om your valentine's day this year, the sweethearts. you know, the ones with the little phrase. >> that say bite me and stuff like that? >> those are hipster sweethearts. >> only for tyler. >> necco went bankrupt last year. >> that's who makes them, necco? all right. >> "closing bell" starts right now. >> good afternoon. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm wilfred frost. >> and i'm morgan brennan. coming up i'll talk to ameritrade's ceo in a first cnbc interview. >> and jim breyer in davos let's check in on the markets. s&p 500 intra-day splitting the difference from its highs and lows first few hours positive,

next few negative and we are essentially flat with one hour left of trade. the dow, a few individual names making that look like a stronger performance than that is, united technologist procter & gamble giving it half a percent gain. >> earnings the name of the game there. >> indeed. let's start with blue chip stocks morgan has utx and aditi roy let's start with you, seema. >> driven by its beauty segment, thanks to oil of olay. p & g pointed to strength in china, which cfo referenced on the analyst call a number of products raised prices last year the question is whether this trend will hold, if the macro environment worsens in the

coming months. best day in four months, up 4%, and outperforming its rival, kimberly clark wilf >> seema, thank you for that don't forget p & g ceo will speak exclusively to us in davos at 10:00 a.m morgan, you're following united technologies a pop on earnings. >> it is, about 5% up right now. revenue beating as well. best sales growth in over a decade aerospace a huge driver. acquisition of rockwell collins but more commercial and military for pratwell whitney segment profit is expected to grow faster than sales and key cash flow to grow faster than earnings, excluding the separation cost. bottom line here, company is expecting another good year as utc spends billions of dollars

to try to realize more value as three separate companies, a process that's supposed to be finalized -- expected to be finalized next year, wilf. >> is the guidance more than the next quarter >> the way they have phrased it is that 2018 was a strong year, stronger than expected and expect to continue building on that with more growth into 2019. it's interesting they called out the u.s. and north america as an interest of strength and they continue to expect more growth in china. their problem spot, according to their businesses, is europe. >> okay. i'm sure we'll hear that theme from more coming forward as well the china strength certainly one to note. they're also watching ibm, surging today, following its earnings report which, of course, we broke live yesterday on "closing bell." aditi roy is breaking in with those numbers. >> hey, wilf ibm is having its best day, issuing a beat on yearly

guidance, despite revenue growth declining for the second consecutive quarter. largest business unit, technology services and cloud plt forms missing on revenues but its cognitive solutions unit which includes watson, did better than expected focusing on those strategic imperative they bought red hat which is expected to close in the second half of this year. back to you. >> aditi, thank you. joining our closing bell exchange today, we have jewjoul financial, and rick santelli matt, i'll start with you. how do you characterize the trading we saw today with the dow we were up almost 300 points, at the low down 100. it's been another volatile session. and earnings, at least so far, have not seemed to continue the

rally's strength. >> expect continued volatility we think that's more of a strategic change rather than tactical as you get later in the monetary policy cycle, as you get to the place where we are now, people are arguing whether we're neutral, close to neutral or just before neutral, there happens to be an increase in volatility as you get to that point. the volatility we've seen the past couple of months is not a surprise to us, has not been a surprise to us you should expect more volatility as people are unsure. >> since christmas eve, we've seen a rally in the market do you think that's a bull market rally do you think it's going to continue >> not at all, wilf. i think it's a bear market reversal we're operating under that premise and investors should really take this opportunity, if they were sitting through the declines in the fourth quarter of 2018 and they were overly concerned and overexposed, they're now getting that opportunity to lighten up their

portfolio, take more defensive positions. and i think what the market is going to be waiting for, certainly headline, volatility is out there, as matt just alluded to, but earnings coming down the pike from the big tech names. we still believe that the market is going to go through a valuation adjustment these stocks are going to go lower and they will ultimately drag the market with it. >> why do you think it's a bear market >> pause we're in a down trend basically we've seen successive lower lows and lower highs that was kicked off certainly by the fed last year and their accelerating rate sort of policy but ultimately it was truly in the fundamentals companies like apple, facebook, et cetera. as investors started to realize they're starting to see slowing growth, they've had to re-evaluate what they're willing to pay for those companies and even though something like a netflix came out and basically disappointed the stocks, it's

still selling at 50 times forward earnings and even though it's projected to be up 50% as far as eps next year, what happens if those eps start to shrink they'll revalue again and the stock will continue to go lower. >> rick, boj this morning downgraded inflation forecasts when we get to the end of 2019 which of the major central banks do you think will end up being the most dovish? >> i think that it's -- tie goes to the ecb and bank of japan i think they're both going to be competing for that title, wilf i don't see any way around it, actually if they didn't have the nerve, either central bank, totry to do more when times are better, it would be shocking to me that they're going to put their neck on the block at a time when obviously we see a lot of cross currents and the inflation is fierce especially in japan because it imports all its energy and energy prices have been volatile. at the end of the day, their

economies aren't as strong as they were, whether it's in europe or in japan it's true in the states but the state is still the cleanest shirt in the hamper, so to speak, to revive an adage from the credit crisis. it's an ongoing issue of the united states creating a bit of a pressure scenario. we normalized as much as the markets would take, which is much more than all the other large developed economies but it's going to give us a cushion. it will continue, in my opinion, to give us a capital benefit with regard to investors in the future. >> matt, you agree with that >> i do. rick makes some very good points there. the ecb in particular. if you look at what their mandate is, they want a 2% inflation target they haven't hit that 2% inflation target in over 16 years. they're at 1% inflation. if they have a goal to get 2% inflation, they've got rates and quantitative easing programs the last thing they should be doing is reducing that they should be going the other

way, which the bank of japan is doing. they have all their spigots on ecb will have to adjust as well i believe. >> quickly, what's your call on the u.s. top curve >> it looks exactly like it did in '94, '95, where it flattened dramatically but the fed took the appropriate cues from the market, economic decelerating, weakness abroad. if the fed pauses and adjusts to that, it should stay range bound, flat but not inverted, which will allow the economic xhi and the recovery to continue much like it did in the mid '90s they saw it flatten, pause this could happen again here. >> quintin, final word you're looking at copper >> yeah. that's been a great read for us, looking at the overall economic scenario as a leading indicator. and until copper can start to rebound from the 2.5, 2.6 area

here, we believe we'll see slowing growth, not just in the u.s. but abroad as well. >> thank you very much quint tatro, matt. here is what business leaders have told cnbc about the impact it's having. >> democrats and republicans should sit down and finish this issue immediately and compromise that's what they should do and they should make a deal. it's going to get worse for the american public. they shouldn't allow t you see consumer business sky rocket and coming down a bit because of that, because of trade all the noise around the world. >> i think for me, personally, and most people, we're kind of a super goal business and it's damaging for the american brand to have something from the outside doesn't seem to make

sense. >> we've been talking to every ceo in the united states about what's going on back home and the government shutdown. interestingly enough there are now a number of federal workers who are trying to make ends meet being uber drivers. >> yes we love it when new driver partners join the platform this is definitely not how we want new driver partners to join the program. >> how many have you seen join sh. >> we haven't quantified it. it's definitely happening in d.c. and the most needy. we're hoping that this ends. obviously it's out of our control. >> with all these people not working is just not good for them and not good for the country. but i also think that as you look at it, it really does extend for weeks, then you're talking about more and more companies wanting to go public in a shorter and shorter window. >> quite a bit of insights there. so just how close are we to a shutdown resolution? ylan mui has the latest. >> reporter: we are miles away from the resolution. forget the shutdown. they can't even agree on the state of the union here.

