be on gorman and sullivan, to have a look at a first proper grilling of them after those earnings, which were decent last week, and some individual things particularly on goldman sachs too. morgan, as always, thanks for joining us. >> thanks. >> that does it for "closing bell." "fast money" starts now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. tonight on "fast" a number of big earnings reporting moments ago. ford, las vegas sands, texas instruments all on the move. we are monitoring those conference calls and will bring you the latest details. plus, stocks in a tug of war but a top strategist says don't worry, there is one chart that points to a rally this year. but we start off with a rally that almost was. the earnings euphoria fading today. there was an early morning rally, the dow jumping 300 points before shedding those gains. so there is one key leading

indicator we want to pay attention to, netflix. the stock falling again today, now down nearly 10% since its earnings report last week. this is a trend that we saw back in october netflix fell 17% in the month after its earnings report and the market followed suit in the months afterwards. are we seeing the same move again? is netflix the canary in the coal mine, guy >> i think it might be sto steve has pointed this out since the fall as you go back, the stock initially went higher, reversed, went lower and then the s&p followed i think that's what's going to happen now the dow was up 170, 200 points, iet i get it if not a retest to the downside it's going to get pretty close i think netflix gets us there. i think netflix trades 300 before it trades 350. >> this is definitely something i've been watching since the fall but you've got to remember, netflix was up from that low 50%. that was a hell of an overbought

situation that you had with netflix. it deserves to come off. i do think it will be indicative of a sell-off overall. >> how much was it up from january 1st to the highs before earnings, though it also was on a torrid run. >> yes. >> some would argue it's the same sort of pattern, although this time it's on a compressed time frame. >> i think it looks a heck of a lot like the market. this market, january has been absolutely exploding to the upside, especially in the last week and a half let's call it. suddenly you look at netflix, what a run i know it because i actually own some netflix i was looking for a pullback, mel, because i've been trying to do this buy right strategy where i can buy it back and roll it up i executed that again yesterday. i'm okay with it i was hoping it would get back to these levels. i don't know whether the s&p has to test lows or if netflix has to go back down and test lows. i think when we look at the numbers getting through earnings season, particularly today, we

had ibm, united technology, procter & gamble that put the dow up in a great spot facebook and some of the nasdaq stocks started to sink as the day started to go off. >> we're having this discussion because ultimately netflix is one of those names that is a high multiple stock that's all about growth if you look at today's earnings, the reason ibm and utx, these stocks are outperforming is there's specific things around these companies that are reasons why people are rallying utx. we don't need to get into that but that's all about utx dynamics, all about ibm dynamics the reason the financials rallied as much as they did is because they were mispriced to the downside in my view. this is my view, netflix is mispriced to the upside. we're in a market that is challenging growth so it's right we're looking at it. netflix had numbers that in any other quarter other than the last quarter, when also we were in a challenging environment, were more than enough to send that stock higher. >> i think it's an odd time

because the market is so volatile that we're trading a lot more off of technicals when you look at netflix the stock, it overshot just a bit. that number should have been 350. that was the high end of the sell zone for networks specifically overshot by $8 the market did the same thing on a percentage basis so i think they're both coming in. >> is this a warning sign for the rest of technology you mentioned it was a good earnings report. any other quarter the stock would have been fine we see this time and time again with a lot of the other names off the december 24th lows big rally going into earnings. does this mean that it's got to just knock the cover off the ball in terms of the report? >> i think they absolutely have to and we'll talk about some of the earnings today even. not necessarily technology but in the chip space. it's pretty interesting, mel, because when you look at some of these numbers and some of these names, which names have overshot to the upside? i think that's what the game is all about in terms of trying to figure out where the markets are

going. apple, has that overshot to the upside i don't think so off of its lows there are some names,netflix would be one of those, that exploded up to upside. the way it moved so fast, steve, we were under 300, what were we, 260, went all the way up to 350? that's a pretty extraordinary move in a very short period of time. >> look at the names that are responsible for the market just ticking up netflix has been one of those horsemen so it's going to be everyone -- the word i use is always torque. it's always torque, it's high er bat beta i always use it. i will tell you if the market comes in it's based on these four to six to seven names that do the heavy lifting, so it all stands to reason that you see netflix shoot up and come in higher and worse than the overall market. >> but aren't we also -- couldn't we have the conversation about stocks that are underperforming in this environment as well and those are thewounded animals

