panw tech, tech, tech we saw the leadership in tech and the fang stocks coming back. >> it was a real pleasure. thanks for taking it easy on us. "the exchange" with kelly evans begins right now >> thank you, brian. welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. the bank bounce is the comeback in financials the sign the economy is doing just fine goldman and bank of america are now up 25% since the day after christmas. and a setback for america's energy boom. we'll look at how the government shutdown could crimp oil production and it's the op-ed that's got wall street talking the author of a new piece that says you may want to consider firing your male broker. but the move higher coming off a little bit, dom. how are the numbers looking? >> they probably feel better now about the markets. the dow is up about 152 points it's actually pacing the major

three advances you can see up by almost 0.6%. and the nas dk up by about 0.3%. one big industry group to watch because those big banks such a part of the story. check out the financial spdr up almost 2.5%. over the course of the past year, these shares have fallen by about 27%, but since the bottom on christmas eve, up about 14%. a big move higher for financials goldman very much a part of that story and the stock mover of the day, shares of upscale retailer nordstrom. those shares down by 7%. right now you can see those shares have now fallen by about 27% just since the highs we saw back in the early part of this last fall, and we're now down the only s&p 500 stock today to hit a 52-week low as we trade in this limbo area for the markets overall. >> more on that in rapid fire. thank you, dom markets are trying to climb

out of correction territory today. transports up for their eighth day out of nine and bond yields are rising the ten-year edging back to 2.75%. and the financials are up, but it's not just the banks boosting them today blackrock is up more than 4% let's get more on that with bob pisani at the new york stock exchange >> hello, kelly. blackrock is an investment advise are behemoth. owners of the ishares etf. the number one etf provider out there. asset management was down but that was because the markets dropped not because of huge outflows from those. the ishares took in a whopping $81 billion. that's a huge amount given the market volatilitvolatility $1.8 trillion in assets under management in their etf globally to give you an idea how big that is, that's about half the value of the entire u.s. etf business. the stock is up because of those inflows they're seeing that stock was down 20% in the

fourth quarter those low fee etfs are really great for consumers. it's just hard to increase your revenues >> unless you're as big as black rock clearly, thank you turning to washington. day 26 of the government shutdown elon is live in washington where nancy pelosi is now asking the president to postpone his state of the union is that official >> it is the first line of pelosi's request says it all. it was my privilege to invite you. she knows what she's doing here and that's depriving the president of his moment in the spotlight. no response yet from the white house, though. we've seen some movement in the white house. he met with the problem solvers caucus the ending of the shutdown still a precondition to any serious discussions on border security in the senate, a bipartisan group of lawmakers is working on a letter to president trump asking him to reopen the government for three weeks to give congress time to debate

border security. trump projected this idea once already but the hope is if he sees there's broad support for this plan, perhaps he'll change his mind it is a long shot but at least they're asking >> ylan, they were talking about how there's just a few days left in session, even once we get back up and running to talk about the government this year because we're already halfway through the fiscal year. and then we have to talk about funding for 2020 it's starting to remind me of rolling blackouts, right >> absolutely. the concern here, i think, for the market s s is all of all of these spending issues get mushed together we have to deal with the debt ceiling which comes back into force after march 1st. alsoey is quest y isequester. there's a lot of big budget decisions on the plate and not a lot of time to get them done >> do they need the president's approval to raise the debt ceiling? >> they do >> so even if the house and senate came together and said we've approved this, president

trump ultimately needs to sign off on it? >> the house signed a measure that would suspend the debt ceiling once they pass a budget resolution but the senate would have to sign off on that >> every day it's drawing closer let's get more on this with our opening exchange dan clifton, the has of policy research and greg, the chief economics commentator at "the wall street journal. let me start with the economic impact which appears to be growing by the white house's own admission. some were even talking about this pushing first quarter growth negative. now there's word the state of the union may not happen how big of a deal is that for the president in terms of getting this all resolved? >> first let me talk about the direct economic ferkeffects. federal workers will be able to collect unemployment insurance that's one way of blunting the impact of them not receiving the paychecks. you're also going to see tax