nancy pelosi formally blocking the president to come to the house floor to deliver his state of the union on january 29th she said the house would not take up the procedural measure required in order to give the president permission to address the chambers she said no vote on that would happen until the government, once again, reopened also this does not bode well for the votes in the senate that are scheduled tomorrow both republicans and democrats have plans to reopen the government but both of them require bipartisan support to pass the politics of today does not make that look good. also today there's been chatter in the house about a potentially new proposal that would offer the president morme money for border security, $5.7 billion or more that money, though, would not include any funding for a border wall so, it appears that a month into the shutdown, we are still deadlocked and still at square one. guys >> ylan, how precedented is it

to retract the invitation to the state of the union for the president? and if he were to go ahead with it, would that be spun in the president's favor more than the democrats' favor >> we know that the president is perfectly happy to speak at any time and any place i don't know that he would have any problem finding an alternate location it just won't be on the floor of the house or the senate. it feels like a particularly historic moment. not only because of the acrimony involved on both sides here but because the speaker has taken this rather extraordinary step she was just speaking to reporters a little bit ago here at the capital, outside of her office she was asked what would happen if the president showed up for his speech anyway on tuesday she didn't answer but it could, perhaps, get quite difficult if the president tries to demand access to the house floor, demand to speak and folks here have to deny him that right. >> ylan, in terms of this

proposal for $5.7 billion in border security but not a wall, what specifically would that entail there's been so much semantics here the president wanted a cement wall and then there was the steel barrier. >> the steel slats. >> so which -- >> yeah, what they're talking about here is renovations at legal ports of entry they say they're perfectly willing to spend a significant investment at places that already have a physical structure in place legal ports of entry, existing fences anything like that is money they would be willing to spend, investments they would be willing to make, border infrastructure is one of the new buzz words out there they do not want to be seen as giving a dollar or two dollars even to this symbolic wall that the president has called for even though it does seem there could be compromise on the definition of the wall both sides are keenly aware of the optics of this

neither side wants to be on the losing side of that. >> okay. ylan, thank you very much for that still ahead here on "closing bell," v a. com jumping into the streaming wars with a big acquisition. what bob bakich said about that. >> and tim hockey joins us on the back of his company's earnings report. we'll discuss the market volatility, impact of the shutdown and so much more. stay wh itus what do advisors look for in an etf? itus don't just track an index, help me meet a client's need. is the fund built to sell or built to last? etfs are only part of a portfolio. so make it easy to explain. give me a quality fund that helps me get clients closer to their goals. flexshares etfs are designed and managed around investor objectives. so you can advise with confidence. before investing, consider the fund's investment objectives,

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at comcast we're commited to delivering the best experience possible, by being on time everytime. and if we are ever late, we'll give you a automatic twenty dollar credit. my name is antonio and i'm a technician at comcast. we're working to make things simple, easy and awesome. welcome back to "closing bell." 42 minutes left of trade the s&p, though, as we approach the close is flat and the nasdaq slightly low viacom jumping into the streaming wars, buying pluto tv for $340 million david faber spoke with viacom ceo bob bakich earlier.

>> ooirm on the big screen i like that. >> i'm pleased to say you didn't pull any odd faces or anything like that. >> no, i didn't. i was focused on my papers in front of me, trying to make sense of this, as many investors are. it's not a big dollar amount, $340 million, but viacom is making a big deal of the deal itself it's trying to communicate to investors the plans it's trying to make as it navigates the distribution models we all know is taking place in the content business also, of course, the questions about the relevance of viacom's content in this rapidly changing ecosystem led by, of course, netflix, but to soon include the likes of offerings from disney, at&t, time warner, in addition to so many others like amazon and hulu who are already out there. pluto plays in the advertising supporter free streaming space i guess they're calling it avad now. i hadn't heard of that acronym

until bakich talked about it with us. >> we're zigging as everyone is zagging. subscription on demand plays in the avad space, ad supported, largest supported tv streaming service in the u.s i talked about the fact that the market is segmenting over the years, including with you. this product appeals to that entry level free segment you look at ad projections for current time that's an $8 billion ad market projected to go to $13 billion -- $15 billion by '23. so, big, high growth. >> high growth is what they're looking for, of course this, in the face of investor concerns about the likes of a direct tv for which they have a negotiation coming up in the no too distant future to carry those viacom channels. bakish looking for lots of different ways to get the content out there and get paid for it, guys

the question always is, are they still going to be able to have the same dollars in exchange, so to speak, if and when you start to see real dimunition in subscription revenue as people simply don't subscribe any longer to the video service and, b, as you are moving to these platforms in the way they are ad supported but not obviously supported by subscription services speaking of cable, by the way, we also had comcast numbers. i know a number of different questions on that, perhaps, that we can entertain the stock is doing quite well this morning i should say it is now late afternoon. shows you where i have been today. 258,000 total additions being applauded largely by the street. high-speed additions everybody focused on video they only lost 29,000. not bad for our parent company at this point. and as a citizen of the uk, who

had particular interest in sky, don't you? >> i do, david i think interesting on the video line, as you said, that with comcast parent company, there was fewer losses of subscribers than expected on the skyline there were more additions than expected i guess there was so much focus of the price comcast paid for sky and this first set of numbers where it's fully included, skyline flattened as well there was some smoothing of the opex number which i think won't necessarily be be repeated throughout what's often seen as a mature company, it was adding video subscribers. that nowtv platform will be fully incorporated into what nbc is going to offer going forward. >> 164,000 total customer relationship net additions in the fourth quarter and revenue up 5.6% to $5 billion for that

quarter, wilf. there's certainly going to be those who say they overpay no matter what. those who want to compare it to the likes of directv or dish that we're familiar with in this country would be well advised not to at least when you speak to executives at our parent, wilf, who say it's a very different animal do you agree >> for sure. the most different thing i think that sky did was they tackled quicker than any of the u.s. subscribers the threat from online, head-on, straight away they didn't worry quite so much about losing existing revenue streams and that's why their online offering is a bit more mature than traditional media companies taking that on again, we see that today with the viacom acquisition, quite how fierce that will be in the space. >> when it comes to viacom, of course, there will be a lot of content to people free in the same way that 30, 40 years ago

you could have put your aerial up and obviously gotten a lot of content free on comcast guidance to wrap up here, of course, those positive on the stock would say it's still trading below and therefore potentially cheap. they returned 8.4 billion in capital in 2018 but as you well know, wilf, given the debt taken on for the sky acquisition, comcast has suspended its repurchase plan until it takes it down to a level it's more comfortable with. >> david faber, thank you so much, in uptown new york for us at 30 rock. >> avad versus svad. streaming services we've got about 35 minutes until the closing bell right now the dow is up 168 points the s&p is slightly higher as well nasdaq and russell, though, both

slightly in the red. still ahead, amazon is reportedly looking into new ways to undercut shipping costs that could be bad news for fedex and u.p.s., sending those shares lower right now. details straight ahead. >> waiting big earnings after the close. ford, texas instruments, and vegas sands announce those numbers. when you prepare for retirement with pacific life, you can create a lifelong income... so you have the freedom to keep doing whatever is most meaningful to you. a reliable income that lets you retire, without retiring from life. that's the power of pacific. ask your financial professional about pacific life today. first tattoo? yeah relax, amigo, it's gonna look ok. only ok? no worries boss, i'm one of the tattoo artists in the city. uh, aren't you supposed to draw it first?

