we are live this morning from the city of london and westminster. here are your headlines. >> the house has spoken, and the government will listen it is clear that the house does not support this deal, but tonight's vote tells us nothing about what it does support >> the u.k. prime minister theresa may suffers a historic defeat in parliament for her brexit bill, which sparked a no confidence move from the opposition labour party. that vote will take place later

today. >> the results of tonight's vote is the greatest defeat for a government since the 1920s in this house this is a catastrophic defeat for this government. >> in terms of market reaction, the ftse underperforms in europe, while sterling stays positive after yesterday's job sell-off business saz they are intensifying contingency plans >> it's just become completely obsessed with this issue in a, frankly, doesn't have that much bearing on how we create wealth and how we share that wealth around the country >> e.u. leaders call for the u.k. to change its red lines on brexit as chief negotiator michelle barnier warns the risk of no deal is higher than ever >> brexit will remain a priority in the weeks to come however, at this time no scenario can be ruled out. it's particularly true the scenario we've always wanted to

avoid. that of a no deal. today ten weeks out the rick of a no deal has never been higher. >> and as the world waits on westminster, risk manager marsh tells cnbc the uncertainty is just a symptom of a much wider and deeper issue >> lots of populist political figures getting elected and sort of changing the agenda to be more protectionist, more nationalist, and as a result, weakening the multi-lateral bonds that were there. that's expected to continue into 2019 >> it is the morning after the night before welcome back to brexit end game. we are analyzing the fall-out from the stinging defeat british prime minister theresa may suffers that in the house of commons as she faces now a no confidence vote in parliament later today.

other more extreme alternatives include a no deal brexit, a snap general election, and a second referendum well, let's bring in steven in live from westminster. steve, i think it's pretty clear that everything is unclear, but what we have learned is the inner workings of parliament, how amendments can be used, how a vote of no confidence can be brought out in time for maximum effect, and also, procedurally how parliament works it's a regulatory mind field it's been working out how all of this has been used from the very beginning. spot on. gene is the co-founder of sen, and also famously campaigned it

continues to i think say very vociferously what it doesn't like, but it doesn't seem to know what it does want brexit will be a mess, though. >> it should be completely being front and center, and what they insure is this deal that the prime minister brought back wasn't going to go through parliament, and as you quite rightly say, the problem they're now faced with is what will get through parliament there doesn't seem to be any majority, and i think today in this vote of no confidence that the labour party brought forward, i think it will be knocked out. commentators will be expecting this to not be successful, so at least you can say general election is off the table, and it's going through that process of taking the different options off the table. >> gene, we can bring that to both sides, and as e.u. needs to do that at both moments. it's both sides of the party it's not helpful.

>> we had a brexit referendum, and we had an election in 2017 the last thing we need in 2019 is another election. >> i agree, because what is happening -- what's been happening throughout this process is there's been a lot of political game playing, and that's still carrying on that's not good for our country, and people can see it. they can see it. they just want to progress through the options and get to some sort of direction and travel >> you want a second referendum, don't you? >> i've never been completely in favor of it. >> again, that's another thing you don't need, isn't? >> i said it's a last option we have to go through all the parliamentary solutions, and if there isn't one, where do we go? we have to find somewhere to go. then you go back to the people for an instruction of where you go >> the people need to know what the answers to the question is the question of where will you come from on this process has to be so much more convoluntarily outed, doesn't it? we can't ask people do you want to be in or out of the e.u.

because they are now competing visions from norway to canada, from mrs. may's deal to something perhaps that's a custom tacked on to it >> that's why we have to go through the parliamentary process. if you knock off the table canada plus and there's no parliamentary majority for norway, then you are only left with remaining or leaving with no deal. i think you have to go through the parliamentary process first, whatever is left if there isn't a majority to get through parliament, then you go to the people. >> i want to just get your knowledge of your handy work i mentioned you were the founder of sen director's. moody's today saying they think some of the risks have been heightened the markets are taking it very calmly as well do you think no deal is more likely or less likely as a result of the events we're seeing >> i this i that we are going through an extension that's why markets vent really moved overnight. any of the solutions being put forward look likely would

require an extension, and the markets are cautious, and the saying is that going to be a short extension, is it going to be rep indication because even if it's no deal well, don't have the time to get all the legislation required through by the 29th of march. that would require a second referendum as well is that what you ultimately would like to see? >> i think remaining would actually require an active parliament to reverse the withdrawal act to get to remain. >> you can't see all they can see is the power strug lipg at the time remaining would have to be a remain deal. we couldn't go back. if you are going to get to people's vote, remain would actually have to have an option there that spells out what would change if we remained.