in other words, apple is an argument there fedex is an argument there these are companies that did not participate in this upside move. and what is more emblematic of the environment we're in it's fallen angel companies. i don't mean it in the credit context, but those that were the most popular and most loved companies that no longer are trading like they did. >> so you mean a netflix or an apple. >> i think for now netflix is a high multiple stock that's going to be under more pressure in an environment like this. i think an environment where people are challenging growth and you've seen companies have had their basic thesis challenged, those are the companies that to me are more representative of where we are right now. >> it's interesting, utech -- the fourth quarter was ridiculous the full year guidance, you look at their full-year guidance for '19 and it wasn't great. pretty much in line with previous guidance. so they could have guided higher, they didn't. stock was up 5.5%.

why? because it's been sold off so much yes, it's bounced off the december 24th low. you can make a case on valuation. but i don't think this was a 5.5% to the upside quarter stanley works was down 15% yesterday. things are getting out of control. i think ibm is specific to ibm i think people are buying into the fact that maybe red hat can be their saving grace, i'm not sure. >> and rockwell collins. i think people are rewarding because of what they see going forward and getting better visibility potentially, going forward because of the acquisitions, very bold acquisitions, especially red hat. that's the biggest with ibm, $34 billion. >> as pete talks about, this whole collins deal, you've going to create three industry-leading businesses the timing of that spinout has been moved up, it's 18 months instead of two years that's very positive for a stock with free cash flow. good news there. we got a news alert out of

washington, d.c. let's get to aeamon javers at th white house. >> the acting chief of staff, mick mulvaney, has sent letters to federal agencies asking them for information about high-impact programs of the federal government that could be disrupted if the federal government shutdown continues into march or april. that's an indication that the white house is thinking long term in terms of this government shutdown we've seen this sent to the speaker of the house nancy pelosi about the state of the union next week. everyone in washington thinks the shutdown will go that long now it looks like they're doing advanced planning in thamerms o what might happen if it goes into later this spring i've got a statement from a senior emb, office of management and budget official. the official is saying prudent management means planning and preparing for events without known end dates. as omb continues to manage this partial lapse in appropriations, unfunded agencies are being

asked to continue to share with omb an ongoing list of programs that could be impacted within the coming weeks so the white house, the office of management and budget here confirming that "washington post" report that mick mulvaney has asked agencies to send him a list of all the programs that could be disrupted if this shutdown continues that includes things like the federal court system, the payments of benefits under the department of agriculture to people who are on federal assistance and all the rest of the programs in the vast federal government bureaucracy that might be impacted here, melissa. >> so programs as opposed to agency functions like the s.e.c., for instance >> reporter: sure. and all of that, i think, is what the white house will be concerned about. what does this mean -- for example, there's some discussion about the ipo market and the s.e.c. the white house wants to know, it would seem, what all of the unintended consequences of this government shutdown could be, how all of that could play out, and it's asking the federal agencies for their guidance on the most high impact programs that could come into play here

basically the white house is trying to figure out how bad it could get if this continues into march or april, which is a very long time from now. >> wow eamon, thank you eamon javers in washington, d.c. if it continues into march or april, this is concerning the government shutdown. we haven't even gotten to a legislative agenda yet. >> it's more concerning that we're thinking about what the ramifications are and how much longer we can go not how do we get this solved. it's an -- absurd we're investigating ramifications. >> for us when we get that panic set in, it's the longest shutdown in history and you get a panic. oh, my god, what's going to happen i think a lot of this is trying to soothe the public saying, okay, it's not the end of the world. we'll get by on this we'll try to figure it out i don't think it's necessarily a bad thing for them to do. >> especially their entitlement programs, people want answers. let's bring in the chief u.s.

