unitedhealth care. numbers are going higher >> jpmorgan. others will follow. >> good to see all of you. "the exchange" beginning now here's what's ahead this hour davos man is worried about a recession. is this really cause for concern? another housing misstep. a keep measure of sales. we look at the numbers, and an executive who wants to shake up the sector for good. he blames the industry for making it that way we'll have much, much more

>> an acceleration in the last five for seven minutes or so the nasdaq is off 1.6% at this point now. the imf is downgrading its forecast for global growth also china's numbers coming out yesterday also playing a part of that caterpillar and 3m, this is two stocks shaving about -- >> so they're done one of the biggest movers to the down side.

>> and check out oil, too, which is down about 3% and just hanging on to the $502 a barrel mark that's a worry, and also weak existing home seals this morning. bob pisani has more from the new york stock exchange. >> just remember what's been going on all essential alps, and we had a huge move, so we're a little overbought i don't think it's a big mover right now, but the china slowing story, lowest gdp since 1990 500 points in two days we priced in a trade deal right now. not a lot of room, but very

concerned about the housing numbers. you can see it in the hows and diy. stanley and black & decker surprised everybody with very poor guidance. that's this space. >> we're going to talk more about that in a bit. we'll see you, thank you, bob. >> this week and finally smp movement he thinking the government -- i saw you coke your head a bit that one >> from nigh vantage point, it look like the shutdown is likely to extend through this week. the senate has just reconvened for this bit, today for an

introduce, and that proposal includes -- up but it also includes three years of extended protections. they also say this is a temporary solution in exchange for what is a permanent border wall as well as extending cash assistance republicans need seven democrats to break ranking, but even if it does, it's a nonstarter over in the house.

do we get a smaller version of that >> that's what the president has proposed democrats say this is very different from the bipartisan, what was called the bridge and that they had introduced previously, because it does not include protections for those union people who are not currently in the program >> there are some teem for this. the program is not immediately in danger. >> i know they feel like they have time, but at some point, do they say, you know what? this is as big of a moral issue as immigration or the was.

this is what made is so different. instead order to benefit people who were. >> maybe they'll have the state of the union after after ylan mui, thank you. the longer the shutdown continuing, the likely it is -- this comes as -- in 28 years in the snowy mountains of davos, some of the top minds in business are warning that a -- >> the peak happens typically four to.

>> i don't know where that came from >> we'll have a slowing of the economy, in europe, and you're going to have a slower commission in other places that will have an effect the main thing is a global slow down is being forecast emergen markets. >> global slowdown seems to be what everybody agrees with steve liesman is here as well. by the way, steve, last year davos was --let's not bury the

lead on the good news. as you know, it's not the biggest part of the gdp, but they are the biggest part in the growth that decline is meaningful for global growth. >> let's talk to mr. rutledge about that.

sometimes i think people complain that they -- and then they use it. the fact is service it is are still doing okay, but a lot of that debt is dollar denominated. when you u.s. dollar goes up and when the interest rates go up, the burden of that debt goes up on them, and there's no reason to go. >> i was just going to say, to that point, even saying we would let hem weaken the currency, no, they can't that creates an internal problem for them absolutely if the you had a rows of

bankruptcies or failures or the like, that would be a system freezer. and it's now down 10% this year, so is peer lending >> some of these companies have dollar denominated sources so it's not like it's all debt -- dollar debt being paid. >> not all, but i think that story is oversold, steve. >> okay. >> we have essential cyro interest rates, it was very attractive, and in a lot of the rest of the world, people loaded up on dollar debt.

>> in the meantime they're probably likely to do -- so let's bring it back to the stocks thatdom was talking about at the top of the hour are these names we have to avoid until we have clarity, or will they be fined because china will come up with some way to muddle through. >> they're trying hard to still lat. >> the problem is an even weeker r & -- that's not what they want to solve the problem, so they're doing administrative pressure. that's bad for the companies you are talking about. the other thing is most of the companies are capital goods companies. right now if you say how is the uncertainty in the world we have the u.s., trump, russia, mueller. we have brexit we've got syria.