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welcome back news alert on venezuela.

sue herera has the latest. >> indeed, i do. thank you, morgan. nicolas maduro, the assumed president of venezuela, is breaking diplomatic relations with the united states that is in response to the trump administration earlier today recognizing the opposition leader as the legitimate president of venezuela in response, maduro says venezuela is breaking diplomatic relations with the united states and giving u.s. personnel 72 hours to leave the country also there are reports that maduro is calling on venezuelans to defend the government against what he is calling a, quote, unquote, coup. a number of countries around the globe are joining with the trump administration in recognizing

ju the opposition as the eader. >> coming up, td ameritrade ceo tim hockey we'll ask how all the uncertainty in the market is impacting business and in davos, switzerland where sara eisen has been speaking with the biggest names in business. >> a conversation with early facebook investor and billionaire venture capitalist m breyer which stock he says he would buy over and over again. or to carry on a legacy? its show of strength... or its sign of intelligence? in crossing harsh terrain... or breaking new ground? this is the mercedes-benz suv family. greatness comes in many forms. lease the glc 300 for $479 a month at your local mercedes-benz dealer.

mercedes-benz. the best or nothing. what do advisors look for don't just track an index, help me meet a client's need. is the fund built to sell or built to last? etfs are only part of a portfolio. so make it easy to explain. give me a quality fund that helps me get clients closer to their goals. flexshares etfs are designed and managed around investor objectives. so you can advise with confidence. before investing, consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. go to flexshares.com for a prospectus containing this information. read it carefully.

>> update with sue herera. good afternoon again, sue. >> hello, wilf house speaker nancy pelosi says the president will not be invited to speak before congress until the government has reopened. >> public domain read the letter. >> why not invite him? >> huh >> why not invite him? >> because government is closed. i still make the offer on a mutually agreeable date so that

we may welcome him properly. >> the nurse accused of impregnating an incapacitated woman in a nursing facility making his first appearance in court. nathan sutherland has been charged with one count of sexual assault and one count of vulnerable adult abuse his dna reportedly matched that of the baby's. he is being held under $500,000 cash bond. tiger woods practicing as he prepares for the farmer's insurance open at torrey pines he is an eight-time champion of torrey pines and tees off tomorrow afternoon everybody is going to be watching that's the news update this hour, guys back downtown to you. >> they always do. sue herera, thank you very much, at hk for us. business leaders are gathering in davos, switzerland. sara eisen sat down with breyer's founder and ceo, jim

breyer sara >> thank you, wilfred. early facebook investor and used to be on that company's board is still a big believer in mark zuckerberg and is also finding lots of opportunities right now in ai and still in china. >> i'm two years in to an ai ten-year investment strategy i made six investments in ai last year after receiving approximately 10,000 ai business plans. >> u.s. or china on ai >> in certain areas like facial recognition, china is far ahead. in security solutions sold into governments, the u.s. is catching up but we need to move faster in areas like devices, those -- it's korea and japan on the display devices. but in semi conductors, the u.s. has at least a five-year lead, which is why i love nvidia, intel and so many of the semi conductor stocks long term there will be slowdowns but the

u.s. far and away has at least a five-year lead when it comes to semi conductor technologies. >> i was going to ask how you play this in the public market, this explosion of growth in ai you like it through semis? >> i like it through semis, through some of the companies, sales force, microsoft many of the microsoft companies selling into businesses and commercial accounts. i would buy microsoft again and again and hold it. i really do like what would be the fang stocks, forgetting about valuations for a moment. i would like to spend two to three years on public equity holdings. >> jim breyer bullish on all the fang stocks, microsoft and the semi conductors. back to you guy. >> sara, i'm sitting on the floor of the new york stock exchange, meantime, with tim hockey, td ameritrade ceo. first ever cnbc interview.

tim, great to speak with you. >> great to be here, morgan. market volatility seems to be good for business. has that carried through through this quarter as well >> last quarter it was certainly good for business. we announced earnings last night. good beat, largely driven by volatility lots of revenue growth, which was wonderful. an all-around beat it hasn't carry ied over into ts quarter. it's dissipated a little bit but we still think there's lots of upside left and we'll see. >> in terms of how your clients across your different businesses and services have been responding to the market action we've seen, how would you characterize i categorize it? >> it was an interesting quarter. that was because the first couple of months were very different than the last month but on balance what we saw in general over the full quarter was with the market correction up until christmas, our margin bounds, for example, dropped one

for one with the market drop our cash balances went up. and so now what you're seeing with the rebound and the relief rally, what you've seen as the margin balances starting to creep up again and our institutional clients are putting more money to work. >> in terms of increased activity, who has been doing it? who has been using your different services >> it's broad based. what happens at this point in the cycle, longest bull run ever, et cetera, you get a lol more volatility. vix has returned to a more normalized level you get this -- i think of it as a tipping point between fear and debride. is there another opportunity then another news cycle comes out about trade, potential recession and as a result you get a broader level of interest. we've seen retail client use of our education services up 60% in the last year because they want

to understand what's going on and how to play that particular market. >> in the fifth week of a partial government shutdown, affecting the s.e.c., the pipeline is it affecting you? >> we've asked the question many types. i think a few factors. potentially i thought there would be a cashewsage for those that have to dip into their cash savings or even their investing cash but there hasn't been any affect from that, which shows you that the cash that sits in brokerage accounts tend to be on keeping this strive for potential opportunity for investment as opposed to day-to-day cash. on the other hand, i think the government shutdown is causing some of that market activity, because people are pontificating about what that impact will be on gdp growth. will there, in fact, be a tipping point that says we were expecting 3%, whatever the number is, gdp growth and the longer this goes on it takes an affect on the overall economy and tla in ipos and the effect

that has on the market ipos are loved in my business. so ta take advantage of those ipos when they happen. >> fed policy for this year as well how are you factoring in fed rate hikes this year what are you anticipating? and what would, say, a pause in hikes mean for business? >> given that we have so much cash on our balance sheet, that is a major revenue source for us that has been a significant shift since our last quarter where you're seeing more tail winds from rising interest rates. now the market is a lot less sure and so as a result the impact on us, we've had our earnings call with our analyst today saying revenue growth isn't quite as high as we would have expected for 2018, what will you do? we will always moderate how we invest in our future and we will make adjustments if the revenue growth isn't there. >> tim hockey, thank you for joining us first ever cnbc interview.

