>> we should find out if theresa may can hold on as the u.k.'s prime minister breaking news. eddie latchart reportedly winning the bankruptcy auction for sears, but will that be enough to keep the retailer alive? what is crack at snap? get another high-level departure. this time after only eight months frustration growing from main street to wall street now as the government shutdown enters its 26th day can you believe this mcdomd's losing a trademark battle over the big mac? that is a story that will make

investors grimace. it is wednesday, january 16th as worldwide exchange begins right now. ♪ >> sorry, i could not resist good morning, good afternoon, good evening welcome from everin the world you may be watching. i'm brian sullivan thank you for being with us. there are really three big market themes today for you and your money number one, obviously, that brexit vote. we'll get more on that in a few moments. the continued government shutdown, as we neat now in its 26th day by far the longest of all time. and another huge day of earnings we don't see that lightly. eight financial and bank stocks reporting before the open. they will be led by goldman sachs and black rock and, of course -- there you go ahead of all this futures are actually calm this morning we've seen sort of bigger moves in the futures the last couple of days. really the last couple of weeks. not today.

dow futures, s&p, nasdaq almost kplk flat. let's check, though, how the u.k. and mainly european markets are trading on the back of the u.k. vote as well, and we are seeing the ftse 100 in the u.k., again, react the markets may be anticipating this outcome down about .6% on the mainland, again, very slight moves and anything minor to the upside for germany and france what about in the currency markets? we have to look at the pound sterling again, actually a change it appears as though with all the guest that is we have had over the last couple of days and weeks that the market anticipated this outcome and has set itself up for it as always, we've got the best coverage in the business for this historic time and last night's brexit vote, and we begin where it all began with a resounding defeat for the u.k. prime minister theresa may. steve sedgwick live outside the u.k. parliament with manager on what happened and what will happen >> brian, resounding is only quite a solid word, but it doesn't even go near to say the

size of the defeat of mrs. may suffered last night. 118 of our own mp's, which is way more than her own wits expected voted against it's the biggest modern parliamentary defeat ever for any sitting prime minister as well there's 118 of her own mps on this vote as well. that's bigger than the 166 that ramsey mcdonald lost when he was trying to do a deal with the soviets back in 1924 brsh that's the kind of levels we're talking about. what happens next? well, within minutes of her losing this, the opposition said, okay, we have a no confidence vote in the prime minister if that was a no confidence vote, i don't know what was. anyway, that's going to take place this evening here in parliament now, labour will probably lose that because if all tory mps, and the ten from northern ireland vote with the government as well, then the government would get away with this one what happens next on the back of this resounding defeat from mrs. may's plan to get brexit back up and running?

of course, the clock is ticking. about 72 days left we're out of the e.u. on march 29th all other things being equal well, she said she'll reach across the floor she wants to hear what other senior parliamentarians on the other side of the divide have to say. does that mean she'll drop to a customs union, which will be even closer linked to the e.u., or does it mean that actually that she's going to listen to them and then carry on with her own path as well who knows where we go next people are saying a no brexit scenario seems less likely now because the parliamentarians have to reach together and try to find some sort of compromise. it's a right old mess. a bit like the shutdown really >> it really is, except you guys are working. you're just fighting we're not even working or fighting at this point steve, here's the question it seems like, though, from this side there are no two distinct different storylines number one, you have, obviously, still the brexit situation what will happen there as you said, maybe no brexit or hard brexit, whatever.