equity analyst for credit suisse jonathan, thanks for being here. >> good to be here. >> how much of a risk to the markets is the shutdown at this point? >> long term it's not abig deal one of the things we're focused on is not what happens to specific programs, but did people get their tax refunds people spend that money. people that file early, they put that back into the economy you also have workers who are not going to go and get a paycheck so we're really looking at the consumption. i kind of disagree with the point that you're making that this is to soothe. if you listen to the point made by the white house, if this goes on for the whole quarter, you can have a zero gdp. first of all, that is an absurd thing. gdp is expected to be 3% this quarter. and to wipe out 3% gdp, it's almost the opposite. it's like people are trying to turn up the heat and fight this out, so it's -- i'm not sure. >> a bargaining chip almost. there are some concrete ways in which an investor is impacted by

this, and that is you have less data to go through i mean steve liesman did a report today on "power lunch" about the whole list of data that has not been released because of the government shutdown, and much of that data is an input into calculating gdp, so when the fed meets on january 29th, it will have less data on which to be data dependent. >> well, the fed's plan is nothing. there's no way with the stuff going on with china and trade, the stuff going on here with an economy that's weak in china, expected to decelerate, a weak europe the futures market is telling you they're out. >> i don't think that they're going -- i never thought that this -- i don't think anybody thought -- who cares what i think, that it was a live meeting. but it's a meeting at which the fed chair is going to answer questions. and when the fed chair answers questions, and answers them off the cuff, we've seen in the past that's when the market volatility is introduced again >> no question about it.

>> that's scary and there's less data to educate his opinion or to point to as he's answering the questions. >> sure. right now all we're focused on is corporate profits in three weeks from now when the corporate profits fade, the input is government data if it's not there, you're absolutely right. >> so what should we be expecting at this point of the rally? it seems like there's some stress points at this point. >> let me give you two positives an something that i'm very confused about the positive number one is the fed is basically done for the cycle. that's what the market believes and i think the market will be right. number two, volatility, as much as we have all this stuff going on, is going to continue to drift lower. that's why the markets rallied so much. as we have a vix move towards 15 and below that, you'll have a market that's going to continue to rally it gets tougher after the vix gets back towards 15 i think the trend is harder. >> this is the one chart that you've got to understand. >> that is the chart you can see when the vix is rising, the mark is selling off. that is the whole story of the

fourth quarter and why you had this pull back and when that volatility trains out of the market, it's game time. >> but the vix is responding to data that we're seeing, whether it was the china ism or the u.s. ism and china data points. if we find ourselves at 20, it's because something has changed, not because the vix has changed. >> yeah, but i think there's a lag effect on this hedge fund adjust their position sizes based on the level of market volatility but they don't do it on where the vix is today, they do it on a rolling one month or two-month basis if the vix has been drifting lower, that means that over the next month or two, hedge funds are going to reflate their position sizes and buying those nasdaq kind of names they sold out of i think if you have a slow drift down, it's like having a really strong tailwind. i don't think you need the vix to get down to 12 in order to have more upside. >> we're just about out of time.

what is the one thing that confuses you >> there's total inskicconsiste in the underlying earnings data. the earnings are moving toward zero for the first quarter 2.5% expected growth the revenues are knock-the-lights out good and the margins are horrifically bad based on wall street consensus expectations it doesn't make sense. one of those is right, one of those is wrong i think the way you play this in an options space, either this is a much bigger returning to the upside or this thing is going to get ugly i don't think you get something in the middle. more time needed for this. >> jonathan, thank you so much i go to pete then. >> the part that confuses me a little bit with what jonathan is laying out is we've got a lot of different things -- uncertainties. uncertainty provides volatility. uncertainty in the form of china, trade, the slowdown, our own situation here with the shutdown and everything, i think the combination of those, mel, is why we are still at a 20 vix.

otherwise right now if you removed even one of those different legs, i think we'd be closer to a 15 or a 16 but i think we continue to hold some of these levels until we get answers, i think those levels will stay in the market we could see it. today was a perfect example of everything we've gone through. we're up 300, down about 170 or 190, whatever it was, all the way back up to finish up 170 that is complete volatility, and people don't understand, they're just looking close to close, i'm looking at intraday, which is unbelievable. >> i'm with pete on this one i've been wrong, but i do think the vix should be higher i don't necessarily agree that the fed is out of the picture for '19. that's what the volatility index is saying. given a choice between revenue growth and earnings growth, i'll take revenue growth every day. >> the fed is definitely -- i agree with you, i don't think they're out of the picture even if they're out of the picture, qt is still happening it's still rolling off on a monthly basis.