refunds come out. >> dan, on -- >> 800,000 employees so that's about a quarter of it. so it's not good for growth, but it's not going to lead to negative growth in the first quarter. and if it gets resolved by the end of the first quarter, it's just a timing difference the indirect effects are more worrisome and that is that the impact that this could have on confidence and other factors but it's becoming a bigger problem each day it's just getting a little bit overblown in the media >> i want to ask about the jobless claim. that's interesting the point so far has been if you're furloughed, that means you'll get paid later on therefore, you can't collect unemployment insurance, right? so even people who are going to collect a full paycheck with a delay are going to be able to collect weekly unemployment benefits in the meantime obviously not have to give those back >> yes, absolutely you don't have to give the jobless claims back but i would have to look deeper into it but the point is they're trying to blunt the impact by keeping that economic going and trying to

also offset the impact that could have on confidence as well >> this is a strange shutdown because omb has been trying to mitigate the effects we've seen shutdowns that become political theater, whether the obama administration or house republicans trying to say, either we don't need government or here's why we need government so much. this one is stuck in the middle where they're trying to take the sting out of it. this latest claim about jobless claims feeding right into that how can that be -- what is the symbolism even trying to tell us about this dispute >> you're right. typically one of the ways one side gets leverage over the other is making the price go up so you'd have both sides trying to inflict pain on the other but in this case, democrats do not want to be painted at the ones who caused people to miss their paycheck and have to go to the bank to ask for forgiveons their loan and so both sides in some sense have a benefit in trying to stand tough while minimizing those background impacts i'm with dan on this i think that you're still

talking about marginal direct impacts. huge for the individuals, small for the aggregate economy. it's starting to gum up some of the basic operations of the economy. turns out businesses need a lot of buy-in from the federal government, initial public faufrg your stock to signing off on a new mortgage from a federallyguaranteed agency or launching a new craft beer, for example. those things are going to pile up but, kelly, one thing i don't think we've thought much about and i'd be curious where this goes is how it affects the president's state of mind with respect to other contentious issues coming along. >> such as >> if he starts to worry this is having a bad effect on the economy, does it make him less likely to do something disruptive with automobile tariffs or reach a deal with china on trade >> the next step is the president is worried about the economy in general because investment has slowed. and that's why you're starting to see increasing optimism in the financial markets about

getting a deal with china and pushing for that it could force him in there. it could back him away from these auto tariffs itself because at the end of the day we're entering the presidential election cycle on top of all this and pelosi canceling the state of the union today it will be interesting if mitch mcconnell invites the from the come speak in the senate chamber without the house chamber. it would be a little tight there. we always believed the president was going to resolve the shutdown right before the state of the union and she sort of took that off the table today. >> can still give the speech -- >> a lot of noise itself but the bigger issues are china trade, fed policy and what's happening in the european and chinese economies. >> the global economy is weakening and we're leaning ever more on the u.s. right now and if we're leaning as i think you suggest we are on fiscal policy, how do we do that when the government is shut down? >> first, let me say we'll have a huge tax refund season that's important it holds up the u.s. consumer until we can get this china deal march 1st. that will allow investment to

come over. but the big trend under price is this push for global fiscal policy stimulus that other countries are trying to replicate what the u.s. did in 2017 the german leader came out for tax cuts this week you're seeing it in china. you're seeing it more and more in capitals around the world that they need to get their economy stronger, like the u.s. did. and that's going to be a big trend that plays out midyear >> could that be a positive pushing toward structural reform or a negative because a lot of these countries are looking for growth that they simply don't have and that may be for other reasons, even demographic ones >> i just don't see there being enough ammunition in the fiscal quiver to have enough effect on the global economy this year the way the math works, it's not just enough to have fiscal expansion. it has to be bigger than the year before. even though we're still seeing the expansionary effects of the tax cuts working through the system, they are smaller than last year. that's why the economy is slowing down globally, the same story germany has tax cuts, it will