now you have theresa may's own fight as well. is it just us, or are there really now two distinct fronts where the fight will take place? >> i think mrs. may has been in this fight all the way through she lost the big vote on december 4th she lost another one on january 8th and another one on the 9th she lost another vote the day before this one. she got beaten out of sight yesterday on her withdrawal proposal as well the fact of the matter is she is still there. one fight that she has won recently is her own party had a vet on her confidence on her, and said, yes, we do think that she is the right person to lead us she can't be touched by her own party or challenges within the hard brexiteers for at least one year the challenge can only come from without or if she decides to quit herself many have said today -- i spoke to the chairman of the labour party. she said she should acquit if she wins tonight's confidence vote, one thing i can tell you that the labour party will keep on with confidence vote. she will keep on having that

fight unless, unless, she can find similar minds on the other side of the house and actually find some form of coalition of interest and then go back to the e.u. because she's got to go back to the e.u. quite soon and say this is what we've decided we're going to do. yes, she's in a fight, but no worse than she's been in perhaps throughout her whole tenure as prime minister >> it's been fight after fight after fight, and she is still standing, but what is the likelihood or what are people saying is the likelihood, steve, that she loses tonight, and perhaps we get a jeremy corbin-led labour party government-led government in the u.k. >> ah, well there are two things there. you say, one, if she loses well, there may be a confidence consensus. a lot of that had their moment yesterday. it centered on the tory ranks, and they don't want to see a labour deposit what is the likehood of a labour government if there's no confidence vote, we go to the country potentially if she loses and get a general election at the moment the polls don't show labour necessarily any

further ahead than the conservatives. will we see an end to the log jam? would we see a majority labour government that is notnecessarily a likel scenario >> steve sedgwick, we appreciate it thank you very much, buddy talk to you soon remember, there are two sides to the brexit story it's not just the u.k.'s position there's also the european union's position let's get reaction with that sylvia is live in brussels and joins us now on the cbc news looirn with this part of the brexit story sylvia >> good morning, brian well, there are three main take-aways from brussels from the last 24 hours. the first one being that the european union wants a clear position from the u.k. at this stage it's not clear whether the u.k. still wants to leave the european union or not. the second main point is really that there are growing comments and suggests that the u.k. lawmakers should consider

softening the brexit process this is a legal possibility that the u.k. have and it can unilaterally decide to stop this process at any point before the 29th of march deadline then, lastly, the third and main point out of brussels is really that -- and the extending article 15 negotiation is becoming inevitable. that is the process by which a european country is allowed to leave the european union and because the deadlock in the u.k. parliament continues and then those discussions and that process might have to be extended >> silvia, thank you very much now you have the news. let's get analysis and an action plan joining us now isso han, head of investment at hermes investment manager.

johan, thank you for joining us. you have prepared what you call the brexit mitigation project internally kind of a guidebook, i guess, for you and your clients as to what to do in every scenario given what we saw last night with the vote, what is now the next case of action for your clients? >> good morning, brian the next best course of action for our clients at this stage is do nothing because, to be honest, nothing is really resolved at this stage we're still facing a significant amount of uncertainty, and any form of knee jerk reaction for long-term rationale investors is probably going to be the wrong one until we know more >> okay. when you say do nothing, that means obviously keep sort of the course of action that you already had going, which is what under the current scenario what is the best way to invest in and around or protect yourself from the brexit story

>> well, one of the outcomes of last night is making the likelihood of no deal probably somewhat slimmer it's a tail risk with lower probability at this stage, so to the extent that investors have been looking at hedge protection, strategies around that, i would imagine some of those may well come off the table. if you are a long-term investor, you are looking for long-term opportunities, it's probably -- youare probably going to say a this stage some form of soft brexit or no brexit at all are the most likely outcomes in which case you might view the u.k. as an attractive possibility in terms of currency and the equity markets >> i got to tell you, you guys have a tough job it's a hell of a time to be investing in and around the u.k. given all that is going on what are you telling -- are your clients nervous? are they calling you saying why would i have any money in the

u.k., in the pound sterling? i simply don't know what the future of my own nation is going to be. >> yes, we are indeed at a time of great constitutional crisis here in the u.k., and that uncertainty is well reflected in the markets. certainly when you look at the volatility of risk assets. for the time being, i can see, however, the pound remaining range bound in that 125 to 135 range against the u.s. dollar. i'm not expecting a huge amount of variation there until the most -- the first thing that we really need to see to get progress at this point is either a postponement of article 50 or rejection of article 50 altogether the postponement, of course, requires our e.u. 27 current partners to agree to that. put the stopping article 50 altogether is in our own gift following that ecg judgment. >> yeah. i mean, is there one trade, one