>> the e.u. wouldn't be amenable to that. our previous guest was pointing out, there are going to be parlg i wantry electrics come may this year as well. when i talk to the likes of dombrosdi and thn -- they never seem to say you really need to change they say, ah, well, it's disaffected on the fringe, and then mr. macron is saying is wrong, what have you >> necessity would say that. g yet behind the scene they are realizing that brexit is a heart attack to them, and you hear more and more voices saying why are the four freedoms indif

izible fictionist trade does not go with freedom of movement these voices are raising and being heard further and further, and as we see the change in the parliament and in the commission to the elections, those voices will be louder and louder, and they are very scared of it in the e.u. and the commission and parliament, and they would love the u.k. to be there and be part of that new changing union u europe >> sure, but that fear doesn't necessarily speak coming forward with any olive branches. we have that fear we would like to offer you a better deal you come on board and stay closer to us >> every conversation i've had across europe and i mean for the even the politicians in europe are saying we have not been asking for anything, and that is coming loud and clear, and that is baffling to me and to all the people in the u.k. who speak to people in europe why are the u.k. government not asking for more? >> is mrs. may then on the basis of what you just said the wrong person to carry on leading this

country? >> unfortunately, i don't think we have the time or the space to get someone else right now it's going to have to be mrs. may, and she's going to have to take her fingers out of her ears and start listening to parliame parliame parliamentarians because it looks like she hasn't been doing that we're looking at bonds around the world, but u.s. is doing pretty well. >> well, there's another conversation gene, we'll get you into studio. gene, cow founder of sen directors, ran the campaign or a huge part of it to take the government to task to give parliament a better vote you got what you wanted, and now look at the mess good to see you again. >> thank you >> good point. steve, thank you very much for that reaction from europe, would you believe? e.u. brexit negotiator nicole barnier said -- speaking to the european parliament, he said it's up to the u.k. government to reveal what it wants to do next, but the irish backstop must be a part of any brexit

agreement. >> translator: a brexit will remain an absolute priority in the weeks to come. however, at this time no scenario can be ruled out. it's particularly true the scenario we've always wanted to avoid. that of a no deal. today ten weeks out the risk of a no deal has never been higher. >> let's talk about mr. macron as well. the french president emmanuel macron has also been quick to weigh in, saying the disarray needs to be resolved >> translator: the british government will tell us we will try. at least i think that's what they'll do i do know them a bit we will try to improve what we can obtain from the europeans and vote again in that case we'll look into it. maybe we'll make some improvements on one or two things, but i don't really think so because we've reached a limit

of what we can do aa deal, and we won't just to solve britain's domestic political issues, stop defending european interests or they'll say we all take more time, and they will ask to have longer transition periods to renegotiate something. it will take more time, maybe straddling the european elections in order to find something else >> let's get out to sylvia who is with us live from brussels. sylvia, bhaets been interesting i think is in these reactions we've had from both leaders in europe and from members of the commission there seems to be a difference of opinion as to whether there can be an extension of the negotiation or not. missure macron suggesting that we could straddle the european elections in may with extended negotiations, but others like kiefer hoffstad have suggested that these negotiations will be wrapped up before the vote why the difference of

preponderance? >> it's for them to answer, but everyone is keeping an eye on the european elections that is very important for the europeans, and so it doesn't really matter if the deadline for the extension would be the actual vote, which is on the 26th of may or if it's in july when the european parliament -- the new european parliament speaks for the first time. what's important to take from the comments is really that they are concerned about the political timeline that we have ahead, and so an extension would unlikely go beyond that point. now, an extension as well has been one of the main topics of discussion this morning. we need to bear in mind that this would have to be a request from the u.k., for the european 27 countries could not do that by themselves, and as well, the e.u. as spoken to different