mitigate the degree of fiscal contraction already baked in the cake for germany japan as well. previous fiscal expansion leak away and i think the bigger question there i think continues to be the tightening monetary conditions a weaker dollar probably does far more to take the pressure off emerging markets and i think toning down of the trade tensions is also a huge issue. that has been a major, major negative on confidence >> final question to both of you before we go how many days, greg, do you think the shutdown goes on >> you know, i have made so many wrong guesses. i'm going to basically take a pass on the opportunity to embarrass myself once again. >> smart man dan, what about you? >> no, but when it happens, it happens quickly and you probably have to have a very dark moment before it reopens. that was the case in 2011 and 2013 >> more uncertainty than ever. dan clifton and greg ip, appreciate it. here's what's ahead on "the

exchange" -- >> coming up, banks are bringing the street back. what their results are telling us about the health of the consumer oh, snap shares falling as top executives continue to depart what's ahead for the company and the provocative headline raising eyebrows on wall street and beyond consider firing your male broker we'll talk to the author this is "the exchange" on cnbc is number one in the nation? sure, they probably know what they're talking about. or the one that j.d. power says is highest in network quality by people who use it every day? this is a tough one. well, not really, because verizon won both. so you don't even have to choose. why didn't you just lead with that? it's like a fun thing. (vo) chosen by experts. chosen by you. get six months apple music on us. it's the unlimited plan you need on the network you deserve.

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i am a techie dad.n. i believe the best technology should feel effortless. like magic. at comcast, it's my job to develop, apps and tools that simplify your experience. my name is mike, i'm in product development at comcast. we're working to make things simple, easy and awesome.

welcome back take a look at the banks again today. the big bounce off those christmas lows continues shares of goldman sachs and bank of america are now up about 25% since then let's bring in wilfred frost you'll have to delay the start of your show >> mike is going to pick it up if i'm not there in time >> there is a plan, right? because there could be traffic >> there will be traffic but it's good to be here on set with you. so we have huge moves. we don't often see goldm mman shares moving as fast. what do you think is going on here >> the first thing is these were somewhat priced for a recession or close to that what we've got throughout the sets of earnings is that's not

on the cards whether it's in the numbers or earnings call or guidance early part of the week we saw some stocks beat on one line but not the other line today both goldman sachs and bank of america beating on both and very positive earnings >> jamie dimon was just interviewed and talked about -- he said everyone asks me about net interest margins investors are focused on the wrong thing for these banks. take a listen to that. >> too much focus in the short term i look at -- what's important to me, market share number of clients, products and services, new branches not nim and whether expenses are higher or lower that quarter we can't forecast trading any more than anyone nels this room can. >> so disparaging about nim. is that because it's not really an issue you take the longer view for jpmorgan is he right that trading shouldn't be a big deal? >> or it's not in his control. he was focusing on things that matter for jpmorgan to create

long-term value and advantage over other institutions but when investors are deciding whether it's a good time to pay up to own banks at a given valuation you have to have some view of what that interest is going to be like or what the trading environment may be so i get why there's a mismatch. >> i wonder how much -- yes, we're up 25% from the christmas eve lows but we had fallen so that doesn't even put us back. they had a bad year. a lot these names were down 30%. >> goldman close to 30%. come back to what he said there. when he criticizes the analysts and whether they get judges on analysts' expectations or long-term performance. to his credit, yesterday on the earnings call, they were down before their earnings call justice and then rallied throughout it. he said i couldn't care less about one quarter's performance on trading and that was the big theme of disappointment. but it was just really in december -- >> he said really cyclical

high yields didn't issue at all during december. but there were some people saying that may be a structural change that they'll do private placements now are we right to believe all these bank execs, oh, that's just cyclical. what if this is the new normal >> i think you can have both be true which is the fourth quarter was uniquely bad because it was a one-way market there wasn't a lot of opportunity for the banks to stand in the middle and get those spreads and make hay there. investors are less willing to put a high value on those capital markets operation because of the structural challenges so, yes, the advantage is eroded for the best institutions in that area to some degree both of them are true. it's probably one of the many reasons that the group looks very cheap right now relative to history. >> is the overall read on the economy fine from them in terms of what they're saying about the consumer and credit cycles and commercial industrial loans? >> definitely. loan growth has been fine coming

