tv Street Signs CNBC January 23, 2019 4:00am-5:00am EST
4:01 am
vees premier coming at the end of the month there were no other intermediate meetings scheduled fears of a global slowdown awaying on sentiments with the ceos of europe's corporate giants agreeing there are areas of concern >> i am concerned about increased volatility in the world and some regions potentially slowing down, europe or china, and, of course, having refoeked phillipson health care, this is a market that is fairly resilient. resign former secretary of state john kerry sends president trump a clear message telling the cnbc audience the u.s. leader should step down. also calling the government shutdown a disgrace. >> of course, i'm embarrassed by it it's embarrassing for our government it's embarrassing for our country.
4:02 am
welcome to "street signs" brought to you from the swiss alps once again today. investors, leaders, policymakers here are keeping an eye on markets are u.s. equity markets closing in the red the s&p, in fact, falling back into correction territory. this on a report that suggested trade talks between the u.s. and china had stalled. however, speaking first on cnbc, white house economic advisor larry kudlow denied that any official meetings have been canceled >> the story is not true.
4:03 am
>> we will be crossing live to the main stage here at davos from 1500 cet as the chinese vice president addresses delegates at the world economic forum. you certainly don't want to miss that ahead of those comments, cnbc had learned that u.s. officials had rejected preparetory trade talks. according to our source, the discussions had been called off due it a lack of progress. specifically, over the enforcement of intellectual property rules the white house responded saying the negotiating team remain in touch in preparation for high level talks at the he wantend oe month. meanwhile, president trump won't back down on his tough stance towards china unless beijing makes real structural reforms to under the circumstances economy. this according to reuters.
4:04 am
delegates have been telling us that a trade war is at the heart of the trade tensions. >> australia took a position that we would not allow huawei to participate that's what we believe speaks to some of the inherent weaknesses with respect to huawei that we were concerned about if we didnfferent have a reason, we would have taken a different position >> they're going to operate in a domestic economy that's enough for huawei to thrive we are seeing eastern countries actually defying the demands of the u.s. and saying this is better technology. it's cheaper it's 20 years ahead. if we don't adopt it, that comes -- we're falling victim to that >> i think technology can substitute for a lot of labor in terms of cost savings, and all of our firms are looking to employ technology where they can. there's a technology arms race going on out there >> i don't want any dispute.
4:05 am
clearly, we have issues in terms of the relationship, and, you know, the reforms that need to be made on the current wto framework. stheel work with all the partners kearns with a european slowdown have arisen following a raft of weak data. ceo speaking to cnbc have pointed oissues in the continent's labor market >> we see that there is wage inflation in the country, in the areas where you have really scarcity, and if you have still today, like countries, i would say -- you still today at 9% unemployment overall, and the youth unemployment even at 17% there is no pressure on the
4:06 am
supply, and that's why you don't see a really big wage inflation. we think that it's tied to productivity in many places, and in many places it hasn't been that great in the end we also believe that another impact of technology and globalization is full and complete transparency of your competitive position as it relates to wages you also have this impact that there's full transparency, which we believe acts as a dampener. >> there's no real signs there that there's a recession on the horizon. for sure not the slowdown is to be expected over a lot of uncertainties that are going on in the world.
4:07 am
if you put that in the mix, there will be a bit of a slowdown we'll have to work with that i'm now joined by guy ryder, with the ilo, joining me here. it's a pleasure to have you on the show based on employment trends, what's your take >> i think we do need to be concerned about the current situation. you just look at the figures from stock markets where there is a agree of uncertainty out here i think we also need to look at what is the importance of people on the labor markets what are people's working lives looking like right now, and what can they reasonably expect their working lives to look like in the next couple of years, and there i would say the defining characteristic is real
4:08 am
uncertainty. i think we're in a moment of extraordinary change we talk about technology in particular, and i think this breeds a certain disorientation in people's thinking i think that effects our politics as well >> perhaps anxiety, too, over what happens to wages. that's something we've been talking about. i know various studies have shown great employment figures as the economy strengthened. especially up until now. yet, wage growth hasn't been exactly where the economists want it to be. what do you think is behind that >> wages are not following either the tightening of labor markets, and they're not certainly following productivity growth that's been the case for a matter of decades. people don't feel even if unemployment figures are looking better, i don't think they really feel the employment in their pay package, and, therefore, in their living standards.