play, one company to buy either here or in europe. is there a clear path that you see there in hermes? >> the biggest factor to remember about the u.k. equity market is that a good 65% of the market are essentially exporting companies, so if there's any sort of positive resolution from here a softer brexit than that envisioned by the original may deal or indeed no brexit at all, that is going to be optimistic for those exporting companies and one might well see some form of rally in u.k. equities. >> crossing just now moments ago german chancellor angela merkel weighing in on brexit she says, "we still have time to

negotiate, but the next move is up to the u.k. prime minister. the story is all throughout the day here on cnbc let's get back stateside where the top corporate story today has to be receivers. eddie lampart has won his bid to try to save the company. sources say that lampart won the bankruptcy auction for sears reuters reported that he improved his take-over bid to $5.2 billion by adding more cash and assuming more of sears's liabilities. lampart's offer was made to his hedge funds and would keep about 425 sears or k-mart stores open and potentially saving up to 50,000 jobs. now, sears and esl have not commented directly while it seems like good news for the company and its employees, keep in mind it's still possible this deal could fall apart a group of creditors has objected, and a judge must still approve lampert's bid. that hearing expected to be scheduled for later on this

week the fight for sears goes on. we go on ofafter this quick break. another high level departure to tell you about at snapchat full details ahead is it time to pop the champagne? why one market pro says the new year's rally hasn't mptecolely lost the buzz. we'll make that case as worldwide exchange continues your joints... or your digestion... so why wouldn't you take something for the most important part of you... your brain. with an ingredient originally discovered in jellyfish, prevagen has been shown in clinical trials to improve short-term memory. prevagen. healthier brain. better life. onmillionth order.r. ♪ there goes our first big order. ♪ 44, 45, 46...

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>> the sun somewhere out there on the horizon probably in the middle of the atlantic just get here now. meantime, here's how your money and investments are setting up today. stock futures are shockingly flat i mean, given the big brexit vote the government shutdown in its 26th day a flurry of earnings coming out. we're seeing dow futures up just 28 points. again, very early things could change quick check on the bond yield here for the benchmark ten-year note if you are in the mortgage market, you care about this because it loosely correlates through a mortgage rate and it is still pretty low. 2.73%. your big stock story today has got to be snapchat snap has cracked again shares down more than 7% right now. actually, nearly 10%, excuse me. it is on news that cfo tim stone is quitting the company after just eight months on the job now, in the statement about his departure evan seagull says

stone's departure is not related to disagreements with management or has anything to do with company accounting oddly, nobody asked. now, stone came from much man fair from amazon his departure is a string of high level executives to quit the company. snap does say that stone will stay on through the company's next earnings report snap did tell investors it expects fourth quarter earnings and revenue to be near the top end of its guidance. those numbers come out on february 5th, and, clearly, the stock down nearly 10%. the market focussing on why so many executives are quitting snap three other big stock stories to keep on your radar today include united continental airlines fourth quarter profits easily beating forecasts. it's scheduled more flights out of their hubs and reported a 5% jump in revenue per available mile that was at the key end of guidance top end of guidance. by the way, united ceo oscar munoz will be on squawk books for an exclusive interview atcle a.m. eastern stock number fwo, nordstrom.

retailer says same-store sales says department stores rose only .3% during the holiday season. ouch that is lower than most expected nordstrom also says year-to-date sales were below expectations, and they are due to higher holiday discounts and steps to adjust inventory that stock down this morning and, finally, another hit to already hard hit pg&e shareholders that stock is down another few percent, being kicked out of the s&p 500, and dow jones utility averages utility, remember, says it will file for bankruptcy and faces billions in liabilities for devastating california wildfires. up next, is there any sign the government shutdown will come to an end day 26 we'll give you the latest from d.c. later on, not loving it. the e.u. stripping mcdonald's of a key trademark. how could mcdonald's lose on the big mac? we'll tell you when worldwide chgeol on.