officials on the ground, and they told me that basically they would only accept an extension to the negotiations if the u.k. would have a clear position. that is really what everyone is demanding from the u.k. at this stage, via the european institution, via the european capital. they want to know what the u.k. wants to do next we heard it as well from michelle barnier, the european negotiator for the brexit discussions, the european parliament, and he also said, of course, that this deal that we have on the table is a good deal, and the europeans would only change their stance if the u.k. were to change its red lines. all in all, as i said before, the brexit -- it is really hanging in london and in the u.k. parliament. >> do you think the europeans are not listening when they ask for the red lines from the u.k.

side one of the issues that keeps on popping up is the ier incompetentish backstop. it seems as though one of the stumbling blocks is getting something legally binding, something in writing that effectively means the u.k. and ireland is going to be protected. the backstop suddenly comes into force. we don't have a hard border. why the europeans are reluctant to put something in writing. >> well, actually, the europeans would argue that they have done that those reassurances, those commitments are in the exit agreement which when approved is actually a legally binding document they've also repeated that as the irish backstop is only an insurance policy, and they repeated that this commitment has legal value and of the 27 european countries in a letter that the president of european commission and the european council set sent to the prime minister earlier this week the europeans would argue in that case they have already made those commitments, and the irish

backstop is only a safety policy that they have >> sylvia, thank you very much for bringing us the raeksz from brussels coming up on the program, we sit down with jeff curry goldman's head of commodities research, as he says he won't be hoodwinked by the global oil price sentiment this year, which is quite clear he suggests there's smoke and mirrors going on plenty more coming up after the break. (danny) let me get this straight.

after a long day of hard work... ...you have to do more work? (vo) automatically sort your expenses and save over 40 hours a month. (danny) every day you're nearly fried to a crisp, professionally! (vo) you earned it, we're here to make sure you get it. quickbooks. backing you.

i am a techie dad.n. i believe the best technology should feel effortless. like magic. at comcast, it's my job to develop, apps and tools that simplify your experience. my name is mike, i'm in product development at comcast. we're working to make things simple, easy and awesome.

>> we did did get the results of the vote european exquit markets will close. we saw reaction in sterling initially dropping sharply in a knee jerk reaction to the massive defeat, but then clawed back those losses rallying quite strongly, and here this morning we have seen that rally continue now, getting back to the move we are seeing this morning from equity markets, as you can see on the screen in front, we are seeing overall positive moves for european stocks, but some

divergence in terms of the different regions. we are seeing the ftse 100 underperforming this morning down about 30 basis points as i say, we are seeing continued firmness in sterling, so no doubt the move we're seeing in equities corresponds in large part to the currency moves. we're also seeing some underperformance from the dax which is oscillating between gains and losses at the moment oh, on the upside, we are seeing french stocks, italian stocks, and swiss stocks performing pretty strongly today. throughout the course of the last two years in reaction to any brexit developments, sterling has been the main way investors have expressed their view now this morning we are seeing sterling continue to gain versus the dollar up about 12 basis points at the moment to 1.2874 we've been discussing all morning what is behind that move and what this says about what market participants expect moving forward, putting it altogether, it sounds as if

market participate yapts now think a no deal scenario is a less likely thing when you stack up all the pieces. let's get over to u.s. futures and see how markets are looking to open up yesterday was a strong session stateside early on we saw sentiment boosted by hopes of further stimulus by the chinese. later in the session it turned into a tech story. netflix announcing price hikes this provided a boost across the tech sector. that led the nasdaq hire, but it also pulled the dow and the s&p higher looking at those major indexes,er looking at modest gains for the u.s. to start. modest gains for gold, put into context over the last year 2018 was a lackluster year for gold despite the fact that we saw massive risk factors come to this spot -- come into the spotlight over the year. gold did not perform now we are seeing evidence of

some performance coming through. certainly want to keep an eye on if it turns out to be a much more risk off sentiment. jeff >> thanks for that the mark carney is speaking at a committee evidence session. let's listen to what he is saying in october of last year there was a temporary transition by u.k. regulators in the event of a no deal scenario, and the debate approximate about this yesterday, the panel is pretty broad. it would be helpful if the discussions that had this asked the treasury about the power and managing the deal of brexit and if there are any additional powers thaw as a regulator would need in that scenario.