4:09 am
>> we're seeing direct employment relationship, that permanent relationship between employer and employee where there were wage fixing mechanisms that i tended to be better in moving people forward. they're not there any longer you have a rather weird situation where the government is sometimes exalting employers to give a hike to the wages. we need this >> you can't separate this problem, if you will, from what's going on in the greater conversation here about pop lichl, broader frustration with feeling that perhaps you aren't better off than the generation before you what's the solution? >> i think the politics of pop lichl, if you can call it that, is populism of the forgotten man or woman i think that applies both sides of the atlantic, for example what do you do i think you really have to look at our labor markets, the institutions of our labor markets, and start investing in
4:10 am
them again we've just put out a report on the future of work where we say, look, if you want to move forward and create the sort of perspective for the future that we want, let's invest in people. that means skills. that means a social protection let's invest in the institutions of the labor market. all of these mechanisms that we've had for a very long time to make sure that the benefits of growth are shared out at a reasonable basis of fairness, and then invest in the jobs of the future where they're coming from, and that's also a big question >> what role will immigration play in the jobs of the future, because there was a very interesting survey released to coordinate with davos here at the forum talking about the fact that the majority of people do welcome immigration. yet, we hear the political rhetoric out there, and it does seem as though this opinion is being drowned out by some few rather loud voices how do you change that dialogue? >> isn't the great pair docks of our time that the economics in favor of migration have probably never been more compelling, but the social and political
4:11 am
obstacles to migration are getting worse and worse. we've got this very unpleasant and i think very damaging toxicity in the discourse on migration. the united nations tried to adopt this global impact on migration. i think you have to give people confidence new grags is going to be managed in such a way, and i think equal treatment is the key to all of this working conditions are not going to be undermined or set back by other people coming in, and by the same token, the people who are up there for migration, they get a fair deal. it's pretty basic proposition. i actually think everybody winds out winning from that equal treatment approach >> well, we'll leave it there on that positive note it's a pleasure to have you on the show it's guy ryder, director general of the ilo plenty more coming up here from davos coming up, we'll be speaking to the chairman of india's mahindra
4:12 am
group and how they're responding to the most recent global headwinds. we'll also be speaking to liam fox coming up. the time-limited irish backstop will be useful we will discuss brexit preparations with the u.k.'s national trade minister, liam fox. don't go anywhere. ke i feel baby then come on, ♪ ♪ oh come on ♪ let's get it on applebee's. now that's eatin' good in the neighborhood. in't easy. 12 hours? 20 dogs? where's your belly rubs? after a day of chasing dogs you shouldn't have to chase down payments. (vo) send invoices and accept payments to get paid twice as fast. (danny) it's time to get yours! (vo) quickbooks. backing you.
4:13 am
♪ did you know you can save money by using dish soap to clean grease on more than dishes? using multiple cleaners on grease can be expensive, and sometimes ineffective. for better value, tackle grease with dawn ultra. dawn is for more than just dishes. it provides 3x more grease cleaning power per drop, which cuts through tough kitchen messes, pre-treats laundry stains, and even tackles grease build-up on car rims. tackle tough greasy messes around your home, and save money with dawn ultra. brand power. helping you better.
4:14 am
and the army taught me a lot about commitment. which i apply to my life and my work. at comcast we're commited to delivering the best experience possible, by being on time everytime. and if we are ever late, we'll give you a automatic twenty dollar credit. my name is antonio and i'm a technician at comcast. we're working to make things simple, easy and awesome.