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yo the price of oil down about .4%. still one of the best starts of the year ever for crude oil. all right. the record getting longer. we are now entering day 26 of the government shutdown. there continues to be no end in sight. nbc susan mcginnis live in washington with more

susan. >> hey, good morning, brian. that's right federal workers now coming closer to a second missed paycheck there is a meeting at the bhous today, and it does include members of congress from both parties. after a debacle on tuesday, there's not much hope for a deal >> the house bipartisan problem solvers caucus meet with the president today, but hopes aren't high following tuesday's debacle when the president bypassed democratic leaders and invited rank-and-file democrats to talk. all of them declined where. >> this was supposed to be a bipartisan lunch, and the sheer fact that not a single democrat was able to show up is pretty telling. >> i'll meet with him any time he wants >> republican leader mitch mcconnell refuses to schedule votes on bills the house passed that would reopen some agencies. >> the senate majority leader could end this shutdown today. >> clearly, the democrats' priorities are way out of whack here way out of whack >> republicans are feeling the

heat trump thinks he seems impervious to people's pain, which is disgusting >> reporter: to mitigate the shutdown's impact, the white house has reportedly called back nearly 50,000 federal workers to resume functions, including food inspections, overseeing airline safety, and processing tax refunds, but they'll do it without pay. >> now, because of this impasse, both the house and the senate are ready to cancel recesses they have set for next week we brian. >> susan mcginnis, nbc susan, thank you very much all right. let's check this morning's other top headlines outside of the world of money and business and politics francis riviera with those francis. >> hi, brian good morning the u.s. state department is confirming an american was killed in a terror attack on a holtz in nairobi, kenya. gunmen stormed the luxury complex popular with westerners, killing at least 14 people and sending others fleeing for their lives. this morning kenya's president says all the "terrorists" have been eliminated. al qaeda-linked al shabab

claimed responsibility the president's pick for attorney general is back in the hot seat this morning for day two of his confirmation hearing. senators grilled william barr for hours tuesday with democrats zeroing in on his views of the russia probe barr vowed to protect the mueller investigation. if confirmed, he could be sworn in by mid-february a bombshell claim made in the case of a column bian drug lord with an associate alleging the drug king pin paid a $100 million bribe to former mexican president niato. el chapo's right-hand man testified that the alleged bribe was paid in 2016 a spokesman for the former president has denied the accusation guzman was captured in 2016 while he was president he is on trial in new york on drug trafficking charges if found guilty, he faces life in prison. there's all your headlines for this wednesday >> can you imagine somebody saying how much do you want?

$100,000 no >> 000's >> i got it in my pocket hold on. francis, thank you very much wow. up next, facing the fall-out theresa may staring down a no confidence vote in the u.k. after a crushing defeat to her brexit plan. we are headed back to london plus, the brexit boost can you, all you smart people out there, name the best performing market since the 2016 brexit vote? it's not us. it's not japan the answer may prize you tweet us your guesses at sully cnbc the big reveal when worldwide exchange returns ♪ returns ♪ for me ♪ (vo) here's a question. was it necessary to create a luxury car more teched out than silicon valley? with a cockpit fit for aspaceship. hang on. radar that senses things the human eye can't. busted. and the ability to make a thousand decisions

before you even make one. was all this, really necessary? what do you think? ♪

we will take you live to london straight ahead. breaking retail news eddie lampert winning his bid to save sears and some 50,000 u.s. jobs, but the fight want over yet. another high-level executive handing in his notice at snapchat and the market hates it the full fall-out as worldwide exchange rolls on. welcome back thank you for being with us here on cnbc. just about 5:30 in the morning

on a wednesday morning thank you very much for joining us >> we're not down a few hundred. on that joet the market currently has set itself up for the outcome that we indeed got that top story this morning is the brexit fall-out. you are looking right now live at westminster investors will be closely eyeing the u.u.k. prime minister theresa may as she will face a no confidence vote on her leadership later this afternoon. now, this comes after her brexit withdrawal deal with europe was overwhelmingly rejected by the u.k. parliament yesterday in a bigger dedpeet than even some of the most bearish people have expected let's bring in peter spiegel put this in context. a 230 vote loss.