>> the majority of those that have greatest relevance to the financial community have been made there are a few remaining outstanding that that are important. county party and trade repository amendments, and an mdment with respect to contractual continuity, which i think this crosses over with your exchange with the ceo of the fca with dr. bailey, the this is relevant for firms winding up you know this, but just for the record the firms that are continuing the e.u. firm that is would have continuing operations, we could address with the temporary -- >> we're going to jump out of

this for the time being. very technical we will continue to monitor what he says there. i think he has already said his reaction by suggesting that the fx market has made its views clear and i doesn't have anything to add at this point. of course, we will continue to watch this presentation. let's just focus on commodities. oil has been unable to sustain the gains made overnight when crude jumped 3% on the back of news of further chinese stimulus the quote as can you see, were 60-86 on the brent crude 52.22 on wti the issue of over supply continues to dominate the broader trend for oil. let's get to the goldman sachs conference jamana >> i'm standing with jeff curry here he is the global head of commodities at goldman sachs, and he said to me there's never a dull day for commodities with that vein, jeff, thank you very much for joining us on the

show today >> thanks for having me. >> before we talk specifically about oil, i just want to talk about the broader commodities complex because last year was almost a year of two halves. first half of the year people very optimistic. there's reflationary all of that petered out. oil plunged. basic resources, et cetera where, how do you see 2019 playing out? >> well, i think we're back to the same starting place we were about late 2017. i think let's go back and talk about the sell-off that occurred late last year, and there's two ways to look at it one way is to say, hey, the situation deteriorated at the end of last year or the other way to look at it is all that exuberance we were talking about one year ago never happened that the world ended up looking a lot more midcycle than what we actually thought remember, we look at the rise. it all happened around the buzz of global growth that never occurred.

you have opec ready to cut production >> all right so let's pick up on the last point. opec cuts in production. we found out in december that they were looking to cut production of 1.2 million. we've seen a little bit of a rebound in the price of oil, but not really enough. should they cut more what is the problem? >> they're cutting you look at -- they had a huge increase in production in september and october and

november in anticipation to iranian sanctions. we have waivers that are expected, and they're bringing the supply off the market. it did leave it with 140 million barrels that need to be beaten through during the first half of the year we think that's likely to happen the up side for oil has a lot to do with the dislocation in pricing. you put the two together, and this is one of the biggest we've seen in a long time. >> it's all about pricing dislocation. the shape of the curve we talked about the supply side of things. we haven't talked about demand i think that is also one of the big characteristics that went on to define 2018 in the sense that people really had to reassess global demand outlook for this year and years to come how do you see the demand side of things playing out? >> let's get to that point that, hey, last year turned out to be more midcycle than late cycle.

we expected that big uptick in late cycle demand that never occurred you ended up with 1 .5 million barrel az day of demand growth last year. what's the crisis average over the last ten years 1.5 million barrels a day. what do you expect next year 1.5 million barrels a day. it's a relatively boring outlook. the question is why didn't you get the cyclical uptick? i think we're in a very different economic environment you don't have the durability of demand like we had before, and the chinese, they micromanage in terms of their economic policy >> just very quickly, we talked about gold being a safe haven play, weaker dollar. does all of that make you bullish on gold for this year? >> absolutely. we talked about fear in wealth and in gold. you had the fear factor. you looked at economic uncertainty in china

♪ did you know you can save money by using dish soap to clean grease on more than dishes? using multiple cleaners on grease can be expensive, and sometimes ineffective. for better value, tackle grease with dawn ultra. dawn is for more than just dishes. it provides 3x more grease cleaning power per drop, says and save money with dawn ultra. brand power. helping you better.