4:15 am
welcome back to the show while the economy has not been adversely affected by the partial government shutdown, that is the view of larry kudlow, director of the national economic council in an interview with cnbc, kudlow said he expected to see snapback straight away the u.s. government has been in a partial shutdown for 32 days now, in an interview with cnbc's ta tanya briar, former secretary of state john kerry, lashed out at donald trump's administration. >> it's a massive failure of our democratic process to work, to
4:16 am
function effectively it represents a stubbornness that is almost childish except the consequences are i don't feel enormously severe i mean, we have people now who are working for the federal government aor driving uber or finding part-time jobs who can't pay their bills. it's utterly disgraceful utterly disgraceful. >> are you embarrassed by it >> of course, i'm embarrassed by it you know, it's -- it's embarrassing for our government. it's embarrassing for our country. >> well, i'm pleased to say i'm now joined by chairman of the mahindra group it's a pleasure to have you on the show here. >> my pleasure, too. >> you are among multi-national countries based in india, but those that have expressed quite a bit of confidence in the united states and your investments there. what a difference a year makes, though we're talking about the shutdown as just one area of concern among investors now when they look to the u.s. economy
4:17 am
you were here last year. you spoke with president trump who was here in davos this year -- sitting out this year, i should say what do you make of the u.s. economy today? are you still as optimistic as you were >> my view on the u.s. economy, nancy, has always been a very long-term view, and you know the u.s. economy has always gone through periods when there have been nay sayers talking about imminent erosion of the economy. sooichb firsthand the quality of the economy. america always manages to dust itself off and get back on the road i'm a long-term believer of investments over the very long-te long-term. all the people talking about grave danger in the short-term, i think, are exaggerating the matter the fundamental of the economy is strong. yes, the shutdown is going to shave, youen know, percentage point off the gdp, but frankly, the underlying economics are good what we are trying to sell
4:18 am
demand is strong both for our i.t. products and automotive i remain very bullish. >> even if things get worse in the way of stalemate, because it wasn't so long ago that people were more optimistic about the progression pictures of, let's say, an infrastructure deal going through. >> well, you know, how long can this last? i mean, seriously. i mean, i'm 63 you know, i take a very long-term view of things this shutdown support going to be forever clearly, there's going to be short-term pain for those who are not getting the paychecks but yet are forced to work i ask somebody do they pay them back with interest, and i believe not. there's going to be pain >> let's talk a bit more about your automotive business and i know you have talked to ford and collaboration. let's talk about what you hope to achieve >> we actually had a joint venture with ford back in the 1990s. in fact, we were their partners when they chose to enter india as a company we formed mahindra ford.
4:19 am
then we chose to go our own way. we were really their introductory service into india. we learned technology from them. now in this next generation, every automotive company is seeing where they can get scale, where they can combat volatility today as partners and friends, we turn to each other, and that is what we are working through there are some very clear programs we are doing. there are many items that will build substantial value. >> volkswagen and ford just announced their own collaboration. i mean, did that get out in front of you does that change your support in any way. >> not at all. i believe that ford's interest in us is in filling some of the gaps they have in terms of frug ill innovation, low cost
4:20 am
products, ability to market in emerging countries those are the kinds of needs that we feel which volkswagen cut. i think ford is right in being eclectic and looking anywhere it can for finding value. >> looking for broadly at your global manufacturing footprint, how concerned are you that the texts between the u.s. and china haven't been resolved, or are you growing a bit more optimistic that a deal has been reached? >> i'm beginning to sound like i'm addicted terminally to optimism i hate to say this, because i don't want to sound like somebody profiting from what is essentially not a great situation, not trade wars, but think about it don't you think india could actually benefit from tensions amid china >> haven't they already? >> i think they probably have. people are already looking at india as an alternative.
4:21 am
i think we could pivot away from china and every country in the world. >> it's been an absolute pleasure the chairman of the mahindra group with me. thank you for your time. still to come here from davos from the world economic forum, i'm pleased to say we'll be asking the u.k.'s international trade minister, liam fox, what his delegates make of brexit and the political deadlock in westminster. you certainly don't want to miss that one and british prime minister theresa may will take her brexit plan b back to parliament next week, hoping to win over mps with a promise of further concessions from the e.u., but the uncertainty is still causing concern for our guests >> you have a large presence in united kingdom in research, in supporting health care customers, and, obviously, it's an important market to us.