forward. jpmorgan did increase their provisions a little bit but that's because they're growing loans more than expected and taking market share. and credit quality was pristine. he did have some warnings for the leverage low market. someone is going to get hurt there but it's not a systemic issue like 2007 and won't affect the banks as much. the commentary on the economy in the u.s. was good. >> with goldman, it's more of a firm issue this malaysia bond issue and penalties that may still be coming is the ceo right they can put that behind them it's not going to affect other clients? that stock has really been hurt by this. >> i think it may be true over one year maybe not true over the five years since 2013 because the southeast asian business hasn't done quite as well there they increase $516 million in the quarter, close to a billion over the course of the whole of the year, and my sources in the bank suggest they'll not have to increase provisions anymore for

any financial penalty they might pay if it's within the realms of what they expect the messaging coming from them is as long as it's not some wild card bigger than expectation, they'll be fine. they've already provided for it. >> on this then, we saw the banks really get hit when this trading period was awful you name it, investors didn't like them last year. so if we're taking off the recession trade, that's one thing. what needs to happen from here for investors to own the banks >> i think investors need to get assurance the economic cycle is not really winding down. it's really an exaggerated version of what the entire market is deal with. in the fourth quarter you definitely got a real intense panic that there was either a big credit issue that was going to pop up or the economy was down shifting rapidly. we're getting assurance that wasn't the case. no bodies bobbing to the surface because of the credit markets. beyond that you have a sense this economy is going to continue to grow at a decent rate and the blocking and tackling of like a bank of

america can continue to create value into next year >> mike santoli and wilfred frost, we'll see you in a little bit. the government shutdown is putting america's energy industry into peril. plus, remember pokemon go? the maker of that game is giving harry potter fans 245 million reasons to be happy today. we're heading to hogwarts in today's rapid fire "the exchange" is back in two. >> want to get social with "the exchange"? e-mail us at theexchange@cnbc.com or find us on twitter @cnbctheexchange.

welcome back to "the exchange." here are some of the movers this hour united airlines jumping after reporting a beat on the top and bottom line. domestic revenues grew pg&e seeing another down day after getting kicked out of the s&p 500. the california utility is now down 75% in the past month nearly 8% of that is today ford is moving lower after forecasting weaker than expected fourth quarter profit. ford shares down about 5% today. over to sue herera for a cnbc news update. >> here's what's happening at this hour. at the state department, vice president mike pence claiming that isis has been defeated. but it came shortly after the u.s. military says american service members were among those

killed during an explosion during a routine patrol in jair that isis claimed responsibility for. >> thanks to the leadership of this commander in chief and the courage and sacrifice of our armed forces, we're now actually able to begin to hand off the fight against isis in syria to our coalition partners, and we are bringing our troops home the caliphate has crumbled, and isis has been defeated >> democratic senators criticizing president trump in the wake of the deaths of those american service members in syria saying his 30-day withdrawal of u.s. troops was dangerous. >> this tragic occurrence on the battlefield reflects how the united states has no strategy, no plan and no real path forward. the danger to our troops will only increase. >> you are up todate that's the news update

kelly, back to you 30 minutes until "power lunch. i'm joined by tyler who is celebrating the hokies destruction. >> no, the cavaliers -- >> i'm sorry the cavaliers. >> mr. sullivan over there he has been absolutely gracious in this. the virginia cavaliers edged the hokies the two teams played while both being ranked in the top ten in many, many years on "power lunch" we'll talk about what would a day be without an apple story and this is a good one remember when tim cook was talking to jim cramer. he said apple's ultimate legacy will be in health care that's what we'll talk about today. christina farr has a story about apple and the approaches they are beginning to make to medicare advantage providers for the watch, which can be a life-saving device if your watch detects information -- >> what are you always wearing >> i'm actually wearing a shineola watch today, but i have

a fitbit but at any rate, so it can reveal atrial fibrillation, if you fallif you're distressed and the applications are very, very, very -- >> yeah, they're powerful. and they might lose some of their cool factor but a huge new area for apple >> and at 2:00, the most aptly named tome released. that would be the beige book of the fed. but it will be a colorful day otherwise. >> brexit, too a whole lot coming up. tyler mathisen here's what's coming up on "the exchange." ahead -- the chinese government atm will the billions they are spending work? the street turns to replacement retail sales and before there was the iphone, erwathe s the razr, and it may be ready to make a comeback. the visionary lexus nx. lease the 2019 nx 300 for $339/mo. for 36 months.