that is the equivalent of tightening at every meeting. >> bottom line, though, back to stocks, 2019 s&p, eps outlook is in about 2% already based upon where we are that's the numbers i'm looking at from the street so you are getting this essentially recalibration of what companies should be trading at or at least where their earnings are going to be that is the biggest determinant in a world without the fed. coming up, check out shares of ford. the stock higher after earnings report we'll tell you what the company is saying. plus wall street turning on a different automaker, tesla, as rbc downgrades the stock there are now more analysts with sells than buys. and later, this could be walmart's year, at least according to morgan stanley, but one trader thinks a different retailer could wind up on top. we are live from times square in new york city. much more "fast money" right after this

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you'now until january 24th, would like to say, "thank you." enjoy a free week of movies on us- from networks like epix, lifetime movie club, hallmark movies now, and history vault. just say, "show me movie week." that's a full week of your favorite hit movies on your tv, online, or on the go with the xfinity stream app. [shouting] and it's all on us, all week long. you've got some serious watching to do. welcome back to "fast money. time for our call of the day walmart getting a boost from morgan stanley upgrading the world's largest retailer for the first time in four years to overweight the stock will be one of the only retailers with earnings growth this year it is up 6% so far so is walmart the champion of retail >> you know, i understand where

they're coming from on this call the problem i see is i think they waited far too long to get to where they are. the talk is back up to 98 from the low 80s. i think it's late. they did raise the price target from 107 to 110. they talked about e-commerce and the strength they have there and how things are getting better. i think there are other retailers that have proven it and i'm looking specifically at target. >> shocker. >> take a look, when you look at e-commerce and look at the growth, they actually put up a number for holiday sales of 5.7% higher when you look across, it makes sense to me that you've got a higher margin business with target than you do with walmart. when you look at pay and some of the input costs going into this thing, i think target has a better opportunity in front of them, especially at 69 versus 98. >> i think you hit it on the head that it outperformed early on walmart walmart is not only going to have to beat consensus but also trade at the highest ebitda multiple to earn 10% from here and that's what they're talking

about. or are they talking about outperforming the overall market i would agree with target if you had a would you rather >> how great is that >> it's good every once in a while i like to play a game. the game i play is did you make it to the dry cleaner on time, but clear low steve -- no, i'm kidding. that's a joke. that's a mean thing, i'm sorry look, how do you get -- how do you wrap your head around walmart. it closed at 22 times forward earnings as opposed to target closed at 13 i'd rather own target than walmart at this lofty multiple. >> i don't want to own any of them if i want to own any of them, i want to own target walmart is suffering from having to compete on price. the competition from the grocery space, which is a major percentage of their overall sales mix, that's what gets people coming back into the stores amazon is going to win but in between you have more floor space in the consumer staples, food retailing,

trillion dollar consumables market than you've ever had before and you think walmart will be more profitable? no way walmart has done a nice job investing in their business. >> if not walmart or target, then what? >> i tell you if we're going to be in broad lines or hard line, i'd rather be in a best buy. i realize maybe i've changed the tune but i just told you i think all of these companies, there's too much competition in that space and they're all fighting for too few of dollars. >> and best buy has been doing this for years against amazon. >> which would you like, best buy or target? >> which one do i own? i own target for what i see is all the right reasons. tim brought it up, when you look at wall muttmawalmart, 50% plus from grocery that's the margin there? zero so at target, you can understand why this mix is much more sense for target. >> head over to

tradingnation.cnbc.com i'm melissa lee, you're watching "fast money on cnbc. here's what else is coming up on "fast. >> sell, sell. >> that's what wall street is saying about shares of tesla and we'll explain why one analyst says the elon musk premium is overdone. plus, earnings season is in full swing, and pete najarian says there's one name on the deck that's getting ready for a major breakout ers l give us his fast pitch the'much more "fast money" right after this break your joints... or your digestion... so why wouldn't you take something for the most important part of you... your brain. with an ingredient originally discovered in jellyfish, prevagen has been shown in clinical trials to improve short-term memory. prevagen. healthier brain. better life.