i know it seems like that would be even wider than some of the worst projections on that vote >> as you said, not only more than most people anticipated, but it's the biggest loss any government has suffered on a major piece of legislation in history. normal circumstances, this would mean she would have to resign. frankly, there are multiple points in this crisis over the last through years, she's lost an election, she had her own party rebell against her, she's lost her deal today. any other prime minister in the history of the u.k. would have resigned by now, and, yet, not only sh is he going to survive this vote of confidence tonight, but there is no one emerging in either party as a likely prime minister jeremy corbin is disliked even within his own parliamentary party. there is no consensus county candidate within the tory party. we're doomed to keep marching forward with may and her plan, even though it was voted down

yesterday. >> why are you so confident that she will survive the no confidence vote? >> everyone in the conservative party, everyone crucially in the democratic unionist party. this is a small northern irish party that is getting her support. she's not formally part of the coalition, but in order to bring up her premiership to majority parliamentary lies in this northern irish party, the dp, they have both on the record said they will back theresa may. she has a narrow 13 vote majority in the houses of parliament there's no one in that 13 vote joort who is leaving the labour party has admitted that they don't have the numbers at this point. she marches on like the terminato terminator she keeps getting hit after hit after hit, and inexplicably, she and her plan keeps surviving >> okay. do you have kids peter? do you have children >> i lost your audio there for a second >> it's okay it was a weird question.

>> do i have kids? i do have two kids yes. >> i asked dpor a reason do you know the game chutes and ladders? you know -- >> absolutely. i played it as a young man myself in phoenix, arizona, yes. >> you go up and, then you go et to a point, and all of a sudden you hit that one spot, and you go all the way back to the beginning. that seems to be kind of where we are now if may survives, this no confidence vote today. have we gone back to square one? >> you would think you could think that you have hit that point, but the problem is we're in brexit la la land the e.u. this morning, michelle barnier, the chief negotiator for the european commission is saying, hey, we're open to new ideas. this deal we negotiated, this is it, guys

this is it there is no other deal on the table. may has said she's going to launch this cross-party negotiation consultation none of these ideas is actually going to pass muster with brussels. there is no other option than may's deal or no deal, and i think every day that passes the chances of no deal get closer and closer and closer, and i think for that reason -- >> it's called hard brexit >> and the -- it's rather surprising >> a lot of our viewers are waking up. i don't even know what that means. basically there's no deal. you just split i'm out. you walk out the door from the european union and you are gone. there's no deal. there is the deal that theresa

may tried to make, which obviously failed miserably yesterday. peter, is there there one or two things that could get done is there any middle ground what are the hang-ups here what do both sides want? >> you and i have talked about this you and i have talked about this repeatedly it is this bizarro issue of northern ireland that no, anyone that's followed british politics for 30 years have had to deal with because of the deal bill clinton reached. northern ireland politics, no one had to pay attention to it suddenly it's the only land border that britain has with the e.u. how do you keep that border open the only way to do it is basically to keep northern ireland in a same customs arrange am as ireland, but the fact of the matter is that is what killed the deal last night. no one wants to say that northern ireland has a separate customs arrangement, is a separate part of the u.k., has some sort of special deal with europe no one can agree with that

barnier said we cannot have a deal with britain unless there is some kind of backstop on northern ireland that prevents a border there it is the ven diagram does not cross over there is no way for the people here, the mp's here in britain who are objecting to get no backst backstop, and there is no way that the e.u. could accept a deal without a backstop. it's -- that's the real worry here >> coming down to northern ireland. >> other plans, but that irish backstop issue, that's the issue. >> somebody get bono on the phone. he will figure it out. peter -- >> prominent irishman. >> when you and i get over you are going down that chute. staying with brexit, markets around the world on a wild ride since the key vote we asked you earlier, can you name the best performing global stock market since june 2016 when the vote happened i didn't think so. it's brazil. with a gain of 83% in dollar terms. the u.s., though, by the way, second place our nasdaq up 42%. wow.