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welcome back let's get to a few more headlines that should be on your radar. time for "rapid fire." brian sullivan, courtney reagan and also seema mody with quite the boots. if you get the right camera shot -- >> we'll figure it out >> that would be a hard shot to

get. >> from up top anyway let's get to the first story which is china's central bank injected $83 billion into the country's banking system this is a record amount for a single day it seems like they're getting desperate to short the economy >> and what's fascinating is this is likely just the start. this stimulus playbook that china takes out of the file cabinet every time their economy starts to slow down has three different levels one is a tax cut the second is the liquidity bank injections, which is what we saw today. the third are the property reforms. like buying chinese equities if history is any indication of what to expect we'll see more measures -- >> they'll buy the shanghai composite next >> japan did it with japanese etfs when does it start impacting the economy? probably 6 to 12 months. too soon to bet on the china rebound. >> there's the shanghai composite latest the retail sales report has gone missing it was to come out this morning and it's thanks to the government shutdown. the results from retail

companies are mixed. nordstrom, not so hot today. how is the street getting information? >> this is tricky. the national retail federation is usually the number we use they get that from certain categories we have november but don't have december that means we don't have the nrf number we have mastercard numbers they said the strongest read in six years at 5%. >> but there was an extra day. >> and the first data gave me information. they are a data processor. they say sales were only up 2.4% now i've got about -- i've tracked about 22 retailers that have self-reported their holiday sales. i will say most of them were higher than last year. so they reported increases >> let's hope. between 2.5 and 5? >> it could be some disappointment you have names like tilly's, a specialty retailer lululemon up, i think it was --

>> here's my question about nordstrom. certainly the numbers weren't bad. they were just nordstrom rack was strong so you're cannibalizing your own business. you're buying the cheap stuff. >> you know what was weak? oil was weak during this >> great example here's my retail metaphor. what if chevron had a discount gas station that sold the same gas or it was in your mind and was 20% less why not go to chef sflon go to chevron light. a lot of the retailers are doing that to themselves >> exactly >> a little cooler sometimes >> macy's is trying to do its own off-price strategy within its store. the right or wrong call? >> it's a sign of the times. >> would you rather have your -- >> rent the runway >> my one splurge, okay? leave me alone >> they're gorgeous. >> let's talk about shares of snap they are sinking on news the cfo is resigning after less than a

year on the job. this turnover is never a good sign the bigger issue for snap is whether the -- it's kind of lost its moment instagram, have they sold most of its thunder >> this management exodus is clearly a negative the stock is down 60% in the last one year. what's going on with evan spiegel? his management strategy? one of the core challenges is snap developing from a product to an actual company still trying to figure out its advertising. >> the goggles they didn't really work. >> they call themselves a camera company. forget about the exodus as much as where they're coming from what's one of the most admired companies in the world amazon the cfo who left, he came from amazon do you leave amazon to come to snap and then leave snap after eight months now maybe we'll find out that he got a ceo job or something a little bigger and we'll say, okay, it wasn't a big deal but all these departures, this is a company that is burning cash -- >> and the control of the company, speaking of amazon.

we talk about jeff bezos' divorce. he only has 16% of the company now. evan spiegel, very, very different story. a tight fist over this thing a lot depends on judgment here and him getting this right there's no one else, if the cfo has left, who else is in his brain trust. >> bezos has -- >> i'm going to move on past that one >> look at your shoes. >> remember the phenomenon last year with the pokemon go game? the maker of that announced it's raised $245 million in its latest funding round it's nearly valued at $4 billion. here's why it's working on a harry potter version basically of this game where you can be immersed in the harry potter world i think it sounds totally intriguing except i wonder if we know too much about it already and can it live up to the hype >> i think we were all surprised the hype that it had in the beginning and different retailers are trying to get the