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we've got an earnings alert on ford. shares of the automaker higher as the company conference call is about to get under way. let get to phil lebeau who is at

a ford dealership in texas hi, phil. >> reporter: it really is about the conference call. we knew the fourth quarter numbers would be they would be reporting roughly in line of what they reported today they preannounced last week. in terms of what to look for, remember, it's all about 2019. so far the company has not given a target for eps or guidance on revenue. it has said there is the potential to exceed on key metrics like revenue, profit margin, return on invested capital. that's why jim hackett's conference call. the tone that he sets, what he tells analysts in a couple of minutes, that will be crucial to what we see happening with ford shares tomorrow. as you take a look at the stock, which really has been beaten town the last couple of months, keep in mind we know a couple of things regarding 2019. one, the european structuring has begun. and two, they are going to have greater losses in 2019 than in 2018 when it comes to their

investments in mobility services and autonomous vehicles. still targeting a commercial launch in 2021 but melissa, those are the two things we know about this year a lot of questions coming up in a few minutes regarding what ford will be doing not only in the first quarter but the remainder of 2019. >> what's your take on the investment community and how much patience they have with jim hackett. he's been ceo almost two years now, and at the same time we've got a very favorable story over at general motors in terms of what they are doing and seeing around the world and then you've got ford. >> reporter: i think that the patience is okay there have been times when there's been less patience in terms of how analysts have felt about jim hackett and ford and their inability to clearly communicate where the company goes from here but you're right, you compare ford with general motors and talk with analysts, it's night and day.

they say you may not agree with mary barra's strategy and question whether general motors will get where her goithey're g, but it's a strategy that you can clearly follow jim hackett has a lot of trust us, we're moving in the right direction, this is where this company is going to go, but they're not giving specifics you know how wall street feels about that. >> yep phil, thanks phil lebeau with the latest on ford 40 has a ford has a 6.9% dividend flow. do you have the patience to stick with this turn-around story? >> again, we just got some numbers on the balance sheet, $7 billion in cash. i think if you look at the company making $1.30 which we know for 2018, detroit auto show they dropped all the bombs they needed to and said we might but we're not expecting to be more profitable in the future they trade on 6.5 times earnings i'm not saying rush out and buy ford but don't tell me there's not a lot of bad news in this

stock. a company that is lagging gm in terms of around its core business but they're getting there. >> i have the potential to win the lotto tonight. it's not going to happen they talk about the potential for a lot of things going forward, none of which are going to happen, respectfully. valuation is compelling. for the last five years on a tape that's been outstanding until recently in an auto space that's been the best ever, ford has gone from the upper left to the lower right. it means the stock has gone down every rally has been a selling opportunity. i think that's what you're seeing here. morgan stanley, who seems to be the ax in the space, ratcheted down numbers majorly for 2001. >> is that a mega ball lottery or a pick six. >> good point. >> the stock is where it is, and we are perhaps on the verge of getting the most detail from jim hackett than we got in the past on this turn-around plan.

>> i don't know if it's mega ball, but i just think that we wanted to get more information, it's not good. we got information. >> you said it before to phil about gm they gave their outlook and guidance for 2019 and the stock popped 8%. it's right where it was two weeks ago, so it can't hold these gains. they're both rolling over. something is going -- and gm is making their money off of selling suvs and trucks, not off of sedans. higher price margin. not a lot more sales. >> let's shift gears -- >> nice. >> tesla shares in reverse today after rbc downgraded the lk a o electric automaker saying the company's lofty valuation is coming to an end also today tesla cutting production numbers for the model s and model x in order to improve efficiency is it time to pump the brakes on the stock? i think that's interesting in

this analyst's call too, i'm sure you read the call is that a lot of things tesla has been doing in recent days, the layoffs, eliminating the lower ending of the x and the s, those are responsible things to do that you want a car company to do to increase efficiencies, but they're being punished for it. >> they're the right things to do, but at the same time everybody focuses all the time and we always have this debate, tech or car company. the reality is all of a sudden if you're looking at production numbers, if you're cutting back, mel, that makes this company something different than what a lot of the folks that are looking at it -- >> the narrative has changed for a lot of the bulls. >> i think it does so now it really depends on what do you view this company as. it depends if you're looking at it as an auto company, which a lot of people still are, of course, i think what they're doing makes sense financially but at the same time i think it makes it very, very difficult going forward because that's what people are looking for can you hit these numbers. i don't think they can with some of the cuts they have made. >> here's what stood out to me