>> pl morgan, thank you very much mr. hockey, thank you also dow is up 120 points, s&p essentially flat and nasdaq is just below and slightly in the red. amazon is testing out a new delivery method. details of that next plus earnings results from ford, las vegas sands and texas instruments after the bell "closing bell" back after this the future of technology investing lies beyond the tech sector. it's about technology transforming every sector. ♪ at pgim, our bottom-up approach uses a technology lens to identify long-term winners. from energy... to real estate... to retail.

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welcome back 17 minutes left to trade morgan stanley upgraded walmart to overweight today. good read. they did a full sort of summary of what they think might not work in the year ahead, the headline being that the stock performance of the retail sector suggests the economy is weakening. it is. you look at wage growth,

consumer balance sheets there's actually more opportunity out there, but in a defensive tone and that's why walmart fits that picture and they say they can continue to strip out costs in the u.s. and the u.s. part of the business will continue to grow, upgrading their price target to 1.10. >> the line that jumped out at me, we believe walmart u.s. will be one of the few retailers to grow earnings in 2019. >> on the u.s. part of the business. >> that's not very positive. lowe's and home depot as well. >> i'm looking at shares of u.p.s. and fedex, taking a hit today on a report that they're making a pitch to woo shippers on fewer and in some cases lower fees that offers to pick up parcels and deliver to residences but without added fuel or weekend surcharges every time you get a report, wilf, about amazon's

transportation and logistics business, how it's growing it out, whether it's potentially looking to take on u.p.s. and fedex as a competitor, you see shares of both of these companies trade lower. that's what's happening right now. both are down about 1.5% right now. we got this piece of news, too, amazon is testing new delivery system called amazon scout starting today, designed to roll on sidewalks and deliver packages you can see it there in that video. i don't know i feel like it's just wide open to vandalism and thefts. sharing sidewalk space with it. >> i completely hear you on that i still think this seems more likely to me than drones. >> probably. >> and interesting kind of test. i agree. >> they make it look easy. it's cool. >> fedex, u.p.s. down 1.5%. >> transports are definitely the

underperformer today, looking at the broader markets. >> news alert on ken griffin he's spending more money spl quite a bit more money, wilf ken griffin has just purchased the most expensive home ever sold in america. he's paying $238 million for a four-story penthouse in a new condo tower in new york, 220 central park south this will be 24,000 square feet. again $238 million that's just for the raw space. so the building has just finished $238 million for the raw space and will spend millions more to build out the apartment. also this week he purchased a $122 million mansion in london he has spent over $700 million in recent years to buy the most expensive homes in chicago, miami, palm beach, new york and now this london property now this property, we actually

broke the news when he purchased this three years ago, went into contract that's when the building was under construction now today he is closing that deal so people mighting confused because they thought they might have heard about this before he is closing this deal now officially the buyer of the most expensive home ever sold in the u.s. guys, back to you. >> i haven't done the exact calculation but the price per square foot in london earlier in the week a lot better than in new york, right? >> yes. >> it was 60,000 square foot or something ridiculous for $130 million you said >> i don't remember the square footage there but yeah that was 95 million pounds, i believe it was over 16,000 square feet. this is a bigger place at 24,000 i haven't done the math on a per square footage basis this property at 220 central park south is the tower to be in, what's now called billionaire's row. now there's four or five of these giant towers and this

designed by robert stern is the place to be. a lot of famous, rich people also in this building. but i don't think any of us expected a price of -- the previous record for a home in the u.s. was $137 million. so this way surpasses the previous record. >> i don't know about the tower to be in everyone labels their building like that, don't they? >> 24,000 square feet is an enormous amount of square footage in new york city, especially if it's the tower i think that's kind of the key point here. >> and it's on the -- sort of starting on the 50th floor, four floors up from there and apparently the views of the park are incredible, which you would expect for $238 million, you would think you would get all of central park but you get great views of the park anyway from that building. >> ridiculous prices robert, thank you very much. >> thank you, guys we have 12 minutes, 11

minutes left of trade if you want to buy one of those properties, get your trades right at the moment. the dow is up 0.7% decent little pop as we approach the close. we are pretty much actually at highs -- not highs we were up higher at the start of the session s&p is positive and the nasdaq now as well. >> up next, a leading technician llelus what he's seeing in the charts "closing bell" will be right back [leaf blower] you should be mad at leaf blowers. [beep] you should be mad your neighbor always wants to hang out. and you should be mad your smart fridge is unnecessarily complicated. but you're not mad, because you have e*trade which isn't complicated. their tools make trading quicker and simpler. so you can take on the markets with confidence. don't get mad. get e*trade and start trading today. don't get mad. ♪

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and if we are ever late, we'll give you a automatic twenty dollar credit. my name is antonio and i'm a technician at comcast. we're working to make things simple, easy and awesome. welcome back to the closing bell let's have a look at chart action joining me now, jeff degraf. little bit of a bullish s&p but there's a caveat to it. >> we look at the times, eclipsed 68% of s&p constituents making a 20-day high that happen last friday, extremely bullish if you go out 12, six months near-term it's a little bit more of a mksed message it tends to show there's

robustness in the marketplace. the sequencing is a little off you usually have an oversold condition, retest of that and then confirmation. we've had an oversold condition, momentum confirmation and no retest that's never happened. >> ever? >> ever, in the 60 years after a 20% decline. it's a little weird in the sequencing i like the momentum but my sense was it was buyer's capitulaion and will lead to more of a consolidation or correction and then we can go from there. >> the other chart we've got, jeff, is a tw-year treasury note. >> the market is concerned about the fed overstepping its boundaries and choking off an economic boom going into a recession. if you look at the two-year yield it's been historically a very good tell on that my concern will be if the two-year yield rolls over, the s&p stays firm, the bond market

is telling you that equities are likely to weaken conversely, if the market weakens but yields stay firm that's absolutely a great buying signal. >> and this is very much focused on the two year? >> we don't care so much about the shape. if it's inverted that's a problem. that's not the case here as long as the two-year yield is going up, if you invert, the two-year yield will keep going down it's not doing that, which is good news. it starts to roll over, that will be a problem for the s&p. >> morgan, back to you. >> thanks, wilf. dow up 146 points. up next in these final moments of trade, we'll come back with the closing countdown. stay with us