pokemon characters in their stores to drive the traffic into the store. >> does it last? >> they were in the middle of the street and, don't get hit by cars >> summer of 2016. i remember everyone was transfixed by pokemon go and then interest waned. you have to wonder what else they can develop when it comes to games >> harry potter sounds promising. >> they have a bigger problem. >> which is? >> fortnite. >> i don't know. >> fortnite was around a couple years ago. >> it's still super, duper hot, i am told. >> you can have more than one hot game >> he says from his headset. >> what's that, player one come in >> no, they'll have every game not just this has got to get kids off of fortnite to do it, period because everybody is playing fortnite >> even the knicks head coach told us that his biggest problem is his players staying up too late playing fortnite

i think harry potter has a lot of potential and investors think so, too. "the wall street journal report"ing today that the once popular -- remember this the motorola flip phone. a foldable screen this time. reportedly it will have a starting price of $1500 and it could be available in the u.s. as soon as next month. i think the nostalgia play is smart here i like it. >> will it work and resurrecting this old model when we have nice, beautiful iphones. >> it's made by the chinese now. lenovo do we want any chinese company touching our data when our smartphones are -- i'm not sure people are going to be so excited to hear that >> i hear a lot of people talking about wanting to go back to the days of the flip phone because they want to simplify their life and they want to go back >> chip gaines -- courtney will understand this. >> saw it yesterday. he broke his smartphone and had to go back to one of those primitive. >> he liked it >> a primitive flip phone.

>> but i think it's a smart -- i think it's like this phone that just folds i don't think it's a dumb phone. >> it's not. >> but should it be? maybe it would be better >> we all say that until you try it how do i get to the local wendy's and then you realize, it's not a smartphone. >> i pay with my phone all the time i just walk around with it >> i don't >> courtney, you've got to get on >> it makes me nervous >> it's really wonderful guys, thank you. did we get a shot of the boots >> seema mody. >> it's day 26 of the government shutdown a look at how it could be putting america's energy industry into peril. in and a live shot at the world central kitchens outpost on pennsylvania avenue. this is feeding furloughed workers free meals daily we'll veore ha mon that on "power lunch" coming up.

welcome back to "the exchange." new developments surrounding ousted nissan chairman carlos ghosn as he awaits his fate in a japanese jail. let's go to hong kong. a akiko, the french government is now stepping up its plans to change that. >> exactly this would mark a real about-face for the french government andrenault. when ghosn was first arrested back in november, the french government and renault stood by him saying that they would keep him as chairman because their internal investigation had not found any wrongdoing on the part of carlos ghosn while nissan and mitsubishi moved very quickly to remove him from the top spot now we reported we're learning this morning that french officials have travelled to tokyo to discuss potentially the removal of carlos ghosn. and this comes on the back of

what transpired earlier this week carlos ghosn applied for bail after he was indicted for a second time last week on charges of aggravated breach of trust. that was denied. so we're now looking at carlos ghosn behind bars at least until march, potentially six months. and it certainly looks like ren also and the french government which has a 15% stake in ren al ault has decided to move forward. >> do they have a similar jury trial process like america's >> there is a jury process the expectation, though, if this case goes to trial is that it would largely be a trial by judge. so essentially you'd have a panel of judges, three judges, that would go through this case. that's the most common form of a criminal trial over in japan and that could last, on average, about 13 months. if we're looking at the timeline right now, carlos ghosn has been behind bars for eight weeks, two

months so until march and maybe six months until it comes to trial it's still a long road ahead for the former nissan chair. >> if these exonerated, he'll still have spent all this time behind bars. if he's not, are we talking about a long additional jail term >> well, that still remains to be seen. you know, if we can backtrack to talk about how the japanese criminal justice system works because this is something that's been under heavy criticism since ghosn was arrested they have one of the highest conviction rates in the world. it's 99% the expectation in a lot of this is that they pursue cases, they as in the prosecutors, pursue cases that they largely feel they have the upper hand on. and a lot of it is based on getting a forced confession. if you look at the charges carlos ghosn faces right now, the first case of underreporting his income carries a charge or penalty of up to ten years in prison it's questionable in terms of the breach, aggravated breach of

trust. that's likely to carry more serious penalties. if he is found guilty, he's looking at ten years if he is exonerated, well, we're looking at the least a year behind bars given that this trial is expected to take that long >> that is fascinating akiko, thank you so much i can see why it's provoked debate about the best way to perceive it. still ahead -- how the energy industry could be impacted as the government shutdown rolls on. as we head to break, look at the dow 30 heat map. goldman sachs is far and away the best performer today jpmorgan is up there united health strong verizon and coca-cola are lagging. i'm story uunited health is as well more on "the exchange" ahead 24 hours a day, five days a week. that's amazing. it's a pretty big deal. so i can trade all night long? ♪ ♪ all night long...