we've got europe slowing the big slower this week actually was the germany forecast, and china -- >> steve, let me -- let me have mr. liesman with the final comment here. >> i'm not making a capital spending decision right now, period. >> i want to end up where we started off, where there are elements that john discussed outside of our control and some that are inside our control. >> yes. >> the things that it's concerned about tariffs, about brexit there are things that are happening that you can't cross >> the dow is down almost about 400 points peeve will say we can control the shutdown and the fed -- >> and the trade. >> and -- if i can't mark something this week, i think what draghi says on thursday

will be important. >> your two cents. >> i think he's backed off, and i think he'll probably end any remaining expectations such as there might have been about -- >> and by the way, steve's music in the makeup chair. i said what is he listening to >> it's him and ken playing the piano. we should have that -- >> i would be happy to spend as much as you want on my music. >> thank you both. here's what's ahead on "the exchange." >> announcer: coming up, the s&p and eight out of 11 sectors are back in correction territory did the market get ahead of itself with the recent rally plus black & decker blues. why the toolmaker is sinking today and what could be telling us about the housing market. and the $500 million battle. silicon valley takes on hollywood in a costly fayoff

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for your business and free shipping. upload your logo or start your design today for your business and free shipping. and the army taught me a lot about commitment. which i apply to my life and my work. at comcast we're commited to delivering the best experience possible, by being on time everytime. and if we are ever late, we'll give you a automatic twenty dollar credit. my name is antonio and i'm a technician at comcast. we're working to make things simple, easy and awesome. the dow is down 383 points, look at the nasdaq, and in the dow, we were just talking about the issues with china in the slowdown there

caterpillar is the worst stock >>ing in you're looking at and picking up here? >> we believe the rally that followed the big decline from october through december was likely to be more like a bear market rally what you see is sharp run-ups. >> don't you think there's a lot of bearish

bearishness is -- listen to all the experts, they say a slowdown is coming. it's bizarre it's almost like everyone believes there's a recession except for the recession itself. >> ironically we think the u.s. economy will be quite good priism yaerlly because the largest population group will be have centered in the 302045 years old there are 26 million more millennial -- and i don't

want to debate that, but one of the best-performing stocks of the last two months, you know, the home builders have been treated as a defensive set of stocks as interest rates have come down. separate from that this bull markets need to change leadership to go on. that's the bigger subject. the bigers subject is will you have the continuation of this bull market playing the total addressable market of an amazon and netflix? because you get into the if you

own exposure to china, do you have to get rid of them? >> wow, that's a great question. remember, kelly, there was 500 million new middle-class citizens wanting all the people in the united states wanted. the math didn't work out, though, people making 7 or 8 million, they can't buy as much stuff as people making 60,000 in the united states. that was a dead on arrival thing. >> we're not experts in any way. there's probably -- they're probably a better bet in some ways, but i will say this -- we expect to be strong er we don't expect this stock market with this heavy concentration -- >> i hear you.

bill, we have some breaking news i take your point. we'll bring you back kayla tausche, what are you hearing? >> reporter: the market had been looking toward a meeting this week at the staff level to meet with negotiators from the u.s. trade representative's office and treasury department to sort of hammer out and lay the groundwork to come to washington to figure out this trade deal late next week i have learned from my sources that late last week, thursday, friday, around that time frame, that the u.s. actually suggested that beijing's represent activities shouldn't make the trip if they weren't prepared to put on the table some real, concrete ways that china was prepared to rectify long-standing intellectual property violations. that is the core of the trump administration's trade policy.

we reached out to the treasury department and ustr for comment. we have not heard back from either of those departments. we're waiting for more context on what happens from here, whether the meeting for january 30th and 31st, the visit by leo hu will be -- but this is viewed as a negative development, seen by the chinese as something of a change of footing in the u.s this certainly seems to be a change of tone and direction. >> kayla, thank you so much. the dow moment tear was down 400

points, now down 380 some of the major carriers are now putting their own growth plans on hold because key offices of the faa are closed. plus bail denied again carlos ghosn settling in for a long stretch of jail we're back in two. ♪ ♪ our new, hot, fresh breakfast will get you the readiest. (buzzer sound) holiday inn express. be the readiest.