brazil, and then the u.s let's now bring in david katz, chief investment officer for matrix investment advisors where, we're not going to ask you brexit stock trivia. >> nice. >> how are you >> good. >> okay. we're leading with brexit. brexit has been our top story on this show for a long time. are you going to say it doesn't matter for u.s. investors? you can do that if you need to >> well, that chart really says it all you've had two and a half years of uncertainty about brexit. it's been very -- snoo worst december in 09 years we think stocks are really reasonable valuations. 14 and a half times earnings they really start to move higher even with some of the negative overhangs. if we get any positive news, i think stocks go up sfr here, and

the moral is buy companies that are reasonable valuations and turn down all the noise. >> i'm talking about -- i'm tired of talking theory. let's talk practice and try to make some money. at&t, why do you like it >> you are getting a 6.5%, 7% yield under ten times earnings they're doing well in terms of outlook. we think that their cash flow is going to be good their balance sheet is much better than people give them credit for, and you are getting it at a great price. this is one where you can put away we think you have 15%, 20% >> oxidental petroleum oil just collapsed stocks have collapsed. you see value. oil prices collapsed oxidental does very well the dividend is secure, and we think the stock easily is 20% or 30% higher we think oil prices are at a trading range this year. we're about 50 to 70 as that moves higher the stock has done pretty

poorly, even though the business and the management has done a great job. >> and abvi. >> the drug group is one of the best performing groups the last year companies like merck and pfizer, which we've had. they've been one of the most significant laggards of that group. they're going to have double digit earnings growth in 19. getting the stock sales ten times earnings >> stock down 17% in 12 months why do you think that is why haven't the market given abvi any more respect? >> they made an ill-fated acquisition and got back $5 million a year and a half ago and got penalized more than that was worth. >> real names that you own and have been buying, even if the face of brexit david, it was a real pleasure. thank you very much. >> thanks. let's get you up to speet on some of the morning's other top

headlines. sears chairman eddie lampert reportly winning his bid to save sears. reuters reporting he improved his takeover bid to roughly $5 billion adding more cash and assuming more of sears's liabilities. his offer was made for his hedge fund, and it will keep about 425 sears or k-mart stores open potentially saving up to 50,000 jobs keep in mind, a judge must still approve lampert's bid. creditors have objected, so another hearing expected to be scheduled for later this week. shares of snap are going to be your big stock story today. they have broken they're down 9% in the premarket. cfo tim stone resigning less than a year after taking the job. this follows the loss of snap's chief strategy officer and vp of content late last year now, in the meantime, snap says it does expect a report fourth quarter revenues and earnings near the top end of its guidance, but the market doesn't care focussing on the cfo leaving after just eight months. united continental airline getting a nice pop

beating on both the top and bottom lineses also issued a rather rosy outlook for earnings in 2019 by the way, you're going to hear more from the ceo oscar munoz. you can see him on ""squawk box."" an exclusive sbuinterview 8:00 m this morning it is mystery chart time don't you love it? you invest just $1,000 in this stock back in 2007, you would have $90,000 today can you name that stock? $1,000 into $90,000 overnight. first, it's like a scene right out of the movie "coming to america. >> see, they got the big mac i got the big mick we both got two all beef patties, special sauce, lettuce cheese, pickles and onions, but they use a sesame seed bun my buns have no seeds. >> mcdonald's losing a key trademark to one of its most iconic products, the big mac it's a real story. we'll tell you about it next

my mom washes the dishes... ...before she puts them in the dishwasher. so what does the dishwasher do? cascade platinum does the work for you, prewashing and removing stuck-on foods, the first time. wow, that's clean! cascade platinum. >> let's find out what elts you are going to be talking about today. the stories that are trending. let's kick it over to see what's trending we're going to kick it off with a big loss for the big mac an e.u. court stripping mcdonald's of its big mac trademark. this comes after an irish fast food chain called super macs changed the trademark and won.