4:22 am
we are still concerned >> there's still hope that can be a deal between the european union and the u.k. that will be good for everyone both in europe and the u.k. for portugal, the brexit if it is uncontrolled -- the u.k. is the fourth largest trading partner, and the for customer for service is particularly tourism. >> i was pleased with liam to be the very first country with whom we launched a bilateral agreement to commence fast-tracking an fta i think we can certainly do it i mean, speaking frankly, the u.k. needs to sort out where it's ultimately going to go.
4:23 am
and i'm pleased to say i'm joined now by liam fox, the u.k.'s international trade secretary. sir, it is a pleasure to have you on the show. last time we spoke a few months ago in singapore, a very different setting. i have to admit, though, still the same unsesht hanging over brexit from the last time we spoke, and a lot of business leaders, policymakers here are very concerned still about the ultimate outcome of brexit. >> the u. can k. legal system -- our labor laws and tax environments in fact, we speak english. our ip protection. good universities. access to tech those are all reasons why
4:24 am
investors who are looking long-term, not at the next 18 months, are still investing in the u.k. in terms of the brexit, i've been making the point to my opposite numbers here that we want there to be a deal. we hope there will be a deal we expect there will be a deal, but there is a chance that there won't be, and they need to make prngss for that no deal, including making bilateral arngsments with the u.k. where we are a party to a trade agreement by the virtue of our membership of the european union. >> when they ask you what the odds of a deal are, what do you say? >> i said i have a better chance of predicting the lottery. the chance of changing that law is limited
4:25 am
therefore, unless we get a deal, the no deal that everyone seems to want to avoid will happen i think there's been since the defeat of the government over the previous proposals, there's been a very strong impetus to work for a deal for both those who remain and those who leave in the referendum. >> when you speak to your counterparts, european counterparts here in davos, do you sense a willingness that their governments are willing to budge. especially on the key issue, which continues to be the irish border and the backstop? to set the scene for what could be an effective fta between the
4:26 am
u.k. and e.u >> before we get there there's been talk of amendments on the table for the next vote, including an extension of article 50 process do you think that's inevitable >> if you extend the article 50 process to give britain more time in any negotiation, it's likely to trigger britain's participation in the next european elections >> you could extend with the hard line for the may vote. >> i think we have promised we would leave, and a lot of this is not about economics it's about the politics and the credibility of the political process. parliament in britain gave the
4:27 am
voters the choice on the e.u., and they said we will honor that referendum result. >> there you get parliament from the voters in the way that you seem fragmented of european politics i don't want to see that in britain. >> i wonder, too, if it fuels the populist anger out there so much of the discussion here about populist politics, how to quell it, if you will, and we're talking about something that those in parliament would be saying, oh, the voters didn't really know what they wanted here do you think that exacerbates the problem, how we got here in the first place?
4:28 am
>> totally different from what's happening in europe where there's fragmentation. the main parties have just fizzled away i don't want to see that fragmentation in british politics >> do you think this sunset clause that has been touted, do you think e.u. will get on board? >> i think we need to explore all the possible ways. if you take it down to its most basic, we do not there to be a hard border with ireland. >> it's surely possible for us
4:29 am
to find a mechanism given that we both want the same end point to get there >> you talked about the fact that you don't want to say in the customs union because that would deliver on the result of the vote initially, but isn't that still a less bad outcome, if you will, than a no deal. wouldn't you prifr in the customs union over crashing out completely >> everything delivers what the people voted for, and ultimately i go back to the instruction we were given by the voters they want to leave the european union. if we were unable to have a trade policy, if we were unable to determine the countries we make agreements with in the future, if we have to have an external tariff, it's hugely restricting on what we can do. it's how you can get into a free trade agreement with the u.s. or how we could get global liberalization of services through ftas if we were unable to do that the price would be very high i think that the democratic pushback in the u.k. would also be very high.