says. here are your headlines. british prime minister theresa may braces for a vote of no confidence after her historic defeat in parliament leaves u.k. politicians scrambling to figure out what comes next in the brexit saga. >> the results of tonight's vote is the greatest defeat for a government since the 1920s in this house this is a catastrophic defeat for this government. >> the ftse underperforms in european trading as british businesses say they are intensifying contingency plans e.u. leaders call for the u.k. to change its red lines on brexit as chief negotiator michelle barnier warns the risk of a no deal is higher than ever welcome become to our special coverage of the brexit debate ongoing, of course

tonight we have a no confidence vote called by jeremy corbin in the aftermath of what was described as a pretty historic moment for british politics last night. delighted to say the mp, but also the chair of the labour party. nice to see you. thank you for joining us can i just skip past the historic defeat. i'm not sure you're going to let me do that, but i'm going to skip thas pa that say what is jeremy corbin playing at this is politics at its worst tonight. shouldn't we be cracking on now and getting on with cross-party talks rather than a no confidence vote which she won't win? >> she will be cracking on with cross-party discussions, and negotiations two years ago rather than to allow theresa may to come forward last night as she did with such a deal that she had the biggest rebellion in the history of the commons where, that's the history. it's not like the worst defeat the prime minister has had in generations, decades it's the worst in the history of

the commons. it's such an important piece of legislation. of course, we should crack on with it. the natural step for the labour party would be to call for a vote of no confidence. we want -- let me tell you, we want a general election. we want a vote of the people >> when you go back to they say, too, we have one in 2015 we had another huge vote in 2016 we had an election in 2017 tell me your constituents are telling you they want another general election in 2019 >> tell you what people are seeing in the doorsteps of communities. not just like minded, but often, though, this -- the austerity measures which have been pierced upon communities, on individuals, on the most vulnerable, most needy we've got a situation where domestic policies have been just part of the back burner. we've got a crisis in. we've got a crisis in education. we've got a crisis in the public sector we've got more people lying in from the street. they need a deal

that's why it's -- that's why it's not -- they're not -- >> no, no, no. >> try telling the people in london who are now living in tents that these are gimz because they're not games. they're serious issues what we feel, we've called for a vote of no confidence in the government to try and trigger an election i think that's really important because that's to get rid of austerity. that's the reality of it >> it doesn't appear in many quarters, let's agree to differ. what there is an appetite is for praying mattism from politicians. you quite interestingly said mrs. may should have done this now she's doing it will she get cross-party what is the price of cross-party support? >> i think it's -- listen to what theresa may actually said last night she said she will seek cross-party support from senior parliamentarians across the commons. what it means to suggest this morning that there are only people that she will speak to, people who have a common view of

her deal her deal is history. it got beat last night she got walloped any decent, honest, respectful person, like theresa may, any prime minister who got the walloping she got last night should step aside. she really should step aside she should show humility and basically blamed everybody but her. >> if the prime minister drops her -- one of her key red lines and aqcuiesces and does that sa that's close to meeting our success? >> we've got a clear position on where we want to be in brexit. if theresa may wanted to have constructive discussions on athe way forward to try and resolve this position, i think we're a million miles away there her position, and i please the vote because you see how she was supported last night in the commons.

we would have to see what the negotiations would be, and we would have to put forward our plan that would be putting it out for months and months and months, if not more than any with regards to where we've seen a fair brexit. the brexit on jobs, the brexit on the economy, a customs union, the benefits from the single mortgage to mention -- >> it is a support amongst 100 labour mp's for a second referendum is mr. corbin, if he loses this vote tonight, is he amenable to that idea? would that be one route for him? >> what you have to accept is jeremy corbin, is he the leader of the party, and what we've got in the manifesto is an acceptance to resort the referendum we've got a notion from the conference in liverpool, which sets out stage by stage what the labour party would be quite transparent and what we see is that we will not back theresa