the third quarter of 2018 may have been peak profitability this decade, according to rbc, phil lebeau. it's interesting to see wall street take a turn here. >> reporter: you know, melissa, i think what's interesting is i was reading that report and it is confirming what a lot of people have suspected for some time, or at least it reinforces the belief that some people have had for some time that the metrics surrounding tesla, they need to be brought down. they need to be brought back into a range where people can say, okay, i understand this a little bit more. we're not going to have the linear growth that the bulls expected for some time it doesn't mean that tesla can't grow in the future, but as we talked about before, we are in a lumpy period you are going to see production going up, coming back a little bit, going up, coming back a little bit, and that's to be expected as you see this company go from a niche manufacturer to a slightly bigger niche

manufacturer almost on the verge of being a mass manufacturer. >> all right, thanks, phil phil lebeau in texas for us. now i've good-byed the guest but we shall continue discussing this topic here on the desk. >> that was stealth the way you let him go, brought him back. >> it kept you on your toes. >> tesla has traded between 250 and 350 effectively since the beginning of 2017. it's made more runs on the upside than the downside i've said the last six months you get yourself offsides in the stock and start to stay away, i got myself really offsides a number of times so just stay away the opportunity to buy it lower will presenting itself if it gets there, you buy it at 250. three chips stocks on the move texas instruments, xilinx and lam research. plus pete is stepping up to the plate getting ready to pitch one beaten down industrial stock he says is about to perk up.

that's a hint. find out the name when "fast money" returns

welcome back to "fast

money. earnings season in full swing as reports from some of the biggest companies flood in next week marking the busiest week with everything from apple to facebook, caterpillar and a handful of biotech names set to report pete says there is one beaten down name that is due for a breakout he's at the plasma for his best earnings bet pete, take it away. >> i'm going to throw out there caterpillar. one of the things we've noticed in earnings season so far the last quarter or so and now going into this one is cash is king. everybody loves these cash flow numbers. we saw it today with some of the names that came out. united technology and so forth this is a company that is absolutely in the last two years, free cash flow has more than doubled the first time since 2013, free cash flow has exceeded $5 billion. so that's telling me a lot about how things are going that's the expectation for 2018 in this q4 numbers they put a lot of money into buybacks, and the defensive sivl

which is pretty nie as well. this is a shareholder friendly ceo group. since 1980, this gentleman has been at the company, straight out of college, been there ever since. been in all different aspects but primarily in the energy space. and he had something a couple of years ago where he just said, you know what, we are going to finally focus on growth, we really are they are attacking it and we're seeing growth right now. look at the earnings growth the last couple of quarters. take a look at revenue dprogrowa well trades at 10 to 11 times right now where it is presently. i think there's a lot of reasons to like caterpillar in this market now, there will be an issue with the dollar you take a look at this chart and you can see this big drop. a lot of that was the market itself as it was getting pushed down but also the strength in the dollar is something that will come up i wouldn't be as worried about that i think things will change listening to jonathan as well. this is a company that very easily could return to 150.

>> what do you think about -- these stocks trade off of china trade. these stocks trade off of -- that whole trade complex trades off of china when we've looked at china growth slowing to basic historic lows and we don't know what that real number is, are you nervous about that it's a pretty big number coming from that area anyway. >> there is no doubt just under 50% is in the u.s. but you're right, steve. there is some reason to have some nervousness that's also why i think it trades at the multiple that it does this is a company, like i say, trades at 10, 11 times so it's very inexpensive i think because of that, much of that is already priced into the stock right now. >> hey, pete, i find it curious that you're concerned about the dollar and the effects the trend seems to be in their favor now. the dollar seems to have found kind of a range. couldn't this be a tailwind also for people >> absolutely. no, i agree with you, tim. i'm saying a lot of what we were hearing is pressure because of the dollar now whether it's a tailwind or at least not as big of a factor