is that lionel richie? let's reopen the market. mr. richie, would you ring the 24/5 bell? sure can, jim. ♪ trade 24/5, with td ameritrade. ♪

i am a techie dad.n. i believe the best technology should feel effortless. like magic. at comcast, it's my job to develop, apps and tools that simplify your experience. my name is mike, i'm in product development at comcast. we're working to make things simple, easy and awesome. day 26 of the government shutdown, and still no deal in sight. the department of energy is out with a new report saying the u.s. is on track to become energy independent by 2020 but could the shutdown derail that path welcome, kevin also brian sullivan joins us want to ask you what the ramifications are of each day the government is shut for your industry

>> a couple of things. it's important to note the molecules keep moving even if the government isn't watching but there are regulatory actions that could be impacted in the long term, those involve rules that deregulate some of the changes the obama administration made that could open up more production and more consumption also here at home. also, just not to be overlooked, some of those companies are petitioning the commerce department for exceptions from steel tariffs. and they won't get their answers if the commerce department isn't there to answer them >> we've had this amazing run up in oil production in this country, like 11 million barrels? >> 11.6 million barrels a day. >> so part of that is going to come from opening new frontiers in alaska, maybe west coast, offshore drilling. are your saying we need that forward progress if we want to keep that number growing >> it's a wonky reality but takes a rule to roll back a rule to expand the available access to drilling areas adjacent to the united states and off limits offshore areas

that takes a rule that has to be written. there has to be people back to do that. at the interior department, some of those people returned changing safety regulations to promote investment in ways more efficient and more safe. that takes rules at the epa for methane emissions and the interior department for offshore drilling safety. those people have to be there. once those rules are finalized they have to be defended if the trump administration ends with just one term, before those rules are successfully defende in court, then the next administration could abandon those defenses and bring back the status quo >> that's interesting because this is a one renaissance that happened, you know, without the government's encouragement of it it was during the obama administration the fracking revolution started and really started to really, you know, bear out does it rely on what kevin is talking about for that to keep happening? this -- the shutdown is temporary but does the -- the whole thing doesn't hang on the trump administration, does it? >> current production, no. future production, yes current production, no, because

those things that go up and down, the pump jack as they call it, those don't care they are machines. they are going to keep operating. they'll keep producing from currently drilled wells regardless kevin is rightregardless future well drilling, that's the issue. there's a lot of jobs attached to this as well. now right now, there's a skeleton staff to kevin's point at interior and some others. there's some money left over from last year's budget so some of those people are still being paid it's really a skeleton crew. here's the thing there's a huge land sale lease really in wyoming next month if that goes through, it means things are still operate, but that crew and money may run out if that sale in wyoming doesn't go throw, we're going to know future things may be shut down for now, those permits aren't issued you're not putting anything not ground >> kevin, when do you r start getting nervous about the boom ending >> a lot has to do with macro

economic factors if the shutdown becomes a catalyst for recession, that's a b problem. we have an industry that responds to the price and the price collapses in recession, there you go on the other hand, the regula tear ris b ks, the ones i named and some of the ones i i didn't like the clean power plant for greenhouse gases from the obama administration the trump administration wants to set a new sort of minimalist interpretation of the clean air act that could affect other sectorsregulations finishing those things before the end of the administrations harder as long as the shutdown goes on. it's a broker battle of the sexes. we'll talk to the author behind a new controversial op-ed a advocating clients fire their male brokers when we come back