or challenged it mcdonnell's says it will appeal the decision it only has to do with big mac in all capitaled they didn't lose the name of the sandwich, but it's not well known in ireland, so they lost the battle go for the football, stay for the weird vebding machines after unveiling a bacon end having machine, ohio state has another automated treat for students in pizza atm. it seshz up a hot cheese or pepperoni pizza in three minutes. the cost is $8 some good news if you are a human. a hotel in japan is laying off half its 243 robot workers because the robots created more problems than they apparently solved the luggage carriers didn't work in the rain or the snow because they're lazy robot conciere couldn't answer guest questions, and they could not photocopy guest passports. they are going to replace the robots with real human beings.

thanks, brian. up next, the three big themes that will impact your money today. we're going to break them down straight ahead later on, your mystery chart revealed if you invested in this stock back in 2007, $1,000, you would have $90,000 now what is the stk? eeme @sullycnbc we're back with the answer burst. so grant met his insurance: you are caller number 12. which didn't quite cover the steinway. but what if he'd met pure insurance? owned by members. he'd have met: lisa, your member advocate. who'd introduce him to gustav: leave it to me. a temporary address, temporary ivory, and help him get tickets to the mozart festival. excuse me, grant likes beethoven! uh, the beethoven festival.

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snoo investors will be closely eyeing the prime minister theresa may. she faces another vote tonight this one a no confidence vote on her leadership later this afternoon this afternoon it all comes after her brexit withdrawal deal was overwhelmingly rejected by the u.k. parliament. let's now bring in tina fordham, chief global political analyst thank you very much for joining us i mean, listen, here in the united states, this is a -- we've got our own shutdown to deal with. this is a difficult story to follow in simple terms, what's the next

step, and what does it mean for investors likely >> you are right the noise to signal ratio around the brexit story has meant that a lot of people very understandably just haven't really focused i suggest now is the time to focus the prime minister's brexit withdrawal got a pasting in parliament. a historic defeat. i don't think it can be amended. her political capital is much reduced. however, pair docksically, i do believe she will survive this no confidence vote, but the options from there are closing off you see the pound rallying today. why after this scale of defeat maybe seems a bit counter intuitive because the way investors are assessing the situation is that these developments are making brexit less likely. >> that's what i'm so -- i'm easily confused.

especially at this hour, tina, but that's what's so confusing we've had guests on the last couple of days who have said, well, it's the margin of the loss that's what matters if it's a narrow loss, then it doesn't matter that much if it's a big loss, it maernts a lot. it was a monster juicily large loss the biggest loss by a u.k. prime minister in modern history yet rrk the market seems to be reacting with a shrug. that's what i dmeentd. it's important to understand the tail risks have gone up, and a month ago this is what my take on the situation was the tail risks being either chaotic crashing out no deal brexit because, remember, if the u.k. does nothing, it leaves the european union on march 29th >> the other side of it being other outcome that is increase the probability of what i call never brexit now, markets have not really

started to price in the chaotic brexit scenario. there's still a hope against hope that the responsible adults running the country won't allow that situation to happen what we're probably seeing is that sterling and some of the u.k. names that are most associated with u.k.plc, probably have been hit a little bit too hard perhaps by the u.k. risk premium and anything now that happens that makes it look like brexit might be delayed or postponed or just not happen at all is going to be well received with that in mind in the miasma of possible outcomes and the kind of spaghetti of decision trees, market should look for an extension of article 50 because that will be the next policy option that would be perceived as good news in my view. >> wow it is a complicated story, but