in thames of a head wind, i think because of that, yeah, they're going to discuss the dollar because we all know what happened but i think when you're looking forward at this company, you've got to be conscious of what these comments are and are they something they're going to have to worry about this coming year. i think less so than more so. >> let's vote. are you buying pete's pitch on caterpill caterpillar, guy >> we have a crack crew, amanda and kristen, but they taught me things one of the things is this expression they say 100 when you think something is really cool look, i think -- >> what does that mean >> 100%. >> it means i'm behind him 100. >> you say 100% you don't say 100. >> i think the downside is 120 and upside is 150 or 160 i'm with pedro on this one. >> grasso. >> i'm going to say buy but buy into that trade deal as far as the dollar, if china

is talking about zeroing out the trade imbalance, that is going to rally the dollar here so i'd be very concerned after that trade deal gets done. >> that is such need penmanship. i mean really. tim. >> i'm a buyer, pete look, bottom line is this is a company that's already endured a number of eps cuts at 13 publication a share, you guys can do the math on eps. that is not expensive and there's a lot of bad stuff that can go wrong i think you've been compensated at this point. >> buys all around are you at home? you can vote on our poll there's time to vote and we'll reveal the results. plus a new foldable phone in a promotional video. pls cks just another sign of ape'la of innovation we will explain. more "fast money" still ahead. - hello,

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hey, josh. >> melissa, it's the video that has the tech world buzzing xiaomi revealing a new device. check this out at first it looks like your standard, run-of-the-mill tablet, good to reading, maybe surfing the web, but it changes, folding into thirds. you see the left and right sides bending behind the center. so xiaomi isn't alone. we know other tech giants are exploring this same technology for example, you've got samsung. it's been teasing its moves into theed forab theed forab the foldable phone market. they represent radical changes in design and industry players hope will kick start growth. i got up with patrick morehead and he lists some potential challenges for these devices how durable, he asks, are they going to be. will bigger displays drain

battery life will future apps and operating systems work will with them and the price point could be very high, he says, as much as $1,500 it's also why he thinks such phones potentially pose some risk to apple. after all that premium part of the market is exactly where tim cook plays morehead does not expect them to be the first mover in foldable phones that doesn't mean apple couldn't catch up and beat out those first movers as they often have. >> all right, thanks josh lipton with all the details i don't think anybody is saying people will trade in their apple iphones for these foldable phones but this underscores the bear notion that apple hasn't been at the table when it comes to innovation. >> by the way, a chief competitor on price in china is involved in the innovation and apple's bread and butter over the last two quarters has been higher asps. so innovation coming with a

low-end player, that's a challenge for them. >> and you wonder, but this has been apple's story the whole time, mel. they constant lly look at what' out there and make decisions off of that and how they think they can do it better and i'm not putting down apple about innovation, i'm just saying that's the way they have innovated. they have taken a concept and made it somehow better, it seems. because of that, that's why i think they have had the success they have had. now, that was as colonelol a ph- we were looking at that. i had a little drool on one side of my mouth. >> that could create the next cycle for an apple apple has never -- you started off, apple has never been on the forefront. apple has always copied -- >> how about the iphone? what are you guys talking about? this was the smartphone that changed the world. >> blackberry. >> no, no. >> blackberry was the first smartphone that was the first apple nobody would give up their blackberry apple made it better apple made it better

>> they trailed samsung. >> the iphone was not revolutionary. >> it was revolutionary. >> the design, though -- >> are you from the same planet? >> wow what planet are you on, guy? you gave up -- >> luvtron >> brothers from another mother. >> this is what would concern me about apple. you've got a pretty stunning rally over the broader market. tim talks about it all the time, up 13%ish over the last 18 days, that's somewhat accurate apple has rallied from that 142.5, 143 low but hasn't ratcheted higher obviously the guidance they gave was concerning, but i would have expected more of a bounce. me being from the planet luvtron would have expected a far greater bounce. coming up, chips on a rip in the after hours. texas instruments, xilinx and lam all higher plus one better just bet $2

million that this dow stock could surge after reports earnings this week we are live from the nasdaq in times square much more "fast money" still ahead. and last year, i earned $36,000 in cash back. which i used to offer health insurance to my employees. what's in your wallet? first tattoo? yeah relax, amigo, it's gonna look ok. only ok? no worries boss, i'm one of the tattoo artists in the city. uh, aren't you supposed to draw it first? stay in your lane, bro. just ok is not ok. especially when it comes to your network. at&t is america's best wireless network, according to america's biggest test. now with 5g e. plus...buy a samsung galaxy s9 and get one free. only at at&t.

