's less of a risk. >> let's move on domino's -- domino's, tim, are you hot or not >> i tell you what, i'm not hot. and i'm not hot on domino's simply because i think the international story, which was once the exciting part of this and earned them a major premium multiple to the peer group i think thaz slowhas slowed down. i think the change in management is fine, it's almost seamless. based on where we are with labor costs and headwinds, i don't love this valuation. i don't need to own it right now, so i'm not hot. >> they have been investing in digital for a long time, which has really brought their costs down. >> they were the original app developer when it came into fast food ordering. i was a big fan of patrick doyle. he's no longer there the stock has rolled over right after patrick left, regained those highs. i think tim brings up the most important thing, labor costs all of these companies have a headwind i would be a seller of all of

them not to give it away not on this one too. >> see, first of all, i work there, as you know. >> i feel like you're going to be hot. >> i'm going to be hot you haven't seen the bounce in this stock. >> is that a sizzle there? >> 26 times is not ridiculous valuation and i think there's a chance in earnings, i believe, in mid-february where this gives you a little rally into that earnings you have a month or so until then i think it goes higher so i'm hot. >> mcdonald's. pete, hot or not >> hot, red hot. easterbrook is the man who's completely changed this company. we talked about it technologywise for a long time that's mobile, that's kiosks, that's changing the menu around. he's done all of that and changed the quality of the beef they're using. there's a lot of great things going on by the way, the remodel of the 14,000 stores or whatever the number is is unbelievable and

how fast they are able to do it, i'm hot. >> are you still in it >> i'm hot i think the company in terms of their intrinsic value of that brand, their global positioning, that footprint and some of the asset values means i think this is a very undervalued stock, even though the multiple is not cheap. >> may i ask a quick question. the white house, how many security stations -- think about this we bring food in here, it gets cold lickety split in the white house, those big macs must have been frosty cold. >> how do you know they were big macs >> because he said they were. >> i believe that they were whopper -- i saw pictures of whoppers. >> they had both >> bipartisan fast food. >> it had to be cold is my point. >> maybe they nuked it. >> no nuke. >> anyway, starbucks, hot or not, grasso. >> a big part of their story was china growth if china growth is showing, then you've got to translate that to starbucks slowing. although technically the stock

looks a little appealing to me, but the china growth for me, i'll still a little worried about, so that overcompensates for whatever i'm seeing in technicals as far as a positive setup. i would be a not. >> by the way, these guys belong in that companies with pricing power. i'm hot, to be clear starbucks does whatever they want with prices and get away with it. same-store sales continue to be hided. >> trump provided a buffet that included wendy's, burger king and mcdonald's. ge shares flipping today after the analyst that called its recent rally said buyer beware into earnings. plus, it's a high stakes bet on the markets that could make one trader $200 million in the next two years, but there's just one cah.tc find out what it is when "fast money" returns his steinway, which met a burst pipe. so grant met his insurance: you are caller number 12. which didn't quite cover the steinway. but what if he'd met pure insurance?

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welcome back to "fast money. jpmorgan sounding the alarm on general electric today this note is from steven tusa, one of the first analysts with a sell rating on the stock two years ago. he did upgrade the stock to a neutral but is issuing a warning ahead of the earnings report calling the stock's 30% move off its lows nothing more than a head fake. so should investors stay away from ge? he has gotten it right for so long. >> he's been right, it had a nice little bounce it was short covering for a lot of guys attacking the stock. i can tell you today i was out of puts that i had owned for a long period of time.

today i bought back in because i think he's right he talks about is there a silver bullet is there something out there that can save them right now a lot of analysts are saying yes. he's saying no, he doesn't quite think that the numbers are there that add up to make this right so for that reason i think it does fall back and we should see numbers that might not be as impressive as everybody thinks they might be. >> i think the power business is obviously the business we need to get a better handle on. nothing is going to turn around overnight. i think the stock would probably rally if it was a reasonable number if the number is 10 billion itself, i think that would be great news. >> is this larry culp's first quarter as ceo >> was it pete pessimism he had an amazing call but what's his price target? >> $6. >> he had such a tremendous call that now with it rallying so hard off that low, you kind of want to cash it in

he doesn't want to get too cute so he says this. you cannot argue with them i'm still long the stock because i think we have reached that peak pessimism point in the market. >> all right still ahead, one trader made a massive bet on the markets this week that could pay out a cool $200 million we've got the details. plus, let's get a check on the cramer cram there's jim. talking about the one fang stock he says is cheap right now much more "fast money" still ahead. so why wouldn't you take something for the most important part of you... your brain. with an ingredient originally discovered in jellyfish, prevagen has been shown in clinical trials to improve short-term memory. prevagen. healthier brain. better life.

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welcome back to "fast money. a mega bet on the s&p 500 is making waves in the options market it stands to net one trader a cool $176 million. there's only one way to lose the s&p has to do something that it has only done four times in history. mike coe has the action in san francisco. mike, tell us about this trade. >> yeah, so this was quite a substantial trade yesterday. we saw a sale of 19,000 december 2020 2100 strike puts for about $93. so someone is selling insurance on the s&p against a dliecline from its current level below that 2100 strike price which would represent a decline of approximately 20%. now, bear in mind we have seen declines of 20%, but think about how far out in time this trade goes it's about two years so if you take a look back to the 1920s, there have really

been only four periods where selling puts of that length of time representing a decline of that amount have really been a dangerous thing to do. one of those was the great depression, up to and into the great depression we saw significant declines in the s&p. the second was the bear market of the 1970s in the late '60s or 1970s had you sold these puts that would have been a problem. the final two times were much more recent. the dotcom rec, the tech wreck of the late '90s, 2000, that would have been a bad time to do this credit and the credit crisis any other time you would have been able to keep the money, $176 million, but you're ensuring $5 billion. >> the timing is interesting because it takes you to the end of 2020. 2020 is when forecasters for what they're worth are forecasting there could be odds of a recession so this could capture some sort of a decline in the face of a recession if those prognostications come true,

right, mike? >> that's certainly an issue, although we have pulled back a little bit from the peaks that we've seen it's interesting because warren buffett initiated trades like this after the credit crisis those were very good trades because the market had already pulled back a lot and the premiums were extremely elevated in this case we've seen a much milder decline and the premiums are not as elevated. someone is willing to take a decent bit of risk it takes about $600 million of capital to put up a trade like that. >> that wasn't you >> no, it wasn't me. we're not sure if it was warren buffett but this is something warren buffett has done in the past and he's done it in stocks he likes and the indexes as well it makes sense somebody of that magnitude would be willing to take the risk, especially out to 2020. >> for more options action check out the ll sfuhow friday at 5:30 p.m. eastern time. up next, final trades. i don't know what's going on. i've done all sorts of research, read earnings reports,

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final trade. pete. >> we were talking fast food earlier. mcdonald's this thing is going 210 in the not too distant future. >> tim. >> the easiest fang name to defend on valuation is google. get there. >> grasso. >> i love the stock, but you've got to take profits. netflix, sell it >> you see the craziest things here at the nasdaq there was a guy with one of those big snow plow shovels plowing the foyer out there. >> what are you talking about?

>> didn't you hear that noise? >> that was pretty creepy. >> see, listen >> oh, my gosh, you're right. >> of course i'm right >> xilinx. >> that does it for us see you back here tomorrow at 5:00 jim cramer starts right now. 5:00 "mad money" starts right now. my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market in summer, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. people want to make friends, i'm trying to make some money. my job is not just to educate but to teach and put it in context. tweet me@jim cramer. if you want to understand this market, the s&p falls and the nasdaq 1.71% wow.