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with your renters insurance. oh, geico helps with renters insurance? good to know. yeah, and they could save you a lot of money. wow, suddenly i feel so relieved. you guys are fired. get to know geico and see how much you could save on renters insurance. welcome back if you're unhappy with the returns in your portfolio, it may be time to change the gender of your advisers the op-ed says consider firing your male broker studies show women outperform men in investing

okay, blair, what did barery and josh say when they saw this this morning? saying they shouldn't get any buzz >> no, actually, the point of the article is to point out there are so few women as advisers and that's one the reasons they hired me was to have more women. our clients are women, too women are half o the population and only one fifth of advisers a number of that hasn't changed in the 15 years i've been doing this >> in this, you basically accuse men of having a rampant con flick of interest, say iing that women put investment performance or the financial goals of their clients first, but men don't i don't know if it's fair to paint this with such a broad brush. >> of course i'm stereotype, but there's truth in every stereotype i was really just wanting to get the taepgs of women.

i think many don't know being a financial adviser is a fulfilling career. the it's a financially secure career and a career where you can live a normal life >> it's gotten some attention. >> i would say this. i say this only because my daughter is a former investment adviser representative myself in a prior life i was one of the problem males apparently as a a former broker, former financial adviser in my days the tough part i have to come to grips with is i agree. there are not enough women in the field. whether or not we're generalizing about their investment styles, i don't subscribe to it i'm not sure many people should performance should speak on its own. but i say this there is a need for people, women specifically, to consider financial advisory or wall street as a career >> sure. >> that's going to be the key to this whole thing getting more women involved. that's the reason why this is such a big deal. >> i wonder, too, about the returns. the outperformance is documented

here and there, but women are are such a small part of the industry are we sure that's going to hold up >> of course one of the studies was looking at individual investors, it showed they outperformed not because they picked better investments, but because they traded less. they are less overconfident. they traded less incured less trading costs and that was the reasons they outperformed perhaps more women as advisers would help balance the equation here and i think our client rs 50% men and 50% women and i think it's time for advisers to have the same ratio. >> do you think josh brown should be fired. >> absolutely not. >> you know, dom, that's what the headline, it says consider it consider it. >> so here's what i would say in response to that i remember oaf the course of my career, just the past few year, i've had the chance to interview a lot of top money managers or women in power in finance. either on or off the record and one of the things i always ask

them is what would it take or what kind of advice would you give my daughter, who is not yet 2 years old, but i want her to be a powerful, strong, independent you know thinker a doer i want her to be all of those things >> do you want her to be an investment adviser >> i don't know, but i want her the to know the skills involved. i don't know a common theory about the industry overall, whether or not some people just choose to go into fields other than that. by the way, a lot of men i know who i thought would have wanted to work on wall street have chosen not to. so maybe the whole demographic is changing. >> blair, in order to make a case that there should be more women working in the industry, does it have to mean that they are better than the men r or are there other reasons why they haven't really gone this career route? >> well, wall street east been a boy's club forever it's not a secret and whatever we've been doing to try to encourage more women hasn't worked so i think we need to try

something different. in the article, i spoke about the blind auditions for symphony orchestras they put the musicians behind a screen and the hiring decision had nothing to do with their gender maybe we need to find that solution in our industry >> all right blair, thank you joining us there along with dominic. great stuff. guys thank you very much. jamie dimon spoke today at the economic club of new york and we thought it was interesting when asked about america's health care crisis he responded not by talk iing about how analytics are important, but maybe we should get back to the presidential challenge. >> fitness challenge >> absolutely. zpl i was never very good at the v sit, but i thought it was a clever way ofsy saing you could do the bully pulpit. >> i know your history as an athlete. >> no, that does it for the change i'll join tyler and melissa on "power lunch," which begins now.

indeed, it does. thank you very much. i'm tyler mathisen along with melissa lee and new at 2:00 today, a double dose of breaking news the fed's beige book report on the economy and u.k. prime minister may facing a crucial no confidence vote. market's in the green right now. >> and the beige book is out steve. >> eight of 12 districts saw increased growth at a modest to moderate pace, but four districts, kansas city, new york, st. louis and cleveland saw somewhat less robust growth. growth flattened kansas city and levelled off in new york the outlock was seen as positive, but many districts said the context had grown less optimistic because of financial market volatility, rising interest rate, falling energy prices and elevated trade and political uncertainty. the shutdown was mentioned only