may's -- what she would come to parliament, her deal, what she brought back last night. that's happened. we will now put in a vote of no confidence i think we've got a chance, you know we've got a chance because there's 100 tories voted against their own government last night. >> my understanding is those 118 thorough conservative party coming from labour >> i think that's right, but i think the point i make is it's volatile we think it's the optimum opportunity to put forward a vote of no confidence or for a general election >> it's been a real pleasure meeting you where. >> by the way, i'm told it's north umberland tie. >> i'm very proud of it. >> so you should be as well. i'll look forward to coming to that part of the world chairman of the labour party, mp for warnsbeck. back to you. >> thanks very much, steve i want to bring you the latest data on u.k. inflation that's just come through inflation has cooled in the u.k.

in december, could, in part, to falling gasoline prices. now, compared -- this is consumer prices rose 2.1% year-on-year in the month that is a slower rate than the 2.3% registered a month earlier, and marks the lowest rate since january 2017 now, bear in mind this did match the expectations according to the latest reuters poll, but we are seeing reaction in the market in reaction to this data coming out u.s. has extended their losses that you can see on the board there. the ten-year is currently trading at 1.317%. the two-year also reacting as well as the 30-year. really across the curve we are seeing yields rise in reaction to this data that suggests underlying domestic inflation pressure is weak now, we would flag as economists have pointed out in the past, the upside to inflation being subdued like we're seeing here is that the b.o.e. can afford to potentially remain on the sidelines until the brexit uncertainty plays out.

just bear that in mind overall, u.k. inflation in the u.k. -- u.k. inflation has cooled now, i want to get over to sterling as well check out how sterling as well as the broader currency markets are fairing this morning now, sterling throughout the course of the morning has been firming. right now we are seeing it up about 20 basis points to 1.2883. of course, yesterday in reaction to the vote we saw some sharp moves in sterling initially going lower in a knee jerk reaction to the result, but then rallying, and now this morning we are seeing that rally continue euro versus sterling is around that .88 number, and sterling versus the yen about 1.39. there's a look at sterling crosses for you. let's get into equity markets. this morning it was looking like a positive picture across the board. now in the last minutes of trade we have seen a downturn in ftse shares as well as dac shares

looking at the ftse first. we are seeing stocks there trade down about 60 basis points remember, a lot of those export exposed stocks are reacting, in part, to the news that we're seeing in sterling ftse 100 underperforming dax underperforming. overall, european stocks are trading marginally higher. about nine basis points at the moment jeff >> thank you for that. let's go back to bank of england governor mark carney he has been speaking at a treasury select committee evidence session largely, about the stability report, but he has made some comments, i think, that you might find interesting he is, of course, as you would imagine, with mark carney tried to stay away from the issue of the forecasting interest rates.

robert lighthighser told senators he will extend the application process to the latest round of levies on $200 billion of chinese goods let's talk about the prospect of m&a moving forward from here there is, of course, the suspicion that what we saw in equity markets at the end of last year and some concerns around volatility running through the early part of this year that we're going to see a slowdown in m&a activity simone joins us, global co-head of financial sponsors coverage

at ubs good morning to you. >> good morning. >> if i could just dwell on brexit for a moment, to what extent do you get the sense and the feedback from businesses that you talk to that this uncertainty around the brexit outcome is actually keeping companies from making decisions about m&a activity or about actions they may be considering to spin off business units >> now, what we have seen on bricks breck it was in the beginning of the year because of the weakness, production is seen as quite benign. this is the end of this. can we see this going even lower. there is a lot of wait and see attitude from, again, making perspective, this is not a very good outcome.