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so of trade. we're not at the highs of the day but not too badly. nasdaq is attempting to finish positive and the dow up the highest of all it's up about 159 points at the moment the high was 296 clearly the dow is the outperformer, being flatted by a number of individual companies who reported earlier today ibm, utx, p & g in particular. it's just lost a little bit of ground it's up 8.5%, cisco fourth best performing stock in the dow today. there they are, staples and utilities at the top of the list doesn't shout bull market rally but energy, materials and financials towards the bottom. but we've got technology up there at the top, only abo about .3%. the u.s. dollar as well, as i bring in bob pisani. the overall dollar was weak

today because sterling was so strong the real thing to focus on was the yen which softened against the dollar. >> yeah. and mario draghi, this may be the most important meeting. >> since 2012. not as important as that one. >> whatever it takes, maybe he he won't say that again, but it will be a big one. we'll be following that closely. outperformance of the dow much better than the s&p. ibm, united technology and procter & gamble is 140 of the 170 points pris-weighted index, higher priced particularly boeing -- excuse me, ibm. it moves the market. tomorrow and overnight, we'll see united rentals and after what we saw with stanley black & decker on the industrial front i want to hear if united rentals is having similar

problems and tech names, as well as some of the airlines as well. we're getting into the heart of earnings season. it gets stretched out as it's slower in the first quarter. >> las vegas sands, texas instruments right after the close. progre progressive new york boat show and nabriva at the nasdaq. morgan, back to you. >> thank you, wilf welcome to the "closing bell." i'm morgan brennan wilfred frost will join me in a moment mike santoli, cnbc markets commentator. here is how we're finishing the day on wall street as stocks settle we were up we were down then we finished up again, another volatile trading session here on wall street, the dow finishing up the day up 172

points, 24576. s&p up .2% 2638 is your level there, nasdaq finishing the day ever so slightly higher, 7,025 russell 2000 was the underperformer earnings was name of the game after united tech, ibm and procter & gamble reported beats that drove those gains in the dow today. we've got more earnings after the bell in a few moments. we've got three big names to watch. phil lebeau is covering ford, josh lipton on texas instruments and kate rogers is ready for las vegas sands. amazon taking aim at u.p.s. and fedex, promising merchants it will cut out traditional shipping fees.

and jp morgan ceo jamie dimon weighing in on the u.s. economy and why the range for outcomes of economic growth are increasing joining us to talk about the market action today, serat sephi. first, mike, i'll start with you. >> yes huge sprint into the recent highs but very benign the way the day turned out it got bought right way. i wouldn't draw any too much strong conclusions except it's a controlled little minor pullback we have right now. average stock was basically below flat more stocks down than up again, very much in a measured way as opposed to what looked like in the middle of the morning it was going to be maybe another one of these scares to the downside it didn't go anywhere. >> the things that were up today, few individual stories. otherwise, quite defensive >> relatively defensive, yes

the stuff that has bounced the hardest off the lows, very high beta stocks, most aggressive they have pulled back the last couple of days you look at the semi conductor and things like that, etf. that's to be expected. essentially whatever has been running flat out going into this week has backed away i don't think we've settled anything in terms of do we have to have a deeper pullback, do we not? right now this was a relatively, as i said, benign kind of comfortable breather of the day. >> one of the debates we had on this show in the last hour was whether this was actually a bear market and what we've seen recently has been a rally within that what do you think? >> i think we might retest the lows but we're setting up a base here you look at last week, expectations were so low and stocks did bounce off the bottom which tells me that people are expecting things to get better in the future. the other side of it.

>> mike, if we include last week as well, they've been a positive for the markets. >> reactions have been positive, yes. i would say that's true. look, you can quibble and say the market was in a mode where it was going to jump to positive conclusions about things because we were in this strong rally that's right it's fair to say right now if you look at the responses directly related to numbers reported they've been on balance positive i think also on a day-to-day basis if you try to say here is the theme for earnings, you get chopped up one day like yesterday seems as if we're in a growth scare and the big companies that reported were good enough and the stocks rallied. >> texas instruments hitting the tape right now and josh lipton has those results. josh >> texas instruments reporting eps of $1.26 on revenue at 3.72 billion. the street was looking for $1.24 on 3.75 billion. q1 forecast, calling for $1.23,

$1.21. those would be a bit lighter than expected, it looks like business segments real quickly here, analog revenue 2.62 billion, and processing 161. this conference call kicks off at 4:30 eastern. back to you. >> josh lipton, thank you. mike, what do you think? >> on this off side on a net basis probably not too unexpectedly so. i don't know it's been a prshed group not sure it will change the story too much. >> semis have been slammed and these numbers were being watched very closely. >> ti goes into a broad prospect of what consumers use. they'll see what the demand is not just for high-end, sm i conductors but these are really what i would call staple semi

conductors and can really foretell what the next couple of quarters will be. >> led lower by u.p.s. and fedex after those stocks fell on a report that amazon is trying to cut prices as it rolls out its own delivery network mike, every time we see some sort of headline around amazon's transportation network, immediate knee-jerk reaction is sell shares about fedex and u.p.s. "the wall street journal" got its hands on e-mails making the pitch. and that seems a bit more worriso worrisome. >> you're right, there's been this reflex sensitive iity thes very spsk pricing tactics that these shipers make going direct to customers maybe it seems like it will create that much more pricing pressure

hasn't there also been this get it to me now economy, the burden of that is being born on some level by u.p.s. and fedex. they are that point in the whole system where a lot of the cost is building up. >> what was your view on this, sarat, as to whether it's important for their investment case overall. >> i think it is important pressure on margins. as they get bigger shall people will be focused more on earnings growth deliverables, if they can go after this, it will put a lot of pressure on their suppliers. amazon will go after u.p.s. and fedex and say if we can do it lower, we're not going to use you. that will start a margin pressure for u.p.s. and fedex. it will be pretty tough for the

them. >> chinese vice president addressing the economic forum in davos today. >> translator: china's development. there are all sort of views. someone is saying that china is approaching the end of its growth or we have already reached the end of the growth. approximate but if ask us we believe we have not approached the end. we are actually pursuing more sustainable growth >> to what extent do you think a china slowdown would spook the market >> i think if it's just this gradual slowdown, i don't think it comes as a surprise i do think china, any kind of hard landing, any sign that their stimulus efforts are falling flat that, to me, is a bigger risk to the market. that's why they're wored about the trade issue, not the export

sect sector does it take it into a real tail spin not surprised to hear comments there. >> right. >> it's a risk but it's one we've been living with for, you know, a long time at this point. i think it would have to accelerate to the downside to really come as news. >> i would argue for fedex and u.p.s., potentially, at least near term, the bigger risk for those businesses is slowing global growth in places like china. do you think companies like apple are using that macroscenario as an excuse >> black & decker, you saw it yesterday. they're seeing this, a, with the tires and trade slowing down a little bit i think that's going to be hard

to go forward. >> particularly if you look at the trade data most recently, the effect of the u.s. china trade war is similar to what it's been on the u.s if you looked at their trade data, much more softness going to europe and japan than the u.s. there's always a risk to the down side if things elevate with the trade war, there's a bigger effect it's something to watch if it escalates rather than that it's going to get so much better if it improves. >> there's an unbalanced economy even outside the trade talks and that's what they're contending. >> jp morgan chief jamie dimon on ""squawk box"" earlier today. >> it's like a ship, shutdown, 2.5% that will keep going for a

while. you have all this other noise, what's the fed going to do shutdown trade. eventually that may very well cause a slowdown, a recession. the range of possibilities is broader and the range of bad outcomes is increasing. >> mike? what do you think? this possibility rising risk of recession, 2020 or 2021 doesn't sound quite so scary. >> it's not that alarming. at some point you're sort of stating the probabilities as they are in the world, right so i don't think there's anything to quibble about. if sub 2% is where the economy wants to expand, all else being equal, then we might have to adjust a little more feels like you're closer to