johnson & johnson among the worst today. the earnings are down 2% as we saw the china facing stocks with an even harder time. how about u.b.s., also warning of a tough start to 2019 due to trade disputes. and square is falling on news that apple pay will not be coming to targeseveral companie. the maker of hardware and industrial tools blaming on -- tariff pressure, stanley black & decker down nearly 14%. >> hi, sue. >> here's what's happening at this hour. president trump is expecting to deliver his state of the union address to congress on january 29th a senior administration official

telling that to nbc news house speaker nancy pelosi had asked the president to delay the address until the shutdown had been resolved. negotiator foss 30,000 striking los angeles teachers have reached a tentative deal with the school district the second largest system in the country. it would allow teachers to return to the class rhyme tomorrow l.a. mare yor garcetti making the announcement. >> we spent the past few days hashing owl details. i'm proud to announce, pending approval by the teachers represented by the utla and the board of education, that we have an agreement. the national football league is looking into an incident where tom brady was hit with a laser pointer multiple times neither the chiefs nor the patriots have commented. the laser pointers are banned at nfl stadium. you are up to date

kelly, i'll send it back to you. >> i didn't know that during the game, but i can see why he would be upset. a lot of talk about davos, but maybe some interesting news about bank mergers there was a panel where it was said there could be a wave the consolidation coming this is a sector that hasn't seen many major mergers recently there was one where he's calling these mergers to happen. >> after the crisis, they said basically there's a freeze among the 6,000 or so regional banks, this is likely to happen. this is an area of outperformance in the market so you put, you know,

operational -- operationally, they're okay, and also the potential tailwind of mergers, and this could be a sector that could be seeing -- >> and they also probably have to get big to survive. and people want to go online we do, and of course this is the day that pg & e is up about 20% on securing debtor in possession financele she does not want them -- so the question i think that we have, i think we have a lot of questioning, if they go bankrupt, will they have the money for anything

>> i didn't realize this was her original crusade -- i'm doing it now. melissa, we'll see you soon. here is what's coming up on "the exchange. ahead, elliott's big plannings for ebay, and the 12-hour tarmac delay it's all coming up in "rapid fire." time for a new kind of cloud. the ibm cloud. the cloud that proactively protects your business from threats, instead of just reacting to them. that lets you modernize and move more of your apps without re-writing. that unlocks insights from all your data and puts it to work with ai. get a faster, more secure journey to the cloud. the ibm cloud. the cloud for smarter business. ♪ ♪

welcome back it's time for headlines. it's time for "rapid fire. first up, shares of ebay are surging after the announcement they're taking a stake to the board of director. eric, they spun off paypal in the past, that's doing very well stubhub, is this a spin-off that could flourish >> maybe, but it's a data analytics play they're tracking you on their phone. they want to know who bought what ticket. they want to know is dom going

all the teams nowadays, they know when brokers buy season tickets and -- the teams wants a piece that margin, so they're sort of sticking it to the resellers. >> there's a million players out there. is this even going to be a stand-alone company or one that's folded up -- >> i talked to a a guy who runs one of their competitors he says it matters to me if they go private. >> do you think there's a buy it now price for stubhub? >> the ebay reference, contessa, good >> it's the same fries as it was on friday two years ago. they want to unlock some kind of value. let's move on and talk about

google considering pulling its news service from europe, in light of a controversial copyright law. if passed it would allow publ h publishers to demand payments whenever their articles show up on google. this could be a big blow for web users. >> web users would still get a chance to link to the articles, but can we show you what it could look like if they didn't show you the excerpt from the news article, and it looks like you're waiting for the page to load think about the small publishers forced to charge the aggregators in order to show the exempt or the thumbnails the law requires spanish publicati publications, and you know what happened their web traffic dropped by 13%. >> i love those snippets, because you get the local paper,

but they have a better article about seattle or whatever than the big guys do. andably one analysis, the one publishers will get it >> this doesn't rep at at revenue they get is not. >> but critics say it may not be accurate, because they go on t link to other things secondly they're saying this could be a big pr move at pair of overtime pulp games led to a ratings -- averaging

nearly 54 million viewers, the second most watched in the past 42 years, according to nielsen i would have thought 30 million, but 54 million >> you have to be careful with these numbers. obviously we know it was an overtime game, but just remember, that is the average viewership so 54 is the average the entire way, but remember rbs and fox alternate the time slots so last year -- >> i don't care about the growth number i'm saying to get anyone in america, we're so bifurcated. >> there's a lot more people in america than 40 years. if it took you 40 years to beat that number. >> doesn't this justify the incredible sticker prices? >> it depends on what they paid.