4:30 am
>> the top five of those agreements make up eight of that 11 some countries are still saying they don't want to put the work in to making these preparations because they believe there will be a deal. my advice is that your businesses will never criticize you for being over prepared. they will certainly criticize you for being underprepared. therefore, put in the extra work >> and if they are under prepared, can you give us a better idea of what the no deal scenario looks like, you because it's often talked about, but when it comes to the actual tariffs you'll face on day one after the deadline, falling back into wto rules, what does that actually mean? >> well, at the moment all these
4:31 am
agreements give us preferential access, and they deal not just with tariffs, but, of course, non-tariff barriers, which are the biggest impediments potentially to trade some countries say to us, well, we assume that there will be an agreement, and we can look to our future trading relationship. my argument is any short-term disruption would you still have backed the leave campaign? >> i'm a institutional leave to explain it to american voters, it's like having a court that has a higher authority than the prime minister sit in ottawa and tells the supreme court what to do >> i want to control the legal system to which i'm under. i do not want it to belong to a foreign power, which i view has
4:32 am
happened in the european union they say, yeah, absolutely, we would never accept that. >> we've never had a referendum. thank you so much for your time. that is liam fox, the u.k. international trade secretary with me. still to come here from dav davos, we'll talk to jane sun about how potential slowing growth in china could impact customers. stay with us
4:36 am
premier come at the end of the month. there is every are no other intermediate meetings scheduled. >> fears of a global slowdown also weighing on sentiment with the ceos of europe's corporate giants agreeing there are areas of concern >> i am concerned about increased volatility in a world and some regions potentially slowing down europe or china. of course, having refocused phillipson health care, this is a market that is value-resistant. >> brexit end game u.k. trade secretary liam fox says parliament is motivated to pass envy after last kweek's historic defeat. he says a no deal could still happen >> since the defeat of the government over the previous proposals there's been a very strong impetus to work for a deal for both those remain and those that will leave in the referend referendum >> deutsche bank says that it's cooperating with u.s.
4:37 am
authorities, but denies there is a probe into its role of the money laundering scandal the trade war is becoming a tech war that is the message we have been hearing right here in davos. >> i think that there is dual concern it will put everything at risk at the same time so there is a new world happening with architecture to do proper isolation of things. >> the trade war is actually driven by technology changes, which are underlying on all that's happening in the economy
4:38 am
today. i think this is something that is going to continue over time there is a division between the technology developments in u.s. and in china >> given the interdependency, and the reason we build it is because it's good for everybody. think about it the u.s. role, think about the chinese role in the last 40 years. we all benefitted. there is some problem, no doubt about that solving the problem requires more collaboration constructively what we're experiencing on a short-term -- i call it discovery phase where we all relook at what happened and say, oh, gee, china hasn't followed the promises, and it has cost some imbalance between employment and the technology collaboration. >> i'm pleased to say i'm now joined by jalen, ceo of seatrip.
4:39 am
jane, good to have you on the program. >> thanks for having me. >> we were just listening to some of the attendees here talking about their concerns around the u.s.-china tensions for your business, have you seen any meaningful change in outbound travel from china, people postponing plans to go to the united states orbooking tho? >> travel has its own power. particularly in the stage. why a lot of countries are trying to believe in the power we have 200 million customers, and last year we booked about 100 million high speed railway tickets. more than 350 million international tickets around the world. there are a couple of things that's very important for our travellers one is visa restriction. many countries give benavideza favorable visas who have lots of
4:40 am
customers. the second thing is also the direct flights from one city to another. so, for example, from shanghai, as long as the flight is open up, we will be able to send a lot of customers to these countries. historically they have been getting a lot of customers >> you are talking about european countries primarily there, so in the united states has there been a change in travel patterns? >> u.s. in chinese is translated to be -- it's a beautiful country. literally. it's translated into a beautiful country. there is huge interest for parents to send children to go to the summer camp in the summer, to observe the eastern holidays, and christmas, says so there are lots of potential if both countries can collaborate, and we very much like to bring
4:41 am