stall speed when you have outside influences that are restraining stuff. >> when you hear that kind of sentiment from jamie dimon, do you think the banks, the ones he oversees, are fine in this market >> we're buying the banks. i think he's trying to say if some of these things become much bigger than they are, that's going to cause a real problem but by themselves today they'll let us be in a steady state. and unless something really gets bad, like the trade war gets really bad or government shutdown goes on for months i think we can absorb these things if they become too big you'll get very defensive very quickly. >> sarat, thank you. president trump speaking moments ago about the state of the union. eamon javers has the details for us. >> that's right. nancy pelosi sent a letter to the white house earlier, suggesting there wasn't going to be a state of the union address

until the government is reopened in effect, dus inviting the president of the united states from giving that state of the union. here is how the president responded to that, his first reaction in the cabinet room moments ago. >> we're supposed to be doing it and now nancy pelosi or nancy, as i call her, she doesn't want to hear the truth and she doesn't want to hear, more importantly, the american hear the trug we just found out she's canceled it i think that's a great blotch on the incredible country that we all love. >> wilfred, the president said he hoped to find an alternative venue for the state of the union. not exactly sure how the white house will handle his. will they deliver it in some other location, some other format a lot to be decided at the white house. back to you. >> eam n, crazy question is it still state of the union if it doesn't take place in the cameber of the house >> that's a good question. it is if the president says it

is, is my understanding. if he says this is the constitutionally mandated state of the union message to congress, even though i'm delivering it in albuquerque, i think that's still the state of the union but it won't look or feel like anything of the states of the union in the past i can't remember anything like this ever happening before it shows you just how off the norms we are here in washington, d.c. >> albuquerque a front-runner? is that from a source? >> no, no, that's just me throwing it out there. wherever he goes he could go to the border, friendly red state or suburban virginia outside of the belt way here. >> eamon javers for us next. ford's latest numbers. will the automaker be able to turn around its struggling stock? there it is. we're become anyway couple of minutes. it's absolute confidence

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welcome back earnings alert, and kate rod gls ers. >> 77 cents adjustments, looking for 84 cents $3.48 billion. analysts were looking for 3.525

billion. to take you through the gaming revenues, good news from macau, that was a beat, 2.18 billion. marina base sands, las vegas right in line. bethlehem a bit-like light back to macau. they don't seem to be too concerned about any softness their ceo says the company is positive about the future and they're moving forward with their investments. as you can see, the stock is down by more than 4% back over to you. >> kate rodgers, thank you. >> slight irony there. the stock has been under huge pressure isn't far off its lows. i also don't know if people are willing to extrapolate a good quarter from macau into what might come.

>> there's a big beat that usually would lead to decent eps for them it's a miss. i don't know if there's some individual big-ticket losses or whatever, but macau is the engine. >> more than the others. >> and it's quite good down about 4%, 5%. >> more earnings out right now as well. ford phil lebeau has those numbers. phil >> roughly in line with the estimates that were out there. you'll see some people say their estimate was 32 cents a share. remember, they announced earnings of $1.30 a share. you came to $'30 cents a share for the fourth quarter automotive revenue fourth quarter north american profit margin of 7.6%.

company margin 3.5%. north america is the only major region where ford made money when you add up the losses in europe, in china, in south america, ford lost roughly $780 million. this is all about the conference call at 5:30 with ceo in terms of the guidance for 2019 last week the company said it would not give a range in terms of estimate, just that it has the potential to meet or exceed all of its key metrics revenue, margin, return on invested capital they're still cautious about the environment out there in terms of their own performance because they're in the midst of restructuring, guys. that means there could be hits to operational performance there. the conference call at 5:30 with jim hackett. that's what people are focused on

what does that say in terms of where ford is? does he give us any clarity, any benchmarks in the first quarter or all of 2019 guys back to you. >> the expectation at the moment is still that they are committed to it and to making it profitable it would be a surprise if they were pulling back more than expected. >> correct they are committed to europe remember, they've said they'll have an alliance with volkswagen in some capacity they're looking for how they can limit their cost is that through some kind of a partnership with volkswagen they've already announced? what else can they do? they're not going to pull out of europe they've already said that. same time, they are going to be restructuring, likely extensive

layoffs with their european production over there. >> stick with us garret nelson is join iing us, senior analyst cfra. we've seen the numbers and full year with it what's your take >> i think phil is right it all comes down to the 2019 guidance and outlook predominantly all of frd's profits come from north america. >> we're a little concerned about the global growth outlook, particularly china, which has posted pretty disturbing auto sales numbers over the past several months it appears that things will get worse over in china before they get better that said, ford has a couple of

positives going for it the 60 cent analyzed dividend yield. they said last week that they expect a quarterly dividend of 15 cents for the first quarter that's about a 7% yield at these levels, attractive yield they're sitting on total liquidity that has been fairly stable the last few years. >> would the company cut that or freeze it as it goes through restructuring is this. >> we don't see that right now it's possible depending how 2019 develops the balance sheet is in pretty good shape to weather a downturn. >> mike, what's your take on this and key factors to look out for? >> it's a pure wait and see. the stock has already taken its punishment, right?

it is about getting clarity on profit sustainable worldwide overall north american sales picture will say a lot more about that which i'm not sure that ford will comment on. >> phil, in terms of the weakness from europe, china, these other markets and how it's affecting ford, how much of this is a ford specific story versus a broader issue for auto manufacturers overall? >> in china, it's ford specific. they completely zigged when the market zagged and paying the price for it right now look, it's a brutally competitive market wilf, you're familiar with this. market share, if you gain .2%, you're doing well in europe. that market is in really bad shape right now. south america has never been consistent for ford or any auto maccer you're dealing with a very up

and down market. you can quickly reverse one way or the other it's a combination of their own self inflicted problems and global issues. >> phil lebeau, we look forward to hearing tomorrow morning what's come from that conference call. up next, we'll break down whether the spike in consumer stocks so far this year is a bullish sign for the market. hulu slashing the price of its basic streaming service days after netflix raised prices. and last year, i earned $36,000 in cash back. which i used to offer health insurance to my employees. what's in your wallet?

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welcome back to the closing bell is the market getting more optimistic about growth and consumer spending? mike santoli is at the telestrat telestrator. >> yes i would say it's getting more pessimistic than it was a month ago. this is the xly divided by the xlp. consumer discretionary is a more cyclical year, consumer staples more defensive and safe. last june, major poo peak, economic growth, tax cut, low unemployment chopped around another secondary peak, where the overall economic peak late september, early october. decline fast into there.