welcome back to "fast money. we've got an earnings alert.

xilinx, texas instruments all higher after earnings reports. the move is lifting the emf that tracks the group guy, remember, fast pitched xilinx on december 3rd. >> i don't know about fast pitched but i know we went over to that smart board. i got smoked it was like -- it was like -- i could pitch puppy dogs and it would be 75-25. >> how do you get the baby crying for that. >> it's not a baby crying. >> there it is >> i'll say this now all of a sudden you watch over the next couple of days, and there are two days left this week, i believe, you'll see a lot of analysts start to upgrade this name. yes, valuation is rich we talked about it on the power pitch. look at their margins, look at their guidance, look at their revenue beat and eps beat. >> look how he hedges himself on the days left in the week. >> i think there's two. >> on luvtron maybe there's a

different number of days in the week. >> if there's a rip across the board, do you sell that? >> semis are not going to get away from you, whether it's inventory, demand, data center, you and a quarter it this is very constructive for a market that wants to continue to have momentum. >> tim mentioned intel that report is tomorrow after the bell the stock is up 7% since the december lows. the options market is predicting the rally has plenty of room to run. mike joins us from san francisco to break down the action hey, mike. >> hi there. intel, which already trades a lot of options daily on average, traded more than double its average daily call volume. over 100,000 contracts traded in total. it's implying a move of 5% and that's in line with the 4.5% it typically moves on average after earnings where we saw a lot of that activity, somebody was rolling some large bullish bets. they ended up selling about 5,000 of the february calls and the april calls to buy 10,000 of the july 52.5 calls.

they spent $1.85 for those so they need the stock to be above $54.35 for that to be profitable presumably they're setting it will be much higher than that. that's a commitment of a pretty substantial amount of premium too, almost $2 million. >> pete, you probably saw this stock. >> i'm long the stock, i'm not long calls anymore i love the stock and would love to sell calls against it at some point in time. intel is far more diverse than just memory, it's got all these other areas it's trying to move. still got to get a ceo one of these days. we've been talking about this for months and months and months i would love for them to settle on who are they going to get as a ceo of this company. >> and that would be a catalyst presumably >> if they hire the right guy. >> back to xilinx. >> would you rather? jinx i will allow you to talk to answer the question. >> you have to say my name three times. >> guy, guy, guy.

>> i hear what pedro said. i think intel will grind higher. i think xilinx could explode higher given the parameters of that game, i would say xilinx. >> mike, thanks for the action for options action check out the full show friday 5:30 eastern time. up next, final trades. i don't know what's going on. i've done all sorts of research, read earnings reports, looked at chart patterns. i've even built my own historic trading model. and you're still not sure if you want to make the trade? exactly. sounds like a case of analysis paralysis. is there a cure? td ameritrade's trade desk. they can help gut check your strategies and answer all your toughest questions. sounds perfect. see, your stress level was here and i got you down to here, i've done my job. call for a strategy gut check with td ameritrade. ♪

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you know what pete listens to when he's in minnesota riding around on that tractor letting the freedom flag fly unbreak my heart because america is not buying his pitch on caterpillar. but it's probably the closest we've had in a poll in a very long time. 64% of you said no. >> oh, my god. that's the closest >> that's the closest we had in a long time. >> let me tell you something, i'll dance around on that all day. >> final trade time. >> amoran. i think it goes higher. >> the ultimate support for the remix is that i'm actually picking caterpillar based on valuation and the fact that i think we priced in a lot of bad news pete could have done a better job but i like the job. >> that's not true. >> mcdonald's. potential to break out right near incredible upside.

>> that was mine. >> yesterday's. >> they're making a coming to america. it's not a remake. xilinx when there are three digits on that sucker tomorrow, remember i told you so. >> that does it for us see you tomorrow at 5:00 "mad money" starts right now my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now >> hey, i'm cramer, welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica i am trying to make you money, my job is to entertain, teach and put things in context so call or tweet me @ jimcramer. you know who wins on a day like today where the averaging see saw back and for