it's available in the debt market, and i would argue still relatively cheap there is a bit of fear of looking stupid am i going to benefit from waiting and see what the end game is going to be, and then maybe is it time to buy things for valuation? valuation are coming down, but, still, nothing has been a bargain in the marketplace >> take a point of the fast-moving markets and know what has been stuck in the trade, even if it is a long-term exposure we've had a ton of emails this morning. it's unhelpful for illiquid assets do you agree that illiquid assets is where you are going to see the pause button really applied until there is certainty on the timing now of brexit? >> i think if you see illiquid

asset you are waiting. you don't need to. you don't have market to market. you don't have a public valuation. it's consistent with what they were saying dwrerl why now if you don't need to you think you can wait and see how this is going to pan out both in terms of valuation, but it's also impacting the real economy. how is this company going to perform? it's not totally decoupled for the yut come of this agreement both in terms of u k. and the rest of europe. >> we do see activity, then. are we increasing by going to see companies looking to go private rather than to go public that might be an increasing trend as people try to escape some of the volatility and the impact of what being public actually means >> that's the eye the financial investors that are -- valuation had not already indplatd as it used to be a lot of companies are still performing well, but just not

well understood by the market because also volatility now i think we're getting closer to the point where it's -- >> 2018 looked like a survival game where many managers of businesses were saying what's underperforming? we can't hold on to that business anymore every part of the business needs to perform in lock step. if it's not performing, then we need to carve it out some shareholders say that's not good enough, that part of the business needs to be reconsidered >> yes definitely i think we have seen it happening with some of the big companies in 2018, but the active inspiration is just becoming larger and higher in europe in general for the u.s. i think the wait and see attitude we've seen in the european world and in the u.k.

will need to disappear >> it doesn't just -- i just want to very quickly ask you before we wrap up just ask you about china, because i think we're very focused on the trends for flow in and out of china at the moment it does seem as though flow out of china has slowed considerably is this just about the trade spat, or do you think that this is a trend that will continue even if we get a resolution? >> it depends on europe or in the u.s. i think in the u.s. definitely the debate and the trade protection we're seeing with the trump administration means that this law of china into the u.s. has been nonexistent that was in china actually last week everybody is focused on activity they're worried about their local economy slowing down, and they are looking at europe because they can't in the u.s. >> thank you very much for joining us for 2019 on deal front simonea, global co-head of financial sponsors kofrm at ubs. >> plenty coming up on the show.

find out why one risk manager sees a funding gap in future global infrastructure spending more on that when we return. (voice) you know what you're doing right now? (danny) impressing the heck out of me. also, giving a shih tzu an updo. pet care ain't easy. 12 hours? 20 dogs? where's your belly rubs? after a day of chasing dogs you shouldn't have to chase down payments. (vo) send invoices and accept payments to get paid twice as fast. (danny) you deserve a treat. and by treat i mean cash. bacon-wrapped cash. josie...it's time to get yours! (vo) quickbooks. backing you. do i use a toothpaste that whitens my teeth, or one that's good for my teeth? now i don't have to choose. from crest 3d white, the whitening therapy collection with new spearmint and peppermint oil. it gently whitens, plus it has a fortifying formula to protect your enamel. crest. healthy, beautiful smiles for life. unpredictable crohn's symptoms following you?

for adults with moderately to severely active crohn's disease, stelara® works differently. studies showed relief and remission, with dosing every 8 weeks. stelara® may lower your ability to fight infections and may increase your risk of infections and cancer. some serious infections require hospitalization. before treatment, get tested for tb. tell your doctor if you have an infection or flu-like symptoms or sores, have had cancer, or develop new skin growths, or if anyone in your house needs or recently had a vaccine. alert your doctor of new or worsening problems, including headaches, seizures, confusion and vision problems. these may be signs of a rare, potentially fatal brain condition. some serious allergic reactions and lung inflammation can occur. talk to your doctor today, and learn how janssen can help you explore cost support options. remission can start with stelara®.