you -- hey, listen, best use of the word miasma and pasta reference already this morning tina fordham of citi we appreciate you laying out it in simple terms. thank you very much. >> thank you >> let's switch back stateside now. futures are a little higher. like we just talked about, the market not reacting in a majorly negative way to the brexit news. let's talk more about the market setup when what we can expect with craig johnson, chief market technician of piper jaf ray, and we're not going to ask you about brexit don't worry. january looks like it's going to be up. >> yeah, brian historically so goes january, so goes the year. as i look at this market right now at this point in time, i kind of come back to some 1980s tunes, and i keep thinking about, you know, hold on

loosely. from -- >> 38 special. >> 38 special. we have this great relief rally. we're up ten out of the last 14 sessions we're up 10% off the lows at this point in time as i keep looking at this tape, the biggest question i'm getting from investors and traders is simply at this point in time is this more than a relief rally? are we going to have to come back are we going to have to retest the lows we had seen right before the -- on christmas eve do we need to come back and retest if you look back at history, history would say that about 50% of the time you do come back and you make what you call a double bottom low and you retest the lows you had seen earlier. as i look at the stocks, as i look at the overall averages at this point in time, a couple of things that i'm noticing number one, a lot of the advances in the stocks are happening on somewhat tepid volume i'm also noticing that some of the money flow into the stocks is somewhat weak that in my mind increases the probability that we are going to get some sort of pullback and

retest of those lows, and when you look at the brexit vote, you look at the fact that the government shutdown here in the states, there's lots of reasons why you could see that scenario unfold >> okay. at this point -- hold on, buddy. my fifth grade math class tells me if there's a 50% chance of something happening, there's a 50% chance of something else happening. all right. you gave us half the odds. what makes it more likely than not that that outcome occurs >> i think what makes it more likely than not that ut outcome potentially can unfold this way is simply that, again, looking back at the stocks, looking back at the -- it suggests that there is not as much confidence with investors. great rally. great bounce i think people want that pullback and retest to ultimately see that be the case. when we've not seen a retest, brian, is when you had those v-bottoms where, that tennended more crisis periods. 87 was a v.

>> everybody thinks it's going to be a double bottom low. >> the market is given the shutdown a pass so far how much longer does it have we're in day 26, craig >> you know, the answers to that is the market believes that we are going to work this out ultimately i think that this is going to get a pass for probably the next 30 to 60 days. if it goes that long i'm want sure it is, but if it does go that long, but then at that time credit rating agencies start to come into question and then the market is going to react more severely. >> then we'll get you back on. you know why 38 special, we're so caught up in you craig johnson, thanks for joining us appreciate it, butty >> thank you, brian. >> time to reveal your mystery chart.

it's also your morning rbi today it has to do with netflix. that's the chart we showed you they turn 1,000 into 90,000 if you had bought the stock back in 2007 okay you know the news. netflix raising prices again going from $14 to $16 on the top tier this is random. >> for 436 years dvds in the mail streaming to one of the leading content companies in the world, and making you $89,000 richer on a $1,000 investment. that is the power of the stock market, and we're going to try to find you names i like that

every day. we're going to leave you with the 38 special have a spectacular day see yotorru moow "squawk box" is next which i used to offer health insurance to my employees. what's in your wallet? my mom washes the dishes... ...before she puts them in the dishwasher. so what does the dishwasher do? cascade platinum does the work for you, prewashing and removing stuck-on foods, the first time. wow, that's clean! cascade platinum.

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the prime minister's political future and quarterly results are due this hour from bank of america and black rock we'll give you an extended live interview with black rock chairman larry fink on china, the shutdown, virtue signaling it's wednesday, january 16,

2019 "squawk box" begins right now. >> are you going to see right now things are flat. dow futures indicated by 3.5%. the s&p futures down by less than a point the nasdaq off by 3.5 as well. this is all comes after an update for the markets dow was up 155 points. the first time stocks rose in three sessions actually, closed near the high of the sessions even after we saw the brexit deal failure and by a huge margin in the parliament in the u.k. we'll talk more about that, and let's look at what happened overnight in asia. you are going to see that the nikkei was