more customers to understand the u.s. culture, but i think the trade war probably is loose, loose on both sides. if you ask the economists in the world, maybe 99% of the economies will advise -- avoid this kind of friction. >> i wonder about your business traveller demand, too, because i know that's a big important piece of the customer pile that you service here we consider what's happening with huawei and canada and china specifically as well when it comes to the business traveller specifically, are you seeing less outbound travel to countries including canada >> for sea trip we target high-end customers, so they are very resilient top travel destination for the chinese new year is australia, new zealand. for asian countries, it's thailand and japan because these
4:42 am
countries offer very good products for our customers thereby some concerns that the market is getting saturated. where will the growth come from? is it from different areas within china, different segments of the society, or does it need to be outground? >> china itself still has a long way to go for growth if you look at gdp per capita, we are only reaching 8,000 per person that is only reaching the level people can start to travel that's very exciting and also, for chinese government, it's building high-speed railway everywhere, so we are penetrating further into the china market. that growth is very robust on top of that, a more affluent chinese people are going abroad. historically for 1,000 years, chinese kids are taught by confusion that it is better to
4:43 am
travel 10,000 miles than to read 10,000 books travel has its own power to bring chinese people to understand the world better, and we hope we can also bring more customers from the rest of the world to china >> jane, it's about an a pleasure having the show thank you so much for speaking to cnbc. that is jane sun there, ceo of seatrip. >> thank you a bit of corporate news for you, though. carfour has jumped to the top of the stock 600 after reporting fourth quarter growth and its core french market was hit by the yellow vest protests q4 sales at the largest supermarket came in at $22.6 billion euros broadly in line with expectations. quarter-on-quarter growth was down a reflection of slightly weaker french performance overall the operating profits for 2018 are also expected to come in lower when it announces full year results that is next month
4:44 am
ahold delhaize has reported growth for the key christmas period on-line sales have jumped 5% net sales were lower at 62.8 billion euros. the dutch retailer says it expects profits at the higher end of guidance. coming up, the rate debate we will discuss with yale professor robert shiler. that is coming up next with tremfya®, you can get clearer. and stay clearer. in fact, most patients who saw 90% clearer skin at 28 weeks stayed clearer through 48 weeks. tremfya® works better than humira® at providing clearer skin and more patients were symptom free with tremfya®. tremfya® may lower your ability to fight infections and may increase your risk of infections. before treatment, your doctor should check you for infections and tuberculosis.
4:45 am
tell your doctor if you have an infection or have symptoms such as: fever, sweats, chills, muscle aches or cough. before starting tremfya® tell your doctor if you plan to or have recently received a vaccine. ask your doctor about tremfya®. tremfya®. because you deserve to stay clearer. janssen wants to help you explore cost support options. my mom washes the dishes... ...before she puts them in the dishwasher. so what does the dishwasher do? cascade platinum does the work for you, prewashing and removing stuck-on foods, the first time. wow, that's clean! cascade platinum. ♪ lookin' better than a body has a right to ♪ ♪ and shakin' me up so applebee's all you can eat is back. now with shrimp. now that's eatin' good in the neighborhood.
4:47 am
sfliefrmgt yesterday we had a bit of a risk-off session towards the close, and that mooed is really transpiring in the european equities this morning. you can see the only index trading in the green the rest are all below the flat line ftse 100 down 4% the german index down about .2%. ftse down .1%. some of the sectors that are underperforming today, banks, autos, and also the tech sector as well in terms of composition.
4:48 am
now, let's move on and take a look at how yields are fairing we've got the ten-year bund at 24 basis points at ten-year u.s. at 276 we've also rallied a little bit in line with the risk-off action we had an equity market overnight. of course, let's not forget that we have a big central bank meeting to look forward to tomorrow in the shape of the ecb. expecting lots of price action in ten-year bunds and ecbs around that event. nancy. questions are being raised over central bank monetary policy on both sides of the pond our guests have offered a range of solutions for the ecb and the fed. >> last year we were too low because of the market. you know, after we expected much stronger press increases, and today we come down by the liquidity provided by the market let's see what happens this
4:49 am
year >> the ecb, i think that should just continue on the current path of keeping the policy where it is. just see how things pan out at this moment. i would just stay with what we are doing, and just react on the back of some of the developments >> the minutes are clear that as they reach the neutral rate, they have said we have to be careful now and watch -- we're data dependent, and that is meeting the meeting, and analogy. think of them as climbing one of these mountains hand hold to hand hold. they've reached the path, and now the question is what they're going to do, and that's dependent on data. >> so for more i'm pleased to say i'm joined by robert shiller, yale university great to have you on the show today. well, the fed timeline is just one of the market ang zbliets hanging out there, if you will, in addition to the u.s.-china trade tensions and the