>> there was bad weather all over the nation, and people were forced to be inside. >> now you know everybody about those four teams. >> they were exciting. >> i watched all of it, and i got to say maybe the reason way was not a good way there's so much controversy around both of those games, that it just drew people in to watch the train wreck. there were a lot of people who believed that tom brady against patrick ma homes would eventually go down the way it did, but it took a couple bad calls and made everybody erupt they all wanted to see what was happening, so maybe that was the driving force. maybe the nfl didn't have its finest moment. >> i'm just not a pats fan the same thing happened with the saints and rams. >> i wish the chiefs had made it finally this, united says it's reviews an incident that left

250 passengers stranded for at least 12 hours in a remove airfield in canada another black eye for the company, you would think, but they also just reported strong results. >> i question -- i question their crisis response team, why they didn't get a charter plane up there >> if they know it's going to be -- >> everyone forget about the guy being dragged off the plane, and people will forget about this. >> but you would be live individual. >> only 250 people. >> why couldn't they have done something? >> remote location, the size of that plane those planes aren't easily available.

>> and this is a medical emergency that made the plane land the passengers rights on the plane is going to help you. >> it's the crisis response that matters. it's how you react, and united keeps proving over and over again. >> they don't know it's a crisis, though. thank you, guys. it's called the tech lash, anger at silicon valley giants over everything from sky-high housing costs to privacy concerns. the founder of sun microsystems maes in on that. after this

welcome back to "the exchanges. we're off session lows right now we're down 371 only two stocks are positive right now. the backlash against big tech, here's what marc ben dioff told us this morning >> we have a real problem. is it because of the tech sector >> it is because of the tech sector. and his push to revolutionize the real estate world. scott, thank you so much for your time. welcome. what do you think about this backlash if you know it's growing, i liken tech as the new big wall

street, and we know how that ended. how do people push back? >> it's getting quite complicated, and i'm not an expert, no longer being a ceo, i don't have to take too many positions. i'm a believer in smaller government, more personal responsibility, a more fluid private sector, which gets everybody to work and everybody doing the right things anything that asks the government to step in, makes me very nervous. >> many of these companies are asking the government to do more, we basket universal basic income, or apple's call to say we want a data clearinghouse why don't they have more of your ethos?

i don't think any of them have studied human nature there's a world of train wrecks out there if you don't have financial freedom and liberties, you won't have personal freedom i real the sherman andy trust act, and governments are corrupt, they're inefficient, they overcharge when people say, well would you sake ma microsoft is taking a positive step, or

does not even that get at what you see is the core problem? >> you're never going to solve equality, because, you know, some people work harder, some people are smarter, some people are luckier. you're not going to solve that problem, but there's no question that capitalism and the private sector have brought more people out of the poverty than any institution we have, and the governments have caused more corruption, caused more poverty in so many areas and places. i'm not an arcist, but there are some simple rules for government -- insurance, finance, health care, education, they booger those up badly the more we minimize their roles in those spaces, the better off we are. >> that's an interesting transition to the real estate right now. every realtor uses the mls listing system we have all looked for houses that way you're saying it doesn't have to be that way. i'm going to undermine it and go

around you how is this going to work? >> the mls, and the signs they put up sunday afternoon, you north, in front of driveways is sort of the equivalent of raising your hand to try to hail a cab. we have moved to uber. we're providing a cloud-based environment, where you can sell your house, use our a.i. and big data engineers to match buyers with sellers, and to simplify what is a -- the crazy paperw yu do, we're making it simple and cutting the cost of selling a house on average $20,000. >> this entire industry is going to throw the book at you, aren't they they must be going, what are you doing? >> all cab companies threw the books at uber. you're going to change -- if you

have a broker in your job title, the internet is goods to disintermediate you. nothing that is changed on the mls and the commission structures, and in fact the work has gone down. most people go to zillow or to the web to their house they're not going to the brother and looking for the signs on the driveway they're doing less work for the same amount of money they were doing pre-internet. >> i will say i had a great experience with my real estate agent, but i'm interested to see where it goes. maybe they'll have warren buffett about it. >> our service people are all very nice also. >> scott, thank you very much for joining us it's day 32 of the government shutdown, and while tsa workers aren't showing up, this is having a major impact on carriers we're going to talk about how