basically right here, it was break even for the year. late last year obviously, people were very concerned about the near-term recession risk and the rest of it we bounced hard off those bees lows, hit this peak a couple of weeks ago. is it just settling down, going sideways or going up again probably good for overall market and economic sentiment if it rolls over for good it will be one warning sign that the rally has run out of steam. >> to what extent would the line be very similar if we played out tech versus utilities or industrials versus utilities is this really a true insight on what the u.s. -- peoplethink about the u.s. consumer or just risk on versus risk off sentiment? >> it would be very similar. it is a bit of a risk on, risk off sentiment but much more targeted with regard to recession fears. tech is not geared as much toward what the domestic economy will show in gdp in six months as much as consumer discretionary. it's kind of an aggressive versus defensive toggle we're

watching right here. >> this is actually similar. you reported on this a lot late last year we saw those consumer staples names get expensive versus historic valuations how does that factor in here does it. >> as a whole, food stocks are not really expensive p & g is it plays into it they're not considered to be particularly attractive stocks in the abstract if you were going to have to hold them for ten years. when the market gets choppy, you like them. by the way, today i would point out this ratio did decline but procter & gamble and walmart are both consumer staple stocks, both very strong today so they pull this had lower. >> mike, as always, great stuff. thank you very much. time for cnbc news update. sue herera has it for us. >> indeed, i do. michael cohen has postponed his testimony before the house oversight committee, scheduled for february 7th his legal adviser, lanny davis, releasing a statement, citing

ongoing threats to cohen's family from president trump, who soon responded. >> i would say he has been threatened by the truth. he has only been threatened by the truth. and he doesn't want to do that probably for me or other of his clients. he has other clients also, i assume and he doesn't want to tell the truth for me or other of his client clients. >> senator joni ernst of iowa denying allegations from her husband that she had an affair with a subordinate while serving in the military. she accused him of having an affair and assaulting her during an argument. the husband denied the affair but the abuse allegations were not addressed. sports and entertainment pledging $50 million at a launch rapper meek mill was joined by rapper jay-z, 76%, brooklyn mets

and new england patriots wilf, morgan, i'll send it back down to you. >> sue, thank you very much. sue herera at hq for us. now a streaming showdown you next, we'll discuss whether hulu's price cut could be a wake-up call for netflix's largest erev increase. we'll hear from ceo of food giant car glsgill by 2030, half of america may take after stonington, self-employed and without employer benefits. we haven't had any sort of benefit plans and we're trying to figure that out now. if i had had a little advice back then, i'd be in a different boat today, for sure. plan your financial life with prudential. bring your challenges.

welcome back here is a look at earnings so far. missing on eps and texas instruments beating on eps, missing, though, on revenues, as you can see las vegas sands, biggest mover, is down 4% after hours let's get to a couple more earnings reports from two semi conductor names. kate rodgers has that for us. >> revenues $800 million versus estimates of $771 million. the stock, as you can see, is higher by around 8% and lam with a beat on eps, $3.87 a share,

adjusted versus estimates of 366. revenues 2.52 billion versus estimates of 2.49 billion. they also announce a $5 billion share buyback. that stock is up by 6% back over to you. >> kate rodgers, thank you mike, takeaways thus far >> a bit of a net relief on the whole, especially with the buyback news hard-hit group good enough to get a little mild bounce. >> texas improving as well. >> improving, although it didn't gain back what it lost in the regular session, more than 1%. >> moving on, hulu announcing pricing changes to its streaming plans. streaming with ads by $2 to $5.99 a month. ad-free streaming plan that will stay at $11.99 live tv option will increase to $44.99 from $39.99.

>> changes come a week after competitor netflix raised its prices and just today v. acom announced it will acquire plut och pluto tv for $340 million. >> dozens of streaming services but dozens will be unprofitable. amazon was very much at the forefront of live 21 century fox and disney decided that grade scale matters. >> joining us now to discuss is dan rayburn from frost and sullivan thanks for joining us. >> thank you. >> to what extent do you think if we look at the pure streaming offering from hulu and ignore the live tv offering, to what extent do you think this is a pure reaction to netflix's increase last week and very much trying to take them on directly? >> i don't think it's reaction

at all i think you have to look at the services for what they are hulu told me when they tested their plan last year they saw more people sign up and saw more user engagement. user engagement is how these services are measured. hulu's service and netflix's service are two different services in terms of what they offer, the type of content that they have. from an svad service alone, hulu has 85,000 titles or episodes as they call it a lot of people want to compare the two different services but they really look in terms of who they're targeting. >> dan, you mentioned svad i know there's this svad versus avad with the advertising supported video on demand versus subscription model so far in the marketplace for the most part, we've seen a subscription model between hulu, viacom news today and their acquisition, the news last week that cnbc's parent

company, comcast, is getting into this business with an ad supported service, it seems there are two very different business models and two very different camps that all these companies are getting into how can we think about that? >> agreed. that's a lot of different business models. think of the three we see right now. amazon no announced the free streaming. pluto tv like you mentioned with viacom ad only model. the problem is they can't really become profitable over time because the content costs are just too high. then you have the subscription side where you have netflix and hulu and others and then you have the pay to own, pay to rent or pay to download, which obviously amazon and others offer through a store, apple offers to your point, warner media is coming out of the service soon disney plus, nbc, apple. fragmentation is really starting to get high. prices are starting to go up because these companies are creating really, really good content and the bottom line is

consumers are going to have a lot of choice in the market but also a lot of confusion and higher prices. >> is it a threat to netflix, given the valuation they're on >> is hulu a threat or overall >> overall but i guess hulu is the latest example of it growing competition for them. >> i look at hulu as a different service because it includes svad so hulu and netflix are two different services targeting two different customers for the most part disney plus and these others are competition. hulu likes to say it's not for them and it's not for netflix, it truly isn't for hulu because disney owns 6% but when disney starts pulling their content off netflix, it's less content for netflix which is good quality because we know what the disney brand is about. >> so how much -- in terms of

monthly spend per customer do you think there is to work with, given what somebody would be paying for traditional bundle for all these services i think people have abandoned the idea that's going to cost appreciably less to have a couple of these services plus your broad band service. >> that's the point to talk about here where is the tipping point when all these services came to the markets, think of sling tv, directv, so many of them their real selling point was it was much cheaper than pay tv and didn't have contracts. now as these rates go up and you look at your triple play bundle -- for instance i'm at $118 with verizon for triple play cable tv is $57 of that. i have to get hulu, netflix, mlb tv, cbs all access, nbc, and disney it's going to start costing more money than it would be in a triple play bundle. >> yeah. dan rayburn, thanks for joining us today to break all of this down $400 million

that's how much the labor department says tech giant oracle underpaid women and minorities and there are more surprinisg claims from that labor official report as well we'll have those next.

welcome back oracle accused of underpaying its female and minority employees by more than $400 million over four years. josh lipton has more on claims made against the tech giant. josh >> wilf, one of the biggest software companies in the world now has a big target on its

back the u.s. department of labor accusing oracle of discriminating against women and minority employees and costing them more than $400 million in lost wages the neufeld filing comes two years after the department first filed suit against the tech giant for hiring discrimination. now submitting that complaint, bringing new evidence that says clarifies the scope of oracle's bias methods of discrimination include steering these employees into lower-paid jobs suppression of pay for its nonwhite, nonmale employees is so extreme it persists and gets worse over long careers, the government saying. the complaint says these discriminatory practices impacted more than 5,000 women and more than 11,000 asians, saying oracle discriminated in its college hiring, too, for certain technical position, only six were african-american. oracle, though, firing right

back, calling this lawsuit meritless. we fiercely disagree with the spurious claims and will continue in the process to prove them false we are in compliance with our regulatory obligations, committed to equality and proud of our employees concerns about bias in silicon valley expand well beyond this company. thousands of google employees walked out of work, pay disparity was a concern that they did highlight back to you. >> josh, thank you very much for that mike, i guess at the moment given that very fierce pushback from the company is why we haven't seen the share price really react. >> certainly one reason. i don't think there's any way to quantify impact or anything like that in terms of corporate leadership, changes or fines or anything like that it seems before something like this is brought, a pretty decent investigation and case seems to have been built. it's not just a wild accusation. >> i wonder if the time is

coming where we'll see the same type of reporting elements adopted here that we've seen in britain in terms of pay and salaries being published and explanations for those gaps. >> which has happened and that got a lot of focus when it began a year or two ago, particularly in the financial sector but hasn't led to huge action or repercussions for the companies. it's encouraging to see the companies respond but it didn't see them really have to pay out significant sums we shall see sara eise is talking to business leaders at the world economic forum. sara, what have you got next for us coming up on "the closing bell" from davos, ceo of cargill. agriculture giant onhath wt e impact is of the trade war and how they see global growth with a cockpit fit for aspaceship. hang on. radar that senses things the human eye can't. busted.