4:50 am
uncertain uncertainty in that factor markets have been readjusted in their own expectations of what the fed will do this year. do you think the markets have it right? >> i think that the fed has been kind of predictable. and mild ever since janet yellin i don't think that it's -- it's a powerful narrative, but it's not a narrative that would generate a turning point in the market >> what would then is. >> i'm thinking that some narratives that have been live in the recent past might come back, and i'm thinking particularly of the narrative that began in the beginning of 20 2018 january, february, we had a 10% decline correction in the market we had another downturn between september and christmas eve of
4:51 am
last year that almost on the s&p 500 it went down from peak to trough 19.8% it almost made this classical so-called definition of a bear market these things, i think, weigh on people's minds there's a sense that maybe it's finished, and for people who see a buy signal, or maybe it's going to complete the job and go down further >> that seems to be a big question are we seeing a messy correction in a late stage long bull run that we've had, or are we going to really get into the bear market this year what would you predict >> i'm not confident in my ability to predict, but i think there's a risk, yeah the way i categorize it, i categorize risk in terms of narratives this bear market narrative has taken stronghold or bull market. since, you know, the term bear and bull market go back to the
4:52 am
19th century, but you know what, they didn't use them very often. they're really into this we think of the bear now in today's environment, we think of a bear market psychology as a huge driving force or a bull market psychology. >> but there's the market, and then there's the economy they don't alleges tell the same story at the same time i mean, you do have a strong view to what is happening in the u.s. economy >> there's another similar story. if it holds until june it will have tied the record >> there is a feeling abroad that the stock market might be due for some deflating now, obviously, it's been a long time, and we've seen some hints of it. we haven't seen the real -- the
4:53 am
fed is people trying to stabilize markets. they're not trying to -- yeah, i have this quarrel with economists about fundamentals, and i'm writing a book now about called narrative economics i think it's stories that drive markets more than fundamentals at least aggregate stock market. >> there's the story on the fiscal side of things with respect to the side, and that is waening enthusiasm, you might say, here in davos around president trump's own policies we have the shutdown occupying headlines in the united states at a time where many are worried about the fiscal stimulus fading is that a concern you have it's a polarization that we see
4:54 am
in the united states today it makes people nervous. i think it doesn't have any obvious impact on the direction of the market. if we do get a deal between the u.s. and china, at least a deal on the tariffs, trade issue alone, my understanding is the structural issues may have to come from a longer-term resolution do you think that will be enough to avoid slipping into the bear market as we were talking about? >> that's only one part of trump. i think it's more the broad psychological environment that matters.
4:55 am
that seems to me to be something that inhibits long-run growth. that's what matters more the shutdown is a nuisance it might take a few tenths of a percent off of gdp growth. the tech war, if it develops into something serious, it can inhibit our ability to progress. that's something more formidable to worry about >> i wish we could leave it somewhere more optimistic. i'm afraid that's all we have time for, though >> sometime i'll be optimistic >> we'll hold you to it. thank you for joining me today yesterday fortunes seem to be turning s&p looks to open up about five
4:56 am
points higher. dow about 75 points higher remember, we're right in the middle of earnings season. some names to watch out for today at comcast, the parent owner of this company, of course, at procter & gamble also reports, and we also have ford after the close as well. that is it from "street signs" here in london >> stay with us after the break. we'll be speaking to the ceo ivan arriagada don't miss it. i'm a veteran
4:59 am
and the army taught me a lot about commitment. which i apply to my life and my work. at comcast we're commited to delivering the best experience possible, by being on time everytime. and if we are ever late, we'll give you a automatic twenty dollar credit. my name is antonio and i'm a technician at comcast. we're working to make things simple, easy and awesome.
5:00 am
>> stocks looking to rebound after a four-day winning streak. trade turmoil front and center the white house shooting down reports of a canceled meeting with china more on the fall-out ahead, and on the record are, the ceo of dow component coca-cola joins us live from davos in just a few minutes. it is wednesday, january 23rd, 2019, and "worldwide exchange" begins right now
69 Views
IN COLLECTIONS
CNBC Television Archive Television Archive News Search ServiceUploaded by TV Archive on