>> as worries of uncertainty in politics rise and the dramatic brexit vote, the other for the global economy is darkening. that's according to a new report from the broad economic forum and risk manager marsh well, ahead of the jamana sat down with president of global risk, john, and asked him to forecast the key economic trends for this year. >> some of the big global risks prominent are changes in geopolitics. you see the rise of nationalist agendas around the world and creating friction among states and weakening multi-lateral institutions another one on the short horizon is really cyber where you see in the executive survey cyber was number one risk in virtually every advanced economy and with

technology developments like ai, internet of things, it's creating a wider attack surface for cyber. on the longer horizon, the risks were prominent in this year's -- around the environment extreatment weather, climate change, says biodiversity, and then also critical infrastructure which connects to some of the other risks we think about how it exposes communities to greater climate change or cyber attacks if there's under-investment in infrastructure, and it's also intertwined with the geopolitics and the conflicts between states i think that's probably a high level summary. >> let's go back to some of the points, but i want to pick up on the first thing you mentioned, and that is the deterioration of this faith in multi-lateral institutions and traditional alliances. do you think that the u uni-lateralist approach that was adopted by the u.s. in 2018 is set to continue into 2019 and does that pose one of the biggest risks in your view

>> it's not just the u.s you look at here in the u.k., you have brexit and as an example, but then also around the world. brazil, italy, austria, hungary. lots of populist political figures getting elected and sort of changing the agenda to be more protectionist, more nationalist, and as a result weakening the multi-lateral bonds that were there. that's expected to continue into 2019 sfla how much of a macro-economic impact do you expect to have again, he remind exactly one year ago, the opening shots were fired in the so-called trade war we are beginning to see somewhat of a hit to financial markets and economic activity around the world. do you think that is going to continue in 2019, or do you see

that will grow in the form of tariffs, sanctions, further trade wars, investment restrictions, restrictions on the use of technology from a foreign country, and all of these tend to have a more depressing impact on the economy. >> let's pick up off the back of that we are getting commentedary on the bank of england governor he is speaking at a treasury committee selection. let's look at china first. he sees chinese annual gdp growth slowing to a high 5% level. the chinese efforts to tackle shadow banking system are leading to reduced lending he says the latest chinese trade data shows a fairly sharp adjustment taking place and trade tensions with the u.s. is leading to business caution.

variety of indications, chinese -- will slow further in 2019 fairly widespread range of questions he has had to feel this morning he was asked for his reaction to brexit instead of giving his opinion, he deferred to the fx markets and said he felt that the fx markets were signaling for you that the expectation of resolution would be extended and perhaps that a hard brexit is off the table at this point. plenty of cavats in a way. mark carney has expressed this view, but it would seem that he thinks the fx markets are at least saying that there is no likelihood of a hard brexit wrrks let's get to steve what do you think, steve >> i think it's extraordinary, isn't it, that the fx market and mark carney is saying one thing. we're talking about moody's an hour ago, and we're saying all risks are complete now, look, i think it's fair to say with our kwfrgs with various

politicians, various stripes over the last couple of days, that actually a hard brexit and remaining in the e.u., both look like very outside bets a second referendum looks like a very outside bet the way and the process of which the prime minister or indeed any other party get to some form of cross-party or majority in parliament for a solution that the e.u. will say is palettable, it looks as for tourous as ever. >> steve, thanks for the coverage this morning. we will see you again bright and early tomorrow morning that's in for the moment for us. i'm jeff >> i'm karen >> still >> that's right. >> stay with the channel worldwide exchange is coming up after this that's the early indication on the u.s. open. and sometimes ine. for better value, tackle grease with dawn ultra. dawn is for more than just dishes. it provides 3x more grease cleaning power per drop, which cuts through tough kitchen messes,

pre-treats laundry stains, and even tackles grease build-up on car rims. tackle tough greasy messes around your home, and save money with dawn ultra. brand power. helping you better.

hey, batter, batter, [ crowd cheers ] like everyone, i lead a busy life. but i know the importance of having time to do what you love. at comcast we know our customers' time is valuable. that's why we have 2-hour appointment windows, including nights and weekends. so you can do more of what you love. my name is tito, and i'm a tech-house manager at comcast. we're working to make things simple, easy and awesome.

>> we should find out if theresa may can hold on as the u.k.'s prime minister breaking news. eddie latchart reportedly winning the bankruptcy auction for sears, but will that be enough to keep the retailer alive? what is crack at snap? get another high-level departure. this time after only eight months frustration growing from main street to wall street now as the government shutdown enters its 26th day can you believe this mcdomd's losing a trademark battle over the big mac? that is a story that