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>> welcome back to the "closing bell." sara eisen cargill's ceo to discuss the impact of the u.s./china trade war on the agricultural economy. here's what he had to say. >> obviously it's a time of great uncertainty, led by what's going on with the u.s. and china which does directly impact our business and our farm customers in the u.s ultimately i feel confident about growth i think the economies in our key geographies are good so i feel pretty good about things generally speaking. >> do you feel pretty good about the prospects of solving this trade fight? >> that's a good question. i am choosing to be optimistic in a binary world of i can be really optimistic or pessimistic, i'm going optimistic. >> why >> because i don't want to be pessimist pessimistic. i have faith the two sides will

figure it out and they recognize the benefit of a great trading relationship. >> how much pain is there on the farm as a result of this trade fight? >> look at the numbers so the u.s. sends about 30 million metric tons of soybeans to china every year. it went to zero. now, some of it is picked up since we had this 90-day moratorium you could argue that prices are about $2 lower than where they might be, but more importantly for the u.s. farmer, you're seeing supplies build up in the silos and storage on the farms it's got to go somewhere eventually. >> is it the type of thing if they do figure out a deal the business comes back or are there longer term competitive implications where companies can just go to brazil? >> that's a great question because china is supplying from brazil and south america it's an opportunity for brazil to fill the gap. the sooner it gets solved, the less there's a long-term implication. the longer it goes on, then you have second and third order consequences to your point.

>> are you seeing job losses in the industry >> no, i don't think so. there's still capacity, but i think it's just hard on the american farmer. i think it's hard on the ag economy in general, but i wouldn't say that it's directly leading to job losses at this point. >> what about the administration's assistance or bailout that it provided for the farmers, did that help >> well, it does help them in the short term i think administratively with the shutdown going on, i think there's issues withgetting the funds to where they're expected. but i think an american farmer would tell you give us open markets, give us free trade, don't give us subsidies. but it's a short-term solve, if you will. >> so longer term outlook, it sounds like it's really hard to have visibility right now on what to expect for 2019 and 2020. >> yeah. >> with this current situation for the agricultural economy. >> it is and obviously if things get solved, then it's maybe back to normal but i think in the agricultural economy, remember, it's an outdoor sport so in any given year you could have a big supply disruption because of too much

rain, not enough rain, great heat that's why i think american farmers are resilient and i think they will continue to be resilient. >> flexible. >> exactly. >> what's the outlook for pricing this year? >> for the ag economy, again, we have depressed prices, it's low. soybeans are a little over $9 a bushel but you had a drought in argentina, so you had a supply disruption there but then the issue with tariffs and stopping the supply of soybeans to china, it has kept prices on the low side it will depend on planting and the summer weather. >> food in general, do you think it's going to filter through to the consumer and we're not going to have to worry about inflation? >> i think it's good news for the consumer to have low agricultural prices. it can change quickly. there's a lot of stocks. there's a lot in storage, as i mentioned, of soybeans and corn and so historically high levels but it's a cyclical business because of weather patterns. ultimately it's pretty good for the consumer >> well, that was sara sitting down with the ceo of cargill

covered a lot of material there. >> a lot of material and i guess overall, mike, we could have expected a more bearish outlook. the bottom line was resilience is what he expects to see. >> what's interesting is if there's one sector that's used to wild swings in the price of their products without their control or really without warning, it is agriculture so at that level, okay, fine, we're used to this plus the world is not eating less, it is a world market ultimately you would think that this log jam gets prone but it doesn't help to have it go on with these disruptions. >> i thought it was interesting he said so far they have not seen job losses tied to depressed prices and the u.s./china trade back and forth. i think that's key because there's a lot made of the politics of this and how it's affected farmers who have been seen as a group generally to be largely supporters of trump and the trump administration.

>> yeah. >> so no job losses. you hear from farmers that are supportive of him they're going to continue to be supportive it's a lot easier to do that when you still have a job. >> we'll have to see how that plays out in 2020. after the break, we'll take a look at the stocks making the biggest moves in the after hours session. stay with us a is it to carry cargo... or to carry on a legacy? its show of strength... or its sign of intelligence? in crossing harsh terrain... or breaking new ground? this is the mercedes-benz suv family. greatness comes in many forms. lease the glc 300 for $479 a month at your local mercedes-benz dealer. mercedes-benz. the best or nothing.

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welcome back let's get a check on the headlines making news after hours. ford reporting a mixed quarter, beating on revenues but missing on earnings per share. it is flat in the after market. las vegas sands missing on the top and bottom lines the company did post better-than-expected macau results. but those shares are down about 3%. texas instruments beating on eps but missing on revenue the company issuing light guidance for the first quarter saying demand for its products continues to slow. nonetheless, that stock making a comeback, now up 1.5%. tomorrow another big lineup of guests from davos, including interviews with morgan stanley's ceo, bono and david sullivan. >> what will you do with yourself >> well, i'd love to be there.

but i would still definitely be watching maybe have bono as the officiator, that would be perfect. >> that would be a rock star panel. >> let him interview two bankers. >> and sara eisen, speaking of we'll have an interview with david taylor at 10:00 a.m. eastern on "squawk on the street." >> mike, the other focus tomorrow will also be the ecb. >> yes. >> an insight into what they're enthusiast thinking about global growth has been a key factor to watch. >> and central bank posture relative to it i feel like the u.s. government shutdown has gone on now plenty long enough. if it was going to serve a purpose for wall street, which is to keep the fed even more patient, and from here on out, it starts to be about just exactly how much growth it's going to erode and all that. so the ecb is a piece of that picture just in terms of whether this attempted move toward less loose money is going to continue. >> definitely focused or i will

be on gorman and sullivan, to have a look at a first proper grilling of them after those earnings, which were decent last week, and some individual things particularly on goldman sachs too. morgan, as always, thanks for joining us. >> thanks. >> that does it for "closing bell." "fast money" starts now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. tonight on "fast" a number of big earnings reporting moments ago. ford, las vegas sands, texas instruments all on the move. we are monitoring those conference calls and will bring you the latest details. plus, stocks in a tug of war but a top strategist says don't worry, there is one chart that points to a rally this year. but we start off with a rally that almost was. the earnings euphoria fading today. there was an early morning rally, the dow jumping 300 points before shedding those gains.