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and the army taught me a lot about commitment. which i apply to my life and my work. at comcast we're commited to delivering the best experience possible, by being on time everytime. and if we are ever late, we'll give you a automatic twenty dollar credit. my name is antonio and i'm a technician at comcast. we're working to make things simple, easy and awesome. welcome back we're in week five of the government shutdown. it's not just having a big impact on the airports but now

hitting the airlines too philip lebeau joining us we should have asked you about the united airline earlier. >> people getting off in an international area without customs there. a lot of things conspired for those events there not a good situation for the people on the plane there. >> what's happening? we know about the tsa agents, the shortages at airports, the lines but you're saying the airlines themselves are hit by the shutdown >> two in particular delta. on january 31st, delta scheduled to begin flying the newest plane. a-220. in order for those flights to begin, the faa needs to do a final certification. delta is still waiting for the approval and until they get that, they are pushing day by day saying, okay, we still think we can fly at some point though, they're going to have to do the flight with a different plane an then just push back the debut of the a-220 at some point. and then southwest is going to

be starting service from california to hawaii and then within the islands of hawaii, they were expected to start selling tickets and then maybe start flights early this year. well, you need top certification, kelly that essentially means the faa has to say, look, these planes are approved technically to fly long distances over large bodies of water any plane that's doing a long flight over the ocean needs that they can't get that approval because the faa workers are furloughed we're waiting to see when that might change for southwest remember, they report earnings this week. gary kelly, the ceo, no doubt has some comments on the effect of the government shutdown >> thank you, philip lebeau in chicago. the fight for content wages on as apple fights to strike a megadeal with producer jj abrams too late for apple to win the content war? that's next. hey there people eligible for medicare.

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academy award leaving apple the phantom at the oscars and signed famed director jj abrams to a blockbuster, half billion deal but too late for apple to get in on the game? executive editor of film and media at variety and our own julia boorstin how likely is it that apple lands jj abrams who might say, i'd rather go somewhere like disney maybe even like comcast with theme parks and i can kind of build my brand that way? >> we did reach out both to jj abrams and bad robot as well as apple. they gave us a no comment. but i have been talking to various sources on all sides of this and what i'm hearing from a number of different people is they have been exploratory talks. this is preliminary but apple is interested in signing big names. they have two tv shows in the works with jj abrams but not many out there like jj abrams anymore. if you look at the fact people like ryan murphy has been snapped up by netflix.

scarcity of huge name talent as they get ready to launch some sort of streaming service. >> i don't know why apple is trying to do this itself when it's one thing to vie against the traditional players who might have theme parks but against the streamers, how in the world do you take on netflix? why even bother trying >> i think this is a statement maker, right if they sign jj abrams, it's a sign of just how serious they are about getting into the streaming space because right now, there's no hotter name than jj abrams. >> we had ben thompson weigh on the dominance of netflix so confident in their position, they're effectively stating if customers choose to watch tv period, they will choose netflix. the companies knows the model is that much better are they right why shouldn't apple buy netflix instead of trying to build this out itself >> there's a silicon valley predisposition to build something yourself rather than just acquire it but you're right. apple's plans for the entertainment space are somewhat amorphous. they signed deals with reese

witherspoon and oprah and the big name route right now but unclear how they plan to take on netflix and win. >> and get the kind of scale they need. they might have a hit show here or there netflix has thousands of things to pick from. >> but it will be interesting to see what apple is launching. we do expect them to launch some sort of streaming service and for that, you need a volume of content but might be looking for the premium brand names. jj abrams and reese witherspoon, with the mass content that's global in scale the way netflix played this and looking at how apple might use this and fit it as an apple music add-on as part of the broader portfolio whereas netflix is a specific business model, about the subscription service and apple wants to lock you into the family of devices. >> but first, jj abrams. let's see if that happens first.

julia boorstin and brentlang thank you for joining us i'll join tyler and melissa on "power lunch" and begins right now. >> it sure does, kelly see you in just a moment welcome, everybody i'm tyler mathisen along with melissa lee and here's what's new at 2:00. growing fears about the trade war with china and its economy how hard is it going to be to get a trade deal done? new news to tell you about this hour plus, has this recent rally in the stock market gotten ahead of itself by a little bit? and why a new round of bank mergers may be coming. that's all on "power lunch" which starts right now welcome to "power lunch. i'm melissa lee. trade in the global economy front and center the dow, s&p, and nasdaq posting the first drop in five sessions. the dow dropping one point 420 points the s&p 500 dipping into correction territory right now, d